“多诺里主义”的多米诺效应

你可以随时通过彭博新闻现在获取新闻。

You can get the news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.

我是艾米·莫里斯。

I'm Amy Morris.

我是凯伦·莫斯科，今天来向您介绍我们全新按需新闻报道，直接推送至您的播客订阅源。

And I'm Karen Moscow here to tell you about our new on demand news report delivered right to your podcast feed.

彭博新闻现在是一份时长五分钟的音频简报，报道当日最重要的新闻。

Bloomberg News Now is a short five minute audio report on the day's top stories.

节目全天持续发布，提供最新信息和数据，助您及时掌握动态。

Episodes are published throughout the day with the latest information and data to keep you informed.

是的。

Yes.

其他新闻机构也有类似产品，但它们通常只是全天重复播放其广播新闻。

There are other products like this from a variety of news organizations, but they usually rerun their radio newscasts throughout the day.

这并不是我们的做法。

That's not what we do.

我们制作的是仅在彭博新闻现在节目中才能收听的定制化节目。

We create customized episodes that can only be heard on Bloomberg News Now.

我们不会等上一小时才发布突发新闻。

And we don't wait an hour to publish breaking news.

一旦有新闻发生，我们会在几分钟内将节目更新到您的播客订阅源，确保您始终获取最新动态和进展。

When news breaks, we'll have an episode up on your podcast feed within minutes, so you're always getting the latest stories and developments.

从彭博社遍布全球的3000名记者和分析师那里获取报道与背景信息。

Get the reporting and the context from Bloomberg's 3,000 journalists and analysts were all over the world.

在苹果、Spotify或您收听播客的任何平台收听彭博新闻现在的最新内容。

Listen to the latest from Bloomberg News Now on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

社交媒体趋势正让一些Z世代年轻人锒铛入狱。

The social media trend is landing some Gen Zers in jail.

那位曾被进步派媒体捧为宠儿、却因公开崩溃而被解雇的名人，以及那场针对塔吉特的、毫无道理的TikTok抵制潮。

The progressive media darling whose public meltdown got her fired and the massive TikTok boycott against Target that actually make no sense.

这些网络热点故事在主流媒体上听不到，但您可以通过《布拉德对战所有人》播客了解这些，以及社交媒体和政治领域其他有趣又离奇的事件。

You won't hear about these online stories in the mainstream media, but you can keep up with them and all the other entertaining and outrageous things happening online in media and in politics with the Brad versus everyone podcast.

在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客或你收听播客的任何平台收听《布拉德对所有人》播客。

Listen to the Brad versus everyone podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

法庭不仅仅是关于正义。

The courtroom isn't just about justice.

它关乎权力、金钱，以及一些真正离奇的漏洞。

It's about power and money and some truly bizarre loopholes.

我是迈克尔·福特。

I'm Michael Foote.

我是梅丽莎·马尔布兰奇，我们推出了一档全新的法律播客，名为《短暂休庭》。

And I'm Melissa Malbranch, and we've got a brand new show called Brief Recess, a legal podcast.

每周，我们都会讨论法庭上那些离奇的故事、审理失误的案件，以及塑造我们世界的判决和裁决。

Every week, we talk about wild tales from court, trials gone wrong, and cases and rulings that shape our world.

今天，我们要聊的是被盗的古文物、梅丽莎在一次州政府拍卖中发现的种种怪事，以及我和门卫和 J.K. 罗琳的疯狂对话。

Today, we're gonna be talking about stolen antiquities, all the weird things Melissa found out in a state sale, the crazy conversations I had with a bouncer and JK Rowling.

呃。

Ugh.

化繁为简，让严肃的话题变得出人意料地有趣。

Make the complicated clear and the serious surprisingly fun.

来自Exactly Right网络，每周四更新《Brief Recess》新集。

From the Exactly Right Network, new episodes of Brief Recess drop every Thursday.

在YouTube上观看《Brief Recess》。

Watch Brief Recess on YouTube.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或您常用的播客平台收听《Brief Recess》。

Listen to Brief Recess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

彭博音频工作室，播客、广播、新闻。

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

1月2日，尼古拉斯·马杜罗在加拉加斯会见了中国官员。

On January 2, Nicolas Maduro met with Chinese officials in Caracas.

马杜罗的Instagram账户上有该会面的视频。

There's video of that meeting on Maduro's Instagram account.

旁白大力宣传中国在委内瑞拉能源、科技和基础设施领域的投资，并赞扬了两国之间的关系。

The narrator touts Chinese investment in Venezuela, in energy and technology and infrastructure, and praises the relationship between the two nations.

几小时后，马杜罗被美国特种部队抓获。

Hours later, Maduro was captured by US special forces.

这对中方来说，时机真是非常不巧。

Well, that was very unfortunate timing for the Chinese government.

我毫不怀疑，中国方面某种程度上被羞辱了。

There's no question in my mind that the Chinese, in a way, were humiliated.

尼古拉斯·伯恩斯曾作为美国外交官服务数十年，历经共和党和民主党总统，包括比尔·克林顿、乔治·W。

Nicholas Burns was a US diplomat for decades under Republican and Democratic presidents, including Bill Clinton, George W.

