独白：我们生活在一个梦中，但谁是做梦的人？

这里是iHeart播客。

This is an iHeart podcast.

保证真人录制。

Guaranteed human.

你在经营生意，却没考虑过做播客？

Run a business and not thinking about podcasting?

再想想吧。

Think again.

现在听播客的美国人，比用Spotify和Pandora听广告支持流媒体音乐的人还多。

More Americans listen to podcasts than ad supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora.

作为排名第一的播客平台，iHeart的规模是第二名和第三名加起来的两倍。

And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined.

来了解一下播客如何助力你的生意。

Learn how podcasting can help your business.

拨打844844。

Call 844844

嘿，波特兰迪亚的粉丝们。

Hey, Portlandia fans.

我是凯莉·布朗斯坦和弗雷德·阿米森。

Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here.

九十年代的梦想在播客中延续。

The dream of the nineties is alive in podcast form.

我们推出了《波特兰迪亚回顾》这档全新播客，一起重温每一集，解析小品，深入探讨那些标志性角色，并揭秘幕后制作过程。

We're launching Podlandia AO Rewatch, our brand new podcast where we revisit every episode of Portlandia together, breaking down sketches, going deep on our iconic characters, and pulling back the curtain on how it all got made.

我们还会邀请那些帮助这一切成真的人——客串明星、合作者和朋友们，包括导演乔纳森·克里塞尔、市长本人凯尔·麦克拉克伦、传奇音乐人艾米·曼恩，以及更多嘉宾。

And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life, Guest stars, collaborators, and friends, including director Jonathan Kreisel, the mayor himself, Kyle McLaughlin, legendary musician Amy Mann, and many more.

凯尔在这里真是豁出去了。

Kyle is going for it here.

你不仅即兴发挥说了台词，还

You fully improvised not just words, but

还即兴唱了一首歌？我以为你们都要写首歌呢。

but a song about Well, I thought you're all gonna write a song.

我记得你，是的。

I remember you Yeah.

当时就是这么想的。

Thinking that.

听好了，

Listen

《Podlandia AEO Rewatch》在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或你收听播客的任何平台都可以找到。

to Podlandia, AEO rewatch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

大家好吗？

What's up, fam?

我是体育记者阿里·钱伯斯。

I'm sports journalist Ari Chambers.

嘿。

Hey.

大家好，怎么样？

What's up, y'all?

我是你们的姐妹，萨姆·杰伊。

It's your girl, Sam Jay.

我们是《人人都看女子体育》的主持人，这是一档来自Together和iHeart女子体育的全新播客。

And we're the host of Everyone Watches Women's Sports, a new podcast from Together and iHeart Women's Sports.

我们来聊聊最热门的头条新闻。

We're breaking down the biggest headlines.

大坂直美大放异彩。

Naomi Osaka showing out.

给你点赞，大坂。

Shout outs to you, Naomi.

那些爆火的瞬间。

The viral moments.

我最近

I've been

对卡肖恩·洛克的拳击之路特别着迷。

obsessed with KaShaun Rock's boxing journey.

她看起来状态不错。

She looks good.

她的组合拳很利落。

Her combos are swift.

还有那些在女子体育界大家都在热议的故事。

And the stories everyone's talking about across women's sport.

因为每个人都在关注女子体育。

Because everyone watches women's sports.

快来收听《每个人都在看女子体育》。

Listen to everyone watches women's sports.

在iHeartRadio应用上。

On the iHeartRadio app.

苹果播客，或者任何你收听播客的地方。

Apple Pod cast, or wherever you get your podcast.

我是尼克·塔图罗。

I'm Nick Taturo.

你可能认识我，是因为《纽约重案组》、《最长的一码》，或者斯派克·李的《黑色党徒》。

You probably know me from NYPD Blue, The Longest Yard, or Spike Lee's Black Klansman.

在我的新播客《与尼克·塔图罗一起传递快乐》里，我会给新嘉宾送披萨。

And on my new podcast, Delivering Happiness with Nick Taturo, I deliver pizza to a new guest.

我和很多人一起分享过披萨，比如赛斯·罗林斯

I've shared a slice with everyone from Seth Rollins

你拿我的腰带干什么？

What you doing with my belt?

还有比尔·伯尔。

To Bill Burr.

我觉得我还没遇到过像我这样完全疯疯癫癫的人。

I don't think I've ever met somebody so exactly out of their mind as I am.

现在，我们还有更多精彩的嘉宾要来，包括伟大的约翰·齐图罗。这叫做快乐。

And now, we even have more great guests coming up, including the great John Zituro It's called happiness.

传递快乐。

Delivering happiness.

还有更多，更多。

And many, many more.

打开你免费的iHeartRadio应用。

Open your free iHeartRadio app.

搜索“Delivering Happiness with Nick Dotturro”，现在收听。

Search delivering happiness with Nick Dotturro, and listen now.

