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如果你我希望赢得冠军并打造一支冠军级别的篮球队，就不应该在意篮球运动员来自世界哪个地方。
And if you and I wanna win championships and build a championship basketball team, we should not care where in the world the basketball player comes from.
我们只需要把最好的球员招入队中以赢得冠军，对待人工智能和技术也应采取同样的态度。
We just need to get the best players on our team to win the championship, and we ought to take the same approach to AI and technology.
嘿，比尔。
Hey, Bill.
很高兴见到你。
Great to see you.
布拉德，你最近怎么样？
Brad, how are doing, man?
我很好。
I'm doing great.
我很好。
I'm doing great.
你知道吗，这个周末我要回波士顿参加我的哈佛商学院二十五周年同学会。
You know, I'm heading back to Boston this weekend for my twenty fifth HBS reunion.
25年。
'25.
这太疯狂了。
I I it's it's crazy.
我的意思是，你比我老多了，但我真的不敢相信已经过去二十五年了。
I mean, you're old you're way older than me, but, you you know, I I I can't believe it's twenty five years.
而且我正在准备一个关于当今人工智能发展状况的演讲。
And and I'm doing this talk on what's happening in AI, you know, these days.
有很多问题和比较。
And there's a lot of questions about and comparisons.
因为记得，我们经历过99年到2000年左右的繁荣期，所以很多同学都在想知道，人工智能是不是又像那时一样了。
Because remember, we were there during the ninety nine, two thousand kind of boom And so a lot of my classmates are wondering whether or not AI is kind of like that again.
于是我回去整理这些幻灯片，不得不说，有几件事真的让我震惊了。
And so I was going back and pulling together these slides, and I have to say a few things just shocked me, frankly.
比如，我都忘了变化有多大了。
Like, I forgot how much has changed.
其中一个是我正在对亚马逊进行分析。
One was I was doing I was looking and doing some analysis on Amazon.
你知道，那时候我躲在教室后面做亚马逊的日内交易，而你则在外面忙IPO。
You know, I was day trading Amazon out of the back of the classroom back then, and you were out here working on the IPO.
我知道你关注着1998年、1999年和2000年的股价。
I know you were paying attention to what the share price was in '98, '99, and 2000.
有几个有趣的地方。
And a couple interesting points.
对吧？
Right?
亚马逊，如果你还记得的话，比尔，我知道你记得，1998年股价曾涨到每股243美元。
Amazon, if you recall, Bill, and I know you do, it peaked at $243 a share in 1998.
但在2000年初，股价是每股150美元。
But at the start of 2000, it's at $150 a share.
明白吗？
Okay?
亨利·布洛盖特做出了著名的预测。
And Henry Blodgett famously makes the call.
他预测股价将达到每股400美元。
He calls $400 a share.
他几乎就在2000年的高点做了预测，随后股价暴跌，跌至约每股26美元。
And he literally kind of top ticks it from the year 2000 and the thing plummets and goes down to about $26 a share.
对吧？
Right?
他因此遭到嘲笑和各种批评。
And he gets ridiculed and and and all this stuff.
但我想说的是，它上市时是17美元，然后破发了。
But I wanna It make went it went public at 17 and broke issue.
是的。
Yes.
哇。
Wow.
哇。
Wow.
所以它在发行价下方交易了大约两个月。
So it traded under under issue for about two months.
对。
Right.
我敢肯定，你没有接到公司任何关于到底发生了什么的电话。
And I I'm sure you didn't get any calls from the company about what the f was going on.
但最疯狂的是。
But here's the crazy thing.
对吧？
Right?
记得他因为做出那个预测而遭到嘲笑。
Remember, he gets ridiculed for making that call.
所以我想知道，于是我去找我们的ChatGPT朋友帮我做了一些拆股调整后的计算。
So I wanted to know, and I went and asked asked our chat GBT friend to help me with some split adjusted math on this.
所以，从2000年的高点150美元按拆股调整后，相当于今天大约47美分。
So split adjusted from the high in 2000, which was this 150, that's equivalent to about 47¢ split adjusted today.
所以，相比2000年的价格，它上涨了大约4.40美元。
So it's up about $4.40 X from where it was in 2000.
而从2000年的低点按拆股调整后，它上涨了约1800倍。
And on a split adjusted basis from the low in 2000, it's up about 1,800 x.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，这些数字太惊人了。
I mean, those are shocking numbers.
所以，这是我们当时意识到的一件事。
And so that was one of the things that dawned us.
于是我问，自我们毕业以来，纳斯达克指数发生了什么变化？
So I said, well, what's happened to the Nasdaq since we graduated?
嗯，从2000年的峰值算起，纳斯达克至今仍上涨了五倍。
Well, from the peak in 2000, the Nasdaq is still up five X.
而从2000年的低谷算起，它上涨了10倍。
And from the trough in 2000, it's up 10 X.
所以我一直在想，笑点在哪里呢？
And so I was thinking, you know, what's the punchline?
笑点是，我们当时是一群充满幻想、志向远大的人。
The punchline is, you know, we were a bunch of dreamy eyed, big, know, big thinkers.
我们以为自己对互联网了如指掌。
We thought we knew everything about the internet.
我们知道它将永远改变世界。
We knew it was going to change the world forever.
结果发现，我们高估了它在短期内能实现的成就，对吧？
And it turns out we overestimated what it was going to do in the short term, right?
在未来两到三年里，普及速度比预期慢。
Over the next two to three years, adoption was slower.
我们经历了2001年的恐怖袭击。
We had the terrorist attacks in 2001.
我们经历了经济衰退。
We had an economic recession.
所以事情的增长确实慢了下来。
So things definitely grew slower.
但最大的问题是，当时连接到高速互联网的人并不多。
But the biggest problem was there just weren't that many people connected to a high speed internet.
因此，我们曾经梦想的一切在当时都难以高效实现。
So all the things we dreamed of occurring were just inefficient to happen at that time.
但比这更令人惊讶的是，比尔，我们对长期影响的低估有多么严重。
But what's probably even more surprising, Bill, is how dramatically we underestimated the long term.
在接下来的二十到二十五年里，实际发展远远超出了我们对这些公司规模的所有预测和估算。
Over the next twenty to twenty five years, it blew away all of our estimates and forecasts in terms of how big these companies would be.
所以现在，我们正站在人工智能时代的黎明之际，我想人们正在提出许多类似的问题，但对我而言，这可能是二十五年反思中最大的启示。
And so now we sit here at, you know, kind of the dawn of the age of AI, and I think people are asking a lot of these same questions, but, you know, that was probably the biggest punchline on my twenty five year reflection.
好吧。
All right.
嗯，如果他们听播客，可能会错过你的演讲。
Well, if they listen to the podcast, they're gonna miss your talk maybe.
也许，谈到AI的这种发展速度，你和我最近一直在交流一些关于世界战略变化的事情。
Maybe, you know, talking about this pace of AI, you and I were sending some things back and forth just about some strategic shifts going on in the world.
跟我们讲讲这些变化。
Talk us through that.
当然，我的意思是，AI的发展速度依然快得惊人。
Well, obviously, I mean, the pace continues like crazy.
每次，你知道，我们做播客的间隔大约是两到三周，但每次都有新的消息不断涌现。
Every time, you know, every between just the podcast episodes we do, which are about two to three weeks, there's new news always and constantly.
很难跟上这些进展，但我还是会努力关注那些在我脑海中引起警觉、具有战略意义的动向。
And it's hard to keep it's hard to keep up with it, but I do try and pay attention to the stuff that spikes in my brain as being strategic and something you should really pay attention to.
在过去一周里，我注意到了一件非常近期的事情，我称之为‘数据壁垒’。
And one thing that that I've seen in the past week, so this is very recent, is what I might call data walls.
现在人人都认识到了AI的价值。
And so everyone's recognizing the value of AI.
每个人都希望利用AI处理自己的数据，希望用AI让自己的产品用户感到惊艳。
Everybody wants to have AI work against their data, against, you know, and everybody wants to wow the consumer or the customer of their product.
但突然间，我们看到有人开始试图封锁数据。
And so all of a sudden though, we're seeing, you know, things pop up where people are trying to wall off data.
举个例子，Reddit今天早上尽管之前有协议，还是起诉了Anthropic。
And, you know, one example would be Reddit just sued Anthropic this morning despite having a deal.
所以值得深入分析一下其中的细节。
So it'd be interesting to unpack what's in there.
我认为Windsurf和Anthropic之间发生了争执，Anthropic切断了对他们的所有模型访问。
I think there's a tiff between Windsurf and Anthropic, where Anthropic cut off cut them off to all their models.
你知道，Windsurf被OpenAI收购了。
You know, Windsurf was bought by OpenAI.
这并不令人意外，但看到这些数据壁垒纷纷出现。
Not that surprising, but just seeing these walls pop up.
我认为在企业场景中更有趣的是，Salesforce修改了其服务条款，不仅涵盖了CRM数据，还包括了Slack数据——而Slack正是他们收购的公司。
I think a more interesting one in the enterprise case is Salesforce changed their terms of service and in a way that includes not only the CRM data, but Slack data, which, you know, is a company they bought.
他们还在上面添加了一个MCP连接器，允许AI查询它。
And they're putting an MCP connector on top of it, which allows AI to query it.
但他们表示，你不能用其中的数据进行训练。
But they're telling they're saying that you can't train on the data that's in there.
等一下。
Hold on a second.
所以Altimeter的Slack数据，我不能用我自己的数据进行训练？
So Altimeter Slack data, I can't train on my own data?
服务条款的修改就是这么说的。
That's what the change in the terms of service say.
你可以查询，是的。
You can query Yeah.
我认为，我们可能会开始将企业应用分为开放数据和封闭数据两类，人们需要明确声明自己的数据类型。
In the I think it's, you know, I think maybe we'll start to talk about enterprise applications as either being open data or closed data, and people are gonna need to declare that.
但我的猜测是，如果你是Salesforce的竞争对手，你会立即声明自己是开放数据，以尽可能多地吸引客户。
But my guess is that if you're a competitor to Salesforce, you're immediately gonna declare yourself open data and try and steal as many customers as possible.
我无法想象，如果我花7.08美元的许可费购买了Salesforce的服务，却被告知不能用我自己的数据进行训练——而这些数据几乎涵盖了我所有客户的信息以及我想分析的一切，我会有多愤怒。
I can't fathom in my own brain how upset I would be if I were paying $7.08 figure license to Salesforce and they told me I couldn't train on my own on my own data, which is basically everything about my customers and everything that I would want to analyze.
我相信他们肯定会用这些数据进行训练，并向你提供他们的AI代理视角，这正是他们这么做的原因。
Now I'm sure they're gonna train on it and give you their AI agentic view of it, which is why they're doing this.
但战线正在拉开，你知道的，就像那首老歌里唱的那样。
But but battle lines are being drawn, you know, going back to the old song.
你知道，比尔，你没提到的一点是，我刚看到我们的朋友凯文·韦尔在推特上说，Deep Research现在可以跨GitHub、Google文档、Gmail、Outlook、HubSpot和Dropbox进行搜索了。
You know, and one of the things you didn't mention, Bill, I just saw Kevin Weil, our friend, tweeted from OpenAI that deep research is now searching across GitHub, Google Docs, Gmail, Outlook, HubSpot, Dropbox.
现在我认为其中很多都用到了MCP，但我也同意你的观点，这一切似乎正在加速发生，而不是放缓。
Now I think a lot of that's using MCP, but, you know, I do agree with you that this all seems to be happening faster rather than slower.
