独白：进入詹森宇宙

这是iHeart播客。

This is an iHeart podcast.

保证真人。

Guaranteed human.

在新播客《Solita》中，我们分享女性独自旅行的真实混乱。

On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.

我可以等四个小时

I can wait four hours for

等下一班公交车，或者这个陌生男人让我搭他的摩托车。

the next bus, or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.

我选了第二个选项。

I chose option b.

我是朱莉·皮涅罗，我独自旅行，因为这是一个难得的空间，我可以不用先问别人就说是。

I'm Julie Pinheiro, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.

我致力于重新定义“solita”这个词，把同情换成可能性。

I'm on a mission to reclaim the word solita, trading the pity for possibility.

在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple Podcasts 或任何你收听播客的地方，收听《Solita》。

Listen to solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your

被囚禁九个月，我一生都在探索别人如何从本该摧毁他们的经历中幸存下来。

nine months in captivity, and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them.

我是伊丽莎白·斯马特，这里是《幸存者档案》。

I'm Elizabeth Smart, and these are the Survivor Files.

每周，我都会和那些经历过难以想象之事的幸存者在一起，他们被绑架、被跟踪、被控制，几乎被沉默。

Every week, I'm with survivors who lived through the unthinkable, abducted, stalked, controlled, and nearly silenced.

这些故事讲述的是活着走出来需要付出什么。

These are stories about what it takes to make it out alive.

在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple Podcasts 或任何你收听播客的地方，收听《伊丽莎白·斯马特的幸存者档案》。

Listen to the survivor files with Elizabeth Smart on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

嘿。

Hey.

我是海耶斯·达文波特。

This is Hayes Davenport.

还有肖恩·克莱门茨。

And Sean Clements.

我们主持的播客叫《好莱坞手册》。

We host the podcast Hollywood Handbook.

每周我们都会和一位演艺圈人士聊天，试着帮他们发展事业，也看看他们能给我们带来什么。

Each week, we talk to someone in show business and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.

大家都玩得很开心，而且没人会因为经纪人让他们上我们的节目而生气。

Everyone has a good time, and no one gets mad at their publicists for letting them do our show.

我们请过很多大牌嘉宾，比如莎拉·谢尔曼、亚当·斯科特、丹尼·麦克布莱德、本·斯蒂勒，还有很多其他大人物，他们能有今天全靠我们。

We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, Adam Scott, Danny McBride, Ben Stiller, and a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.

在iHeartRadio应用、苹果播客或任何你收听播客的地方，收听《好莱坞手册》。

Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

我们的家乡不是实验室的试管。

Our hometown is not a test tube.

在纳什维尔东北90英里处，一个小镇上正在上演一场关乎美国未来的较量。

90 miles Northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small town.

有右翼背景的开发商买下了数百英亩的土地。

Developers with right wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land.

我们需要一座座山巅之城。

We need cities on a shining hill.

这里是《我们的小镇》，一档关于一个小镇成为社会实验现场并奋起反抗的播客。

This is Our Town, a podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment and fights back.

猜你没想到会惹上

Guess you didn't move in on a bunch

一群愚蠢的乡巴佬吧？

of dumb hillbillies now, did you?

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或你收听播客的任何地方收听《我们的小镇》。

Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

呼叫Zone Media。

Call Zone Media.

你好，欢迎收听最新一期的《Better Offline》独白。

Hello, and welcome to your latest Better Offline monologue.

我是你的主持人，艾德·齐特龙。

I'm your host, Ed Zitron.

《Better Offline》播客。

Better Offline.

土拨鼠又一次看到了自己的影子，因为英伟达公布了创纪录的营收，继续吹大这个越来越危险的AI泡沫，收入高达960亿美元，其中16%来自一个未透露姓名的客户。

The Groundhog once again saw its shadow with NVIDIA reporting record earnings, continuing to inflate an ever more dangerous AI bubble with $96,000,000,000 worth of revenue and 16% of that coming from a single unnamed customer.

在2027财年的上半年，英伟达1778亿美元的收入中，有44%来自仅仅三个客户。

For the first half of fiscal year twenty twenty seven, 44% of NVIDIA's $177,800,000,000 in revenue came from a mere three customers.

顺便说一下，这些都是其2027财年第二季度财报的一部分。

As a note, this was all part of its second quarter fiscal year twenty twenty seven earnings.

你可能会觉得困惑，但英伟达的财年是从前一年的2月1日到当年的1月31日。

You are going be confused but NVIDIA's fiscal years run from February first of the year before to January 31 of the year off.

