Big Technology Podcast - Anthropic 实验室负责人探讨 Fable 的能力与构建 AI 原生产品——专访迈克·克里格 封面

Anthropic 实验室负责人探讨 Fable 的能力与构建 AI 原生产品——专访迈克·克里格

Anthropic's Labs Lead On Fable's Capabilities + Building AI-Native Products — With Mike Krieger

本集简介

迈克·克里格(Mike Krieger)是 Anthropic Labs 的负责人兼 Instagram 联合创始人。克里格现身“大科技播客”(Big Technology Podcast),从“大科技 AI 峰会”现场连线,探讨 Anthropic 内部的情况:就在本周,政府迫使该公司将其前沿模型 Fable 和 Mythos 下架。请收听克里格讲述与 Fable 合作如何改变了他的工作模式——睡前启动一整晚的任务,醒来发现一小时便已完成;他为何坚持认为 Anthropic 的安全警示是实质性的而非营销手段;以及 Anthropic 如何在作为平台与产品双重身份的同时,与在其之上构建产品的公司展开竞争。《连线》杂志资深记者劳伦·古德(Lauren Goode)作为联合采访人加入。点击播放,透过 Anthropic 下一代爆款产品的构建者,罕见地深入了解实验室内部。 --- AI Agent 纪录片:https://www.gravitee.io/ai-agent-documentary 喜欢“大科技播客”吗?请在您选择的播客应用中为我们打出五星 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐。 想在 Substack 和 Discord 上获得“大科技”折扣?首年可享 25% 优惠:https://www.bigtechnology.com/subscribe?coupon=0843016b 了解更多关于您的广告选择。请访问 megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Speaker 0

Anthropic 不只是在做大型模型,它在产品开发上也同样强大。

Anthropic is not just a massive model builder, it's a massive product builder as well.

Speaker 0

像 Cloud Code 和 Cowork 这样的产品,最近几个月简直火得不行。

Products like Cloud Code and Cowork that have taken off like crazy over the past few months.

Speaker 0

Cloud Code 是从一个很少人了解的地方冒出来的,叫 Anthropic Labs。

Cloud Code came out of a place that few of us know much about called Anthropic Labs.

Speaker 0

Anthropic Labs 是 Anthropic 内部的一个团队,专注于以 AI 为核心打造下一代前沿产品。

And Anthropic Labs is a organization within Anthropic that is working on building the next level of frontier products with AI at the center.

Speaker 0

今天,我们很幸运请到了这个实验室的负责人——Mike Krieger,他是 Instagram 的联合创始人,现在担任 Anthropic Labs 的负责人。

And so today we are lucky to hear from the person running that lab, Mike Krieger, is the cofounder of Instagram and now the lead of of Anthropic Labs at Anthropic.

Speaker 0

接下来,我们会请他上台,和《连线》杂志的 Lauren Goode 一起,和我共同进行这场对话。

We're gonna welcome him on stage along with Lauren Goode of Wired who will join me as a co interview.

Speaker 0

Mike 和 Lauren,让我们为两位鼓掌欢迎。

Mike and Lauren, let's let's let's hear it for both of you guys.

Speaker 1

你好。

Hey.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

你来了。

You're here.

Speaker 1

很好。

Great.

Speaker 0

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Speaker 2

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 0

好的,迈克。

Alright, Mike.

Speaker 0

所以现在在Anthropic这边挺清闲的。

So chill times in Anthropic Land.

Speaker 0

没什么事发生。

Nothing going on.

Speaker 2

这周挺慢的。

Slow week.

Speaker 2

这周挺慢的。

Slow week.

Speaker 0

劳伦,你来开头吧?

You want to start, Lauren?

Speaker 2

好。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

首先,我们想聊聊你在实验室负责的工作,跟大家说说你的角色。

First of all, I mean, we want to talk about what you're working on at labs and explain your role to folks.

Speaker 2

不过我想先问你一下,你现在跟白宫那边的联系有多紧密?

But I want to ask you first, how close are you right now to the situation with the White House?

Speaker 1

比我在之前职位时要少多了。

Less than in my role.

Speaker 1

我大概五个月前转到了现在的实验室岗位。

So I transitioned about like five months ago into this labs role.

Speaker 1

要是还在那个位置上,我肯定深度参与其中。

I think in the role, I think would have been deep in it.

Speaker 1

现在嘛,说白了,我们当然希望把事情重新推起来。

Now I'm more, you know, obviously, you know, we wanna restore it.

Speaker 1

作为产品负责人,我得确保相关资源能到位,但跟以前当高管时比,离核心远多了。

And and as a, like, product person, I wanna make sure that that gets access, but less close to it than, you know, in that sort of c level role that I had before.

Speaker 2

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 2

亚历克斯,你有后续问题吗?

Alex, you have a follow-up?

Speaker 0

哦,我确实有

Oh, I have

Speaker 2

足足八个呢。

like eight follow ups.

Speaker 0

当然有。

Definitely.

Speaker 0

有个叫本的人在X平台上说,只要Anthropic重新为我开启Fable功能,他就寄一份原始的长格式出生证明给我们。

Well, we there was a guy named Ben on x who said, I will mail Anthropic an original copy of my long form birth certificate if they will enable Fable for me again.

Speaker 0

我听起来就像那些痴迷于Four O的人一样疯狂。

I sound like those lunatics who were obsessed with four o now.

Speaker 0

你会接受本的那份长格式证明吗?

Will you take Ben's long form?

Speaker 1

我不确定我们会收他的证明,但这件事确实挺有意思的。

I don't know that we'll take his long form, but it has been interesting.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,Fable 只上线了几天,但自从那以后,我每发一条推文,他们都没看我具体在说什么,反而大部分都在喊‘把 Fable 带回来’,就像 Instagram 当年取消 Gotham 滤镜一样。

I mean, Fable was only available for a few days, but definitely every time I've tweeted since then, they have not read whatever I was tweeting, they've mostly been, like, bring back Fable, which, like, in Instagram, we got rid of Gotham.

Speaker 1

你还记得那个 Gotham 滤镜吗?

Do you remember Gotham, the filter?

Speaker 1

之后整整八年,我听到的全是‘把 Gotham 带回来’。

This is like and then for the rest, like, the next eight years, all I heard was bring back Gotham.

Speaker 1

所以我们都没想到,Fable 居然比 Gotham 还早回来。

So it struck in our but Fable will come will back before Gotham did.

Speaker 1

不过,确实那些用过它、并把它融入日常的人,感受很不一样。

But, yeah, it's it's clearly, the folks that have gotten to use it and started incorporating it.

Speaker 1

这其实挺有意思的。

It's actually really interesting.

Speaker 1

我现在已经不敢轻信模型刚上线那天,或者第一周的反馈了。

I've learned to not really trust day of or even week of model reactions.

Speaker 1

你得真正让它经受住实际使用的考验,才能知道它到底怎么样。

Like, you don't really know until you've put it through its paces.

Speaker 1

所以在新模型刚发布头几天,我几乎会主动屏蔽所有噪音,因为每个人都会拿自己那套小把戏去试新模型,但真正考验它好不好用,还得靠实际工作场景。

And so, like, I almost just completely block out the noise in the first couple of days of any new model release because, I don't know, everybody has maybe their, like, toy, like, example thing that they like to do with the new model, but it's hard to actually put it through its paces until you've actually had real work done with it.

Speaker 1

我觉得大家这才刚开始真正用起来,结果我们就不得不把Fable撤回来了。

And I think people were just starting to do that, and then, you know, we had to sort of pull back Fable.

Speaker 1

我记得去年十二月发布Opus 46的时候,正好赶上圣诞节假期,很多人都回家了,圣诞节到新年之间有一周空闲。

But I remember in December when we put out Opus four six, it was, like, this interesting time where everybody went home for the holidays, and a lot of people had that week off between Christmas and New Year's.

Speaker 1

等他们回来后都说:‘我那几天花了不少时间用它,现在终于明白Opus为什么厉害了,我决定长期用下去。’

And then they came back and were like, oh, I spent a lot of time, and I really get why Opus is good, and I'm gonna do it.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得Fable还没来得及经历这样的过程。

So I don't think Fable has had that opportunity yet.

Speaker 2

但即便如此,特朗普政府那边的反应还是相当强烈的。

But despite that, though, I mean, this was a pretty big reaction from the Trump administration.

Speaker 2

我相信在座各位,尤其是听过亚历克斯·斯塔莫斯那场对话的人,都清楚背后发生了什么。

And I think everyone here, especially if you were listening to the Alex Stamos session, understands what's going on.

Speaker 2

但这一切都是在模型发布后短短几天内发生的。

But this happened within a few days of the model release.

Speaker 2

如果要给《连线》杂志一点肯定的话,他们昨晚刚报道说,这件事是因为Anthropic向一家电信公司开放了模型访问权限,这才引起了政府方面的警觉。

If I can give Wired some credit, Wired just reported last night that it was due to Anthropic's relationship with their having giving access to the model to ask a telecom that could have raised flags within the administration.

Speaker 2

你对这种 backlash 来得这么快感到意外吗?

How surprised were you by how immediate that that backlash was?

Speaker 1

是的,我觉得这种迅速做出反应的决定确实出人意料。

Yeah, I think the sort of reaction decision was surprising.

Speaker 1

真的挺意外的。

Surprising.

Speaker 1

我们当时也立刻跟他们联系,试图尽快恢复访问权限。

And And we when were sort of immediately engaged with them to, you know, restore access as well.

Speaker 1

同时,我们内部经常讨论的一件事是,以前Facebook墙上贴过一张海报,上面写着‘每一天都像过了一周’。

And so at the same time, you know, the one thing that we think a lot about internally is, you know, there used to be a poster on the Facebook wall when we were saying that was, like, every day feels like a week.

Speaker 1

我觉得现在在AI领域,这句话正变得越来越真实,整个行业都该时刻提醒自己:我们正处在前所未有的时代。

And I think that's becoming true in AI, and I think a good thing to remind ourselves of in general in the industry is we're dealing with unprecedented times.

Speaker 1

我们面对的都是全新的情况,而且它们的发展速度可能快得惊人。

We're dealing with new situations, and they can develop really quickly as well.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得,提升能力、建立联系,确保这些对话能迅速展开,真的非常重要。

And so I think also developing the capabilities and the connections and and to make sure those conversations can happen quickly is really, really important.

Speaker 2

我有个新标语建议,可以贴在墙上。

I have a new motto suggestion for you for the wall.