这让我想起，当年你和我坐在Zillow董事会会议上，讨论人们如何在Google之上构建依赖关系。
You know, it reminds me, you and I back in the day sitting in a Zillow board meeting and talking about build people building dependencies on Google.
你当时非常认同我的看法。
And you were very much in in aligned with you.
你不能在Google的底层构建品牌，因为随着时间推移，他们最终一定会夺回这片领域。
You can't build a brand in the underbelly of Google because over time they will have to take that territory back.
对吧？
Right?
我记得TripAdvisor在Google的底层构建了搜索引擎和推荐引擎时，估值曾达到200亿美元。
And I remember TripAdvisor peaked at $20,000,000,000 in value building a search engine, a recommendation engine in the underbelly of Google.
当谷歌决定自己做推荐时，TripAdvisor的估值从200亿美元暴跌至10亿美元。
And then when Google decided it was time to do recommendations on its own, TripAdvisor's value went from 20,000,000,000 to 1,000,000,000.
但这件事是经过多年才发生的，比尔。
And, you know, but that happened over a period of many, many years, Bill.
而我在这里看到的情况，部分是因为AI的发展速度远超当年的互联网。
And what I see happening here is kind of in in in part because AI is going so much faster than the Internet did.
对吧？
Right?
这周我看到我们团队做的一项分析，即将发布：OpenAI在八年时间内就实现了4000亿次年搜索量，比谷歌快了八年。
I did I saw some analysis from my team this week will post that OpenAI reached, you know, 400,000,000,000 annual searches, eight years faster than Google.
对吧？
Right?
所以他们现在每天的搜索量超过十亿次。
So they're doing over a billion searches a day now.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
所以所有这些都在以超高速发生。
So all of this is happening in hyper speed.
因此，这些公司都在进行战略部署，试图垂直整合，关闭对数据的访问，因为他们都知道，必须通过提供完整的全栈服务来实现盈利。
And so the strategic plays by all of these companies to vertically integrate, to shut down, you know, access to data because they all know that they need to monetize by kind of offering that full stack.
所以，对我来说，这对这些公司来说是个关键问题。
And so, you know, that to me is is something for these companies.
当你看Windsurf时，他们必须自建模型。
When you look at Windsurf, they're gonna have to build their own models.
当你看Cursor时，他们也在自建模型。
When you look at Cursor, they're building their own models.
对吧？
Right?
对这些不同的开源模型的依赖，我觉得正在发生很大的变化。
The dependencies on on, you know, kind of all of these different open models, I think, is, know, is changing very well.
而且我敢肯定，Anthropic 在听到 Windsurf 的公告后，立刻意识到：哦，等等，OpenAI 正在进军垂直领域，而我们擅长编程。
Well, and I'm sure Anthropic, you know, woke up on the Windsurf announcement and said, oh, wait, you know, OpenAI is going into verticals, like, and and we're good at coding.
那我们该怎么看待这个问题呢？
So how do we think about this?
是的，这确实是一次重新洗牌。
And yeah, I mean, it's a reordering.
我认为人们真的需要关注数据这个问题。
I think people really need to pay attention to this data thing.
如果你看看 OpenAI 想在消费者端走向何方——访问你的联系人、日历、邮件，这些都会变得至关重要。
If you look at where OpenAI wants to go on the consumer access to your contacts, your your calendar, your mail, like all that's gonna matter.
你会希望你的个人助手能够做到这些。
And you're gonna want your personal assistant to be able to do that.
无论谁拥有这些系统，无论他们是否试图阻止访问，都将非常有趣。
And whoever owns those systems, whether or not they try to block access to it or not, will be interesting.
你知道，谷歌的优势在于他们拥有自己的手机平台、自己的Gmail平台，以及自己的办公套件替代品。
You know, Google has an advantage in that they own, you know, they own their own phone platform and they own their own Gmail platform and they own their own alternative to the office stack.
因此，他们应该能够将这一点转化为竞争优势。
And so, you know, they should be able to make that a competitive advantage.
但你知道，他们是否愿意筑起一道墙，说：开放吧，我不能清理这些数据。
But, you know, whether or not they'll be willing to put up a wall and say, open it, I can't scrub this.
这一切都将非常有趣。
It'll it'll all be very interesting.
这是值得密切关注的事情。
It's something that's super important to watch.
我的意思是，我在听。
I mean, I listen.
我认为这将是一个糟糕的发展。
I think it would it would be a bad development.
对吧？
Right?
你知道，我认为你和我都同意MCP是一个好的发展，有助于开放更多访问。
You know, I think you and I both agree that MCP is a good development and allowing more open access.
归根结底，这些数据应该是我的。
At the end of the day, it should be my data.
这是我的Gmail，对吧？我可是为此付费的。
It's my Gmail, right, that I'm paying for.
这是我创建并付费的Google文档。
It's it's it's it's my Google Docs that I'm creating and I'm paying for.
所以如果你告诉我，我不能使用我选择的AI来访问这些信息，以改善我的生活、回答问题，那将会引发大量混乱。
And so if you tell me that I'm not going to be able to use my AI of choice, right, accessing this information to make my life better to answer questions, that, you know, that will lead to a lot of disruption.
但这就是问题所在。
So but that is the question.
对吧？
Right?
因为这里有一项深度研究今天宣布，他们将代表我使用MCP访问所有这些内容，这让我非常兴奋。
Because here we have deep research announcing today that they're gonna access all those things using MCP on my behalf, which I'm excited about.
对吧？
Right?
因为我一直在使用所有这些谷歌服务，但我很喜欢这个想法：让ChatGPT利用大量关于我的记忆来访问这些服务。
Because I am using all of those Google services, but I do like the idea of using ChatGPT that has a lot of buildup memory about me to access those services.
所以我认为，你和我肯定会坚定地站在保持这一切开放的一边，但我们确实也看到了一些早期预警信号，有人正在关闭生态系统，以保护某些优势。
So I think you and I will certainly be loud and proud on the side of keeping this all open, but we definitely see some early warning signs here of people closing down the ecosystem, you know, in order to try to protect some of those some of those advantages.
另一个话题，比尔，我们已经谈了很多关于中国的事。
Another topic, Bill, you know, we've talked a lot about China.
从我的角度来看，过去几个月我们的对话中一个有趣的部分是，中国在机器人、汽车、电池、精密制造、深海技术等领域表现得多么出色，这些领域仿佛凭空崛起，华为也在迅速研发出能追赶上的芯片。
And one of the interesting parts of our dialogue from my perspective over the course of the last few months is just how well China is doing in robots, in autos, in batteries, in precision manufacturing, deep sea coming out of nowhere, Huawei building, you know, chips that are catching up very quickly.
但你这周发给我这份研究，真的很有启发性，因为它谈到了‘百花齐放’，说明他们是如何真正培育这些产业的。
But you sent me this piece of research this week, and it's really enlightening because, you know, it talks about let a thousand flowers bloom, like how they've in fact seeded these industries.
我们或许能从中学到一些东西。
There's probably some stuff we could learn here.
所以，比尔，给我详细解释一下。
So unpack it for me, Bill.
为什么这会如此成功？
Why has this been so successful?
是的。
Yeah.
顺便说一下，我让ChatGPT做了这个分析。
And for the record, I had chat GBT do the analysis.
它是4.5版本，每月200美元的那个版本。
It was version 4.5, the $200 a month version.
这是一份非常出色的调研报告。
It's an amazing piece of research.
我想它可能有些错误，但我们会发布出来，让所有人都能看到。
I, I guess it could have some errors in it, but I would, we're gonna post it so everybody can see it.
但没错，我认为我们必须彻底理解中国为何在这么多行业中如此有竞争力，以及是什么促成了他们的成功。
But yes, I think it's imperative that we understand exactly why China's so competitive in so many industries and what led them to be successful.
我所发现的是，虽然过去也听其他人提到过，但我真正深入挖掘的细节是，在他们想要成功的行业中，他们实际上会确保有五百甚至一千家竞争对手。
And what I uncovered, and I had heard this from a few other people in the past, but what I really uncovered the detail on is that in these industries where they wanna succeed, they actually make sure that there are 500 competitors or a thousand competitors.
然后让市场逐步淘汰，最终留下最优秀的企业。
And then they let the market whittle down to what the best one is.
因此，我们可能有一种误解，认为共产主义或威权政府会扶持一家资金有限、缺乏竞争力的国营公司。
So rather than I think we have a perception that communist or authoritarian governments have a sting, little state sponsored company that's not very competitive.
但这并不是他们真正的做法。
That's not what they're doing.
他们采取的是完全不同的策略。
They're doing something very different.
他们让企业家精神和达尔文式的竞争、适者生存机制，自然筛选出最终存活下来的五家赢家。
They're They're letting entrepreneurism and kind of a Darwinian competition and survival of the fittest, you know, create these, the five companies that survive all of that as winners.
我们都明白，因为我们信奉资本主义，这种体系最终会让最优秀的企业脱颖而出。
And we all know because we believe in capitalism that that has, you know, that kind of system will lead to the very best shining at the end of the day.
这很有趣，比尔，因为你知道，你和我成长的过程中，一直认为苏联模式是政府指定一个国家机构。
Well, it's interesting, Bill, because, you know, you and I grew up kind of with this model in, you know, Soviet Russia where they picked a state actor.
我们赢得冷战的部分原因在于他们把自己搞破产了。
And part of the reason we won the Cold War is they bankrupted themselves.
所有这些国家主导的企业都很糟糕。
All those state actors were terrible.
它们效率低下。
They were inefficient.
它们充斥着欺诈行为。
They were full of grift.
它们无法竞争。
They couldn't compete.
它们的产品根本不好。
Their products weren't any good.
但我们看到中国的情况完全相反。
But we see the exact opposite out of China.
我们看到的产品具有全球竞争力，许多在这些不同行业中比美国的产品更优秀。
We see products that are globally competitive, you know, and many that are in in these different industries better than The US.
所以，尽管我们将两者都称为共产主义体系，但他们一定在某些系统性和结构性方面有所不同。
So there has to be something systematic and structurally different that they're doing, even though we refer to them as both both of them as communist systems.
没错。
Correct.
而且，你知道，我一生都在研究这类体系，我之前也提过，我是圣塔菲研究所的董事会成员，如果有人在我知道他们这么做之前告诉我他们在进行这种达尔文式竞争，我会说，嗯，这可能真的有效。
And and I you know, I've I've studied these types of systems my whole life, and, you know, I've mentioned before that I'm on the board of the Santa Fe Institute, and this kind of Darwinian competition is exactly the kind of thing that I would if you told me they were doing this before they did it, I'd say, well, that that might actually work.
对吧？
Right?
这种做法对我来说很合理，确实有效。
Like that's this is sensible to me that this works.
除了帮助识别胜出者之外，这种方式还带来了一些其他好处。
One one thing that came out of it in addition to just help helping to identify winners, you know, there's a couple of other benefits you get from this.
首先，你接触到了更多的可能性，因为有500家初创公司会尝试各种不同的方法。
One, you're exposed to way more optionality because 500 startups will try a bunch of different approaches.
在过去的几周里，我发现中国的激光雷达是固态的，其设计与Waymo所使用的激光雷达截然不同。
And one one thing I've uncovered in the past few weeks is Chinese LiDAR is solid state and designed very differently than the LiDAR that Waymo's using.
