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大型科技公司在AI上的实际投入比表面看起来要多出数万亿美元。
Big tech is spending trillions more on AI than it appears on the surface.
这是不是一个明显的危险信号?
Is it a glaring red flag?
OpenAI和Anthropic的最新数据表明,一家公司正在飞速发展,而另一家则步履蹒跚。另外,我们是不是应该更多地讨论AI在旅行场景中的应用?
New OpenAI and Anthropic numbers show one company surging and another sputtering, and should we actually be talking about AI for travel use cases more?
这些内容将在《大科技播客》周五版中呈现,本期节目特邀Ranjan Roy荣耀回归,敬请期待。
That's coming up on a Big Technology Podcast Friday edition featuring Ranjan Roy's glorious return right after this.
欢迎收听《大科技播客》周五版,我们将以一贯的冷静编辑和细致分析来解读新闻。
Welcome to Big Technology Podcast Friday edition where we break down the news in our traditional cool edit and nuanced format.
今天为大家准备了一期精彩的节目。
We have a great show for you today.
我们将深入探讨大型科技公司为了支持AI建设而进行的表外借贷和支出,这一动向可能为AI建设额外投入高达3万亿美元,远超表面所见。
We're gonna talk all about the off balance sheet borrowing and spending that Big Tech is doing to enable the AI build out and a, movement that is potentially, putting $3,000,000,000,000 more towards the AI build out than it even looks like on the surface.
所以,我们马上进入正题。
So we're gonna get into that.
我们还拿到了Anthropic和OpenAI最新的营收数据。
We also have new Anthropic and OpenAI revenue numbers.
这些公司健康吗?
Are the companies healthy?
它们走向IPO的时候,情况看起来怎么样?
What does it look like as they move towards their a towards their IPOs?
最后我们会讨论一个话题:在评估AI产品表现时,我们是不是真的应该聊聊旅行场景的应用。
And then we will close with the debate on whether we should actually talk about, travel use cases when it comes assessing the performance of AI products.
Ranjan和我在这点上一直有分歧,而我经过几周的旅行后,现在觉得自己有底气坚定地站在支持的一方,看看Ranjan会不会坚持他的立场。
Ranjan and I have been at odds on that one, and now I feel strong enough after a couple weeks of travel to be firmly in the pro camp, and we'll see if Ranjan sticks to his guns.
那么,Ranjan,很高兴再次见到你。
So, Ranjan, great to see you again.
欢迎回到节目。
Welcome back to the show.
见到你真好,兄弟。
It's good to see you, man.
我们在这里是做什么来着?
What do we do here again?
已经好久了。
It's been so long.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我们看一堆数字,然后说,我觉得我们今天会做很多这样的事。
We look at a bunch of numbers and say, I think we'll we'll do plenty of that today.
嗯,我很高兴回来。
Well, I'm excited to be back.
很高兴回来。
Excited to be back.
我也是。
Me
我也是。
too.
我差不多快回到纽约了,从印尼飞到迪拜,然后明天再飞回纽约。
I've almost made it back to New York, flown from Indonesia to Dubai, and then back to New York on a flight tomorrow.
挺期待的。
Excited about it.
当这波IPO热潮升温的时候,我觉得很多——我特别指的是OpenAI和Anthropic。
When this IPO season heats up, I think a lot of and I'm talking specifically about OpenAI and Anthropic.
我觉得会有大量的审视,看看这波AI热潮能不能持续,以及那些支撑我们今天看到的增长的人,是否有能力继续支撑下去。
I think there's gonna be a great amount of scrutiny to whether whether this AI boom is sustainable and whether those backing a lot of the growth that we're seeing today are are going to be in a position to sustain it.
我们今天会好好聊聊这个话题。
And we're gonna talk a lot about that today.
我觉得我们首先应该从《华尔街日报》的这篇精彩报道开始,它讲了一些我们其实都知道背后在发生的事,但真正把数字拼在一起,写得非常好。
And I think the first place that we should really start is this great story by the Wall Street Journal, which talked about something that I think we all knew was going on behind the surface, but actually put the numbers together, and it's excellent.
这篇报道说,为什么大型科技公司在AI上的支出比看起来高出3万亿美元。
The story says why big techs AI spending is $3,000,000,000,000 higher than it seems.
我来读一小段。
I'll read a little bit of it.
每个季度,大型科技公司都会披露他们在人工智能基础设施上的巨额资本支出,从数据中心到芯片,但这些数字远不能反映他们未来承诺的全部支出,谷歌母公司Alphabet、Meta Platforms、甲骨文等许多公司都做出了这些承诺。
Each quarter, big tech companies disclose their massive capital expenditures and artificial intelligence infrastructure from data center to chips, but those figures don't come close to expressing the full extent of future spending to which Google parent Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle, and many others have committed.
这是因为他们未来大量的财务义务并没有体现在资产负债表上。
This is because a huge swath of their coming financial obligations aren't reflected on their balance sheets.
九家顶级科技公司有大约3万亿美元的资产负债表外承诺,主要与人工智能相关。
Nine, top tech companies had some $3,000,000,000,000 of off balance sheet commitments mostly related to AI.
这些义务的增长速度超过了传统的资本支出,过去一年报告的资本支出总额约为6000亿美元,而且这些义务是未偿租赁和长期借款的三倍。
Those obligations are growing faster than traditional CapEx, which totaled about 600,000,000,000 over the past year past year, they reported, and were triple what the companies owe under the outstanding leases and long term borrowings.
那么,Ranjan,我们接下来要稍微深入探讨一下这其中的机制,但我很想听听你简单解释一下,什么是资产负债表外承诺,以及为什么它在大科技公司中如此受欢迎,用来资助他们的人工智能基础设施投资。
So, Ranjan, we're gonna get a little bit into the mechanics of this, but I'd love to hear your you just sort of break down, what an off balance sheet commitment is and why this has become something that's so in favor among big tech to fund their AI infrastructure investments.
嗯,我认为就为什么它如此受欢迎而言,原因很清楚,因为它不会消耗你的现金。
Well, I think in terms of why it's so in favor, it's clear because it's just it does not draw down your cash.
记住,谷歌、Meta这些公司都是产生现金的业务。
Remember Google, Meta, these are cash generating operations.
他们的广告业务就是不断产生现金,所以通常情况下,如果他们想投资,直接动用已经积累的资金池,用那笔钱来建数据中心,似乎是一件非常标准的事情。
Mean for their advertising businesses just spit out cash, so the fact that normally if they want to invest, just simply reaching into that pool of money that you've already accumulated and using that to build a data center seems like a pretty standard thing that you want to do.
但显然,如果这些投资不用放在你的资产负债表上,而是通过一个完全外部的融资工具来进行,那会好得多。
But it would obviously be a lot better for you to not have to actually have any of that live on your balance sheet and create a completely external financing vehicle to actually make these investments.
真正有意思的地方在于,而且我的意思是,已经有很多——
Where it's gonna get really interesting and I mean, there's been
你继续说,解释一下这个表外融资的情况。
you go on, explain just explain the what what this off balance sheet situation is.
因为我觉得讨论一下这里涉及的机制很重要。
Because I think it's important to talk about the mechanisms that are involved here.
所以他们不直接花现金,那他们怎么做呢?
So instead of spending the cash, what do they do?
他们会和像Blue Owl这样的外部投资者合作,Blue Owl是其中比较有名的,他们会设立一个融资工具,然后可能和你一起筹集资金,但这个新资产不会出现在你的资产负债表上。
They you know, you work with Blue Owl is kind of one of the famous ones and the external investor, and they're going to actually set up this financing vehicle and then they're going to actually raise the money in potentially conjunction with you, but it's not going to live on your balance sheet, this new asset that you're creating.
相反,你会投入一些现金,或者用英伟达或其他公司的芯片作为抵押,有很多非常有创意的融资方式。
You're instead going to invest some amount of cash or Nvidia or all these others, there's all these other very creative ways that they're going to be using chips as collateral to actually raise this money.
但关键是,当你公布财报、向投资者展示公司状况时,这些数据中心不会直接出现在报表上。
But the main thing is, when you're reporting earnings, when you're actually showing investors the state of your business, these data centers do not live there directly.
所以这是一笔巨额投资,你巧妙地把它从资产负债表上挪走了,把风险分散给了其他人或其他资金池。
So it's a massive investment that you've managed to creatively push off your balance sheet and move and spread that risk to other people or other pools of capital.
而且我觉得,关于这和2007、2008年有多相似,我们已经聊了很多了。我觉得核心问题在于,你没有在传统的财务报表里反映这笔投资的风险,而整个这轮疯狂花钱就是这么进行的。
And I think, you know, we've there's been endless talk about what how this mirrors a lot of 2007, 2008, and I think that central point of not reflecting the risk of this investment you're making or gonna be depending on on your kind of traditional financials is how this entire spending spree is taking place.
对。
Yeah.
所以《华尔街日报》指出了一个例子,我觉得值得读一下,好具体说明这是怎么运作的。
So here's one example that the journal points out I think is worth reading just to flesh out exactly how this works.
它说Meta在路易斯安那州的巨型Hyperion数据中心项目,面积大概有1700个足球场那么大,这有助于解释这些债务是怎么从科技公司的资产负债表上消失的。
So it says Meta's gigantic Hyperion data center project in Louisiana, which is the size of about 1,700 football fields, helps explain how obligations wind up off tech companies' balance sheets.
虽然Meta是建设方,但Hyperion以及为它建设融资的270亿美元债务,都没有出现在Meta的资产负债表上。
Though Meta is the builder, neither Hyperion nor the 27,000,000,000 in debt that's financing its construction show up on Meta's balance sheet.
华尔街公司Blue Owl Capital管理的基金,你看,就是这家,持有一个合资企业的多数股权,而这个合资企业又拥有这个园区。
Funds managed by the Wall Street firm Blue Owl Capital, there you go, owns a majority of a joint venture that in turn owns the campus.
Beignet Investor,我得说,对于在路易斯安那州发生的事情来说,这真是个完美的投资者名字。
Beignet Investor, which I would say is the perfect named investor for something happening in Louisiana.
一家持有Blue Owl股份的控股公司通过发行债券筹集了建设资金。
A holding company that owns the Blue Owl stake raised the construction financing in a bond sale.
与此同时,Meta是Hyperion的少数股东兼租户。
Meanwhile, Meta is Hyperion's minority partner and tenant.
它的租金收入将用于偿还债券持有人的款项。
Its lease payments will provide the cash flows to help make the payments to bondholders.
所以,Ranjan,这看起来确实不太好。
So, Ranjan, this this just kind of it looks bad.
感觉有点不对劲。
It kind of smells.
我得说,就像你刚才提到的,我们开始看到一些公司,包括谷歌,首次出现负自由现金流,对吧,这对这些印钞机似的企业来说非常罕见。
I have to say it's like like you were saying, we're starting to see some companies, including Google, the first time go at a negative free cash flow, right, which is, like, very rare for these cash printing businesses.
而其他公司,比如Meta。
And the others, you have a company like Meta.
基本上,他们做的事情就是建数据中心,但风险或数字却由其他公司来承担。
Basically, what they're doing is they're they're building a data center, but the the, you know, the the risk or the the numbers are being held by this other company these other companies.
与此同时,Meta在这里做出了承诺。
And meanwhile, Meta is making the promise here.
这就是财务承诺。
This is the financial commitment.
Meta最初同意从2029年开始租赁Hyperion四年,并有权续租至多二十年。
Meta initially agreed to lease Hyperion for a four year term starting in 2029 with options to renew for up to twenty years.
它保证,如果Meta没有住满这二十年,会让债券持有人得到全额偿付。
It guaranteed that it would make bondholders whole if it doesn't stay the entire two decades.
公司认为根据该担保进行支付的可能性不大,因此未在资产负债表上记录任何负债。
The company doesn't think payments under the guarantee are probable, so it hasn't recorded any liability on its balance sheet.
我的意思是,这太疯狂了。
I mean, it's crazy.
基本上,大型科技公司正在做的是进行这些巨额投资。
Basically, what the big tech companies are doing is they're making these huge investments.
他们正在建立这些奇怪的财务链条,你知道,就是为了创造这些东西。
They're setting up these, like, weird financial, you know, sort of daisy chains to run, you know, to sort of create these things.