Call Zone Media。

Call Zone Media.

大家好，欢迎收听本周的《Better Offline》独白。

Hello, and welcome to this week's Better Offline monologue.

我是主持人Ed Zitron。

I'm your host, Ed Zitron.

这周有点奇怪。

It's been a weird week.

我在7月30号周四录这期节目，目前只有微软和Meta发布了财报。

I'm recording this on Thursday, July 30, so we've only had Microsoft and Meta report earnings so far.

那我们先从Meta说起。今天Meta的股价大跌，原因是每股收益收窄——其实换个说法就是增加了——公司把今年的资本支出指引上调到了大约1350亿到1450亿美元，同时预计第三季度营收在610亿到640亿美元之间，低于市场预期。

So let's start with Meta, who saw its stock get hammered today after missing on earnings per share narrowing, by which I mean increasing by another word, its capital expenditures guidance for the year to a range of about $135,000,000,000 to 145,000,000,000 and guiding, as in projecting, dollars 61,000,000,000 to $64,000,000,000 of revenue in Q3, which was below estimates.

现金流也恶化了，降到了不到8亿美元。我得说清楚，看着这些公司这么做，真的很奇怪。

Cash flow also deteriorated to a little under $800,000,000 And I must be clear how strange it is watching these companies do this.

Meta以前简直就是印钞机。

Meta used to just print money.

他们过去有大量的自由现金流。

They used to have tons of free cash flow.

但现在这种对AI的投入，既让人怀疑，又很浪费。

But this dedication to AI is questionable and wasteful.

市场很不满，主要是因为Meta至今没有拿出任何证据，证明超过2000亿美元的资本支出给公司带来了什么好处。

And the market is pissed, mostly because Meta is yet to show any proof that spending over $200,000,000,000 in CapEx did anything for the company.

相比之下，微软的股价却在飙升，因为它在所有分析师预期上都取得了胜利，其Azure云平台在刚刚结束的财年实现了1000亿美元的营收。

Conversely, Microsoft stock is ripping because it beat on analyst estimates across the board with its Azure cloud platform hitting a $100,000,000,000 in revenue for the fiscal year that just ended.

需要说明的是，微软的2026财年是从2025年7月1日开始的。

And to be clear, Microsoft's fiscal year twenty twenty six started on 07/01/2025.

真烦人。

Annoying.

太烦人了。

So annoying.

我讨厌这样，但这就是游戏规则。

I hate it, but that's the ballgame.

好笑的是，除了那些不动脑子的分析师和被收买的商业科技媒体，他们从字里行间解读出‘AI大赚特赚’，实际上两家公司都没真正证明AI带来了回报。

What's funny is that neither company actually proved that AI is paying off outside of brainless analysts and the captured business and tech media reading between the lines and saying, oh, AI is paying off big time.

上个季度，微软公布了AI的年化收入，月收入乘以12，是370亿美元，大约每月30亿，但本季度他们干脆就不报这个数字了。

Last quarter, Microsoft disclosed its AI run rate, month times 12, which was $37,000,000,000, about $3,000,000,000 a month, and then simply chose not to report the figure at all in this quarter.

我猜是因为数字变低了，但这对那些报道财报的人来说根本无所谓。

I assume because the number was lower, but that doesn't matter to anyone covering earnings.

把AI炒作那套收起来吧。

Put the AI hype in the bag.

根本不动脑子。

No thinking.

只要数字往上涨就行，拜托了。

Only number go up, please.

根本不用动脑子。

No thinking at all.

我们这儿不能动脑子。

We cannot think here.

人们不会因为这个就去买微软的股票。

It's not like people are gonna buy Microsoft stock because of this.

我还想补充一点，似乎没人愿意讨论微软Azure最大的客户，很可能也是其增长的主要来源，就是OpenAI——一家亏损且不可持续的公司。根据我自己的报道，在2025日历年度，它占了微软云业务全年同比增长的69%。

I'll also add that nobody seems to want to discuss Microsoft Azure's largest customer and likely the vast majority of its growth is OpenAI, an unprofitable unsustainable company that accounted for, per my own reporting, 69% of all year over year growth of Microsoft's cloud in calendar year 2025.

微软的云收入每个季度都神秘地随着OpenAI在AI计算上的支出增加而增长，这一点在我读过的所有关于财报的文章里，一篇都没提到，而我他妈的真的仔细找过。

Microsoft's cloud revenue mysteriously seems to grow every quarter with OpenAI's increasing spend on AI compute, a fact mentioned in exactly zero of the stories I read about earnings, and goddamn did I look.

AI泡沫的膨胀，完全是因为媒体一直不愿意真正解释，甚至不愿意尝试去理解到底发生了什么。

The inflation of the AI bubble was only made possible by the continued unwillingness of the media to actually explain or even try to understand what's going on.

