Anthropic对决五角大楼，Block大裁员，Citrini抛售潮

我们来聊点轻松的新闻，比如融资轮次。

Let's move on to lighter news like funding rounds.

好的。

Alright.

OpenAI宣布获得1100亿美元融资，投资方包括亚马逊、英伟达和软银。

OpenAI announces a $110,000,000,000 funding round with backing from Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank.

终于来了，我们一直谈论的这一轮融资真的来了，天啊，这轮融资的到来真是个巨大的转折。

So it's finally here, the round we've been talking about, man, that was quite a transition with the round we've been talking about has arrived.

这比预期的还要大。

It is bigger than expected.

记得一开始亚马逊承诺的是500亿美元，然后涨到1000亿，现在变成了1100亿，这是来自CNBC的消息。

Remember, it started out at 50,000,000,000 Amazon and now it's one and then it went to 100,000,000,000 now it's $1.10 and this is from CNBC.

随着融资进程推进，预计还会有其他投资者加入，所以这轮融资还没结束。

Other investors are expected to join as the round progresses, so it's not even over.

我们目前只是有了这三家大公司的巨额承诺，其中亚马逊承诺了500亿美元。

We just have these big commitments, from these three big companies, 50,000,000,000 from Amazon.

我的意思是，这太疯狂了。

I mean, is that's wild.

说到达里奥，我不禁想，当他最大的合作伙伴亚马逊与OpenAI达成这样的交易时，他现在感觉如何？

Speaking of, of Dario, I wonder how he's feeling now that, you know, one of his biggest partners in Amazon is making a deal like this with OpenAI.

我们不会在这上面花太多时间，但兰詹，你对这笔融资的规模、参与方有什么看法？我还特别喜欢我们居然要略过有史以来最大的一轮融资。

We won't spend too much time on it, but Ranjan, your takeaway from the size of the round, who's in, and, any other things that I love how we're gonna glaze over the biggest funding round of all time.

只有在2026年2月，私人市场中1100亿美元的融资才会让人觉得：咱们别在这上面花太多时间了。

Only in February 2026 could a $110,000,000,000 round in a private market actually be like, let's not spend too much time on it.

但我认为我得指出一点，我很高兴OpenAI让这一轮融资变得尽可能地‘OpenAI风格’，因为1100亿美元才是 headline。

But but I think I wanna call out it being and I'm very glad that OpenAI is making, again, this funding round the most OpenAI ish thing possible because 110,000,000,000 is the headline.

实际上很难确定这笔融资的准确数额，因为根据相关信息，亚马逊决定向OpenAI投资高达500亿美元，这取决于OpenAI是否上市，或达成一个模糊定义的里程碑——即通用人工智能。

It is impossible to tell what the actual round is because, again, one of the from the information, Amazon's decision to invest up to $50,000,000,000 in OpenAI could hang on whether OpenAI goes public or reaches a loosely defined milestone known as artificial general intelligence.

我最喜欢的部分是，我们曾经在与微软和OpenAI的基准竞争中失去过它，但现在它又回来了。

That was my favorite part because we might after we lost that benchmark with Microsoft and OpenAI, but now it's back.

而‘宣布AGI可能解锁数百亿美元资金’这一想法，再次卷土重来了。

And this idea of, like, declaring AGI actually potentially unlocking tens of billions of dollars, it's back again.

而且，我们在这里的播客中又有了一个衡量标准。

And and, again, we have our benchmark here on the podcast.

Waymo 正式在纽约市运营，就意味着 AGI 已经实现了。

Waymo's operating in New York City officially will mean AGI is here.

但我觉得我不确定。

But I think I don't know.

你对这笔融资的复杂性怎么看？你真的会称这是 1100 亿美元的融资轮吗？

Did you like, the complexity of the funding, do you call this do you genuinely call this $110,000,000,000 round?

这里涉及的条件太多了。

There's so many stipulations here.

不。

No.

这肯定不是那样。

It's not it's not certainly not that.

你指出的这一点非常重要。

It's I think it's a very important point that you're calling out here.

我的意思是，还记得当初OpenAI和NVIDIA说他们要联手投入1000亿美元，结果后来变成了另一种说法：现在是100亿，以后再说。

I mean, remember when OpenAI and NVIDIA said that they were gonna do a $100,000,000,000 together, and it was another one of these, well, it's 10,000,000,000 now and in time.

结果发现，那1000亿美元实际上只是300亿，这才是NVIDIA真正要投资的金额。

Turns out that $100,000,000,000 was actually 30,000,000,000, which is what NVIDIA will be investing.

尽管黄仁勋说我们希望他们能邀请我们回去，但显然，宣称有意投资1000亿和实际投入300亿是完全不同的两回事。

Although Jensen Monga said we hope they invite us, you know, to come back, but certainly a intent to invest a 100 is very different from an actual action to invest 30.

对我来说，有趣的是这些重大交易最终会带来什么结果。

To me the interesting thing here is where, you know, what happens as a result of these major deals.

所以这是来自CNBC的报道，OpenAI表示将把与亚马逊云服务现有的380亿美元协议在未来八年内再增加1000亿美元。

So this is from, CNBC and OpenAI said it's expanding its existing $38,000,000,000 agreement with Amazon Web Services by 100,000,000,000 over the next year eight years.

所以它将从亚马逊获得500亿，但自己也要再投入1000亿或1380亿美元。

So so it's gonna get 50 from Amazon, but it's gonna put back either 100 or $1.38.

所以我对这个公告感到非常高兴。

That's why I'm so happy about this announcement.

它涵盖了所有方面。

It's got everything.

它有着模糊的基准和分期安排。

It's got kind of like nebulous benchmarks and tranches.

它涉及循环融资和资金运作。

It's got circular funding and financing.

这简直就是典型的SAM融资轮。

It's it's a classic SAM funding round.

再次强调，正如你所说，可能在八年内投入500亿，将380亿提升到1000亿。

Again, yeah, like, as you said, potentially putting in 50, potentially over eight years, getting that 38,000,000,000 up to a 100,000,000,000.

这简直是完美的OpenAI融资模式。

It's it's it's perfect OpenAI funding.

没错。

That's right.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，今天早些时候萨姆在CNBC上表示，只有收入增长，这件事才可能成功，但他回应了循环融资的问题。

I I mean, as Sam was on, CNBC earlier today and basically said, look, this is only gonna work if the revenue goes up, but in answering the circular funding thing.

我认为他是对的。

And I think he's right.

只有当收入增加时，这才会成功。

It's only gonna work if the revenue goes up.

我觉得基本上就是这样。

Think that's basically it.

这本身就是一门好生意。

That's good business right there.

好生意。

Good business.

但当然，没错。

But also, like, yeah, of course.

如果指数增长持续下去，他就将继续获得资金，一切就都说得通了。

If the exponential continues, then he'll continue to get the money, and it all makes sense.

如果增长停止，他就不会获得资金。

And if it doesn't, he won't get the money.

是的。

Yeah.

我想我的意思是，我确实很想聊聊你目前对OpenAI业务的看法。

I think I mean, I definitely wanna get into kind of, like, where you see OpenAI's business at this exact moment.

