AI泡沫下的隐藏衰退，对话保罗·凯德罗斯基

他们还会继续融资，靠什么来融资呢？

They are going to keep raising them out of what?

这会导致什么结果呢？

How like, what does what does that lead to?

这种资产负债表衰退到底是什么？

What is this balance sheet recession?

实际上会发生的是，先暂时不谈那些投资级别较低的前景，比如Core Weave和其他公司。

So what happens is and leaving aside for a second some of the more, how shall I say, less investment grade prospects out there, the Core Weaves and others.

因为他们面临的是另一个问题，那就是当他们试图展期债务时，未来五年的条件可能会迫使他们陷入某种破产，这很常见。

Because they're they face a different a different problem, which is as they try to roll over their debt, it may come at on terms over the next five years that force that force them into some species of insolvency, and that's fairly typical.

但假设你是一家超大规模企业，是那些不存在破产风险的大公司之一。

But let's say you're a hyperscaler of some of the largest companies out there that don't face solvency risk.

他们不太可能倒闭。

They're not gonna likely go broke.

他们未来十年要做的是清理资产负债表，因为他们刚从市场上负债最少的公司变成了现在这样。

What they're gonna spend the next decade doing is cleaning up their balance sheet because they just went from some of the least indebted companies in the market.

科技公司历史上长期和短期债务水平都很低，但现在却变成了经济中负债最重的公司之一。我们看到它们把现金流都吸收掉了，有些公司甚至越来越接近信用评级被下调的边缘。

Tech historically had very low levels of long term and short term debt to some of the most indebted companies in the economy, and we see this as they as they sort of soak up all their cash flow and sort of in the case of some of these guys increasingly teeter on the edge of having their credits rating downgraded.

所以资产负债表衰退的意思就是，我基本上得把自己置于一种债务重组的境地，然后说，我接下来十年要把这些债务从资产负债表上清掉，因为我不需要了，也不想再留着它们，因为未来不再需要这些债务来维持运营，而且我因为背负着巨额债务而受到惩罚。

And so what a balance sheet recession means is essentially, I'm having to put myself into a kind of like, a debt workout and say, I'm gonna spend the next ten years getting all this debt off my balance sheet again because it doesn't need I don't want to have it there anymore because it's no longer required for, you know, ongoing purposes because I'm not spending that heavily in future, and I'm being punished for it because I have this huge debt obligation.

所以想想后果吧。

So think about the consequences.

你不再花钱去增长。

You're not spending on growth.

你不再花钱在员工身上，而是试图解除所有这些债务，把它们从资产负债表上清掉。

You're not spending on employees, and you're trying to unwind all this debt and get it off your balance sheet.

所以资产负债表衰退就是一种重组过程，负债累累的公司，不管利率如何，都继续努力降低杠杆，把债务从资产负债表上清掉。

So a balance sheet is recession is a workout where heavily indebted companies, irregardless of interest rates, continue to try and get the get themselves less leverage, get the debt off their balance sheets.

所以问题当然是，这将会发生在招聘已经面临其他压力的时候，你知道，人工智能在边际上也有影响。

And so the problem is, of course, this is gonna come at a time when there's already other pressures on hiring, you know, the the AI effects at the margin.

所以对招聘的整体影响会更加显著，因为公司会完全专注于去杠杆化。

So the the effects overall on hiring will be even more dramatic because companies are be focused entirely on deleveraging.

所以，就在他们寻找机会用AI来减少人手的同时。

So at the same time as they're looking for opportunities to use AI to have with fewer people around.

所以，未来五年这真的会带来很大的影响，而且大家真的不太明白，我们其实正处在类似日本那种时刻的边缘，很可能出现资产负债表衰退，因为人们对通胀的成因以及利率会带来的影响存在很深的误解，而且我们实际上正处在一个被AI热潮掩盖的通缩时刻。

So this will be really consequential over the next five years, and it's really not well understood that we kinda sit on the edge of a of a Japan moment in terms of the likelihood of a balance sheet recession given that there's this really profound misunderstanding of what the causes are of inflation in the economy and what's what the effect that rates are gonna have, and we're actually sitting in a kind of deflationary moment masked by what's happening in AI.

那这对普通人来说会有什么影响？

And how does that manifest regular people?

所以对普通人来说，你应该预期的是，在未来一年左右，我们会开始看到越来越多的迹象表明经济比人们预期的要弱得多。

So for regular people, the your expectation should be that over the next, say, over the next year or so, we'll start seeing increasing signs that the economy is much weaker than people expect.

因此，我们很可能会进入一个相对较长的衰退期，在这样一个时刻之后，这是不可避免的。

And as a result, we'll be probably be heading into a a relatively longer recession, which is inevitable after a moment like this.

一个比人们预期更长的衰退，再加上一些政策失误，很容易演变成通常所说的萧条。

A longer recession that people expect that with a few policy policy errors could easily be something on par with what often is called a depression.

所以，衰退演变成萧条，这意味着持续多年，而且对公司来说影响深远，因为它们在努力偿还债务的过程中可能会破产。

So recession that turns into a depression, which means multiyear and really consequential in terms of companies and themselves becoming insolvent as they try to work off debt.

所以问题当然在于，通常在这种情况下，政府会介入，用凯恩斯式的方式，试图用增加财政支出来替代失去的消费支出。

So the problem, of course, is is normally when that happens, the government steps in and tries to in a Keynesian way and tries to replace the lost consumer spending with increased fiscal spending.

而且问题在于，本周国际货币基金组织发布了一份重要报告，显示全球大多数国家基本上已经用尽了财政刺激手段，因为过去十五年里我们已经经历了好几轮这样的周期。

And the problem, of course, is is that most and there was a great IMF report out this week showing that most countries around the world are basically all fiscal stimulus out because we've gone through multiple episodes over the last fifteen years.

所以，当我们接近这个不可避免的时刻时，已经没有太多余力去拯救自己的经济了。

And so there isn't a lot of headroom anymore to bail out your own economies as we, you know, sort of approach this inevitable moment.

所以，消费者应该预期的是，所谓的“伯南克看跌期权”，也就是“本会救我们”的这种想法，然后是“格林斯潘看跌期权”，而不是……

So your expectation is the consumer should be that the the so called, you know, you could call it the Bernanke put, this idea that Ben will save us, and then it was the Greenspan part as opposed to the

而这种可能性根本不存在。

And that just isn't a possible hit.

多年来在这里根本不可能。

That for years possible here.

而且特别是因为财政政策越来越难以实施，因为全球主要主权国家的债务负担太重了。

And and in particular because fiscal policy is being increasingly rendered impossible because of the indebtedness of major sovereigns around the world.

而货币政策利率，正如我们一直在讨论的，由于当前形势的性质，几乎起不到什么作用。

And monetary policy rates, as we've been discussing, is is almost impotent because of the nature of what's going on.

所以，你面临的是双重打击的问题。

So you have this double whammy problem.