微软的增长立刻被归功于其AI投资开始回报，却忽略了OpenAI的计算支出，以及微软从7月1日起大幅提价3.65美元的事实。之所以这样，是因为迎合权贵、庆祝他们所谓的胜利，比寻求真相更省事、更有利可图。

Microsoft's growth was immediately credited to its AI bets paying off, ignoring both OpenAI's compute spend and the massive Microsoft $3.65 price increases that hit on July 1 because it's convenient and rewarding to coddle the powerful and celebrate their supposed victories rather than actually seeking the truth.

好笑的是，人们会说，OpenAI就是他们押对宝的证明。

And what's funny is people are gonna say, well, OpenAI is their bet paying off.

真的是这样吗？

Is it?

当OpenAI是一家风险投资支持的公司，而微软已经不得不往里面砸了超过130亿美元的时候，这算押对宝吗？

Is it when it's a venture capital backed company when Microsoft has had to sink over $13,000,000,000 into the company?

2025年就有报道说，那些算力是按成本价提供的？

When there were reports in 2025 that that compute was served at cost?

他们的投资里有多少是Azure积分？

How much is their investment is the Zior credits?

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

根本没人愿意去查。

Nobody bothers to look.

也没人愿意去问。

No one bothers to ask.

这些电话会议上的分析师根本不配拥有工作。

The analysts on these calls should not have jobs.

他们的存在不是为了保护投资者。

They do not exist to protect investors.

他们只是为了延续炒作周期。

They exist to perpetuate hype cycles.

这家公司实际发生的情况其实很简单。

And what's actually happening to this company is pretty simple.

作为OpenAI最大的AI计算服务提供商，只要风投资本继续向那个油腻的Sam Altman输送资金，Azure的收入增长就会持续飙升。

As OpenAI's largest provider of AI compute, Azure revenue growth will continue to spike as long as venture capital continues to funnel cash to clammy Sam Altman.

微软并没有找到什么神奇的AI赚钱捷径。

Microsoft has not found some magic AI money cheat.

它没有为Microsoft 365 Copilot订阅用户解锁什么惊人的价值，也没有什么独门秘方。

It has not unlocked incredible value for its Microsoft three sixty five Copilot subscribers, and it's not got some secret sauce.

虽然本季度365 Copilot订阅量增加了1000万，但别忘了，微软经常打折甚至免费赠送来推高这些数字。

While three sixty five Copilot subscriptions increased by 10,000,000 in this quarter, keep in mind that Microsoft regularly discounts or simply adds it for free to pump these numbers up.

在AI泡沫的这个阶段，我们已经远远不需要赤裸裸的欺骗了，因为媒体非常乐意按照公司的喜好来填补空白。

We're far past the point in the AI bubble where naked deception is necessary because the media is more than willing to keep filling in the blanks at the preference of the companies.

别忘了，就在Meta发布惨淡财报的24小时前，《华尔街日报》和《纽约时报》分别报道了马克·扎克伯格想要为所有人提供超级智能的消息。这完全是一句空话，目的只是为了给一家无关紧要的公司博取关注，掩盖它那毫无意义且浪费资源的AI布局。

Keep in mind that a mere twenty four hours before Meta's horror show earnings that The Wall Street Journal and New York Times both ran separate stories about Mark Zuckerberg wanting superintelligence for all, a vacuous statement that exists only to get an irrelevant company attention and to paper over its meaningless and wasteful AI play.

什么超级智能啊，马克？

What superintelligence, Mark?

你搞的不过是些大型语言模型罢了。

You're building fucking large language models.

谁在乎呢？

Who cares?

谁他妈在乎啊？

Who fucking cares?

这些跟模型的实际能力根本搭不上边。

None of this actually connects to what the models do.

我感觉自己都快疯了。

I feel like I'm going insane.

看看媒体对英伟达可能为OpenAI在俄亥俄州那个还停留在理论阶段的10千兆瓦数据中心，提供2500亿美元计算能力支持的报道吧。

And just just look at the coverage around NVIDIA's potential backstop of $250,000,000,000 in compute spend on the still theoretical 10 gigawatt data center in Ohio that a SoftBank subsidiary wants to build for OpenAI.

在所有报道中，我一次都没看到有人提到OpenAI根本负担不起这笔开支，债务市场对AI贷款已经越来越疲软，SP Energy之前从未建过数据中心，而且这一切在财务上完全说不通。

Not once in any of the stories did I read a single thing about how OpenAI can't afford that spend, that debt markets are becoming exhausted with AI loans, that SP Energy has never built a data center before, and that none of this makes any financial sense.

没必要。

No need.

把AI炒作收起来吧。

Put the AI hype in the bag.

别思考，只要增长。

No thinking, only growth.

数字往上走就行。

Number go up.

根本不用动脑子。

No need to think at all.

直接发稿就行了。

Just run story.

数字很大。

Numbers are big.

