2024年下午场-BRK年度股东大会

但那只是其中一种交易。

But that was one sort of deal.

随着时间的推移，各种不同的事件发生了，你知道，Icon公司加入了，我是说，有无数可能性。

And then as time passed, all the kinds of different events happened and, you know, icon came in and there I mean, there are million nation.

一开始根本无法预测。

Couldn't predict at the start.

我在过程中形成了一些观点，但随后又不断学到更多。

And and I formed certain opinions as I went along, but then a, learned more as I went along.

后来当我听到投资者说Buggy参与时，这件事让我把线索串联起来了。

And then at at a point when I heard an investor call that Buggy was on, It it it put things together for me in a way.

这并不意味着我确信能成功或类似的事。

It didn't mean I knew I had a sure thing or anything like that.

我不知道明年油价会是多少。

I don't know what the price of oil was gonna be next year.

但我知道这是需要采取行动的事，所以我们行动了。

But I knew that it was something to act on, so we did.

我们很高兴我们这么做了，而且我们仍然不知道明年油价会是多少，也没人知道。

And we're very happy we did, and we still don't know what the price of oil is gonna be next year and nobody does.

但我认为概率很大，虽然不保证，但这是一个好的决策。

But but I think it the odds are very good that it was in but not a cinch that it was a good decision.

而且我们还有权购买更多股票。

And, you know, we've got options to buy more stock.

而且你知道，当我们完成时，这可能对伯克希尔来说是一项值得的投资，我们参与其中，并且我们会长期持有。

And and, you know, when we get through with it, we could it could be a worthwhile investment for for Berkshire, and and we're in it, and we're under for keeps.

我们持有的其他资产并非永久持有。

And there are other things that we own that we aren't in for keeps.

不过，顺便说一句，既然外界对此有猜测，我该澄清一下。

But, oh, incidentally, I I should just throw this out since there's been speculation on it.

派拉蒙的出售决策完全由我一人负责。

We've sold a, I was a 100% responsible for the Paramount decision.

我看到有猜测说泰德或托德与此事有关。

I read speculation that that either Ted or Todd had some involvement of that.

不是。

No.

那完全是我的决定。

It was a 100% my decision.

而且，我们全部抛售后亏损了不少钱，这在投资行业也是常有的事。

And, we sold it all and we lost quite a bit of money and and and that happens in this business too.

但实际持有派拉蒙的经历让我思考得更深入了。

But, actually owning Paramount, made me think even further.

我喜欢深入思考，现在我更会仔细审视人们如何支配闲暇时间，以及经营任何娱乐产业——无论是体育还是电影等行业的核心原则。

I like to think deeper, but I certainly want to look harder even about about the whole question of what people do with their leisure time and and, you know, what the governing principles are of running an entertainment business of any sort, whether it's sports or movies or whatever it might be.

我觉得自己比一两年前更明智了，但同时也更穷了，因为我以这种方式获得了认知。

And I think I'm smarter now than I was a year or two couple years ago, but I also think I'm poor because I acquired the knowledge and the manner I did.

但我想明确两点：第一，我们在派拉蒙上亏损了；第二，各位，这完全是我个人的决策。

But, if it if I just wanna be very clear that that, a, we lost money on Paramount and, b, you know, I did it all by myself, folks.

不知道我是否预判了贝基要问的问题，我们很快就会知道答案。

I don't know whether I've anticipated one of Becky's questions now, but we will we will find out.

让我想想。

Let's see.

现在轮到你了。

Now you yeah.

下一个是你，贝基。

You're next, Becky.

对。

Yep.

是的。

Yes.

你确实预见到了其中一个问题。

You did anticipate one of the questions.

我们来看下一个问题吧。

Let's go to another one.

这个问题来自德国慕尼黑的文森特·詹姆斯。

This, this question comes from Vincent James in Munich, Germany.

在董事长的信中，沃伦指出BNSF的利润率相对于其他五家铁路公司有所下滑。

In the chairman's letter, Warren points out that the profit margins for BNSF have slipped relative to all five other railroads.

然而沃伦在信中评论道，BNSF的货运量比其他五大铁路公司都大，资本支出也更多，并且拥有无与伦比的广阔服务区域。

However, Warren comments in the letter, BNSF carries more freight and spends more on capital expenditures than any of the other five major railroads and has a vast service territory second to none.

鉴于沃伦对BNSF明显优势的评价，如何解释其收入和利润的下降，特别是相对于其他五家铁路公司的利润率下滑？

Given the comments from Warren about the clear strengths of BNSF, what explains the decline in revenue and profit and, in particular, the profit margins relative to the other five railroads?

与其他铁路公司相比存在哪些问题？正在采取哪些措施来解决这些问题？

What are the issues relative to the air other railroads and what is being done to address them?

请具体说明。

Please be specific.

好的。

Okay.

我会具体说明，这取决于格雷格想说什么。

And I will well, I'll specifically get depends on what Greg wants to say.

但格雷格，这是格雷格的责任。

But Greg is that it's Greg's responsibility.

在Greg接手之前，采购和运营是我的责任。

It's my responsibility for the purchase and for the operation up till Greg turned over.

但我想还是让Greg来回答这个问题吧。

But I think I'll let Greg answer that.

当然。

And Sure.

是的。

Yes.

沃伦已经提到了，评论中的反映非常准确。

The Warren touched on it and the comments from the as reflected there are very accurate.

如果你看看本季度或去年的业绩，它们既让股东失望，也相对于其他一级铁路公司表现不佳。

If you look at this quarter's results or our last year's results, they were both they're disappointing as shareholders and disappointing in the relative to the other Class one railroads.

正如问题中强调的，还有五家其他一级铁路公司。

And as highlighted in the question, there's five other Class one railroads.

因此很容易理解你相对于其他公司的表现，虽然存在许多其他变量，但有些非常简单的方面可以观察。

So it's pretty easy to understand how you're performing versus the others and there's a lot of other variables, but there's some very simple things to look at.

回顾我们与伯灵顿铁路的合作历程，我需要稍微回溯一下，因为如果回到2021年，伯灵顿团队和管理层在多个运营领域都取得了显著进展，无论是铁路运营效率还是效能都表现出色。

When we look at where we've been on with associated with Burlington, I would just back up a little bit because if you go back to 2021, the Burlington team and management team in the group, we're making excellent progress on a lot of fronts when it comes to our operating and both being efficient and effective in how we're operating the railroad.

我清楚地记得自己在2022年的具体评论，当时我提到这是解决供应链问题的一年——西海岸港口状况频发，我们的列车在多处积压，我们称之为'重置年'。

And I remember very specific comments from myself in 2022, where I commented that that was the year that resolved the supply chain issues, a lot going on in the West Coast ports, our trains were backed up in a variety of places and we called that a reset year.

我认为运营方面确实需要这样一年的调整期。

And I think we did need a reset year on the operational side.

但进入2023年后，虽然业务成本水平和成本结构需要调整，我们却未能根据实际需求进行重置。

But as we moved into 2023, the business cost level, cost structure, we didn't reset it to the underlying demand we are seeing.

我们预期了更高的需求，但未能相应调整成本结构。

We anticipated more demand and we did not reset our cost structure.

目前团队正在全力推进两项工作：重置成本结构，以及将成本资源配置到真正需要的领域。

And the team is working very hard as we speak to both reset the cost structure and allocate the cost resources where they need to be.

通过这段经历我们认识到：虽然铁路需求确实会驱动部分成本，但现实是纵观铁路行业数十年的历史，其发展基本处于停滞状态。

And when you go through something like that, what we've recognized as an organization, yes, the demand of the rail will drive a certain amount of the cost, but the reality is that the rail industry if you go back many, many years, it's flat.

这个行业几乎没有增长空间。

There's not a lot of growth in the industry.

存在提升效率和效益的机会，我们的利润率可以随之提高。

There's opportunities to become more efficient, effective and our margins can go up.

但现实是需求将保持平稳，不过会在铁路的不同板块间流动。

But the reality is the demand is going to be flat, but it does move within different sectors of the rail.

可能出现在消费品领域，也可能是工业板块或农业领域，但总体而言需求将相对持平。

It can be in the consumer products, it can be in industrial, it can be an ag, but overall it's generally going to be relatively flat.

因此我们需要调整好成本结构，不仅要为来年做好准备，更要着眼于长远发展。

So we need to get our cost structure right and we need to get it right both for the coming year, but for the long term.

