美联储在凯文·沃什领导下的可能变革

上周晚些时候，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布了下一任美联储主席的人选。

Late last week, US president Donald Trump announced his pick for the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

这个人是凯文·沃什。

That person is Kevin Worsch.

沃什的职业生涯一直横跨华尔街和政策圈，曾一度担任美联储理事会理事。

Worsch throughout his career has straddled both Wall Street and policy circles, and at one time was a member of the Fed Board of Governors.

但他也对现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔领导下的央行运作方式提出了质疑，而鲍威尔的任期即将结束

But he's also challenged the way the central bank is being run under current chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends

在今年五月。

in May.

沃什或许因担任美联储理事而声名鹊起，但自他离开美国中央银行后，已成为一位重要的批评者。

Walsh may have risen to prominence as a Fed governor, but since he left the US Central Bank, he's emerged as a major critic.

如今他即将接替鲍威尔担任这一最高职位，我们对他的施政方针将如何与以往不同充满疑问。

Now that he's about to succeed Powell in the top role, we have quite a lot of questions about how he intends to do the job differently.

如果沃什获得参议院确认，这将对美联储的未来和美国货币政策意味着什么？

If Warsh is confirmed by the Senate, what will that mean for the future of the Fed and US monetary policy?

《金融时报》美国经济编辑克莱尔·琼斯一直密切关注这一任命过程。

The Feet's US economics editor, Claire Jones, has been following this selection process closely.

今天节目里，我要和她聊聊所有这些内容。

I'm gonna talk with her about all of that on today's show.

我是米凯拉·廷达拉，欢迎收听《幕后财经》。

I'm Michela Tindara, and this is Behind the Money.

你好，克莱尔。

Hi, Claire.

欢迎来到节目。

Welcome to the show.

你好，麦凯拉。

Hi, McKellar.

很高兴能来。

Pleasure to be here.

是的。

Yeah.

很高兴你能来。

So glad to have you.

克莱尔，你多年来一直为《金融时报》追踪这一过程，等待特朗普总统选定人选，这整个过程感觉如何？

Claire, tracking this process for the Feet and waiting to see who president Trump is going to select over the past several months, what's that all been like?

嗯，特朗普在第二任期内的大部分时间里，一直在猛烈抨击美国央行。

Well, Trump has spent the majority of his second term really having a bash at the US Central Bank.

这位美国总统希望利率远低于当前水平。

The US president has wanted interest rates to really be a lot lower than they are at the moment.

他说利率应该降到1%。

He said they ought to be at 1%.

这导致现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一直遭受美国总统的猛烈攻击，也让人对下一任美联储主席人选将如何影响央行的独立性感到忧虑。

What that's resulted in is that the current chair, Jerome Powell, has faced some really ferocious barbs from The US president, And that's led to the sense that there's been a cloud hanging over this whole appointments process as to what the next pick to chair the Fed is gonna mean for the central bank's independence.

因此，当我们看到特朗普周五选中了凯文·沃尔什时，感到相当欣慰，因为从很多方面来看，他是一位相当传统的候选人。

So it was quite relieving that we saw Trump on Friday pick Kevin Walsh, who in many senses is a rather orthodox candidate for the job.

是的。

Yeah.

能跟我讲讲凯文·沃尔什吗？

Tell me a little bit about Kevin Walsh.

你说他是个相当正统的人选。

You say he's a quite orthodox pick.

他曾经在小布什政府时期担任经济政策特别助理。

He's also served as a special assistant for economic policy back in George W.

布什政府时期。

Bush's administration.

但你对他背景还知道些什么？

But what else do you know about his background?

正如你所说，他曾为小布什工作。

As you say, he's worked for George W.

他为布什工作过。

Bush.

他在华盛顿特区及更广泛的政界和政策圈内人脉广泛。

He's very well connected in political circles and in policy making circles here in DC and beyond.

他在金融市场上也人脉广泛。

He's also very well connected in financial markets.

凯文·沃尔什在2006年加入美联储时崭露头角，当时本·伯南克担任主席，他在2008年全球金融危机期间与伯南克及其他高层官员密切合作。

Kevin Walsh rose to prominence when he joined the Fed in 2006 when Ben Bernanke was chair, and he worked very, very closely with Bernanke and other top officials during the global financial crisis of two thousand and eight.

