独白：Meta承认自己购买了过多的GPU

这是iHeart的播客节目。

This is an iHeart podcast.

百分百真人制作。

Guaranteed human.

做生意却不考虑做播客？

Run a business and not thinking about podcasting?

你再想想。

Think again.

听播客的美国人比听Spotify和Pandora广告版流媒体音乐的人还多。

More Americans listen to podcasts than ad supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora.

作为排名第一的播客平台，iHeart的规模是第二名和第三名加起来的两倍。

And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined.

了解一下播客怎么帮你的生意增长。

Learn how podcasting can help your business.

拨打844844。

Call 844844

拨打Zone Media。

Call zone media.

大家好，大家好，您好，致敬各位。

Greetings, greetings, hello, and salutations.

我是埃德·齐特隆，这是您本周的《更好离线》独白。

I'm Ed Zitron, and this is your Better Offline monologue for the week.

更好离线。

Better Offline.

本周早些时候，彭博社报道，据称Meta正在规划一项云基础设施业务，打算在首席执行官马克·扎克伯格于年度股东会上表示Meta的算力“或许用不上，但也可以卖出去”之后几周，向外界出售其AI计算能力和模型。

Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported, and I quote, that Meta is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business that will sell access to its AI computing power and models a few weeks after CEO Mark Zuckerberg said at its annual shareholders meeting that he thought that Meta had a use for its compute, but it could set it if it didn't.

我真的很喜欢他说的这句话。

I genuinely love that he said that.

这就像，我花了一千亿美金，总得有个正当理由吧。

It's like, I think I spent a $100,000,000,000 for a good reason.

不过现在还说不准。

Don't know yet, though.

至少从这件事来看，Meta等于承认自己把GPU的产能建过头了。

And there's no other sensible way at least to interpret this news other than that Meta is admitting that it overbuilt its GPU capacity.

在五次重组AI团队之后，花140亿美元收购Scale AI却找不到任何合理理由，推出过好几款诡异的智能眼镜，还有那些用名人脸做的AI聊天机器人，甚至害得一位患有痴呆的老人丧了命。

After five different reorganizations of its AI team, a $14,000,000,000 acquisition of Scale AI for no imaginable reason, multiple versions of their some pervert glasses, and celebrity faced AI chatbots that have led an old man with dementia to his death.

我不是在开玩笑。

I'm not kidding.

我会给你发一篇Jeff Horwitz在路透社写的深度报道。

I'll link you to that great Jeff Horwitz piece from Reuters.

事实上，Meta根本没必要进军AI，唯一的原因就是扎克伯格是个没法被解雇的空谈家，身边围着一群唯唯诺诺的跟班，比如博兹、亚当·默斯基和哈维尔·奥利万，他们只会迎合他的每一个念头，不管多荒唐的点子都点头说好。

In reality, Meta never had any reason to get into AI other than the fact that Zuckerberg is a directionless oath that can never be fired from the company, surrounded by loadsome yes men like Boz, Adam Mersky, and Javier Olivan, who cater to his every whim and say yes to any idea no matter how goddamn stupid they are.

每次我听到Meta的人说话，都能感觉到他们身上弥漫着一种深深的无力和绝望——被困在一个公司里，这个公司根本不是为了建立真实的人际连接，而是一场大规模的社会实验，只为榨取更多广告收入。

Every time I hear from somebody at Meta, they vibrate with sadness and despair lost in a company that exists as a large social experiment to try and conjure up more ad revenue for a platform designed to engage far more than build any meaningful connections.

AI乐观派和那些刚被撞晕的人会说，这其实是个聪明的决定，因为现在Meta终于能靠AI的资本支出赚钱了。这种话只有像大科技公司那样彻底没辙、走投无路的人才说得出口。

AI bulls and the recently concussed argue that this is actually a smart move because now Meta can monetize its AI CapEx, the kind of ridiculous thing you say when you, like big tech, are fundamentally out of ideas and horribly desperate.