而且他们还在保证,基本上就是让这些实体,虽然它们不完全是那种空壳实体,但差不多就是那种东西,能够正常运转。
And they're guaranteeing that they're going to sort of make the the, you know, these it almost feels like cut out entities, even though they're not really cut out entities, but something close them.
他们说如果出了什么问题,他们会提供担保,确保这些实体不会亏钱。
They're said they're making guarantees to make them whole if if something goes wrong.
所以实际上,这就是他们的支出,只不过他们不想把这些都记在资产负债表上。
So effectively, this is this is their spending, and they're just, like, not all this to get on the balance sheet.
那你继续说吧。
So go ahead.
你来解释一下。
Go explain it.
这不是他们的支出。
It's not their spending.
我的意思是,这些钱主要不是来自这些公司的现金支出。
I mean, the money is gonna be coming from, again, it's not cash outlays from these companies for the most part.
有可能,这些是养老金基金的钱投进去的。
It's some, it's possible, I mean, this is pension fund money that's going into these.
这是私募股权资金,是从传统的机构投资资本池里筹集来的。
It's private equity money that's being raised from traditional kind of institutional investment pools of capital.
所以这不是他们自己的钱,而是别人的钱,再加上某种担保,而且通常甚至不是现金,就像英伟达那个情况一样。
So it's not their money, it's everyone else's money along with some kind of guarantee and typically it's not even cash again in the Nvidia situation.
所以我觉得对我来说,最大的问题在于,这就像一团乱麻,这种连锁关系就是为什么你需要这些报告和投行公司去试图算出这潜在的支出到底有多少。
So I think to me the biggest issue of this is it's like the tangled web, the daisy chain element of it is why you have to have these reports and investment bank firms trying to actually total up what this potential spending is.
就是说,这根本没有清晰地列出来,而且OpenAI和Anthropic是私营公司,我们待会儿会讨论它们的财务状况,我们其实一无所知,但谷歌和Meta,如果你是公开市场投资者,你买谷歌或Meta的股票,你应该知道风险是什么,以及他们业务的真实状况,而这并没有给你一个准确的反映。
Is that it's not clearly laid out in any way, and again, OpenAI and Anthropic private companies, we're gonna talk about their financials in a bit, we have no real idea but Google and Meta were supposed to understand if you're the public market investor and you're buying Google stock or Meta stock, you're supposed to know what are the risks and what's the actual state of their business and this does not give you an accurate reflection of that.
对我来说,这是最让人担心的地方,尤其是在整个AI故事的大背景下,这一切会如何发展。
And to me that's the most worrying part of this, and especially in the backdrop of the overall AI story, how's it all gonna play out.
我是说,这事已经酝酿了一段时间了,我觉得在我们离开的这几周里,它肯定越来越成为焦点。
I mean, this has been bubbling for a little while, I think while we've been off over the last couple of weeks, it's definitely coming more front and center.
我是说,这事在圈子里已经存在很久了,而且说实话,他一直在关注这个,但有趣的是,现在投资银行、摩根士丹利、《华尔街日报》终于都开始跟进这个故事了。
Mean, this has lived in territory for a long time and to his credit, he's been on this for a while, but it's interesting to now see the investment banks, Morgan Stanley, the Wall Street Journal, everyone finally catching up to the story.
好的。
Okay.
先讲一个技术细节,然后我想再深入聊聊这件事的大背景。
Quick technicality, then I wanna get on a little bit more to the bigger picture aspects of this.
那这怎么就不算大型科技公司的支出了呢?
So how is this not the big tech spending?
因为,对,确实是这样。
Because, yes, it's okay.
养老基金确实在出钱建这些数据中心。
The pension funds are outlaying the money to build these data centers.
好的。
Alright.
这些资本集团里的投资者,也就是私募股权。
The investors in these these capital groups, the private equity.
但如果Meta保证,如果数据中心没撑满二十年,会让债券持有人拿回本金,那这难道不是有保障的吗?
But if Meta guarantees that it's gonna make the bondholders whole if it doesn't stay the entire two decades, you know, isn't that guaranteed good, I guess?
还是说,对这些出钱建数据中心的基金来说,风险依然存在?
Or is it still risky for these funds that are putting the money out to build the data centers?
他们其实不是这样,Meta的High Period One就是个很好的例子。
Well, they're not again, so this meta high period one is the perfect example.
Meta保证如果数据中心没撑满二十年,会让债券持有人不亏,但大家都在赌,如果AI需求爆发,这些数据中心开始大量赚钱,不仅能还清债券还有额外现金流,那Meta就不用承担任何责任。
So meta is guaranteeing to make bond holders whole if it doesn't stay for the entire two decades, but everyone is betting if AI demand explodes and if these data centers start printing cash and then they're able to pay bondholders and then some and generate additional cash, then Meta is not on the hook for anything.
那样的话,Meta实际上就不需要提供那个兜底了。
Then Meta does not have to actually kind of provide that backstop.
这就像个二元选择,如果数据中心整个故事成立,Meta就不用掏现金。
It's binary in the sense of if data centers, if the whole story works, they're not spending Meta's not spending cash.
所以,虽然我说出来听起来有点荒谬,但这确实是个可以从技术、法律、财务、结构上玩出花来的论点。
Like that so again, as ridiculous as that might sound when I say it out loud, it's that that's the argument that can be used in a very technicality, legal, financial, structuring, creative sort of way.
就是说,如果数据中心的故事成立,那就不算现金支出,因为这些数据中心会非常抢手,产生大量现金,Meta就不用承担任何责任。
Is that if the data center story works, then it is not a cash outlay because these data centers will actually be so in demand and generating cash, and then Meta is not on the hook for anything.
明白了。
I see.
所以基本上,Meta是在保证这家公司会有一个大客户,从而让公司有信心继续推进。
So basically, Meta is giving the guarantee that this company will have a big customer, and therefore, gives the company the confidence to go ahead.
但这家公司并没有承诺只做Meta的供应商。
But there's no commitment from the company to be the only the supplier to Meta.
而且如果未来十年数据中心需求大幅上升,他们可能会成为大生意,而Meta就只是没有股份。
And if demand for data centers goes up, you know, significantly in the next decade, then they could be a big business and Meta will just have No.
没有股份
A stake in
更离谱的是,在很多这类案例中,Meta既是客户又是
Where it gets even more ridiculous is in many of these cases, like, Meta is the customer and the
担保人
guarantor
为
For
现在还是永远?
now or forever?
不,不是的。
Well, no.
不是。
No.
不是永远的。
Not forever.
不是永远的。
Not forever.
但还是对的。
But but still Right.
我的意思是,他们正在建设和投资,他们正在建设Hyperion,这样他们就能使用Hyperion。
Mean, they're building and investing they're building Hyperion so they can have access to Hyperion.
他们并不是为了人类的福祉而建设这个,尽管马克·扎克伯格有时可能会试图这样宣传。
Like, they're not building this for the good of humanity as much as Mark Zuckerberg might try to spin that story sometimes.
他们这样做,这是创造性的财务结构。
They're doing this, this is creative financial structuring.
是的。
It is.
我觉得
I think
这个
the
问题是,它合法吗?
question is, is it legal?
这样没问题吗?
Is it okay?
是的。
Yes.
我是说,我猜是这样。
I mean, I'm guessing so.
我敢肯定很多律师已经为这个审阅了大量文件。
I'm sure a lot of lawyers have redlined a lot of documents for this.
对整个经济来说,这样好吗?
Is it okay for the overall economy as a whole?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我们走着瞧。
We're going to find out.
很快就能见分晓。
We're going to see very soon.
其实,也不是很快。
Actually, not even very soon.
所有这些问题,很多都需要随着需求增长、数据中心在经济上逐渐成熟,才能慢慢显现出来。但短期内,确实有些因素可能会给整个体系带来麻烦,比如政府债券收益率和借贷成本这些。
The problem with all this stuff is there's a lot of this that should play out over a long period of time as demand increases, as these data centers kind of achieve some kind of maturity in terms of their economics, but also any kind of fear, and we're going to get into overall government yields and just the cost of borrowing, I think there's like certainly things in the short term that could cause some issues within this whole structure.
对,而且这些数字非常庞大。这也是来自《华尔街日报》的报道,MetaCyperian的租赁义务在开始支付租金之前,会一直保留在资产负债表之外。
Right, and the numbers are huge, I mean this is again from the journal story, MetaCyperian lease obligations will remain off balance sheet until it starts paying rent.
报道说,它的初始租赁承诺总额大约是123亿美元。截至6月,它披露的尚未生效的租赁总义务高达3470亿美元。
It said its aggregate initial lease commitment is about $12,300,000,000 It disclosed $347,000,000,000 in total obligations for leases that haven't kicked in yet as of June.
对吧?
Right?
三千四百七十亿美元的支出,而公司的市值大概在一万五千亿左右。
347,000,000,000 in spending that well, the company what the company's market cap is in the 1 and a half range.
让我确认一下这个数字。
Let me just make sure that's right.
对。
Yeah.
一万三千九百亿美元。
1,390,000,000,000.
所以它还有三千四百七十亿美元的租赁义务没有开始,其中很多都没有反映在财务报表上。
And so it's got 347,000,000,000 in total leases that haven't kicked in yet, many of which are not on the not, like, reflected in its financial statement.
这太疯狂了。
That's insane.
我是说,当你把这些数字说出来的时候,确实听起来都很疯狂。
I mean, when you say it out loud again, when we're saying these things out loud, it does all sound insane.
我觉得现在这个故事被炒起来是好事,因为这一切都是在幕后发生的,而且数字实在太大了,很难理解。你想想,一个初级投行分析师试图为Meta建财务模型,用Claude for Excel把这些数字输进去,结果发现这些数字根本不合理,也完全不符合Meta或者任何一家公司过去以这种规模运营的方式。
I think what's happened is this is good that this story is really bubbling up right now because this has just happened in the background and also the numbers are so massive that it is hard to comprehend or actually like, you know, you picture some junior investment banking analyst trying to kind of put together a financial model for meta and pulling up Claude for Excel and trying to put these numbers in and like, they don't make sense and they don't reflect any kind of past way that Meta has ever operated or any of these companies have ever operated at this kind of scale at all.
所以这是新情况。
So this is new.
对于大型科技公司的运作方式来说,这绝对是新情况。
This is definitely new in terms of for big tech how they operate.
过去,记得吗,这些公司面对堆积如山的现金不知所措,只会回购股票,我们都觉得这对很多人来说不是好事。现在他们有了现金,但也在发挥创意,甚至不花掉这些钱,而是想出非常巧妙的方法来预测3470亿美元的债务。
In the past, remember, these companies were like, didn't know what to do with these piles of cash they had and were just buying back stock and we were all like, that was not a great thing for a lot of people, and now they have the cash, but they're also being creative and not even spending it down and actually just coming up with very creative ways to kind of forecast $347,000,000,000 in obligations.
确实如此。
Which is yeah.
这太荒谬了。
It's absurd.
好。
Okay.
所以我有两个傻问题想问你,我觉得这能帮我们说明这里的情况。
So I have two dumb questions that I'm gonna throw out there to you, and I think this is sort of gonna help us illustrate what's going on here.
第一个问题是,他们为什么要这么做?
First one is why would they do this?
为什么这些公司不采取一种更直接的方式呢?比如说,好吧,我们就是要花掉这些钱——我是说,他们有没有,你知道,我不觉得Meta手头有3470亿美元的现金。
Like why would the companies not just take what you might characterize as a more honest approach to this and say, okay, well, we're just gonna spend our I mean, they don't do they have you know, I don't think Meta has 347,000,000,000 in cash on hand.
对吧?
Right?
所以是因为他们没钱吗?
So is it that they don't have the money?
也许吧。
Maybe.
但是,为什么要费这么大劲去掩盖、玩这些把戏,你知道,到了现在这个地步?
But, like, why go through the extra effort to obscure and sort of play these games where, you know, where you know, to the point that they are at this point?
嗯,看看Meta,他们有910亿美元的现金和流动性投资,还有证券。
Well, so looking, Meta has $91,000,000,000 of cash and liquid investments, securities as well.
那是多少?
What is it?
谷歌,1870亿美元。
Google, dollars 187,000,000,000.
所以他们资金非常充裕,不只是充裕,天哪。
So they have large pockets, not even pockets, my God.