我们喜欢大数字。

We love number.

一次又一次，媒体要么出于对虚假客观性的错误执着，要么出于讨好权贵的绝望，辜负了投资者和公众。

Again and again and again, the media fails investors and the general public through either a misplaced attachment to fictional objectivity or a desperation to appeal to the powerful.

到底是哪种原因其实不重要，因为结果都一样——制造出一种这一切都可行的假象，而这种假象只对权贵有利。

It doesn't really matter which one is true because they both have the same effect, creating the appearance that any of this is possible in a way that only benefits the rich and powerful.

经营企业，却没想过做播客？

Run a business and not thinking about podcasting?

再想想吧。

Think again.

现在听播客的美国人比用Spotify和Pandora听广告支持的流媒体音乐的人还多。

More Americans listen to podcasts than ad supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora.

作为排名第一的播客平台，iHeart的规模是第二和第三名加起来的两倍。

And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined.

所以无论你的客户听什么，他们都会听到你的信息。

So whatever your customers listen to, they'll hear your message.

而且，只有iHeart能把你的信息扩展到广播电台的听众那里。

Plus, only iHeart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio.

觉得播客能帮到你的生意吗？

Think podcasting can help your business?

那就想想iHeart。

Think iHeart.

流媒体、广播和播客。

Streaming, radio, and podcasting.

拨打844844开始吧。

Call 844844 to get started.

就是844844。

That's 844844

大家好，朋友们？

What's up, fam?

我是体育记者阿里·钱伯斯。

I'm sports journalist Ari Chambers.

嘿。

Hey.

大家好，怎么样？

What's up, y'all?

我是你们的姐妹，萨姆·杰伊。

It's your girl, Sam Jay.

我们是《人人都看女子体育》的主持人，这是一个由Together和iHeart女子体育联合推出的新播客。

And we're the host of everyone watches women's sports, a new podcast from Together and iHeart women's sports.

因为说实话。

Because let's be real.

最近女子体育给我们提供了太多值得聊的话题。

Women's sports is giving us way too much to talk about these days.

凯尔西·芬勒，她成为了首位从加利福尼亚独自划船到夏威夷的女性。

So Kelsey Finler, she became the first female solo rower to go from California to Hawaii.

我第一个想法就是，那个，零食怎么样？

My first thought is just, like, what's up with the snacks?

比如，我们吃什么？

Like, what are we what are we eating?

精彩瞬间、宿敌对决、新星崛起，还有那些刷爆你社交媒体的时刻。

The highlights, the rivalries, the breakout stars, the moments that take over your entire timeline.

还有那些从比赛开始就聊起来，然后能持续一整周的对话。

And the conversations that start during the game and somehow keep going all week.

每周我们都会深入分析女子体育界最重大的新闻。

Every week, we're breaking down the biggest stories across women's sports.

大坂直美大放异彩。

Naomi Osaka showing out.

她击败了萨巴伦卡。

She beat Sabalinka.

向你致敬，大坂。

Shout outs to you, Naomi.

给你点赞，娜奥米。

You get the palm, Naomi.

你值得这个

You get the

点赞。

palm for that.

因为我们不只是对发生了什么感兴趣。

Because we're not just interested in what happened.

我们更想知道为什么大家都在讨论这件事。

We're interested in why everyone's talking about it.

因为每个人都在看女子体育。

Because everyone watches women's sports.

听着，每个人都在看女子体育。

Listen to everyone watches women's sports.

来自iHeartRadio应用。

From the iHeartRadio app.

在苹果播客或者你收听播客的任何平台上都能找到。

Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.

嘿，《波特兰迪亚》的粉丝们。

Hey, Portlandia fans.

这里是凯莉·布朗斯坦和弗莱德·阿米森。

Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here.

你们认识我们，或者说更认识他们——托尼和坎迪斯、妮娜和兰斯、斯派克，还有，没错，那只鸡。

You know us or rather you know them, Tony and Candice, Nina and Lance, Spike, and, yes, the chicken.

这些年来我们演过很多标志性的角色，但今天，我们以真面目出现，来跟你们聊聊我们的全新播客《Podlandia AO Rewatch》。

We've played a lot of iconic characters over the years, but today, we're showing up as ourselves to tell you about Podlandia AO Rewatch, our brand new podcast.

每周我们都会从第一集开始重温《波特兰迪亚》，分析那些小品，探索我们最经典角色背后的故事，重访你们熟悉和喜爱的波特兰取景地，并敞开心扉聊聊我们的创作过程。

Each week, we'll revisit an episode of Portlandia from the very beginning, breaking down the sketches, exploring the backstories of our most iconic characters, revisiting the Portland locations you know and love, and opening up about our creative process.

这一切到底是怎么做出来的？

How did any of this get made?

我们为什么觉得那是个好主意？

Why do we think that was a good idea?

我们准备好聊聊这个了。

We're ready to talk about it.

