Big Technology Podcast - AI收入激增,达里奥备忘录,麦当劳CEO的婴儿汉堡咬痕 封面

AI收入激增,达里奥备忘录,麦当劳CEO的婴儿汉堡咬痕

AI Revenue Explodes, Dario’s Memo, McDonald's CEO’s Baby Burger Bite

本集简介

来自Margins的Ranjan Roy再次回归,与我们共同探讨最新科技动态。本期内容包括:1) OpenAI年化收入突破250亿美元,Anthropic达190亿美元 2) 这些ARR数据可信吗?3) OpenAI惊人的营收预期 4) 苹果这步棋真的下对了吗?5) 我们需要一支蒂姆·库克机械爪手的苹果广告 6) AI实验室IPO正在酝酿,S-1文件会披露什么?7) Anthropic仍与五角大楼保持接触 8) 达里奥的内部备忘录 9) 等等,这其实是Anthropic的营销手段?10) 还是对AI监控的真实担忧?11) 麦当劳CEO意外走红的瞬间 --- 喜欢《大科技》播客吗?请在您常用的播客平台为我们打出五星好评 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐。 想获取Substack+Discord版《大科技》订阅优惠?首年可享25%折扣:https://www.bigtechnology.com/subscribe?coupon=0843016b 了解更多广告选择,请访问 megaphone.fm/adchoices

双语字幕

仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。

Speaker 0

随着OpenAI和Anthropic的业务迅猛增长,人工智能收入正在爆炸式增长。

AI revenue is exploding as OpenAI and Anthropic's businesses skyrocket.

Speaker 0

尽管CEO达里奥·阿莫德在一份内部备忘录中写下了一些尖锐的言辞,Anthropic仍在继续与五角大楼接触。

Anthropic is continuing to talk to the Pentagon even as CEO Dario Amode writes some choice words in an internal memo.

Speaker 0

麦当劳的首席执行官咬了一小口巨大的汉堡,样子非常可爱。

And the McDonald's CEO takes a very cute baby bite of a big burger.

Speaker 0

接下来,在本周末的大型科技播客节目中,我们将为您呈现这一内容。

That's coming up on a big technology podcast Friday edition right after this.

Speaker 1

财政负责、金融天才、货币魔术师。

Fiscally responsible, financial geniuses, monetary magicians.

Speaker 1

这些是人们在谈到那些将车险转投Progressive并节省数百美元的司机时常说的话。

These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds.

Speaker 1

因为Progressive为一次性付清保费、拥有房产等提供折扣。

Because Progressive offers discounts for paying in full, owning a home, and more.

Speaker 1

此外,当您需要帮助时,可以信赖他们出色的客户服务,让您的每一分钱都更有价值。

Plus, you can count on their great customer service to help when you need it, so your dollar goes a long way.

Speaker 1

访问 progressive.com,看看你能否在汽车保险上省钱。

Visit progressive.com to see if you could save on car insurance.

Speaker 1

Progressive 伤害保险公司及其关联公司,潜在节省金额因情况而异,并非在所有州或情况下都可用。

Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates, potential savings will vary, not available in all states or situations.

Speaker 2

这里是迈克尔·刘易斯。

Michael Lewis here.

Speaker 2

我的畅销书《大空头》讲述了2008年美国房地产市场泡沫形成与破裂的故事。

My bestselling book, The Big Short, tells the story of the buildup and birth of The US housing market back in 2008.

Speaker 2

十年前,《大空头》被拍成了获得奥斯卡奖的电影,现在我首次将其制作成有声书,由尤鲁斯·特鲁利倾情朗读。

A decade ago, The Big Short was made into an Academy Award winning movie, and now I'm bringing it to you for the first time as an audiobook narrated by Eurus Truly.

Speaker 2

《大空头》的故事——押注市场反向走势的意义,以及谁真正为失控的金融体系买单——在今天比以往任何时候都更相关。

The Big Short story, what it means to bet against the market, and who really pays for an unchecked financial system is as relevant today as it's ever been.

Speaker 2

现在就前往 pushkin.fm/audiobooks 或在任何有声书平台获取《大空头》。

Get the Big Short now at pushkin.fm/audiobooks or wherever audiobooks are sold.

Speaker 0

欢迎收听《大科技》播客周五版,我们将以我们一贯冷静、细致且富有深度的方式解析新闻。

Welcome to Big Technology podcast Friday edition where we break down the news in our traditional, cool headed, and nuanced format.

Speaker 0

这周,我们得以一窥——实际上是全面了解了人工智能行业的现状,它正在蓬勃发展。

Well, this week, we've gotten a peek or actually a big look at the state of the AI business, and it is booming.

Speaker 0

我们有相关数据。

We have the numbers.

Speaker 0

我们会来讨论这些数据。

We're gonna talk about them.

Speaker 0

我们还会带来关于Anthropic与五角大楼争端的最新进展,以及Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪对OpenAI和五角大楼的一些精彩言论。

We'll also bring you the latest in the Anthropic Pentagon spat, some incredible choice words from CEO Anthropic CEO Dario Amode about OpenAI and the Pentagon itself.

Speaker 0

当然,我们还会带来本周最重要的新闻:快餐业首席执行官们咬汉堡的场景,他们咬得多大,以及这对全球经济意味着什么。

And then, of course, we'll bring you the most critical news of the week, the state of fast food CEOs taking bites out of their burgers, how big those bites are, and what they mean for the global economy.

Speaker 0

和往常一样,本周五我们邀请到了Margins的兰詹·罗伊。

Joining us as always on Friday is Ranjan Roy of Margins.

Speaker 0

兰詹,欢迎回来。

Ranjan, welcome back.

Speaker 3

我得承认,这个周末我会大吃一顿。

I will admit I am going to have a big arch this weekend.

Speaker 3

我要做了。

I I'm gonna do it.

Speaker 3

我准备好了。

I'm ready for it.

Speaker 0

这是麦当劳CEO曾若有所思地握了很久的汉堡。

This is the c the the burger that the CEO of McDonald's, held pensively for quite some time before

Speaker 3

关键在于咬下去。

taking being the key.

Speaker 0

小小一口。

Tiny bite.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

我要狠狠咬一大口那个大拱门。

And I'm gonna take a giant bite of that big arch.

Speaker 3

我准备好了。

I'm ready for it.

Speaker 0

在连续经历了三个非常严肃的片段后,我们将在节目末尾加入一些轻松的内容,不仅讨论麦当劳首席执行官咬下的那一口汉堡,还会谈到汉堡王和温迪的首席执行官们引发的混乱。

After three very serious episodes in a row, we will add some levity for you at the end of the show and talk about not only the bite that the McDonald's CEO took of his burger, but also the Burger King and Wendy CEOs and the madness that ensued.

Speaker 0

所以节目末尾来聊聊‘汉堡门’事件。

So Burgergate at the end.

Speaker 0

但首先,让我们进入正餐。

But first, let's go to the main course here.

Speaker 0

我们有一些关于OpenAI和Anthropic的营收数据,我们反复回到这些数字,因为它们为我们提供了观察人工智能采用情况、商业现状以及未来走向的视角,而且这些数据变化如此迅速,我们必须紧跟其动态。

We have some revenue numbers for OpenAI and Anthropic, and we come back to these numbers again and again because they give us a a way to look into the state of AI adoption and the business and where things are going, and also they they just move so fast, so quickly that it's important to stay on top of them.

Speaker 0

所以,以下是相关信息。

So here, this is from the information.

Speaker 0

OpenAI的年化收入突破了250亿美元,而Anthropic正在缩小差距。

OpenAI tops 25,000,000,000 in annualized revenue as Anthropic narrows the gap.

Speaker 0

上个月底,OpenAI的年化收入已突破250亿美元。

OpenAI topped 25,000,000,000 in annualized revenue at the end of last month.

Speaker 0

这一数字相比该公司年底时214亿美元的年化收入,增长了17%。

That's a 17% increase from the 21,400,000,000.0 in annualized revenue the company was generating at the end of the year.

Speaker 0

OpenAI 仍然比其较年轻的竞争对手 Anthropic 产生更多的收入,尽管这两家竞争对手之间的差距正在缩小。

OpenAI is still generate generating more revenue than its younger rival, Anthropic, though the difference between the arch rivals has been narrowing.

Speaker 0

Anthropic 的年化收入最近突破了 190 亿美元,比去年年底增长了近三倍,比两周前增长了 36%。

Anthropic annualized revenue recently topped 19,000,000,000, up nearly three times from the end of last year and up 36% from two weeks ago.

Speaker 0

所以,这两家公司 2022 年时收入为零,如今在 2026 年的年化收入已超过 400 亿美元。

So we have basically, these two companies who were doing zero in 2022 are now doing 40,000,000,000 plus in annualized revenue in 2026.

Speaker 0

你如何看待这种增长的规模?

What do you make of the magnitude of this increase?

Speaker 0

当你在图表上观察时,它确实看起来像一支曲棍球杆。

When you look at it on the chart, it actually does resemble a hockey stick.

Speaker 3

是的,它确实像一支曲棍球杆,但今天我要明确说:让我们都开始谈论年化收入,也就是 ARR,年化经常性收入。

Oh, it does resemble a hockey stick, but I I'm going to come out today and say, let's all start talking about annualized revenue, ARR annualized recurring revenue.

Speaker 3

如果你看看这张图表,为了确认一下,你刚才说从去年年底(2025 年)到现在已经翻了三倍,对吧?

Like, if you look at this graph and just to confirm, I mean, you had said it's tripled from the end of last year being 2025.

Speaker 3

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 3

我们说的是短短两个月的增长,收入翻了三倍,这太疯狂了。

Like, we're talking two months of growth, it's tripled, which is insane.

Speaker 3

我完全同意。

Like, I completely agree.

Speaker 3

这种规模和体量,简直就是典型的冰球杆曲线。

The magnitude, the scale, it's pure hockey stick.

Speaker 3

但把这些数字直接乘以12来外推,我觉得并不合理,因为这些举措的影响力实在太大了,你不能简单地把它当作一条自然的增长曲线来看——要知道,即使在2025年全年,增长已经相当显著,但也没达到过去两个月这种程度。

But extrapolating these numbers always times 12, I don't think makes sense because the the sheer, like, gravity of these moves means that, like, trying to extrapolate it as just a natural curve when in you know, I mean, even in all of 2025, things grew pretty dramatically, but not at the scale they have in the last two months.

Speaker 3

我们现在正处在一场巨大的淘金热中,尤其是在令牌消耗和API使用方面,Anthropic尤为突出。

We are right in the middle of just a massive gold rush in terms of this kind of token consumption, this this API consumption, especially for Anthropic.

Speaker 3

所以我认为,试图用外推法来预测未来,根本不是正确的思路。

So I think trying to extrapolate this out is not the right way to approach this.

Speaker 0

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 0

让我从另一个角度说说。

Let me take the other side.

Speaker 3

请说。

Please.

Speaker 0

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 0

所以,如果我没理解错的话,这是Anthropic的收入增长轨迹。

So this is the Anthropic revenue trajectory, if I have it right.

Speaker 0

2023年收入一亿美元,2024年达到十亿美元,2025年ARR达到90亿美元,现在已飙升至190亿美元。

A 100,000,000 in 2023, a billion in 2024, 9,000,000,000 of ARR at the 2025, now they're up to 19.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

所以,即使只看一个月,他们一个月的收入也超过了去年同期整整一年的收入。

So even if it is just a month, you have them doing more revenue in a month than they did a year and a half ago, In the entire year.

Speaker 3

不对。

No.

Speaker 3

不对。

No.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

我同意。

I agree.

Speaker 3

我要说,过去两个月简直疯狂,但这种感觉越来越像新冠疫情时期的过度 extrapolation,我们之前讨论过的每一个企业都被认为会全面转向远程办公,Zoom 的价值将不可估量。

I will say the last two months have been absolutely wild, but it's more it's starting to feel like COVID era extrapolation of every single business that we talked about that the whole world is gonna move towards, like, remote work only and Zoom is gonna be worth god knows how much money.

Speaker 3

就像,我觉得在用这种方式看待这些数据时,每个人都随意地抛出年度化数字。

Like, I I feel it those kind of, like, trying to actually look at these numbers in that kind of way, everyone just so casually throws out annualized numbers.

Speaker 3

再说一遍,九不是他们正在赚 190 亿美元。

Again, it's nine it's not they're making $19,000,000,000.

Speaker 3

如果你考虑一下——我不知道他们是怎么计算的,是用一月和二月的数据乘以六,还是用二月的数据乘以十二?

If you take potentially I don't know how they're calculating it, whether it's January and February times six, whether it's February times 12.

Speaker 3

就像,

Like,

Speaker 0

是二月的一周乘以——还是

whether it's a week in February times Whether it's a

Speaker 3

一天乘以三百六十五。

day times three sixty five.

Speaker 3

是的,就是这样。

Like, yeah.

Speaker 3

这就是我想说的,毫无疑问,这两家公司,尤其是Anthropic,正在迅猛发展。

This is what I mean that that, again, there is no absolutely no doubt in my mind that the both of these companies, especially Anthropic, is absolutely taking off.

Speaker 3

我们在Cursor身上已经看到过这种情况。

It's more we've seen this in Cursor.

Speaker 3

这周又有一些关于他们数据的有趣消息。

There was, like, some interesting news this week again around their numbers.