他们手里有大把的现金。
They have large piles of cash.
但再说一次,为什么要这么做呢?追加保证金是什么?
But again, why would you if What's the margin call?
杰瑞米·艾恩斯那句经典台词,但如果有买家,你为什么要动用自己手里的现金呢?
Famous line from Jeremy Irons, but it's if there's a buyer, why would you draw down your own cash?
如果能找到别人的钱来用,显然你更愿意这么做,而不是花自己的钱。
If you can find someone else's money, obviously for your business, you would rather do that than actually spend your own cash.
所以这其实是个问题。
So it's actually a problem.
纯粹从
Purely
战术角度来看,我觉得从个体问题来说,没有理由不这么做。
tactical way standpoint, to me there's no reason to not do this from an individual problem.
再说,这就像局部优化和全局优化的区别。
Again, it's like local optimization versus global optimization.
对那家公司来说,当然是有道理的。
It's like for that company, of course it makes sense.
好的。
Okay.
但我觉得,好吧。
But I think alright.
那我接着问第二个问题。
So let me go to this is going to my second question.
这么做的一部分原因,是不是为了向华尔街隐瞒这笔开支,免得股价受影响?
Isn't part of the reason to do this to obscure it from Wall Street, to obscure that spending from Wall Street so you don't take a hit?
那我给你设想一个场景。
So let me throw this this scenario at you.
他们可以这样操作,比如公开数据里看不到这些数字,得靠《华尔街日报》的文章才能曝光一部分。
They could do this scenario where, like, the numbers aren't there in public, it takes a Wall Street Journal article to sort of expose some of them.
而且即便如此,它仍然不透明,或者他们可以直接花掉现金,向华尔街展示他们实际花了多少钱,而不是那些典型的资本支出数字。
And even then, it's still opaque, or they could have just gone and spent their cash and and shown Wall Street how much they're actually spending versus the typical CapEx numbers.
你不觉得如果他们展示了真实的支出金额,而不是我们看到的这种模糊的绕圈子做法,股价会遭受重大打击吗?
Like, don't you think the stocks would have taken a significant hit if they would have shown, like, the true amount of spending that they're doing as opposed to this, like, obfuscated runaround that we seem to be getting?
当然。
Of course.
但这就是你不这么做的原因。
But that's why you don't do it.
我的意思是,我并不是想过于愤世嫉俗,但没错,这正是你为什么要用这种方式做事的原因。
I mean, like, I I think, like, again, I'm not trying to be overly cynical here, but yes, that is exactly why you would do things in exactly this way.
再说,你知道,在更严格的监管环境下,想象一下,比如莉娜·汗还在任或者其他人,也许你会说这是一个系统性问题,我们会要求这些公司对任何这类义务提供全面披露。
And again, like, you know, like in a more aggressive regulatory environment, imagine like, don't know, Lena Khan still around or whoever else, maybe you will say this is a systemic issue and we are going to require that these companies actually provide full disclosure for any of these kind of obligations.
也许,我们知道在当今的环境下这不会发生。
Like maybe, we know that's not going to be happening in today's environment.
所以从纯粹的战术层面来看,这很合理,虽然不幸,但确实如此。
So from every purely tactical level, this is logical, unfortunately, but it is.
我再说一遍,我不是在说这是对还是错,我只是在说事实就是这样。
I'm not again, I'm not trying to say this is right or wrong, I'm just saying what it is.
如果你说我们承担了这么大的潜在商业风险,那股价当然会受影响。
If you're saying we are taking on this massive amount of potential business risk, of course the stock is going to take a hit.
但如果你不需要这么做,那为什么要做呢?
But when you don't have to do that, then why would you?
那我有个问题想问你。
So here's my question to you.
这些刚刚建好的。
These just built.
你觉得华尔街会不知道这个吗?
You think Wall Street doesn't know this?
我是说,如果连《华尔街日报》的记者都能通过看SEC文件的脚注得出这些结论,那显然,任何管理资金的人,比如在正经机构工作的,都应该知道吧,不是吗?
I mean, if a Wall Street Journal reporter can, like, look at the footnotes of SEC filings and make these determinations, clearly, like anyone who's running money, you know, for any, like, respectable outlet would know or wouldn't they?
我想你应该能给我们一个答案。
I think you'd you'd be able to give us an answer to that.
我有个朋友,他经营着一家科技对冲基金,我们一直在来回讨论,因为他总是问我,AI那边到底怎么样了。
I think one of my friends who runs, like, a technology hedge fund, we've been going back and forth because, like, he's always asking me, you know, like, what's going on in AI?
在过去的一年里,他更专注于传统软件,你知道,他还是死守着市场是理性的这个假设。
And for the last, like, year, and he's more traditional software focused, you know, he's like, he's still desperately clinging to the assumption that markets are rational.
这些人都是聪明理性的人,尤其是管理着大量资金的人。
These are smart, rational people, especially managing large pools of capital.
我持相反的观点。
I have argued the other side.
我说过,你会觉得华尔街,不管这个词具体指什么,但确实,会有聪明的分析师坐在那里,思考这会影响什么。
I have said, like you would think Wall Street, whatever that might mean exactly, but like, yes, that there would be smart analysts sitting there saying, how does this affect things?
但狂热太强了,怕错过下一个Anthropic或者英伟达这样的机会,所以不,我不认为华尔街显然应该对此了如指掌。
But the mania has been so strong, the FOMO of not being in the next, whatever, Anthropic or what Nvidia and the public side like, So no, I do not think that Wall Street obviously should be on top of this.
我觉得他们会知道的。
I think they will be.
事实上,这些交易已经进行了大概十八个月,甚至更久,现在你终于看到投资银行的研究报告,试图把这些拼凑起来。
This is the fact that these deals have been going on for the past eighteen months maybe, maybe even longer, And now you're finally getting these research reports from investment banks trying to put together what this looks like.
完全同意。
Totally.
不。
No.
我不认为华尔街就一定聪明,也不认为他们应该走在前头。
I I do not think it's a given that Wall Street is smart and would should be ahead of this.
嗯,我觉得,也许华尔街不一定运作良好,但他们应该走在前头。
Well, I think, you know, I I maybe it's not a given that Wall Street is functional, but they should be ahead of this.
因为如果艾德·齐特龙能做到,华尔街日报也能做到,那摩根士丹利肯定也能做到。
Because if Ed Zitron can do it and The Wall Street Journal can do it, surely Morgan Stanley should be able to do it.
这里有个引述。
And here's the quote.
我特别喜欢看这些报道结尾的引述,因为那能看出作者真正的想法,在他们用那些小心翼翼、模棱两可的语言陈述事实之后。
I always love looking at the quote at the end of these stories because it tells you what the author really thinks, you know, after they make through their, like, carefully hedged language, like laying out the facts.
这就是那个引述。
Here's the quote.
随着这些表外承诺变得越来越频繁、规模更大、结构更复杂,投资者越来越难以评估公司的总潜在杠杆,这句话出自摩根士丹利的一份会计分析报告。
As these off balance sheets as these off balance sheet commitments become frequent, larger, and more complex, it's becoming increasingly difficult for investors to assess companies' total potential leverage, and that comes from none other than a Morgan Stanley accounting analysis.
他们开始关注这个问题了。
They're they're starting to get on it.
我是说,就连你刚才说的那个顺序,先是埃德·齐特龙,然后《华尔街日报》开始跟进报道,这个故事,又一次说明,这种狂热太强烈了,以至于你看到像埃德·齐特龙那样的人,那种在角落里写博客、像牛虻一样说真话的人,拼命想喊出这件事,而且,我虽然经常不同意他的观点,比如他认为生成式AI和智能体AI都不是什么有用的技术,但他在很多这类事情上确实走在了前面,我觉得,当那些公司在投资数据中心、股价飙升的时候,他是那个站出来说这种融资方式不合理的人。
I mean I mean, even the way you outline that order, Exitron first, then the Wall Street Journal starts to get on in on it, like the story, it's inter again, the mania is so strong that it shows you that you have the kind of Ed Zitron persona, the kind of like gadfly truth teller blogging in the corner, like trying to scream about this story, and again, I disagree with him a lot on the idea that generative AI and agentic AI is all like a, you know, not a useful technology but he's gotten, he's been ahead on a lot of this stuff and I think like to be the one saying that the data center financing doesn't make sense when the company is investing in it are just their stocks are skyrocketing.
再说,如果你错过了英伟达,那你就显得很没眼光。
Again, if you missed Nvidia, you do not look good.
比如,如果你错过了私人市场的Anthropic和OpenAI,如果你在十二到十八个月前试图说这些不行,而且你在管钱,那你就会被投资者视为失败者。
Like if you missed Anthropic on the private side and OpenAI, like if you're the one trying to say this twelve to eighteen months ago and managing money, you'd be looked at as a failure by your investors.
所以我觉得,这就是为什么这些事情要花这么长时间才被曝出来的原因。
So I think like that's those are the mechanics why it takes so long for these things to come out.
对。
Right.
所以我觉得,你这么做还有一个原因,当然,你不想让华尔街看到,然后打压你的股价,但你也可能不太确定自己能不能还清这些钱。
And so I think, like, another reason you do this, of course, you don't want the street to, you know, maybe see it and hit your stock, but you may not be so sure you're gonna pay it all back.
我觉得这可能是一部分原因。
I think that could be part of it.
而最终,问题出在你还清所有债务的时候。
And ultimately, is where it becomes a problem is when you pay it all back.
比如,如果你确定能还清,你就去找朋友说,嘿。
Like, if you're sure you can pay it all back, you, go to your friend and you're like, hey.
你知道,借我五块钱。
You know, let me get $5.
如果你不确定能还清,
If you if you're not sure you can pay it back
就是这样。
That's what it is.
你就会说,你能不能去找那个人拿钱?
You're like, can you, like, go to this person and then get money?
而且我确定,我的另一个朋友会还他们的,你大概会说,嘿。
And I'm sure, like, my my other friend will pay them back, and you're sort of to say, hey.
我那5块钱还能拿回来吗,还是拿不回来了?
Am I gonna get my 5 back, or am I am I not gonna get it back?
所以这算是故事的另一部分。
So this is, like, one more piece of the story.
这又是来自《华尔街日报》的报道。
This from the Wall Street Journal again.
有理由相信科技公司会履行所有义务,乐观者认为AI工具的需求会飙升。
There are reasons to believe tech companies will make good on all their obligations, optimists see skyrocketing demand for AI tools.
作为证据,这种需求会持续多年强劲,赚到的钱足以支付所有即将到来的账单。
As a proof point, that demand is going to be strong for years, and the money will pay all the all those bills that will be rolling in.
对于华尔街那些更焦虑的人来说,一个令人担忧的迹象是,一些曾经看起来资产负债表坚如堡垒的科技公司,现在却频繁需要进入资本市场融资。
For the more anxious set on Wall Street, it's a worrying sign that some tech companies that once seemed to have a fortress balance sheet have needed to tap the capital markets frequently.
我不知道。
I don't know.
你站在哪一边?
What side are you on?
那两边分别是什么?
What are the sides?
我们怎么定义它们?
How are we defining them?
一边是,他们肯定会还清债务,因为AI热潮会带来巨额收入,多到他们都不知道怎么花。
Side one is they're gonna clearly pay it back because the AI boom is going to, like, bring in so much money that they won't know what to do with it.
另一边是,这些可是世界上最强的公司。
And side two is like, well, these are some of the strongest companies in the world.
他们原本有庞大的现金储备,现在却要背负债务。
They had these huge balance sheets of cash, and now they're going to be debt ridden.
我不确定,但风险很明显,这些全球最大的公司正在下杠杆赌注。
I don't know if so the danger is very clear that these are the largest companies in the world and they're taking a levered bet.
而且他们都在下同样的杠杆赌注。
And they're all taking the same levered bet.
所以这不太好。
So that's not good.
你肯定不想再听到这种话,所有人的钱都押在同一件事上。
You never like to hear that again, where everyone's money is just sitting is all betting on the same thing.
我还是坚信AI需求会爆发,经济也会被带动起来,这些都会在未来几年发生。
Again, firmly believe that AI demand will explode and the economy is going to get identified and all of that is going to happen in the years to come.
