管理局势

这是iHeart播客。

This is an iHeart podcast.

保证真人。

Guaranteed human.

大学橄榄球会霸占你的周末，毁掉你的睡眠，伤透你的心。

College football will hijack your weekend, ruin your sleep, and break your heart.

这就是我们做这档扎实的大学橄榄球脱口秀的原因。

And that's why we make the solid verbal college football show.

我是泰·希尔登布兰德。

I'm Ty Hildenbrand.

他是丹·鲁宾斯坦。

He's Dan Rubenstein.

每周，我们都会预览重要的比赛和那些会点燃你聊天群的话题。

Every week, we preview the games that matter and the storylines that are gonna ignite your group chat.

赛后你也可以加入我们，一起聊聊发生了什么，为什么重要，以及这项运动如何再次彻底疯狂。

And you can join us in the aftermath as we react to what happened, why it matters, and how the sport went completely bonkers yet again.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts上收听Solid Verbal大学橄榄球节目，

Listen to the solid verbal college football show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

或者在你获取播客的任何地方。

or wherever you get your podcasts.

错过了最新的Roland Martin Unfiltered播客？

Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast?

这是你错过的内容。

Here's what you missed.

任何执法机构都应该配备随身摄像头。

There should not be a single law enforcement agency that does not have body cameras.

这是真的。

It's real.

黑人农民一直受到攻击。

Black farmers have been under attack.

这只是他们随便给任何东西贴上DEI标签的最新例子。

This is just the latest example of them just slapping DEI on anything.

这很真实。

It's raw.

我坐在这儿想，他们就是在把你们当傻子耍。

And I'm sitting here going, they are playing y'all for fools.

在黑人信息网络上收听罗兰·马丁的每日评论。

Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network.

并在iHeartRadio应用或Apple Podcasts上下载Roland Martin Unfiltered。

And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts

或者在你收听播客的任何地方。

Or wherever you get your podcasts.

新的NFL赛季已经到来，随着我们迈向第六十一届超级碗，你应该收听NFL Daily。

The new NFL season is here, and you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl sixty one.

名字就叫NFL Daily。

It is in the name NFL Daily.

整个赛季，每天都会有新鲜内容出现在你的订阅里。

You'll have fresh content in your feed every day, all season long.

那个制胜的进攻，可能是赫伯特，可能是吉诺，也可能是马霍姆斯。

That game winning drive, maybe it's Herbert, maybe it's Gino, maybe it's Mahomes.

我们会带来精彩集锦。

We'll have the highlights.

如果费尔南多·门多萨或者任何新秀表现出色，我们会分析比赛录像。

If Fernando Mendoza or any of the rookies are balling out, we'll break down the tape.

加入我和格雷格·罗森塔尔，以及一群明星联合主持人，一起预览和回顾每场比赛。

Join me, Greg Rosenthal, and an all star cast of cohosts as we preview and recap every game.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或你收听播客的任何地方收听NFL每日播客。

Listen to NFL daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

无论你是资深NFL球迷还是新手，

Whether you're a seasoned NFL fan or new to the

有一个地方可以了解所有动态。

game, there's one place to keep up with all of it.

联盟最新的播客，NFL报道，由我安德鲁·西西利亚诺主持。

The league's newest podcast, the NFL report hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano.

这里是您获取所有橄榄球资讯的家。

It is your home for everything football.

突发新闻、专家分析、比赛预测，还有您最喜爱的球员的声音。

Breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and hear from your favorite players too.

加入我和一群专家，了解联盟内所有您需要知道的信息。

Join me and an all star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the league.

整个赛季，每周一到周五，NFL报告都会更新新节目。

Get new episodes of the NFL report Monday through Friday all season long.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcast或任何您收听播客的平台收听NFL报告播客。

Listen to the NFL report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Call Zone Media。

Call Zone Media.

大家好，欢迎收听Better Offline。

Hello, and welcome to Better Offline.

我是主持人Zitron。

I'm your host at Zitron.

Better Offline。

Better Offline.

这周是独白周，意思就是我的嘉宾临时取消了，所以你只能听我在这儿聊。

This week is monologue week by which I mean I had a guest pull out last minute, and so you have to hear me talk about stuff.

和往常一样，记得订阅付费通讯。

As ever, subscribe to the premium newsletter.

节目说明里有折扣链接。

There's a discount link in the notes.

这对我来说意义重大。

It means a lot to me.

这是我主要的收入来源，和播客一样。如果你在YouTube上，记得点赞订阅；如果你在Sloob上，也给我点个赞吧。

It's my main source of income along with the podcast, and like and subscribe if you're on YouTube or toss me a glirt on Sloob if you're on Sloob.

我也在……总之，今天我要聊一个几乎全世界都存在的问题。

I'm also on and Anyway, today I'm gonna talk about a problem in basically every part of the world.

管理局面与真正应对世界本身的复杂性。

Managing situations versus actually dealing with the complexities of the world itself.