布什和巴拉克·奥巴马。

Bush, and Barack Obama.

他最近担任的是拜登总统时期的美国驻华大使。

Most recently, he was The US ambassador to China under President Biden.

中国和委内瑞拉之间有着中方所称的全天候战略伙伴关系，关系极为密切。

China and Venezuela have had what the Chinese call an all weather strategic partnership, a very close relationship.

伯恩斯解释说，中国曾承诺无论遇到何种危机，都会与委内瑞拉同舟共济。

China promised to stand by Venezuela through thick and thin, Burns explains, through any crisis.

但是

But

当危机来临时，中国无法保护尼古拉斯·马杜罗。

When that crisis came, the Chinese couldn't defend Nicolas Maduro.

所以我认为，坦率地说，这对中国来说既是空间的丧失，也是在委内瑞拉影响力的丧失。

So I think, frankly, this has been a loss of space and it's been a loss of influence for China, certainly in Venezuela.

我不得不想象，拉丁美洲的一些国家将开始质疑，全面拥抱中国——有些国家确实如此——是否真的符合它们的长期利益。

And I have to imagine that some countries in Latin America will begin to question whether an all encompassing embrace of China, and some of them have made that, is really in their long term interest.

我是大卫·盖雷，这是彭博新闻的重磅观点。

I'm David Guerre, and this is the big take from Bloomberg News.

今天，我们与哈佛肯尼迪学院的尼古拉斯·伯恩斯大使对话，探讨北京将如何应对美国对委内瑞拉的介入，这如何可能改变中国对台湾的策略，以及所谓的“多诺修正案”——特朗普总统对西半球的聚焦——如何可能让中国在全球舞台上占据优势。

Today, a conversation with ambassador Nicholas Burns, now a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, about how Beijing will respond to The US incursion into Venezuela, how it could change China's approach to Taiwan, and how the so called Don Ro doctrine, president Trump's focus on the Western Hemisphere, could hand China an edge on the world stage.

本周我与尼古拉斯·伯恩斯大使会面时，他提到了一篇他在2024年阅读的文章，当时他正前往拜登总统与习近平主席最后一次峰会的路上。

When I sat down with ambassador Nicholas Burns this week, he brought up an article he read in 2024 as he made his way to what ended up being the last summit meeting between president Biden and president Xi.

一篇非凡的头版报道，基本指出在2002年，美国是南美洲每个国家的首要贸易伙伴。

An extraordinary front page story, which essentially said that in 2002, The United States was the leading trade partner of every country in South America.

但到2024年，中华人民共和国已成为南美洲所有国家的主要贸易伙伴，当时唯一的例外是哥伦比亚。

But by 2024, the People's Republic Of China was the leading trade partner of every country in South America with the exception at that time of Colombia.

伯恩斯说，这生动地展现了中国为争夺在拉丁美洲的影响力所做出的巨大投入，而委内瑞拉一直是这一战略的关键部分。

It illustrated vividly, Byrne says, the extraordinary commitment China has made to compete for influence in Latin America, and Venezuela has been a key part of that.

近二十年来，中国向该国提供了数百亿美元的贷款，而委内瑞拉则用石油来支付这些贷款的利息。

Over nearly two decades, China has loaned the country tens of billions of dollars, and Venezuela has paid interest on those loans with oil.

我向伯恩斯大使询问了中国对尼古拉斯·马杜罗被俘以及特朗普政府声称将控制委内瑞拉石油出口的反应。

I asked ambassador Burns about how China responded to the capture of Nicolas Maduro and to the Trump administration's assertion it's going to control the flow of oil from Venezuela.

马杜罗事件后，中国在南美洲的政策重点会因此发生怎样的变化？

How do its policy priorities in South America change as a result of of what happened to Maduro?

中国肯定会继续竞争。

Well, the Chinese are gonna compete.

美国只是说一句‘退出拉丁美洲’，中国就不会在新的门罗主义下退让。

They're not gonna leave the field in a new Monroe doctrine just because The United States has said move out of Latin America.

我实际上非常理解这种观点：我们确实应该在拉丁美洲等地，对中国的更具竞争性的行动进行反制。

I actually have a lot of sympathy for the view that we should push back against the more competitive Chinese actions against The United States, certainly in in Latin America.

例如，特朗普政府正确地指出，在巴拿马运河，一家中国国有企业不应当控制入口港口。

For instance, the Trump administration has been right to say in the Panama Canal that a Chinese state company shouldn't control the entry ports.

从美国国家安全的角度来看，这完全是合理的。

That just makes sense from an American national security standpoint.

但他们一定会竞争。

But they will compete.

中国是委内瑞拉的主要债权人。

China is a major creditor to Venezuela.

如果在未来六到十二个月内稳定委内瑞拉的解决方案涉及大规模债务谈判，中国将要求参与其中。

And if part of the solution to try to stabilize Venezuela in the next six to twelve months turns out to be a big debt negotiation, China will demand a seat at the table.