Meta这么做，只是因为除了想办法把那些该死的GPU变成钱之外，它根本不知道还能做什么。

Meta is doing this because Meta has no idea what to do other than to try something, anything to make some money out of these goddamn GPUs.

真正的问题是，Meta会把它们卖给谁，又能卖多少钱。

The real question is who Meta will sell to and how much it will sell.

Epoch估计，到2025年第四季度，Meta的总算力大约有16.1吉瓦。

Epoch estimates that it has around 1.61 gigawatts of total capacity as of the fourth quarter of twenty twenty five.

如果是这样，那它们迟早会被Anthropic或者OpenAI买走。

And if that's the case, it's invariable that it gets snapped up by that Anthropic or OpenAI.

而且一旦发生这种情况，我们就彻底完了。

And by the way, when that happens, we're at the top, we're done.

咱们把这事儿收个尾吧。

Wrap this bad boy up.

如果没人买，我真不知道除了这两家公司之外，还有谁会需要算力——我估计他们俩已经占了全球AI算力的七成到八成五。

And if it doesn't do that, I'm not sure what the demand looks like outside of those two companies who I estimate take up anywhere from 70% to 85% of all global AI compute.

meanwhile，《The Information》报道，英伟达正在向那些租用其GPU的新兴云服务商提供财务支持，说是换取对方收入的一部分，说白了就是付钱让客户买他们的设备。

Meanwhile, The Information reports that Nvidia is offering, and I quote, financial backstops to young cloud providers that rent its GPUs in exchange for a share of their revenues, a euphemism for literally paying their customers to buy their stuff.

这等于直接承认，英伟达根本看不到AI算力有广泛而坚实的需求。

This is a direct admission that Nvidia doesn't see there's a diverse or rigorous demand for AI compute.

这些糟糕的小型云服务商要想靠出租GPU做生意，唯一的办法就是像寄生虫一样扒在英伟达身上。

That the only way that these horrible little neo clouds can ever run a business renting out GPUs is by letting them latch onto the side of Nvidia like a parasite.

很明显，AI算力根本不存在大规模的需求，真正的客户只有两个烧钱大户——Anthropic和OpenAI，它们每年亏损数百亿美元，却看不到任何盈利的可能。

It's blatantly obvious that demand doesn't exist at scale for AI compute, and that the only real customers are two bulbous fail sons, Anthropic and OpenAI, that lose tens of billions of dollars a year with no path to profitability.

这根本不是什么真正的产业，而是科技行业在放弃早期投资、赶走真正做事的人之后，陷入增长枯竭、迷失方向的写照。

This is not a real industry, but a reflection of the desperation and directionlessness of a tech industry that's run out of hyper growth ideas after giving up on investing at the seed stage and chasing out those who actually build real things.

这个行业活该迎来它应得的惩罚。

This industry deserves the punishment that's coming for it.

靠债务驱动的超大规模服务商资本支出，加上明明没有IT需求却硬塞现金的模式，推高了全球股市，让世界押注于一笔根本不可能实现的数万亿美元收入，这纯粹是空中楼阁。

The debt fueled hyperscaler CapEx, no IT loads refused cash dump has pumped the global stock market and left the world invested in an impossible payoff of trillions of dollars of revenue, well, that will never exist.

所有参与吹大这个泡沫的人，都该感到羞愧。

Everybody involved in inflating this bubble should be ashamed of themselves.

那些当初无视我的警告，反而迷信亚马逊云和优步神话的人，现在该明白，你们对即将到来的混乱负有部分责任。

Everybody who refused to heed my warnings in favor of the mythologies of Amazon Web Services and Uber should know that they are partly to blame for the chaos that will follow.

这件事多年前就再明显不过了。

This was blatantly obvious years ago.

我这节目还没开播之前，这事儿就明摆着了。

It was obvious before I started this show.

这事儿早就清清楚楚，不是一天两天了。

It's been so obvious for so long.

