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在一个AI机器人数量已经超过人类的互联网里，网络会变成什么样？新闻信息发布者和小企业还能生存下去吗？
In an Internet where AI bots now outnumber humans, what happens to the web, and can news information publishers and small businesses survive?
接下来，Cloudflare的首席执行官马修·普林斯将和我们聊聊这个话题，就在广告之后。
That's coming up with Cloudflare CEO, Matthew Prince, right after this.
本期节目由Genesys赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Genesys.
如果你关注企业AI的实际发展方向，并且想深入了解新闻头条背后的内容，那你一定要看看今年九月的Genesys Experience 2026。
If you're following where enterprise AI is actually going and want to get deeper than the headlines, you're going to wanna check out Genesys experience twenty twenty six this September.
9月2日和3日，从拉斯维加斯直播的两天免费主题演讲，你将了解到Agentic Orchestration——客户体验的新运营模式，以及一些已经在规模化部署AI的组织的真实案例。
With two full days of free life keynotes streaming from Las Vegas on September second and third, you'll learn about Agentic Orchestration, the new operating model for customer experience, and real stories from organizations already deploying AI at scale.
我也会在那里为我们的YouTube频道拍摄采访。
And I'll be there filming interviews for our YouTube channel.
Experience 2026是企业领导者学习如何将客户体验转化为增长的地方，你可以全程观看直播。
Experience twenty twenty six is where enterprise leaders learn how to turn customer experience into growth, and you can watch it all live.
免费注册，请访问genesys.com/experience/broadcast。
Register free at genesys.com/experience/broadcast.
欢迎收听《大科技》播客，这是一个关于科技世界及其他领域的冷静、细致对话的节目。
Welcome to big technology podcast, a show for cool headed and nuanced conversation of the tech world and beyond.
现在，在互联网上，AI机器人已经比人类还多了。
Well, on the web, AI bots now outnumber humans.
所以，AI流量已经超过了人类流量，这显然正在改变新闻出版商、信息出版商以及小企业的生态和激励机制。
So we have more AI traffic than human traffic, and that's obviously changing the dynamics and the incentives for news publishers, information publishers, and, of course, small businesses.
那么，互联网会变成什么样呢？
So what is gonna happen to the web?
今天，我们有幸请到了马修·普林斯。
Well, today, we are lucky to be joined by Matthew Prince.
他是Cloudflare的首席执行官。
He is the CEO of Cloudflare.
差不多一年前，他来过我们节目，聊了Cloudflare如何努力防止互联网消失。
He was with us almost exactly a year ago talking about Cloudflare's efforts to prevent the web from disappearing.
互联网还在，但可能没有一年前那么健康了，这当然不是因为那些努力失败了，而是因为AI的力量在持续推进。接下来，我们会聊聊这场战斗未来会怎么打。
The web is still here, but maybe not as healthy as it was, a year ago, and obviously not due to the failure of those efforts, but the force of AI marches on until we will talk about what that battle is going to look like moving forward.
马修，很高兴再次见到你。
Matthew, it's great to see you again.
欢迎回到节目。
Welcome back to the show.
谢谢你们邀请我。
Thanks for having me on.
好的。
Alright.
我们直接进入正题吧，最近Cloudflare发现，浏览网页的AI机器人数量已经超过了人类。
Let's go with the headline here, is that recently Cloudflare has found that AI bots outnumber humans browsing the web.
我有点说不准这到底算不算让人意外。
I I can't tell whether that's surprising or not.
我内心有一部分会觉得，嘿，你知道，这当然会发生，而且让人意外的是它刚刚才发生。
I think part of me would say, hey, you know, of of course, that's happened, and it's surprising that it just happened.
传统观点认为，网络上的机器人流量一直都不少，但请跟我们聊聊你看到的AI流量的激增情况，不管是抓取新信息的爬虫，还是执行操作的智能体，以及这说明了最近这类AI应用的崛起意味着什么。
There sort of conventional wisdom is there's always been a lot of bot traffic on the web, but just talk a little bit about the escalation in AI traffic that you're seeing, whether that's crawling for new information or agents taking action, and what it says about the rise in these type of AI applications recently.
对。
Yeah.
说实话，我确实挺惊讶的。
You know, I'm certainly surprised.
2025年11月在Web Summit上，有人问我，我们预计什么时候自动化流量会超过人类流量。
I was asked at Web Summit in November 2025 when when we thought that automated traffic would pass human traffic online.
我们拉出所有数据看了看，根据趋势做出的最佳估计是2027年下半年。
And we pulled all the data and looked at it, and we and our best estimate based on trends was that it was going to be in the second half of twenty twenty seven.
2026年3月在西南偏南大会上，我又被问了同样的问题。
At South by Southwest in March 2026, I was asked the same question again.
我们又拉了一次同样的数据。
We pulled the same data again.
然后我们就觉得，这有意思了。
And we're like, that's interesting.
时间提前了。
It's moved up.
现在我们觉得会在2027年上半年。
It's now we think it'll be in the first half of twenty twenty seven.
所以当我的团队在2026年5月来找我，说‘你肯定不信，我们现在看到自动化流量首次超过了人类流量，这在互联网历史上是头一回’的时候，我完全惊呆了。
And so I was I was floored when our team came to us and said when my team came to me and said, in in May of of of twenty twenty six, you won't believe it, but we now see that automated traffic is past human traffic for the first time in the history of the Internet.
我觉得这真的说明了进展有多快，而且实际上变化的速度本身也在加快，曲线的斜率越来越陡。
And and I think that that that really does just show how fast this is progressing and how fast the actually, the derivative is is changing, where the the slope of the line is getting is getting steeper.
如果我们只是按照目前的趋势来推算，让我震惊的是，只要快进五年，我们现在估计网上的自动化流量会是人类流量的一千倍。
And if we if we just assume the current trends, what's what's blows my mind is that if you just fast forward five years from now, we estimate now that automated traffic online will be a thousand times what human traffic is.
这很了不起，因为人类流量会下降，而自动化流量在那段时间里只会继续疯狂增长。
And that's something because human traffic is gonna drop, it's gonna be because automated traffic is just gonna continue to rise like crazy over over that period of time.
这会给互联网资源带来巨大的压力。
And that's gonna put, you know, enormous strain on the resource of the Internet.
这会给基础设施带来巨大的压力。
It's gonna put enormous strain on the infrastructure.
Cloudflare团队思考的很多问题就是，我们如何确保互联网能够应对即将到来的、完全彻底的自动化流量冲击。
And and it's a lot of what, you know, the team at Cloudflare is thinking about is how do we make sure that the internet is ready for what is going to be just a complete and total onslaught of automated traffic?
对。
Right.
我相信你肯定听说过“死互联网理论”。
And I'm sure you've heard of dead internet theory.
但对于那些没听过的人来说，这个理论讲的是，有一天网络基本上会由机器人和自动化内容组成，而这些机器人会操纵这些内容来影响算法推荐。
But for those who haven't, it's this theory that one day the web is basically going to consist of bots and automated content, and the bots will be manipulating that content for algorithmic curation.
所以你在社交媒体上看到的内容，实际上就是一个看起来像真的、但其实是死掉的互联网。
So what you see in your social feed is effectively a dead internet that looks like it's real.
是的。
Yeah.
这显然跟那个理论有点不一样。
This is obviously a little different than that.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得我们看到的趋势其实跟那个理论正好相反。
Don't think actually, the trends we're seeing are kind of the opposite of that.
这确实挺有意思的。
It's actually interesting.
你知道，Cloudflare是在2010年成立并推出的。
For you know, Cloudflare started and launched in 2010.
大约在2015年，互联网的增长就停止了。
And and around 2015, the web stopped growing.
实际上，它趋于平稳，然后在过去十年里甚至略有下降。
In fact, it plateaued, then it was even declining slightly over the last ten years.
然后就在2025年10月左右，互联网又开始增长了，而且增长速度非常接近2000年代中期的水平。
And then right around October 2025, the the the web started growing again, and it started growing at a rate which which most closely resembled kind of the mid two thousands.
而且现在产生的内容，我觉得不能说是那种自动生成的垃圾内容。
And the content that's being created is not like, I would not describe it as as automated sort of slop.
虽然也有，但一直都有一些这样的内容。
There's some of that, but there's always been, you know, there's always been some of that.
我觉得真正发生的是，那些不太懂技术、资源也不多的人，但他们有有趣的想法，有故事要讲，有东西要分享，突然之间就能用上像Lovable、Riplit或者Base44和Wix团队做的那些很厉害的工具，然后用这些工具构建出相当复杂的应用。
What I think has happened instead is that, you know, people who were not particularly technical, people who didn't have a lot of resources, but they had an interesting idea, they had a story to tell, they had something to share, all of a sudden were able to use incredible tools like Lovable or Riplit or what the team over at Base forty four, Wix is doing, and then have those tools be able to build pretty sophisticated applications.