在那场危机中，沃尔什被视为在华尔街投资者与美联储高层官员（如本·伯南克）之间发挥关键桥梁作用的人，而伯南克等人则主导了制定政策，帮助美国经济和金融体系在自大萧条以来最严重的动荡中保持稳定。

During that crisis, Walsh is seen as having played a vital role in serving as a conduit between investors on Wall Street and the brains of senior Fed officials such as Ben Bernanke, who played a role of devising the policies that helped keep The US economy and US financial markets on track during some of the worst turmoil that we'd seen since the Great Depression.

因此，总体而言，他在美联储任职期间留下了非常好的印象。

So overall, he made a very good impression during his time at the Fed.

从这个角度看，他显然是担任央行行长的强有力人选。

And in that sense, looks like quite a strong candidate to be the central bank chair.

去年早些时候，凯文·沃尔什似乎是最有可能被选为下一任美联储主席的人选。

Now earlier last year, it seemed like Kevin Walsh was going to be the most likely pick to be the next Fed chair.

但后来出现了一些疑虑，风向转而偏向了另一位候选人凯文·哈塞特。

But then there were some doubts that cropped up, and the pendulum swung toward another candidate, Kevin Hassett.

那么，为什么特朗普最终选择了沃什呢？

So why did Trump eventually end up going with Worsch?

我觉得这是个非常有趣的问题。

I think it's a very interesting question.

长期以来，人们普遍认为特朗普会挑选一位亲密盟友担任这一职位，而他确实非常了解沃什。

For a long time, the sense was that Trump would pick a close ally for the job while he does know Wash very well.

最接近特朗普的候选人是凯文·哈塞特，他目前担任白宫国家经济委员会主任。

The candidate who was closest to Trump was Kevin Hassett, who's currently the director of the National Economic Council at the White House.

但我认为有两个因素导致哈塞特退出了竞选，从而为沃什打开了机会。

However, I think two factors led to Hassett falling out the race and it really opening up for Walsh.

一是华尔街的投资者对哈塞特并不热衷。

One was that investors on Wall Street weren't that keen on Hassett.

他们认为他与特朗普总统关系过于紧密。

They saw him as being too close to president Trump.

考虑到特朗普在贸易政策和超低利率议程上的激进立场，人们担心哈塞特会损害美联储的独立性。

And given how aggressive Trump has been in terms of Trumpet and an agenda of ultra low interest rates, there were concerns that Hassett would damage the Fed's independence.

然而，真正终结哈塞特竞选前景的是，司法部开始对杰伊·鲍威尔展开调查的消息曝光。

However, what really killed Hassett's chances was when it emerged that the Department of Justice was conducting a probe into Jay Powell.

当时我们看到的是强烈的反弹，包括来自共和党参议员对特朗普试图削弱美联储独立性的抵制。

What we saw then was a real backlash, including from Republican senators against Trump's attempts to undermine the Fed's independence.

当时人们普遍认为，哈塞特根本无法通过参议院的确认程序。

And there was the sense then that Hassett just wouldn't make it through a senate confirmation process.

在那之后，特朗普表示他希望让哈塞特继续留在白宫身边。

After that occurred, Trump suggested he wanted to keep Hassett close to him in the White House.

随后，人们明显感觉到沃尔什的胜算大大增加了。

And then you really got the sense that Walsh's chances had risen quite substantially.

那么投资者对沃尔什的任命有何反应？

So how are investors receiving the news of Walsh's appointment?

到目前为止，从投资者的反应来看，我认为有一种如释重负的感觉。

What we've seen so far from the investor reaction is I think an element of relief.

人们确实担心特朗普会挑选一个会严重威胁美联储独立性的人，这个人进入美联储后只会听命于白宫，强行推动降息，而其他委员会成员可能并不认同，最终导致央行陷入严重 dysfunction。

There were real concerns that Trump would choose someone who would really threaten the independence of the Fed by going in there and just doing the White House's bidding and trying to force through interest rate cuts, which other committee members might not have agreed with and, you know, lead into a really dysfunctional central bank.

我认为，选择沃尔什意味着他是个相对主流的候选人。

I think with Walsh, the feeling is that he is a relatively mainstream pick.