他们还会寻找美国与委内瑞拉关系中的裂痕，并极其功利地加以利用。

They'll also look for fissures in The US relationship with Venezuela and try to exploit you know, very cynically.

中国曾是这一残酷政权——马杜罗政权——的重要支持者。

China was a major supporter of this brutal regime, the Maduro regime.

许多掌管这个政权的人至今仍身居要职。

Many of the people who ran that machine are still in place.

因此，我认为他们会试图分化美国与该政权的关系。

And so I think they'll look to see if they can divide The United States from that regime.

所以我认为他们不会放弃，这一切都是美中之间多年来持续进行的全球竞争的一部分。

And so I don't think they're gonna quit, and this is all part of this global competition that's been underway for many years now between The US and China.

特朗普总统的注意力很大程度上集中在委内瑞拉的石油上，并且将继续如此。

So much of president Trump's focus has been on and continues to be on Venezuela's oil.

你刚才提到委内瑞拉欠中国的债务，之前确实存在一个以油换债的计划。

You were talking about the debt that Venezuela is into China, and there was this oil for debt program that was in place.

如今，石油对中国的意义有多重要？

How critical is that oil to China today?

我认为，这更多是象征意义，而非实际意义上的重要。

I think it's more symbolically important than it is in real terms.

中国从委内瑞拉进口的石油约占其全球总进口量的4%。

Chinese imports of Venezuelan oil represent about 4% of China's total imports around the world.

因此，从战略角度看，这并不特别重要，但我认为，对中国而言，政治上不能被排除在这个市场之外至关重要。

So it's not that strategically important, but I think it's politically important for them that they not be shut out of that market.

但毫无疑问，中国非常有兴趣开发整个南美市场。

But, certainly, China is very interested in developing the entire South American market.

以巴西为例，中国在电动汽车领域和购买巴西大豆方面已经取得了非凡的进展。

If you think of Brazil, for instance, where China has made extraordinary inroads, with Chinese electric vehicles, with Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans.

因此，我认为你会看到中国企业加大在南美多个领域的投资，看看他们能否成功，这将非常有趣。

And so I think you'll see the Chinese ramp up their state enterprise investment in many different parts of South America, and it's gonna be interesting to watch to see if they can be successful.

正如你所提到的，在这一切展开的过程中，中国很可能希望获得一席之地。

As you mentioned, China likely wants a seat at the table as as all of this unfolds.

中国外交部发言人在新闻发布会上表示，中国在委内瑞拉的合法权益必须得到保护。

A spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry said at a press conference, the lawful rights and interests of China in Venezuela must be protected.

中国担心自己可能失去对它们帮助建设的项目的访问权，这有多大的担忧？

How big a concern is that to the Chinese that they could lose access to what they helped build?

这将使中国在规划未来路径时处于什么位置？

Where does that leave China in trying to plot a path forward?

我认为这里有两个中国的担忧，但我对其中任何一个都不抱同情。

Well, I think there are two Chinese concerns here, and I don't have sympathy for either of them.

一是，他们不希望看到在南美洲，甚至整个拉丁美洲的贸易和投资活动出现急剧下滑，因为他们将这一地区视为一个至关重要的市场，既用于进口关键粮食，也用于拓展其最具竞争力的产业。

One is, again, they don't want to see a dramatic decline in their trade and investment activities in South America, I would say even Latin America, because they see it as such a major market, both in importing critical foodstuffs, but also in terms of making inroads for their most competitive industries.

但其次，这可能会反而帮助美国，比如帮助斯科特·贝森在贸易、关税和供应链谈判中对中国施压。

But secondly, this may turn out to help The United States and help Scott Besson, for instance, in his trade, tariff, and supply chain negotiations with the Chinese.

正如你所知，美国和中国之间存在着一种因2025年异常激烈的关税和供应链战争而形成的真相，但这种真相极不稳定。

There's a truth, as you know, between The United States and China from the extraordinary tariff and supply chain wars of two thousand twenty five, but it's a very unstable truth.

因此，如果美国因在委内瑞拉的这一干预而突然掌控了石油产业，这可能会在中美相互较劲的过程中帮助美国。

And so if The United States suddenly, because of this intervention in Venezuela, has a lock on the oil industry, that's gonna help perhaps The United States as the Chinese and The United States try to one up each other.

当然，我希望美国能够取得成功。

And, certainly, I hope The United States can be successful.

我完全不支持中国。

I'm not rooting for China at all.

作为前大使，我亲眼目睹过他们多么迅速地对中国企业采取不公平的贸易做法，我希望政府在供应链问题上，以及在关税问题上，也能够取得成功。

Having served as ambassador, I've seen how quick they are to deploy unfair trade practices against our own companies, and I I hope the administration can be successful certainly on the supply chain issue as well as on tariffs.

你提到了中国在整个大陆所扮演的角色。

You mentioned the the role that China is playing across the continent.

你能把委内瑞拉在其中的作用说清楚一点吗？

Can can you put into context Venezuela's role in that?

我认为，这是俄罗斯、中国和其他一些专制国家联合支持加拉加斯非法政权的结果。

Well, I think it's a it was a function of both Russia, China, and other authoritarian countries coalescing to support an unlawful regime in Caracas.