这意味着这将是一项持续性的工作。

And that means it's going to be a continuous exercise.

我们不能停下脚步。

We can't stop.

我们不能说已经做得足够好，因为我们不仅要与其他铁路公司竞争，还要与卡车运输业抗衡。

We can't say we've gotten far enough because our competitors and we compete with the other rails, but we also do compete with the truck industry.

我们必须建立能够同时在铁路行业和整个运输领域保持竞争力的成本结构。

We have to have a cost structure that allows us to compete both within our rail industry and within the transportation sector as a whole.

伯灵顿团队正像过去一样，非常努力地调整成本结构。

The team at Burlington is working very hard to address the cost structure just like we have in the past.

我认为有一点我们认识到，当其他铁路公司实施精准调度铁路运输时，我们必须持续关注其他指标，并挑战自我——如果我们未达到他们的水平，是哪些因素在驱动这种差距。

I think one thing we do recognize when the other railroads have implemented precision scheduled railroading, there's other metrics that we have to continue to pay attention to and challenge ourselves if we're not at their level, what are the things that are driving it.

所以当他们要求具体细节时，我会列举几项。

So we're going to when they ask for specifics, I'll give you a few.

我们必须审视铁路货场，了解我们如何管理它们。

We have to look at our rail yards and understand how we're managing that.

我们必须评估机车车队的规模和使用效率，并不断自我挑战。

We have to look at our locomotive fleet, both the size and how we're utilizing that and challenge ourselves.

然后我们还需要回溯员工资源的运用方式及其在业务中的分配。

And we have to then go back to how we're using our employee resources and allocating them across the business.

这方面还有很多工作要做。

So there's a lot to be done there.

我们团队百分百致力于推动建立符合业务实际需求的合理成本结构。

Our team's 100 committed to driving to the right cost structure that's consistent with the underlying demand in the business.

而我们的答案是，我们不能止步于此。

And then we can't stop there is the answer.

还有很多工作要做，但我们有一支全心投入、坚定承诺的团队，我们将在今年取得良好进展。

So a lot to be done, but we have a team that's absolutely engaged and committed to it and we'll make going make good progress in the in in this current year.

在伯克希尔，我们希望每个人都明白每项业务都有大量改进空间。

At Berkshire, we want everybody to have the idea that there's a lot to be done with every business.

你知道，所以我的意思是，他们不仅与这家杰出的奥马哈建筑公司有重要合作——这家公司确实非同寻常。

You know, and and so, I mean, it is we they're not only big deal with the remarkable company and Omaha building company, really remarkable.

在他们完成每项工程后——比如那些被认为不可能完成的东河隧道挖掘项目——总会有人质疑是否还能做得更好。

And there's question after everything they did that would something that was done particularly well, you know, digging a tunnel under the East River or something when it said it couldn't be done.

他会表示满意但永不满足。

He would say it would be he was pleased but not satisfied.

这正是我们希望伯克希尔永远保持的态度。

And that is exactly the way we want the attitude to be at Berkshire forever.

奥马哈是座铁路之城。

Omaha is a railroad town.

如果如果林肯总统在1862年——我记得大概是那年——决定选择圣乔或普拉茨茅斯或其他任何地方作为横贯大陆铁路的起点。

If if president Lincoln in 1862, I think it was, had decided to pick Saint Joe or Plattsmouth or any place else to build the Transcontinental Railroad.

奥马哈可能至今仍只是密苏里河畔一个两万人口左右的小镇。

Omaha would probably be a little tired of 20,000 or something on the banks of Missouri.

但但林肯希望将这里作为东部枢纽，建设横贯大陆铁路的决策，几乎让这座城市一飞冲天。

But but making with Lincoln's desire to make this the Eastern Eastern connection, and make a transcontinental railroad, almost just took off.

所以这里自始至终都是铁路运输的基地。

So it's been it's been it's been railroading at its base.

要知道，任何对金融事务感兴趣的人都必须关注铁路，何况铁路本身就带着某种魅力。

The you know, and anybody that is interested in financial matters had to think about railroads plus they had a certain glamour to them anyway.

但有趣的是，我们的主要竞争对手联合太平洋铁路公司，在二十或二十五年前吉姆·杨上任前就已远远落后。

But the interesting thing is that UP, which is our main competitor, themselves fell way behind twenty or twenty five years ago before Jim before Jim Young came in.

2000年左右，具体记不清了，大概是八年前，我开始大量买入北方铁路、联合太平洋、BNSF以及诺福克南方铁路的股票。

And in 2000, whenever it was, eight or so, I started buying free railroad stocks in North and the Union Pacific, BNSF, and and Norfolk Western, I believe.

我也不知道当时为什么没买CNO的股票。

I I don't know why I wasn't buying CNO.

但无论如何，吉姆·杨在联合太平洋铁路公司干得非常出色。

But in any event, Jim Young had done a marvelous job with being with Union Pacific.

所以我们当时持有这三只股票。

So we we were on all three stocks.

但我们在2009年的操作是——虽然已经持有22%的股份，但整体投入是350亿美元，这占我们资本的很大比重。

But what we did in 2009 is we were able well, we already own 22% of it, but overall, it was $35,000,000 billion dollars, which was a significant part of our capital.

我们得以将资金投入我们看好的行业。

We were able to put it to work in a in a business we liked.

我们持有超过80%股份的企业在税务方面确实有优势，但这次我们选择100%控股而非通过股票投资。

And we there are certain tax advantages that come in terms of making money in something that's more than 80% owned, but call it a 100% owned in this case versus making it through stocks.

因此，通过完全控股铁路公司而非部分持股，我们获得了净收益，在经济衰退期间实现了350亿美元的收益。

So it has a a net benefit to us from making the same amount of money owning one of the other railroads by owning all of the railroads, and we got 35,000,000,000 out during a recessionary period.

我认为那是最糟糕的季度，2009年。

I think that was the worst quarter, the 2009.

也许铁路行业已经低迷很久了。

Maybe this is the rails that had it for a long time.

所以最终结果是成功的。

So it's it's worked out.

实际上效果非常好，但这是因为我们在1989年2月投入了资金。

Actually, it's worked out very well, but it's because we're we're putting out capital in 02/1989.

如果我们当时投资任何项目都能赚大钱，但通过全资控股企业获利更令人满意，在某些税务方面也确实比持有5%或10%股份的企业更有利。

And if we put put money in anything, we'd have made a lot of money, but it's more satisfying and it's actually better in certain ways tax wise to make it from something that's a 100% owned and all bunch of, you know, 5% or 10 owned businesses.

正如我在年报中提到的，铁路对国家至关重要。

We're you know, as I mentioned in the annual report, railroads are absolutely essential to the country.

这并不意味着它们在所有领域都处于领先地位。

That doesn't mean they're on the cutting edge of everything.

它们只是对国家至关重要。

They're just essential in the country.

正因如此，政府曾一度接管铁路，他们负责协商劳工协议等所有事项。

And, you know, it it that's why the government, you know, I think they took them over one time and they they negotiate what our labor settlements will be and everything.

如果国家铁路系统停运，其影响将是难以想象的。

And and if you shut down the railroads of the country, it would be incredible, the effects.

但现在要重建铁路系统是不可能的。

But and it would be impossible to construct now.

看看加州试图修建一条铁路线时发生的情况就知道了。

I mean, it look at what's happening in California when they're trying to build a line.

每个人都担心每一英里对环境的影响，以及各种鸟类会受到什么影响。

I mean, you know, everybody's worried about the environmental effect of of every mile and, you know, and what will happen to the various species of birds.

你能想象美国的铁路系统现在才被建造吗？

Can you imagine the rail system of The United States being built?

除非处于战争状态且政府接管并强行下令，否则这需要数十年时间。

It it it would it would take decades unless the war was on and the government took over things and just ordered them.

现在根本无法创建这样的系统。

It can't create it.

所以我们很喜欢拥有这样的企业。

So we love owning a business like that.

一百年后它依然会存在。

It's gonna be around a hundred years from now.

在这期间它绝不会是世界上增长最快的业务，但它将是不可或缺的。

Won't be the best growth business in the world at all during that period, but it'll be essential.

而且就其收益与重置成本相比简直是九牛一毛，但以我们的收购价来看我们会做得不错。

And and what it earns in its relation to its pit its its its replacement value is a pittance, but we'll do fine in terms of what we paid for it.

