ChatGPT——超级助手时代 | BG2嘉宾访谈

你之前问过关于令牌消耗的问题等等。

And you asked on token consumption, etc.

看到这些情况真是太有趣了。

It's so fascinating to see.

有些人从这些产品中获得了巨大的价值，观察他们的行为非常有启发性。

There's people who get incredible value out of these products and watching what they do is very informative.

好的，我们非常关注整个用户群体，并从核心用户中学到了很多。

Okay, so we're very focused on the entire user base, learn a lot from the power users.

另一点我想说的是，目前的核心用户获得了太多价值，甚至可以说是太多了，而且很多

The other thing I might say is the power users right now are getting a lot of value, almost too much value, and a lot of

不存在这种事。

No such thing.

不存在这种事。

No such thing.

最常被提及的类比是2015年时代的Uber和Lyft。

The analog that is most common is the Uber and Lyft of the 2015 era.

这花了一点时间，但我知道你一直在认真思考。

And it took a while, but I know you were thinking about it a lot.

我知道你们一直在认真考虑定价问题。

I know you guys are thinking about pricing quite a bit.

能不能跟我们稍微讲讲定价？

Maybe tell us a little bit about pricing.

目前定价非常简单。

Right now pricing's pretty simple.

对于那些获得巨大价值的用户，有没有可能为他们的产品制定不同的定价策略，以适应他们的需求？另一端也是如此吗？

Is there a path for folks who are getting a lot of great value to price that product differently and meet them where they are, and the other way on the other side?

定价方面，当技术以如此快的速度变化时，定价不可能不发生重大演变。

And pricing is there's no world in which pricing doesn't significantly evolve when the technology is changing this quickly.

ChatGPT 最初是完全免费的，因为它的初衷只是一个演示，我们计划一个月后就停止。

ChatGPT originally was entirely free and the reason for that was that it was intended to be a demo and we were going to wind it down after a month.

但后来我们发现这个演示迅速走红，人们非常喜欢它，它实际上已经是一个产品了。

We then realized that the demo went viral and people loved the demo and it was actually a product.

但我们意识到，作为一款产品，你不能在每次达到容量上限时就下线产品。

But we realized that to be a product you can't take the product down every time you're at capacity.

我们推出订阅服务，主要是为了调节需求。

We shipped subscriptions simply because it could shape the demand.

这是一种在必须拒绝用户时优雅地处理的方式，也感觉是最公平、最合理的做法。

It was a way of gracefully turning users away when we had to turn away someone and it felt like the fairest and most equitable way of doing so.

我们想表达的是：如果你真的需要这个产品，就支付订阅费，你就能获得它。

It was saying hey, know, if you really need this product pay a subscription fee and you got it.

后来我们找到了让产品稳定的办法，于是面临一个选择：是继续保留订阅制，还是回到免费模式？

Then we figured out how make the product stable and we had the choice of do we keep subscription thing or do we go back to free?

我们意识到，我们始终面临无法扩展的技术瓶颈，GPT-4 就是第一个例子，因为我们有太多免费用户在使用 GPT-4，于是我们把它放在了 Plus 后面。所以，我们无意中进入订阅模式，其实是为了解决用户问题，当时觉得这是为技术提供最大访问权限的正确方式。

And we realized we had consistently more tech that we couldn't scale, GPT-four being the first example because we had way too many freezers to serve GPT-four and we put it behind the plus And so, you know, the way we stumbled into subscriptions was sort of accidental by trying to just solve for the user and it felt like the right way at the time to provide maximal access to our tech.

从那以后，我们又取得了许多其他突破，比如推理时计算，你可以几乎无限制地提升智能水平。

Since then we've had so many other breakthroughs including test time compute where you can scale up intelligence kind of as much as you want more or less.

这花了我们和整个行业一点时间才将其转化为产品价值，但我们现在做到了。

And it took us and the entire industry a little bit of time to turn that into product value, but we're here now.

我们的用户只是想要越来越多的智能。

Our powers just want to use more and more and more intelligence.

在当前这个时代，无限计划可能就像无限用电计划一样。

And it's possible that in the current era, having an unlimited plan is like having an unlimited electricity plan.

这并不合理，因为人们可能需要大量的电力，并从中获得巨大的价值。

It just doesn't make sense because people may need a lot, a lot of electricity and they're getting a lot of value out of that.

你无法购买这种服务是有原因的。

There's a reason you can't buy that.

对吧？

Right?

因此，我当然会非常谨慎地考虑我们如何演变我们的计划、产品规格和订阅模式，但考虑到我们所取得的技术突破及其带来的产品革新，如果这一切没有变化，我会感到非常惊讶。

So obviously, I want to be really thoughtful about the way that we evolve our plans and SKUs and subscriptions, but I'd be incredibly surprised if it didn't change given the magnitude and profoundness of the technical breakthroughs that we've had and the product breakthroughs that follow.

与此相关，我猜你们会为高级用户提供某种服务。

Relatedly, so I imagine you're going to have something for the power users.

那另一端呢？

What about the other side?

我们如何让普通用户参与进来，同时还能从中盈利？

How do we get the casual users into the wheel and still monetize them?

如前所述，我们的商业模式将不断演变，核心目标是实现访问权。

As mentioned, our business model will evolve and the North Star is access.

我们希望选择一种方式，提供能最大化人们使用我们最强大工具的机会。

We like to pick a way of providing we want to provide an offering that maximizes the number of people who can access our most powerful tools.

我认为

I think

长期以来，这一直是订阅模式。

for the longest time that has been subscriptions.

订阅模式的缺点是，在许多市场，人们没有信用卡，也不用信用卡来订阅软件，我们正在探索其他能扩大技术访问范围的方式。

Subscriptions have the downside of the fact that in many markets people don't have credit cards, they don't use credit cards to subscribe to software, We're interested in other ways that can maximize access of the tech.

我们的广告试点项目正是基于这种理念。

Our ads pilots are in that spirit.

我们真正将其视为一种工具，旨在将ChatGPT和我们的智能技术广泛地带给全球任何人。

We really view it as a tool of bringing ChatGPT and our intelligence most broadly to anyone around the world.

这正是我们不断需要进化、找到最佳方式以使需求与我们能提供的能力相匹配的例子。

And it is an example of how we constantly need to evolve and figure out the best way to bring the demand in line with what we are able to offer.

有道理。

Makes sense.

有道理。

Makes sense.

你知道，广告这一块一直是个难题，因为萨姆历来对广告持保留态度，而你必须维持大量的信任。

You know the The ads ads piece has been a tricky one because Sam has historically expressed reluctance about ads, and you've got to maintain a lot of trust

同时还要实现这一点。

while delivering that.