所以，我觉得你的想法有一点我想反驳，那就是我们还没在生产力上看到AI的成果。

So it's just so there'll be I I feel like there's one thing with your your idea here that I'm pushing back on, which is we haven't seen the AI side actually in productivity.

所以感觉就是，所有东西都会变得更贵，更多人会被裁员，然后，对。

So it just kinda feels like everything will get more expensive, more people will get laid off, and then Yeah.

什么都不会发生。

Nothing will happen.

就像，并不是说有什么

Like, it's not like there's

哦，不。

Oh, no.

不。

No.

用AI来替代他们。

This Replacing them with AI.

所以，你有选项A和选项B，两个都不好。

So it's it's you have option a and option b, and both of them are bad.

所以，是的。

So Yeah.

不管哪条路，要么公司因为觉得必须尝试而疯狂试验，结果发现生产力提升其实并不存在。

Either one leads to whether companies are just experimenting madly because they feel they must, and they discover that there's the productivity benefits aren't really there.

要么他们找到一些生产力提升，哪怕很有限，也会以此为理由进一步裁员。

Or they find some productivity benefits, however modest, and they use that as a justification for further cuts to work for.

从整个经济来看，后果是一样的。

The consequences economy wide are the same.

你会陷入多年的衰退，然后由于资产负债表的问题，情况会滑向萧条的边缘，或者至少是像日本那十年那样的长期低迷。

You're into a multiyear recession, and then because of this balance sheet problem, something that teeters on the edge of being a depression or or at least a a decadal workout like the the happy recession in, or the last decade in Japan.

那么，是什么最终阻止了超大规模企业继续借贷呢？

So what finally stops hyperscalers borrowing?

因为现在感觉他们根本不在乎。

Because at this point, it kinda feels like they don't care.

但同时，这种做法的极限在哪里？

But at the same like, where are the limits on this?

因为他们——我见过，比如，有人说他们未来一两年要筹集3040亿甚至1000亿美元。

Because they've I've I've seen, like, $304,105 $100,000,000,000 thrown out as how much they'll have to raise in the next year or two.

不。

No.

那是肯定的。

That's for sure.

所以，有物理上的限制，也有财务上的限制。

So there's there's physical limits and there's and there's and there's financial limits.

物理上的限制，显然我们已经看到了。

So physical limits, obviously, we're already seeing.

前几天《金融时报》上有一篇很棒的文章，讲的是——用个专业术语来说，我觉得这太离谱了——就是目前已经售出和预计售出的所有GPU，所需的电力供应缺口有多大。

There was a great piece in the Feet the other day talking about how and it's so loopy to me to use the technical term, like, how dramatically short we are in terms of the amount of power required to power up all of the GPUs that are currently sold and forecast to be sold.

你在这方面一直做得很好，展示了这里就是有些地方说不通。

And you've been really good on this, showing this is just something doesn't make sense in here.

存在巨大的脱节。

There's a dramatic disconnect.

确实有

There is

确实有一个非常大的脱节，这真的让我很担心。

a there is a really big disconnect that actually genuinely worries me.

我觉得你说得非常对。

And I think you're spot on with that.

造成这种情况的原因有很多，但简单来说，从数学上看，我们根本没有能力以与GPU销售数量相匹配的规模来为数据中心供电。

And there's all kinds of reasons for what's happening there, but simp the math doesn't work in terms of our ability to power up data centers on a scale commensurate with the numbers of GPUs being sold in the data centers.

我不说已经建成的，至少是规划中的。

I won't say built, but at least spec.

对。

And Yeah.

所以这里有一个自然的物理限制，但我关注的是系统问题。

So there there's a natural physical limit in here, but the system is the issue that I look to.

系统通过通胀和十年期国债收益率的表现告诉你，它正承受着巨大的压力。

So the system is telling you through what's happening with inflation, what's happening with the ten year, that it's under immense stress.

这个系统是

The system is

承受着巨大的利率压力，所以当利率很高的时候，抱歉。

under immense interest rates that are be so when the interest rates are high sorry.

我得为了自己和听众们说清楚。

I gotta be for for my sake and listeners.

当利率很高的时候，这其实就是系统在发出一些警报。

When the interest rates are high, that is the system kind of screaming a little.

系统在向你发出警报，说：我不知道这笔钱从哪里来，所以我不得不提高利率。系统是自主做出这个决定的。

The system's screaming at you and saying, I don't know where this money is gonna come from, so I'm gonna have to raise the system is is autonomously doing this.

没有任何个人在背后操作。

No individuals out there.

没有像冯·特拉普家族那样的人。

There's no one like the Von Trapp family or something.

实际上没有人站出来说：我要提高利率。

There's no one actually doing this and saying I'm gonna raise it.

所以系统在加息，因为它说，你知道吗？

So the system is raising rates because it says, you know what?

我不知道。

I don't know.

我需要从不同寻常的地方引入资金，因为唯一能让我们为你所说的需求找到合理依据或获得足够资本的方式，就是让利率上升，从其他地方吸引资本。

I need to bring money out of unusual places because the only way that we can justify or get enough capital for what you say you need is by having rates go higher and pull in capital from other places.

所以这其实只是压力的一个信号，因为接下来会发生的是门槛利率。

And so the systems that's really just a sign of stress because what happens next is the the hurdle rate.

这些数据中心必须赚到的金额，随着长期利率的上升而不断上升。

The amount that this that these the data centers have to earn goes up constantly as a result of the rise the rising tenures.

所以长期利率在过去六个月甚至三个月内上升了大约100个基点，也就是大约1%，这太疯狂了。

So the tenures gone up, like, a 100 basis points over the last so, you know, 1% roughly over the last six months or even last three months, which is crazy.

这直接转化为新建数据中心的融资成本，但还不止于此。

So that directly translates into the funding cost for new data centers, but it doesn't stop there.

因为如果长期利率上升100个基点，利差会上升得更多。

Because if the if the tenure goes up a 100 basis points, the spread goes up even more.

也就是说，不只是我现在发债的利率要高100个基点。

Meaning that it's not just that I now have to I have to put out my debt at a 100 basis points higher.

系统意识到这是一个压力时刻，所以融资利率和十年期利率之间的利差——这个利差通常用来锚定融资成本——可能会扩大到150个基点，甚至200个基点，因为系统正承受压力。

The system recognizes that this is a stressful moment, And so the spread between the rate at which you raise and the rate on ten years, which is often something you use to anchor the the cost of financing, might go at a 150, might go at 200 basis points because the system's under stress.

所以每次你看到利率上升，不如对自己说：哎呀。

So every time you see rates increase, say to yourself instead, oops.

数据中心要证明未来现金流合理，就变得更贵、更难了，而它们正是基于这些现金流来建设这些数据中心的。

It just got a lot more expensive and difficult for data centers to justify the future cash flows on top of which they're they're building these data centers.

所以回答你的问题，我们距离这个局面全面崩溃，最多还有六到十二个月，因为很明显，它们不可能赚到11%到12%的回报，而这是我们在市场压力最大的那一端看到的数字，至少10%以上。

And so to answer your question, we're within six to twelve months on the outside of this of that aspect of it all breaking because it's very clear that they're not going to earn, 1112%, which are the kinds of numbers we're seeing at the at the most stressed end of the market, 10 plus anyways.