但我觉得我可能更偏向焦虑的那一边,因为当所有人都押同一个注的时候,总是有点让人担心。
But I guess I would lean on the anxious side in terms of like, when everyone is taking the same bet, it's it's always a bit concerning.
你呢?
What about you?
不。
No.
不只是,我同意你的看法,而且不只是同一个赌注。
Not not just I'm gonna gonna I agree with you and not just the same bet.
就像你提到的,是杠杆赌注。
Like you like you mentioned, a levered bet.
而且过去几周我们也看到了,AI的杠杆赌注并不总是能成功。
And we've seen in the past couple weeks that leveraged bets on AI don't always work out.
对吧?
Right?
那咱们聊聊这里的风险吧。
So talk a little bit about the risk here.
我是说,如果是利奥波德,那还好说。
I mean, it's it's one thing if it's Leopold.
但要是别人,那就另当别论了。
It's another thing, man.
我们当时,我们当时
We we were we were
在利奥波德的那个场合。
on the occasion for Leopold.
是的。
Yes.
还有德米斯,
And Demis,
顺便说一下,我们之前确实聊过这个。
by the way, which we've Yeah.
我们在节目里已经聊过了,但你和我还没机会好好聊聊这件事。
We have covered on the show, but you and I haven't had a chance to speak about it yet.
不过,是的,这些投入都是大手笔。
But but, yeah, the the idea that you're gonna that these are big bets.
我的意思是,Meta 有 3470 亿美元的租赁义务还没开始生效。
I mean, 340 was $347,000,000,000 that Meta has in obligations for leases that haven't kicked in yet.
这就像,你知道的,“押上公司”这个词用得太频繁了,但这次真的是押上公司级别的行动。
Like, this is you know, the term bet the company is used way too often, but this is bet the company type activity here.
确实如此。
It is.
但这就是,如果我们往焦虑的方向想,而且天哪,我简直不敢相信我们一直没聊到 Leopold,但也许我们可以开始把它加进来。
But that's what so that's, again, if we're gonna lean on the anxious side and, man, I can't believe we never got to talk about Leopold, but, maybe we can start working that in.
我觉得不是。
I think No.
我们跟听众说一下,Ranjan和我,就在Ranjan去休息的时候,我们俩发了一堆短信,说肯定得录一期紧急播客了。
We we did for listeners, Ranjan and I it happened, like, just as Ranjan went on break, and we did, like, exchange a bunch of bunch of texts being like, we knew there was gonna need to be an emergency podcast.
所以,总之,我们会有机会聊聊我们对Leopold的分析。
So, anyway, we'll get a chance to give our Leopold analysis.
肯定会有第二轮的。
There's gonna be a round two.
会有第二轮,还有第三轮。
There's gonna be a round two and a three.
这个我倒不担心。
I'm not worried about that.
不过你这么一说,记得马克·扎克伯格说过,具体原话我记不清了,但大意是,如果我们已经花了这么多,那我们应该花更多。
Think, but when you say that, remember Mark Zuckerberg has said, I'm not going to remember the exact quote, but it was around like, oh well if we're spending this much, we should be spending more.
说实话,我真的好奇那些科技巨头的CEO群聊是什么样的。
Like every this is I I honestly wonder what the group chats are like for Big Tech C.
有没有那种群聊,里面是Sundar、Mark他们所有人,但大家都在互相影响,互相较劲,想着同样的事情。
Are there group chats where it's like Sundar, Mark, and everyone, but like, they're they're all feeding on each other and they're competing on each other, like against each other and thinking the same thing.
是的,他们实际上都在说要把公司押上去。
And yes, they are all saying effectively bet the company.
这可能是他们历史上、科技史上,甚至人类历史上最重要的时刻。
This is the single biggest like, moment in their history, the tech's history, humanity's history potentially.
所以当然要押上整个公司。
So of course, you're gonna bet the company.
这都要追溯到保罗·科特罗斯基一个半星期前在节目上说的,基本上就是说,我们看到的这一切,本质上就是一个看涨期权,所有支出都是对通用人工智能的看涨期权。
I mean, it all goes back to what Paul Kotrosky said on on the show a week and a half ago, which is effectively that what we're looking at is a call basically, the way that it works is it's a what all the spending is a call option on AGI.
如果你真的得到了人们想象中的那种通用人工智能,比如一个强大的AI,也许能替代人们的工作,还能治愈癌症,那钱就花得值。
That if you get something that what people are envisioning to be AGI, like a powerful AI that, maybe I does people's jobs and cures cancer money well spent.
你会想,如果能垄断它,也许可以,但如果做不到,那这里就会有一场清算。
You would think if you could hoard it or maybe but but if not there's going to be a reckoning here.
当你深入了解这些活动时,似乎——顺便说一句,我同意你的看法——我并不是对AI的能力持怀疑态度,至少对目前的能力不是。
Seems it seems like as you read deeper into this activity and I agree with you, by the way, that I'm not a skeptic on, let's say, the capabilities of AI, at least the way they stand today.
它们确实非常出色。
They're exceptional.
确实,我们会在第二部分讨论这个。过去几年AI的发展速度简直令人难以置信。
Way, and we're going to talk about this in the second How far AI has come in the past few years is insane.
但你可以同时这么说,也可以说,天哪,我害怕我看到的这些数字,当你把所有东西放在一起看的时候,确实相当令人担忧。
But but you can say you can you can at once say that and also say, by golly, I'm afraid of the numbers that I'm looking at, and it seems, you know, quite concerning when you put it all together.
我喜欢这个。
I loved it.
你用的感叹词是“天哪”。
Your phrase of exclamation is by golly.
如果有什么是我在休息期间改变的,那就是这个。
That's that's if there's one thing that I've changed on on break is
你能在CNBC上说这个吗?你能在CNBC上很快说这个吗?
Can you can you say that on c n b can you say that on CNBC soon?
我会的。
I will.
我会,我会尝试的。
I will I will attempt to.
当然。
Absolutely.
天哪,这些数字真是惊人。
By golly, these numbers are astounding.
我觉得
I think
确实。
They are.
还有别的说法吗?
Is there any other way to refer to it?
没有。
No.
没有。
No.
天哪,这是我们以后唯一能用来形容这件事的说法了。
By golly, is the only way that we can ever refer to this again.
而且,而且,而且,就像利奥波德第二轮、第三轮,或者接下来无论发生什么,那就是我们的感叹。
And and and as Leopold round two and round three or whatever else comes next, that's our exclamation.
那就是我们俩都在喊的。
That's what we're both yelling.
“天哪”时刻。
By golly moment.
对。
Yeah.
好。
Okay.
认真对待实质内容,兰詹。
Reckon reckon with the substance, Ranjan.
别忽视实质内容。
Don't lose don't lose sight of substance.
目前的实质内容。
The substance at this point.
实质就是
The substance is is
这个方向不太对。
that this is not going in a good direction.
好吧,行。
Well, okay.
所以不是。
So no.
对我来说,问题在于——我这么说并不是因为我特别焦虑。
It it is the the so to me, the question and and I don't even say this is highly anxious.
我这么说是因为我觉得这事不会完全顺利。在那个看涨期权的框架下,再说一遍,看涨期权就是你有权买入,基本上是用较小的权利金去博无限的上行空间,就是下这种赌注。
I say this as, I don't think this plays out completely smoothly and in that call option framework, again a call option, the right to buy basically having unlimited upside for kind of like smaller premium taking that kind of bet.
我觉得问题在于,这种局面要是逆转,会是什么样子?
It's I don't think it's the question to me is what does an unwind look like?
我想说的是,当我们说3470亿美元的赌注时,并不是说如果出问题就是3470亿美元,那更像是多年期租赁付款的保证。
And I will say like, it's when we say $347,000,000,000 bet, it's not $347,000,000,000 in the sense of if things go wrong, this is that's like a guarantee of lease payments over a large number of years.
Meta 根本不可能真的支付3470亿美元。
It's no way that like Metas has to pay $347,000,000,000.
这可能会慢慢演变,可能持续很长时间,涉及律师,有人会亏钱,你知道,可能分散在很多地方,人们发现他们的养老金投资下跌了10%,这不太好,但不像Meta的910亿美元现金下周就蒸发掉。
There's gonna be it's gonna play out slowly potentially, it's over time, there's lawyers involved, there's people losing money left, you know, like maybe it's in a very distributed fashion and people notice their pension fund investments are down 10%, which is not good, but like, it's not like meta's $91,000,000,000 of cash evaporates next week.
不像Leopold那种对冲基金高杠杆押注的情况,可能从450亿跌到60亿或100亿,在几分钟或几小时内就损失巨额资金。
Unlike the Leopold situation of highly levered bets for a hedge fund where you can go from 45,000,000,000 to 6 to 10,000,000,000 or whatever it is and lose a massive amount of money in minutes or hours.
所以我觉得,对我来说,假设六到十二个月后,OpenAI和Anthropic的IPO表现不佳,人们不再那么疯狂地追逐AGI这个看涨期权故事,那回调会是什么样子?
So I think, so that's to me still, let's say six to twelve months, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs are duds, people stop kind of like having this absolutely manic drive towards the story, the AGI call option, what does a drawdown look like?
我觉得那才是更有趣的问题。
I think to me that's the more interesting question.
因为再说一次,Meta仍然会赚取大量广告收入,这不会改变。
Because again, Meta is still going to be raking in advertising dollars, that's not going anywhere.
谷歌的云业务和消费者业务也不会改变。
Google between their cloud and consumer businesses, that's not going anywhere either.
所以对我来说,这到底会怎么发展,我真的不知道。
So to me I think like how does this actually play out is gonna be I don't know.
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而且我,我,这很难说,但我觉得这会是这件事最有趣的部分。
And I I it's it's very hard to say, but I think that's gonna be the interesting part of this.
哦,当然。
Oh, definitely.
我是说,我觉得我们在节目里已经聊过很多次了,要让这一切顺利发展,很多参与者真的需要做到完美执行。
I mean, I think we've talked about on the show numerous times that you need perfect execution really by many of the players here for this all to work out.
如果执行不到位,那事情就会变得有点意思,而且对某些参与者来说可能会非常艰难。
And if the execution is not perfect, then that's when things get, you know, somewhat interesting and probably very rough for some of the players involved.
而且我们就是不太清楚那会是什么样子。
And we just we don't exactly know what that looks like.
但考虑到我们看到的这些数字规模,要实现这一切,必须发生一些非同寻常的事情。
But with the size of the numbers that we're seeing, some extraordinary things have to happen in order for this.
你知道吗,这几乎让我想起了软着陆或者不着陆的情景。
You know, it's it's almost reminds me of like the soft landing scenario or the no landing scenario.
对吧?
Right?
美联储正试图降低通胀。
That the Fed is trying to get inflation down.
这就像需要很多事情都顺利发展,才能实现目标。
It's like you need so many things to go right That's you're going have a
一个好的类比。
a good corollary.
是软着陆吗?
Is there a soft landing?
还是不着陆?
Is there no landing?
我觉得这样想很好,而且这些不同情景会是什么样子,我认为我们会经常讨论这个,特别是八月二十一号,Anthropic据说下个月要上市。
I think that's a good way to think about it and what do those different scenarios look like is, I think we're going to be talking a lot about that, especially as August 21 and Anthropic is supposedly coming out to the market next month.
我觉得我们会开始看到更多具体的数字,来支撑整个故事。
I think we're gonna start seeing a lot more concrete, numbers assigned to this whole story.
对。
Yeah.
不管怎么说,我只想说说我的看法,因为过去几周我一直在想这个问题。
For what it's worth, I just wanna state my perspective on this because I have been thinking about over the past couple weeks.
然后我们会聊到Anthropic、IPO、营收数字,还有OpenAI的营收数字。
And then we're going get to the Anthropic and IPO and revenue numbers and OpenAI revenue numbers.
我开始觉得,AI其实只有三种真正的结局。
I I'm starting to think there's really only three true outcomes for AI.
第一种是AI有效,而且结果是好的。
Like, one is AI works and and it's good.
对吧?
Right?
就是带来经济繁荣,还能让疾病减少。
So it leads to economic prosperity and, like, a rollback of disease.
第二种是AI有效,但结果是坏的。
The other is AI works and and it's bad.