Speaker 2

往前挪一挪。

Move that.

Speaker 2

快点,绕过限制。

Fast and jailbreak things.

Speaker 1

我觉得他们不会这么做。

I don't think they're going to

Speaker 0

别用这个,Lauren。

use that Lauren.

Speaker 0

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

我们刚从Alex那里得知,有些能力其实早在之前的模型上就存在了,或者现在也能在其他模型上找到漏洞。

We just heard from Alex that some of these capabilities have been available on previous models or can can find bugs with other with other models that are available today.

Speaker 0

那你觉得为什么Anthropic在这一点上被特别挑出来?

So why do you think Anthropic got singled out on this front?

Speaker 1

我不清楚为什么是Fable,毕竟Fable本身也是一个非恶意意图的模型。

I don't know why, like Fable specifically, it was singled out as, you know, again, Fable being the non cyber intention model as well.

Speaker 1

我觉得随着时间推移,真正变化的是:如果你知道该怎么提问、知道自己在找什么,能力就会不一样。

I think that the thing that does change over time is there's, you know, the capabilities if you knew what to prompt and knew what you're looking for, and then there's the capabilities.

Speaker 1

我不太认同Alex说的那种‘榨取高中运动员’的比喻,但确实,我们特别关注模型带来的提升效果,尤其是在安全方面。

Think, you know, I'm not sure I resonate with the, like, juicing high school athletes metaphor from Alex, but, like, you know, the the uplift that you get like, uplift is a thing that we think about a lot when we think about model safety.

Speaker 1

比如看我们的模型卡片,评估生物领域风险时,我们会对比普通人用模型和普通人只用互联网的差异,看看提升有多大。

So if you look at our model cards, for example, one of the ways that we look at risk in the bio domain is comparing the uplift from sort of lay a lay person using the model versus, you know, an expert or a lay person just using the Internet and and seeing what the comparison there is.

Speaker 1

这种趋势随着模型能力增强一直在持续发展。

And so that is one trend that is you know, has been, you know, progressing as the models get more capable.

Speaker 1

所以与其纠结为什么Fable被单独拎出来,不如看看整体的发展方向。

And so maybe less why Fable is singled out and maybe more like what the overall trajectory is.

Speaker 0

有意思。

Interesting.

Speaker 0

我们刚请了Ramp公司的首席经济学家卡拉齐安来播客做客。

So we just had our Karazian, the lead economist on ramp on the podcast.

Speaker 0

他提到一件挺有意思的事:五角大楼事件期间,媒体都在报‘某公司不再使用Anthropic’,但Ramp的实际数据显示,他们对Anthropic模型的支出反而增加了。

And one of the interesting things that he said was, know we had during the Pentagon situation, there were these headlines, okay this company will not use Anthropic anymore, but actually the data from Ramp shows that spending actually increased to Anthropic models.

Speaker 0

这事儿对Anthropic来说,反倒成了个不错的公关机会。

It was apparently a good publicity moment for the company.

Speaker 0

这其实也印证了我们节目里常讨论的一个问题:到底有多少是真正对问题的担忧,又有多少是Anthropic的营销操作?

So I think it sort of plays into a debate that we have like here on the show about like how much of this is like real concern for the issues and how much of it is from Anthropic is marketing.

Speaker 0

今天我们请来了Anthropic的人,正好能帮我们澄清这一点。

And like we have somebody from Anthropic here who can actually shed some light on that.

Speaker 0

之前斯塔莫斯从安全角度谈了一些,但我们今天能请到你,真是很幸运。

We just said, Stamos talking a little bit about it from his perspective on the security side, but we're lucky to have you here today.

Speaker 0

所以,这到底是实质性的变化,还是纯粹的营销,或者两者兼有?

So so is it material or is it marketing or some combination?

Speaker 0

我的意思是,

I mean,

Speaker 1

我觉得最难的,就是真正相信一件事是真实的,而不是营销手段。

I think it is one of the hardest things to like really deeply believe that something is true and not marketing.

Speaker 1

不只是Anthropic,我觉得大家对任何公司说的话保持怀疑都是对的,你也应该用自己的判断去过滤这些信息。

And then due to not even just Anthropic, I think like, you know, I think people are generally right to be skeptical of any company saying anything, and you should, like, put it through your own filters as well.

Speaker 1

但对我个人来说,我总是觉得:不是这样的。

But for me personally, I'm always like, no.

Speaker 1

但这是真的。

But it's real.

Speaker 1

我们真的非常重视安全,而且我们公开谈论这些事,只是为了帮助大家看清未来很可能发生什么、我们已经看到或发现的趋势。

And, like, we, like, both deeply care about safety and are, like to the extent that we are being vocal about anything, is to either sort of help paint the picture of what very likely is coming or we believe is coming or what we've already seen and spotted.

Speaker 1

比如在Mythos项目里,我们主要做的是漏洞扫描和漏洞发现,而且是和那些参与过Project Glasswing初期公告的公司合作进行的。

You know, for example, in the in the Mythos case, really just looking at, like, vulnerability scanning and bug finding and doing it in partnership with with companies that were in that kind of Project Glasswing initial announcement.

Speaker 1

这项技术真的很厉害,不是那种空洞的吹嘘。

And so the technology is awesome, not in the okay.

Speaker 1

它确实在做着令人惊叹的事,所以当我们指出正在发生的事情时,听起来可能有点夸大其词。

Like, in the just you know, it is it is doing really incredible things, and therefore, even calling out what we see as what is happening, I think, can seem hype y.

Speaker 1

真希望我能按个按钮,让所有人都相信我们真的没在吹牛。

I wish I could press a button and was and, like, I could make everybody believe that we are not being hype y.

Speaker 1

我明白现实没那么简单,但至少从我的角度看,我们一直力求实事求是。

I realize that's not the reality that we operate in, but at least from my perspective, we try to call it like it is.

Speaker 2

我了解到,特别是在Anthropic的实验室和研发部门,你们是用最先进的AI模型来实际开发新产品、做原型并验证你们的假设。

My understanding is that within labs in particular and research and development at Anthropic that you're using the best AI models to actually build new products, to prototype new products and sort of test out your thesis.

Speaker 2

那这个禁令现在是不是在很大程度上限制了你们在实验室里的这些工作?

So is this is this is this ban essentially now limiting your ability to do that within labs?

Speaker 1

是的,说实话,Fable是我用过最好的模型。

Yeah, I mean, definitely Fable is the best model I've ever used.

Speaker 1

这并不是说工作完全停了,但确实比不上那些其他模型的效果。

And it's not to say that, like, work has stopped, but it's definitely like less good than the other models that that are.

Speaker 1

我们也在用比它差一些的模型。

We are using models that are less good than that as well.

Speaker 1

而且说实话,可能正相反——就像第一周那种不信任的反应,恰恰就是没有Fable时会发生的情况。

And it is also I mean, maybe the reverse of the distrusting the first week, you know, response is what happens when you don't have Fable.

Speaker 1

而且很明显,那些早就开始用这个模型的人,对Twitter上的反应特别强烈。

And, like, obviously, the Twitter reaction for the people that had already kind of, like, gotten into the model and and were using it was strong.

Speaker 1

但就我个人使用来说,我现在用的是Opus 48,感觉也还不错。

But I'd say even in my personal use, I'm like, oh, like, I'm on Opus four eight, and it's good.

Speaker 1

我照样能高效工作。

Like, I'm still productive.

Speaker 1

我确实在干活,至于具体工作方式因为Fable或者类似模型的变化有多大,我们回头可以细聊,但差别确实很明显。

I'm doing work, but and we can go into sort of, like, how my work changed with sort of these, Fable or, like, you know, the models of that sort of family, but it is noticeable for sure.

Speaker 0

是的,我们也挺想了解这些的。

Yeah, I think we'd like to know that.

Speaker 0

说真的,公众接触Fable的时间连半分钟都不到。

Mean, the public had access to Fable for like a half a minute.

Speaker 0

像Project Glasswing这样的团队,倒是能用上Mythos。

Groups in this like Project Glasswing have had access to Mythos.

Speaker 0

我们其实不太清楚,今天能用的模型和那些顶尖的Anthropic模型之间,到底差在哪。

We don't really know what the difference is between using a model that you can use today is and using one of these, you know, super anthropic models.

Speaker 1

是的

Yeah.

Speaker 0

那么,使用 Fable 或 Mythos 究竟能让你做些什么不一样的事呢?

So what actually could you do differently with a fable or a mythos?

Speaker 1

对我来说,关键在于任务分配的范围和规模。

I think for me, it's the sort of scope and scale of delegation.

Speaker 1

但这些工具都还很不完善。

And all these things are really imperfect.

Speaker 1

比如,人们总会问,这现在算不算一个五级或六级的软件工程师?

Like, you know, people will say, like, oh, is this now a level five software engineer or a level six?

Speaker 1

但任何用过这些模型的人都知道,它们的能力依然很不稳定。

But anybody who's used these models extensively knows that they're still spiky in capabilities.

Speaker 1

能力,对吧?

Capabilities, Right?

Speaker 1

没错。

Right?

Speaker 1

在某些方面,它们的工程能力其实比我强多了。

In In some some ways, ways they're, they're, you you know, know, in in many many ways they're a better engineer than me.

Speaker 1

但另一方面,比如今天我就在抱怨,它居然没把字母G的下延部分显示全,那个叫下延部。

And in other ways, like, you know, I was complaining today that it had missed a descender like the G, that bottom part is called the descender.

Speaker 1

我心想,你们是怎么设计这个界面的,怎么把字给截断了?

I'm like, how did you put that in the UI and it's clipped?

Speaker 1

当然了,视觉识别、调试能力,还有那种基本的人类常识,这些方面我们人类还是远胜过现在的模型。

And of course, like there's vision capabilities I need to improve and there's debugging capabilities and there's sometimes even just sort of human common sense that is, you know, we're way better at than when the models are.

Speaker 1

但总的来说,我觉得我工作方式最大的转变,其实挺有意思的,正好跟我重新回到一线开发角色的时间吻合。

But overall, I think the big shift for me working and it's really interesting because it sort of coincided with me going back into a builder role.

Speaker 1

所以我亲眼见证了,从以前作为高管使用这些模型,到现在亲自上手开发。

So I really got to see going from, you know, using these models as an executive.

Speaker 1

当高管的时候,你只能尽量利用它们,但不可能指望它们帮你把每封邮件都写得完美。

You're trying to do the most of them, but, you know, like, not gonna have it right all your email.