那是不可能的。

That's not gonna happen.

没有任何经济模型能支撑这个。

There's no economics that does that.

但还有一个问题，就是已经卖出去的超大规模数据中心债务。

So but there's also another problem, which is for the hyperscaler debt that's already been sold.

所以债券持有人现在实际上赚得更少了，因为他们的债券贬值了，因为有新债的回报更高。

So the bondholders are now effectively making less money on that as in their bonds are worth less because there's new debt that's paying better.

所以任何早期投资的债券投资者可能会持有到期，也就是说他们会得到偿付。

So anyone who's invested anyone any bond investors who invested earlier will probably hold them to maturity, meaning they'll get paid off.

但与此同时，他们持有的底层资产已经不值钱了。

But at the same time, their underlying holdings are worthless.

完全正确。

That's exactly right.

但这反过来又会产生连锁反应，因为那些债务是抵押品。

So but that in turn has that in turn has consequences because that debt is the is is collateral.

没人会白白持有资产。

No one just holds anything.

这些资产被用作其他经济活动的抵押，比如杠杆或借贷。

It's that's used as collateral for other economic activity that I'm doing, whether it's, you know, leverage or other borrowing.

所以随着这些债务贬值，我作为经济参与者，进行其他经济活动的能力就下降了。

And so as this debt becomes less valuable, it reduces my ability to other things in the economy as a functioning, you know, kinda economic actor.

所以你得时刻想着这一点。

And so you have to always think about it.

我喜欢给大家推荐一些书。

I like to point people.

像唐娜·梅多斯等人写的一些书就很好。

There's some great books out there by people like Donna Meadows and others.

就是说，要用系统的眼光来看待问题。

Like, think about it in systems terms.

你得把一切都联系起来。

You have to always connect everything to everything.

那当债务贬值的时候会发生什么呢？

And what happens whenever the debt becomes less valuable?

好。

Okay.

我能做的事情就少了。

I can't do as much.

那，那，那会带来什么后果呢？

Well, what what what are the consequences of that?

就是说，把所有事情联系起来，不管出于什么原因，对人们来说真的很难做到。

Like, connecting everything for whatever reason is really hard for people to do.

而系统在告诉你。

And the system's telling you.

它在告诉你。

It's telling you.

它在对你大喊大叫，无论是世界贸易数据、通胀数据，还是十年期数据，都在表明这个系统既承受着压力，又紧密相连。

It's screaming at you, whether it's the world trade data, the inflation data, the ten year data, that the system is both under stress and wildly connected.

所有这些部分都，都，都在接近崩溃的临界点。

And all of these pieces are are are, you know, reaching breaking points.

但是什么让系统耗尽？

But what makes it what exhausts the system?

是什么让这一切慢下来？

Like, what slows this down?

因为我曾经天真地以为，理智最终会占上风。

Because I one of my moments of naivete was believing that good sense would take over.

这在历史上从未发生过。

That's never happened in history.

我现在读了更多历史，才意识到，是的。

I've now read more of history and realizing yeah.

所以，那是不可能的。

So That's not a thing.

是的。

I yeah.

那么，到底是什么让这个系统耗尽？

So what is it that actually exhausts this?

钱的极限在哪里？

Where are the limits of the money?

我不太想问具体时间，更想问一系列事件。

I'm not asking for a time period so much as an event series.

我经常这么说，但我觉得这是多重因素决定的。

I I I say this all the time, but I think it's overdetermined.

也就是说，有很多种方式会导致这个系统崩溃，因为系统在很多方面都承受着压力，无论是贸易流动，还是你知道的，可能出现资产负债表衰退，还是数据中心新债务发行的门槛越来越高。

Meaning, there's so many ways this can break because of all of those ways in which the system is under stress, whether it's in trade flows, whether it's in, you know, there's the likelihood of a balance sheet recession, whether it's in the increasing hurdle rate on new data center debt issuance.

所有这些，所有这些都可能是崩溃的触发点。

All of these all of these are places it can break.

我猜它会在某个地方崩溃，因为这类事情往往就是这样发展的。

My my guess is it breaks in somewhere because this is the way these things tend to go.

它会在某个意想不到的地方崩溃，比如一次搞砸的十年期国债拍卖。

It breaks in somewhere unexpected, Like, we have a botched ten year treasury auction.

我一点也不会感到意外。

Wouldn't surprise me at all.

那会——你是指

That would By which you

需求不足吗？

mean there is insufficient demand for it?

对，没错。

That's correct.

所以他们说了，我们想卖这么多。

So they said, here's how much we'd like to sell.

但按这个价格，我们根本卖不出去。

We can't sell that at anywhere near this price.

如果你看到这种情况发生，那其实是AI数据中心那边的问题反映出来的，十年期国债的利差会急剧扩大，也就是说会变得非常宽。

And if you saw that, something like that happen, which would be an artifact of what's happening in AI data centers, the spreads on on ten years would blow out, meaning they would get much much wider.

利差会变得非常大，利率也会上升，但这样一来，你在数据中心领域想以任何合理的价格融资，都会变得非常困难。

They would get much larger, and the rates would go higher, but it would it would explode your ability to raise debt at any economic price in the world of of data centers.

不管你是大型云服务商还是垃圾债发行方，其实都一样。

Whether you're a hyperscaler or a junk issuer, it doesn't really matter.

所以现在系统已经在告诉你，它正处在这个边缘。

And so that the system's telling you it's on the edge of that right now.

所以如果发生这种事，我一点都不意外，部分原因是因为像斯科特·贝森特这样的人总说这不可能发生，而对我来说，这恰恰说明在这种事情上永远别说不可能。

And so that would surprise me zero, in part because people like Scott Bessent are saying that could never happen, which for me is always saying, you never say never when it comes to this stuff.

我跟你说，我一个做固定收益的朋友告诉我，万一你听说财政部，抱歉。

And I will say a friend of mine in fixed income has told me that in the event you ever hear about the treasury or sorry.

是财政部在卖债券吗？

The is it the treasury that sells bonds?

还是说，对，是的。

Or is it I've yeah.

好。

Cool.

咚咚咚，警察来了。

Knock knock police to you there.

如果你听说拍卖因为技术问题被推迟了，那就是发生了那种事。

If you ever hear about a technical issue that delayed an auction, that's what happened.

这就是我一直说的。

That's what I've been talking about.

比如，如果有，对。

Like, if there's a yeah.

如果你听说他们那边出了技术问题，那就是这个情况。

If you ever hear about them being a tech yeah.

好的。

Okay.

对，完全正确。

So That's exactly right.

所以对我来说，这就是最值得关注的地方，因为正如我一直说的，这个问题已经扩散到了传统领域之外。

So there for me, that's that's the odd that's the place to look because what's happened is is this stuff has has, as I keep saying, it's kind of metastasized outside the orthodox places.