这几乎是Cloudflare历史上第一次，我们看到新创建的内容出现了爆炸式增长。
That's, for the first time almost in Cloudflare's history, we're seeing an explosive growth in things which are getting created.
而且这并没有让互联网变得更糟，我反而觉得现在的互联网正在变得更好。
And instead of it making the Internet worse, I actually think the Internet's getting better right now.
只是我们以后消费这些内容的界面会变得非常不同。
It's just the interface that we're all gonna consume it through is gonna be very different.
它会更多地通过某种AI界面来呈现。
It's gonna be much more mediated through some sort of an AI interface.
但我觉得这很了不起，即使你现在没有技术技能，也能拼凑出一个应用、一个网站，并且把它上线。
But I think it's incredible that you can, even if you don't have technical skills now, put together an application, put together a website, and bring that online.
再说一次，我觉得这真的很了不起。
And and again, I think that that's that that's remarkable.
而且我认为，实际上网络正在变得更健康，而不是更不健康。
And and I think it's actually making the the web is getting healthier, not less healthy right now.
好的。
Okay.
这一点我确实想追问一下，因为有一项相关研究显示，比如苹果应用商店里的应用虽然多了很多，但评价却在下降。
I actually want to press you on this one because one of the studies that was done about this showed that, like, for instance, while there are many more apps on the Apple App Store, for instance, the reviews are going down.
对吧？
Right?
看起来每周活跃用户并没有真正增加。
It seems like the weekly active users hasn't really increased.
所以，虽然确实能创造很多新东西，但其中很多——我知道你说过那不是垃圾内容，但感觉也差不多了。
So yes, there's been this ability to create a lot of new stuff, but it also seems like a lot of that I mean, I know you said it's not Slop, but something close to it.
你怎么看？
What do you think?
再说一次，我每天看到的，就是那些以前没有资源或能力的人，现在能创造出有价值的东西。
Again, I I what I see every day is just people who didn't have the resources or the ability able to create things which are valuable.
所以，是的，肯定会有一些没用的东西，这当然。
And so, yeah, is there gonna be stuff that's not valid, of course.
但我觉得总体来看，我们得到的好东西更多了。
But but I think that the net has been that we're getting more things that are out there.
我确实认为我们会越来越远离应用商店这种模式，因为那不会是我们重新连接它的界面。
I do think that we're gonna move more and more away from kind of an app store model because that's not gonna be interface where we where we where we reconnect with it.
而且应用商店在某种程度上对网络构成了巨大的威胁。
And and the app store, in some ways, was an enormous threat to the web.
比如，它把人们从网络上吸引走了。
Like, it it took people away from the web.
它可能是最大的力量之一，和Facebook一起，是让网络变得不那么有趣的两大力量。
It it was probably one of the biggest for between it and Facebook were, like, the two biggest forces that really made the web less interesting.
我认为现在把东西放回网络上，并确保它们在不同的AI系统中可访问，以对创作者有意义的方式，并确保创作者得到补偿，这实际上会让网络变得更好，而且这正是我们一直在看到的。
I think now putting things on back on the web and then making sure that they're accessible across the different AI systems in a way that makes sense for creators and and and make sure that creators get compensated is going to be something which actually, I think, will will will the web, and it's and it's exactly what we have, you know, been been seeing.
而且，我既有个人例子，比如同事、家人能够上网分享东西，也有专业例子，每天我都能收到人们的来信，他们说我能做到以前从未想过自己能做的事情。
And and and, again, I have both just personal examples from, you know, colleagues, family who have been able to get online and and tell things, but then also professional examples where every day I'm getting letters from people who are like, I'm able to do something that I was just never thought I would be capable of doing before.
利用这些令人难以置信的工具，再加上像Cloudflare这样的公司提供的基础设施，成本非常低。
And using some of these, again, incredible tools that are out there combined with the infrastructure that someone like Cloudflare provides very cost effectively.
我认为这实际上让人类在AI的辅助下比以往任何时候都更有创造力。
I think it's actually making it so that humans assisted with AI are more creative than they've ever been.
好的。
Okay.
我先暂停一下，说一下我们六月份举办的峰会网站。我说“我”的时候，其实应该加个引号，因为主要是Cloud Code工具链接入Cloudflare代理，帮我自动设置好了所有账户，还建好了网站。
I'm just going to pause to say, website for our summit, which happened in June, and when I'm saying I, I should really put quotes around it, it was mostly the Cloud Code harness hooking into the Cloudflare agent that went out and set up all these accounts for me built and the site.
我是说，这简直是一场灾难。
I mean, it's been a disaster.
想想以前你得怎么做，你得雇一整个团队。
Like, compare that with what you would have had to do in the past, which is, you know, hire whole
我根本做不到。
I wouldn't be able to.
绝对不可能。
There's no way.
连开始都难。
Couldn't even start.
资源方面，你一个人根本没法启动，所以你得雇人来干。
The resources would like, you alone wouldn't be able to start, so you'd hire someone to it.
是的，所以这让你能够做更多有趣的事情。
And and, yeah, so that that that has enabled you to do more interesting things.
我觉得这就是技术最好的地方，它让更多人能接触到以前接触不到的东西。
And I think that that's that's that's what technology at its best does, is it it empowers more people to have access to something than they had they had before.
我们这样做，哪怕是在十年前，也是不可能的。
We're doing this, you know, remote even just ten years ago.
比如说，要在两个不同的地方做四K视频的直播，那得花多少钱？
Like, what would it have cost to do, like, a live video setup with, you know, four k video, you know, in two different places?
光是租用演播室或者架设摄像机，可能就要几十万美元。
I mean, it would have been hundreds of thousands of dollars just to have the studio time or set up cameras in order to do this.
但我们却做到了。
And yet we've been able to do this.
我觉得人工智能也是一样的。
I think AI is no different.
它会让更多人能够发挥创造力，做有趣的事情。
It's going to enable more people to be able to be creative and do interesting things.
如果我们把激励机制搞对了，那希望也能让市场更有活力。
And if we get the incentives right, then hopefully it also makes it so that we can have more interest the marketplace.
我觉得这就像是在摸索未来五年互联网的商业模式。
I think there's like figuring out what's the business model of the next five years of the internet net.
我是说，未来五年里，搞清楚未来三十年互联网的商业模式，这绝对是当今技术领域最有趣也最重要的问题。
Mean, over the next five years, figuring out what the business model of the next thirty years of the Internet like, that's the most interesting and important question in technology today by far.
对。
Right.
如果我们做对了，我觉得我们就要迎来内容创作的黄金时代了，那可能会非常了不起。
If we get that right, I think it's it's we're about to be on a golden age of content creation, and and and it could be incredible.
如果我们搞错了，你知道，很容易就能列出一大堆糟糕的情况。
If we get it wrong, you know, there's there's a we can we can it's easy to list what the parade of horribles could be.
是的。
Yeah.
那我们就来深入聊聊这个吧。
And so let's let's dig into this.
对吧？
Right?
因为这里有两方面。
Because on there's two sides of it.
一方面是内容创作，另一方面是浏览这些内容。
There's the content creation side, and then there is the browsing of that content.
嗯。
Mhmm.
这其实有点延续我们去年聊的话题，就是越来越多的内容被AI抓取或访问。
And this is sort of picking up a little bit about what we spoke about last year is more and more that content is being crawled or accessed by AI.
对吧？
Right?
所以过去一年里，网站上的AI流量大幅增加，现在已经超过了人类流量。
So you've seen this this massive increase in AI traffic to websites in the past year to the point where it's now overtaken humans.
那你有没有观察到，这些AI访问主要是为了训练新模型，还是像人类一样使用网站的智能体，或者是测试时的查询？
So do you have any visibility into whether that is AI bots accessing it to train new models primarily, agents using those websites as a human would, or maybe a query at test time.
所以当机器人试图寻找答案时，它会访问一个网站，然后把内容带回聊天界面，而用户实际上并没有访问那个网站。
So as the bot is trying to find an answer it goes to a site and ends up bringing that back into the chatbot interface without a person actually going to the website itself.
那么，如果你有感知的话，这些比例是怎样的？
So what are the proportions, if you have any sense of that?
我的意思是，这些情况都有。
I mean, it's it's all of the above.
所以我认为所有这些都会推动事情的发展。
And so I think all of those will drive drive things.
随着越来越多的模型提供商上线，训练方面的确有所增加。
There's there's there's definitely an uptick in training as more model providers are are coming online.
OpenAI 比一年前爬取的内容稍微多一些。
OpenAI is crawling a little bit more than they did a year ago.
