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这是iHeart播客，保证真人发声。
This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.
我是梅丽莎·杰尔钦，《她怎么了》播客的主持人。
I'm Melissa Jeltsin, host of the What Happened To Her podcast.
我们这一季的开篇是桑德拉·伯奇莫尔的故事，一起被警方认定为暴风雪中自杀的案件。
We're kicking off the season with the Sandra Birchmore story, a case the police wrote off as a suicide in a snowstorm.
她的家人从未相信这个结论，而他们怀疑的那个人，身上穿着警服。
Her family never bought it and the man they suspected wore a badge.
你永远不知道那个魔鬼是谁，因为他戴着伪装。
You never know who that devil is because he's wearing a disguise.
有时候，伪装就是一身警服。
Sometimes it's a police uniform.
现在订阅iHeart真实犯罪Plus，就能在Apple Podcasts上无广告收听所有剧集，这个福利只对iHeart真实犯罪Plus订阅用户开放。
And you can get access to all episodes 100% ad free with an iHeart true crime plus subscription exclusively on Apple Podcasts, available only to iHeart true crime plus subscribers.
所以别再等了。
So don't wait.
去Apple Podcasts，搜索iHeart true crime plus，今天就订阅吧。
Head to Apple Podcasts, search for iHeart true crime plus, and subscribe today.
丽莎，跟他们说说我们的新节目。
Lisa, tell them about our new show.
我们有个新播客。
We have a new podcast.
名字叫《别骗我》。
It's called Don't Lie to Me.
我是莱克西·伊瓦努。
I'm Lexi Iwanu.
我们是最好的朋友，相差二十二岁，但心贴得很近。
We're two best friends, twenty two years apart, but so close at heart.
我是丽莎·迪朱利奥，年纪大的那个，所以我们的梗完全不同，偶尔意见也不一样。
And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
到了我这个五十多岁的年纪，什么都经历过了。
And at this point in my fifties, I've lived it all.
现在我三十多岁，作为新鞋品牌的创始人，好品味就是我的事业。
Now in my thirties, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business.
可以在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或者任何你收听播客的平台收听。
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
嗨。
Hi.
我是凯莉·布雷克曼。
This is Kylie Brakeman.
安吉拉·杰里托娜。
Angela Gerritonna.
杰里米·科尔汉。
Jeremy Colhane.
帕特里克·麦克唐纳。
Patrick McDonald.
我们是《艺术家对艺术家对艺术家对艺术家》播客的主持人。
And we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artist podcast.
这是一个即兴角色喜剧播客，每周都会有一组新的艺术家来讨论他们的技艺。
The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft.
加入我们，和一群欧洲歌唱大赛的参赛者一起聊聊。
Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants.
有时候我们也会搞点万圣节的东西。
And we do a little Halloween sometimes.
教皇会打扮吗？
Does the pope dress up?
他在万圣节那天会眨眨眼。
He he winks on Halloween.
他会凑到麦克风跟前。
He gets right up next to the microphone.
你可以……
You can...
我听说你几乎能听到睫毛互相碰撞的声音。
I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other.
你从没见过意大利这么安静，就像教皇在万圣节眨眼的时候。
You never seen Italy so quiet as when the pope gets up to wink on Halloween.
每周四，在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你收听播客的地方，收听艺术家们层层叠叠的对话。
Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists every Thursday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
我是莱西·莫斯利，作家、演员、单口喜剧演员、创作者，也是《骗子女神》播客的主持人。
I'm Lacey Moseley, author, actor, stand up comedian, creator, and host of scam goddess podcast.
这是一个真实犯罪喜剧播客，专门讲抢劫、欺诈以及那些干这些事的人。
The true crime comedy podcast all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it.
每周我都会请来一位很棒的嘉宾。
Each week, I bring on an amazing guest.
哦，我骗了他们。
Oh, I scammed them.
什么？
What?
我可以跟你聊上一个小时。
I could talk to you for an hour.
你真是个天生的话痨。
You're a generational yapper
跟我一样。
like me.
所以我才
That's why I
不得不
had to
把聊天当成工作。
make yapping a job.
现在你可以在YouTube上观看我的完整节目。
And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube.
开始收听《骗子女神》，在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你收听播客的地方。
Start listening to scam goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
《骗子女神》。
Scam goddess.
错过了最新的Roland Martin Unfiltered播客吗？
Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast?
这是你错过的内容。
Here's what you missed.
不应该有任何执法机构没有随身摄像头。
There should not be a single law enforcement agency that does not have body cameras.
这是真的。
It's real.
黑人农民一直受到攻击。
Black farmers have been under attack.
这只是他们随便给任何东西贴上DEI标签的最新例子。
This is just the latest example of them just slapping DEI on anything.
这很真实。
It's raw.
我坐在这里想，他们是在把你们当傻子耍。
And I'm sitting here going, they are playing y'all for fools.
收听罗兰·马丁在黑人信息网络上的每日评论。
Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network.
并在iHeartRadio应用、苹果播客或
And download Roland Martin unfiltered on
任何你收听播客的地方下载《罗兰·马丁无删减》。
the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts Or
无论你在哪里收听播客。
wherever you get your podcasts.
Callzone Media。
Callzone Media.
你好，欢迎收听《更好的离线》。
Hello, welcome to better offline.
我是你的主持人，艾德·齐特龙。
I'm your host, Ed Zitron.
没错，各位。
That's right, folks.
我们又回来了。
We are back at it.
记得订阅我们的通讯。
Subscribe to the newsletter.
下载付费内容。
Download the premium.
下载这一集。
Download this episode.
下载所有集数。
Download all the episodes.
我需要这些下载量，不然的话，你们就买点周边吧，如果非要的话。
I need those downloads or else buy some merchandise if you must.
但今天，我们请到了GamersNexus的史蒂夫·伯克，来和我们聊聊一个叫“循环金融”的东西。
But today, we are joined by the mighty Steve Burke of GamersNexus to talk to us about something called Cycular finance.
循……
Cy...
循环……
Cycle...
循环？
Cycular?
这不是个圆圈。
It's not a circle.
这是个循环。
It's a cycle.
他们就是这么说的。
They said that.
这就是黄仁勋一直在说的良性循环，对吧？
This is the virtuous cycle, is it, that that Jensen Huang has been talking about?
那你为什么不跟我讲讲呢？
Why why don't you tell me?
那是……
It was...
你视频里提到了，但我想听听你怎么把它说得那么生动。
It came up in your video, but I wanna hear your eloquent way of putting it.
他们说他们知道，引用一下，“有些人会把这称为循环融资”，引用结束。
They said that they they know that, quote, some will refer to this as circular financing, end quote.
但如果你读他们的一些帖子，他们会谈到这是一种良性循环，就像你说的。
But if you read some of their posts, they talk about how it's a virtuous, as you said, cycle.
而且我们知道，循环不是圆圈。
And as we know, cycles are not circles.
对，没错。
That's Yeah.
那不是循环。
That's not cycles.
它们只是走了一个可能看起来像圆形的形状，但和圆圈不是一回事。
They just go in a shape that might be circular, but it's not the same thing as a circle.
最好别想太多，比如循环和自行车，自行车上所有东西都在做圆周运动。
It's it's really best you don't think too much about, like, cycle and and bicycle, and everything on a bicycle is moving in kind of a circular motion.
但这确实是另一回事。
But it's a specifically different thing.
他们说得非常清楚。
They made that very clear.
这就是……
This is...
所以这就是英伟达在上次财报中试图为那种明显是循环融资的做法辩护，他们要么投资别人，要么提供残值担保。
And so this is NVIDIA in their last earnings trying to justify what is obviously blatantly circular financing where they invest in someone or they provide residual guarantees.
我还想补充一点，他们说会为数据中心提供残值担保，但没说这到底意味着什么。
Now I just wanna also add that they're saying they'll provide residual guarantees with data centers, but not saying what that actually means.
很多文章都在猜测，哦，可能是这样那样。
There's lots of articles that are saying, oh, it could be this and that.
但英伟达实际上对这些什么都没说。
NVIDIA is not actually saying anything about these.
他们在一篇帖子里提到，最高可达25%，但没说这实际上会带来什么结果。
They've said in one post, it'd be up to 25%, but not what that would actually result in.
我注意到很多地方都是这样。
I've noticed this with a lot of it.
我是说，比如那个超级智能协议。
I mean, like, the superintelligence accord.
哦，天哪。
Oh, Christ.
这到底是什么东西？
What is this thing?
这是什么？我不想太早下结论。
What is this didn't wanna jump the gun.
抱歉。
I'm sorry.
请讲。
Please.
咱们直接进入正题吧。
Just let's get to it.
妈的
Fucking
那么……
So...
我是说，你也知道，特朗普政府召集了一些AI高管……
I mean, as you know, the Trump administration gathered some of the AI executives...
SI。
SI.
抱歉。
Sorry.
我已经搞砸了。
I fucked that up already.
SI。
SI.
他们发布了一份……
They've issued a...
