Big Technology Podcast - 蒂姆·库克之后的苹果,OpenAI 的新 Mojo,Meta 的内部追踪闹剧 封面

蒂姆·库克之后的苹果,OpenAI 的新 Mojo,Meta 的内部追踪闹剧

Apple After Tim Cook, OpenAI’s New Mojo, Meta’s Internal Tracking Escapade

本集简介

Margins 的 Ranjan Roy 回归,与我们一起进行每周最新科技新闻讨论。本期涵盖:1)即将上任的苹果 CEO 约翰·特努斯面临的最大挑战;2)苹果的员工流失率是否是一件好事?3)特努斯将推向市场的产品;4)苹果的桌面机器人究竟是怎么回事?5)OpenAI 正在以不同的方式沟通;6)TBPN 是否有助于 OpenAI 的消息传递?7)Anthropic 的 Mythos 发布与 OpenAI 的 Spud 发布对比;8)Meta 的最新裁员;9)Meta 追踪员工键盘输入;10)Meta 的追踪行为是否是强化学习策略?11)Ranjan 关于“Streamflation”(流膨胀)的吐槽。 --- 喜欢《Big Technology Podcast》吗?请在您选择的播客应用中为我们打五星好评 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐。 想获得 Big Technology 在 Substack + Discord 上的折扣吗?首年可享 25% 优惠:https://www.bigtechnology.com/subscribe?coupon=0843016b 了解更多广告选择信息。请访问 megaphone.fm/adchoices

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蒂姆·库克之后,苹果会变成什么样?

What does Apple look like after Tim Cook?

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我们提前看看新任CEO约翰·特努斯面临的机遇和挑战。

We have a preview of new CEO John Ternus' opportunity and challenges.

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OpenAI 似乎重新找回了状态,而Meta的员工现在正参与一个挺怪的AI追踪实验。

OpenAI seems to be getting its mojo back, and Meta employees are now part of a weird AI tracking experiment.

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这些内容马上为您带来。

That's coming up right after this.

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本集由ServiceNow冠名赞助。

This episode is brought to you by ServiceNow.

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想看企业级AI到底往哪儿走?2026年这场大会你一定不能错过。

If you wanna see where enterprise AI is actually headed, knowledge twenty twenty six is the place to be.

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这是ServiceNow的年度大会,五月在拉斯维加斯举行,成千上万的企业和科技领袖都会齐聚一堂。

It's ServiceNow's annual conference, May in Las Vegas, where thousands of business and tech leaders come together.

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你会看到ServiceNow董事长兼CEO比尔·麦克德莫特的主题演讲,听到真实企业如何大规模应用AI的案例,还有重磅合作官宣——把AI的雄心变成实实在在的业务成果。

Expect headline keynotes from ServiceNow chairman and CEO Bill McDermott, real stories from companies running AI at scale, and major partnership announcements turning AI ambition into actual business results.

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我会亲自到场,和业内最有影响力的人面对面聊聊,然后把这些对话带回来,分享给你们《大科技》节目。

I'll be there in person sitting down with some of the most influential voices in the space, and we'll be bringing those conversations back to you here on big technology.

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欢迎收听《大科技》播客周五版,我们一如既往地用冷静、有深度的方式拆解最新动态。

Welcome to big technology podcast, Friday edition, where we break down the news in our traditional cool headed and nuanced format.

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今天这期节目内容特别丰富,绝对值得一看。

We have a great show for you today.

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今天要聊的实在太多了。

A lot to cover.

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咱们先聊聊新任苹果CEO约翰·特尔努斯接下来会面临什么。

We're gonna talk about what's ahead for incoming Apple CEO, John Ternus.

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另外,OpenAI的沟通好像有起色了,还有Meta员工的键盘输入和屏幕截图正被用来训练下一代AI——这事我们也得好好说道说道。

We're also gonna talk about, what seems to be an improvement of messaging for OpenAI, and we'll also discuss Meta employees getting their keystrokes tracked with screenshots that may be training the next generation of AI.

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今天内容这么多,老朋友、Margins的Ranjan Roy也和我们一起来了。

So a lot to cover today, and we are joined as always by Ranjan Roy of Margins.

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Ranjan,好久不见,真高兴你来了。

Ranjan, great to see you.

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我这么激动是不是有点过头了?新任苹果CEO约翰·特努斯真能把Siri给救回来?

Should I be this excited because this new Apple CEO, John Ternus, is gonna fix Siri?

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这周我确实有点兴奋,脑子里就想着这事儿。

I am a little bit excited this week, and that's all I'm thinking about.

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不过咱们还是得聊聊这个。

But we're gonna have to talk about this.

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别的我都不在乎,就冲这重磅消息,我只关心这一件事儿。

And that's all that's the only thing I care about about this monumental announcement.

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这周我们录播客的时候,我和乔安娜·斯特恩正录着呢,突然收到消息说特努斯要接任CEO,库克要退了。

So when we were recording a podcast this week, Joanna Stern and I, I had the message come through mid podcast, that Ternus was going be the new CEO and cook was stepping down.

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我们就直接放出来了。

And we put it out there.

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结果有人就问:你们怎么老盯着AI不放?

And some people were just like, why are you focusing on the AI?

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别老谈什么AI了行不行?

Like, stop focusing on on the AI stuff.

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这根本不重要。

It doesn't matter.

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我对这些人的看法完全不同意。

And I strongly disagree with these people.

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我觉得这很重要。

I think it does matter.

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约翰·特努斯也这么认为。

And so does John Ternus.

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接下来我们会聊聊他作为CEO预计将推出的一系列产品。

And we're gonna get into after this a handful of products that he is expected to release as CEO.

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别走开,精彩马上来。

So stay tuned for that.

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但在那之前,根据彭博社的马克·古尔曼的说法,他面临一个非常棘手的挑战。

But first, very interesting challenge awaits him according to Mark Gurman of Bloomberg.

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古尔曼说,苹果的新CEO得想办法留住核心人才。

Gurman says Apple's new CEO will need to stave off exodus of top talent.

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经过多年相对平稳的时期,公司最近却接连出现高管和普通工程师的离职潮。

After years of relative calm, the company has suffered a wave of recent departures both among c suite executives and rank and file engineers.

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接替蒂姆·库克今年九月上任的特尔努斯,得赶紧稳住人心。

It's up to Ternus who succeeds Tim Cook in September to stabilize the workforce.

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天哪,看完这事儿真是让人唏嘘。

I mean, goodness gracious going through this, this story.

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太多人要么走了,要么已经在考虑走了。

There's so many people that have left or considered leaving.

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负责Vision Pro、现在在搞Siri的迈克·洛克威尔,也动过离职的念头。

Mike Rockwell, who created Vision Pro and is working on Siri, has considered leaving.

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他对要向新上司克雷格·费德里吉汇报感到犹豫。

He has reservations about reporting to his new boss, Craig Federighi.

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顺便说一句,克雷格·费德里吉自己可能也挺不爽的——CEO的位置没轮到他。

By the way, Craig Federighi might not be happy that he didn't get the CEO job.

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对了,我之前就跟你们说过,当年杰夫·威廉姆斯走的时候,大家都知道他是苹果的接班人,是COO,他一走,我就猜蒂姆·库克要退了,结果真就这么发生了——因为库克根本没打算让他接班,选的是特尔努斯。

By the way, I told you all, I I'm pretty sure when Jeff Williams left, the, you know, supposed heir apparent of Apple, the COO, when he left, it meant that Tim Cook was leaving, and lo and behold, that's what happened because he wasn't the pick, and Ternus was the pick.

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故事还有更多内容。

Here's more from the story.

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包括营销主管格雷格、零售主管黛德丽·奥布莱恩、苹果商店主管菲尔·席勒,以及服务负责人埃德·Q在内的几位高管,都在公司待了将近四十年。

Several leaders, including marketing chief Greg, retail head, Deidre O'Brien, Apple, store head, Apple store head, Phil Schiller, and service leader, Ed Q, are approaching four decades at the company.

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还有去年十二月《财富》杂志的一篇文章,说去年年底公司离职潮简直太严重了。

There's also a Fortune article from December that shows that there's, like, a whole heck of a lot of turnover at the end of the year last year.

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挺有意思的。

Interesting.

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我问你个问题。

I will ask you this.

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对特伦斯来说,这到底是挑战还是机会?因为苹果整个高层团队好像都要被清空了——要么是他们都觉得自己该当CEO,现在心有不甘,要么就是……

Is it a challenge or an opportunity for Ternus that the seemingly the entire, know, senior suite of Apple may just kinda sweep out either because they're not they're all they all felt they might get the CEO job, and they're unhappy, or they're

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他们在公司待得太久,该走了。

just they've spent enough time there.

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这到底是好事还是坏事?

Is this good or bad?

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我选机会。

I'm gonna have to go with opportunity.

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原因很简单,现在苹果,任何常听节目的人都知道,作为一个彻底陷在苹果生态里的人,你早就不再觉得它有多让人兴奋了。

And the reason being Apple today and and any regular listener will know that as someone fully locked into the Apple ecosystem, it's just not been an exciting company you love any longer.

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你现在只是被它困住了,这种感觉已经持续很久了。

It's a company that you're stuck with, and it's just felt like that for a long time.

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我觉得让像特尔努斯这样级别的硬件大将接手,其实特别关键。

And I think the decision to have a hardware leader of the caliber of Ternus actually take the job is actually it's important.

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而且,像那些在服务业务上做出过重大成绩的人,或者整体上,我们太久没看到苹果在硬件创新上真正成功过的东西了,而这恰恰是他们最需要的。

And I think having others who have kind of built these very heavy things, like, very successful, but, like, the services business or, you know, just overall, like, we haven't seen hardware innovation that succeeded from Apple in a long time, and that's what they need.

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再比如,又来个克雷格·费德里吉,动不动就激动地开发布会,那样子。

And I think, again, another Craig Federighi, like, you know, big announcements of him kind of getting excited.

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我觉得,有点人员更替,来点新血,对苹果未必是坏事。

Like, I feel a little bit of turnover and a little bit of new blood is not the worst thing for Apple.

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你觉得呢?

Would you agree?

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我完全同意。

I agree wholeheartedly.

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而且我觉得,可能从我一开始提到特努斯时,大家就听出我对他有点疑虑,毕竟他出身硬件背景,而我们现在正往软件方向走。

And I think people might have heard from my, you know, my my first comments about Ternus that I had some reservations about him just because he comes from the hardware side of things, and we're moving to more of a software world.

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iPhone的硬件到底改了多少呢?

And has the hardware of the iPhone changed all that much?

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当然,芯片确实挺重要的,这点我明白。

And now he you know, obviously, the chips have been important.

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但我现在的手机,最新款,跟15、16、17代比起来,外观根本没大变化。

But the phone that I that I have now, the latest generation doesn't look very much different than the 16 or the 15, the 17 that is.

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所以按理说,你可能会更想找个懂服务或软件的人,毕竟现在公司里增长最猛的正是服务业务。

So so I would think that maybe you'd want somebody more services or software oriented, especially because service has been showing, like, all the growth within the company.

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但我后来一想,嘿,等等。

But then I thought about it, and you know what?

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我现在彻底站到特努斯这边了。

I'm a Ternus head now.

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我彻底成为特努斯的铁粉了。

I I'm I'm a full on Ternus head.

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我觉得他真就是公司需要的那股新力量,就像你说的那样。

Think that he is gonna be that new blood the company needs, like you said.

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他刚来的时候是这么说的。

This is what he said when he came in.

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他说:‘我特别兴奋能在现在这个时刻接下这个职位,因为我跟你们说,我们马上又要改变世界了。’

He said, I'm especially excited to be stepping into this role at this moment because I am telling you we are about to change the world once again.

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他说苹果前方有一条超棒的发展路线。

He said Apple had an incredible road map ahead.

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我说这话一点都没夸张——在我整个职业生涯里,现在真是做苹果产品和服务最让人激动的时刻。

I'm not exaggerating when I say this is the most exciting time to be building products and services at Apple in my entire career.

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人工智能将带来几乎无限的可能性。

AI is going to create almost unlimited potential.

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我们会不断解锁新可能,催生出完全全新的产品和服务机会,想到这能给用户带来什么,我就特别兴奋。

We're going to be able to keep unlocking possibilities that are going to create entirely new opportunities for our products and services, and I'm so excited about what that's going to mean for our users.