Speaker 1

我觉得战略方向还是得你自己定,模型的作用是帮你验证和打磨这些想法。

And, you know, I think strategy still needs to come from you, and then you can use the models to sort of pressure test it.

Speaker 1

不过回到开发者的角色,从之前的状态转变过来,是这样的。

But going back into a builder role and going from, okay.

Speaker 1

以前我会把任务分块委派出去,比如‘请修一下这个bug’,或者‘我在考虑实现这个功能’。

I am delegating chunks like, please fix this bug, or I'm thinking of implementing this feature.

Speaker 1

现在我们会来回沟通,最终变成更直接的方式,比如‘我收到了用户的一个bug反馈’,或者‘我有一个想做的东西的想法’。

Let's go back and forth to something that ends up being much more sort of, all right, like, I got this bug report from one of our users, or I have this notion of something that I want to build.

Speaker 1

比如,‘你能构思出两三种实现方案吗?’

Like, can you sketch out two or three ways in which we could do it?

Speaker 1

对。

Right.

Speaker 1

听起来挺合理的。

Like, that seems plausible.

Speaker 1

其实我觉得这样挺好的。

Often, I find actually it's nice.

Speaker 1

它会给我一些解释或者方案,然后我就说,行吧。

It'll give me the the sort of explanation or proposal and be like, okay.

Speaker 1

这确实超出了我的能力范围。

That actually is over my head.

Speaker 1

你明显比我聪明多了,能不能给我讲讲,别当我是五岁小孩,但至少别用你那种方式讲,有时候你这么一讲,我就懂了。

Like, you are clearly way smarter than me, like, explain it to me like I'm maybe not five, but at least, you know, not you, and it'll sometimes, you know, explain it that way.

Speaker 1

然后你就去把它做出来,而且做得特别准,效率高得惊人。

But then go build it and get it right, getting it right, like, you know, at a very, very, very high rate.

Speaker 1

我觉得这真的会彻底改变你的工作方式。

And I think that starts really changing how you operate.

Speaker 1

比如我睡前会先确保给Fable安排好足够多的、能撑一整晚的任务。

Like, I moved much more to before going to bed, making sure that I had, like, queued up for Fable, like, enough chunky work to last.

Speaker 1

我会整晚都让它跑着,第二天再检查,结果它一小时就搞定了,然后就闲着等我接下来七个小时再吩咐。

I would call it the whole night, and I would check-in later and it got it done in an hour, and it was, like, the guest hanging out for the next seven hours.

Speaker 1

但关键是,把任务分派出去,这已经不只是手段,而成了目标。

But, like, really, like, delegating, like, much more of a goal than just a

Speaker 0

比如说,一个具体任务。

So one one task, for example.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

比如,举个你交给他做的具体任务?

Like, give us an example of one task you would hand

Speaker 1

来吧。

to it.

Speaker 1

我举个有点夸张的例子,对程序员来说——我们有个实验室项目是用 Python 写的。

I mean, here's a kind of crazy one, which is for the programmers in the audience, like, I I had written one of our labs projects in in Python.

Speaker 1

那是我最熟的语言,而 Instagram 当时全用 Python。

That's like the language I know while Instagram was all Python.

Speaker 1

但因为一些不太重要的原因,我们最终得把它改成 TypeScript 才能上线。

And for, like, some not super exciting reasons, we actually needed it to be in TypeScript to deploy it.

Speaker 1

我当时就想,行吧。

And I was like, alright.

Speaker 1

在 Instagram,我们好几年都在讨论要不要从 Python 换成 PHP,或者 Hack,就是 Facebook 被收购后用的那个语言。

That's gonna be, like, you know, in Instagram, we, for years, talked about moving from Python to PHP or hack or the the Facebook language after the acquisition.

Speaker 1

但在我待那会儿,从来没实现过。

And then at least when I was there, never did.

Speaker 1

不过我们有个功能叫动态工作流,可以把任务拆分成很多子任务。

But I basically like, we have a feature called dynamic workflows where you can have it, like, also break down the task into, like, a lot of subtasks.

Speaker 1

我不只是让它完成单个操作,而是直接处理了数百万行、几十万行代码的整个语言转换。

And I trusted it to sort of not just do the individual action, but here's, like, a whole language conversion of millions of by hundreds of thousands of lines of code at that point.

Speaker 1

去干吧。

Go off and do it.

Speaker 1

去规划吧。

Go plan it.

Speaker 1

去执行吧。

Go execute it.

Speaker 1

去检查成果,再复查一遍。

Go verify the work, double verify the work.

Speaker 1

等我再回来时,工作已经完成了。

And then I came back to the work being complete.

Speaker 1

所以这个任务规模挺大的,属于那种比较复杂的块。

So that level of like, this is a big sort of chunky task.

Speaker 2

所以你的意思是,这样更快了?

So that was so you're basically saying it was faster.

Speaker 2

一个小时就完成了?

Did it in an hour?

Speaker 2

你这是在拿Fable和以前的情况做比较,纯属猜测吧。

You're you're guessing compared to with Fable compared to what it would it have been before.

Speaker 1

我觉得主要区别在于,过去做完就完了,觉得搞定就行了。

I think the main difference is in the past, you would it would be like, great, I did it.

Speaker 1

但你其实心里清楚,是不是偷了懒?是不是哪里没做好?得再去核对一下,或者你干脆省了某个步骤。

And you'd like, did you you kind of took a shortcut here or this is not quite right or I need to go verify it or like, Oh, you cut this corner or

Speaker 2

这就跟过去一年大家总在说的‘管实习生’那套说法一模一样。

it's like the managing interns thing that everyone's been saying for the past year.

Speaker 2

确实如此,不过这么说对实习生其实挺不尊重的。

Yeah, it's which is very offensive to interns, by the way.

Speaker 2

没错,就是这样。

But yes, yeah, exactly.

Speaker 2

正是如此。

Exactly.

Speaker 0

我不确定你有没有带过实习生。

I don't know if you managed an intern.

Speaker 2

说得对。

Yes, true.

Speaker 2

你意思是说,结果更准确了。

And it was in you're saying it was more correct.

Speaker 2

确实是。

It was.

Speaker 2

所以速度更快了。

So it's faster.

Speaker 2

更准确,也更可靠。

It's more accurate, more reliable.

Speaker 2

然后,根据美国政府的说法,这是危险的。

And then according to the U.

Speaker 2

美国。

S.

Speaker 2

政府,危险。

Administration, dangerous.

Speaker 1

我觉得另一部分,用词可能不太准确,但大致意思是项目理论,这样就不会说,哦,我要做个改动,然后就会说,好,我改。

I think the other piece of it has like a greater of mind is the wrong word, but sort of like theory of project so that it's less, you know, oh, I'm going to make this change and it'll say, great, I'll make this change.

Speaker 1

不过说真的,特别是如果你有过大规模软件工程的经验,最好的工程师会考虑到系统各个不同部分之间的关联,而且他们能预见未来:我知道可以做这个改动,但如果不用这种方式来做,那接下来的改动就会越来越难。

But really, especially if you've done like software engineering at scale, the best engineers kind of keep in mind all of the disparate parts of how this things and they also see around the corner is like, I can make this change, but if I don't do it in this way, then the next change is going to be incrementally harder.

Speaker 1

我觉得这就是我在这一类模型中看到的显著差异。

And I think that's like been a significant difference I've seen in that kind of class of models.

Speaker 1

所以

So

Speaker 2

说到 Anthropic Labs,大家首先想到的肯定是 Claude Code,毕竟它是你们最出圈的产品。

think when we talk about Anthropic Labs, right, people think of Claude code because it is really your breakout product.

Speaker 2

听起来你被委派的任务,就是找出下一个Claude Code该是什么样子。

And and it sounds like you've been tasked with basically figuring out what the next Claude code is.

Speaker 2

你觉得这个说法准确描述了你在实验室的工作吗?

Would you say that's an accurate description of what you're doing at labs?

Speaker 2

而且,Anthropic为什么需要设立实验室?

And also, why does Anthropic need labs?

Speaker 1

实验室?

Labs?

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

也许值得想一想,2024年我刚来的时候,为什么需要实验室,而今天为什么还需要它,因为我觉得答案其实已经变了。

It's also maybe worth thinking about why we needed labs in 2024 when I arrived and why we need labs today, because I think that the answer kind of shifts.

Speaker 1

我刚到Anthropic第三周,就和联合创始人本·曼一起组建了最初的实验室团队,这其实是我早就想推动的事。

I started the labs, the original labs team with Ben Mann, who's one of the cofounders of Anthropic in my third week at Anthropic, and it had been something that I've been bubbling under.

Speaker 1

那时候的原因完全不一样。

And at the time, the reason was really different.

Speaker 1

当时我们的产品工程团队只有25个人,模型也没现在这么强。

It was all of our product engineering with team was 25 people, and we didn't have the models really like that.

Speaker 1

我加入的时候,Claude还只是Sonnet 3,就像你们现在说的Opus 3那样。

We had Claude that when I joined the sonnet three, like you've been Opus three.

Speaker 1

那些模型在当时算不错了,但根本算不上实习生的水平。

Like, those were for the time good models, but you weren't gonna they were not even interns.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

连IC3级别的工程师都算不上。

They weren't even IC three engineers.

Speaker 1

所以如果你团队只有二三十个工程师,他们只能盯着下一个小小的改进。

So if you have a team of only 25 or 30 engineers, they are working on like the next, you know, incremental thing.

Speaker 1

我们感觉模型确实在进步,但没什么产品能真正把这种进步展示出来。

And we were feeling like the models are starting to get better, but we don't have any products that sort of show that off.

Speaker 1

对我来说,一个很好的检验标准是,当我们准备发布一个模型时,有没有一个产品、演示,或者别的什么能清楚展示出完全不同的东西?

Like a good litmus test for me is when we get ready to release a model, do we have either a product or a demo or, you know, some other illustration of something that is very different?

Speaker 1

随着时间推移,这变得越来越难了,比如Fable,哪怕只是想清楚那个周末任务,或者这种需要长时间投入的工作,都不容易呈现出来。

And it gets harder over time, like, with with Fable, you know, even, like, illustrating, like, that weekend task or, you know, this longer amount of work.

Speaker 1

所以当时Labs的核心目标就是,别让我们的产品落后于模型飞速发展的步伐。

So, really, Labs at the time was, let's make sure we don't like, our products don't fall behind the model exponential that's happening.

