本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
这是iHeart的播客节目。
This is an iHeart podcast.
百分百真人制作。
Guaranteed human.
做生意却不考虑做播客？
Run a business and not thinking about podcasting?
你再想想吧。
Think again.
听播客的美国人比听Spotify和Pandora广告版音乐的人还多。
More Americans listen to podcasts than ad supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora.
作为排名第一的播客平台，iHeart的规模是第二名和第三名加起来的两倍。
And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined.
了解一下播客怎么帮你的生意增长。
Learn how podcasting can help your business.
拨打844844咨询。
Call 844844
大家好
Hey, everybody.
我是塔瑞卡·福斯特·布拉兹比
I'm Tareka Foster Brasby.
各位最近怎么样？
What's up, y'all?
我是切丽尔·斯伍普斯
I'm your girl, Cheryl Swoops.
每期收听我们的播客《Levels To This》，你都能听到深入的WNBA赛事分析
When you tune in to a new episode of our podcast Levels To This, you're definitely gonna get some spy CWNBA analysis.
但我们聊的远不止篮球，真正重要的是我们带来的真实对话
But we're more than just hoops, and the real conversation is what we actually bring.
看到这些女性在球场外真正展现出自己的力量，意识到她们本身就是篮球，真的特别棒
It's been really, really cool seeing kind of these women just really step into their power off the court and understand that they are basketball.
对吧
Right?
她们根本不需要征得谁的同意。
And they're not asking for permission.
在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客或你常用的任何播客平台收听《Levels To This》，主播是谢丽尔·斯沃普斯和塔雷卡·福斯特·布拉兹比。
Listen to levels to this with Sheryl Swoops and Tareka Foster Brasby on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
我是艾米莉·奥斯特。
I'm Emily Oster.
我是一名经济学家，也是数据专家。
I'm an economist and data expert.
我是佩里·威尔逊。
And I'm Perry Wilson.
我是一名医生。
I'm a medical doctor.
这是我们新推出的播客《真实健康》。
And this is our new podcast, Wellness Actually.
你现在接触到的健康和养生信息多得惊人，其中不少真的很有价值。
You're getting a staggering amount of health and wellness information, and some of it is awesome.
但其中一部分其实是胡说八道。幸运的是，我们俩都懂怎么读研究论文，能告诉你哪些值得一试，哪些完全可以放心忽略。
And some of it is, well, actually bull Fortunately, we're both people who know how to read studies and can tell you what's worth trying out and what you can safely ignore.
在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客，或者你常用的任何播客平台收听《 Wellness Actually》。
Listen to Wellness Actually on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
比尔，我眼睛怎么老跳啊？
Bill, why is my eye twitching?
这会不会是更年期前期的信号？
Does this mean I'm in perimenopause?
我的手机去哪儿了？
Where's my phone?
朱莉安娜，要不我们问问真正的医生吧。
Juliana, maybe we can ask an actual human.
好。
Yes.
因为我有很多问题，我猜你也有。
Because I have questions, and I bet you do too.
比如，睡在不同的卧室正常吗？
Like, is it normal to sleep in separate bedrooms?
我们就是这么做的，但我还是想知道为啥大便是绿色的。
We do that, and I still need to know why my poop's been green.
我们请了专业人士来回答这些问题。
We've got actual people answering these exact questions.
收听比尔和朱莉安娜的播客，可以在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客，或者你常用的任何平台收听。
Listen to Bill and Juliana, the podcast, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcast.
拨打 Zone Media。
Call Zone Media.
最近怎么样？
What's up?
欢迎收听《Better Offline》，我是主持人埃德·齐特隆。
It's Better Offline, and I'm your host, Ed Zitron.
这是你本周的《Better Offline》独白。
It's your Better Offline monologue for the week.
Better Offline。
Better Offline.
各位，过去几个月实在熬得太久，这周我基本全休了，就是为了缓一缓——毕竟过去几个月我写了十万到二十万字，还没算上我那本2027年要出的新书《硅谷憎恨者指南》。
Folks, it's been a long few months and I've taken the vast majority of this week off to recover after writing about 100,000, 200,000 words in the last few months, not even including my upcoming book, The Haters Guide to Silicon Valley coming out in 2027.
如果你想支持我的工作，现在正好有个为期一周的促销，年度付费通讯直减十美元，终身有效。
If you wanna support my work, I'm currently doing a week long sale for the premium newsletter, $10 off the annual rate for life.
详情在简介里。
That'll be in the notes.
如果你觉得值得支持，那就去订一个吧。
Please do, if you feel like supporting me, do that.
现在，通讯和播客已经是我主要的收入来源了。
Newsletter and the podcast are now my my principal source of income.
真的成了。
It's happened.
微笑的时代，正式开始了。
The era of smiles has begun.
欢迎加入我，每周都能收到丰富的文字内容，除了这一周，我正在休假。
Join me and receive the bounties of words every week except this one as I'm taking the week off.