几周前，我写了一篇文章叫《超大规模正常化》，你可能猜到了，灵感来自亚当·柯蒂斯的纪录片《超正常化》。他在片中描述并引用说，过去四十年里，政客、金融家和科技乌托邦主义者，没有面对世界的真实复杂性，而是退缩了，构建了他所说的一个更简单的世界版本，以维持权力，而世界也接受了，因为简单让人安心。

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a piece called Hyperscale Normalization inspired as you may have guessed by the Adam Curtis documentary Hypernormalization where he describes and I quote, a world where over the past forty years politicians, financiers, and technological utopians, rather than face up to the real complexities of the world, retreated, constructing what he calls a simpler version of the world in order to hang on to power, with the world going along with it because the simplicity was reassuring.

这部纪录片长达两个半小时，但核心观点很简单：我们作为社会，是在管理问题，而不是处理我们周围世界中混乱复杂的元素。

It's a two and a half hour long documentary, but it comes down to a simple point that we as a society manage problems rather than dealing with the messy and complex elements of the world around us.

一次又一次地推迟问题，并假设如果我们推迟得足够多次，它们就会消失。

Putting off problems again and again and under the assumption that they'll disappear if we do so enough times.

我们用系统来管理这些问题，而不是真正根除它们或处理根本条件。

We use the system to manage these problems rather than actually eradicating them or dealing with the conditions.

当然，它们永远不会真正消失。

And of course, they never actually disappear.

问题实际上会累积。

The problems actually compound.

以次贷危机为例。

Let's take the subprime mortgage crisis for example.

虽然2008年后的金融监管，比如《多德-弗兰克法案》和现在被削弱的《沃尔克规则》，理论上帮助遏制了导致大金融危机的一些过度行为，但大多数相关人士仍然富有且在职。

While post 2008 financial regulations, Dodd Frank and the now weakened Volcker Rule theoretically helped curb some of the excesses that led to the great financial crisis, most of the people involved remained both wealthy and employed.

在金融界或媒体界，他们依然逍遥自在，没有被拉黑。

Blissfully unblackballed from the world of finance or indeed by the media.

事实上，我找不到当时媒体中有谁因为搞砸了而被赶下台，甚至被真正批评过。

In fact, I can find nobody of that time in the media who was ousted or even really critiqued for how badly they fucked up.

虽然金融机构和公司获得了超过14万亿美元的救助，但只有460亿美元（约占TARP计划的10%）用于试图拯救房主免于止赎，最终，引用2009年国会小组的话说，没有证据表明财政部使用TARP资金通过避免可预防的止赎来支持住房市场。

While financial institutions and companies saw over $14,000,000,000,000 in bailouts, only $46,000,000,000 (about 10% of the TARP plan) focused on trying to save homeowners from foreclosure, and in the end, to quote a congressional panel from 2009, there was no evidence that the Treasury has used TARP funds to support the housing market by avoiding preventable foreclosures.

政府资金被用来管理系统性危机，确保系统存活，而不是建设更好的社会或修复系统，或者真正做更多的事情，而不仅仅是像多德-弗兰克和沃尔克那样，只是稍微啃了啃问题，而不是彻底解决它们。

Government funds were used to manage a systemic crisis by making sure the system survived rather than building a better society or fixing the system or really doing anything more than the Dodd Frank and Volker style stuff that really only slightly gnawed on the problems rather than chewing them up and eating them.

因为这样做——给系统喂钱，清理它的烂摊子，为它的成功辩解——比拥有任何愿景或理想去追求要容易得多。

Because doing so, feeding the system money, cleaning up its messes, explaining away its successes, is easier than having any kind of vision or ideal to aspire to.

这样做，引用柯蒂斯的话，通过创造一个更简单的世界，剥离了现实世界中棘手的复杂性。

Doing so strips out, to quote Curtis, the intractable complexities of the real world by creating a simpler one.

在那个世界里，系统运转良好，进步总是沿着历史（常常被遗忘）的轨迹流动，并支持系统当时吹嘘的任何东西。

One where the system works, that progress always flows through following the course of, often poorly remembered, history and backing whatever the system trumpets that moment.

一切最终都会回到一个点，有人会说系统已经运转了这么久，事情最终总会解决的。

Everything ultimately returns to a point where someone will say the system has worked this long and things always work out in the end.

即使他们实际上并没有做到。

Even if they really haven't done so.

因为即使你看到一个个证据表明系统运转不正常，危机不断发生，但由于当权者的教条和自信如此突出，几乎不可能想到替代方案。

Because thinking of an alternative, even as you see proof point after proof point that the system is not functioning right and keeps having crises created, is near impossible due to the prominence of the dogma and confidence from those in power.

大金融危机是通过将利率降至零、救助银行和汽车制造商以及基本上所有对美国或各个社会构成风险的系统性公司来管理的，而不是救助社会中的人民。

The great financial crisis was managed by dropping interest rates to zero and bailing out banks and auto makers and basically any systemic companies that would pose a risk to America or various societies rather than the people in the societies.

新冠疫情是通过尽可能宽松的封锁措施来管理的，通过薪资保护计划给企业数千亿美元，而且需要明确的是，只给有薪员工而不是承包商，通过与大金融危机中使用的相同系统给银行和金融机构数万亿美元，基本上没有采取任何措施来解决新冠疫情暴露出的实际问题。

COVID was managed by the loosest lockdown protocols possible, giving businesses hundreds of billions of dollars via the Paycheck Protection Program And just to be clear, only for salaried salaried employees rather than contractors, giving banks and financial institutions trillions of dollars via the very same systems that were used in the great financial crisis, and basically doing absolutely nothing to fix the actual problems that COVID kind of exposed.