Speaker 3

但过去一年半左右,每个初创公司都在做这种推算。

But, like, every startup over the last year and a half or so has been making these extrapolations.

Speaker 3

而且,你要知道,要真正做到这种规模、速度和增长率是非常非常困难的,而他们在过去十二个月里确实做得非常出色,不仅仅是增长,而是以如此迅猛的速度增长。

And, like, you it's very, very difficult to and they have done an amazing job over the last twelve months, let's say, in terms of actually kinda growing at that kind of that scale and that speed and that rate of growth rather than just the growth alone.

Speaker 3

但我们现在是否假设,这种增速在未来十个月还会继续?

But but are we assuming do you think it's gonna continue at that rate for the next ten months?

Speaker 0

这引出了一个非常有趣的问题,因为今天我原本计划提出的第二件事,现在正好说到这儿了,就是这些预测看起来如何。

So this brings up a really interesting question because the second thing I was planning to bring up today, and I guess we're here now, is what the projections look like.

Speaker 0

如果你从我们刚才讨论的那条指数增长曲线出发,它最终会走向哪里?

And if you go from that, like, exponential graph that we're talking about, where does it lead?

Speaker 0

我们看到的围绕这些公司的大量金融活动——比如英伟达计划向OpenAI投资300亿美元,或向Anthropic投资100亿美元——都源于一种信念:不仅这些数字是真实的,而且它们还将持续加速,不仅是快速增长,更是指数级增长。我认为,当这些公司接近公开市场、这项技术全面起飞时,区分‘快速’和‘指数级’将变得至关重要。

And a lot of the financial activity we've seen around these companies, the fact that NVIDIA is gonna invest 30,000,000,000, in a company like OpenAI or 10,000,000,000 in a company like Anthropic comes from a belief that not only are these numbers real but they're going to continue to accelerate not just fast but exponential and I think this distinction between fast and exponential is going to be really important as these companies near the public market as this technology takes off.

Speaker 0

我们将弄清楚这究竟只是一项快速增长的技术,还是一项呈指数级增长的技术。上周公布的一些数据确实很有趣,涉及OpenAI在收入方面的预期走向。

We're gonna find out whether this is just a fast growing technology or an exponential growing technology, and the information did have some interesting, numbers last week about where OpenAI expects to go from the revenue side.

Speaker 0

值得注意的是,2025年的预测收入为130亿美元。

So notably in 2025, this was the projection was 13,000,000,000.

Speaker 0

我认为他们最终的实际收入略高于这个数字。

I think they ended up going, a little bit higher than that.

Speaker 0

我认为他们在2025年的收入接近200亿美元。

I think they were close to 20,000,000,000 in 2025.

Speaker 0

他们预计今年的收入将达到300亿美元,明年达到620亿美元,2028年达到1130亿美元,2029年达到1840亿美元,而接下来这个数字更惊人:2030年将达到2840亿美元。

They expect to be 30,000,000,000 in revenue this year, 62,000,000,000 in revenue next year, 113,000,000,000 in 2028, 184,000,000,000 in 2029, and buckle your seat belt for this one, 284,000,000,000 in 2030.

Speaker 0

我看到这些数字后,不得不提一下,因为说实话,我会是第一个承认过去三年收入增长极其迅猛、确实呈指数级增长的人,但从我们现在的水平到2030年的2840亿美元,天哪,如果他们真能实现,这段话肯定会流传开来,但在我看来这简直不可能,数字看起来像是假的。

And I I saw these numbers and I had to bring them up because, look, I I would be the first one to say the revenue has accelerated like crazy and certainly in an exponential way over the past three years, but to go from where we are now to 284,000,000,000 in 2030 and, by goodness, I'm sure this clip will come out if they actually end up pulling it off, It sounds impossible to me, and the numbers seem fake.

Speaker 3

我同意。

I I agree.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,除此之外,我想不到其他解释了。

I mean, I'm gonna have to there's there's no other way to look at it.

Speaker 3

这正是我们在2025年初反复讨论的问题。值得肯定的是,Anthropic彻底转向了以API驱动的企业业务,尤其是编码领域的全面投入。

It's it's the way we talked a lot about this at the beginning of twenty twenty five, And to Anthropic's credit, they made this incredible I don't know if we're gonna call it a pivot, but they went all in on coding, API driven enterprise business, API driven business overall.

Speaker 3

他们本质上是在培育消费市场,这是一次巨大的冒险,但回报也非常可观。

They essentially were seeding the consumer market, and it was a big risk, and it paid off in a big way.

Speaker 3

但他们必须持续这样做。

But they're gonna have to continue doing this.

Speaker 3

这种增长速度实际上假设他们会吞噬数字经济中相当庞大的其他部分。

Like, kind of growth rates essentially do assume that they're gonna swallow up just massive other parts of the overall digital economy.

Speaker 3

而如今,当然,SaaS股票价格——虽然最近六天可能没有体现,但过去两个月确实以某种方式反映了这种信念。

And now, I mean, certainly, like, SaaS stock prices, maybe not in the last six days, but over the last two months have reflected that belief in some kind of way.

Speaker 3

但我不确定。

But I don't know.

Speaker 3

我觉得,这背后确实有一个清晰的逻辑,但如果你要给这件事发生的概率打分,我觉得不会超过50%。

I think, like, it really it it it's there's a very clear story for it, but the probability if you're assigning a probability of it happening, I don't think it's, like, above 50%.

Speaker 3

我觉得这个概率是合理的,但在我看来,这并不是预期中的结果。

I think it's a reasonable probability, but I don't think it's, like, the it would not be the expected outcome in my mind.

Speaker 3

我刚刚让Claude根据我们提供的数据,对这个趋势做了外推。

And I did just ask Claude to take our graph from the information and extrapolate it out.

Speaker 3

Claude告诉我,到今年年底,Claude的收入将达到280亿到320亿美元之间。

And Claude tells me that Claude will be at between 28 and 32,000,000,000 by the end of this year.

Speaker 3

所以。

So

Speaker 0

但跟2027年相比,这简直是小巫见大巫。

Well, that's that's small potatoes compared to 2027.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,也许这件事会发生,但这个预测假设的是,情况甚至超出了最乐观的预期,而一旦真的发生,你觉得会怎样?

I mean, to go from and maybe it will happen, but to go it this just assumes that the absolute, it's even beyond the best case scenario and as that happens, guess what?

Speaker 0

成本会上升,而支出你大概可以控制,对吧?

Costs are gonna go up and the spending you can con I guess you can control, right?

Speaker 0

支出要更可预测,因为你终究得花掉它。

The spending is much more predictable because you're gonna spend it.

Speaker 0

关键在于你能否将这种可预测性转化为收入,尤其是这些公司必须提前两年就做好准备。

The question is whether you can turn that predictably into revenue and notably these companies will have to do that about two years in advance.

Speaker 0

所以,OpenAI,我们现在是2026年,他们已经在为2028年达到1130亿美元的门槛做产能布局了,这意味着亏损会非常惊人。

So it so OpenAI, right, we're in 2026 now, they're already building for the capacity assuming they're gonna meet that $113,000,000,000 threshold in 2028, which means the losses are gonna be wild.

Speaker 0

这里的信息来自那篇报道。

Here, this is from that information story.

Speaker 0

随着收入增长,不断上升的计算成本将拖累OpenAI的利润。

As revenues climb, rising compute costs will weigh on OpenAI's bottom line.

Speaker 0

去年,该公司亏损了80亿美元现金。

Last year, the company burned $8,000,000,000 in cash.

Speaker 0

然而,公司预计今年将亏损250亿美元,明年亏损570亿美元,比此前预测的总额多出约300亿美元。

However, the company expects to burn 25,000,000,000 this year and 57,000,000,000 next year, about 30,000,000,000 more than the total previously predicted.

Speaker 0

天啊。

Holy shit.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,我觉得是这样。

I mean, I think so okay.

Speaker 3

我们以OpenAI为例吧,实际上我认为Anthropic现在的业务模式更清晰,方向也更明确。

Let's take OpenAI because I would actually say Anthropic has a much cleaner business right now and a cleaner line in that direction.

Speaker 3

如果我们深入分析OpenAI,它算是一家面向消费者的公司吗?

If we dig into OpenAI, I mean, is it a consumer business?

Speaker 3

它能实现其企业业务吗?

Are they gonna realize their enterprise business?

Speaker 3

那个设备是什么?你见过Airbnb的首席数字官是谁吗?

Is that device that did you see the who's what's the Airbnb chief digital officer?

Speaker 0

哦,Gebia。

Oh, Gebia.

Speaker 0

Gebia。

Gebia.

Speaker 0

盖比亚。

Gebia.

Speaker 0

盖比亚。

Gebia.

Speaker 0

像一个骑自行车的人。

Like, a cyclist.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

戴着某种设备。

Wearing some device.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

不是那种放在他旁边,比如在咖啡店里的那种情况。

Not where like, had it next to him on the at a at a coffee shop.

Speaker 3

比如,所有这些都可能会成真。

Like, maybe all this comes true.

Speaker 3

但事实上,我想强调的一点是,既然我们如此接近代理商业这个领域,他们本周报道的信息显示,OpenAI 已经打算缩减其在购物业务上的努力或资源投入。

But, actually, one thing I wanted to highlight about, like, being very close to the whole world of agentic commerce, they the information had reporting this week that OpenAI is already looking to scale back its efforts or its resource allocation around its shopping efforts.

Speaker 3

与此同时,Meta 开始进入代理商业领域,他们甚至宣布可能会推出一款带有某种商业功能的网页浏览器。

Meanwhile, Meta is starting to get into the agentic commerce game, and they've, like, announced they might even have a web browser that they're gonna add some level of kind of commerce.

Speaker 3

我们之前已经讨论过,他们就像是黑马。

And we've talked about them as the dark horse and all of this.

Speaker 3

所以要记住的是,这还没把 Google 纳入任何考量之中。

So so the thing to remember is and that's not even taking into account Google in any of this.

Speaker 3

所以,这些数字几乎假设了几乎没有竞争。

So, like, these numbers assume almost, like, lack of competition.

Speaker 3

记住,从十月到现在,OpenAI 的收入增长依然非常惊人,但我们已经看到 Gemini 在其消费者业务方面取得了巨大进展。

Remember, OpenAI, the the revenue growth for them, I gotta say it from, like, October to current date is still pretty spectacular, but we've seen where Gemini is making massive inroads into the consumer side of their business.

Speaker 3

所以,订阅费是20美元还是200美元才够呢?

Like, so is subscriptions 20 or $200 gonna be enough?

Speaker 3

这同样假设了几乎没有竞争,才能持续如此增长。

Like, that also assumes almost no competition to actually be able to continue growing like that.

Speaker 0

非常有趣。

Very interesting.

Speaker 0

就在亚马逊向该公司投入500亿美元的同时,OpenAI却缩减了其代理式购物的雄心。

OpenAI scales back its agentic shopping ambitions just as Amazon puts $50,000,000,000 into the company.

Speaker 0

我猜这两者没什么关联。

I bet the two aren't related.

Speaker 3

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 3

因为我其实觉得它们在玩完全不同的游戏。

Well, because I actually feel they're playing very different games.

Speaker 3

因为,这确实很有趣。

Because, like, that is interesting.

Speaker 3

我喜欢这一点,有点喜欢。

That is I I I kinda like that.

Speaker 3

我不打算说这是阴谋论,但我认为其实

I'm not gonna say conspiracy theory, but I think like

Speaker 0

说吧。

say it.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

嗯,它是。

I well, it's.

Speaker 3

但对我来说,它们是完全不同的活动。

But to me, they're very, very different activities.

Speaker 3

因为ChatGPT正在与基于网页的搜索竞争,比如直接去公司官网。

Like, because ChatGPT is competing against, like, web based shot, like, regular go to a company's website.

Speaker 3

他们试图取代的是像我访问亚马逊这样的行为。

That's what they're trying to kind of, like, take over versus I go to Amazon.

Speaker 3

我不仅仅把它当作一个网站来用。

I'm not just using it for the website.

Speaker 3

我用的是它整个物流和两天、一天送达的配送体系。

I'm using it for the entire logistics powerhouse in my two day and one day shipping.

Speaker 3

所以我觉得它们还是有点不同,而且完全可以非常和谐地共存。

So I still feel they're they're a bit different and could they could coexist in a very neat way.

Speaker 3

但你也知道吗?昨天亚马逊宕机了整整八个小时。

But, also, did you know Amazon was down for, like, eight hours yesterday?

Speaker 0

我不知道这件事。

I did not know that.

Speaker 0

但我昨天还是成功在亚马逊上买到了一本书。

I was able to successfully buy a book on Amazon yesterday.

Speaker 0

很好。

So Good.

Speaker 0

不错。

Good.

Speaker 0

我错过了。

I missed it.

Speaker 3

我承认,当时我在上班,坐着的时候一直在留意旁边的人。

I I recognized I was, like, sitting, I'll admit, at work, and I was checking out the person next to me.

Speaker 3

我有个很酷的便携显示器,正在查看它。

I had this cool portable monitor, and I was looking it up.

Speaker 3

但它就是无法跳转,加载不了商品页面。

And it just wouldn't click through, and it couldn't load product pages.

Speaker 3

让我觉得有趣的是,这竟然没成为重大新闻。

And it it the thing that was fascinating to me is, like, it wasn't actually a major headline.