而科技圈的人在这方面真的很不擅长思考，因为他们只想着今天是圣诞节早晨，快看。

And tech bros are really bad at thinking in these terms because they think exclusively in terms of it's Christmas morning and look.

树下全是给我的礼物，我才不管这些是怎么买单的。

There's all these gifts for me under the tree, and I don't really care how it's being paid for.

因为从历史上看，这种想法还算说得过去，就是我不懂光纤电缆那些东西，但我知道现在看流媒体电影很便宜。

Because that historically was an like, was a relatively defensible way of looking at things was I don't know what's going on in, you know, I don't know, fiber optic cables, but all I know is it's now cheap for me to get streaming movies.

但这次不同的是，规模太大了，以至于不仅扭曲了贸易流动和通货膨胀，还扭曲了作为一个独立主权国家的本质。

The diff the difference this time is that the scale is so consequential that it's actually distorting not not just trade flows, not just inflation, but also the very essence of what it is to be an independent sovereign.

感觉就像有什么东西，不是那种他们借太多钱的问题。

It just feels like there is something like, it's not go it's not going to be that they just borrow too much.

就是系统会以某种方式耗尽自己。

It's just the system is going to exhaust itself somehow.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

不。

No.

不。

No.

系统会崩溃的。

The system will crack.

肯定会崩溃，我毫不怀疑。而且很可能先从欧洲开始，然后蔓延到这边。但问题会出在主权债券发行上——某个国家在发行大约十年期国债时遇到技术问题，然后这个问题会波及全球，导致利差扩大，进而影响现有债务和所有参与者的偿付能力。

It'll there's no question in my mind that it'll crack, and it'll probably happen it it could start in Europe and come this way, but it's gonna it's gonna be a sovereign and issuance problem where someone's going to have a technical issue with a major issuance at around probably sort of a ten year duration, and then that'll float around the world, cause spreads to blow out, and which will have consequences in terms of the existing debt and the solvency of all of these people playing in this area.

再说一次，不是因为AI在很多情况下没用或者怎样。

And again, not because AI isn't, you know, useful in many contexts or whatever else.

这个我就不多说了，不参与那个争论。

That's all I won't even get into that debate.

因为问题的规模决定了这必然会发生。

Just because the scale of the problem dictates this must happen.

系统已经发出信号了，但人们就是不愿意听。

And the system is telling it, but people don't wanna listen.

你还没听最新的Roland Martin Unfiltered播客吗？

Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast?

这是你错过的内容。

Here's what you missed.

争论的焦点是：你想不想赢？

And the argument is, do you want to win?

如果你不赢，你就没有权力。

If you don't win, you have no power.

这是现实。

It's real.

这些人就是我常说的，投票时总是违背自己经济利益的人，然后他们又抱怨自己看到的事情。

Those are the very people who I always say vote against their own economic interest, and they complain about the very thing they were seeing.

这很直白。

It's raw.

我知道跨性别运动员的问题在不少黑人男性中并不受欢迎。

I knew that the issue of transgender athletes was not going well with a lot of black men.

罗兰·马丁无过滤。

Roland Martin unfiltered.

我当时就爆发了。

I went off.

我说，这正是我在说的。

I said, this is exactly what I'm talking about.

你们会对香奈儿大喊大叫，

Y'all gonna scream at Chanel,

但你们却不想看到一家同等级别的黑人奢侈品牌。

but you don't wanna see a black luxury company in the same vein.

收听罗兰·马丁在黑人信息网络上的每日评论。

Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network.

12个席位，这些都在往南方转移。

12 seats, those are moving south.

所以如果你们是民主党人，别等到2030年，你们最好现在就在南方全力以赴。

So if you Democrats, you don't wait till twenty thirty, you better be hitting the ground going hard in the South now.

并在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts上下载Roland Martin Unfiltered。

And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts.

无论你在哪里获取播客。

Wherever you get your podcasts.

感觉就是不可能。

It feels just impossible.

比如，他们明年负担不起所有的资本支出。

Like, they can't afford all the CapEx next year.

这一点我们已经确定了。

Like, we've established that.

所以到了某个时候，他们就是——我是说，超大规模运营商肯定有一个点，到了那个点就太热了。

So at some point at some point, they just I mean, hyperscalers must have a point at which it's too hot for them.

就是说，肯定有一个点，到了那个点就太贵了。

Like, it must there must be a point when it's too expensive.

只是看情况有多糟。

It just depends on how bad.

但问题是，这就像查克·普林斯那句话，对吧，就是金融危机那会儿，全球金融危机的时候。

But the problem is, like, it's the it's it's the Chuck Prince line, right, from back in the the the GFC, from the financial crisis.

只要音乐还在响，我就继续跳舞。

As long as the music keeps playing, I keep dancing.

如果你——对。

If you you Right.

你不能停下来。

You can't stop.

这是一个典型的集体行动问题。

It's a collect classic collective action problem.

这和达里奥几周前发备忘录呼吁放缓前沿发展速度时遇到的集体行动问题没什么两样，诸如此类。

No different than the collective action problem whenever Dario put out the memo a couple of weeks ago asking for a frontier pacing slowdown, blah blah blah.

先不管你觉得那主意是好是坏，你立刻就会发现整个体系陷入了囚徒困境，每个人都在忙着找借口背叛合作，因为如果大家都合作，而我选择背叛，我就能比别人赚更多的钱，于是又回到了竞赛状态。

And leaving aside whether you thought that was a good idea or a bad idea, you instantly found the system thrown into a prisoner's dilemma where everyone was you could tell everyone was busy trying to find an angle to defect because if we all cooperate, but I defect, I make more money than anyone else, and you're right back into a race again.

在融资的背景下，情况完全一样。

The the exact same thing is true in the in the in the context of fundraising.

如果你的所有同行突然因为把这看作集体行动问题而停止融资，觉得我们正走向悬崖，那太好了。

If all of your peers suddenly stop raising money because they see this as a collective action problem and we're we're walking off a precipice, Great.

我是唯一还在外面大量融资的人。

I'm the only guy left who's still out there raising prodigious amounts of money.

我就能独占市场。

I get to own the market.

当然，竞赛又开始了，因为大家看到这种情况，都选择背叛，我们又回到了原来的状态。

And, of course, on goes the race because then everyone sees that and they all defect and we're right back where we were before.

那你提到，你觉得现在数据中心需要多大的回报才值得投资？

So you mentioned do you do you have any idea around what the payoff now needs to be on a data center to make it worth it?

就是，我什么

Like, I'm what

嗯，是的。

Well, yeah.

所以

So

我没想到我已经算过了。

I'm surprised that I done the math.

所以你可以从收益率的角度来算。

So you just can do it from a yield standpoint.

我的意思是，现在中位数大概是7.2%。

I mean, so the median is now around 7.2%.

所以你可以很容易地算出来，想想看

So you can do the math pretty easily in terms of think about it

啊，抱歉。

a Sorry.

就是

Just

所以这就是这些投资级市场产品为了吸引投资者所需达到的最低回报率。

So that's what the hurdle rate that these things are required to earn back to justify to to attract investors at the investment grade end of the marketplace.