Speaker 1

Claude Code就是从这个想法里诞生的,因为其他产品团队根本没人考虑过编程这件事,也没人有空间去想:如果我们彻底改变交互形式,完全接受模型会朝这个方向进化,会怎么样?

And, yeah, so Claude Code came out of that initial one because nobody in the rest of the product orgs people were thinking about coding, but nobody was sort of had the, like, space to go and think about, well, what if we totally change the form factor and we embrace the fact that the models were gonna evolve in this way?

Speaker 1

我们在Labs里最常用的两个思维练习之一,就是想象当前模型的能力和大多数人实际使用方式之间的差距。

And a lot of the like, the two most useful thought exercises we do in labs, one is, like, visualize the gap between what the models can do today and how most people use it.

Speaker 1

然后想办法缩小这个差距。

It can be closed that gap.

Speaker 1

这是第一个。

So that's one.

Speaker 1

另一个是,想想现在模型还做不好的事,但六个月后可能会做得很好,然后确保我们到时候已经有相应的产品准备好了。

And the other is, imagine what the models are bad at now that they're actually gonna be really good at in six months, and let's make sure we have a product ready for that by then.

Speaker 1

我觉得这两点就是实验室的核心指导原则。

And I think those are, like, the two guiding questions for for labs.

Speaker 1

从最初的版本里,还诞生了计算机操作功能。

And then also out of that first incarnation came computer use.

Speaker 1

不过计算机操作这个功能不一样,我们做出来的时候简直太糟糕了。

Computer use was different though because when we built it, it was really bad.

Speaker 1

我们试过好几个产品,那时候大概是Sonic 35左右。

Like, we tried a bunch of products with it, and this was around, you know, Sonic three five.

Speaker 1

用户会说:‘Claude,你能帮我整理一下桌面吗?’

And they're like, Claude, can you help me, you know, clean up my desktop?

Speaker 1

它就会点一下,直接把文件删了。

And it would, like, click the thing, just delete the file.

Speaker 1

这根本没法发布,太不安全了。

Like, this is not not safe for release.

Speaker 1

我们绝对不可能把它做出来或者推向市场。

We're definitely not gonna go and and and build this or to ship this.

Speaker 1

但我们保留了这个产品,每次推出新版本,都会先在内部测试,看看电脑辅助功能有没有改进。

But we had that product so that every new model that we'd we'd release, we'd first check it internally and say, did computer use get better?

Speaker 1

我们会把改进或退步的情况反馈给研究团队,直到觉得足够好为止。

And we'd tell the research team how it gotten better or worse until the moment where we it's good enough.

Speaker 1

我们真的打算在这个基础上推出一个正式产品。

We're actually going to put a product out around this.

Speaker 1

它还像一个标杆,帮我们衡量未来产品的进步方向。

It also gives you this sort of sort of beacon into the future that then you can kind of measure your your future products against.

Speaker 1

但也要拿它和现在的情况做对比。

But then compare it to now.

Speaker 1

我们现在有一个非常活跃的产品团队。

So we have a thriving product team.

Speaker 1

有CoWork,也有Claude Co.,都发展得不错。

There's co work, there's, you know, Claude Co.

Speaker 1

规模已经扩大了很多。

It has grown a lot.

Speaker 1

我们有自己的平台。

We have our platform.

Speaker 1

现在我觉得,这些产品团队其实已经不太会做这种思考了。

And now I think it's actually much, much less about none of these product teams are doing this sort of thinking.

Speaker 1

更重要的是,模型进步得太快了,我们与它们互动的方式也得跟着升级。

And I think it's much more that the models are advancing really quickly and even our capability to interact with them needs to evolve.

Speaker 1

所以我们和实验室、Cloud Code 合作,推出了今天上线的 Cloud Code 组件。

So one of the things we collaborated with Labs and Cloud Code that we ship today is Cloud Code artifacts.

Speaker 1

让 Cloud Code 不只是能打字回复你,还能画画、给你出图。

Having Cloud Code not just be able to type back to you, but also sort of draw a picture or give you an illustration.

Speaker 1

这个想法部分来自我们在实验室里花大量时间得出的结论:光靠一个文本框和一大段文字回复,已经不够用了。

And that partially came from spending a lot of time in labs saying, just a text box and a big text response is not gonna cut it anymore.

Speaker 1

就像我之前说的,模型和我聊天时,有时候我觉得它们比我聪明多了,这时候我就会想:你能给我画张图吗?

Like, when I mentioned that the models feel like they're way smarter than me when they talk to me, sometimes I'm like, can you draw me a picture?

Speaker 1

因为这才是我真正需要的,才能完全理解。

Because this is what I actually need to fully Yeah.

Speaker 1

完全理解这一点。

Fully understand this.

Speaker 1

但我们真正一直在想的是,没错,我们的产品确实多了不少。

But it's really what we've been thinking about is, you know, yes, we have a lot more products.

Speaker 1

实际上,我们的产品还有很多需要整合的地方。

You know, we have we are actually have a lot of consolidation to do in our products.

Speaker 1

这本身也是我们正在推进的另一个方向。

Like, that's another initiative that we have.

Speaker 1

但即便如此,我们依然有机会让那些不整天琢磨提示词、不纠结于高、中、低投入差异的人,也能更轻松地使用。

But within that, we still have the opportunity to make things much more accessible to a person that does not spend all of their time thinking about prompting and the exponential on the difference between high, low and medium effort.

Speaker 1

这里面能说的还有很多。

Like, there's a lot we can say.

Speaker 0

不过,迈克,使用Anthropic模型的用户现在其实处在一个挺特别的位置。

But but Mike, so there's a it's it puts people using Anthropic Models in an interesting place.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

你知道吗?Cursor 最近被 SpaceX 以六百亿美金收购了,有人在推特上发了个梗,说要是没有这个 guy,Cursor 本来能卖到三千亿,照片上的人就是 Claude Code 的创始人 Boris Cherni。

There know, Cursor I think just sold for 60,000,000,000 to SpaceX and someone put this meme on Twitter that like, you know, Cursor would have sold for 300,000,000,000 if it wasn't for this guy and it's a picture of Boris Cherni, the person who created Claude Code.

Speaker 0

对于那些打算基于 Anthropic 技术做产品的公司来说,他们肯定会犹豫:我到底是该和 Anthropic 合作,还是说 Anthropic 自己会直接推出我本来想做的那个产品,哪怕我已经和他们合作了?

And so for companies that are going to build on top of Anthropic technology, they're going to wonder, do I want to partner with Anthropic or is Anthropic going to go ahead and the product that I'm gonna wanna build, potentially even after partnering with them?

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我们更愿意聚焦在智能编码这个方向上,而同时扮演平台和产品双重角色,这个思路其实特别有意思。

I mean, we'll we'll take the, like, agentic coding side, and I think the broader sort of aspect of of, you know, being both a platform and a product, I think, is is really interesting.

Speaker 1

我们接项目的时候,目标通常是推动整个行业在这块往前走。

When we take on projects, the goal is often to sort of push that area of the industry forward.

Speaker 1

以前也有 AI 编辑器,有些做得不错,但没人像我们做 Cloud Code 时那样,这么自由地去思考这个问题。

So, you know, there were AI coding editors and some of them were really good and, you know, but nobody was quite thinking about it in as sort of freeform a way as we got to think about it with Cloud Code.

Speaker 1

现在,越来越多的产品都开始往这个方向走了,要不是我们,可能没这么快。

And now a lot more products have that flavor than I think would have otherwise.

Speaker 1

所以如果你觉得我说得不对,随时可以指出来,Alex。

And so I think if we're ever you can call me out on this, Alex.

Speaker 1

如果我们要进入一个行业,大家做的都是千篇一律的事,只是挂了个Anthropic的牌子,我觉得这纯粹是浪费我们的时间,也浪费了实验室或产品团队的精力。

Like, if we're ever entering an industry where, like, all you're doing is the same thing everybody else is doing, but, like, you've got the Anthropic brand, I feel like that's bad use of our time and a bad use of our either labs or product team time.

Speaker 1

如果我们真要进某个领域,那应该是为了说:嘿,我们觉得未来的发展方向是这样的。

Like, if we're going in somewhere, it should hopefully be to say, all right, we think that the direction of travel is this way.

Speaker 1

我们可以做出符合这个方向的产品。

We can build a product of that.

Speaker 1

而且,根本不可能也不应该出现所有产品都变成Anthropic自家产品的局面。

And then, by the way, there's no world nor should there be a world where, like, all the products are Anthropic products.

Speaker 1

那样的世界会很糟糕。

That'll be a bad world.

Speaker 1

没错。

Right.

Speaker 1

所以,我们希望要么为其他公司开辟出新的空间,要么指明方向,让别的产品也能借鉴融入。

So like that is hopefully either creating new space for for companies or sort of showing the way where other products can incorporate.

Speaker 2

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

这就有点像在一家同时做社交聊天、视频和后续功能的科技公司工作一样。

It would almost be like working for a tech company that has like social messaging, video, follow-up to.

Speaker 2

对吧,迈克?

Right, Mike?

Speaker 2

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 1

你确实离开了。

You did leave.

Speaker 2

比如,当Anthropic推出一款被看作与Figma竞争的产品时,而你之前曾任职于Figma的董事会,当时就有人提出疑问。

Well, there was some question, for example, when, you know, Anthropic launched a product that was seen as competitive to Figma and you had been on the Figma board prior to that.

Speaker 2

我想你后来退出了。

And I think you stepped down.

Speaker 1

是的。

Is Yeah.

Speaker 1

那

That

Speaker 2

所以亚历克斯提了个好问题,关于硅谷为什么能拥有如此健康、充满活力且敢于冒险的创业生态。

And so it's a good question that Alex has brought up, think, where Silicon Valley is known for this really healthy, vibrant, risk tolerant startup ecosystem.

Speaker 2

当大公司带着大量风险投资和丰富资源涌入时,人们就会担心:等等,他们是不是直接抄走我的点子?

And when the big start coming in with tons of venture capital and, you know, a lot of resources, people say, well, wait, are they just are they essentially just going to steal my idea?

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

不,我认为我们这种双重身份是其他公司也必须面对的。

No, I think I think our dual existence and it's something that other companies have to navigate.

Speaker 1

我们刚才在上一个环节聊了很多亚马逊,他们就得处理这种双重角色:既是基础设施提供方。

We talked talked about Amazon a lot in the in the previous panel, like they have to navigate this role where they are both the infrastructure provider.