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如果你要接手苹果,这话确实说得挺到位的。

Seems like the right message to be sending if you're taking over Apple.

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我其实也和你想的一样,这公司确实需要注入新血液。

And I just kept I thought the same thing that you thought this company needs new blood.

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他们最近真的提不起劲来。

They have not been inspiring.

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我知道,他们的产品确实不错。

You know, yes, their products are great.

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我每天都会选iPhone,而不是别的手机。

Yes, I'll choose an iPhone, over any other phone any day of the week.

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抱歉啊,安卓用户,这只是我个人偏好。

Sorry to Android users, my personal preference.

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手机是挺棒,但公司整体变得死气沉沉,承诺的Apple Intelligence迟迟不发布,高层该清理的没清理,该引进新人的也没动静。

I just think it's a great phone, but they became uninspiring, stale as a company, unable to ship the products they announced like Apple intelligence, clear out the upper clear the decks, bring in new blood.

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这位新领导看着挺有谱的,真希望苹果能重新活起来,有点干劲儿。

The leader seems like he knows what he's doing, and let's have some dynamism from this company again.

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是的。

Yeah.

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我觉得我算是特尔努斯派的吧。

I think I'm on the team Ternus Ternus tribe, maybe.

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咱们得好好琢磨一下。

We'll have to work.

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得仔细想想。

We'll think through.

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这个事儿得静下心来好好理一理。

Take a moment on that one.

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但我认为

But I think

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我觉得‘特尔努斯队’听起来更顺。

Team Ternus, I think, works better.

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‘特尔努斯头’这说法怪怪的。

Ternus head does not sound right.

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不行。

No.

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绝对不行。

No.

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Team Ternus。

Team Ternus.

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Team Ternus 队。

Team Ternus tribe.

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我不确定能不能用‘队’这个词,但为了押韵,也为了稳妥,我们就用 Team Ternus 吧。

I don't know if you can say tribe, but we'll go we'll go team Ternus for for both alliteration and it's safer.

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我觉得这个想法挺有意思,尤其是说到业务里的服务部分——说实话,我现在特别讨厌这个部分。我意识到自己每个月为 iCloud 付 40 美元,就因为我照片太多,被困住了,根本逃不掉。

So I think the it's interesting the idea, like, for I I mean, the services part of the business, though, I hate right now, and that's someone who I've realized I'm paying, like, $40 a month for iCloud because I just have more photos, and I am stuck, and I will never be able to get out of it.

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说真的,他们这生意做得太大了,上个财年营收高达一千一百亿美元,想想真吓人,但没人真乐意给苹果交这笔钱。

Like, overall, the way they've grown that business has been it was a $110,000,000,000 in revenue last fiscal year, which is insane when you think about it, but no one is actually excited to be paying Apple that money.

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大家只是没办法而已。

They just kinda have to.

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所以我觉得,把服务、软件,还有AI也算进去,重新思考这些东西怎么跟他们未来的硬件世界融合,这事儿挺让人兴奋的。

So I think taking services, taking software, and I'll put AI under that and starting to rethink how that lives within whatever world of hardware they're going to actually is exciting.

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我们其实已经聊过很多次了。

Like, we've talked about a lot this a lot.

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毕竟,人跟AI交互的界面到底长什么样,现在谁也说不准。

Like, the the interface with which you interact with AI, no one knows what it's gonna look like.

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我们试过那些小玩意儿。

We've had our pins.

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我们还试过RIP Humane。

We've had our r I p humane.

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那个Rabbit R1,算不算一次尝试?

We've had what was the rabbit r one was like an effort?

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大家都试过各种花样,但没人真正搞出个让人眼前一亮的。

Like, people have been trying things, and no one has nailed it.

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所以,要是真有人能大规模地把这个事儿做透了,我觉得那可太棒了——只要他真能干出点名堂来。

So the idea that at scale, there could be someone who might figure this out in a pretty compelling way, I think that that could be exciting if he if he starts to starts to do something.

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而且你给我列了那份潜在新品的清单,我一看到就特别兴奋,这可能是我最近对苹果最感兴趣的一次了。

And and you have a list we'll get into about these potential new products, and that's, like, the most excited I've been about Apple just reading that list as we get into it.

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所以我觉得,没错,光是这份清单就让我真心希望苹果能成功,盼着他们能做出点名堂来。

So so I think, yeah, I'm gonna this this at least makes me want to wish Apple well and hope for the best.

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当然了。

Oh, yes.

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绝对没错。

Most definitely.

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我的意思是,这些产品虽然是库克时代开发的,但这周德国在TBPN上提到过,苹果正在布局的新产品类别——比如AI耳机、智能眼镜、挂坠、智能显示屏、桌面机器人和安防摄像头——这些方向真的很有道理。

I mean, the again, like, if you look and this is, of course, products that were developed under cook, but this is something that German spoke about on TBPN this week, the list of of product categories that Apple is, you know, working to build new product categories that Apple is working to build to me make a lot of sense.

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比如那个AI版AirPods。

There are these AI AirPods.

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还有智能眼镜。

There are smart glasses.

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再就是挂坠、智能显示屏、桌面机器人,还有安防摄像头。

There's the pendant, a smart display, a tabletop robot, and a security camera.

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不过这些产品其实都是在库克领导下开发的,特恩斯也说了,这大概是他从业以来最激动人心的时刻。

Now again, this has been under development under cook, but Ternus basically said, again, most exciting time that I'm, you know, I've been working on products.

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当然,他主导了iPhone的诞生,接下来也很可能会推动这些新产品落地,而且他似乎对Siri也挺上心的。

And of course, he's been central to the iPhone, obviously going to shepherd a lot of these products, into production, seems to care somewhat about Siri.

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要不干脆让管Siri的那人走人?

Maybe let the guy running Siri leave.

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我也不确定。

I don't know.

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他现在正在认真思考公司未来的方向。

And and is and is prioritizing what the future's gonna be.

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所以我觉得,前景挺光明的。

So, yeah, I I think that this is bright.

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你对刚才念的那张清单,最感兴趣的是哪一项?

What has you most excited about that list you just read?

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我觉得AI版AirPods真的让人眼前一亮。

I will say that the AI AirPods really do.

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我的意思是,你肯定会觉得他们应该有个更好的助手。

I mean, you would imagine that they're gonna have a better assistant.

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也许吧,咱们还是眼见为实吧。

And maybe, again, like, let's believe it when we see it.

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你肯定会想,既然他们现在要把 Gemini 的技术融入新版 Siri,那助手肯定得升级才行。

You would imagine they would have a better assistant now that they're, like, I think, distilling Gemini and turning that into new Siri.

Speaker 0

要是他们真这么做了,再把这技术用到 AirPods 上,那除了亚马逊的 Echo,全球最主流的 AI 设备可能就要诞生了。

And if they do that and they have an idea of of what to do with, when you put that in the AirPods, then you're looking at, you know, an immediately, the the most mainstream AI device in the world may be out of outside of the Amazon Echo.

Speaker 0

我也不确定。

I don't know.

Speaker 0

你觉得呢?

What do you think?

Speaker 1

不会吧。

No.

Speaker 1

真不会。

No.

Speaker 1

而且它可能更低调、更容易被接受,因为我自己,还有纽约街头很多其他人,都天天戴着AirPods。

And it could be less intrusive and more accepted because I, myself, and many, many other people around the streets of New York certainly are just wearing their AirPods.

Speaker 1

就算不听任何东西,我也戴着,走路的时候特别安心。

I wear them even when I'm not listening to anything that's weirdly comforting as I walk around.

Speaker 1

所以要是能把这个变成一个一直在线的设备……

So to have that as a kind of always on device.

Speaker 1

我也不确定。

I don't know.

Speaker 1

桌面机器人?

Tabletop robot.

Speaker 1

我不清楚那到底是什么,但我就是想要。

I don't know what that means, what it is, but I I want it.

Speaker 0

听着挺带劲的。

Sounding exciting.

Speaker 0

我已经想预定了。

Preordering.

Speaker 1

我已经预定了。

I'm preordering.

Speaker 1

约翰,你需要啥都行,特努斯,你那桌面机器人我全要了。

Whatever you need, John, whatever you need, Ternus, I will take your tabletop robot.

Speaker 1

吊坠?还挺带感的。

Pendant, kind of exciting.

Speaker 1

我觉得吧,就是……

I think, like

Speaker 0

不是。

No.

Speaker 0

根本不是。

No.

Speaker 0

这根本不是。

It's not.

Speaker 0

是个吊坠。

A pendant.

Speaker 1

那是个胸针啦

It's the pin.

Speaker 1

就是那个胸针

The pin.

Speaker 1

不对不对,是那个挂坠来着

The pendant.

Speaker 1

不管是哪个,反正出了其中一款我肯定得入一个

One of those one of those will be something.

Speaker 1

它会是个吊饰的

Will be

Speaker 0

别瞎猜了

something.

Speaker 0

真的假的?

Really?

Speaker 0

先不说这个,你打算把这些东西都往哪儿戴啊?

We're gonna be where can we are you gonna wear all this stuff?

Speaker 0

我们戴AirPods、挂项链、戴手表、戴眼镜。

We're gonna wear AirPods, a pendant, watch, the glasses.

Speaker 0

咱们身上还得再添点能做AI的东西吗?

Do we need any more stuff on our body that can do AI?

Speaker 1

我觉得是得加点。

I think I think so.

Speaker 1

不过说实话,要我说新添的东西,我觉得不用了。

But act actually, in terms of new blood, was just thinking no.

Speaker 1

不用了。

No.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,你懂吧?

I mean, I you know what?

Speaker 1

要是真好用,我全戴上。

If it's good, I'm putting it all on.

Speaker 1

但要说新添东西,我觉得太疯狂了。

But in terms of new blood, it is crazy to me.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,你刚提到苹果智能发布的事儿。

Like, I mean, you had just brought up the launch of Apple Intelligence.

Speaker 1

换别的公司,这发布简直烂透了——要是听众还记得,《最后生还者》那个女演员,贝拉什么来着——

In any other company, how botched that rollout was, if if, like, listeners remember, what's her name from last of us, Bella something, the actress, like

Speaker 0

贝拉·拉姆齐。

Bella Ramsey.

Speaker 1

那些广告里全是贝拉·拉姆齐,简直全是骗人的,把当时根本不存在的功能吹得天花乱坠。

Every Bella Ramsey, those ads were so misleading, just flat out lies about the capabilities that were existing at the time.

Speaker 1

说实话,很少有公司敢这么明目张胆地造假。

Took I mean, very few companies have ever done any like, have done something that egregious.

Speaker 1

结果高层居然没一个人被公开问责,这反而说明他们太自满了,我觉得。

So the fact that heads did not roll in a public way actually is kind of a sign of, like, overly being comfortable, I think.

Speaker 1

而且我现在越想越觉得,换做别的公司,这事早该闹出大风波了。

But also, I mean, even more now that I'm thinking about it, like, most companies, there would have been some serious ramifications around that.

Speaker 1

我记得有次采访,克雷格和埃迪他们聊AI需要时间,结果谁都不肯担责任,全在打太极。

And if you do I remember that interview where, like, Craig and I think it was Eddie were just kind of talking about how AI takes time, and they just had, like, the most no one took responsibility.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得,如果约翰·特努斯真能让人站出来对这事负责,抛开财务表现不谈,当你拥有一个生态系统垄断的时候,真正需要的是新鲜血液,而不是继续原地踏步。

So I think if John Ternus starts having people take some responsibility for what has happened, and, again, financial results notwithstanding, when you have an ecosystem monopoly, I think, like, new blood actually is needed rather than it's just okay to have.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

没错。

That's right.

Speaker 0

让我再跟你说一件事,因为很多事现在都只是猜测,但至少我们可以聊聊苹果目前的处境。

Let let me tell you one more thing about this because, you know, a lot of this is is speculation, but we can at least talk a little bit about the position that Apple is in right now.

Speaker 0

你不觉得约翰·特努斯会成为苹果的成败关键吗?现在苹果正站在一个岔路口,只有两条路可走。

And doesn't it seem like like John Ternus is gonna be the make or break CEO for Apple, that they are really at a place where they can go one of two ways.

Speaker 0

一条是抓住这个时机,彻底逆袭成顶级公司;另一条呢,就是像乔布斯去世后那两代一样,被自己的庞大身躯压得动弹不得,慢慢停滞下来。

And one is sort of nail this moment and just become the ultra company, or, you know, they can sort of become the company that, like, to it two generations after jobs kinda got stuck under the weight of its own body and and stalled.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我完全同意。

I I fully agree.