而目前在中国，这种固态MEMS激光雷达的价格大约为每辆车130美元，而Waymo的激光雷达则高达每辆车5000美元。
And it's actually in China right now is, I think being priced at like $130 a car, this solid state MEMS LiDAR, whereas the Waymo LiDAR is like $5,000 a car.
由于这种竞争方式，你们最终会走向完全不同的结果。
You end up in completely different places because of this type of competition.
而且有这么多人在尝试不同的方法。
And you have this many people trying different things.
另一个重要的结果是，你的供应链会发展得更加稳健，因为如果我是一个为太阳能板或电动汽车提供关键零部件的供应商，现在我面对的是五六十甚至上百个竞争对手。
And then the other big thing that happens is your supply chain develops in a lot more robust way, because if I'm a supplier, you know, to, you know, a part that's important to a solar panel or to an EV, I now have, you know, 50 or a 100 competitors.
因此，这也会催生出更多针对这些零部件的竞争对手。
So you end up and that births more and more competitors for that part as well.
所以，你在每一个环节都会拥有更多参与者，从而形成一个更加稳健的供应链。
And so you end up with a much more robust supply chain, more players at each each step along the way.
我认为，这项研究的数据表明，这正是中国在电动汽车领域如此成功的原因——中国有超过500家电动汽车初创公司，而美国只有500家。
And I, you know, I think the data suggest in this this piece of research would suggest that's why they've been so successful in EVs where there were over 500 EV startups, 500 in The US.
那美国有多少家呢？
What has there been?
四个合法的？
Four legitimate ones?
一小部分。
A handful.
这是我的问题。
So here's my question.
对吧？
Right?
在硅谷，我们有一个充满活力的风险资本生态系统。
In Silicon Valley, we have this dynamic ecosystem of risk capital.
我们可能是第四代或第五代风险资本和风险承担者。
We're probably, I don't know, fourth, fifth generation of risk capital and risk takers.
他们彼此找到对方。
They find each other.
在这方面，政府的介入或协调并不多。
There's not a lot of government interaction or coordination with regard to that.
你知道吗？
You know?
它就这么自然而然地发生了。
It it it just kind of happens.
我们在说什么？
What are we saying?
这个生态系统到底是怎么发展起来的？
Like, like, how is is this ecosystem developed?
中国当然也有风险投资，但在我看来，相比美国存在的风险投资规模，尤其是过去四五年里生态系统的紧密程度已经大幅下降，因为许多美国的投资方已经从中国撤资了。
There's definitely venture capital in China, but it seems to me as a fraction of the venture capital that that exists in the in in The US or certainly the tightness of the ecosystem over the course of the last four or five years has been reduced dramatically because a lot of The US players, right, backed off from China.
那么，是各个省市在提供种子资金或补贴，来推动这500家初创企业起步吗？
So is it the the different states and provinces that are seeding or subsidizing to get these 500 startups rolling?
它们到底是怎么启动的？
Like, how are they getting going?
是的。
Yeah.
嗯。
Yeah.
所以政府的参与主要是省级层面的。
So so the government involvement, you know, is at a pro provincial level.
这也是为什么这个地区初创企业数量如此之多的原因之一。
And that's part of why there's such a high number, like a high number of startups in the area.
我的意思是，如果你把这当作一个结论，认为这项工作对他们来说非常成功。
I mean, it's interesting if you take this as a conclusion, oh, this work, this was very successful for them.
然后你反过来问，西方国家应该怎么做？
And then you turn and say, what should, you know, the West do?
我认为这很难，因为当我们的政府试图介入初创企业时，从来都不是为了确保有成千上万家公司。
I think it's hard because, you know, when when our governments tried to get involved in startups, it's never been about helping to ensure there were a thousand of them.
通常来说，你会推出某个项目。
It's usually, you know, you create some program.
让我印象最深的是太阳能领域，因为我自己曾在那个行业创办过公司，当时大概有十家初创企业筹集了超过五亿美元的资金。
The one that's stuck in my brain was solar because I actually had a company in the space, you know, where there were probably 10, you know, startups that had raised over $500,000,000.
然后其中有三家能够长期游说华盛顿的各方，最终获得了资金。
And then three of them were able to, you know, court the players in DC long enough to to get money.
Solyndra 是人们印象最深的一个，因为它们最终破产了。
Solyndra being the the one that people remember the most because they eventually went bankrupt.
但这感觉不像这种情况。
But but that doesn't feel like this thing.
对吧？
Right?
这更像是监管俘获，看谁能在这个最高层面胜出。
That that feels more like a regulatory capture and who can win, you know, at the highest level.
而这个是在游戏的末期。
This and and and it's more at the end of the game.
这个是在游戏的初期。
This is at the beginning of the game.
所以我不确定。
So I don't know.
我不确定美国是否有类似的情况。
I don't know if there's a US equivalent of this.
我得好好想想这个问题。
I'll need to think about that.
我认为我的第一步只是重新审视他们为何能取得成功。
I think my first step was just to to take a fresh look at why they've been successful.
当我发现他们的方法与我原先想象的如此不同，甚至非常新颖时，这让我大开眼界。
And when I saw that the approach was so, you know, novel from what I had imagined it was, it was very eye opening.
你曾经向我指出的一点是，他们降低了对市值的重视，或者说在过去五年里，他们反而针对市值最大的公司，可能是为了促进竞争的多元化。
Well, one of the things you pointed out to me was that they deprioritized market caps, or I might even say over the last five years that they've kind of attacked the largest market cap companies in favor perhaps of diversifying competition.
因此，我认为我们可以明确地说一点：国家对哪些产业重要有着高度的协调。
And so, you know, it seems like the one thing I think we can definitively say, there's a hell of a lot more national coordination about what industries are important.
他们的产业政策会先确定一个行业，然后从中央政府层面，鼓励各个省份在各自区域内扶持这些企业，让竞争得以展开。
Like their industrial policy identifies an industry, then what it seems like they do from the, you know, kind of central governing authority is they encourage all of the the provinces to see these companies within, you know, their their different areas, allow that competition to occur.
所以我想问的是，当你看美国的情况时，那里更多是无拘无束的竞争，那么这里的重点仅仅是让我们意识到这一点，还是你在暗示美国也需要采取某些措施？
So I guess the question is, you know, when you look at The US where, you know, it's much more just unfettered competition, is this just like is the point here just be aware of this, or are you suggesting that there are things that The US needs to do?
我的意思是，在某些方面，现在华盛顿出台的这种协调性产业政策——总统所谈论的我们必须将关键国家产业、精密制造、部分医疗物资、部分芯片以及一些铝和钢重新本土化的内容——
I mean, it seems in some ways like the coordinated industrial policy that's now coming out of Washington, the stuff that the president is talking about where we have to re onshore critical national industries, precision manufacturing, some medical supply, some chips, some, you know, aluminum and steel.
这在我看来似乎与你在这里讨论的产业政策相当一致？
That would seem to me to be fairly aligned with the industrial policy that you're discussing here?
嗯，你刚提的问题可能需要四个小时才能回答清楚，但我会尽量简洁地回应。
Well, there there's there's so much like, you asked you just asked a question that might take four hours to answer, but let me let me just try and be as terse as possible in responding to it.
所以我让CHECKBD做了另外两项研究。
So I had CHECKBD do two more pieces of research.
第一个是我所说的这部分，或者说是第二部分。
The first one I this or this would be part two.
第二部分值得提一下。
Part two is worth mentioning.
所以，我认为大多数人普遍认为并谈论中国对企业的补贴问题。
So, I think most people believe that and talk about China subsidization.
一旦确定了赢家，政府就会在某些情况下提供补贴支持。
So once winners are identified, there are situations where the government has helped subsidize.
比亚迪当时得到了20亿美元的资金支持，第二部分将详细说明这类案例。
BYD was in a situation where I think they were given $2,000,000,000 So that second part walks through cases of that.
我不想回避这一点，因为这正是许多人提出批评的地方。
I don't wanna shy away from that part because that is the criticism that a lot of people bring to the table.
因此，这部分将全面呈现这些情况。
And so this will give a dump of that.
但第三点，你之前提到过，我认为非常值得思考。
But the third thing, which you hinted at, which I think is very important to think about.
在给出任何回应之前，我想确保自己完全理解正在发生的事情。
And before I get to any type of response, wanna make sure I fully understand what's happening.
在这项研究的第三部分中，可以看到中国确实存在对成功企业市值的弱化倾向。
And there does seem to be in China, part three of this research walks through this, a deprioritization of market cap of successful companies.
我认为这一点对政策制定者和投资者都至关重要——当你投资中国公司股票时，你希望它们能像‘MAG七巨头’那样成长为价值三万亿美元的巨头。
And this is something that I think should be important for policymakers to understand, but also investors, you're buying stocks of Chinese companies, you know, hoping that they will, you know, like like the MAG seven turn into these $3,000,000,000,000 entities.
但中国政府可能并不将企业市值增长视为‘成功’目标的一部分。
The the Chinese government may not consider that part of the objective function of what a win is.
在过去的三周里，我们看到比亚迪将价格下调了30%。
And in the past three weeks, we saw BYD take prices down 30%.
这可能是得到了政府的鼓励。
That may have had encouragement from the government.
我没有确凿证据，但这与政府关注的事项是一致的。
I don't have proof of that, but it synonymous with the kinds of things that matter to them.
因此，如果你的政府主要关心高就业率，并且高度重视企业在全球的竞争力，你可能会采取我所说的‘亚马逊式’策略，即‘你的利润就是我的机会’。
And so if your government cared mostly about high employment and cared mostly about the durability of the competitiveness of your companies globally, you might take, you know, what I would call the Amazon approach and say, you know, your margin is my opportunity.
我要成为低成本的生产者。
I'm gonna be the low cost producer.
这将使我在全球与其他国家的竞争中占据最佳地位。
And that's gonna make my competitive position relative to other countries around the world, the best it can be.
如果我的政府并不依赖于这些市值是否高昂，那么我可能会鼓励在我们已经占据优势的行业里展开价格竞争。
And if I don't have a government that's dependent upon whether or not those market caps are high or not, then I might encourage price competition, you know, in an industry that we're already winning at.
这是一致的。
Well, that's consistent.
比如，当赢家开始浮现时，中国显然干预得更多，对吧？
Like if you look at as winners begin to emerge, right, China definitely plays a heavier hand, right?
政府拥有黄金股和否决权。
You have golden shares and veto rights by the government.
没错。
Correct.
政府还实行优先采购。
You have preferential procurement by the government.
还需要获得监管批准。
You have regulatory approvals that are required.
你知道，在这个后滴滴时代，他们上市了。
You know, in this post DD era where they, you know, went public.
我的意思是，我们亲眼看到政府直接出手，比如对马云和阿里巴巴的处理。
I mean, we've seen the the government literally, I mean, they disappear Jack Ma with respect to Alibaba.
他们已经介入了。
They've they've stepped in.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Yep.
我们有字节跳动，它至今仍未上市。
We have bite dance that still is not is not public.
所以很明显，一旦赢家出现，他们就会施加更大的控制。
So clearly, they exert way more control once the winners emerge.
我们知道他们也在某种程度上对华为这样做。
We know that they're doing this at some level with Huawei as well.
你刚才提到的所有这些话题，都在这三篇文章中有所涵盖。
And all those topics that you just mentioned, they're all covered in these three pieces.
因此，如果人们更感兴趣，我鼓励他们去阅读。
So if people have more interest, would encourage them to read it.
但我认为，在美国，我们有一种心态，认为拥有3万亿美元的赢家是积极的信号。
But I think in The US, we have a mindset that, oh, having $3,000,000,000,000 winners is a positive sign.
