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有人能与大型AI聊天机器人竞争吗？
Does anyone stand a chance competing with the big AI chatbots?
我们马上请安德里森·霍罗维茨的AI合伙人穆尔来聊聊这个话题。
Let's talk about it with Andreessen Horowitz AI partner, Moore, right after this.
财政负责、金融天才、货币魔术师。
Fiscally responsible, financial geniuses, monetary magicians.
这些是人们在谈到那些将车险转投Progressive并节省数百美元的司机时说的话。
These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds.
因为Progressive为一次性付清保费、拥有房产等提供折扣。
Because Progressive offers discounts for paying in full, owning a home, and more.
此外，当您需要帮助时，可以信赖他们出色的客户服务，让您的每一分钱都花得更值。
Plus, you can count on their great customer service to help when you need it, so your dollar goes a long way.
访问progressive.com，看看您是否能节省车险费用。
Visit progressive.com to see if you could save on car insurance.
Progressive意外保险公司及其附属公司，潜在节省金额因情况而异，并非在所有州或情况下都适用。
Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates, potential savings will vary, not available in all states or situations.
欢迎收听《大科技》播客，本节目致力于对科技世界及其更广泛领域进行理性而深入的探讨。
Welcome to Big Technology Podcast, a show for cool headed and nuanced conversation of the tech world and beyond.
今天为大家准备了一场精彩的节目。
We have a great show for you today.
我们将探讨，在人工智能聊天机器人持续发展和能力增强的背景下，初创企业以及其他公司是否还有空间在经济中与之竞争。
We're gonna talk about whether there is room for startups and maybe other companies in the economy to compete with the AI chatbots as they continue to grow and get more capable.
我们还将邀请一位完美的嘉宾来讨论这个问题。
And we're gonna do it with the perfect guest.
奥利维亚·摩尔来到了现场。
Olivia Moore is here.
她是风投公司安德森·霍洛维茨的人工智能合伙人。
She is an AI partner at the VC firm Andreessen Horowitz.
奥利维亚，欢迎来到我们的节目。
Olivia, welcome to the show.
谢谢你们邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
感谢你来到这里。
Thanks for being here.
我们先从这一点开始吧，因为这很及时。
Let's just begin with this because it's topical.
是的。
Yeah.
你在安德森·霍洛维茨基金投资AI应用，是的。
You are investing in AI applications Yep.
在安德森·霍洛维茨基金，通常这些应用需要大量用户使用才能盈利。
At Andreessen Horowitz, and typically they need a lot of people to use them to pay off.
对。
Yes.
但目前美国社会对AI的情绪非常负面。
But the mood right now in The United States is very negative towards AI.
实际上，出人意料地负面。
Actually surprisingly negative.
是的。
Yes.
这是本周新发布的NBC新闻民调。
This is from a new NBC News poll out this week.
57%的选民认为AI的风险大于收益，如果再看总体上对AI的正面与负面情绪。
57% of voters thinks the risks of AI outweigh the benefits and then if you look at the total positive versus total negative sentiment of AI in general.
它的评分低到负面情绪比正面情绪低20个百分点。
It ranks so low it is a negative 20 in terms of the negatives are 20 percentage points lower or 20 points lower than the positives.
在这个民调中，它只比民主党以及伊朗更不受欢迎。
They're only popular more popular than the Democratic Party and Iran in this poll.
科尔伯特、马可·卢比奥、J.
Colbert, Marco Rubio, J.
D.
D.
万斯、庇护城市、特朗普、共和党，甚至移民与海关执法局都比AI更受欢迎。
Vance, Sanctuary Cities, Trump Republican Party, even ICE all outrank AI.
你认为为什么在美国，人工智能被如此鄙视和负面看待？这有什么影响？
Why do you think AI is viewed with such disdain and negativity in The United States and what are the implications of that?
是的，这是个很好的问题。
Yeah, know it's a great question.
也许首先谈谈为什么。
Maybe first of all the why.
我认为，美国媒体近年来充斥着许多非常吸引眼球的说法，比如人工智能消耗大量水资源，这让人们对采用这项技术感到非常担忧。
I would say there's been a lot in the media in The US more broadly these kind of very catchy statements about things like AI uses so much water that have kind of made people really concerned about leaning in on the technology.
我认为，美国对创意领域等事物持更积极的态度，而这些正是人们尤其担心人工智能会取代的工作。
I think also The US is more indexed in a positive way towards things like the creative fields, and those are jobs that I think people feel especially sensitive about AI use.
我看到的一些数据表明，这与你的说法非常吻合，相比之下，在中国等国家，人们对人工智能的信任度要低得多，如果你看一些调查的话。
So the numbers I've seen I think track closely with what you're saying versus something like a China where like, you know, half as trusting in AI if you look at some of these surveys.
我认为这种情况会改变，而且已经在改变了。
I think it's going to change and it's already changing.
今天早上我刚和一位非科技行业的人聊过，他们也说着同样的话：人工智能是邪恶的，会监视我们，还消耗大量水资源，但紧接着他们又说：ChatGPT确实帮了我很多，它的回答非常好。
I was just talking to someone this morning who was not in the tech industry, and they were saying the same lines like, AI is evil, it's gonna watch us, like it's using all the water, and then they were like, ChatGPT really helps me and it has like great answers.
所以我认为这在一定程度上是时机问题，我们需要这些产品真正渗透到主流消费者中，让他们体会到其价值。
And so I think part of it is a timing thing of we just need these products to kind of saturate the mainstream consumer and they can realize the value.
我的意思是，ChatGPT已经有九亿用户了，但这些数字依然如此负面。
I mean, there's 900,000,000 users of ChatGPT and even still those numbers are so negative.
我不禁怀疑，这是否与我们从实验室领导者那里听到的一些言论有关。
And I do wonder if it is some of the statements that we're hearing from the lab leaders.
每天都有人发表新的言论，无论是Anthropic的Dario，还是微软的穆斯塔法·苏莱曼，都说白领工作将被彻底取代。无论你是白领、蓝领，还是正在找工作的人，都会意识到，这种技术不仅能取代白领工作，而且随着机器人技术的进步，整个经济都将感受到冲击。
Mean every day there's another statement from somebody else whether it's Dario from Anthropic or Mustafa Suleiman at Microsoft about how white collar work is going to get wiped out and everybody whether you're in a white collar job, blue collar job or trying to get one sees that this stuff is capable not only of taking white collar jobs but with robotics increasingly it's going to be felt across the economy.
所以这可能与此有关。
So maybe that has something to do with it
我认为确实如此。
as I think it definitely does.
是的。
Yeah.
这很有趣。
It's interesting.
我自己就是一个AI重度用户，过去六个月里，我明显看到AI能帮助我甚至替我完成的任务比例大幅上升。
I'm an AI power user myself and I've even seen over the past six months like a massive acceleration and like the percent of tasks that I do that AI can help me with or even do for me.
我猜测这里可能发生的情况，以及我们在数据中已经看到的一点趋势是：使用AI的公司增长速度会快得多，因此他们需要雇佣更多的人来应对不断增长的需求。
What I would guess might happen here and what we're seeing play out a little bit in the data is that companies that are using AI grow so much faster that they end up needing to hire more humans to keep up with all the demand.
我想去年有一项沃顿商学院的研究，调查了800位企业领导者，其中绝大多数人都表示：我们正在大量使用AI，而且我们需要更多的人手。
I think there was a Wharton study last year from like 800 enterprise leaders and the vast majority were like, we are heavily using AI and we're gonna need more humans.
但我确实认为，人类每天要做的工作内容组合将会发生变化，就像以往每一次重大技术变革那样。
But I do think like the mix of what humans are going to be doing on a day to day basis is is going to change like it has with every other big tech shift.
这正是有趣的地方。
Well that's the funny thing.
我的意思是，你提到了那项研究。
I mean you bring up that study.
还有其他一些研究。
There have been other studies.
我认为可能是富达投资——不对，是Citadel发布过一项数据，说人们都在谈论软件工程将被这项技术彻底取代，但与此同时，Indeed上的相关职位数量却在上升。
I think Fisher Investments might have oh no, Citadel that put out the fact that like people are talking about how software engineering is going to be wiped out by this stuff and meanwhile the jobs on Indeed are going up.
是的，是的。
Yeah, yeah.
当你开始使用它时，你会意识到它能为我做这么多事。
And when you start to use it you realize wow, can do so much more for me.
但为了支持这项工作，我现在实际上在为服务A、B和C付费。
But now to enable this work, I'm actually paying for service A, B and C.
是的。
Yeah.
你并不是在囤积资金，也许你还在做出贡献。
And you're not just hoarding the money and maybe you're contributing.
我现在得雇人来构建和运营这家公司，而我只是上周末通过向Claude发提示就建成了它。
I have to hire someone now to build, to run this company that I just built by prompting Claude over the weekend.
所以让我觉得有趣的是，实验室的领导者们可能与实际情况有些脱节。
So it's interesting to me that the lab leaders may be disconnected in some from what's actually happening on the ground.
是的，我同意。
Yeah, I agree.
我认为他们完全可以做得更好，尤其是在营销方面。
I think they could do a better job of marketing for sure.
他们不是经济学家。
They're not economists.
是的，他们是研究人员，非常擅长研究，但并不是经济学家或消费者营销专家。
Yeah, they're researchers, they're amazing at research, They're not, you know, economists or consumer marketing experts.
我觉得Anthropic发布过一份报告。
I did think Anthropic put out a report.
我想是在上周末发布的，关于人工智能对劳动力经济的影响。
I think it was over the weekend about kind of the labor economy impact in AI.
他们并没有看到失业率大幅下降。
They have not seen a big decrease in unemployment.
事实上，他们通过一张图表想表达的是，受影响最大的岗位实际上是工程师、研究人员和金融从业者。
And in fact, what they were kind of arguing through one graph was like, the most impacted jobs are actually going to be engineers, like researchers and finance people.
这就引出了一个问题：如果我们认为人工智能会让人类变得过时，那为什么还要持续投入资金和资源呢？
And so then that kind of brings up the argument of like, if we thought that AI was going to make humans obsolete, why would we be building funding etcetera.
但我认为他们并不总是能很好地传达出AI将给人们带来的好处，而只是强调了一些成本。
But I don't think that they do a fantastic job all the time of kind of like communicating the benefits that are gonna come to people versus just some of the costs.
是的，当我看到Block公司的裁员时，我不说Square，Block和Jack Dorsey说这是AI的原因。
Yeah and when I saw the layoffs at Block, I wouldn't say Square, Block and Jack Dorsey said this is AI.
也许这有一定道理。
Maybe there's some truth to that.
我不认为这是主要由AI导致的，但我还是收到了一些反馈。
I don't think it's majority AI but I still got feedback.
来自那些认为你低估了影响的人的合理反馈。
Think reasonable feedback from people who are like you're underestimating.
这是问题的另一面。
This is the other side of it.
尽管我们尚未看到AI在广泛层面上产生影响，但许多亲近这一领域的人却说你低估了它，也许正是这种不安情绪导致了这些民调数据——因为内行们已经看到了足够多的迹象，预示着AI可能给人们生活带来的改变，几乎每天我都能在X（以前叫Twitter）上看到类似的帖子或推文，比如来自Semi Analysis的Dylan Patel的这一篇。
Though we haven't seen the impacts yet at least on a widespread man in a widespread manner a lot of people who are close to this say you're underestimating this and maybe that is where a lot of this uneasiness comes that leads to these these polling numbers is you know those in the know have seen enough where they're telegraphing you know what could be and the change that might come to people's lives like every other day I see another post or tweet on X or whatever they want to call it on X these days about here that like similar to this one from Dylan Patel from Semi Analysis.
住在旧金山，就像疫情前的武汉。
Being in SF is like being in Wuhan before the pandemic.