马杜罗窃取了2024年的选举。

Maduro stole the election of twenty twenty four.

他并不是合法的领导人，但习近平和弗拉基米尔·普京却公开支持他。

He wasn't a legitimate leader, and yet he had his support, very overt political support, from Xi Jinping from Vladimir Putin.

因此，我认为从这个角度看，这些专制政权的影响力受到了削弱，这是一个非常积极的进展。

And so I think in this sense, it's been a loss of influence for all those authoritarians, which is a very positive development.

这就是他们失去的东西。

And that's what they've lost.

他们现在陷入了迷茫。

They are now at sea.

他们的其他主要支持者中，古巴最为突出，我们看到了当美国特种部队完全胜出时发生了什么。

And some of their other primary supporters, Cuba being the most notable, where we saw what happened when the US special forces outmaneuvered completely.

古巴的普雷托里安卫队围绕着尼古拉斯·马杜罗，以及特朗普总统对古巴所作出的威胁。

The Cuban Praetorian Guard around Nicolas Maduro and the threat that president Trump has made against Cuba.

这必须集中在哈瓦那部署水雷。

It has to be concentrating mines in Havana.

所以我认为，这里的局势已经稍微逆转了。

So I think the tables have been turned a little bit here.

在全球竞争中，这些极其自信的威权势力——中国、俄罗斯、朝鲜和伊朗——尤其是伊朗人，以及作为西半球一部分的委内瑞拉人，局势已经对他们不利。

In the global competition, these very self confident authoritarian powers, China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, the tables have been turned against certainly the Iranians, certainly the Venezuelans as part of this in the Western Hemisphere.

因此，我们得等几年历史尘埃落定后，才能知道这一切最终会如何发展。

And so, you know, we're not gonna know how this all plays out until several years of history have passed.

但这确实是中国在西半球影响力的重大削弱。

But this has been a dramatic diminution of Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere.

我想转到所谓的多诺 doctrine 上。

Well, I wanna turn to to what's being called the Donro doctrine.

他们现在称之为多诺文件。

They now call it the Donro document.

我不知道。

I don't know.

这是门罗主义。

It's a Monroe doctrine.

我们一度忘了它。

We sort of forgot about it.

它曾经非常重要，但我们忘了它。

It was very important, but we forgot about it.

在我们新的总统领导下，我们不会再忽视它了。

We don't forget about it anymore under our new

特朗普总统毫不掩饰地表示，他希望专注于西半球。

President Trump making no bones about the fact that he wants to focus on the the Western Hemisphere.

这如何改变中国的外交政策？

How does that change China's approach to foreign policy?

好吧，中国人现在明白，游戏规则已经改变，特朗普总统领导下的美国将大力反击中国影响力的各个方面。

Well, the Chinese now know that the game has been changed, that The United States under president Trump is gonna be very aggressive in pushing back against aspects of Chinese influence.

这就是特朗普在《国家安全战略报告》中提出的门罗主义新修正案的真正含义。

That's what this new Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine that was announced in the National Security Strategy Report, that's what that means.

但我认为，如果特朗普政府不再只谈论石油，而是更多地强调美国真正的实力，他们会更有效。

But I think that the Trump administration would be more effective if they stopped talking just about oil and they started talking more about the real strength of The United States.

总统几乎只谈到了石油对美国的收益。

The president has talked almost solely about the petroleum oil benefits to The United States.

我认为，过去一个世纪里的大多数美国总统，如果不是所有的话，都会说：我们希望整个美洲 hemisphere 由法治社会、由人民选举产生的政府来治理。

I think most American presidents, if not all American presidents for the last century would have said, we want the hemisphere to be governed by rule of law societies, by governments that are elected by the people of the country.

我们尊重人权。

We human rights honored.

这是特朗普政府政策中的一个明显疏漏。

That's a glaring omission in the policy of the Trump administration.

如果美国被看作只关心你们的资源，那么这对委内瑞拉或中美洲、南美洲的普通民众来说，将缺乏吸引力。

And it's not gonna be attractive, at least to average people in Venezuela or other parts of Central And South America if The United States is seen to be saying, we only care about your resources.

接下来，谈谈特朗普对委内瑞拉的介入如何影响习近平和普京，以及它如何塑造特朗普对格陵兰的构想。

Coming up, how president Trump's incursion in Venezuela could influence presidents Xi and Putin, and how it's shaping president Trump's designs on Greenland.

Bloomberg Daybreak 是您每天早晨通过播客频道获取最新资讯的最佳方式。

Bloomberg Daybreak is your best way to get informed first thing in the morning right in your podcast feed.

嗨。

Hi.

我是凯伦·莫斯科。

I'm Karen Moscow.

我是内森·哈格。

And I'm Nathan Hager.

每天早晨，我们都会早早起床，制作Bloomberg Daybreak美国版的最新一期节目。

Each morning, we're up early putting together the latest episode of Bloomberg Daybreak US edition.

这是您每日15分钟的播客，为您带来全球新闻、政治和国际关系的最新动态。

It's your daily fifteen minute podcast on the latest in global news, politics, and international relations.