我们将以极具税务效率的方式向伯克希尔分配可观的回报，与我们的收购成本相比。

And we'll we'll distribute substantial amounts in relation to what we paid to Berkshire in a very tax efficient way.

所以当问题在于与其他铁路公司相比时，你知道，就算我们买下联合太平洋铁路，而吉姆·杨还活着为我们运营，也绝不会是世界末日。

And so it's it's when the question is what are the issues relative to the other railroads, you know, it wouldn't have been the end of the world if at all if we bought the Union Pacific and Jim Young had stayed alive to run it for us.

那本来也会很棒，但我们有机会收购BNSF铁路公司，这对他们很好，对我们也很有利。

That would have been great too, but but we had the opportunity to to buy BNSF, and it's been good for them, and it's been good for us.

我们认为这是对国家非常重要的资产。

And we think it's been it's a very important asset to the country.

你知道，我只是希望我们能在其他行业找到同样有意义的投资机会，能在有利时机投入大量资金运作。

And, you know, I just hope we can find something in other industries that where it makes as much sense as that, where we can put a whole bunch of money to to work, at an advantageous time.

那我们继续前往3号站吧。

So let's go on to Station 3.

这是正确的吗？

Is that correct or not?

是的。

Yep.

是的。

Yep.

是的。

Yep.

好的。

Okay.

下午好，巴菲特先生，阿贝尔先生。

Good afternoon, mister Buffett, mister Abel.

我叫塞拉·波普·沃，现居新西兰，但来自泰国。

My name is Sera Pop Wo, a resident of New Zealand, but originally from Thailand.

这是我第一次来美国，也是第一次参加这个会议。

This is my first time in America and the first time attending the meeting.

这段旅程相当艰辛，但一切都值得，因为我现在能亲自感谢您，巴菲特先生，以及已故的查理·芒格先生（趁他还在世时），感谢你们组织了如此精彩的活动，更重要的是，感谢你们这些年来作为杰出的榜样与我们分享智慧。

The journey was quite rough, but it was all worth it though because I can now personally thank you, mister Buffett and the late Charlie Munger, while he is still with us, for organizing such a wonderful event, and most importantly, for being such an exceptional role models and sharing your wisdom with us all these years.

所以谢谢你们。

So thank you.

哦，谢谢你的到来。

Oh, thank you for coming.

那么巴菲特先生，我有个问题想请教您。

So here's my question for you, miss miss mister Buffett.

2018年前后，您曾提到如果重新起步资金不足100万美元，您保证能实现50%的年化回报。

Towards the 2018, you mentioned that you guarantee you could make a 50% annual return if you had to start again with under $1,000,000.

问题是，如果明天您醒来发现自己变成了...

The question is, if tomorrow you woke up in the body of of

纯净的躯体。

Pure body.

20岁的美国人。

20 year old American.

纯净的身体。

Pure body.

不过没关系。

But that's fine.

而且你现在改名叫沃伦·阿拉卡德，并且有资金可以全职进行投资。

And your name was now Warren Alacard, and you had some money to invest on a full time basis.

你会采用什么方法或哪些方法来实现这样的回报？

What method or methods would you use to achieve that return?

这会涉及翻阅20,000页穆迪手册或类似出版物吗？是的。

Would it involve flipping through 20,000 pages of Moody's manual or similar publications Yeah.

或者是寻找，你知道的，寻找那些潜力巨大的机会？

Or finding, you know, you know, to find gigawatts?

还是会像芒格先生那样，以合理价格寻找伟大的公司？

Or would it be hunting for great companies at a fair price as mister Munger would?

抑或是两者结合，以机会成本作为最终裁决标准——鉴于你现在可选择的投资机会已大幅拓宽？

Or would it be a combination of both with opportunity cost serving as the final arbiter or which method to use given that your investing opportunity has now broadened significantly?

谢谢，哥本哈根。

Thank you, Copenhagen.

好问题。

Good question.

很高兴你来了。

I'm glad you came.

就我个人而言，答案会是翻阅那两万页资料。

And the answer would be, in my particular case, it would be going through the 20,000 pages.

既然我们谈到铁路，我确实翻阅过穆迪运输手册几次。

And since we were talking about railroads, you know, I went through the Moody's Transportation Manual a couple of times.

那大概有1500到2000页吧。

That was 1,500 or 2,000 pages or no.

应该是1500页左右。

Probably 1,500 pages.

我在50岁，或者20、21岁时，从中发现了各种有趣的东西。

And I found all kinds of interesting things when I was 50 or when I was 20 or 21.

我想在座的各位应该没人了解绿湾西部铁路公司，但当时有数百家铁路公司，我喜欢研究每一家。

And I don't imagine here there's anybody here that knows about the Green Bay and Western Railroad Company, but there were hundreds and hundreds of railroad companies, and I like to read about every one of them.

绿湾西部铁路在那时，每家铁路公司都有昵称。

The Green Ban Western, in those days, everybody had a nickname for for railroads.

比如北方太平洋铁路被称为‘尼珀’，东部的菲比·斯诺铁路曾通往康奈尔大学。

I mean, that was that was just what Northern Pacific was the nepper and, you know, Phoebe Snow was one of them in the East that used to go up to Cornell.

而绿湾西部铁路的昵称是‘GB&W’，意为‘拿上行李步行’。

And the Green Bay and Western was known as grab baggage and walk and GB and W.

他们发行了一种债券实质上是普通股，而普通股实质上是债券。

And they had an they had a bond that was actually the common stock, and they had a common stock that was actually a bond.

这种情况可能导致异常现象，但不会带来能让你赚取数百万美元的异常机会。

And, you know, that that could lead to unusual things, but they wouldn't lead to unusual things that would work for you when many millions of dollars.

不过当我收集了大量这类案例后——这正是我初次见面时让查理印象深刻的原因——因为我了解西海岸所有小公司的细节，这些他以为我从未听说过的公司。

But but if you collected a whole bunch of those, which I set out to do and actually that's what impressed Charlie when I first met him because I knew all the details of all these little companies on the West Coast that he thought I would never have heard of.

但我知道洛杉矶运动俱乐部之类的各种信息。

But but I knew about the Los Angeles Athletic Club or whatever it might be.

而他以为只有自己知道这些，这立刻成为了我们之间的连接点。

And he thought he was the only one that knew about that and that that that became an instant point of connection.

所以回答你的问题，我不知道现在有什么能相当于穆迪手册的东西，但我会尝试了解所有小事物的所有细节，然后找到机会。

So to answer your question, I would I would I I don't know what the equivalent of Moody's manuals or anything would be now, but I would I would try and know everything about everything small, and I would find something.

用一百万美元，一年可以赚50%。

And with a million dollars, you could earn 50% a year.

但你必须热爱这个领域。

But you have to be in love with the subject.

你不能只爱钱。

You can't just be in love with the money.

你必须像探险一样去寻找机会。

You really gotta just find it like a trip.

本质上，就像人们在其他领域寻找事物一样，因为他们就是喜欢探索。

You know, essentially, like, you know, people find other things in other fields because they just love looking for them.

生物学家寻找某些东西，因为他们渴望发现新事物。

A biologist looks for something because they may they they wanna find something.

这已经深植其中。

They and it's built into that.

我不太了解人类大脑的运作方式，而且我认为没人真正完全理解人脑的工作原理。

I I don't know how the human brain works that much, and I don't think anybody not understands too well how the human brain works.

但确实存在这样一类人，他们单纯以扩展特定领域知识为乐。

But but there's different people that that just find it exciting to expand their knowledge in a given area.

你知道的，我认识一些顶尖的桥牌选手。

We've you know, I know great bridge players.

实际上我还认识几位国际象棋大师。

I know great chess players actually.

卡斯帕罗夫曾来过奥马哈见过B夫人。

Kasparov came to Omaha and met missus b.

我有幸遇到过许多在各自领域聪明绝顶，却在其他方面做出令人难以置信蠢事的人。

I've had the luck of meeting a lot of people that are unbelievably smart in their own arena and do some unbelievably dumb things in other areas.

所以我唯一知道的是人脑很复杂，但当你找到真正适合自己大脑的领域后全力投入，它就能发挥最佳状态。

So all I know is the human brain is complicated and but it does its best when you find out what your brain is really suited for, and then you just, pound the hell out from that point.