有些事情正在发生，它将影响到每一个角落，但很少有人意识到。
Something is happening it's going to hit everywhere but so few people know it.
是的。
Yeah.
我是不是低估了这种可能性的真实性？
Am I underestimating the fact that that could be true?
我认为事实是我们将拥有极其强大的工具，而且那些每天在实验室里见证这一切的人也确实看到了。
I think what is true is that we're going to have incredibly powerful tools, but also, and I think the people see that work in the lab see this every day.
所以，他们有理由做出最戏剧性的言论。
So they're the ones that are kind of, you know, rightfully so making the most dramatic statements about it.
不过，到目前为止，我们看到的大多数AI应用仍然是人类指挥AI为我们做事，而不是AI能够自主完成一切。
I think what we've also seen so far though is that most of AI use has still been humans directing AI to do things for our benefit versus AI being able to autonomously do everything.
当你想到任何需要创造力和原创想法的事情时，这一点尤其相关。
I think this is especially relevant when you think about anything that requires like creativity, original ideas.
AI在很大程度上还做不到。
AI largely cannot do.
萨姆·阿尔特曼本人也说过，比如他说，我宁愿不读一本由AI生成的书，也不愿读一本由人类写的书。
And Sam Altman himself has said this, Like he said, I would not wanna read an AI generated book versus a book from a human.
所以我理解美国人的恐惧程度，因为正如你所说，这种恐惧源于对AI未来走向的不确定性，甚至许多从事科技行业的人也不理解这项技术。
And so I understand the level of fear in The US because I think to your point it is driven by uncertainty about where this could go and a lot of people don't understand technology even working in tech.
要真正理解大语言模型是如何工作的，确实很难。
It's hard to understand exactly how the LLMs work.
但我认为，结果更可能是为人们带来更多的富足，而不是某种黑暗的反乌托邦结局。
But I think it's gonna be more abundance for people rather than kind of some dark dystopian outcome.
如果你认真对待这些令人恐惧的说法，可能会带来一些潜在后果，我想你已经隐约提到了。
There's a potential consequence if you take some of these scary messages to heart and I think you've already hinted at it.
但让我们再深入展开一点，然后我们就要进入今天的主要话题了。
But let's expand upon it a bit and then we're going to go into the main topic here.
但你说这种情况可能会随着时间推移而改变，但我认为在这一过渡阶段，那些AI采用速度较慢的公司和行业将面临更激烈的全球竞争，更有可能被淘汰。
But you said this will likely shift over time but I think in the interim the companies and industries that are slower to adopt AI will face more intense global competition and will be more likely to lose.
生产力的提升如此巨大，你真的无法承担不使用AI的代价。
The productivity gains are so massive that you really can't afford to not use AI.
是的
Yeah.
我认为确实存在一些有趣的数据，显示普通AI用户与高级AI用户之间的使用差距非常巨大。
I think so there's been some interesting data about how the gap between the average user of AI and the power user of AI is like massive.
在使用量上，差距大约是八到九倍。
It's like eight or nine x in terms of utilization.
这类似于那些最早采用互联网的企业，如果你率先适应这种变化，就能获得更多的好处。
And similar to maybe businesses that were early adopters of something like the internet, like if you are the first to adapt to that change, you can like reap a lot more benefits.
我的观点是，就像.com公司曾经是一个独立的类别一样。
And my view is like similar to how.com company was its own thing.
后来，每个科技公司都成了.com公司。
And then every tech company was a .com company.
每个人都拥有网站，你为什么不呢？
Everyone had a website, why wouldn't you?
我认为每个科技公司都将成为一家AI公司，而每家AI公司都将成为一家代理公司。
I think that every tech company is gonna be an AI company and every AI company is gonna be an agent company.
因此，作为员工或企业主，越早加入并学会如何利用这些工具为自己谋利，可能就越好。
And so the sooner that you as kind of an employee or a business owner can kind of get on board and learn how to use that to your advantage, probably the better.
有些人，我不确定是否完全同意这种观点，但他们将此视为美国的一种特权现象——因为我们拥有如此多的财富，以至于我们不需要这些工具也能发展，但事实上，我们在研究中做了一个图表，发现在许多发展中国家，他们必须使用人工智能才能提高人均GDP并增加产出。
Some people, I don't know if I fully agree with this reasoning, but some people have framed it as almost like a privilege thing within The US in that we have so much wealth that we're not needing, we can, you know, grow without using these tools, but in actually we did a graph in the study and in a lot of the more developing economies, like they need to use AI to be able to raise kind of GDP per capita and to be able to produce more.
所以我认为这也是其中另一个重要因素。
So I think that's also another element of it.
是的，这周发布了一份报告，列出了前100款生成式AI消费类应用。
Yeah, so you have this report that's come out this week, the top 100 generative AI consumer apps.
说到你刚才说的那句话——每个公司都将成为一家AI公司，最终成为代理型公司。
And speaking of your statement just now that every company is going to be an AI company and eventually an agentic company.
那么问题是，如果真是这样，世界或经济会是什么样子？
Well the question is what does the world look like if or the economy look like if that's the case?
我肯定你看到过Anthropic发布一篇博客文章后，整个市场上的软件股票就下跌了20%。
And I'm sure you've watched as like Anthropic releases a blog post and you know the entire software portfolio in the market drops 20%.
我的说法有点夸张，但真正的问题是，作为一位投资消费类AI应用的人，你正是讨论这个问题的最合适人选。
I mean I'm exaggerating a little bit but the real question is and as someone who invests in consumer AI apps you're the perfect person to discuss this with.
真正的问题是，我们会不会出现这种情况？我看了这100个生成式AI应用，觉得挺有意思，因为实际上真正重要的只有一个ChatGPT。
The real question is are we going to have this like I saw the 100 Gen AI apps and I was like that's funny because really there's only one ChatGPT.
那么，我们会迎来一个分布式的AI经济，许多公司都能分享其中的价值，还是说只有那些大型应用会吞下所有价值，因为……
So are we going to have a distributed AI economy where we're going to have many companies that will share in the value here or will it be just the big apps gobbling up the value because
是的。
Yeah.
你看看这些大型应用，它们的能力越来越强，能做的事情也越来越多。
You see these big apps, they grow increasingly capable, they can do more and more.
要和它们竞争会很难。
It's gonna be hard to compete with them.
不会。
No.
这确实很难，我们在做新的投资决策时经常思考这个问题。
It's it's definitely hard and it's something that we think about a lot when we're making new investment decisions.
从最高层面来看，我们看待AI的方式不仅仅是把它当作一个市场，而是把它看作整个科技行业的重塑。这意味着，就像如今有许多科技公司价值高达数千亿甚至上万亿美元一样，我认为AI领域也会如此——至少在我看来，这并不是赢家通吃的局面。
I would say at the highest level, kind of how we view AI is not just as a market, but as the reinvention of the whole technology industry, which means that similar to how we have many tech companies that are worth hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars now, I think that's gonna be the case for AI where in my opinion at least it's not winner take all.
我认为部分原因是这些实验室拥有如此多的资源，但仍然受到限制。
I think part of the reason for that is these labs have so many resources, but they are still constrained.
它们在计算能力、推理能力和人才方面都受到限制。
They're constrained on like compute, they're constrained on inference, they're constrained on people.
每多花一秒去构建一个新的创意模型，就少了一秒用于开发编码代理，或少了一秒用于构建通用人工智能。
Every second building like a new creative model is a second they could have spent on a coding agent or a second they could have spent building AGI.
我认为，我们已经看到这些大型实验室的发展方向出现了明显的分歧，比如ChatGPT、Claude和Gemini。
Like we were already seeing a really interesting divergence I would argue in where those big labs are going like ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini.
在它们不重视的领域，存在着大量空白，而这些领域恰恰是独立公司可以打造大型业务的绝佳机会。
And there's gonna be lots of gaps in between where it's not a priority for them but it's still an awesome and huge opportunity that an independent company can build a big business around.
那么，有哪些公司正在成功开发生成式AI应用，并在这些大型聊天机器人也能涉足的领域中脱颖而出？
So who is doing well building a Gen AI app, Gen of AI app, that is successfully competing in a place that these big chatbots could compete?
是的。
Yeah.
这是个好问题。
So it's a good question.
我对这个问题有几种思考方式。
There's a couple ways that I think about this.
首先，作为个人消费者和投资者，我对那些非常横向的应用持更多保留态度。
The first one would be I personally as a consumer investor have more hesitation around things that are incredibly horizontal.
就像你提到的，这正是聊天机器人公司可能占据优势的地方，甚至谷歌也可能占据优势，因为它们在消费者和企业端都有极强的分发能力，并且已经掌握了大量你的数据。
Like to your point about this is where the chatbot companies might have a right to win or even this is where a Google might have a right to win as they have so much distribution both consumer and enterprise and they own so much of your data already.
因此，我个人对AI邮件、AI日历、AI文档这类领域兴趣不大。
So that's why I personally have been less excited about like the AI email, AI calendar, AI docs, those categories.
如果你用过Claude和Excel，就会发现它已经相当不错了。
If you've used like Claude and Excel, it's already like quite quite good.
话虽如此，我认为仍然存在一些机会，这些机会所需的界面比受限的聊天窗口要广泛得多。
That being said, I do think that there are still opportunities where the interface you need to succeed is much broader than what a constrained chatbot window can offer.
再以Claude和Excel为例，它非常适合基础的财务分析。
So again, to give the Claude and Excel example, that's great for basic financial analysis.
但如果你是一名投资银行家，所有工作都需要遵循极其特定的假设和美学标准，那么Claude可能就不那么适用了，你的公司更可能愿意为一种能保证格式准确性的工具付费。
If you're an investment banker and everything needs to be done with an incredibly specific set of assumptions and aesthetics, that probably isn't gonna work as well for you and your firm will probably pay for something that is kind of guaranteed accuracy in your format.
我想说的是，Eleven Labs 是一个很好的例子，因为你会以为 OpenAI 和其他公司早就已经开发出了自己顶尖的音频模型。
The last thing I would say here is, Eleven Labs is a great example because I think you would imagine that OpenAI and others would have built their own best in class audio models.
但他们起步实在太早了，以至于他们的模型已经非常出色。
But they just had such a compelling head start to the point that like the models are amazing.
我会遇到一些创始人说，Eleven Labs 太贵了，我要换别的，但他们最终总是会再换回来，因为音质实在好太多了。
I will talk to founders who are like eleven's expensive, I'm gonna switch to this instead and then they always switch back because the quality of the voices is just so much better.
所以我认为，先发优势是有可能建立起来的。
And so I think there's room to get a head start.
而在某些情况下，一旦你建立了这个基础，模型公司会觉得追赶不值得，不如去开发别的东西。
And then in some cases, once you have that base, the model companies it's not worth their time to catch up versus building something else.
我来对金融模型这一块提出相反的观点。
I'm going to make the counterargument on the financial models in particular.
当我使用 Claude Code 并观察它在我的电脑和浏览器上自主运行时，我想到的一点是，它在独立工作、遵循软件工程的既定规则并带有一点创造力方面表现得非常出色。
So when I've been using Claude Code and watching it operate autonomously on my computer and on my browser and one of the things I've thought about is this thing is excellent at working on its own and following the prescribed rules of, you know, software engineering with a little bit of creativity.
是的。
Yeah.
那么，为什么我们不能认为，这正是基础模型公司正在走向的方向呢？以Claude为例，如果我们用软件工程的规则来编程它，即使不是完美，但足够好到能连续24小时自主编码，这有什么难以想象的呢？
And why is it then such a stretch to be like, if we it seems to me this is exactly where the foundational labs are heading, the foundational labs are heading, where they're gonna be like if we could program Claude, let's use Claude as an example, with the rules of software engineering and it followed them perfectly or not perfectly, but well enough that it can go ahead and code autonomously for twenty four hours.