Speaker 1

成败在此一举。

Make or break moment.

Speaker 1

财务数据根本反映不了真实情况,我知道这么说听起来有点荒唐,但苹果把用户牢牢锁在生态里,这招确实玩得漂亮,可这优势不可能永远持续下去。

Like, the financial results don't reflect, and I know I sound ridiculous saying that the actual state of where the company is because it is a monopoly in terms of, like, the way they've locked people into the ecosystem has been brilliant in terms of its execution, but it's not going to last forever.

Speaker 1

我觉得他们已经露出破绽了,我看到一条推文说,iMessage里的绿色气泡分辨率居然还低一点。

I think already that they I actually saw this one tweet where apparently the green bubble in iMessage has, like, a slightly lower resolution even.

Speaker 1

所以啊,没人想在群聊里当那个用绿色气泡的人。

So, like, they created this, you don't wanna be the green bubble person in your group text.

Speaker 1

谁都想用iMessage。

Like, you want iMessage.

Speaker 1

他们一直营造出这种高端感,可现在我认识的每个人,对苹果产品都提不起一点兴趣,这可不是好兆头。虽然靠生态锁定还能撑一阵子,但……

They created that luxury feel for so long, but now no one I talk to is excited about Apple products in any way, which is not a good thing in terms of the future of the company, and they can kind of ride out the lock ecosystem lock in for long enough.

Speaker 1

这真的是最后的机会了。

But this is this is it.

Speaker 1

特努斯,别有压力啊。

Ternus, no pressure.

Speaker 0

他们需要一个放在桌上的机器人,让人真能兴奋起来

They need the tabletop robot that will make people excited

Speaker 1

只要有了机器人,啥问题都能解决。

about robots will solve everything.

Speaker 1

我

I

Speaker 0

我的意思是,所有问题。

mean Everything.

Speaker 0

所有问题。

Everything.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,除非你对它不好,它才懒得从桌上下来。

I mean, until it decides to come down off that tabletop if you're mean to it.

Speaker 0

不过那都是后话了。

But that's that's for another death.

Speaker 0

你有没有见过这些东西?

I don't know if you've seen these.

Speaker 1

待在桌面上别下来。

Stay on the tabletop.

Speaker 1

就乖乖待着,我们就没事。

Just stay on, and we're okay.

Speaker 0

我不确定你有没有看过那些视频,但咱们得认真聊聊机器人这事。

I don't if you've seen these videos of do you remember this is actually an important point to just talk about robotics for a moment.

Speaker 0

你还记得去年中国那场机器人半程马拉松吗?那些机器人全都搞笑地摔在地上。

Do you remember last year, there was the, robot half marathon in China, and all these robots were hilariously, like, slamming into the floor.

Speaker 0

今年有台机器人半程马拉松跑进了一个小时以内。

These things I think one ran the half marathon in under an hour this year.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,我特别期待看到这一幕。

I mean, I want my Look out a lot.

Speaker 1

我想要我的机器人跑半程马拉松,时间还不到一小时。

Running I I I want my run robot running a marathon in less a half marathon in less than an hour.

Speaker 1

机器人理应比人跑得快才对。

Like, a robot should be faster than a human.

Speaker 1

我觉得这并不可怕。

That doesn't scare me, I think.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,如果我们真把它们放出去,迟早会出事。

Like, if if we're putting them out there, it's gonna get you.

Speaker 1

你根本跑不过机器人。

You're not gonna outrun a robot.

Speaker 0

我觉得你完全低估了让机器人,尤其是人形机器人,跑这么快有多难,不过想想也挺必然的。

I think you're fully underappreciating how difficult it is to get a robot to move that fast, a humanoid to move that fast, but I guess it was inevitable.

Speaker 1

我懂。

My yeah.

Speaker 1

行吧。

Okay.

Speaker 1

说到底,这背后的机械设计对机器人行业确实挺关键的。

I guess the mechanics of it do seem like something very important to to for the robotics industry.

Speaker 1

但只要桌面上的机器人别跑下桌子就行,其实我都不知道它到底干嘛用的。

But as long as the tabletop robot is not leaving the table, and I don't even know what it does.

Speaker 1

诶,它在桌子上到底干嘛的?

Like, what what does it do on the table?

Speaker 0

顺便说一句,我觉得这暴露了你对人形机器人的偏见。

By the way, I just wanna say that this is your humanoid anti humanoid bias coming out.

Speaker 0

你就是觉得,只要它能跑,我就完全不关心。

You're like, if it runs, I don't care about it at all.

Speaker 0

各位,如果你一直听下来就会知道,拉詹根本不喜欢人形机器人。

Because folks, if you've been listening, Ranjan is not a fan of humanoid robots.

Speaker 0

他更想要专用型机器人。

He wants purpose built robots.

Speaker 1

你看,这正是我喜欢桌面机器人的原因。

See, this is why I like the tabletop robot.

Speaker 1

我早就说了好几个月了。

I've been saying this for for months now.

Speaker 1

我不明白,机器人干嘛非得长得像人。

I don't understand why robots need a human form factor.

Speaker 1

我就想要专用型的,不管这桌面上的机器人到底在干嘛,肯定都是挺有用的。

I want purpose built, and whatever this tabletop robot is doing on that table, I'm sure it's something very helpful.

Speaker 1

它就是在搬东西。

It's moving stuff around.

Speaker 1

它其实是在干活,但我真说不准它在团队里能干啥。

It's working through actually, I don't even know what it would be doing on the team.

Speaker 0

我看过一些介绍,感觉就是个带屏幕的机械臂,转来转去给你展示点玩意儿。

From what I've read, I'm pretty sure it's like a robotic arm with a screen attached that, like, rotates and shows you shit.

Speaker 1

还行吧。

That okay.

Speaker 1

听着也没多厉害。

That does not sound that exciting.

Speaker 1

不好意思,扯远了。

Sorry to take care this discussion.

Speaker 1

我还以为它能给我调杯鸡尾酒呢。

I thought it was fixing me a drink or something like that.

Speaker 0

我觉得这还得再过好几代才行。

I think that's a few generations away.

Speaker 0

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 0

所以这就是苹果的做法。

So that's that's Apple.

Speaker 0

我觉得这对苹果来说真是个好时机。

I think ultimately good moment for for Apple.

Speaker 0

说实话,真得给他们点个赞,这简直是史上最顺滑的CEO交接了。

Honestly, kudos to them, because this was like the smoothest CEO transition ever.

Speaker 0

而且他们的股价其实

And their stock is is actually

Speaker 1

还没发生呢。

happened yet.

Speaker 0

你说啥?

You're what?

Speaker 0

你觉得最后会有什么场景吗?比如蒂姆·库克还坐在CEO的位置上,心想:我真能说走就走?不可能。

You think there's gonna be some last moments like Tim Cook sitting on the throne being like, I thought I could leave No.

Speaker 1

不可能。

No.

Speaker 1

行吧。

Okay.

Speaker 1

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 1

这倒也是。

Fair enough.

Speaker 1

换人吧。

Replace me.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,咱们对特努斯做过背景调查了吗?

I mean, have we done our background checks on Ternus?

Speaker 1

我是爱国者队球迷,我信迈克·弗拉克。

I'm a Patriots fan and Mike Vrabel.

Speaker 1

天哪。

Good god.

Speaker 1

这周到底发生啥了?

What's happened this week?

Speaker 1

咱们就说说苹果公司,你们的背景调查到底咋回事?

So let's just Apple, your background checks.

Speaker 0

我就提这个要求。

That's all I ask.

Speaker 0

我得说,我们一直憋着没提弗拉贝尔的事儿,已经够有自制力了,但这可不是体育节目。

I wanna just say there's been great willpower on us to not bring up the Vrabel situation, but this is not a sports podcast.

Speaker 0

我们也就顺带提一嘴,但这个

We're gonna just glance past it, but that

Speaker 1

这可是唯一一次提到。

is That's the only reference.

Speaker 1

这可是唯一一次提到。

That's the only reference.

Speaker 0

好吧。

Alright.

Speaker 0

咱们聊聊 OpenAI 和他们那些争议吧。

Let's let's about OpenAI and and their controversies there.

Speaker 0

你们知道吗,咱们正好赶在 GPT 5.5,也就是那个叫 Spud 的版本发布后讨论。

You know, they released we're talking right after the release of GPT 5.5 aka Spud.

Speaker 0

我学到的一点是,别一上线就急着评判一个模型。

And I think one thing that I've learned is to not judge a model the day of.

Speaker 0

得给点时间,让别人去发现它的用处,但你可以评判它的发布方式。

You gotta give it some time so people find the uses, but you can judge the rollout.

Speaker 0

很多人注意到,这次发布比往常顺畅多了。

And one of the things a lot of people have noticed is that the rollout has been, much smoother maybe than typical.

Speaker 0

这条推文是来自。

This is from this is a tweet from.

Speaker 0

我觉得大概是这么念的。

I think that's how you pronounce it.

Speaker 0

这感觉就像是OpenAI内部有人在主动做事。

This feels like someone inside OAI, OpenAI is doing work.

Speaker 0

他们意识到,Anthropic和Dario之所以越来越受欢迎,不仅因为产品好,还因为大家喜欢他们,希望他们能赢。

They realized that Anthropic Dario were gaining more traction mostly because they have a good product, but also because people like them and want them to win.

Speaker 0

之前有一晚,一堆醉醺醺的搞笑推文,我记得Sam还回复了一个Anthropic的员工,说‘好吧,老古董’——那家伙正试图为Anthropic的某个行为辩解。

First, there was a night of funny drunk tweets, which I think Sam tweeted an Anthropic growth employee, okay, boomer, after this person was, like, trying to explain away something Anthropic did.

Speaker 0

现在这个新产品发布,明显更有人情味儿了,甚至可以说,有点谦逊了。

And now this new product announcement feels noticeably more personable and, dare I say, humble might take.

Speaker 0

这将是一场真实性的较量,而Sam Altman发的那条推文就是个信号,他宣布GPT 5.5时的语气跟以往不太一样。

This is going to be a war of authenticity, and that was above a tweet from Sam Altman announcing GPT 5.5 with a kind of different tone than usual.

Speaker 0

他写的是:‘GPT 5.5来了。’

He wrote he wrote GPT 5.5 is here.

Speaker 0

希望它能对你们有帮助。

We hope it's useful to you.

Speaker 0

我个人挺喜欢的。

I personally like it.

Speaker 0

这不就是那个Spud的推文嘛。

Like, that is that's the Spud tweet.

Speaker 0

你再看看Mythos的发布方式。

Compare that to the Mythos rollout.

Speaker 0

你觉得OpenAI在公关上终于开窍了吗?

Do you think that OpenAI is getting its act together on comms?

Speaker 1

我觉得是的。

I do.

Speaker 1

我也觉得是。

I do.

Speaker 1

我一直说,AI圈里每个周期都快得要命,压力也大,我们老忘了事情发展有多快。

I think it it this is what I've been saying, like, everyone in any of these cycles within AI, everything is so heavy and fast that I think we forget how quickly things move.

Speaker 1

再说Anthropic,过去四到六个月简直一路狂飙,尤其是在公众印象这块。

And because, again, Anthropic has been the last, call it, what, four to six months that it's just been on a tear, especially from, like, a public perception standpoint.

Speaker 1

但自从Opus 47发布以来,对这个模型的负面声音就没停过,再加上Mythos整体的发布方式,问题就更明显了。

But the last since the launch of Opus four seven, there's been a lot of negative sentiment around the launch of the model, and we get into Mythos overall and how it's been rolled out.

Speaker 1

我得说,GPT Image 2 这次,我好久没看到大家对模型的升级这么兴奋了。

And I gotta say, GPT Image two, like, the way that was the most excited I've seen people about kind of an advance in model.

Speaker 1

就连五点五版本出来的时候,我都没怎么听到什么反响。

Even at five five, I haven't really heard much.

Speaker 1

我觉得这事儿就是今天才发生的。

I think that was today.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

或者至少是我们录这段话的时候才发生的。

Or as we're recording.

Speaker 1

五点五版本 basically 就是悄无声息地发布了,但 GPT Image 2 呢,我真没见过这么多人为它激动。

It's, like, the five five part is just kind of quietly rolled out, but GPT image too, like, I saw more excitement around that than I've seen in a long time.