财富不平等、种族不公、歧视。

The wealth inequality, racial injustice, discrimination.

这些事情大多只是被搁置一旁。

These things mostly were just kind of pushed off to the side.

公司采纳DEI，只要有必要，以安抚那些相信有实际社会变革的市场，而没有真正将其内化。

Companies picked up DEI as long as necessary to appease markets that believed there was actual social change without actually ingesting it.

系统本身从未被显著改变，比如建立全民医疗保险或社会安全网，或使哄抬价格非法，这意味着问题并没有真正消失，而只是被管理了。

At no point was the system itself significantly altered, such as creating Medicare for all or a social safety net or making price gouging illegal, which meant that the problems didn't really go away so much as they were managed.

结果就是，2021年金融系统被宽松货币淹没了。

The net result was that in 2021 the financial system got saturated with easy money.

数万亿美元的资本让富人更富，穷人更穷。

Trillions of dollars of capital that made the rich richer and the poor poorer.

与此同时，企业一直利用供应链危机和通胀的阴影全面提价，尽管很明显真正的原因是肆无忌惮的贪婪，公司创纪录的利润，从兴奋地回到现实世界的狂热社会中吸走现金。

Meanwhile, corporations have been using supply chain crises in the spectre of inflation to raise prices across the board, though it became obvious that the real reason was sheer unabated greed, with companies posting record profits to soak up the cash from a frothy society excited to be back in the real world.

一个自疫情开始以来已经发生实质性变化的世界，但没人真正愿意承认这一点。

A real world that had materially changed since the beginning of COVID, but no one really wanted to acknowledge that.

到2022年底，美联储大幅加息4.25%，仅科技行业就有数万人失业。

By the end of twenty twenty two, the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by a dramatic 4.25%, leading to tens of thousands of people losing their jobs in the tech sector alone.

而且情况从未真正恢复。

And things have never really recovered.

普通人数年来一直看着商品价格因通胀而上涨，即使在那几次加息之后，尽管价格上涨主要是由企业提价推动的，你听好了，是企业提价。

Regular people have spent years watching the price of goods increase due to inflation, even after those interest rate bumps, despite the fact that the increase in pricing was mostly driven by, get this, corporations raising prices.

然而，一些传统媒体花了大量时间责备读者，说他们不这么想。

Yet some parts of the legacy media spent an alarming amount of time chiding their readers for thinking otherwise.

甚至不惜违背自己的报道，以提供所谓的平衡报道。

Even going against their own reporting as a means of providing balanced coverage.

一再坚称经济很好，扭曲事实来证明物价并没有真的上涨，即便像百事这样的公司都在吹嘘自己确实提价了。

Insisting again and again that the economy is good, contorting to prove that prices aren't actually higher even as companies like Pepsi boasted about literally raising their prices.

事实上，媒体花了数年时间争论是否存在价格欺诈，尽管多年来的证据表明它一直存在，并且至今仍在继续。

In fact, the media spent years debating with itself whether price gouging was happening despite years of proof that it was and continues to this day.

这个体系，我指的是媒体、市场和美国政府联合起来的力量，专注于强行把一切推回原来的样子，或者至少让它看起来像那样。

The system, by which I mean the conjoined forces of the media, the markets, and the American government, focused on aggressively forcing everything back to where it used to be or at least making it look that way.

当情况艰难时，它向系统注入资金。

When things were rough, it pumped money into the system.

当情况看起来过于泡沫化时，它又让资金变得难以获得，这最终在很大程度上惩罚了普通人。

When things seemed too frothy, it made that money harder to come by, which ended up punishing regular people for the largest part.

总的来说，普通人大多因为体系自身的过度行为而受到惩罚。

For the most part, regular people in general were punished for the excesses of the system itself.

当他们利用远程工作、工作灵活性和购买力时，却被说成懒惰、错误、这一切都是暂时的，甚至说他们对慷慨给予的东西太过贪婪，对社会期望过高。

When they took advantage of remote work, job flexibility, and purchasing power, they were told they were lazy, that they were wrong, that this was temporary, and that in fact they were too greedy with what they were generously given, and indeed expected too much from society.

系统永远正确的这种持续观念，最终让媒体几乎完全脱离了现实。

The continued perpetuation of the system is always right ultimately led to the media near completely detaching from reality.

一个普通人，自己的生活水平在急剧恶化，打开新闻却只会被嘲笑说感觉不好，被讥讽质疑那些数字，被告知要坐下闭嘴，因为媒体和那些给他们提供信息的人更懂。

A regular person experiencing aggressively worsening standards in their own lives would open the news only to be sneered at for feeling bad, mocked for questioning the numbers, told to sit down and shut up because the media and those that informed them knew better.

在经历了两年希望和富足之后，世界和系统本身试图让所有人回到从前，却没有了繁荣或进步的外衣，甚至根本没有打算回去。

After two years of hope and abundance, the world and the system itself attempted to revert everyone back to the before times, all without the veneer of prosperity or progress or indeed never going back.