每天早晨收听Bloomberg Daybreak美国版播客，了解重要新闻并获得您所需的背景信息。

Listen to the Bloomberg Daybreak US edition podcast each morning for the stories that matter with the context you need.

您可以在Apple、Spotify或任何您收听播客的平台找到我们。

Find us on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

这个社交媒体潮流让一些Z世代年轻人进了监狱

The social media trend that's landing some Gen Zers in

监狱。

jail.

这个

The

那位曾被进步派媒体捧为偶像、却因公开崩溃而被解雇的女性。

progressive media darling whose public meltdown got her fired.

我要彻底把弗朗切斯科从网络上撤掉。

I'm gonna take Francesco off the network entirely.

这场针对塔吉特的大规模TikTok抵制行动毫无实际意义。

The massive TikTok boycott against Target that makes no actual sense.

我还会继续从塔吉特买东西，而且我还会继续不付钱。

I will continue getting stuff from Target, and I will continue to not pay for it.

还有那些前往白宫却以尴尬收场的MAGA网红。

And the MAGA influencers whose trip to the White House ended in embarrassment.

能有这样一位聪明且表达清晰的新闻秘书，真是令人耳目一新，相比过去几年。

So refreshing to have the press secretary after the last few years who's both intelligent and articulate.

这些网络上的故事你不会在主流媒体上听到，但你可以通过我——布拉德·帕卢莫主持的《布拉德对所有人》播客，持续关注这些以及网络、政治中发生的其他有趣又离谱的事件。

You won't hear about these online stories in the mainstream media, but you can keep up with them and all the other entertaining and outrageous things happening online in media and in politics with the Brad versus Everyone podcast hosted by me, Brad Palumbo.

每周七天，我都会带你经历互联网上最疯狂的迪卢洛观点，以独立视角批评双方的极端行为。

Every day of the week, I bring you on a wild ride through the most Dilulo takes on the Internet, criticizing the extremes of both sides from an independent perspective.

加入这场疯狂吧，在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客或你收听播客的任何平台收听《布拉德对所有人》播客。

Join in on the insanity and listen to the Brad versus everyone podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

美国对委内瑞拉的军事封锁以及对尼古拉斯·马杜罗的逮捕，让其他国家感到紧张。

The US military blockade of Venezuela and the apprehension of Nicolas Maduro has put other countries on edge.

特朗普总统已向古巴发出警告，并暗示美国可能对墨西哥的贩毒集团采取行动。

President Trump has put Cuba on notice, and he suggested The US could strike cartels in Mexico.

还有格陵兰。

And then there's Greenland.

当特朗普总统谈到格陵兰时，他常常会提到中国。

When president Trump talks about Greenland, he often brings up China.

他毫无根据地声称格陵兰附近有中国驱逐舰，这是他在上周于白宫会见石油高管时所说的话。

He's made unsupported claims that there are Chinese destroyers off Greenland, and here's what he said when he met with oil executives last week at the White House.

我和习近平主席相处得非常好。

I get along very well with president Xi.

我计划四月去中国，但我并不希望中国成为格陵兰的邻居。

I'm gonna go over to China in April, but I don't want them as a neighbor in Greenland.

这不可能发生。

Not gonna happen.

而且

And

你认为特朗普总统对格陵兰的意图在多大程度上与中国的因素有关？

To what degree are president Trump's designs on Greenland, do you think, tied to to China?

这很难说，因为特朗普政府对这一明显有问题的聚焦格陵兰的立场提供了多种不同的解释。

Well, it's hard to know because there are so many different explanations being offered by the Trump administration about this really problematic focus on Greenland.

我就说这一点。

And I just say this.

毫无疑问，由于亚洲与大西洋之间的航道在夏季现已通航，这构成了一个长期的战略威胁。

There's no question that there is a longer term strategic threat given the fact that the passageway between Asia and the Atlantic is now navigable in the summer months.

尤其是来自俄罗斯的威胁更大。

There is more of a threat, particularly from Russia.

这种合作具有非常重大的战略意义。

Agreement is very strategic.

我们必须遏制并威慑俄罗斯。

We have to contain and deter Russia.

但实现这一目标的方式是通过北约联盟开展合作。

But the way to do that is to work through the NATO alliance.

有一个由八个北极国家组成的北极理事会。

There is an Arctic Council of the eight Arctic countries.

俄罗斯是其成员之一。

Russia is a member.

其他七个成员都是北约成员，包括作为丹麦王国一部分的丹麦和格陵兰，以及美国。

The other seven members are all members of NATO, including Denmark and Greenland as part of the Danish Kingdom and, of course, The United States.

因此，如果这里的担忧是俄罗斯构成威胁，而中国可能是长期的战略伙伴，那么应对之道就是保持北约的团结。

So if the concern here is that there is a threat from Russia and if maybe in the long term strategic partner, China, the way to deal with it is to have a united NATO.

这七个国家，包括美国，与丹麦及其他国家合作，而不是试图通过武力购买或夺取丹麦——这个值得信赖的北约盟友——的格陵兰。

And seven of those nations, including The United States, working with Denmark and others and not attempting to buy or acquire by force Greenland from a vaunted and very reliable NATO ally, Denmark.

