独白：Anthropic 放慢脚步

这是iHeart播客，保证真人发声。

This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.

我是梅丽莎·杰尔钦，《她怎么了》播客的主持人。

I'm Melissa Jeltsin, host of the What Happened To Her podcast.

我们这一季的开篇是桑德拉·伯奇莫尔的故事，一起被警方认定为暴风雪中自杀的案件。

We're kicking off the season with the Sandra Burchmore story, a case the police wrote off as a suicide in a snowstorm.

她的家人从不相信这个结论，而他们怀疑的那个人，身上穿着警服。

Her family never bought it and the man they suspected wore a badge.

你永远不知道那个魔鬼是谁，因为他戴着伪装。

You never know who that devil is because he's wearing a disguise.

有时候，伪装就是一身警服。

Sometimes it's a police uniform.

你可以通过iHeart True Crime Plus订阅，在Apple Podcasts上独家收听所有无广告剧集，仅限iHeart True Crime Plus订阅用户。

And you can get access to all episodes 100% ad free with an iHeart True Crime Plus subscription exclusively on Apple Podcasts, available only to iHeart True Crime Plus subscribers.

所以别再等了。

So don't wait.

去Apple Podcasts，搜索iHeart True Crime Plus，今天就订阅吧。

Head to Apple Podcasts, search for iHeart True Crime Plus, and subscribe today.

丽莎，跟他们说说我们的新节目。

Lisa, tell them about our new show.

我们有个新播客。

We have a new podcast.

名字叫《别骗我》。

It's called Don't Lie to Me.

我是莱克西·伊万尤。

I'm Lexi Iwanyu.

我们是最好的朋友，相差二十二岁，但心贴得很近。

We're two best friends, twenty two years apart, but so close at heart.

我是丽莎·迪朱利奥，年纪大的那个，也就是说我们

And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we

有着截然不同的文化参考，偶尔也有不同的意见。

have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.

到了我这个五十多岁的年纪，什么都经历过了。

And at this point in my fifties, I've lived it all.

我现在三十多岁，作为新鞋品牌的创始人，好品味就是我的事业。

Now in my thirties, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business.

可以在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或者任何你收听播客的平台收听。

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

我是Lacey Moseley，作家、演员、脱口秀喜剧演员、创作者，也是Scam Goddess播客的主持人。

I'm Lacey Moseley, author, actor, stand up comedian, creator, and host of scam goddess podcast.

这是一个关于抢劫的真实犯罪喜剧播客，

The true crime comedy podcast all about robbery,

还有欺诈，以及那些干这些事的人。

fraud, and those who practice it.

每周我都会请来一位很棒的嘉宾。

Each week, I bring on an amazing guest.

哦，我骗了他们。

Oh, I scammed them.

什么？

What?

我可以跟你聊上一个小时。

I could talk to you for an hour.

你跟我一样，是个天生的话痨。

You're a generational yapper like me.

这就是为什么我

That's why I had

把聊天变成了工作。

to make yapping a job.

现在你可以在YouTube上看到我节目的完整剧集。

And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube.

开始收听Scam Goddess，在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何

Start listening to scam goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever

你收听播客的地方。

you get your podcasts.

诈骗女神。

Scam goddess.

有成千上万个播客能教你怎么提升自己。

There are thousands of podcasts that can tell you how to better yourself.

《跟着凯尔·布鲁一起变差》可不是那种播客。

Get Worse With Kyle Bru is not one of those podcasts.

所以，如果你想减肥、去看心理医生、开始使用肽类激素、设立边界、吃保健品、让自己变得更好、获得内心的平静，那我诚恳地建议你听听别的播客。

So if you're interested in getting thinner, going to therapy, starting peptides, setting boundaries, taking supplements, making you better, getting closure, then I would humbly recommend other podcasts.

如果你对勒索、情感轰炸、克隆自己或者搞报复感兴趣的话，那我们正好为你这种坏家伙准备了一点小惊喜。

If you're interested in blackmail, love bombing, cloning yourself, or getting revenge, then we've got a little something something for a dastardly individual like you.

想学得更坏一点吗？听听Kyle Pru的节目吧。

Listen to get worse with Kyle Pru on

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts，或者你平时听播客的任何地方都能找到。

the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

错过了最新的Roland Martin无过滤播客吗？

Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast?

这就是你错过的内容。

Here's what you missed.

人们醒来后会说，哦，天哪。

People wake up and go, oh, damn.

等等。

Wait.

等一下。

Hold up.

他们把那些全改了吗？

They changed all of that?