他们发布了一项行政命令，要把政府文件里的“人工智能”改成“超级智能”，不过提前说清楚，这个命令没有约束力，也不会产生任何实际影响。
An executive order to rename artificial intelligence to superintelligence for purposes of government documents, and which just to get ahead of it is not binding and does not do anything.
然后……
And the...
我确实注意到那些公司都在名单上。
I I did notice that the company's on there.
比如Anthropic。
It's like Anthropic.
埃隆·马斯克也在场，代表他自己，还有他现在做的那些事情吧。
Elon Musk was on there representing, I guess, Elon Musk and whatever he does now.
黄仁勋也在上面签了名，你知道的，代表英伟达。
Jensen's signature on there, you know, for NVIDIA.
AMD没去，但他们后来跟进说很乐意支持并参与。
AMD was absent, but AMD did follow-up and say that they were happy to support and and participate.
看起来就是……
It just seemed to...
这感觉就像小组作业里那个什么都没做的同学，最后把论文交上去，还说我们很努力才完成了一样。
It felt the same as a group project when the one kid in the group who did actually nothing hands in the paper, you know, and says, we worked very hard on this.
AMD 这时候跳出来说，我们也很高兴能参与其中，尽管我们并没有被完全包括在内。
AMD is jumping in there to say, we're we're happy to be a part of this too even though we weren't really fully included.
这真是太奇怪了，因为他们还签了那个自我监管的文件，同意不承担任何法律约束，一点都没有。
It's such a bizarre thing because they also signed this self regulatory thing as well where they've agreed to do absolutely nothing legally binding in any way, shape, or form.
嗯，他们确实说过会自我监管。
Well, they did say that they would police themselves.
哦，那挺好的。
Oh, good.
而且我们也看到了，科技行业自我监管的效果有多好。
And as we've seen, look at how well regulated the tech industry is as a direct result of their regulation of themselves.
你知道那个 Elmo 的梗图吗？就是背景着火，他站在那儿说“我没事”的那个。
You know the Elmo meme where the background is on fire and his weight is?
知道。
Yes.
对。
Yes.
我现在脑子里就是那个画面。
That's kind of what I'm picturing right now.
我还喜欢的一点是，这些人真的……
What I liked about it as well is just how all of these guys who genuinely...
我说这话没有任何讽刺的意思。
I'm saying this without any irony or anything.
真的，这些公司的权力比美国政府还大。
Genuinely, these companies have more power than the United States government.
如果他们真用起来，确实是这样。
They actually do if they wielded it.
但所有人，就在特朗普说“签文件”的那一瞬间，
But all of them, the second, the absolute second Trump is like, sign the document.
我就……
I'm gonna...
我……
I...
你们所有人都必须亲吻戒指。
All of you must kiss the ring.
他们争先恐后地这么做。
They fall over themselves to do so.
我是说，你看到马克·扎克伯格和他谈话的视频了吗？
And I mean, did you see the video of Mark Zuckerberg and him talking?
哪一个？
Which which one?
我看到了……
I saw...
在白宫外面，他们聊着天，他和扎克伯格聊得特别开心。
Outside of the White House, they were talking, and him and him and Zuckerberg were yucking it up.
人们都说，扎克伯格差点忍不住笑出来。
And people were like, oh, Zuckerberg could barely hold his laughter in.
但实际上，特朗普一转身，扎克伯格看起来就像拉肚子了一样。
When actually what happened was the moment Trump turned away, Zuckerberg looked like he had diarrhea.
他就是……
He was just...
他看起来像是见到了上帝。
He he looked like he'd seen the face of God.
但最精彩的是，特朗普在背景里胡扯一些几乎说不通的东西。
But the best part was in the background of Trump warbling on about some shit that barely made sense.
达里奥·阿莫德看起来像是被一个小个子在腿上捅了一刀。
Dario Amade looked like he was being stabbed in the leg by a little man.
他明显在龇牙咧嘴。
He was, like, actively grimacing.
我确实注意到，达里奥被要求对记者说几句时，看起来非常……
I did notice I did notice that Dario, when he was asked to speak to the reporters for a moment, looked so...
我不知道他是感到矛盾，还是天生就那样……
I don't know if it was conflicted or if he's just naturally...
我理解。
Like, I get it.
就是那种天生的不自在，我懂。
Like, natural awkwardness, I get.
但在我看来，那真的不像是那种情况。
But that didn't really look like what that was to me.
他就是看起来很奇怪。
He just looks strange.
他看起来就像个怪胎。
He just looks like a weird freak.
我愿意这么叫他，因为Anthropic的某个人在教皇面前威胁要离场，因为他会……
And I'm willing to call him that because someone from Anthropic in front of the pope threatened to walk out because he would...
教皇不会接受机器有意识。
The pope would not accept that machines were conscious.
什么？
What?
好的。
Okay.
我……
I...
好的。
Okay.
这就是关键所在。
This is the this is the thing.
你对此感觉怎么样？
How are you feeling about this?
就个人层面来说，你现在每天看着这些，跟我一样，心里是什么感受？
Just on a personal level, how do you feel right now looking at this every day as I am?
很糟糕。
It's bad.
真的吗？
Really?
当英伟达在电话会议上说的时候，你知道，那个……
When when NVIDIA said on their call, you know, the...
有些人会把这称为循环融资，而且他们展示了这种利息……
Some will refer to this as circular financing, and and they showed this sort of interest...
那种自我意识，就一瞬间。
The self awareness for a second.
我真的有那么一刻，我暂停了电话会议，然后我就有点……
I I genuinely had a moment where I paused the call, and I just kinda...
我坐在那里想，哦，这要是真出问题，那可就糟了。
I sat there like, oh, this is gonna be really bad when it goes.
有……
There's...
那……
That...
我现在就是这种感觉，因为我们……
That's how I've been feeling right now because we've...
我觉得我们已经过了那个阶段，任何理性的人都不会再反对我提出的财务论点。
I think we've gone past the point where anyone rational is disagreeing with the financial argument I'm making.
就是说，我觉得那个讨论已经结束了。
Like, I think that that that ship has sailed.
但没人真的愿意接受这意味着什么。
But no one really wants to accept what it means.
而且这...
And it's...
就像...
Like, it...
他们...
They...
我对NVIDIA还有一点不理解的是，当你跟别人聊起这个，你会说，嘿。
The thing that I don't get with NVIDIA as well is when you talk to people about this, you're like, hey.
所以，他们一半以上的收入来自五家公司。
So, like, half or more of their revenue comes from five companies.
这些公司里，有一半到四分之三的公司需要借钱来买GPU。
Out of those companies, half of them to three quarters of them require debt to buy the GPUs.
十年期国债收益率飙升，意味着所有人的借贷成本都在上升。
Ten year treasuries are skyrocketing, which means the cost of borrowing for everyone is going more expensive.
总有一天，英伟达的收入会下降。
At some point, NVIDIA's revenue has to drop.
人们回应说，是的。
And people respond by saying, yeah.
但你知道，互联网泡沫之后情况还不错。
But, you know, things were okay after the dot com bubble.
然后我就想，好吧。
And it's like, okay.
但那时候发生了什么？
But what happened during that?
那时候到底发生了什么？
What happened during?
那段时间还不错。
It was good.
之后是一段相当长的时期。
After is a pretty long window.
互联网泡沫之后，大概有二十六年左右的时间，差不多吧。
You've got about twenty six years, give or take, I guess, a year for the after the dot com bubble.
而且，我觉得这跟现在的情况不太一样，因为我们现在面对的是GPU，而不是暗光纤，而且我之前说过，这些GPU并没有被安装。
And also, I just don't think that that really applies here because instead of Dark Fiber, we have GPUs that, as I've established, are not getting installed.
我的意思是，所以这是……
I mean, so this is...
对我来说，现在最大的问题之一就是……
I think for me, at this point, one of the biggest questions is just like...
我……
I...
我们一直在讨论这个，但问题是，GPU到底在哪里？
We've been talking about this, but it's the where are the GPUs?
对，没错。
And Right.
大家都想有这样的故事。
Everyone would love to have that story.
而且我觉得，到现在这个阶段……
And I I don't I don't think at this point...
我的意思是，你告诉我你在报道方面的想法，但我觉得除非有内部人士出来说，否则没人能搞清楚哪些仓库里真的堆着没用的GPU。
I mean, let me know what you what you think on the reporting side, but I don't think someone figures out this, like, oh, what warehouse or what warehouses realistically are GPU sitting in unused unless someone internal comes out and says it.
比如说，嘿，我是个……对。
Like, hey, I'm a Yeah.
叉车司机，你知道，在某某仓储公司，我们这里有1800个GPU服务器，你知道的。
Forklift driver, you know, at x y z warehousing, and and we have 1,800 GB or whatever GPU, you know, servers here.
因为不然的话，我只是……
Because otherwise, I just...
我觉得这些东西都捂得太严实了，高管圈子里是不会泄露出什么的。
I I would think all that stuff is so close to the chest that you're not you're not gonna have a leak from the executive circle.
而且那些囤积GPU的公司，我也不太清楚具体情况。
And the the companies that are warehousing it, it's also not clear to me.