如果我有少量资金并且想实现每年50%的收益，我就会这么做。

And that's what I would be doing if I if I had a small amount of money and I wanted to make 50% a year.

但我也只是想玩这个游戏。

But I also wanted to just play the game.

如果你对游戏本身不感兴趣——无论是桥牌、国际象棋，还是寻找被低估的证券——你就无法做到这一点。

And you can't do it if you really if you don't find the game of interest, whether it's bridge or whether, you know, whatever it may be, chess or, in this case, finding securities that are undervalued.

但听起来你正走在正确的道路上。

But it sounds to me like you're on the right track.

我的意思是，能专程来参加这次年度会议的人，心里想的肯定不只是桥牌或国际象棋。

I mean, anybody who'll come all the way to this annual meeting has got something in their mind other than bridge or chess.

很高兴你能来，明年也请再来。

So I'm glad you came and come again next year.

现在我们请贝基发言。

And now we move now we move to Becky.

这个问题来自匹兹堡的股东丹尼·波兰。

This question comes from Denny Poland, a shareholder from Pittsburgh.

在描述委托代理问题时，芒格先生曾指出，当财产管理者同时是财产所有者时，资本主义往往能发挥最佳效能。

When describing the principal agent problem, mister Munger said that capitalism often works best when the people managing the property also own the property.

近年来，养老金基金和资产管理公司的代理人——他们在伯克希尔没有重大个人持股——提出的提案往往不符合股东的经济利益。

In recent years, agents of pension funds and asset management firms who do not have significant personal ownership stakes in Berkshire have forwarded proposals that were not in the economic interest of shareholders.

在您未来无法通过重大投票反对这些代理人的数十年间，我们能采取哪些措施来限制他们的负面影响？

What can be done to limit the negative influence of these agents in the decades after you're no longer able to cast significant votes against them?

这是个非常敏锐的问题，目前已有临时性解决方案，但未来局势如何发展谁也无法预料。

Well, that's that's a very perceptive question, and and it's been answered in a temporary manner, but but but who knows what these how the situation will develop in the future.

我只知道你们在伯克希尔·哈撒韦握有一手好牌，但你们必须学会独立思考。

All I know is that you have a wonderful hand at Berkshire Hathaway, but you have to you have to be able to think your way.

显然，你们需要从政治现实角度思考问题，要考虑如何让自己成为国家的资产——因为当被视为国家资产时，你们自然会找到更多解决方案。

I mean, obviously, you have to think your way through political realities or you have to think your way for what will cause you want a, you wanna be on you you you wanna be regarded as an asset to the country because you'll find more solutions if you are, an asset you owe to the country anyway.

但若被视为邪恶或更糟的存在——特别是当这种评价名符其实时——你们能获得的解决方案就会少得多。

But but, you'll you'll find more solutions than if if you're regarded as evil or or or something and worse yet if you deserve it.

因此这是我们时刻关注的问题，也必须成为董事会成员们的考量重点。

So it it it's it's it's something that's constantly in our mind, and it needs to be in the mind of the directors.

他们需要独立思考这个问题，而不是遵循传统观念。在某种意义上，你不想对生活变得愤世嫉俗，但几乎所有接近你的人——如果你拥有大量资源——都会想方设法利用你的资源为自己谋利。

And they need to think for themselves on this rather than about conventional wisdom, which, you know, in a sense, you don't wanna become a cynic about life, but almost everybody that approaches you if you have tons of resources has got some interest in figuring out how to use your resources to their advantage.

无论他们在政界、投资银行界，还是在向你推销任何东西时，这种情况都普遍存在。

And and that's true whether they're in politics or whether they're in investment banking or whether they're selling you well, whatever it may be that they're selling.

我不想伤害任何人，但人寿保险经纪人自然倾向于推销保险，而按管理资产收费的投资经理则热衷于向你推销他们的服务。

I don't wanna do any injury to anybody, but but, you know, life insurance agents see the advantage of buying life insurance and and investment managers who get paid based on assets managed to get interested in selling you their services.

想象一下，如果这个房间里每个人都听从某个人的投资建议，而这个人每年收取1%的费用来指导你如何投资。

Imagine if everybody in this room were following the investment advice of somebody that said, you know, for 1% a year, I'll tell you how to invest your money.

如果在1950年——我们1965年起步时——他们就会说：'我选伯克希尔哈撒韦'。

And in 1950, when we started in 1965, they would've they would've said, well, I Berkshire Hathaway.

如果这些人现在还在，看到这1%的收费模式，他们每年能从我们不分红的股东那里收取80亿美元。

And and if they were around now and they saw the 1% deal, they'd be collecting $8,000,000,000 a year from people who aren't getting any dividends from us.

所以，他们对与你达成的合同条款的兴趣，自然会与你不同。

So, yeah, they they would have a different interest in in the kind of contract they worked out with you than you would have.

最好的办法就是一次性付清佣金，然后直接持有股票。

Best And thing to do is just pay them a commission one time and own the stock.

但你必须警惕人性对他人和你自己的影响。

But you have to be alert to how what human nature does to both other people and to you.

然后你知道，如果你深思熟虑并真正倾听查理告诉你的话，你将比大多数人领先一大步。

And then you you know, if you think it if you think it through well and actually listen to what Charlie has told you, you'll have a big head start on most people.

查理，有一点我应该提到，关于查理其实并不那么有趣。

Charlie, there's one thing that I should mention that really isn't terribly interesting about Charlie.

查理深知心理学、人类行为、激励机制等的重要性。

Charlie knew the importance of psychology and human behavior and incentives and all of that.

他很早就想明白了这一点。

He he figured that out very early.

当然，他甚至就此做过演讲，大约25种方式之类的。

And, of course, he he gave some talks even on, you know, '25 or so ways, whatever it happened to be.

我不记得具体数字了，但就是通过理解人类行为来利用他人的各种方式。

I don't remember the exact number, but the different ways that one person could take advantage of another by understanding how humans behave.

在精彩地解释完这些后，他相信理解他人的行为很重要，但认为这样做有失身份。

And then after doing a magnificent job of explaining it, he believed in understanding what others would do, but he thought it was beneath him.

并且真正运用这些方法来操控他人。

And to actually use those methods to manipulate people.

这真是个有趣的人，他深入思考人类行为的心理学，并想明白如何成为出色的保险销售员、华尔街经理，或是积累管理资产等等。

That's a really interesting human being that thinks through the psychology of human behavior and figures out, you know, how you become a great insurance salesman or manager on Wall Street or accumulative assets under management or whatever it may be.

某种程度上，通过理解他人的弱点可以让你变得非常富有，然后你要认识到当这些弱点出现时，识别它们对你来说非常重要。

And you get very rich by understanding the weaknesses of others to some extent and then decide that it's very important for you to recognize these when they occur.

对你来说，比那些实际利用这些弱点的人更了解它们非常重要，但并不意味着你需要降低身份去利用它们。

It's very important for you to know them better than the person that actually is using them, but not that you don't have to stoop to using them yourself.

查理告诉我，在他想明白这些之后，一生中确实有几次运用了这些方法。

And and Charlie told me that that, you know, in lifetime, after he figured this out, were a couple of times when he used them.

他并不以此为荣，但也从未对我撒谎。

He wasn't proud of it, but he also never lied to me.

他向我解释，确实有几次他运用了这些技巧，但他并不打算再用了。不过他也想让我知道，如果我做了类似的事，也不算太出格——他承认自己可能也有行为不当的时候。

So he he explained to me that, you know, there there were a couple of times when he used some of these techniques, but but he it wasn't he didn't plan on using them anymore, but but he also wanted me to know that if if if I ever did something like that, I wasn't really behaving terribly that he he allowed for he allowed for the fact that he was he was may misbehave.

所以我确信，在婚前我对夜间跳舞之类的各种活动热情高涨时，行为举止要比婚后好一些。

So I'm sure that I behaved somewhat better before my marriage than I did afterwards in my enthusiasm for different activities at night dancing or something.

他还说，要知道，我们都会犯错，但别再犯了。

And and he said, that's, you know, we all do it, but don't do it again.

所以这是获取人生智慧的一部分。

So that's that's part of acquiring human wisdom.

说到人生智慧，我们手头就有查理写的那本书。

And speaking of human wisdom, we've just got that one book out there by Charlie.