Speaker 1

他们显然拥有庞大的电商业务。

They obviously have a very large e commerce.

Speaker 1

他们做视频,同时也分发视频。

They they do video, but they also serve video.

Speaker 1

总的来说,客户其实能适应这种双重角色——他们知道,自己在用对方的基础设施,而对方也在用同样的基础设施做自己的事。

And then, you know, by and large, customers can live in that dual world of like, Okay, I'm using their infrastructure, also knowing that they they are also using their infrastructure to do that.

Speaker 1

你可以去问问我们的客户,看看我们在这方面做得怎么样。

And I think the you can talk to our customers and see how well we're doing at this.

Speaker 1

我一直以来都尽量保持透明,这是我的原则。

Like, the thing I always try to do is, like, at least approach it with a lot of transparency.

Speaker 1

比如光标这个例子,我和迈克尔过去聊过很多次。

So the cursor example is an interesting one where, like, Michael and I talked a lot over the time around.

Speaker 1

我们一直在讨论事情的发展方向。

Here's where things are heading.

Speaker 1

同样地,对于我们其他产品的思考,我觉得有几点很重要。

And, you know, with similarly with with the other products that we think about, like, can we I think it's a couple of things.

Speaker 1

一是透明,二是共享的基础模块。

It's transparency, and then it's shared building blocks.

Speaker 1

说实话,我觉得根本就不存在这种情况。

Like, yeah, I think in general, I actually don't think there's any cases where this is even true.

Speaker 1

我们是在别人已有的能力基础上继续搭建东西。

Like, we're trying to build on top of the same capabilities that are available elsewhere.

Speaker 1

我上次在联邦俱乐部这个舞台上,是今年年初的医疗日,那时候我们还没推出Claude Healthcare。

The last time I was here in the Commonwealth Club on this stage was our health care day at the beginning of the year, and we didn't ship like Claude Healthcare.

Speaker 1

只有我们有这个功能,别人都没有。

Only we have it like nobody else has it.

Speaker 1

我们发布了一堆插件、技能、MCP,还有一些配套的能力。

We shipped a bunch of like plug ins and skills and MCP's and like complementary abilities.

Speaker 1

所以我说这事儿不简单,也不好说一清二楚,但这就是我们应对这个复杂局面的方式。

So that's how I'm not claiming it's easy or that it's a straightforward thing, but it is how we're trying to navigate what is, like, admittedly a complicated Right.

Speaker 1

有点复杂的情况。

Sort of situation.

Speaker 2

说到初创公司,Anthropic严格来说还是个初创公司,但你们已经值不少钱了。

Speaking of startups, Anthropic is still technically a startup, but you're worth a lot of money.

Speaker 2

我的意思是,现在估值是多少?

I mean, what what's the latest valuation?

Speaker 2

是多少?

Is it

Speaker 0

96.5亿。

$9.65.

Speaker 2

9650亿左右吧。

$965,000,000,000 or something like that.

Speaker 0

我当年把Instagram卖了一十亿。

I sold Instagram for a billion.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

初创公司。

Start up.

Speaker 1

在2010年。

In 2010.

Speaker 1

对。

Right.

Speaker 2

从那以后,财务状况已经发生了不小的变化。

Financials have changed quite bit since then.

Speaker 2

但Anthropic已经为自己定好了位置。

And yet, Anthropic has positioned itself.

Speaker 2

它是一家公益公司,一直把自己定位为在开发AI时更注重伦理的公司。

It is, you know, a PBC and it's positioned itself as sort of a more ethical company around building AI.

Speaker 2

我想知道,你如何看待这种定位,以及Anthropic在改变硅谷文化方面扮演的角色?

And I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about how you see that positioning and Anthropic's role in particular changing the culture of the Valley.

Speaker 2

就像我知道,回想起2000年代初,谷歌在很多方面彻底改变了硅谷的文化。

Like, I know I think back to how Google in the beginning of the 2000s really changed the culture of Silicon Valley in so many ways.

Speaker 2

你觉得现在Anthropic的文化,会如何塑造下一个时代?

And how do you see Anthropic's culture now dictating this next era?

Speaker 1

这是个很有意思的问题。

Yeah, that's a really interesting question.

Speaker 1

我先从内部说起吧,我觉得外部也有影响。

Maybe I'll start like inside, and I think there's an external component, too.

Speaker 1

我当初加入的原因,是因为我正准备结束我的第二家创业公司,当时我决定去一家前沿实验室工作,因为我已经开始用这些模型来写代码了——虽然它们那时候代码能力很差,但我看得出来,这已经是它们最差的状态了。

I think the reason I joined in the first place, so I was winding down my second start out and knew I wanted to go work at a frontier lab because I had started to use these models for coding, and they were bad at coding, but I could see that they were as bad as they were ever gonna be at coding.

Speaker 1

以后只会越来越好。

They were going to improve.

Speaker 1

那时候我已经开始基于这些 API 做开发了。

And I had started building on top of these APIs.

Speaker 1

我当时的创业项目叫 Artifact,主要是做 AI 驱动的新闻推荐。

So the startup I was doing was called Artifact, and we did sort of AI powered sort of news recommendations.

Speaker 1

她以前经常通过 Artifact 看 Big Technology 的内容。

And she read a lot of Big Technology via Artifact back in the day.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

我们后来加了一些功能。

Things we added.

Speaker 1

所以。

So.

Speaker 1

但没连网。

But not wired.

Speaker 1

不过说实话,你们的付费墙确实太严了。

But, you know, you guys had a really hard paywall, to be honest.

Speaker 1

这我能理解。

Fair enough.

Speaker 1

但我们不这么认为。

We didn't agree.

Speaker 2

我们是这么做的。

We do.

Speaker 2

你需要我给你订阅打折吗?

Do you need a discount on my subscription?

Speaker 2

我可以帮你申请一个。

I can get one for you.

Speaker 2

好的。

Okay.

展开剩余字幕(还有 265 条)
Speaker 1

这其实特别有意思。

It's actually really funny.

Speaker 1

就是谈合作这部分。

Like, the making deals.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

谈合作。

Making deals.

Speaker 1

其实就是登录时的cookie问题。

It's the it's the log in cookies.

Speaker 1

真的很难留住用户。

It's like really hard to keep people.

Speaker 1

明白。

Know.

Speaker 1

我知道。

I know.

Speaker 2

请把这个直接转给内容团队。

I just please escalate this to content.

Speaker 2

好的。

Yes.

Speaker 2

我明白。

I know.

Speaker 1

邮箱登录的内外部对接真的特别难搞。

And email logins very hard to do in and out.

Speaker 1

但我当时基于这些 API 做开发,才发现他们真能做出挺有意思的东西。

But so but I was building on top of the APIs and be like, wow, okay, they're they're able to do really interesting things.

Speaker 1

但最终让我决定去 Anthropic 的,是他们真的身体力行,发自内心地想让 AI 对人类有益。

But it ultimately made me go to Anthropic was like they walked the walk and they really, like, deeply believe in trying to make AI go well for humanity.

Speaker 1

这种理念已经渗透到公司每个角落,我觉得这也是为什么,尽管公司不断扩张,团队依然这么团结。

And is, like, in that's, like, in the water internally, and I think has been why I think the company has remained as cohesive as it has even as we've grown.

Speaker 1

我觉得这也反映出联合创始人们经常在谈这个问题。

And I think that it's, like, a testament also to the the cofounders there on how often they are talking about this as well.

Speaker 1

对我来说,这挺意外的,因为在Instagram的时候,我们每周开全员会,95%的时间都在聊产品。

It's a surprise for me coming from a world where at Instagram, we did a weekly all hands, and we talked about product 95% of the time.

Speaker 1

剩下5%的时间,才会顺便谈谈公司周围发生的一些其他事情。

And maybe 5% of the time, we talked about something else that was going on in the world around the company.

Speaker 1

可能我这话说得还保守了,其实更多是讲市场推广。

Probably, maybe underselling or, like, go to market.

Speaker 1

也许比例是八二开,但毫无疑问,重心完全在产品上。

Maybe it was, like, 8020, but it was definitely a very, very heavy product.

Speaker 1

我记得在Anthropic待了六个月左右,我和销售团队的负责人凯特·詹森一起开了场联合全员会,专门讲我们产品和市场推广是怎么协同的。

And I remember Anthropic about six months in, myself and Kate Jensen, who's one of the the leaders in the sales organization, did a joint all hands where we talked about our, like, you know, how we're doing product and go to market together.

Speaker 1

大家听了都说,这太棒了。

And people were like, this is so great.

Speaker 1

我终于搞清楚了我们的产品战略,以及我们之前到底在做什么。

I finally understand our product strategy and like what we have been doing.

Speaker 1

我当时就想,对啊,确实如此。

I was like, oh, right.

Speaker 1

这可不是什么所谓的‘产品公司’。

This is not, quote unquote, a product company.

Speaker 1

它是一家以使命为导向的AI公司,非常清楚自己为什么存在于这个世界。

You know, it is a very mission driven AI company with, like, a very strong sense of, like, why it exists in the world.

Speaker 1

至于它对硅谷整体的影响,现在还不好说。

I think in terms of the overall impact on the Valley, it remains to be seen.

Speaker 1

我看到的一些积极迹象,比如整个圈子重新燃起了对慈善的兴趣,这确实已经开始了。

I think the positive signs that I've seen or interesting signs of scenes that I've seen are, like, an renewed interest in philanthropy across the board, and I think that's something that has been about.

Speaker 1

我觉得这会带来一系列有趣的新动向。

And I think it will be an interesting sort of outflow.

Speaker 1

不过,这一切最终会怎样,谁也说不准。

Again, who knows how all of this goes?

Speaker 1

但不管结果如何,都可能催生大量新的慈善投入。

But, like, depending on how it goes, it could mean a lot of interesting new sort of philanthropic deployment.

Speaker 1

另外,关于AI该何去何从的讨论,现在正和这项技术同步进行,而不是事后才反思——这一点和以往的技术浪潮很不一样,我觉得这是好事。

And then I think the other piece is, you know, the conversation around how AI could or should go is one that is happening in real time with the technology versus retrospectively, which I think has been the case for other technology waves, I think that is a good thing.

Speaker 3

大家好。

Hi, everyone.

Speaker 3

我是亚历克斯·坎特罗维茨。

Alex Kantrowitz here.

Speaker 3

我想跟大家介绍一下,我与Gravity合作制作的一部纪录片,探讨AI代理的安全未来。

I wanna tell you about a documentary I've made with Gravity to explore the future of AI agent security.