而且我们还会邀请那些帮助这一切成真的人一起加入。

And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life.

客串明星、合作者还有朋友们，包括导演乔纳森·克雷泽尔、市长本人凯尔·麦克拉克伦、传奇音乐人艾米·曼恩，还有更多其他人。

Guest stars, collaborators, and friends, including director Jonathan Kreisel, the mayor himself, Kyle McLaughlin, legendary musician Amy Mann, and many more.

凯尔在这里真是豁出去了。

Kyle is going for it here.

你完全即兴发挥，不只是台词，还编了一首歌。

You fully improvised not just words, but a song about it.

他本来打算写——我以为你们都要写一首歌。

He was gonna write I thought you're all gonna write a song.

我记得你，对。

I remember you Yeah.

当时是那么想的。

Thinking that.

来听听Podlandia吧。

Listen to Podlandia.

哎哟。

Ayo.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或你收听播客的任何地方重温一下。

Rewatch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

我是尼克·塔图罗。

I'm Nick Taturo.

你可能从《纽约重案组》、《最长的一码》或斯派克·李的《黑色党徒》里认识我。

You probably know me from NYPD Blue, The Longest Yard, or Spike Lee's Black Klansman.

但我也来自皇后区，这意味着我懂披萨。

But I'm also from Queens, which means I know pizza.

在我的新播客《与尼克·塔图罗一起传递快乐》里，我会把王子街披萨店的披萨送到新嘉宾手上。

And on my new podcast, Delivering Happiness with Nick Taturo, I deliver pizza from Prince Street Pizza to a new guest.

你现在在送披萨吗？

Are you delivering pizza now?

然后我们会坐下来好好聊一聊。

Then we sit down for a real conversation.

我和很多人一起分享过披萨，从赛斯·罗林斯

I've shared a slice with everyone from Seth Rollins

什么

What

你在对我的腰带做什么？

are you doing with my belt?

到亚历克斯·罗德里格斯。

To Alex Rodriguez.

跟大家说一声，我们正在和一位史上最伟大的选手对话。

Just to let you people know, we're talking to one of the GOATs here.

到比尔·伯尔。

To Bill Burr.

我不

I don't

我觉得我从来没见过有人跟我一样疯得这么彻底。

think I've ever met somebody so exactly out of their mind as I am.

现在还有更多精彩的嘉宾要来，包括伟大的约翰·多图罗。

And now we even have more great guests coming up, including the great John Dotturo.

这叫做幸福。

It's called happiness.

传递幸福。

Delivering happiness.

马里亚诺·里维拉。

Mariano Rivera.

谢谢。

Thank you.

怎么了，兄弟？

What's up, brother?

还有很多很多。

And many, many more.

打开你的免费iHeartRadio应用，搜索“与尼克·塔图罗一起传递幸福”，现在就开始收听。

Open your free iHeartRadio app, search delivering happiness with Nick Taturo, and listen now.

最让人抓狂的是，现在大多数人都普遍认为我们正处于泡沫之中。

And what's incredibly frustrating is it's now for the most part commonly held consensus that we're in a bubble.

然而媒体却还在继续报道这些事，好像根本不是这么回事，对每一笔不可能的交易或明显的循环融资行为大加吹捧，对每一个奇怪的新模型发布或所谓的成就垂涎三尺，却从不真正解释这些到底有什么意义，还对山姆·奥特曼说的每一句含糊其辞的话都趋之若鹜。

Yet the media continues to write about this stuff as if that isn't the case, glazing every single impossible deal or blatant act of circular financing, salivating over every bizarre new model drop or supposed achievement without ever really explaining why it matters and gooning over every obtuse statement that Sam Altman makes.

我们并没有进入奇点时代，你这个混蛋。

We're not in the singularity, you fucking asshole.

这是因为在某种程度上，我们生活在一个完全虚构和人为制造的现实里，至少媒体领域是这样。

And this is because we live on some level in an entirely imaginary and manufactured reality, at least where the media is concerned.

超大规模云服务商在人工智能资本支出上已经花费了超过一万亿美元，却普遍拒绝给我们提供关于投资回报的硬数据。

Hyperscalers have spent over $1,000,000,000,000 in AI CapEx and have, across the board, refused to give us hard numbers about its return on investment.

OpenAI和Anthropic目前都不盈利，不可持续，未来四年还需要超过一万亿美元的融资，因为它们已经做出了超过一万亿美元的承诺，而如果没有近乎无限的风险投资，这两家公司都负担不起。

OpenAI and Anthropic are unprofitable, unsustainable, and will need over $1,000,000,000,000 of funding in the next four years because they've made over $1,000,000,000,000 of commitments that neither of them can afford without a near infinite sum of venture capital.