我指的是《穷查理宝典》，值得反复阅读三四遍。

I mean, poor Charlie's Almanac and that's worth reading three or four times.

我记得本·格雷厄姆的书我读了五六遍。

I think I read Ben Graham's book about five or six times.

每次重读时，我都意识到需要对某些问题思考得更深入些。

And each time I read it, I realized that I I just needed to think a little more deeply about certain things.

这些内容并不复杂。

They weren't complicated or anything.

但你要知道，像查理这样伟大的教导，多读几遍总比每本书只读一次就束之高阁要好。

But, you know, it it's better to if if you've got some great instruction like you get with Charlie, it's better to read it several times than to just figure you'll just read every book once and it's in the library.

好的。

Okay.

我们来看第四节。

Let's go to Section 4.

我是来自俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨的杰夫·罗伯里尔，我在想格雷厄姆博士、芒格先生，还有您的父亲。

Jeff Roboliere from Tulsa, Oklahoma, and I'm thinking of doctor Graham, mister Munger, your father.

我的问题是面向所有人的，但可能特别针对在场的年轻人：关于人生中选择正确榜样、谨慎择友的重要性，能否请您分别讲讲关于这些人的故事？

And my question is for all of us, but it's probably especially for the younger people in the room, the importance of picking the right heroes in life, choosing friends wisely, and maybe tell us a story if you could about each of those folks.

谢谢您。

Thank you, sir.

毫无疑问，你关于选择正确榜样这个观点完全正确。

Well, there's no question you're you're a 100% right in terms of of having the right heroes.

而且你知道，能遇到这样的榜样是种幸运。

And, you know, you're you're you're lucky if you get them.

我是说，查理就遇到过这样的榜样。

I mean, Charlie had Charlie had them.

我有过这样的榜样。

I had them.

有趣的是，我妹妹今天也在场。

And the interesting thing, my sister is here today.

我妹妹是两位幸存者之一。

My younger sister that with the two survivors.

我们虽然长大后对他的许多观点并不认同，但都认同他的价值观和动机。

And we both experienced having the same herald even though as we grew older, we saw that we didn't agree with plenty of his ideas, but we did agree with his values and motivation.

这比有人照本宣科地给你灌输那些虽然不错但充满条条框框的教条要好得多。

And that's that's a better lesson than having somebody that that's reading to you from a catechism that is has got a lot of rules in it, which are pretty good rules.

但那些即使你打破某些规则仍会继续爱你的人，有着特殊的意义。

But but there's a special special place for somebody that that is going to continue loving you even if you break some of the rules.

查理一生中就有这样的人。

And that's what Charlie had in his life.

伯尼和我的人生中也有这样的人。

It was what Bernie and I had in our life.

所以，我想重复你刚才说的话。

So so I would I would just repeat what you said.

我不需要给你讲太多，嗯...当我离家出走时，我可以给你举个具体的例子。

I'm I'm don't need to give you a bunch of well, I'm when I ran away from home I'll give you a specific example with me.

当我离家出走，我们搭便车到了宾夕法尼亚州的赫尔希，结果被州警拦下，我还说服了另外两个男孩一起这么做。

I when I ran away from home and went and we hitchhiked up to Hershey, Pennsylvania and got picked up by the state police and everything, and I talked to these other two guys into it.

我们对州警撒了弥天大谎，说我们得到了父母的许可。

And we lied like crazy to the state police, you know, saying we had our parents' permission.

有个住在我们待过地方的小孩告发了我们离家出走的事。就像我说的，当州警拦下我们时，我们决定做两件事：编造我们得到父母许可的谎言，并决定最好赶紧离开赫尔希，因为警察迟早会发现真相。

Some some some kid at the place where we stayed had kept them off that we'd run away from home, and we started like I said, when the state police picked us up, we decided that two things, you know, we decided to tell them bunch of lies about the fact we had our parents' permission, and we decided we better get out of Hershey because these cops were gonna find out sooner or later.

总之，几天后我们回到了华盛顿。

And so anyway, we end up back in Washington after a couple days.

当我走进家门时，其中一个男孩的母亲——另一个孩子是国会议员罗杰·贝尔的儿子——

And when I walked in the door, well, one of the boys' mother and the other kid was a congressman Roger Bell.

而他母亲因为这件事住院了。

And his mother was in the hospital over this whole thing.

他取出了现金和储蓄债券，所以她病倒了。

He'd taken out his cash and his savings bonds, and so she was sick.

贝尔法官，她的丈夫非常担心这一切。

And judge Bell, her husband was all concerned and everything.

我走进门时已在华盛顿，我母亲问：'他怎么这么快就回来了？'

And I walked in the door and I'm in Washington and my mother said, how come he came back so soon?

我父亲说，他说：'我知道你可以做得更好。'

And my father said, he he said, I know you can do better.

而且我更关注我父亲而非母亲。

And and I just pay more attention to my father than my mother.

所以你要选对英雄榜样，但并非必须要有。

And so you wanna have the right heroes, and you don't have to have them.

英雄不应仅凭他们的成就来定义。

It's not the heroes based on what they've accomplished.

这其实就是那些你想成为的人。

And it's it's just, you know, it's it's it's it's it's the people that you wanna be yourself.

如果你效仿正确的人，你就有了一个良好的开端。

And if you if you copy the right people, you're off to a great start.

我指的不是在赚钱方面有个好开始。

And I don't mean a great start about making money.

我指的是在人生道路上有个好开端。

I mean, a great start about living your life.

你可以问问在场的我妹妹伯蒂，看我讲的故事是否准确。

So you can check with my sister, Bertie, who's here and see if I've told the story correctly.

顺便说下她也离家出走过，只不过没我走得那么远。

She ran away from home too, incidentally, but but she didn't get as far as I got.

她是跑去我祖父家，大概两英里远。

But she was running away to go over to my grandfather's house, which was about two miles away.

不过我并不想贬低她的小小出走，毕竟她在其他各种事情上都比我出色得多。

But I I don't wanna denigrate her runaway a little at least because she she is much more accomplished than than I am in all kinds of other things.

但要论离家出走的话，我确实比她强得多。

But when it comes to running away, I I definitely outclassed her.

好的。

Okay.

我们去找贝基吧。

Let's go to Becky.

这个问题来自印度的维丹特·夏尔马。

This question comes from Vedant Sharma in India.

沃伦，你和查理经常提到，你们能够识别出想要合作的商业伙伴，并且在这方面有着非凡的记录。

Warren, you and Charlie have often said that you were able to identify the people you want to go into business with and have had an exceptional record in that.

然而，在Pilot的案例中，我们注意到最终的股权收购最终引发了争议，并且存在某种精明的会计操作——姑且这么说——从交易中榨取了比卖方应得的更多的利益。

However, in the case of Pilot, we noticed that the final stake purchase ended up in a dispute and had a sense of smart accounting to put it one way to squeeze a a little more out from the deal than was deserved by the seller.

虽然明知此事已庭外和解且需要严格保密，我还是想听听您对其中经验教训的看法，这些见解可能对未来的交易有借鉴意义，也能为未来的领导层提供警示。

Knowing well that this has been settled out of court and needs due confidentiality, I would like your views on some of the lessons learned that may be beneficial for future deals to watch for and for coming leadership to look out for as well.

关于这一点，我有两点看法。

I'll I'll make two comments on that.

当时几位董事对我们入股的疑虑本身也存有疑虑。

A couple of the directors had our doubts about their doubts about going in.

无论如何，Pilot公司对我们来说进展顺利。

And in any event, pilot is working out well for us.

我的朋友萨姆·巴特勒有一次对我说——他当时是在泛泛而谈某些情况——

And and my friend Sam Butler one time said to me that and he was talking in general about certain kinds of situations.

他说：‘沃伦，结果好就一切都好。’

But he said, well, Warren, he said, all's well that ends.

这就是我们现在的处境。

And that's where we are.

那我们转到5号站台。

So we'll go to Station 5.

趁我们前往5号站台的间隙，我再给你们讲讲现在经营Pilot的那位伙计。

Well, while we're getting to Station 5, I'll tell you a little bit more about the fellow that is now running pilot.

你们可能在这里见过格雷格，我认识他很久很久了，他在奥马哈长大，出身贫寒，由母亲抚养成人。

I knew you may have met here that Greg had known for a long, long time, and he grew up in Omaha and came from a poor family and was raised by his mother.