在垃圾级市场，这个数字更接近10%。

It's more like 10% at the junk.

对。

Yep.

所以就像是你需要每年在投资上赚到7%。

So it's like you need to earn 7% on the investment a year.

抱歉。

Sorry.

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

所以这就是债务投资者告诉你的，他们愿意接受的条件。

So that's what debt investors are telling you they will take.

但这和说你需要赚多少才能收回已经投入的资本，不是一回事。

So it that's not the same thing as saying how much I have to earn to earn back the capital that's been spent.

那完全是另一个问题。

That's a completely different problem.

我觉得你可能永远都收不回本，但至少你能以这些条件吸引到债务投资者。

I think it's unlike you could ever earn it back, but you can at least attract debt investors on those terms.

所以这里有两个不同的问题。

So there's two different issues here.

那么，基本上对于一个超大规模数据中心来说，你每年需要赚大约7%。

So how much so you have to so you basically for a hyperscaler, you need to make about 7% per annum.

这个数字还在不断上升，但大致就是这个水平。

Which continues to rise, but on that order of thing.

没错。

That's right.

而且那个

And that's

那可能确实，哦，这真的很直接。

that's probably is, oh, that's really straightforward.

你知道，Gavin Baker在外面告诉你，对吧，这些纯推理的利润率非常高。

You know, Gavin Baker's out there telling you that, right, that the the margins on these things in terms of pure inference is are so high.

但问题是，这就是我所说的经典现象，我称之为“坏事前的收益”。

But, of course, problem is that this is the classic phenomenon of, I call it, like, earnings before bad things.

所以如果我把所有让我花很多钱的事情都砍掉，然后计算EBBT，不是EBIT，而是EBBT，坏事前的收益，那我的现金流就非常可观了。

So if I cut out all of the things that are costing me a lot of money and then I calculate EBBT, not EBIT, but EBBT, earnings before bad things, then my cash flow is tremendous.

那好吧。

Well, then fine.

那就给我看看那些已经停止在前沿模型上花钱的超大规模企业，我就相信纯粹从商品化推理的角度来看，经济账现在说得通了。

Show me the hyperscalers that have stopped spending on frontier models, and I'll buy the argument that the economics now make sense purely in terms of commodity inference.

但如果你进入这样一个世界，说，好吧。

But if you go to the world of saying, okay.

好吧。

Fine.

工业推理实际上是一个现金流相对较高的业务。

Industrial inference is actually a relatively high cash flow business.

我们就先承认这一点。

Let's just grant them that.

那么问题就变成了，谁会赢得这场竞争？

Then the question becomes, well, who's gonna win that?

如果只是工业推理，那就意味着我只需要以尽可能低的成本和尽可能大的规模来完成令牌生成序列。

Well, if it's just industrial inference, so then meaning that I'm just doing, you know, token completion sequences as low cost as possible and at at the highest scale possible.

那其实就是一个能源问题。

That's really just an energy problem.

所以就看谁能投入最多的能源。

So it's just who can throw the most energy at this.

中国每年新增的能源产能大约是美国的3倍，而且在投入的能源总量上已经领先于美国了。

China's throwing on an annual basis roughly three times adding three times as much capacity per year as The United States is and is already ahead of The US, right, in terms of the amount of energy it's thrown at this.

所以这其实挺简单的。

So it's fairly straightforward.

你就是在看太阳能板，只不过它碰巧是token。

You're just looking at solar panels, but it happens to be tokens.

但问题就在这里。

So but that's the thing.

就算推理能持续运行，推理本身真的赚钱吗？

Even with standing up inference, because inference is inference profitable?

这就像网上那些自由意志主义者的讨论一样。

It's like the Wario is a libertarian conversation online when it comes to this stuff.

我觉得没人能真正说清楚，我认为它是不赚钱的。

It's like and no one can really I think it's unprofitable.

但我这么说的原因是，推理不是简单地说，哦，我把推理机器打开就行了。

But the reason I do is is because inference isn't just, oh, I turn on the inference machine.

你得买一批GPU，然后需要达到一定的使用率，还要有足够的客户，才能让它运转起来。

It's you buy an allocation of GPUs, and you need a certain level of saturation and a certain amount of customers to make it viable.

如果需求预测不准，那就会亏得很惨。

And if you miss that demand calculation, it's horribly unprofitable.

对，完全同意。

Oh, absolutely.

这就会导致——

Which would

典型的规模问题。

a classic scale problem.

这有点像经营航空公司。

That either I'm it's kind of like running an airline.

要么就是固定成本极高的生意。

Either I'm you're very, very high fixed cost business.

所以要么赚得盆满钵满，要么就亏得一塌糊涂。

So either I'm fantastically profitable or I'm aft.

而且很少有人能运营到足够的规模，来覆盖这么高的固定成本，从而产生那样的现金流。

And and if you and very few people are able to run it at a scale requisite to be able to, you know, generate those kinds of cash flows from covering the high fixed cost.

所以这就是深层的问题。

And so this is the deep problem.

然后如果你再进一步想，如果这就是事情的本质，代币是这种全球通用的商品，那么市场正在向工业推理的方向发展，你很容易就能看出谁会赢，反正不会是OpenAI和Anthropic。

And then if you take it the next step and say, if that is the nature of what's going on and tokens are this globally fungible commodity and so that's the the the the market's moving towards industrial inference, it's, you know, fairly straightforward to see who the winners are gonna be, and it ain't gonna be OpenAI and Anthropic.

这感觉就是注定要失败的。

It just it feels so inherently doomed.

但现在，你知道吗？

But now, you know what?

你提到了Anthropic。

You you said Anthropic.

在我们开始之前，你提到你听到了一些奇怪的事情，我现在很好奇那些事情有多奇怪。

And before we got on, you were mentioning you'd heard some strange things, and I am now curious about how strange those are.

我一直听到关于那边发生的一些不寻常的事情。

So I've I every I keep hearing these unusual things about what's going on over there.

而且，显然最不寻常的事情是，这家公司为了一个不太合理的理由，疯狂地冲向IPO，我听说最初的日子好像是10月1日。

And, I mean, obviously, the most unusual thing was the company was racing fairly madly for reasons that didn't make a lot of sense, to an IPO, which was supposedly, I think, supposed to be October 1 was the first dates I heard.

是的。

Yes.

现在据说——当然，这些也都是金融和科技圈里的传言——现在又说是十一月了。

And and now, allegedly and, again, this is all just, you know, financial markets and tech market babble, but, it's now allegedly in November.

所以，时间一直在往后推。

And so, that's getting pushed out.

我的总体看法是，即使在行情好的年份，如果你说要在年底上市，那至少有一半的概率当年是上不了的，因为年底可能发生很多事情。

And my general thesis is is that in even in a good year, if you say you're going to go public in a late in the year, odds are at least 50% it won't happen that year because lots of things can happen towards the tail end of the year.