我想是什么发生了变化？

I guess what changed?

我认为在我在OpenAI的整个历史中，我们多次讨论过这个问题，每次提到时我们都表示，如果要做广告，就必须非常谨慎地设计方式。

I think we've talked about this several times in my history at OpenAI, and every time it came up we said if we were to do ads we'd have to be really thoughtful about the way we do it.

因此，我们从去年年底开始做的第一件事，就是让公司深入思考：如果我们把广告放入ChatGPT，应该怎样去做？

So the first thing we did, starting end of last year, was to really engage the company on if we put ads in ChatGPT, how should we approach it?

这些原则应该侧重什么？

What should the principles weigh?

如何在保留ChatGPT那些神奇之处的同时，获得广告带来的好处——即让我们最先进的技术能够惠及任何人，无论他们是否有能力付费？

How do you preserve the things that are magical about ChatGPT, while getting the benefits of ads, which is our ability to bring our most advanced tech to anyone, regardless of their ability to pay.

我真的很喜欢我们在原则层面最终达成的成果。

And I really love where we ended up on the principal side.

在体验层面，我们还处于非常非常早期的阶段。

On the experience side, we're very, very early.

但在原则层面，我感到非常自豪，因为确保ChatGPT的回答具有独立性至关重要。

But on the principal side I feel really proud because it's very important that the answer of ChatGPT be independent as an example.

尊重用户隐私非常重要，我们可以从过去几年乃至整个十年科技发展的过程中学到很多。

Respecting user privacy is very important and there's a lot to learn from the way that tech has evolved over the last few years or really last decade.

我喜欢在我们真正开始之前，这些原则就已经明确了。

I like that the principles are out there before we've even really gotten started.

我们的试点项目还处于非常早期的阶段。

Like, we're very early with our pilots.

你知道，这还挺有意思的。

You know, it it's kind of interesting.

我显然非常紧张而热切地关注着我们的支持入站数据。

Was obviously very anxiously and eagerly looking at our support inbounds and data.

关于广告，最常见的问题并不是如何禁用或关闭广告。

And the most common inquiry about ads is not, you know, how do I disable ads or turn off ads?

而是：我该怎么投放广告？

But it's like, how do I run an ad?

因为整个生态系统都非常期待能参与其中，找到与ChatGPT用户沟通的方式。

Because the entire ecosystem is really excited to be part of the story and to figure out a way to talk to ChatGPT users.

所以还有很多内容即将推出，但我非常希望把这件事做对。

So there's a lot more to come, but I'm very eager to get this right.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我相信你们一定会的。

I'm sure you guys will.

换个话题，尼克，你和我之前稍微聊过一点关于分发和合作的事情。

Switching gears, Nick, something you and I have spoken about a little bit is distribution and partnerships.

去年有几项重要的合作，比如Reliance和Gemini。

There's a couple of big partnerships last year, Reliance with Gemini.

这两个都是庞大的用户群体，对吧？

Those are two big user bases, right?

主要集中在印度，还有大量iOS用户。

A lot of India, lot of the iOS users.

谈谈你对ChatGPT如何通过合作触达用户群体的看法吧，尤其是针对这两项合作。

Talk, tell us a little bit about how you think about partnerships for ChatGPT to meet the user base, and maybe specifically on those two as well.

我认为，合作是将两个产品结合起来的好方法，能让那些原本可能接触不到ChatGPT的人了解它。

Look, think partnerships are a great way to bring two products together and to expose something like ChatGPT to people who might not otherwise have encountered it.

在考虑合作时，我最关心的是用户体验，我们能否让它变得卓越？

The thing that I care about most when considering something like a partnership is what is the user experience and can we make it amazing?

毕竟归根结底，当你观察市场上的情况时，你可以让用户点击某些东西。

Because at the end of the day when you look at what's going on in the market, You can get users to click on things.

你可以让他们点击任何类型的产品，尤其是那些看起来像他们熟悉的产品等等。

You can get them to tap any sort of product, especially if it looks like a product they recognize, etcetera.

但如果体验不够出色，用户就会流失，或者至少不会像我们在ChatGPT上幸运地留住他们那样长期留存。

But if the experience isn't truly awesome, people will churn or they will at least not retain in the way that we've been lucky to retain them on ChatGPT.

因此，出于这个原因，我对这类合作路径非常感兴趣，但前提是必须做到极致。

So for that reason, I'm super interested in paths like that, but it needs to be great.

这必须为用户带来价值。

It needs

我们非常幸运，拥有一个优秀的品牌和许多用户熟知的产品，我希望确保我们所做的每一件事都能增强这一切。

to accrue to the user.

尼克，你真是权衡取舍的大师。

We are very lucky to have a great brand and a recognizable product for many folks, and I want to make sure that anything we do is accretive to all that.

Nick, you are a master of trade offs.

Nick, you are a master of trade offs.

你现在一定在做很多权衡吧。

You must be making a lot of trade offs right now.

跟我们说说你正在做的某些权衡。

Tell us about some of the trade offs you're making.

跟我们说说一个外界可能没意识到的权衡。

Tell us about a trade off that you might be making that people don't appreciate from the outside.

确实存在很多权衡，而且原因各不相同。

There are a lot of trade offs indeed and for different reasons.

我经常遇到的一种权衡是：在现有产品功能上优化用户体验，还是投入资源开发突破性技术，以创造全新的使用场景。

One I encounter a lot is trading off, delivering on the people on the use cases that exist in the product today and making them better versus productizing step change technology that's going to generate a whole another set of use cases.

当你思考ChatGPT是如何诞生的时候，它原本是一个完全开放的产品。

When you think about how ChatGPT came to be, it was a totally open ended product.

它本质上是围绕一项技术突破构建的用户体验，我们当时无法预知人们会用它来做什么，但将其发布出去至关重要，因为这让我们和整个世界都能发现它的可能性。

It was basically a user experience around a technical breakthrough, and we couldn't have told you all the ways that people find it valuable, But putting it out there was really important because it allowed us to discover and the world to discover what you can do.

在ChatGPT发布之后，我们当然可以系统性地改进人们真正想用的功能。

And then post ChatGPT, we can obviously very systematically go and improve on the things that people actually want to use it for.

当你身处一家公司，既拥有当前产品令人惊叹的市场表现，又在研究方面取得颠覆性的突破时，你需要平衡的是：在提升核心产品体验（如降低延迟、提高可靠性、优化用户真正使用的功能）与提供突破性技术的访问权限之间找到恰当的平衡。

And when you're at a company in this moment where you both have such amazing traction with what exists today and the most mind bending breakthroughs on the research side, the balance you have to strike is making the core product you have better today with all the things that matter: latency, reliability, making the use cases really great that people come to, with providing access to the step change.