所以现在是2027财年，从2026年2月1日开始。

So it's currently fiscal year 2027, which began on 02/01/2026.

挺烦人的，但这不是我定的。

Annoying, but I didn't do it.

别怪我。

Don't blame me.

别因为NVIDIA的生意方式生我的气。

Don't be mad at me for how NVIDIA does business.

总之，更糟的是，NVIDIA目前70%的应收账款——也就是已经发货给客户但还没收到钱的设备——来自五家客户。

Anyway, to make matters worse, 70% of NVIDIA's current accounts receivable, so gear that's been shipped to a customer that's yet to be paid for, is from five customers.

NVIDIA在报告中也提到，对于某些投资级客户，它提供的付款期限从九十天到整整一年不等。

Something that NVIDIA reported while adding that for certain investment grade customers, it was offering payment terms ranging from ninety days to an entire year.

如果你想知道投资级指的是什么，CoreWeave和Nebius这两家不盈利的新云服务商，它们存在的目的就是借钱买GPU，然后主要租给那三四家公司，它们的债务被评级机构评为投资级，因为它们的合同有信用良好的公司做担保。

If you're wondering what investment grade could refer to, both CoreWeave and Nebius, two unprofitable neo clouds that exist only to raise debt and buy GPUs mostly to rent them to the same three or four companies have had their debt rate is that as investment grade by ratings agencies because they're collateralized by contracts by companies with good credit.

评级机构到底是怎么回事？

What is it with ratings agencies?

每次你把手挡在脸前，它们就会说，它们去哪儿了？

It's just like every time you could you put your hands in front of your your face and they'll be like, where'd they go?

总之，这一切用很复杂的方式说明，NVIDIA的绝大部分收入来自少数几家公司。

Anyway, all of this is a very complex way of saying that the vast majority of NVIDIA's revenue comes from a handful of companies.

包括过去几年占其收入超过50%的超大规模云服务商在内，每一家现在都因为成本飙升而依赖债务。

Each one, including hyperscalers that make up more than 50% of its revenue over the last few years, are now reliant on debt thanks to skyrocketing costs

的

of

英伟达的GPU。

NVIDIA's GPUs.

虽然英伟达在收入上毫无疑问是盈利且蓬勃发展的，但这只是因为少数几家公司愿意被黄仁勋牵着鼻子走。而且这一切开始看起来像是，AI泡沫只有在英伟达能持续注入资金和炒作的情况下才会继续膨胀。

While NVIDIA is unquestionably profitable and thriving revenue wise, it's only doing so because of a few companies who are willing to be fin domed by Jensen Huang, And it's all beginning to look like the AI bubble only continues to inflate as long as NVIDIA can keep pumping it full of money and hype.

你看，在财报发布前，英伟达向Poolside投入了60亿美元，这是一家陷入困境的开源LLM公司，今年早些时候未能筹集到数十亿美元，英伟达挖走了其大部分员工，其创始人表示这并非收购式招聘，但除了所有人都离开以及创始人之外，这实际上就是。

You see, in the run up to earnings, NVIDIA sunk $6,000,000,000 into Poolside, a flailing open source LLM company that failed to raise billions of dollars earlier in the year, hiring away most of its staff in what its founders said was not an aqua hire, other than the fact that everyone's leaving and other than the founders.

另外，有传言称英伟达还将向表现不佳的AI搜索公司Perplexity投入数十亿美元，其估值高达300亿美元，这太疯狂了，它根本不值这个价。

Anyway, NVIDIA is also rumored to be sinking billions into pathetic AI search company Perplexity, a $30,000,000,000 valuation, which is insane, and it's not worth that.

很可能是因为Perplexity是世界上少数几家购买大量AI算力的公司之一。

Likely because Perplexity is one of the few companies in the world that buys any significant amount of AI compute.

可能每年几亿美元，但我只是猜测。

Likely a few $100,000,000 a year, but I'm just guessing.

它还在投资Stargate Abilene Landsium，估值数十亿美元，同时也在考虑投资AI数据中心电力公司Cloverleaf，并为OpenAI在俄亥俄州租用的、由软银支持的数据中心提供超过1000亿美元的资金支持。

It's also investing in Stargate Abilene Landsium at a multibillion dollar valuation as well as considering putting money into AI data center power company Cloverleaf and backstopping over a $100,000,000,000 of a SoftBank backed data center for OpenAI to rent out in Ohio.

不过，这个资金支持只有在项目真正建成后才会生效。

Although that backstop only kicks in if the thing actually gets built.

芯片，芯片，抱歉，我漏了一个。

Chip, Chip, sorry, forgot one.