他在金融危机期间有在美联储工作的经验。

He had the experience with the Fed during the financial crisis.

在某种程度上，他是一个为人所熟知的人选。

He's a known quantity in some respect.

我认为市场仍在摸索如何真正做好这份工作，但我认为他们对特朗普选择了一个相对主流的人选感到松了一口气。

I think markets are still trying to work out exactly how we do the job, but I think they are relieved that Trump's gone for someone who is relatively mainstream.

正如你所说，克莱尔，沃什在美联储2008年应对危机中发挥了重要作用。

Now as you said, Claire, Warsh was pretty instrumental in the Fed's 2008 crisis response.

但自从他2011年离开美联储理事职位后，他就一直对央行持批评态度。

But since he left his position of Fed governor in 2011, he's been critical of the central bank.

为什么会这样？

Why is that?

这并不是凯文·沃什第一次竞逐美联储主席职位。

So this isn't the first time that Kevin Walsh has run for the job of Fed chair.

他曾在2017年面试过这个职位，但未能成功，最终由鲍威尔获得了该职位。

He interviewed for the role back in 2017 but missed out, and it went to Powell instead.

从那以后，他花了大量时间激烈地批评美联储，而且在许多美联储人士看来，这种批评相当不公平。

Now since then, he spent an awful lot of time attacking the Fed very vocally and with some strength and in the view of a lot of people within the Fed today, rather unfairly too.

在我看来，回顾最近几年，无论出于何种目的和理由，央行过度干预经济领域，都导致了宏观经济政策执行中的系统性错误。

In my view, as we think back over the most recent period of years, forays far afield, for all seasons and all reasons and with the best of intentions, have led to systematic errors in the conduct of macroeconomic policy.

美联储如今的行为更像一个综合性政府机构，而不是我担任央行官员之前那种职能狭窄的中央银行。

The Fed has acted more as a general purpose agency of our government than a narrow central bank that preceded my days as a central banker.

沃尔什提出的许多批评都集中在美联储的资产负债表上。

A lot of the criticisms that Walsh has made has focused on the Fed's balance sheet.

自全球金融危机以来，美联储购买了大量政府债券，导致其资产负债表规模从不到1万亿美元膨胀至峰值接近9万亿美元，增长速度非常迅速。

Since the global financial crisis, the Fed's been buying a lot of mostly government bonds, and that's meant the balance sheet has expanded from under $1,000,000,000,000 to, at its peak, somewhere close to $9,000,000,000,000, which is quite a rapid expansion.

是的，让我们来详细分析一下。

Well, yeah, let's unpack that a bit.

当我们谈论资产负债表时，指的是美联储所拥有的资产和负债。

When we're talking about the balance sheet here, that's what the Federal Reserve owns, so it's assets and liabilities.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

That's correct.

中央银行持有的主要资产是政府债券。

And the the main asset that central banks hold is government bonds.

在全球金融危机之前，中央银行的资产负债表并没有发挥那么重要的作用。

Now prior to the global financial crisis, central banks' balance sheets didn't play that important a role.

然而，在金融危机期间以及随后的几十年里，资产负债表已成为央行所谓的货币政策工具箱中极其重要的一部分。

However, during the financial crisis and then in the decades that followed, balance sheets have become an enormous part of what central bankers refer to as their monetary policy toolkit.

我们看到美联储大规模购买政府债券，这一过程被称为量化宽松，其他中央银行也纷纷效仿。

What we've seen emerge is mass government bond buying by the Fed, a process known as quantitative easing, which other central banks have followed too.

这项政策最初的目标是确保金融体系的安全。

The aim of this policy originally was to keep the financial system secure.

它也被视为有助于维持通胀和经济增长相对稳定的一种手段。

It's also being seen as something which can help keep inflation and economic growth reasonably stable too.

然而，资产负债表使用的普及意味着，根据沃什的说法，资产负债表已经变得过于臃肿。

However, what the popularity of using the balance sheet has meant is that balance sheets have, according to WASH, become bloated.

如今资产负债表已回落至约6.6万亿美元，但仍然比以前大得多。

The balance sheet now is back down to about $6,600,000,000,000 but it's still a lot larger than it was.