我认为重要的是要理解，那边可能并不持有这种态度。
And I think it's important to understand that that may not be the attitude over there.
这可能导致不同的决策方式。
And that can lead to different decision making.
你让我想到了中国互联网公司和美国公司之间的相对估值比较。
You're making me think about some of the relative valuation comparisons between Chinese internet companies and US companies.
如果你真的认为存在某种障碍，阻止它们进一步壮大，那么这是美国投资者必须考虑的问题。
If you really think that there's going to be an obstacle to allowing them to grow bigger, something that's US investors have to take into account.
嗯，比尔，对我而言，这一切中最关键的一点是我们正与中国展开竞争。
Well, I think the number one thing for me, Bill, so what on all of this is that we're in this competition with China.
如果我们天真地以为他们不会全力以赴竞争，那就太幼稚了。
And I think we would be very naive to think that they're going to do anything but be extraordinarily competitive.
你和我都争论过，他们已经在人工智能领域处于前沿。
You and I have argued they're on the frontier of AI already.
他们在芯片领域正迅速追赶，紧随我们之后。
They're gaining ground quickly on chips and right on our heels.
所以我很感激你稍微剖析了一下背后的原因。
And so I I appreciated unpacking a little bit the why.
比如，他们为什么在那里如此成功？
Like, why have they they been so successful there?
所以这就是我的收获。
So that that was my takeaway.
比尔，你从这项研究中还有其他收获吗？
Bill, are there any other takeaways from the research that you have?
嗯，有两个。
Well, there there are two.
第一，我知道很多人会很快调侃说，哦，中国之所以成功是因为知识产权盗窃之类的？
One, you know, I think a lot of people kinda quip quickly that, oh, China's successful because of IP theft or you know?
我认为，如果你把原因简化为某一种贬义的行为或评论，你就忽视了整个体系，这就是为什么我鼓励大家至少读一读第一部分，看看其中投入了多少广泛的工作，因为如果你以为只要保护好知识产权，这类事情就不会再发生，就可能会做出错误的政策决定。
I think if you if you narrow it down to one, you know, derogatory action or comment, you're ignoring this system that and that's why I would encourage people to read that part one at least and just see the breadth of the work that that went in into place because that you could make a bad policy decision because you think, oh, well, if we just protect IP, then this won't keep happening.
但实际情况比这要复杂得多，你知道吗？
But there there's more happening than that, you know?
所以这是第一部分。
So that'd be part one.
其次，在人工智能领域，我们上次谈到过，突然之间你睁开眼，发现中国有四个资金雄厚的开源玩家。
And then second, on the AI front, one thing we talked about last time is, you know, all of a sudden you open your eyes and there's four deep pocketed open source players in China.
如果你想想，促进竞争力是实现全球成功的一部分，那我不会惊讶于发现政府倾向于这种做法——就像为电动汽车和太阳能电池板所建立的系统一样，拥有四个开源竞争者，原因完全相同。
And if you think about, you know, promoting competitiveness as part of what's gonna lead to global success, I wouldn't be shocked to learn or find out that the government favored, you know, an approach like that and having four open source competitors for all the reasons that the systems they put in place for EVs and solar panels, to me, those are very similar.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
这样一来，即使这些产品的经济收益和利润率较低，生态系统也能更便宜、更容易地相互受益。
So it just makes it cheaper and easier for the ecosystems to benefit from one another, even though the economics and the margins on those products may be lower.
是的。
Yes.
还有一件事我本该提到的，那就是中共的一个可能目标函数：让全体公民都能负担得起。
And one other thing that I should have mentioned that might be an objective function of the CCP is just the affordability to their to their entire citizenry.
所以，你知道，比亚迪以10美元卖一辆车，对中国消费者来说更好，就像开源AI模型一样。
So, you know, BYD selling a car for $10 is better for the consumer in China as might be, you know, for open source AI models.
有趣。
Interesting.
好吧，继续谈中国的话题，比尔，过去两年里，我们多次讨论过需要遏制非法移民，同时大力加强吸引和留住美国最优秀的人才。
Well, staying on the theme of China, Bill, you and I've talked a ton over the past two years about the need to stop illegal immigration, but to to dramatically ramp up recruiting and retaining the best and the brightest to The United States.
完全正确。
Totally.
你知道，我们以前做过关于这个话题的节目。
You know, we've we've we've done former pods on this.
而且我们一直谈到，人工智能时代的核心就是人才。
And and we've talked about the age of AI is all about talent.
我记得我们看到总统在《All In》播客中谈到，申请H-1B签证将变得容易得多，简直就像直接附上绿卡一样，当时我们有多兴奋。
I remember how excited we were after we saw the president on the all in pod talking about how it's gonna become way easier to get an h one b visa, literally like stapling a green card.
这非常令人振奋。
It's very exciting.
这些文凭。
To to to these diplomas.
但我想做、也一定会做的是，你从大学毕业后。
But what I wanna do and what I will do is you graduate from a college.
我认为，作为你文凭的一部分，你应该自动获得一张绿卡，以便留在这个国家。
I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in this country.
这包括社区学院。
And that includes junior colleges too.
任何从大学毕业的人，无论你是读了两年还是四年，只要你毕业了，或者获得了博士学位，你就应该能够留在这个国家。
Anybody graduates from a college, you go in there for two years or four years, if you graduate or you get a doctorate degree from a college, you should be able to stay in this country.
你比我更了解这些故事，但我知道一些人从顶尖大学或普通大学毕业后，非常想留下来。
And you know more stories than I do, but I know of stories where people graduated from a top college or from a college and they desperately wanted to stay here.
他们有创业计划和想法，却无法留下。
They had a plan for a company, a concept, and they can't.
他们回到印度，回到中国，在那些地方做同样的公司，最终成为拥有成千上万员工的亿万富翁，而这一切本可以在这里发生。
They go back to India, they go back to China, they do the same basic company in those places, and they become multibillionaires employing thousands and thousands of people, and it could have been done here.
更大的例子是，你需要一个人才池来为你的公司工作。
And a bigger example is you need a pool of people to work for your companies.
你有优秀的企业，它们需要聪明的人才。
You have great companies and they have to be smart people.
不是每个人都可以不够聪明。
Not everybody can be less than smart.
你需要顶尖的人才。
You need brilliant people.
我们必须吸引那些杰出的人才——那些从大学毕业后、在顶尖大学中成绩排名第一的人，你必须能够招募并留住这些人。
And we force the brilliant people, the people that graduate from college, the people that are number one in their class from the best colleges, you have to be able to recruit these people and keep the people.
这曾经是个大问题。
It was such a big deal.
有人在班级中名列前茅，却连与公司达成协议都做不到，因为他们不确定自己能否留在这个国家。
Somebody graduates at the top of the class, They can't even make a deal with the company because they don't think they're gonna be able to stay in the country.
这种情况将在第一天就结束。
That is gonna end on day one.
但这一周，我们听到了完全不同的说法。
But this week, we got a very different message.
对吧？
Right?
马可·卢比奥在推特上说，美国将开始撤销中国学生的签证，包括那些与中国共产党有联系的学生，这似乎合情合理。
Marco Rubio tweeted, The US will begin revoking visas of Chinese students, including those with connections to the CCP, which seemed reasonable.
但这里的连接词是‘或’在学习关键领域的情况下。
But the the the conjunction was or studying in critical fields.
没错。
Yep.
对吧？
Right?
这从一开始就显得很极端，毕竟大家都清楚人工智能是一个关键领域。
And that seemed out of the gates, like, all know AI is a critical field.
这看起来范围非常广泛，令人担忧，而且与总统此前在《All In》播客中的表态完全相反。
It seemed really broad and concerning and and really a 180 degree turn from what the president had previously said on the all in pod.
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我看到你发了关于这件事的推文。
I saw that you tweeted something about this.
你对这件事有什么反应？你对目前我们所处的状况感觉如何？
What was your reaction to this, and and how are you feeling about where we stand today on it?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，在我们最早的几期节目之一中，我们发布了一段里根的视频，我记得那是他离任时的最后一次演讲，他谈到美国之所以成功，正是因为我们向世界各地的优秀人才敞开大门。
I mean and and I think in one of our very first episodes, we posted a video of Reagan, which I think it was like his last speech leaving office where he talked about America, you know, being successful precisely because our doors are open and inviting to the best and brightest from around the world.
这一切对我来说都是有道理的。
And all of that makes sense to me.
而这项具体行动，我认为有可能与所有这些积极的方面背道而驰。
And this particular action, I think has the potential to run counter to all those positive things.
我希望特朗普当初的承诺能得到更多后续跟进。
I, you know, I wish there had been more follow-up on the on the Trump promise.
我会全力支持那样的做法。
I would be hugely supportive of that.
我们都看过那些在硅谷成功并对其发展至关重要的移民名单。
We've all seen the list of all the immigrants that have been so successful and critical to Silicon Valley's own success.
你知道，你和我也讨论过，有些人说50%的AI研究人员具有中国背景。
And, you know, you and I have also talked about the fact that some people say 50% of AI researchers are of Chinese origin.
我认为，目前来自中国的AI专利数量已经超过了美国。
And I believe now the patent count in AI coming out of China is larger than The US.
因此，从我们刚才的讨论中，一个有趣的结论是，也许中国政府并不那么关心企业家在经济层面，或从股权角度取得成功。
And so, yeah, one interesting takeaway from what we just talked about is maybe the Chinese government isn't as interested in entrepreneurs being as successful economically, from an equity standpoint.
如果我们是机会之地，他们就会想来这里。
So if we're that land of opportunity, they would wanna be here.
他们想成为这里的公民。
They would wanna be a citizen here.
他们想在这里创办自己的公司。
They would wanna build their companies here.
所以我真的认为，你知道，我完全支持不接纳间谍，对吧？
And so I really think, you know, and look, I'm all for, you know, not having spies, right?
这说得通。
That makes sense.
但当你做出这些宽泛的陈述时，它们有可能滑向危险的边缘，对吧？下一步会是什么？
But when you take these kind of broad statements and, you know, and they they have have the potential to be slippery slopes, right, where the next step is what?
你开始研究每一个AI公司的LinkedIn，排查所有具有中国背景的人。
You start, you know, studying LinkedIn for every single AI company, for anyone of Chinese origin.
我认为这可能会演变成一种类似麦卡锡主义的视角，严重损害我们长期的竞争力。
I I I think that has the potential to take on kind of a McCarthy like, you know, perspective that could be very dangerous to our long term competitiveness.
我认为部分原因也关乎美国的品牌形象。
Well, I think part of it too is just about brand USA.
我们想向世界传递什么样的品牌形象？
Like what is the brand we wanna project into the world?
没错。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
这不仅仅关乎那些已经在这里的学生。
It it like, it's not just about the students who are already here.
这关乎那些仍在中国、东南亚或世界其他地方的下一代学生。
It's about the generation of students who are still in China or or or still in Southeast Asia or anywhere else in the world.
完全正确。
Totally.
非洲，就像埃隆、萨克斯和其他人一样，他们是否觉得这里反复无常，随时可能改变主意，突然就把他们赶走，尽管他们已经投入了时间和精力？
Africa, like Elon and Saks and, you know, and others, you know, is this a place that they feel like is capricious and can just change on a dime and all of a sudden throw them out after they've invested time and energy here?
还是说，这里才是真正的机会之地，是他们想来实现梦想的地方？
Or is this truly the land of opportunity, the place they wanna go build their dreams?