是的。

Yes.

是真的。

It's real.

这是一次全面的攻击。

This is a wholesale attack.

这是针对黑人和所有联邦机构的。

It is targeting black people and every federal agency.

这很直接。

It's raw.

白人从来没有让那种清算持续超过十年。

White folks have never allowed that reckoning to last more than a decade.

收听罗兰·马丁在黑人信息网络上的每日评论。

Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network.

并在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcast上下载罗兰·马丁无删减版。

And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast

或者在任何你收听播客的地方。

Or wherever you get your podcasts.

Callzone Media。

Callzone Media.

你好。

Hello.

欢迎收听本周的《Better Offline》独白节目。

Welcome to this week's Better Offline monologue.

我是主持人，艾德·齐特龙。

I'm your host, Ed Zitron.

《Better Offline》。

Better Offline.

周三晚上，Anthropic的Q3数据通过投资者会议泄露，为IPO做准备，支持者们就像要去新闻发布会一样，兴奋得连午饭都打包好了。

On Wednesday night, Anthropic's q three numbers dropped through leaks from meetings with investors in preparation for its IPO, and boosters have been packing their lunches like they're bugged wire on the way to a press conference.

为什么？

Why?

因为尽管收入达到了168亿美元，但销售额环比仅增长了46%，这看起来可能很多，但Anthropic向投资者和公众推销的整个卖点是其收入永远呈抛物线增长，而且根据推特上的各种吹嘘，预期本季度能达到200亿美元或更多。

Because despite hitting $16,800,000,000 in revenue, sales only grew by 46% quarter over quarter, which might seem like a lot, but Anthropic's entire sales pitch to investors and the general public was that its revenues were eternally parabolic and based on the oinking and squawking from Twitter, the expectation was that it would hit $20,000,000,000 or more for the quarter.

这些狂热者如此不满的另一个原因是，Anthropic没有公布新的年化运行率数据。

Another reason the hogs are so upset is that Anthropic neglected to include a new annualized run rate figure.

这个数字通常是拿过去28天的收入乘以13得出的，目的就是让公司收入看起来更大，并以一种我认为极具欺骗性的方式外推增长。

A made up number derived from multiplying, in most cases, a trailing twenty eight day period's worth of revenues by 13 specifically to make the company's revenue seem bigger and extrapolate growth in what I'd describe as a deeply deceptive way.

Anthropic没有这么做的原因，很可能是因为这个数字比支持者们预期的要低。

Reason Anthropic neglected to do so is that it's likely that the number was lower than boosters expected.

几个月前，彭博社和其他媒体报道说，截至7月底，这个年化运行率已经达到了650亿美元，这意味着大家的预期是在750亿到900亿美元之间。

A few months ago Bloomberg and others reported that said run rate had hit $65,000,000,000 at the end of July which means that expectations had them set anywhere from $75,000,000,000 to $90,000,000,000.

不过我得说，这些数字全都是胡扯，而且这些文章从来没有解释过这个数字是怎么算出来的，以及它指的是哪个时间段。

Though, I should add that these numbers are all complete bullshit and none of these articles ever explain how the number is derived and over what period it referred to.

实际上，彭博社只是说“短期年化”。

In fact, Bloomberg just says a short period annualized.

这完全就是废话，一点用都没有。

It's completely fucking useless.

不管怎样，支持者们就是喜欢这些又大又漂亮的数字，因为它们能让他们用听起来比实际情况好得多的方式来描述Anthropic的增长。

In any case, boosters have loved these big beautiful numbers because they allowed them to express Anthropic's growth in terms that made things look far better than they were.

几个月前，多家媒体报道说投资者预计Anthropic的年化运行率到年底会达到1000亿美元，现在很多人都在发帖说这不可能实现了，那语气就像发现自己的狗快死了一样。

A few months ago, multiple outlets had reported investors expected Anthropic's run rate to hit $100,000,000,000 by the end of the year, and now many of them are posting that's not going to happen with the tone of someone who found out their dog is dying.

泄露的信息还显示，Anthropic的调整后营业利润率是11%，调整后毛利率是85%。

The leak also revealed that Anthropic had an adjusted operating margin of 11% and adjusted gross margins of 85%.

所谓“调整后”是指那些不符合GAAP标准的东西，GAAP就是公认会计原则，因为它把股票补偿、研发或者公司想剔除的任何成本都排除在外了，因为这是非GAAP的。

Adjusted is a term used to describe stuff that's not up to the standards of GAAP, generally accepted accounting principles, because it leaves out costs like stock based compensation, R and D or well anything the company wants to because it's non GAAP.