那我们开始吧，我想先说说听众们能怎么帮我。
So let's begin and I wanted to start by saying how you the listener might help me.
首先，我的目标公司是 Ezitron。
First of all, my signal is Ezitron.
76号。
76.
我现在最需要的是 Anthropix S1 的相关资料，尤其是它在云端的开支和财务状况，如果你能弄到亚马逊云或者谷歌云上关于这家公司花销的任何数据，那就太好了。
The things I'm looking for right now that would help me are Anthropix S1 or any and all documentation of its cloud spend and financial condition especially if you can get me something from Amazon Web Services or Google Cloud that shows me how much this company is spending.
这些信息对我帮助巨大。
That'd be very, very helpful to me.
任何未公开的大型科技公司 AI 收入数据，OpenAI、Anthropic、Perplexity 或其他主要 AI 初创公司的云支出信息，当然还有你能弄到的任何 AI 初创公司的财务资料，我都非常需要。
As would any and all information about the AI revenues of any major tech company that aren't public knowledge, and any and all information about the cloud spend of OpenAI, Anthropic, Perplexity, or any other major AI startup, and of course, of the financials of any AI startup you can get me.
任何企业使用的 token 开支信息，也请一并提供。
The same goes for token spend at any corporation.
请用Signal，拍下任何文件的图片，别发PDF给我。
Please use Signal, please take photos of any documents, do not send me PDFs.
为了你我的安全，别发任何文件给我。
Do not send me documents for your safety and for mine.
拜托，拜托，千万别发我已经公开见过的东西。
And please, please, please, do not send me stuff that's already public.
我不是在责怪你。
This isn't because I'm I'm chiding you.
我只是说，大家一激动就想帮忙，结果发来一些早就公开的信息。
I'm just saying people get excited and that they wanna help, and they send me stuff that's already out there.
这些我大概早就看过了。
I've I've probably already seen it.
我这个人有点疯魔。
I'm a freak.
我整天都在盯着这些东西。
I'm looking at this stuff all day.
好了，各位。
Alright, folks.
咱们直接进入正题吧。
Let's roll to the actual monologue.
这周早些时候，我发了一篇一万五千字的文章，叫《OpenAI泡沫》。
So earlier in the week, I put out a 15,000 word piece called the OpenAI bubble.
这是一份详尽的指南，讲的是OpenAI如何成为整个AI泡沫的根源、推手和借口，以及一旦它崩盘，整个体系会怎样全面瓦解。
A massive guide to how OpenAI is the cause, enabler, and justification for the entire AI bubble writ large, and how everything kind of collapses when it dies.
我写这篇东西，是因为过去一年里，很多人总说这不是AI泡沫，而是OpenAI泡沫，用这个说法来打发那些担心OpenAI一倒、其他东西也会跟着完蛋的人。
I wrote it because I've heard a lot of people say it's an OpenAI bubble, not an AI bubble over the last year as a way of waving off potential detractors suggesting that OpenAI could collapse and everything else would be left behind and fine.
如果你真这么想，那你自己就活在泡沫里了，这种活法太荒唐了。
You're living in a bubble yourself if you think this way, that's a crazy way to live one's life.
还有，请别再给我发邮件谈救助的事了。
And please please please stop emailing me about the bailout.
我早就把那些呼吁救助的人说清楚了。
I've already gone over the summonters.
不过说到底，OpenAI 是目前最大的 AI 算力消费者，它在各大云服务商和新兴云平台那里还剩下超过八千亿美元的履约义务——这些平台就是专门出租 AI 显卡、本质上只为把英伟达的钱流出去而存在的，而且 OpenAI 很可能还占了博通和英伟达未来收入的上千亿美元。
Anyway, in truth, OpenAI is the largest consumer of AI compute, accounts for over $800,000,000,000 of remaining performance obligations across hyperscalers and neo clouds, the people that rent out AI GPUs and basically just exist to funnel NVIDIA money, and likely over $100,000,000,000 of the future revenues of Broadcom and NVIDIA themselves.
我在那篇文章里详细讲过，但今天我还是想再简单捋一捋。
I go into detail about it in the piece but I kinda wanted to go over it a little today in today's monologue too.
OpenAI 对软银和甲骨文来说，都是一个实实在在的风险。
OpenAI is also a material risk to both SoftBank and Oracle.
如果 OpenAI 没法上市，软银马上就会面临严重的流动性危机。
If OpenAI can't go public, SoftBank is going to face a massive liquidity crisis.
它有将近四千六百亿美元的债务在未来十二个月内到期，要么得再融资，要么就得直接还钱。
It has $45,900,000,000 in debt that matures within the next twelve months and they'll either have to refinance it or pay it.