Speaker 3

世界上最大的购物网站,也是互联网基础设施中最重要的部分之一,昨天在全球许多地方宕机了数小时。

The largest shopping site in the world, one of the largest pieces of Internet infrastructure was down for hours yesterday for a lot of the world.

Speaker 3

周围有一些相关的随机文章,但关键是,这一切都如此脆弱

And there's some random articles around it, but but, yeah, just in terms of how frail all of this stuff is

Speaker 0

现在。

right now.

Speaker 0

科技界现在有很多事情在发生,拉詹。

There's there's a lot going on in the tech world, Ranjan.

Speaker 0

我不知道你有没有注意到,但最近有一些重大新闻。

I don't know if you've noticed, but there's some big news stories happening.

Speaker 0

但关于亚马逊这件事,我想再停一下,深入谈谈,然后再继续其他话题。

But but one last thing about this Amazon thing, because I think it's worth stopping on for a moment and then continuing on.

Speaker 0

我提起这件事的原因是,它引出了一个问题:地球上每一个网站都会成为聊天机器人的输入源,还是会继续保持为独立的目的地?

I I think it the reason why I brought it up is it goes to this question of, does every website on earth become an input, to a chatbot or does it become does it remain a destination?

Speaker 0

它们会反抗吗?

Does it fight back?

Speaker 0

值得注意的是,亚马逊的业务确实是物流和履约,但在零售方面,他们利润的主要来源在哪里?

And notably, yes, Amazon's business is logistics and all this fulfillment stuff, but where are they making most of their profit on the retail side?

Speaker 0

或者应该说,他们在零售业务上的全部利润?

Or shall I say all their profit on the retail side?

Speaker 0

是广告。

It's advertising.

Speaker 0

即使你能很好地实现一键发货,那也是你业务中利润最低的部分。

And that goes away if you even if you're able to do this well with one click fulfillment, that's the least profitable part of your business.

Speaker 0

利润来自媒体。

The profit is in the media.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

明白了。

Alright.

Speaker 3

我同意这一点,如果你无法完全抓住终端消费者的注意力,这实际上可能对亚马逊构成重大威胁。

I'll I'll give you that That, like and then if you don't have, like, full attention capture of the end consumer, that actually could be a pretty large threat to Amazon.

Speaker 3

我同意

I'll I'll give

Speaker 0

你要这么说的话,如果你是亚马逊,既然做不了广告,那为什么还要做零售呢?

you far to say, if you're Amazon, why even do retail at all if you can't do ads?

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

嗯,为了用零售的现金流来补贴AWS,继续投资Alexa Plus、AWS以及其他项目。

Well, to sell so to to subsidize your AWS with cash flow and keep investing in Alexa Plus and AWS and whatever else.

Speaker 0

零售业务的利润率实在太低了,根本不可能补贴其他业务,恰恰相反。

Well, the retail business is not the retail business is so low margin that it can't if anything, it's the other way around.

Speaker 0

是AWS在补贴零售业务。

The AWS will subsidize it.

Speaker 0

如果

If

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

你不能说‘是的’。

You can't do Yeah.

Speaker 3

广告,是的。

Ads Yeah.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

为什么要运营亚马逊?

Why run Amazon?

Speaker 0

所以对我来说,我认为公司和OpenAI之间有一些战略上的考量。

So I that's to me, I think, some of the strategic thinking there between, the company and OpenAI.

Speaker 0

但我可能错了。

But I could be wrong.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,显然,OpenAI将会成为有史以来增长最快的公司。

I mean, obviously, OpenAI is gonna be the fastest growing company ever.

Speaker 0

所以,如果你是一家有投资能力的公司,你大概确实想持有它的股份,而亚马逊当然有这笔资金。

So you probably do want a stake of that if you're a company with the means to invest and Amazon certainly had the money to do it.

Speaker 0

好吧。

Alright.

Speaker 0

我们正处在一个非常有趣的时刻,即将看到这些巨大的亏损和预测,现实将与预期交汇,而且可能比我们想象的来得更早。

We're in this very interesting moment that we're gonna see these these sort of big losses, big projections, the rubber's gonna meet the road, and it might happen sooner than we think.

Speaker 0

这是本周发生的事。

This is from this week.

Speaker 0

詹森·黄表示,他和英伟达对OpenAI投资的300亿美元可能是最后一笔。

Jensen Huang said the $30,000,000,000 that he, and NVIDIA invested in OpenAI might be the last.

Speaker 0

为什么?

Why?

Speaker 0

是因为他不信任萨姆·阿尔特曼,还是因为他不相信这项技术?

Is it because he doesn't trust Sam Altman or is it because, you know, he doesn't believe in the technology?

Speaker 0

不是。

No.

Speaker 0

他说,原因在于他们即将上市。

He says the reason for that is because they're going public.

Speaker 0

他确实这么说了,这是来自CNBC的报道,他在周三的摩根士丹利科技、媒体和电信大会上表示,英伟达对OpenAI竞争对手Anthropic的100亿美元投资也可能是最后一笔。

He said it though, this is from CNBC, he said during the Morgan Stanley technology media and telecom conference on Wednesday, he also mentioned that NVIDIA's $10,000,000,000 investment in OpenAI rival Anthropic would likely be the last.

Speaker 0

当这些公司面对公开市场时,会发生什么?

What's gonna happen when these companies face the public markets?

Speaker 0

他们发布S-1文件,也就是招股说明书,声称要登陆公开市场,并向华尔街的银行家们展示这些极其乐观的预测,同时也会说,是的。

They release their S-one documents, you know, their prospectus, saying they wanna hit the public markets, and they bring Wall Street bankers these, these these very optimistic projections while also saying, yeah.

Speaker 0

我们今年可能会亏损300亿美元。

We we're gonna lose 30,000,000,000 this year.

Speaker 3

所以我可以明确地说,我真的完全不知道这会是什么样子,因为我们从未见过类似的情况。

So I very definitively can say I have absolutely no idea what this is gonna look like because we've never seen anything like this.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,说得清楚一点,这些公司的规模和数字,至少从公司年龄这个指标来看,它们还算正常地考虑上市。

I mean, being completely clear, like, the scale and the numbers of where these companies are I mean, certainly, I guess, age of company is the only kind of metric by which they're, like, somewhat normal into going thinking about an IPO.

Speaker 3

但我认为有两个层面。

But I think on two levels.

Speaker 3

第一,商业模式实际上还没有得到任何有意义的验证,每一次查询的经济模型,没人真正理解。

One, like, the business models have not actually been proven out in any kind of meaningful the economics of, like, every single query, no one really understands.

Speaker 3

我们真的能理解它吗?

Are we going to actually understand it?

Speaker 3

我们应该能。

We should.

Speaker 3

但对我来说,这一切更有趣的地方在于,他们为什么还需要银行家和律师?

But I think for me, the more fascinating part of all this is, like, why do they need bankers and lawyers?

Speaker 3

我看到一些人在讨论这个。

Like, I saw some people talking about it.

Speaker 3

就像ChatGPT或OpenAI聘请了两家律师事务所。

It's like ChatGPT or OpenAI has hired two law firms.

Speaker 3

我以为他们正在淘汰律师事务所。

I thought they're getting rid of law firms.

Speaker 3

我以为GPT 5.4意味着财务建模根本毫无意义。

I thought, like, GPT 5.4 is supposed to mean financial modeling doesn't make any sense.

Speaker 3

用Claude来写你的S-1文件。

Write your s one with with Claude.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,真正的强势做法是你在没有投行的情况下上市。

Like like, do you the the power move is you go public with no bankers.

Speaker 3

这才是我想看到的。

That's what I wanna see.

Speaker 0

拉詹,今天你会让我们的大量观众非常开心。

Ranjan, you're gonna make a large portion of our audience very happy today.

Speaker 0

评论区里有人一直在说,‘怀疑的拉詹’。

People in the comments have been saying, miss skeptical Ranjan.

Speaker 0

当然,他回来了,你说得对,有意思的是,他们居然要聘请律师事务所——顺便说一句,Anthropic 公司,他们并不是在说软件会消失,我们待会儿会谈到 Anthropic 的一些工作内容,但他们却在招聘多名 Salesforce 管理员,而人们总是在他们每发一篇博客时就说‘软件已经死了’,所以我想我们都可以深吸一口气,承认这件事——顺便说,这事儿进展得快吗?是呈指数级发展吗?

Certainly, he has returned you're right I mean it's amazing they're gonna hire law firms Anthropic by the way which is saying that you know I mean not saying that software is going away and we'll get to actually some of the job stuff from Anthropic but they're hiring multiple Salesforce administrators for a company that people say software is dead every time they do a blog post, so I think we can we can all take a deep breath and say that this stuff and this is going to the question by the way is it moving fast, Is it moving exponential?

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

这才是问题所在。

That's the question.

Speaker 0

我某种程度上还是觉得,嘿。

I I kind of still am on the side of, hey.

Speaker 0

进展很快,但我们也别太超前了。

It's moving fast, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

我认为进展确实很快,但另一方面,我要提醒一下,我对这两家公司的商业模式持怀疑态度,而不是对技术本身。

I think moving fast but but also to the other point, like, a reminder, I'm I'm skeptical about the economics of these two companies, not of the technology.

Speaker 3

对,没错。

So, like Right.

Speaker 3

没错。

Right.

Speaker 3

这其实让我感到兴奋,因为能看到这些数字,看到一份两三百页的文件,里面列出了风险因素、利润率等等——说实话,没人真正了解这些。

And that's actually what is exciting for me because, like, to see the numbers, to actually see in a two to 300 page document s one with risk factors listed and margins and like, I mean, no one has any real idea.

Speaker 3

我们已经看到很多报道了。

We've seen lots of reporting.

Speaker 3

但是否存在这样一种情况:它们几乎不必像普通公司那样披露所有信息,因为它们其实没必要这么做,却依然能成功,同时还有足够的散户热情来维持局面?

But is there a world where they almost don't they don't divulge everything that a typically company would need to because they don't really need to and then still are able to actually make it out and there's just enough retail energy to kinda keep things going?

Speaker 3

也许吧。

Maybe.

Speaker 0

有可能。

Possibly.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,零售端的能量肯定会非常大。

I mean, there's certainly gonna be a lot of retail energy.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,现在如果你想在私募市场上购买OpenAI或Anthropic的股份,它们的价格是有溢价的。

I mean, right now, if you wanna buy, OpenAI or Anthropic shares, on the private markets, there's a premium to them.

Speaker 0

这完全可以理解,因为人们会迫切想拿到这些股票,尽管它们的估值将高达数千亿美元,这简直太疯狂了。

Understandably so, because people are gonna be dying to get ahold of these stocks even though it's gonna come they're gonna come out at trillion dollar plus valuations which is just totally insane.

Speaker 0

所以我们会看到,但另一方面,你将面临巨大的亏损,最终可能陷入WeWork那样的境地——你试图用基于社区的EBITDA指标来粉饰,结果人人都说你在胡说八道。

So we'll see, but the other, the other side of it is you're gonna have losses so big you don't wanna end up in like the WeWork category where you try to pull a community based EBITDA metric and everybody says, you're full of shit.

Speaker 3

如果你必须选一个的话,我的意思是,这几乎是个送分题。

If you were to choose I mean, this is almost an a gimme question.

Speaker 3

谁会提出2026年版的‘社区调整后EBITDA’?

Who comes up with the 2026 equivalent of community adjusted EBITDA?

Speaker 3

OpenAI 还是 Anthropic?

OpenAI or Anthropic?

Speaker 0

可能是 OpenAI。

Probably OpenAI.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,没错。

I mean, that that that yeah.

Speaker 3

那真是个简单的问题。

That that was an easy one.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,Anthropic 的那个数字将会惊人。

I mean, the s one for Anthropic is gonna be unbelievable.

Speaker 0

还有风险因素,比如我们强硬的首席执行官可能会写一些备忘录,破坏我们与某些政府开展业务的能力。

And the risk factors, it's, like, definitely gonna be our strident CEO may write memos that destroy our ability to do business with certain governments.

Speaker 3

我们当然会深入讨论这一点,但我想强调这是关键风险因素。

Which we'll definitely get into, but I would highlight that as a key risk factor here.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 0

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

最后一点,关于支出。

Last last bit on, spending.

Speaker 0

我们该谈谈苹果吗?

Should we talk about Apple?

Speaker 0

我的意思是,苹果这周发布了新的Mac,非常精致,价格也很实惠。根据X平台上一位叫Josh Kale的人所说,亚马逊、微软、Meta和谷歌正在展开一场支出军备竞赛,每个季度在数据中心上的投入超过一千亿美元,而苹果的支出却下降了19%。与此同时,Mac mini已经售罄,因为人人都在购买它们来运行OpenClaw;Mac Studio的预订排期长达六周。昨天有人用iPhone运行了Quen 3.5,最新的M5 Max刚刚发布,配备了128GB统一内存,能够从任何地方运行Lama 700亿参数模型。

I mean Apple had some new Macs this week they're really slick they're cheap, this is from somebody on, X, Josh Kale Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google are in a spending arms race plowing over 100,000,000,000 per quarter into data centers while Apple spending is down 19% meanwhile Mac minis are sold out because everyone's buying them to run OpenClaw, Mac Studios have a six week backlog someone ran Quen 3.5 on an iPhone yesterday, the m five max just shipped with a 128 gigabytes of unified memory and runs Lama 70,000,000,000 parameter model from anywhere.