人工智能数据中心的建设速度慢得像蜗牛，而建设这些中心的债务成本越来越高，CoreWeave的信用利差已经达到危险水平，比美国国债高出8.3%到9.3%，远高于普通垃圾债券的平均水平，这意味着投资者对它的估值就像这家公司随时可能倒闭一样。

AI data centers are getting built at a snail's pace, and debt to build them is becoming more and more expensive, with CoreWeave hitting goat sea level credit spreads, trading from 8.3 to 9.3% above US Treasuries, which is way higher than the average jug bond, meaning that investors are valuing them like the company has a very real chance of death.

你会发现，这些利差被覆盖的事情其实没怎么被报道。

And you'll notice that this isn't really something you'll notice that the spreads are being covered.

大家都在说，这有点奇怪。

People are going, that's strange.

哦，这看起来不太妙。

Oh, that doesn't look good.

不知道是怎么回事。

Wonder what that's about.

其实呢，就是债券市场在发出警告：Weave可能会倒闭。

What it's about is that the bond market is screaming, Weave might die.

Core Weave可能会倒闭。

Core Weave might die.

如果Core Weave倒闭了，所有的新兴云服务商都得完蛋。

And if Core Weave dies, every Neo Cloud dies.

Iron也会完蛋。

Iron dies.

Nebius也完蛋。

Nebius dies.

Enscaler也完蛋。

Enscaler dies.

Lambda也完蛋。

Lambda dies.

全都得完蛋。

All of them die.

就算我可能错了——其实我没错，我对这点真的很有把握——

And even if I might be wrong, which I'm not, I really am quite confident on this.

这件事在媒体上连讨论都没人讨论，就说明根本没人关心投资者、公众，或者任何可能被牵连的人。

The fact that this is not even a discussed point across the media is a sign that no one really gives a fuck about any investors, the public, anyone who might get tied up in this.

这说明没人认真思考过这个问题，要么是极度无知，要么就是根本不在乎。

It's a sign that no one's thinking about this too hard, either through a dramatic ignorance or just a lack of giving a shit about anything.

然而，这些刺眼的警示信号最讽刺的地方在于，大多数媒体根本无法把它们推导到合乎逻辑的结局，因为那样做就等于承认我们活在一个彻底疯狂的时代。

Yet, the irony of all these blaring warning signs is that it's impossible for most of the media to take them to their logical endpoint, as doing so would mean accepting that we live in an era of outright insanity.

承认OpenAI的财务状况，就等于承认Azure最大的客户可能会倒闭，而微软收入增长的一大块不过是风投资本制造出来的假象。

To acknowledge OpenAI's financial condition is to acknowledge that the largest customer of Azure might die, and that a large chunk of Microsoft revenue growth is a fiction created by venture capital.

承认CoreWeave的现状，就等于承认这家被多数媒体捧起来的公司即将崩盘。

To acknowledge CoreWeave's condition is to acknowledge that a company pumped up by most of the media is going to explode.

承认Anthropic和OpenAI本质上是同一类公司、财务状况也差不多，就等于承认谷歌云和亚马逊云服务跟微软Azure一样被高估了。

To acknowledge that Anthropic is basically the same company and in the same financial position as OpenAI is to accept that Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services are as inflated as Microsoft Azure.

而承认这些事实，就意味着媒体必须承认他们一直无视了所有预警信号，直到最后一刻。

And to acknowledge these things would require the media to acknowledge that they ignored basically every warning sign right up until the end.

我可以想象，泡沫破裂后会有一些媒体试图假装自己早就预见到了。

I can imagine that the bubble will burst and there will be outlets that will attempt to pretend that they are ahead of it.

但那些人不知道我的笔记有多详细，也不知道我在公布它们时会多么毫不留情。

But those people don't realize how detailed my notes are and how and how unflinching I'll be in publishing them.

我会的。

I will.

我一定会这么做。

I will be doing so.

我会把一切都公布出来。

I will be publishing everything.

我知道所有吹捧这件事的人是谁。

I know everyone who pumped this up.

我知道每个人做了什么。

I know what everyone did.

我知道他们多少次无视了那些警示信号。

I know how many times they ignored the warning signs.

而且我能看到那些文章，他们就是靠这些文章帮着吹大这个泡沫的。

And I can see the articles where they helped pump this bubble up.

我不会搞得太针对个人。

And I'm I'm not going to get too personal.

我就是要发那些该死的文章。

I'm just going to publish the fucking articles.

我会直接指出来。

I'm going to point.

我会说，当时已经很明显了。

I'm going to say, it was obvious then.

你们为什么不做点什么？

Why didn't you do something?

答案就是，他们根本不在乎。

And the answer is they didn't give a shit.

要么是他们懒得去了解，要么更糟——他们明明知道却选择视而不见。

Either they didn't give a shit enough to learn or it maybe they it's much worse if they understood and they just chose to ignore it.

如果你觉得全球最大的公司不会犯这种错，那你真是太天真了。

If the answer is, well, the largest companies in the world wouldn't make such a mistake, you're just very, very gullible, I guess.