不过，有些媒体用这个来暗示Anthropic快要盈利了，意思是如果没有那些开支的话，它就能盈利了。

Nevertheless, some outlets are using this to suggest that Anthropic is approaching profitability as in it would be profitable if it wasn't for all the expenses.

故事里还有一个波折，Anthropic提到它收入的5%到7%来自蒸馏，也就是中国模型开发者用它的服务来训练自己的模型，这意味着它第三季度收入中有8.4亿到11.7亿美元来自竞争对手，他们一边构建竞争产品，一边还得付钱给Anthropic。

Another wrinkle in the story was that Anthropic noted that five to 7% of its revenues came from distillation, as in Chinese model developers using its services to train their own models, meaning that anywhere from $840,000,000 to $1,170,000,000 worth of its Q3 revenues came from its competitors building competing products and paying them for the privilege.

Anthropic最近报告说，它已经采取措施将这些所谓的攻击减少了90%以上，这在竞争层面是个好消息，但也意味着它的收入多年来被人为夸大了，可能夸大了数十亿美元。

Anthropic recently reported that it had taken measures to reduce these attacks as they call them by more than 90%, which is good news on a competitive level, but also means that its revenues have for several years been artificially inflated probably by billions of dollars.

这一切让Anthropic陷入了两难境地。

This all puts Anthropic in kind of a bind.

为了匹配目前的收入增长，它需要再增长大约53.6%的季度环比，因为它的收入基数现在大概低了5%，这意味着第四季度它需要大约258亿美元的收入。

To match its current revenue growth, it would need to grow another 53.6% or so quarter over quarter as its revenue base is now I assume about 5% lower, meaning it needs about $25,800,000,000 or so in Q4.

顺便说一句，如果低于20亿，那简直就是灾难。

Anything less than 20 is a fucking disaster by the way.

根据Ramp Data的数据，Anthropic和OpenAI企业收入的80%来自前1%的客户，而这些客户中绝大多数都是不盈利、不可持续的AI初创公司，这意味着这种增长主要还得靠那些靠风投烧钱的公司来维持，而且得永远这样下去。

And per Ramp Data, 80% of Anthropic and OpenAI's enterprise revenues come from the top 1% of its customers, with the vast majority of those being unprofitable, unsustainable AI startups, meaning that that growth will mostly have to come from venture backed money losers in perpetuity.

Ramp上周还报告说，尽管使用量在上升，但AI支出却在下降，而这一切偏偏发生在最不该发生的时候。

Ramp also reported last week that AI spend is falling despite rising usage at exactly the wrong time for all of this to be happening.

而且这一切跟Better Offline三分之一世纪核心浪潮的猛烈抛售撞了个正着，现在因为那些在金融市场上押注的傻瓜们，情况又有所回升，因为他们相信NVIDIA CEO黄仁勋说核心浪潮财务状况良好，NVIDIA不需要给它兜底，尽管NVIDIA已经为它的租赁做了担保，还砸了几十亿美元进去。

And all of this times extremely poorly with an aggressive sell off of Better Offline third of the century Core Wave, which has now reversed somewhat because of the dunces that bet on the financial markets on NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang saying that Core Wave was in good financial condition and that NVIDIA did not need to backstop it despite the fact that NVIDIA has already backstopped Core Wave's leases and sunk billions of dollars into the company.

我在任何一篇报道里都没看到这些事实被提出来跟黄仁勋的评论放在一起，因为显然对所有人来说，做新闻这行太难了。

I do not see these factoids in a single fucking story mentioning Jensen Huang's comments because journalism is apparently too fucking difficult for everyone.

而这个问题对安抚债券市场几乎没什么作用，尽管股票稍微反弹了大约3%，我正看着呢。

And this problem did very little to calm the bond market despite the stock bursting a little bit by about 3% as I'm looking at it.

Core Weave的债务现在收益率至少14.6%，最差的那笔交易在15.47%，这意味着那些离真金白银最近的人，那些真正持有债务、关心实际付款的人，正在把Core Weave的债务当成垃圾中的垃圾来定价。

Core Weave's debt now trades at a yield of at least 14.6% with its worst one trading at 15.47%, meaning that those closest to the actual money, the actual debt, the actual, you know, payments of stuff are pricing Core Weave's debt like the junkiest of the junk.

我觉得垃圾债最差的也就17%、20%左右。

I think the worst of junk is like 17, 20%.

所以还有一段距离，但已经相当垃圾了。

So some ways to run, but pretty damn junky.