我们努力把握好这个平衡，但我们团队规模小，有时并不能做到完美。

And, you know, we try to get the balance right, but we're a small team and we don't always get it right.

正因如此，这是我必须应对的最艰难的权衡之一。

And for that reason, that's one of the most difficult trade offs that I have to deal with.

尼克，我猜你们在这里面临的最艰难的权衡之一，就是那些在ChatGPT、Codex和研究之间过热的GPU。

Nick, I imagine one of the hardest trade offs you guys make here is those GPUs that are melting between ChatGPT, between Codex, Research.

你们是如何分配这些GPU的？

How do you guys allocate the GPUs?

这是个非常好的问题，等我找到答案后告诉你。

That is a very good question, and I'll let you know when I figure it out.

开玩笑的。

Just kidding.

你知道，我们在这件事上已经进步了很多。

You know, we we've gotten we've gotten a lot better at this.

顺便说一下，我真心希望有一天能到达这样一个阶段——我至今还没达到——那时我们不再需要面对这种权衡，因为面对用户强烈需求却无法满足，真的非常痛苦。

I really hope, by the way, to be at a point one day, and I've yet to reach that point where we don't have to face this trade off because it's really painful to have real user demand for products that you can't serve.

如果你只在软件行业工作过，这种动态就完全不寻常了，对吧？你只是受限于这种零和资源。

Again, if you only ever worked in software that's an entirely unusual dynamic, right, where you just, you know, where you were limited by this zero sum resource out there.

市场平台确实有这种问题，但我觉得纯软件行业其实并没有这种动态，对吧？

The marketplaces have it, but you know I think pure software doesn't doesn't really have the dynamic, right?

所以我们尝试做的一件事是，显然优先满足现有用户的需求。

So one thing we try to do, obviously, we prioritize our existing users first.

我们希望提供快速、可靠的产品，这是基本要求和前提条件。

We want to provide a fast reliable product and that is critical and table stakes.

当你考虑新功能时，那种天真的商学院做法可能是根据每张GPU带来的增量收入来评估。

Then when you look at new capabilities, the sort of naive business school thing to do would be to probably look at revenue, incremental revenue per GPU or something like that.

但这里更多是一种艺术而非科学，因为我们常常会遇到一些全新的、从零到一的突破性能力。

But this is where it's more an art than a science because we often have new breakthrough capabilities that are entirely zero to one.

深度研究就是其中之一。

Deep research was one of those.

我们当时无法预知市场是否会接受一个研究型产品，但如果你不去把它产品化去验证，就永远无从得知。

We couldn't have told you is there going to be consumer demand for a research product, but if you don't productize it to find out, you will never know.

因此，我们必须谨慎权衡那些显而易见、用户一定会喜爱的功能，与那些全新的创意之间的平衡。

So this is where we have to be a little bit thoughtful on how balance, you know, things that are no brainers that people are really gonna love with things that are brand new ideas.

当然，在研究方面，马克之所以担任这个职位，是因为他的一大职责就是决定哪些研究项目值得投入，而GPU显然是其中的关键部分。

And then obviously on the research side, there's a reason that Mark has the job he has because a big part of his job is figuring out what research to fund and, obviously GPU is a big part of that.

这是一个非常微妙的议题，我们一直在不断改进，但对我而言，优先级始终是用户的需要。

Very nuanced topic that we're continuously getting better at, but for me the priority is always on our users.

是的。

Yeah.

我另一个体会是，你无法预见什么时候能摆脱这个问题。

The other takeaway that I had is you don't have line of sight to a time when you won't have that problem.

这非常有趣，因为我们显然非常幸运，遇到了越来越多希望使用我们技术的用户，而我们为每位用户创造的价值也在持续提升，我们的GPU消耗量与这一价值高度相关。当你观察每个用户的令牌消耗量，尤其是在企业领域，会发现巨大的机会——你会看到大量对GPU需求极高的工作流程，而且即便价格下降，需求仍在持续增长。

It's been so fascinating because we obviously have been incredibly lucky to encounter more and more users who want to use our technology, but then the value that we're able to provide for each user is going up as well, our GPU consumption correlates pretty well with that value, And when you just look at token consumption per user, especially in the enterprise too, is a massive opportunity, you see a lot of very GPU hungry workflows and yes, demand keeps going up even as prices go down.

这是一个非常引人深思的见解。

This is a fascinating insight.

人们过去认为人类是无法无限增加的。

People used to think that humans were you you can't kind of make more humans.

嗯，生一个孩子要九个月，再养大要十九年，但你说，实际上人类资源比GPU更不有限。

Well, it takes nine months and then nineteen years, but you're saying, well, that's actually a less finite resource than GPUs.

是的。

Yeah.

从人力的角度来看，你可以雇佣更多的人，我们确实一直在这么做，把各领域的顶尖人才吸引到OpenAI。

Mean, on the human side, you can hire more humans, and obviously we've been busy doing that and bringing the best talent across functions to OpenAI.

在智能体的世界里，每个员工也能获得更大的杠杆效应。

In the world with agents, can also get more leverage per human.

你可以让你的员工在工作中更加高效，完成更多任务。

You can make your humans very effective at their job to do more.

但GPU是零和博弈，如果你没有更多的GPU，你就必须学会做出非常艰难的取舍，为用户做出艰难的权衡。

But GPUs are zero sum, and if you don't have more GPUs, you really have to figure out how do you bake very, very hard trades and hate making hard trades for our users.

因此我们渴望拥有更多GPU，但在规划时，最好从最零和的资源限制出发，所以我认为从GPU倒推通常是很好的思路。

Hence the desire to have more GPUs, but it's useful to start with the most zero sum trade off when you do your planning, so I think starting working backwards from GPUs is usually a pretty good idea.

是的。

Yeah.

我们拥有所有这些外部数据源，涵盖用户、使用情况、活跃度和留存率等各项指标。

We have all these external data sources for charts of users and usage and activity and retention, all those things.

但我们没有用户随时间变化的令牌使用量数据。

What we don't have is tokens per user over time.

我猜这张图表会呈现出一条向上的漂亮曲线。

And I bet that chart is like a sweet line going this way.

我认为内部数据已经相当不错了，我们的内部员工数据是预测未来趋势的很好指标，是的，这些图表令人震惊。

I think internal is pretty good, our internal employees is a pretty good indicator for what's about to happen and yes, the charts are mind boggling.

是的，是的，是的，非常有趣。

Yeah, yeah, yeah, fascinating.