所以如果微软买了一大堆GPU，然后萨蒂亚·纳德拉在镜头前说过，他手里的GPU比他能插电的“热服务器”还多。
So if Microsoft buys a ton of GPUs and then you have Satya Nadella who actually said on camera that he has more GPUs than he has, quote, warm shells, and, quote, that he can plug them into.
也就是说，我们知道他们的GPU数量超过了实际使用量。
Like, we know they have more GPUs than they're using.
这是他亲口说的。
He said that.
我不清楚的是，那些GPU到底在哪个环节闲置着。
What I don't know is where do those GPUs sit in that purgatory?
它们是在数据中心里但没通电吗？
Are they in a data center but without power?
不过那说不通，因为如果数据中心没电，那对他们来说其实很危险。
That wouldn't make sense, though, because if the data center didn't have power, that would actually be dangerous for them.
而且他还做了……
And and he also did...
他确实说了“温机壳”，在我看来，在你那边的情况下，我觉得唯一能让他这句话成立的情况，就是数据中心还没通电。
He did say warm shells, which to me, in your situation there, I think the only way that happens while his Warmshell statement is true is if it's a data center that doesn't have power yet.
但我就是觉得这不太可能发生。
And I I just don't see that happening.
你知道，因为那样的话，你大概就……
You know, like, because then you're probably...
你甚至都不被允许。
You're not even permitted.
所以就是……
So It's just...
再说，你去跟那些记者聊这个，想让他们谈谈，他们就会说，你知道，这真的是……
And again, you go to the various journalists about this and you try and make them talk about it and they go, you know, it really is...
这其实让我觉得挺可笑的。
This is actually what jokifies me.
就是当你试着跟同行聊的时候，他们就会说，对。
It's when you try and talk to your peers and they're like, yeah.
你知道，这确实挺糟糕的，但谁说得准呢？
You know, it's bad, I guess, but who's to say?
然后就像，好吧。
And it's just like, okay.
但我们可能已经卖出了价值203,100,000,000,000美元的GPU，这些GPU毫无用处，而他们还在计划买更多。
But we've sold possibly $203,100,000,000,000 dollars worth of GPUs that have gone nowhere, and they're planning to buy more.
这本身就是一个大新闻。
This this alone is a story.
而他们看着你，就像你……
And they look at you like you're...
那……
That...
就像你在给狗念代数一样。
Like you're reading algebra to a dog.
我的意思是，这就像……
I mean, it's it's like...
我觉得产品实物应该是存在的。
I feel like a product physically exists probably.
希望如此，从法律角度来说。
I hope so, legally speaking.
但是……
League...
如果它不存在，这纯粹就是资产负债表上的转移，那就太糟糕了。
Like, if it doesn't and this is just literally balance sheet transfers, that's so bad.
我也是这么觉得的。
I mean, that's how I feel too.
就是说，我觉得他们有一定的意识，而且……
It's like, I I think there's a certain level of awareness and...
我不觉得……
Like, I don't...
英伟达的人不傻，我觉得。
NVIDIA's people aren't stupid, I think.
而且看起来不太可能只是纯粹的资产负债表上的操作。
And it seems unlikely that it would be a pure balance sheet type of
我觉得他们就是有……
I think that they just have a...
如果让我猜的话，那些东西应该堆在台湾的仓库里。
If I had to guess, they're sitting in warehouses in Taiwan.
他们就是……
They just...
生产出来之后就直接存放在某个地方，然后就在……
That they get manufactured and they just get stored somewhere, and that's in...
就像，我们永远都见不到那些东西。
Like, we're never seeing those things.
而且，我是说，我之前……
And, I mean, I was...
我跟Guardians那边汇报过，我对此应该低调一点，但他们……
I report with the Guardians, I should down about this, but their...
微软几个月前，在线的人工智能容量还不到两吉瓦。
Microsoft, as of a few months ago, only had less than two gigawatts worth of AI capacity online.
而且大部分都是H100和H200。
And most of that was h one hundreds and h two hundreds.
绝大多数都是。
Like, the vast majority of it.
大家没意识到这有多糟糕，因为这意味着2025年卖出的Blackwell芯片大部分都没地方用。
And it's like people people don't realize how bad that is because it means that most of the Blackwell sold in 2025 have gone nowhere.
这意味着今年卖出的任何芯片都没地方用。
It means that any of the chips sold this year have gone nowhere.
布莱斯·埃尔德前几天在《金融时报》上报道说，有位分析师称，今年和明年卖出的芯片有50%都没地方去。
Bryce Elder at the Feet report the other day that, there was an analyst who said that 50% of the chips sold this year and next year have nowhere to go.
而且这……
And it's...
所以这就好像，为什么……
So it's like, why...
我是说，我们现在做这些到底是为了什么，这可能是目前最大的问题，但没人真的想谈这个。
I mean, why are we doing this is probably the biggest question right now, and no one really wants to talk about it.
嗯，你知道，在消费者这边，有件非常有趣的事。
Well, you know, on the the consumer side, there's something really interesting.
我……
I...
我们正在做一个相关报道，我能……？
We're working on a story on this, which I can I can?
基本上，我可以提前透露一下。
Basically, I mean, I can share it in advance.
对。
But Yeah.
我们收到一封邮件，是关于一个……
We got an email from someone about a...
你熟悉Micro Center吧，那个大型零售商？
You're familiar with Micro Center, big retailer?
对。
Yes.
所以，对于不了解的人来说，Micro Center 是一家大型零售商，卖电脑配件的。
So for anyone who doesn't know, Micro Center is a gigantic retailer, computer parts.
规模很大，我是说，相对而言。
Gigantic, I guess, in a in a relative sense.
在电脑配件这个领域，他们算是大公司。
For the computer parts world, they're big.
而且他们已经开始使用表格了，我们已经确认了，就是针对购买 5090 显卡的顾客，这是英伟达的旗舰消费级 GPU，算是那种。
And they have, and we've confirmed, started using forms for customers buying 50 nineties, which is this NVIDIA's flagship consumer GPU sort of.
它有点介于工作站、专业消费者和普通消费者之间。
It's kind of workstation prosumer consumer.
这些表格要求店员从顾客那里获取一些信息，比如政府颁发的身份证件，来确认他们的身份。
So these forms, they ask the staff to obtain from the customer things like a government issued ID to prove who they are.
购买者，也就是走进店里买这块显卡或包含它的台式机的顾客，必须证明他们是最终用户，或者如果是为别人买的，他们需要获得最终用户的认证，确保这个设备不会被出口、不会被转售，并且完全符合那个管制清单和出口管制法律。
The purchaser, the customer walking into the store buying this GPU or desktops containing it, have to certify that they're the end user or if it's for someone else that they've obtained certification from that end user that this device is not being exported, not being resold, and is in full compliance with, you know, the covered list and export control laws.
而且这是目前Micro Center特有的做法。
And this is a a Micro Center specific thing right now.
比如说，你在亚马逊或者Newegg上买5090，他们不会让你填这种表格，所以至少目前是Micro Center特有的。
Like, you go on Amazon and buy a fifty ninety or Newegg, they don't make you fill out a form like this, so it's Micro Center specific for at least the time being.
但我觉得有意思的是，我们现在面临的情况是，5090作为一款消费级产品发布，却很难买到，因为所有的芯片都被数据中心产品拿走了，而那些产品可能还堆在仓库里。
But it's interesting to me, I guess, because we're now in a situation where 50, which were launched as a consumer part, that's been hard to get because all the silicon is being taken for these data center parts that are probably sitting in a warehouse.
这款产品现在这么难买，以至于你买它的时候可能需要提供政府颁发的身份证件和认证。
That part is now so difficult to obtain that you have to potentially provide government ID and certifications in order to buy it.
光有信用卡都不行，这让我觉得挺疯狂的。
Like, a credit card isn't enough, which is wild to me.
我是说，这到底
I mean, what
是为了什么？
this to do?
这是为了阻止那些偷偷摸摸的中国人拿走它吗？
Is this to stop the sneaky Chinese from taking it?
我觉得这大概就是它的主要用途吧。
I think that's probably the sort of the build usage of it.
你说呢？
You know?
就像，
Like,
中国真的是靠这个来搞这些GPU的吗？
that's that really what China is doing to get these GPUs?
感觉就像是在泰坦尼克号沉没时，往船边贴个创可贴一样。
Feels like slapping a Band Aid on the side of the Titanic as it sinks up on the ocean.
嗯，我是说，英伟达自己有个员工在台湾被拘留了，还涉嫌走私。
Well, I mean, NVIDIA had one of its own people detained in Taiwan and implicated in smuggling.
不是
Not
很久了。嗯，今天又爆出更多走私的事，我还没来得及看呢。
long Well, there's more smuggling stuff that came out today that I've yet to even fucking read.
我看到了那些标题。
I saw the headlines.
还有更多破事。
More shit going on.
不过真的挺搞笑的。
But it is really funny, though.
就是……
Is...
我大概转述一下彭博社的标题，说的是英伟达的海外销售……
I'm paraphrasing the Bloomberg headline about it, but it was NVIDIA's overseas sales of...
哦，抱歉。
Oh, sorry.