就在这一切闹得沸沸扬扬的时候，Gartner发布了一份报告，说到了2030年，80%的新云服务商都会停止运营，还补充说未来三年AI收入的预测比实现12%投资资本回报率所需的数字少了数万亿美元。

And as all of this boiled over, Gartner released a report saying that by 2030, 80% of neo clouds would have ceased operations, adding that forecasts for AI revenues in the next three years were trillions of dollars short of what it would take to have even a 12 return on invested capital.

我得说清楚，他们的假设是AI能带来三万五千亿美元的收入，但实际还差好几万亿美元。

And I must be clear, the assumption that they have is that AI will make $3,500,000,000,000 worth of revenue, and there's still trillions of dollars off.

说清楚点，AI的年收入连三千亿美元都不到。

Just to be clear, AI AI is not even making $300,000,000,000 of annual revenue.

如果大家真的去查一下，包括Gartner在内，都会知道这一点。

People would know this if they fucking looked, including Gartner.

Gartner有资源去做这件事。

Gartner has the resources.

为什么没人愿意去查一下呢？

Why is no one fucking bothering?

我觉得自己快疯了。

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

这还是在Jefferies报告发布几天后，报告说所谓的AI热潮最可能的结果是美国资本的大规模毁灭。

And this was mere days after a Jefferies report came out that said that the most likely outcome of the so called AI boom would be a massive capital destruction in The US.

我只想问你一个问题。

I just need to ask you a question.

这样好吗？

Is that good?

我是梅丽莎·杰尔钦。

I'm Melissa Jeltsin.

在我的新播客《她怎么了？》里，

And in my new podcast, what happened to her?

我每周都会带来新的故事和对话。

I'm bringing you new stories and conversations every week.

这些故事讲述的是那些死因被草率判定为自杀的女性。

Stories about women whose deaths were too quickly ruled a suicide.

她开始担心起来，为自己的安全感到害怕。

She was starting to get worried and get scared for her safety.

还有幸存的故事。

Stories of survival.

坦白说，我和她唯一的区别就是运气好一点，因为按理说，我也该死。

The only difference between me and her, frankly, was a little bit of luck because by all rights, I should be dead.

那些别人都说是已经结案的案子。

Cases that everyone else called closed.

他们没法给她定罪，对吧？

They can't convict her, right?

你看，她有那么多的证据。

Like, she has so much evidence.

这些故事都有一个共同的起点：一个女性被制度辜负了，那个制度不相信她，不保护她，也看不见她。

These stories all start in the same place, with a woman failed by system that didn't believe her, that didn't protect her, that didn't see her.

没有哪个孩子应该经历那种事。

No child should ever experience that.

而那时候我们还只是婴儿。

And we were babies.

她做了那么多勇敢的事，站出来说出来，结果他只被判了一年。

She did all of these brave things and came out and spoke about it and he got a year.

你永远不知道那个魔鬼是谁，因为他戴着伪装。

Never know who that devil is because he's wearing a disguise.

有时候是警察制服。

Sometimes it's a police uniform.

想听她的故事，可以在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或者任何你收听播客的地方收听。

Listen to what happened to her on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

丽莎，我们应该告诉他们我们的新节目。

Lisa, we should tell them about our new show.

天哪，莱克西。

Oh my god, Lexi.

我们有个新播客。

We have a new podcast.

名字叫《别对我说谎》

It's called Don't Lie

《别骗我》。

to Me.

我是莱克西·伊瓦努。

I'm Lexi Iwanu.

我们是两个最好的朋友，虽然相差二十二岁，但心却贴得很近。

We're two best friends, twenty two years apart, but so close at heart.

我是丽莎·迪朱利奥，年纪比较大的那个，所以我们的

And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we

参考背景差异很大，偶尔观点也不太一样。

have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.

到了我这个五十多岁的年纪，什么经历都尝过了。

And at this point in my fifties, I've lived it all.

我打架也争不出个所以然来。

I'm not gonna get anywhere fighting.

这也太离谱了。

That is wild.

今天我才算是真正了解你这一点。

I learned that about you today.

我现在三十多岁了，作为New Shoes的创始人，品味就是我的事业，而且我向来有话直说。

Now in my thirties, being the founder of New Shoes, good taste is my business, and I've always got something to say.

如果男人能在这件事上坦诚一点，世界上就会和平很多。

If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world.

我们要聊约会、美容、变老，

We're gonna talk about dating, beauty, getting older,

还有变得更聪明一点。

and a little wiser.

我们是好朋友，

We're best friends,

但我们并不总是意见一致。

but we don't always agree.