Speaker 1

我进去试了。

I went in.

Speaker 1

就开始各种折腾。

I started trying stuff.

Speaker 1

这感觉真的跟之前那个Nano Banana不一样了,那时候大家还蛮兴奋的。

It was actually it felt like a step change from Nano Banana, which kind of had people excited by last.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得,最近几天他们总算做对了点什么,这可是好久没见了。

So I think on that side, they are doing something right in the last few days they have not done in a while.

Speaker 1

我也说不准。

I think also I don't know.

Speaker 1

你看到萨姆·阿尔特曼把他的推特简介改成了啥不?

Did you see what Sam Altman changed his Twitter bio to?

Speaker 0

看到了。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

挺低调的,就写了点类似‘我挺喜欢AI’这样的话。

It's something understated.

Speaker 0

对,就是那种感觉。

Like, I kinda like AI or something like that.

Speaker 1

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

没有。

No.

Speaker 1

根本不是。

No.

Speaker 1

AI挺酷的,我觉得吧,就是那种小写的‘i’的感觉。

It is it is AI is cool, I guess, lowercase I.

Speaker 1

你之前提到过,他们收购TBPN主要是出于传播方面的考虑。

Like so I saw you had pointed out that one of the reasons that they bought TBPN was from a comm standpoint.

Speaker 1

这挺有意思的,感觉这事儿是故意为之的。

And it was interesting because, like, it felt like this was a very purposeful thing.

Speaker 1

当他开始回怼Anthropic,发那种阴阳怪气的推文,或者只是淡淡地说‘希望对大家有用’的时候。

When you're changing that, when he's starting to kind of, like, snarky tweet back at Anthropic, when he's just doing, like, we hope it's useful.

Speaker 1

我个人挺喜欢这样的。

I personally like it.

Speaker 1

这明显是个有意识的决定,我觉得挺对的。

I mean, this is this is a decision, and I think it's a good one.

Speaker 0

我觉得这里可能确实有TBPN的影响。

I do think that we could be seeing some TBPN, influence here.

Speaker 0

我确实发过一条推文,夸了OpenAI的公司策略,结果被TBPN高层点赞了。

I definitely I tweeted that over this one about that was praising OpenAI's comp strategy, and then it's definitely liked by someone high up at TBPN.

Speaker 0

咱们就这么说吧。

We'll put it that way.

Speaker 0

所以,也许这就是正在发生的事。

So, you know, maybe that's what's going on.

Speaker 0

但这次发布确实挺顺利的。

But certainly, this rollout has you know, fairly smooth.

Speaker 0

他们也没把大家的预期炒得太高。

It's not been something that they have inflated expectations on.

Speaker 0

你还记得GPT-5发布前吗?Altman上Theo的节目,说得那叫一个天花乱坠,好像能改变世界。

You know, remember when before GPT five, like, Altman was on Theo Vaughn and was talking about, like, all these, like, massive things that it was gonna do.

Speaker 0

结果呢?他把期待拉得太高了,反而让人觉得落差太大。

And then it just was felt it was he built it up so much.

Speaker 0

结果肯定会让人大失所望。

It was going to inevitably be a letdown.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,布罗克曼之前在这档节目里就提过这事。

I mean, obviously, Brockman talked about it on on this show, beforehand.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得,大家的预期其实已经被调低了。

So I think the the, expectations were managed.

Speaker 0

他们还做了一件挺有意思的事,就是把GPT-5.5的访问权限开放给了整个英伟达公司。

They they also did something interesting, which is that they gave access to GPT 5.5 to the entire company of NVIDIA.

Speaker 0

而英伟达本身正和谷歌、亚马逊、Anthropic打得不可开交,这几家公司联手训练了两个跟OpenAI对抗的模型。

And, obviously, NVIDIA is locked in this battle with Google and Amazon and Anthropic, have together basically trained two competing models against the NVIDIA OpenAI access.

Speaker 0

然后詹森还发了封邮件给全公司,大赞GPT-5.5,说它表现得太棒了。

And then Jensen sent an email out to all of NVIDIA NVIDIA, obviously praising, GPT 5.5 and talking about how well it's done.

Speaker 0

萨姆也发了推文夸了它。

And Sam also, tweeted that.

Speaker 0

这招确实挺聪明的。

So that was like another smart move.

Speaker 0

最后,他们把这款产品和Mythos做对比,我想听听你的看法。

And lastly, they are positioning it against Mythos, and that's something that I wanna get your perspective on.

Speaker 0

Mythos嘛,主打的是网络安全和网络攻击能力,他们把功能拆得很细。

Mythos, of course, cybersecurity capabilities and and cyber attack capabilities, and they portioned it off.

Speaker 0

但GPT-5.5可没这么干。

And this has not been the case with, with 5.5.

Speaker 0

Sam在发布时发推说,他们相信渐进式上线。

And Sam in in a tweet on launch said we believe in iterative deployment.

Speaker 0

他们相信要让技术普惠大众。

We believe in democratization.

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我们爱你,也希望你能赢。

We love you, and we want you to win.

Speaker 0

意思就是,他们跟Anthropic的做法完全不一样。

Basically saying we're doing it completely different than Anthropic.

Speaker 0

也许他们是在抓住这个时机。

Maybe they're seizing the moment.

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Speaker 0

你觉得呢?

What do you think?

Speaker 1

行吧。

Okay.

Speaker 1

你知道吗?

You know what?

Speaker 1

我得先降温了。

I'm already having to back off.

Speaker 1

我本来还挺期待萨姆这次发布的新面孔的,但话说回来,我们支持你,也希望你能成功。

I was getting excited about Sam's new face in this launch, but we love you and want you to win.

Speaker 1

得了吧。

Come on.

Speaker 1

我整个职业生涯,说白了就是围着创业公司的魔力转。

My whole career has largely been about the magic of startups.

Speaker 1

我觉得该说的都说了。

Like, I think enough has come out.

Speaker 1

你觉得大家会认为这是真心的吗?

Do you think people are gonna take this as sincere?

Speaker 1

肯定不少人会信,但你觉得他真能一直保持这种‘我们爱你,希望你赢’的真诚态度吗?

I'm sure plenty of people will, but do you think, like, he's gonna be able to maintain this sincerity of we love you and want you to win?

Speaker 1

我还注意到,记得他回复完一位Anthropic的工程师后,发了条‘哦,老古董’,然后转推说:‘今晚我喝了点酒’,还把‘今晚’拼错了。

I also noted, and I remember there's this one after replying to an anthropic engineer, okay boomer, he quote tweeted, tonight, I have had a couple of drinks, misspelling tonight.

Speaker 1

我其实去查了下,萨姆·阿尔特曼平时喝酒吗?

I actually looked up, like, does Sam Altman drink?

Speaker 1

结果发现他公开说过很多次,为了优化睡眠,他不喝酒。

And it's saying he's had a lot of public statements about for sleep optimization.

Speaker 1

他基本不碰酒精,偶尔可能破例一次。

He does not consume alcohol and then very rarely might.

Speaker 1

所以,他到底是真喝微醺了在那儿发推,还是说——我现在再看,这感觉有点假了?

So, again, is he actually just sitting there a little tipsy tweeting, or is this now now that I'm looking at it, it's feeling a little bit insincere.

Speaker 1

这招也许能奏效,但也可能适得其反。

It might work, but it might backfire too.

Speaker 0

行,我懂了。

Well, okay.

Speaker 0

那我们来聊聊这个事儿,说到底核心就是Mythos对阵Spud,或者说Mythos对阵5.5版本的冲突。

So let's talk about this because ultimately what this comes down to is Mythos versus Spud or Mythos versus 5.5.

Speaker 0

我挺好奇你觉得正确的处理方式是什么,我也一直在琢磨这个问题。

And and I I I think that I'm curious what you think the right approach is.

Speaker 0

我完全能理解Anthropic的立场,他们的顾虑就是自家的这个模型确实能被用来发动网络攻击。

I totally hear Anthropic's perspective on this, which is like, we know that this thing can do cyber attacks.

Speaker 0

我们会和一批信任的合作伙伴一起,非常谨慎地逐步推行这个计划。

We're gonna roll it out really slowly with a series of trusted partners.

Speaker 0

而且我也了解到了OpenAI这边的立场——我之前和格雷格·布洛克曼聊过这件事,这期节目在咱们的播客频道里就能听。

And then I kinda hear OpenAI's perspective as well, which I spoke with Greg Brockman about that, and you can listen to that show on the feed.

Speaker 0

那期节目是昨天更新的。

That was yesterday.

Speaker 0

他当时的说法大概是,他们对自己的治理模式很有信心。

And what he said is basically, like, we're pretty confident in our governance.

Speaker 0

我们设计的时候就坚决不让它允许网络攻击,所以你可能会遇到更多拒绝,因为我们在网络攻击这块设了高墙,但我们还是希望每个人都能用上。

We've built this in a way that is not going to be permissive towards cyber attacks and you can, you know, you might get more refusals because of it because of our, the walls around cyber attacks, but we want everybody to have it.

Speaker 0

你觉得这儿该咋办才对?

What do you think is the right approach here?

Speaker 1

我觉得得在‘我们下一个模型发布就会毁灭人类、搞垮世界经济’和‘萨姆跟所有人说他爱他们’之间找点平衡。

I think there's gotta be a middle ground between our next model release will destroy humanity and crush the world economy and Sam telling everyone that he loves them.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,你看看微软这周的公告,或者Adobe的峰会,

There's gotta be I mean, like, take a Microsoft announcement or an Adobe summit this week.

Speaker 1

都有软件发布,

There's some software releases.

Speaker 1

都有升级更新,

There's some upgrades.

Speaker 1

不是每件事都得惊天动地、颠覆世界啊。

Not everything has to be earth shattering and world defying.

Speaker 1

这不就是模型的下一个迭代嘛。

Like, it's just the next iteration of the model.

Speaker 1

要是这些公司不用为了上市而一直制造 hype,我们真有必要为每个新模型都搞这么大阵仗吗?

Like, if these companies weren't in the position of having to kind of keep this drumbeat of hype being pushed until they go public in the markets, do we need this much hype for every new model release?

Speaker 1

这话题是挺能聊的,但我希望这些更新能像发布说明那样平平淡淡就好。

It makes for good conversation fodder, but my my wish is these would just be kind of like they would be in release notes maybe.

Speaker 1

也许发个简短的新闻稿就够了,别整那么复杂。

Maybe there's, like, a press release, and that's it.

Speaker 1

没必要非得搞得非黑即白、轰轰烈烈的。

It doesn't have to be this all or nothing type of way of communicating around it.

Speaker 0

这说法有道理,但说到底,还得看这些技术到底有没有真正的网络安全能力,或者进攻性能力。

Is that truther on the well, I guess it sort of depends on whether you believe these things have real cybersecurity capabilities or cyber offensive capabilities as well.

Speaker 0

如果它们真有攻击性能力,那可就不能随便说‘去吧,随便用’了。

If they have cyber offensive capabilities, then you can't just, you know, sort of say, alright.

Speaker 0

得慎重对待。

Go for it.

Speaker 0

你怎么看这个问题?

So what's your perspective on that?

Speaker 0

你觉得这事儿

Do you think it's

Speaker 1

是真的吗?

real?

Speaker 1

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 0

我觉得这事儿是真的。

Because I think it's real.

Speaker 0

我接触过不少人,也做过不少相关报道,至少我觉得这事有一定程度的真实性。

From the people that I've spoken with, I've done enough reporting on it that I believe it's real at least to some degree.

Speaker 1

如果这事儿是真的,这周彭博社报道了,Mythos系统被入侵了,一个未经授权的团队用了好几种方法,成功访问了模型。

So so if it is real, this week, Bloomberg reported there was a breach for Mythos where an unauthorized group, they tried a number of different strategies and were able to gain access to the model.

Speaker 1

他们是Anthropic的第三方承包商的员工。

They work for a third party contractor that works for Anthropic.

Speaker 1

他们就是靠猜,瞎蒙那个访问模型的网址,结果还真让他们猜中了。

And the way they did it is they literally, like, made educated guesses about the mark the the target URL to access the model.

Speaker 1

如果你的模型真像你过去两周说的那么危险,我是Anthropic的话,我早就急得团团转了。

If your model is truly as dangerous as you have made it out to be over the last two weeks, If I am Anthropic, this announcement, you should be hair on fire running around.