从沃尔什那里得到的印象是，他非常希望在担任美联储主席期间，花大量时间缩小资产负债表，使其恢复到2008年全球金融危机前的规模。

The sense that we've got from Walsh is that he really wants to spend a lot of his time as Fed chair, making the balance sheet smaller and getting it back closer to that pre two thousand and eight global financial crisis size.

因此，美联储在金融危机后花了多年时间购买债券，也就是实施量化宽松政策。

So the Fed spent many years buying up bonds, aka pursuing quantitative easing after the financial crisis.

为什么沃尔什认为这是个问题？

Why does Worsch think that that's a problem?

我认为沃尔什确实认为，美联储在2008年全球金融危机后的几年里，已经偏离了其应有的职责。

I think Worsch really sees the Fed as having strayed past its proper mandate in the years following the global financial crisis.

但美联储通过资产负债表购买美国国债，使各国政府得以采取行动，导致赤字扩大，进而促使政府支出超过了原本会有的水平。

But the Fed used the balance sheet to buy US government bonds, which enabled governments to take actions which led to bigger deficits, which led to governments into spending more than they would have otherwise done.

他认为，美国政府大规模购买国债的行为，让国会得以逃避责任。

He thinks that all The US government bond buy in has let congress off the hook.

这削弱了政治家们在财政支出上承受的压力。

It's stopped politicians being under pressure to manage spending.

他认为，央行已经超出了货币政策的范畴，进入了更像是政治家主导的领域，也就是财政政策。

He sees it as the central bank has strayed beyond monetary policy into territory that seem more as the domain of politicians that seem as more like fiscal policy, if you like.

不过，这种观点并不是所有经济学家都认同的。

Now, this isn't exactly a take that every economist agrees with.

批评者对这种看法有什么说法？

What do critics say about this view?

很多人会说，尤其是在金融危机期间，购买债券对于维持金融市场的稳定是必要的。

A lot of people will say that especially during the financial crisis, the bond buying was necessary to keep financial markets stable.

不仅如此，还能真正阻止经济陷入可能引发第二次大萧条的衰退。

And not only that, to really stop the economy falling into the sort of recession that could have resulted in a second great depression.

当时美联储的负责人是本·伯南克，他是一位研究此领域的学者，曾撰写大量文献，指出购买政府债务可以防止金融危机对就业和增长造成严重冲击。

The Fed was also headed at the time by Ben Bernanke, who was a scholar in this matter, who'd written an awful lot to suggest that buying government debt would prevent a financial crisis resulting in a very serious impact on jobs and growth.

所以，如果你今天与许多美联储官员交谈，他们会认为利用资产负债表有助于将通胀维持在他们希望的低而稳定的水平上。

So if you speak to a lot of Fed officials today, they see the use of the balance sheet as something which can be used to keep inflation on track close to the sorts of low and stable levels that they like to see.

所以克莱尔·沃肖说，他希望美联储实现一次‘体制变革’。

So Claire Warshaw said that he wants a, quote, regime change at the Fed.

现在我明白，这部分与资产负债表的缩减有关。

Now I see that part of that will have to do with the shrinking of the balance sheet.

但他还想改变什么？

But what else is he looking to change?

沃尔什提出的一个批评是，美联储确实需要进行一场根本性的改革。

So one of the criticisms Walsh has had is that the Fed really needs to undergo quite a fundamental overhaul.

但我们并不确切知道他指的是什么。

We don't know exactly what he means by that.

我们知道，我们希望改革的一个方面是将资产负债表作为货币政策工具的使用。

We know one element that we would like to see overhauled is the use of the balance sheet as a monetary policy tool.

我们还知道，他希望重新审视美联储与美国财政部之间的关系。

We also know that he'd like to revisit the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury.

我认为，这可能是吸引美国财政部长斯科特·贝桑特的因素之一。

Now I think this may be one of the factors that appeal to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant.

贝桑特也表示，作为财政部长，他也希望审查美联储的治理方式。

Bessant has also suggested that as US Treasury Secretary, he'd also like to review how the Fed is governed.

我认为美联储应该能够独立制定货币政策。

I believe that the Fed should be able to set monetary policy on an independent basis.

但他们使命范围的扩张越多，就越会威胁到其独立性。

But the more creep we see within their mission, then the more it threatens their independence.