因为你告诉我们你有多随和。

Because you told us how accommodating you are.

显然，我会尽我所能去抗争，但我的抗争能力是有限的。

Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight.

别骗我。

Don't lie to me.

别骗我。

Don't lie to me.

别骗我。

Don't lie to me.

别骗我。

Don't lie to me.

别骗我。

Don't lie to me.

别骗我。

Don't lie to me.

骗子。

Liar.

请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你收听播客的地方收听。

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

我真的不在乎。

I don't really care.

我是莱西·莫斯利，作家、演员、单口喜剧演员、创作者，也是《骗子女神》播客的主持人。

I'm Lacey Moseley, author, actor, stand up comedian, creator, and host of scam goddess podcast.

这是一个关于抢劫、欺诈的真实犯罪喜剧播客，

The true crime comedy podcast all about robbery, fraud,

以及那些干这些事的人。

and those who practice it.

每周，我都会请来像柯南·奥布莱恩、爱荷华·黛布拉、拉莫恩·莫里斯和妮可·拜尔这样的精彩嘉宾。

Each week, I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debra, Lamorne Morris, and Nicole Byer.

哦，我骗了他们。

Oh, I scammed them.

什么？

What?

我可以跟你聊一个小时。

I could talk to you for an hour.

你跟我一样，是个天生的话痨。

You're a generational yapper like me.

这就是为什么

That's why

我不得不把闲聊当成工作。

I had to make yapping a job.

而骗局

And the scams

五花八门。

run the gamut.

我说的是从十九世纪一直到今天的各种骗局。

I'm talking about scams from the eighteen hundreds all the way up to today.

我还会提醒你，保护你免受骗子的侵害。

I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers.

给祖父母打个电话。

Call your grandparents.

告诉你的父母别再乱点链接了，拜托。

Tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please.

现在你可以在YouTube上观看我节目的完整集数。

And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube.

如果有骗局，我会保护你，也会陪你一起笑。

If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you, and I'm also here to laugh with you.

如果你喜欢有趣的内容、喜剧，还想学习如何防范犯罪，那就开始在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你收听播客的地方订阅《诈骗女神》吧。

So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to scam goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

那里

There

市面上有成千上万个播客教你怎么自我提升。

are thousands of podcasts that can tell you how to better yourself.

但《跟着Kyle Bru一起变差》可不是那种节目。

Get Worse With Kyle Bru is not one of those podcasts.

所以，如果你是想减肥、去做心理咨询、开始打肽类激素、设立个人边界、吃保健品、让自己变得更好，或者寻求情感上的了结，那我诚恳地建议你听听别的播客。

So if you're interested in getting thinner, going to therapy, starting peptides, setting boundaries, taking supplements, making you better, getting closure, then I would humbly recommend other podcasts.

但如果你对勒索、爱情轰炸、克隆自己，或者搞复仇感兴趣的话，那像你这号坏心眼的人，我们这儿倒是有那么点特别的东西适合你。

But if you're interested in blackmail, love bombing, cloning yourself, or getting revenge, then we've got a little something something for a dastardly individual like you.

听听我们到目前为止给出的一些不可思议的建议。

Take a listen to some of the incredible advice we've given so far.

假装背部受伤。

Fake a back injury.

去做个喷雾晒黑。

Get the spray tan.

增加你的饮酒量。

Up your alcohol consumption.

只有女性才应该被允许拥有枪支。

Only women should be allowed to have guns.

杀了他们。

Kill them.

杀了他们。

Kill them.

杀

Kill

用枪干掉他们。

them with

用枪。

a gun.

听好了。

Listen.

已经结束了。

It's already over.

如果事情真的发生过，我完全赞成撒谎。

I'm all about lying if it's something that really happened.

下次有熊朝你冲过来的时候，你就冷静地停下手里的事，直视熊的眼睛，然后说：这不是你。

The next time a bear is running at you, you just calmly stop what you're doing, you look the bear in the eye, and you say this isn't you.

不要维系关系。

Do not preserve relationships.

你不需要它们。

You don't need them.

你只需要一样东西，那就是《越变越糟》播客节目。

You only need one thing, and that's the Get Worse podcast.

欢迎收听由凯尔·普鲁主持的《越变越糟》

Listen to Get Worse with Kyle Pru on

iHeartRadio应用、苹果播客，或者你平时收听播客的任何平台都能找到我们。

the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

新的NFL赛季已经开始了，在我们一路朝着第61届超级碗前进的这段时间，你一定要收听《NFL每日报道》。

The new NFL season is here, and you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl sixty one.