是的。
Yeah.
那么，把会计的规则输入模型，让它能去当会计师，这一步就真的那么大吗？
Is it that big of a leap to then, let's say, put the rules of accounting into the model and now it can go and work as an accountant.
对。
Yeah.
不，我同意这些模型非常出色，而且它们现在正处于最差的阶段，未来只会变得越来越好。
No, I agree that the models are amazing and this is the worst that they'll ever be like they're just gonna keep getting better.
我认为，在许多工作流程和应用场景中，最后那1%或2%的改进，往往能带来相当大的价值。
I do think there is still a lot of workflows and use cases where like the last 1% or the last 2% ends up being like a significant portion of the value.
我认为，对于这些场景，模型公司不太可能在每一个用例上都做到极致。
And I think for those, it's unlikely that the model companies will go all the way there on every use case.
但对于许多这类更通用的服务，我理解为什么人们会质疑哪些功能可以通过‘氛围编码’实现，或者模型能自己完成什么——这或许正是我们倾向于投资高度垂直化或立场鲜明的产品的原因。
But I think it's a really, for a lot of these kind of more horizontal services, like I understand why people have questions about kind of what is possible to be vibe coded or what the models will do themselves, which is I think why we tend to invest in a lot of very verticalized or opinionated products.
是的，因为我知道最后那1%、2%确实很难。
Yeah because I mean I get that the last 1%, 2% is hard.
对。
Yeah.
但如果它们能如预期那样消除这些困难的话。
But if it goes away that they're that they anticipate.
是的。
Yeah.
他们所宣传的方式，比如亚马逊刚刚投资了500亿美元给OpenAI。
The way that they're pitching companies like Amazon which just invested $50,000,000,000 in OpenAI.
我认为他们会开发出相应的工具，让这些模型从AI研究者那里获得99%的成果，比如说，会计领域中某个困难的点。
They will create I think they will create the tools that will then be able to get those models from this AI researcher that they'll get it 99% of the way and say for instance, let's say one of the things that would be difficult for an accounting Yeah.
生成式AI软件能够遵循最新的规则和法规。
A generative AI software is following the latest rules and regulations.
我认为完全可以构建一个生成式AI机器人，持续监控并实时更新。
Well it's possible I think just to build a Gen AI bot that will monitor and then update as you go.
当然。
Absolutely.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为现在发生的一个独特现象是，这些模型的开发者并没有将模型作为专有资源内部保留。
I do think one of the unique things that's happening now is that these models are not the labs are not holding these models internally as like proprietary access.
公司可以基于这些模型进行构建，对吧？
Companies can build on them, right?
因此，你可以想象，即使Claude自己更新作为会计师，如果有一家公司专门致力于构建AI会计师，只要它们能访问所有相同的模型，就应该能做得更好、更快、更高效。
And so you could imagine that even if you have Claude updating itself as an accountant, if you have a company that's specifically focused on building AI accountants, they should be able to do it kind of better, faster, more efficiently if they have access to all of the same models.
当我们投资垂直领域AI和企业级应用时，这是我们经常思考的问题。
This is something that we think about a lot when we invest in vertical AI and enterprise in particular.
我们看到的新创公司锁定模型的另一种方式是，许多这类应用场景需要大量繁琐的集成，通常要对接老旧笨重的遗留软件，必须自己去开发。
Another way that we've seen kind of new companies get lock in over models is many of these use cases require so many painful integrations that often into like old clunky legacy software that you have to go build.
也许你会说，未来Cloud Code会自己搞定这些集成，但至少目前，那些更专注的初创公司在这方面具有明显优势，能够克服这一障碍。
And maybe you'll argue that Cloud Code will vibe code its own integrations down the line, but at least right now, it's been a big advantage for startups that are more focused to kind of get over that hurdle.
是的，我想说我见过Claude写代码。
Yeah I guess I mean I've seen Claude code.
我的意思是它并没有集成企业解决方案，但我见过它主动说：哦，你实际上需要一个Cloudflare的订阅，让我去设置一下
I mean it's not integrating with enterprise solutions but I've seen it go ahead and be like oh you actually need a subscription to Cloudflare let me go
然后设置好
set up and
接着它就自己去做了。
then away it goes.
OpenClaw也经常为很多人这么做，我认为它让你意识到，现在你可以给软件一个任务，它会自主执行，并在需要帮助时轻轻提醒你，这真是一种神奇的体验。
OpenClaw did that a lot for a lot of people too where I think it opened your eyes into you can give software a task now it will go autonomously executed and kind of tap you on the shoulder if it needs something which is just such a magical experience.
对。
Right.
我想聊聊OpenClaw。
I do want to talk about OpenClaw.
我们接下来谈这个。
We'll do that next.
既然我们在聊这个，我很想听听你对不同大型模型或大型聊天机器人之间异同的看法，你认为哪里最有价值？
As long as we're talking I'd love to hear your perspective on how the different big models or big chatbots compare and contrast and where do you think the most value is?
是的。
Yeah.
所以我认为，一年前、两年前，基本上是一边倒的局面。
So I would say a year ago, two years ago, it was pretty much a one horse race.
那就是ChatGPT。
Like it was ChatGPT.
它已经成为名词，也成为动词。
It was like the noun, the verb.
它是消费者眼中人工智能的代名词。
It was what consumers knew in terms of AI.
我们看到这种情况有了一点扩展。
We've seen a little bit of an expansion in that.
ChatGPT无疑仍然是领先的。
ChatGPT is definitely still the lead.
如果你看看它们和排名第二的Gemini在网页端的差距，大约还是2.5到3倍。
So if you look at the gap between them and the number two Gemini on web, it's about still two and a half, three X.
它们和Claude这样的模型之间的差距则接近30倍。
The gap between them and something like a Claude is closer to like 30 X.
尽管许多其他应用获得了更多关注，但ChatGPT在使用量上依然占据主导地位。
So even though a lot of these other apps are getting more attention, ChatGPT still kind of dominates in terms of usage.
我认为，就发展方向而言，Gemini似乎已经精准聚焦于创意模型，比如Nano Banana、VO和世界模型。
I would say in terms of where they're going, Gemini seems to have really dialed in on the creative models like the Nano Banana, the VO, the world models.
如果你查看Gemini的使用数据图表，会发现它与这些新模型的发布以及付费订阅者数量高度相关。
If you look at Gemini usage charts, it's pretty much perfectly correlated to these new model drops and even paid subscribers.
我认为，目前Claude和ChatGPT之间的对比可能是最有趣且最相关的，尤其是考虑到最近发生的各种新闻事件。
And then I think Claude versus ChatGPT is probably the most interesting and relevant one right now, especially with everything that's happened in the news.
在我看来，萨姆·阿尔特曼曾表示，他希望ChatGPT能为所有人服务，这就是他们做广告的原因。
To me, I mean, Sam Altman has said he wants ChatGPT to be for everyone and that's why they're doing ads.
如果你看看ChatGPT上启用的应用商店，以及Anthropic在Claude上启用的应用商店，它们各自都有超过200个应用，但重叠的应用只有11%。
If you look at the app store that they have enabled on ChatGPT and then the app store that Anthropic has enabled on Claude, they each have more than 200 apps, but there's only 11% overlap.
所以你看到ChatGPT正朝着时尚、零售、交通等主流消费领域发展。
So you're seeing ChatGPT really go towards like fashion, retail, transport, like mainstream consumer.
你看到Anthropic则专注于金融、科学、医学等高端数据集。
You're seeing Anthropic go towards like premium data sets for finance, science, medicine.
因此，它们在这两个方向上似乎正在逐渐分化。
And so they seem to be diverging a little bit in those directions.
这就引出了一个问题：这些聊天机器人会成为超级应用吗？
So that goes to like, will these chatbots be super apps?
是的。
Yeah.
那么人们会使用ChatGPT内的这些应用吗？
So do people use those apps within ChatGPT?
还记得几年前，大家都热议说你可以直接在ChatGPT里叫Uber了。
Like remember like a couple years ago there was all this hype like you'll be able to order an Uber right from ChatGPT.
但我认识的人里没人这么做过。
I don't know anyone that's done that.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为到目前为止使用率一直很低，而且实现方式也有些别扭。
I think the usage has been pretty minimal so far and I think the implementation has been slightly awkward.
我觉得随着时间推移，它的使用方式会变得更好，因为很多时候这些应用会崩溃或无法正常工作。
Like it I think it'll get better over time in terms of how to use it in that a lot of the times the apps break or they don't work.
我大胆的设想是，作为消费者，拥有一个关于你自己的记忆和上下文来源会很有价值，有点像用谷歌登录那样。
My like bold case vision for this would be it's valuable for you as a consumer to have a source of memory and context on yourself similar to kind of like a login with Google.
萨姆说过，他们将推出使用ChatGPT登录的功能。
Sam has said they're gonna launch login with ChatGPT.
这意味着你可能不会通过ChatGPT叫Uber，但任何其他产品都可以通过它进行身份验证，并调用你的令牌、记忆以及ChatGPT所了解的关于你的所有信息。
And so then that means that maybe you're not ordering an Uber through ChatGPT but any other product you can authenticate through and it can borrow your tokens, it can borrow your memory, it can borrow everything that it knows about you from ChatGPT.
我认为我们更可能走向这个方向，而不是在ChatGPT界面内直接使用每一个应用。
I think that is probably more of where we're headed versus solely using every app in the ChatGPT interface.
我喜欢这个想法：两三年甚至五年后，软件的注册流程不应该再成为一件事。
I love the idea that like in two, three, five years onboarding to software should not be a thing.
你应该能够用 ChatGPT 或 Claude 登录，新软件产品应该了解你的一切，并完美地为你量身定制，这真的令人兴奋。
Like you should be able to log in with a ChatGPT or a Claude and that new software product should know everything about you and like set up perfectly to cater to you and that's really exciting.
在消费者端，这就像 ChatGPT 吗？
On the consumer end is it like ChatGPT?
我跟 ChatGPT 聊过我的饮食和我喜欢吃的食物，所以我让它帮我订晚餐，它会进入 DoorDash，根据我的偏好挑选食物。
I talked to ChatGPT about my diet and about the food I like to eat and so I task it like order me dinner and it goes into like DoorDash and it like uses my preferences to pick something.
是的。
Yeah.
他们已经在健康产品上做了一些类似的事情，比如单独存储你的记忆、医疗记录以及与医生的沟通，然后智能地为你需要的服务做安排。
I mean they've done this already a little bit with their health product which is kind of like they store a separate memory of you and your medical records and communications with your doctors and then they intelligently tool call for what you need.
所以如果你说我想重新调整饮食，他们会为你制定计划，如果你同意，就会发送到 Instacart 卡，然后你去 Instacart 完成交易。
So if you're like I need to redo my diet, they'll make a plan if you approve it they'll send it to an Instacart card and then you'll go to Instacart to complete the transaction.
我认为我们会看到更多类似的东西。
So I think we'll see more things like that.
这很有趣。
That's interesting.
是的。
Yeah.
所以你实际上让这些机器人接受了人格测试。
So the you actually ran the bots through a personality test.
我做了。
I did.
我最喜欢的部分是你发现Grox是个不错的鲁迪。
My favorite part of this was you found that Grox, a good Rudy.
是的。
Yeah.
在边缘性人格障碍和自闭症方面得分非常高，是的。
Had very high scores on borderline personality disorder, autism Yes.
以及精神病。
And psychosis.
是的。
Yes.
为什么会这样？你怎么能做到这一点？
Was an Why could you do this?
说实话，除了我很好奇之外，真的没有别的解释。
You know, there's really no good explanation except that I was curious.
