独白：Anthropic的4130亿美元负担

这是iHeart播客。

This is an iHeart podcast.

保证真人。

Guaranteed human.

我是莱西·莫斯利，作家、演员、脱口秀喜剧演员、创作者，也是《骗子女神》播客的主持人。

I'm Lacey Moseley, author, actor, stand up comedian, creator, and host of scam goddess podcast.

这是一档真实犯罪喜剧播客，内容全是关于抢劫、欺诈以及那些干这些事的人。

The true crime comedy podcast all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it.

每周我都会请来一位很棒的嘉宾。

Each week, I bring on an amazing guest.

哦，我骗了他们。

Oh, I scammed them.

什么？

What?

我可以跟你聊一个小时。

I could talk to you for an hour.

你跟我一样，是个天生的话痨。

You're a generational yapper like me.

所以我才把聊天变成了工作。

That's why I had to make yapping a job.

现在你可以在YouTube上看到我节目的完整版。

And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube.

快去iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客，或者任何你听播客的地方，收听《Scam Goddess》吧。

Start listening to scam goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

《Scam Goddess》。

The scam goddess.

嗨。

Hi.

我是Kylie Brakeman。

This is Kylie Brakeman.

Angel Gerritonna。

Angel Gerritonna.

杰里米·科尔·辛。

Jeremy Cole Hing.

帕特里克·麦克唐纳。

Patrick McDonald.

我们是“艺术家对艺术家对艺术家”播客的主持人。

And we're the hosts hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artist podcast.

这是一档即兴角色喜剧播客，每周都会有新的嘉宾小组

The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel

来讨论他们的技艺。

of artists discuss their craft.

加入我们，和一组欧洲歌唱大赛的参赛者一起。

Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants.

我们偶尔也会搞点万圣节活动。

And we do a little Halloween sometimes.

教皇也会打扮吗？

Does the pope dress up?

他在万圣节那天眨眨眼。

He he winks on Halloween.

他直接走到

He gets right

麦克风旁边。

up next to the microphone.

你可以……

You can...

我听说你几乎能听到睫毛碰撞的声音。

I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other.

你从没见过意大利这么安静，当

You never seen Italy so quiet as when the

教皇在万圣节站起来眨眼的时候。

pope gets up to wink on Halloween.

每周四在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你收听播客的地方，收听《艺术家对艺术家对艺术家对艺术家》。

Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists every Thursday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

丽莎，跟他们说说我们的新节目。

Lisa, tell them about our new show.

我们有个新播客。

We have a new podcast.

名字叫《别骗我》。

It's called Don't Lie to Me.

我是莱克西·伊瓦努。

I'm Lexi Iwanu.

我们是最好的朋友，相差二十二岁，但心贴得很近。

We're two best friends, twenty two years apart, but so close at heart.

我是丽莎·迪朱利奥，年纪大的那个，这意味着我们的梗完全不同，偶尔观点也不一样。

And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.

到了我这个五十多岁的年纪，什么都经历过了。

And at this point in my fifties, I've lived it all.

我三十多岁，作为新鞋品牌的创始人，好品味就是我的事业。

Now in my thirties, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business.

请在

Listen on the

iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你收听播客的平台收听。

iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

错过了最新的Roland Martin unfiltered播客吗？

Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast?

以下是你错过的内容。

Here's what you missed.

不应该有任何执法机构不配备随身摄像头。

There should not be a single law enforcement agency that does not have body cameras.

这是真的。

It's real.

黑人农民一直受到攻击。

Black farmers have been under attack.

这只是他们随意给任何东西贴上DEI标签的最新例子。

This is just the latest example of them just slapping DEI on anything.

这太赤裸裸了。

It's raw.

我坐在这儿就想，他们是在把你们当傻子耍。

And I'm sitting here going, they are playing y'all for fools.

在黑人信息网络上收听罗兰·马丁的每日评论。

Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network.

并在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts上下载Roland Martin Unfiltered。

And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts

或者在你收听播客的任何地方。

Or wherever you get your podcasts.

我是咪咪·布朗，每天在《头版》播客中，我帮你理解那些塑造我们世界的新闻故事。

I'm Mimi Brown, and every day on Front Page podcast, I help you make sense of the stories shaping our world.