去年我们有麦克唐纳德和萨姆·达诺尔德在赛后出现在球场上，但那是去年的事了。

Last year, we had Mike McDonald, Sam Darnold on the field after the game, but that was last year.

如果你像我一样是个足球狂热粉，《NFL每日》就是为你量身打造的节目。

If you're a football sicko like me, NFL Daily is your kind of show.

节目名字就叫《NFL每日》。

It is in the name NFL Daily.

整个赛季期间，每天都能在你的信息流里看到新鲜内容。

Fresh content in your feed every day, all season long.

马修·斯塔福德刚刚结束了一个MVP级别的赛季。

Matthew Stafford coming off as MVP season.

马修那令人惊艳的传球

On a dazzling darts from Matthew

斯塔福德。

Stafford.

斯塔福德。

Stafford.

重磅交易，重磅交易，震撼了整个NFL。

Big Big time time trades trades that that shake shake up up the the NFL.

NFL。

NFL.

AJ·布朗火力全开。

AJ AJ Brown is loose.

当然，还有海鹰队，他们想卷土重来，再拿一座隆巴迪奖杯。

And, of course, those seahawks trying to run it back and win another Lombardi trophy.

海鹰队赢得了第六十届超级碗。

The seahawks win Super Bowl sixty.

他们把隆巴迪奖杯带回了西北地区。

They are bringing Lombardi back to the Northwest.

只要足球场上发生事情，NFL每日都会报道。

If it's happening on a football field, NFL Daily will cover it.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你收听播客的地方收听NFL每日。

Listen to NFL Daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

总之，美国和亚洲的市场都因为这些坏消息而有点下跌。

Anyway, markets in both The US and Asia puked a little on all of this bad news.

Anthropic的增长必须非常惊人，才能配得上它要求的2万亿美元估值，并支付其4130亿美元的不可取消合同。

Anthropic's growth had to be absolutely meteoric to warrant its supposed demands for a $2,000,000,000,000 valuation and to pay for its $413,000,000,000 worth of non cancelable contracts.

这家公司之前被定价为完美，并且其承诺取决于实现增长，而这种增长最终取决于其客户能筹集多少风险投资资金，并继续以不断增长的金额投入到只亏损的企业中，就像OpenAI和Anthropic一样。

This company had been priced for perfection and made promises contingent on achieving growth that at some point comes down to how much venture capital money its customers can raise and continue spending in ever growing amounts for businesses that only lose money, you know, much like OpenAI and Anthropics.

录制这个节目真的很有趣。

This has been a lot of fun to record.

我承认，我有一阵子做节目有点卡住了。

I will admit I got a little stuck with the show for a bit.

我之前没有像我想的那样玩得开心。

I hadn't been having as much much fun as I wanted.

我意识到，是因为我没有表现出对这些公司的鄙视。

I realized it's because I've not been showing my fucking contempt for these companies.

我觉得它们全都让人恶心。

I find all of them sickening.

我觉得那些用假数字吹嘘自己自尊和资产负债表的人，真的很可鄙。

I find the people that inflate their egos and their balance sheets, at least with fake numbers, truly despicable.

我觉得那些所谓的新闻专业人士还在用年化率，还把它们当回事，这很可鄙。

I find it contemptuous that the so called journalistic professionals out there are still using run rates, that they're taking them seriously.

我看到金融分析师也把它们当回事。

I see financial analysts taking them seriously as well.

我不是金融背景出身。

I don't come from a finance background.

我就是个普通人，只是读了很多东西。

I'm just a regular guy who read a lot of stuff.

我跟你说点事儿。

And let me tell you something.

AI泡沫居然建立在那些扯淡的精灵数字和神奇的运行率数学上，这简直太丢人了。

It is fucking disgraceful that the AI bubble has had anything based on these fucking elf numbers, this magical math of run rates.

看到那些猪猡因为没拿到新数字而嗷嗷叫，既让人觉得解气，又让人觉得恶心。

And to see the hogs braying so oinkily about the fact that we didn't get a new number is both vindicating and sickening.

你们这些混蛋真该去看看真实的数字。

You motherfuckers should actually look at the real numbers.

你们应该想要真实的数据。

You should want real data.

你们不应该想要那些精灵数字。

You shouldn't want elf numbers.

你们不应该想要那些虚构的运行率。

You shouldn't want imaginary run rates.

任何在听这个的记者，如果你们还在用运行率，那你们就是在失职。

And any journalist listening to this, if you are still using run rates, you are failing at your job.

别搞错了。

Make no mistake.