英伟达的GPU流入中国，说明尽职调查有漏洞。
NVIDIA GPUs getting to China shows holes in due diligence.
不是说，不是说，嘿。
Not like not like, hey.
英伟达知道这事在发生吗？
Has NVIDIA known that this is happening?
到现在这已经很明显了。
Which is very obvious by now.
就像，他……
Like, he's...
去年年底彭博社有篇报道，里面有一张他和一家新加坡数据中心公司CEO的合影，那家公司就是把芯片运到中国的，照片里他们在一个大派对上喝酒。
There was the Bloomberg story from end of last year where there was a picture of him with the CEO of a Singaporean data center company that was sending the chips to China, like, having drinks with her at a big party.
那照片拍得还挺正式的。
Like, it was like a professionally taken photo.
大家看了都说，是啊。
And people were like, yeah.
你知道，这还是个悬而未决的问题。
You know, it's still an open question.
你是不是故意一直提彭博社来气我，Ed？
Are you just referencing Bloomberg repeatedly to hurt me, Ed?
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
我提它是因为有时候他们……
I'm referencing it because the times they...
通常，他们最……
Usually, they most...
他们最大的业务是威胁要起诉你使用唐纳德·特朗普的视频，我明白。
Their biggest business is threatening to sue you for using videos of Donald Trump, I realize.
但在他们不忙的时候，他们有时也做新闻。
But on on their off time, they do journalism sometimes.
好的。
Okay.
明白了。
Got it.
我也觉得很不好受，因为法律那边的情况不一样。
I feel really bad as well because, like, the legal side is different.
但不管怎么说，那都是胡说八道。
But nevertheless, that was a bullshit.
不过有意思的是，怎么没人……
But it is funny though how no...
我们已经……
We've...
好了，就这样。
There we go.
这是第二个了。
That's the second one.
这就像另一件没人愿意真正谈论的事情。
It's like another thing that no one really wants to talk about.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
首先，嘿，数据中心其实并没有像他们说的那样真正在建设，芯片也没有装进去。
First of all, it's, hey, the data centers aren't really getting built, like they say, and the chips aren't being put in them.
其次，英伟达百分之百知道这些芯片流到了中国，但似乎没采取任何行动，或者可能他们其实想这样。
And the second is NVIDIA is 100% aware that they're getting these chips to China and doesn't appear to be doing anything or alternatively might want
想这样？
it to?
我觉得这就是我对Micro Center那个表格唯一存疑的地方。
I think that's the one sort of asterisk I have on that form from Micro Center.
我给他们发了邮件，他们没回，但我问的是：Micro Center是自愿实施这个表格的，还是英伟达施压说你们必须这么做？
I emailed them, they didn't respond, but I emailed them to ask, did Micro Center decide to implement this form or did NVIDIA apply pressure and say you need to do this?
你知道，也许政府通过设备的序列号追查到了Micro Center的供货渠道什么的。
You know, maybe maybe the government traced the serial number of a device back to Micro Center supply or something.
还是政府要求你们做这个表格？
Or did the government ask you to do this form?
但他们一直没回复我。
And they haven't answered me.
但是……
But the...
至于英伟达的情况，我就不清楚了。
In the case of NVIDIA, I don't know.
也许有某种……
Maybe there's like a...
你看，我们也在努力。
Look, we're trying.
这就是我们让实体零售商用的那张表格。
Here's this piece of paper we're making a physical retailer use.
但说到底，我真的不知道这些GPU流向哪里。
But but ultimately though, yeah, I don't know where the GPUs are going.
不过我知道的是，自从上次我们聊过之后，GPU的一个重要组成部分——内存——情况变得更糟了，就是那些三GB的高密度模块。
What I do know is that a big component of the GPUs, the memory, has gotten into even worse shape since the last time we spoke, which is these three gigabyte higher density modules.
这又是什么情况？
Now What was this?
所以从定价角度来看，GPU显存比如GDDR7的供应情况还在持续恶化。
So the the memory supply for GPU VRAM, like GDDR7, has continued to worsen from a pricing standpoint where the...
目前英伟达在消费级显卡上主要用两种类型的显存模块，这些……
There's two kind of main types of modules that NVIDIA uses right now on consumer cards, which...
我现在每次提到消费级产品都会有点犹豫，因为RTX 5090真的……
And I kinda hesitate on consumer every time now because the fifty ninety is really...
它已经被很多搞家庭AI的人抢购一空了。
It's been bought up by a lot of sort of home AI type of people.
但是……
But it's...
他们有一种更高密度的三GB模块。
They've got a higher density three gigabyte module.
你可以在RTX 6000 Pro上找到这种模块，它的价格直接从英伟达的8500美元翻倍到了16000美元。
You'll find those on the RTX 6,000 Pro, which has just doubled in price from $8,500 to $16,000 from NVIDIA directly.
然后还有密度较低的2GB模块。
And then there's lower two gigabyte density modules.
所以高密度模块的价格上涨了，供应也减少了，你知道，这类模块主要只有三家供应商。
And so the pricing's gone up and availability has gone down on the higher density modules where, you know, you really only have sort of three main suppliers for them.
如果你看看美光现在在内存上的利润率，我不知道你前几天有没有看到。
And if you look at Micron's margin on its memory now, I don't know if you saw that the other day.
是不是涨了……
Did it go...
我其实……
I actually...
我看到它更高了。
I saw it was higher.
他们现在是……
They're at...
我觉得是88%。
I think it's 88 percent.
消费级的大概有90%的利润率。
It's about 90% margin on consumer grade.
美光的情况还不错。
Micron is doing okay.
哦，我还挺担心他们的。
Oh, I was worried about them.
你只是觉得心里过意不去
You just feel bad
毕竟他们拿了纳税人几十亿的补贴吗？
about taking billions in taxpayer subsidies as well?
但谁不是这样做的呢？
But who doesn't do that?
很好。
Good.
不错。
Good.
那就好，我很高兴……
Well, I'm glad that...
而且我很高兴我们针对那些在税务上做手脚的人进行攻击，但我说的是个人，不是公司。
And I'm glad that we attack people for doing dodgy things on their taxes, but I mean people strictly, not companies.
公司必须能够这样做。
Companies must be able to do that.
公司需要尽可能多的漏洞。
Companies need as many loopholes as possible.
我是梅丽莎·杰尔钦，在我的新播客《她怎么了》中，我每周都会带来新的故事和对话。
I'm Melissa Jeltsin, and in my new podcast, what happened to her, I'm bringing you new stories and conversations every week.
关于那些死亡被过早判定为自杀的女性的故事。
Stories about women whose deaths were too quickly ruled a suicide.
她开始担心，并为自己的安全感到害怕。
She was starting to get worried and get scared for her safety.
生存的故事。
Stories of survival.
坦白说，我和她之间唯一的区别就是一点运气，因为按理说，我应该已经死了。
The only difference between me and her, frankly, was a little bit of luck because by all rights, I should be dead.
那些别人都说已经结案的案子。
Cases that everyone else called closed.
他们没法定她的罪，对吧？
They can't convict her, right?
你看，她有那么多的证据。
Like, she has so much evidence.
这些故事都有一个相同的起点。
These stories all start in the same place.
那就是一个女人被一个不相信她、不保护她、看不见她的制度辜负了。
With a woman failed by a system that didn't believe her, that didn't protect her, that didn't see her.
任何孩子都不该经历那种事。
No child should ever experience that.
而那时候我们还是婴儿。
And we were babies.
她做了那么多勇敢的事，站出来公开讲述，结果他只被判了一年。
She did all of these brave things and came out and spoke about it, and he got a year.
你永远不知道那个魔鬼是谁，因为他戴着伪装。
You never know who that devil is because he's wearing a disguise.
有时候，那伪装就是一身警服。
Sometimes it's a police uniform.
在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你收听播客的地方，听听她的遭遇。
Listen to what happened to her on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
丽莎，我们应该告诉他们我们的新节目。
Lisa, we should tell them about our new show.
天哪，莱克西。
Oh my god, Lexi.
我们有个新播客。
We have a new podcast.
名字叫《别》
It's called Don't
对我撒谎》。
Lie to Me.
我是莱克西·伊瓦努。
I'm Lexi Iwanu.
我们是最好的朋友，相差二十二
We're two best friends, twenty two
岁，但心贴得很近。
years apart, but so close at heart.
我是丽莎·迪朱利奥，年纪大的那个，所以我们的共同话题差别很大，偶尔意见也不一样。
And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
到了我这个五十多岁的年纪，什么都经历过了。
And at this point in my fifties, I've lived it all.
我不会靠吵架来解决问题。
I'm not gonna get anywhere fighting.
那太不可思议了。
That is wild.
我学到了
I learned
今天关于你的事。
that about you today.
现在三十多岁的我，作为New Shoes, Good Taste的创始人，这是我的事业，而且我总有话要说。
Now in my thirties, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business, and I've always got something to say.
如果男人们能坦诚面对这一点，世界上就会和平得多。
If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world.
我们会聊约会、感情、美容、变老，还有变得更聪明。
We're gonna talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser.