我认为，这对美国在全球的品牌形象造成的代价是巨大的。在过去三四十年，甚至更久的时间里，我们一直是那个地方——尤其是在科技时代，每个人都想来这里实现这些目标。
And I think that the cost to The US brand on a global basis, we have been the place for the last three, four decades or much, much longer, but certainly in the age of technology, everybody's wanted to come and do these things.
这对我们国家的利益至关重要。
It's a Nord to our great national benefit.
数万亿美元的美国企业、我们的经济增长、经济生产力以及我们的生活水平都因此得到了提升。
Trillions and trillions of dollars worth of US enterprise, our economic growth, our economic productivity, our standard of living is higher.
我们之所以在所有这些关键的国家安全领域保持领先，正是因为我们对全球人才如此开放。
We've stayed ahead in all of these critical national security areas precisely because we've been so inviting to people around the world.
当我们邀请亚伦·莱维时，我们曾提出论点，认为我们需要大幅增加H-1B签证数量，并让人们更容易获得签证；因此，当我听到这些时，说实话，在整个政府的种种举措中，总统关于‘全员参与’的承诺让我感到无比振奋。
And we were making the argument, you know, when we had Aaron Levy on that we need to dramatically increase the number of H-1B visas and make it a lot easier for And people to get so when I hear this, I mean, I I have to say out of everything that's occurred in the administrations, in some respects, I could not have been more thrilled by the president's promise on the all in pod.
我认为那是一个重要的转折点。
I I thought that was a big turning point.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这对硅谷的人们来说很重要。
I think for folks in Silicon Valley.
因此，看到这种仿佛180度的大转弯，我当然希望这是被误解了，希望这只是个狭隘的举措，我们仍将展现出美国开放、友好的形象。
And so to see this, what felt like a 180 on this, I certainly hope that it was misinterpreted, that it's very narrow, that we are going to project an inviting and welcoming brand America.
当然，老兄。
Certainly, man.
如今，在人工智能时代，把全球最顶尖的研究人员吸引到这里至关重要。
Right now, it is so critical in the age of AI to get the world's best researchers here.
正如你所说，我看到一项研究指出，美国40%到50%的AI研究人员是中国籍的。
Like you said, I saw a study that suggested that 40 to 50% of the AI researchers in The United States, our best researchers are Chinese.
所以，如果你要针对在斯坦福学习AI的中国学生，那么从逻辑上讲，滑坡效应并不远——你迟早会说，我必须针对这些研究人员。
So if you're gonna go after Chinese students studying AI at Stanford, you by definition, the slippery slope is not that far to say, I gotta go after these researchers.
这些研究人员对国家安全的潜在威胁，远大于在斯坦福学习的学生。
There are a lot more risk to our national security theoretically than a student studying at Stanford.
我再次同意你的观点。
Again, I'm with you.
我完全支持强硬立场。
I'm all about being tough.
你必须合法地在这里。
You gotta be here legally.
我不希望任何人对我们进行间谍活动。
I don't want anybody spying on us.
但如果我们这样做，我认为这将是一个极其危险且严重损害我们国家形象的做法。
But the the I think it's a very dangerous place and really destructive to our national brand if we do this.
所以，你知道，当我看到你关于这件事的推文时，保持领先于中国最好的方式就是挖走他们的人才。
And so, you know, when you I saw your tweet about this, the best way to stay ahead of China is is to poach their talent.
你知道，就在几周前，我们还在讨论一个AI签证。
You know, just a few weeks ago, we were talking about an AI visa.
对吧？
Right?
如果你是中国的AI研究人员并身在美国，我们应该给你的家人发放AI签证，让他们也过来，这样你就不会承受那么大的压力要回中国。
That if you were an AI researcher from China in The United States, we had to give your family an AI visa to come over here so that you don't have so much pressure on you to go back to China.
完全正确。
Totally
同意。
agree.
所以我们需要弄清楚这个问题的底线在哪里，但我当然想强调，我们需要专注于
So we need to find out where we we need to bottom this out, but but I certainly wanna weigh in that we need I to focus on
去了解中国，为什么它能成功，以及所有这些因素。
find, you know, just merely trying to understand China, why it's successful and and all those things.
有些人因为你不是反华派，就给你贴上‘中国通’的标签，你知道的。
Some people label you as a China file, you know, just because you're not a China hawk.
我更担心的是，反华心态会导向非常糟糕的政策，尤其是那些轻易跳到这种立场的人。
And I worry more in general that the China hawk mindset leads you to policy that's really bad, you know, especially people that jump to that place.
现在很多人都这样，对吧？
And a lot of people are these days, right?
所以我只是觉得，政策这种东西，你可能初衷很好，实施了政策，却得到完全相反的结果——这正是我在演讲和其他场合提到过的一点。
And so I just think that, you know, policy is one of those things where you can have an intent and you can implement a policy and you can get the exact opposite outcome, was one of the things I talked about back in in my speech and the other.
对华出口管制可能是促使华为迅速赶上的原因。
The export controls on China probably is what caused Huawei to catch up so quickly.
没错。
Yes.
你知道吗，拜登时代的扩散规则本会让中国的人工智能栈赢得全球人工智能竞赛。
You know, the the Biden era diffusion rule was going to allow the Chinese AI stack to to win the global race in AI.
你知道的？
You know?
现在我们看到，我认为萨克斯已经恰当地指出了这一点。
And now we see, and I think Sacks has appropriately called this out.
我们看到人们把仅仅是AI减速主义者、想要阻止AI并将其据为己有者混为一谈。
We see this conflating between people who are just AI decelerationists and want to stop AI and capture it for themselves.
对吧？
Right?
现在他们把自己定位成中国鹰派，以便组建更大的联盟来减缓这一进程。
Now they're kind of positioning themselves as China hawks so that they can gather a bigger alliance in order to slow this down.
我认为这全是糟糕的政策。
I think it's all bad policy.
从我的角度来看，我们需要专注于自己的竞赛。
From my perspective, we need to focus on our own race.
盯着前方的赛道，尽全力奔跑。
Look at the lane ahead, run as fast as we can.
如果你和我想赢得冠军、组建一支冠军篮球队，我们就不该在意篮球运动员来自世界哪个地方。
And if you and I wanna win championships and build a championship basketball team, We should not care where in the world the basketball player comes from.
我们只需要把最好的球员招入队伍来赢得冠军，对待人工智能和技术也应采取同样的态度。
We just need to get the best players on our team to win the championship, and we ought to take the same approach to AI and technology.
而且，呃，其他人也说过这一点，所以我不想过多赘述，但你知道，整个曼哈顿计划深受移民的深刻影响。
And and and and I you know, other people have said this, so I don't wanna belabor it too much, but you know, the entire Manhattan Project was heavily impacted by immigrants.
就像这个国家所取得的许多伟大成就一样，都是因为它吸引了来自世界各地的人才，让我们能够挑选最优秀、最聪明的人。
Like many of the great things that have been accomplished in this nation are because it attracts people from around the world, we get to cherry pick the best and the brightest.
因此，确实，技术移民人数多年来一直停滞在每年二十五万左右，这简直是荒谬的。
And so, yeah, we the fact that that that the the skilled immigration number has been stuck, I think, at two to 250,000 a year for like twenty years is insanity.
我们应当采取与之完全相反的措施。
And we should be doing the opposite of of this.
我们应该仔细研究如何切实增加这一数字。
We should be figuring out exactly how to increase that number.
布拉德，继续谈中国话题，稀土问题又回到了头条新闻上，是的。
Brad, staying on the topic of China, the the rare issue has has come back to the top of the headlines and Yeah.
这两个国家之间的关系仍然陷入僵局。
The the relationship between the two countries still is at an impasse.
你听到什么了？
Which what are you hearing?
这里最新的情况是什么？
What's the latest here?
这如何广泛影响美国的公司？
How could it broadly affect companies in The US?
你知道，之前有一篇《华尔街日报》的头条新闻，你我和都分享过。
You know, well, there was this Wall Street Journal headline that you and I shared.
我记得上面说中国在稀土出口上态度强硬，并给依赖性带来的痛苦上了深刻的一课，还指出汽车公司因稀土磁体短缺而面临工厂停产的风险。
I think it said China plays tough on rare earth exports and imparts powerful lessons on the pains of dependence, and it pointed to car companies risk factory shutdowns, you know, over this rare earth magnet shortage.
我们之前就一直在听说这件事。
And we had been hearing about this.
记得今年早些时候，我曾称之为，中国的一记‘致命一击’，确实会造成巨大破坏，因为他们几乎垄断了所有电动机和电动部件中关键磁体的全球生产。
Remember earlier in the year, I think I called it, you know, a kill shot by China can really cause massive disruption because they really are a global monopolist in the production of key magnets in almost every electric motor and electric parts.
所以真正的问题是，我们有没有办法摆脱这种困境？
And so the real question is, you know, is there a way out of this?
我们怎么看这件事的发展？
How do we see this, you know, playing out?
比尔，我觉得稀土和AI芯片之间存在着真正的相似之处。
And I see a real parallel, Bill, here between rare earths and AI chips.
明白吗？
Okay?
在这两种情况下，每个国家都将它们视为关乎存亡的问题。
In both instances, each country views them as existential.
对吧？
Right?
中国将AI芯片视为关乎存亡的问题，因为他们知道通用人工智能对国家安全、经济安全等至关重要。
China views AI chips as existential because they know AGI is critical to national security, national economic security, etcetera.
我们将这些磁体视为关乎存亡的问题，因为我们必须维持关键产业的运转。
We view these magnets as existential because we gotta keep our critical industries going.
我们不仅用它们制造特斯拉中的电动机，还用它们制造对我国军事至关重要的部件中的电动机。
We use this to not only build electric motors that go in our Teslas, but we use them in electric motors that go into parts that are critical to our in to our military.
所以我一直在思考这个问题。
So I was thinking about this.
对吧？
Right?
习近平总统或特朗普总统将在周五，也就是几天后，与习近平通话。
President Xi's talking or president Trump is talking to Xi on Friday, couple days from now.
如果我是总统，我会怎么做？
And if I were the president, what would I do?
我认为我愿意用稀土换取对美国AI芯片的访问权，特别是现在已停产的Blackwell 30芯片。
I think I would trade rare earths for access to USAI chips, specifically this now deprecated Blackwell 30 chip.
让我解释一下为什么。
And let me let me explain why.
让我大概提出四到五个理由，说明为什么我认为此时这对美国来说是一笔非常划算的交易。
Let me maybe make, you know, four or five points as to why I think this would be a great trade for The US at this point in time.
好的。
K.
第一，这个B30是一款已被淘汰的芯片。
Number one, this, you know, this b 30 is this deprecated chip.
所以我们之前对H20的担忧是，它的高带宽内存太多了。
So one of the concerns we had about the h 20 was that there was too too much high bandwidth memory on it.
对吧？
Right?
如果把足够多的H20集群在一起，就可用于训练。
And that that if you cluster enough of them together could be used for training.
因此，他们在B30上彻底移除了HBM，而且也不再使用台积电的COAS技术。
So what they did on the b 30 is they took it took HBM off it altogether, and it also doesn't use this COAS from TSMC.
这样一来，他们得到了一款在市场上具有竞争力的芯片，但从训练角度来看却已被淘汰。
So it gives them a chip that's competitive in the market, but it actually deprecates it from a training perspective.
它与美国的前沿芯片——Blackwell 200和300相比仍有巨大差距，但在中国市场仍具竞争力。
It still provides a big gap to where The US frontier chips are, the Blackwell two hundred and three hundred, but it is competitive in the Chinese market.