沃尔什和贝森似乎都主张为央行设定更狭窄的职责，并将部分权力移交财政部。

Both Walsh and Bessen seem to have an idea of having a narrower mandate for the central bank and handing some powers over to Treasury.

这在实际操作中会是什么样子呢？

Exactly what that would look like in practice?

嗯，我认为没人知道。

Well, I don't think anyone knows.

具体细节尚未公布，但我们知道他认同贝森的观点，即美国中央银行的治理结构需要改革。

The details aren't really out there, but we know that he shares Besson's view that there needs to be changes in the governance of the US Central Bank.

在商业中，正如在科学中一样，创新始于想象力的火花。

In business as in science, innovation begins with a spark of imagination.

它因抱负而成长，并在那些挑战现状的人身上闪耀出最耀眼的光芒。

It grows with ambition and shines brightest in those who challenge the status quo.

在帝国商学院，创新不是被教授的。

At Imperial Business School, innovation isn't taught.

它定义了我们。

It's what defines us.

这就是为什么我们在QS世界排名中位列第二。

That's why we're number two in the QS world rankings.

你将与科技、工程和医学领域的杰出人才一起学习商业，激发创意，为未来的领导者开辟道路。

You'll study business alongside brilliant minds in technology, engineering, and medicine to spark ideas and shape pathways for the leaders of tomorrow.

搜索帝国商学院，科学即商业。

Search Imperial Business School, where science means business.

所以，克莱尔，我们来谈谈绝对是货币政策一部分且属于美联储工具箱的内容——利率设定。

So, Claire, let's talk about something that's definitely a part of monetary policy and in the Fed's toolkit, and that is setting rates.

特朗普总统一直公开表示，他认为利率应该低于鲍威尔设定的水平。

President Trump has been very vocal about how he thinks interest rates should be lower than where Powell's been setting them.

那么，我们对沃什的打算有什么了解吗？

So do we have a sense for what Warsh wants to do?

沃什像其他所有竞聘这一职位的人一样，表示他会在短期内降息。

Warsh, like every other candidate that's gone for this job, has said he would cut rates in the short term.

因此，我们明确知道他希望利率低于当前水平。

So we definitely know he wants interest rates lower than they are at the moment.

然而，他为这一立场提供的经济理由，未必能得到美联储其他利率决策者的认同。

However, the economic rationale he's provided for that isn't necessarily gonna be agreed upon among the other rate setters at the Fed.

好的。

Okay.

所以短期内降低利率。

So lower rates in the short term.

但你知道沃什对美国经济整体走势的看法吗？

But do you know where Warsh thinks The US economy is heading more broadly?

他明确表示，他认为我们将迎来一场由人工智能驱动的生产率跃升，这将为降息铺平道路，因为美国经济能够在不引发通胀的情况下扩大产出。

Well, one thing he's been very clear about is that he thinks we're gonna get an AI induced productivity boom, and that's gonna pave the way for interest rate cuts because The US economy is able to expand output without triggering inflation.

然而，他并不是唯一决定美国利率的人。

However, he's not the only person setting US interest rates.

联邦公开市场委员会是负责设定美国借贷成本的机构，除了主席之外，还有11名投票成员，沃什需要说服他们接受这一观点。

The Federal Open Market Committee, which is the body that sets borrowing costs in The US, has another 11 voting members besides the chair that Walsh will need to convince of that view.

沃什可能打算采取一种更具前瞻性的方法，更多地从供给侧角度分析经济走向，并努力促使其他美国利率决策者基于这一观点做出决定。

What Walsh is probably going to look to do is to have a more forward looking approach and have a more kind of supply side driven view of what's going to happen to the economy and try to ensure that other US rate setters make decisions on the basis of that.

回顾过去，从鲍威尔往前看，他们的前任们，这种做法与其他前任美联储主席相比如何？

Well, looking back into the past, you know, beyond Powell to their predecessors, how does that approach compare to other former Fed chairs?

我们还不知道沃什确切会采取什么立场，但值得回顾一下前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘在上世纪九十年代末的做法。

We still don't know what approach Walsh is going to take exactly, but it's worth looking at what former Fed chair Alan Greenspan did during the late nineties.