我们是最好的朋友，但我们并不总是意见一致。
We're best friends, but we don't always agree.
因为你告诉过我们你有多随和。
Because you told us how accommodating you are.
显然，我会尽力去抗争，但我的抗争是有限的。
Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight.
别骗我。
Don't lie to me.
别骗我。
Don't lie to me.
别骗我。
Don't lie to me.
别骗我。
Don't lie to me.
别骗我。
Don't lie to me.
骗子。
Liar.
请在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple Podcasts 或任何你收听播客的平台收听。
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
我真的不在乎。
I don't really care.
我是 Lacey Moseley，作家、演员、单口喜剧演员、创作者，也是《Scam Goddess》播客的主持人。
I'm Lacey Moseley, author, actor, stand up comedian, creator, and host of scam goddess podcast.
这是一个真实犯罪喜剧播客，讲的都是抢劫、诈骗，还有那些干这些事的人。
The true crime comedy podcast all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it.
每周我都会请来一些很棒的嘉宾，比如柯南·奥布莱恩、爱荷华·黛布拉、拉莫恩·莫里斯，还有妮可·拜尔。
Each week, I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debra, Lamorne Morris, and Nicole Byer.
哦，我骗了他们。
Oh, I scammed them.
什么？
What?
我可以跟你聊
I could talk to you
聊上一个小时。
for an hour.
你真是个天生的话痨
You're a generational yapper
跟我一样。
like me.
这就是为什么我
That's why I
不得不
had to
把聊天当成工作。
make yapping a job.
而且骗局五花八门。
And the scams run the gamut.
我说的是从十九世纪一直到今天的各种骗局。
I'm talking about scams from the eighteen hundreds all the way up to today.
我还会提醒你，保护你免受骗子的侵害。
I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers.
给爷爷奶奶打个电话吧。
Call your grandparents.
告诉爸妈别再乱点链接了，拜托了。
Tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please.
现在你可以在YouTube上看到我节目的完整剧集了。
And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube.
如果有骗局，我在这里保护你，也在这里陪你一起笑。
If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you, and I'm also here to laugh with you.
所以，如果你喜欢乐趣，喜欢喜剧，喜欢学习并保护自己免受罪犯侵害，那就开始在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcast或任何你收听播客的地方收听Scam Goddess吧。
So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to scam goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.
嗨。
Hi.
我是Kylie Brakeman。
This is Kylie Brakeman.
Angela Gerritana。
Angela Gerritana.
Jeremy Colhane。
Jeremy Colhane.
Patrick McDonald。
Patrick McDonald.
我们是《艺术家聊艺术家》播客的主持人。
And we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on podcast.
这是一个即兴角色喜剧播客，每周都有新的艺术家小组来讨论他们的创作。
The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft.
欢迎加入我们的健康生活博主小组。
Join us for a panel of wellness influencers.
我尝试做的是假装写日记。
What I try to do is faux journal.
我不知道。
I don't know.
你们听说过假装写日记吗？
Have you guys heard of faux journaling?
那就是阅读。
It's reading.
那叫阅读。
It's called reading.
所以你是……
So you're...
所以我们不再用那个词了。
So we don't like to use that word anymore.
好的。
Okay.
一群《纽约客》的漫画家。
A panel of New Yorker cartoonists.
你们上过特里·格罗斯的Peloton课程吗？
Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class?
没有。
No.
我也一直很想上。
I've been dying too.
真抱歉。
I'm so sorry.
我，我，我看到了
I'm I'm I'm seeing
《千纸鹤》的朗读会，
a reading of Sadako and the
是奥德拉·麦克唐纳在第十四街的仙境书店办的。
thousand thousand paper cranes by Audra McDonald at the Wonderland bookstore on fourteenth.
太夸张了。
That's crazy.
我昨天也去了仙境书店，
I went to the Wonderland bookstore yesterday,
还听到诺拉·琼斯朗读《零三十》呢。
and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of zero thirty.
不会吧。
No way.
不过我们得去那家最后的书店。
We have to come to the last bookstore, though.
金·凯特罗尔在朗读《昨天》的吉他谱。
Kim Cattrall is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday.
一个欧洲歌唱大赛参赛者的小组讨论。
A panel of Eurovision participants.
我们有时候也会搞点万圣节活动。
And we do a little Halloween sometimes.
教皇会打扮吗？
Does the pope dress up?
他在万圣节那天会眨眨眼。
He he winks on Halloween.
他会凑到麦克风跟前。
He gets right up next to the microphone.
你可以……
You can...
我听说你几乎能听到睫毛互相碰撞的声音。
I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other.
你从没见过意大利这么安静，就像教皇在万圣节站起来眨眼的时候那样。
You never seen Italy so quiet as when the pope gets up to wink on Halloween.
请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你收听播客的地方收听艺术家们的节目。
Listen to artists artists on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
错过了最新的Roland Martin unfiltered播客吗？
Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast?
这是你错过的内容。
Here's what you missed.
争论的焦点是，你想赢吗？
And the argument is, do you want to win?
如果你不赢，你就没有权力。
If you don't win, you have no power.
这是真的。
It's real.
那些人正是我常说的，投票违背自己经济利益的人，他们抱怨的正是自己正在享受的东西。
Those are the very people who I always say vote against their own economic interests, and they complain about the very thing they're receiving.
这很直接。
It's raw.
我知道跨性别运动员的问题在很多黑人男性中并不受欢迎。
I knew that the issue of transgender athletes was not going well with a lot of black men.
罗兰·马丁无滤镜。
Roland Martin unfiltered.
我发火了。
I went off.
我说，这正是我在说的。
I said, this is exactly what I'm talking about.
你们会对香奈儿大喊大叫，但你们却不想看到一家同样规模的黑人奢侈品牌。
Y'all gonna scream at Chanel, but you don't wanna see a black luxury company in the same vein.
收听罗兰·马丁的每日评论，
Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on
在黑人信息网络上。
the Black Information Network.
12个席位。
12 seats.
这些席位正在向南方转移。
Those are moving south.
所以，如果你们是民主党人，不要等到2030年，你们最好现在就在南方全力以赴。
So if you Democrats, you don't wait till twenty thirty, you better be hitting the ground going hard in the South now.
下载Roland Martin unfiltered，
And download Roland Martin unfiltered on
在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcast上。
the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast.
或者你收听播客的任何地方。
Or wherever you get your podcasts.
这都是我在准备。
This is all me queuing up.
你听说了那个元故事吗？
Did you hear about the meta story?
哦，不。
Oh, no.
哪个……
Which...
什么……
What it...
是不是我……
Was it I...
是好事吗？
Is it good?
不是。
It's not.
Meta一直在利用研发税收抵免，试图把价值数十亿美元的数据中心从他们的税单上减掉。
The meta has been using a the r and d tax credit to try and take billions of dollars worth of data centers off of their taxes.
基本上就是通过声称这是一个可能失败的项目的研究开发费用，来获得税收减免。
Basically, a tax rebate by saying that they are an r and d expense for a project that may fail.
哇，真的假的。
Oh, wow.
不会吧。
No.
我没听说这周有报道说这个事。
I didn't You hear times about put this out this week.
就是……
It's just...
再说，到底得有多少可疑的事发生，大家才会觉得，好吧。
Again, how many dodgy things need to happen for people to be like, okay.
也许这事儿有问题。
Maybe this is dodgy.
也许这事儿很糟糕。
Maybe this is bad.
因为就连微中心那事儿，当然那些东西是被谁买走了，谁知道呢。
Because even the micro center thing, sure those things are getting bought up by, like, whoever.
它们被各种小AI怪人买走，理论上，中国人也能拿到。
They're getting bought up by whatever whatever little AI perverts might buy them, and theoretically, the Chinese could get them.
我不知道。
I don't know.
但确实有真实途径让中国人拿到这些芯片。
But we have a real way the Chinese are getting these chips.
就是，正在发生。
Like, it's happening.
可能通过马来西亚或新加坡，或者……
It's probably through Malaysia or Singapore or...
我……
I...
还有别的国家。
There's another country out there.
台湾、澳门、新加坡，对。
Taiwan, Macau, Singapore Yeah.
是很常见的入境口岸。
Are pretty common ports of ingress.
而且，对，还有一个问题就是，搞出口管制到底有没有意义，或者……
And, yeah, there's a whole question too of, like, is there even any point to try and export control or...
我不知道。
I don't know.
我……
I...
去年我们聊到这个话题的时候，我得出的结论是，我真的不太确定。
When we talked about it back last year, the conclusion I came to was I'm not really sure.
我觉得自己没资格判断该不该有相关法律。
I don't feel qualified to judge if there should or shouldn't be a law on it.
但我确实觉得可以说的是，如果要有这些管制，它们应该合理，而且可能得真正执行。
But what I do feel is fair to say is if we're going to have them, they should make sense and probably be actually enforced.
不然的话，有什么意义呢？
Otherwise, what's the point?
而且，是的，看起来我们在政府层面有点缺乏跟进，或者在公司层面缺乏执行。
And, yeah, it seems like we've got kinda sort of a a lack of follow through, you know, at either the government level or a lack of enforcement at the company level.