我也不知道。

I don't know.

我希望有人能从中吸取教训。

I hope that someone learns after this.

但我觉得他们不会。

I don't think they will.

真的得试试看。

Really gonna try.

我真的要好好解释一下，人们是怎么搞错的。

I'm really gonna try and explain how people got this wrong.

我觉得我一直在努力。

I feel like I've been trying.

你能听到我声音里的那种愤怒和毒辣，其实是因为——这挺有意思的。

And the the bile you can hear, the poison in my voice, comes from a place of I'm it's funny.

有人说，哦，他不过是个前公关。

People say, oh, he's just a former PR person.

他根本不懂金融。

He doesn't know anything about finance.

要成为金融专家，唯一要做的就是真正去学金融，坐下来认真学。

The only thing that it takes to become a financial expert is to become an expert in finance, to sit down and learn.

其他人呢？

Where's everyone else?

你可以随便搞。

You can fuck it.

我跟别人用的是一样的东西。

I'm using the same shit as everyone else.

你只需要学会阅读。

You just learn to read.

我不明白为什么更多人不去做。

And I don't know why more people don't do it.

但答案就是，这很费功夫，而且如果你的编辑支持AI，你根本不需要这么做。

But the answer is it's a lot of work, and you don't really have to do it when your editor's pro AI.

你想怎么来都行。

You can just do whatever you want.

我知道有些记者在听，希望我不是在说你。

I know some journalists listen, and hopefully, I'm not talking about you.

希望你确实努力过了。

Hopefully, you made the effort.

我真的希望你们做到了。

I really hope you did.

而且我得说清楚，我可能主要会针对媒体机构，而不是直接针对个人。

And I must be clear on I'll probably mostly be coming after outlets rather than people directly.

那样做太刻薄了。

That would be mean.

但同时，拜托了，当这件事爆发的时候，正在听这期节目的记者们，请你们他妈的再努力一点。

But at the same time, please God, when this explodes, journalists listening to this, please fucking try harder.

或者我也不知道。

Or I don't know.

在那之前就试着更努力一点。

Try trying harder beforehand.

如果你觉得自己在反抗，如果你真的觉得自己在反抗，那就尽管联系我，看看你是不是真的在反抗。

And if you think you are pushing back, if you truly think you are pushing back, by all means, reach out and find out if you actually are.

尽管给我发邮件，用Signal联系我，你有我的联系方式，e zitron dot seventy six，直接来问我。

By all means, email me, signal me, you have my information, e zitron dot seventy six, and ask me directly.

因为基本上，如果你还需要问这个问题，那你很可能就不是。

Because pretty much if you have to ask, you're probably not.

如果你觉得自己已经是了，那我也不确定。

And if you think you are already, I don't know.

你有没有报道过CoreWeave？

Have you talked about CoreWeave?

你有没有报道过OpenAI资金紧张的事？

Have you talked about OpenAI running out of money?

或者你报道的时候，是不是说‘对，OpenAI还没盈利’？

Or when you did so, did you talk about it saying, yeah, OpenAI isn't profitable yet.

但你知道，公司需要时间才能盈利，Uber亏了很多钱，AWS也亏了很多钱。

But, you know, companies take a while to get profitable, and Uber lost a lot of money, and AWS lost a lot of money.

如果你这么想，那你就错了。

If that's what you're thinking, you are wrong.

你错了。

You are wrong.

你这是在误导你的读者。

You are misleading your readers.

你是在误导公众，你应该为自己感到羞耻，真的。

You're misleading the general public, and you should be kind of fucking ashamed of yourself.

抱歉我现在这么不留情面，但我真的受够了看这些循环反复上演。

I'm I'm sorry to be so merciless right now, but I am sick and tired of watching these cycles.

而且我知道会有多少人被淘汰出局。

And I know how many people are gonna get washed out.

想看看真实的前车之鉴吗？去看看现在的韩国股市，还有那些关于有人想自杀的报道。

For a real preview of that, go and look at the Korean stock market right now and the many stories of people talking about fucking killing themselves.

这才是泡沫带来的真正后果。

That is the real consequence of bubbles.

这才是真实会发生的事情，而所有试图淡化这一点的人，都要为那些人的痛苦负责，最终也会波及美国、英国以及其他国家的投资者。

That is the real thing that happens, and everyone trying to downplay this is responsible for people like that suffering, and eventually American and British and other investors too.

真让人恶心。

It's sickening.

除非情况有所改变，我们都将生活在一个矛盾的媒体环境中——它一边不断抛出证据，证明这种模式在金融上不可持续，一边又鼓吹AI将是史上最伟大、最了不起的东西，直到泡沫破裂。

And until something changes, we're all going to live in a paradoxical media environment that simultaneously publishes proof point after proof point after proof point that this is financially unstable, all while saying that AI is going to be the biggest, most hugest thing in history right up until the bottom falls out.