但同样让我感到有趣的是，大家几乎没有讨论这些资金将投向何处。

But but, like, one one thing that was also interesting to me as well was there wasn't a lot of talk around where this money gets invested into.

像一年前或两年前，我觉得任何一轮大规模融资都会紧紧围绕着开发下一代模型、建设数据中心展开。

Like, in the old days of a year or two ago, I feel any of these big funding rounds would really kind of center around getting to that next generation model, building data centers.

那时的情况我还是不太清楚。

It was still a bit I don't know.

你有注意到什么吗？

Did you see anything?

当时并没有一个明确的、标志性的方向，来说明这些资金对OpenAI以及整个生态系统究竟意味着什么？

Like, it still wasn't there wasn't a big kind of flagship push around what this money actually is gonna mean to both OpenAI and the ecosystem at large?

是的。

Yeah.

这必须是基础设施。

It has to be infrastructure.

对吧？

Right?

以及对推理的支持，尤其是当你与亚马逊和英伟达这样的合作伙伴合作时。

And just the support for inference, especially when you're working with partners like Amazon and NVIDIA.

我认为这并非偶然。

I think that's not an accident.

OpenAI 已经明确告诉我们游戏规则了。

And OpenAI basically told us what the game is.

对吧？

Right?

他们说，如果我们能构建更多基础设施并满足更多需求，我们就能赚更多钱，并会持续投入，直到这一假设被证明不成立。

They're like, if we are able to build more infrastructure and serve more demand, we're gonna make more money and we'll keep building until that proves to be untrue.

所以对我来说，这仅仅是这一方向上的一步而已。

So to me that's this is that's just one step here along the way on that front.

但你现在如何看待OpenAI的竞争地位呢？

Well but where do you view OpenAI competitively right now?

我很好奇。

I'm curious.

我只是想说，这对我来说太疯狂了。

I'm just gonna say, like, it is crazy to me.

我的ChatGPT使用频率在Gemini出现后大幅下降了。

My ChatGPT usage has declined dramatically between Gemini.

实际上，对于日常一些基础性任务，我现在用得更多了。

Actually, for, like, day to day just basic stuff, I'm using a lot more.

就像之前我们讨论过的切换成本和护城河一样。

Like, it just again, and we've talked about switching costs and moat, actually.

我知道，长期被热议的‘记忆’功能据说会逐渐构建起这种护城河，但它依然不断提醒我，这些看似稳固的基础其实多么脆弱——现在用户数量不是号称有九亿了吗？

And I know, like, the idea of memory, which everyone has been talking about for a long time, is supposed to kinda start to build that moat, but it's still such a reminder to me of how brittle a lot of these kind of, like, foundations are that might seem, again, what is it, 900,000,000 users now?

是的。

Yeah.

刚才说了，九亿用户。

Just said today, 900,000,000 users.

是的。

Yeah.

一亿。

100,000,000.

是的。

Yeah.

所以他们肯定会在三月中下旬到月底前达到十亿用户。

So they're definitely on track for a billion by mid mid to late March.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

到四月。

To April.

而且再说一遍，对普通人来说，ChatGPT 就像是 AI 领域的谷歌那样的品牌名称，不管怎么说，就是个代名词。

And and again, ChatGPT is the, like, Google kinda, like, trademark brand name, whatever, of, like, AI for the average person.

它已经变成一个动词了。

It's like a verb.

但说实话，我前几天特意查了一下，因为我很好奇。

But still, like I I actually was looking this up the other day because I was curious.

去年我们这档节目提到过，当时新闻头条说 Anthropic 搞砸了。

Back us on this show a year ago, there were headlines Anthropic was screwed.

意思是，消费者端的使用量在下降。

Like, usage was going down on the consumer side.

而且，再次向他们致以极大的敬意。

And, again, massive credit to them.

他们做出了非常明确的押注。

They had such a clear bet.

我们很早就指出过，他们全面投入了编程 API。

And we we outlined this very early that, like, they were going all in on coding API.

他们基本上放弃了消费产品，但这对他们来说取得了惊人的成功。

They were giving up the consumer product, basically, and it worked brilliantly for them.

但再说到十二个月前、十四个月前，当时的主流说法是Anthropic处境非常糟糕。

But it again, twelve months ago, fourteen months ago, the narrative was very strongly anthropic is in a bad position.

这有点像现在Perplexity的处境。

It's kinda where perplexity is now.

OpenAI正在全面主导市场。

OpenAI is just dominating.

Gemini正在崛起。

Gemini is on the rise.

两年前，Gemini和Google已经完蛋了。

Two years ago, Gemini and Google are dead.

就像，真的，就是这样。

Like, it it just yeah.

它不断提醒我，如今这个市场的变化有多快。

It keeps reminding me just how quickly things can shift in this market right now.

是的。

Yeah.

变化很快。

It changes fast.

我的意思是，当人们想到生成式AI时，他们想到的是ChatGPT。

I mean, like, when people think about generative AI, they think about ChatGPT.

如果你是OpenAI，现在这就是你的核心产品。

That's what you hang your hat on right now if you're OpenAI.

其他一些布局，比如Sora，并没有完全按计划实现。

Some of the other bets, Sora, you know, haven't worked exactly according to plan.

我们还没有推出设备，但我认为你基本上采取了双管齐下的策略。

We still don't have the device, but I think that basically you you have this two pronged strategy.

你从零开始打造ChatGPT，它是最领先的消费级产品，然后以此为杠杆，进军企业市场。

You you're growing Chateappity from the ground up, it's the leading consumer product, and you use that to leverage, and move into enterprise.

而且，是的，他们正在进军编程领域。

And and, yeah, they're making their move into coding.

现在编码市场发生的事情非常有趣，你不觉得吗？

And very interesting now what's happening in the coding market, wouldn't you say?

因为你有Cloud Code，你知道的，我简直快疯了。

Because you have Cloud Code, which, you know, I've been, you know, I've been in like like crazy.

我每隔几个小时就碰到极限了，全都在Cloud Code里。

I'm hitting my limits every couple hours, just in Cloud Code.

太惊人了。

It's amazing.

还有一些其他玩家，比如Cursor，随着这两大巨头入场，它们的走势也在上下波动。

And there's some other some other players like Cursor that are, you know, starting to go up and down, you know, as the two big boys get involved.

那么，Ranjan，Cursor现在怎么样了？

So what's happening with Cursor, Ranjan?

好的。

Okay.

我想强调一下这个故事。

So I wanted to highlight this story.

有一条推文来自凯尔·拉塞尔，提到公司正在移除90个座位，主要是通过Slack进行的。

There was kind of like a there was one tweet from a Kyle Russell around how the company was removing 90 seats and basically over Slack.

人们纷纷说，嘿。

People were like, hey.

你能把我从Cursor上取消订阅吗？

Can you unsub me from Cursor?

是的。

Yeah.

我也不再使用它了。

I'm not using it anymore too.

我认为，这种势头、人们转变的速度，以及所谓‘护城河’的概念，真的让我着迷，因为一年前，Cursor还代表着自主编码或CodeGen，被视为任何AI驱动编码的代名词，但人们切换得如此之快，所谓的护城河其实根本不存在。

And I think, again, this, like, momentum, the speed and, like, inflection with which people can shift or this idea of moat, it's just so fascinating to me because, again, a year ago, Cursor was synonymous with autonomous coding or CodeGen and saw, like, any kind of, like, AI driven coding and just how quickly people can switch, how the moat was never really there.