换句话说，普通人的现实是一团混乱的社交媒体、另类媒体、主流媒体和政府，它们似乎都坚持说要么一切正常，要么有某个具体的东西可以怪罪，通常是外国人，或者是某种听众或读者自己，或者真的就是那些期望太高的人。

In other words, a regular person's form of reality was a confusing mess of social media, alternative media, mainstream media, and governments that seemed intent on saying that either everything was fine or that there was a specific thing to blame, usually a foreigner or some sort of listener or reader themselves or really just people expecting too much.

没有人对系统本身、系统所做的选择，或者媒体选择如何报道系统性运动提出批评，因为这样做要么被认为是愚蠢的，因为系统总是有效的。

No critiques are levied at the system itself or the choices made by it or the way in which the media chooses to cover systemic movements because to do so is considered either stupid because the system always works.

对吧？

Right?

要么被认为是无望的，因为系统太强大了。

Or hopeless because the system is just so powerful.

我是布雷特·科尔曼。

I'm Brett Coleman.

我是特雷弗·西克马。

And I'm Trevor Sickema.

你有没有在看比赛时想过，除了最终比分，到底是什么决定了胜负？

Have you ever watched a game and wondered what really made the difference beyond the final score?

这正是我们创建NFL Pro的原因。

That's exactly why we created NFL Pro.

喉咙。

Throat.

有个球员完全空位了。

Got a man wide open.

触地得分，海鹰队。

Touchdown, Seahawks.

每周，我们都会利用独家下一代数据洞察和NFL内容，深入分析联盟中最大的故事、对决和时刻。

Every week, we use exclusive next gen stats insights and NFL content to break down the biggest stories, matchups, and moments from around the league.

我们超越比分板，揭示那些能解释场上真实情况的数字、趋势和细节。

We go beyond the box score to uncover the numbers, the tendencies, and details that help explain what actually happened on the field.

他把球快速传到边路给巴克利，巴克利过掉一个人，又转身躲过另一个，最后跳起来越过第三个人。

Fires it out in the flat to Barkley who beats one man, spins past another, leaps over a third.

别担心。

And don't worry.

这不仅仅是一个给数据专家的节目。

This isn't just a show for stats experts.

我们用高级分析来讲述比赛背后的故事，把数字变成每个球迷都能理解和享受的见解。

We use advanced analytics to help tell the story behind the game, turning the numbers into insights that every fan can understand and enjoy.

所以无论你是想更了解橄榄球的普通球迷，还是对分析欲罢不能的球迷，我们的目标都是帮助你以全新的方式看待比赛。

So whether you're a casual fan learning more about football or a fan who can't get enough analysis, our goal is to help you see the game in a whole new way.

如果你曾经想知道为什么一个战术能成功，一场对决是怎么赢的，或者大多数球迷在周日错过了什么，NFL Pro 提供你在其他地方得不到的见解。

If you've ever wanted to know why a play worked, how a matchup was won, or what most fans missed on Sunday, NFL pro delivers insights you simply can't get anywhere else.

在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple Podcast 或任何你收听播客的地方收听 NFL Pro。

Listen to NFL pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

大学橄榄球会霸占你的周末，毁掉你的睡眠，还会让你心碎。

College football will hijack your weekend, ruin your sleep, and break your heart.

所以这就是我们做这档扎实的大学橄榄球脱口秀的原因。

And that's why we make the solid verbal college football show.

我是泰·希尔登布兰德。

I'm Ty Hildenbrand.

他是丹·鲁宾斯坦。

He's Dan Rubenstein.

最近怎么样？

How's it going?

每周我们都会预览重要比赛，梳理最大的热点话题，告诉你开球前该关注什么。

Every week, we preview the games that matter, sort through the biggest storylines, and tell you what to watch before kickoff.

要关注的事情太多了。

There's a lot to keep track of.

谁是真的强？

Who's for real?

哪个冷门其实就摆在眼前？

Which upset is hiding in plain sight?

还有哪个故事线即将占据你的群聊。

And which storyline is about to take over your group chat.

比赛结束后，也欢迎加入我们的赛后讨论。

And when the games are over, join us in the aftermath too.

我们会实时反应比赛情况，聊聊最大的赛果。

We're gonna react to what happened, talk about the biggest results.

当然，我们还会覆盖季后赛形势，以及你在同时切换看12场比赛时可能错过的小细节。

Of course, we'll cover the playoff picture and all the little details you might have missed while flipping between, like, 12 games at once.

无论你是熟悉每位教练和协调员，还是只想弄明白为什么大家都在大喊大叫，我们都在这里帮你理清这疯狂的局面。

Whether you know every coach and coordinator or just wanna understand why everybody is yelling, we're here to help make sense of the madness.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客上收听Solid Verbal大学橄榄球节目，

Listen to the solid verbal college football show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts,

或者在你收听播客的任何地方。

or wherever you get your podcasts.

NFL永不停歇，它的最新播客也是如此。

The NFL never stops and neither does its newest podcast.

NFL报道，由我安德鲁·塞西利亚诺主持。

The NFL report hosted by me, Andrew Ceciliano.

这里是你了解所有橄榄球资讯的家。

It is your home for everything football.