比如,我们会看到更多那种恶意黑客活动,而且这些技术落到坏人手里,可能会导致生物武器之类的东西。
So, like, we start to see more of, the the rogue hacking activity that we've seen, and it gets in the hands of bad actors, and it leads to, like, bioweapons and things like that.
或者第三种可能的结果是,AI根本不行。
Or the third possible outcome is that AI doesn't work.
我确实一直在纠结这个问题。
And I'd I'm I've really struggled.
比如那种软着陆的想法,我真的很难看到它实现。
Like, the idea of this soft landing, I struggle to see it.
如果AI不行的话,已经有那么多钱投入到这个系统里,肯定会引发某种危机。
Like, if AI doesn't work, there's been so much money tied up into this system that there's gonna be some form of crisis.
所以我真的觉得,等我的《大科技》通讯恢复更新后,大概在劳动节之后,我会写一篇关于这个的文章。
So I really see it as and I'm gonna I think I'll write about this on Big Technology when I get the newsletter back up and running, probably like post Labor Day.
但我真的认为这里只有三种真正可能的结果。
But I I really see it as three three true outcomes here.
你怎么看?
What do you
你觉得呢?
think about that?
我要以编辑的身份说,我强烈不同意你提出的三种可能结果的框架。
I'm gonna be your editor and say that I vehemently disagree with your framing of three possible outcomes.
因为我觉得,好。
Because I think Good.
好。
Good.
好。
Good.
对。
Yeah.
因为,因为我们一直在讨论的这一切,完全独立于你列出的那三种情景。
Because because this everything we have been talking about is completely independent of the three scenarios that you outlined.
就是说,如果它成功了并且是好的,或者成功了但是坏的,实际上可以完全独立于数据中心在未来几年是否运作良好,以及是否能让债券持有人得到偿付,因为它可能在更长的时间段内运作,也可能成功,但随后由于创新,实际的计算需求大幅下降,然后数据中心的故事失败了,但AI要么在治愈疾病,要么在入侵我们所有人的银行账户。
It's it's it's if it like, if it works and it's good or it works and it's bad, actually can be totally independent of will data centers work over the next few years and be able to actually make bond holders whole on their because it could work over a longer time period, it could work, but then the actual compute requirements because of innovation dramatically decrease and then, actually the data center story fails, but AI is either curing diseases or hacking into all of our bank accounts.
所以,我们认为我们讨论的故事和那些可能的结果是两件非常非常不同的事情。
So think they're two very very separate things, the story that we're talking about and those possible outcomes.
我觉得这和整个融资故事是独立的,或者说是分开的。是的,这三个结果确实涵盖了所有可能性。但我也对治愈疾病这个说法有点厌倦了。
I think independent or separate from the whole financing story, I think yes, those are three outcomes that kind of cover the entirety of anything and like but I also the curing diseases thing, I'm kind of tired of.
我这么说只是因为,这感觉像是Dario和其他人一直依赖的拐杖,只是为了说,各位,请喜欢我们。
And I say this only because that feels like such a crutch that Dario and everyone just keeps falling back to just to be like, Guys, please like us.
我们会治愈疾病。
We'll cure disease.
我们还没有提出任何具体的方法,能真正让我们实现这个目标,但你们应该喜欢AI,因为它会治愈疾病。
We haven't outlined any possible way of like any concrete things that actually are gonna get us there, but you should like AI because it's going to cure disease.
好的。
Okay.
正义是……首先,我们要加上第四个可能的结果,那就是AI有效,但进展太慢,导致金融崩溃。
Justice is something that So first of all, we'll add a fourth potential outcome is that AI works, but it works too slowly and it causes financial collapse.
这就对了。
There we go.
这就……这就是……
There we That's
第四个结果。
the fourth outcome.
我挺好的。
I'm good.
但关于疾病这件事,我非常不同意你的看法。
But I very much disagree with you about this disease thing.
我是说,AlphaFold,我知道它一直被讨论很久了。
I mean, AlphaFold, I know it's been kind of talked about forever.
但像你提到的一些个性化医疗的例子,也许不是治愈,而是可以控制。
But like some of these personalized health care examples that you're getting, maybe it's not cured, could be managed.
这些例子很难反驳。
They're very, very difficult to argue with.
而且我个人觉得,它可能会变得非常重要,而且投入其中的关注度也很大。
And I personally like I think that it could be very big in a way that and the amount of focus that's going into it
不。
No.
不。
No.
但是。
But
在实验室内部,我觉得这确实不能轻易忽视。
within the labs, to me, I think it's it's not worth, you know, sort of waving away.
不。
No.
不。
No.
但我坚信,AI 会在罕见病和整个疾病领域带来巨大的进步和创新。
But I I firmly believe that AI will bring tremendous progress and innovation around rare disease, disease as a whole.
我坚信这一点。
I firmly believe that.
但这并不能说明为什么 Anthropic 的 IPO 应该成功,或者你为什么应该特别看好 Anthropic。
I don't think that tells a story about why Anthropic's IPO should succeed or you should like Anthropic specifically.
那些CEO把它当成拐杖,这才是我看不惯的地方。
Them, those CEOs using it as kind of a crutch, that's what I have the problem with.
我觉得如果你是大学教授,研究大语言模型如何解析罕见病相关的大量非结构化数据,那才是未来,那很棒,那才是最动人的故事。
I think if you're a university professor doing research on how large language models can kind of like parse through mass amounts of unstructured data around rare disease, that is the future and that's great and that is the most beautiful story to tell.
如果你是Dario,担心着比如……或者甚至Sam,记得吗,我觉得OpenAI现在越来越频繁地谈论这个,因为他们的企业故事,我们待会儿会讲到,进展并不顺利。
If you're Dario and you're worried about like where or even Sam remember, I feel OpenAI has been kind of like talking about this more and more now because like their enterprise story, which we'll get into, is not going great.
所以这又是一个,就是那种,对于这些非常成熟的企业来说,有点像是画大饼的东西。
So it's like another one where it's just it's and again, it's like moonshoddy type stuff when for these very mature businesses.
所以这就是我的吐槽。
So that's that's the rant there.
对。
Yeah.
但你不觉得那会有经济价值吗?
But you don't think that's gonna be economically valuable?
我觉得会有。
I think it will be.
我不觉得他们今天展示了什么跟他们业务特别相关的东西,能让他们更有可能做成这件事。
Don't think I don't think they have shown anything specific to their business today that makes them anymore I don't know, like, they're going to be the ones to do this.
我觉得吧,
I think like
初创公司,
startups,
或者某家中国公司,都有可能。
some Chinese company, whatever.
现在就是人人都有机会。
It's like everyone it is open season.
这挺好的,让我挺兴奋的,但这就是我的吐槽,我会在接下来的IPO季里一直说个不停。
It's like which is good, that's exciting to me, but that's my that's my rant, which I'll continue for weeks on end as we head into IPO season.
好的。
Okay.
我喜欢这个。
I love it.
我很喜欢。
I love it.
好了。
Alright.
我们吊胃口吊得够久了。
We've teased it enough.
休息回来之后,我们要聊聊Anthropic和OpenAI的新数据,看起来Anthropic在猛涨,而OpenAI嘛,我们到时候再说。
When we come back from the break, we're gonna talk about Anthropic and OpenAI's new numbers where it seems like Anthropic is surging and OpenAI is well, we'll get to it.
广告之后马上回来。
Back right after this.
本期节目由DeepL赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by DeepL.
最近我在YouTube上采访DeepL的创始人Yara Kudliovski时,我们聊到了专用AI的话题。
When I sat down with DeepL's founder, Yara Kudliovski, on YouTube recently, we got into the case for specialized AI.
DeepL Voice就是当对话是实时进行时的那种样子,说实话,我真希望自己以前做跨境采访的时候就有这个,能把语言障碍变成不是问题。
DeepL Voice is what it looks like when the stakes are real time conversation, and honestly, it's something I wish I'd had for my own cross border interviews, turning a language barrier into a non issue.
DeepL Voice 提供超过40种语言的实时翻译,适用于虚拟会议和面对面交流,帮助人们用自己偏好的语言说话,而不失流畅和细腻。
DeepL Voice delivers live translation in over 40 languages for virtual meetings and in person conversations, helping people speak in their preferred language without losing flow or nuance.
无论你是会见客户、与供应商谈判,还是与全球同事协作,它都能实时跟上你的节奏,轻松处理你业务中特有的技术术语、缩写和产品名称,确保你的真实意图永远不会在翻译中丢失。
Whether you're meeting with a customer, negotiating with a supplier, or collaborating with global colleagues, it keeps pace with you in real time, easily handling the technical terms, acronyms, and product names specific to your business, so what you actually mean never gets lost in translation.
对于正在听节目的开发者们,DeepL 的语音 API 可以让你直接将实时语音转录和翻译嵌入到你的产品中。
And for the builders listening, DeepL's voice API lets you embed real time speech transcription and translation directly into your products.
所以,快去亲自体验一下吧。
So go check it out for yourself.
你可以在 deepl.com/tryvoice 免费试用 DeepL Voice。
You can try DeepL voice for free at deepl.com/tryvoice.
网址是 deepl.com/tryvoice。
That's deepl.com/tryvoice.
夏天总是会改变我的穿衣方式。
Summer always changes how I get dressed.
我想要那些感觉更轻盈、更舒适,但仍然得体的单品。
I want pieces that feel lighter and more comfortable, but still put together.
这就是Kintz登场的时候。
That's where Kintz comes in.
他们专注于制作精良的基础款,采用透气的亚麻和柔软的有机棉,这种基本款你会一直想回购。
They focus on well made essentials in breathable linen and soft organic cotton, the kind of basics you will keep coming back to.
所有商品的价格比同类品牌低50%到80%,因为他们直接与道德工厂合作,所以你付的是品质钱,而不是品牌溢价。
Everything is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands because they work directly with ethical factories, so you're paying for quality, not brand markup.
就我个人而言,在空调房和夏日高温之间切换,一件来自Kinst的轻便拉链连帽衫真的改变了我的生活。
Personally, moving between AC and summer heat, a lightweight zip down sweatshirt from Kinst has been a life changer.
升级你的日常穿搭。
Upgrade your everyday.
下载Kinstack应用获取专属优惠,或者访问kinst.com/bigtech。
Download the Kinstack for app exclusive offers, or go to kinst.com/bigtech.
享受订单免运费和365天退货服务。
Get free shipping on your order and three hundred sixty five day returns.
现在在加拿大和英国也有售。
Now available in Canada and The UK too.
网址是 quince.com/bigtech。
That's quince.com/bigtech.
本期节目由 AvPoint 赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by AvPoint.
现在大家都在争着推出 AI。
Everyone's racing to roll out AI right now.
副驾驶、聊天机器人、还有真正干活的智能体。
Copilots, chatbots, agents doing real work.
但有个部分大家都不太愿意提。
But here's the part nobody loves talking about.
所有这些 AI 都跑在你的数据上,而大多数团队都没有一个统一的方法来查看、保护并证明这些数据是可控的。
All that AI runs on your data, and most teams have no single way to see it, secure it, and prove it's under control.
这正是 AvPoint 做的事情。
That's exactly what AvPoint does.
二十五年来,他们一直是全球要求最严苛的数据背后的可信赖层,现在这个层已经扩展到你的整个 AI 体系,包括你的数据、你的云,以及代表你行动的智能体。
For twenty five years, they've been the trusted layer beneath the world's most demanding data, now extended across your entire AI estate, your data, your cloud, and the agents acting on your behalf.
这就是超过两万八千家机构能够放心部署AI的方式,让创新规模化,而风险不会跟着扩大。
It's how more than 28,000 organizations deploy AI with confidence, so innovation scales without scaling risk.
它是一个统一的平台,而不是一堆零散的工具,把安全、治理和韧性都整合在一起。
It's a single platform instead of a pile of tools, bringing security, governance, resilience altogether.
AvPoint,AI的统一信任层。
AvPoint, the unifying trust layer for AI.
更多信息请访问 a vpt.co/bigtechnology podcast。
Learn more at a vpt.co/bigtechnology podcast.
网址是 a vpt.co/bigtechnology podcast。
That's a vpt.co/bigtechnology podcast.
欢迎回到Big Technology播客,周五版,和Margins的Ranjan Roy一起。
And we're back here on Big Technology podcast, Friday edition with Ranjan Roy of Margins.