如果你仔细想想，我在2001年至2005年期间担任驻北约大使。

And if you think about this, I was ambassador to NATO between 2001 and 2005.

我清楚地记得那天下午9点11分，在布鲁塞尔我们看到纽约双子塔倒塌、三千人遇难的情景。

I remember very clearly what happened on 09:11 that afternoon in Brussels as we looked at the Twin Towers falling in New York, 3000 people dead.

我们目睹了五角大楼遭到袭击。

We looked at the Pentagon being attacked.

丹麦大使给我打电话，说他们与我们站在一起。

And the Danish ambassador called me and said they were with us.

他们会保卫我们。

They would defend us.

他们会启动北约条约第五条。

They would invoke article five of the NATO treaty.

针对一国的攻击就是针对所有国家的攻击，我们第二天就采取了行动。

Attack on one is an attack on all, which we did the next day.

丹麦人进入了阿富汗，并承受了更高的伤亡率。

The Danes went into Afghanistan, suffered a higher level of casualties.

按人均计算，他们在所有派遣部队的国家中，士兵阵亡和受伤的比例最高。

On a per capita basis, they suffered the most of any of the troop contributing nations in terms of the numbers of people of their soldiers who were killed and were wounded.

他们真正地与我们站在一起。

They really stood with us.

而现在，突然间我们面临这种情况，很难相信我们竟已走到这一步——北约的主导成员国竟威胁要用武力对付另一个北约盟友。

And now suddenly, we have a situation, and it's hard to believe we've come to this point where the leading member of NATO is threatening another NATO member with military force.

如果特朗普政府试图动用武力占领格陵兰，这将摧毁北约。

That will break NATO If the Trump administration tries to use military force to occupy Greenland, that will be the end of NATO.

这将对美国造成不可挽回的损害。

It will cause irreparably harm to The United States.

这将成为我们历史上耻辱的一章，我坚信特朗普政府最终会找到办法，放弃特朗普总统关于格陵兰的这一荒谬主张。

It will be a shameful episode in our history, and I've gotta believe that the Trump administration is gonna find a way to back down from this ludicrous claim that president Trump has made to Greenland itself.

最近，记者克里斯托弗·比姆在《彭博商业周刊》上发表了一篇文章，他提出了一个我认为非常有趣的观点，即这一举动可能反噬美国。

The journalist Christopher Beam wrote a piece for Bloomberg Businessweek recently, and he made what I think is, a really interesting point about how this could backfire on The US.

他写道，特朗普总统对委内瑞拉的非传统干预，反而让中国看起来像是那个理智的成年人。

He wrote president Trump's norm busting incursion in Venezuela makes China look like the adult in the room.

这强化了中国在该地区作为冷静、可预测的商业伙伴的形象。

This reinforces the country's reputation in the region as a calm, predictable partner with whom one can do business.

你同意这个观点吗？

Do you agree with that?

这正是中国试图暗示的，不仅仅是暗示。

Well, it's what the Chinese are trying to insinuate, not just insinuate.

中国声称，自己是二战后建立的国际秩序的捍卫者。

China is saying, we are the defender of the international order that was established after the Second World War.

我们是谨慎且负责任的一方，而美国则是不稳定因素的推手。

We are the cautious and responsible party, and The United States is an agent of instability.

这是中国的一种诡辩。

That's a little bit of sophistry from the Chinese.

中国目前正在以武力威胁台湾。

The Chinese are threatening Taiwan with military force as we speak.

中国已从越南和菲律宾手中非法侵占了南海的南沙群岛和西沙群岛。

The Chinese have stolen in the Spratly And Paracel Islands of the South China Sea territory from both Vietnam and The Philippines.

中国正在东海地区对日本控制的尖阁诸岛进行骚扰。

The Chinese are harassing Japan over Japanese control of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

中国一直在喜马拉雅边境地区质疑印度的主权。

The Chinese have been contesting Indian sovereignty on their border in the Himalayas.

这就像锅笑壶黑。

So it's like the plot calling the kettle black.

几个月前，南非举办了一次会议，中国出席了，南非和我们全球的主要盟友却都缺席了。

You know, there was a meeting several months ago that the South Africans hosted, and, of course, the Chinese were there and the South Africans and most of our major allies in the world and The United States stayed away.

如果我们继续单边行动，继续把欧洲盟友当作世界问题的根源来训斥，却对中俄不够强硬，我认为这些威权政权将在全球舆论中进一步赢得关于谁才是不稳定因素的认同。

If we continue to act unilaterally and if we continue to lecture the European allies as if they're the problem of the world and yet not be tough enough in our rhetoric towards both China and Russia, I think that these authoritarian regimes are going to make more inroads in global public opinion about who's the agent of instability and who isn't.

我从不认为特朗普总统是个孤立主义者。

I would never call President Trump an isolationist.

他不是。

He's not.

他绝对是个干预主义者。

He's certainly an interventionist.