好吧，在我们进入购物这个话题之前，先快速聊几个当前的问题。

Okay, a couple of quick ones on the present before we go into the landscape, which is, you know, shopping.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你知道吗，我们刚搬进了新房子。

You know, we just moved into a new house.

我们拍了一些照片，本来希望所有家具都能神奇地出现，而且都是ChatGPT帮我们搭配的色彩。

We took some photos, and we were hoping that all our furniture would magically appear that ChatGPT helped us paint.

但最近ChatGPT在购物方面的更新不少。

But, a recent lot updates on ChatGPT shopping.

跟我们说说吧。

Tell us about it.

你觉得ChatGPT作为购物助手怎么样？

What are you thinking ChatGPT as a shopping assistant?

购物是ChatGPT当前自然出现并有效运行的用例之一。

Shopping is one of those use cases that exist organically in ChatGPT today and they work.

你可以向ChatGPT咨询任何你计划购买的商品，它会提供相当出色的建议。

You can ask ChatGPT about any purchase you might be planning and get pretty excellent advice.

但这也是一个例子，说明当前聊天中的体验还不够完美，因为购物是非常视觉化的，你希望实际看到产品、图片，能够对比选择，而不仅仅是阅读大段文字。

But it's also one of those cases where the experience that exists in chat today, it's not the perfect experience that you would want because shopping is very visual, for example, so you're going to want to actually see products and images and be able to compare and contrast, not just read walls of text.

人们关心信息来源，比如我想了解更多关于某个产品的信息该去哪里？

People care about the sources of where can I learn more about a given product etc?

因此，还有很多工作要做，才能让这种发现体验真正出色，帮助人们使用ChatGPT找到合适的购买产品。

And so there's a lot of work to do to make this discovery really really good in allowing people to use ChatGPT as an assistant to find the right product to buy.

而这正是我们的关注重点。

And that's where our focus lies.

我们要让这个体验变得非常出色，同时也要确保它对我们的零售合作伙伴同样有效。

It's making that really great and making that really great in a way that works for our retail partners as well.

因为正如我之前提到的，整个生态系统对参与ChatGPT的旅程有着巨大的热情，而到目前为止，完善发现功能是最有前景的方向。

Because as I mentioned earlier, there's huge appetite from the ecosystem to be part of the ChatGPT journey, nailing the discovery piece has been the most promising focus area to date.

尼克，在ChatGPT上，你一定看到了海量的信息。

Nick, on ChatGPT, you must see a breadth of information.

你一定看到了人们使用ChatGPT的多种应用场景。

You must see a breadth of use cases that people are doing with ChatGPT.

能跟我们分享一下吗？有没有什么关于ChatGPT的事情是世界可能低估了的，而你却感到惊讶，或者听众也会感到意外的？

Tell us something about, does the world underestimate about ChatGPT that you have maybe been surprised by or a listener might be surprised by?

过去一年左右，人们对ChatGPT的看法发生了真正的变化，它越来越成为人们真正的思维伙伴。

There's been a real change in the way that people think of ChatGPT over the last year or so where it's increasingly a true thought partner to people.

它不仅仅是一个回答问题的工具，而是一个你可以与之深入探讨、共同思考问题的对手。

It's not just a thing that answers your question, but it's a thing that you can it's a sparring partner that you can actually think things through with.

这种变化体现在各种需求中，比如生活建议：当你遇到感情问题时，ChatGPT能帮你理清思路，教你如何与伴侣沟通；同样，在工作场景中，无论是做分析、构思表达方式，还是构建某个项目，它都能提供帮助。

And that shows up in all kinds of demands ranging from life advice, where you've got a relationship problem you can actually get a lot of value out of ChatGPT just helping you think through how to handle it and how to talk to your partner about it, all the way to a work setting where you're working on an analysis or you're trying to figure out how to frame something or you're trying to build something.

ChatGPT某种程度上就像一个第二大脑，我认为这在人们心中的心理模型上带来了质的差异，这一点也体现在使用模式和应用场景中。

And ChatGPT really shows up as a second brain of sorts, and I think that's qualitatively different in terms of how the mental model it occupies with people, and you see in the usage patterns and the use cases that exist.

我认为，当我们更好地完善生产力、任务处理等这些我们之前讨论过的内容时，它会越来越像职场中的同事，也像家里的超级助手。

I think the more we nail things like productivity, which we talked about earlier, tasks, etc, I think the more it's going to feel like a teammate in the workplace and like a super assistant at home.

我认为这将从根本上改变人们使用它的场景和目的。

And I think that's going to meaningfully change the use cases that people come for.

是的，我用ChatGPT做过的最重要的一件事是，我们有了一个新生儿，凌晨三点宝宝哭闹时，我会问ChatGPT：这是怎么回事？

Yeah, the most high stakes thing I do with ChatGPT is we have a new baby, and when the baby's crying at three in the morning, ChatGPT, what's going on?

首先，恭喜你。

First of all, congrats.

其次，我听我认识的所有父母都说过，ChatGPT 已经变得不可或缺，而且这确实说得通，对吧？

Second of all, I've heard this from all parents in my life, that ChatGPT has become indispensable as And a thought it makes sense, right?

如果你遇到一个非常具体的情境，或者觉得这是你独有的情况，ChatGPT 真的能派上用场，帮助你建立信心。

If you have a really specific scenario or you think it's a specific scenario to you, ChatGPT really comes through and can help you build confidence.

我认为

And I think

这真是一件令人充满力量的事情。

that's such an empowering thing.

我想象新父母们并不总是对自己的行为是否正确有足够的自信。

I imagine new parents aren't always the most confident about what is the right thing to do.

如果 ChatGPT 能让你感受到自己拥有主动权和掌控感，我觉得这真的很有价值。

And if ChatGPT can make you, you know, feel like you you you you are you have agency and control and, you know you know, I think that's really valuable.

是的。

Yeah.

这太重要了。

It's huge.

谢谢你创造了ChatGPT。

Well, thank you for making ChatGPT.

它每天 literally 让我多睡一个小时。

It's literally getting me an extra hour of sleep every day.

这离不开大家的努力，但这是一个很棒的指标。

It took a village, but that is a great metric.

你知道，这应该是我们的核心指标。

You know, that should be the North Star metric.

这就像

It's like

零星增加的睡眠时间。

incremental hours of sleep.

这真是个不错的指标。

That's That's a great one.

零星增加的睡眠时间，零星增加的快乐。

Incremental hours of sleep, incremental hours of joy.

就是这样。

There you go.

我的意思是，你虽然在开玩笑，但我们经常讨论这个。

I mean, you joke, but, like, we talk about this a lot.