没错。

Right.

我和我妻子上的是同一所公立高中——北高中，后来去了奥马哈大学，在那里创下了冲球码数的历史记录。

And I went to the same high school, public high school that my wife went to North High, went to University of Omaha, set an all time record in in in rushing yardage playing there.

他当过夜店保安。

He was a bouncer.

是的。

Yes.

我记得是被纽约巨人队选中的。

Crafted by the New York Giants as I remember.

完全正确。

But Exactly.

对。

Yeah.

但后来我记得是在春季训练中受了伤。

And but then injured, actually, in spring training as as I remember in some way.

所以他最后成了一名实习生。

And so he ended up being an intern.

与其说是实习生，不如说是培训生

Not an intern, but a trainee, you might say

没错

Right.

那是在我加入美联能源之前的事

For MidAmerican before I was there.

而现在他还相当年轻，就已经掌管着一家大型企业

And and now he here he is, still relatively young, and he's running a huge company.

我们对他未来的作为充满信心，也非常非常欣赏大吉姆·哈斯拉姆创立的这项业务

And we've we've got incredible confidence in what he will do, and we like very, very, very much the business that was created by by big Jim Haslam.

你知道，这确实是个典型的美国式成功故事，但它也展示了当一个人具备真才实学，有母亲的支持，尽管途中遭遇挫折

And the you know, it really is almost an only in an American type story, but it it does show you what somebody was some real stuff and with a mother that that believes in them and with bad breaks along the way.

想象一下，如果你被纽约巨人队选中，却在春季训练中受伤，会是什么感受

I mean, imagine how you'd feel if you were drafted by the New York Giants and and then you suffered some in injury in the spring training or something.

我的意思是，你会觉得毕生心血都付诸东流，这真的很痛心

I mean, you know, you spend your life it just it hurts.

但这与我曾有过的经历完全不同。

But it's not like the experience I would have ever had.

这是另一个——我是说，那是最后一个被选中的人。

It's another I mean, that was the last guy chosen you.

但是，你知道，看到他经营着一家公司。

But the, you know, to see that, he's running a company.

嗯，这取决于交易价格，但它是一家大公司。

Well, it depends on the price of deal, but it's a huge company.

他拥有多少？

And what does he have?

20？

20?

25,000？

25,000?

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

员工数量。

Of employees.

25000人。

25,000.

没错。

Yeah.

而且他还有很长很长的路要走。

And and he's got many, many, many years to go.

所以我对收购Pilot这件事感到无比满意，更重要的是它展现了美国的潜力。

So I couldn't be more pleased about not only the acquisition of Pilot, but but just what it tells you about America.

你可以查查——你得上网搜他们的资料还是看亚当的采访？

You can catch what what do you have to look up to read about them in Google or interview with Adam?

对。

Yeah.

我在想这是不是一个播客节目

I'm trying to think if it's a podcast.

是的

Yeah.

他他他有个播客节目绝对会让你大吃一惊

He he he got a podcast podcast that will just blow you away.

如果你不认为这是个伟大的国家并且有很多优秀的人，你只需要

And if you don't think this is a great country and has a lot of great people, all you gotta

就是读那个播客。

do is read that podcast.

所以我们这里确实拥有一套很棒的资产。

So we but we do have a great set of assets here.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

要知道，Pilot拥有超过800个旅行中心站点，这是众所周知的。

You know, if you look at Pilot, we have 800 more than 800 station travel centers and just everybody knows.

我是说，这其中的美妙之处在于，今早关于Pilot燃油选择的问题。

I mean, the beauty of that and there's a question regarding this morning around fuel choices at Pilot.

令人兴奋的是，最终Pilot将提供客户所需的任何燃料。

And the exciting thing is, in the end, Pilot's gonna serve whatever fuel our customers need.

可以是电动的，可以是可再生柴油，可以是柴油或任何其他可持续燃料。

It can be electric, it can be renewable diesel, it can be diesel or any of the various sustainable fuels.

但关键在于它拥有位于州际公路上的绝佳地理位置。

But the point is it has exceptional locations that are on the interstate highways.

有数百个这样的站点。

Hundreds of them.

数百个站点，我们收购了一个了不起的特许经营品牌，现在Adam和他的团队组成了一个优秀的领导团队。

Hundreds of them and we bought an incredible franchise and now we have a great leadership team in both Adam and his team that's around them.

所以我们对这个机遇的发展感到满意。

So we're pleased where that opportunity will go.

是的。

Yeah.

我们大概有

We've got probably

平均每个可能有10或12英亩左右。

the average one might be 10 or 12 acres here or something like that.

遍布全美州际公路的商业区。

Zone commercial on interstates throughout the whole United States.

我是说，谁知道呢？

I mean, it who knows?

但在那里创造的成果也很惊人。

But but what was created there is amazing too.

是的。

Yeah.

跟进了。

Followed it.

对。

Yep.

那是在宾夕法尼亚大学上演的。

That played at University of Pennsylvania.

我是说，田纳西大学并且保持不败

I mean, of Tennessee and undefeated

是啊。

Yeah.

然后离开了这支橄榄球队。

And came away from this football team.

你会想，好吧，不是橄榄球运动员。

And you think, well, not a football player.

你知道，也许他出去闯荡，故事中可能有些中间环节有点曲折，但他买了个加油站，然后把它发展成了大事业。

You know, maybe the he goes out and and there may be some intermediate parts in the story a bit a little bit, but buys he a gas station, and he turns it into something that is huge.

所以我们对此真的非常满意。

So it's we're we're really delighted with with it.

而且，你知道，这又是那种'只有在美国才会发生'的故事。

And and, you know, it it's another kind of only in America story.

要知道，我们中有多少人能成为全美排名第一的团队，更别说创办一家能达到如此高度的企业了。

And, you know, how many of us can become an all American number one ranks team, let alone start up a business that that goes on to these sort of heights.

所以我们对此感到非常欣慰。

So we feel very good about it.

贝基？

Becky?

不。

No.

我想他们已经准备好迎接第五个了。

I think they're ready for five now.

哦，我明白了。

Oh, I see.

我想

I think

他现在就在那里。

he's up there now.

哦，好的。

Oh, okay.

准备出发。

Ready to go.

好的。

Okay.

去做吧。

Go do it.

你好，先生。

Hello, Mr.

巴菲特。

Buffett.

我叫张亚波。

My name is Zhang Yabo.

我来自中国海南的微城市。

I came from Microcity, Hainan, China.

我想对您表达由衷的感谢，感谢您为股东创造的非凡价值，以及对我们年轻一代投资者产生的积极影响。

So I want to express my sincere gratitude for you for the extraordinary value you generated for shareholders and the positive influences you've had on younger generation of investors like us.

我的问题与最大化复利持续时间的理念相关。

And my question relates to the concept of maximizing the duration of compounding.

随着个人年龄增长，复利质量不可避免地会下降。

As individuals age, the quality of compounding inevitably diminishes.

您保持敏锐思维、非凡判断力和良好身体状态的秘诀是什么？

What are your secrets in maintaining your sharp man, extraordinary judgment, and great physical condition?

我们祝您一切顺利。

We wish you well.

谢谢。

Thank you.

嗯，你不太了解我，但我就是喜欢一直说个不停。

Well, you don't know me well, but that's I like just keep talking.

这个嘛，你知道的，我就是纯粹运气好。

The well, I you know, I'm just you have to be just plain lucky.

我是说，毫无疑问，有上百次甚至上千次，你知道，就是那些醉汉可能突然开车冲出来撞到我，或者生活中可能遇到的各种倒霉事。

I mean, there's no question about it that that there's a 100 or a thousand, you know, multiply a number of times that some drunk could have pulled out of a car and broadsided me or, you know, just all the bad luck that that you can have in life.

而我，你知道，你可以说我的伟大技能就是避免厄运，但那不是技能，纯粹是运气或糟糕透顶的行为。

And I, you know, you can say that my my great skill has been avoiding bad luck, but that isn't a skill that's luck or bad bad bad activities.

然后他们就会变成...你知道，如果拿我高中班级来说，你会说‘你们中有几个人能活到90岁，男性能活到93岁’。

And and, you know, and then they get to be you know, I would not have been a if you'd taken my high school class and you say, you know, a couple of you are gonna live to be 90 men are gonna live to be 93.