Speaker 3

为了弄清楚我们是否真的准备好迎接自主代理,我采访了麻省理工学院的拉姆什·拉斯卡尔教授、前白宫首席信息官特蕾莎·佩顿、米其林集团首席数据与AI官阿姆比卡·拉贾戈帕尔,以及前阿里巴巴高管关珊。

To find out if we're truly ready for autonomous agents, I sat down with MIT professor Ramesh Raskar, former White House CIO Theresa Payton, Michelin's Group Chief Data and AI Officer Ambika Rajagopal, and Sharon Guy, a former executive at Alibaba.

Speaker 3

他们各自都对这个快速发展的领域提供了独特的见解。

They each offer unique insights into this evolving landscape.

Speaker 3

最后,我们还对话了Gravity的首席执行官罗里·布朗德尔,聊聊未来的方向。

We conclude with Rory Blundell, CEO of Gravity, to discuss the path forward.

Speaker 3

在Gravity的引领下,欢迎一起踏上这段探索之旅。

With Gravity leading the way, join us on this journey.

Speaker 3

完整纪录片可以在节目说明中的链接观看。

You can watch the full documentary at the link in the show notes.

Speaker 0

迈克,你之前提到过,Anthropic 发现模型的实际能力与当前大家开发的产品之间存在差距。

Mike, you talked a little bit about Anthropic has this gap that it sees between the capabilities of the models and where everybody is building products.

Speaker 0

而你们在实验室里做的,就是想走在前面,让大家看到 AI 现在能做什么,六个月后又能做什么。

And with labs, what you try to do is get ahead of that so you can show people what AI might be able to do now and six months from now.

Speaker 0

所以能不能跟我们详细说说?

So please tell us.

Speaker 0

你们现在具体在做些什么,进展到哪一步了?

Please tell us like what you're building, where

Speaker 2

把所有细节都讲出来。

tell us everything.

Speaker 1

好,开始吧。

Great.

Speaker 1

你有十三分钟的时间。

You have thirteen minutes.

Speaker 1

开始吧。

Go.

Speaker 1

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 1

团队的其他部分,其实都是我产品里的一段独白。

The rest of the team is the monologue in my product.

Speaker 1

我特别兴奋的有两个方向,我们最近一直在深入探索。

Think maybe two themes I'm really excited about that we've been exploring a lot.

Speaker 1

第一个是给Claude创造一个更有自主性、也更有自我认知的环境。

The first one is giving Claude an environment where where it it has has more agency and it also has more self knowledge.

Speaker 1

我得解释一下,因为这堆词听起来太AI术语了。

And I'm gonna unpack that because that's, like, a lot of AI words.

Speaker 1

我举个例子,说明我们现在在这方面做得有多差。

But I'll give you an example of where we are currently doing a bad job of this.

Speaker 1

比如你在一个Claude项目里新建了个文件,叫‘cloud’,你可能会觉得,不错嘛。

Like, if you are in a Claude project and you make a file with cloud, you're like, that's great.

Speaker 1

你能把它加到我们的项目里吗?

Can you add it to our project?

Speaker 1

云?不行。

Cloud will be, no.

Speaker 1

你得先下载文件,再拖进去。

You have to go download the file and go drag and drop into this thing.

Speaker 1

你是不是傻?

You're like, what?

Speaker 1

直到昨天,我对云设计和云代码也这么想——你在云代码里,觉得挺好。

Until yesterday, I would have said the same thing about cloud design and cloud code, where if you're in cloud code, you're like, cool.

Speaker 1

我要为这个东西做个设计。

Like, I need a design for this thing that we're building.

Speaker 1

你在云设计里做了个原型,想开始开发,就直接说,行。

Let's or you're cloud design and you make a mock up and you want to go build it, be like, cool.

Speaker 1

给你个压缩包。

Here's a zip file.

Speaker 1

你是不是傻?

And you're like, what?

Speaker 1

你知道,我觉得这其实体现了一点互操作性。

You know, and I think so that's a little bit of interoperability.

Speaker 1

但总的来说,如果你给Claude提供足够多关于它所处环境的信息,我其实跟一个API客户聊过,他们正在试验一件事——在代理循环运行时,直接给Claude一份他们源代码的安全版本,这样一旦出问题,效果简直天差地别,产品表现出来的能力也丰富得多。

But in general, this theme of giving if you give Claude a lot of notion of its environment, I was talking to actually a a customer, like an API customer, and one of the things that they were experimenting with is actually even giving Claude, like, a secure version of their source code while it's running in the agent loop in their product so that if it hits an issue, but it's actually night and day in terms of how expressive these products end up being able to be.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

你甚至能从普通的聊天界面,比如Cloud AI里的经典聊天,看到它和CoWork这类更有主动权、有运行时环境、能稍微理解自身上下文的工具之间的差距。

And you can even see it going from, like, maybe, like, core chat or classic chat in Cloud AI and something like CoWork where it's got a little bit more agency and it has a runtime, and it's able to sort of, like, understand a little bit about its environment.

Speaker 1

但我认为,我们现在才走了整个旅程的10%左右。

But I think we are at, like, 10% of the journey about where we we could go.

Speaker 1

其实,我觉得人们之所以对OpenClot这类工具感到兴奋,是因为看到了一种可以修改、能和它讨论各种事情的系统。

Actually, one of the reasons I think people got excited about things like OpenClot is seeing how a, you know, harness that is modifiable, and you can talk to it about things.

Speaker 1

你从来不会觉得它说:‘抱歉,这个我做不到。’

And you don't ever get the sense of, like, oh, sorry.

Speaker 1

它不会跟你说‘我办不到’。

I can't do that.

Speaker 1

你得去那个设置页面,手动把它打开。

You're gonna have to go to this, like, setting screen and turn it on.

Speaker 1

它只是能访问某个功能,前提是得有合适的防护和权限控制。

It's just a thing it has access to and, hopefully, with, like, the right guarding and permissions.

Speaker 1

这是我目前最期待的一个方向。

So that's, like, theme one that I'm, like, extremely excited about.

Speaker 1

如果我们做对了,应该能彻底重塑我们所有产品的体验。

And I think I if we do it right, should actually, like, transform all of our products, like, from head to toe.

Speaker 1

另一点是,我不谈我们内部正在做的产品,但有个反馈词让我印象深刻——就是缩小差距。

The other piece is and I'll but maybe, like, share, like, the the the feel not the internal product we're working on, but, like, the the phrase I got as feedback was, like, I think closing the gap I mean, I talked about closing the gap between capabilities in reality.

Speaker 1

我觉得这个差距,不只是能力上的,更是人们理解自己工作的方式,和实际执行工作之间的落差。

I think it's also closing the gap between how people understand their own work and then how the actual day to day is to do that work.

Speaker 1

我跟我们隐私团队的人聊过,他们要把一个工单从一个队列移到另一个队列,得手动复制粘贴八个步骤,特别繁琐,还容易出错。

I was talking to somebody internally who's on our privacy team, and to move a ticket from, like, one queue through another one via the task tracker into another was, like, eight different steps of copying and pasting of, like, manually moving a pretty, you know, like, kind of annoying to have to do, probably error prone.

Speaker 1

我得时不时去检查一下,确保没出问题。

I have to, like, keep spot checking it.

Speaker 1

我们帮她用其中一个实验室项目,把这件事变得不那么烦人。

And we helped her with one of our labs projects to basically, like, make that not a pain.

Speaker 1

她说,这还是她三十年职业生涯里头一次遇到这样的事。

And she's like, ah, this is the first time in my career, and she's like, been working for thirty years.

Speaker 1

我脑子里想的,和我实际用的,现在终于对上了。

We're like, what's in my head and what I am using is, like, now this.

Speaker 1

这个缺口,现在算是补上了。

Like, it is now closed.

Speaker 1

我想把这种体验带给每个人。当然,云技术已经让很多非技术人员能写代码了,但我们还是要求他们理解太多概念——比如沙箱环境和生产环境的区别,是用自己身份还是他人身份连接MCP,数据该怎么存?

And I wanna, like, bring that feeling to everybody who, like you know, of course, Cloud unlocked a lot of, you know, nontechnical people being able to code, but, like, it's we're still asking people to understand way too many concepts of, like, what is what is, you know, the difference between, like, my sandbox environment and production or, like, connected MCP as myself or others or how should I store data?

Speaker 1

当然,不是所有东西都能抽象掉,但如果你把这两个方向结合起来——让云具备足够的自我认知,打造一个能以可重复的方式帮人解决复杂问题的环境,我真的会特别特别兴奋。

And, of course, you can't abstract everything, but, like, if you combine both of those themes, if you give cloud a lot of self knowledge and you're creating an environment where it can actually solve complex problems for people in, like, repeatable ways, I think I get, like, very, very excited about those.

Speaker 2

这是你的终极目标。

And your moonshot.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

我还没来得及去探索那些额外的轨道任务。

I'm not letting was exploring extra extra orbital.

Speaker 2

那句话怎么说来着?

What was the phrase?

Speaker 2

好像是在说探索轨道之后的世界之类的事。

Something about exploring, like, post orbital world things.

Speaker 1

这真不是我负责的领域。

Definitely not my department.

Speaker 1

不过,确实有些事情在

But, yeah, there's there's stuff stuff in

Speaker 2

实验室那边不是专门和计算团队在合作吗?

the labs isn't working specifically with the team on compute?

Speaker 1

对。

Right.

Speaker 1

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 1

这是完全独立的。

It's a separate separate

Speaker 2

完全独立。

Totally separate.

Speaker 2

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 2

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 2

所以你们在搞登月计划。

So you're moonshot.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

你个人相信在太空中建数据中心吗?

Do you personally believe in data centers in space?

Speaker 0

我

I

Speaker 1

跟人聊过这事。

had a conversation.

Speaker 1

我可不是什么数据中心专家,但我认识一个专门把东西送进太空的人,不是马斯克那种。

I, I'm, by far, from a data center expert, but I talked to somebody who is a, like, a person who sends things to space, who's not Elon Musk.

Speaker 3

这话说得没错。

That's what that's what you would say.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

而且

And

Speaker 1

他特别看好这个方向,我就问他为什么。

they were really bullish, and I was, like, trying to talk about why.

Speaker 1

他说,只要技术到位,能源几乎是无限的,空间也几乎是无限的。

And it was basically, like, I guess, effectively infinite infinite power if you convert it well and, you know, infinite land.

Speaker 1

我当时就想,好吧。

And I was like, okay.