而且，这次上市还赶在美国中期选举之后。

And, of course, this one's coming after the midterm elections in The United States.

谁知道那段时间这些AI公司会不会被国有化，从而被迫让出股权。

Who knows whether or not any of these AI companies get nationalized in that period, so there's a forced equity stake.

所有这些因素都可能彻底改变公司上市的可能性。

All of these things could radically change the likelihood of the company going public.

所以公司内部现在非常恐慌，不知道在这种情况下，今年上市到底会是什么样子。

So there's raging panic inside the company about the nature of what an IPO this year would even look like given what's happening out there.

而且你可以再往深了想，比如说我是个员工，这是我从公司内部听到的消息。

And you can take it further because if let's say I'm an employee, and this is something I'm hearing from people inside.

再往深了想，员工们为了即将到来的IPO，已经行使了期权，买入了期权，结果IPO没发生。

Take it further and think about it in terms of employees having, exercised their options, purchased their options in anticipation of an upcoming IPO, and then the IPO doesn't happen.

那会怎么样呢？

Well, what happens?

好吧，假设最终

Well, let's say eventually

你把所有现金都用来买股票或者买

all your cash into buying stock or buying

你会产生一大笔税单，根据美国国税局的规定，他们有这个

You generate a massive tax bill under The U under the IRS has this thing

叫AMT的东西。

called AMT.

根据AMT，你低价买入了期权，行使了它们，然后你手里就有了有价值的东西，国税局不管你有没有拿到现金，也不管公司有没有上市。

So under AMT, you just bought something cheaply, the your options, exercise them cheaply for a low price, and then you, in turn, have been generated given something with value, it doesn't care that you never got any cash out of it, that the company never went public.

所以我认识

So I know

一些人，他们买了股票。

of people stocks.

没错。

That's right.

所以我认识很多人，他们借了几百万美元的贷款来行使期权、购买股票，如果公司今年没能上市，他们就要面临几百万美元的AMT税单，因为公司没上市。

So I know of people, many people, who've taken out multimillion dollar loans to exercise their options and purchase them and then have are going to be phased if this thing doesn't go public this year with multimillion dollar AMT bills because the company didn't go public.

所以这种情况确实发生过。

So this is this has happened.

抱歉。

Sorry.

请继续。

Go ahead.

通常来说，一家公司……这不是一个诱导性问题。

Is it usual that a comp this is not a leading question.

一家公司推迟IPO两次，这算常见还是不常见？

Is it unusual or usual that a company delays their IPO what appears to be twice?

因为他们本来打算九月份做，然后推到十月，现在又推到十一月。

Because they were meant to do it in September, then it's October, now it's November.

一般来说，对于蓝筹公司来说，这种情况不太常见。

It's it's uncommon in general with a blue chip company.

就是那种被视为顶级公司，整个卖方市场都在争着承销的那种。

So a company that's deemed to be a a marquee company that the entire sell side is, you know, beating each other up to underwrite.

这种公司通常都会按计划进行，而不是推迟。

It it's more likely that it happens on schedule than not.

所以这真的很不寻常。

So this is really unusual.

所以你可以猜到各种可能的原因，但随着年底临近，情况变得非常棘手，不仅因为在美国的政治后果，因为这件事有点像靶子，还有员工的AMT问题，就是IRS的AMT问题，而且显然，对公司本身来说，估值是否还能达到他们之前看的那些数字，也是个问题。

And so there's all kinds of reasons you might anticipate why, but it's it's very fraught as it gets closer to the end of the year, not least because of the, you know, the political consequences in The US given that this thing is kind of a, you know, laser target, but also the AMT consequences for employees, this IRS AMT issue, and and, you know, further, obviously, the the the consequences for the company itself in terms of, you know, whether or not the valuation even looks like the kinds of numbers that they've been looking at.

因为——这完全是道听途说啊——但一个跟公司关系很近的供应商告诉我，他们第三季度至少没有达到预期。

Because and, this is complete complete, you know, hearsay speculation, but a vendor who's very fairly close to the company was was told me that they had at least underperformed their expectations in the third quarter.

我完全不知道

I had no idea if

那是Anthropic干的吗？

that's Anthropic did?

Anthropic。

Anthropic.

没错。

That's right.

所以他们没达到预期。

So they they had underperformed their with their their expectations.

不过再说一次，这不是Anthropic的人说的。

Now, again, this was not from someone at Anthropic.

这是一个第三方告诉我的，他们作为供应商，对公司的内部情况非常了解，

This was from a third party who was with with intimate knowledge of what the company was doing as a provider to them on a very

即便如此，我还是很惊讶。

large my eyebrows none nonetheless.

我心想，对。

I'm like Yeah.

内部

Intra

我觉得这显然很有意思，但考虑到我们一直看到的客户集中度数据，这并不特别令人意外。

Which I thought which is obviously really interesting isn't necessarily particularly surprising in the context of the numbers we keep seeing out there in terms of customer concentration.

还有token最大化。

Token max token maxing as well.

你经历过那个每个人都在大把花钱的时代。

You had that era where everyone was blowing a bun.

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

所以，这种惊人的客户集中度一直存在于那些token最大化的客户中，而他们也在不断削减开支。

So this this incredible constant customer concentration among customers who are token maxing and who who have increasingly cut back.

所以你看，当两三个客户占了你们收入的60%以上，而且他们之前一直在搞什么token最大化之类的策略，那出现这种情况也就不奇怪了——一开始收入和增长特别猛，但到了后面就会突然出现一个空档期。

And and so whenever you have, you know, two or three customers making up 60 plus percent of your revenues, and they were, you know, following a policy of of token maxing or whatever else, it's not particularly surprising that you get this, you know, incredible pulse of revenues and growth at one point, and then you get a kind of air pocket later in the year.

看起来我们可能正在经历这种情况。

And that's exactly what it seems like we may be seeing.

对了，我不知道你有没有看过SB Energy的S-1文件。

And, I mean, I don't know if you saw the SB Energy s one.

我看过了。

I did.

那个S-1，对。

The s Yep.

真是够呛。

What a dog.

而且他们现在还把IPO推迟了。

But also they have now pushed their they've now pushed their IPO.

感觉我们现在已经处于后期阶段了。

It kind of feels like we're at the latter stages.

我好像一直在这么说。

I guess I've been saying that a while.

但现在感觉像是多个IPO被推迟，周围还发生了一些奇怪的事情。

But this feels like when you've got multiple IPOs being delayed with weird stuff happening around them.

比如，Anthropic和《金融时报》的那件事。

Like, there was the Anthropic story with the Financial Times.

他们应该更懂行，结果却是那种“哦，对”的反应。

They should know better where it was like, oh, yeah.

他们说如果去掉很多成本，毛利率能达到80%。

They have 80% gross margins if you remove many of

那些成本。

the costs.

EBITDA的问题。

The EBBT problem.

对，盈利方面。

Earning yeah.

就是扣除那些坏账之前的利润。

Earnings before bad things again.