我是说，我...你知道，我绝不会是热门人选。

Mean, I've been you know, I wouldn't would not have been a heavy favorite.

我可以明确告诉你这点。

I can tell you that.

而且我也不会押注在自己身上。

And I wouldn't have bet on myself.

但你只是不知道。

But you just no.

当你走运时，就应该充分利用这份运气。

You you should make the most of your luck when you get it.

有些时候我做到了，有些时候没有。

And sometimes I've done that and sometimes I haven't.

我的意思是，如果让我重来一次，我肯定会做出很多不同的选择，这绝对是事实。

I mean, it is absolutely true that if I had it to do over again, there'd be there'd be a lot of different choices I would make.

那些选择最终会像现在这样顺利吗？

What do they would have ended up working out as well as as things have worked out?

很难想象还能比现在更顺利。

It's hard to imagine how they could have worked out any better.

所以...但有趣的是，只要你坚持前进，你可以犯多少错误。

So so I but it is interesting how many mistakes you can make if you just keep going.

查理，你知道，当你以前谈到这个时，你说就是要坚持到底，继续前进。

And, Charlie, you know, when you used to talk about that, that you just soldier through, you just keep going.

但你仍然需要运气。

And but you still need luck.

任何人说'我全靠自己'都是在...我的意思是，那根本就是妄想。

You don't you don't wanna anybody that says I did it all myself is just getting I mean, it's just it's a delusional.

而且，你知道，实际上，生活在一个预期寿命相当不错的国家。

And, you know, actually, live in a country where the life expectancy is pretty darn good, you know.

是啊。

So Yeah.

单凭这一点就是巨大的优势。

That alone is a huge plus.

如果我出生时，我姐姐就在这里。

I was was born if I've been born, my sister's here.

她生来就是女性，和我一样聪明，各方面都很优秀。

And she was born female, and she's just as smart as I was and everything.

但即使是我那些确实很成功的家人，尤其是我父亲，他都以极好的方式平等地爱着我们所有人。

But but even my own family who really did well, particularly my dad love us all equally and and and and in a terrific manner.

但他仍然告诉我，这是十分之十的概率，或者说，他是在第十九修正案通过十年后出生的。

But he still told me that that this is 10/10 or well, he was born ten years after the the nineteenth amendment was passed.

但他基本上告诉我的姐妹们，玛丽·杨，你至少还有你的美貌。

And but he told basically told my my sisters, you know, that Mary Young, well, you still have your looks.

他告诉我，这个世界，你知道，你体内的力量是自然界的新生事物。

And he told me that the world, you know, that power in you is new in nature.

他说你真的可以做任何事。

And that you really could do anything.

嗯，我当时觉得有很多事是我做不到的。

Well, I thought there were a lot of things I couldn't do.

但...但给予女性和男性的信息，即使出自最善意、最慈爱的父母之手，也存在着天壤之别。

But but it it the message given to females and males was incredibly different by the most well meaning and loving of parents.

你知道，就像我说的，在1930年代，这种观念已经延续了数百万年。

You know, like I say, in 1930, I mean, it'd been that way for millions of years.

现在情况已经发生了巨大变化，但显然还不够彻底。

It's it's changed quite dramatically, but obviously not completely.

不过这些变化都发生在我人生的后半段。

But during my lifetime, but it's been during the latter half of my lifetime.

就拿我妹妹们来说，如果她们晚出生哪怕五到十年，她们上大学时得到的建议依然会是——务必在校期间就结婚，因为毕业后好男人都被挑光了。

If you take my sisters, if they've been born even five or ten years later, they would they still would have been, you know, getting instructions when they went away to college to be sure and be sure and get married while or or get arranged so that you're going to be married, you know, while you're in school because after you get up, all the all the good ones are taken.

伯蒂告诉我，这基本上是她遇到的许多女性都曾被告知的信息。

That was Bertie was telling me that was a message that that, you know, basically, was had been imparted to most of a lot a lot of the women she had met, obviously.

所以，我们取得的进步确实令人惊叹，但令人难以置信的是这个过程竟如此漫长。

And so it it it really it's it's extraordinary how much progress we've made, but it's it's unbelievable how long it took to get it made.

我的意思是，这真的让你不禁思考——我们虽然歌颂着美国历史上的英雄事迹，但他们怎能一边宣称人人生而平等，一边却规定女性不能拥有财产（具体还取决于各州法律）？

I mean, it it really does make you wonder about, you know, we've got all these heroes from American history and all the wonderful things they did, but but how could they say all men are created equal and then rather constitute that women, you know, allowed women not to be able to own property and then depending on the state.

我是说，那真是糟糕透顶的环境。

I mean, just terrible conditions.

但无论如何，这就是你了解人类潜力的方式。

But anyway, that's how you learn about what the humans can do.

是啊。

Yeah.

而且我觉得——你必须对未来孩子们的生活比一百年前更有信心，无论现状如何。

And I feel and and you've gotta feel better about the future for your kids than you would have felt a hundred years ago no matter, you know, what the situation is.

总之，我们该请贝基发言了。

Anyway, we'll move to Becky.

这个问题来自康涅狄格州韦斯特波特的琳达·弗雷泽。

This question comes from Linda Fraser in Westport, Connecticut.

亲爱的巴菲特先生，过去您曾指定将妻子90%的遗产投资于低成本的标普500指数基金，10%投资于短期政府债券。

Dear mister Buffett, in the past, you've specified that 90% of your wife's inheritance be invested in a low cost S and P 500 index fund and 10% in short term government bonds.

但如今七大科技巨头的市值已占市值加权标普500指数总值的四分之一以上，这似乎是对科技行业的大额押注。

But the market cap of the magnificent seven tech stocks now represents more than one quarter of the market cap weighted S and P 500 index, which seems like a big bet on the tech sector.

我想知道您现在是否会建议将部分资金投资于等权重标普500指数基金，而不是将所有股票敞口都放在科技股权重过高的市值加权基金中？

I was wondering if you would now recommend investing some portion of the funds in a low cost equal weight S and P 500 index fund rather than having all of the equities exposure in a tech heavy market cap weighted fund?

嗯，这是个有趣的问题。

Well, that's an interesting question.

我要告诉你，我大约每三年会修改一次遗嘱，时不时会有一些新想法。

And and I will tell you that I I revise my will about every three years or so when I get little thoughts from time to time.

但你不会每次有想法就修改它。

And then you don't you don't change it every time you do it.

你会做些微调。

You get a tiny thing.

但我唯一没改动的部分是关于我妻子的遗产分配，按照任何人的标准，她都会继承一大笔钱——虽然与我积累的总财富相比只是九牛一毛。

But the one section I haven't changed is that that with with my wife that she she got left a huge amount of money by frankly anybody's measurement except a pittance compared to what I've accumulated in total.

而且这对她的生活不会产生丝毫影响。

And it doesn't it won't make one bit of difference to her in life.

无论她的投资表现是否跑赢标普500指数或其他任何指标，我只想确保她拥有远超实际需求的财富，同时给予她最大程度的心安，并真正保证信托管理人无需担忧投资表现——因为这对她根本无关紧要。

Whether she beats the S and P or anything else, all all all I wanna leave is plenty of money to take care of way beyond anything she'll ever spend and at the same time give her as much peace of mind as possible and and really make sure that the trustee who administers it doesn't really have to doesn't have to worry about whether it just doesn't make any difference whether she beats the S and P or not.

最关键的是让她确信自己处于绝对稳固的财务地位（事实也确实如此），无需为此费神，同时信托管理人也不必担心会面临诉讼或其他困扰。

And and the main thing is that she feels that she feels that she's in a financial position, which, of course, she will be, that she doesn't even need to think about it, and the trustee doesn't have to worry about getting sued or anything else.

所以这根本不是一个经济状况问题。

So it's it's it's it's simply not an economic condition.

现在很明显，我99%以上的财产都将用于慈善事业，而且我还有我的三个孩子。

Now, obviously, with 99% plus of what I have going to to, philanthropy and and, you know, and I've got my three children.

一个好处是，他们在70岁、69岁和65岁时已经相当成熟，可能比他们的父亲更成熟。

One good thing is that they've at the age of 70, 69, and 65, they have matured remarkably, probably more than their father.