NVIDIA还在以不到130亿美元的价格收购AI模型托管平台Hugging Face。

NVIDIA is also buying AI model hosting platform Hugging Face for a little under $13,000,000,000.

给你一些背景信息，Hugging Face的年化收入是1.5亿美元，算下来每月只有1250万美元，考虑到它的知名度，这个数字小得可怜。

For some context, Hugging Face had $150,000,000 in annualized run rate, which works out to a pathetic $12,500,000 a month, which is insanely small considering its notoriety.

感觉好像每家AI公司都挺糟糕的。

It's almost as if every AI company just kinda kinda stinks.

提醒一下，NVIDIA已经投资了Anthropic、OpenAI、CoreWeave、Nepios、Iren、Nscale、Intel、SpaceX，还有Wrecker和Weka，这两家居然是不同的公司。

As a reminder, NVIDIA has invested in Anthropic, OpenAI, CoreWeave, Nepios, Iren, Nscale, Intel, SpaceX, and both Wrecker and Weka which are somehow two different companies.

它为CoreWeave的租赁提供了担保，签了超过300亿美元的多年度协议来租回自己的GPU，还搞了一些奇怪的收入分成协议，同意为数据中心提供担保，并从中获得超过一定门槛的收入分成，这显然取决于那些东西能不能建成并付钱。

It has backstopped CoreWeave's leases, signed over $30,000,000,000 in multi year agreements to rent back its GPUs, and created bizarre revenue share deals where it agrees to backstop data centers and receive a cut of the revenue above a certain threshold, which is obviously dependent on the bloody thing being built and also being paid for.

在最近一次财报电话会议上，首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯表示，尽管有这么多交易让资金在完美的循环中流动，公司并不认为这是循环融资。首席技术宅詹姆斯·基南正在嘟囔着关于朱迪思和玛格达莱纳的什么。

And on its latest earnings call CFO Colette Cress said that the company did not see this as circular financing despite there being so many different deals where the money moves in a perfect circle the main nerd James Keenan is mumbling some shit about Judith and Magdalena.

AI泡沫越来越关乎黄仁勋和英伟达能否不断给数据中心和AI模型公司打补丁，同时也关乎超大规模云服务商能否持续借到足够的债务来支付他们的GPU等费用。

The AI bubble is becoming increasingly about whether Jensen Huang and NVIDIA can keep slapping duct tape on the sides of data center and AI model companies and in turn whether hyperscalers can keep raising enough debt to keep paying for their GPUs and more.

引用摩根士丹利的林赛·泰勒和尼尚特·萨迪亚姆的话，英伟达现在是一家“资产负债表即服务”公司，承诺金额超过3660亿美元，其中包括尚未开始的250亿美元数据中心租赁，这很奇怪，因为英伟达是销售数据中心GPU的公司。

To quote Lindsay Tyler and Nishant Sadyam of Morgan Stanley, NVIDIA is now a balance sheet as a service company with over $366,000,000,000 in commitments, including $25,000,000,000 of data center leases yet to commence, which is strange considering NVIDIA is the company that sells the data centers the GPUs.

为什么英伟达需要租回GPU呢？

Why is why does NVIDIA need to rent back the GPUs?

我以为AI需求那么高，黄仁勋。

I thought the demand for AI was so high, Jensen.

如果你还没感到有点担忧，黄仁勋还在一次分析师电话会议上声称，世界已经实现了人工通用智能，他将其定义为技术的终极形态，即机器能够自主思考和行动。

And if you weren't already a little bit concerned, Huang also claimed on an analyst call that the world has already achieved artificial general intelligence, which he defines as the ultimate form of the technology where the machines can think and act for themselves.

当然，这并没有真正发生，也不会真正发生，他真该因此被媒体痛批。

This has, of course, not actually happened, will not actually happen, and should genuinely get him lambasted in the press.

但因为数字上涨了，大家都高兴。

But because number has gone up, everybody is happy.

太好了。

Yay.

太好了。

Yay.

干得好，黄仁勋。

Good job, Jensen.

通用人工智能来了。

AGI's here.

太好了。

Yay.

真是要命。

Fucking kill me.

然而，财报电话会议上最蠢的话竟然出自英伟达的CFO，她说英伟达在2028财年（从2027年2月1日开始）营收将增长70%。

Yet somehow the dumbest thing that was said on the earnings call came from NVIDIA's CFO, said that NVIDIA will grow its revenue by 70% in fiscal year twenty twenty eight, which begins 02/01/2027.

我知道这很烦人。

I know it's annoying.