所以我认为这引出了两个问题。

And so I think it raises two questions.

第一，是不是所有东西最终都只集中在基础模型实验室？

Like, one, does everything kind of, like, only condensed to the foundation model labs?

我认为是产品而非模型的观点完全是错误的。

And my argument that it's the product, not the model, is completely wrong.

如果真是这样，我会明确说出来。

And if that happens, I will I will say that.

但但但对我来说，那只是一方面。

But but but I think, like, to me, there that was one side.

另一方面是Cursor的故事，我的意思是，我们并不清楚他们在收入方面的内部情况。

The other that the cursor story and it I mean, we don't know definitively, like, things are internally for them from a revenue perspective.

但我希望这能开始消除所有关于ARR（年化经常性收入）的主张。

But, like, hope that this starts to raise the every claim around ARR or annualized recurring revenue.

这种说法开始消失。

That starts to go away.

因为任何了解情况的人都知道，当你有一个好月份时，拿一个月的数据乘以12是不合理的。

Because anyone who knows, it's like taking one month of data and extrapolating it times 12 when you have a good month.

我的意思是，我见过有人开玩笑，但也许实际情况就是：你只有一周甚至一天的数据，就乘以365，然后称之为ARR。

I mean, there's like I've seen people joking, but maybe it's the case you have one week or one day and times by three sixty five and call it ARR.

我认为，在市场上，真正理解产品随时间的粘性，现在正变得越来越有价值。

I think, like, in the market, actually trying to understand stickiness over time is gonna become much, much more of, like, a valued thing right now.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这很好。

I think that's great.

我的意思是，ARR 确实存在一定程度的头衔通胀。

I mean, think that there's definitely been a some title inflation when it comes to ARR.

对吧？

Right?

比如，很多公司都在发布关于 ARR 的消息，你不得不摇摇头，想想这数字到底靠不靠谱？

Like, certainly companies are putting releases out there about ARR and you have to like, you know, kinda shake your head a little bit about, you know, is that really the number or not?

但我觉得回到你之前的观点，最重要的就是：在 AI 应用领域，由于生成式 AI 具有通用性，你总是得担心大公司会吞掉你的成果。

But I think going back to your previous point, I think that's the most important point is that, when it comes to AI applications, because of generative AI's general purpose nature, you always have to worry about one of the big companies gobbling up, what you're doing.

而 Cursor 的情况显然就是这样——Cloud Code 最初可能被视为竞争对手或只是 Cursor 的另一个版本，适用于不同场景，也许它不是一个完整的 IDE，但现在它已经完全具备了竞争力。

And certainly that's what's happened with Cursor, I think, is that Cloud Code, right, which was initially like, you know, seen as a frenemy or maybe just a different version of Cursor, that for different use cases, and it's not like not being an IDE maybe, that is fully competitive now.

人们只是在代码中工作，他们也在Codex中工作。

And people are just working within code, and they're working within codex.

所以这就是正在发生的事情，大型模型正在吞噬小型竞争对手。

And so that's how that's what's happening is the big models are just gobbling up smaller competition.

有个问题。

So question.

十二个月后，Anthropic还是行业领头羊吗？还是情况又发生了巨大变化？

Twelve months from now, is Anthropic still the king of the hill, or have things shifted again dramatically?

因为如果我们看一下，确实有一些方向相似的东西。

Because if we I mean, if we're looking, there's some kind of directionally similar things.

我的意思是，OpenAI正在增长并筹集更多资金，但谁仍然掌握着叙事、对话以及下一代创新的主导权呢？

I mean, OpenAI is growing and raising more money, but still, kind of who owns the narrative and conversation and kind of, like, the next wave of innovation.

你认为六个月或十二个月后，Anthropic还是领头羊吗？

Do you think it's still anthropic six months from now, twelve months from now?

关于编程？

On coding?

是的。

Yes.

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

否则我不知道。

Else I don't know.

总体而言。

Overall.

对。

Yeah.

嗯，他们确实现在势头很猛，但我仍然认为OpenAI是领导者。

Well, they're they're I don't I would argue that they're not like, I mean, clearly they're ascendant right now, but I would still argue that OpenAI is the leader.

但我认为编程会非常有趣，因为这正是当前的主要应用场景。

But I think coding is gonna be very interesting because that is, that is the use case right now.

这显然具有经济价值，并且正在迅猛增长。

That's that's clearly economically valuable and exploding.

事实上，我认为Anthropic付费订阅者的某些数据非常令人印象深刻。

In fact, I think some of the numbers on Anthropic paid subscribers are are quite impressive.

实际上，它们就在我收件箱里。

Actually, have them in my inbox.

你想让我读给你听吗？

You want me to read them?

读给我听。

Read them to me.

好的。

Alright.

我们来看看。

Let's see.

所以，让我们看看。

So it let's see.

免费用户数量自一月以来增长超过60%，创下云服务历史上最快的增长纪录。

Free users on on, are up more than 60% since January, fastest growth in Cloud's history.

自十一月以来，每日注册人数翻了三倍。

Daily sign ups have tripled since November.

每一天，都如此。

Every single day, okay.

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

我只是想确认一下，这会被记录下来。

I'm just making sure that this is on the record.

是的。

Yeah.

本周每一天都连续打破了云服务有史以来单日注册人数的最高纪录，付费用户数量自十月以来已翻了一倍多。

Every single day this week has consecutively broken the record for Cloud's largest ever day of sign ups, and paid subscribers have more than doubled since October.

人们留下来并升级，是因为他们看重云服务最先进功能，并且一致表示它提升了他们的思维能力。

People are staying and upgrading because they value Cloud's most advanced capabilities and consistently say it sharpens their own thinking.

所以他们说，这不仅仅是超级碗带来的短暂增长。

So it's more than a Super Bowl bump, they're saying.

这是在广告活动之前几个月就开始的采用。

It's adoption from months before the ad campaign.

所以他们做得非常好。

So they're doing really well.

我认为编程领域的竞争将会缩小，但一年后，我认为他们仍会处于领先地位，而且我认为随着编程相关应用的持续发展，这仍将是这些模型最大的使用场景。

I think that the the coding fight is going to narrow, but a year from now I think they're still gonna be in the lead, and I still think that will be the biggest use case for these models as the vibe coding stuff continues.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

嗯，我再次持不同意见，因为我的公司Rytr，也就是自主知识工作领域，正是我们专注的领域。

Well, I'll I'll differ again as as my the company I work for, Rytr, Autonomous Knowledge Work is where we play.

Claude Cowork也在其中。

Claude Cowork is in there.

Manus几乎是唯一其他真正的竞争对手。

Manus is kind of one of the only other competitors, really.

我仍然坚持我的预测，这将是今年的主要趋势。

I'm still standing by my prediction that that's gonna be the big trend of the year.

这在《Talk My Book》中是出于自身利益，但说实话，这让我觉得很有意思，因为Claude Code已经成为大多数人接触的入口。

It's self interest in Talk My Book, but really and I gotta say, I was it's been interesting to me because, like, how Claude Code has been the entry point for most people.