威廉姆斯在移动，冲刺寻找空间，陷入了各种麻烦，为了……

Williams drifting, sprinting for space in all kinds of trouble for the for the.

他们拿到了，达阵了。

They got it for the touchdown.

他们又做到了。

They've done it again.

我们挖掘最大的新闻故事，为你提供专家分析、梦幻选秀预览、比赛预测等等。

We're tapping the biggest news stories, giving you expert analysis, fantasy previews, game picks, and more.

我们每一场比赛都全力以赴。

We fly around every single play.

我们每一场比赛都占据优势。

We dominate every single play.

想听听联盟顶级球星在重大比赛前的看法吗？

Wanna hear from the league's top stars ahead of the biggest matchups?

我们都为你准备好了。

We've got you covered.

他们是一支非常优秀的橄榄球队。

They're a really good football team.

我们必须全员出动。

We gotta have all hands on deck.

加入我和一群明星分析师，了解联盟内你需要知道的一切。

Join me and an all star cast of analysts for everything you need to know from around the league.

整个赛季，每周一到周五，都有NFL报告的新集数。

Get new episodes of the NFL report Monday through Friday all season long.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你收听播客的地方，收听NFL报告播客。

Listen to the NFL report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

新的NFL赛季已经到来，在我们迈向第六十一届超级碗的过程中，你应该收听NFL每日节目。

The new NFL season is here, and you should be listening to NFL daily as we march along to Super Bowl sixty one.

去年，我们赛后在场边采访了迈克·麦克唐纳和萨姆·达诺德，但那都是去年的事了。

Last year, we had Mike McDonald, Sam Darnold on the field after the game, but that was last year.

如果你像我一样是个足球狂热分子，那《NFL每日》就是为你量身定做的节目。

If you're a football sicko like me, NFL Daily is your kind of show.

名字就说明了一切。

It is in the name.

《NFL每日》。

NFL Daily.

整个赛季，每天都有新鲜内容更新到你的订阅里。

Fresh content in your feed every day, all season long.

马修·斯塔福德刚刚结束了一个MVP级别的赛季。

Matthew Stafford coming off as MVP season.

马修·斯塔福德那记精准的传球。

On a dazzling darts from Matthew Stafford.

那些震撼整个NFL的大交易。

Big time trades that shake up the NFL.

AJ·布朗状态正佳。

AJ Brown is loose.

当然，还有海鹰队，他们想再赢一次隆巴迪奖杯。

And, of course, those seahawks trying to run it back and win another Lombardi trophy.

海鹰队赢得了第六十届超级碗。

The seahawks win Super Bowl sixty.

他们把隆巴迪奖杯带回了西北地区。

They are bringing the Lombardi back to the Northwest.

只要是在橄榄球场上发生的事，NFL每日都会报道。

If it's happening on a football field, NFL daily will cover it.

你可以在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你收听播客的地方收听NFL每日。

Listen to NFL daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

那么，这到底和AI有什么关系呢？

So what does this have to do with AI exactly?

好的。

Okay.

所以我想让你花一秒钟想想人们是怎么为AI行业辩护的。

So I want you to think about how people defend the AI industry for a second.

当你这么做的时候，一切都会开始变得合理。

And when you do that, it's all gonna begin to make sense.

如果你说OpenAI和Anthropic每年亏损数百亿美元，你会被告知Uber和亚马逊网络服务也亏了很多钱。

If you talk about how OpenAI and Anthropic are losing tens of billions of dollars a year, you'll get told that Uber and Amazon Web Services lost a lot of money.

尽管这两项服务各自烧掉了300亿美元，而亚马逊网络服务从2003年开始到2015年盈利，总资本支出是297亿美元。

Even though both of those services burned what $30,000,000,000 each and in Amazon Web Services case it was $29,700,000,000 of total capex between the year it started in 2003 and the year it became profitable in 2015.

但这不重要。

Doesn't matter though.

不重要。

Doesn't matter.

系统总是对的。

The system's always right.

如果你说生成式AI的幻觉会导致重大错误，使LLM本质上不可信，每个人都会告诉你现在还为时过早。

If you say that generative AI's hallucinations make massive mistakes that make LLMs inherently untrustworthy, everyone will tell you it's the early days.

如果你说找不到用例，你就会批评它。

If you say you're not finding use cases, you'll castigate it.

有人告诉你，其实你需要多用它，才能发现它的用处。

You're told actually you need to use it more so that you can find it useful.

这个人工智能其实有点笨，但同时又超级聪明。

This artificial intelligence is actually kind of stupid, but it's also super smart.

你看，它够聪明，能帮你做事，只要你让它做，但还不够聪明，不能像我们通常认为的软件或人工智能那样真正帮到你。

You see it's smart enough to do stuff if you make it do it, but not smart enough to actually help you in the way that we associate with software or indeed the memetic form of artificial intelligence.

如果你对生成式AI的任何方面提出批评，你就会被灌输一套系统性的辩护。

If you critique basically anything about generative AI, you're given a shot of systemic apologia.

现在还为时过早。

It's early.

这就像互联网的早期阶段。

It's just like the early days of the Internet.

这些人都是世界上最聪明的人。

These are the smartest people in the world.