每天，我都会解析最重要的头条新闻。

Each day, I break down the biggest headlines.

加拿大与美国的贸易战再次升级，美国人可能会在钱包上感受到影响。

Canada's trade fight with The US just escalated again, and Americans could fill it in their wallets.

当某个故事值得更深入的讨论时，我会和专家、新闻人物以及思想领袖坐下来聊聊，帮你更好地理解新闻背后的议题。

And when a story deserves a deeper conversation, I'll sit down with experts, newsmakers, and thought leaders to help you better understand the issue behind the headlines.

欢迎收听《头版》，来自Black Effect播客网络，你可以在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你收听播客的平台找到我们。

Listen to Front Page from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

呼叫Zone Media。

Call Zone Media.

大家好，欢迎收听本周的《Better Offline》独白节目。

Hello, welcome to this week's Better Offline monologue.

我是主持人Ed Zitron。

I'm your host, Ed Zitron.

路透社一直在一点一点地披露Anthropic的IPO招股书，这让追踪这个故事的人非常恼火，但同时也揭示了一个令人深感担忧的事实：Anthropic在谷歌、亚马逊、微软和博通那里有4130亿美元的不可取消的计算合同和芯片租赁。

So Reuters has continued to drip drip drip Anthropic's IPO prospectus in a way that's very frustrating for anyone trying to follow this story, but in doing so have revealed a deeply worrying truth that Anthropic has $413,000,000,000 worth of non cancelable compute contracts and chip leases across Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Broadcom.

其中2520亿美元是给超大规模云服务商的，1612亿美元是给博通的。

Dollars $252,000,000,000 of that is dedicated to the hyperscalers and $161,200,000,000 to Broadcom.

博通，如果你不知道的话，就是制造谷歌TPU AI芯片的公司，而Anthropic是这些芯片租赁的最大客户，遥遥领先，现在由于这笔交易，也成为购买这些芯片的最大客户。

Broadcom is, in case you didn't know, the company that makes Google's TPU AI chips, of which Anthropic is the largest customer by country mile as far as rentals go, and now as a result of this deal is the largest customer purchasing them.

顺便说一句，是的，Anthropic买了这些芯片，放在谷歌的数据中心里，然后谷歌付钱……

And by the way, yeah, Anthropic buys them, puts them in a Google data center, then Google pay...

他们付钱给谷歌，再把芯片租回来。

They pay Google to rent them back.

不过，这可不是循环融资。

It's not circular financing, though.

别这么说。

Stop calling it that.

总之，在10月1日早上发布的一篇报道中，路透社还透露，博通同意借给Anthropic 420亿美元，用于购买这些TPU芯片，虽然他们把这称为租赁。

Anyway, in a story that came out the morning of October 1, Reuters also revealed that Broadcom had agreed to lend Anthropic $42,000,000,000 to finance purchases of these TPU chips, though they called them leases.

这实际上是购买，这是我们在AI泡沫中看到的第一个类似互联网泡沫时期的供应商融资案例，也就是一家公司借钱给另一家公司，让对方用这笔钱来付给自己。

They're purchases, which is the first example we've seen in the AI bubble of .com style vendor financing, where a company lends another company the money to pay them.

根据路透社的报道，这份合同还允许博通将债务转换为Anthropic的股份，这为AI实验室最终付不起账单的那一天提供了一个有趣的逃生通道。

The contract, per Reuters, allows Broadcom to also convert the debt into Anthropic shares, an interesting escape hatch for the inevitable point at which the AI lab can't actually afford its bills.

另外，博通其实也承担不起这笔债务。

Also, Broadcom really can't afford this debt.

他们显然在筹集600亿到1000亿美元的债务。

They were apparently raising $60 to $100,000,000,000 of debt.

这是不是其中的一部分？

Is this part of this?

如果不是的话，我不知道，这真的说不通。

Because if it's not, I don't know, it doesn't really make sense.

无论如何，那420亿美元只能覆盖Anthropic在博通这边需求的大约三分之一，这意味着他们还得从别处找钱。

In any case, that $42,000,000,000 would only scratch about a third of what Anthropic needs with Broadcom, which means it will have to find the cash elsewhere.