Speaker 1

你其实可以买到这种东西。

You can buy that.

Speaker 1

我觉得他们对需要做的屏蔽工作还挺有信心的。

I mean, and I think they feel good about the shielding you have to do.

Speaker 1

当然,这明显不是我的专业领域。

Again, clearly not my area of expertise.

Speaker 1

但那次谈话之后,我就明白了,真的懂了。

But after that talk, I was like, okay, I see I see it, you know.

Speaker 1

我明白其中的道理了。

I see it.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

即使这可能需要几年时间。

Even if it's gonna take a few years.

Speaker 1

一开始我确实觉得这想法太疯狂了,但现在我明白了,其实挺有道理的。

At first, I admittedly thought it was a crazy idea in general, but now I'm like, oh, actually, I really can understand why this might make sense.

Speaker 2

你刚才提到云计算的工作流程会被压缩、步骤会减少,我一听就想到代币了——也许短期内,让用户走更多步骤、消耗更多代币,对你的商业模式反而是好事。

When when you were talking earlier about the ways that the work in cloud is going to get compressed and all those steps, I couldn't help but think of tokens and how, you know, maybe it's good for your business model in the short term if people have to take so many steps and use so many tokens.

Speaker 2

但如今代币已经成了我们描述这个行业的一个经济单位,大家要么拼命囤代币,要么拼命用代币。我想知道,你站在哪一边?你是代币狂热派吗?

But tokens have become this unit of economics that we're using to describe the industry now, and people are token maxing, and now they're token mizing, and one, I want to see I want to hear where you sit on that spectrum if you're a token maxer.

Speaker 2

还有第二个问题:未来有没有可能,这个行业不再用代币来衡量价值?

And two, is there a near future in which the industry is not actually measured by tokens?

Speaker 2

就像MIPS或者拨号上网那样,最终被别的指标取代,成为这个时代的全新经济尺度。

You know, it goes the way of MIPS or dial up or some other you know, there's some other unit of measurement that actually defines the economics of this era.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

这两个问题都特别有意思。

I think both of those are really interesting questions.

Speaker 1

今年早些时候,开始有人提到一些公司搞了仪表盘,专门显示谁用得最多,这事儿挺耐人寻味的。

It was interesting earlier this year when you started hearing about, like, companies that have, like, dashboards showing, like, who used it the most.

Speaker 1

当然,我们自己也有内部的衡量指标。

And we, of course, have, like, internal metrics as well.

Speaker 1

我们发现,用得最多令牌的人,和我们觉得最有生产力的人,其实没什么关联。说起来挺有意思——你可以试着列出你公司里你认为最高效的十个人,再看看用令牌最多的前十名,看看他们有多重合。

And we found that there's not a lot of correlation between, like, the person who's using the most tokens and, like, the person that I like, was an interesting thought, actually, as maybe you at your company is, like, write down your 10 most productive people that you think are most productive, and then, like, get your top 10 token users and see how closely they correlate.

Speaker 1

至少对我们来说,这两者关联度并不高。

At least for us, it wasn't that correlated.

Speaker 1

单纯把使用量最高的人捧上神坛,感觉挺危险的。

It seemed dangerous to sort of, like, sort of purely glorify the, like, maximum usage.

Speaker 1

这显然很容易被操控。

Obviously, it's, like, very gameable.

Speaker 1

但更进一步说,你当然可以让Claude生成十个不同版本,可如果你认真思考过,可能只会挑出两个最有潜力的,再针对其中一个做迭代优化。

But even beyond that, I think it's it's you know, yes, you can ask Claude to do 10 different variants on something, but if you thought about it deeply, maybe you would do choose two that you thought were most promising, and the third one if you then had, like, some iteration on that as well.

Speaker 1

所以我不觉得,那个我做的、耗了上百万令牌的转换任务,就是最‘高效’的例子。

So I would not say, like, a token match the the tokeniest thing was that conversion thing I did, which is, like, a couple million tokens.

Speaker 1

那只是把Python代码转成TypeScript,本来就耗了特别多令牌而已。

Just, like, a lot of tokens that it took to convert the the thing from from Python to TypeScript.

Speaker 1

但我觉得大家现在对这些不同方面考虑得更周到了。

But I think people are being more thoughtful about these different pieces.

Speaker 1

每次我们评估一个新模型时,不光看它的智能水平,更看重智能、投入精力和令牌效率这三者的结合。

And and one of the things we look at whenever we look at a model launch is not just model intelligence, but we're also really thinking about model intelligence and effort and token efficiency as that combination.

Speaker 1

我觉得我们能提升的关键在于,如何让模型在完成同样任务时用更少的令牌,这样你甚至都不用费心去想这些事。

I think that's a big lever we have to improve is how do we continue to be more and more token efficient for a given task so that you can also hopefully you don't have to think very hard about this.

Speaker 1

系统能自动处理,而我们还能更精准地根据问题调整方案。

Can do this automatically, but we're able to tune the solution to the problem a little bit more.

Speaker 1

至于你的第二个问题,我以前当首席产品官的时候,确实一直在想,如果能实现基于成果的定价,那会非常有意思。

And then to your second question, yeah, when I was still in the CPO seat, I was thinking a lot about outcome based pricing as something that would be really interesting to do if you could do.

Speaker 1

当然,像Sierra和Finn这样的公司,他们有明确的案例——比如我们成功解决了客户的需求,而且没让问题升级,这种结果一目了然。

And of course, if you talk to like the Sierras and Finns of the world that have like a really clear like we kept this, you know, we were able to solve this customer request and not have it escalated like that's really clear.

Speaker 1

但像我们现在让Claude处理的这些任务,要衡量成果就模糊多了。

It gets so much fuzzier on these, like, tasks that we actually ask Claude these days.

Speaker 1

比如我之前写过一份战略文档。

Like, I had a strategy document.

Speaker 1

我让Claude帮我点评那份战略文档。

I used Claude to critique my strategy document.

Speaker 1

那结果到底怎么样?

Like, what was the outcome?

Speaker 1

说实话,我也说不准。

It's like, well, I don't know.

Speaker 1

你倒是说说,六个月后这个战略会变成什么样?

It's like, tell me how the strategy goes six months from now.

Speaker 1

感觉要准确衡量这个难度挺大的。

It feels like it's gonna be very hard to to capture that as well.

Speaker 1

但我希望看到更多尝试,比如能不能更清楚地衡量它对个人或公司到底有多大的价值,然后找到最好的方式来实现这一点。

But I would like to see some more experimentation around, can you better capture, like, what it's worth, you know, to the individual and then or to the company, and then can we find the best way to to do that as well?

Speaker 1

说到这个,我们目前最贴近的一个实际产品是云托管代理,我们会帮你搞定所有基础设施,包括代理框架和工具调用这些事。

And I guess the the most concrete thing we've moved towards that in, we have a product called Cloud Managed Agents where we'll run all of the infrastructure for you in terms of doing all of the agentic harness and calling the tools, etcetera.

Speaker 1

你可以选择常规模式,就是给出任务,它就会消耗相应的token。

And you can either do it in sort of the normal mode, which is you give it tasks, it will go through tokens.

Speaker 1

它完成后会通知你。

It'll tell you when it's done.

Speaker 1

或者我们有个以结果为导向的模式,你可以直接说:这就是理想的效果。

Or we have an outcome based mode where you can say, here's what good looks like.

Speaker 1

这是评估标准。

Here's a rubric.

Speaker 1

去执行吧。

Go and do it.

Speaker 1

它会自己去推进,让结果更贴近目标。

And, you know, you know, it'll go off and make it more outcome.

Speaker 1

如果大家都开始用这个API,也许我们就能改用基于结果的定价方式。

So like if everybody had moved on to that API, then I think maybe we could have a different sort of outcome based pricing.

Speaker 1

不过还得看看大家会不会接受。

But we'll see how that gets adopted.

Speaker 0

约翰,或者后排的同事,我们有那个随机图片吗?

John or the guys in the back, can do we have the random image?

Speaker 0

我们能展示一下随机图片吗?

Can we show the random image?

Speaker 0

如果能的话,那就太好了。

If we can, great.

Speaker 0

真期待看到那张随机图片。

Excited the random image.

Speaker 0

哦,来了。

Oh, here it is.

Speaker 0

好吧。

Okay.

Speaker 0

只是因为我们当时没给它起个好名字。

It's just because we didn't have a good label for it.

Speaker 0

我们就叫它随机图片,因为它随时都可能出现。

We just called it the random image because it might come up at any point.

Speaker 0

但这张图来自《金融时报》,讲的是实用性,显示了应用发布数量急剧上升,而使用量大的应用和用户评价却在下降。

But this is a chart from the Financial Times speaking of utility where it shows the amount of app releases that have come out which are skyrocketing and then apps with significant usage that seem to be going down and app reviews which seem to be going down.

Speaker 0

迈克,我想听听你对这张图里看到的现象有什么看法。

So Mike, I'd love to hear you respond to what we're seeing in the image here.

Speaker 0

会不会是大家都在写代码、发应用,但实际生产率并没有明显提升?

Is it possible that everybody's coding and releasing, but we're not really seeing a big boom in productivity?

Speaker 0

我的意思是,这确实很值得思考。

That's really I mean, I

Speaker 1

我觉得应用使用量整体上明显符合二八法则。

think there's definitely a power law in in app usage in general.

Speaker 1

如果能看看这些新发布应用里,有没有哪个最终成了使用量大的应用,那就很有意思了。

It'd be interesting to seeing if any of those app release became one of the apps with significant usage.

Speaker 1

对。

Mhmm.

Speaker 0

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 0

我们可以先到这里。

We could take it.

Speaker 0

我们可以接手这个,唐。

We could take it, Don.

Speaker 0

对。

Yep.

Speaker 1

你讲吧。

Go ahead.

Speaker 1

我觉得这跟我一直思考的一个问题有关,我的背景是消费领域,我一直想知道消费类AI的突破点会是什么。

I think this ties into something that I've been thinking a lot about, obviously, my background is in consumer, and I've been wondering what the consumer AI breakouts will end up being.

Speaker 1

但我还不清楚为什么到现在还没看到明显的突破。

And I don't know why we've seen a lot of them yet.

Speaker 1

我觉得部分原因在于——我不确定这张图追溯到多久以前,但当我们推出Instagram的时候,应用生态还像一片蛮荒之地。

And I think part of it is, you know, I don't I don't know how far back that that chart goes, but when were releasing Instagram, it still felt a little bit wild west in terms of the apps.