我在这方面越来越在行了。

I've got better at this.

我的论点变得更细致了，但核心观点从来没变过。

I've got more nuanced in my arguments, but my arguments have stayed the same.

生成式AI根本不存在可行的商业模式。

There is no business model in generative AI.

不可能以持续盈利的方式大规模提供推理服务。

There is no way of serving inference at scale in a way that is consistently profitable.

人们会为此争论不休，会在各自的博客上叽叽喳喳。

And people will argue about this and people will have the little natterings on their various blogs.

我不会去看那些东西。

I won't read them.

我还有事要忙。

I've got stuff to do.

不好意思。

Sorry.

但说实话，我看到的每一件事都在一一应验。

But the truth is that everything I'm seeing has been coming true.

我一直想提醒大家，你们所有人。

I've been trying to warn people, all of you.

我知道我面对的观众里，很多人其实早就明白了。

I know I'm speaking to an audience that kinda gets it already.

你们一直陪着我，我真的很感激。

All of you have been sticking with me, and I love it.

我刚上了CNBC，那期节目表现不错。

I was just on CNBC, did a great hit there.

我会在简介里放上链接。

I'll link to it in the notes.

真不想挂Twitter的链接，但那是我唯一能上传而不被版权投诉的地方了。

Hate to link to Twitter, but it's one of the only places I can actually upload it without getting DMCA ed.

不过我相信你们一定会喜欢这次访谈。

But I think you're really gonna like that interview.

主流媒体终于开始关注这些话题，这说明我们快把这事掀开了，他们现在拼命往新闻里加内容，想让人觉得‘我们其实一直跟得上’。

And the fact that the mainstream is finally opening up to these stories is a sign that we're wrapping this up, and they're trying to kind of layer on the news and layer on the stories that say, hey, we we didn't fall behind this.

我们早就盯上了。

We were on this.

他们现在来做，算不错了，就是有点太晚了。

And good on them for doing it, albeit a little too late.

其实，现在这些所谓的热议，都太迟了，也太少了。

In fact, I think all of the kind of bubble discussion is too little too late.

还有Glammystammy、clammy、clammy、clamatha、clamual、clamatha。

And now Glammystammy, clammy, clammy, clamatha, clamual, clamatha.

我们喜欢clammy。

We love clammy.

我们不喜欢clamatha。

We don't like clamatha.

他打算把OpenAI的5%股份给美国政府，我猜是为了换钱。

He wants to give 5% of OpenAI to the US government, I assume, in exchange for money.

我知道有些人会说，这简直就是一场救助计划。

And I know some of you are gonna say that's a lineup to a bailout.

不是的。

No.

根本不是那么回事。

It isn't.

这需要国会批准，而眼下AI在选民中可是最不受欢迎的东西之一。

It'll require congressional approval, and this is at a time when AI is one of the least popular things in the world with voters.

而且，也没人愿意把四百亿美金扔给该死的萨姆·阿尔特曼。

And also, no one wants to give $40,000,000,000 to goddamn Sam Altman.

所有迹象都表明，这事迟早会炸，我觉得再过六个月就该爆了——可这话我都说了快半年了。

All signs to this all all signs point to this, I mean, blowing up sometime, I think, in the next six months, and I feel like I've been saying that for about six months.

但我们现在已经开始看到那种 desperation 的苗头了，也听到了这些对话。

But we're seeing the desperation start, and we're hearing these conversations happen.

我觉得事情要变得古怪了。

I think things are gonna get weird.

事情会变得非常古怪。

Things are gonna get very weird.

下周我们会和 Trash Future 团队一起做一期联合节目，聊一聊孙正义那场满嘴跑火车的股东讲话，还有 AI 炒作泡沫的崩盘。

And next week, we've got a great joint episode with the Trash Future crew talking about Masayoshi Son's goose filled shareholder speech and the collapse of the AI hype cycle.

你一定会喜欢的。

You're gonna love it.

我保证。

I promise.