提醒一下本周早些时候的消息，Anthropic在2025年收入46亿美元，却亏损了80亿美元，这意味着这家公司离用现金流来支付这些离谱的成本还差得远呢。

As a reminder from earlier in the week, Anthropic lost $8,000,000,000 on $4,600,000,000 of revenue in 2025, which means that this company is light years away from funding any of these ridiculous costs out of cash flow.

这确实引出一个问题：Anthropic怎么支付所有这些账单？

And really that begs the question, how will Anthropic pay for all these bills?

假设这家糟糕透顶的公司被允许上市，并且评级机构允许它达到投资级——我觉得这应该让相关人员进监狱，我知道这听起来很夸张，但这确实在伤害投资者，而且对他们来说将是历史性的灾难。

Let's assume that this horrible oath of a company is allowed to go public and that the ratings agencies allow it to become investment grade, which I believe should have people put in prison, which I know sounds dramatic, but it actively harms investors and it will be historically awful for them.

即使是这样，这家公司每年也得拉来500亿到1000亿美元的收入。

Even if that were the case, the company would have to pull in somewhere between $50,000,000,000 and $100,000,000,000 a year.

而且即使达到投资级，他们仍然要以7%到10%的利率借款，因为他们的现金流为负，盈利路径也不清晰，投资者会要求相应的风险补偿。

And even at investment grade, they'd still be borrowing at seven to 10% because their negative cash flows and their opaque path to profitability mean that investors would want to be compensated for that risk.

我们要清楚，Anthropic每年都必须成功举债，才能维持运营。

And let's be clear that Anthropic would need to raise debt every single year without fail to keep its business afloat.

而且每次举债，投资者很可能会要求更高的回报。

And every time it did so, investors would likely demand more for their money.

这还是假设债券不会下跌，但实际上肯定会下跌，因为任何关于这家公司的负面消息都会导致债券抛售。

And that would be if the bonds didn't sell off, which they absolutely would because of any negative story about this company.

这一切都假设Anthropic能获得投资级评级，但如果它被评为垃圾级，借款利率可能会在10%到13%之间，这几乎等于致命，基本上就是个人贷款的水平了。

Now this all assumes that Anthropic would get an investment grade rating because if it got a junk rating it would have to borrow at rates somewhere between 1013% which would be effectively lethal, basically a personal loan at this point.

虽然它可以发行可转换债券，也就是如果股价达到某个水平，贷款可以转换为股票，否则利率较低，但借款额度是有限的，而Anthropic每年多次需要数百亿美元来支付高昂的云服务账单，这是不可避免的。

While it could do convertible debt, meaning that the loan would convert into shares if they hit a certain price and would otherwise be a low interest rate, there are limits to how much one can borrow and Anthropic needs tens of billions of dollars multiple times a year without fail to pay the bloody cloud bills.

我还得补充一下，是的，NVIDIA很可能会给它几十亿美元。

I should also add, yes, NVIDIA would likely give it a couple billion dollars.

也会有一些风险投资，但我们说的是数百亿的规模。

There would be some venture investment, but we are talking tens of billions.

我还没提到Anthropic那个糟糕的表亲OpenAI，它也打算在明年某个时候上市，同样需要所有这些债务，并且计划到2030年在云计算上花费7500亿美元。

I haven't even discussed Anthropic's putrid cousin OpenAI who also wants to go public sometime in the next year and will also need all this debt and projects to spend $750,000,000,000 on cloud compute through 2030.

所有那些甲骨文的数据中心，包括新墨西哥州的那个，甲骨文刚刚在那里宣布了不可抗力，都依赖于OpenAI的支付能力，而这又取决于它筹集资金的能力，最终归结为风险投资家或债务市场能否让它活下去。

All those Oracle data centers, including the one in New Mexico where Oracle just declared a force majeure, depend on OpenAI's ability to pay, which will depend on its ability to raise money, which all comes down to whether venture capitalists or the debt markets can keep it alive.

而且，每个人借的钱越多，我指的是AI数据中心公司、AI实验室和超大规模云服务商，大家借钱就越贵，就像几周前我和Paul Kudrowski讨论的那样。

And the more money that everyone borrows, by which I mean AI data center companies, AI labs, and hyperscalers, the more expensive it becomes for everyone to borrow, as I discussed a few weeks ago with Paul Kudrowski.