所以我对所有这些事情的总体看法是，这要追溯到那个叫海曼·明斯基的人，他谈过金融市场中的明斯基时刻，就是金融化现象占据主导，脱离了任何现实基础，这时候事情就会加速发展然后崩溃。

So I my general view on all of these things is and I'd sort of goes back to this guy, Jaime Minsky, who talked about these sort of Minsky moments in financial markets where financialization of the phenomenon takes over and detaches from any underlying reality, that's when things accelerate and then break.

而这通常需要公开市场的参与。

And that usually requires the public markets.

通常需要人们把东西抛向公开市场，投资者们抛售。

It usually requires people to be dumping stuff into the public markets, investors dumping stuff.

所以我们现在就处在那个时刻。

And so that's the moment we're at now.

一两年前，这件事还没有公开市场的成分，至少和前沿公司本身没有直接关系。

A year or two ago, there wasn't a public market component to this in terms of directly related to the frontier companies themselves.

那时候主要显然是GPU和内存供应商。

It was mostly obviously the GPU and memory providers.

所以我们现在处于这样一个时刻，所有这些事情的中心公司正处于这种明斯基时刻，它们所做事情的金融化程度如此之大、范围如此之广，以至于影响了所有东西。

And so we're now in this moment where the the companies at the center of all of this are in this kind of Minsky moment where they're the financialization of what they're doing is so large and so broad, it's affecting everything.

但与此同时，他们都特别急于抛售股票，把它们以可信的大规模方式推向散户投资者。

But at the same time, they're all very eager to dump the shares and get them out there on a, you know, at, you know, at a credibly large scale to retail investors.

而就在那一刻，我觉得一切都开始出现裂痕，开始崩溃，因为你意识到，这就是那个金融化的明斯基时刻，一切都崩塌了。

And that's the moment that where where I think everything becomes you know, starts to crack and break and because you realize that that this this is the that financialization Minsky moment where where everything breaks down.

所以你会看到

So And you're seeing

已经有一点苗头了

a little bit of it already

伴随着各种延误和其他情况。

with the with the delays and everything else.

我的意思是，我不知道你有没有看到，甚至早在九月份就有过。

And I mean, I don't know if you saw it, but there was even back in September.

是九月份吗？

Was it in September?

我看到至少有一笔收购案，Anthropic 最终放弃了，而且那笔交易显然已经进入了后期阶段。

I saw that there was this at least one acquisition that Anthropic walked away from that it was apparently in in its late stages

Decart。

Decart.

对。

Done.

没错。

That's right.

哦，是笛卡尔。

So oh, it's Descartes.

笛卡尔。

Descartes.

所以，再说一遍，我们不要过度解读这些事情，但通常当公司临近IPO时，他们会觉得自己无所不能，好像地下室里有台印钞机，想买什么就买什么，想干什么就干什么。

And so, again, not to overread into these things, but what tends to happen as people approach IPO, they feel kind of omnipotent that I have, like, a printing press in the basement, and I can buy anything and do anything.

当你看到他们开始退缩，心想：你知道吗？

And when you see them start to pull back and think, you know what?

那台印钞机并没有我之前想的那么强大，当他们开始这么想的时候，这其实是一个非常关键的信号，说明他们看到了公司内部的一些问题，因为地下室里的那台印钞机看起来不再像以前那样无所不能了。

That printing press isn't as powerful as I once thought it was when they that that's a really important tell about what they're seeing inside the business because the printing press in the basement doesn't look as all powerful as it once did.

不过，在我们结束之前，我想简单聊聊OpenAI这次不是IPO的融资，以及他们融资的估值。

Well, as we wrap up though, I I wanted to talk briefly about this OpenAI non IPO and the fact that they're rate that they're raising at either

1107亿美元？

$11.07

还是多少来着？

or something?

他们想以1.5万亿美元的估值融资，这太惊人了。

I well, they wanna raise at 1,500,000,000,000, which is amazing.

太厉害了。

So amazing.

但最棒的是，据《纽约时报》报道，投资者试图抢先一步，说愿意给1.2万亿。

But what's great about it is, apparently, investors tried to preempt them and say, we'll give you 1.2 according to The New York Times.

但OpenAI拒绝了。

But then OpenAI said, no.

他们坚持要1.5万亿。

We want 1.5.

难道1.2都不算高，1.5这种私募估值，考虑到他们上市后能拿到的价格，是不是有点自寻死路？

Is that not even 1.2 feels like a isn't 1.5 kind of a suicidal private valuation based on what they'll get on the public markets?

显然，如果上市的话，根本没法预测公开市场会做出什么疯狂的事情。

It's imp obviously impossible to know what demented things public markets will do if you float.

这才是关键。

And this is the key.

这取决于上市规模的大小，对吧？

It depends on the size of the floatation Right?

问题就在这儿。

That's the thing.

所以，如果我像SpaceX那样，只拿出未来公开上市的一小部分来上市，那你想要多高的估值都能得到。

So if I do something like I do a SpaceX and I float a tiny sliver of my potential public eventual public issuance, you can get any price you want in terms of an eventual valuation.

所以这才是关键。

And so that'll be the key.

这真的取决于Sam有多想玩这种把戏，看他决定拿出多少来上市。

It it really comes down to how cynical Sam wants to be in terms of whatever he decides to float.

因为如果流通盘足够小，你什么都能做。

Because at a small enough float, you can do anything.

你可以，我可以，你知道，在公开市场上得到我想要的任何估值。

You can you can get I can get, you know, any any valuation I want in the public markets.

当然，接下来会发生的是，如果流通盘很小，当我六个月后把剩下的股票放出来，员工都过了锁定期，所有这些都会进入市场。

Of course, what happens then is at a small flow, when I then bring the rest of the stock out, six months, the employees all leave lockup and all of that stuff comes to market.

那么，股票当然会迅速暴跌，或者至少在预期中暴跌。

Well, then the the stock, of course, promptly craters or at least craters in anticipation of it.

所以，你知道，我的预期是，今天看到的估值越高，流通盘就会越小，最终的IPO也会越 cynical，试图操纵价格。

And so, you know, my expectation is the higher the valuation we see today, the smaller the float will be and more cynical the eventual IPO will be in terms of trying to manipulate the price.

而且我觉得，对我来说，这也是一个对投资者来说非常自杀性的融资轮。

And I think the my thing is as well as just a suicidal round for investors to put money in.

哦，当然。

Oh, of course.

而且，你看，因为价格是两万亿。

And and, look, because price is 2,000,000,000,000.

所以你得这么想，如果你是大型机构投资者，而不是散户投资者。

So so you'll never you have to think about it in terms of if I'm a large institutional investor, not a retail investor.

散户投资者，上帝保佑他们。

I you know, retail investors, god bless them.

但如果你投入比如五千万到一个亿，或者某个主权基金那么大一笔钱，以这个价格进场，那我的预期必须是上市后能很快卖掉，而且价格得大幅上涨。

But if I'm putting in, say, fifty to a hundred million dollars or something like this, some giant sovereign amount of money into this at this price, my expectation has to be that I'll be able to sell fairly quickly post IPO at a significant bump up.