Anthropic 也比一年前爬取的内容稍微多一些。
Anthropics crawling a little bit more than they did a year ago.
但更多的是，现在有更多的人在构建模型。
But it's more that we've just got more people building models.
我觉得这很棒。
And I think that's great.
这个世界不应该只有五家前沿模型提供商。
The world shouldn't be five frontier model providers.
应该有五十万家。
It should be 500,000.
那我们怎么才能做到这一点呢？
And how do we make it so that that's that's that's available?
我觉得与此同时，也有一些智能体在自主运行。
I think at the same time, you've got sort of agents that are operating on their own.
这可能是目前最小的一类。
That's probably the smallest of the categories right now.
我觉得这个会发展起来，变成一个相当大的类别。
I think that that will grow and become a pretty large category.
但现在，这种智能体之间的交易之类的，还不太常见，更多是未来的事情，而不是现在的事情。
But right now, that sort of agent to agent kind of commerce and and things is is is is less like, that that's that's more of a future thing than a present thing.
然后我觉得，越来越多的AI在代表人类去访问和获取信息。
And then I think you are getting more of the, you know, AI acting almost as on on behalf of humans going out and accessing things.
但我觉得，说它们完全像人类一样行事其实不太准确。
But I think it's it's almost you know, it's wrong to say that they're acting exactly like humans do.
毕竟，规模上差别太大了。
I mean, the scale is just dramatically different.
如果我自己买数码相机，没有代理帮忙，我可能会访问五个网站，每个网站可能看十页左右。
If I'm shopping for a digital camera unassisted by an agent, I might visit I mean, if I'm really interested, I might visit five websites, you know, and on every website, maybe there's an hour or 10 pages or something like that.
而我的代理会访问上千个网站，并且把每个网站的所有页面都看一遍。
My agent is gonna visit a thousand websites and visit every page on all of them.
所以，如果没有经济上的限制，这种爬取行为会给系统带来很大的负担。
And so, like, the load that that then puts on this, especially if there's no financial disincentive to just crawl everything, is pretty substantial.
不过，我觉得得权衡一下，这对用户有什么好处，而且代理非常有耐心，会仔细查看所有内容。
Now, I think you have got to balance that against what's the benefit to the user and the fact that agents are infinitely patient, that they will look through everything.
我觉得这对最终用户来说确实很好。
I think that's really good for end users.
但每一个请求背后都有服务器在支撑。
But there's servers behind every one of those requests.
带宽也是要花钱的。
There's bandwidth that has to get paid for.
内容也需要有人去创作。
There's content had to get created.
所以必须要有某种价值交换。
And so there's got to be some exchange of value.
如果AI公司只是索取而不回报任何价值，那就不合理了。
And if the AI companies are just taking without returning some sort of value, then that just doesn't make sense.
所以，这又回到了我们需要解决的问题上。
And so that's, again, what I think we've got to figure out.
对。
Right.
所以我觉得，按照你的观点，我们最终会走向——我记得你说过，机器人流量会增加到一千倍。
So I think that when you talk about this in your view is that we're eventually going to go to, I think you said it's a thousand times more bot traffic
比现在多一千倍。
than new Five years.
五年内，这太疯狂了。
In five years, which is crazy.
好的。
Okay.
首先，
First of all,
对，你大概能感受到，是的。
just And you give sense of how, like Yep.
这有多严重。
How intense this is.
互联网，欧洲互联网，在新冠疫情期间差点完全崩溃。
The Internet, European Internet, came this close to completely collapsing in COVID.
因为在疫情期间，两周内互联网流量翻了一倍。
Because in COVID, over a period of two weeks, internet traffic doubled.
尤其是视频流媒体，带宽需求特别高，增长得特别快。
And it especially doubled for video streaming, which very was high bandwidth.
我记得当时我和Netflix、迪士尼、Akamai、YouTube这些大型流媒体平台的高管们通电话。
And as I think about, I remember being on a phone call with senior leaders at Netflix, Disney, Akamai, YouTube, you know, all the major streaming platforms.
那基本上就是一场僵局，谁也不愿意降低自己视频流的质量，因为他们觉得，用户之所以付费，就是因为有4K视频，我们不会降低画质。
And it was basically like this Mexican standoff where where where nobody wanted to reduce their the quality of their video stream because, you know, they're like, people pay for us because we have, you know, four k video, and we're not gonna reduce it.
但实际情况是，在欧洲，大家都把孩子放在电视前，一大早就开始看流媒体。
But what was happening was everyone was their kid like, in Europe, everyone was putting their kids in front of the TV, you know, streaming first thing in the morning.
不幸的是，这正好和亚洲的时间段重叠，那边的人晚饭后也开始打开视频看。
And that was unfortunately lining up with Asia where everyone was getting, you know, was was turn after dinner was turning on, you know, something to watch.
这导致流量激增，我们几乎要撑不住了，网络容量都快用完了。
And it was just causing so much traffic that we were we were running out of capacity online.
最后，我们不得不降低视频流的分辨率，以确保欧洲互联网能继续运行。
And and eventually, people had to we had to cut their video streaming resolution down in order to make sure the European Internet stayed online.
顺便说一句，如果欧洲互联网当时崩溃了，那亚洲就会是下一个。
And by the way, the European had had fallen over, then Asia would have been next.
美国还能再撑一会儿。
The US would have been okay for a little bit longer.
但从某种程度上说，这些东西的容量都是有限的，所以你必须得能支撑住。
But at some level, like, there's a finite capacity to all this stuff, so you've gotta be able to support it.
那还是在两倍的情况下。
And that was at two x.
到了一千倍，情况就完全不同了。
At a thousand x, it's gonna be completely different.
所以，我们又在花大量时间想办法确保技术能准备好。
So, again, we're spending a bunch of time trying to figure out how do we make sure that the technologies are ready.
比如WordPress，这是目前最流行的内容托管平台。
So, like, WordPress, most popular platform for hosting content that's out there.
它用的是PHP这种编程语言，并不是最高效的。
It's run a programming language called PHP, not the most efficient programming language.
所以我们就说，听着，我们想支持WordPress社区。
And so we're like, listen, we want to support the WordPress community.
我们希望确保WordPress能成功。
We want make sure WordPress is successful.
但如果成本太高，我之前和一家最大的WordPress托管商开会，他们说，你知道吗，托管一个WordPress网站的成本大约是3.17美元。
But if it costs and I was meeting with one of the largest WordPress hosts a little bit ago, and they said, you know, it is it costs us about $3.17 to host a website on WordPress.
然后我们收费12.99美元，这就是他们的商业模式。
And then we charge, like, $12.99 to it, and that's that's what their business is.
我就问，如果流量增加1000倍，会发生什么？
I was like, if traffic went up 1000x, what would happen?
他们说，那托管这个网站的成本就会超过3000美元。
And they're like, well, then it would cost us over $3,000 to host that website.
而且，普通的WordPress用户不会愿意花3000多美元来托管他们的WordPress网站。
And again, the average WordPress user isn't going to be willing to spend over $3,000 to host their WordPress website.
所以我们必须改变一些基础技术。
So we've got to change some of these fundamental technologies.
再说，最好的情况是，用户界面、生态系统以及人们喜欢WordPress的一切都保持不变，但底层技术要变得高效得多，这样才能真正应对未来的规模需求。
And again, think in the best case, it's still the user interface and the ecosystem and everything that people have come to love about WordPress, but with the underlying technologies made much, much, much more efficient so that you can actually, you know, scale to what's coming.
而且那个即将到来的流量规模，简直让人难以想象。
And that's that that that volume of what's coming is just is just again, it's it's almost inconceivable to to to think about.
好的。
Alright.
我们得花点时间聊聊这个，因为真的很有意思。
We have to spend some time talking about this because this is very interesting.
首先，要预测五年内来自机器人的网络流量增加一千倍，我是说，你知道，我们最近已经看到了不小的增长，但一千倍真的是个疯狂的数字。
So first of all, to anticipate a 1,000 x increase in web traffic coming from bots in five years, I mean, like, you know, we've seen a or you've seen quite an increase recently, but in a thousand X is a crazy number.
那么，这一千倍的增长会来自哪里呢？
So what is going to make up that thousand X?
是什么让你相信这种情况会发生？
Like what makes you believe that that's going to be the case?
我们就是看看现在的趋势。
I mean, we just look at the trends right now.
比如五月份，我们的自动化流量就跨过了某个门槛。
I mean, in May, we that the automated traffic crossed.
然后我们大致推算一下这个变化率。
And we kind of extrapolate out what that rate of change is.
然后我们假设，这个指数还会继续增长，因为你知道，AI的渗透率还远远不够。
And then we assume that, again, the exponent is gonna increase on that because it's you know, AI is still way under penetrated with what's there.