我……

I...

我这话可不是随便说说的。

I'm not mincing words here.

如果你们用这些数据，却没有一个巨大的免责声明，说明你们没有底层矩阵。

If you're using them without a giant goddamn disclaimer saying that you don't have the underlying matrices.

它们是……

They are...

计算它们的底层方式。

Underlying way that they're calculated.

要用粗体和斜体标出来，就像香烟包装上的警告一样，不然你们就是在失职。

I mean, in bold and italics, like a warning sign on a pack of fucking cigarettes, you are failing at your job.

这就是事实。

That is just the truth.

我知道这可能会让你心里不舒服，但只有痛了，事情才他妈的能改变。

I know this might hurt your feelings, but your feelings need to be hurt for something to fucking change.

因为一旦爆雷，后果会严重得多，毕竟之前是靠这些虚浮的数据吹起来的。

Because when this explodes, it's gonna be so much more harmful because it got inflated on these flimsy numbers.

每年都有人一看到真实数据就炸毛，真是让人无奈。

Annual notice that everyone seems to freak out the moment real numbers come into the picture.

一旦我们了解到这些公司真实的财务状况，大家就开始慌了。

The moment we learn the actual underlying financial conditions of these companies, people begin to panic.

在真正的行业里，如果某样东西真的值这么多钱，真实的数据本该是好消息。

In a real industry, in something that actually is worth all this money, the real numbers would be good news.

真实数据能反映出AI到底做得怎么样。

The real numbers would show you how well AI was doing.

可每次拿到真实数据，结果都让人失望。

Yet whenever we get a real number, it sucks.

真是糟糕透了。

It fucking sucks.

而且还在继续糟糕下去。

And it continues to suck.

这简直太疯狂了。

It is fucking crazy.

我这周把它写进了我的通讯里。

I put it in my newsletter this week.

就是那个……

It's the...

那是年化安然率。

It was annualized Enron Rate.

我喜欢这个标题。

I love that title.

我把它写进去了，但我们不知道绝大多数AI初创公司的财务状况。

I put it in there, but we don't know the financial profile of the vast majority of AI startups.

我们现在有什么？

We now have what?

Anthropic 差不多两年的收入数据了。

Nearly two years of Anthropic revenues.

大部分时间里，我们不知道他们的成本。

We don't have their costs for most of it.

多亏了我，我们有 OpenAI 2024 和 2025 年的审计财务数据。

We have, thanks to me, the audited financials of OpenAI for 2024 and 2025.

我们没有 Perplexity 或 Cognition 的股份。

We don't have share on Perplexity or Cognition.

Cognition 估值 480 亿美元，但我们对它的损益表一无所知。

Cognition's worth $48,000,000,000 and we don't know anything about its p and l.

我们只有那些该死的年化运行率。

We just have fucking annualized run rates.

10 亿美元的年化运行率。

1,000,000,000 annualized run rate.

谁他妈在乎啊？

Who gives a fucking shit?

抱歉，我没能把话说得更委婉一些。

I'm sorry for not being more eloquent about this.

我知道。

I know.

但我就是控制不住自己。

But I just can't help myself.

我就是忍不住鄙视这些破公司，还有那些记者用烂招帮他们吹捧。

I can't help myself for having contempt for these fucking companies and the shitty ways in which journalists help inflate them.

吹捧他们的自尊，吹捧他们的财务状况，帮他们融资。

Inflate their egos, inflate their financial profiles, help them raise money.

今天我看到好几家财经媒体在给Core Web和Anthropic打掩护。

I have watched multiple financial outlets today run cover for both Core Web and Anthropic.

那根本不是你们该干的事。

That's not your fucking job.

如果你作为记者，在事情进展不顺利时还本能地想讲个好故事，那你就不再是在做新闻了，除非你是在报道事实。

If you feel the instinct to tell a good story when things are going badly as a journalist, you are no longer participating in journalism unless you are reporting.

我是说，真正地去报道一些东西。

I mean, actually reporting something.

我不是说我看了一下调整后的...

I don't mean I've looked at the adjuster...

调整后的评级。

Adjusted rated.

我一直在关注调整后的运营利润率，然后我找到了一个不错的观察角度。

I'm keeping it adjusted operating margins, and I found a good way of looking at it.

我做了些粗略的计算，然后想出了一个新方法，让运行率看起来不错。

I've done some napkin maths, and I've come up with a new way the run rate could be good.

那不是新闻。

That is not journalism.

那纯粹是营销。

It's fucking marketing.