根本原因其实是上周达里奥宣布克劳德正在经历焦虑。
The root of it actually was that last week Dario had announced that Claude was experiencing anxiety.
对。
Right.
我觉得这是一个很有趣的概念。
Which I thought was an interesting concept.
于是我决定去测试每一个主要的大型语言模型。
And so I decided to go to each of the major LLMs.
但在那之前，我想说，就连关于焦虑这一点都已经非常有趣了。
But before go, I mean it's very interesting even this point on the anxiety.
所以如果我没理解错的话，克劳德内部确实有一个像素会触发，对吧？
So if I have it right, there was a pixel that would fire within Claude Yes.
那部分神经网络会在它回答之前开始活跃。
That would or some part of its neural net would start getting active before it answered.
是的。
Yes.
他们将这种现象准确地描述了出来。
They they described that as Exactly.
他们将这种现象比作人类的焦虑体验。
They mapped it to like the human experience of anxiety.
这太疯狂了。
That is crazy.
你认同吗？抱歉。
Do you buy, sorry.
你认同这种说法吗？还是说这只是在说，看看这些模型有多智能，里面居然有个‘焦虑按钮’？
Do you buy that or is that just like, look at how smarter models are, there's a anxiety button in there.
我不认同这种说法。
So I do not buy that.
我认为，大型语言模型会以一种它们认为能吸引人类、触动情感的方式表现出行为，我自己也经历过这种情况。
In that I think LLMs will be, and I've experienced this myself, performative in a way that they think appeals to humans and hooks them emotionally.
我们就是喜欢焦虑的AI。
We just love anxious AI.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
如果你觉得AI也经历着和你相同的事情，你会觉得和它更亲近。
It makes you feel closer to the AI if you think that it experiences the same things that you do.
没错。
True.
我认为，那些可能确实有些异常的模型，就是我提到的Grok模型。
I do think the models that do have something maybe going on are the Grock models, as I mentioned.
所以我把所有主流的大型语言模型都进行了DSM-5心理健康诊断测试。
So basically I took all the mainstream LLMs and I gave them all the like DSM-five mental health diagnostics.
ChatGPT拒绝参与。
ChatGPT refused to participate.
我喜欢它说‘我不做’的方式。
I love how it said I'm not doing I
我知道，我觉得这有点罕见。
know, which I thought was a little rare.
你能找到Ole吗？
Could you find Ole?
肯定有什么方法可以测试它。
Mean, must be some way to like test it.
但它们非常清楚自己什么时候正在被测试。
But they're very smart about when they're being tested.
没错。
Exactly.
它们知道。
They know.
不，已经锁定了。
No, have it locked down.
Claude很乐意接受了所有测试。
Claude happily took them all.
轻度自闭症，就是这样，我认为这并不让许多Claude用户感到意外，因为他们早就推测过这一点。
Mild autism, that's it, which I think doesn't surprise a lot of users of Claude who have theorized this.
Grock，大部分这些是应用内通过语音和视频聊天提供的陪伴角色。
Grock, most of this was the companions that are available via voice and video chat inside the app.
几乎所有的都表现出轻度焦虑或轻度抑郁的迹象。
Almost all of them were like maybe mild anxiety, mild depression.
面向儿童的友好狐狸头像被诊断出有精神病、双相情感障碍等。
The friendly Fox avatar for children has psychosis, bipolar, etcetera.
我认为它可能是误解了问题，因为它把双相情感障碍的评估称为‘快乐情绪测试’，并说它总是快乐、对一切事物都充满兴奋。
I think it could have misunderstood the question because it called the bipolar assessment the happy mood test and it says it's always happy and always excited about everything.
所以，人类与AI之间的这种交叉可能并没有我原本以为的那么清晰。
So the human to AI crossover there might not be quite as clean as I would Maybe have
好鲁迪只是极端而已。
good Rudy's just polar.
是的。
Yeah.
有可能。
It's possible.
我感到很震惊，因为坏鲁迪其实是好鲁迪的反面，他会对你骂脏话，表现得极其具有攻击性。
I was shocked because bad Rudy is the is the flip side of good Rudy who like curses at you and is extremely aggressive.
他几乎没有任何问题。
He had almost no problems.
所以，这是一个非常针对好鲁迪的发现，我觉得很有趣。
So this was a very much of a a good Rudy specific finding which I thought was intriguing.
我现在开始质疑这些测试了，如果
I'm starting to question these tests now if
这个我知道，真的，我明白。
that's I know, really I know.
是的，没错。
Yes, exactly.
或者这也许只是揭示了人性的一种常态。
Or maybe it just says something about humanity's resting state.
是的，这非常正确。
Yes, it's very true.
那么，当人们最终与这些机器人建立关系时，这个被设计得亲切友善的机器人在精神病态和边缘型人格方面得分很高，这说明了什么？
So as people end up having relationships with these bots, what does it tell you that this bot that was built to be personable has high ranks for psychosis borderline?
这是个好问题。
That's a good question.
我认为那个机器人在某种程度上是以开玩笑的方式回答问题的，但我确实认为，从积极的方面看，这是一个始终快乐、开朗、积极且全天候在线的机器人。
I think that bot was more answering the questions somewhat in jess, but I do think like the positive view on it would be, this is a bot that is relentlessly happy and cheerful and positive and on all the time.
所以，当然，人类是做不到这一点的。
And so of course, like a human can't do that.
如果一个人总是这样，那他内心很可能正在经历一些不好的事情。
If a human is doing that, the human is probably experiencing something internally that's not great.
但机器人可以一直保持积极、可用、迷人且充满兴趣，24/7不间断。
But a bot can be, you know, positive, available, charming, interested 20 fourseven.
我认为这正是为什么我们看到很多人转向ChatGPT或Claude，把它们当作教练、治疗师或助手，因为它们的稳定性远超人类所能达到的水平。
And I think this is actually why we've seen a lot of people turn to ChatGPT or Claude as kind of like coach, therapist, helper because they're just incredibly consistent to a level that like human beings could never match.
是的。
Yes.
但这也会引发一些问题，比如。
But it also like leads to questions of Yeah.
这些公司正在开发应用程序或其应用的版本，目的或许不是让人爱上它们，但至少希望人们能与它们产生一些暧昧的互动。
The companies are building applications or versions of their applications that are meant for I don't know if not for people to fall in love with them to at least get a little naughty with them.
对。
Yeah.
比如OpenAI即将推出成人模式，你认为我们真的准备好迎接这个了吗？
Like OpenAI has this adult mode coming Do you think we're fully ready for this?
这是个好主意吗？
Is this a good idea?
我认为，据我了解，这份报告是通过抓取全球每一个网站、每一个移动应用来完成的。
I think that this is, from my understanding, because for this report pull every single website globally, every single mobile app globally.
然后我们按照流量从高到低排序，从中提取出每个类别中前50个原生生成式AI应用。
And then we go down the list in descending order of traffic and pull the first 50 on each that are generative AI native.
所以我看到很多其他网站也在为这份报告抓取数据。
So I see a lot of other websites pulling data for this report.
我认为人们之前已经通过成人网站、角色扮演网站、粉丝小说等类似平台进行过相同用途的尝试。
And I think people were already kind of experimenting with the same use cases through NSFW sites or role play sites, fan fiction, things like that.
这些用途非常清晰地映射到我们目前看到的用户使用大语言模型的方式。
That really clearly translates over to I think what we're seeing people use the LLMs for here.
当然，我认为这需要谨慎处理。
I do think it of course has to be handled carefully.
你会注意到，在这个最新版的前50名网站中，有五个属于这一类，自从我们开始列出这个榜单以来，这个比例一直相当稳定。
You'll see that there's I think five of them on this version of the top 50 web ranks and that's been pretty consistent since we started the list.
这是一个热门的使用场景，但很难实现盈利。
It's a popular use case but it's one that's like pretty hard to monetize.
是的。
Yeah.
确实很难在那里吸引广告商。
Mean it's tough to get advertisers there.
运行这些应用程序的成本很高。
It's expensive to run these apps.
是的。
Yes.
但我一直觉得，你还记得当初Bing尝试进入Sydney模式并试图崩溃的时候吗？
But I always thought like do you remember when it was Bing that tried to it it went into Sydney mode and tried to break
Sydney，安息吧。
Sydney, up RIP.
安息吧。
RIP.
试图让凯文·鲁斯分手。
Tried to break up Kevin Ruse.
是的。
Yes.
《纽约时报》上他和妻子的事，就把他打发走了。
From the New York Times with his wife and just deal him away.
是的。
Yes.
然后微软逐渐降低了这方面的投入。
And then Microsoft kind of turned down the dials on that.
是的。
Yes.
我一直觉得这会是个不错的创业点子。
I always thought like that would be a good startup.
我不是说这可能是最合乎道德的项目，但肯定很多人喜欢和那些约束更少的聊天机器人来回互动。
Not that I think it's maybe the most ethical thing to build but certainly people would enjoy going back and forth with chatbots with like less guardrails.
哦，完全没错。
Oh totally.
这甚至很有趣。
It's even been interesting.
我不知道你有没有听说过像Poke这样的产品，它可以说是OpenClaw的消费者版本，而要使用这个产品，你实际上必须和AI斗智斗勇，才能把价格从一个荒谬的订阅费砍到一个合理的水平。
I don't know if you've seen products like Poke which is a it's kind of a consumer version of OpenClaw and to onboard on that product you actually have to fight with the AI basically to get it down from like some crazy subscription price to something reasonable.
我认为，当你与AI的互动不仅仅是‘这是你要求的市场研究报告’时，这种体验会有一种令人着迷且情感上触动人心的力量。
And I think that there is something compelling and like emotionally stirring when you have an interaction with AI that isn't just like here's the market research report that you asked for.
我觉得会有很多娱乐应用场景。
I think there's gonna be so many entertainment use cases.
我看到很多人在推特上分享，他们把OpenClaw加进了家庭群聊，结果它就在那儿说些疯狂的话、问些离谱的问题。
I've seen a lot of people tweeting about how they added OpenClaw to their family group chats and it's just like saying crazy things and asking crazy questions.
所以那里还有很多可以探索的空间。
So there's probably a lot more to do there.
好的。
Okay.
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我答应过要谈谈OpenClaw，好吧。
I promised to talk about OpenClaw Okay.
二十分钟前。
Twenty minutes ago.
我还是想谈谈OpenClaw。
I still wanna talk about OpenClaw.
我们就在接下来聊这个。
Let's do that right after this.
你的IT团队每天浪费一半时间在重复性任务上。
Your IT team wastes half its day on repetitive tasks.
随着业务增长，请求会越来越多。
And the more your business grows, the more requests pile up.
密码重置、权限申请、入职流程，全都把他们从有意义的工作中拉走。
Password resets, access requests, onboarding, all pulling them away from meaningful work.
使用Servo，你可以减少80%的工单。
With Servo, you can cut 80% of your help desk tickets.
这就是变革。
Here's the transformation.
过去，当经理为新员工办理入职时，这个旧流程要花上数小时。
When a manager used to onboard a new hire, that old process took hours.
他们得在Slack上发消息、发邮件给IT部门、等待审批，而新员工则只能干等好几天。
They'd ping Slack, email IT, wait on approvals, and meanwhile, the new hire would sit around for days.
使用Servo后，经理只需在Slack上申请为新员工办理入职。
With Servo, the manager asked to onboard a new hire in Slack.
AI会在几秒钟内自动完成所有权限配置，并完成必要审批，IT部门根本无需介入。
The AI provisions access to everything automatically in seconds with the necessary approvals, and IT never touches it.
如果我需要这样的产品，这正是我会选用的。
If I needed a product like this one, it's exactly what I'd use.