所有这些AI债务正在与美国国债形成激烈竞争，而此时伊朗和乌克兰的战争正在导致债券市场抛售，当市场上的债券被抛售时，它们的实际利率就会上升，这意味着未来任何政府债务，实际上任何人的未来债务，都必须定价更高。

All that AI debt is creating meaningful competition for US Treasuries, at a time when the war in Iran and Ukraine is causing a sell off in the bond market and when bonds on the market sell off, their effective interest rate goes up, which means that any future government debt, and indeed any future debt from anyone, will have to price higher.

简单解释一下，想象一张债券，一张国债支付5%的利息，购买成本是100美元。

To explain this really simply, imagine a bond, a treasury bond is paying 5% and it cost a $100 to buy.

技术上有点不同，但只是为了举例。

It's technically a little different, but just for the example.

现在，如果那张债券被抛售，有人能以90美元而不是100美元买到它，实际利率实际上更高，因为你花的钱更值了。

Now if that bond sells off and someone could buy it for $90 instead of a $100, the effective interest rate is actually higher because you're getting more bang for your buck.

这说不通。

That doesn't make sense.

给我发邮件。

Email me.

我很乐意解释。

I'll happily explain.

不过，这会让一切都变得更贵。

Nevertheless, this is going to make everything more expensive.

除了有人说一切都会好起来，说这些是全世界增长最快的公司之外，我没听到任何有说服力的反驳。

And I hear no compelling counterargument to any of this outside of people saying it'll all work out and that these are the fastest growing companies in the world.

Ed，看看Anthropic的年化运行率，根据一个疯狂的分析，一个投资者把7月31日的数据乘以365，大约是1.87亿……

Ed, check out Anthropic's annualized run rate, which according to insane analysis was calculated by an investor by multiplying July 31, so approximately a 187,000,000...

抱歉，是1.78亿美元乘以365。

Sorry, $178,000,000 by 365.

如果真是这样，那我怀疑我们听过的每一个运行率数字。

If that's what's happening, I question every single run rate number we've ever heard.

我觉得以前那些是胡扯，现在这些也是胡说八道。

I think they were bollocks before and they're horseshit now.

这种幼稚的思维方式意味着，当事情开始崩溃时，媒体和市场会完全措手不及。

And this childlike thought process will mean that the media and the markets are utterly unprepared for when things begin to collapse.

《The Information》刚刚报道，日本最大的两家银行SMBC和MUFJ，实际上是所有AI数据中心（包括Stargates）的主要支持者。

The Information just reported that SMBC and MUFJ, the two largest Japanese banks and major backers of effectively every AI data center including Stargates.

我是说，实际上，所有数据中心，他们两家或其中一家都参与了每一个项目。

I mean, actually, all of them, think both or one or both of them weigh in every single one.

他们对AI投资变得更加挑剔，这意味着音乐在放缓，灯光在闪烁，很快我们就会知道谁尿了裤子，谁吐了自己一身，或者谁根本付不起账单。

They're becoming more selective with their investments in AI, which means that the music is slowing down, the lights are being turned on and off, and pretty soon we're gonna know who's pissed themselves, puked all over themselves, or simply cannot pay their tab.

现在你听到了那个美妙的比喻，或者我用言语给你讲了个故事，本周就此告别。

Now that you've heard that beautiful metaphor or told you a story in words, I bid you adieu for the week.

下周我会照常回来。

I'll be back next week as ever.

我应该会有一个采访之类的。

I should have an interview of some kind.

我已经准备好了两个非常有趣的采访。

I've got two really fun ones queued up.

真的很期待你们能听到这些。

Really looking forward to you hearing them.

一如既往地感谢大家，我爱你们。

Thanks as ever, and I love you all.

嗨。

Hi.

我是凯莉·布雷克曼。

This is Kylie Brakeman.

安吉拉·格里塔诺。

Angela Gerritano.

杰里米·科尔汉。

Jeremy Colhane.

帕特里克·麦克唐纳。

Patrick McDonald.

我们是《艺术家谈艺术家》播客的主持人。

And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists Artists on Artists podcast.