这些是世界上最富有、规模最大的公司。

These are the richest and largest companies in the world.

否则，你就得闭嘴，相信这个过程，因为一直以来都是这样运作的。

And otherwise, you need to shut the fuck up and trust the process because that's what's always worked.

即使是那些反对人工智能的人，也落入了同样的系统性陷阱。

Even those who are anti AI fall into the same systemic traps.

我经常听到有人说，这是一个耗资数万亿美元的数据中心建设，实际上是一个大型的秘密政府监控项目。

The amount of times I hear from people suggesting that this is a massive multi trillion dollar data center build out that's actually a big secret government surveillance program.

这些人其实也陷入了同样的系统性思维，他们相信，因为大量资金被花在虚幻的需求和循环融资上，所以系统并不愚蠢。

Well, those people are falling into the very same systemic thinking, believing that because a bunch of money is being spent on illusory demand and circular financing that in fact the system isn't stupid.

这些公司并不笨。

That these companies aren't dumb.

实际上有一个大计划。

That actually there's a big plan.

管理系统的聪明人有一个大秘密计划。

The smart people running the system have a big secret plan.

他们没有。

They don't.

我想说清楚，他们没有。

Just wanna be clear that they don't.

但这又是那种方便的系统性思维，因为如果你不这么想，现实世界看起来就有点疯狂。

But this is again convenient systemic thinking because when you don't think in this way, well, the real world seems kind of insane.

然而，每一次系统性失败都源于缺乏真正的计划、策略或远见。

Yet every systemic failure has come from a lack of any real plan, strategy or forethought.

金融危机之所以发生，是因为每个人都以为系统已经万无一失，金融机构正确地对冲了风险，每个人都确保这些是高质量的投资。

The great financial crisis happened because everybody assumed that the system had everything covered, that the financial institutions had hedged their bets correctly, That everybody made sure that these were high quality investments.

任何持有可调利率抵押贷款的人都能再融资，或者卖掉他们不断升值的房子。

That anyone with an adjustable rate mortgage would be able to refinance it or sell their ever appreciating house.

一个接一个的咒语，源于缺乏好奇心，以及对各种系统的完全信任，而这些系统最终会让他们失望，就像它们以前失败过一样。

Mantra after mantra based on a lack of curiosity and complete faith in the various systems that would eventually fail them as they had failed before.

我们现在正看着同样的事情在AI上重演。

We are watching the very same thing happen again with AI.

昨天，金融时报报道说，OpenAI和Anthropic的IPO银行家们正在为这两家公司争取投资级评级，推动评级机构把这两家不盈利、不可持续的公司当作真正的公司来评级。

Yesterday, the Financial Times reported that bankers for OpenAI and Anthropix IPOs were seeking investment grade ratings for both companies, pushing agencies to rate two unprofitable, unsustainable companies as if they were, well, real companies.

据金融时报报道，他们的理由是，这两家公司的公开上市将释放大量流动性，并改善它们的资产负债表健康状况。

Per the Feet, the argument is that the two companies' public listings would unlock vast amounts of liquidity and improve the health of their balance sheets.

也就是说，通过让它们获得大量债务，OpenAI和Anthropic都能背上大量债务。

By which they mean by giving them access to lots of debt both OpenAI and Anthropic would be able to take on lots of debt.

就这么简单。

That's really it.

这是一种极其危险的管理方式，管理着两家最终会耗尽资金的公司。

This is a deeply dangerous way of managing two companies that will eventually run out of money.

Anthropic和OpenAI每年需要数千亿美元来满足它们1.3万亿美元的计算承诺。

Anthropic and OpenAI will need hundreds of billions of dollars a year to meet their 1,300,000,000,000 of compute commitments.

即使它们奇迹般地获得了投资级评级，顺便说一句，标普、穆迪，如果你们在听，如果你们真这么干了，你们就该遭受苦难。

And even if they're somehow rated investment grade, and by the way, S and P, Moody's, if you're listening, if you fucking do this, you deserve nothing but suffering.

如果你们有机会听到这个，去你们的。

If any of you have any any chance you hear this, fuck you guys.

你们又要这么干，对吧？

You're gonna do it again, aren't you?

但就算他们真的拿到投资级评级。

But let's say they become investment grade.

他们需要的债务也太多了。

They're gonna need so much debt.

那么多债务，利息高得吓人，因为他们只比垃圾级高一级。

So much debt with onerously high interest because they'll be one rung above junk.

这意味着，除非他们能神奇地找到盈利的办法，产生大量现金流，否则我看不出他们怎么还得起这些债务。

Which means that unless they magically find ways to become profitable and generate massive amounts of cash, I don't see how they service the debt they're gonna need.

我得说清楚，他们的算力承诺，OpenAI预计到2030年要花7500亿美元。

And I must be clear, their compute commitments, OpenAI is expected to spend $750,000,000,000 through 2030.

他们怎么付得起？

How do they afford that?

他们每年亏损几百亿美元。

They lose tens of billions of dollars a year.

我问这些问题，别人都觉得我是个刺头。

I'm considered a firebrand for asking these questions.

而且这些公司，就像我说的，有超过1.3万亿美元的算力承诺。

And these companies like I said, have over $1,300,000,000,000 in compute commitments.