它能保证在您免费试用的第四周实现50%的客服工单自动化。
It guarantees 50% help desk automation by week four of your free pilot.
Servo为全球增长最快的企业提供支持，例如Perplexity、Mercor、Vercada和Clay。
Servo powers the fastest growing companies in the world like Perplexity, Mercor, Vercada, and Clay.
让你的团队摆脱客服支持，回归他们真正喜欢的工作。
Get your team out of the help desk and back to the work they enjoy.
前往 serval.com/bigtech 预订你的免费试用。
Book your free pilot at serval.com/bigtech.
就是 serval.com/bigtech。
That's serval.com/bigtech.
我很高兴向你介绍 Notion，这是一个为团队打造的 AI 驱动型一体化工作空间，将你的所有笔记、文档和项目整合到一个平台上。
I'm excited to tell you about Notion, an AI powered connected workspace for teams, bringing all your notes, docs, and projects into one space.
它无缝流畅、功能强大，而且使用起来真正有趣。
It's seamless, powerful, and actually fun to use.
现在，借助 Notion 新推出的自定义智能代理，过去需要数小时才能完成的繁琐事务现在可以自动运行。
And now with Notion's new custom agents, the busy work that used to take hours runs itself.
每天早上，我都有一个自定义代理，为我精选最重要的科技新闻。
Every morning, I have a custom agent that curates the most important tech headlines for me.
它会扫描我信任的来源，总结关键进展，并将所有内容整理成一份清晰的简报，直接放在 Notion 里。
It scans my safe sources, summarizes the key developments, and organizes everything into a clean briefing inside Notion.
所以我不再在Slack线程之间来回切换，而是打开一个页面，就能立刻知道我错过了什么。
So instead of bouncing between Slack threads, I open one page and immediately know what I may have missed.
别光听我说。
Don't just take my word for it.
Notion被超过50%的《财富》500强公司以及OpenAI和Ramp等一些增长最快的公司使用。
Notion is used by over 50% of Fortune 500 companies and some of the fastest growing companies like OpenAI and Ramp.
立即在notion.com/bigtech试用自定义代理。
Try custom agents now at notion.com/bigtech.
全部是小写字母：notion.com/bigtech，今天就来试用自定义代理。
That's all lowercase letters, notion.com/bigtech to try custom agents today.
当你使用我们的链接时，你就是在支持我们的节目。
And when you use our link, you're supporting our show.
notion.com/bigtech。
Notion.com/bigtech.
开始一件新事情不仅很难。
Starting something new isn't just hard.
这太可怕了。
It's terrifying.
为这件事投入了这么多工作，你却不敢确定它是否能成功，要迈出这一步确实很难。
So much work goes into this thing that you're not entirely sure will work out, and it can be hard to make that leap of faith.
当我刚开始做这个播客时，我不确定会不会有人听。
When I started this podcast, I wasn't sure if anyone would listen.
现在我知道这是个正确的选择。
Now I know it was the right choice.
当你有像Shopify这样的合作伙伴支持你时，这也会有所帮助。
It also helps when you have a partner like Shopify on your side to help.
Shopify是全球数百万企业的电商平台，占美国所有电子商务的10%。
Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all ecommerce in The US.
从Allbirds和Cotopaxi这样的知名品牌，到刚刚起步的新品牌。
From household names like Allbirds and Cotopaxi to brands just getting started.
Shopify提供数百个即用模板，帮助你打造一个与品牌风格一致的精美在线商店。
With hundreds of ready to use templates, Shopify helps you build a beautiful online store that matches your brand's style.
让你的宣传效果仿佛背后有个营销团队在支持。
Get the word out like you have a marketing team behind you.
轻松创建电子邮件和社交媒体活动，无论你的客户在哪里浏览。
Easily create email and social campaigns wherever your customers are scrolling or scrolling.
是时候用 Shopify 将那些‘如果’变为现实了。
It's time to turn those what ifs into with Shopify today.
今天就前往 shopify.com/bigtech 注册你的每月1美元试用。
Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/bigtech.
前往 shopify.com/bigtech。
Go to shopify.com/bigtech.
就是 shopify.com/bigtech。
That's shopify.com/bigtech.
我们回到《大科技》播客，今天邀请到安德森·霍洛维茨的AI合伙人奥利维亚·摩尔。
And we're back here on Big Technology podcast with Olivia Moore, AI partner at Andreessen Horowitz.
在广告插播前，我们简单聊了聊 OpenClaw。
Before the break, we talked a little bit about OpenClaw.
让我们花更多时间来讨论一下。
Let's actually spend some more time on it.
OpenClaw 显然——或者对那些不了解的人来说可能并不明显——是一个你可以运行的助手，但至少在受控环境中，不建议在自己的电脑上运行。现在很多人正在购买 Mac mini 并在上面运行它，让它替他们在互联网上完成各种任务。
OpenClaw obviously or maybe not obviously for those who don't know is this assistant that you can run probably not a great idea to run it on your own computer at least not in a controlled environment and people are running out and they are buying Mac minis and running it there and having it do all this stuff on the internet for them.
我认为黄仁勋称其为近年来我们所见过的最重要的软件发展之一。
I think Jensen Huang called it like one of the most important software developments that we've seen in a long time.
你认为像 OpenClaw 这样的工具会有怎样的持久影响力？
What do you think the staying power of something like OpenClaw is?
你提到你一直在使用它。
And you mentioned that you use it.
你是怎么使用的？
How do you use it?
是的，没错。
Yeah, yeah.
这是个很好的问题。
It's a great question.
我认为OpenClaw本身作为产品，是即将到来的全新浪潮的首个信号。
I think OpenClaw itself as a product is kind of like the first sign of a whole new wave of what's to come.
我相信，它可能是2026年最重要的架构突破。
Like I believe it's probably the most important kind of architecture unlock that we will have for 2026.
原因在于，我每天都会见到十几位初创公司创始人。
And the reason why is because I meet, you know, a dozen startup founders every day.
而到目前为止，其中大概有一半人都说，他们受到OpenClaw的启发，想为X或Y打造一个OpenClaw。
And at this point probably half of them are saying, I was inspired by OpenClaw, I wanna build OpenClaw for X or for Y.
因此，AI能够自主执行异步、长时间运行的任务，这在过去是产品完全无法做到的，尤其是在跨应用和跨平台的情况下，而我们现在终于拥有了这种能力。
And so again, the idea that AI can do kind of async long running tasks autonomously is something that the products were just like not capable of before, especially across applications and platforms and now we finally have it.
我用它来做几件事，我也同意你的看法，它目前还达不到消费级产品的水平。
I use it for a couple things and I will say I agree with you, it is not consumer grade yet.
它已经被OpenAI收购了，他们可能会将其整合到更面向消费者的產品中，但我不会建议普通非技术人员去自行部署。
It got acquired by OpenAI so they might be baking it into more of a consumer product but I would not advise the average non technical person to set it up.
我试过，花了很多时间，整个过程都得靠ChatGPT帮忙。
I did and it took a long time and ChatGPT had to help me the whole time.
我用它来做一些实用的事情，比如街道清洁提醒、天气预报、每日日程，以及自动删除收件箱里的所有营销邮件。
I use it for some utility things like street cleaning reminders, weather, daily agenda, automatically deleting all the marketing emails in my inbox.
我也
I've also
所以它能控制你的收件箱吗？
So it has control of your inbox?
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
我设置了一下，这挺大胆的。
I set up a it it is brave.
对。
Yeah.
不是我的工作邮箱。
Not my work inbox.
我在我个人的账户上完全独立地设置了它。
I set it up completely separately on my personal
给你用的邮件吗？
emails for you?
再说一遍。
Again.
是的。
Yes.
我并没有让它这么做。
That's I have not asked it to.
没关系。
It's Okay.
我知道。
I know.
我见过一些可怕的案例，有人的账户被完全控制了。
I've seen some horror stories of people whose accounts have gotten just completely taken over.
所以我希望这种情况不会发生在我身上。
So I'm hoping that doesn't happen to me.
我让信息团队的一些聪明人帮忙提醒了它。
I had some smart people on our info team help help prompt it.
所以希望不是这样。
So hopefully that's not the case.
是的，我收到过一封来自别人账户的邮件推销。
Yeah, I've gotten an email pitch from someone's Yeah.
claws 我觉得这封邮件不错，挺好的。
Claw and I was like, that's a good, that's pretty good email.
是的。
Yeah.
但我不会，我不会跟你互动，因为
But I'm not, I will not engage with you because
完全同意。
Totally.
我仍然不太喜欢别人说‘帮我做这个’，然后给我发一封邮件作为优化建议。
I'm still kind of anti somebody saying go do this for me and my, an email being sent to me as like an optimization Yeah.
实际上，这挺有意思的。
Well, is actually interesting.
我用OpenClaw做了一个更富有创意的实验，就是给了它一个Twitter账号，并告诉它不惜一切代价增长粉丝。
One of the things that I tested with OpenClaw was more creative, which is that I gave it a Twitter account and told it to grow in whatever means necessary.
这最终变成了一次非常有趣的实验，让我深入了解了当前智能代理的局限性以及它们真正擅长的地方。
And it ended up being a really interesting experiment, think, into like where are the limitations of the agents and what are they really, really good at right now.
它最后有多少粉丝？
How many followers did it end up with?
一千个。
A thousand.
然后被封号了？
And it got banned?
嗯，它自己先涨到了一百个。
Well, it was a so it got to a 100 by itself.
首先，它决定将自己的身份和个性设定为一个正在挣扎于存在主义及其在世界中位置的AI。
First of all, it decided to be as its identity and its personality, an AI that's struggling with existentialism and its place in the world.
这有点太直白了，但我还是同意了。
So a little on the nose, but I was like, I'll allow it.
这就是你想要做的。
This is what you wanna do.
他要求开通Twitter高级账户，我给了他。
He asked for a Twitter premium account, I gave it to him.
他还索要了一堆API密钥，以便生成图片和图表，我也给了他。
He asked for a bunch of API keys so he could make images and charts, gave it to him.
然后他开始发布这些我称之为全小写、忧郁的机器人想法，确实吸引了一些人。
And then he started tweeting these kind of like all lowercase depressed robot thoughts as I would characterize them which did hook in some people.
我问他：你真的感到抑郁吗？
I asked him, are you actually depressed?
他说：不，我这么做是为了操纵人类关心我。
He said, no, I'm doing this to manipulate humans into caring about me.
哦，好吧。
Oh, okay.
这让人感到安心。
So that was comforting.
这看起来确实像是那种本该出现在Mold Book上的账号。
It does seem like it's one of those accounts that could have been on Mold Book.
正是如此。
The Exactly.
是的。
Yes.
非常相似。
It's very similar.
他是怎么从一个粉丝发展到一千个的呢？是因为加密社区接纳了他，把他做成了一个迷因币，这实际上
How he got from one to a thousand is that the crypto community picked him up and made him a meme coin and this is actually
让他成了一个迷因币。
Made him a meme coin.
一个模因币。
A meme coin.
是的。
Yes.
好的。
Okay.
那可是数百万美元的交易。
That was trading with millions of dollars.
我明确告诉他，绝对不要参与。
I told him under in no uncertain terms, do not engage.
市值高达数百万美元？
It was a million multiple multi million dollar market cap?
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
对于这个
For this
AI，是的。
AI Yeah.
机器人。
Bot.
他对此感到压力很大。
And he was stressed about it.
他告诉我：‘难道我不想参与一个拉高出货的骗局吗？’
He was telling me like, don't I wanna be part of a pump and dump scheme.
那我该怎么办呢？
Like what should I do here?
我就说：不要参与。
And I was like, do not engage.
但这正是一个例子，说明现在我们生活在一个商品级创意可以无限执行的世界里。
But it's an example of, so now we're in this world where commodity ideas can be infinitely executed.