因为我们的公司只面向企业客户，所以它不是一个面向消费者的產品。

Because, like, our company, we only work with enterprises, so it's not a consumer product.

所以没那么多人能感受到它。

So just not as many people feeling it.

但我想你现在应该明白了。

But I just say, like, I think you get it now.

对吧？

Right?

比如在Claude Code中，它让你感受到我自去年十月以来一直在说的那种真正的自主智能代理工作——有代理在外面为你执行多步骤的实际任务。

Like, in Claude Code, it gives you that feeling of, like, what I've been trying to say since October of, like, actual autonomous agentic work, like agents out there doing stuff for you that actually works with many steps.

你现在能体会到这种感觉了。

And you feel it now.

对吧？

Right?

我听到你在说

I I heard you talking

那件事。

about that.

它。

It.

是的。

Yes.

但我认为还有很长的路要走。

But I also think there's a long way to go.

尽管它为我开发了一些内部工具，表现非常出色，我得说。

Although it's done a great job building some internal tools for me, I have to say.

所以

So

好的。

Okay.

但你现在可是支持智能代理的了。

But you're you're pro agentic now.

你开始转变了。

You're coming around.

我感受到智能代理的力量了。

I'm feeling the agentic.

我有这种感觉。

I'm feeling it.

但我还没像你那样完全信服，没完全喝下那杯酷爱饮料。

But I'm not I'm not, I don't haven't fully drank the Kool Aid like you have.

好吧。

Okay.

我们得继续前进了。

We have to go ahead.

我本来想说，我真正体会到的是，'代理'和'代理性'这两个词在2025年一整年都被用得太滥了，而且被严重误解了。

I I was gonna say, what I've actually come away with is, it's the word agent and agentic was so just beaten down and kinda, like, mischaracterized for all of 2025.

这就是为什么大家都很难开口说'代理性'这个词。

That's why everyone's just has a hard time saying the word agentic.

但事实上，现在发生的一切正是真正的代理性，这正是我们当初所期待的，只是我们听得太久，却从未实现，也没人说得通，所以人们才对这个词感到不适。

Whereas in reality, all this, what's happening is it's act this is actually agentic, that this is what we were promised, but we just heard it for so long and it wasn't working or none of it made sense that that's why people people are uncomfortable saying it.

不。

No.

我觉得这能很好地说明我们立场的差异。

Here's a I think this is a good, distinction of where we sit.

你很乐意相信，人工智能的代理性最终会好到足以独立做决定，而我却认为：绝对不要让AI做决定。

You are happy to you believe that AI will this agentic stuff will eventually be good enough to take the shots, and I'm like, do not take the shots.

如果真得要开枪，就让人类来吧。

Let's if we're gonna have to shoot, let a human do it.

好的。

Okay.

那也许这就是

That's maybe that is the

这就是分歧所在。

That's the breakdown.

对。

Yeah.

好。

Okay.

我觉得你对它太信任了。

I think you're far too trusting of it.

不过无论如何，我们改天再深入探讨这个话题吧。

But anyway, we'll we'll go go down that rabbit hole another day.

或者如果你愿意，也可以回应一下。

Or you can respond if you want.

不。

No.

我认为这是一个合理的描述。

I think that that's that's a reasonable characterization.

这跟我们平时常讨论的问题一样，到底是产品的问题还是模型的问题，可能比AI该不该出手、人类该不该出手更得体一些。

That's gonna I like I like our our regular standing debate around is it the product or the model probably is a little more tasteful than should AI take the shot or humans take the shot.

但是

But

这两个都是真实的问题。

These are both real questions.

这两个都是真实的问题，是的。

These are both real Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

好吧。

Alright.

我要休息一下，然后回来。

I'm gonna take a break and come back.

我们将在广告后回来，讨论杰克·多西在Block公司裁员4000人，然后利用剩余时间讨论引发市场抛售的Citrini研究报告。

We're gonna come back after this, and we're gonna talk about Jack Dorsey laying off 4,000, at Block, and then we're gonna talk about the Citrini research paper in the time we have left that caused this sell off in the market.

广告后马上回来。

We'll be back right after this.

我们又回来了，这里是Big Technology Podcast周五特辑。

And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast Friday edition.

好的。

Alright.

新闻称，杰克·多西来自SFgate。

So, the news is that Jack Dorsey is from SFgate.

杰克·多西正在Block公司裁员4000人，并表示未来一年内其他人也会效仿。

Jack Dorsey is laying off 4,000 at Blok and saying others will do the same within the next year.

所以，裁员规模固然巨大，但真正的头条在于，杰克·多西表示，人工智能已经帮助我们变得如此高效，以至于我们能够裁掉一半员工，同时保持同样的生产力。

So it's not that, the size of the layoff is massive, which it is, but the the real headline here is that Jack Dorsey has said AI has become, has helped us become so efficient that we're able to lay off half the company and be as productive.

顺便说一句，这种趋势也会波及其他公司。

And by the way, this is coming for others as well.

你对此怎么看，拉詹？

What do you think about that, Ranjan?

这个消息让我震惊。

This one killed me.

我得说一下。

I gotta say.

我喜欢，但我在这里有两种想法。

I like and there's I I have two kind of minds here.

一方面，就像我们今天一直在讨论的，在我看来，一切都属于沟通和营销。

One is and again, as we've been discussing today, like, everything is comms and marketing in my mind.

而且，这真的感觉像是，Block的收入增长一直在放缓，盈利能力也在下降。

And, like, it really just feels like, again, blocks revenue has been revenue growth has been slowing profitability.

2025年并不是一个糟糕的年份，但毫无疑问，这家公司曾在疫情期间经历爆炸式增长，如今却在放缓。

2025 was not it it wasn't a bad year, but it's certainly, like, they were a company that saw incredible growth during COVID, and it's been slowing.

所以，股价已经下跌了75%。

So, like, the stock's down 75%.

总体来说，业务并不理想。

It's it's overall, business is not great.

所以把这归咎于AI让我有点不舒服。

So to say it's AI kinda bothers me.

这感觉像是在逃避，而不是直面问题。

It feels like a cop out versus, listen.

很多大型科技公司都有点臃肿。

Like, a lot of big tech were were a little bloated.

我们雇人太多了。

We overhired.

我们只是想适度地调整一下业务规模。

We're just trying to rightsize the business a little bit.

对我来说，这就是本质。

Like, to me, that's what this is.

我说这些是因为我真心相信，劳动力将会被重塑，行业里会出现一些问题和动荡，但我觉得这一次，杰克只是在裁员时随便找了个‘AI’的借口。

And and, I'm saying that as someone who genuinely believes workforces are gonna get transformed and there's gonna be some problems and, like, dislocation in in the industry, I felt this one was just kinda Jack being like AI when he has to lay off a bunch of people.

对。

Right.

我认为我们应该在这里提供一些背景信息。

And I think we should give the context here.

对吧？

Right?

所以Block是盈利的。

So Block is profitable.

这是一家盈利的公司正在采取这些举措。

It's a profitable company making these moves.

而且在消息公布后，它的股价今天仍上涨了14%。

And still, it's up 14% today after the news.