但我们必须发明新技术来支持这一切。
But we've gotta invent new technologies in order to support it.
所以，给你一个大概的概念。
So just to give you some some some sense.
想象一下，地球上每个知识工作者都有一个代理，全天候为他们工作，帮他们完成工作。
Let's imagine that just every knowledge worker on Earth had an agent that was working for them twenty four seven, right, helping them do their job.
而且，这听起来很合理。
And I and, again, that's that seems reasonable.
就像，每个知识工作者都会有一个代理在为他们工作。
Like, every knowledge worker is gonna have some agent that's that's working for them.
现在真正有代理的人其实很少。
Very few do today, really.
但随着时间的推移，这会变得合理。
But but over time, like, that becomes becomes reasonable.
就凭这一点，先不提GPU，只看CPU，如果每个代理都跑在传统的容器里，你知道，那甚至不是虚拟机，也不是独立的服务器，只是一个容器，对吧，那么一年内你需要超过当前CPU产量的40倍才能支撑这个规模。
Just with that and and putting GPUs aside, just looking at CPUs, if every one of those agents ran in a traditional container, like, you know, which is which is not even a VM, not even its own server, but just a container, right, you would need more than 40 times the current CPU production production in a calendar year in order to support that level.
而且这还只是一个代理的情况。
And that's with one agent.
我猜大多数知识工作者会有很多代理替他们工作。
I would guess that most knowledge workers are going to have many agents that are going to be working on their behalf.
所以，仅凭现有技术，我们根本没有能力支撑即将到来的需求。
So we just don't using the current technology, we don't have the ability to support what's coming.
所以，我们在Cloudflare花了很多时间思考，好吧，我们从服务器到虚拟机再到容器，是为了提高效率。
And so, again, what we're spending a lot of time at Cloudflare is thinking about, Okay, we went from servers to VMs to containers in order to get more efficient.
但即使是容器，你也得拉入整个操作系统。
But even containers, you've got to pull in an entire operating system.
你得构建整个工具链。
You've got to build all the tool chain.
这些东西其实挺重的。
All this stuff, it's pretty heavyweight.
那为了支持未来的需求，有什么更轻量的方案呢？
So what's even lighter weight in order to support what's coming in?
我们在开发者平台上做了很多工作，这个平台叫Workers，我们大量依赖像isolates这样的技术，这样就能让服务变得非常非常轻量。
And a lot of what we've built with our developer platform, which we call Workers, and leaning heavily on technologies like isolates that allow you to have much, much, much lighter weight services.
我们认为，如果互联网要继续扩展，支持未来那种不可避免的代理流量，就必须采用这类技术。
We think that those are the sorts of things that the internet's going to have to have if it's going to be able to continue to scale to support the level of agent traffic that just is inherent to what I think the future holds.
所以简单来说，这个增长是由代理驱动的。
So just to put a fine point on it, the increase is gonna be agent driven.
对吧？
Right?
那个1000倍的增长
That 1,000 increase
就是由代理驱动的。
is gonna be agent driven.
或者是人类和他们的智能体互动。
Or humans interacting with their agents.
对吧？
Right?
对，没错。
So Right.
但就是会自动化。
But just gonna be automated.
而且，再说一遍，你只要这样想就行——如果你用过ChatGPT，用过Cloud，用过Grock，你随便问它们一个问题，数数看它们访问了多少网站。
And and, again, the way to just think about it is, again, we've if if you've used ChatGPT, if you've used Cloud, if you've used Grock, like, you play with them and you just ask them a question, just count how many websites.
比如，问我们很多
Like, ask us A lot
网站。
of sites.
问题。
Question.
而且这还只是
And it's just
覆盖所有领域。
across everything.
想象一下，现在这大概只有全球1%的知识工作者在经常使用。
Like, now imagine that not in the hands of, you know, probably about 1% of global knowledge workers, like, in terms of using it in a regular basis.
把这个规模扩大到100%的知识工作者。
Just just scale that up to 100% of knowledge workers.
而且不是每天用一两次，而是每项任务都用它。
And instead of it being something that you use maybe once or twice a day, it's something you're using for every task.
很容易就能看出，五年内实现一千倍的增长不仅不是不可能，而且可能还是低估了。
And it's really easy to just see how a thousand x is not in five years is is not only inconceivable, but it might actually be a low estimate.
对。
Yeah.
这太疯狂了。
That is crazy.
所以基本上，去年我们讨论过，对出版商来说，经济上可能不划算，因为如果你花钱请人写一篇文章，然后Anthropic抓取它并放进Claude里，那他们基本上就被排除在价值主张之外了。
So basically, last year, we talked about the economics for publishers might not make sense because if you're paying somebody to write, you know, an article and Anthropic crawls it and drops into Claude, then they sort of get cut out of the value proposition.
那是
That's
对的。
right.
但现在一年过去了，你知道，随着我们看到的代理流量的增长，问题实际上要广泛得多，因为现在那些你可能甚至不需要投入太多来制作内容的网站，如果它们面临这种流量增长，维护成本可能会高得多。
But now a year later, you know, as we've seen this rise in agentic traffic, the problem actually is much, much broader because now website that you might not have even needed to invest a lot into making the content for, if they get faced with this increase of traffic, could cost much, much more to upkeep.
然后，如果你找不到更高效的方法，即使维持它们的经济性也变得可疑了。
And then the economics of, you know, even sustaining them become questionable if you can't find a way to do it more efficiently.
所以我认为真正重要的是，不同的内容创作者、不同的出版商、不同的应用开发者会有不同的偏好。
So I think the thing that's that's really important is that different content creators, different publishers, different app developers are gonna have different preferences that are there.
在Cloudflare，我们相信的是，我们希望让那些希望内容被AI使用的公司尽可能高效，同时为那些不希望内容被AI使用、尤其是没有得到补偿的公司建立系统和激励机制，让它们能够控制这一点。
And in Cloudflare, what we believe is we wanna make it as efficient as possible for the companies that want their content in AI, and we wanna create the systems and incentives for those companies that don't want their content in AI, and especially if they're not compensated for it to be able to control that.
但让我们谈谈大多数情况。
But let's talk about the majority.
大多数公司，大多数创作的内容，其实都希望被AI收录，就像Cloudflare一样。
The majority of companies that are out there, the majority of content that's created, they actually want that content in AI, like Cloudflare.
比如，知识库是我们分享如何更好地使用Cloudflare的一种方式，我们希望确保每个AI系统都能获取并访问它。
Like, knowledge base is a way of us sharing how to use Cloudflare really well, and we wanna make sure that every AI system has it and has access to it.
所以，为此，我们需要想办法让它尽可能高效。
And so, like, for that, what we have to do is figure out how to make it as efficient as possible.
我们如何确保不发送一个笨重的HTML页面，而只发送真正需要的markdown呢？
How do we make sure that we're not delivering a big heavy HTML page but just a markdown that is actually required?
我们如何通过缓存和其他手段，确保系统能尽可能高效地接入AI？
How do we make sure that we can actually get systems into AI as efficiently as possible with caching and other things that are out there?
我们的目标必须是，每次提供页面时，成本降到原来的千分之一。
And our goal has to be how do make every time we serve a page one one thousandth of the cost of what it used to be?
因为只有这样，我们才能领先于那些希望内容被AI收录的公司所面临的需求。
Because that's the only way that we're gonna stay ahead of the demand which is coming down for those companies that want to have their content in AI.
还有另一类公司，它们通常要么靠广告支持，要么靠订阅支持。
There's a different class of companies and they tend to be companies that are, you know, either ad supported or subscription supported.
而在那些情况下，AI，人们会觉得他们的内容被偷走了。
And in those cases, AI, that's where the people are feeling like their their content is being stolen from them.
而在那些情况下，再次强调，对大多数公司来说，但在那些情况下，那些出版商想要有控制权，说，你只有补偿我才能获取我的内容，因为你会损害我的广告收入和其他一切。
And in those cases, again, from the majority of companies, but in those cases, those publishers want to have the controls to say, you can only get my content if you compensate me for it because you're going to hurt me in terms of advertising revenue and everything else.
效率仍然很重要。
The efficiency still matters.
我们仍然希望他们更高效，但我们也想给他们工具，让他们能够说，你知道，我想执行规则，除非你付费，否则你不能拥有我的内容。
We still want them to be much more efficient, but then we also wanna give them the tools to be able to say, you know, I wanna enforce what the rules are where you can't have my content unless you pay for it.
然后我们想让代理尽可能容易地支付内容费用，并能够进行真正的价值交换。
And then we wanna make it as easy as possible for agents to actually pay for that content and be able to have a real exchange of value.
好的。
Okay.