当时，格林斯潘非常确信我们将迎来一场生产率提升浪潮，并希望基于这一判断，将利率维持在联邦公开市场委员会其他成员认为偏高的水平之下。

At that period in time, Greenspan was rather convinced that we'd see a productivity boom and wanted to keep interest rates lower than some of the others on the Federal Open Market Committee on the basis of that.

他成功之处在于，通过对数据的解读表明，尽管这些迹象并未体现在 headline figures 中，但确实存在生产率提升正在发生的迹象，这使他成功说服了委员会多数成员采取观望态度，保持利率相对较低。

Now what he managed to do was rely on an interpretation of the data to show that while it wasn't necessarily in the headline figures, there was a suggestion that the productivity boom was taking place, which enabled him to really persuade the majority of the committee to wait and see and keep interest rates relatively low.

因此，沃什可能采取的做法与格林斯潘当年的做法存在相似之处。

So there is a parallel there in terms of what Walsh might do and what Greenspan did.

然而，我想强调的是，沃什仍需找到切实支持他观点的数据，证明我们正站在由人工智能驱动的生产率提升浪潮的门槛上。

However, what I would stress is that what Warsh still needs to do is to find the data that really supports his view that we are on the cusp of an AI induced productivity boom.

除非他这么做，否则我认为其他联邦公开市场委员会成员不会真正接受他的观点。

Unless he does that, I don't think you're going to get the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee really buying into his argument.

从格林斯潘时代的情况来看，如果他想做到这一点，并非不可能。

And the evidence from the Greenspan era is that if he wants to do that, it isn't impossible.

但他必须以非常谨慎、分析性的方式阐述他的论点。

But he'll have to present his case in a very measured, analytical way.

沃什能够实现他想要的任何改变的可能性有多大？

How likely is it that, Worsch is able to make any of the changes that he wants to?

作为美联储主席，他究竟拥有多少实权？

How much power does he really have in his role as chair of the Fed?

关于人工智能驱动的生产率提升这一论点，我认为如果他采取以数据为导向的方法，是有可能取得进展的。

On the arguments for an AI induced productivity boom, I think he could make some headway there if he takes a a data led approach.

我觉得他在资产负债表问题上会遇到更大的困难。

I feel like where he'll find it more difficult is on the balance sheet.

正如我们之前提到的，美联储一直在缩减其资产负债表。

The Fed, as we mentioned earlier, has been shrinking its balance sheet.

然而，联邦公开市场委员会最近已暂停了资产负债表的进一步收缩。

However, the Federal Open Market Committee has recently paused that tightening of the the balance sheet.

他们这样做的原因是货币市场出现了动荡迹象，表明这一举措正在引发金融不稳定。

And the reason they did that was because there were signs of tremors in money markets and signs that it was causing financial instability.

因此，我认为在短期内，他们不太可能进一步缩减资产负债表。

So I think they're going to be quite reluctant to shrink the balance sheet more in the shorter term.

是的。

Yeah.

这是个很好的观点。

That's a great point.

克莱尔，沃什有可能无法获得参议院确认吗？

Claire, is there any chance that Warsh is not confirmed by the senate?

这种情况发生的可能性有多大？

How likely does this look?

如果我们目前所处的环境不是这样——特朗普政府一直公开抨击美联储，而总统本人也一再大声呼吁大幅降息的话。

If we weren't in the environment that we're in at the moment where the Trump administration had been so vocal in its attacks against the Fed and the president himself have been so, so vocal in calling for these massive decreases in interest rates.

我认为沃尔什会顺利通过。

I think Walsh would sail through.

他有相关经验。

He's got the experience.

他与国会关系密切。

He's got the links with the hill.

然而，考虑到我们目前的环境，我认为沃尔什的确认过程将会非常艰难。

However, given the environment we're in, I think it's gonna be a pretty grueling confirmation here and for Walsh too.

最终，我认为他会通过参议院的确认，但在过程中他会面临一些严峻的问题。

Now, ultimately, I think he is gonna get through the Senate, but he's gonna face some pretty tough questions on the way.

我们知道，来自北卡罗来纳州的共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯仍不愿让特朗普提名的任何一位美联储候选人通过参议院，除非针对鲍威尔的调查被撤销。

We know Tom Tillis, the Republican senator for North Carolina, is still reluctant to allow any one of Trump's candidates for the Fed to move through the Senate until the probe against Powell is dropped.