但我认为，当美国与我们的盟友合作并通过它们时，我们会更强大，比如我们的北约盟友丹麦，以及东亚的盟友日本、韩国、菲律宾，还有我们的战略伙伴印度和澳大利亚。

But The United States, I think, is strongest when we're working with and through our allies, our NATO allies like Denmark and East Asia, our allies like Japan, South Korea, The Philippines, our strategic partner, India, Australia.

我真心希望特朗普政府能回归自杜鲁门和艾森豪威尔以来每一位总统都取得巨大成功的做法，即美国领导着中国和俄罗斯所没有的这些联盟。

I really hope the Trump administration will get back to what has been so successful for every president since Truman and Eisenhower, and that is The United States leads these alliances that China and Russia do not have.

这是我们相对于他们的战略优势。

That's our strategic advantage over them.

但如果我们把它们推远，我们就会削弱自己。

But if we drive them away, then we weaken ourselves.

你提到了台湾，我想知道美国对委内瑞拉的干预是否改变了习近平对台湾的策略。

You mentioned Taiwan, and I'm curious how The US intervention in Venezuela might have changed president Xi's approach to to Taiwan.

记者大卫·桑格上周在《纽约时报》的采访中向特朗普总统询问了这个问题。

The reporter, David Sanger, asked president Trump about this during an interview he and his colleagues at the New York Times conducted last week.

桑格问

Sanger asked

您是否创造了可能日后会后悔的先例？

Have you created a precedent that you may come to regret later on?

没有。

No.

因为这确实是一个真实的威胁。

Because this is this was a real threat.

得到

Get

但特朗普补充说，台湾是习近平总统的骄傲之源。

it But Trump added, Taiwan is, quote, a source of pride for president Xi.

他认为台湾是中国的一部分，至于他会怎么做，那是他的事。

He considers it to be a part of China, and, that's up to him what he's gonna be doing.

但是，你知道，我

But, you know, I

特朗普总统表示，我已经向他表达过，如果他这样做——即入侵台湾——我会非常不高兴。

President Trump said, I've expressed to him that I would be very unhappy if he did that, meaning invaded Taiwan.

我不认为他会这么做。

I don't think he'll do that.

我希望他不要这么做。

I hope he doesn't.

所以，你不认为你树立了一个先例吗？

So you don't think you set a precedent?

他以后可能会这么做。

He may do it after.

你认为，借用大卫·桑格的问题，特朗普总统是否在这里树立了一个他日后可能会后悔的先例？

Do you think, to borrow David Sanger's question, president Trump has created a precedent here he may come to regret later on?

这是一个危险的滑坡。

It is a slippery float.

我认为中国人并不认为中国人民解放军已准备好入侵台湾，至少尚未准备好发起跨海峡的联合军事行动——涉及海军舰艇、潜艇和飞机的协同作战极其困难。

I don't think the Chinese feel that the People's Liberation Army is ready to invade Taiwan, at least not ready to mount a cross strait invasion, a combined forces operation of naval vessels, of submarines, aircraft is extraordinarily difficult to do.

而台湾方面当然一直在关注乌克兰人如何通过无人机作战和情报行动抵御规模更大的俄罗斯军队。

And the Taiwanese, of course, have been watching the Ukrainians in the ways the Ukrainians have held off a much larger Russian army through drone warfare, through intelligence operations.

因此，我认为中国人对此心存疑虑。

And so I think there's a doubt in the Chinese mind about that.

但毫无疑问，习近平希望将台湾直接置于中华人民共和国的控制之下。

But there's no question that Xi Jinping wants to bring Taiwan under the control directly of the People's Republic Of China.

如果他将来某一天试图这样做，他很可能会援引美国在委内瑞拉的做法作为借口。

And should he attempt to do that at some point in the future, he may well use what The United States did in Venezuela to justify.

美国既然能入侵一个联合国主权成员国，这就是中国的说法。

Well, if The United States can invade a sovereign member of the United Nations, that's the Chinese line.

当然，我们有权利收回他们错误地认为属于中华人民共和国的领土。

Of course, we have the right to take back what they believe incorrectly is a territory of the People's Republic Of China.

我认为，这也让普京关于声称乌克兰领土的论点——至少在某些人看来，不是你，也不是我——显得更有说服力了。

I think it also makes Putin's argument about wanting to claim Ukrainian territory, at least, you know, in the minds of some people, not you, not me, a more plausible explanation of what they're trying to do.

因此，我们正在为他们提供一种战术优势，使他们能够更好地阐述自己的战略：对中国而言是台湾，对俄罗斯而言是乌克兰。

So we're giving them a tactical advantage in how they describe what their own strategies are for in the case of China, Taiwan, in the case of Russia, Ukraine.

美国这样做是非常不明智的。

And that's very ill advised for The United States to be doing.

伯恩斯大使，非常感谢您。

Ambassador Burns, thank you very much.

大卫，谢谢。

David, thank you.

总是很愉快。

Always a pleasure.

这是彭博新闻的主要观点。

This is the big take from Bloomberg News.

我是大卫·古拉。

I'm David Gura.

本节目由我、胡安和莎拉·霍尔德主持。

The show is hosted by me, Juan and Sarah Holder.