但问题在于，现在要再融资会难得多，因为它早就把手里持有的 T-Mobile 和英伟达的优质股票抛得差不多了，现在又快把能用的英伟达股权抵押额度用到极限了——它是在 2023 年左右花三千二百亿美元买下这家芯片公司的，当时上市估值是五千亿美元，可现在这些持股的市值早就涨到几千亿美元了。
Except that's going be much more difficult because they've jettisoned most of its valuable stocks in T Mobile and Nvidia, all while pushing up against the limits of what it can borrow against its holdings in the chipmaker arm, which it bought I think back in 2023 for $32,000,000,000 it went public at $50,000,000,000 but the holdings are worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
不过这确实是个大问题，我待会儿再说。
Except that's kind of a problem, which I'll get to in a minute.
但软银其实不可能真正破产，这不代表 OpenAI 失败就没事——一旦真出事，软银会陷入比互联网泡沫更严重的危机，比当年孙正义把所有赌注押在 Geocities 还要惨，甚至比 2022 到 2023 年愿景基金亏掉三千二百亿美元那会儿还要糟，那时候软银手里还有不少其他优质股票，也能轻松借到钱。
But SoftBank will never truly go bankrupt, that doesn't mean it's not a problem if OpenAI fails, because it would be put in a historic crisis, one worse than the .com bubble where Masayoshi's done a bet everything in Geocities, and even the horrors of 2022 and 2023 when the Vision Fund had losses of $32,000,000,000 Back then SoftBank had plenty of other valuable stock and ways to raise debt.
他们曾经持有阿里巴巴的股票，还有Betfair和其他一些资产。
They had the Alibaba stock, they had their holdings in Betfair and other things like that.
但这些现在大多都没了，而且标普全球已经将他们的前景评级下调至负面，这意味着他们可能在未来进一步下调其信用评级。
Except most of that is gone now, and now S and P Global has downgraded its outlook to negative, which means they think they might actually downgrade its credit in the future.
为了明确一点，标普明确指出，这么做的原因就是OpenAI。
And just to be clear, they specify that the reason that S and P did that was OpenAI.
他们就是这么说的。
They said the words.
他们明明白白地把责任归到了OpenAI头上。
They literally said it was the case.
可现在，软银到底还能怎么办？
Except now what the hell is SoftBank meant to do?
除了ARM的股票，他们几乎没什么别的能拿得出手了。
It doesn't have anything else to flog really other than its ARM stock.
问题是，软银是全球最大的ARM股票持有者，要是大量抛售，肯定会引发市场恐慌。
And the problem there is that SoftBank is the largest holder of ARM stock in the world, which makes it difficult for it to liquidate too much without spooking the market.
你可以这么想，如果一家股票的最大持有者说，‘我要开始卖股票来套现’，那这件事就不再关乎股票本身，而是这家公司正在甩卖资产。
Think of it like this, if the largest holder of a stock says, I'm just going to start selling it off for liquidity', it officially stops being about the stock in question but the company is selling it.
ARM的价值现在变成了一个赌注——看软银有没有能力付得起自己的账单。
The value of ARM will turn into a bet on whether SoftBank can afford to pay its own bills.
它已经用这支股票做了不少保证金贷款，而再想借新钱会更难，原因就在这儿。
It's already taken out a bunch of margin loans on the stock and further loans will be difficult to raise for the very same reason.
虽然它很可能会得到日本央行和其他本地金融机构的救助，但对孙正义的儿子来说，现在可能是最危险的时刻。
While it would be likely rescued by the Bank of Japan and other local financial institutions, there has never been a more dangerous time for Masayoshi's son.
去看看我的《软银避坑指南》，我知道这是付费内容，但现在正好有优惠，价格超值，我不再模仿特朗普了，咱们来聊聊他的朋友甲骨文。
Check out my Haters Guide to SoftBank, I know it's a premium thing but there's a deal going on, it's a beautiful deal, I'll stop doing the Trump impression now, and get on to one of his friends, Oracle.
对甲骨文来说，它的整个未来都押在OpenAI能不能每年付它700亿美元收入上，而这又取决于甲骨文能否在未来两三年内建成大约71亿瓦的数据中心容量。
Now in Oracle's case its entire future rides on OpenAI's ability to pay it about 70,000,000,000 a year in annual revenue, and that rides on Oracle's ability to build about 7.1 gigawatts or so of data center capacity in in the next two or three years.
我不是在开玩笑。
I'm not I'm not kidding.
他们真的就得这么做才行。
It's genuinely that's that's what they need to do.
甲骨文和OpenAI签了一份3000亿美元的合同，原定2026年6月1日生效，这笔收入来自甲骨文为Clammy Sammy建造的Stargate数据中心。
Oracle and OpenAI have a $300,000,000,000 contract that's meant to have started on 06/01/2026, with said revenue coming from the Stargate data centers that Oracle is building for Clammy Sammy.
没错，阿尔特曼先生，就是那个‘Clamual’。
That's right, mister Altman, clamual.
我们不喜欢他。
We don't like him.