根据当前财年的共识预测，收入为3960亿美元，这意味着英伟达预计明年收入将超过6740亿美元。

And based on consensus estimates for the current fiscal year being at $396,000,000,000 this means that NVIDIA is expecting to make over $674,000,000,000 next year.

这不是不可能，但要实现这一点，英伟达需要其现有客户，主要是亚马逊、谷歌、微软、Meta、SpaceX和甲骨文，可能将GPU订单翻倍，同时像CoreWeave这样的新云服务商需要借更多的债。

It's not impossible, but to do this, NVIDIA will need its current customers, predominantly Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, SpaceX, and Oracle, to likely double their current orders for GPUs, as well as neo clouds like CoreWeave to raise even more debt than they're currently raising.

而且说得更清楚一点，CoreWeave现在为了吸引投资者，已经要支付超过9%的债务利息。

And to be abundantly clear, CoreWeave is already having to pay over 9% interest on its debt just to get investors through the door.

再说一遍，不是不可能，但这需要借更多的债。

Again, not impossible, but it's gonna require so much more debt.

我的意思是，到明年这个时候，债务肯定要超过一万亿美元了。

I I mean, this must be over 1,000,000,000,000 at this point in the next year.

这简直太疯狂了。

It's it's completely fucking insane.

就像OpenAI和Anthropic必须不断增长收入、客户群和融资轮次，以履行超过1.1万亿美元的计算协议一样，英伟达必须通过科学或魔法，找到办法让客户每个季度都能买越来越多的GPU，一直持续到永远。

And much like OpenAI and Anthropic must continue growing their revenues, customer base and funding rounds to meet over $1,100,000,000,000 in compute agreements, NVIDIA must, through science or magic, find ways for its customers to be able to buy more and more and more GPUs every single quarter from here into eternity.

我反复说过，AI繁荣只有在债务能够支撑的情况下才可能持续。

As I have said again and again, the AI boom is only possible as long as debt can sustain it.

软银为了给OpenAI融资，已经借了数百亿美元的债务，现在又试图发行200亿美元的债券来偿还这些债务。

SoftBank has had to take out tens of billions of dollars of debt to fund OpenAI and now is trying to sell $20,000,000,000 of bonds to refinance that debt.

CoreWeave只有在银行给钱的情况下才能继续建数据中心。

CoreWeave can only keep building data centers as long as the banks give it money.

甲骨文、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta、SpaceX这些公司靠现金流根本买不起GPU，所以只能靠借债来继续购买。

Oracle, Google, Amazon, Meta, SpaceX cannot afford to buy GPUs out of cash flow and thus are dependent on debt to continue buying those GPUs.

就连英伟达自己也不得不发行了超过250亿美元的债券。

Even NVIDIA itself has had to take out over $25,000,000,000 in bonds.

可能实际上是200亿美元吧，不管怎样，这都是一大笔钱。

Maybe it's $20,000,000,000 Regardless, still a lot of money.

还有那个所谓的5000亿美元基金，我在这里打引号。

And that supposed $500,000,000,000 fund, I'm doing air quotes.

你们看不到，因为这是音频播客，但据彭博社报道，根本不是那么回事。

You can't see it because this is an audio podcast, per Bloomberg is nothing of the sort.

我会在节目笔记里附上那篇文章的链接，但那个声明实际上只是英伟达说一群资产管理公司会投资5000亿美元建AI数据中心，而这个数字，我引用原文，"没有明确的来源"。

I'll link to the article in the notes, but that announcement was literally just NVIDIA saying that a group of asset managers would invest $500,000,000,000 in AI data centers, that number, and I quote, had no obvious provenance.

根据分析师的预测，超大规模云服务商之所以花这么多钱，是因为Anthropic和OpenAI已经承诺在未来三年半内租用GPU，金额超过4000亿美元。

Hyperscalers are only spending this money because Anthropic and OpenAI have committed to spend over $400,000,000,000 renting GPUs in the next three and a half years, according to analysts.

如果没有这笔支出，他们30%或更多的云收入就会蒸发。

And without that spend, 30% or more of their cloud revenues will evaporate.

比如，根据瑞银的数据，到2027年，Anthropic和OpenAI将占谷歌云收入的48%以上，这只有在他们既能负担得起这笔费用，而且数据中心容量确实可用的情况下才能实现，而数据中心的建设又遥遥无期。

For example, per UBS, Anthropic and OpenAI will make up over 48% of Google Cloud's revenues in 2027, which will only be possible if they can both afford to spend the money and the data center capacity is actually available, and data centers is taking forever.