那么这带来了什么影响？
And so what does that do?
我们过去几周已经讨论过这个问题。
We've talked about this the last few weeks.
这使得全球一半的研究人员和AI生态系统中的开发者留在中国。
That keeps, you know, half of the world's researchers and the developers in the AI ecosystem are in China.
这让他们留在CUDA生态系统中，使英伟达能够竞争，我认为这减缓了他们在全球其他地区全面主导的能力。
It keeps them in that CUDA ecosystem, allows NVIDIA to compete, and I think slows down their ability to run the table around the rest of the world.
我认为，当我们禁止向中国出口芯片时，会像我们刚才谈到的那样，加速华为的发展，带来意想不到的后果。
I think when we ban chips to China, it's gonna accelerate Huawei like we just talked about unintended consequences.
是的。
Yeah.
这会把所有人都吸引到他们的开发者生态系统中，同时减少英伟达生态系统中的开发者数量。
It's gonna bring everybody into their developer ecosystem, and it's going to reduce the amount of developers in the NVIDIA ecosystem.
所以我认为这是件坏事。
So I think that's a bad thing.
是的。
Yeah.
第二，向他们出售这些芯片，对吧？我认为这并没有实质性地推动他们在人工智能领域的发展，但却为美国政府带来了数十亿美元的税收，对吧？
Number two, selling them these chips, right, which I don't think materially advances their cause on AI, generates billions and billions of dollars of taxes to the US government, right?
它减少了我们的贸易逆差。
It reduces our trade deficit.
记住，如果我们向他们出售价值400亿美元的芯片，而突然间我们将这一数字降至零，我们的贸易逆差就增加了400亿美元。最后，这为英伟达带来了数十亿美元的收入或利润，这些资金可以重新投入，确保英伟达在人工智能竞赛中保持领先地位，而这实际上也是美国在人工智能领域保持领先的体现。
Remember, if we're selling them $40,000,000,000 worth of chips and all of a sudden we take it to zero, we've just increased our trade deficit by $40,000,000,000 And finally, it produces billions in revenue or in profits to NVIDIA, which they can then plow back in to making sure that NVIDIA stays at the front of the AI race, which is a proxy for The US staying in front in AI.
所以这是第二点。
So that's point two.
第三点，这能让我们获得什么，对吧？
On point three, it gets us right?
如果我们进行这项贸易——我不知道中国是否会同意这项贸易——但如果我们做了，就能立即获得这些稀土资源，这至关重要，同时也能为我们争取时间，建立自己的稀土供应链。
If we do this trade, and I don't know that China would do this trade, but if we did this trade, then it would get us access to those rare earths right now, which is absolutely critical, and it buys us time to stand up our own rare earth supply.
毫无疑问，这一时刻已向中国和美国都揭示了：我们必须重新振兴关键产业，如精密制造、稀土等。
There's no doubt what this moment has revealed to both China and to The United States is that we have to get back to our critical industries, precision manufacturing, rare earths, etcetera.
但要实现这一点需要数年时间。
But that's gonna take years to do.
而中国肯定也在想，我们必须减少对英伟达的依赖，但这也需要他们多年时间才能实现。
And China, I'm sure, is saying to themselves, we've gotta wean our dependency off of NVIDIA, but it also takes them years to do.
因此，这让我们能够在不被打断的情况下继续推进。
So it allows us to continue to build that out without the disruption.
如果我们不这么做，未来六个季度内，我们的经济将面临严重动荡，拖累经济增长，并导致军方和美国汽车工业等关键领域出现零部件短缺等问题。
If we don't do this, then we're gonna have a massively disrupted economy over the next six quarters, slowing down economic growth and causing problems and critical shortages in parts to the military, in parts to our US auto industry, etcetera.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我想说下一点，我把它称为最后一点，然后我想听听你的看法。
So I would say the the next point, I'll call this the final one, and then I wanna get your reaction.
对吧？
Right?
如果我们维持芯片禁令，这是我最担心的问题。
If we keep the chip ban in place, here's my biggest concern.
我认为这会大大增加中国被迫对台湾采取行动的可能性。
I think it dramatically increases the chances that China is forced to move on Taiwan.
对吧？
Right?
我们到处告诉全世界，人工智能完全是关乎存亡的。
We're out there telling everybody in the world that AI is totally existential.
我们的许多领导人说，通用人工智能将在未来两到三年内被超越。
We have lots of our leaders who are saying AGI is going to be eclipsed within the next two to three years.
但我们却告诉地球上最大的经济体之一：我们不让你拥有它。
But yet we're telling one of the largest economic powers on the planet, but we're gonna prevent you from having it.
对吧？
Right?
因此，他们可能会说：如果这真的对我们的国家构成如此存亡级别的风险，那我们只能去拿下台湾——我认为这对美国来说将是一场灾难。
And so there's a way they they can they can say, well, if that is so existential as a risk to our country, we just have to go take Taiwan, which I don't think I think would be horrible for The United States.
顺便说一句，我认为这对中国的打击也会非常严重。
By the way, I think it'd be terrible for China as well.
但这将是世界上一个极其危险的事件，尤其是因为美国还需要三到四年才能将供应链从中国多元化出去。
But it would be a hugely risky event in the world, particularly because The US needs another three to four years to diversify our supply chain away from China.
是的。
Yeah.
所以对此我有三点看法。
So three reactions to this.
首先，大家都同意，但如果我们不让他们获得我们最擅长的东西，要平衡贸易确实很难。
First, you know, they're all in agreement, but yeah, it'd be tough to balance trade if we don't let them have the stuff we're really good at.
你所交易的东西，我的意思是，这就像经济学入门一样。
The stuff you trade, like, I mean, this is compared this is like economics 101.
一个国家，你知道，应该出售自己最擅长的东西。
Like the country, you know, you sell the stuff you're best at.
所以如果你把这一点排除在外，他们就不会买我们的东西了。
So if you take that off the table, they're not gonna buy our crap.
因此，如果你把我们最擅长的东西排除在外，就不可能实现贸易平衡。
And so, like, there's no way to get to a trade balance if you're taking our best stuff off the table.
关于台湾，我完全同意。
I totally agree on Taiwan.
我早就提出过这个观点。
I I've made this point for a while.
我认为杰弗里·萨克斯也表达了同样的观点。
I think Jeffrey Sachs makes the same point.
你需要小心，你采取的行动不要恰恰是那些最能加速这种情况发生的行为。
You you need to be careful that the actions you're taking aren't aren't the exact ones that encourage that to happen the most quickly.
第三，我们之所以在这些稀土元件上陷入这场争斗，部分原因是我们实施了出口管制，而这不仅仅是为了限制英伟达芯片。
And then thirdly, you know, part of why we're in this battle over these these rare earth components is that we we did these export controls and it wasn't just about the NVIDIA chips.
我认为最近我们试图告诉世界，他们不能购买华为的芯片。
I think recently we are trying to tell the world they can't buy the Huawei chips.
所以，这超出了美国试图对中国的商品出口到欧洲、南美洲实施出口禁令的范围。
So this is outside of America trying to enforce an export ban on China's products selling into Europe, selling into South America.
我认为，这超出了我们政府应该具备的能力范围。
I think that is, you know, something that is beyond the scope of what our government should be capable of doing.
我以前也讨论过这个问题。
And I've talked about this in the past.
我的预期是，ASML会直接无视我们告诉他们不能做什么的指令。
Like, I expect, you know, ASML to just ignore us telling them they can't or can't do something.
我担心的是，我们不是在围绕中国筑墙，而是在围绕美国筑墙，这一点我以前也提到过。
And I worry and I I've mentioned this before, but I worry that rather than build a wall around China, we're gonna build a wall around America.
没错。
Yep.
说得很好。
Well, it's it's well said.
我要大力赞扬戴维·萨克斯和霍华德·拉特尼克，他们通过重新开放全球市场，成功废除了拜登政府的扩散规则，确保美国以最快的速度前进。
And and listen, I think huge credit goes to David Sachs and Howard Lutnick so far for repealing the the the Biden diffusion rule by by reopening up global markets, making sure America's running as fast as we can.
美国的AI技术栈可以在全球范围内获胜。
The American AI stack can win around the world.
我认为他们在对华出口芯片问题上的立场更难判断。
I think it's a closer call for them on US chips to China.
但对于这款已淘汰的芯片，我希望他们能仔细审视一下。
But this deprecated chip, I hope they take a close look at it.
我认为这对两国来说将是一场双赢的贸易。
I think it would be a great win win trade for both countries.
我们需要那些稀土元素。
We need those rare earths.
顺便说一句，我并不是说这是一种永久性的自然状态。
And by the way, I'm not saying that this is a permanent state of nature.
想想看，比尔。
Think about this, Bill.
如今，几乎有0%的先进芯片是在台湾以外生产的。
Today, have about 0% of leading edge chips fabbed outside of Taiwan.
对吧？
Right?
在美国几乎没有任何产能。
Almost nothing in The United States.
而到2020年或2030年，也就是四五年后，人们认为美国的先进芯片产能将提升至15%到20%，这是一个巨大的进步。
And by 2020 or by 2030, so in four or five years from now, people think that we'll have upwards of 15 to 20% leading edge capacity in The United States, which is a huge step forward.
这周我看到一个关于阿联酋的演示，如果他们与台积电合作建设一座先进晶圆厂，并让美国对该晶圆厂拥有一定的主权影响力。
I saw a presentation this week involving The United Arab Emirates where if they were to build an advanced fab with TSMC and give The US some sovereign influence over this fab.
对吧？
Right?
所以，如果这是一项联合协议，我们可以在四年内将美国在先进制程节点的市场份额提升至近40%到50%。
So if it was a joint deal that we could increase the market share of The United States advanced advanced nodes to almost 40 or 50% in four years.
这将是对全球先进芯片供应链的一次巨大再平衡，但如果我们因台湾问题陷入战争，就不可能做到这一点。
That would be an extraordinary rebalancing of the global supply chain when it comes to advanced chips, but we're not gonna do that if we're if we're in a war over Taiwan.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
因此，在我看来，现在正是你应该寻找这种合理中间立场的时候。
And so it would seem to me that now would be the time that you would find, you know, this reasonable middle ground.
我们会全力以赴在亚利桑那州和其他对我们友好的国家，比如阿联酋，建设这种先进制程能力。
We would run like hell to build out capability in Arizona and in other countries like The UAE that are friendly to us, you know, where we're building out this this leading edge capability.
在我看来，与其采取我们现在这种全球禁运的政策——中国限制稀土，我们限制芯片——还不如采取一种更明智的策略。
It would seem to me a much smarter policy than pursuing the one that we're on now where we have global embargoes, the Chinese on rare earths and us on chips.
关于这一点，我就说这么多。
Enough said on that.
我想跳过一下。
I wanna jump.
我知道时间很紧。
I know that we're we're we're time's short.
我们来聊聊市场上正在发生的事情。
Let's talk a little bit about just what's going on in the market.
你有一些想法。
You had some thoughts.
嗯，我更想听听你的看法。
Well, I mean, I'm more interested in hearing your thoughts.
你在年初时持谨慎态度。
So you were cautious at the beginning of the year.
随着市场反弹，你变得不那么谨慎了。
You got less cautious that the market has rebounded.