Speaker 1

要是他们真靠猜URL、靠外包人员就黑进去了,天知道还有多少人也能做到。

Because if they did it by guessing a URL and having contractor access, god knows who else has it.

Speaker 1

中国早就拿到了。

China already has it.

Speaker 1

什么Jensen的事儿,现在都无所谓了。

The whole Jensen thing just becomes moot.

Speaker 1

如果这模型真这么强大又危险,这事儿该是头号新闻才对,他们早该站出来道歉,说正在尽全力补救——可现在呢?什么动静都没有。

Like, if it is so powerful and dangerous, this should be the biggest story, and they should be telling the world how not only are they incredibly sorry about what has happened, they are doing everything in their power to actually fix this and nothing.

Speaker 1

这摆明了就是不在乎。

This is just it's like, they don't care.

Speaker 1

我真的搞不懂。

I don't know.

Speaker 1

要是真被这么简单的方式攻破了,他们难道不该更紧张吗?

Do do like, if it's truly breached in such a pedestrian way, like, shouldn't they care more?

Speaker 0

首先,我得说,就因为 Discord 里几个宅男拿到了 Mythos 的访问权限,不代表 Mythos 的网络攻击能力是假的。

Well, first of all, I'll say just because a couple of dorks in the Discord got access to Mythos doesn't mean that the cyber offensive capabilities of Mythos are a lie.

Speaker 0

要是你把它随便放给所有人,结果啥事没有,那我肯定得说点什么。

If you would have given it to everybody and and had a nothing burger, then I would have said something.

Speaker 0

但光凭这个,还不能直接否定它。

But it's not on its face disqualifying.

Speaker 0

现在都已经是 Mythos 真实曝光的第三周了。

Then I'll say it's we're already now in week three of this Mythos Real.

Speaker 0

我理解你对这事的怀疑,真的。

And I appreciate your skepticism around it.

Speaker 0

我真的很理解。

I really do.

Speaker 0

我觉得吧,咱们现在就是面对这个新产品、这个模型了。

I think that we just we've kind of here are this is our new product or the model.

Speaker 0

我觉得你我在这事儿上卡住了,只能等下去,看结果了。

I think you and I are kind of at an impasse, and we're just gonna have to wait and see to

Speaker 1

你得给我个答复。

get that answer.

Speaker 1

但不,不是这样的。

But but no.

Speaker 1

不是。

No.

Speaker 1

但我想知道,如果只是几个普通人在Discord里就能接触到你们那个可能毁灭世界级别的模型,这难道不更该引起重视吗?

But I wanna ask, shouldn't that be more important if a couple of guys and a couple of folks in the Discord are able to access your, like, potentially world destructive model?

Speaker 1

如果你真在Anthropic工作,还负责领导这家公司,要是这事儿是真的,难道不应该是你最害怕的事吗?

Shouldn't that be if you are working for Anthropic, if you're leading Anthropic, shouldn't that be the most terrifying thing imaginable if it is real?

Speaker 0

这么说吧。

I mean, let me put it this way.

Speaker 0

Anthropic以前不也遇到过不少类似的情况吗?

Hasn't Anthropic had a number of similar situations?

Speaker 0

比如Claude Code的源代码都泄露过,诸如此类的事。

The source code for, like, Claude Code leaked and all this stuff.

Speaker 0

他们简直太依赖Claude了,我觉得他们本该更早想清楚这一点。

And it's just like they're I think it's almost like they're leaving too much to Claude, and they probably should have thought this through.

Speaker 0

既然他们在做这个版本,Claude怎么没提醒他们改一下命名规范呢?

Why didn't Claude tell them to change the naming convention if they were working on this release?

Speaker 0

太厉害了。

Powerful.

Speaker 0

不对。

No.

Speaker 0

你说得对。

You're right.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我觉得问题在于,大家的思维跳得太快了——刚才还在说‘地球上最危险的东西’,转眼又说‘模型在公园里长出了生命’,还觉得它会活过来抓你、发邮件、发帖子;可转头又说‘哦,对了’。

I think it's just more if like, it the the kind of whiplash from most dangerous thing on earth sandwich in the park, the model is coming to life and you're anthropomorphizing it, and it's, like, gonna come out and take you and send emails and post without your like, going from that to, oh, yeah.

Speaker 1

顺便说一句,只要猜对一个URL,随便哪个承包商都能访问到它。

By the way, anyone can access it by guessing a URL and some contractor access and whatever.

Speaker 1

对我来说,这根本说不通。

To me, it just doesn't square.

Speaker 0

你和我昨天在跟格雷格·布罗克曼聊的时候也提过这个,你和萨姆·阿尔特曼对这事的看法挺像的。

You and, I brought this up in the Greg Brockman conversation yesterday, but you and Sam Altman have a similar perspective on this.

Speaker 0

这事儿是这样的,萨姆·阿尔特曼这周上了阿什利·万斯的播客,聊了聊‘神话’这个事。

This is a just a so Sam Altman was at on Ashley Vance's podcast this week, and he talked about Mythos.

Speaker 0

他说,说‘我们造了个核弹’,这营销简直太绝了。

And he said, it's clearly incredible marketing to say we've built a bomb.

Speaker 0

我们本来就要把这玩意儿砸在你头上。

We were a we were about to drop it on your head.

Speaker 0

我们卖你个避难所,一亿美金,包你全家安全,但前提是得我们挑中你当客户。

We will sell you a bomb shelter for a $100,000,000 thrown across all your stuff, but only if we pick you as a customer.

Speaker 1

这招真高明。

That's good.

Speaker 1

确实高明。

That is good.

Speaker 1

好吧。

Okay.

Speaker 1

也许……也许萨姆真的在乎我们。

May may maybe maybe Sam does love us.

Speaker 1

也许他想大规模制造奇迹,我觉得那条推文后面的意思就是这个。

Maybe he wants to make magic at scale, which is I think what the rest of that tweet said.

Speaker 0

对。

Yep.

Speaker 0

嗯,

Well

Speaker 1

在超大规模下制造奇迹。

Magic at hyperscale.

Speaker 1

奇迹。

Magic

Speaker 0

在超大规模下。

at hyperscale.

Speaker 0

那也只能算是个愿望吧。

Be a would be Yeah.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,这太让人失望了。

I mean letdown.

Speaker 1

谁会想要这个啊?

That's who who wants that?

Speaker 0

得了吧。

Come on.

Speaker 0

不过我确实把达里奥又弄回了白宫。

Well, I did get Dario back into the White House.

Speaker 0

看起来他们又要和白宫达成协议,开始跟整个政府合作了。

Looks like they're gonna have a deal with the White House again to start working with the whole government.

Speaker 0

所以至少,这件事是办成了。

So if anything, it did that.

Speaker 1

超大规模的魔法?

Magic at hyperscale?

Speaker 1

我现在就只想着这件事。

That's all I'm thinking about right now.

Speaker 1

我人生的新目标就是实现超大规模的魔法。

That's my new purpose in life, to deliver magic at hyperscale.

Speaker 1

我不知道具体怎么做,但我就想干这个。

I don't know how, but that's what that's what I wanna do.

Speaker 0

你现在对AI有点怀疑,那我正好可以念一段我们关于布罗克曼视频的评论,听听你咋想。

You're now having this skepticism around AI, so this might be a good opportunity for me to read a comment that we got on the, on the Brockman video and and see what you think.

Speaker 0

LM模型面向公众都快四年了,你们还老在说下一个模型会有多牛。

We're closing in on four years since LM models were broadly released to the public, and you guys are still talking about how the next model will be so amazing.

Speaker 0

永远都是‘下一个’。

Always the next one.

Speaker 0

meanwhile,甲骨文裁掉了一半员工。

Meanwhile, Oracle laid off half its company.

Speaker 0

脸书现在也正在裁掉一半员工。

Facebook is in the current currently in the process of laying off half its company.

Speaker 0

数据中心一个接一个地被取消了。

Data centers are being canceled one after another.

Speaker 0

Chat Chippy Tee 现在也放广告了。

Chat Chippy Tee now has ads.

Speaker 0

这段日子挺不错的。

It was a good run.

Speaker 0

咱们换下一个话题吧。

Try time to pivot to the next topic.

Speaker 1

咱们听众真给力,有不少火药味十足的粉丝。

That's a good our listener we got some spicy listeners.

Speaker 1

他们可喜欢了。

They like it.

Speaker 0

对了,

By the way

Speaker 1

我喜欢

I like

Speaker 0

就是这个。

it.

Speaker 0

我很感谢大家的反馈,不管是读者、听众还是观众的,只要别在苹果播客或Spotify上给两星就行。

I appreciate our reader feedback, our listener feedback, our viewer feedback just as long as it's not two stars in the Apple Podcast or Spotify app.

Speaker 0

我们收到这些评论了。

I Send us these comments.

Speaker 0

支持我们。

Agree with us.

Speaker 0

我喜欢。

I I like it.

Speaker 0

这让人眼界大开。

It's it's mind expanding.

Speaker 0

你知道吗,我们现在又处在这个世界里,就是那种:好吧。

You know, we are because we are again in this world where it's like, alright.

Speaker 0

下一个模型肯定会超棒。

The next model is gonna be so good.

Speaker 0

但我觉得它们确实进步了。

But I I would say they've improved.

Speaker 0

说实话,很难否认它们已经进步了。

I would say it's really hard to argue that they haven't improved.

Speaker 1

我得说,它们的进步简直翻天覆地。

I I will say they've dramatically improved.

Speaker 1

再说,我这行里的人,我清楚。

Again, I work in the industry.

Speaker 1

就是那个说,当初大家都觉得5.0或5.1是失败作的时候,推理和工具调用才是下一个风口的人。

I that was the one who said when everyone said five o or five one was a dud, that reasoning and tool calling were gonna be the next big thing.

Speaker 0

你说得对。

You're right.

Speaker 1

这一路确实有飞跃式的进步,但我也完全理解听众的感受——我真的不想老谈下一个模型。

There's been dramatic step changes along the way, but but I also fully empathize with the listener that, like, I hate to talk about the next model.

Speaker 1

这跟我刚才说的完全一样,对。

And it's just what I was saying Yeah.

Speaker 1

就在刚才。

A few moments ago.

Speaker 1

我真希望下一个模型发布时能像Adobe本周在Summit上推出的,或者微软在别的活动上发布的Copilot for Work那样平平无奇,你知道的,就该是这种感觉,别整什么‘人类小心’的戏码。

I want the next model release to be as boring as whatever Adobe launched at Summit this week or Microsoft launched at whatever else, Copilot for a co work or whatever you know, like, that's what it should be, not, like, beware humanity.

Speaker 1

我们的下一个模型要发布了。

Our next model is dropping.

Speaker 0

你知道吗,我觉得这周被低估的是什么?

You wanna know what I think is getting underplayed this week?

Speaker 0

你其实已经提到了,但我真觉得咱们在休息前得把这话挑明了说。

And you already mentioned it, but I think we should just say this before we go to break.

Speaker 0

ChatGPT图像2.0简直离谱。

The ChatGPT images two point o is insane.

Speaker 1

对,太离谱了。

Oh, it's insane.

Speaker 0

去网上搜一搜。

Search the web.

Speaker 0

它还能编辑图片。

It can edit images.

Speaker 0

我是说,我早就把从DALL·E开始的所有图像生成器都试了个遍。

I mean, it is I've I've tested like crazy every one of these image generators from Dolly on out.

Speaker 0

这玩意儿简直离谱。

This thing is insane.

Speaker 0

太离谱了。

Insane.

Speaker 1

不可能。

No.

Speaker 1

真的假的。

No.

Speaker 1

这就是为什么我觉得,这在图像生成上绝对是质的飞跃。

This is why this was genuinely the I would put this at step change on the image generation side.

Speaker 1

至于推理能力,我倒没觉得多惊艳,毕竟最近的模型只要能联网搜索,应该都能做这种多步推理。

The thinking side wasn't as interesting to me because any recent model should be able to do this kind of multistep reasoning and if web search is part of it.

Speaker 1

但你看看这些输出结果,我之前看过好多像 Nano Banana 或 Nano Banana Gemini Flash 那些东西,跟现在的 Chatty PT Image 2 一比,简直像卡通画一样。

But, like, just seeing the outputs, and I've seen a lot of kinda what got us all excited about Nano Banana two or Nano Banana Gemini Flash two, like, looks cartoonish already compared to what, like, Chatty PT Image two is doing.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得这确实是个大突破。

So I think this was this was big.