但与此同时，他们能用这些钱的时间比他们50岁或类似年龄时要少。

And that's but at the same time, they've got less time to work with the money than they would have, you know, they were 50 or something like that.

所以你要尽最大努力实现你的目标，在你的遗嘱中，最终要知道，你无法预知死后会发生什么，但你要确保在你离开时做到最好。

So you do you do the best in in accomplishing your objectives, in your will, and and in the end, know, you can't you you don't know what's gonna happen after you die, but you make sure that that, to the extent that you leave.

然后你会有很多钱可以留下。

And then you have a lot of money to leave.

显然，你要感谢很多人，针对具体请求向不少人表达谢意。

You take obviously, you, you wanna say thanks to a lot of people when quite a few people in terms of specific requests.

你要照顾好你的家人。

You wanna take care of the your family.

但就我而言，这几乎不需要花什么钱，除了相当一部分用于缴税，剩下的资金由我的孩子们负责管理。

But but in my case, that requires practically no money and and a fair amount for taxes, but I have and my children are in charge of what happens to the funds that are left.

但就像我说的，问题在于当你活得像我这么久，孩子们也越来越大，谁知道寿命表会怎么变化，而我真正希望看到他们来管理资产分配，他们会的，而且会做得很好。

But like I say, the the problem is when you live as long as I have and the kids get older, you know, and who knows what happens to mortality tables and they're the ones that I really wanna see handle the distributions and they will and they'll be very good about it.

但如果三年后我们都还活着，他们会再老三岁，所以人生中不是所有问题都能解决。

And but if we're all alive three years from now, they'll be three years older and that's so everything you can't solve everything in life.

你只能尽力而为。

You do the best you can with it.

但人们确实会做出有趣的事情。

Then but people do interesting things.

我接触过的富人可能和任何人一样多，其中相当一部分人我知道他们正在或已经如何处理他们的资金。

I've been around probably as many rich people as almost anybody and a fair number of them I know what they're they're doing or have done with their funds.

你可以拥有巨额财富，让每个人都变得非常富有，但最终却让人们彼此之间更加疏远。

And the idea that you can have a huge amount of money and leave everybody very rich and have people liking each other less when it all happens.

人类确实很有趣，值得观察。

It's it's it's humans are really they are interesting to watch.

有些人处理得很好，有些人则非常糟糕。

Some of them handle it beautifully and others are terrible.

律师总会告诉你一件事：不要使用遗嘱附录。

The one thing lawyers will always tell you is don't don't use codicils.

换句话说，当你改变遗嘱时，直接写一份新的，但要撕毁旧的。

In other words, you know, when you change your mind on a will, just write a new one, but tear up the old one.

不要仅仅通过添加附录来修改遗嘱。

Don't do it by just adding codicils.

但我相信我是正确的。

But I believe I'm correct.

可以肯定的是，保罗·盖蒂曾是上世纪五六十年代的世界首富，关于他的故事读起来非常有趣。

Certainly read it that Paul Getty, who was the richest man in the world, presumably, at one point in the nineteen fifties or sixties, and he's a very interesting guy to read about.

他有过五任妻子，他的孙子曾被绑架，绑匪甚至割下孩子的一只耳朵寄给他。

And he had five five wives, and he's the one whose grandson was kidnaped kidnapped, and they they sent sent Paul Getty an ear of the child and everything.

我是说，这样的人生经历实在称不上幸福。

I mean, it it it it's not it's not a happy life when you get through it.

但有趣的是，他特别喜欢使用遗嘱附录，据说他有多达25份附录。

But the one one thing he he did that was kind of interesting, he actually liked to use codicils because I think he had, 25 of them.

这成了他的一种表达方式——通过遗嘱向人们解释他对这些人的看法，比如'我要把你从遗嘱中除名，因为...'，他似乎很享受这种形式。

And it was kind of his way of writing, well, I'm taking you out of the will because, you know, and so he he he he sort of delighted in explaining through his will what how he felt about all these people.

说真的，有些遗嘱揭露的事情确实匪夷所思。

I mean, you really get some strange things revealed in a will.

我刚读到一份遗嘱，立遗嘱人赚了很多钱，但不知道是要留给子女还是孙辈之类的继承人。

I just I just read about a will of fellow who made a whole lot of money and was leaving it to his I don't know whether his children, grandchildren, whatever it may have been.

但无论如何，他遗嘱的开场白是——这是多年前的事了，但我对这个家族有所了解。

But in any event, his opening line and his will is is and this was done some years ago, but I know something about the family.

他的开场白大意是说：'我正在东方航空公司经济舱里写下这份遗嘱'。

His opening line in effect said, I'm writing this will while I'm writing in the economy session of Eastern Airline.

这是某某航班号。

There's number such and such.

我的意思是，他坚信要直截了当地告诉遗产受益人他们应该如何生活，以及他们将如何被评判。

I mean, he believed in getting getting right to the point of what what what the people who were recipients, how they should live, and how they was gonna be judging.

看人们的遗嘱真是有趣极了，但你知道吗，有个人给妻子留了一大笔钱，条件是她必须再婚，这样至少会有一个男人为他的离世感到哀伤。

And it's just so damn interesting to watch people's wills, but, you know, one one guy left a lot of money to his wife on the condition that she remarry so that at least one man would mourn his passing.

你知道吗？

You know what?

好吧，我并不是在提供法律建议，就像我常说的那样，但我对事情的进展感到非常、非常、非常满意。

Well, I'm not giving legal advice here as I always say, but but I feel I feel very, very, very good about how things have turned out.

而且，我希望我能找到更好的方式来利用我所拥有的庞大资源，去解决世界上一些真正重要的问题，但我还没能做到这一点。

And and I wish I could figure out ways better to use, you know, the really vast resources I've got in the some of the really important questions of the world, but but I haven't been able to do that.

我是说，我在30或40岁时曾有几个目标，可能在当时写的遗嘱里提到了世界需要完成什么以及如何运用这笔钱。

I mean, I had a few goals when I was 30 or 40 and may have written them in the wills then in terms of what the world needed done and how the money could be used.

但遗憾的是，我后来认定那些目标根本不可行。

And, unfortunately, I decided that just what they weren't feasible to accomplish.

当然，我一直在试图完成那些重要但尚未有人解决的难题。

And, of course, I've been setting out this accomplish things that that were important, but nobody had solved yet.

所以你也该明白，为什么凭什么我能解决这些问题呢？

So you gotta expect that why why should I be able to solve them?

不过尽管如此，这确实很有意思——在场各位（我不知道其他国家来的人怎么样）都应该立遗嘱。

And, nevertheless, it it's it's an interesting but and the one thing about it is everybody here I don't know about the ones who've come from other countries, but they should you should have a will.

因为如果你没有遗嘱，实际上你还是有遗嘱的。

Because if you don't have a will, you still have a will.

只不过会按州政府的规定来执行。

And it'll be whatever the state says.

这真的很奇妙。

And it's amazing.

有四位美国总统未立遗嘱而去世。

Four American presidents died intestate without wills.

四位。

Four.

要知道，我们总共只有45位总统。

You know, we've only had 45.

想象一下当上美国总统却不立遗嘱。

And imagine becoming president of The United States and not having a will.

但你可以查查近代的例子。

But you can look up at somebody recent.

我想...我想林肯就是。

I think I think Lincoln.

我确信林肯是这四人之一。

I'm I'm certain Lincoln was one of the four.

而这个人啊...

And here's a man.

我是说，我不知道你总能说什么，好吧，他没来得及处理，但这这这很难想象，为什么亚伯拉罕·林肯会去世并被检验。

I mean, I don't know what you can always say, well, he didn't get around to it, but that that that's hard to imagine that that why the Abraham Lincoln would have died and tested.

我相信我们有些林肯学者听完后会给我写信解释原因，我会很期待收到他们的来信。

I'm sure we've got some Lincoln scholars out there that will write me after this and explain why, but I and I'll be interested to receive their letters.

但人类终究是人类，我们都有弱点、怪癖和其他种种。

But human beings are human beings, and and we all have weaknesses and peculiarities and everything else.

不要对自己太苛刻，因为你也有这些特质，但也不要完全放纵自己。

And don't be too hard on yourself because you have some of those, but don't be totally forgiving either.

你可以改变未来。

You can change the future.

你无法改变过去，但你可以改变未来。

You can't change the past, but you can't change the future.

好的。

Okay.

第六站。

Station six.