OpenAI倒闭，数据中心被取消，CoreWeave彻底完蛋，一切分崩离析，到那时他们只会摊手说：哇，这一切是怎么发生的？

OpenAI collapses, data centers get canceled, CoreWeave shits its pants, and everything falls apart at which point they'll throw up their hands and say, wow, how did that all happen?

这一切之所以发生，是因为我们生活在一个责任往往与懦弱挂钩的时代。

It happened because we live in an era where responsibility often correlates with cowardice.

那些最有能力批评权贵的人，却选择从基本原理出发去迎合他们，帮他们构建虚幻的媒体现实，让富人更富，同时大规模坑害散户投资者。

Those who have the most power to critique the powerful choose instead to jerk their shit from first principles, helping them create fantastical mediated realities that enrich the already rich and fuck over retail investors at scale.

一想到这些，我就感到心灰意冷。

It it darkens my heart when I think about it.

这真的让我很生气，因为已经能预见会发生什么了。

It really pisses me off because you can already see what's gonna happen.

你已经能看到，那些投资市场的人会被洗劫一空。

You can already see that the people invested in the markets are gonna get washed out.

还有那些私人信贷基金，把钱砸进永远不会建成的数据中心，永远无法产生回报，最终坑害所有不幸卷入这场闹剧的保险、年金和养老金投资者，造成广泛的问题。

And then there's the widespread problems caused by all of these private credit funds sinking money into data centers that will never get built, will never provide the yield, and will fuck over anyone who is unfortunate to have insurance, annuities, or pension funds involved in this bullshit.

下周我会请埃德·埃里森回来聊聊科技公司的财报，继续努力让大家看清现实，哪怕我们正在对抗的是为权贵打造的虚假世界。

Next week, I'll have Ed Ellison back on to talk about tech earnings and continue to fight to give you as clearer picture of reality as possible, even as we battle to lead one created by and for the powerful.

感谢收听。

Thank you for listening.

嘿，《波特兰迪亚》的粉丝们。

Hey, Portlandia fans.

我是凯莉·布朗斯坦，我是弗雷德·阿米森。

Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here.

九十年代的梦想在播客里复活了。

The dream of the nineties is alive in podcast form.

我们推出了《波特兰迪亚》重看播客，这是一个全新的节目，我们会一起重温《波特兰迪亚》的每一集，拆解小品，深入探讨那些标志性角色，并揭秘这一切是如何制作出来的。

We're launching Podlandia AO Rewatch, our brand new podcast where we revisit every episode of Portlandia together, breaking down sketches, going deep on our iconic characters, and pulling back the curtain on how it all got made.

我们还会邀请那些帮助实现这一切的人，包括客串明星、合作者和朋友，比如导演乔纳森·克里塞尔、市长本人凯尔·麦克拉克伦、传奇音乐人艾米·曼恩，还有更多。

And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life, Guest stars, collaborators, and friends, including director Jonathan Kreisel, the mayor himself, Kyle McLaughlin, legendary musician Amy Mann, and many more.

凯尔在这里可是全力以赴了。

Kyle is going for it here.

你不仅即兴编了词，还唱了一首关于我的歌。

You fully improvised not just words, but a song about I

我以为你们都要写首歌呢。

thought you're all gonna write a song.

我记得你，是的。

I remember you Yeah.

当时是那么想的。

Thinking that.

听

Listen

《Podlandia AEO 回顾》节目，就在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple Podcasts 或你收听播客的任何平台。

to Podlandia, AEO rewatch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

怎么了，家人们？

What's up, fam?

我是体育记者阿里·钱伯斯。

I'm sports journalist Ari Chambers.

嘿。

Hey.

大家好，怎么样？

What's up, y'all?

我是你们的姐妹，Sam J。

It's your girl, Sam j.

我们是《人人都在看女子体育》的主持人，这是一档来自Together和iHeart女子体育的全新播客。

And we're the host of everyone watches women's sports, a new podcast from together and iHeart women's sports.

我们正在解读最热门的头条新闻。

We're breaking down the biggest headlines.

大坂直美大放异彩。

Naomi Osaka showing out.

向你致敬，大坂。

Shout outs to you, Naomi.

那些爆火的瞬间。

The viral moments.

我最近迷上了洛克的拳击之路。

I've been obsessed with Rock's boxing journey.

她状态不错。

She looks good.

她的组合拳很利落。

Her combos are swift.

还有那些在女子体育圈里大家都在热议的故事。

And the stories everyone's talking about across women's sport.

因为每个人都在关注女子体育。

Because everyone watches women's sports.

快来收听《每个人都在关注女子体育》。

Listen to everyone watches women's sports.

在iHeartRadio应用上。

On the iHeartRadio app.

苹果播客或者你收听播客的任何平台。

Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.