Speaker 0

在AI基础设施上投入最少的公司,反而成为了AI基础设施本身。

The company spending the least on AI infrastructure infrastructure actually became the AI infrastructure.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,也许苹果在这里赢了。

I mean, maybe Apple wins here.

Speaker 0

也许我们所有的抱怨都是徒劳的。

Maybe all of our complaining is for naught.

Speaker 3

我可能得说点苹果的好话了,但可不是因为MacBook Neo,别逗了。

I might have to say something nice about Apple, and it's not gonna be the MacBook Neo because come on.

Speaker 3

这简直太棒了。

It's like, great.

Speaker 3

你发明了一款上网本,却彻底贬低了数十年的品牌积累。

You invented a netbook, and you kinda completely devalued the entire decades of brand building.

Speaker 3

不过我们先把这个放一放。

But we'll keep that for

Speaker 0

另一个,听起来你真的很有感触。

another Sounds like you really feel.

Speaker 3

但等等,等等。

But but but hold on.

Speaker 3

但我确实喜欢这个观点:花在AI基础设施上最少的公司,反而意外地成为了AI基础设施本身,这确实引出了一个问题——所有这些计算究竟在哪里运行和存储?

I do love this point that, like, the company spending the least on AI infrastructure accidentally became AI infrastructure because it does raise the question over where does all of this computing take place and live?

Speaker 3

而且这个想法真的很有趣,我记得几年前,人们还在讨论小型模型将直接在设备本地运行,这才是基础设施真正构建的方式。

And it is fascinating the idea again, this I mean, I remember a few years ago, people were talking about, like, model small models are gonna run locally on device, and that's actually gonna be how infrastructure gets built out.

Speaker 3

这完全打乱了我们过去三十分钟里讨论的所有说法。

That throws such a wrench into any of these stories that we've been talking about for the last thirty minutes.

Speaker 3

这彻底摧毁了那些说法。

Like, that completely destroys those stories.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,老实说,如果你能做到,这并不是一个不合理的技术难题。

I mean, honestly, like, the if you can do and it's not an unreasonable technical thing.

Speaker 3

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 3

对于日常消费级AI使用来说,能够更安全地在本地运行AI,尤其是当OpenAI真的涉及交易我们所有数据的丑闻时,这实际上很有意义。苹果进入这个领域,主打隐私保护,硬件出色,还能运行AI,蒂姆·库克或许还是让Siri表现糟糕,但他们仍有可能成为AI领域的冠军。

It's not like especially for, like, day to day consumer AI usage, being able to run it locally in a more secure way, especially if there's ever any kind of scandal around OpenAI is actually trading on all of our data, which I mean, you know, like Apple coming in, the privacy angle, we got great hardware, you can run AI on it, Tim Cook, Siri might still suck, and they still might become the AI champions.

Speaker 0

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 0

昨天我参加了一个由CNBC评论员斯蒂芬妮·林克在Hightower主办的活动,坐在我所在小组旁边的一个人说,他在六个月里花在苹果硬件上的钱,比他一生中花的还要多。

I was at, an event yesterday that Stephanie Link, who's a CNBC contributor and works at Hightower, she ran, and person sitting next to me on the panel I was on, had said that he'd spent more in six months on Apple hardware than he had in his life.

Speaker 0

这可能有点夸张,但这家伙确实在运行多个OpenClaw,还堆了一堆Mac mini。

Now, it's probably a bit of an exaggeration, but the guy is just running multiple Open Claws and stacking Mac minis.

Speaker 0

你知道吗,我之前开了个玩笑,但也许这真的会发生:今年六月在库比蒂诺,蒂姆·库克将在WWDC大会上登台,开场就说:‘智能代理AI一直深植于苹果的基因之中。’

And, you know, the I made a joke and then maybe this is actually what's gonna happen, is that this June in Cupertino, Tim Cook is gonna come on stage at WWDC and he's gonna start with, agentic AI has always been part of Apple's DNA.

Speaker 0

我们非常激动地推出新一代Mac mini。

We are so excited to release a new generation of Mac minis.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,如果你仔细想想的话。

I mean, but if you think about okay.

Speaker 3

疯狂的是,如果苹果不抓住这个机会,那就太荒谬了。

Like, the crazy part is if Apple does not lean into this, it's insane.

Speaker 3

说真的,现在我这么一想,是的。

Like, actually, now that I'm thinking about it, like yeah.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,而且经常听节目的朋友都知道,尽管我完全沉浸在苹果生态里,但过去几年我对苹果还是有不少尖锐的看法。

I mean and and, again, regular listeners know even though I'm completely locked into the ecosystem, I have very strong thoughts on Apple over the last few years.

Speaker 3

但如果他们错失了这个时机,实际上他们到现在为止一点都没做这方面的营销。

But, like, if they give up this moment and actually, they have not done any marketing around it.

Speaker 3

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 3

比如,根本没有任何。

Like, there's been No.

Speaker 3

没有任何主动营销。

No active marketing.

Speaker 0

完全病毒式传播。

Totally viral.

Speaker 3

他们发布了,就像这样,稍后我们会谈到麦当劳的CEO。

They released like like and we're gonna get into my man, CEO of McDonald's in just a little bit.

Speaker 3

但像这样,每当大公司遇到这种时刻,都会抓住它、放大它,而他们却什么都没做。

But, like like, every major corporation gets when you have these moments, you own it, you run with it, and they haven't done anything with it.

Speaker 3

他们几乎在回避它,就像一件发生在一旁的见不得人的小事,而实际上,这是苹果在硬件层面最酷的一件事。

Like, they're almost hiding from it, and it's like this, like, dirty little thing happening to the side and like, versus this is the coolest thing Apple is actually cool at the hardware level.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我觉得

I think

Speaker 3

现在想想,这有点令人震惊。

It's kinda shocking now that I'm thinking about it.

Speaker 0

这背后可能有两个原因。

There's probably two reasons for it.

Speaker 0

两个原因之一。

One of two reasons.

Speaker 0

一个是他们意识到OpenCLO是一个重大的隐私风险,鼓励人们使用它肯定对他们不利;我刚刚看到有人报告说,在一个OpenCLaw聚会中,没人相信他们的数据会被安全保存,基本上,使用这些东西就是在暴露自己,即使是在一台独立的机器上。

One is they realize that OpenCLO is a major privacy liability, and it would certainly not behoove them to encourage, you know, people to there were I just saw someone reporting from, like, a privacy meetup at, like sorry, an OpenCLaw meetup that nobody trusts that their data is gonna be kept safe and basically, like, you're just exposing yourself if you're using one of these things, even if it's on a separate machine.

Speaker 0

所以这可能是一个原因。

So that might be one.

Speaker 0

另一个原因可能是纯粹的无能或行动迟缓。

The other one might just be, you know, pure your incompetence or just slow moving stuff.

Speaker 3

我觉得是行动迟缓。

I think it's slow moving.

Speaker 3

我觉得吧,老实说,我不觉得是那样,我的意思是,这确实是,是的。

I think it's I honestly I don't think it's I mean, I'll it's the yeah.

Speaker 3

再说了,像这种英雄故事,他们还是会把自己当成隐私守护者。

Again, like, hero story, they're gonna remain privacy champion.

Speaker 3

OpenCL确实存在不少风险,真的去推进这种架构会很麻烦。

Open claw does have plenty of risk to actually kind of, like, going after that kind of setup.

Speaker 3

但我真的觉得,这一切来得太快、太出人意料了。

But, like, I really think it's just it came so fast and so unexpected.

Speaker 3

可能吧,你想想,从组织层面来看,你能想象如果你是Mac mini市场团队的一员吗?

Probably I mean, you think organizationally, like, could you imagine, like, if you were, like, on the Mac mini marketing team?

Speaker 3

过去几年里,谁在负责这个团队?

Like, who's on that over the last few years?

Speaker 3

我的意思是,角落里就一个人,就像,是的。

I mean, there's, a guy in the corner just, like I yeah.

Speaker 3

我有台Mac mini。

I got Mac mini.

Speaker 0

这甚至不在我的产品组合里。

It's not even in my portfolio.

Speaker 0

看看这个Mac mini,但他必须推广它。

Look at the look at the Mac mini, but he has to market it.

Speaker 0

是的。

That's Yeah.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

我喜欢它。

I like it.

Speaker 0

文化。

Culture.

Speaker 0

我真希望,比如,

I'd love for, like,

展开剩余字幕(还有 434 条)
Speaker 3

一个

a

Speaker 0

最近离开苹果的人,曾经在那里工作过,直接来谈谈。

recent Apple departee, somebody who used to work there, to just come on.

Speaker 0

我们可以对你的声音进行匿名处理,然后聊聊企业文化。

Well, we can anonymize your voice or whatever, and just talk about the culture.

Speaker 0

所以,约翰·G·安德烈亚,如果你在听的话,给我们打个电话吧。

So, John G Andrea, if you're listening, just just give us a call.

Speaker 0

我们可以聊聊这个。

We can talk about this.

Speaker 0

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 3

等等。

And hold on.

Speaker 3

我这就去向蒂姆·库克推销一下。

I'm just gonna I'm gonna pitch Tim Cook.

Speaker 3

拿出你的手机,设置好,让你的社交媒体团队来操作,然后把一台Mac mini放在你两只手上。

Pull out your phone, set it up, have your social media team do it, and just put a Mac mini in both your hands.

Speaker 3

你不必真的咬一口,但请抓住这个时刻。

You don't have to take a bite out of it, but just take this moment.

Speaker 3

把握住这个机会。

Take this.

Speaker 3

你可以在这里很好地模仿麦当劳CEO的风格。

You could riff off the McDonald's CEO so well here.

Speaker 3

这个时刻在呼唤你,蒂姆·库克,就在现在。

This moment is calling for you, Tim Cook, right now.

Speaker 3

抓住它,蒂姆。

Own it, Tim.

Speaker 3

抓住它。

Own it.

Speaker 0

你说得太对了。

You're so right.

Speaker 3

咬一口

Take a bite

Speaker 0

吧。

out of it.

Speaker 3

就抓住这个

Just take a

Speaker 0

机会咬一口

bite out

Speaker 3

吧。

of it.

Speaker 3

咬一口吧。

Take a bite out of it.

Speaker 0

苹果只需要发一张蒂姆·库克做出爪子手势的照片即可。

All Apple would need to do is tweet a picture of Tim Cook with claw hands.

Speaker 0

这难道不会成为2026年最火爆的营销时刻吗?

And wouldn't that be like the viral marketing moment of 2026?

Speaker 3

这太简单了,伙计们。

This is it's a layup, guys.

Speaker 3

这太简单了。

It's a layup.

Speaker 3

我们只是把它送给你。

Just we're giving it to you.

Speaker 3

我们就这么做了,拜托了。

We're gonna just run with it, please.

Speaker 3

你不需要修复Siri。

You don't have to fix Siri.

Speaker 3

只要为我做这件事,我就同意了。

Just do this for me, and I'm on board.

Speaker 0

顺便说一下,有时候这些公司确实会采纳我们的建议。

Sometimes these companies do take our suggestions, by the way.

Speaker 0

我觉得,这周Anthropic就添加了一个你可以复制的提示。

I think, this week, Anthropic put a prompt that you could copy to copy it.

Speaker 0

导出你的记忆。

To export your memory.

Speaker 0

正如我所说,记忆并不持久。

Like I was saying, memory's not sticky.

Speaker 0

他们构建了我们之前讨论的提示,你把它粘贴到Chatchippity中,它会输出你的记忆,然后你把记忆粘贴到Claude中,继续使用一个了解你的机器人。

They built the prompt that we were talking about and you drop it in Chatchippity, it prints out your memory, you paste the memory in Claude, and then you continue with a bot that knows you well.

Speaker 3

这全是亚历克斯·坎特罗伊德的功劳。

That was all Alex Cantroids right there.

Speaker 0

全盘领功。

Taking full credit.

Speaker 3

全部功劳。

Full credit.

Speaker 3

功劳。

Credit.

Speaker 0

影响力科技播客不容忽视。

Influencerity technology podcast will not be denied.

Speaker 0

不。

No.

Speaker 0

OpenAI 的新模型 GPT 5.4 已经上线。

New model from OpenAI GPT 5.4 is here.

Speaker 0

Birch 称这是迈向自主代理的重要一步。

Birch calls it a step toward autonomous agents.

Speaker 0

据称,OpenAI 正在推出 GPT 5.4。

OpenAI is launching GPT 5.4, they say.

Speaker 0

这是该公司推出的最新 AI 模型,据称融合了推理、编程以及涉及电子表格、文档和演示文稿的专业工作方面的进步。

The latest version of its AI model that the company says combines advancements in reasoning, coding, and professional work involving spreadsheets, documents, and presentations.

Speaker 0

这也是 OpenAI 首个具备原生计算机操作能力的模型,意味着它可以代表你操作电脑,并在不同应用程序中完成任务。

It's also OpenAI's first model with native computer use capabilities, meaning it can operate a computer on your behalf and complete tasks across different applications.

Speaker 0

OpenAI 表示,该模型能够编写代码来操作电脑,并能根据屏幕截图发出键盘和鼠标命令。

OpenAI says the model can write code to operate computers as well as issue keyboard and mouse commands in response to screenshots.