所以有这两类。
So there's these two buckets.
一类是希望自己的内容被爬取的公司，这是大多数，但我们确实会谈到新闻出版商这边。
One is the bucket of companies that want their stuff crawled, which is most of them, but then we do get to the news publisher side.
而且，你知道，这里有个风险，我们在节目里聊过很多次，就是如果机器人只是抓取新闻和信息发布者网站上的内容，然后以聊天机器人的形式呈现出来，那么新闻和信息发布者的激励就会降到零。
And, you know, there is a risk here, and we've talked about this show a lot, that the incentives for news publishers and information publishers will go to zero if the bots just crawl the information they put on their websites and then present it to them in the chatbot format.
我记得你提过，人们现在都不太点击脚注了。
I think you've mentioned that people don't really click the footnotes anymore.
他们就是相信机器人说的话。
They just trust what the bot says.
所以让我再分享一下去年的数据，看看情况如何。
And so let me share again the stats about where things looked last year.
去年你告诉我们，十年前在谷歌上，如果你搜索，谷歌会抓取你的页面两次，然后为这两次抓取带来一次点击。
So last year, you told us that ten years ago on Google, if you were to Google would crawl your page twice and send one click for those two crawls.
六个月前，是六次抓取换来一次点击。
Six months ago, it was six crawls for one click.
去年年中谷歌推出AI概览之后，变成了十八次抓取才换来一次点击。
With once Google released AI overviews mid last year, it was became 18 crawls for one click.
OpenAI有一千五百次调用。
Open AI had 1,500 call calls.
每次点击，它都要抓取那么多次。
Crawls for every click that it sent.
Anthropic 和 Cloud 大概每给出版商带来一次点击，就要抓取六万次。
Ananthropic and Cloud were about 60,000 crawls for every click that it sent to publishers.
那这些数字现在是多少？
Where do those numbers stand today?
对。
Yeah.
基本上，如果你是出版商的话，情况已经恶化了两倍。
Everything has gotten basically assuming you're a publisher from the publisher's perspective, it's gotten twice as bad.
过去一年里，这些数字全都翻了一番。
They just double every one of those those numbers over the last year.
但从用户的角度来看，我觉得你看到的其实很不一样，好像世界变得更好了。
Now from an end user's perspective, I think what you see is actually something quite different, is seems like the world has gotten better.
比如，AI 系统更聪明了。
Like, the AI systems are smarter.
它们看起来反应更好了。
They seem like they're responding better.
它们能直接给你需要的答案，你都不用再去核实。
They're giving you the answers that you need without you having to double check them.
其实这两件事完全不矛盾，因为界面并没有变。
And those two things are actually completely consistent because it's not like the the UI changed.
AI公司的行为方式也没有变。
It's not like the behaviors of the of the AI companies changed.
变的是结果更好了。
What changed is the results got better.
结果越好，点击原始来源的次数就越少。
And as the results got better, click through to the sort of original sources much less.
我觉得这从数据上也能看出来，就是那个数字又大幅下降了。
And that I think is indicated by the fact that you've had, you know, again, a a a very substantial drop in in further drop in that.
这就是趋势。
And that's that's the trend.
随着时间的推移，就连谷歌也宣布，那种十个蓝色链接的时代正在过去，一切都会变得更像一个人工智能界面。
Like over time, even Google has announced that it's sort of the era of 10 blue links is going away and that everything is gonna look much more like an AI interface.
我觉得这就是变化所在。
And and I think that that's the change.
如果真是这样，那么过去三十年支撑互联网的商业模式，也就是广告和订阅模式，将不再能支撑未来三十年的互联网。
And if that's the case, then the business model which has supported the web for the last thirty years, which has been advertising and subscription based, isn't going to be the business model that supports it for the next thirty years.
我们必须找出新的模式。
And we've gotta figure out what that is.
当然，其中一部分会是大型出版商和人工智能公司之间的合作。
And for sure, some of that is gonna be deals between the big publishers and the AI companies.
我们看到这类合作正在大幅增加。
We're seeing those increase substantially.
但我们需要的是对所有人都真正有效的方案。
But we've gotta have something that actually works for everyone.
所以，我们在考虑的一件事就是如何实现真正的微支付，比如当你访问某个网站的信息时，网站可以说，你可以看，但需要支付不到一分钱的费用。
And so, you know, one of the things that we're thinking about is how do you have actually micropayments, where if you're accessing a piece of information that a site can say, listen, you can have this, but it's gonna cost you a fraction of a penny.
至少，这能覆盖提供这些内容的服务器成本。
And at the minimum, that's gonna cover the the infrastructure costs of serving it.
但对于那些真正做新闻或学术研究，或者做其他事情的人来说，也许这还能帮助支持背后的创作者。
But in the case of, you know, people who are doing real journalism or academic work or or other things, maybe it helps cover cost of actually supporting the creator that's behind it as well.
但交易量真的非常惊人。
But it's it's crazy, like, the volume.
这里有一个有趣的技术难题。
Like, here's the interesting technical problem.
全球最大的支付网络Visa，在节假日高峰期每秒处理大约两万笔金融交易。
So Visa, largest payments network in the world, handles at peak during the holidays somewhere around 20,000 financial transactions per second.
Cloudflare每秒处理大约五亿笔互联网交易。
Cloudflare handles about half a billion Internet transactions per second.
这些不是金融交易，所以风险不同。
Those are not financial transactions, so it's different stakes.
但我们认为，其中大约10%到20%的交易，从第一天起就可以通过代理和微支付实现商业化，这意味着如果你要构建这样的系统，你必须建立一个支付基础设施，第一天就能支持大约10亿笔交易，并且能够扩展到每秒超过1亿笔金融交易，才能满足需求。
But we think that somewhere between 110% of those will, day one, be monetizable through agents with a micropayments transaction, which means that if you're gonna build something like this, you've gotta build a payments infrastructure that can day one support somewhere around 10 and then be able to scale to over a 100,000,000 financial transactions per second in order to be able to support what's there.
这些交易会非常非常非常小，但它们仍然是金融交易。
Now these are gonna be really, really, really small transactions, but they're still financial transactions.
你还是得把它们记入账目，处理好这些。
You've still got to account for them and and do that.
这是一个极其有趣且困难的技术问题。
That's an incredibly interesting and hard technical problem.
我们既在寻找能解决这个问题的外部合作伙伴，也在内部研究如何构建这样的系统。
And we're looking for both, you know, external partners that can solve that, but we're also working on how internally we can build that.
这些都是为了支持互联网新商业模式而必须具备的基础设施。
And those are the sorts of things that you have to have in place in order to then support what is a new business model for the internet.
再说一次，我想象不出现在还有什么比这更令人兴奋的问题了。
That's some again, I can't imagine any problem that's more exciting to be working on right now.
对。
Yeah.
所以，基本上一年前，你提出的解决方案或者说实施的系统是，如果你想抓取一个出版商的页面，你就得支付那笔微支付。
So a year ago, basically, the solution that you proposed was or sort of implemented was a system where if you want to crawl a publisher page, you would have to pay that micropayment.
如果你不付钱，就会被屏蔽。
And if you didn't pay it, then you'd be blocked.
嗯，其实不完全是这样。我觉得我们当时没有基础设施来做微支付，现在也还是没有。
Well, think it's not exactly I don't think we had the infrastructure to do and we still don't have the infrastructure to do the micropayments.
我觉得我们当时做的是提供一套工具，让那些通常靠广告或订阅支持的内容创作者能够控制谁可以访问他们的网站。
I think what we and what we put in place was a set of tools that allowed those content creators that were typically ad supported or subscription supported to be able to control who had access to their site.
我们看到那些大型出版商，比如People Inc、康泰纳仕、纽约时报、金融时报、大西洋月刊，他们实际上都用了这些工具来控制AI公司，然后和他们达成协议。
And what we saw from the largest publishers that are out there, you know, the the People Inc, you know, the the Conde Nast, New York Times, you know, the Financial Times, The Atlantic, like, publishers actually went out, used those tools in order to then control the AI companies and then strike deals with them.
我觉得下一步是要确保所有AI公司都遵守同样的规则。
I think the next step now is both how do we make sure that all of the AI companies have to play by the same rules.
而最大的威胁是谷歌，因为谷歌基本上在说，如果你想出现在搜索结果里，你就得让我们用我们的AI功能。
And the the big boogeyman out there is is Google because Google is basically saying, you know, if you wanna be in search, you also have to let us use our AI thing.
他们用一个爬虫做两件事，试图把他们昨天的垄断优势延伸到明天的垄断。
They're using one crawler to do two things, and they're trying to leverage their sort of monopoly that they had yesterday into the monopoly tomorrow.
这给了他们巨大的优势。
It gives them huge advantage.