问题是，71亿瓦的算力需要建成，但目前实际投入的还不到4亿瓦。
The problem, of course, is that 7.1 gigawatts of capacity needs to be built and barely 400 megawatts of it actually exist.
这还是在Stargate阿比林项目上，这个项目2024年年中才破土动工，原计划去年年底或几周前就该完工了。
And that's in Stargate Abilene, a project that broke ground in the middle of twenty twenty four and was meant to be done either the end of last year or a couple of weeks ago.
我从甲骨文内部听到的消息是，他们一直在解雇那些真正懂行的人。
And everything I hear from the people inside Oracle is that they keep firing all the people who know how the fucking business works.
这对他们来说太糟糕了。
It's a terrible thing for them.
还有，甲骨文在年度报告里明明白白警告过：OpenAI可能付钱，也可能不付，如果付不了，他们连GPU的租赁业务都可能做不了。
Oh, and another thing is that Oracle literally warned in its annual report that it may or may not get paid by OpenAI and that said non payment would potentially also mean that it couldn't lease the GPU capacity to anyone else.
意思是，根本没人买得起，就算真卖出去了，也得亏得血本无归。
As in, no one else really existed could buy it, and if they did manage to sell it to them, would be at a massive loss.
这样好吗？
Is that good?
还有，标普全球也下调了甲骨文的评级，这事儿靠谱吗？
Also, me, is it good that S and P Global also downgraded Oracle?
就差一点点就到垃圾级了。
Just one step above junk grade.
目前来看，它的信用评级离投资级都还差得远。
They're barely investment grade credit wise for now.
说不定马上就要跌到天使级了。
Falling Angel's status on incoming maybe.
这个我待会儿再详细说。
I'll explain what that means in another monologue.
你其实也不在乎。
You don't really care.
咱们还是说点有趣的事吧。
Let's get to the funny stuff though.
甲骨文的董事长拉里·埃里森，现在的CEO其实是两个像憨豆先生一样的人。
Larry Ellison, Chairman of Oracle, CEO is currently two different Mr Bean type characters.
他还用自己持有的11.6亿股甲骨文股票中的3.46亿股，做了大约210亿美元的保证金贷款——纯属个人用途，这点要说明白。
He has also used $346,000,000 of his 1,160,000,000 Oracle shares for an estimated $21,000,000,000 of margin loans, personal ones just to be clear.
除此之外，他手头大概有100亿美元现金，还有150亿美元的特斯拉股票。
Otherwise he has about $10,000,000,000 in cash and $15,000,000,000 in Tesla shares.
你为啥关心这个？
Why do you care about that?
因为这事很关键：他得在9月30日前凑出200亿美元真金白银，才能搞定派拉蒙和华纳兄弟这笔交易，不然每季度要被罚5061亿美元。
Well this is material because he also has to conjure up about $20,000,000,000 in cash, actual cash, to push through the Paramount Warner Brothers deal by September 30, otherwise he gets fined about $506,100,000,000 dollars a quarter.
不管这交易最后成不成、会不会被拦下，他都得再拿甲骨文股票做更多保证金贷款。而股票要是跌得厉害，想贷到款可就难了。
And to do so, regardless of whether it happens, whether it's stopped by then or whether it's meant to go through, he's likely going to have to take out further margin loans on his Oracle stock and depending on how said stock is doing, getting that loan might be quite problematic.
我刚说了‘难’，不过我还是接着说吧。
I think I just said problematic, but I'm just gonna keep on going.
做生意却不考虑做播客？
Run a business and not thinking about podcasting?
再好好想想吧。
Think again.
听播客的美国人比听Spotify和Pandora广告版音乐的还多。
More Americans listen to podcasts than ad supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora.
作为头号播客平台，iHeart的规模是第二名和第三名加起来的两倍。
And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined.
不管你的客户听什么，你的信息都能传到他们耳边。
So whatever your customers listen to, they'll hear your message.
而且，只有iHeart能把你的内容延伸到广播电台的听众群体。
Plus, only iHeart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio.
你觉得播客能帮到你的生意吗？
Think podcasting can help your business?
那就选iHeart。
Think iHeart.
流媒体、广播和播客。
Streaming, radio, and podcasting.
欢迎访问 iheartadvertising.com，我们为您详细介绍。
Let us show you at iheartadvertising.com.
网址是 iheartadvertising.com。
That's iheartadvertising.com.
我们都经历过这样的时刻。
We've all been there.
我们都走过那些天翻地覆的阶段。
We've had seasons that have shaken everything.
问题是，当动荡过去之后，什么还能留下来？
The question is, what remains when the shaking stops?
你好。
Hi.
我是加里·瓦伦西阿诺。
I'm Gary Valensciano.