而且从精神层面来说，这几乎就是我们希望做到的——帮助你实现你所认为的自我实现，无论那是指睡眠、快乐，还是其他任何目标。

And because spiritually that is pretty close to what we hope we can do, right, is help you reach whatever you consider self actualization, whether or that's sleep or joy or any other goal you might have.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

好。

Yeah.

那你就是那个团队了。

Well, you to the village.

我们换个话题，聊聊这个领域。

We're gonna switch gears and talk about the landscape.

当然。

Sure.

场上的情况很多。

There's a lot going on on the field.

你知道吗，你会如何向外界解释ChatGPT的独特之处？

You know, how would you frame ChatGPT's differentiation to to to people out there?

市面上有很多不同的产品。

There's a lot of different products out there.

看吧，现在是历史上作为科技消费者最好的时代。

Look, it's the best time in history to be a consumer of technology.

确实如此。

It is indeed.

因为你有多种选择，竞争非常激烈，我觉得这很棒。

Because you've got options, and the competition is intense, and I think that's beautiful.

而且这对我们也有好处，因为如果你提前预判OpenAI这样的公司为何无法实现其使命，很可能是因为在接近通用人工智能时，出现的机会太多，导致焦点分散，对吧？

And it's actually good for us too because if you were to pre mortem why a company like OpenAI does not achieve its mission, it's probably focused because of the sheer number of opportunities that become possible when you approach AGI, right?

而且，有竞争和选择也迫使我们更加关注客户和真正重要的事情，而这些事情并不总是最炫目的，对吧？

And having competition and options out there I think it forces us to focus on our customers too and on things that really matter, which aren't always the most flashy things, right?

有时候是延迟、可靠性，以及用户体验的质量。

Sometimes it's latency, reliability, the quality of the user experience.

所以我认为这是一件非常好的事。

So I think it's a really good thing.

我认为ChatGPT最大的差异化在于背后的团队，因为我们不是一成不变的。

I think the biggest differentiation of ChatGPT is the team behind it because we're not static.

对吧？

Right?

我们所构建的任何东西都会被复制。

Anything we build will get copied.

有时是以高水准的方式复制，有时则只是敷衍了事，而对我们来说，最重要的是推动这个品类进化，打造我们一直设想的超级系统。

Sometimes in ways that are high craft, sometimes in ways that are sort of check And it's really important to us that we evolve the category and build the super system that we've always imagined.

我认为我有信心能够以超越被复制速度的速度实现这一点，原因就在于我们拥有一个出色的团队。

And I think the reason that I have confidence that that's possible at a speed that outpaces the dynamic of being copied is that we have an amazing team.

而且我们拥有一支横跨研究、工程、设计以及所有其他关键职能的卓越团队，共同打造令人惊叹的产品。

And that we have an amazing team across research and engineering and design and all the different functions that it takes to make something amazing.

我认为我们的独特优势在于，能够将这些职能整合在一起，在当下创造出既实用又可行的产品。

I think our unique ability has been to bring those functions together to build something that is sort of at the intersection of useful and possible right in that moment.

所以，我最好的回答是：我们会持续向前推进，并希望不断拓展人们对这一产品的认知。

So my best answer for you is we keep pushing forward and we hope to be expanding what people think of this product as.

你知道，去年冬天，我们经历了所谓的‘红色警报’。

You know, last winter we had obviously what was called Code Red.

谷歌推出了一款出色的模型。

Google had a great model.

当时有很多讨论，比如马克·贝尼奥夫公开转向Gemini，而我们则暂停了广告、健康助手和购物功能。

There was a lot of, you know, talk about it, Marc Benioff switching very vocally to to to to Gemini and us delaying ads and health agents and shopping.

基本上是按下了暂停键，全力改进ChatGPT。

Basically hit pause and everything, making ChatGPT better.

跟我们聊聊那个时刻吧，是什么促使我们做出这样的决定，当时又发生了什么。

Talk to us about that moment, both about what led to that and what was happening in that moment.

是的

Yeah.

首先，Code Red 是我们用来集中注意力的一种工具。

So first off, Code Reds are a tool we use to create focus.

你可以想象，在像 OpenAI 这样的地方，让我们与众不同的是，有太多不同的事情在同时进行。

As you can imagine, when you're in a place like OpenAI, this is what makes us special to work here, is there are so many different things going on.

这是一座研究实验室。

It's a research lab.

我们正在探索许多不同的想法，对吧？

We are pursuing many different ideas, right?

在某些时刻，我们希望整个公司能够跨越界限，共同解决一个问题，无论你当时负责的是哪个项目。

And there's been these moments where we've wanted the company to come together to solve a problem across boundaries, no matter what your project might have been.

去年年底，我们就经历了一个这样的时刻，我们觉得必须为用户全力以赴，专注于可靠性、性能、与模型对话的体验，以及让个性化功能真正出色。

At end of last year we had one of those moments where we felt like we need to show up for our users, we need to focus on the basics like reliability, performance, the way that talking to the model feels, making personalization really great.

所有这些用户关心的要素。

All these elements that our users care about.

我非常喜欢，因为这真是一个难得的机会，能和平时很少合作的同事们一起把产品做得更好。

And I loved it because was really an opportunity to work with a bunch of folks who I don't normally get to work with on making the product great.

我们刚刚结束了Code Red，这正是我们预期的，伴随着5.3版本的发布，这是一个为普通用户打造的优秀模型。

And we just exited the Code Red, which we knew we would with the launch of 5.3 which is a great model for the everyday user.

和它对话的感觉很棒。

It's great to talk to.

还有5.4版本，如果你要做真正的知识型工作，它就是那个得力助手。

And 5.4, which is Workhorse if you're trying to do real knowledge work.

毫无疑问，只要我们希望集中精力，就会继续使用Code Red这个工具。

Undoubtedly, we're going to continue to use the tool of a code red whenever we want to create focus.

但我很兴奋，因为我觉得ChatGPT现在处于一个非常好的状态。

But I'm excited because I think ChatGPT is in a great spot.

是的。

Yeah.

所以Code Red现在结束了。

So Code Red is over now.

没错。

That's correct.

这不是新常态。

It's not the new normal.

这不是新常态。

It's not the new normal.

我们希望它是一件特别的事情，但我怀疑我们会继续使用这个工具。

We want it to be a special thing, but it is a tool I suspect we will continue to use.

太好了。

That's great.

太好了。

That's great.

如果具体来说，你能指出Code Red是如何改变ChatGPT，或者运营方式，或者团队运作的吗？

And maybe tangibly if you were to point at how did Code Red change ChatGPT or maybe the ops or or how the team operates?