这意味着，到2030年，他们要支付数千亿美元的算力费用。

Which means, like I said, they're gonna own hundreds of billions of dollars of compute payments by 2030.

这个数字大得惊人，比Meta每年约1410亿美元的运营支出和微软每年约1750亿美元的运营支出加起来还要多。

An unbelievable sum that dwarfs the operating expenses of Meta at around $141,000,000,000 a year, and Microsoft at about a $175,000,000,000 a year.

事实上，根据预测，我敢肯定Anthropic或OpenAI在某个时候的支出会超过这两家公司的总和。

In fact, based on the projections, I'm pretty sure Anthropic or OpenAI is gonna spend more than those two numbers combined at some point.

我说的支出，是指他们打算花的钱。

And when I say spend, intend to spend.

他们需要这笔钱，但他们没有。

They're going to need the money, which they don't have.

这两家公司的增长都在放缓，而且正如我上周所说，他们80%的企业收入来自前1%的客户，这些客户主要是亏损的AI初创公司，他们在补贴用户的AI代币消费。

Both companies are seeing growth decelerate and 80% of their enterprise revenues per ramp as I discussed last week come from the top 1% of their customers who are predominantly unprofitable AI startups that are subsidizing their users AI token spend.

也就是说，用户在这些服务上每花一美元订阅费，他们就能烧掉好几美元的AI代币。

Meaning that for every dollar a user spends in subscriptions on these services, they're able to burn several dollars in AI tokens.

所有这些钱都流回了Anthropic和OpenAI，而它们也靠风险投资支持。

With all that money flowing back to Anthropic and OpenAI who are also supported by venture capital funding.

这些风险投资正是它们的客户所需要的。

The same venture capital funding that their customers need.

任何试图把OpenAI或Anthropic评为投资级的做法，都只是推迟它们最终耗尽资金的时刻。

Any attempts to mark OpenAI or Anthropic as investment grade will simply delay the inevitable point at which they run out of money.

如果这些AI实验室规模小得多，或者亏损小得多，或者具体来说，没有签下1.3万亿美元的承诺，情况就不会是这样。

This wouldn't have been the case if these AI labs were much smaller companies or at much smaller losses or, to be specific, hadn't signed $1,300,000,000,000 of commitments.

这些承诺也是照付不议协议，意味着无论它们是否真的有需求来使用这些数据中心，一旦产能上线，Anthropic和OpenAI都必须向亚马逊、谷歌、微软、Cerapress、CoreWeave或其他任何供应商付款。

Said commitments are also take or pay agreements that mean that regardless of whether they have the demand to actually need the data centers, Anthropic and OpenAI will have to pay Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Cerapress, CoreWeave or any number of other providers once the capacity comes online.

前提是它们付得起。

If they can afford it, that is.

不管你怎么看我，或者怎么看更大的AI泡沫，都改变不了一个事实：在有人筹不到钱，无法向Neo、Cloud、超大规模云服务商或AI实验室付款之前，一切看起来都会很正常。

However you may feel about me or the greater AI bubble is immaterial to the fact that everything will seem like it's fine right up until somebody can't raise money and make a payment to either a Neo, Cloud, Hyperscaler or AI lab.

要让这个模式继续运转下去，AI初创公司必须每隔几个月就能筹集到数千亿美元，而每月收入却只有几十亿甚至几百亿美元。

For this to keep working, AI startups must continue to be able to raise hundreds of billions of dollars every few months to make single digit or tens of billions of dollars a month.

同时，Anthropic和OpenAI也必须继续筹集数百亿甚至数千亿美元，用来支付给超大规模云服务商以获取算力，这样他们才能在背负数千亿美元债务的同时，把钱花在英伟达的GPU和博通的TPU上。而英伟达和博通要想每年继续赚取数千亿美元的收入，就必须让贷款方有理由继续发放那数千亿美元的债务，或者为这些债务所投入的数据中心提供担保。

All as Anthropic and OpenAI must also continue to raise tens or hundreds of billions of dollars to pay hyperscalers for compute so that they can, in addition to raising hundreds of billions of dollars of debt, spend that money on GPUs from Nvidia and TPUs from Broadcom, who can only continue to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in revenue as long as they can either provide justifications for lenders to keep issuing those hundreds of billions of dollars in debt or backstop the data sent as the debt will get spent on.

换句话说，AI泡沫的根基，可能只是几百家公司在花钱，去支撑两家公司，从而让五家公司有理由把钱花到一家公司身上。

In other words, the AI bubble is based on the whims of maybe a few 100 companies spending money on two companies to justify five companies spending money with one company.

或者算上博通的话是两家，不过你不想算的话也可以不算。

Or two if you count Broadcom, which you don't have to if you don't want to.

我不太喜欢去想博通或者霍克·谭的事。

I don't I don't like thinking about Broadcom or Hockton very much.

如果有人告诉你不用担心Anthropic——这家公司每年亏损数十亿甚至数百亿美元，却签下了5170亿美元的承诺——那这个人就是个骗子。

Anyone who tells you not to worry about Anthropic, a company that loses billions of dollars a year, if not tens of billions of dollars a year and has made $517,000,000,000 in commitments is a con artist.