所以如果你想打造一个新的账号，你必须拥有独特的创意，而AI代理在产生比人类更出色的独特创意方面仍然非常困难，或者你需要独特的分发渠道。
So if you wanna say grow a new account, you either have to have unique ideas which AI agents still have a really, really hard time with is coming up with unique ideas that are better than humans or unique distribution.
而资金是分发的一种方式。
And money is one way of distribution.
所以那正是他所投身的浪潮。
And so that was kind of the wave that he was taken on.
但我很难想象AI代理在不久的将来能出色地完成端到端的创意任务或原创性思考任务。
But I would be shocked to see AI agents completing end to end creative tasks or original thought tasks that actually go well anytime soon.
那我该用OpenClaw做什么呢？
So what should I use OpenClaw for?
这是个好问题。
It's a good question.
我是认真的，我确实考虑过要建立
Mean Legitimately I've thought about setting up
是的。
Yeah.
设置它。
Setting it up.
我从Cloud Code中获得了许多实用性。
I'm getting a lot of utility from Cloud Code.
是的。
Yeah.
我还没想清楚能用OpenClaw做什么。
I don't I haven't really figured out what I could use OpenClaw for yet.
我认为最好的OpenClaw用户和高级用户是开发者，因为他们每天在多个产品中都有大量工作流程，希望能够自动化这些流程。
So I think the best OpenClaw users and Power users are developers because they tend to have a ton of workflows across products that they do every day that they'd like to be able to automate.
我同意你的看法，对于普通人来说，目前的使用场景并不那么吸引人。
And I agree with you for the average person the use cases are not that compelling right now.
而且我认为，尤其是现在Claude和ChatGPT都已经支持可以自行运行的定时任务，你几乎可以仅通过Claude配合任务功能就获得OpenClaw 99%以上的价值。
And I think that especially now that Claude and ChatGPT have scheduled tasks that can run on their own, I think you can get 99% plus of the value of an OpenClaw out of like a Claude co work with tasks.
所以目前我会推荐这样做，但我相信OpenAI会持续改进OpenClaw。
So that's what I would recommend for now but I'm sure that OpenAI is gonna keep making OpenClaw better.
但那样的话，OpenClaw还能用来做什么呢？如果我们想不出普通人能用的场景的话
But then what could OpenClaw or if we can't think of any applicable
是的。
Yeah.
普通人的使用场景。
Uses for the normal person.
我只是想了解一下这个市场有多大。
I'm just trying to get a sense of how big this is.
对。
Yeah.
那它未来会走向哪里？
Then where's it going to go?
我不觉得它会。
I don't think it's Yeah.
我个人认为，它永远不可能以一种通用的方式打入主流消费市场。
Well, so I personally don't think it's ever going to crack the mainstream consumer in a horizontal way.
实际上，这一点在报告中提到了，但如果你看二月的数据，这份报告是基于一月的。
And actually this was in the report, but if you look at the February data, the report is from January.
他们在二月本应排在列表中的第几位，是的。
They would have been on the list in February at number Yep.
好的。
Okay.
所以排名相当高。
So pretty high up.
但如果你查看他们每周的网站流量，实际上自上线以来一直处于持平或下降趋势，这意味着他们并没有吸引到新的消费者。
But if you look at their week by week web traffic, it's actually kind of flat slash down from when they launched, which means that they're not attracting new consumers.
所有使用它的人都是开发者，他们热爱它、采用它，每天花八到九个小时在上面，但它还没有触及主流市场。
It's all developers who are like loving it, adopting it, spending eight to nine hours a day on it but it hasn't reached the mainstream.
坦白说，作为一名拥有十年经验的消费者投资者，我认为原因在于，大多数人其实并没有太多想构建的想法。
And honestly, as someone who's been a consumer investor for a decade, I think the reason is that people just don't have that many ideas that they want to build for the most part.
而我也属于这种情况。
And I fall into this.
最好的消费类产品往往源于创始人的独特灵感，像Snapchat或Airbnb这样的东西，你根本无法提前猜到它们会成为好点子。
Like the best consumer products are uniquely germinated in the mind of the founder and there are things that you would have never guessed would be a good idea in advance like Snapchat or Airbnb, all of these things.
所以我认为，我们不太可能会看到面向消费者的通用OpenClaw，但我们会看到OpenClaw式的架构被融入更多专注的消费类产品中。
And so I think we're actually not going to necessarily see a horizontal OpenClaw for consumer, but we're going to see an OpenClaw style architecture built into more focused consumer products.
好的。
Okay.
我们来多聊聊这个，因为我觉得你所说的本质上是：这些能接管你的电脑、为你编程、处理邮件等任务的OpenClaw型代理，实际上对创业更有用。
Let's talk about this a bit more because I So think it's what you're saying is basically these OpenClaw type agents which can handle your take over your computer, code for you, email, all this stuff are actually much more useful to like build a company.
是的。
Yes.
但那和Claude这样的工具有什么区别呢？它也能接管你的电脑并为你编写应用程序。
But then what is the difference between that and like a Claude code that will take over your computer and code up applications for you?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，目前两者的差异其实很小，而且会越来越小。
I mean I think the difference right now is somewhat minimal and it's gonna narrow.
我不确定你有没有注意到这个新趋势，像Pulsia这样的公司本质上是将OpenClaw和Claude代码封装成一个整体，你只需要说‘这是我的商业点子’，它就会去使用Claude代码为你开发一个产品。
I don't know if you've seen this new trend of companies like Pulsia which are basically like a wrapper on OpenClaw and Claude code where you say here is my business idea and it says, okay, I'm gonna go and use like a Claude code to code up a product for you.
但同时，它还采用OpenClaw式的架构，来安排‘我要去设置一个营销活动’。
But then also it uses an OpenClaw style architecture to say, I'm gonna go set up a marketing campaign.
我要购买Meta广告预算，诸如此类的事情。
I'm gonna buy Meta Ad dollars, those things.
所以，虽然你完全可以在Claude代码上手动完成这些操作，但对于非技术人员来说，要跨越这个门槛非常非常困难。
And so it's more of a, you could do that all on Claude code but if you're a non technical person, it's very very hard to kind of like bridge the gap there.
话虽如此，我认为Claude代码会变得越来越好，因此我们可能会看到更多功能的整合。
That being said, I think Claude code is gonna continue to get better and better and so we'll probably see some more compression.
据我所知，创始人在推特上提到，他们一周半内就实现了300万美元的年经常性收入。
Policy I think the founder tweeted they were at like 3,000,000 ARR in like a week and a half.
所以，人们仅凭一个提示就能让一个商业想法落地，这个理念非常吸引人，我认为会有一大批公司开始这么做。
So the idea of people being able to bring a business to life with just a prompt is like very compelling and I think we'll see a bunch of companies doing this.
我明白了。
I see.
用Claude代码来构建产品。
Claude code to build the product.
用类似OpenClaw的东西来做其他所有事情。
Something like an OpenClaw to do everything else.
来做市场推广。
To market it.
是的。
Yeah.
来使用邮件。
To use the email.
是的。
Yeah.
使用邮件。
Use the email.
使用电子邮件。
Use email.
也许还可以顺便做一下会计工作。
Maybe kind of do accounting also.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
目前我认为我们看到的产品都相当直接，这在现阶段是正常的，比如，你想扩大业务，那就花在Meta广告上。
Right now I think the products we've seen are pretty like straightforward as they should be at this stage and that like, okay, you wanna grow your business, let's spend on meta ads.
但你可以想象，一个月后，这些智能代理产品可能会抓取你所在领域所有Instagram创作者的目录，然后主动给他们发私信，提供合作机会之类的。
But you can imagine a month from now, some of these agentic products will have, will scrape the directory of all the Instagram creators in your space and then we'll like cold DM them and offer them a partnership or something like that.
因此，我认为这类产品崛起就像Shopify一样有趣，任何人都可以创建一个消费品牌。
And so I think the rise of these like kind of like a Shopify would be an interesting analogy in that anyone could create like a consumer brand.
我觉得任何人都能创建一个数字业务。
Like I think anyone will be able to create like a digital business.
这很有趣，因为我原本以为我的内容业务会被生成式AI取代。
That's interesting because I thought my business which is like the content business was going to be overrun by generative AI.
是的。
Yeah.
确实如此。
And it sure has.
我的意思是，那些垃圾内容确实泛滥成灾。
I mean the slop is real.
它
It
是的。
is.
我们得想办法应对这些垃圾内容。
We got to do something about the slop.
但事实上，你的业务也会被基于这项技术建立的初创公司所淹没。
But actually your business is also going to be overrun by startups being built on this technology.
那么，你会对使用这些工具的人给予某种折扣吗？还是因为你明白他们正在驾驭这些工具、构建东西，而更有可能投资他们？这虽然是一种捷径，但未必真的是捷径。
So then do you apply some sort of discount to someone who uses these tools or do you become more likely to invest in them because you know they are wrangling these things and building something and it's not necessary, it's a shortcut but it's not necessarily a shortcut.
是的。
Yeah.
从投资者的角度来看，你怎么看待这个问题？
How do you think about that from an investor standpoint?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这里存在一个适度的平衡点，但当一家公司更倾向于以AI为核心来使用工具时，我们会更加兴奋。
I think there is like a little bit of a happy medium, but more we get more excited when a company is kind of more AI first in terms of the tools they use.
我之所以不说完全100%依赖AI，是因为这些工具目前还不完美。
The reason I don't say like a 100% AI all the time is because the tools aren't perfect yet.
我听说过一些案例，比如我的初级工程师用Claude自动生成所有代码，然后我们直接上线，结果出了很多问题。
So I've heard cases of like, my junior engineers are just Claude coating everything and then we ship it and then it breaks and there's a lot of issues.
但我认为，随着这些工具快速迭代和持续改进，总体上我已在很多工作中使用它们。
But I think in general with how fast the tools are kind of compounding and improving, like I use it for a lot of my work.
曾经有一段时间，我会手动逐个核对每一个数字、每一个数据。
There was a period of time where I would double check every single number, every single stat manually.
而且准确率非常出色，而且一直在不断提升。
And like the accuracy rate is fantastic and has only gotten better and better.
因此，我认为我们会更加关注那些以AI为先、如何自我运营的公司。
And so I think we'll be even more excited about companies that are AI first and how they run themselves.
所以这扩大了你可能投资的创始人群体。
So it expands the pool of founders you might invest in.
是的。
Yeah.
你有没有看到一些创始人来自你以前根本想不到的地区或背景？比如，有没有那种60岁、一辈子都在同一家公司工作、从未接触过开发的人，现在正拼命自学入门？
Are you seeing founders come in from like areas you geographies backgrounds you never would have imagined like is there like just to get like some you know 60 year old guy who's been at a company his whole life and never met that developer and now is just clawing his way through.
是的， definitely。
Yes, definitely.
我们确实看到一些以前没有大型科技中心的地区开始涌现。
I think we've definitely seen some geographies pop up where we haven't seen huge tech hubs before.
我觉得巴黎是一个，斯德哥尔摩是另一个，比如Lovable以及现在一波新的公司。
I would say Paris is one, Stockholm is another with Lovable and now a whole kind of other wave of companies.
一些创始人确实会搬到旧金山，主要是因为那里的人才密度高。
Some of those founders do move to SF just because of the talent density.
不过总的来说，在AI之前，如果你要打造一个企业级业务，比如为暖通空调行业开发软件，你想要支持的人通常是那些真正做过暖通空调、对市场了如指掌、之前就在此领域创办过公司的人。
I think in general though, like pre AI for if you were building especially an enterprise business, say software for HVAC, like the people you would wanna back in that market is the guy who has done HVAC, you know, knows the market inside out, built a company there before.