我努力让团队做到的，就是专注。

The thing I try to get, like, you know, the faster with the team is focus.

因此，相比六个月前，我们对真正想要攻克的事项更加专注了。

So we're certainly more focused than we were six months ago on the things we really want to nail.

其中一些事情是幕后工作，比如延迟和可靠性这类问题。

Some of those things are very behind the scenes like latency, reliability, those kind of things.

还有一些则是有意识的集中努力，比如将ChatGPT整合进超级助手。

And some of those things are like very concerted efforts like involving ChatGPT into the super assistant.

因此，专注是我们最重要的持久成果。

And so focus is the main lasting artifact.

正如你所想象的，当这个领域有这么多事情发生时，保持专注并不容易，但这就是艰难的工作。

And as you imagine, it's hard to stay focused sometimes when there's so much going on in the space, but that's the hard job.

你之前问过我关于权衡的问题。

You asked me about trade offs earlier.

让团队专注于真正对用户重要的事情，无疑是其中之一。

Getting the team to focus on the things that really matter to users is certainly one of them.

这总是值得的。

That's always worth it.

是的

Yeah.

你知道吗，当我问你这个问题时，我脑海中想到的是现在所有其他创始人。

You know, in the back of my mind as I ask you that question is all the other founders that in the arena right now.

提醒一下，Code Red 是为你准备的工具。

Just a reminder that, hey, Code Red is a tool for you.

我们过去称之为‘战时’的 Foundry，也是一种工具。

Wartime at Foundry, as we used to call it, is a tool.

是的，我认为每个公司在如何完成工作方面都不同，但拥有能传达明确信号的术语非常有价值——它告诉人们，放下其他事情、集中精力共同完成这件事是完全可以的，即使这并不是你原本的工作。

Yeah, I think every company does it differently in terms of how you get stuff done, but I think it's really valuable to have terminology that means something that signals to people it's okay to drop your other stuff, and it's okay to focus on this thing together even if that wasn't your original job.

所以我认为在 OpenAI 这样的地方，这种方法非常有效，但我想象初创公司也会有类似的机制。

So I think it works really well at a place like OpenAI, but I imagine startups would have an equivalent.

是的

Yeah.

你知道吗，我们团队中让所有人感到振奋的一件事，是 Peter 在 OpenCLO 所做的事情。

You know, one of the things that caught everybody's imagination on our team was what Peter was doing at OpenCLO.

把所有工具整合在一起，威力巨大。

Incredibly potent to put all the tools together.

显然，彼得是个出色的构建者。

Obviously, Peter's a great builder.

恭喜你把彼得招入团队。

Congrats on bringing on Peter to the team.

能跟我们讲讲彼得正在做什么吗？什么时候ChatGPT的用户能在那里看到成果？

Tell us a little bit about what Peter's working on and when might the billions on ChatGPT have something to see there?

首先，我非常高兴彼得能加入我们。

Well, first of all, I'm very excited for Peter to be here.

我很高兴家里又多了一位德语使用者。

I was excited to have another German speaker in the house.

他是奥地利人，我是德国人。

He's Austrian, I'm German.

所以我们每天互相说早上好。

So we're exchanging Guten Morgans.

OpenAI 非常鼓舞人心，因为它以多种方式实现了我们曾经在不同形式下构想过的愿景——一种完全具身化、跨越不同用户界面、能为你做事、拥有状态和交互模式的 AI，这种交互方式更像在与人类交谈，因为 OpenAI 让你能以非常自然的方式互动，可以来回发送大量文本，而且非常简洁。

OpenAI is so inspiring because it brought to life in many ways a vision that we'd had in different forms admittedly around this kind of AI that is fully embodied, that exists across different UIs that can do stuff for you, that has state, that has an interaction pattern that feels a little bit more like talking to a human because OpenAI allows you to interact in a very, very natural way where you can send many texts back and forth and it's very curt.

因此，OpenAI 的许多元素对整个行业的人来说都起到了非常清晰的启发作用。

And so there's a lot of elements of OpenAI that I think were very clarifying to folks across the industry.

但我最兴奋的是能向 Peter 学习，把他引入公司，一起探索我们能共同实现什么。

But the best I'm super excited to just learn from Peter and bring him into the company and figure out what we can do together.

还有更多值得期待的内容。

There's there's a lot more to come.

好的。

Alright.

接下来进入最有趣的环节——快速问答。

So now on to the most fun section, rapid fire.

好的。

Alright.

你准备好了吗？

You ready?

当然。

Sure.

我们先从我最最喜欢的游戏开始，那就是Long Short。

We'll we'll start with my most my my my favorite game, which is Long Short.

选一个你喜爱的、非常看好的想法、初创公司、业务或产品。

Pick an idea, a startup, a business, a product that you love, you think you're very bullish on.

如果我今天要创办一家公司，我会对那些深入企业、高度参与、以AI提供专业服务的公司感到非常兴奋，因为我们都已经饱和了所有评估环节，你需要贴近问题本身。

If I were starting a company today, I'm really excited about these companies that are going into companies and getting extremely hands on and doing effectively professional services with AI because we've saturated all the evals, and you need to get proximate to the problems.

所以，我正在关注的就是这类公司。

So that's it's it's those companies that that I'm I'm paying attention to.

很有趣。

Fascinating.

所以，这是一个例子。

So this is, you know, this is an example.

这就像说，嘿。

This would be like, hey.

你正在进入一家具有规模和高效运转机制的运营公司，要么收购它，要么深入其中，使其成为更高效的引擎。

You're going and either acquiring or or or going inside an operating firm that has scale and and and a humming engine and making that a more efficient engine.

是的，或者你只是为那些面临真正棘手问题的客户做合同工作，真正投入进去解决问题。

Yeah, or just like you're doing contracts for customers that have really hard problems and you're actually going in and committing to solving the problem.

因为结果导向。

Because outcomes.

是的。

Yeah.

因为我认为我们在数学和编程方面取得了如此多进展，但在其他许多领域却没有的原因就在这里。

Because there's a reason I think that we've made so much progress on math and coding, but not on many other domains.

因为这些领域是我们贴近的。

Because those are domains we are proximate to.

我们这些在实验室工作的人。

We as people who work in labs.

还有许多其他领域，我们并不那么贴近。

There's all kinds of other domains that we are not as proximate to.

如果你能贴近问题，我认为你可以打造出具有变革性的东西。

If you get proximate, I think you can build something transformative.

我认为现在这更重要了，正是因为那些简单的问题已经被解决了。

I think this is more important now precisely because the easy problems have been solved.