那好吧。

Well, fine.

假设我只发行少量股票，就能让价格涨上去。

Let's say I can get the bump up in price by floating only a small amount of the stock.

但你永远不可能在那个涨幅中卖出几亿股，因为流通盘那么小，根本没有足够的流动性。

You'll never be able to sell hundreds of millions of shares into that bump up because there simply won't be the liquidity given the small size of the float.

所以你在账面上可能赚了钱，但实际上你被困住了。

So you'll be able to, on paper, say you made some money, but in practice, there you're you're stuck.

这一切感觉就像，把所有事情总结起来，总会有东西突然断裂，然后一切都崩溃了。

It this feels this all it all feels like to round up everything, like there is going to just be something that snaps and everything kind of falls apart.

因为这种事情通常不会因为大家出于道德或伦理原因决定退出而崩溃。

Because these things don't tend to fall apart because, oh, I like, everyone decides to pull back for ethical or moral reasons.

不是的。

It's No.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

系统崩溃了，然后，对。

The system breaks and every yeah.

系统的一部分崩溃了，然后周围的一切都跟着垮了。

Part of the system breaks and everything falls apart around it.

而且这就是关键，因为你可以再进一步想，如果规模这么大，扭曲了通胀、扭曲了长期利率、扭曲了全球贸易，那就再往前推一步。

And it's and this is it because you can take it that next step and say, if it's this large of a p if it's distorting inflation and it's distorting the tenure and it's distorting world trade, take that the next step.

这会导致——我这么说比较随意——那些所谓明智的政策制定者，因为我不确定现在还有没有这样的人。

That's causing and I use this term loosely, you know, intelligent policymakers because I'm not sure those exist anymore.

但这会导致政策被扭曲，因为如果你觉得，哦，你知道吗？

But it's causing policy to be distorted because if you if you think, oh, you know what?

关税对世界贸易没什么影响，或者，哦，你知道吗？

Tariffs didn't have any effect on world trade or, oh, know what?

尽管美国消费者很疲软，但通胀很高，所以肯定有什么东西很强劲。

Despite The US consumer being very weak, there's high inflation, so we must be something strong.

然后你就会推行各种糟糕的、自我毁灭的政策，因为你根本不了解实际发生的机制。

And you you pursue all kinds of bad and self destructive policies because you don't actually understand the mechanics of what's happening.

所以结果就是，崩溃变得更加剧烈。

And so as a result, the crack up becomes sharper.

由于对经济实际状况的本质存在巨大的误解，现在和之后之间有了更明显的分界线。

There's a sharper delineation between, you know, the now time and the after time because of this colossal misunderstanding of the nature of what's actually going on in the economy.

而且人们非常不愿意把所有线索联系起来，连美联储也是这样。

And this this wild unwillingness of people to connect all the pieces, even at the Fed.

我是说，美联储最近对经济结果的评论非常狭隘，而且非常向后看，试图用四十年前可能合理的逻辑来重新解读当前经济，但这在现在的情况下根本说不通。

I mean, the Fed's recent commentary on economic outcomes is so narrowly siloed and so backwards looking and trying to reinterpret what's happening in the economy in terms of what might have made sense forty years ago, but that don't make sense in the context of what we're seeing.

所以人们真的对这些驱动因素没有很好的把握，这会让那个不可避免的破裂变得更加严重。

So people really don't have a good handle in terms of understanding these drivers, and that makes this inevitable break, you know, much more consequential.

这也意味着人们会感到意外，对吧？

And also means that people are going to be surprised Okay?

哦，绝对是的。

Oh, absolutely.

而且，当然，我们会有那种疯狂的时刻，即使你心里明白，人们总是很紧张，担心什么呢？比如周六的时候，邻居隔着篱笆跟我说他买了某家公司的pre-IPO股票，赚了很多钱。

And and and, of course, we'll have this crazy moment where even if you feel that way, the constant people are always so nervous about, well, what happens if on a Saturday, lean over the fence and my neighbor says he bought stock in this pre IPO and it did so well.

人们天生就无法对此无动于衷，总觉得自己错过了什么，这就是那种错失恐惧症。

People are just congenitally unable to walk away from that and not feel like I missed out on something, this FOMO problem.

所以，尽管我说了这么多，人们还是会一头扎进去，然后危机就会爆发，到时候到处都是“谁知道会这样”的声音。

And so people, despite all of the things I'm saying, are gonna walk right into this, and then the crack will happen, and it'll be a lot of who who who could've known.

那真是太可惜了。

That's such a shame.

好吧，保罗，带着这个愉快的话题，非常感谢你来做客。

Well, Paul, on that happy note, thank you so much for joining me

在

on the

这周的节目。

show this week.

谢谢，Ed。

Thanks, Ed.

很高兴能来。

Good good to be here.

各位，这周五当然还有我的独白节目。

And everyone, you'll get me on a monologue this week, of course, on Friday.

Zeva，谢谢你收听《Better Offline》。

Thank you, Zeva, for listening to Better Offline.

感谢大家收听《Better Offline》。

Thank you for listening to Better Offline.

《Better Offline》主题曲的编辑和作曲是Matosowski。

The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song is Matosowski.

你可以在matosowski.com上查看更多他的音乐和音频项目。

You can check out more of his music and audio projects at matosowski.com.

Mattosowski.com。

Mattosowski.com.

你可以发邮件到easy@betteroffline.com，或者访问betteroffline.com，那里有更多播客链接，当然还有我的通讯。

You can email me at easy@betteroffline.com or visit betteroffline.com to find more podcast links and, of course, my newsletter.

我还强烈推荐你去chat.where's your ed.@加入Discord，还有去r/betteroffline看看我们的Reddit。

I also really recommend you go to chat.where's your ed.@ to visit the Discord, and go to r/betteroffline to check out our Reddit.

非常感谢你们的收听。

Thank you so much for listening.

Better Offline是Cool Zone Media制作的节目。

Better offline is a production of Cool Zone Media.

想了解更多Cool Zone Media的内容，可以访问我们的网站coolzonemedia.com，或者在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或者你收听播客的任何平台上找到我们。

For more from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

错过了最新的Roland Martin Unfiltered播客吗？

Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast?

这里是你错过的内容。

Here's what you missed.

人们醒来后，哎呀，天哪。

People wake up and go, oh, damn.

等等。

Wait.

等一下。

Hold up.

他们把那些都改了？

They changed all of that?

是的。

Yes.

是真的。

It's real.

这是一次全面的攻击。

This is a wholesale attack.

它针对的是黑人和所有联邦机构。

It is targeting black people and every federal agency.

这太赤裸裸了。

It's raw.

白人从来不允许那种清算持续超过十年。

White folks have never allowed that reckoning to last more than a decade.

收听罗兰·马丁在黑人信息网络上的每日评论。

Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network.

并在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts上下载Roland Martin Unfiltered，

And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

或者你收听播客的任何地方。

or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是iHeartPodcast，保证真人制作。

This is an iHeartPodcast, Guaranteed Human.