还有那些引用别人的话说你不用太操心、不用太担心，或者说这就像互联网泡沫一样的人，他们根本不在乎你的死活。

And anyone who prints a quote saying that you shouldn't have to think about it too hard or you shouldn't have to worry about it or that this is just like the .com bubble, really doesn't give a shit about whether you live or die.

但这确实就是当前科技行业的现状。

But that really is the current state of the tech industry.

一个痴迷于增长的死亡崇拜，被一个痴迷于衡量和庆祝增长以及未来可能推动增长的事物的媒体生态系统所助长。

A death cult obsessed with growth, empowered by a media ecosystem obsessed with measuring and celebrating how much it's growing and what might grow it in the future.

总是以富人和有权势者设定的术语来表述。

Always framed in the terms set by the rich and powerful.

这里每个人未能以清晰和目标迎接这一时刻，将导致一场市场修正，其规模轻易超过互联网泡沫，使许多参与者暴露为骗子、欺诈者、白痴、食尸鬼、懦夫，或完全无知的人。

The failure of everyone here to meet this moment with clarity and purpose will lead to a market correction that dwarfs the .com bubble easily, exposing many of those involved as a phony, a fraud, an imbecile, a ghoul, a coward, or utterly impossibly ignorant.

总之，我周五回来，再带来一段独白。

Anyway, I'll be back Friday with another monologue.

我爱你们。

I love you all.

大学橄榄球会劫持你的周末，毁掉你的睡眠，伤透你的心。

College football will hijack your weekend, ruin your sleep, and break your heart.

这就是我们制作扎实的大学橄榄球口头节目的原因。

And that's why we make the solid verbal college football show.

我是泰·希尔登布兰德。

I'm Ty Hildenbrand.

他是丹·鲁宾斯坦。

He's Dan Rubenstein.

每周，我们都会预览重要的比赛和那些会让你的群聊炸开锅的话题。

Every week, we preview the games that matter and the storylines that are gonna ignite your group chat.

比赛结束后，你也可以加入我们，一起聊聊发生了什么、为什么重要，以及这项运动是怎么彻底疯掉的。

And you can join us in the aftermath as we react to what happened, why it matters, and how the sport went completely bonkers

又一次。

yet again.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts上收听Solid Verbal大学橄榄球节目，

Listen to the solid verbal college football show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

或者你收听播客的任何地方。

or wherever you get your podcasts.

错过了最新的Roland Martin Unfiltered播客？

Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast?

这是你错过的内容。

Here's what you missed.

不应该有任何执法机构不配备随身摄像头。

There should not be a single law enforcement agency that does not have body cameras.

这是真的。

It's real.

黑人农民一直受到攻击。

Black farmers have been under attack.

这只是他们随便把DEI贴在任何东西上的最新例子。

This is just the latest example of them just slapping DEI on anything.

这很直接。

It's raw.

我坐在这里想，他们是在把你们当傻子耍。

And I'm sitting here going, they are playing y'all for fools.

收听罗兰·马丁在黑人信息网络上的每日评论。

Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network.

并在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts上下载Roland Martin Unfiltered。

And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts

或者你收听播客的任何地方。

Or wherever you get your podcasts.

新赛季的NFL已经开始了，你应该收听NFL每日节目，因为我们正迈向第六十一届超级碗。

The new NFL season is here, and you should be listening to NFL daily as we march along to Super Bowl sixty one.

名字就叫NFL每日。

It is in the name NFL daily.

整个赛季，你每天都会在订阅里看到新鲜内容。

You'll have fresh content in your feed every day, all season long.

那个制胜的进攻，可能是赫伯特，可能是吉诺，也可能是马霍姆斯。

That game winning drive, maybe it's Herbert, maybe it's Gino, maybe it's Mahomes.

我们会带来精彩集锦。

We'll have the highlights.

如果费尔南多·门多萨或者其他新秀表现出色，我们会分析比赛录像。

If Fernando Mendoza or any of the rookies are balling out, we'll break down the tape.

和我格雷格·罗森塔尔以及一群明星联合主持人一起，预览和回顾每场比赛。

Join me, Greg Rosenthal, and an all star cast of cohosts as we preview and recap every game.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你收听播客的地方，收听NFL每日播客。

Listen to NFL daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

无论你是NFL的老球迷，还是刚接触这项

Whether you're a seasoned NFL fan or new to the

运动，有一个地方可以让你了解所有动态。

game, there's one place to keep up with all of it.

联盟最新的播客，NFL报道，由我安德鲁·西西利亚诺主持。

The league's newest podcast, the NFL report hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano.

这里是你获取所有足球资讯的家。

It is your home for everything football.

突发新闻、专家分析、比赛预测，还有你最喜欢的球员的采访。

Breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and hear from your favorite players too.

加入我和一群全明星专家，获取联盟内外你需要知道的一切。

Join me and an all star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the league.

整个赛季，每周一到周五，都有NFL报道的新集数。

Get new episodes of the NFL report Monday through Friday all season long.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcast或任何你收听播客的地方，都可以听到NFL报告播客。

Listen to the NFL report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是iHeart播客。

This is an iHeart podcast.

保证真人。

Guaranteed Human.