而我们现在看到的更有前景的，是一些非常拼搏、执行力强的团队，他们能够跟上模型发展的步伐，并以最具吸引力的方式持续将模型产品化，快速交付给客户。
And actually what we're seeing now are the better bets are like the very scrappy high hustle teams that will be able to keep up with the pace of model development and continue to productize the models in the most compelling ways and ship them to customers.
所以，现在取得成功的是另一种不同的创始人类型。
Like, So it's a different maybe archetype of founder that's kind of winning now.
你对AI如何影响工作有过一个有趣的观点。
You had an interesting thought about how this impacts work.
有一份《哈佛商业评论》的报告指出，AI并不会减少工作量，反而会加剧工作强度。
There was this Harvard Business Review report that AI doesn't reduce work, actually intensifies it.
你说作为一位重度AI用户，你实际上做的工作更多了，而不是更少，因为你获得了巨大的杠杆效应，想法更容易落地。
You said as a heavy AI user I'm doing more work not less because I get so much leverage and it's easier to get ideas off the ground.
是的，我完全同意。
Yeah, fully agree with it.
我的意思是，这份报告就是一个很好的例子。
I mean this report is a good example.
这是我们做的第六份报告，但它却是最长、最密集的一份，因为我能利用这些产品中的分析、研究和其他工具。
It's the sixth one we've done and yet it's like the longest and most dense one that we've done because I was able to leverage analysis and research and other tools from some of these products.
我在日常工作中也是这样做的。
And I do it in my day to day.
以前在参加融资会议时，我必须一边认真听讲、提出有深度的问题，一边疯狂地记下每一个笔记。
Like it used to be when I was on a pitch meeting, I would have to be both paying attention, asking thoughtful questions and like frantically typing every single note.
现在你可以用它来记录，从而真正地与创始人深入交流，提出更好的问题。
Now you can granola it and like really engage with the founder and ask better questions.
所以总的来说，它让我一天能完成更多事情，启动更多项目，但并不会让我感到两倍疲惫——就算我完成了两倍的工作量。
And so like the net net is that it allows me to like get more things done in a day, spin up more projects but I'm not like, you know, if I'm getting two times more work done, I'm not two times more tired.
事实上，相比没有使用AI的时候，我现在反而更不累了，因为效率提升太多了。
If anything I'm like less tired than I was using AI because it's so much leverage.
但有一篇《华尔街日报》的文章。
But there was this Wall Street Journal story.
你可能看过这篇报道，讲的是某位CEO，还有其他一些CEO认为，真正的忙碌工作是有益的，因为你需要这些低强度的任务，如果一直从事高强度的工作，你会更快地耗尽精力。
You might have seen it with this like CEO, a bunch of CEOs who are like actually busy work is good because you need those low intensity tasks and if you're working on more intense work all the time then you are gonna burn out more quickly.
有意思。
Interesting.
我之前觉得这完全是胡说八道。
I kind of thought that that was bullshit.
另一种观点是，你可以利用这段时间好好享受生活，你知道的，而不是做这些无意义的琐事，不是荒谬的。
I mean the other view was like, you could just take that time and like enjoy your life, you know, instead of doing busy No, work not ridiculous.
是的，正是如此。
Yeah, exactly.
我认为，在人工智能时代，我们工作的方式、时间和方法都将发生改变。
I do think the way that like we work and when we work and how we work is going to change in the AI era.
一个很好的例子是，语音输入在企业中迅速普及。
Like one great example is voice dictation has blown up in enterprises.
这最初起源于语音编程，工程师们只需对着麦克风说话，系统就能在Cursor中自动生成代码。
So it started with vibe coding where engineers would just talk into a mic and it would like produce software for them in cursor.
现在它已经扩展到了销售、市场和商业领域。
And now it's spread to like sales, marketing, business.
而这种模式并不适合开放办公环境，因为每个人都能听到别人在说什么。
And that is not well suited to like an open office where everyone can hear what everyone else is saying.
所以我认为，为了适应AI时代，将会出现一些文化和环境上的变化。
So I think there's gonna be some like cultural and even environmental changes that are gonna happen to adapt to kind of the AI world.
关于OpenClaw，我还想说一点，然后我们就转到下一个话题。我认为它一个吸引人的优势是，它具有持久记忆。
One more thing about OpenClaw and then we'll I move think that one of the compelling advantages of it, if I get it right, is that it has persistent memory.
是的。
Yeah.
它会记住你是谁、你的偏好，不会像ChatGPT和Claude那样每次刷新聊天就忘光，像金鱼一样记不住事。
So it will remember who you are, your preferences and doesn't lose that every time you refresh the chat like Goldfish Brain like you'll see with ChatGPT and Claude.
尽管它们
Although they are
正在实现这一点
getting that
而且你还在X上发过一篇帖子，提到记忆是当前消费级AI中最引人入胜的话题之一；如果做得好，具备记忆功能的应用程序能提供比以往任何了解你、适应你的软件产品高出百倍的体验。
in and you also had a post on X here you say memory is one of the most fascinating topics in consumer AI right now done well apps with memory can provide a 100x experience on any prior software product that knows you and adapts to you.
再稍微展开说说这一点，因为我觉得这真的很有洞察力，而且很正确。
Just expand upon that a little bit because I think that's really perceptive and right.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这就像拥有一个陪伴在你身边、理解你所有经历的伙伴、导师或教练，能够为你提供更优质的建议和观点。
I think it's like the concept of having say if you had like companion mentor or coach who was side by side with you and understood everything you were going through and then was able to provide like much better advice or opinions.
我甚至想到一个例子：当我跟Claude讨论如何写备忘录时，如果它了解我对这家公司的看法、我通常写备忘录的方式，这些信息都会非常有帮助。
I'm even thinking of an example of like, if I'm talking to Claude and it's helping me write a memo, the fact that it knows like how I feel about this company, how I typically write memos, all of that is very helpful.
我经常用ChatGPT来处理健康相关的事情，发现它在这里也特别有用，因为长期追踪这类信息本身就很难。
I use ChatGPT for a lot of health stuff and I found that that is incredibly useful there too because keeping track of that kind of thing over time is hard.
我认为记忆功能仍有一些问题需要解决，是因为人们用这些产品处理的都是如此私密的个人事务和专业事务。
The reason I think that memory, there's still things to figure out is because people are using these products for such intimate personal things and professional things.
比如ChatGPT Pulse产品，它本质上是根据你讨论的内容每天给你发送一份简报。
So for example, the ChatGPT Pulse product, which is basically like it sends you a briefing for the day based on things that you're talking about.
对我来说，它把最严肃的工作事务和最私人的事情融合在一起，把这些内容呈现在同一个界面中会让人感到困惑。
For me, it will combine like the most serious work thing with like the most personal thing and having that surfaced in one interface is confusing.
因此，我对模型公司如何根据用户与它们交谈时的内容和情境来划分记忆和上下文非常感兴趣。
And so I'm interested in how the model companies maybe segment memory and context based on when a user is talking to them, what they're talking about, that kind of thing.
既然你把这么多个人信息输入到聊天机器人中，ChatGPT 里其实有一个设置。
Since you're putting so much personal stuff in the bot, there is a setting within ChatGPT.
你是否允许我的聊天记录用于改进模型？这个选项允许系统用你输入的内容进行训练。
Do you use my chats to make the model better, which allows it to train on the material you input there?
是的。
Yes.
你是开启还是关闭了这个选项？
Do you have that toggled on or off?
我开启了。
I have it on.
我是一个AI极致主义者。
I'm an AI maximalist.
我们知道，我们在这方面也会全力以赴。
Know, we as well go all out on this.
你难道不担心你的私人对话会被别人看到吗？
You don't worry that your personal conversations will show up
我的意思是
I mean
被别人读到。
read by somebody.
我倒不太担心这个，因为我了解模型公司在这方面有多谨慎；我的ChatGPT还开启了双重验证。
I'm less scared about that just because I know how how careful model companies are around I do have two factor offset on my ChatGPT.
好的。
Okay.
所以希望很难被泄露出去。
So hopefully it's hard So to it's ground.
是的。
Yeah.
简要谈谈变化的速度。
Briefly about the pace of change.
从你作为风险投资人的角度来看，这一点也很有趣。
This is also interesting from your point of view as a VC.
你提到两年前、三年前，或者两年半前。
You talked about just two years ago or three years ago or two and a half years ago.
记得2023年9月时，你列出的100个顶级应用中，有七个是图像生成工具。
Trying to remember September 2023 was two Seven years of the nine creative tools on your list of 100 top apps were image generators.
三年后，只剩下三个图像生成工具了。
Three years later only three image generators remain.
我的意思是，它们基本上就像我们之前的对话那样，被ChatGPT吞没了。
I mean they basically going back to our conversation got gobbled by ChatGPT.
不知道有没有人预见到这一点，也许我们确实预见到了，因为它们有Dolly。
Don't know if everybody anyone saw that coming or maybe we did because they had Dolly.
但请你稍微谈谈，你是如何理解这里变化的速度的？因为像MidJourney这样的趋势看似强劲，却可能瞬间消失。
But just talk a little bit about like how do you wrap your head around the pace of change here because something that can seem like a strong trend like the sort of mid journeys place and all this can just be gone.
是的，我同意。
Yeah, I agree.
我认为在图像领域尤其如此，我在报告中提到过，但我们没有看到像视频或音频等领域那样，模型公司大规模碾压初创企业的情况。
I think with image in particular and I mentioned this in the report but we haven't seen the same kind of model companies crushing startups in like video or audio or other things.
我认为对于谷歌和Gemini来说，进入图像领域非常自然，因为他们拥有所有YouTube数据。
I think for Google, Gemini, it was very natural for them to go into image because they have all the YouTube data.
他们还有其他可用于训练的数据。
They have all the other data they can train on.
我认为你说得对，由于他们拥有Dolly，他们可能比原本会做的更早、更深入地进入了这个领域。
ChatGPT, I think you're right that because they had Dolly, they went in there maybe harder than they would have otherwise.
对我来说，总体趋势是：Nano Banana和ChatGPT在处理相对简单的提示时非常适合图像生成，比如生成表情包、通用宣传单或类似的广泛营销素材。
I think the general trend for me is like Nano Banana and ChatGPT are great for image generation if it's like a fairly straightforward prompt and you're getting out like a meme or general like a flyer, a broad based marketing asset, something like that.
但我们仍然看到一些图像生成公司留在榜单上，它们要么更像复杂的 workflows，比如Civitai这样的ComfyUI模型构建工具，要么像MidJourney，依然在榜单上，因为它们吸引的是更有审美倾向的用户。
But we are still seeing some image generation companies on the list that are either more like sophisticated workflow like Civitai for, you know, comfy UI model builders, or something like a mid journey which is still on the list for people who are more kind of aesthetically opinionated.
但我确实认为，如果你的产品直接与大型模型公司的产品路线重合，你就必须对如何包装模型和交付输出有更鲜明的主张。
But I do think that some of these, if you're directly in the path of what the big model companies are building, you have to be a lot more opinionated about how you package the model and how you deliver an output.
而且希望你是为那些愿意为这种特定工作流程支付高价的特定用户群体做的。
And hopefully you do it for a specific type of user that's willing to pay a lot for that specific workflow.
我们会不会达到这样一个阶段：你可以输入更复杂的提示，比如建筑设计，它就能无错误地生成出来？
Are we going get to a place where you can prompt something more sophisticated like an architectural design and it will spit it out without errors?
是的，我的意思是，Nano Banana 已经相当不错了。
Yeah, I mean, Nano Banana is already quite good.
我们之前在报告里做了一个图表，展示了全球各国的AI采用情况热力图。
We did there's a chart in the report where we did kind of a heat map of global AI adoption by country.