Speaker 0

对我而言,这里有两点快速的反应。

Two quick reactions here for me.

Speaker 0

我们刚刚做了关于Scale AI的报道,他们表示大部分训练已经转向了强化学习,即训练模型在特定环境中执行任务,比如填写表格,然后将这些能力固化到模型的权重中。

We just I just did the story for, with about Scale AI saying that the majority of their training has moved to reinforcement learning where they train models to act in specific environments like filling out forms, and then they bake those capabilities back into the model's weights.

Speaker 0

所以看起来,我们正开始看到这种趋势逐渐成真。

So it seems like we're starting to see this come to fruition also.

Speaker 0

很明显,ChatGPT和OpenAI将Cloud Code视为真正的竞争对手,他们正在努力追赶,或者根本追不上。

It's clear that ChatGPT or and and OpenAI see Cloud Code as real competition, and they're trying to catch up or can't catch up.

Speaker 3

我觉得是的。

I think so.

Speaker 3

我得承认,你知道吗,你有没有觉得这是一次重大发布?

I I have to admit, like, I know, did you feel this was a big launch?

Speaker 3

你在你的信息流中,有没有从心底感受到这是一次重大发布?

Did did you kinda across your feeds in your bones, did you feel this was like, oh, like a big launch?

Speaker 0

我认为,是的,这对我来说是一个重要的时刻,让我反思一下我一直想在节目中分享的事情:我们往往不能仅凭模型的初步表现就下定论。

I think, yeah, this is an important moment for me to reflect on something that I've been meaning to share on the show for a while, which is that we can't really you know, first glimpses of models sometimes don't tell the full story.

Speaker 0

我们曾猛烈批评GPT-5,说它根本达不到预期。

And we slammed GPT five and said it was something that just did not live live up to expectations.

Speaker 0

没有。

No.

Speaker 0

我有。

I did.

Speaker 0

你实际上

You you actually

Speaker 3

说是。

called did.

Speaker 0

你说这是一个重大突破,而我说这太糟糕了,我为o三感到惋惜。

And you said it was a big advance, and I said this this stinks, and I mourned o three.

Speaker 0

实际上,这是一个重大突破。

Actually, it was a big advance.

Speaker 0

所以我要暂时搁置我的判断,因为有时候看起来像是一个小波动,却可能最终变得极其重要。

And so I'm gonna hold my my assessment for for a moment because sometimes it might seem like a a small blip and turn out to be massive.

Speaker 3

让我们再回顾一下发生了什么。

Let let let's recap what happened again.

Speaker 3

如果听众还记得的话,我曾说过,工具调用和推理作为代理式流程,是GPT-5的重大突破。

If you don't if listeners might recall, I had said tool calling and reasoning for kind of like agentic processes was the big step up with GPT five.

Speaker 3

亚历克斯,你只是在为40603哀悼。

Alex, you're just mourning 40603.

Speaker 0

或者我不是一个四零派。

Or I wasn't a four o guy.

Speaker 0

我是个零三派。

I was an o three guy.

Speaker 0

我想把这一点说清楚。

I wanna make that clear.

Speaker 0

我和这个模型并没有什么关系。

I didn't have a relationship with the model.

Speaker 0

我只是喜欢让它多思考。

I just liked it to think a lot.

Speaker 0

无论如何,谢天谢地。

Just Either way Thankfully.

Speaker 0

我承认。

I'll admit it.

Speaker 0

我承认。

I'll admit it.

Speaker 0

拉詹出来了,说这是一件大事。

Ranjan came out, said this is a big deal.

Speaker 0

工具使用很重要。

Tool use is important.

Speaker 0

我说这个模型太差了。

And I said this this model sucks.

Speaker 0

结果发现并没有。

It turns out it didn't.

Speaker 3

还有让我感到有点惊讶的一点是,好吧。

I one thing also that was kinda surprising for me is, okay.

Speaker 3

你知道,原生计算机使用这个功能其实已经存在了。

You know, like native computer use interesting, already exists.

Speaker 3

他们竟然认为这会是一个大事件,这一点本身就很重要。

The fact that they even, like they basically is, like, this is gonna be a big deal.

Speaker 3

你可以看到彭博社这样的媒体是如何被推动宣传的。

And you can see the kind of PR machine at work that Bloomberg picks up.

Speaker 3

在金融服务业,这确实是个大事件。

Like, big deal in financial services.

Speaker 3

他们本质上只是做了早已在Excel或Google Sheets中通过插件实现的功能,可以直接在其中使用,但Gemini在Google Workspace环境中的表现却如此糟糕,这让我难以理解。

They basically just did what already clawed in Excel or anything like like the Excel add in in Google Sheets that you can use it directly in there, which still why Gemini is not great within the Google Workspace environment is ridiculous to me.

Speaker 3

我们已经多次讨论过这个问题。

We've talked about this a number of times.

Speaker 3

谈到ChatGPT中的技能,确实不错。

Talking about skills in ChatGPT, great.

Speaker 3

几个月来,大家一直在做这些事。

Everyone has been doing this for months now.

Speaker 3

我觉得所有这些都让我感到平淡无奇,而这对他们来说本应是一个重要的时刻。

Like like, I think all of that just kind of underwhelmed me and this was a pretty big moment for them.

Speaker 3

我觉得他们本该为这件事搞得更轰动一些,结果就这么悄无声息地过去了。

Like, they I feel they needed to be a little bit splashier around this and and it just kinda came and went, it felt.

Speaker 0

好吧,我会暂时保留我的看法,等我更深入地了解这个模型后再做评价。但我只是觉得值得注意的是,他们这次登场了,显然,基于媒体宣传和定位,他们是在针对Claude Code,而他们确实应该这么做。

Well, I will, I'll hold my reservations, my my evaluation on this one until I get deeper into the model, but, I just thought it was notable that they came in that that they clearly, given the press and the positioning, are going after Claude Code, and certainly they should be.

Speaker 0

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 0

我们先休息一下,回来聊聊Dario和Anthropic之间的纠纷——抱歉,是Dario和Amo Day与美国国防部的争端。我们还会聊一聊这个麦当劳的汉堡 Bite,我们其实本该从这个故事开始的,因为它可能是本周最令人兴奋的新闻。

Let's take a break and come back and talk about the latest between Dario and the Anthropic sorry, Dario and Amo Day and Anthropic and their dispute with the Department of War, and we'll also talk about this McDonald's burger bite that we probably should have started the show with because it might be the most exciting story of the week.

Speaker 0

好的,我们马上回来。

Alright, we'll be back right after this.

Speaker 0

开始一件新事情不仅很难,而且令人恐惧。

Starting something new isn't just hard, it's terrifying.

Speaker 0

你为这件事投入了这么多努力,却不确定它最终能否成功,要迈出这一步确实很难。

So much work goes into this thing that you're not entirely sure will work out, and it can be hard to make that leap of faith.

Speaker 0

当我刚开始做这个播客时,我并不确定会不会有人听。

When I started this podcast, I wasn't sure if anyone would listen.

Speaker 0

现在我知道这是正确的选择。

Now I know it was the right choice.

Speaker 0

当你有Shopify这样的合作伙伴支持时,也会更有帮助。

It also helps when you have a partner like Shopify on your side to help.

Speaker 0

Shopify是全球数百万企业的电商平台,占美国所有电子商务的10%。

Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all ecommerce in The US.

Speaker 0

从Allbirds和Cotopaxi这样的知名品牌,到刚刚起步的新品牌。

From household names like Allbirds and Cotopaxi to brands just getting started.

Speaker 0

凭借数百个即用型模板,Shopify帮助你打造一个与品牌风格一致的精美在线商店。

With hundreds of ready to use templates, Shopify helps you build a beautiful online store that matches your brand's style.

Speaker 0

让你的推广效果仿佛背后有个营销团队在运作。

Get the word out like you have a marketing team behind you.

Speaker 0

轻松创建电子邮件和社交媒体活动,覆盖你客户浏览的各个平台。

Easily create email and social campaigns wherever your customers are scrolling or scrolling.

Speaker 0

是时候用Shopify将那些‘如果’变成现实了。

It's time to turn those what ifs into with Shopify today.

Speaker 0

立即在 shopify.com/bigtech 注册您的每月1美元试用版。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/bigtech.

Speaker 0

前往 shopify.com/bigtech。

Go to shopify.com/bigtech.

Speaker 0

就是 shopify.com/bigtech。

That's shopify.com/bigtech.

Speaker 0

我们回到《大科技播客》周五版,今天邀请到Margins的Ranjan Roy。

And we're back here on big technology podcast Friday edition with Ranjan Roy of Margins.

Speaker 0

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

Anthropic与五角大楼的故事仍在持续发展。

So the Anthropic Pentagon story continues to develop.

Speaker 0

首先,这条消息来自彭博社。

First of all, this is from Bloomberg.

Speaker 0

五角大楼通知Anthropic,将其列为供应链风险。

The Pentagon notifies Anthropic it's deemed the firm a supply chain risk.

Speaker 0

五角大楼已正式通知Anthropic,认定该公司及其产品对美国供应链构成风险。

The Pentagon has formally notified Anthropic that it's determined the company and its products pose a risk to The US supply chain.

Speaker 0

这意味着,如果你正在与国防部合作,你就不能使用Anthropic。

And, that means that, basically if you are working with the Department of War you cannot use Anthropic.

Speaker 0

这并不意味着你完全不能使用Anthropic,也不意味着你不能在其他项目上使用,只是你不能在这些项目上使用Anthropic。

Doesn't mean you can't on those projects, it doesn't mean you can't use Anthropic at all, it just means you can't use Anthropic on those projects.

Speaker 0

现在,达里奥已作出回应,他说——这是他周四撰写的一份备忘录中的内容——我们不认为这一行动具有法律依据,我们别无选择,只能诉诸法庭挑战它。

Now, Dario has responded and he says, we believe, this is from a memo that he wrote on Thursday, we do not believe that this action is legally sound and we see no choice but to challenge it in court.

Speaker 0

所以,目前的情况是:国防部已将Anthropic列为供应链风险,而Anthropic将对此提出异议。

So, this is where it stands, the Department of War has declared Anthropic a supply chain risk, Anthropic is gonna fight it.

Speaker 0

拉詹,为了接续我们上周的对话,当时我说也许这一切只是营销,但我现在对这件事的看法完全反转了,因为这一处罚显然比一场营销活动严重得多;但随后我又想了想,也许Anthropic仍然试图以某种方式向公众塑造形象,认为这样对自己有利,结果却适得其反。

Ranjan, just to pick up our conversation from last week where I said, you know, maybe this is all marketing, I've done like a kind of a three sixty on this, because the punishment clearly made it made it more serious than a marketing campaign, but then I thought about it and it was like, well, maybe there still are some elements of Anthropic trying to position itself in a way to the public that it thought would be beneficial, but it just blew up in its face.

Speaker 0

我不确定。

I don't know.

Speaker 0

我还在整个周末思考,该如何全面理解这件事。

I'm still trying to figure out how to think about this of a full weekend.

Speaker 0

你的看法是什么?

What's your perspective?

Speaker 3

它可能是两者兼有。

It it can it can be both.

Speaker 3

我认为这可能是独裁风格的表扬备忘录,还是一条Slack消息,或者一份正式备忘录?

I think it can definitely be like, was the dictator style praise memo or was it a Slack message or an official memo?

Speaker 0

那是一条Slack消息。

It was a Slack message.

Speaker 3

Slack消息,就像那种被泄露出去的消息。

Slack message, like, being leaked, like, those kind of things.

Speaker 3

这是有意为之的吗?

Are they is it purposeful?

Speaker 3

很难说,因为事实上,我这周跟好几个人聊过。

It's it's hard to say because there's I mean, again, like, I actually talked to multiple people this week.

Speaker 3

我没想到事情已经发展到这种地步了,居然有人删掉了ChatGPT。

I didn't realize, like, how far it had gotten who were who deleted ChatGPT.

Speaker 3

我没想到这已经成了一个大事件。

I didn't realize it was a whole thing.

Speaker 3

但被删除的ChatGPT,某种程度上是为了抗议萨姆·阿尔特曼他们与国防部走得太近。

But, like, the deleted ChatGPT in kind of, like, protest of Sam Altman and them kind of, like, playing nice with the Department of War.

Speaker 3

于是,Claude的下载量迅速飙升,而且在营销上也获得了相当积极的影响。

So and then, obviously, Claude shot up the charts, the download charts, and, like like, there was still a good deal of kinda marketing positive impact for them.

Speaker 3

显然,如果这意味着你存在供应链风险,那么仍然可能彻底扰乱业务。

Obviously, if that means, like, it still risks the completely I mean, disrupting the business by if you are a supply chain risk.

Speaker 3

正如你所说,事情似乎越来越清晰了。

And, as you said, it feels like it's becoming more clear.

Speaker 3

这仅限于一些使用Claude的特定项目。

It's only around specific projects leveraging, Claude.

Speaker 3

并没有太多猜测,比如,任何与Anthropic合作的公司,是否都必须停止合作,即使他们的工作与政府毫无关系?

It's not like there's a lot of speculation, you know, like, any company that does any kind of work with Anthropic, does that mean they have to stop doing that even if it has nothing to do with the government?

Speaker 3

看起来大家的态度都在转变。

It seems like everyone's coming around.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

那不是真的。

That's not Yeah.

Speaker 3

不会有任何后果。

Gonna be any kind of ramification of this.