Speaker 1

那时候大家对 apps 都特别热情,两个普普通通的人随便做个 app,三个月内就能冲到照片和视频类的第一名。

Like, people were excited about apps and, like, two kind of random people released an app and we're able to get to, like, number one in photos and video within three months.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

现在想想,前十大应用已经高度集中了,大家花在TikTok和Reels这类平台上的时间也多得惊人。

I think that is much harder now when you think about how consolidated the top 10 is and how much time spent is spent on, like, the TikToks and Reels of the world.

Speaker 1

真的很多。

It's a lot.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

所以我觉得,要打造出一个突破性的消费级AI体验,真的非常困难。

And so I think getting that breakthrough consumer experience, I think, is really, really hard.

Speaker 1

这其实也说明了,如今消费类产品有多集中,这是第一点。

So I think that is as much a story about how sort of consolidated consumer products are these days, number one.

Speaker 1

第二点,像Google Docs这样的产品,它们积累的数据壁垒有多强。

Number two, how entrenched or how powerful it is to have that sort of data data graphite, like the data graphite of something like your Google Docs or your Google Docs.

Speaker 1

就算有人做出一个性能高出两倍的AI文档编辑器,你也不太可能把所有资料都搬过去。

So even if somebody has a, like, two x better AI powered, you know, doc editor, you're gonna move all your stuff up.

Speaker 1

也许吧,但可能性不大。

Maybe, probably not.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得这说明了那些让人上瘾的产品特点。

So I think that it speaks to, you know, the things that are sticky.

Speaker 1

我觉得很多时候,难的还是那些根本性的难题,比如做出人们真正想要的东西,依然非常困难。

I think I think about a lot is, like, the hard stuff is still hard, like, making something people want still really hard.

Speaker 1

我们内部其实有不少很棒的工具来支撑这些。

You know, we have amazing bottles internally on top of it.

Speaker 1

但并不是我们的所有产品都能成功。

Not all of our products work.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

所以我觉得这对像我这样的产品人来说反而是个积极的信号,意味着我们可能依然能创造价值。

And so I think that's a bullish sign for, like, product people like me because it means that I think we hopefully still add value.

Speaker 1

但我觉得这张图也说明了,哪怕你写代码的速度更快了,要脱颖而出还是比以往任何时候都难。

But I think that chart is maybe another place just like it's harder in many ways than ever to break through even if you can code more quickly.

Speaker 1

要是能用一个月,而不是三到四个月,我们就把Instagram做出来了,那该多好。

And what could we have done Instagram in, you know, a month instead of three or four?

Speaker 1

大概是吧。

Probably.

Speaker 1

但我们是经过了一段漫长而曲折的过程才走到这一步的。

But we got there after, like, a long winding turns and twists and turns process.

Speaker 0

你们卖掉Instagram的时候,团队有18个人吧?

You had, I think, 18 people at Instagram when you sold it?

Speaker 3

13个。

13.

Speaker 3

有了这些工具,你们觉得

With these tools, do you

Speaker 0

你们会需要多少人?

think you would have how many people you think you would have had?

Speaker 1

这挺有意思的,因为那13个人里,

It's really interesting because of those 13 a number.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

大家都觉得,哦,十亿美元估值,就一个人搞起来的创业公司。

It's like everyone's like, oh, 1,000,000,001 billion dollar one person start up.

Speaker 0

你们当时能走到哪一步?

How close could you guys have gotten?

Speaker 1

我觉得有四到六个人,应该就能做到了。

I think we could have gotten there with, like, four to six, you know?

Speaker 1

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

如果我们团队再大一点,就能同时推进好几件事了。

I I the thing that we would have done if we'd grown up, we'd be able to do some things in more than a single track.

Speaker 1

就像我五岁儿子踢足球那样——球一出来,所有人全冲着球跑。

Like, Instagram was have you ever watched my five year old play soccer now, by which I mean, like, ball is there and every single person runs the ball.

Speaker 1

我们产品团队当时就是那样。

Like, that was our product team.

Speaker 1

那时候就像视频一出来,所有人都扑到同一个事情上,但我们其实可以像踢球一样分工,比如有人专门负责安卓。

It was like video go and everybody like goes and works on the one thing and like we'd be able to like play positions like Android.

Speaker 1

我们用大概一个月时间做出了Instagram的版本。

We built in about a month for Instagram.

Speaker 1

如果有现成的模型,我们本来一周就能搞定,但做安卓版时,我们把所有人都从iOS调开,重新学怎么写安卓代码。

We could have done it probably in a week with the models and but and to build Android, we took everybody off iOS, and we all, like, relearned to code in, you know, code Android OS.

Speaker 1

然后我们就去专心做安卓了。

And then we went off and do that.

Speaker 1

那整整一个月,iOS这边几乎没怎么更新功能。

And, like, for that whole month, we were barely shipping updates on iOS.

Speaker 1

我觉得你其实可以举个更好的例子。

I think you can be a lot more actually, a really good example.

Speaker 1

我内部有个实验室项目,能帮Anthropic的工程师更快地写代码和做代码审查。

There's a labs project I have internally that, like, helps accelerate how Anthropic engineers, like, code and do code review.

Speaker 1

这个项目我同时维护着iOS和安卓两个版本,基本上iOS这边一有动作,就立刻通知安卓那边,说:嘿。

And that that project, I am maintaining an iOS and an Android version of, and I basically have the cloud that works on the iOS one, basically, like, ping the Android one and be like, hey.

Speaker 1

这个功能是我实现的。

I implemented this.

Speaker 1

抱歉,安卓用户。

Sorry, Android users.

Speaker 1

即使在ALM体系里,它还是排第二。

It's still the second one even in ALM world.

Speaker 1

不好意思。

Sorry.

Speaker 1

然后他们就会说,好吧,我打算做这个。

And then they they enter versions like, okay.

Speaker 1

我要做这个功能。

I'm gonna do this.

Speaker 1

这个不算,因为这个功能在这儿根本说不通。

Oh, that doesn't count because that that feature doesn't make sense here.

Speaker 1

我把它删了。

I'm gonna drop it.

Speaker 1

当然,我们不可能把所有这些都交给Instagram来处理,但要是有个类似这种平台恶搞的构想,其实现在完全做得到,而且效果会很好。

And, of course, we wouldn't be able to delegate all of that on Instagram, but we sure could have done a lot by having sort of platform parody like this dream of platform like close to parody is now actually quite doable.

Speaker 2

你现在可能会接到Instagram团队里剩下那六七个人的电话,问:‘我到底是谁?’

You're probably going to get calls now from the remaining six or seven people on your Instagram team going, Who was I?

Speaker 2

我有没有在新时代的名单上?

Did I make the cut in the new era?

Speaker 2

听起来,如果你真想,现在完全可以把高谭市重新搞回来。

Also, it sounds like you probably could bring Gotham back now if you really wanted to.

Speaker 1

至于我们最后有没有把它弄回来,我觉得可能在愚人节那天短暂恢复过一次。

Forget if we eventually I mean, I think for April Fools, maybe we brought it back one day.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

我们还有时间问最后一个问题吗?

Do we have time for one more question?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

最后一个问题。

Last question.

Speaker 2

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 2

我的最后一个问题是,你参与开发的产品如今已经演变成某种在伦理上颇具争议的东西,因为人们担心它对儿童造成的伤害。

I mean, my last question for you is you worked on a product that now as it has evolved is is in many ways ethically fraught because of some of the harms that people are concerned about with children.

Speaker 2

当你提到至今还没有出现真正爆火的AI消费级应用时,我觉得其实已经有了,那就是聊天机器人,对吧?

And when you talk about the fact that there hasn't really been a big breakout consumer app for AI, I think there has and it's chatbots, right?

Speaker 2

而聊天机器人也确实给年轻人带来了实实在在的风险和伤害。

And chatbots have also led to some real dangers and harms for young people.

Speaker 2

所以当你在实验室里做研发的时候,是怎么考虑这种技术不断进步可能带来的潜在危害和风险的呢?

And so when you are building in labs, how are you thinking about the, you know, the potential harms and the risks that come with just making this technology that much better?

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,我们确实有一些产品,要么还在原型阶段,要么只是构想出来的,一听到就觉得这东西太炒作了吧。

I mean, I think there there are certainly products that we have either prototype or conceptualized and been like this product because it sounds so hype y.

Speaker 1

我真的受不了这种东西。

I hate this.

Speaker 1

但要是真把这种产品推出来,对世界来说只会是坏事,或者会把人带偏方向。

But, like like, this product, if shipped, would be bad for the world or, like, would nudge people in the wrong direction.

Speaker 1

就算我们做得再严谨,那种更糟糕、道德上更成问题的版本,我们依然认为会带来实际危害。

Or even if we did it right, the, like, wrong or, like, more morally fraught version of this would be actively, we think, bad.

Speaker 1

所以是的。

And so Mhmm.

Speaker 1

我觉得在团队内部经常问这个问题,真的能带来改变。

I think asking that question a lot internally makes a difference.

Speaker 1

我们能有核心产品和模型表现得这么好,其实是一种幸运,这让我们在面对可能被广泛使用的项目时,做决定相对容易一些。

And having it's a luxury to have core products and models that are doing really really well so we don't that's that in some ways an easy decision if we if we think it could get a lot of a lot of use.

Speaker 1

不过,回到之前聊过的话题,我觉得提前考虑这些问题特别重要,真正深入思考:现在,像经济学家这样的人,开始被纳入公司团队,专门评估我们所做东西对社会的影响,这在以前是很少见的,尤其是在大多数社交媒体公司里,过去根本不是这样。

But, yeah, I think going back to an earlier conversation, I think front loading it is really valuable and really thinking through, like, it is now more normalized to have people at a company and definitely Anthropic does for, like, economists thinking about the impact of the thing that you're building on the world, and that just was not the case in along the years on on most of social media, I think.

Speaker 0

是的

Yeah.

Speaker 0

迈克,每次和你交流都特别棒

Mike, it's always great to

Speaker 2

和你聊天真好

speak with you

Speaker 0

感谢你今天分享的见解,希望很快再见到你

again for bringing your insight today, and let's see it again soon.

Speaker 0

是的

Yeah.

Speaker 0

让我们为迈克和劳伦鼓掌

Let's hear for Mike and Lauren.

Speaker 0

谢谢

Thank you.

Speaker 0

干得漂亮

Great job.

Speaker 0

谢谢。

Thank you.

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