但是
But
我的意思是，还有这个问题，这是贾斯托·达里奥，我的一个非常好的朋友，他写的东西是……
I mean, also, the the question, this is Just Dario, a great great friend of mine who writes has the single worst...
我很喜欢这个人。
Like, I love the guy.
他是我最喜欢的人之一。
He's one of my favorite people.
他写的设计博客是我见过最糟糕的，但他现在把内容从他那里移走了。
Has the single worst design blog I've ever seen, but he now moves stuff off of him.
广告太多了。
So many ads.
这真是疯狂。
It's true true to crazy.
但他做得非常好的一点是，他一直在密切关注英伟达，卡卡西和其他人也在做同样的事情，就是英伟达如何改变其销售记录方式，以及如何计算某笔交易的去向。
But the thing that he's done very well is he's been looking at NVIDIA very intensely and Kakashi and other guys have doing this as well, where it's the way that NVIDIA has changed how it puts in its sales, how it counts where something was going.
以前他们会说，哦，是的，我们10%的销售去了新加坡。
It used to be it say, oh yeah, 10% of our sales went to Singapore.
但几个季度前他们改变了做法，现在是根据购买公司的总部所在地来统计。
But what they changed a few quarters ago was it's now the event, the HQ of the company buying them.
哦，对。
Oh yeah.
所以现在就像，哦，是的，我们90%的销售都去了美国。
That's so it's like, oh yeah, like 90% of our sales go to America.
而且我们都知道，在美国注册一家有限责任公司真的很难。
And as we all know, it's really hard to start an LLC.
所以，这几乎是不可能的。
So, it's really impossible.
这差不多是……
It's about
200。
200
怎么
How
我会说，那是几百万美元。
would I put, it's millions of dollars.
不是一百美元和五分钟的事。
It's not $100 and five minutes.
有很多公司立刻就能做到这一点。
There are multiple companies that do this immediately.
有趣的是，如果这笔钱中有相当一部分来自中国——我不知道具体有多少——那最终会消失，一旦中国复制美国并停止AI泡沫，或者当他们真正转向自己的芯片时。
And it's just funny because if it turns out a sizable amount of this money is coming from China, which I don't know how much it would be, that will eventually go away once China just copies America and stopping doing the AI bubble, or when they truly move to their own chips.
但与此同时，中国似乎并不难获得这些。
But at the same time, it doesn't seem like China has any trouble getting them.
你知道，
You know,
不仅如此，我还……
not only that, but I also...
我遇到过……
I've had a...
我见过很多Anthropic和其他这些大语言模型公司……
I've seen a lot of the Anthropic and these other LM company...
模型公司的帖子，他们抱怨说他们的……
Model company posts where they complain about how they...
嗯，至少按照他们的说法，他们的模型被偷了。
Well, at least according to them, their models are being stolen.
他们总是把矛头指向中国，说中国的公司在偷他们的模型，这就像人们一直以来对从中国出来的制造业的评论一样，总是说……
And they'll always point to China and the companies in China as stealing their models, and which is just like what people have always said forever about manufacturing coming out of China in terms of sort of the...
这就像……的替罪羊。
It's it's like the scapegoat of...
人们总是说那是抄袭的。
That's just what people point to is copycat.
但事实是，现在中国有很多非常优秀的工程成果。
But the truth of matter is, these days, there's a lot of really good engineering coming out of China.
但让我觉得有意思的是，这些大语言模型公司，他们还是用老眼光看中国，觉得中国就是来偷他们东西的。
But what's interesting to me is how these LLM companies, they they still draw upon this old image of China and its sourcing for what it...
就是偷他们的知识产权吧。
Its IP, I guess.
这些公司，比如Anthropic、OpenAI和Meta，他们自己就是靠偷别人的东西起家的，然后居然还有脸指着别的公司说，你在逆向工程或者偷我们的知识产权。
And these are companies like Anthropic and, you know, OpenAI and Meta who are in the business of stealing everything made by anybody ever, and they then have the gall to point at literally any other company and say, you're reverse engineering or stealing our IP.
我就是……
I just...
我真的很难理解，为什么我要觉得愧疚。
I have a really hard time reconciling why I should feel bad.
比如说，把中国和美国这些因素都抛开。
Like, take the China and The US and the whatever out of it.
把所有地缘政治的因素都抛开。
Take all the geopolitics out.
如果一家公司把那么多作者、音乐家和其他人的作品都吸收了，然后他们的LLM知识产权被竞争对手侵犯了，我为什么要感到难过呢？
Why should I feel bad if a company that has ingested all these authors and musicians and everyone else's work then feels like their IP for their LLM has been infringed upon by a competitor?
你知道吗，这就像是在说，让我在乎一下吧。
You know, it's like, make me care.
嗯，另外，我觉得这里面也有一个相当……
Well, also, the other thing is is I think there's also a fair...
相当大的排外成分。
Fairly large layer of xenophobia to it.
我还觉得……
I also think...
这里我引用一下我女朋友的话。
Paraphrasing my girlfriend here.
美国太想念苏联了。
America misses The USSR so bad.
哦。
Oh.
哦，我们怀念那种跟俄罗斯对抗的感觉。
Oh, we miss having we miss having a, like, an argument with Rush.
哦，现在没有了。
Oh, we don't have an anymore.
我们太怀念有对手的日子了，以至于开始跟伊朗找茬，而伊朗还在推特上嘲讽美国，这让所有人都很尴尬。
We we miss having an adversary so much we started shit with Iran who is dabbing on America on Twitter, which is embarrassing for everyone.
但这个蒸馏的问题……
But this distillation thing...
所以，史蒂夫，我猜你指的是那些中国模型用ChatGPT和Claude的输出进行训练。
And so, Steve, I assume what you mean is like the models, like Chinese models training off of outputs from Chad GPT and Claude.
他们是这么说的。
That's what they claim.
关于这个，有两点。
So here's two things for this.
第一，你说得完全对。
One, you're completely right.
谁在乎呢？
Who gives a fuck?
哦哦，突然这个偷东西的机器不喜欢被偷了？
Oh oh, suddenly the stealing machine doesn't like when it's stolen from?
你打算怎么办，混蛋？
What are you gonna do about it, bitch?
你为什么不从别人那里蒸馏？
Why don't you distill from other people?
这不是偷窃。
It isn't theft.
这太荒谬了。
It's ridiculous.
而且这也很愚蠢，因为他们的论点是，是我们的模型生成了这些输出，所以我们拥有它们。
And it's so silly as well because their argument is, well, it's our models that created the outputs and thus we own them.
就好像，好吧。
It's like, okay.
那你们训练用的那些破玩意儿是谁创造的？
Well, who created the shit you trained on?
操。
Fuck.
难道是从空气里蹦出来的吗？
Did it pop out the fucking air?
难道
Did
我是说，如果我闯进别人家，帮他们个忙，偷了他们的LG电视，然后另一个小偷又从我这儿偷走了，我觉得作为最初的小偷，我很难去抱怨这事儿。
the I mean, if if I break into someone's house and I do them a favor and steal their LG television and then a different thief steals that from me, I feel like it's kinda hard for me to cry about it as the original thief.
你懂吧？
You know?
我是说，我……
I mean, I...
嗯，答案是你们俩都是罪犯，但其中一个更有意思。
Well, the answer would be both of you would be criminals, but one would be the funnier criminal.
就是，这事儿确实有点好笑，但还有另一个没人能真正量化的点，就是他们的收入里有多少是来自蒸馏的。
Like, there there was a level of funniness to it, but there's also another thing that no one really can quantify yet which is how much of their revenue is a result of distillation.
因为Anthropic这周泄露的S1文件，哦，抱歉，是上周，里面说他们大概20%的收入来自海外。
Because Anthropic in their S1 that leaked this week, oh sorry last week even, is they are they're saying that like 20% of their revenue or something comes from overseas.
所以，我的意思是，其中一部分可能来自澳大利亚，显然他们在澳大利亚有大量听众，我也不知道为什么。澳大利亚的听众们，如果你们知道什么信息，请发邮件到easybetteroffline.com，或者对澳大利亚的朋友们说，EZ就行。
So, and I mean, some of that might be Australia, apparently they have a huge Australian, I don't know why, Australian listeners, if you have any information, please email me easybetteroffline dot com or EZ for those of you in Australia.
但另一件事是，如果他们的收入里有几亿甚至几十亿美元来自蒸馏，我一点也不会惊讶。
But the other thing is, is I wouldn't be surprised if like hundreds of millions or billions of dollars came from the distillation.
如果真是这样，他们其实需要这种情况继续下去。
And if that's the case, they kind of need this to continue.
我还会说，如果蒸馏占的比例一定很大，那他们怎么可能不知道呢？
I will also argue that if it must be quite a large share, in which case, how can they not tell?
如果答案是中国人太狡猾了，那听起来就像是他们在创新上超过了你们。
And if the answer is the Chinese are too sneaky, well, sounds like they're out innovating you.
听起来你们是怕他们在创新上超过你们吧。
Sounds like you're terrified of them out innovating you.