因此，这里仍然存在障碍。

So there are still barriers here.

是的。

Mhmm.

那么，克莱尔，在你继续报道这件事时，你会关注哪些方面呢？

And what will you be watching for, Claire, as you continue to report on this?

我之前几次问你，沃施对这件事的计划是什么，你提到过几次。

You've said a few times when I've asked you, you know, what's Worsch's plan for this?

答案是我们目前还不知道。

The answer is we don't know yet.

所以我们一定会关注。

So We'll absolutely.

是的。

Yeah.

你会关注哪些方面呢？

What will you be watching for?

我想就这些了。

I think that's it.

我的意思是，正如你所说，我们有一个候选人，我们谈到了政权更迭，也谈到了对资产负债表的一些重大措施。

I mean, as you've said, we've got a candidacy, we've talked about regime change, we've talked about some big measures to the balance sheet.

我们真正关注的是细节，我认为另一点是这些资产负债表政策本身。

What we're really on the lookout for is detail and I think the other thing is just a lot of these balance sheet policies.

它们听起来像是至少在长期内会推高借贷成本的措施。

They sound like the sorts of things that would raise borrowing costs at least in the longer term.

我认为很多人试图调和沃尔什关于资产负债表的言论与他短期内降息的意愿之间的矛盾。

And I think a lot of people are trying to square what Walsh is saying about the balance sheet with his desire to cut interest rates in the short term.

所以我认为人们只是想听他本人明确说明，他究竟想在美联储改变什么，以及他将如何实际推进这些改变。

So I think people just want to hear from him himself for him to really kind of say less about, you know, what he'd like to change at the Fed and how he's actually gonna go about doing it.

克莱尔，非常感谢你参加这档节目。

Claire, thanks so much for coming on the show.

一点也不麻烦。

No problem at all.

《金钱背后》由我米凯拉·廷达拉主持。

Behind the Money is hosted by me, Michela Tindara.

本集由我和萨菲亚·埃夫梅德制作。

This episode was produced by me and Safiya Efmed.

事实核查由西蒙·格里夫斯负责。

Fact checking by Simon Greaves.

音效设计与混音由萨姆·乔维nko负责。

Sound design and mixing by Sam Giovinko.

原创音乐由汉尼斯·布朗创作。

Original music is by Hannes Brown.

托弗·福赫兹是我们的执行制片人。

Topher Forhez is our executive producer.

切丽尔·布雷姆利是Feet全球音频负责人。

Cheryl Brumley is the Feet's global head of audio.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

在商业中，正如在科学中，创新始于想象力的火花。

In business as in science, innovation begins with a spark of imagination.

它在抱负中成长，并在那些挑战现状的人身上闪耀出最耀眼的光芒。

It grows with ambition and shines brightest in those who challenge the status quo.

在帝国商学院，创新不是被教授的。

At Imperial Business School, innovation isn't taught.

它就是我们的本质。

It's what defines us.

这就是为什么我们在QS世界排名中位列第二。

That's why we're number two in the QS world rankings.

你将与科技、工程和医学领域的杰出人才一起学习商业，激发创意，为未来的领导者铺就道路。

You'll study business alongside brilliant minds in technology, engineering, and medicine to spark ideas and shape pathways for the leaders of tomorrow.

搜索帝国商学院，科学即商业。

Search Imperial Business School, where science means business.

我是罗布·阿姆斯特朗。

I'm Rob Armstrong.

我是凯蒂·马丁。

And I'm Katie Martin.

我们共同打造了《Unhedged》播客。

And together, we make the Unhedged Podcast.

罗布，自从你九月份说你做空黄金以来，黄金价格已经翻了一倍。

Rob, since you said in September that you were short gold, it has doubled in price.

天啊。

God.

所以听众们，当我们说这个节目不是投资建议时，我们指的是凯蒂。

So listeners, when we say this show is not investment advice, we mean Katie.

这真的不是投资建议。

It is not investment advice.

我们真该在《Unhedged》办公室挂块牌子，纪念我对黄金的判断有多错。

There are we ought to put up a plaque in the Feet offices to how wrong I have been about gold.

《Unhedged》，来自《金融时报》。

Unhedged from the Financial Times.

在你听播客的任何平台都可以收听。

Get it wherever it is you get podcasts.