所以关于这一点，我想说一下。

So here's what I'll say about it.

这并不是Block今年第一次裁员。

This is not the first time that Block has been doing layoffs this year.

Block在今年二月初进行了裁员。

Block did layoffs earlier in February.

这是《连线》杂志在杰克·多西的Block公司二月初裁撤数百名员工后发布的报道。

This is from Wired after hundreds of workers were laid off in early February from Jack Dorsey's Block.

公司中一些留下的员工表示，内部文化已经恶化到如此地步：绩效焦虑四处蔓延，必须使用生成式AI，整体士气正在迅速下滑。

Some of the people remaining at the company say the internal culture has devolved to a point where it's where performance anxiety is running running rampant, using generative AI is required, and overall morale is rapidly deteriorating.

听好了。

Listen to this.

目前，黑人员工被要求每周给多西发送一封更新邮件，而他则利用生成式AI来汇总数千封这样的信息。

Black employees are currently expected to send an update email to Dorsey every week, who then uses generative AI to summarize the thousands of messages.

我不确定这是否是这项技术最有效的用途，而且我不太想在这里做这个论点，但杰克是不是抓住了什么关键点？我们会不会看到更多这样的情况？

I don't know if this is the most effective use of the technology and I hate to make the argument here, but is Jack on to something and are we gonna see more of this?

因为一个CEO能够每周收到所有员工——成千上万员工——的邮件，把它们输入生成式AI引擎，从而感知公司内部的动态，他的管理层也可以对他们的大量下属做同样的事，从而变得更高效。

Because the idea that a CEO could get a weekly, email from all their employees, thousands of employees, throw them into a generative AI engine, get a feel of what's going on in the company, that his reports can do the same with their, legions of employees and become more effective through that.

这种技术的发展方向，是不是正朝着这个方向前进？

Is that is that kind of where this technology is heading?

我的意思是，我读到这个的时候觉得挺有意思的。

I mean, it was interesting when I read that.

一方面，对我来说，这实际上是个错误的流程。

Like, on one hand, to me, that actually would be, like, the wrong process.

因为如果你要求每个人每周都向你汇报自己和他们所做的工作，以此作为了解公司现状的基础，那结果肯定会偏向正面。

Because if you're asking everyone to give you essentially sell themselves and the work they're doing on a weekly basis and using that as your, like, foundation for understanding the state of your company, it's gonna be biased positive.

这其实不太好，因为每个人都会说，我做了了不起的事情。

Like, that's not actually good because everyone's gonna be like, oh, did amazing things.

一切都很好。

Everything is great.

然后你把它们汇总起来，杰克就坐在那里，以为一切都很好。

And then you summarize it, and Jack's just sitting there thinking everything's great.

所以我觉得，但有趣的是，你居然把这当成负面的。

So I think but but I it's funny that to me that you took that as a negative.

因为再次说，这种新方式确实挺酷的，你现在能以以前无法想象的方式大规模地进行管理。

Because, again, like, it is kinda you don't think it's cool at all, the idea that now you can kind of manage in different ways, that you can act at scale that never would have thought possible before.

真正获得一种部分真实的视角，至少比起让一群人花一个月时间做报告，然后你在全员大会或董事会会议上听取他们的更新，这种方式能让你获得更实时的反馈。

Really getting a view that's semi true, or at least versus having a bunch of people spend a month doing a report that you're gonna have like an all hands meeting or a board meeting where they update you, that you can actually have more real time feedback like that.

你不喜欢

You don't like

我不认为我在批评这一点。

I don't think I'm criticizing that.

我想告诉你一件事。

I think it let me tell you this.

我认为，直觉上，我是站在员工这一边的。

I I think instinctively, I, you know, I'm on the side of workers here.

我觉得这有点令人反感，CEO 不是直接和他们交流，而是让 AI 总结他们、总结他们的笔记，并迫使他们写这些笔记。

I think it kinda it's kind of gross that CEO is instead of talking with them, having AI summarize them, summarize their notes and making them write these notes.

我的意思是，想想你得写多少东西，然后这些内容会被输入进去。

I mean, just think about how much work you have to write and that gets fed in.

你很可能是在用 AI 辅助写作。

You're probably you're probably writing with AI.

你很可能

You're probably

几乎可以肯定你的代理正在和杰克的代理交流，这就是正在发生的事，但

almost certainly using a your agent is talking to Jack's agent is what's happening But

最终，你知道，我得放下这种想法。

ultimately, you know, I have to I think I have to get past that.

实际上，如果我经营一家这么大的公司，我会这么做。

I actually think that if I was running a company of that size, I would do this.

我真的认为，这确实是掌握公司动态的好方法。

I I really think it is a great way to stay on top of a of a company, actually.

我不认为这让公司效率提高了50%，而且我读到的来自《旧金山纪事报》的员工评论很自然——他们不喜欢强制使用AI，也不满意有一半员工离职。

I don't think it makes the company 50% more efficient, and it's, like, natural to get these quotes that I read from SF Gate from employees who just don't like the mandating of AI and also aren't happy that half the company is leaving.

但真相可能介于两者之间。

But maybe the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

我认为我们应该重点关注杰克给大家的警告，他说，你知道，我们还处于早期阶段，我会坦诚相告，我也期待其他人同样如此。

And I think we should really focus on the, on the warning, so to speak, that Jack gave to everybody else saying that, you know, I just think we're early and I'm gonna be honest about it, and I expect many others to do the same thing.

我收到了一份来自曾经与杰克共事过的人的笔记，这条被封锁的消息将会产生连锁反应。

As I got this note from somebody who's worked with Jack in the past, this blocked news is gonna cascade hard.

杰克向科技界乃至更广泛领域的每一位首席执行官提出了一个问题：你们是否在承载着可以削减的冗余负担？

Jack just put the question to every CEO in tech, and maybe beyond, of whether they are carrying dead weight that could be shed.

如果又有几家科技公司采取如此大规模的行动——我们知道它们一定会——那么这种趋势蔓延的可能性将大大增加。

If a few more tech companies pull a move moves of this magnitude, and we know they will, then the odds of it crossing over increase tremendously.

我认为这听起来很合理，很可能会有许多科技公司的首席执行官表示，顺便说一句，他们知道杰克是能管理一家臃肿公司的。

I I would say it sounds right, and probably we're gonna have many tech companies, CEOs, saying and by the way, they they know that Jack can run a bloated company.

我的意思是，看看推特发生了什么。

I mean, look at what happened with Twitter.

但话说回来，也许我们不必裁掉50%，但能不能先裁掉20%？

But saying, you know, maybe we don't have to do 50, but can we do 20?

这有点令人害怕。

It's a little bit scary.

我觉得这确实吓人，但当初这些公司在短时间内招聘人数激增了100%甚至200%，基于疫情时期被夸大的营收和增长数据时，我们可没这么抱怨过。

I think it's scary, but when the hiring at these companies was up by a 100% or 200% in a condensed amount of time based off of, like, extrapolated revenue and growth numbers from COVID, we weren't all complaining.

我觉得，与其说我是愤世嫉俗，不如说我其实也不太确定。

I think, like I I I think I'm almost cynical isn't quite the right word, but, like, I don't know.