这是一个即兴角色喜剧播客，每周都有新的嘉宾阵容

The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel

来聊聊艺术家们的创作心得。

of artists discuss their craft.

加入我们，一起听听欧洲歌唱大赛参赛者的分享。

Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants.

我们偶尔也会搞点万圣节活动。

And we do a little Halloween sometimes.

教皇会打扮吗？

Does the pope dress up?

他在万圣节那天会眨眨眼。

He he winks on Halloween.

他会直接

He gets right

走到麦克风旁边。

up next to the microphone.

你可以……

You can...

我听说你几乎能听到睫毛互相碰撞的声音。

I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other.

你从没见过意大利这么安静，就像教皇

You never seen Italy so quiet as when the pope

在万圣节站起来眨眼的时候。

gets up to wink on Halloween.

每周四，在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你收听播客的地方，收听艺术家们之间的对话。

Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists every Thursday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

我是莱西·莫斯利，作家、演员、单口喜剧演员、创作者，也是《骗子女神》播客的主持人，这是一个关于抢劫、欺诈以及那些实施这些行为的人的犯罪喜剧播客。

I'm Lacey Moseley, author, actor, stand up comedian, creator, and host of scam goddess podcast, the true crime comedy podcast all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it.

每周，我都会邀请一位出色的嘉宾。

Each week, I bring on an amazing guest.

哦，我骗了他们。

Oh, I scammed them.

什么？

What?

我可以跟你聊一个小时。

I could talk to you for an hour.

你跟我一样，是个天生的话痨。

You're a generational yapper like me.

所以我才把聊天当成工作。

That's why I had to make yapping a job.

现在你可以在YouTube上看我节目的完整版了。

And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube.

快去iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或者你常用的播客平台收听《Scam Goddess》吧。

Start listening to scam goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

丽莎，跟他们说说我们的新节目。

Lisa, tell them about our new show.

我们有个新播客。

We have a new podcast.

节目叫《别骗我》。

It's called Don't Lie To Me.

我是莱克西·伊瓦努。

I'm Lexi Iwanu.

我们是最好的朋友，相差二十二岁，但心贴得很近。

We're two best friends, twenty two years apart, but so close at heart.

我是丽莎·迪朱利奥，年纪大的那个，这意味着我们的共同话题差别很大，偶尔意见也不一致，而到了我这个五十多岁的年纪，什么都经历过了。

And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my fifties, I've lived it all.

现在三十多岁的我，作为New Shoes的创始人，好品味就是我的事业。

Now in my thirties, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business.

请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或你收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

错过了最新的《罗兰·马丁无删减》播客？

Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast?

这是你错过的内容。

Here's what you missed.

不应该有任何执法机构没有随身摄像头。

There should not be a single law enforcement agency that does not have body cameras.

这是真的。

It's real.

黑人农民一直受到攻击。

Black farmers have been under attack.

这只是他们随便给什么都贴上DEI标签的最新例子。

This is just the latest example of them just slapping DEI on anything.

这很直接。

It's raw.

我坐在这里想，他们是在把你们当傻子耍。

And I'm sitting here going, they are playing y'all for foes.

在黑人信息网络上收听罗兰·马丁的每日评论。

Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network.

并在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts上下载Roland Martin Unfiltered。

And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts

或者你收听播客的任何平台。

Or Wherever you get your podcasts.

我是咪咪·布朗，每天在《头版》播客中，我帮你理解那些塑造我们世界的故事。

I'm Mimi Brown, and every day on Front Page podcast, I help you make sense of the stories shaping our world.

每天，我都会解析最重要的头条新闻。

Each day, I break down the biggest headlines.

加拿大与美国的贸易争端再次升级，美国人可能会感受到钱包的变化。

Canada's trade fight with The US just escalated again, and Americans could fill it in their wallets.

当某个故事值得深入探讨时，我会与专家、新闻人物和思想领袖坐下来，帮助你更好地理解头条背后的议题。

And when a story deserves a deeper conversation, I'll sit down with experts, newsmakers, and thought leaders to help you better understand the issue behind the headlines.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或你收听播客的任何平台，收听来自Black Effect播客网络的《头版》。

Listen to Front Page from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

这是iHeart播客，真人录制。

This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.