谷歌，给你个概念，他们抓取的网页量是OpenAI的两倍多，是Anthropic的四倍多，是微软的五倍多。
Google, to give you some sense, these are more than two times as much of the web as OpenAI, more than four times as much as Anthropic, more than five times as much as Microsoft.
他们就是有这种巨大的抓取优势，这会让他们在AI领域逐渐占据上风。
Like, they just have this enormous crawling advantage, which is gonna give them an advantage in AI over time.
我们得想办法要么把其他人拉上来，要么让谷歌遵守同样的规则。
We've gotta figure out how to either bring everybody else up or get Google to play by the same rules.
我觉得过去一年我们在这方面确实取得了一些进展，而且我们正朝着把谷歌和其他公司一视同仁的方向前进。
And I think we've made some real progress on that over the over the over the last year, and and we're headed towards a place where we're gonna treat Google the same as everyone else.
然后我觉得第二件要做的事是，我们确实需要建立基础设施，来支持那些没法自己去谈判的人。
And then and I think the second thing that that we have to do is we actually have to have the infrastructure in place to support the folks who aren't gonna be able to go out and negotiate deals on their own.
他们不是康泰纳仕。
They're they're not Conde Nast.
他们不是People Inc。
They're not People Inc.
他们就是一些小博客。
They're they're, you know, small blogs.
他们就是那种，你知道的，夫妻店。
They're they're, you know, mom and pop shops.
而且我们得做到，即使他们也能有一个价目表，说，听着，你想要我的内容吗？
And and we gotta be able to make it so that even they can essentially have a rate card where they said, listen, you want my content?
这就是你付费的方式，我们可以让这些交易变得容易进行。
Here's the here's the way that you pay, and we can make it easy for those transactions to take place.
但重要的是要记住，这只是针对那些有广告支持和订阅的网站。
But it's important to remember, that's just for the ad support and subscription sites that are out there.
对于绝大多数网站来说，人们希望他们的内容被AI使用，我们也得让这变得容易。
The vast majority of the web, people want their content to be in AI, we've got to make that easy for them as well.
对。
Right.
那你如何看待最近那篇《华尔街日报》的文章？
So then how do you read this Wall Street Journal article that came recently?
它说谷歌是出版商的救命稻草。
It said Google was a lifeline for publishers.
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现在有些人正在考虑切断它。
Now some are thinking of cutting it off.
文章提到，Reddit 已经讨论过关闭像谷歌这样的技术对其内容的访问，用于人工智能用途。
The article talks about how Reddit has discussed shutting off the technology like Google's technologies access to its content for AI use.
文章里还引用了一些你提到过的人的话。
It's also got some quotes from people who you've mentioned.
这些引用来自你提到的那些公司。
Mean, come from companies that you've mentioned.
对吧？
Right?
来自人们的尼尔·沃格尔说，完全关闭并彻底屏蔽它们，百分之百在考虑之中。
Neil vocal from people says turning them off and blocking them entirely is 100% on the table.
《今日美国》的联合首席执行官迈克·里德。
USA Today's co chief executive Mike Mike Reed.
是时候表明立场，说受够了就是受够了。
It's time to take a stand and say enough as is enough.
这篇文章是不是应该这么理解：现在这些出版商已经用上了那种技术，可以阻止AI抓取内容，所以他们现在是在公开场合跟谷歌谈判，告诉谷歌，嘿，听着。
Is this is the right way to read this article that, like, now that these publishers have put into place your technology that might allow them to block the AI crawling, they're now doing the the sort of negotiating in public where they're telling Google, hey, listen.
如果你不给我们想要的条款，我们就直接用Cloudflare的技术把你屏蔽掉。
If you don't give us the terms that we want, we are just gonna use Cloudflare's tech and block you.
嗯，如果谷歌只是另一家AI公司，那它就应该和其他AI公司一样对待。
Well, if Google is just another AI company, then they should be treated like any other AI company.
如果其他所有AI公司都要为内容付费，谷歌也应该一样。
And if every other AI company has to pay for content, so should Google.
谷歌并不特殊，仅仅因为它是过去三十年互联网的商业模式。
Like, Google is not special just because they were, again, the business model of the last thirty years of the Internet.
它不会一直是那个商业模式，至少不会以那种方式。
They're not gonna be the business model, at least not that way.
未来三十年不会是广告。
It's it's not gonna be ads.
也不会是订阅。所以随着这种变化，谷歌也应该随之改变。
It's not gonna be subscriptions for the next thirty And so as that changes, Google should have to change with it.
而且我很欣慰的是，所有出版商都独立地得出了这个结论。
And and I'm encouraged that, again, all of the publishers are are, are coming to that conclusion independently.
我很欣慰他们能用我们的技术来实现这一点。
I'm encouraged that they can then use our technology to do that.
我们在Cloudflare说过，到九月中旬，我们会像对待其他公司一样对待Google——如果你的业务是靠广告或订阅支持的，我们就会限制Google访问你的内容。
And what we have said at at Cloudflare is that by mid September, we're gonna treat Google the same way on if you have an, you know, ads if you're a business that's ad supported or subscription supported, then we're going to restrict Google from being able to access your content.
你随时可以选择退出。
You can always opt out.
你不一定非得……如果你说“不”，比如……
Like, you don't have to like, you you if you if you're like, no.
我喜欢Google。
I love Google.
他们一直对我很好。
They've always been good to me.
他们可以免费访问我的内容。
They can have access to my content for free.
请讲。
Go ahead.
没关系，这样也行。
It's that that's that's fine.
但从九月中旬开始，我们的默认设置是默认屏蔽谷歌。
But the defaults for us starting in mid September are going to be that we are going to block Google by default.
而且我估计，全球一些最大的出版商会纷纷效仿。
And I would imagine that a bunch of the largest publishers in the world are going follow suit.
哇。
Wow.
那这对出版商的搜索排名会有什么影响呢？
And so what does that do to, like, let's say, a publisher's ranking in the search
嗯，我想，我的希望是谷歌最终会回心转意，说我们得为内容付费。
Well, think, again, I think, my hope is that Google is going to come around and say we're gonna have to pay for the content.
因为如果他们拿不到这些内容，那谷歌的产品就会明显变差。
Because if they don't have the content, then then Google's product is is gonna be, you know, significantly worse.
我觉得排名，比如考虑SEO，已经不再重要了。
I I would say that ranking, like thinking about SEO is, like, it's just not relevant anymore.
十个蓝色链接正在消失。
10 blue links are going away.
谷歌已经说过，十个蓝色链接会消失。
Google has said that the 10 blue links are gonna go away.
所以如果你在乎在谷歌上被看到，那没问题，但你也应该在乎在OpenAI上被看到，也应该在乎在Cloud上被看到。
And so if you care about being in Google, that's fine, but you should also care about being in OpenAI and you should care about being in Cloud.
而且，绝大多数内容创作者都希望这样。
And and again, the vast majority of content creators that they want that.
对吧？
Right?
所以我们会尽量让这件事变得简单。
And so that that's we're gonna make that as easy as possible.
但如果你是靠广告或订阅支持的，那这些业务正在消亡。
But if you're ad supported or subscription supported, like, then then you're then those businesses are dying.
你得想办法谈出另一种商业模式。
And you've gotta figure out a way to negotiate a a different business.
而且不能是谷歌享有特殊待遇。
And it can't be that Google gets special treatment.
所以，我再次觉得，整个行业在说的是，旧的SEO时代已经结束了，我们得为未来发明一种新的商业模式。
And so and so I again, I think that what the industry is saying is that the old world of SEO is gone, and we've gotta invent a new business model for what the future looks like.
对。
Yeah.
这是《纽约时报》一篇文章里写的，讲的是我们看到的一些谷歌的情况。
This is from a New York Times article writing about some of what we're seeing with Google.
文章说，用户现在输入的查询词长度是传统搜索中关键词密集型问题的三倍。
It says users are writing queries three times as long as the keyword heavy questions they asked of traditional searches.
人们在AI模式上花的时间比传统谷歌搜索多一到九分钟。
People are spending one to nine more minutes in AI mode than on traditional Google searches.
十月份Growth Memo（一个专注于搜索和营销的通讯）的一项研究发现，大约75%的会话中，用户从未离开AI模式去访问网页。
One October study from Growth Memo, a newsletter focused on search and marketing, found that in about seventy five percent of sessions, users never left AI mode for the web.
所以基本上，我觉得你的意思是，我们正在走向这样一个地震般的时刻，出版商们，你知道，他们一直对谷歌很客气，因为他们还有很多可以失去的。
So basically, what I think you're saying is we're heading towards this kind of seismic moment where publishers, you know, they've played nice with Google because they had still a lot to lose.