为什么你们不，我不知道，为什么你们不蒸馏他们的模型呢？
Why don't you I don't know why don't you distill off of their models?
其实，我刚刚才想到这一点。
In fact, that just occurred to me.
为什么他们不蒸馏那些模型，或者他们自己的模型，然后做出更便宜的模型呢？
Why don't they distill off those models or their own models and make cheaper models, right?
他们肯定几乎可以……
They surely they could almost as...
你看，这里有个问题。
See, there's a problem.
什么问题？
What's the problem?
嗯，你刚才说了“更便宜”这个词。
Well, you just said the word cheaper.
哦，对。
Oh, right.
我的错。
My bad.
不。
No.
那不对。
That's wrong.
什么……
What...
嗯……
Well...
而且现在还有……
And now also...
那你真的研究过博通吗？
So have you really looked into Broadcom at all?
你得看看
You had to look at
我十，Skyland那个？
I 10, Skyland thing?
我担心你为什么现在特别提起他们。
Afraid of why you're bringing them up specifically right now.
嗯，我提起他们的原因，其实我很期待和你聊这个，就是博通现在正在模仿英伟达的做法。
Well, the reason I'm bringing them up, I'd be looking forward to talking to you about this actually, is Broadcom is currently doing an NVIDIA impression.
他们真的很想学英伟达那套。
They're really desperate to do NVIDIA style.
所以他们现在做的是……
So what they are doing is they have now...
所以Anthropix s one，他们有4130亿美元的不可取消承诺，这对一家收入只有48亿美元的公司来说是非常好的。
So Anthropix s one, they have $413,000,000,000 worth of uncancelable commitments, which is very good for a company that have 4,800,000,000 in revenue.
抱歉，去年是46亿。
Sorry, 4,600,000,000 last
年
year
现在，其中8161.2亿美元是给博通的。
Now and lost $8,161,200,000,000 of that is to Broadcom.
博通最大的客户现在是Anthropic和谷歌，都是用于TPU，大部分都流向Anthropic，还有OpenAI的jalapeno芯片。
Broadcom, their largest customers are now Anthropic and Google both for TPUs, all of them mostly going to Anthropic and also OpenAI's jalapeno chip.
我们越少想或说这个越好。
The less we think about that or say that the better.
所以现在，博通的Hoktan正在额外筹集600亿美元，继续做更多这样的事。
So right now, Hoktan of Broadcom is actually raising $60,000,000,000 more to just keep doing more of this.
因此，这给整个内存市场带来了另一个压力，对HP内存的需求也增加了，都怪该死的博通。
And so we have this another pressure on the overall RAM market, more demands of the HP RAM market because of fucking Broadcom.
这也挺奇怪的，因为博通并不真正做消费级产品，你会觉得这对他们来说应该更有利。
And so it's weird as well because Broadcom doesn't really consumer gear, you'd think that this would work out better for them.
但他们的利润率更差。
But their margins are worse.
他们没有英伟达那样的供应链。
They they don't have the supply chain that NVIDIA has.
他们是有供应链的。
They have a supply chain.
他们在企业级芯片方面挺在行的，但跟英伟达比还是差远了，这本身就挺有意思的。
They're pretty good at enterprise chips, but they are still nowhere near as proficient at it as NVIDIA, which is interesting in and of itself.
但我觉得我们会看到陈福阳想跟黄仁勋赛跑，看谁先成为最大的芯片公司，这挺搞笑的，因为他们根本做不到。
But I think we're gonna see Hok Tan try and race Jensen Huang to be the biggest chip company, which is hilarious because they won't do it.
到那时候他们可能已经倒闭了。
They'll be potentially dead by then.
但现在看半导体行业这么内卷，真的挺有意思的。
But it's just interesting watching the semiconductor industry kind of eat itself at this point.
我很好奇最后谁会活下来。
I do wonder who's left standing at the end.
你知道，如果……
You know, if there...
或者说，如果或者当某种崩溃发生的时候，如果我们直接往最坏的情况想，假设某个时刻会发生灾难性的崩溃，可能一个多米诺骨牌倒了，然后你知道，其他一堆也跟着倒。
Or when if or when there's some kind of collapse, if we just kinda go full doomsday and assume it's it's a sort of a catastrophic collapse at some point where maybe one domino falls and then, you know, a bunch of other ones do.
我真的不知道谁最有能力撑到最后。
I I genuinely don't know who is in the strongest position to remain standing.
我觉得英伟达可能是实力最强的之一。
I feel like NVIDIA is probably in one of the stronger positions.
他们会
They'll be
他们会没事的。
they'll be okay.
只是规模会缩小90%。
It would just be 90% smaller.
这也太疯狂了，因为你看他们四五年前的收入，大概就是现在的一个零头。
And that's crazy too because, I mean, if you look at their their revenue just whatever four or five years ago, I guess.
而且大部分还是游戏业务。
It's like a fraction of a fraction of what it is today, and most of it was still gaming.
所以我……
So I...
我不确定。
I'm not sure.
我真的……
I I really...
我不知道。
I don't know.
我真希望我能说，如果这种B2B的东西出现什么波折，我的期望是……
I I wish I could say that my hope would be in the event of some kind of drawback of this b two b stuff.
如果这些公司不得不回头去求消费者，我希望消费者能尽量不买他们的东西，算是表达一种‘你们对我们行业做的这些事，去你的’的态度。
If the companies have to go crawling back to consumers, I would hope that consumers would try to not buy from them as a means of, you know, like, fuck you for what you've done to our industry.
但不幸的是，在GPU领域，你的选择就是NVIDIA、Intel——NVIDIA持有Intel大约4%到5%的股份，而Intel在GPU市场几乎没什么存在感——还有AMD，而AMD自己也没做什么能赢得多少同情的事。
But unfortunately, your options are in the GPU space, NVIDIA, Intel, which NVIDIA owns like four or 5% of, and and and Intel's barely present there, and AMD, which hasn't really done a whole lot to garner much sympathy itself.
所以感觉我们有点像是……
So it it just feels like we're kind of...
比如，你……
Like, what do you...
你把钱给谁呢？
Who do you give your money to?
我想，可能是中国的李斯旺，或者其他人，但真的没什么别的选择……
I guess, Li Swan coming out of China or maybe someone else, but there's not really any...
就是这三家。
It's those three.
你
You
知道吗？
know?
嗯，关于游戏显卡，我一直在想另一件事，我……
Well, the other thing that I've been thinking about with the gaming GPUs, which I...
听起来他们不再……
It sounds like they no longer...
NVIDIA不再在财报中披露了，对吧？
NVIDIA no longer discloses on its earnings, which is?
他们把游戏业务归到边缘计算里了。
They group it in with edge computing.
所以全都混在一起了，真是……
So it's all rolled Fucking...
我的天哪。
Jesus Christ.
而且边缘计算这个类别，如果我没记错的话，根据我们之前的报道，它的收入甚至都不够支付英伟达的税单。
And the edge computing category, if I remember correctly from our, you know, coverage of it, is not even enough revenue to kinda equate the tax bill that NVIDIA has.
这大概就是
That's kinda
现在它有多小。
how small it is now.
而这里面还包括游戏业务。
And that contains gaming.
所以……
So...
而且AMD，他们的游戏业务在最近的一份报告里还是单独列出来的，那个类别下降了大概30%，这也说得通。
And AMD, their gaming was still broken out in one of the previous reports recently, and they had seen something like a 30% decline in that category, which makes sense.
但这里有个我一直在想的问题，就是，好吧，假设AI泡沫破了。
So But here's the thing that I've been really thinking about, which is, okay, let's say AI bubble bursts.
我确定那会发生。
I'm sure that's gonna happen.
过去几年，NVIDIA和AMD其实没怎么在游戏上花心思。
NVIDIA and AMD haven't really been working on gaming very much the last few years.
就像，没人真的……
Like, no one really...
感觉这些公司的全部智慧都集中在造那种能放在仓库里的芯片上，对吧。
It feels like the entire intelligence of these companies has been focused on building chips that can sit in warehouses and Yeah.
能跑满性能，这让我好奇，游戏之后会怎么样？
Can bench max, which makes me wonder, like, what happens to gaming after this?
我觉得好消息是，就玩游戏这件事本身来说，它现在挺好的。
I think the good news is in terms of, like, playing video games as a fun thing to do, it's doing great.
你看看Steam的数据。
You look at Steam's numbers.
Steam是一家私营公司。
Steam's a private company.
对于不了解的人来说，它是一个大型数字游戏购买平台。
They're a big digital platform for people who don't know for games purchasing.
而且根据一些报告，他们的收入比以往任何时候都要好。
And they're they're they're doing more, like, better revenue than ever from some of the reports that have come out.
但我觉得现在很多收入都流向了独立游戏，而不是大型工作室。
But I think a lot of it's going towards indie as an independent games these days as opposed to the big studios.
这通常意味着，虽然不总是这样，但图形保真度或系统要求会降低，因为他们更专注于做出一个好玩、能玩的游戏，而不是那种让显卡烧起来的画面。
And what that tends to mean, although not always, is that things like the graphics fidelity or the demand on the system are lower because they're more focused on just getting a fun game that's playable out, not necessarily these sort of, like, GPU melting graphics.