然而，我认为人们关心的许多重大问题——比如我们能否与中国达成某种协议，关税将如何发展——现在有了新动态，法官们对关税言论时而阻止、时而不阻止。
Yet many of the biggest issues that I think people care about, the the whether or not we can get some agreement with China, what's gonna happen with the tariffs, and there's new information on that, judges blocking and not blocking the the the tariff talk.
还有债务问题，现在有很多噪音，你知道，埃隆最近说他不支持那些宏伟的法案。
And then the debt issue, which now, you know, is is there's a whole bunch of of noise, you know, being stirred up by Elon, you know, now saying he doesn't support the big beautiful Bills.
在我看来，目前的不确定性似乎和今年任何时候一样高。
So there's there seems to me to me to be as much uncertainty as as there's ever been this year.
但我非常想知道你的看法。
But I'm very curious on your take.
嗯，目前市场显然并不认同你的观点，比尔。
Well, the market's clearly not not agreeing with you at the moment, Bill.
你知道，我们经历了这次惊人的反弹。
You know, we've had this incredible bounce.
纳斯达克指数从日内低点上涨了20%。
The Nasdaq's up 20% from its intraday lows.
标普指数今年至今基本持平，可能上涨了1%。
The s now it's it's just above flat for the year, maybe up 1%.
标普500指数也出现了大幅反弹，今年迄今上涨了约2%。
The S and P also has had a huge balance now up, like, 2% for the year.
是的。
Yes.
我想是在5月2日或5月初，我们讨论过改变策略，因为我看到一种走向关税问题解决的路径——贝桑共识获胜，通过了协调法案，以延长减税政策并推出新的税收刺激措施。
I think it was on May 2 or early in May where where we talked about us changing the flight path because I saw this approach to getting to the other side of tariffs, the Besant consensus winning, signing the reconciliation bill that would extend the tax cuts and have new tax stimulus.
因此，今天坐在这里，我觉得市场的反弹对我来说很有道理。
And so as I sit here today, like, the the bounce makes a lot of sense to me.
但我们接下来将走向何方至关重要。
But where we go from here matters a lot.
那么，我目前关注的关键点是什么？
And so what are the key things that I'm looking at?
首先，在关税问题上，中国是关键中的关键。
Well, first on tariffs, China is the big enchilada.
总统将在周五与习近平主席通话。
The president's talking with president Xi on Friday.
你必须相信，在日内瓦达成的贝桑共识或协议，将使全球关税最终落在一个大致15%的水平上。
And you have to believe that the Besant consensus or or or accord that was negotiated in Geneva that we are going to get to a status where global tariffs are gonna land in that territory, you know, on a on a blended basis around the world of, you know, 15%.
对吧？
Right?
所以我们之前讨论过，关税会是万亿美元级别，还是数千亿美元级别？
So we talked about are they gonna be trillions or are they going to be hundreds of billions?
关税必须落在较低的区间，否则我认为市场会下跌。
It's gotta land on that lower quadrant or I think the market moves lower.
我认为我们仍然朝着这个方向发展，但正如我们刚才讨论的，美中之间存在一些二元结果。
And I think that's still where we're headed, but they're definitely the topic we just talked about, there's some binary outcomes, think, as it relates to us and China.
看起来欧洲正在取得良好进展。
Looks like Europe is making good progress.
至于调和法案，它似乎进展得非常顺利。
Now on the reconciliation bill, it looked like that was making incredible progress.
我仍然认为会的。
I still think it will.
听好了。
Listen.
我认为埃隆恰当地指出了债务问题，但我真的鼓励大家看看雷·达利奥的这篇文章，以及贝森特最近的言论。
I think that Elon has appropriately, you know, pointed out that the challenges with the debt, but I would really encourage people to look at this Ray Dalio piece and also what Bessent has now been saying.
他们称之为三三三，但其实是指如何实现3%的GDP增长率。
They call it three three three, but it's how to get us to 3% GDP growth.
对吧？
Right?
以及如何将债务占GDP的比例降至3%。
And how to get us to a debt to GDP ratio of 3%.
你不可能在一年内削减2万亿美元。
You can't just cut $2,000,000,000,000 in a single year.
那将对GDP造成800个基点的逆风。
That would be an 800 basis point headwind to GDP.
这会让我们陷入衰退，甚至可能陷入类似大萧条的状态，因为你要记住，政府支出是GDP的一个组成部分。
It would throw us into a a recession, if not depression like like state because you have so remember, government spending is a component of GDP.
嗯。
Mhmm.
所以关键在于，我们的路径是什么？
And so there it's about what is the flight path?
我希望看到贝森特提出一个四到六年的计划，以实现3%的债务与GDP比率。
And I would like to see Bessent lay out this four, five, six year plan to this 3% debt to GDP ratio.
这不会在协调法案中实现，因为正如许多人讨论的那样，协调法案并不涉及自由裁量性支出。
It's not gonna happen in the reconciliation bill because, again, as as many people have discussed, the reconciliation bill does not touch discretionary spending.
这将通过刚刚提交给国会的核减法案来实现，而众议院议长表示他将对此进行投票，我预计它们会通过。
That will come by way of the rescission act that was just sent to Congress, and the speaker of the house has said that he's gonna vote on, and I expect that they will pass.
所以，你知道，我认为这些问题相当复杂。
So there's you know, I think it's a confusing set of of issues.
但明确地说，我认为我们需要让协调法案通过，因为这能延长税收减免，而我认为税收减免至关重要。
But to be clear, I think that we need to see the reconciliation bill pass because that's what extends the tax cuts, which I think are critical.
如果没有这一点，就会出现4万亿美元的增税，市场将大幅下跌。
In the absence of that, you get a $4,000,000,000,000 tax increase and markets go a lot lower.
此外，免征小费税、免征加班税、允许抵扣社会保障税，这些措施可能为经济带来3000亿到4000亿美元的新刺激。
In addition to that, the no tax on tips, the no tax on overtime, the ability to have a deduction against your Social Security taxes, that's probably 3 or $400,000,000,000 of new stimulus to the economy.
比尔，这正是能让你重回3%增长率的关键。
That's what's gonna give you the growth, Bill, to get you back to 3%.
所以，我认为作为市场参与者，我相信我们能够顺利实现这两项目标。
So I think if you're a market participant, I believe that we're gonna land the plane on both of those.
如果你相信我们能顺利落地，那么我会看到今年下半年及明年经济增速加快。
And if you believe that we're gonna land the plane, then I see accelerating economic growth in the back half of the year and into next year.
但总的来说，你要保持乐观。
But this is, you know, be optimistic.
对吧？
Right?
但事实胜于雄辩。
But but the proof is is is in the pudding.
我们得看到这些措施落地。
We've gotta see those things land there.
如果它们没有实现，我预计市场将回落10%到15%，这正是几周前我们所处的水平。
And if they don't, I expect the market will be back down 10 to 15%, which is where we were just a few weeks ago.
所以市场上仍然存在大量波动。
So there's still a lot of volatility out there.
比尔，关于十年期利率，已经有很多讨论了。
There's been a lot of talk about these the ten year rates, Bill.
是的。
Yeah.
我想指出一点，因为十年期利率从4.2%上升到4.4%、4.5%，很多人对此忧心忡忡，说这恰恰证明我们正陷入国家债务螺旋，没人愿意购买我们的债务。
And one thing I just wanna point out because the ten year rates have gone from four two to bounce back up to four four, four five, and a lot of people are hand wringing about this and and saying this just goes to prove that we're in this national, you know, debt spiral and nobody wants to buy our debt.
我只是想指出
I just wanna point
他们把美国和几年前陷入流动性危机的西班牙等国家相比较。
out think they compare them to Spain and other countries that were in, you know, liquidity crisis not too long ago.
是的。
Yeah.
但我只想指出，就像其他许多人提到的那样，过去两年里，十年期收益率一直徘徊在4%到5%之间，比尔。
But I just wanna point out, like like several other people have, yields, the ten year has been in a four to 5% range, Bill, for the last two years.
你知道，当时很多人还记得拉里·萨默斯在2022年说十年期利率会涨到7%。
And, you know, this is far like, there were people remember Larry Summers at the 2022 saying that the ten year is going to 7%.
对吧？
Right?
那正是引发我们即将面临超级通胀的原因。
That's what caused a hyper we're gonna have hyperinflation.
我们看到了什么？
What have we seen?
核心PCE刚刚公布的数值低于预期。
Core PCE just came out lower than people expected.
对吧？
Right?
我们现在的核心PCE年化率让我相信，美联储现在会降息。
We're now on a core PCE run rate that causes me to believe that the Fed will now reduce rates.
市场认为他们将在今年下半年降息两次。
The market's saying they're gonna cut rates twice in the back half of the year.
为什么？
Why?
因为我们仍然处于限制性区间。
Because we're still in restrictive territory.
美联储已经表示我们处于限制性区间。
The Fed has said we're in restrictive territory.
他们还表示，不存在新的中性利率。
They've said there's not a new neutral rate.
因此，对我来说，债券市场在当前水平下并不可怕。
And so the bond market to me at these levels is not that concerning.
说实话，我希望能就平衡预算修正案或其他实现3%目标的机制展开一场重要的全国性讨论。
Seriously, I would like an important national discussion on a balanced budget amendment or some other mechanism to get us to this 3% target.
我觉得这非常重要。
I think that's super important.
但如果你说，好吧。
But if you're if you're saying, okay.
我是否应该非常担心未来六个月利率会升至7%？
Should I be really scared that we're on a path to 7% interest rates over the course of the next six months?
不。
No.
我认为你很可能处于完全相反的位置。
I think you could very well find yourself in the exact opposite position.
我认为，如果他们通过了协调法案，达成了对华协议，并且由于通胀持续回落，下半年出现几次降息，这个市场将会高得多。
I think if they sign the reconciliation bill and they land the deal on China, right, and then you get a couple rate cuts in the back half of the year because inflation continues to come in, this market's gonna be a lot higher.
所以不要退出市场，但我认为这需要静观其变。
So don't take yourself out of the game, but I think it is a wait and see approach.
你认为中美协议达成的可能性有多大？
And what do you put the probability on the deal with China coming together?
我觉得概率相当高。
I put it as pretty high d high probability.
而且，你知道，我记得在危机最激烈的时候，CNBC问我这个问题。
And and and, you know, remember I was asked about this on CNBC in the in the heat of the crisis.
我当时说，因为特朗普让纳瓦罗和贝森特上了周日的访谈节目，而他们俩的观点截然不同。
And I said it, you know, because Trump was putting Navarro on the Sunday talk shows and Bessent, and they had two very different points of view.
我说，你有两个选择，总统必须做出决定。
And I said, you have door one, door choose, and the president's gotta choose.
对吧？
Right?
我当时就说，毕竟他写过一本叫《交易的艺术》的书。
And I said at the time, I think at the end of the day, he wrote a book called the art of the deal.
他是个谈判高手。
He is a negotiator.
他是个公平的贸易者。
He is a fair trader.
他希望为美国争取一个公平的协议。
He wants a fair deal for The United States.
他希望重新保障关键的国家产业，但我认为他并不想彻底遏制全球经济，导致经济衰退，而他是知道这一点的。
He wants to reinsure critical national industries, but I do not think he wants to slam the brakes on the global economy and put the global economy into a recession, which he knows it would.
因此，我预计我们将会与中国达成协议，但这意味着中国也必须积极主动，愿意进行谈判。
And so I expect we'll get a deal done with China, but that means that China's got to step up and be willing to deal as well.
我认为这方面的迹象相当乐观，但我们将在未来几周内获得更多信息。
I think the tea leaves read pretty pretty good on that, but but we'll know a lot more over the course of the next few
周。
weeks.