好的。
Alright.
我们来聊聊休息前提到的那些数字,看看Anthropic和OpenAI已经开始透露的收入情况。
Let's talk a little bit about the numbers that we teased before the break, looking at Anthropic and OpenAI's, revenue that have started to leak.
这里,这是来自彭博社的消息。
Here, this is from Bloomberg.
Anthropic的年化收入在IPO前超过了650亿美元。
Anthropic's annualized revenue topped 65,000,000,000 before IPO.
Anthropic目前的表现有望实现年收入超过650亿美元,相比去年年底的速度增长了七倍多。
Anthropic is on track to generalize annual revenue of more than 65,000,000,000 based on its current performance, up more than seven pull sevenfold from its pace at the end of last year.
到7月底,公司的年化收入达到了650亿美元。
The company's rate rate run rate hit 65,000,000,000 by the end of July.
收入的急剧加速增长增强了Anthropic的底气。
The dramatic acceleration in revenue bolsters.
Anthropic计划上市,已和OpenAI秘密提交了上市文件,预计Anthropic最早今年秋天就会在华尔街亮相,领先于OpenAI。
Anthropic's plans for a public listing, Anthropic and OpenAI filed confidential paperwork to go public with Anthropic expected to make its Wall Street debut as soon as this fall ahead of, OpenAI.
所以本季度收入为115亿美元,而2025年同期为7.87亿美元。
So the on the quarter, 1, 11,500,000,000, compared with $787,000,000 in the corresponding period in 2025.
好了,这就是那些数字。
Alright, that's those numbers.
顺便说一句,他们一直在说这家公司增长得特别快。
By the way, they say a lot, this company is growing like exceptionally fast.
而且我们现在看到的数据更像是真正的财务报表,有季度收入,不只是年化运行率,我知道你讨厌那个。
And we have numbers that that are look more like real financial statements, quarterly revenue, not just run rate, which I know you hate.
你对Anthropic的增长有什么看法?
Your reaction here to Anthropic's growth.
这让我更期待有一天能看到你所说的更符合真实财务报表的数据,但我们还没到那一步,因为,好吧,这里有两部分。
I am this made me even more excited about the day we get to see you said more in line with financial, real financial statements but we're not quite there yet because again, okay, two parts of this.
第一,天哪,这就像是在让我们倒推你7月和8月的收入,而你却说,好吧,截至6月30日的季度,我们赚了115亿美元,但年化运行率是650亿,所以收入加速了多少?这就像是在倒推计算,而不是直接说,这是我们在4月、5月和7月赚的,这是图表,显示它在向右上方增长。
One, my God still it's like trying to make us backward calculate your July and August revenue when you're like, well actually quarter ending June 30, we made $11,500,000,000 but it's a $65,000,000,000 run rate, so what was the revenue acceleration like trying to backwards calculate that versus just saying, here's what we made in April and May and July and here's a graph that shows it's going up into the right.
这才是应该发生的,因为再说一次,一个季度5亿美元,显然是在加速,但那仍然不是一年650亿,我不知道,我真的很期待真实数据的公布。
That's what should be happening because again, 500,000,000 in a quarter, obviously if it's accelerating but that's still not 65,000,000,000 over a one year period like, I don't know, we're I'm excited for real numbers to come out.
我希望它们能公布出来。
I hope they come out.
我有点觉得,这次IPO被炒得这么热,他们会不会直接说,不,不上市了。
There's part of me that's like, is this IPO so hyped that they could just be like, nope.
就算上市了,他们可能还是只给我们模糊的年化收入数字,而且居然还能蒙混过关。
We're only gonna give you vague run rate numbers even as a public company somehow, and they get away with it.
但我对这些数字还是不太放心。
But I'm not comfortable with these numbers yet.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得他们不可能做到那样。
I don't see how they could how could they ever do that.
我一直很好奇这类报道里的数字是怎么来的。
I'm always curious how the numbers come out in in stories like this.
你觉得这些数字会作为定期更新的一部分提供给投资者,但还有一种可能,就是他们上市时,彭博那篇报道的消息来源是“知情人士”,听起来像是Anthropic自己递出来的。
Now you think we'll have the numbers as come part of its regular update with investors, but there's also the prospect that they're going public and the sourcing in the Bloomberg story is according to people familiar with the matter, which sounds like it might have been delivered in an envelope from Anthropic.
虽然我因为猜测被批评了,但真的,不是那样。
Although I'm getting trouble for speculating, but it's like No.
不是。
No.
但是
But
把数字放出来,对Anthropic确实有好处,可以吓退OpenAI,让他们不敢抢在前面上市。
really in Anthropic's interest to get the numbers out there to scare OpenAI away from trying to go public before them.
不知道。
Don't know.
你怎么看?
What do you think?
不不。
No, no.
每次遇到这种情况,我以前做直接面向消费者的电商时,也经历过准备IPO的过程。
Whenever this happens, when I was in my past direct to consumer ecommerce experience, was part of potential IPO proceeding.
保密程度非常高,要是我们哪怕跟老婆、家人、朋友透露一点数字,都会被银行家们骂死。
The level of secure like, if we were to ever even say figures to our wives and families and friends, we would get annihilated by the bankers.
所有人都想尽办法防止任何数字泄露给媒体。
Everyone did everything they could to prevent any kind of leaking of any figure to the press.
而且,你看,每次都很巧,我们都能看到这些数字,这很明显是Anthropic在公园里搞的公关秀,一切都是精心策划的。
And meanwhile, like, every conveniently at any moment, I mean, we're all seeing these numbers like this is a very and again Anthropic sandwich in the park, are coms masters, like all this stuff is orchestrated.
我觉得这肯定是有意为之,不管是投资者提供的信封还是其他人,因为几乎可以肯定,如果这些数字真的是泄露的,那应该追究Anthropic内部和负责IPO的银行家的责任。但这种情况已经持续一段时间了,我们以前记得估值不会公开与融资轮挂钩,那本来是投资者在竞争领域中的筹码,现在却成了公开的秘密。
I can't like it has to be and whether it's an investor providing that envelope or whoever else like, because almost by definition, if this number were truly leaked, should be held to pay within Anthropic, within the bankers that are actually working on this IPO, but this has happened for a while now, we're like, again, in the past remember valuations didn't weren't attached publicly to a funding round, that was supposed to be like, actually like leverage for investors in a competitive space and now it's a given that that's gonna come out.
所以,是的。
So yeah.
我觉得,实际上,我认为这不仅仅是猜测。
I I think I actually think I don't think that's just speculation.
我认为这确实是这个故事被报道的一个重要部分。
I think that's actually an important part of how this story does get reported.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这确实有点内行人的感觉,但我觉得我们有责任在这里聊聊这类事情背后的运作方式。
I think it's you know, it does feel inside baseball a little bit, but it's I think it's our duty here to sort of talk through sort of how the sausage is made in situations like this.
所以我很高兴我们聊到了这个话题。
So I'm really I'm glad that we covered it.
现在基本上,Anthropic 看起来有望在今年秋天上市,那也不远了,虽然现在北半球还挺暖和的。
And now if basically, Anthropic is seemingly on track to IPO this fall, which is not so far away, even though it's it's warm in the Northern Hemisphere now.
离秋天凉爽的日子也不远了,我们可能会看到 Anthropic 的 IPO,说不定 Dario 会去敲钟。
We're not too far away for the crispy days of fall, and we could be seeing an Anthropic IPO with potentially Dario ringing the bell.
那得多疯狂啊?
How crazy would that be?
Dario 会去敲钟吗?
Does Dario ring the bell?
敲钟这种事,对他来说是不是太普通了?
Does that feel too pedestrian to ring the bell?
我是说,也许吧,你会不会觉得……因为我不太确定。
I mean, maybe does you do you sort of because I don't know.
会不会是 Claude 去敲钟?
Does Claude do it?
那听起来太老套了。
That seems cliche.
他会敲钟的。
He'll ring it.
他会敲钟的。
He'll ring it.
他只能敲一次、两次或三次。
He only get to do it once or twice or three times.
但我不确定。
But I don't know.
也许让Claude来敲钟。
Maybe maybe Claude ringing the bell.
我不知道那会是什么样子。
I don't know how that what that's gonna look like.
机械臂上挂着一个智能体。
Robotic arm with an agent attached to it.
这就是我想看到的。
That's what I wanna see.
这就是我想看到的。
That's what I wanna see.
对。
Yeah.
那绝对是史上难得一见的画面。
That would be seriously a a visual for the ages.
好了。
All right.
我们来看看OpenAI,因为他们的第二季度数据也公开了。
Let's move over to OpenAI because we also have their second quarter numbers, which just so happened to make it out into the public as well.
据《华尔街日报》报道,OpenAI告诉投资者,他们的收入从第一季度到第二季度增长了18%,但亏损也在扩大。
And this from the Wall Street Journal, OpenAI told investors its revenue grew by 18% from the first quarter to the second quarter while its losses deepened.
这一结果让一些股东感到失望,他们原本希望这家初创公司能在追赶竞争对手Anthropic方面取得更多进展。
Results had disappointed some shareholders who had hoped that the startup would show more progress catching up to rival Anthropic.
抱歉。
Sorry.
听起来像是投资者泄露的。
That sounds like the investors leaked it.
我不知道。
I don't know.
看起来不像OpenAI自己决定公布的。如果OpenAI真的发布了这些数字,他们可能对报道的角度不太满意。
Doesn't seem like OpenAI decided that that if if OpenAI did put those numbers out, they're probably not happy with how it was framed.
对。
No.
没错。
Exactly.
而且,还有报道说,Sarah Fryer在全员大会上提到,他们要到2027年才会IPO。
And, again, there's reporting that Sarah Fryer in an all hands said that they're not IPO until 2027.
就是说,OpenAI,好吧。
Like, OpenAI okay.
我们俩都猜错了。
We were both off.
丹尼斯·德雷瑟辞去首席营收官一职,而且,你知道,这个对我来说感触更深,因为我做企业AI这块。我可以告诉你,当时在场的每个人,包括我,都惊得下巴掉地上了。因为才上任八个月,这位首席营收官,背景非常出色,我记得是Slack的CEO,对吧。
Denise Dresser leaving as chief revenue officer, and again, I know this one hits closer to home for me working in enterprise AI and I can say that this writer like everyone was like jaws hitting the floor because eight months into the job, the chief revenue officer who is like a stellar background in was I think Slack CEO yes.
你觉得那边到底发生了什么?
Under I mean, what what do you think is going on over there?
你觉得是怎么回事?
What do you think is going on?
这个问题我已经等了一个月想问你了。
Been waiting to ask you this for a month now.
所以不只是德雷瑟一个人。
So it's not just Dresser.
对吧?
Right?
这是来自那篇期刊文章的消息。
So this is a this is from this journal story.
上周,公司更换了首席营收官丹尼斯·德雷瑟,她上任还不到一年。
Last week, the company replaced its chief revenue officer Denise Dresser after she spent less than a year on the job.
她的离职之前已经有一连串其他高管离开,包括前首席运营官布拉德·莱特卡普,以及曾被视为山姆·奥特曼接班人的菲吉·西莫。
Her departure followed a string of other exits, including former chief operating officer Brad Lightcap and Fiji Simo once seen as the heir apparent to chief executive Sam Altman.
所以确实有很多人离职。
So it is a lot of departures.
菲吉当然是因为健康原因,但布拉德·莱特卡普的离开是个大事。
Fiji, of course, health related reasons, but Brad Lightcap is a big one.
你看。
Look.
我觉得这其实就是他们在编码方面被Anthropic狠狠打击的后果。
I think this is just the consequences of them, you know, really getting their butt kicked by Anthropic on the way to coding.
他们花了几个月时间调整方向,把重心放在Codex上,而Codex还在发布过程中。
And they've taken a few months to sort of turn their ship and focus it on Codex, which is still in the process of of being released.
所以,你知道,他们在七月份左右就推出了第一个版本。
So, you know, they got their first draft out of it before, you know, in sometime in July.
现在他们要开始优化了。
And now they're going to refine.
但这显然是一种非常强大且利润丰厚的人工智能形式。
But this is obviously a very powerful and very lucrative form of artificial intelligence.
而他们目前处于劣势。
And they are behind the eight ball right now.