另一个问题。

Another problem.

英伟达正在投资每一个对AI模型有点兴趣的家伙，这绝对是这么说的，因为任何AI公司破产或进行一轮降价融资，都会打破AI是下一次工业革命的假象，而不是一系列不同的公司互相递钱，希望商业模式能出现。

NVIDIA is investing in every schmuck with a penchant, that's definitely how you say it, for AI models because any AI company becoming insolvent or doing a down round would break the illusion that AI is the next industrial revolution rather than a series of different companies handing money to each other in the hopes that a business model arrives.

没人恐慌的原因是，目前还没有发生什么坏事。

The reason nobody is freaking out is that nothing bad has happened yet.

英伟达的大客户仍然能筹到钱来支付费用，而它那些糟糕的新云业务后代也能继续从那些被分析师和媒体关于AI前景和稳定性的谎言所欺骗的轻信投资者那里，从债务市场上捞钱。

NVIDIA's big customers can still raise money to pay it, and its horrible neo cloud progeny can continue to loot the debt markets from gullible investors who have been lied to by analysts and the media about AI's promise and stability.

一切都归结于，AI是否能在无限期获得近乎无限的资源，而当这些资源放缓或停止时，音乐也会随之停止。

Everything comes down to whether near infinite resources are available for AI in perpetuity and when those resources slow or stop, so too will the music.

下周我会和我的兄弟们Caleb和Arif一起回来，聊聊那些糟糕的AI垃圾内容，还有我们脑子里乱七八糟的其他东西。

I will be back next week with my boys Caleb and Arif to talk about horrible AI slop and whatever else crosses our wretched little minds.

感谢你们的收听。

Thank you for listening.

我爱你们。

I love you all.

在新播客Solita里，我们分享女性独自旅行时的真实混乱经历。

On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.

我可以等四个小时的

I can wait four hours for

下一班公交车，或者这个陌生男人主动提出用他的摩托车载我一程。

the next bus, or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.

我选了第二个选项。

I chose option b.

我是Julie Pinheiro，我独自旅行，因为那是一个我可以不用先征求别人意见就答应的难得空间。

I'm Julie Pinheiro, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.

我决心重新定义“solita”这个词，把怜悯变成无限可能。

I'm on a mission to reclaim the word solita, trading the pity for possibility.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你收听播客的地方，收听《solita》。

Listen to solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

我曾在囚禁中幸存九个月，此后一生都在探索他人如何挺过那些足以摧毁他们的经历。

I survived nine months in captivity, and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them.

我是伊丽莎白·斯马特，这里是《幸存者档案》。

I'm Elizabeth Smart, and these are the Survivor Files.

每周，我都会与那些经历过难以想象之事的幸存者在一起，他们曾被绑架、跟踪、控制，几乎被噤声。

Every week, I'm with survivors who lived through the unthinkable, abducted, stalked, controlled, and nearly silenced.

这些故事讲述的是如何活着走出来。

These are stories about what it takes to make it out alive.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你收听播客的地方，收听伊丽莎白·斯马特的《幸存者档案》。

Listen to the survivor files with Elizabeth Smart on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

嘿。

Hey.

我是海斯·达文波特。

This is Hayes Davenport.

还有肖恩·克莱门茨。

And Sean Clements.

我们主持播客《好莱坞手册》。

We host podcast Hollywood handbook.

每周，我们都会和一位娱乐圈的人聊天，试着帮他们发展事业，看看他们能给我们带来什么。

Each week, we talk to someone in show business and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.

大家都玩得很开心，也没人因为经纪人让他们上我们的节目而生气。

Everyone has a good time, and no one gets mad at their publicists for letting them do our show.

我们请过很多大牌嘉宾，比如莎拉·谢尔曼、亚当·斯科特、丹尼·麦克布莱德、本·斯蒂勒，还有很多其他大腕，没有我们他们可到不了今天这个位置。

We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, Adam Scott, Danny McBride, Ben Stiller, and a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你收听播客的地方，收听《好莱坞手册》。

Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

我们的家乡不是实验室的试管。

Our hometown is not a test tube.

在纳什维尔东北方向90英里处，一场关乎美国未来的较量在一个小镇上演，这里成了社会实验的现场，而小镇奋起反抗。

90 miles Northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small small town becomes the site of a social experiment and fights back.

猜你现在不是搬进了一群

Guess you didn't move in on a bunch

愚蠢的乡巴佬中间吧？

of dumb hillbillies now, did you?

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你收听播客的地方收听《我们的小镇》。

Listen to our town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是iHeart播客，保证真人制作。

This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.