所以如果我对这些事情有点激动，请原谅我。

So forgive me if I'm a little bit fiery about this stuff.

如果我骂那些做这种事的人是白痴，请原谅我。

Forgive me if I'm calling people fucking idiots for doing this stuff.

如果我说那些用这些运行率的人不专业，请原谅我。

Forgive me for saying people are not acting in a professional way when they use these run rates.

请原谅我。

Forgive me.

其实，别原谅我。

Actually, don't.

我根本不在乎。

I don't give a fuck.

我在乎的是真相，我受够了听这些该死的数字。

What I give a fuck about is the truth, and I'm sick of hearing these fucking numbers.

我受够了新闻业这样捧这些公司。

I am sick of the ways in which journalism is holding up these companies.

这不会改变任何事情的。

It's not gonna change a thing.

而且就像我说的，随着更多真实数据出来，情况只会更糟，因为AI的实际底层经济逻辑根本行不通。

And as I've said, as more real numbers come out, things will get worse because the actual underlying economics of AI do not work.

我知道你们很多人给我发邮件表示同意，我真的很喜欢。

And I know so many of you email me agreeing, and I love it.

我爱你们所有人。

I love you all.

我真的爱你们。

I truly do.

如果你是新来的，这是指菜单上的那个。

And that is a reference to the menu if you're new here.

我只是……

And I'm just...

我很高兴有你们，但我很沮丧，因为即使有Anthropic这个消息，我看向我的终端时，我想，也许这会把事情推向临界点。

I'm happy to have you, but I'm frustrated because even with this Anthropic news, as I look over at my terminal, I thought, maybe this will push it over the edge.

不。

No.

股价又涨回去了，就因为黄仁勋那家伙说他们没事。

Call weaves back up because Jensen fucking Huang said they're fine.

市场就是这么蠢。

This is how dumb the markets are.

当然，媒体也就是照抄那些废话。

And, of course, journalism just copy pasting that shit.

不用动脑子。

No need to think.

不用考虑。

No need to consider.

不用有观点，甚至不用有任何想法。

No need to have an opinion or even form any thought at all.

直接把故事塞进去就行。

Just put the story in the bag.

就这么简单。

That's all it takes.

那你猜怎么着？

Well, guess what?

所有参与其中的人，无一例外，不管你在哪儿，所有帮着吹大这些公司的人，等这玩意儿爆了，责任都在你。

Everyone who participated in that without exception, don't care where you were, everyone who helped inflate these companies, when this shit explodes, it's on you.

如果你在听这个，而且你是个干过这种事的记者，那责任也在你。

If you're listening to this and you're a journalist who's done this stuff, it's on you.

你现在还能改变一些事情。

You can still change things.

你可以站出来反对这些公司。

You can turn against these companies.

你完全可以去抵制背后那些烂透了的经济逻辑。

You can actually push back on the underlying rotten economics.

但你不会的。

You won't.

抱歉。

Sorry.

我知道你不会的。

I know you won't.

如果是因为你的编辑不让你这么做，请告诉我，因为至少我想知道你们中有谁被压制了。

And if it's because your editors are telling you not to, please reach out and tell me because I'd at least like to know those of you who are being muzzled.

但如果你没有被压制，你使用运行率是因为你真的认为它们是有用的衡量标准，那你要么是无知，要么是腐败。

But if you're not being muzzled, if your reason for using run rates is because you actually think they are a useful measurement, you're either ignorant or corrupt.

你自己选。

You choose.

我意识到这有点严厉。

I realized that was a little damning.

我意识到这有点残酷。

I realized that was a little brutal.

但我要说实话。

But I'm gonna be honest.

这就是现在的节目。

This is the show now.

我……

I have...

我真的放下了那些让《Better Offline》变得很棒的东西，也就是与这一切的真实情感连接，发泄我的不满，像我在节目最后那样即兴发挥一下。

I really let go of what made Better Offline great, which was the actual emotional connection with all of this stuff, airing the frustrations I have, ad libbing a little as I have at the end of this.

说实话，我他妈太喜欢这么干了。

I'll be honest, I fucking love doing it.

下一集你们真的会听到我的这种热情。

And you're gonna really hear that in the next episode.

我请来了节目早期，大概前十集，甚至更早时候的一位原始嘉宾。

I'm joined by an original guest of the show within the first, like, 10 episodes, maybe less.

汤姆·多坦。

Tom Dotan.

他为《名利场》写了一篇关于拉里·埃里森和他那个不成器的儿子大卫的精彩文章。

He wrote an amazing piece of Vanity Fair about Larry Ellison and his big wet son, David.