Speaker 3

所以我认为这仍然是营销,而且是很好的营销。

So so I still think it's marketing and good marketing.

Speaker 0

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

只是我觉得这算不上好的营销,因为Anthropic目前的处境已经糟糕到我认为,如果这是营销,那它彻底搞砸了。

It's just that well, I don't think it's good mark it didn't end up the the situation has gotten so bad for Anthropic at this point that I don't see I don't see it as like if it was marketing, it backfired.

Speaker 0

我是这么看的。

That's how I see it.

Speaker 0

尽管Claude登上了榜首

Although Claude did hit number one

Speaker 3

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 0

在应用商店上。

On the app stores.

Speaker 3

它适得其反了吗?

Did it backfire?

Speaker 0

真的吗?

Did it?

Speaker 0

我们该谈谈Dario写的那份备忘录了,我觉得这很重要。

We should get to that we should get to this, memo that Dario wrote because I think it's important.

Speaker 0

这就是你提到的那种独裁风格的表扬备忘录。

So this is, the dictator style praise memo that you referenced.

Speaker 0

首先,我就直接说结果吧。

First of all, I'll just go I'll just go with, the results.

Speaker 0

首先,我们还应该注意到,OpenAI 插手并最终拿走了 Anthropic 当时与国防部未能达成一致的合同,然后试图将其解释为一种为 Anthropic 重新打开大门的举动。

So first of all, we should also note that OpenAI came stepped in and then effectively took the contract that Anthropic was working on, that it couldn't agree with with the DOW, and then tried to and then explained it as something that like was trying to open the door back for Anthropic.

Speaker 0

以下是达里奥所说的话。

Here's what Dario said.

Speaker 0

我认为这种试图扭曲事实、制造幻觉的说辞,在公众和媒体中并没有奏效,因为大多数人认为 OpenAI 与国防部的交易可疑或不妥,而把我们视为英雄。

I think this attempted spin gaslighting is not working very well on the general public or the media, where people mostly see OpenAI's deal with the Department of War as sketchy or suspicious and see us as the heroes.

Speaker 0

我们现在在应用商店排名第二,随后又升到了第一。

We're number two on the App Store now, and then it moved to number one.

Speaker 0

这种说法对一些推特上的蠢货有效,但这无关紧要;我主要担心的是如何确保它不会影响 OpenAI 员工。

It is working on some Twitter morons, which doesn't matter, but my main worry is is how to make sure it doesn't work on OpenAI employees.

Speaker 0

显然,达里奥对这种说法引起的共鸣感到满意。

So clearly Dario was happy with the way that this was resonating.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,为什么不能也可能是两者兼而有之呢?

I mean, why can't it just be also maybe maybe it's both.

Speaker 0

也许这仅仅是一种在公众面前塑造自身形象的手段。

Maybe it was a way to position themselves in public.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

再提醒一下,他们确实发布了博客文章。

Again, remember they did release their blog posting.

Speaker 0

他们在谈判期间本不愿与国防部合作,这确实有点像营销手段,但也可能是出于这种原则立场——这也是达里奥提到的关于监控的问题。

They weren't gonna go along with the DOW amid the negotiations, which does, you know, kind of have this whiff of marketing, but maybe it's also this principled stance that like and and this is where Dario also talks about about, about surveillance.

Speaker 0

他说,反对监控。

He says, I mean, against surveillance.

Speaker 0

他说,在这份备忘录中,国防部在前AI时代拥有国内监控权限,这并不令人担忧,但在后AI时代则具有了不同的意义。

He says the DOW in this memo memo, the Department of War does have domestic surveillance authorities that are not of great concern in a pre AI world, but take on a different meaning in a post AI world.

Speaker 0

例如,国防部合法地从供应商那里购买大量美国公民的私人数据,这些供应商通过某种合法方式获取数据,通常涉及隐含的同意将数据出售给第三方,然后利用AI大规模分析,构建公民的画像,包括他们的忠诚度、行动模式、物理空间等。

For example, it's legal the Department of War to buy a bunch of private data on US citizens from vendor vendors who have obtained that data in some legal way, often involving hidden consents to sell to third parties, and then analyze it at scale with AI to build profiles of citizens, their loyalties, movement patterns, and physical space, and much more.

Speaker 0

所以也许两者都是。

So maybe it's both.

Speaker 3

我觉得你知道,这可能会有点争议,但说真的,这些大公司之间,或者政府在后AI时代,是否真的已经在进行大规模监控了?我明白,能够精准定位、定向和挖掘数据的能力确实不同了。

I think do you know the the this is gonna be a bit, I don't wanna say hot take ish, but, like, does anyone between these large companies actually already engaging in mass surveillance or the government having access to I get in a post AI world, like, the ability to pinpoint and target and mine data is definitely different.

Speaker 3

但,这真的和我们多年来一直面对的情况有什么不同吗?

But, like, is it really any different than what we've been dealing with for years now?

Speaker 3

比如,难道真的有人觉得,呃,我不知道。

Like, does anyone think again like, the I don't know.

Speaker 3

你看到这一点了吗?

Do do you see it?

Speaker 3

这是一件很黑暗的事,但我想加拿大发生过一起大规模枪击案,当时OpenAI甚至在审查他们的聊天信息。

And this is, like, a dark thing, but, like, I think there was, like, a mass shooter in Canada, was it, where OpenAI had even been reviewing their messages.

Speaker 3

一开始,意识到这些公司里确实存在某种内容审核机制,感觉还挺好的。

And it's, are sitting around, like so at first, it was kinda nice to realize there is some content moderation apparently somewhere in these organizations.

Speaker 3

但只是坐在那里阅读被标记的人的消息,说实话,我不知道。

But, like, sitting around just reading people's messages that are flagged, like, I don't know.

Speaker 3

让我觉得有趣的是,现在突然出现了对隐私的期待,这当然是好事,我也很高兴,但我内心那个愤世嫉俗的部分早就对这一点放弃希望了。

Like, is there it's interesting to me that suddenly there is this expectation of privacy, which is good and I'm happy about, but I think the cynic in me kinda gave up on that a long time ago.

Speaker 0

你提到这一点很有意思,因为我今天刚写了一篇关于大型科技公司的文章,基于一条热门推文——虽然这并不是什么新见解,但我认为作为所谓的‘服务型新闻’,有必要指出:如果你使用任何这些聊天机器人,你的对话默认会被用于模型训练,唯一能阻止它们被用于公司模型训练的方法,就是进入设置并手动取消勾选。

Well, it's very interesting you bring that up because I just wrote this story on big technology today, talking about how and it's based off of this viral tweet, so not exactly a new insight, but I thought it was important, you know, quote unquote service journalism to put out there that, if you use any of these chatbots, your conversations are opted in for use in training, and the only way to not have them used in these companies model training is to go into settings and opt out of it.

Speaker 0

也就是说,如果你没有选择退出,你输入的任何内容都可能被用于训练。

Meaning that, like, if you haven't opted out, anything you put in there can be used for training.

Speaker 0

这意味着你的财务文件、你与四〇的深厚情感联系、你的医疗记录。

That means your financial documents, your deep emotional connections with four o, your medical records.

Speaker 0

我认为这一点很重要。

I think that this is important.

Speaker 0

如果你在这些聊天机器人中输入任何敏感信息,最好关闭这个设置。

If you're putting anything sensitive in these bots, you should probably toggle that, setting off.

Speaker 3

而且,我的意思是,你真的能完全信任,只要关闭这个开关,你的数据就会被这些公司安全妥善地管理吗?这些公司的规模正如我们之前讨论的那样,在以前所未有的速度增长。

And, I mean, just being like and then have 100% full trust that by hitting that toggle off, that your data is safely and securely managed by these companies that are growing as we've been talking about at just unprecedented scale.

Speaker 3

对。

Like Right.

Speaker 3

这既是事实,而且这些公司一直以来,尤其是OpenAI,在获取数据方面从来都不是特别谨慎或保守。

It's both And that that have been and that have also, like mean, I it's certainly more on the OpenAI side, like, never exactly been, you know, the like, cautious or conservative around how they acquire data.

Speaker 3

所以我认为,一方面假设关闭开关就能完美保护你,另一方面也必须承认,你不得不手动关闭这个开关。

So I think, like so it's both assuming that hitting toggle off protects you perfectly, but also agreed having to hit toggle off.

Speaker 3

有一篇斯坦福的研究论文,他们实际上能够直接展示特定行为是如何通过用户协议进入训练数据的。

There's that Stanford research paper where they were able to actually kind of, like, directly show how specific, like, actions went into training in terms of the terms and conditions.

Speaker 3

所以,是的,就是这样。

So, like, that's it's yeah.

Speaker 3

我同意。

I agree.

Speaker 3

它已经在那里了。

It's it's already there.

Speaker 3

就像

Like

Speaker 0

也许在模型训练中使用这些数据,与国防部将其用于更深层次的监控之间存在某种区别,好吧。

Maybe there's this distinction between that being there for model training and the Department of War using this for, like, deeper levels of surveillance that you Okay.

Speaker 0

也许达里奥知道这些模型中输入了什么。

Maybe Dario knows what's being inputted into these models.

Speaker 0

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 0

或者模型的能力因为能够理解海量数据而被用于更深层次的监控。

Or or the model's capabilities being able to be used for deeper levels of surveillance because of all the data that they can make sense of.

Speaker 0

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 0

我,而且

I I and

Speaker 3

或者我本来想说,现在好了。

Or I I was gonna say now that okay.

Speaker 3

也许我越想越觉得,这种前AI时代和后AI时代的区别。

Maybe I will, the more I think about it, this idea of, like, pre AI versus post AI world.

Speaker 3

个人面临的风险显著增加了。

The risks to individuals are significantly greater.

Speaker 3

因为过去,要处理海量数据并精准定位那些批评政府领导层或其他相关人士的人,几乎是不可能的;但现在,你可以更容易地做到这一点。

Because, like, in the past, like, to be able to now go through petabytes of data and be able to pinpoint individuals that are speaking ill of, like, individuals in the government leadership or whatever, like, now you can actually do that a lot more easily than you would have been able to before.

Speaker 3

但再说一遍,我只是觉得这种事可能已经发生了。

But, again, is I I just feel like that's probably happening already.

Speaker 3

而且我认为这甚至不是阴谋论。

And and I don't think that's even conspiracy theory.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,我不知道。

Like, I don't know.

Speaker 3

有很多大公司就是围绕着构建这种基础设施而建立的。

That's it's there's large companies that are built around building that infrastructure.

Speaker 3

所以。

So

Speaker 0

我只是想站上桌子说一句:你把敏感信息输入到这些聊天机器人里,为自己着想吧。

I just wanna stand on the table and say, you're putting sensitive information into these bots, do yourself a favor.

Speaker 0

即使这并不完全可靠,也请去关闭那个开关,别让它们用这些数据进行训练。

And even though it's not foolproof, go hit that toggle off, and don't let them train on that data.

Speaker 0

这仅仅是我的公益提醒。

And That's just my my PSA.

Speaker 3

同意。

Agreed.

Speaker 3

大家都把开关关掉。

Toggle off everybody.

Speaker 3

好的,关掉开关。

Toggle Alright.

Speaker 0

在我们转向麦当劳之前,先来点专制式的赞美。

So we get to the dictator style praise before we move to McDonald's.

Speaker 0

所以,达里奥提到萨姆,他说幕后萨姆一直在与战争部合作,签订合同,以便一旦我们被列为供应链风险,就立即取代我们;但他必须以一种不显得他放弃红线、出卖我们的做法来完成这件事,因为我们没有屈服。

So, Dario says, about Sam, he says behind the scenes Sam has been working with the Department of War to sign a contract with them to replace us as the instant the instant we are designated as a supply chain risk, but but he has to do this in a way that doesn't make it seem like he gave up on the red lines and he sold out when we wouldn't.

Speaker 0

战争部和特朗普政府不喜欢我们的真正原因是我们没有向特朗普捐款,而OpenAI和格雷格却捐了很多。

The real reasons the Department of War and Trump admin don't like us is that we haven't donated to Trump while OpenAI and Greg have donated a lot.

Speaker 0

我们这里说的格雷格,指的是格雷格·布罗克曼。

We're talking about Greg talking about Greg Brockman there.

Speaker 0

我们没有对特朗普进行专制式的赞美,而萨姆却这么做了。

We haven't given dictator style praise to Trump while Sam has.

Speaker 0

我们支持人工智能监管,这与他们的议程相悖。

We have supported AI regulation, which is against their agenda.

Speaker 0

我们如实披露了多项人工智能政策问题,比如工作岗位流失,并且真正坚守了我们的底线,没有与他们合谋制造所谓的安全表演来取悦员工——我向你保证,这正是Palantir、我们的政治顾问等部门所有人默认我们认为要解决的问题。

We told the truth about a number of AI policy issues like job displacement, and we've actually held our red lines with integrity rather than colluding with them to produce safety theater for the benefit of employees, which I absolutely swear to you is what literally everyone at the department for Palantir, our political consultants, etc assumed was the problem we were trying to solve.

Speaker 0

我认为你再也不会看到Dario写出这样的段落了,因为他根本没料到这段话会泄露,现在它已经泄露了,Anthropic的文化将因此改变;这段话公开后,他不得不为此道歉,Anthropic今后也会变得更加封闭。

I don't think you'll see a paragraph like that from Dario ever again because he did not expect that to leak, it leaked, it's gonna be a change in Anthropic's culture, think Anthropic will become him and Anthropic will become much more closed off now that that's that paragraph has gone out and, and he's had to apologize to it for it.