Speaker 1

这真的非常了不起。

This this was actually a very impressive thing.

Speaker 1

我觉得吧,挺有意思的。

Do I think but it's interesting.

Speaker 1

这是一次很不错的软件更新。

It's a software update that is good.

Speaker 1

你觉得它能改变人类吗?

Do I think it's, like, gonna change humanity?

Speaker 1

不会。

No.

Speaker 1

但确实很惊艳。

But it was very impressive.

Speaker 0

这是第一个让我真开始担心平面设计师未来的工具。

This was the first one that actually had me worrying about the future of graphic designers.

Speaker 0

真的有这么厉害。

It's that good.

Speaker 0

我可不是在开玩笑。

I'm not even kidding.

Speaker 1

哦,其实我一直都担心做传统平面设计的设计师们前景不妙。

Oh, I guess I mean, this is I've worried about the future of graphic designers who do traditional graphic design for a long time.

Speaker 1

而且说实话,Claude Design 能做到这些,我觉得早就有预兆了。

And, actually, I mean, Claude design and what it's able to do, I think this has been coming for for a while.

Speaker 1

像图片修改、优化,甚至网站的用户界面布局,这类技能早就跟写邮件标题一样,慢慢被淘汰了。

And I think, like, just being able to do some kind of, like, image alteration or improvement or even, like, UX layout of a website, I think that kind of skill has been going the way of someone kind of, like, writing email subject lines for a long time.

Speaker 1

但对我来说,这变化其实没那么大。

But I don't I I guess to me, that didn't change that much.

Speaker 1

挺有意思的,尤其是视觉传达这块——我注意到这次它真正擅长的是把一个想法清晰地表达出来。

It is interesting, like, visual communication and because what I saw happening much better with this is actually kind of communicating an idea.

Speaker 1

比如 Nano Banana 能做出挺像样的卡通流程图,但 GBT Image 2 真的把视觉概念表达得好多了。

Like, Nano Banana could do some kind of, like, good cartoonish flowcharts, but, like, GBT Image two actually was communicating visual concepts much, much better.

Speaker 1

或者说是用视觉来传达东西,

Or, like, communicating visually,

Speaker 0

根本不是什么视觉概念的问题。

not even visual concepts.

Speaker 0

没错。

Agreed.

Speaker 0

行吧。

Alright.

Speaker 0

咱们歇会儿,聊聊 Meta 这波裁员的事儿,还有别的能扯的,趁还没得走赶紧说。

Let's take a break and talk about these cuts at Meta and whatever else we can fit in until we have to go.

Speaker 0

广告后马上回来。

We'll be back right after this.

Speaker 0

你们 IT 团队一半时间都耗在重复的工单上,公司一扩张,请求就堆得没完。

Your IT team waste half their day on repetitive tickets, and the more your business grows, the more requests pile up.

Speaker 0

密码重置、权限申请、新人入职,全在拖累他们做真正重要的事。

Password resets, access requests, onboarding, all pulling them away from meaningful work.

Speaker 0

用了 Servo,你能把 80% 的客服工单直接砍掉。

With Servo, you can cut 80% of your help desk tickets.

Speaker 0

别的老玩家只是硬塞 AI 进去,Servo 从一开始就是为 AI 代理设计的。

While legacy players bolt on AI, Servo was built for AI agents from the ground up.

Speaker 0

来看看这个转变有多彻底。

Here's the transformation.

Speaker 0

以前经理给新人入职,一套流程下来得花好几个小时。

When a manager used to onboard a new hire, the old process would take hours.

Speaker 0

得在 Slack 里喊一嗓子,再发邮件找 IT,还得等审批。

They'd ping Slack, email IT, wait on approvals.

Speaker 0

结果新人干等着,一等就是好几天。

Meanwhile, new hires sit around for days.

Speaker 0

现在用 Servo,经理在 Slack 里说一声,就能启动入职流程。

With Servo, a manager asked to onboard a new hire in Slack.

Speaker 0

AI会自动在几秒钟内完成所有权限分配,并确保必要的审批都到位。

The AI provisions access to everything automatically in seconds with necessary approvals.

Speaker 0

IT部门根本不用插手。

IT never touches it.

Speaker 0

像Perplexity、Verkada和Mercur这样的公司,上线后马上就把一半以上的工单给自动化了。

Companies like Perplexity, Verkada, and Mercur automated over half their tickets immediately after setup.

Speaker 0

如果我要用这类产品,我肯定就选这个。

If I needed this product, it's exactly what I would use.

Speaker 0

Servo正在为Perplexity、Mercur、Verkada和Clay这些全球增长最快的企业提供动力。

Servo powers the fastest growing companies in the world like Perplexity, Mercur, Verkada, and Clay.

Speaker 0

让你的团队摆脱客服工单,回归真正喜欢的工作。

Get your team out of the help desk and back to the work they enjoy.

Speaker 0

马上去serval.com/bigtech预约免费试用吧。

Book your free pilot at serval.com/bigtech.

Speaker 0

就是serval.com/bigtech。

That's serval.com/bigtech.

Speaker 0

我在这档节目里采访过很多优秀的科技创始人,有一个出人意料的共同难题反复出现——找一个合适的域名。

I've interviewed a lot of great tech founders on this show, and one surprisingly universal challenge comes up again and again, finding the right domain name.

Speaker 0

我当初做‘Big Technology’的时候,自己也碰过这事儿。

It's something I ran into myself when launching big technology.

Speaker 0

你想要的名字八成早被人抢了,这时候很容易就想凑合着用一个算了。

The names you want are often taken, and it's tempting to just settle and move on.

Speaker 0

但我最敬佩的那些创始人,从不在根本问题上将就,域名就是其中之一。

But the founders I respect most don't settle on fundamentals, and your name is one of them.

Speaker 0

你的域名得让人一眼就明白你到底在做什么。

It should immediately signal what you actually build.

Speaker 0

这正是我喜欢.dot tech这种域名的地方。

That's what I appreciate about dot tech domain names.

Speaker 0

顺理成章,再自然不过。

It just makes sense.

Speaker 0

它直接告诉世界、你的客户、投资人,还有任何搜你的人都在说:我们是搞科技的。

It tells the world, your customers, your investors, anyone googling you that you're building in technology.

Speaker 0

简洁直接,不加修饰。

Clean, direct, no qualifiers.

Speaker 0

我看到越来越多认真的初创公司开始用这个。

And I'm seeing more serious startups lean into it.

Speaker 0

Nothing.tech、1x.tech、aurora.ces.tech、ultra.tech、alice.tech、neuron.tech、blaze.tech、pie.tech,还有好多好多。

Nothing.tech, 1x.tech, aurora.ces.tech, ultra.tech, alice.tech, neuron.tech, blaze.tech, pie.tech, and so many more.

Speaker 0

如果你做的东西是技术驱动的,别将就。

If you're building something tech first, don't settle.

Speaker 0

赶紧从你喜欢的注册商那儿抢个.tech域名,从第一天起就让别人一眼看懂你是干嘛的。

Secure your dot tech domain from any registrar of your choice and make your positioning obvious from day one.

Speaker 0

我们又回到《大科技》播客的周五特辑了。

And we're back here on big technology podcast Friday edition.

Speaker 0

今天照例请来了Margins的Ranjan Roy,我们得聊聊从加州门洛帕克传来的几个让人心里发沉的消息。

We're here with Ranjan Roy of Margins as we typically are on Fridays, and we have kind of a depressing story or set of stories out of Menlo Park, California.

Speaker 0

这事儿来自彭博社。

This is from Bloomberg.

Speaker 0

Meta通知员工,公司将裁员10%,并推动提效。

Meta tells staff it will cut 10% of jobs and push for efficiency.

Speaker 0

Meta平台计划裁员约8000人,占总员工数的10%,目的是提升效率,缓解在人工智能上巨额投入带来的压力。

Meta platforms plans to cut 10% of workers or roughly 8,000 employees in an effort to boost efficiency and offset its heavy spending on artificial intelligence.

Speaker 0

公司已公布这一决定,并在周四向员工发送了内部备忘录。

The company disclosed the move, and a memo sent to employees Thursday.

Speaker 0

Meta还将冻结6000个原本计划招聘的岗位。

Meta also won't hire employ hire workers for 6,000 open roles that it had intended to fill.

Speaker 0

就在CEO马克·扎克伯格大手笔投入人才和基础设施,全力开发包括大模型和聊天机器人在内的顶尖AI产品之际,公司却开始裁员。

The cut the job cuts come as chief executive officer Mark Zuckerberg is spending aggressively on the talent and infrastructure needed to develop state of the art artificial intelligence products, including LMs and chatbots.

Speaker 0

这还没完,再来看看路透社的报道。

Well, as if that was not enough, this is from Reuters.

Speaker 0

Meta将开始收集员工的鼠标移动和键盘输入,用作AI训练数据。

Meta to start capturing employee mouse movements, keystrokes for AI training data.

Speaker 0

据路透社看到的一份内部备忘录显示,Meta正在美国员工的电脑上安装新的行为追踪软件,记录鼠标移动、点击和键盘输入,用来训练AI模型,这是公司打造能自主完成工作任务的AI助手的更大计划的一部分。

Meta is installing new traffic tracking software on US based employees' computers to capture mouse movements, clicks, and keystrokes for use in training its artificial intelligence models, part of a broad initiative to build AI agents that can perform work tasks autonomy, the company told staffers in an internal memo seen by Reuters.

Speaker 0

一方面,大裁员。

One hand, laying people off.

Speaker 0

另一方面,留下的员工还得配合,让自己的鼠标移动、键盘输入,还有所有电脑操作都变成训练AI的数据。

On the other hand, those that stay have the pleasure of their movements and keystrokes and whatever they're doing on their computers being used to train AI.

Speaker 0

你咋看?

Your reaction.

Speaker 1

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 1

咱们分开说。

Let's separate out the two.

Speaker 1

先说第一点,说实话,这事儿我没觉得多震惊,但真没想到,这么多年来,他们在元宇宙和现实实验室上砸了那么多钱,居然从没想过要控制成本。

The first, it actually shocked me, or it didn't shock me, but it's just it's incredible to me that for years on the metaverse spending and Reality Labs, they never would tie any kind of cost cutting efforts.

Speaker 1

那所谓的‘效率年’到底算啥?

The entire year of efficiency what was that?

Speaker 1

是2024年吗?

2024?

Speaker 1

2023年?

2023?

Speaker 0

对,2023年。

'23.

Speaker 1

2023年?

'23?

Speaker 1

他从来没直接说,这是因为我们在元宇宙上花太多钱了。

Like, he never directly attributed it to because we are spending so much on the metaverse.

Speaker 1

更让人觉得不可思议的是,现在为了弥补在人工智能上的巨额投入,居然裁了八千人。

And it's kind of, like, amazing that now we are cutting 8,000 people to offset our heavy spending on artificial intelligence.

Speaker 1

市场嘛,我懂,他们爱听这个。

So the market, I get, loves hearing that.

Speaker 1

投资者也爱听这个。

So investors love hearing that.

Speaker 1

大家肯定会继续这么干,但我真说不准。

So people will continue to do it, but I don't know.

Speaker 1

我觉得,这些公司明明知道这么做能短期拉升股价,就拿这个当沟通策略,这真的对吗?

I I feel do you think it's the right way to communicate for these companies just because they know it'll pop their stock into the short run?

Speaker 0

我觉得这根本不是沟通的问题。

Well, this is one I don't think is about comms at all.

Speaker 0

我觉得他们真的是在践行自己说过的话。

I think this is legitimately, like, they are doing what they said they're doing.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

他们确实是在……

They are

Speaker 1

是公司之前招太多人、人浮于事,现在该瘦身了?我觉得很多大公司,尤其是过去五年,确实如此。还是说,他们真就是想省钱,好把钱投到人工智能上?

Is is it overhiring in a bloated company that just needs to actually trim itself, which is, I think, very true for many, many of these big companies, especially over the last five years, or is it really, like, we need to cut costs so we can invest more in artificial intelligence?

Speaker 0

我觉得是后者。

I think it's the latter.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,他们在AI上已经砸了太多钱了。

I mean, they've spent so much money on AI.

Speaker 0

他们正在投钱建数据中心。

They're spending on the data centers.