那些显而易见的问题已经被模型解决了。

The obvious problems have been solved by the models.

必须承认，Notebook LM 非常出色且独具特色，它帮助我学习新东西，我觉得它很棒。

Credit where credit is due, I think Notebook LM is awesome and differentiated and helps I me learn new think it's great.

它真的太好了。

It's so good.

它真的太好了。

It's so good.

我认为这就是一个例子：你可以创新，可以打造出完全不同的东西。

I think this is the example of you can innovate and you can build something totally different.

它太棒了。

It's awesome.

是的，是的，是的。

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

它非常好，特别是对于我来说，在进行一些更技术性的学习时，它是一种非常易上手的方式，完全如此，

It's so good, particularly for, I found it for some more technical learning to be a very approachable way to Totally,

而且这真的很酷。

and it's really cool.

我觉得人工智能被低估的一项能力，就是将事物转换成不同的媒介。

I feel like AI, an underrated capability of AI is to just transform things into a different medium.

我觉得这对学习来说非常重要。

And I think that's so important for learning.

我们刚刚推出了动态数学模块，让你能在聊天机器人中直观地理解数学。

We just launched these dynamic math blocks which allow you to visually understand math inside ChatGPT.

学习显然是我们的一个主要使用场景，我认为能够将事物从文本转换为视觉，未来再从视觉转换为视频，所有这些不同的媒介形式都太棒了，因为人们的认知方式各不相同，有些人是听觉型学习者，有些人是视觉型，有些人喜欢阅读。

Learning is obviously a big And use case for us I think just being able to transform things from text to visual, soon from visual to video, like all these different media is amazing because people have such different ways of processing information and some people are like auditory learners, some people are visual, some people like reading.

所以我觉得这非常神奇，也是一个绝佳的切入点。

So I think that's really magical and a great great angle to take.

是的。

Yeah.

太棒了。

Amazing.

太棒了。

Amazing.

太棒了。

Amazing.

你知道吗，我经常思考的一个问题是如今学校里孩子们的教育。

You know, one of the things I think about a lot is education and education for kids now in school.

世界变化得太快了。

The world's changing so fast.

我不确定我们的教育体系是否跟得上这么快的变化。

I'm not sure our education system is changing that fast.

对于那些身处学校、可能需要比周围体系更快适应的学生，你有什么建议？

What advice would you have for students who are in school now who might have to adapt faster than the system around them might adapt?

这是个非常好的问题，我自己也思考过很多。

It's a really good question and something that I've thought a lot about myself.

我认为，在这个时代最重要的永久技能是好奇心，因为如果机器能回答你所有的问题，那你最好能提出好问题。

And, you know, the I think the most important perma skill in this era is curiosity, think, because if the machine can answer all your questions, you better have good questions.

而要提出好问题，唯一的方法就是持续追求那些你从年幼时就真正感兴趣的事情，并贯穿你的一生。

And the only way to have good questions, think, is to pursue the things you were actually excited about from an early age and throughout your entire life.

并且要不断反思，因为我现在在这里从事这些工作，唯一的原因是我当初在面试过程中被这些内容深深吸引，觉得太酷了。

And reflect on this because the only reason I'm here and working on this stuff is because I thought it was neat when I got, you know, nerd sniped in in the interview process.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

And it's like That's right.

这太棒了。

This is so cool.

所以，无论你做什么，我认为这种能力都很重要：保持好奇心，学会持续好奇。我相信，只要你培养了这种能力，你就知道如何适应不断变化的工具、人工智能和职业环境。

And and so no matter what you're doing, I think that's an important skill is to be curious and learn to stay curious, and I think I'm confident that if you foster that skill you will know how to adapt to an evolving landscape of tools and AIs and jobs.

所以这就是我的建议。

So that would be my advice.

是的，好奇心一直是持久的技能。

Yeah, curiosity has always been the permascale.

我们的朋友比尔·吉雷利在他的书《Running Down a Dream》中写过这个话题，但好奇心你会...

Our friend Bill Girley wrote about it in his book Running Down a Dream, but curiosity You'll

你得去看看这本书。

have to check that out.

对。

Yeah.

在AI和通用人工智能越来越强大的背景下，哪种工作会变得更有价值，而不是更不重要？

What is a job that gets more valuable, not less, as AI gets better as AGI arrives?

嗯，我认为一个简单的答案是成为企业家，因为现在是实现你想法的最佳时机。

Well, I think maybe the easy answer is being an entrepreneur because it's the best time to build ever in terms of being able to self actualize your idea.

但也许一个不太明显的答案是，我认为写作其实非常重要。

But maybe one that is maybe non obvious is I think writing actually is very important.

这并不是因为AI不会写作。

And it's not because the AI can't write.

AI在写作方面会变得非常出色，就像在其他任何领域一样，但我认为写作这项技能能迫使你清晰地表达自己的想法。

AI will become amazing at writing just like any other domains, but because I think the skill of writing forces you to be very clear of what you have to say.

尽管提示工程显然正在消失，在很大程度上已经不再必要，但向机器表达你想要什么的能力，仍然要求你是一个相当优秀的、非常精确的写作者。

And even though prompt engineering is obviously going to go away and has gone away to much extent, The idea of expressing what you want to a machine requires you to be a pretty good writer and a very precise writer.

因此，我认为任何需要清晰写作和由此带来的清晰思考的职业，都会发展得很好。

So I would say that in any profession that involves very clear writing and therefore thinking I think is well set up.

是的，完全正确。

Yeah, 100%.

说实话，这正是关于‘懒惰’的全部意义，对吧？

Honestly, I mean this is the whole thing about Sloth, right?

现在有太多AI了。

There's just so much AI.

这正是另一件事。

That's the other thing.

我认为高质量、可信赖、权威的内容将长期存在需求，像ChatGPT这样的工具可以帮助你发现这些内容，但我相信对卓越内容的需求也将持续下去。

I think there's going to be a permanent need for high quality, trusted, authoritative content and tools like ChatGPT can help you discover that content, but I think the need for amazing content is also here to stay.

最后一个问题，你什么时候感受到AGI的时刻？

And final question, what has been your AGI, feel the AGI moment?

你是什么时候感觉到的？

When did you feel it?

我经历过很多次，而且这种感觉绝对没有停止。

I've had so many honestly, and it's definitely not stopped.

我加入OpenAI几周后，GPT-4完成了训练。

A few weeks or so after I joined OpenAI GPT-four had finished training.

我记得当时试用它，结果完全没让我印象深刻，那一周其他人也都没觉得怎么样，因为它根本没法正常工作。

And I remember trying it out and it actually didn't impress me at all, nor anyone else that week, because it kind of didn't work.