Speaker 0

这种事在CEO身上你真的很少见到。

It's really not something you see from CEOs.

Speaker 0

有时候CEO们或许会这么想,但他们绝对不可能写下来。

Sometimes CEOs might think things like this, they certainly don't write them.

Speaker 0

这让我想到Dario,他是独一无二的,他是一位非常独特的CEO,而这样的内容泄露,确实是一个重要时刻。

This kind of leads me to Dario is he's one of one like he's a very unique CEO out there and, and this is this is quite a moment for that to leak.

Speaker 0

显然,尽管他们仍在与五角大楼接触,但在那段话公开后,他们立即被列为供应链风险。

Obviously then, you know, even though they're still talking with the Pentagon they got the supply chain risk right after that came out.

Speaker 3

所以,那是一条泄露的Slack消息吗?

Was that so it it was a leaked Slack message?

Speaker 0

Do I

Speaker 3

我说得对吗?

have that right?

Speaker 3

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,尽管人们一直在谈论大规模监控,以及这些公司不保护你的数据或以意想不到的方式利用你的数据,但不得不说的是,他打在电脑里的内容竟然真的泄露了出去,这真是有点讽刺。

I mean, again, for all this talk about mass surveillance and kind of like the these companies not protecting your data or leveraging your data in unexpected ways, it is kind of ironic, I have to say, that in what he is typing into his computer does kind of make its way out into the It's funny.

Speaker 3

世界。

The world.

Speaker 3

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

但我的意思是,这其实也让我感到惊讶,比如关于这一点。

But, I mean, which also is surprising to me, like, in terms of yeah.

Speaker 3

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 3

就是我不清楚那部分。

Just what that what I don't know.

Speaker 3

你觉得这说明了什么?是谁在 Anthropic 内部泄露了这些信息?

What do you think that says that someone leaked that within Anthropic?

Speaker 3

比如,你

Like, do

Speaker 0

哦,我注意到 Anthropic 确实有一种相当信任的文化。

Oh, I noted this because Anthropic does have this, like, pretty trusting culture.

Speaker 3

记得吗?这正是我的意思。

Remember That's what I mean.

Speaker 0

大家都很喜欢达里奥。

People love Dario.

Speaker 0

所有创始人都还在。

All the founders are still there.

Speaker 0

只有少数几个人离开了去 Meta。

No one only a couple people have left to meta.

Speaker 0

所以我认为这可能是Anthropic文化的转折点,也可能不是。

So I do think this is probably a turning point for Anthropic culture or maybe not.

Speaker 0

奇怪的是,Dario以后会更加谨慎地对待他在Slack消息中的言辞。

Weird Dario is gonna be much more careful careful about what he writes in those Slack message Slack messages.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,作为记者,我很高兴这件事被泄露了。

I mean, I'm glad as a reporter, I'm glad it leaked.

Speaker 0

你知道,读到这些公司内部发生的事情挺好的,但我觉得这对Anthropic的文化来说很不幸,因为这些东西已经公之于众了。

You know, it's nice to read what's going on inside these companies, but it's it's unfortunate for, I think, anthropic culture that that's out there.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

我认为这其实是个大事,因为从外部来看,他们确实给人一种非常信任的文化氛围,而你作为内部人士,经常采访Dario,能感受到他们曾经是个让人感到愉快的地方,与其他竞争对手相比是不一样的。

I think it it actually is a big deal in terms of, like, they really it felt it feels from the outside, and you've been a lot more on the inside and interviewing Dario, like, that culturally they were a more trusting kind of like it it was the the happy place to be versus other competitors of theirs.

Speaker 3

所以,是的。

So, like yeah.

Speaker 3

我认为这是一个非常重要的时刻,

I think it's I think it's gonna be it's a pretty important moment,

Speaker 0

我得说。

I have to say.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

不。

No.

Speaker 0

我同意。

I would agree.

Speaker 0

好吧。

And, okay.

Speaker 0

在五角大楼这边,我猜他们最终还是会与五角大楼达成协议。

On the Pentagon side, my guess is they still end up coming to an agreement with the Pentagon.

Speaker 0

我就持这种看法。

That's where I'm I'm at.

Speaker 0

我上周在那里,这周也在,他们给克劳德设定了六个月的期限要求移除,但他们仍在谈判。

I was there last week, I'm there this week, they have the six month, deadline for for, Claude to be, removed, but they're still talking.

Speaker 0

我明白了。

I see

Speaker 3

所以我想说,自从上周以来,有些事情发生了变化,我不知道你有没有读过《纽约时报》的报道,关于似乎有135名学生在一次专门针对他们的导弹袭击中丧生。

So I'm gonna I'm gonna say, I think the part that has changed since last week, and I don't know if you read, like, there was the New York Times reporting on, like, I think it was, like, a 135 schoolchildren killed in in a missile that, like, had specifically targeted.

Speaker 3

然后,已经有不少人开始质疑,你怎么会犯这种错误,尤其是在克劳德正在清除马杜罗、清除卡门——我甚至不确定该怎么正确发音。

And then, like, already, there's a good deal of kind of, you know, like, how do you make that kind of mistake, especially now as there's as Claude is taking out Maduro and, like, taking out Camene and I'm not even sure how to pronounce it exactly.

Speaker 3

就像这场战争如果持续下去——我不是说拖着,而是说升级,我觉得将会带来更多后果,比如你作为一个人工智能引擎,可能会导致人员死亡。

Like, it's like, it as this war kinda drags on or I mean, not drag like, heats up, I feel there will be more ramifications around, like, you are the AI engine that's going to be killing people.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,确实如此。

I mean, it is.

Speaker 3

所以,这不仅仅是说,好吧。

Like so so there is it's not just gonna be a, okay.

Speaker 3

我们现在先装作没事的样子。

We'll make nice for now.

Speaker 3

这只是更容易的选择。

It's just the easier way out.

Speaker 3

这背后肯定会有代价。

Like, there's gonna be a cost to that.

Speaker 0

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

那所学校显然是误击目标。

That school was obviously, you know, a mistarget.

Speaker 0

我们仍然不能100%确定是不是美国干的,尽管看起来确实像是他们做的。

And we still don't know a 100% whether it was The US, although it certainly seems like it was.

Speaker 0

那所学校靠近一个伊朗革命卫队基地,这个目标很可能是由技术手段建议的。

It was a school that was in proximity to an IRGC base, and that target was suggested probably by technology.

Speaker 0

考虑到他们技术如此先进,你可能会这么想。

You would imagine given how tech enabled they are.

Speaker 0

是Palantir吗?

Was it Palantir?

Speaker 0

是克劳德吗?

Was it Claude?

Speaker 0

是别的东西吗?

Was it something else?

Speaker 3

帕兰提尔使用克劳德,就像那样

Palantir using Claude, like that that's where

Speaker 0

更可能是克劳德在帕兰提尔的数据基础上运行。

It would more likely be Claude using well, Claude on top of Palantir data.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

但无论如何,我希望我们能对这件事展开调查。

But either way, I do hope we get an investigation into that.

Speaker 0

这显然是一个巨大的、巨大的悲剧,也是对人工智能公司来说最糟糕的可能情况——我不知道,如果我们能从中吸取教训,那会很好,但最糟糕的情况是,国防部或军方对人工智能过于信任,于是说:好吧。

It's obviously, it is a massive, massive tragedy, and one that, you know, the the worst possible scenario for the AI companies would be, and I don't know, for I mean, if we learn from it, that would be good, but the worst possible scenario here would be that the the Department of War or the the the military became so trusting of the AI that they said, okay.

Speaker 0

开火吧。

Take the shot.

Speaker 0

就像,我们昨晚在聊这个,

Like, were talking about last night,

Speaker 3

顺便说一下。

by the way.

Speaker 3

我得承认,我曾经站在那个立场上,某个时刻确实是这样。

As I will admit, I took that side that at a certain point Yeah.

Speaker 3

我让人工智能开了火。

I let the the AI take the shot.

Speaker 3

但没错。

But yeah.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,我觉得基本上,这整个话题都极其黑暗和悲惨,但这是现实。

I mean, I think basically and this is all, like, so dark and tragic to have to talk about, but, like, it's real.

Speaker 3

而且,我的意思是,正是在这里,当你是那个代表、那个核心时,我觉得这使得对这些公司来说现在更加尖锐,因为每个人都使用他们的产品。

And, I mean, that's where, like, there is going to be if you are the the face and the the the thing that I think makes this so much more acute for these companies right now is, like, everyone uses their product.

Speaker 3

他们能感受到这个产品。

They feel the product.

Speaker 3

所以你可以迅速在心里推断出它可能出错的方式。

So you can make that very quick mental extrapolation into here's how it could go wrong.

Speaker 3

上周滑雪时,当我询问推荐路线时,它虚构了一条小径的名字——虽然听起来很蠢,但你确实能看到这种情况。

It is hallucinated that last week while skiing, it made up a name of a trail when I was asking for recommend I mean, as stupid as this sounds, like, you see that.

Speaker 3

所以,当你读到这个故事,再了解到他们的技术正被用于做决策时,这对你来说就不再是荒诞的理论了。

So, like, when you read this story and then you read that their technology is being used into like, to make decisions, it's not this crazy theoretical thing for people.

Speaker 3

我认为这将会持续下去,并在未来几周和几个月内变得更严重。

And I think that's actually gonna, like, continue and get bigger over the coming weeks and months.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

天哪。

Oh, man.

Speaker 0

我本来这周还想讲另外七个故事。

I had, like, seven other stories I wanted to cover this week.

Speaker 0

不过关于这一点,我还想再说一件事,然后我们转到麦当劳。

One one more thing though on this, and then we'll move to McDonald's.

Speaker 0

所以,克劳德,我们有一些数据,关于克劳德在最近几周的表现,尤其是在与五角大楼发生争议之后。

So, Claude, we have some numbers about, how Claude has done in in recent recent weeks, especially after this dust up with the Pentagon.

Speaker 0

Anthropic公司表示,自今年年初以来,每日新增用户数量翻了四倍。

Anthropic said daily sign ups from Bloomberg, Anthropic said daily sign ups have quadrupled since the start of the year.

Speaker 0

周四,Anthropic公司表示,如今每天有超过一百万人注册。

On Thursday, Anthropic said more than 1,000,000 people are now signing up every day.

Speaker 0

第三方数据公司Apptopia的估算显示,周二的下载量较2023年2月增长了220%。

Third party estimates from data firm Apptopia and found clawed downloads were up 220% on Tuesday compared with February 2023.

Speaker 0

与此同时,在OpenAI与五角大楼达成协议后,一些用户迅速卸载了ChatGPT。

Meanwhile, some users raced to delete ChatGPT after OpenAI struck its own deal with the Pentagon.

Speaker 0

周六,ChatGPT的卸载量较前一日飙升了近300%。

ChatGPT uninstalls jumped nearly 300% on Saturday from the day prior.

Speaker 0

尽管如此,克劳德的用户群体仍只占ChatGPT九亿周活跃用户的很小一部分。

Still, Claude's audience remains a small fraction of the size of ChatGPT's 900,000,000 weekly active users.

Speaker 0

截至二月,根据Apptopia的数据,Claude的每日移动聊天机器人用户总数不足4%,而ChatGPT则达到了40%到42%。

As of February, Claude had less than 4% total daily mobile chatbot users according to Apptopia, while ChatGPT had 40% 42%.

Speaker 3

实际上,我认为Claude现在如此大力投入消费端是个错误。

I actually I think it's a mistake that Claude is leaning so hard into the consumer side of it right now.

Speaker 3

我觉得他们在应用下载和用户使用量方面其实已经做得不错了。

Like, I feel that they actually were in app downloads, consumer usage.

Speaker 3

我觉得他们现在有一个非常棒的故事,那就是硬核用户正在Claude上构建大型项目。

I feel they have this, like, really nice story right now that, like, hardcore people build big things on Claude.

Speaker 3

比如OpenCLaw和Claude代码,还有其他一切东西。

Like, the OpenCLaw and Claude code and, like, just everything.

Speaker 3

他们一直处在这样一个非常有吸引力的位置上,但我也不确定。

Like, they have been in, like, this really attractive place that I don't know.

Speaker 3

现在却要重新回到类似Gemini那种残酷的消费端竞争中,拼谁的应用下载量更大、用户更多。

To to move right back into the kinda Gemini world of, like, just brutal battle and competition in terms of consumers downloading your app and using it.

Speaker 3

这根本没必要,而且用户可能最多只愿意付20美元。

It's just not and paying maybe $20 max.

Speaker 3

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 3

我觉得他们现在反而为此庆祝并大肆宣传,这可能是个错误。

I feel that might be a mistake that they're actually kinda celebrating and making a big deal about this.

Speaker 0

也许吧。

Maybe so.

Speaker 0

我们应该聊聊那些 hardcore 用户如何构建大型项目,因为是的。

And we should talk about hardcore people building big things because Yes.

Speaker 0

一位 hardcore 的首席执行官,麦当劳的肯皮辛斯基,打造了一个大项目——大拱门,然后他试图把它吃掉。

One hardcore CEO, Kempisinski from McDonald's, built a big thing, the big arch, and then he tried to eat it.