我认识很多科技公司的员工，他们拿很多钱，却没做多少工作。

I I know a lot of people at a lot of tech companies that get a lot of money for not a lot of work.

过去五到七年里，这种情况变得越来越普遍。

It's, like, it's become the case increasingly more so over the last five years, seven years.

像谷歌和Facebook这样的公司，有一段时间确实如此。

The Googles and the Facebooks for a while, I would say.

但某个经济领域在过去的十年或十五年里成为了最有价值的领域，结果变得臃肿不堪。

But, like, like, there there is like, it's one sector of the economy that became the most valuable sector of the economy for a fifteen year period or whatever it is, ten year period, and it became bloated.

现在，对我来说，AI正在改变的，是过去十年我们赋予软件和技术领域的工作价值，已经不再相同了。

And now, like, to me, AI, what it's doing, it's it's just kind of like the the value of work in software and technology that we had assigned to it over the last decade is not the same.

这种现象在许多其他行业也发生过，总会带来动荡。

And that's happened to many, many other industries over time, and it it causes disruption.

但对我来说，这更像是自然的商业周期，而不是什么末日景象，我并不太悲观。

But to me, that's almost like natural business cycle rather than again, I'm like not too doomer about it.

也许这目光短浅，但就像其他曾经发生过的转变一样，也没那么不同。

Maybe that's shortsighted, but like, it's not that different than other shifts that have happened over time.

是的。

Yeah.

比如，你可以把如今两个花费75%精力的邮件岗位，用生成式AI压缩成一个邮件岗位。

Like, I guess you could you could condense, like, two, you know, 75% effort email jobs today into one email job if you have generative AI.

但我也认为，就我们现在的对话而言，我俩都不会忽视一个事实：这些岗位上都是真实的人，这种情况真的很糟糕。

But, like, I also think, you know, as we have this conversation, I don't think either of us are going to discount, like, the fact that there's real people in these jobs and this really sucks.

尤其是现在我们正处于不招聘也不裁员的时期，每当像Block这样的公司裁员一人，对那个人来说都是一场灾难，我不想忽略这一点。

And, you know, especially now we're, like, in a no hire, no fire time period, that for every person that gets laid off at a place like Block, it's just like, it's a it's a disaster in each one of those cases, and I don't wanna, you know, leave that out.

没错。

No.

没错。

No.

这正是所有这些问题的症结所在。

That's that's the problem about all this.

我是说，我不想低估。

It's like, I don't want to shortchange.

我的意思是，被裁员真的很糟，没错。

I mean, getting laid off sucks and, like Yep.

这真的很令人难过，但另一方面，Metallica 和 Benson Boone 真的需要在 Dreamforce 演出吗？这究竟是一个健康行业的标志，还是一个可能有点疲软的行业的表现？

It is just it it's it's it's sad, but it's also like, does Metallica and Benson Boone need to play Dreamforce, and is that, like, the sign of a healthy industry or an industry that might be getting a bit soft?

我问你。

I ask you.

Benson Boone，或者其中之一，Metallica 或 Benson Boone。

Benson Boone and just one of them, Metallica or Benson Boone.

但是

But

听好了。

Look.

只要保留 Metallica 就行。

As long as keep Metallica.

对吧？

Right?

我们得保留Metallica。

We gotta keep Metallica.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我其实更希望他们不要去参加Dreamforce，这总是让我感到难过。

I I'd rather that always kinda saddens me that they went that they're playing a dream force.

Benson Boone

Benson Boone

是的。

Yeah.

让他上台，别让Metallica上。

Put him up there, not Metallica.

这会很尴尬。

This is gonna be embarrassing.

我根本不知道Benson Boone是谁。

I don't even know who Benson Boone is.

他就是那个在格莱美上翻跟头的人吗？

He's a guy who he did the flip at the Grammys now?

不是吗？

No?

我完全不知道他是谁。

No idea who that is.

好吧。

Alright.

所以也许你把他删了。

So maybe you cut him.

也许你可以留下他，同时保留Ben。

Maybe you bring keep him and you you Keep Ben.

留下Metallica的Ben，然后保留你的员工。

From Metallica and then keep your employees.

这可能是我的偏好。

That would be my preference maybe.

我会为你创建一个代理，帮你更好地跟上流行文化，亚历克斯。

Like, I'm gonna create an agent for you to keep up better with pop culture, Alex.

嗯，我很乐意。

Well, I would like that.

是的。

Yeah.

我得过滤那个代理发来的邮件，太多了。

I would not I would have to put that filter that agent's emails, just too much.

但顺便说一下，真正的问题在于，如果每家公司都——我不知道，其实我不觉得杰克是对的。

But so but by the way, so so here's where this becomes a real problem, is if every company I don't know, I actually don't think Jack is right.

我们一会儿再谈这个，但即使有这些AI工具，软件工程的就业人数也在迅速增长，这很有趣。

We're gonna talk about it in a moment, but, even with these AI tools, the, software engineering employment numbers are going up fairly quickly, which is fascinating.

但如果杰克是对的——假设他没错，那情况可能会很糟糕。

But if Jack is right, in the case that he is, that could be rough.

我的意思是，你想想每个公司都出来裁员，我们已经看到亚马逊大规模裁员了。

I mean, you think about every company coming out and doing mean, we've seen Amazon do these big layoffs.

对吧？

Right?

每个公司都出来裁掉20%的员工。

Like, every company comes out and does a 20% layoff.

这确实很艰难。

That is, that's tough.

如果你是科技行业的从业者，这真的很艰难。

That's tough if you're a tech worker.

但过去十到十五年，科技行业的人赚的钱相对于其他所有行业来说太多了，我觉得这在政治上会成为一个非常有趣的问题——这种裁员正在冲击一个规模大幅扩张但占整体就业比例仍然很小的行业。

But the amount of money everyone in tech has made relative to every other industry over the last ten to fifteen years, like, think that that's gonna be actually one of the more interesting things politically how this all plays out, I think, is that it's targeting this is causing a disruption in a sector that got a lot bigger, but it's still a small percentage of the overall kind of, like, employment in the economy.

所以，你认为人们会对此产生强烈反应或激烈抗议吗？还是说，就像我作为一个科技行业从业者要说的那样，由于这些公司长期以来一直如此运作，我很难为这件事感到特别难过。

So do do you think people will be as strongly reacting or up in arms around this, or it's gonna kinda be like and, again, I as someone who works in tech, I I'm saying this, that, like, it's just it it it's harder for me to be, like, that saddened by it given just how these companies have been able to operate for a long time.

我的意思是，如果你问我科技从业者是否会获得全国范围的同情，我不这么认为。

I mean, if if you're asking me whether there's gonna be an outpouring of national sympathy for tech workers, I don't believe so.

我的意思是，别忘了，这是一个许多人看到与自己社会经济地位不同的人失去房屋时反而庆祝帕利塞德斯火灾的国家。

I mean, this is remember, this is a country where many people celebrated the Palisades fire when they saw that there were people in a different socioeconomic status than them that lost their houses.

所以，至少目前我觉得我们并不是一个充满同理心的国家。

So I don't really feel like we're a nation of empathy right now at least.

我们本该是的，但我们不是。

We should be, but but we're not.

好吧。

Alright.