如果他们，你知道，有点封锁谷歌，那可能会是他们收入的一大块。
If you know, they sort of blocked them, that could be a big portion of their revenue.
但到了这个时候，他们基本上已经看到自己几乎没什么可失去的了，然而他们仍然在提供很多价值，我们可能在九月看到这个关键时刻，谷歌的这个关键信息来源会消失。
But at this point, they've basically seen like they have very little to lose left and yet they're still delivering a lot of value and we could be seeing in September basically this moment where this key source of information to Google goes away.
对。
Yeah.
而且，你知道，想想这对谷歌来说在某种程度上是多大的威胁。
And it's, you know, and that's think about what a seismic threat that is to Google in some ways.
嗯。
Mhmm.
就像整个页面排名算法就是建立一个链条来归因信息。
Like the whole page rank algorithm is is about building a chain that attributes information.
如果突然之间，这个链条的很大一部分从他们的视野中消失，那实际上会破坏他们进行搜索和在线排名的基础方式。
If all of a sudden a huge portion of that chain just drops out of their visibility, it actually breaks the fundamental way that they can do can do search and they can do ranking online.
所以我觉得他们终于意识到这是一个系统性的威胁，业务正在发生变化。
And so I think that that they are finally recognizing that that is a systemic threat, that the business is changing.
而且我希望谷歌，这个互联网的不可思议的赞助者，过去三十年里为互联网提供的比任何人都多。
And I'm hopeful that Google who's been, you know, this incredible patron to the internet has been, you know, provided more for it for the last thirty years than anyone else.
他们能意识到互联网正在变化，并且应该支持它。
That they recognize that the internet is changing and that they should be supporting it.
再说一次，我认为从谷歌的角度来看，从他们的商业角度来看，作为一个谷歌员工，正确的事情就是如何确保我们是真正支持内容创作者的人，并且以一种有趣的方式去做。
And again, I think actually from Google's perspective, from their business perspective, from the right thing to do as a Googler is how do we make sure that we're the ones who are out there actually supporting content creators and and doing it in in an interesting way.
而且我很惊讶谷歌一直在拖延，而不是积极投入，说我们真的要帮助建设未来，创造未来，并支持未来的内容创作者。
And I and I am surprised that Google has dragged their feet as much as as they have as opposed to leaning in and saying, we're gonna actually help build the future, invent the future, and support content creators in the future.
这又会和以前不一样。
And that's gonna be again different than what existed before.
但再说一次，如果做得好，我认为我们可以创造一个真正的内容创作黄金时代。
But again, done right, I think we could be a place where this is truly a golden age of of content creation online.
好的。
So okay.
我明白了。
So I'm getting it.
所以那篇《华尔街日报》的文章，我一直在想那篇文章到底是怎么回事，突然所有出版商都站出来说这件事，但他们终于有了实际的技术去做，现在他们给谷歌设了一个最后期限。
So that Wall Street Journal I was wondering where that what the story was with that journal article that all of sudden all these publishers were speaking up about this, but they finally have effectively the technology to do it, and now they have a deadline for Google.
如果你说是在七月，那你就给他们两个月的时间。
And if you say it in, let's say, July, you give them two months.
对。
Yeah.
而且他们看到谷歌带来的收入一直在下降，下降，再下降。
And they've seen and they've seen the revenue that Google is is driving go down and down and down.
但这并不意味着AI不会为某些企业带来收入。
Now that again, that doesn't mean that AI doesn't drive revenue for certain businesses.
谷歌一直在发布这些东西，说，你看，AI对电子商务或其他方面有多好。
And Google keeps publishing these things saying, you know, look at how great, you know, AI is for ecommerce or these other things.
那是对的。
And that's right.
绝大多数网站都希望被纳入这些AI系统，我们需要尽可能让它们容易接入。
The vast majority of the web wants to be in these AI systems and we need to make it as easy as possible for them.
如果你的业务靠广告或订阅支撑，这对你来说就是生存威胁。
If you're ad supported or subscription supported, this is an existential threat to your business.
你必须确保有某种东西能撑住局面。
And you've got to make sure that there's there's something that's there.
而且我认为同样重要的是，规则必须公平。
And what I think is also is just right is it needs to be fair.
不能说你向OpenAI和Anthropic收费，却让Google免费获取一切。
So it can't be that you charge OpenAI Anthropic, but Google gets everything for free.
就是说，所有人都得遵守同样的规则。
Like, it's gotta be that everyone plays by the same rules.
我觉得我们已经到了那个临界点，连Google都开始意识到互联网的经济模式在变，媒体创作的经济模式也在变，他们最终也得跟上。
And I think we're at that tipping point where even Google is starting to realize that the the economics of the Internet are changing, the economics of media creation are changing, and that they're gonna have to get there.
想想也挺有意思的，和其他一些AI实验室聊天时，他们会说，这些都不重要，因为最终我们都会实现全民基本收入，人们就靠那个赚钱。
It's actually interesting to think about, like, the conversations with with, like, some of the other AI labs where they're like, well, none of this matters because eventually we're just gonna everyone's gonna have universal basic income and that's how people are gonna get paid.
我就说，好吧，但你这也想得太远了。
And I'm like, okay, but that's you're you're living so far in the future.
咱们还是先回到眼前吧。
Let's kinda work our way back.
在达到那个目标之前，我们可能还得经历一些阶段。
And before we get there, maybe we have some steps that we have to go through, you know, along the way.
所以，再说一次，我是乐观的。
And so, again, I am optimistic.
我现在对媒体公司的信心比一年前强多了。
I'm way more optimistic for media companies today than I was a year ago.
我真的觉得2026年会是媒体和内容领域真正发生转变的一年，到时候内容创作者会得到回报。
And and I and I really think that 2026 is gonna be the year that in the media space, in the content space, that you're gonna see a real shift and and then and then content creators are gonna get paid.
顺便说一句，谷歌在给内容创作者付费方面做得是最好的之一。
Google, by the way, is one of the best at paying content creators.
你看看YouTube就知道了。
You look at YouTube.
为什么内容创作者要把内容发在YouTube上？
Why do content creators publish their content on YouTube?
因为YouTube给内容创作者的报酬比任何人都高。
It's because YouTube like YouTube pays content creators better than anyone else.
他们并不是在所有业务上都反对这种做法。
Like they're they're not they're not against this across their their entire business.
他们在很多地方都知道该怎么做。
They they know how to do this in various places.
我觉得我们只需要让他们明白，像《纽约时报》、《大西洋月刊》、《人物》杂志，还有《Vogue》这些，他们的内容创作者应该得到和YouTube上那些网红一样的报酬。
I think what we've just gotta do is help them understand that, like, the New York Times and the Atlantic and and people and and, you know, Vogue, like, they deserve their content creators deserve to get paid the same way that some, you know, influencer on YouTube does.
那你觉得谷歌会在截止日期前付钱吗？
So you think Google's gonna pay up before this deadline?
我不确定他们会不会在截止日期前付，但我认为他们最终肯定会付。
I don't know if they'll pay up before the deadline, but I think it's inevitable that they'll pay up.
因为再说一次，我觉得他们需要这些内容，而且他们从根本上明白记者、内容创作者和学者也需要吃饭。
Because, again, I think that they they they need the content, and they understand fundamentally that journalists and content creators and academics deserve to eat.
你觉得你的客户里，有多少会真的去屏蔽这些AI爬虫？
How many of your clients, like, do you think will actually go ahead with the blocking of these AI crawlers?
我说的不是你的全部客户，只是那些新闻出版商。
I'm talking about not not your whole client base, but just the news publishers.
就是那些靠广告支持的。
Just the just the folks who are ad supported.
所以，再说一遍，我们已经这么做了。
So, again, we've we've done this.
如果你不是靠广告支持的，这些都不适用于你。
Like, if you're if you're not ad supported, none of this applies to you.
你可以，对。
Like, you can Right.
你可以设置。
You can set.
但如果你是靠广告支持的，从九月中旬开始，我们会默认把这个切换过来。
But if you're ad supported, by default, starting mid September, we're going to, you know, switch this over.
而且我们可以选择退出。
And you can and we can opt out.
但我们预计，绝大多数靠广告或订阅收入的企业都会这么做。
But but we expect that the vast vast majority of people that have ad ad or subscription supported businesses will will do this.
所以会有数百万个网站从谷歌的视野中消失。
So there will be millions of sites that will drop off of Google's radar.
与此同时，我们也会大幅收紧所有针对AI爬虫的其他控制措施。
And at the same time, that we will, very much, tighten up all of the other controls to on on AI crawlers.
所以现在基本上就是在那些线上挂个‘禁止入内’的牌子。
So right now, it's basically put sort of a no trespassing sign in those lines.