本节目由亚伦·爱德华兹、大卫·福克斯、埃莉诺·哈里森·登盖特、帕蒂·赫希、蕾切尔·刘易斯·克里斯基、娜奥米·吴、朱莉娅·普雷斯、特蕾西·塞缪尔森、娜奥米·沙万、亚历克斯·古拉、朱莉娅·韦弗、杨阳和安田隆哉制作。

The show is made by Aaron Edwards, David Fox, Eleanor Harrison Dengate, Patty Hirsch, Rachel Lewis Krisky, Naomi Ng, Julia Press, Tracy Samuelson, Naomi Schavan, Alex Agura, Julia Weaver, Yang Yang, and Taka Yasuzawa.

要获取更多《重大观点》内容并享受对所有 bloomberg.com 内容的无限制访问，请今天在 bloomberg.com/podcastoffer 订阅。

To get more from the big take and unlimited access to all of bloomberg.com, subscribe today at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

我们下周一再见。

We'll be back on Monday.

我是斯嘉丽·福。

This is Scarlet Fu.

我是保罗·斯威尼，诚邀您收听彭博情报播客。

And I'm Paul Sweeney inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast.

每天，我们利用彭博情报的力量，为您深入剖析推动市场的公司，从苹果这样的上市公司，到像 OpenAI 这样虽为私营但全球皆知的企业。

Every day, we harness the power of Bloomberg Intelligence to bring you deep dives into the companies that are moving markets from publicly traded companies like Apple to those that are privately owned but known by everyone on Earth like OpenAI.

斯嘉丽，我参与了彭博情报如今的建设，现在我们的分析师是全球顶尖的，覆盖了两千多家全球公司。

Now I helped to build Bloomberg Intelligence to what it is today, Scarlett, and now our analysts are the best in the world, covering more than 2,000 global companies.

这正是你的遗产，保罗，我们每天都与这些内部专家交流。

That is your legacy, Paul, and we speak to those in house experts every day.

他们是彭博在各行业、公司和法律流程方面的首选权威。

They are Bloomberg's go to authorities on sectors, companies, and legal processes.

我们每天工作日实时进行这些分析，并将最精彩的对话收录在每日播客中。

And we do it all live each weekday then bring you the best conversations in our daily podcast.

请务必在YouTube、Apple、Spotify或您收听播客的任何平台搜索‘彭博情报’。

So be sure to search for Bloomberg Intelligence on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

在下班回家的下午时段收听，补上您在工作日错过的市场资讯。

Listen in the afternoons on your way home from work to catch up on the market news you missed during the business day.

这就是彭博情报播客。

That is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast.

我是Scarlet Fu。

I'm Scarlet Fu.

我是Paul Sweeney。

And I'm Paul Sweeney.

今天就在您收听播客的任何平台订阅吧。

Subscribe today wherever you get your podcast.

社交媒体趋势正让一些Z世代年轻人入狱。

Social media trend is landing some Gen Zers in jail.

那位曾被进步媒体捧为宠儿、却因公开崩溃而被解雇的人，以及那场毫无意义的TikTok对Target的大规模抵制。

The progressive media darling whose public meltdown got her fired, and the massive TikTok boycott against Target that actually makes no sense.

这些网络上的故事主流媒体不会报道，但你可以通过《Brad vs Everyone》播客了解这些，以及网络、媒体和政治中其他有趣又离奇的事件。

You won't hear about these online stories in the mainstream media, but you can keep up with them and all the other entertaining and outrageous things happening online in media and in politics with the Brad versus everyone podcast.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或你收听播客的任何平台收听《Brad vs Everyone》播客。

Listen to the Brad versus everyone podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

法庭不仅仅是关于正义。

The courtroom isn't just about justice.

它关乎权力与金钱，以及一些真正离奇的法律漏洞。

It's about power and money and some truly bizarre loopholes.

我是迈克尔·福特。

I'm Michael Foot.

我是梅丽莎·马尔布兰奇，我们推出了一档全新的法律播客《Brief Recess》。

And I'm Melissa Malbranch, and we've got a brand new show called Brief Recess, a legal podcast.

每周，我们都会讨论法庭上的离奇故事、审理失误的案件，以及塑造我们世界的判决和裁决。

Every week, we talk about wild tales from court, trials gone wrong, and cases and rulings that shape our world.

今天，我们要聊的是被盗的古董，梅丽莎在一次州政府拍卖中发现的种种怪事，还有我和保安以及J.K.罗琳的疯狂对话。

Today, we're gonna be talking about stolen antiquities, all the weird things Melissa found out in a state sale, crazy the conversations I had with a bouncer and JK Rowling.

哎呀。

Ugh.

我们让复杂的事情变得清晰，让严肃的话题变得出人意料地有趣。

We make the complicated clear and the serious surprisingly fun.

来自Exactly Right网络，Brief Recess的新集数每周四上线。

From the Exactly Right Network, new episodes of Brief Recess drop every Thursday.

在YouTube上观看Brief Recess。

Watch Brief Recess on YouTube.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或您收听播客的任何平台收听Brief Recess。

Listen to Brief Recess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.