Speaker 0

如果你没利润,市场可不会买账。

The market is actually much less forgiving if you don't have margins.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

他们确实能在AI上看到回报,毕竟AI帮他们优化了创意工作流。

And they they don't have they mean they have some ROI on the AI because it's helping optimize their creative stack.

Speaker 0

最近不是有新闻说,他们马上就要超过谷歌,成为最大的广告业务了嘛。

And I think there was a headline recently that they're gonna pass Google as largest advertising business.

Speaker 0

他们能看到这些成果,但他们自己并不是那种靠AI算力需求暴涨受益的平台。

So they see that the results there, but they're not a platform that's sort of benefiting from this surge in demand for AI compute.

Speaker 0

他们也没搞出什么超级人工智能。

They haven't built super AI super intelligence.

Speaker 0

所以他们现在处境尴尬,没法再这么臃肿下去了,尤其是还没拿到最顶尖的模型。

So they are in a position where they cannot remain this bloated, especially as they don't have the leading model.

Speaker 0

但话说回来,

Well but,

Speaker 1

他们平时花的钱可不少。

normally, they've spent a lot of money.

Speaker 1

光说‘我们要多花钱’,这可没法让人安心。

So just saying we will spend more money to me isn't a reassuring message.

Speaker 1

作为 headline 听起来,好像挺好的。

Like, at the as a headline, it sounds like, okay.

Speaker 1

这事儿没错。

This is good.

Speaker 1

钱根本不是问题。

This is whatever it needs to be doing, but, like, money has not been the problem.

Speaker 1

几个月前,他们出多少钱请人来?

What were they paying people couple of months ago to join?

Speaker 0

我的意思是,说来搞笑,他们为了请亚历山大·王,真花了整整一百五十亿美元。

I mean, they basically I mean, this is facetious, but they effectively spent, 15,000,000,000 to hire Alexander Wang.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,再多花钱根本解决不了问题。

I mean, all so so more money is not the answer.

Speaker 1

所以,如果公司真的臃肿了,他想瘦身,搞点扎克伯格式的效率年那种操作,我懂。

So, like, again, I get if the company is just bloated, if he wants to kind of, like, start to make things leaner, go into Zuck beast mode, year of efficiency type stuff.

Speaker 1

要说谁能比别人更擅长干这事儿,那肯定是扎克伯格。

I I mean, I if anyone is able to do that well and better than others, it's Zuckerberg.

Speaker 1

但我也不确定。

But, like, I don't know.

Speaker 1

光说能多投钱,我还是不太信这套。

Just because it means we'll be able to invest more, I still I don't quite buy that.

Speaker 1

但这跟核心追踪是两码事。

But that's separate from the key tracking.

Speaker 1

那

That

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

说说这个。

Talk about that.

Speaker 1

这事儿吧,从技术角度讲,其实还挺有意思的,虽然挺吓人的。

I it's one of those that it starts to makes like, purely technically, it's almost kinda interesting.

Speaker 1

就是说,大家是不是都在训练模型,重复做那些事儿——效率是高了,但也就那样。

Like, if it's terrifying, but it's interesting in terms of is everyone essentially training models to do the things they're doing repetitively, which is efficient, I guess.

Speaker 1

那既然这样,你干嘛还待在那儿呢?

I guess, like, yeah, why do you work there then?

Speaker 1

我觉得,如果目标是能让人有点儿干劲儿,那或许还行。

I think if the goal is maybe there could be an inspiring alright.

Speaker 1

这是我自己的想法。

Here's my attempt here.

Speaker 1

以后,你真正要做的工作,我觉得,就是把信息从系统A传到系统B,做个简单的汇报,再加点你自己的小分析,当个大流程里的一颗螺丝钉——这种活儿,根本算不上什么知识工作。

In the future, the type of work you will need to be doing is, and I believe this, like, moving a little bit of information from system a to system b, making a little presentation around it, doing a little kind of, like, adding your own tiny bit of insider analysis and being that cog in a larger process is not going to be a lot of knowledge work.

Speaker 1

所以扎克伯格可能站出来说:我是在为你们所有人铺路,让你们成为所有科技公司员工里,最能适应未来需求的人。

So maybe Zuckerberg can stand up, and he can just be like, I am preparing you all for the future so you can be the best positioned out of any kind of tech company employee to kind of meet the needs of this future.

Speaker 1

这就是我想传达的励志观点。

That's my inspiring message behind this.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,我希望他真这么干的时候,是躲在办公室里,对着会议电话说的——要是他在Meta食堂当众这么说,肯定得被蔬菜砸死。

Mean, I hope he'd I hope he'd be doing it, like, you know, locked in his office on like a conference room phone because he would get vegetables thrown at him from the Meta cafeteria if he said that.

Speaker 0

回顾历史上这种劳动形态的转型,以前有个叫泰勒制的东西,工厂里工人的一举一动都被测量,逼着他们做到最高效。

You know, in in the history of of labor and trends transitions of this nature, there was a practice back in the day called Taylorism, where they they measured the movements of people working in the factory, and they got them to move as efficiently as possible.

Speaker 0

他们 literally 控制工人的每一个动作,像机器一样,不许有一丝浪费。

They literally controlled their movement to, be like a machine, so there wouldn't be any wasted movement.

Speaker 0

后来,这些人很多就被机器取代了。

And then eventually, they replaced many of them with machines.

Speaker 0

我就是觉得,这种故事最后从来不会对打工人有利。

I just don't see stories like this, ending, in the right way for the worker.

Speaker 0

不过呢,这里有个挺有意思的小插曲——你还记得Scale AI吗?亚历山大·王?当然记得。

And, I will say there's one interesting wrinkle here, which is that, do you remember Scale AI, Alexander Wang's Of course.

Speaker 0

公司。

Company.

Speaker 0

他们最近告诉我,他们大部分训练用的是强化学习,就是搭建一些环境,哦。

They told me recently that most of the training that they're doing is reinforcement learning, where you build environments Oh.

Speaker 0

让机器人进去自己摸索该怎么做。

For the bots, and they go and they try to figure out what to do.

Speaker 0

那你要怎么才能打造出这么棒的强化学习环境呢?

And, well, if you're what do you need to do to build these great reinforcement learning environments?

Speaker 0

你得给他们看各种表单、网页操作这些,然后让他们模仿出来。

You sort of need to show them forms and web behavior and stuff like that, and then you try to get them to model it.

Speaker 0

要是亚历山大·王在Meta内部干的就是这事儿,我一点都不惊讶——换句话说,这根本不是什么彻底的AI自动化,而是在给机器人建健身房,好让它们有更多环境练强化学习。

And, with Alexander Wang within Meta, I wouldn't be stunned if that is what's happening is that, you know, maybe the the other way to read this is instead of, like, a a complete AI automation move, it is effectively building gyms for bots that need more environments to do reinforcement learning within.

Speaker 1

这太有意思了。

That is fascinating.

Speaker 1

如果亚历山大·王被收购后真能这么创造价值,那150亿美元花得还真值。

And and if Alexander Wang is adding value post acquisition in this way, maybe that 15,000,000,000 was was worth it.

Speaker 1

我其实挺震惊的。

I I was kind of fascinated.

Speaker 1

他们压根就没否认这事儿真的在发生。

Like, they also there was no denial at all of this happening.

Speaker 1

报道里提到,CTO安德鲁·博兹在评论区直接说,你用公司配的电脑,就没得选。

Like, part of the reporting was that the CTO, Andrew Boz, like, he responded in the thread that there's no option out of this on your work provided laptop.

Speaker 1

这条评论底下全是哭脸、震惊脸和愤怒的表情符号。

This comment received a mix of crying, shocked, and angry face emojis.

Speaker 1

不过,Meta官方对《商业内幕》的回应是,他们有安全措施保护敏感内容,数据不会挪作他用。

But, also, the official response from Meta to Business Insider was, there are safeguards in place to protect sensitive content, and the data is not used for any other purpose.

Speaker 1

真让我没想到,他们居然就这么直说了。

Like, they it is amazing to me that they just they said it.

Speaker 1

一点都没想退缩,就照着干。

There's no backing off of what they're doing.

Speaker 1

这事儿简直太离谱了。

So so this is this is kinda nuts.

Speaker 1

这事儿真在发生。

It's happening.

Speaker 0

太疯狂了。

Crazy.

Speaker 0

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我以前干过的几份工作,真不希望这软件装在那台电脑上——反正我也没正事干,整天就刷collegehumor.com。

There's definitely a few jobs that I've held in my life that I really would not want this software to be installed on, because I had nothing to do and spent a lot of time on my collegehumor.com.

Speaker 1

你想想,要是所有人都在Twitter上摸鱼,不干活,那AI训练的数据不就全是这些玩意儿?

See, this is actually, imagine if everyone is just on Twitter, is not not doing work, and that's what all the training data is received.

Speaker 1

然后这些AI助手一上线,就开始干活,结果呢?刷着刷着就跑去Instagram了,接着就……

And, like, the the the agents just, like, they start he starts to put him to work, and then they're just scrolling, and then they go to Instagram, and then they're like

Speaker 0

你迟早会看到这些助手的。

You're gonna see these agents.

Speaker 0

你说得对。

You're right.

Speaker 0

它们会被安排帮你做演示文稿之类的活儿。

They're gonna be tasked with, like, you know, writing a deck for you.

Speaker 0

它会直接接管你的电脑。

You're gonna have it take over your computer.

Speaker 0

干到一半,它就开始刷YouTube,看狗玩滑板的视频。

Midway through, it's gonna be on YouTube watching dogs on skateboards.

Speaker 0

你肯定得问:这到底在搞什么鬼?

And you're gonna be like, what's going on here?

Speaker 0

它还觉得:哦,原来这样才算正经上班。

It's like, well, I learned that this is the right way to do work.

Speaker 1

相信数据吧。

Trust the data.

Speaker 1

相信数据吧。

Trust the data.

Speaker 1

相信训练结果吧。

Trust the training.

Speaker 0

我敢打赌,最后肯定会冒出个荒唐的研究,说那些会拖延的AI模型反而比死守任务的更有效。

I'm sure we'll end up seeing some ridiculous study about this, and it'll be like AI models that procrastinate are actually more effective than AI models that stick to task.

Speaker 1

说起来,你有没有看过那个采访?我觉得她好像是Anthropic的伦理专家。

Actually, did you see I think she was like the Anthropic Ethicist.

Speaker 1

网上现在到处都在传那个采访视频。

There's all these videos going around around, like, this interview.

Speaker 1

大概意思就是,她负责理解Claude这个模型背后的情感机制,你知道的,就是那种……

Basically, the idea was like, she was she's like the one who's under supposed to understand, like, the emotional underpinnings of Claude and the model and, like

Speaker 0

哦,对对对。

Oh, yeah.

Speaker 0

刚才在聊Amanda的事。

Was talking about Amanda

Speaker 1

是Askel。

Askel.

Speaker 1

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

而且它还会焦虑。

And how it is anxious.

Speaker 1

所以啊,不如让你的助手看看YouTube,顺便刷刷X。

And so maybe you should let your agent watch a little YouTube, surf a little x.

Speaker 1

这样反而能更高效地把事儿办了。

Just it will get the job done in a more efficient way.

Speaker 1

你逼得太紧,它反而干不好。

When you push it too hard, it's it's just not gonna do a good job.

Speaker 1

给它点喘息的空间。

Give it a break.

Speaker 0

我们不都得歇歇吗?

Don't don't we all don't we all need a break?

Speaker 0

谁不需要暂时放下手头的事,去做点完全没意义的事呢?

Don't we all just need some time to divert from task and try something completely meaningless?

Speaker 0

这才叫真正的人类生活啊。

That's the that's what being human is all about.

Speaker 1

如果你是Meta的员工,它会通过追踪你的行为来不断学习。

And it will learn as it tracks your behavior if you're a Meta employee.

Speaker 0

我都能想象到,那些Meta员工整天拿着手机刷视频,却让AI代劳干些蠢事。

I could just imagine all these Meta employees, like, built having AI token max doing some dumb shit while spending the whole day, like, watching videos on the phone.

Speaker 1

新的

The new

Speaker 0

这就是2026年工作的未来。

that is that is the future of work in 2026.

Speaker 1

如果现在《硅谷》这部剧还在播,我猜肯定会有新版,毕竟素材多得是。

If there's a Silicon Valley if that show existed now, I wonder if there'll be a new version of that, but there's just so much material.