对显卡公司来说，这就不太有吸引力了，不幸的是。
And for the GPU companies, that's uninteresting, unfortunately.
因为他们没法卖出更多显卡，如果你……
Because they can't sell more GPUs if you...
比如说，你明明可以做一个卖显卡的游戏，为什么要做一个好玩的游戏呢？
If, like, why are you making a game that's fun when you could make a game that sells graphics cards?
我觉得这就是他们的想法。
Is I think their perspective.
我是梅丽莎·杰尔钦，在我的新播客《她怎么了》中，我每周都会为你带来新的故事和对话。
I'm Melissa Jeltsin, and in my new podcast, What Happened to Her, I'm bringing you new stories and conversations every week.
这些故事讲述的是那些死因被草率判定为自杀的女性。
Stories about women whose deaths were too quickly ruled a suicide.
她开始担心起来，也为自己的安全感到害怕。
She was starting to get worried and get scared for her safety.
还有关于幸存的故事。
Stories of survival.
坦白说，我和她唯一的区别就是运气好一点。
The only difference between me and her, frankly, was a little bit of luck.
因为按理说，我早该死了。
Because by all rights, I should be dead.
那些别人都说已经结案的案子。
Cases that everyone else called closed.
他们没法给她定罪，对吧？
They can't convict her, right?
她证据那么多。
Like, she has so much evidence.
这些故事都有一个共同的起点：一个女人，被一个不相信她、不保护她、看不见她的制度辜负了。
These stories all start in the same place, with a woman failed by a system that didn't believe her, that didn't protect her, that didn't see her.
任何孩子都不该经历那种事。
No child should ever experience that.
而那时候我们还只是婴儿。
And we were babies.
她做了那么多勇敢的事，站出来公开讲述，结果他只判了一年。
She did all of these brave things and came out and spoke about it, and he got a year.
你永远不知道那个魔鬼是谁，因为他伪装得很好。
You never know who that devil is because he's wearing a disguise.
有时候，那身制服就是警察的。
Sometimes it's a police uniform.
想听她的故事，可以在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts，或者任何你收听播客的地方找到。
Listen to what happened to her on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
丽莎，我们该告诉他们我们的新节目了。
Lisa, we should tell them about our new show.
天哪，莱克西。
Oh my god, Lexi.
我们有个新播客。
We have a new podcast.
名字叫《别骗我》。
It's called Don't Lie To Me.
我是莱克西·伊瓦努。
I'm Lexi Iwanu.
我们是两个最好的
We're two best
我们是好朋友，虽然相差二十二岁，但心贴得很近。
friends, twenty two years apart, but so close at heart.
我是丽莎·迪朱利奥，年纪大的那个，这意味着我们的喜好很不一样，偶尔看法也不同。
And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
到了我这个五十多岁的年纪，什么都经历过了。
And at this point in my fifties, I've lived it all.
吵架解决不了任何问题。
I'm not gonna get anywhere fighting.
那真是太不可思议了。
That is wild.
我今天才
I learned
了解到你这一点。
that about you today.
我现在三十多岁，作为新鞋品牌的创始人，好品味就是我的事业，而且我总有话要说。
Now in my thirties, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business, and I've always got something to say.
如果男人能在这件事上坦诚一点，那世界上就会
If men were just honest about this, there would be so
和平很多。
much more peace in the world.
我们会聊约会、感情、美容、变老，还有变得更聪明一点。
We're gonna talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser.
我们是最好的朋友，但我们的意见并不总是一致。
We're best friends, but we don't always agree.
因为你告诉我们你有多随和
Because you told us how accommodating
你有多好说话。
you are.
显然，我会尽力去抗争，但我的抗争能力是有限的。
Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight.
别骗我。
Don't lie to me.
别骗我。
Don't lie to me.
别骗我，别骗我。
Don't lie to Don't lie to me.
别对我这样。
Don't to me.
骗子。
Liar.
请在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple Podcasts 或任何你收听播客的地方收听。
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
我真的不在乎。
I don't really care.
嗨。
Hi.
我是凯莉·布雷克曼。
This is Kylie Brakeman.
安吉拉·杰里托娜。
Angela Gerritonna.
杰里米·科尔汉。
Jeremy Colhane.
帕特里克·麦克唐纳。
Patrick McDonald.
我们是“艺术家对艺术家对艺术家对艺术家”播客的主持人。
And we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artist podcast.
这是一档即兴角色喜剧播客，每周都有新的艺术家小组来讨论他们的创作技艺。
The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft.
加入我们，一起听听健康领域网红们的讨论吧。
Join us for a panel of wellness influencers.
我试着做的是假装写日记。
What I try to do is faux journal.
我也不知道。
I don't know.
你们听说过假装写日记吗？
Have you guys heard of faux journaling?
那就是读书。
It's reading.
那叫读书。
It's called reading.
所以你是……
So you're...
所以我们不再用那个词了。
So we don't like to use that word anymore.
好的。
Okay.
一群《纽约客》漫画家。
A panel of New Yorker cartoonists.
你们上过特里·格罗斯的Peloton课程吗？
Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class?
没有。
No.
我也快不行了。
I've been dying too.
真的很抱歉。
I'm so sorry.
我，我，我……
I'm I'm I'm
正在看《千纸鹤》的朗读会，
seeing a reading of Sadako and the
奥德拉·麦克唐纳在第十四街的仙境书店朗读《千纸鹤》。
thousand thousand paper cranes by Audra McDonald at the Wonderland bookstore on 14th.
太疯狂了。
That's crazy.
我昨天去了仙境书店，
I went to the Wonderland bookstore yesterday,
我还听到诺拉·琼斯朗读了《猎杀本·拉登》的片段。
and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of zero dark 30.
不会吧。
No way.
我们得去
We'll have to come to
最后一家书店看看。
the last bookstore, though.
金·凯特罗尔在朗读《昨日》的吉他谱。
Kim Cattrall is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday.
还有欧洲歌唱大赛参赛者的座谈会。
A panel of Eurovision participants.
我们有时也会搞点万圣节活动。
And we do a little Halloween sometimes.
教皇会打扮吗？
Does the pope dress up?
他在万圣节那天会眨眼睛。
He he winks on Halloween.
他会凑到麦克风跟前。
He gets right up next to the microphone.
你可以……
You can...
我听说你几乎能听到睫毛碰在一起的声音。
I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other.
你从没见过意大利这么安静，就像教皇在万圣节站起来眨眼的时候那样。
You never seen Italy so quiet as when the pope gets up to wink on Halloween.
请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你收听播客的平台收听艺术家们的节目。
Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
我是莱西·莫斯利，作家、演员、单口喜剧演员、创作者，也是《骗子女神》播客的主持人。
I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand up comedian, creator, and host of scam goddess podcast.
这是一档真实犯罪喜剧播客，内容全是关于抢劫、诈骗以及那些干这些事的人。
The true crime comedy podcast all about robbery, fraud, those who practice it.
每周我都会请来一些超棒的嘉宾，比如柯南·奥布莱恩、爱荷华·黛布拉、拉莫恩·莫里斯和妮可·拜尔。
Each week, I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debra, Lamorne Morris, and Nicole Byer.
哦，我骗了他们。
Oh, I scammed them.
什么？
What?
我能跟你聊上一个小时。
I could talk to you for an hour.
你跟我一样，是个天生的话痨。
You're a generational yapper like me.
这就是为什么我
That's why I
不得不把聊天当成工作。
had to make yapping a job.
而且骗局五花八门，什么都有。
And the scams run the gamut.
我讲的是从十九世纪一直到今天的各种骗局。
I'm talking about scams from the eighteen hundreds all the way up to today.
我还会提醒你，保护你免受骗子的侵害。
I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers.
给爷爷奶奶打个电话吧。
Call your grandparents.
告诉爸妈别再乱点链接了，拜托了。
Tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please.
现在你可以在YouTube上看我节目的完整版了。
And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube.
只要有骗局，我就在这里保护你，也在这里陪你一起笑。
If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you, and I'm also here to laugh with you.
所以，如果你喜欢有趣的内容，喜欢喜剧，也喜欢学习并保护自己免受罪犯侵害，那就从iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客，或者任何你收听播客的地方，开始收听《Scam Goddess》吧。
So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.
《骗子女神》。
Scam goddess.
错过了最新的Roland Martin Unfiltered播客吗？
Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast?
这是你错过的内容。
Here's what you missed.
争论的焦点是，你想赢吗？
And the argument is, do you want to win?
如果你不赢，你就没有权力。
If you don't win, you have no power.
这是真的。
It's real.
那些人正是我常说的，投票违背自己经济利益的人，他们还在抱怨自己正在得到的东西。
Those are the very people who I always say vote against their own economic interests, and they complain about the very thing they're receiving.
这很真实。
It's raw.
我知道跨性别运动员的问题在很多黑人男性中并不受欢迎。
I knew that the issue of transgender gender athletes was not going well with a lot of black men.
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