在我的播客《Unshaken with Gary Vee》里，我会邀请一些了不起的人，聊聊那些差点击垮他们的低谷，以及那些把他们推向高峰的黑暗时刻。
And on my podcast, Unshaken with Gary Vee, I sit down with amazing personalities and we talk about the seasons that nearly broke them, the lows that carried them to their highs.
可以在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客，或者你常用的任何播客平台收听《Unshaken with Gary Vee》。
Listen to Unshaken with Gary Vee on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
我是迈克尔·拉帕波特，我的播客《I Am Rapaport Stereo》绝对独一无二。
This is Michael Rapaport, and my podcast, the I am Rapaport stereo podcast, is unlike anyone you've ever heard.
这档节目啥都有，像一档综合秀。
We're a variety show.
如果你喜欢听强烈又幽默的观点，关于体育、娱乐、政治、流行文化，还有任何吸引我的话题，现在就订阅吧。
And if you're looking for strong opinions, funny opinions about sports, entertainment, politics, pop culture, and whatever else catches my attention, then subscribe now.
这个叫贾法尔·杰克逊的小伙子，演得不输拉米·马雷克演弗雷迪·默丘里，也不输蒂莫西·柴勒梅德演鲍勃·迪伦。
This kid Jafar Jackson is as good as Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury, and it's as good as Timothy Chamalet as Bob Dylan.
我说这话是出于对这两位演员的敬意和喜爱。
And I say that with love and respect for both of those actors.
我不太清楚奥斯卡到底会颁多少个提名。
And I don't know how many Oscar nominations they give out.
我不确定最佳男主角是五个还是六个提名名额。
I don't if it's five, six for best actor.
这孩子贾法尔·杰克逊演迈克尔·杰克逊，绝对、百分之百该拿个提名。
A 150% this kid Jafar Jackson should absolutely positively get nominated for his portrayal as Michael Jackson.
在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客，或者你常用的任何播客平台，都能收听《I Am Rapaport》。
Listen to I am Rapaport on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
《I Am Rapaport》播客。
I am Rapaport Podcast.
我是艾米莉·奥斯特。
I'm Emily Oster.
我是一名经济学家，也是数据专家。
I'm an economist and data expert.
我是佩里·威尔逊。
And I'm Perry Wilson.
我是一名医生。
I'm a medical doctor.
这是我们的新播客《真实健康》。
And this is our new podcast, Wellness Actually.
现在你每天接触到的健康和养生信息多得惊人，其中不少确实很有价值。
Because you're getting a staggering amount of health and wellness information nowadays, and some of it is awesome.
但也有一部分，说实话，纯属胡扯。幸运的是，我们俩都懂怎么读研究、分析数据，能告诉你哪些值得一试，哪些完全可以放心忽略。
And some of it is, well, actually bull Fortunately, we're both people who know how to read studies, parse data, and can tell you what's worth trying out and what you can safely ignore.
每期节目，我们都会聊聊本周的健康新闻，再深入探讨一个被误解的健康话题，比如
Each episode, we tackle the health news of the week and then take a deeper dive into a misunderstood health and wellness topic like
肽类到底怎么回事？
What's the deal with peptides?
GLP-1到底怎么回事？
What's the deal with GLP-one?
肌酸到底怎么回事？
What's the deal with creatine?
拔罐到底怎么回事？
What's the deal with cupping?
睡眠到底怎么回事？
What's the deal with sleep?
每周来听我们一次，让脑子清醒一下。
So join us for a weekly dose of sanity.
这可能是医生最想让你听的。
It might actually be just what the doctor
或者经济学家的建议。
Or the economist.
就是这样。
Ordered.
在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客，或者你常用的播客平台收听《Wellness Actually》。
Listen to Wellness Actually on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
简单说，保证金贷款就是拿一部分股票当抵押，有点像房贷。
So to explain, a margin loan works by offering up a certain amount of shares as collateral, a little like a mortgage.
比如你要借一亿美元，按百分之二十五的贷款比例，就得押上大约两千五百万的股票，具体还得看股票波动有多大。
So if you were taking out a 25% loan to value loan for $1,000,000,000 you'd offer up about $250,000,000 in stock, maybe a little more depending on how volatile it is.
当这些股票的价值跌到某个临界点以下时，你就得面对所谓的追加保证金通知，要么补更多现金来填补缺口，要么更可能像埃里森那样，交出更多甲骨文的股票。
When the value of said stock drops below a certain amount you get forced to do something called a margin call where you are forced to either proffer up more cash to cover the shortfall or far more likely in Ellison's case, give up more Oracle stock.
埃里森现在面临的难题，和软银在ARM身上遇到的问题一模一样。
The problem that Ellison faces is the very same one that SoftBank has with ARM.
他持有甲骨文40%的股份，这意味着如果想套现，根本没法轻易出手。
He owns 40% of Oracle's shares which means that liquidating them would be very difficult.
要是他真开始卖股票，市场立马就会惊呼：天哪，他是不是要把持有的甲骨文40%股份全清仓了？
If he started selling them off, the market would say, oh Christ, is he going to sell his 40 percent holdings in Oracle?