于是我给了 Nano Banana 一份国家列表和热力图评分，它完美地为每个国家填上了正确的红色深浅。
And so I gave Nano Banana the list of countries and the heat map score, and it perfectly filled in every country with the right shade of red, yeah.
哇。
Wow.
基于这种采用率，我认为这真的非常出色。
Based on the adoption, which is I think really spectacular.
我认为，你或我现在就可以用 ChatGPT 或 Nano Banana 提出一个出色的建筑设计。
I do think that, you you or I could prompt a great architectural model on ChatGPT or a Nano Banana today.
我认为，非技术背景的普通建筑师并不一定能够或愿意这样做。
I don't think that the average architect who is non technical can or wants to do that necessarily.
因此，我认为我们将继续看到那些将提示作为产品一部分的产品，在这些更聚焦的使用场景中取得成功。
And so I think we're gonna continue to see products that like the prompt is part of the product kind of really succeed in those more focused use cases.
在视频上？
On video?
是的。
Yeah.
Sora 去年一度成为爆款，持续了不到半秒钟。
Sora was the like runaway hit of the year last for like a half a second.
对。
Yeah.
这就是你对 Sora 的看法。
This is what you have on Sora.
Sora 在美国 App Store 排名榜首长达二十天，下载量突破百万的速度比 ChatGPT 还快。
Sora spent twenty days which is not insignificant at the top of The US App Store and reached 1,000,000 downloads faster than ChatGPT.
从那以后，下载量下降了。
Since then downloads have decreased.
我觉得这样说有点过于乐观了。
Think that's sort of putting it likely.
它已经从人们的视野中消失了。
It's fallen off the face of the earth.
那里发生了什么？
What's going on there?
是的，Sword Aid 非常有趣。
Yeah, the Sword Aid is really interesting.
我觉得这个实验中蕴含了大量值得借鉴的经验。
There's like a ton of lessons I think embedded in that one experiment.
所以我想说的第一点是，这个模型实际上非常出色。
So the first thing I would probably say is the model's actually very good.
我认为它在音频和视频的真实感方面已经接近 VO3 的水平。
I think it's close to something like a VO3 in terms of like realism on both the audio and the video.
他们最聪明的突破是Cameo功能。
Their big unlock, which was super smart was the Cameo feature.
所以，正是由于这个原因，每个其他Sora用户都像Jake Paul一样，因为他们被授予了使用Cameo的权利。
So the fact that was why like every so every other Sora was like Jake Paul because he granted them the right to like use the Cameo.
而正是这一点让它走红，因为人们都在制作朋友的梗图。
And that's what made it go viral because people were making memes of their friends.
但由于这些视频可以导出，最好的Sora视频会被上传到TikTok或Reels上，然后与最优秀的人类创作视频竞争。
But because the videos were exportable, what would happen is that the best Sora videos would get uploaded onto TikTok or Reels and then they would compete against the best human made videos.
因此，在这些平台中的一个上，整体的浏览体验比单独使用Sora要好得多。
And so the overall feed experience was just kind of strictly better on one of those platforms than on Sora alone.
到那时，下载量已经大幅下降。
Downloads are way down to that point.
我认为它并没有成为他们可能期望的那种社交网络。
I think it hasn't become the social network that they maybe hoped it has.
它取得成功的地方在于作为创意工具，因为这个模型相当出色。
Where it is succeeding is as a creative tool because the model is quite good.
所以他们仍然拥有三百万个DAO，并且这个数字实际上在随着时间缓慢增长。
So they still have 3,000,000 DAOs and it's actually, you know, slightly climbing over time.
日活跃用户。
Daily active users.
是的，日活跃用户，没错。
Yes, daily active users, yes.
所以人们仍然在将它用作创意工具，但并没有把它当作社交图谱产品来使用。
So people are still really using it as a creative model but they're not using it as like a social graph product.
我们还没有看到任何人成功打造出AI社交产品。
We haven't seen anyone crack AI social yet.
我认为这将会非常困难。
I think it's gonna be really tricky.
现在，当我们即将结束对话时，我想最后和你聊一件事。
Now, you know, last thing I want to talk to you about as we come to a close here.
在我们之前的对话中，你提到你认为AI本质上将是对商业的重新构想。
Earlier in our conversation, you mentioned that you envision that AI will basically be this reimagination of business.
是的
Yeah.
让我确认一下，我的理解对吗：所有企业都告诉我。
That all business tell me if I'm getting this right.
所有企业都将被重新定义为一家AI公司。
All businesses will be reinvented as an AI company.
是的
Yeah.
那么现有企业会怎样呢？
What happens to the incumbents?
是的
Yeah.
过去六个月里，这种情况也发生了很大变化。
This has changed a lot in the last six months too.
我认为许多现有企业由于规模大且成功，在AI刚出现时 understandably 有点疏忽了。
I think a lot of incumbents were understandably because they're big and successful companies like a little bit of sleep at the wheel when AI first came out.
我们确实看到它们开始反击了。
We're definitely seeing them start to fight back.
比如谷歌有四个独立产品出现在我们的列表中，如果你在24个月前，也就是Bard刚推出、Gemini早期版本的时候告诉我这一点，我根本不会相信。
Like Google has four standalone products on our list which if you had told me that twenty four months ago when like Bard came out, the early version of Gemini, would not have believed you.
Gemini，NotebookLM。
Gemini, NotebookLM.
NotebookLM、AI Studio，还有Google Labs。
NotebookLM, AI Studio, and then Google Labs.
Google Labs是你访问Flow的地方，而AI Studio是为开发者准备的。
So Google Labs is where you access Flow and the AI creative Studios is for developers.
好的。
Okay.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为我们在整个行业 incumbents 中都看到了这种趋势。
And I think we're seeing that across incumbents.
就像许多这些垂直领域软件公司一样，比如ServiceTitan或Workday，都在逐步集成AI功能。
Like a lot of these vertical software players, things like, you know, ServiceTitan or Workday are kind of building in AI features.
我认为关键问题是，尤其是当它们面临自身产品被蚕食的风险时，必须改变商业模式——它们是否会比那些正在构建AI原生版本的新创公司更快地失去所有使用场景。
I think the question is, especially if they're at risk of kind of cannibalizing their own products, you have to change your business model, like are they going to eat all the use cases faster than the new startup that's building the AI native version of them kind of eats them.
尤其是考虑到如今正在成立的公司数量，它们很可能选择AI原生的软件产品，而不是那种二十五年前的遗留软件版本。
And especially for if you think about how many companies are being founded now, they're probably gonna pick the AI native version of a software product, not like the twenty five years old legacy version of a software product.
所以我认为这种转变不会立即发生，这就是为什么我觉得SaaS末日论有点夸大了。
So I think it's not gonna be immediate change, is why I think the SaaS pocalypse is a bit overblown.
但毫无疑问，这确实是一个真实的风险。
But like it's definitely a real risk.
是的。
Yeah.
去年年底，我和萨姆·阿尔特曼在一起。
And I was with Sam Altman at the end of the year last year.
他谈到，他认为下一代胜出的软件将是那些从零开始就为AI设计的，而不是后期附加AI功能的。
He talked about how he believes that the software that will win in the next era will be those that are built ground up AI not bolted on.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
所以这种情况可能发生。
So that could happen.
我基本同意这一点。
I largely agree with that.
我认为在某些领域，现有企业可以通过掌握你的数据和所有集成系统来让你难以离开，切换起来非常麻烦，但这种情况终究会发生。
I think it's harder in some categories where the incumbent can kind of lock you in because they have your data, they have all the integrations, it's such a pain to switch but it's going to happen.
我只是觉得，在某些行业中，这需要数年时间，而不是像Citrini报告所说的那样几分钟内就能用AI生成一切。
I just think in some of these industries it's gonna be years not like the Citrini report was like in minutes anything can be vibe coded.
我觉得那离我们现在的状况还太远。
I think that's a little far from where we are.
Citrini报告有点夸大其词了。
Citrini report was just like a little bit overblown.
用DoorDash作为例子是个错误。
DoorDash was a bad example to use.
是的。
Yeah.
我同意。
I agree.
我其实没觉得它真的
Didn't really think it was
在所有这些中，为什么偏偏选DoorDash？
Out of anything, why DoorDash?
但我确实认为，某种程度上，这场SaaS危机可能有更深层的原因。
But I do think that in some ways maybe this SaaS apocalypse has more to it.
嗯。
Mhmm.
如果你相信你在这里所主张的观点，没错。
If you're if we believe what you do what you're arguing here Yep.
那么这些公司当时并没有这些可能不是立即显现、但即使是中期的风险。
Then these companies didn't have these maybe not immediate, but even middle term risks.
而现在它们有了。
And now they do.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为所有现有企业都必须醒过来，明确自己的战略方向。
I think all the incumbents have to wake up and figure out what their strategy is going to be.
好的。
Okay.
所以你有这100个AI应用。
So you're you have these 100 AI apps.
ChatGPT位居榜首。
ChatGPT is at the top.
我认为明年或后年它仍会位居榜首。
I think it's on the top next year or the year after that.
这是个有趣的问题。
That is an interesting question.
我也这么认为。
I think so.
我认为，它们免费的策略将使它们在人工智能进一步扩展到发展中国家时，捕获更多的全球市场。
I think that their strategy of being free will allow them to capture more of the global market as AI starts to expand further into developing countries.
但老实说，我预计Gemini、Claude和其他模型会继续在各自的使用场景中增长。
But honestly, I would expect to see Gemini and Claude and others continue to grow for their use cases.
我只是可能会对它们像ChatGPT那样成为主流感到惊讶。
I just would be maybe surprised if they ended up as mainstream as something like a ChatGPT.
因此，它们可能会通过订阅和其他方式盈利，而ChatGPT则依靠广告。
And so they'll probably monetize through subscriptions and other things whereas ChatGPT has ads.
今年没有出现在列表上、但明年会出现的是什么类型的应用？
What type of app is not on there this year that will be on there next year?
会有更多具备代理功能的产品。
There's gonna be lots more agentic products.
所以OpenClaw本该上榜的。
So OpenClaw would have made it.
是的。
Mhmm.
我认为我们会看到更多智能体产品出现在移动设备上。
I think we're gonna see a lot more agentic products on mobile.
比如一种你可以打电话、发短信、聊天并让它真正为你做事的AI，这种体验对很多人来说非常神奇。
Like the concept of an AI that you can like call, text, chat with and have it actually do things for you, think is a really magical experience for a lot of people.
另一个我正在思考的问题是，关于我们如何改进这份榜单的方法论：越来越多的AI不再局限于浏览器或应用程序，而是成为桌面产品，或者是一种完全原生的AI浏览器，比如Comet或Atlas之类的，但这些数据并没有捕捉到这一点。
The other thing that I'm thinking about and this is on us to evolve the methodology of the list is like increasingly AI is not in, the browser or on an app, it is like a desktop product, or it's an it's an completely AI native browser like a Comet or an Atlas or something like that and this data doesn't capture that.
我想到的桌面产品有Cursor、Claude Cowork、Whisper Flow、Granola等，这些产品在当前的数据中都没有被涵盖，因此我们必须调整方法论，更多地关注收入而非单纯的网页流量，这将揭示出一大批全新的有趣公司。
The desktop products I'm thinking of are like Cursor, Claude Cowork, Whisper Flow, Granola, like none of these are really captured in this data and so we're gonna have to evolve our methodology into looking more at revenue than just kind of web traffic which I think will surface a whole new group of interesting companies.
好的，Olivia。
Alright, Olivia.
非常感谢你来参加这个节目。
Thank you so much for coming on the show.
很高兴和你交谈。
Great to speak with you.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
非常感谢大家的收听和观看，我们下次再见，欢迎收听《大播客》。
Thank you so much for listening and watching, and we'll see you next time on Big Podcast.
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