好的。
Okay.
我们会关注。
We'll watch.
好的。
Okay.
比尔，我有几个问题要快速问一下。
I have a couple a couple things for our lightning round, Bill.
好的。
Okay.
你知道，上周我们关于特拉华州这个情况进行了非常棒的讨论。
You know, you talked to we had a great discussion last week on this Delaware situation.
我认为你一直走在前面，告诉那些公司：如果你在他们的董事会里，他们必须考虑离开特拉华州。
And I think you you've been out in front on this telling companies that if you sat on their board, they gotta consider exiting Delaware.
否则，他们可能违反了受托责任。
Otherwise, they may be breaching their fiduciary duties.
我看到《财富》杂志引用了你，他们的标题是‘特拉华州出了问题’。
I saw Fortune magazine actually quoted you, wrote their headline was something's awry in Delaware.
一项新研究显示，美国小州的律师从大公司那里获得的律师费倍数高达正常时薪的66倍。
New study reveals lawyers in tiny US states are winning fee multipliers from major companies up to 66 times their normal hourly rate.
你这段关于特拉华州的视频在得到萨克斯和马斯克的推广后，获得了两百五十万次观看。
You got two and a half million views on this Delaware clip after you got a little promo from from Sachs and Elon.
但这周你收到任何反馈了吗？
But was there any feedback you got this week?
你有收到公司的回应吗？
Did you hear from companies?
它们正在重新考虑是否还要留在特拉华州吗？
Are they reconsidering whether or not they wanna be in Delaware?
哦，我觉得很多公司都在重新考虑。
Oh, I think I think a lot of companies are reconsidering.
而且，你知道，自从那以后，有两件事对我来说变得很清楚。
And and, you know, there are two there are two things that I would add that that have become clear to me, you know, since then.
但首先，人们会问，谁面临风险呢？
But but one, people talk about, well, who who is at risk here?
我觉得实际上风险最高的是那些知名度最高的公司，因为它们正是那些激进法官想要拿来做例外的target。
I I I think it's actually the highest profile companies that are at risk because they're the ones that, you know, an activist judge is gonna wanna make a a exception out of.
所以，如果你是一家市值较小的公司，也许这并不需要你立刻担心。
And so, you know, maybe maybe if you're a smaller market cap company, maybe it's not something you need to think about with urgency.
我们讨论过这个问题。
And we we discussed this.
人们选择特拉华州的原因是因为它的可预测性。
The the reason people were in Delaware is because it was predictable.
当你是一个年轻的创业者，他们说‘在特拉华州注册公司’的时候，这在某种程度上是这样的。
That was the it it's somewhat when you're a young entrepreneur and they say, oh, incorporating Delaware.
你可能会说：‘什么？’
And you're like, what?
我为什么要这么做？
Why would I do that?
有人会说：‘哦，因为他们有很长的公司法历史。’
And someone says, oh, well, they've had corporate law for a long time.
它非常可预测。
It's very predictable.
哦，原来如此。
And, oh, okay.
所以每个人都这么做。
And so everybody does it.
但这种情况已经不再成立了。
Well, that's no longer true.
因此我认为每个人都需要认真考虑这一点。
And so I think everyone has to consider it.
我另外核实了一点，我认为非常重要：我们现在生活在一个公司保持私有状态更久的时代。
The other thing that I verified that I think is really important, we live in an age where companies are staying private longer.
我认为许多创业者和董事会成员认为，与股东事件相关的诉讼只针对上市公司。
I think many entrepreneurs, many board members think that litigation around shareholder events are tied solely to public companies.
这并不正确。
That is not true.
如果你在特拉华州注册公司，你就可能被起诉。
If you're incorporated in Delaware, you can be sued.
如果你的股票在二级市场上交易更活跃，你也同样面临风险。
You know, if your shares are trading more freely in the secondary market, you're at risk as well.
所以我想说，仅仅因为你不是上市公司，并不意味着这与你无关。
And so I would just say, just because you're not public doesn't mean this shouldn't matter to you.
事实上，我可以想象，那些有激进倾向的人会特别热衷于对一家大型私营独角兽公司提起诉讼。
And in fact, I can imagine someone who has an activist bent being particularly excited about bringing a case against a private large unicorn.
你确实对此产生了影响。
You're certainly influencing it there.
我可以告诉你，那之后有几家公司问我，他们是否应该重新注册公司。
I can tell you this, I've had a couple companies ask me in the wake of that whether or not they should be reincorporating.
所以我认为，一股潮流正在形成。
So I think there is a movement afoot.
我们之前在播客中讨论过公司治理法案的另一个话题，那就是这些代理顾问公司，ISS和Glass Lewis。
Something else we talked about in relation to corporate governance bill on a prior pod, And this is these proxy advisors, ISS and Glass Lewis.
对吧？
Right?
他们垄断了向被动股东提供如何投票的建议。
They have a monopoly on giving advice, particularly to passive shareholders about how they should vote their shares
是的。
Yeah.
在年度投票中。
In in in the annual vote.
我们发现，他们在进行投票建议时，可能并非最优秀或最客观的，或者他们可能有与你利益不符的政治议程。
And we've come to discover, you know, that they're they're probably not the best and most objective when it comes to doing it, or they may have political agendas that are misaligned with your own.
哈格蒂参议员昨天发了一条推文，引起了我的注意。
Senator Hagerty had a tweet yesterday that caught my eye.
他说，两家最大的代理顾问占据了97%的市场份额。
He said the two largest proxy advisers have 97% market share.
他们掌控着数百万甚至上千万的投票权。
They wield control over millions and millions of votes.
他们已经操控了公司治理，对他们的反竞争和滥用行为进行调查早已刻不容缓。
They've hijacked corporate governance and an investigation into their anti competitor and abusive practices is long overdue.
我已经有几个月没听到这方面的消息了，你对此有什么看法？
I hadn't heard about this in in, you know, a few months, but any reactions to that?
是的。
Yeah.
我不知道你是否记得，我们早期做过一期关于股票激励的节目。
I don't know if you remember, but when we did, we did an episode early on about stock based comp.
在那之前，我曾联系过ISS，想了解他们是如何形成自己各种理念的。
And before that, I had reached out to ISS to talk about how they come up with their different, you know, philosophies.
对我来说，很明显，那里没有人从第一性原理的角度思考：董事会或薪酬委员会可以采取哪些政策或行动，来使利益与股东保持一致？
And it was very clear to me that there was no one there thinking from a first principles perspective about, you know, what are the types of policies or actions that a board could take, that a comp committee could take that would align interest with shareholders?
而且，我想，如果你管理着一只大型指数基金，比如贝莱德之类的，你在投票支持或反对不同政策时，你最应该关心的，也许唯一应该关心的，就是这些政策是否在维护股东的利益。
And, you know, I would think that if you run a large index fund, if you're BlackRock or whatever, and you're voting, you know, your shares for or against different policies, that the number one thing you should care about, perhaps the only thing you should care about is whether they're looking after the interest of shareholders.
在过去十年或二十年里，我们显然已经偏离了这一点。
And we clearly crept away from that in the past, you know, ten or twenty years.
你提到的这位参议员在发表演讲时说，这两家公司现在都有超过80%的股权由美国境外持有。
The senator that you're talking about said on on on when he was giving this talk that that these two companies are now both over 80 owned outside The US.
而且
And
哦，天哪。
Oh, wow.
而且它们都有超越我们刚才讨论内容的企业理念，而我一直认为，受托责任是所有董事会成员的首要职责，这意味着要维护股东的利益。
And that they both have corporate philosophies that extend beyond what we just talked about, which, you know, I've always I grew up in the school that fiduciary duty is the number one responsibility of all board members, and that means looking after the, you know, shareholders.
所以，我认为应该发生两件事。
And so, I think, you know, that that two things should happen.
你知道吗？
You know?
首先，我确实想知道，这将是给参议员的一个问题：为什么这么多公司如此关注这些人说的话？
First, I I I do wonder, and and this would be a question for the senator, like, why are so many companies paying attention to what these people say?
他们是仅仅忠诚吗？
Are they just loyal?
我的意思是，他们是懒惰吗？
I mean, are they just lazy?
他们不愿意自己去做这项工作吗？
Do they do they not wanna do the work themselves?
而且坦率地说，如果你管理的是指数基金，利润空间很薄，所以也许你没时间。
And and admittedly, if you run an index fund, you're on thin margins, so maybe you don't have time.
但他们应该醒悟过来，意识到自己并不仅仅是在维护股东的利益，还有其他考量。
But they should wake up and realize that they're not solely looking after the interests of shareholders, and they have other interests in mind.
讽刺的是，这又回到了政策层面：许多公司采用超级投票权的一个关键原因，正是为了防止这两家公司对他们指手画脚。
And ironically, and this gets back to policy, one of the key reasons so many companies have supervoting is so that these two companies can't tell them what to do.
因此，这很讽刺，因为大多数人认为超级投票权意味着更差的公司治理，是一种较差的治理形式。
And so, you know, it's ironic because most people think of supervoting shares as being less good governance, you know, a lesser form of good governance.
但如果这些衡量你、告诉你这些指数投资者该如何投票的公司，并不真正维护股东利益，那么你恰恰需要采取这一步，以摆脱它们。
But if these companies that are measuring you and telling, you know, index investors how to vote aren't looking after shareholder interests, then then you may need to take that step precisely to get away from them.
因此，我鼓励贝莱德和所有ETF相关机构，不要简单地按照这些人的意见投票。
And so I would encourage, you know, the BlackRocks and all the the ETF people to not just simply vote with what these people say.
也许我们需要的，是这两种模式之外的另一种选择。
And maybe what we need, maybe we need an alternative to these two things.
你和我之前讨论过SBC。
You and I have, you know, talked about SBC.
我的意思是，我认为你可以用人工智能来构建一个模型，判断哪些治理方式能与股东利益保持一致。
I mean, I think there's a number of things you could use AI that you would put into a model to to say, what is the type of good governance that aligns shareholder interest?
也许能看到这样的东西出现会很好。
And and maybe it'd be good to see something like that pop up.
我喜欢这个想法。
I love it.
我喜欢这个想法。
I love it.
我们来孵化这个想法吧，比尔。
You let's incubate that, Bill.
好的。
Okay.
我们来孵化这个想法吧。
Let let's incubate that.
外面有人吗？
Anybody out there?
我们来找找那些昨晚玩阿尔蒂米特扑克游戏的AI创始人和工程师们。
Let's find some some of the guys who are playing the AI founders and engineers who were playing in the altimeter poker game last night.
他们正在寻找点子。
They were looking for ideas.
这是个绝佳的主意。
This is a great one.
好的。
Okay.
我鼓励我们所有的听众。
Well, I would encourage any of our listeners.
可能已经有人在做了。
There may be someone already doing it.
他们已经在开发这两家公司的替代方案。
That's already working on an alternative to these two companies.
如果你正在做，请联系我们。
And if if you are, reach out to us.
我们可以资助它，帮助推广它，看到这一切会很令人兴奋。
We could we could help fund it, help promote it, and and it'd be exciting to see.
是的。
Yeah.
不。
No.
那太好了。
That'd be great.
嗯，这又是一次很好的交流，伙计。
Well, it's been another good one, buddy.
很高兴见到你。
Great seeing you.
下次再见。
Until next time.
保重。
Take care.
提醒大家一下，这只是我们的观点，不是投资建议。
As a reminder to everybody, just our opinions not investment advice.
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