快卖啊，全卖了！PIS指数要崩了！
Sell, sell it all, the PIS index is crashing.
更糟的是，他还把之前提到的那些甲骨文股票，总共超过五百亿美元作为了抵押。
And to make matters worse he has collateralized over $50,000,000,000 worth of Oracle shares, the ones I mentioned earlier.
这意味着一旦甲骨文股价跌到——比如说，六十美元以下，他就陷入恶性循环：要么不断交出更多股票来补仓，要么更惨，被迫抛售股票来维持局面。
Which means that if Oracle's stock drops below say, I don't know, dollars 60 a share, he will be put in a vicious cycle where he'll either have to hand over more and more shares to cover the shortfall or worse still have to sell them to keep up.
喂。
Hey.
嘿。
Hey.
别笑了。
Stop laughing.
别闹了。
Stop it.
别笑了。
Stop laughing.
埃里森先生真的遇到麻烦了。
Mister Ellison is in real trouble.
拉里·埃里森可能要栽大跟头了。
Larry Ellison could be in a real pickle.
别闹了。
Stop it.
我刚逗你玩的。
I just kidding.
去他的拉里·埃里森。
Fuck Larry Ellison.
再说，最糟糕的是，即使OpenAI不垮，这事也照样发生。
Anyway, the worst part is that OpenAI doesn't even have to collapse for this to happen.
AI泡沫根本不是建立在任何人的实际收入、生产力或投资回报上。
The AI bubble isn't based on anyone's actual revenues, productivity, or ROI.
没有任何一家超大规模云服务商会单独报告他们的AI收入。
No hyperscaler actually reports their AI revenues.
甲骨文倒是把AI收入打包在OCI——他们的基础设施板块里。
Oracle kind of bundles them within OCI, their infrastructure bucket.
除了OpenAI和Anthropic，整个行业的实际收入其实非常低。
And outside of OpenAI and Anthropic, the industry is actually incredibly small revenue wise.
但声音大得要命，烦人得很。
Very loud and annoying though.
市场把资本开支泡沫——也就是购买GPU和数据中心配套设备——误当成一个繁荣的AI产业，说白了，微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta和甲骨文当前的AI概念股价上涨，全靠感觉和狂热撑着。
The markets have conflated a CapEx bubble as in buying GPUs and the surrounding gear for data centers with a thriving AI industry which is a nice way of saying that the current slate of prices for Microsoft, Google, Amazon Meta and Oracle and their current AI focused bumps are based on Vibes and Mania.
感觉这东西也会崩。
Vibes can break.
狂热总会退潮。
Mania subsides.
只要市场开始相信，OpenAI不会给甲骨文付款，股价就会立刻被抛售。
All it takes for things to go pear shaped is for the market to believe, to become convinced that Oracle won't get paid by OpenAI for them to start dumping the stock.
他们只需要相信，所有这些资本支出、这些巨额负现金流，全都是白搭。
All they have to believe is that all of that CapEx, all of that negative negative cash flow is just for nothing.
钱花在了一个要么不存在、要么根本付不起数据中心费用的公司身上。
It's for a company that either won't exist or won't be able to actually afford all of that data center capacity.
每次我当着人面这么说，都觉得我自己疯了。
Every time I say this out loud, I feel crazy.
但关于甲骨文最大的误解，是以为它是个健康盈利的公司，AI只是给它添了点额外的彩头。
The biggest myth though about Oracle is that it's this healthy profitable business and that this AI thing is just yet more good stuff that they've added on top.
实际上，除了出租AI显卡之外，其他所有业务板块要么已经停滞，要么正在下滑，甲骨文的未来完全押在了它和英伟达、黄仁勋的FinDOM合作关系上。
When in fact, every other business segment other than renting out AI GPUs is either plateaued or in active decline, meaning that Oracle's entire future rides and whether it can monetize its FinDOM relationship with NVIDIA and Jensen Huang.
说实话，甲骨文现在的故事简直荒谬至极。
And really, Oracle's story is fundamentally insane right now.
它为了一个客户——OpenAI，砸了三千四百亿美元以上建AI数据中心，指望OpenAI每年能给它带来七百亿美元收入，可这份合同才刚签一个月。大部分设施甚至还在打地基，而数据中心建设周期长达十八到三十六个月，到2028年之前，能建成的可能连一吉瓦都不到，甚至根本建不成。
It's spending $340,000,000,000 or more on AI data center capacity for one client, OpenAI, in the hopes that OpenAI can bring it $70,000,000,000 a year in revenue for a contract that began a month ago except most of the capacity is barely under construction and because data centers take eighteen to thirty six months to build, it's unlikely that more than a single gigawatt will be ready before the beginning of twenty twenty eight, if at all.