所以当这种情况发生时,是的,收入增长往往会比人员增长慢。
So when that happens, yeah, revenue tends to grow more slowly than the arrivals.
我的意思是,这个季度赚了70亿美元。
I mean, made 7,000,000,000 in the quarter.
这不算
It's not
差。
bad.
对。
Yeah.
但那不是
But that's not
但那会引发动荡。
But that leads to tumult.
但动荡是一回事,拜戈利又是另一回事。
But there's tumult, and then there's bygali.
因为那就像
Because that's like
我们这一集里会迎来第二个拜戈利。
We're gonna get a second bygali in one episode.
好吗?
Okay?
我觉得那个拜戈利,三位高管离职。
I think the the by golly, three senior executives leaving.
而且不只是高管,尤其是那个本该像斐济一样的人,还有丹尼斯,比如企业才是未来。
Also, not just senior executives, each the one that is supposed to be like especially Fiji and then Denise, like, enterprise is the future.
我们会专注于此,等等等等。
We're gonna focus, etcetera, etcetera.
这些人就是负责这些工作的。
These are the people leading those efforts.
而且你的业务并没有在崩溃。
Like and you're not your business isn't collapsing.
我不知道。
I don't know.
对我来说,而且,如果你真的在实施一个宏伟计划,要把我们生活中最大的消费故事之一转向企业市场,你会得到超过八个月的时间。
To me, like and also, like, if you were to be executing on some giant vision to pivot one of the biggest consumer stories of our lives into enterprise, you would get more than eight months.
而且,八个月内根本不可能完成。
Like you would that does not happen in eight months anyways.
再说,她来了之后,即使离职过程,你知道,也不是一瞬间发生的。
And again, for her to come in and then even the leaving process, you know it's not it doesn't happen in a moment.
这需要几周甚至几个月的时间。
Like, it's gonna happen over weeks and months.
所以,我也不太清楚。
So, like, I don't know.
对我来说,这才是最让人想不通的地方。
Like, that to me, that's the part that is just still kinda crazy.
就是整个时间点。
That timing of all of it.
对。
Yeah.
嗯,我有个想法,想跟你聊聊。
Well, I have I have a theory on this, and I kinda wanna run run it by you.
不是什么特别劲爆的,但跟组织架构有关。
It's not like anything too juicy, but it is organizational.
对吧?
Right?
所以,公司会经历——我也待过快节奏的初创公司。
So, like, companies, they go through and I've been a part of fast growing startups.
我了解你。
I know you.
对。
Yeah.
我至少经历过两家这样的公司。
I have at least two of them.
我知道你过去是这样,现在也是。
I know you have in the past and are now.
你不觉得吗,创业公司的运作方式就是,有一批领导从几乎没钱的时候一直带到一千万。
Don't you like, in the way that startups work is there's a certain group of leaders that are there from, like, you know, sort of no money to 10,000,000.
然后还有一批人从一千万带到一亿,再有一批人从一亿带到五亿。
Then there's, like, a certain group that's there from 10,000,000 to a 100 and a certain group from a 100 to, like, 500.
对吧?
Right?
所以,在创业公司工作的混乱之一就是领导层不断更替,因为先是有想法的人,然后是有能力把你从A轮带到B轮的人。
So you're so part of the chaos of working for a startup is constant leadership to not turnover because there's the people with the idea, then there's the people that notice sort of take you from, like, series a to series b.
所以,他们开始把一些流程标准化,也开始真正地规范你的高速增长。
So there's, like, they start to standardize some of the processes, and they start to, like, really structure your hyper growth.
然后你会引进一些来自大公司的更有经验的高管,他们把你的初创公司变成大公司。
And then you bring in, like, more seasoned executives from bigger companies who, like, turn your startup into a big company.
对吧?
Right?
所以,你知道,在初创公司工作,有一天,那个雇用你的人,你在他手下工作了好几个月的人,突然就不在了,这并不罕见。
And so like, you know, it's not uncommon to like work in a startup one day, the person that hired you, like, you've been like working underneath for months is gone.
然后会有新人进来,因为他们习惯和大型上市前公司合作,然后你上市了,又会有另一个人。
And there's like some new person that comes in because they're used to working with big pre IPO companies, and then you IPO and there's another person.
但这里没有,我只是想说说。
So but here's no, I just want to talk through.
我不是在找借口。
I'm not not excusing.
我只是想解释一下。
I just want to explain something.
OpenAI,你知道,就像这个周期里的一切一样,OpenAI正在把那个过程压缩到前所未有的最短时间内。
OpenAI is, you know, as as with everything in this cycle, OpenAI is compacting compacting that thing into the shortest amount of time that it ever has.
即使是超高速增长的初创公司,他们在这样做的时候,也会停下来喘口气,成长,再停下来喘口气,再成长。
Like even hyper growth startups, when they do that, they take a moment, they grow, they breathe, they take a moment, they grow, they breathe.
我是说,想想我们从Anthropic读到的数字,从不到10亿美元到一个季度115亿美元,可能在我们现在这个季度还会更多。
I mean, just think about the numbers we read from Anthropic, You know, under $1,000,000,000 to 11,500,000,000 in a quarter and maybe more in a in a quarter we're currently in.
对吧?
Right?
这太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
所以,你大概会看到这种疯狂的局面。
So that's sort of you get you get this kind of madness.
不。
No.
不。
No.
但我百分之百同意你的看法,因为我曾经在,而且现在也在一个增长非常快的初创公司里。
But I I 1000% agree with you having been and currently in a very fast growing scaling start up.
就是那种快速扩张的初创公司,你描述得太准确了。
Like scaling start up and that keyword start up, you described it perfectly.
这些公司追求的是两万亿美元的市值,比世界上绝大多数公司都要大。
These are companies that are seeking $2,000,000,000,000 market capitalization valuations that are bigger than the vast majority of companies in the world.
这根本不算初创公司了。
These are not startups.
而且如果他们想要那样的估值,至少在我看来,运营模式应该更接近上市前的初创公司,就像你说的,而不是那种B轮到C轮、C轮到D轮,还在试探市场的感觉。
And like if they want those valuations, you have to at least to me, like the operating model should be more in the line, at least pre IPO startup as you said, like, which they are, rather than that series b to c, c to d, kinda like testing the waters.
如果你想要那样的估值,就得表现出一点成熟度。
If you want that valuation, you gotta show a little bit of maturity.
他们可是在要两万亿美元啊。
This they're asking for 2,000,000,000,000.
对。
Yes.
好的。
Okay.
问题是这样的。
Here here's the thing.
它们在一个很重要的方面确实是初创公司。
They are startups in one really important way.
那就是,没错,它们的数字跟任何大企业一样大。
And that is like, yes, the numbers are as big as any enterprise company.
大多数。
Most.
对吧?
Right?
但初创公司的一个特点就是,你还没有完全确定你的产品。
But one of the things that defines a startup is you're not fully set on your product.
你知道,你成为一个成熟的公司,就像老问题说的,什么是初创公司,什么不是?
You know, you become an established people like the old question, well, what's a startup and what's not?
我的意思是,当你不再是一家初创公司时,就是你有了一个可以销售的产品,对吧?
I mean, of it is you sort of when you're not a startup anymore, when you have a thing that you sell, right?
而且它基本上就是那个固定的东西。
And it's just kind of the thing.
你找到了产品市场契合点,然后稳定下来。
You sort of find that product market fit and you settle into it.
这就是你现在的状态。
And that's what you are now.
当然,你会适应变化。
Of course, you adapt.
但OpenAI和Anthropic之所以具有初创公司的特性,是因为他们正在开发的技术还不成熟。
But the thing with OpenAI and Anthropic, by the way, that gives them the nature of a startup is there's the technology that they're developing is not mature.
它还在成长中。
It's still growing.
能力在快速增长。
The capabilities are growing fast.
产品也在快速发展。
The offering is growing fast.
所以即使数字看起来像大公司,你也没有传统大公司的那种稳定性。
So you don't have the stability of a traditional big company, even if the numbers look like you do.
这就是我想说的重点。
So this this is the kind of point I was gonna make.
当你引进像Slack前CEO丹尼斯·德雷瑟这样的人时——当然这只是我的猜测——
When you bring in somebody like Denise Dresser from Slack, and I'm just this is speculation.
当你引进像Slack前CEO这样的人时,那个人可能很适合处理数字方面的事情。
When you bring in somebody like this former CEO of Slack, that person is a good fit for the numbers.
但他们能适应那种混乱和摸索的阶段吗?
But are they a good fit for the chaos and the figuring it out part?
这就是为什么这些职位很难招人,也很难留住人,因为你要找的两种特质很难同时具备。
That is what's gonna make these roles so difficult to hire for and so difficult to keep people in because it doesn't really line up the two things that you're looking for.
好的。
All right.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
这点我承认。
I'll give you that.
这点我承认,比如,企业级是未来吗?
I'll give you that that, like, is enterprise the future?
云业务是未来吗?
Is a cloud business the future?
个人设备、可穿戴设备或者家用产品呢?
Is personal devices or wearables or household?
比如,尤其是在OpenAI的情况下,非常开放。
Like, especially in the OpenAI case, wide open.
在那种“什么都可以”的意义上。
In that Anything sense
顺便说一句,那什么是企业呢?
that is, by the way, what is enterprise?
你在卖什么?
What are you selling?
这些是……
These are the
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
这个问题很简单。
It's very easy question.
而且,这在我的领域里也是这样。
And again, that's in my world.
是不是把 Codex 卖给企业里的开发者,这是目前的故事吗?
Is it codex to developers within enterprises, which has been the current story?
还是知识工作,他们有点像在尝试进入聊天式 PT 工作的那种?
Is it knowledge work, which they're kind of like chatty PT work and trying to get into?
但没关系。
But that okay.
这很公平。
That's fair.
就像,他们和其他人一样,在某种意义上也是初创公司。
Like, they're a startup like anyone else in that sense.
对。
Yeah.
总之,我们拭目以待。
Anyway, we will see.
但我觉得这些报告的核心结论是,Anthropic 势头正猛,看起来它正在和 OpenAI 拉开差距。
But I think bottom line from these reports is Anthropic juggernaut en route to like, it seems like Anthropic is putting some distance between itself and OpenAI.
我也不确定。
And I don't know.
你知道,其实从今年年初开始,Anthropic 就明显领先了一点点,但现在这个差距好像越来越大了。
I I you know, it's sort of, you know, it was clear that Anthropic had a small lead, over the past you know, basically since the beginning of the year this year, but that that gap seems to seems to be growing.
这并不是说 OpenAI 没能力追上来或者再次超越 Anthropic,但至少从目前的局势来看,是的,Anthropic 正在和 OpenAI 拉开距离。
It's not to say an OpenAI isn't capable of closing it or surpassing Anthropic again, but at least when you look at the state of play right now, yeah, Anthropic is putting some distance between itself and OpenAI.
我觉得在成熟市场的 AI 应用方面,我想听听关于旅游的案例,因为我们接下来几周几个月都会聊 Anthropic 和 OpenAI,我想听你说说你坐在迪拜的酒店房间里,怎么论证旅游才是 Agentic 的正确应用场景,而且这没问题。
I think in terms of AI use cases in markets that are mature, I'd like to hear about travel because we're going be talking about Anthropic and OpenAI for a few So months and weeks on I wanna hear you're sitting in a Dubai hotel room.
我希望你来说服大家,旅游确实是 Agentic 的合适方向,而且这完全说得通。
I want you to pitch that actually travel is the right story for AgenTic, and that's okay.
好,那行。
So so okay.
对,在结束之前,我们得聊聊这个。
So, yeah, before we go, we have to talk about this.
Ranjan,你和我,我觉得我们之间一直有一种来回拉扯的关系,就是关于把旅行当作一个有价值的关键用例,它能告诉我们一些关于AI能力的事情。
Ranjan, you and I, think we've had, like, this back and forth relationship on talking about travel as, a worthwhile key use case that tells us something about AI's capabilities.
而且,你知道,在我们的峰会上,比如我提出了一个旅行用例,你就说,你知道,把这个留在门外吧,兄弟,或者类似的话。
And, you know, at our summit, for instance, like I brought up a travel use case, and you're like, you know, leave that at the door, man, or something of that nature.
而且我过去几周一直在旅行。
And I've been traveling over the past couple of weeks.