Speaker 0

现在想讽刺都难了,因为这事儿已经离谱到极致了。

Kinda hard to parody at this point because it is so

Speaker 1

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

荒唐得不行。

Ridiculous as it is.

Speaker 1

没错。

Right.

Speaker 1

根本没法调侃了。

There's no parody.

Speaker 0

行吧。

Alright.

Speaker 0

听好了。

So look.

Speaker 0

我们这几个月一直在准备材料,对比流媒体平台的价格,现在正好有个机会好好吐槽一下。

As as we come to a close, we've had this basically comparison of streaming prices, in our prep doc for weeks now, and we have an opening for a rant.

Speaker 0

那你就来收个尾吧,拉詹,跟大伙儿说说这流媒体涨价到底是怎么回事,意味着什么?

So why don't you take us home, Ranjan, with a little exposition here on the increase in streaming prices and what it means?

Speaker 1

劳工统计局的数据说,去年消费者价格指数上涨了2.6%。

So the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that the consumer price index rise in the last year was 2.6%.

Speaker 1

可我呢,这些年订了一堆流媒体服务,根本不知道该砍哪个——儿子死活不让停Disney+,老婆更离谱,说Netflix、HBO、Hulu、Peacock这些一个都不能少。

Now as someone who subscribed to too many streaming services over the last years and does not know when to cut what and has a son who won't let them cut Disney plus and a wife who said the idea of Netflix or HBO ever leaving or even Hulu or Peacock, you know, these things.

Speaker 1

我很好奇,因为前几天奈飞刚把个人套餐涨到15.99美元,但同时把能同时用的设备数量砍得特别死。

So I I was curious because Netflix the other day just raised prices to $15.99 for the individual plan, but they severely restrict you in number of devices.

Speaker 1

我现在每个月花27美元,简直离谱。

So I think I'm paying $27 now, which is insane.

Speaker 1

所以我回头去查了下。

So I went back and looked.

Speaker 1

从2019年开始算,那时候还没疫情,我想看看这些服务到底涨了多少。

It since 2019 because I was kind of, like, pre pandemic, how much have prices gone up?

Speaker 1

大家都知道,以前流媒体这生意根本赚不到钱,对其他公司来说就是个引流工具,只有奈飞还算有点盈利。

And we all knew there was this moment where the streaming business did not make sense, and this was a loss leader for all these companies other than Netflix.

Speaker 1

迪士尼Plus刚上线的时候才6.99美元。

So Disney Plus came out at $6.99.

Speaker 1

现在涨到了18.99美元。

It's currently $18.99.

Speaker 1

Hulu从11.99涨到了18.99。

Hulu went from $11.99 to $18.99.

Speaker 1

HBO Max 其实主打高端定位,现在也从14.99涨到18.99了。

HBO Max, actually, to their premium positioning, only $14.99 to $18.99 now.

Speaker 1

Peacock 从5块直接涨到11块。

Peacock, basically $5 to $11.

Speaker 1

Paramount+ 从5块涨到8块。

Paramount plus, 5 to $8.

Speaker 1

Apple TV 呢,还是老样子,我真受不了他们这服务模式,以前才5块,现在直接涨到13块一个月。

Apple TV, again, going back to my hatred of their services business now, comes in at $5, bundles you in.

Speaker 1

现在一个月要13块了。

Now it's $13 a month.

Speaker 1

这些服务我都搞不懂了,真不知道该怎么选。

Like, all of these things, I think I don't know.

Speaker 1

一算每月开销,就得琢磨着该砍掉哪个。

When you look at your monthly expenses, then deciding what you're gonna have to cut.

Speaker 1

这种事儿到处都是。

And you see this across everything.

Speaker 1

这其实也是优步那种心态。

It was the Uber mentality as well.

Speaker 1

但我真说不好。

But I think I don't know.

Speaker 1

我一直在想,是不是该有个针对普通科技用户、科技圈内人、那种收入不错、懂科技又离不开这些服务的人的通胀指标?

I I would I was thinking, like, there needs to be an inflation metric relative to the average, probably big technology listener, tech industry participant, just kind of like, I don't know, just, like, upwardly mobile tech savvy person that is just stuck subscribing to all this.

Speaker 1

Spotify的价格也涨了吗?

Do you Spotify has been jacked up as well?

Speaker 1

可就是没人抱怨。

And there's no backlash.

Speaker 1

根本没人组织起来大规模取消这些订阅。

There's no big consumer, like, movement to actually, like, cancel these services.

Speaker 1

你有取消哪个吗?

Are you cutting any of these?

Speaker 0

我试过一阵子,只留一个最常使用的,但最后还是放弃了。

I I have tried for a while to, like, just be subscribed to the one that I use most often, but I've given up.

Speaker 0

我真是烦透了,老是忙着取消Netflix,过阵子又得重新订回来,搞来搞去的。

I'm, like, quite fatigued at, like, trying to cancel Netflix and then reinstalling it and stuff like that.

Speaker 0

所以现在我又把Netflix续上了。

So now I have Netflix.

Speaker 0

Prime Video、HBO我都有,还有那个Paramount Plus,我好像花了三十块买了一年的会员。

I have Prime Video, HBO, and I think I think I subscribed to, like, Paramount plus for, like, $30 for the year.

Speaker 0

我想看那个用AI做的《南方公园》。

I wanted to watch the South Parks with the AI.

Speaker 1

那你还得有Peacock看英超,Paramount Plus还得看NFL。

So But then you have Peacock for Premier League, Paramount and NFL, Paramount plus for NFL.

Speaker 1

我也不晓得。

I don't know.

Speaker 1

我去爸妈家的时候,他们还在用有线电视,那会儿我居然有点想回去了。

I like, it is interesting to me that I was at my parents' place who still have cable, and it actually kind of made me miss cable.

Speaker 1

我也不懂。

And I don't know.

Speaker 1

我觉得他们花了一百八十块,但我现在花得比这还多。

I think they're spending, like, a $180, which I think I'm spending more now.

Speaker 0

真是疯了。

But Crazy.

Speaker 1

这一波AI热潮最后会不会让我们反而怀念起以前流媒体刚兴起时的日子,甚至想回过去有线电视的时代?

Is is all this AI hype gonna end up with us longing for the days of basically what streaming has done, make me wish and miss cable?

Speaker 1

真会这样吗?

Is that what's gonna happen?

Speaker 0

首先,情况只会变得更糟,有两个原因。

Well, first of all, it's just gonna get worse for two reasons.

Speaker 0

一个是行业开始合并了。

One is we're starting to see consolidation in the space.

Speaker 0

你看Netflix已经明显胜出了,接下来派拉蒙和华纳兄弟探索频道也要合并了。

Like, you have Netflix as this clear winner, and then, and then Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery are gonna tie up.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

所以啊,你会发现,其实这两家互相制衡倒也不是坏事。

So, like, you're gonna see well, it is actually good that the two will balance each other out.

Speaker 0

但那种每个流媒体平台都互相乱打价格战、谁也不服谁的日子,估计要没了。

But like the days of every streamer competing with every streamer kind of uneven footing in price matters.

Speaker 0

这种局面好像正在消失。

It seems to be away.

Speaker 0

真的快消失了。

Seems to be going away.

Speaker 0

再加上AI靠分析人的观看习惯,现在还逼着员工每天上班至少看五小时奈飞,这简直就是给我们所有人挖的坑,迟早要被坑惨。

And then, of course, with AI trained on human screen behavior, they now are required to watch at least five hours of Netflix during the workday, and that is a demand signal that we're all gonna get screwed by.

Speaker 1

然后苹果和Ternus说不定能搞定一切,把所有订阅服务都拆了,搞成一个真让人期待、不让人觉得被绑架的产品。

And then Apple and Ternus will somehow solve it all and unbundle all their subscription services and actually make it just a product I'm excited about and I don't feel trapped by.

Speaker 0

苹果确实有这个能力这么做。

That is something that Apple could do.

Speaker 0

所以也许他们真会干。

So maybe they will.

Speaker 1

苹果,再说说那个iCloud照片的事儿吧,真是服了。

Apple Again, iCloud freaking photos.

Speaker 1

我每个月付40刀,真不知道图啥。

I'm paying $40 a month.

Speaker 1

我甚至都不明白这到底是怎么运作的。

I don't even know how.

Speaker 1

它居然直接警告我,说我们家是家庭套餐,如果不续费,你这辈子就再也看不到自己的照片了。

It literally was telling me that, Like, it was telling me telling my wife we're on a family plan, like, you will lose access to your photos your entire life.

Speaker 1

这意思就是,不交钱就跟你拼命,苹果现在就是这么搞服务的。

Like, if you do not pay us gun to head, that is the Apple services business model now.

Speaker 0

他们确实有这套操作,我得承认。

They certainly have I will say this.

Speaker 0

他们确实有这么些商业手段。

They certainly have some business practices in there.

Speaker 0

Ternus当然也得赚钱,这事儿得闭环,但希望他能想想,这要是成了他的标签,那可太丢人了,别干这种事儿了,真恶心。

So, I mean, Ternus, of course, will have to make make money to bring a full circle, but, hopefully, he, like, looks at this and just realizes it's gonna be his legacy and decides not to do stuff like this because that sucks.

Speaker 1

埃迪,你觉得这个桌面机器人会带来订阅收入吗?

Eddie, do you think there's subscription revenue tied to the tabletop robot?

Speaker 0

但愿如此。

I hope so.

Speaker 0

但愿如此。

I hope so.

Speaker 1

这是按使用量计费,按令牌收费的。

It's consumption based, token based.

Speaker 1

就这模式。

That's it.

Speaker 1

它每动一下,就得扣一次费。

Every time it moves Oh

Speaker 0

我的天啊。

my god.

Speaker 1

它越复杂,你手机上收到的提醒就越多。

The more complex it does, you just get an iPhone notification.

Speaker 1

又扣你钱了。

You've been charged another.

Speaker 0

我的天。

Oh my god.

Speaker 0

我都能想象出那个广告了。

I can just imagine the ad.

Speaker 0

画面从黑屏缓缓亮起。

The scene fades in from black.

Speaker 0

旁边摆着一张漂亮的玻璃桌,桌上放着一个桌面机器人,它手上还连着一块屏幕,站着的正是拉詹·罗伊。

Standing in next to a beautiful glass table with a tabletop robot and a screen attached to its hand is one Ranjan Roy.

Speaker 0

广告就这么开头。

Here's how the ad begins.

Speaker 0

嗨。

Hi.

Speaker 0

我是拉詹·罗伊。

I'm Ranjan Roy.

Speaker 0

希望你挺享受你那个桌面机器人,也希望你继续每月付10.99美元,就为了能把你家东西都存下来。

I hope you're enjoying your tabletop robot, and I hope you keep paying $10.99 a month for the for the pleasure of being able to preserve everything in your house.

Speaker 0

等你一停订阅,我就让这些机器人把你家砸个稀巴烂。

Because once your subscription lasts, I will be using these robots to smash your shit up.

Speaker 1

这就是Ternus的商业模式,股价肯定飞涨。

That's that is the Ternus business model, and the stock is gonna skyrocket.

Speaker 1

就这。

That's it.

Speaker 1

就这。

That's it.

Speaker 1

现在咱们总算搞明白这桌面机器人是干嘛的了。

Now we figured it we at least figured it out figured out what the tabletop robot is for.

Speaker 1

瞧见没。

There it is.

Speaker 0

纯粹是吓唬人罢了。

Merely a threat.

Speaker 0

这纯粹就是个威胁,逼你继续交服务费。

It's merely a threat to keep paying your services bill.

Speaker 1

总得有点啥吧。

Gotta have something.

Speaker 1

那玩意儿能把你直接干飞。

That thing will knock you the fuck out of you.

Speaker 0

这才叫创新,咱们这期《科技大观》周五特辑,又得这么收尾了。

Now that is innovation, and that is how we will end another week here on big technology podcast, Friday edition.

Speaker 0

拉詹,老样子,见到你真高兴。

Ranjan, great to see you as always.

Speaker 0

再次感谢你

Thank you again for

Speaker 1

来参加节目。

coming on.

Speaker 1

下周见。

Next week.

Speaker 0

没什么是安全的。

Nothing is safe.

Speaker 0

好了,各位。

Alright, everybody.

Speaker 0

谢谢收听,我们下期再见,欢迎回来收听《科技大观》。

Thanks for listening, and we'll see you next time on big technology podcast.

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