建设这些设施代价高昂，过去两个财季，甲骨文的现金流已经亏了两千亿美元以上，而下一个财年（今年六月才开始）还计划再花九千亿美元。
Building this capacity is costly, and Oracle's cash flow has been negative $20,000,000,000 or worse for the last two quarters, with plans to spend another $90,000,000,000 in the next fiscal year, which just begun in June.
过去六个月裁掉的两万两千人，据多方消息，都是公司运营的中坚力量。这一砍直接让业务陷入混乱，连甲骨文数据库产品的续约都出了问题——而这些数据库，才是拉里·埃里森真正的心脏所在。
The 22,000 people that it laid off in the past six months were, based on discussions with many sources, load bearing parts of its infrastructure, throwing parts of the business into active chaos and genuinely causing problems with renewals for its Oracle database products that are the cornerstone of how Larry Ellison's heart beats.
我不知道该说什么了。
I don't know what to say.
我真的不知道。
I don't know.
我就是个普通人。
I am just a guy.
为什么偏偏是我发现了这些？
Why am I the one that found this?
这事就摆在明面上。
It's sitting in broad daylight.
也许根本没人算这笔账。
Maybe people just don't do mathematics.
我真的不知道。
I don't know.
但这情况确实很糟糕。
But this is this is quite bad.
我想要说明的是，简单来说，如果我要错的话，那OpenAI到2030年每年得赚上千亿美元，而且得是真真正正地大赚，不是那种小打小闹的EBITDA盈利。
And the point I'm making though, just to simplify, is that for me to be wrong, OpenAI will have to bring in hundreds of billions of dollars a year in revenue for themselves by 2030, which will require it to become either profitable, massively profitable too, like, not just like a little bit of EBITDA profitability.
我的意思是，每年至少得赚两三千亿，或者一直不停地融资。
I mean, $20.30, $40,000,000,000 a year plus, or just continually raise money.
我说的是每年上千亿美元的规模。
I'm talking hundreds of billions of dollars a year.
而且，政府根本不可能出手救这个窟窿。
And no, no government bailout will cover the shortfall.
政府说要拿百分之五的股份。
The government's talking about 5% share.
那可是四千二百亿美元。
That'd be $42,000,000,000.
就算撑到2027年，这点钱连他们的推理成本都cover不了。
That won't even cover their fucking inference costs if they last to 2027.
这简直是个笑话。
It's a joke.
对了，就算OpenAI真能做到，甲骨文也得完成有史以来最雄心勃勃的建设工程。
Oh, and by the way, even if OpenAI does that, Oracle will have to complete the single most ambitious construction project of all time.
建够能供好几座城市用电的电力设施，在多个州兴建巨型数据中心，用极少的人手、人才和电力钢材短缺的条件下让它们全部运转起来，还得赶在合同违约前完成。
Building enough power to power multiple cities, erecting giant data centers in multiple states, make them fully operational with far less people and a shortage of both talent and the core materials like electrical grade steel, and also do so on a timeline that doesn't put it in breach of contract with OpenAI.
如果我告诉你，这种想法被当成激进派，你会不会觉得惊讶？
Would it shock you if I told you that this is considered radical thinking?
如果你听说，很多记者听了这种说法也只是耸耸肩，你会不会觉得意外？
Would you be surprised if I told you that many journalists simply shrug when you tell them this?
他们说，总会想办法解决的。
And they go, they'll work it out.
总会想办法解决的。
They'll work it out.
一切都会顺利的。
It'll all work out.
会没事的。
It'll work out.
别担心，埃德。
Don't worry about it Ed.
你疯了，埃德。
You're crazy Ed.
埃德，你为什么在我办公室外面？
Ed why are you outside my office?
你干嘛穿成一只鸭子？
Why are you dressed as a duck?
你干嘛老说我是一只衰退鸭？
Why do you keep saying I'm the deterioration duck?
嘎嘎嘎。
Quack quack quack.
市场正在崩盘。
The market's going to hell.
答案是，我正在准备一个段子，稍后再说。
And the answer is that's a bit I'm working on that I'll go to later.
不过说真的，我是在开玩笑。我得说，未来真的满是混乱和废墟，而由于媒体行业被控制，拒绝去面对那些从不切实际到荒诞不经的预测，这个世界根本还没准备好。
In any case, I am kidding and I do need to say the future really is one strewn with chaos and carcasses and I'm not sure the world is actually ready for it thanks to a captured media industry that refuses to do the messy work of reconciling with the projections that range from unrealistic to fantastical.
等到那天来临，人们会问，我们为什么没早点看到这一切？就像我之前说的，那是因为没人愿意去正视。
When the time comes, people are going to be asking why we didn't see this coming, and as I've said before, it's because nobody wanted to fucking look.
总之，一如既往，谢谢收听。
Anyway, thanks as ever for listening.
接下来几个月，事情会变得越来越有意思。
Things are gonna get real interesting over the next few months.