这是因为我们还没搞清楚如何进行后训练，而我当时看到它从‘这真的算回事吗？还是说GPT-3才是真正的突破？’

And it's because we hadn't figured out how to post train it, and I think seeing it go from kind of, wait, is this really a thing or was GPT-three kind of it?

转变为‘天啊，这简直是质的飞跃’，而那时的我完全不懂AI，还以为只是些小调整或最后的打磨工作。

To wow, actually this is an entire step change with what felt to me at the time, who didn't understand much about AI at all, like some tweaks or some little bit of final stretch work.

这让人深深感到谦卑，因为你可能会意识到，虽然表面上看我们离真正强大而有用的AI似乎还很远，但其实我们可能已经很接近了。

It was profoundly humbling because you can realize that you might, it might not look like we are close Yeah.

离真正强大而有用的AI，但我们可能已经很接近了。

To really powerful, useful AI, but we probably are.

是的。

Yeah.

然后，真正让我觉得那就是AGI的时刻，有两件事是GPT-4做到的。

And then the moment that, you know, really you know, there was two things that g b d four did that felt like AGI to me.

对。

Yeah.

一是它能写诗，而我原本认为任何模型都不可能写出诗歌。

One is they could do poetry, and I didn't think it was possible for any model to do poetry.

这在根本上、哲学上来说，根本不可能做到。

It just kind of fundamental, philosophically.

感觉完全超出了能力范围。

It just didn't feel like in scope.

另一个是它能生成实际能运行和编译的代码。

And then the other one was it could produce code that actually worked and compiled.

我下一个感到震撼、仰望天花板的时刻，是我意识到GPT-4能够模拟整个计算机终端。

And then my next moment where I stared at the ceiling just in awe was when I realized GPT-four could just simulate an entire computer terminal.

就像一个包含各种命令的完整计算机。

Like a full computer with commands, etcetera.

我当时想，等等，这种能力是怎么被融入语言模型的？

And I'm like, wait, how would this be imbued in a language model?

从那以后，其实已经经历了太多这样的时刻，推理能力就是一个。

There's been so many moments since then honestly, reasoning was a moment.

其中一个时刻是，我记得我和马克在公司全体面前演示推理功能时。

One of the moments was when I think Mark and I were giving a demo of reasoning in front of the whole company.

那时我们还在努力寻找足够困难的用例，让推理团队能够发挥价值。

This was a moment where we were still trying to find use cases that were hard enough for the reasoning team to make a difference.

我们现在早已超越了那个阶段。

We're way past that point.

我们知道。

We know.

但当时，我觉得我们得在所有人面前解一个谜题。

But at the time, I think we were having to do a puzzle in front of everyone.

其中一个让我完全感受到AGI存在的时刻是，我们在演示过程中，大家都笑起来了。

And think I one of the moments that made me totally feel the AGI is like, we were in the middle of the demo and everyone started laughing.

我当时想，等等，有什么好笑的？

I was like, wait, what what is funny?

然后我盯着屏幕，因为我们正在展示模型输出的思维链。

And then I stared at the screen because we're showing this chain of thought as it was streaming out of the model.

模型骂了一句：‘该死。’

And the model swore and said like, oh, damn it.

它可能需要调整，因为它意识到自己在谜题中犯了错误。

May have to adjust because it realized it had made a mistake in the puzzle.

它这样做的事实，尤其是这种行为完全是从强化学习过程中自发涌现出来的，这让我大为震惊，也让我对这些模型还能做到什么感到无比谦卑。

And the fact that it did that, but in particular the fact that it did that in a way that was entirely emergent from the, you know, RL process completely blew my mind and, you know, made me, you know, feel feel quite humble about what else these models might be able to do.

所以那是其中一个时刻。

So that was one of those moments.

是的。

Yeah.

然后最近，我观察人们使用代码工具。

And then most recently, watching people use codecs.

比如看着人们带着打开的电脑四处走动，因为他们不想让任务结束。

Like watching people have walk around with their computer open, because they don't want the task to end.

是的。

Yeah.

看着从未写过代码的人创造出东西，让想法成真，这感觉就像AGI。

Watching people who have never coded in their life make stuff and bring ideas, to life, that feel feels like an AGM.

老实说，对我而言，这一切正在加速，而且丝毫没有减退，每个人关注的点当然不同，但这些是我认为值得分享的。

Honestly it's just accelerating for me and it doesn't wear off at all, and everyone has a different thing obviously, but those are worth some of mine.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道吗，十年前有一个叫Kite的产品。

Know it's ten years ago there was a product called Kite.

不知道你是否记得，它是为软件工程师设计的，像个AI编程工具。

Don't know if you remember it was for software engineers, was like an AI coding product.

那时我感受到了对个人AI的渴望，但接下来十年什么都没发生，而最近十个月却一切突然爆发了。

That's when I felt the hunger for personal AI, and nothing happened for ten years, and then everything happened for the last ten months.

时机真的很难把握，因为从产品形态的角度来看，你其实相当容易预测它们最终会变成什么样。

The timing thing is really hard because it's actually quite possible to predict where things will end up, I think, in terms of the kind of product form factors you're going have.

但要准确判断它何时发生，对我来说很难对‘最终’和‘三个月内’之间的任何时间点做出判断，因为其中充满了不确定性。

But to know when it happens, it's really hard for me to make statements on anything between of eventually and in three months because of all the ambiguity around.

嗯，这个时间窗口已经够紧了。

Well, that's a tight enough window.

现在三个月内已经是个很紧的时间窗口了。

Now in three months is a tight enough window.

三个月还挺不错的。

Three months is pretty okay.

尽量坚持三个月的计划。

Try to stick to the three month plan more or less.

不过，你知道，我的团队可能会告诉我我们做不到，但我还是会努力。

Though, you know, my team would probably tell me we don't, but I try.

但介于三个月和最终实现之间的任何时间点都很困难。

But, yeah, anything in between three months and eventually is is difficult.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

好。

Yeah.

谢谢你们做这件事。

Well, thanks for doing it.

你手头有很多事情要处理。

You've got a lot going on.

这真是个极大的享受。

This was a total treat.

我们非常兴奋能看到你们为我们发布的所有优秀产品。

We're so excited to see all the great products you released for us.

如果今后有任何能帮上忙的地方，请告诉我们。

And if ever can do anything to be of help, let us know.

太棒了，非常感谢你邀请我。

Awesome, thanks very much, thanks for having me.

当然，这很有趣。

Of course, this was fun.

提醒大家一下，这只是我们的个人观点，并非投资建议。

As a reminder to everybody, just our opinions, not investment

建议。

advice.