说到连锁危机，我们来谈谈这个。

Speaking of cascading crises, let's end with this.

我敢肯定你看过那封关于2028年全球情报危机的Citrini信件。

I'm sure you saw this Citrini letter talked about the twenty twenty eight global intelligence crises.

我会尽量把它概括一下。

I'll try to summarize it as best as I can.

基本上，这家研究公司——可能做空了，也可能没有，我不确定，但有人猜测他们做了空头——并且一些公司因为这封信股价暴跌，他们分析了如果生成式AI成功会怎样。

Basically, this research firm who may or may not have shorts, I don't know a 100%, but it's been speculated they do, and some of the companies that have tanked because of this letter, basically looked at what happened if Generator AI works.

他们写道，早在一开始就应该清楚，一个位于北达科他州的单张GPU生成了原本归功于曼哈顿中城1万名白领员工的成果，这更像是一场经济大流行，而非经济救星。

They write, it should have been clear all along that a single GPU in North Dakota generating the output previously, attributed to 10,000 white collar workers in Midtown Manhattan is more economic pandemic than economic panacea.

所以，他们基本上是在说，看看接下来会发生什么。

So, basically, they say, look what's gonna happen.

将会出现一个人类智能替代的恶性循环，人们会通过自动化取代工作岗位。

There's going to be a human intelligent displacement spiral where people will automate jobs away.

也许这就是那份杰克备忘录最终可能走向的糟糕情景。

Maybe this is kind of where that Jack memo, can can actually end up in the bad scenario.

对吧？

Right?

因为那样一来，人们就无法支付房贷了。

Because then you have people with their mortgages, they can't pay them.

股市下跌。

Stocks go down.

而我们的经济中有很大一部分，都建立在避免麻烦、不愿取消某些服务、不争议某些费用的基础上。

And then, you know, there's so much of, of our many large parts of our economy that are based off of, wanting to avoid annoyance, not wanting to cancel certain things, and not disputing certain fees.

这个代理出去后，就会取消这些服务并取消那些费用，突然间，消费者支出下降，经济增长放缓，而依赖这一切的私募股权就开始燃起大火。

The agent goes goes out and, you know, cancels these things and and takes down those fees, and then, all of a sudden consumer spending is down, growth is down, and private equity that depends on all this starts to go up in in flames.

他们甚至说，比如你可以自己开发配送应用，然后这些被取代的白领们就会去从事蓝领工作，而经济中根本就不再有岗位留下了。

And they even these these at you know, you can build your own delivery apps, for instance, and then all these displaced, white and so those businesses go away, and all these displaced white collar workers end up taking blue collar jobs, and there's just no, jobs left in the economy.

我觉得我已经把重点提炼出来了。

I think I boiled it down.

这大概就是他们的论点。

That's kind of the argument.

我想从我的语气中你就能听出来，我并不相信他们是对的。

I think you can tell by the tone of my voice, I'm not I'm not convinced that they're right here.

你对此有什么反应？

What was your reaction?

我对这篇文章的实际内容的反应，和我对它引发股市抛售的反应，是两回事。

So my reaction to the actual content of the piece, and then there's my reaction to, like, actually kind of, like, it causing a stock market sell off are two different things.

我觉得我不确定。

I think I don't know.

这是一篇很好的文章，写得很有意思。

I it was a good piece of it was, like, an interesting piece of writing.

它提出了这些问题，我觉得它试图为这种想法赋予某种价值，比如，如果我们被订阅制绑住了，就会忘记去想象。

It was, like like and it is it raises these kind of questions I thought were, like, trying to assign kind of, like, value to the idea like, if we're locked into subscriptions, we forget about like, imagine.

如果我告诉你，想象有一个代理能追踪你的Netflix、Disney+、Hulu，以及你对所有这些服务的使用情况，然后自动取消那些你没用的服务，那会怎么样？

If I if I tell you imagine you have an agent that is actually able to track your Netflix, Disney plus, Hulu, all of your utilization of those services, and then the ones you're not using, it goes and cancels them for you.

听起来挺不错的。

Like, that sounds pretty good.

对吧？

Right?

哦，我太想要这样的服务了。

Oh, I would love that.

是的。

Yeah.

但是

But

论点是这将引发连锁的经济问题。

the argument is that that will cause cascading economic problems.

但但但如果是这样，而这正是美国经济的基础，那对我来说比实际的解体更令人恐惧。

But but but this is where if that is the foundation of The US economy, that's the more terrifying part to me than the actual unwinding of it, if that's the case.

所以我认为这部分是，我不确定。

So I think that part of it is I I don't know.

这很有趣，就像它引发的那些问题一样。

It was it was interesting, just like the kind of questions it raised.

我看到很多争论，比如以DoorDash为例。

There's a lot of, like I saw arguments over, like, it using DoorDash as an as an example.

我实际上同意这个观点，虽然像《边缘》的读者们所知，我并不是DoorDash的忠实粉丝，但我认为在任何市场中，它都是最难被取代的。

And I actually do agree with the idea that that was, like and as not the biggest fan of DoorDash as readers of margins will know, I do think they're gonna be the hardest to displace out of any given it's a marketplace.

它涉及一些实体劳动的成分。

There's, like, physical labor elements of it.

所以我觉得这部分，确实存在明显的弱点。

So so I thought that part like, there's definitely weaknesses in it.

对我来说，这种可能引发连锁向下螺旋的情况，我真的觉得我不确定。

To me, the idea of some kind of, like, cascading potential just downward spiral here, I do think I don't know.

它呈现了一个相当连贯、有趣的叙事，实际上讲了一个好故事。

It it presented a pretty, like, interesting, consistent narrative that actually told a good story.

所以我理解它为什么会产生这样的影响。

So I see why it had the impact it did.

但我真的不确定。

But I don't know.

我对这个问题的个人观点是，我认为它实际上揭示了一个更有趣的问题：当前股市的状态，许多公司的估值长期朝同一个方向走，我认为这更多是暴露了人们对估值普遍的不安和担忧，而不是像AI会摧毁社会那样的说法。

My my hot take on this one is I think it raised actually a more interesting issue is that, again, the state of the current stock market, the valuations of a lot of companies have gone in the same direction for a very long time, and I think it is more unmasking just general unease and worries about valuations as opposed to it's like AI is gonna destroy society.

人们再次把它当作一个借口，去盲目抛售那些多年来账面上被大幅抬高的资产，但你就是感觉它们并没有那么值钱。

And people, again, it's an excuse to just kinda knee jerk sell things that you're sitting there on paper have just been marked up insanely over the last number of years, but you you just you don't feel it's actually value that valuable.

这就是我对此的理解。

That's kinda how I am reading it.

我喜欢这个观点。

I like that take.

我很喜欢这个观点。

I like that take a lot.

我想我们可能有点太一致了。

I think we're agreeing with each other a little too much then.

是的。

Yeah.

我知道。

I know.

因为这对我来说简直太贴切了。

Because that that feels, spot on to me.

而且，你知道，确实如此。

And, you know, it is this.

这周有人在CNBC问我类似的问题，我不得不引用《大事正在发生》那篇论文。

It's I was asked about version of this on CNBC this week, and I had to cite the something big is happening paper.