谢谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

以前一直捉摸不定，但现在出现了一种全新而令人兴奋的方式，帮你开启更快乐的生活。

So elusive but now there's a new and exciting way to start your journey toward a more joyful existence.

《快乐入门》是我在主持的新播客，如果你渴望灵感来提升幸福感，就来收听这些真诚、鼓舞人心又动人的对话吧。打开免费的I Heart Radio应用，搜索‘快乐入门’，立即收听。《快乐入门》由我主持，由CBS出品。

Joy one zero one it's a new podcast hosted by me how to copy if you're craving inspiration to maximize your joy tune into these candid uplifting and moving on air chats open your free I heart radio app search joy one zero one and listen now joy one zero one with how to copy is presented by CBS.

我的第一位嘉宾是凯伦·蒂尔顿。

My first guest is Karen Tilton.

夏奇拉。

Shakira.

卢克和耶林。

Luke and Yering.

制造惊喜。

Have surprises.

很多惊喜。

Many surprises.

嘿，怎么样？

What up?

欢迎来到《甜蜜305》播客，这里让群聊活了起来。

Welcome to the Sweet three zero five podcast where the group chat comes to life.

最近怎么样？

What up?

你是唯一一个喜欢黄色星爆糖的人。

You're the only person I know that loves a yellow starburst.

那是柠檬味的。

It's lemonade.

这里是Suite 305。

This is Suite 305.

在这里，敞开心扉分享是被鼓励的。

Here, oversharing is encouraged.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcast或你常用的播客平台收听Lele Pons主持的Suite 305。

Listen to Suite 305 with Lele Pons on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

我是杰克·布伦南。

I'm Jake Brennan.

在《Disgraceland》播客里，我深入挖掘摇滚明星的荒唐谎言，以及音乐史上那些令人难以置信的真实犯罪故事。

And on the Disgraceland podcast, I explore the wild lies of rock stars and unbelievable true crime stories from music history.

这些是你从来没听过的故事，听完你肯定会讲给别人听。

These are the stories you haven't heard, the kind you'll end up telling someone else.

比如保罗·麦卡特尼曾经被关进过臭名昭著的监狱，女神卡卡被指控卷入的一桩怪事，还有金发女郎黛比·哈里从特德·邦尼手里逃脱的那段经历。

Like the time Paul McCartney spent in a notorious prison or the bizarre crime Lady Gaga is accused of or that time blondies Debbie Harry escaped Ted Bunny.

在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple Podcasts，或者你常用的任何播客平台收听《Disgraceland》。

Listen to Disgraceland on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

世界杯正在进行，精彩得让人难以置信。

The World Cup is underway, and it's been incredible.

在我们的播客《The Away End》里，丹尼尔·阿拉孔和约翰·格林会和你聊聊那些让我们激动的比赛、激励我们的球队，还有我们喜欢的、意外的点点滴滴——全都是从狂热球迷的角度出发，谈论这项世界上最美的运动。

On our podcast, The Away End with Daniel Alarcon and John Green, we're talking about the games that have delighted us, teams that have inspired us, what we're loving, and what surprised us, all through the lens of being massive fans of the world's most beautiful game.

丹尼尔，这届世界杯到目前为止简直像魔法一样。

Daniel, this tournament has been magical so far.

精彩太多了，我真没想到小组赛就带来了这么多戏剧性。

There's so much to love that I can hardly believe the drama that the group stage brought us.

现在，随着球队不断被淘汰，只剩下最后几支争夺冠军的队伍，我们来聊聊剩下的球队吧——冠军将在7月19日诞生。

And now it's time for us to talk about the teams that are left as the field is whittled down to one World Cup champion on July 19.

在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客或你常用的播客平台收听《The Away End》节目，主持人是丹妮尔·阿兰孔和约翰·格林。

Listen to the Away Inn with Danielle Alarcon and John Green on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是 iHeart 播客出品的《 Guaranteed Human 》。

This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.