而且,你知道,我可能还会在通讯稿里再写一次这个。
And, you know, and I'm probably gonna write about this again in the newsletter.
但我认为,当评估AI能力时,旅行实际上是一个绝佳的试验场。
But I think that like travel, when it comes to assessing AIs capabilities, is actually an excellent proving ground.
好吧,我要用三个要点来论证这个观点。
Alright, I'm gonna make the case with three quick points.
第一个是,当你旅行的时候,你需要用某种东西来筛选大量信息,大量信息,做什么,住哪里,吃什么,怎么去,怎么回来,哪些天开门,哪些天不开。
The first one is when you're when you're traveling, you're you're you need to use something to sort through a lot of information, a lot of information, what to do, where to stay, what to eat, how to get there, how to get home, what days things are open on what they're not.
互联网,互联网,网页在这些事情上很糟糕。
The internet, the internet, the web is terrible for these things.
而且网上提供这些信息的人动机也很差,到处都是联盟链接和虚假评论网站。
And there are terrible incentives to provide the information for you, like all the affiliate links online and all the all the fake review sites.
所以我觉得这简直是生成式AI的用武之地,它能吸收所有信息,加上上下文,加上一点智能,然后以简洁的方式呈现给你。
So I think that this is like something that's kind of made for generative AI, which takes in all the information, adds context, adds a little intelligence, and then provides it to you in a succinct way.
第二点是,旅行中你面对的其实是一连串大大小小的任务,而且这些任务总是在变化。
The second thing is that with travel, what you're dealing with basically is a cascading series of small and big tasks that are always changing in some way.
所以我觉得,作为AI的测试场,旅行其实非常合适,因为它很像一些高风险的场景,比如你在工作中做项目。
So I think as an eval, so to speak, for AI, it's actually really good because it resembles, you know, some more high stakes type of cases where you're like, maybe at work and you're you're you're working a project.
项目里有什么呢?项目里也是一连串大大小小的任务,而且总是在变化。
Well, what does you have in a project, you have a cascading series of small and big tasks that are always changing in some way.
但旅行这个例子最好的地方在于,你可以在旅行中低成本地做更多实验,而不是像在工作中那样。
But the best thing about about the, you know, the travel example is that you can experiment more at lower cost on a travel on a trip than you can, let's say at work.
这是个很好的方式,如果AI在旅行任务上表现出色,那么作为评估,你就能更有信心,虽然它可能不会完美通过你的工作测试,但你会更放心把它用在更有经济价值的任务上,因为旅行处于我所说的“金发姑娘区”——重要但又不是特别重要的任务。
And that's a great way to and if AI aces, you know, your tasks there, you can you can, you know, looking at it again as an evaluation, you can be somewhat clear that it's going to, you know, maybe not ace your work test, but you can feel more comfortable putting it towards more economically valuable tasks because travel is in the what I'm going to call like the Goldilocks zone of important but not so important tasks.
所以旅行中如果你搞砸了什么事,那是真的有后果的。
So there's real stakes when you're traveling and you fail at something.
比如,如果你到了地方,发现你订的酒店其实是ChatGPT瞎编出来的,那确实有实际影响,但也不是什么灾难性的后果。
Like, if you show up and, like, the the hotel that you booked was actually hallucinated by Chatchipati, you know, there's real stakes, but it's not a disastrous stake.
你不会因此丢掉公司。
Like, you don't lose your company.
你顶多就是走几条街,重新订一家酒店,可能比预期多花点钱,但这事儿你扛得住。
You just kinda have to walk down, the block and book a different hotel maybe for a little bit more than you were anticipating to pay, but you can sort of survive that.
所以我觉得旅行真的是测试AI的绝佳场景。
That's why I think travel is such a great eval for AI.
而且说实话,今年旅行跟去年夏天比,我真切感受到了AI能力的提升,就拿最新版ChatGPT来说,我几乎把所有规划和后勤工作都交给它了。
And I certainly like, you know, traveling this year compared to last summer was really able to experience like the capability increase of, you know, let's just say, like, the latest versions of ChatGPT where I did, like, almost all the planning and logistics work.
你觉得呢?
What do you think?
你现在站我这边了吗?
Are you gonna are you on my side now?
你同意我的看法吗?
Are you with me?
我没事。
I okay.
我刚结束自己过去一个月的长途旅行回来,其实我不得不同意你的看法。
Just coming back from my own extended travels over the past month, I I actually am not gonna disagree with you.
我不会反对,我喜欢这个框架。
I'm not gonna I like the framing.
我喜欢把旅行作为评估标准的这个框架。
I like the framing travel as the eval.
实际上我挺喜欢这个想法的。
I actually kind of love that in fact.
说实话,我觉得我们需要更多贴近普通人的评估,而不是那些最新的基准测试。
Honestly, I believe there needs to be more actual normie evals as opposed to whatever latest benchmark there is.
我们应该构建一个涵盖康托罗维奇、TripAdvisor、旅行预订、通勤、Google Flights的评估体系。
The cantorowicz, TripAdvisor, travel booking, comming, Google flights eval, we should construct.
但有趣的是,我唯一不同意的一点是,你说如果ChatGPT虚构了你的酒店,那并不算灾难。
But it's funny, do the one thing I'll disagree with is, you said if ChatGPT hallucinates your hotel, it's not disastrous.
带着老婆孩子去旅行,我其实不同意你的说法,因为如果那样做的话,我有自己的经历。我去西班牙的时候,开玩笑说,这基本上就是AI生成的假期,其实是我老婆想去巴塞罗那。
Traveling with a wife and child, I would actually disagree because if I did that, but I had my own kind of so I went to Spain and I was like joking, it was kind of like an AI generated vacation that basically my wife wanted to go to Barcelona.
我去过那里很多次了,所以我就说,我们在那儿待几天吧,但我基本上给了AI一堆要求,特别具体,比如我想要在特定价格范围内性价比最高的Airbnb,而且要有游泳池。
I've been there a bunch, so like, I was like, we'll do a few days there, but I basically gave AI a bunch of requirements, like really specific around, like I want best value for Airbnb in a specific price range with a pool at the Airbnb.
我想要浮潜,但水要浅,因为我儿子还在学游泳。
I want like snorkeling but shallow water as my son is only still learning to swim.
我想要沙滩。
I want sandy beach.
我给了所有这些要求,它推荐了西班牙的德尼亚,我们去了四天,那里不游客化,而且八月的西班牙很多地方就像巴塞罗那一样,我们除了工作人员,一个西班牙人都没看到。
I gave all this stuff and it came up with Denia, Spain and we went for four days and not touristy and a lot of Spain in August is just like Barcelona, we didn't see a single Spanish person other than people working like.
德尼亚太棒了。
It was Daniel was amazing.
那是我很久以来感觉最好的一次旅行,就像你发现新事物一样,真的很神奇,是AI带我去的。
It was like one of the best had been so long since I'd like actually felt kind of like traveling that, you know, like you discover something and it really is kind of magical and AI got me there.
那真的就是一堆要求而已。
It was literally set of requirements.
而且在这个过程中,我还会创建一个markdown文件,里面包含所有租车预订号,甚至还有护照信息,希望这些信息都能安全保存。
And then also during the process as well, creating a markdown file with context of all your rental car booking numbers, even now having passport information, everything, hopefully secure.
但我的意思是,不不,然后还能快速问一下,哦等等,我的租车号是多少?
But like, I mean, no no, like and then being able to quickly ask, oh wait, what's my rental car number?
在西班牙租车需要什么条件?
What's required for rental at budget like in Spain?
所有这些。
All of that.
AI带我去了西班牙的德尼亚。
AI got me to Dena, Spain.
我不想把这个隐藏的宝藏地方公之于众,但我们的听众,你们绝对值得去那里,我强烈推荐。
I don't wanna uncover this hidden gem, but to our listeners, you deserve certainly to make it there and would highly recommend it.
对。
Yeah.
这本来应该是一场辩论,但我很高兴你在这点上算是认同我的看法。
This was supposed to be a debate, but I'm glad you sort of see it see it my way on this one.
我也有过非常类似的经历。
And I had such a similar experience.
对我来说,这次旅行在后勤安排上真的非常复杂。
I mean, for me, you know, this trip, I it was a very logistically challenging trip.
大概十五天的时间里,我在印度尼西亚跑了四五个岛屿。
Like, I think I was on maybe four or five islands in Indonesia over, like, the span of, like, fifteen days.
然后回来的时候经过迪拜,整个后勤安排非常顺畅。
And then, yeah, coming back through Dubai, and it was just logistically so so seamless.
我该做的事情都做了。
I had what I had to do.
我在一个聊天里就计划好了。
I planned it in one chat.
上飞机前,我告诉它每天早上六点,搜索聊天记录、Gmail和日历,给我一份当天所有事情的简报,包括所有需要知道的号码等等。
And before I boarded the plan, I said every day, 6AM, I want you to search the chat, search Gmail, search my calendar, give me a brief of everything that's going on today, all the all the numbers I should be aware of, all these things.
它一直做得很好,直到大概两天前,因为我想换信用卡,我的账户被取消了,结果降级到了免费版ChatGPT,等我回去再重新升级到高级版。
And it did perfectly until, I think, like, I had, like, canceled because my account because I wanted to switch credit cards, and I was, defaulted back to the free free version of ChatGPT, like two days ago, and I'm going to rekind of premium when I get back.
但是免费版的ChatGPT实在太难用了,我迫不及待想回到好用的付费版。
But the free version of ChatGPT sucks so bad, and I cannot wait to be back on the good Go stuff ahead.
其实你刚才说的有一点我很喜欢,就是复杂行程和旅行安排的野心正在大大增加。
So actually, one thing you said I kind of love is the the ambition of complex logistics and travel increase is increasing significantly.
因为我还记得,以前和家人旅行的时候,甚至更早,那时候要打印地图路线,放进文件夹里,还有所有信息和行程安排,你其实不会安排太复杂的行程,因为你不想把事情搞砸。
Because I remember like again, whether travel with family even before, I I remember that being old, the days of like printing out map quests into a folder and all your information and itinerary, you would actually include less ambitious logistics cause you just didn't want it to fuck up.
你不想最后陷入旅行灾难。
You didn't want to like end up in a travel disaster.
再说,以前我独自在亚洲旅行的时候,可能会更有野心,因为那时候觉得走一步算一步。
Again, when I was traveling like alone throughout Asia and stuff, maybe you took on ambition because they're going back to like whatever happens happens.
但这次旅行,有很多变化和转换,租了车,订了酒店,还有在偏远地方的Airbnb,没有房东接待,只有密码锁,等等,但一切还是很顺利。
But like now this trip, there was a lot of lot of changes and transitions and cars rented and hotels booked and the Airbnb like in a remote place where no host is checking you in and there's a lockbox and all of that, and it was still perfect.
因为,我以前并不是一个喜欢做详细计划的人,但这次让我感觉,就像我那些痴迷于做旅行表格的朋友一样,他们早在2000年代就会为旅行做电子表格。
Because and I'm not a huge planner planner in the past, and this actually makes me feel as empowered as my obsessive friends who would create spreadsheets for trips back in the two thousands.
所以,是的,我喜欢这种旅行的野心。
So yeah, I like that ambition to travel.
对。
Yeah.
对,确实。
Yeah, definitely.
而且这不是我的强项,所以看到它还挺酷的。
And it's not my strong suit, so it was cool to see it.
好。
Alright.
我们就聊到这儿吧。
We'll leave it with that.
Ranjan,很高兴你回来了。
Ranjan, great to have you back.
你的光荣回归。
Your glorious return.
不早不晚,刚刚好。
Not a minute, too too soon or too late.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我们很高兴你能回来,也期待着我们重新开始。
We're glad to have you and looking forward to doing this We're back.
那会是六。
It's gonna be a six.
那会是个秋天。
It's gonna be a fall.
那会是个秋天。
It's gonna be a fall.
请稍等。
Hold on, please.
不。
No.
等等。
Wait.
抱歉。
Sorry.
天哪。
By golly.
天哪。
By golly.
我们开始吧。
Here we go.
谢谢,Ranjan。
Thanks, Ranjan.
好的。
Alright.
感谢大家的收听和观看,我们下期《大科技播客》再见。
Thanks, everybody, for listening and watching, and we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.
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