Speaker 0

这是《纽约时报》的报道。

It's from the New York Times.

Speaker 0

当麦当劳首席执行官克里斯·肯皮辛斯基上个月发布自己吃午餐的视频时,引起关注的并不是他推广的汉堡,而是他吃东西的方式——可以说毫无食欲。

When the McDonald's chief executive Chris Kempisinski, posted a video of himself eating lunch last month, it was not the burger he was promoting that drew attention, it was how he was eating it, was shall we say a lack of gusto.

Speaker 0

对于肯皮辛斯基先生来说,没有大口咬下后夸张地舔嘴唇或揉肚子的表演。

For mister Kim Kim, Kempisinski, there was no huge bite followed by a performative licking of the lips or rubbing of the tummy.

Speaker 0

我简直不敢相信这居然登上了《纽约时报》。

I can't believe this is in the New York Times.

Speaker 0

不。

No.

Speaker 0

他小心翼翼地咬了一口汉堡,几乎带着一种原始的迟疑,这根本不是‘我迫不及待想 devour 这美味的快餐’,而更像是‘我受合同约束必须完成这个特定动作’,而且我对此并不特别开心。

He bit into the burger tentatively, almost primally, and it gave, I cannot it gave not I can't wait to devour this delicious fast food item, but rather I am contractually obligated to perform a particularly act a particular action here, and I am not especially delighted about it.

Speaker 0

之后,他把汉堡举起来给观众看,露出了一颗缺失的乳头,完全违背了刚才所有人看到的情景,他却宣称:‘这是属于大拱门的一大口。’

Afterward, he held the burger up for the viewers, revealed a missing nipple and, defying what everyone had just seen, he declared that is a big bite for the big arch.

Speaker 0

所以这是一段他上传到 Instagram 的视频,你看到他说‘我太兴奋了,要吃这个大拱门’,但他只是拿着它,盯着看,然后轻轻咬了一小口。这个人实际上正在被网友群嘲。

So this is a video that he put I think on Instagram, you see him say I'm so excited to eat this big arch and he just kind of holds it and looks at it and then takes a tiny little nipple off of it, and this guy is actually being being roasted.

Speaker 0

而且我认为,拉詹,你看到了这段视频,我知道你对这件事在当今世界意味着什么有深刻的见解,所以请在这里分享一下。

And and I think, Ranjan, you saw it and and, I know you have deep thoughts about what it means for our world today, So please do share them here.

Speaker 3

我对这件事对当今世界的意义有非常深刻的看法。

I have very deep thoughts about what this means for our world today.

Speaker 3

你知道吗?

And do you know what?

Speaker 3

这是我过去一周里在网络文化方面最开心的一刻。

This was the happiest I've been in the past week in terms of, like, online culture.

Speaker 3

这让我感觉又回到了2011年。

This made me feel like it was 2011 again.

Speaker 3

就像那种荒谬、可笑、简单的网络喧嚣。

Like, this kind of absurd, ridiculous, simple kind of online brouhaha.

Speaker 3

而且我也很喜欢看到这件事是如何不断升级的。

And also what I loved, obviously, how this escalated.

Speaker 3

事实上,最早走红的《纽约客》文章之一就是关于波基斯炸鸡三明治引发的那些网络推特口水战。

And, actually, one of the first margins pieces that ever went viral was about the Popeyes chicken sandwich kinda get, like, the the online Twitter beefs and battles from those days.

Speaker 3

看到这种事再次在快餐界上演,我真的觉得太棒了。

And, like, it's just great for me to see this this happening again in the fast food world.

Speaker 3

我喜欢这一点,首先,他的背景纯粹是波士顿咨询公司的顾问,哈佛MBA。

And, like, what I love about this is, one, I mean, his background is just, like, Boston Consulting Group consultant, Harvard MBA.

Speaker 3

Like, He's

Speaker 0

太瘦了。

too skinny.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

他 apparently 跑马拉松或者超马,我的意思是,他简直太离谱了。

He he apparently runs in marathons or ultra I mean, he's just like the, like Disgusting.

Speaker 3

他简直就是为担任一家数十亿美元公司的CEO而生的。

He was made in a lab to be CEO of, like, a multi multi billion dollar corporation.

Speaker 3

这人天生就适合这个角色。

This guy was made for it.

Speaker 3

这事儿是怎么开始的?

How did it get set up?

Speaker 3

一开始有反弹吗?

Was there initial blowback?

Speaker 3

我的意思是,会不会有个初级的社交媒体运营人员想出了这个点子?我总是忍不住想,是不是这样?

Like, was there, like, some junior like, I always can't stop thinking about, is there something, like, junior social media manager who came up with the idea?

Speaker 3

那他们是什么时候意识到这其实是个成功的主意的?

And then at what point did they realize this was a win?

Speaker 3

我敢打赌,肯定有个时刻,他被叫去坐下来谈,当时他肯定气疯了。

Like and, like, there there was a moment, I guarantee you, where they he was sat down, and he's probably just livid.

Speaker 3

你们这是在拿我开玩笑。

Like, you guys are making a mockery of me.

Speaker 3

然后得有人跟他解释:先生,但在当今世界,您真的可以赢下这场。

And then someone has to explain to him, actually, sir, in today's world, you can win this.

Speaker 3

您真的可以赢。

Like, you can win.

Speaker 3

您完全可以掌控这个局面。

You can own this.

Speaker 3

我们接下来会推出第二个视频,您会聊聊牛肉的风味,像品酒一样谈论这汉堡。

We're gonna come out with a second video where you're gonna talk about, like, beef notes and talk about the burger like it's a wine tasting.

Speaker 3

你将面对来自汉堡王、温迪和A&W这些快餐品牌的同行,我甚至都忘了A&W还存在,但他们也推出了自己的产品。

You're gonna have your peers from Burger King and Wendy's and even A and W fast food, which I'd forgotten about exist but does, and they came out with one as well.

Speaker 3

你将成为全城热议的焦点。

Like, you are gonna be the talk of the town.

Speaker 3

这将大幅带动销量。

This is gonna increase sales dramatically.

Speaker 3

我个人完全不喜欢麦当劳的汉堡,在快餐领域里。

I don't like McDonald's burgers personally at all in the fast food realm.

Speaker 3

但我确实很喜欢很多其他快餐。

And I'm I there's a lot of fast food I do enjoy.

Speaker 3

我想吃一个巨无霸。

I want a big arch.

Speaker 3

这个周末我就要去买一个巨无霸。

I'm gonna go this weekend and get a big arch.

Speaker 3

我敢肯定销量一定出现了大幅增长。

I'm sure sales have to have been seeing a major uptick.

Speaker 3

这可以说是2026年迄今最棒的故事之一。

Like like, this is one of the best stories of 2026 so far.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

大拱汉堡含有1020卡路里,几乎相当于一个完整的巨无霸套餐,后者还包括汽水和薯条。

The Big Arch is 1,020 calories, which is nearly the amount of a complete Big Mac meal, which comes with the soda and fries.

Speaker 0

这可不是给胆小的人准备的。

This is not for the faint of heart.

Speaker 0

你在视频里看到他拿着它,我觉得CEO这辈子都没见过这么吓人的东西,评论区也精彩极了。

And you see him holding it in this video, and it's like, I don't think the CEO has seen anything that scared him more, and the comments are amazing.

Speaker 0

这是来自《纽约邮报》的报道。

This is from the New York Post.

Speaker 0

这人的气质一看就是沙拉控。

Man's aura screams kale salad.

Speaker 0

这是我见过最不自然的东西了。

That's the most unnatural thing I've ever seen.

Speaker 0

他为什么看起来害怕去买、害怕咬一口?

Why does he look scared to buy to bite it?

Speaker 0

当你把这种食物称为产品时,让我感到害怕,他说这是我们的最新食品产品,最新的产品。

It scares me when you call food product, which is he called it, this is our latest food product, latest product.

Speaker 0

最受欢迎的评论是:他肯定不吃麦当劳。

And then the most liked comment was, he definitely doesn't eat McDonald's.

Speaker 3

但你觉得呢?你看了汉堡王和温迪的视频了吗?

But do do you think, like, so did you watch the Burger King one and the Wendy's Yes.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 0

Do

Speaker 3

快餐公司的首席执行官真的需要吃自己的产品吗?

they eat do actually, does do fast food CEOs need to eat their product?

Speaker 3

是或不是?

Yes or no?

Speaker 3

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 3

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 3

我同意。

I agree.

Speaker 3

这一点我们不会意见不合。

We're not gonna disagree on this one.

Speaker 3

我同意。

I agree.

Speaker 0

而且,我的意思是,我支持健身。

It's also I I mean, I I am of pro fitness.

Speaker 0

我非常投入其中,尽管程度有所不同。

I'm very engaged in it, although to varying degrees.

Speaker 0

我不认为你能在那么瘦的情况下担任麦当劳的首席执行官。

I don't think you can be that skinny and be the McDonald's CEO.

Speaker 0

这是虚假广告。

It's false advertising.

Speaker 0

这让我很烦。

It annoys me.

Speaker 0

他确实如此。

He certainly does.

Speaker 0

他不需要

He doesn't need

Speaker 3

我不清楚。

I that don't know.

Speaker 3

也许他在跑马拉松。

Maybe he's running marathon.

Speaker 3

我确实记得我曾经为纽约马拉松训练和跑步。

I actually remember when I, like, ran and trained for New York City Marathon.

Speaker 3

我最喜欢的部分是可以想吃啥就吃啥,而且还能经常吃快餐。

My favorite part of it was being able to eat whatever the hell I wanted and actually getting fast food a lot more.

Speaker 3

所以也许这家伙正在不停地跑马拉松。

So maybe this guy's cranking out marathons.

Speaker 3

也许他每天只摄入20卡路里,那他肯定得多次这样做。

Maybe he's 20 calories is like, he's gotta be doing that multiple times.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

他每天得多次这样做。

He's gotta do that multiple times a day.

Speaker 3

如果你要在巨无霸、温迪的汉堡,或者那个什么大拱门之间选择,你到底在咬掉哪一口呢?

Are you if you are to choose between the whopper Wendy's, whatever that was, and the big arch, what are you what are you, taking that nibble out of?

Speaker 0

都不选。

Neither.

Speaker 0

但我得说,我现在知道什么是大拱门了,我得承认你说得对。

But I will say that I now know what the big arch is, and I I gotta hand it to you.

Speaker 0

我觉得你是对的。

I think you're right.

Speaker 0

我喜欢你这么有道理。

I love how how you're right.

Speaker 0

他一定有过那种顿悟,比如,他们知道我不想吃它,天哪。

He must have had that realization where, like, they knew I didn't wanna eat it to, oh my goodness.

Speaker 0

我创建了这家公司。

I am I have made this company.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

他并没有那种顿悟。

He didn't have that realization.

Speaker 3

这就是我如此热爱的原因。

This is what I'm so I love.

Speaker 3

曾经开过一些会议。

There were meetings.

Speaker 3

有人围坐在一起。

There were people sitting around.

Speaker 3

有过Zoom电话和制作好的幻灯片。

There were Zoom calls and slides made.

Speaker 3

还有一位可怜的社交媒体经理,眼看就要被开除,却不得不在短短几天内制作一张幻灯片,展示曝光量与销售额增长之间的关联。

And there was like like where some poor social media manager who's like on the verge of getting fired has to put together a slide showing impression count correlated to sales growth and like, they this all happened in the last few days.

Speaker 3

我毫不怀疑,这也是这个故事中最让我喜欢的部分。

There's no doubt in my mind and that is my favorite part of this story.

Speaker 3

我得说。

I would have to

Speaker 0

麦当劳本周下跌了2.83%。

say McDonald's is down 2.83% on the week.

Speaker 0

所以我认为你和我,这并不是投资建议,但你和我已经发现了一个买入机会。

So I think you and I, this is not investment advice, but you and I have just identified a buying opportunity.

Speaker 0

因为收益将会非常惊人。

Because earnings are gonna be crazy.

Speaker 3

逢低买入。

Buy the dip.

Speaker 3

买克里斯的那个,逢低买入。

Buy the one Chris's, buy that dip.

Speaker 0

然后小赚一笔。

And take a little nipple.

Speaker 0

别贪心。

Not a big bite.

Speaker 3

别贪心,也不是投资建议,别贪心。

Not a big or not investment advice, not a big bite.

Speaker 3

现在就趁机小赚一点。

Just take a little nipple of that dip right now.

Speaker 0

小口一口。

Little nipple.

Speaker 0

好的,拉詹。

Alright, Ranjan.

Speaker 0

安全到家。

Get home safe.

Speaker 0

非常感谢你来参加,每次有你都在一起都太棒了。

Thank you so much for coming on, and great always great at having you as always.

Speaker 3

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 3

下周见。

See you next week.

Speaker 0

好了,各位。

Alright, everybody.

Speaker 0

谢谢收听和观看。

Thank you for listening and watching.

Speaker 0

我们周三会邀请安德森·霍罗威茨的奥利维亚·摩尔做客节目。

We'll have Olivia Moore from Andreessen Horowitz on the show on Wednesday.

Speaker 0

非常期待,下次再见于《大科技播客》。

Looking forward to that, and we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.

关于 Bayt 播客

Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕,帮助你打破语言障碍,轻松听懂全球优质播客。

继续浏览更多播客