我觉得这正是它的本质。

I think this is kind of what it is.

有一种观点认为，正在发生一些重大的变化，事实上确实如此，但问题在于这种变化的规模究竟有多大，而人们本能地急于宣称：这些技术会夺走我们的工作、摧毁我们的经济。

There is this belief that something big is happening, it is, in a way, question is what the magnitude is, and there's this instinctive race to go and say, you know, it's gonna take our jobs and destroy our economy.

我对那篇论文唯一的问题是，它完全缺乏想象力。

The one issue that I had with that paper, and this is sort of my core issue, is it just wasn't imaginative at all.

它根本没有考虑到，那些被取代的人也有自己的梦想，而这些工具的出现，或许能帮助他们去实现新的追求，对吧？

It didn't think that somebody who's displaced has, like, any dreams of their own that they might go build now that these tools exist, right?

而且，人们觉得经济已经停滞不前。

And that the sort of felt the economy is stagnant.

我真心相信，如果这些工具真能如你所想的那样发挥作用，那么它们根本不会造成大规模的经济性失业。

I really believe that, like, if these tools work the way that you think that they're gonna work, then, you know, they're they're just not gonna cause vast economic displacement.

这是我特别反感的一句话。

Here's this is my this is the line that I really hated.

在各个方面，人工智能都超出了预期，而市场也围绕着人工智能展开，唯一的问题是经济没有跟上。

In every way AI was exceeding expectations and the market was AI, the only problem was the economy was not.

我只是觉得，如果人工智能真的超越了所有预期，那么经济将会因为人工智能而被激活，让人们比以往任何时候都能获得更大的成长。

I I just think that, like, you know, if if the AI exceeds all expectations, then the economy is gonna become, AI and and enable people to grow much more than they have previously.

所以经济将由AI驱动，经济将会增长。

And and so the economy will be AI, and the economy will grow.

这只是我的观点。

That's just my perspective.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道吗？

I do you know what?

我看到过一个数据，关于专业摄影师的数量，当时人们担心，一旦数码相机和手机摄像头出现，就会摧毁整个行业。

I I saw this stat around the number of professional photographers where there was worry that, like, once, like, first digital cameras and then phone cameras came out that it would come and destroy all the entire industry.

我想这就是杰文斯悖论在发挥作用。

I mean, I guess this is Jevan's paradox in action.

实际上，拍摄照片的门槛降低，反而在摄影相关产业中创造了巨大的新需求。

Whereas, like, actually, the, like, increase in access to taking photos created massive new demand in industries around photography.

这让我很好地理解了可能发生的事情。

And, like, it was actually this nice little encapsulation I felt around, like, what can happen?

突然间，现在每个人都需要专业水准的照片，而过去你可能根本不会太在意。

Like, suddenly, now everyone needs professional quality photos, or in the past, you wouldn't have cared as much.

因为你能在手机上拍照，这才催生了社交媒体。

And because you could take photos on your phone, it created social media.

不管这会对社会产生什么影响，那是另一个问题了。

And, like like, it the there is whatever that means for society, that's another question.

但确实有这样一个观点，或者说，这在过去二十年里，为我们提供了一个非常清晰的例证：原本看似纯粹的灾难，实际上却以一种积极而意想不到的方式转变了？

But, like, there there's that argument that or it it was, like, a really nice simple picture of in the last twenty years of our our lifetime, seeing something that could have been pure doom actually turning into something, like, in a positive unexpected way?

就是这样。

That's it.

我的意思是，如果你认为一切事物都是静止不变的，人们不想做新事情、不想成长，或者对现状感到满足，那你就会相信西特里尼的论文。

I mean, if you think that everything is static and that people don't wanna do new things or grow or they're satisfied with whatever they're doing, then you believe the Citrini paper.

如果你不这么认为，如果你相信经济增长、经济在变化，人们会找到新的事情去做，那你就不会相信它。

If you don't, if you believe that there's growth and the economy changes and people find new things to do, then you don't believe it.

事实上，这是来自西岱尔的反驳：Indeed 上发布的软件开发岗位数量，远远超过了整体职位发布量的百分比增长。

And in fact, this is from Citadel which wrote a rebuttal: the number of software developer jobs being posted on Indeed is far outpacing the total number of, job posting in terms of overall, in terms of percentage growth.

这说明了一切你需要知道的。

So that says everything you need to know.

如果AI现在能比这么多人写代码都好，那为什么软件工程岗位反而增长得更快呢？

If AI AI is able to code much better than so many people now, why are software engineering jobs, you know, outpacing the rest?

当你有了这些工具，能够更高效地工作时，你就能做以前做不到的事情。

It's just that when you have these tools and you're able to be more productive, you're able to do the things that you couldn't do previously.

所以你自然想去做这些事，不会因为有了这些工具就缩成一根玉米棒，说‘我干完了’。

And so you wanna do them, And you don't shrink into a corncob and say I'm done because of these things.

这就是为什么像Citrini这样的论文让我恼火，它们根本缺乏想象力，对世界如何运转的理解也不现实，只会制造恐惧，而恐惧能带来点击量。

And that's why these papers like this, the Citrini paper annoy me, because they just don't have any imaginative thought and they're not realistic about the world work the way the world works, and they they, you know, scare people and the fear translates into clicks.

天啊，我现在对它们的批评可能有点严厉，但我还是坚持这么说，因为在我看来，这简直是错误至极的做法。

And, God, I guess I'm being very harsh on them right now, but I'll I'll I'll keep with it, like, just seems to me to be the worst way to do it.

我认为更糟糕的做法是，认为股市现在如此脆弱，以至于一篇AI科幻类的想象论文就能引发抛售——这简直让人难以置信。

And I think the other worst way to do things is the idea that the stock market is so brittle right now that an AI sci fi imaginative paper can cause a sell off is still get a handle, everybody.

拜托，股市，清醒点吧。

Come on come on, stock market.

没关系。

It's okay.

就是，对。

Just Yeah.

在这儿喘口气吧。

Take a take a breather here.

我的意思是，如果真有人不该对股市感到恐慌，那肯定是我们，毕竟市场对任何一点消息都反应得相当冷静。

I mean, if anyone shouldn't be freaking out at the stock market, we know that the market reacts so coolly to any to any bit of stuff.

放松点，该死的。

Relax, goddamn it.

别搞什么Substack。

Just not a substack.

别搞什么Substack。

Not a substack.

别他娘的搞Substack。

Not a freaking substack.

显然，Substack已经出局了。

Obviously, substack was out.

我会说，我们推动了市场。

I'd be like, we moved the market.

这就是你想推动市场的方式吗？

It's like, is this the way you wanna move the market?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我不这么认为。

I don't think so.

好吧。

Alright.

我们收拾一下回家吧，冷静一下，下周再回来，希望到时候世界还在。

Let's pack it up and go home, and we'll we'll cool off and come back next week, and hopefully, the world will still be standing.

这听起来是个好计划吗？

Does that sound like a good plan?

我希望是这样。

I think I hope so.

下周见。

I'll see you next week.

好的。

Alright.

下周见。

See you next week.

感谢大家收听，我们下次再见，欢迎收听《大科技播客》。

Thank you everyone for listening, and we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.