我刚买了一个彭博终端，这玩意儿力量强大到难以想象，我觉得它能让我做的内容上一个台阶。
I just got me a Bloomberg terminal, and it's a source of unfathomable power that I believe will take my coverage to the next level.
如果你也在用，给我发条消息吧。
If you're on there, shoot me a message.
去Ploop上给我点个赞。
Shoot me a goot on ploop.
那是我另外在用的一个社交平台。
That's another social network I'm on.
我真的非常、非常感激每天收到的那么多温暖又走心的留言和邮件。
And I really do genuinely deeply and meaningfully appreciate the many wonderful messages and emails I receive every day.
能有你们这样出色的粉丝和关注者，我实在感恩不已。
And I'm so grateful to have such incredible fans and followers.
你们每个人都太棒了。
You're all amazing.
我经常收到你们的反馈，你们真的很有想法、很聪明，对这些内容理解得特别快。
Like I hear from so many of you and you're very thoughtful and smart and you pick this stuff up very quickly.
我爱你们所有人。
I love you all.
我猜你们会回一句‘我们也爱你，主厨’。
And I assume you'll bellow we love you chef in response.
下周见。
See you next week.
大家好。
Hey, everybody.
我是塔雷卡·福斯特·布拉兹比。
I'm Tareka Foster Brasby.
大家最近怎么样？
What's up, y'all?
我是切丽尔·斯伍普斯。
I'm your girl, Cheryl Swoops.
每当你收听我们播客《Levels To This》的新一期，肯定能听到一些火辣的WNBA分析。
When you tune in to a new episode of our podcast Levels To This, you're definitely gonna get some spicy WNBA analysis.
但我们做的远不止篮球分析，真正重要的是我们带来的深度对话。
But we're more than just hoops, and the real conversation is what we actually bring.
看到这些女性在球场外真正挺起腰板，意识到自己就是篮球本身，真的特别棒。
It's been really, really cool seeing kinda these women just really step into their power off the court and understand that they are basketball.
对吧？
Right?
她们根本不需要谁来批准。
And they're not asking for permission.
在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客，或者你常用的任何播客平台，收听谢丽尔·斯沃普斯和塔瑞卡·福斯特·布雷比主持的《Levels To This》。
Listen to levels to this with Sheryl Swoops and Tareka Foster Bresby on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
比尔，我眼睛怎么老跳啊？
Bill, why is my eye twitching?
这会不会是更年期前期的征兆？
Does this mean I'm in perimenopause?
我手机放哪儿了？
Where's my phone?
朱莉安娜，要不我们问问真正懂行的人？
Juliana, maybe we can ask an actual human.
对。
Yes.
我有很多问题，我猜你也有。
Because I have questions, and I bet you do too.
比如，睡在不同卧室正常吗？
Like, is it normal to sleep in separate bedrooms?
我们就是这样，但我还是想知道，为什么我的大便是绿色的。
We do that, and I still need to know why my poop's been green.
我们请了专业人士来回答这些问题。
We've got actual people answering these exact questions.
收听比尔和朱莉安娜的播客，就在 iHeartRadio、Apple Podcasts，或者你常用的任何播客平台。
Listen to Bill and Juliana, the podcast, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcast.
我是艾米莉·奥斯特。
I'm Emily Oster.
我是一名经济学家，也是数据分析专家。
I'm an economist and data expert.
我是佩里·威尔逊。
And I'm Perry Wilson.
我是一名医生。
I'm a medical doctor.
这是我们新推出的播客《真实健康》。
And this is our new podcast, Wellness Actually.
你现在接触到的健康和养生信息多得惊人，其中不少确实很有价值。
You're getting a staggering amount of health and wellness information, and some of it is awesome.
但也有一部分，说实话，纯属胡扯。好在我们俩都懂怎么解读研究，能告诉你哪些值得一试，哪些完全可以放心忽略。
And some of it is, well, actually bull Fortunately, we're both people who know how to read studies and can tell you what's worth trying out and what you can safely ignore.
在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客，或者你常用的播客平台收听《真实健康》。
Listen to Wellness Actually on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
你好。
Hey.
我是诺拉·琼斯，我的播客《Playing Along》回归了，这次又带来了更多我最爱的音乐人。
It's Nora Jones, and my podcast Playing Along is back with more of my favorite musicians.
快来听听我最新一期和菲尼亚斯的对话。
Check out my newest episode with Phineas.
于是我回家后问比利，她愿不愿意来唱这首歌。
So I went home and I asked Billy if she wanted to sing it.
她一开口就把它变成了自己的风格。
She immediately made it her own thing.
你真的知道怎么让我感动得落泪，当你这样唱的时候。
You really know how to make me cry when you give me those
欢迎来录音室和我们一起玩，收听《Playing Along》，可以在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客，或者你常用的任何播客平台收听。
So come hang out with us in the studio and listen to playing along on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
这是 iHeart 播客《 Guaranteed Human》。
This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。