就是说，别来拿这些内容。
Say, don't don't come and get this content.
而且大多数人其实都很尊重这个‘禁止入内’的牌子。
And most people are actually pretty good respecting the the no trespassing sign.
从九月中旬开始，我们不只是挂个牌子，而是会安排一个保安在那里，除非你给创作者付费，否则你拿不到这些内容。
Starting in mid September, we actually make it not just a no trespassing sign, but we're actually gonna have basically put a bouncer there saying, unless you're compensating creators, you don't get this content.
数百万个网站可能会从谷歌的排名中消失。
Millions of site could sites could drop out of Google's ranking.
没错。
Correct.
这可是件大事。
That's a big deal.
对。
Mhmm.
要知道，互联网上有很大一部分网站都在用Cloudflare。
I mean, it's a a huge percentage of the Internet uses Cloudflare.
所以，我觉得我们有机会去解决一个根本性的市场问题，那就是谷歌利用昨天的垄断地位来创造明天的垄断。
And so, again, I think we're in a position to help fix what is a a fundamental market problem, where Google is leveraging their monopoly of yesterday in order to generate a monopoly tomorrow.
而且我觉得如果我们不解决这个问题，那还有谁能解决呢？
And I think that if we if if we don't fix that, like, who's going to?
如果我们不解决，就像你说的，内容创作的动力就没了，这对所有人都不好，包括谷歌自己。
And and if we don't fix that, like, as as you said, the incentives for content creation just go away, and and that makes that makes everyone worse off, including Google.
好的。
Okay.
所以接下来会有大事发生。
So big big stuff coming up ahead.
我想休息一下。
I wanna take a break.
我们回来后，会讨论这项新技术变革如何影响小企业，或者如何重塑小企业，这方面我们听到的不多。
When we come back, we're gonna talk about how this might apply or how this new technology shift is going to reshape small businesses, which is not something that we've heard a lot about.
但如果转向代理型网络或超级应用主导的浏览、互动和商务方式，小企业可能面临风险。
But if we go to an agent type of web or a super app dominated, know, way to browse and interact and do commerce, then potentially small businesses are at risk.
所以接下来我们会听到马修对此的看法，广告之后马上回来。
So we're gonna hear Matthew's perspective on that when we come back right after this.
我在报道AI时学到的一件事是，效率不等于工作质量。
One thing I've learned covering AI is that efficiency isn't the same thing as good work.
你可以自动化很多单个任务，但你仍然需要正确的背景和清晰的目标。
You can automate plenty of individual tasks, but you still need the right context and a clear sense of what you're trying to accomplish.
这就是我喜欢Notion的原因。
And that's what I like about Notion.
我用Notion把大型科技、节目策划和资料都放在一个地方，同时还能跟踪编辑工作。
I use Notion to keep big technologies, episode planning, and materials in one place while also tracking editorial work.
把所有东西都连在一起，我就能在一个地方看到自己在做什么，让事情持续推进。
Having everything connected gives me one place to see what I'm working on and keep things moving.
Notion是一个AI工作空间，你的团队知识、项目和智能体都汇聚在一个地方。
Notion is the AI workspace where your team's knowledge, projects, and agents all come together in one place.
使用Notion的团队通过整合工具，能更快地推进工作，减少摩擦和成本，并保持步调一致。
Teams using Notion move faster, cut friction and cost by consolidating tools, and stay aligned.
而且因为AI基于同样的共享上下文工作，它能帮你从工作中获得更多价值，而不会妨碍你的工作。
And because the AI works from that same shared context, it can help you get more out of the work without getting in the way of it.
想了解更多Notion如何支持你的业务，请访问notion.com/bigtech。
Learn more about how Notion can support your business at notion.com/bigtech.
全部小写，notion.com/bigtech，今天就试试Notion吧。
That's all lowercase letters, notion.com/bigtech to try Notion today.
而且你通过我们的链接购买，就是在支持我们的节目。
And when you use our link, you're supporting our show.
我注意到，很多公司在采用AI时，往往是基于他们想象中工作是如何完成的来做决定，而不是基于实际的工作方式。
One thing I've noticed about companies adopting AI is that they're often making decisions based on how they think work gets done, not how it actually happens.
如果没有真实的可见性，很容易把错误的流程自动化。
Without real visibility, it's easy to automate the wrong processes.
这正是Scribe要解决的问题。
That's exactly the problem Scribe was built to solve.
Scribe是一个工作流AI平台，财富500强中有94%的公司都在使用它。
Scribe is a workflow AI platform trusted by 94% of the Fortune 500.
Scribe Optimize让领导者能够看到整个组织中实际的工作方式，展示哪些工作流最耗时，以及哪些地方有改进的机会。
Scribe Optimize gives leaders a view of how work actually happens across their organization, showing which workflows take the most time and where there are opportunities to improve.
Optimize能够自动发现跨业务应用的工作流，即使一个流程从Salesforce开始，在别的地方结束，也能被识别出来。
Optimize automatically discovers workflows across approved business applications even when a process starts in Salesforce and ends somewhere else.
它能识别瓶颈，解释瓶颈出现的原因，并提供建议，同时估算手动文档记录能节省的时间。
It identifies bottlenecks, explains why they're happening, and provides recommendations with estimated time savings with manual documentation.
而且它是私密的。
And it's private.
用户数据默认匿名化，敏感信息会被隐藏，而且不会有任何数据离开你的防火墙。
User data is anonymized by default, Sensitive information is redacted, and nothing leaves your firewall.
想看看优化功能实际效果的话，去 scribe.how/bigtech，提到 big technology 就能享受三十天免费试用，没有风险。
To see optimized in action, head to scribe.how/bigtech and mention big technology for a thirty day risk free trial.
就是 scribe.how/bigtech。
That's scribe.how/bigtech.
欢迎回到 big technology 播客，今天我们请到了 Cloudflare 的首席执行官 Matthew Prince。
And we're back here on big technology podcast with Matthew Prince, the CEO of Cloudflare.
Matthew，我之前听你聊过这个话题，基本上你的观点是，随着我们越来越依赖智能代理，小企业面临一些严重的风险，它们可能会在超级应用的浪潮中被淹没。
So, Matthew, I I've heard you speak about this a little bit, but, basically, your perspective is as we go more agentic, there are some serious risks to small businesses who might just kind of get lost in the super app shuffle.
你之前说得比我刚才描述的要清楚得多。
You've done it much more articulate than the way that I just described it.
那么，你能解释一下，随着这个趋势继续发展，网络变得越来越像机器人而不是人类，小企业面临的风险到底是什么吗？
So can you explain sort of what the stakes are for small businesses, again, as this trend continues to progress and we go to a web that's so much more bot than it is human?
对。
Yeah.
所以我觉得首先，一年前我们讨论和担心的是媒体行业会怎么样。
So I think first of all, a year ago, what we were talking about, what we were worried about was what's going to happen to media.
而且我觉得我们其实做了很多工作，在如何找到一种能支持媒体未来发展的商业模式上取得了真正的进展。
And I think we've actually done a ton of work and made real progress on how do we figure out a business model that's gonna support media going forward.
但在思考这个问题的同时，我们也更广泛地考虑了这会对经济其他方面产生什么影响。
But as we've thought about that, we thought more generally about how is this gonna have other impacts across across the economy.
而且我真的很担心小企业。
And and I really do worry about small businesses.
这并不意味着小企业就注定要完蛋，但我觉得我们必须非常谨慎地理解风险是什么，然后想办法找到解决方案。
Now that doesn't mean small businesses are doomed, but I but I think we have to be extremely deliberate in understanding what the risks are and then trying to figure out, you know, what the solution is.
我努力想实现的世界不是只有五家AI公司。
The world that I'm trying to play for is one where there is not five AI companies.
而是有五十万家。
There's 500,000.
不是只有少数内容创作者，每个人都可以成为内容创作者，发布自己的作品。
There's not, you know, a a tiny number of content creators that everyone can be a content creator and put something out.
而且非常重要的是，我们不要让企业合并成少数几个大巨头，而是让互联网继续发挥它历史上做得非常出色的作用，让新企业能够起步并蓬勃发展。
And that that really importantly, that we don't consolidate businesses into a few big mega corporations, but it still becomes a place where I think the Internet has done historically an incredible good job where new businesses can start up and thrive going going forward.
我认为这就是我们要努力的方向，就是尽可能让更多的小企业存在。
And and I think that's what we have to play for is how do we have as many small businesses as possible.
那么，让我来谈谈我认为的问题所在。
So let me let me walk through what I think is the problem.
要理解这个问题，想象你是一个小企业。
So in order to understand it, think about you're a you're a small business.
假设你正在创业，做一个面向消费者的品牌，也就是直接面向消费者的品牌。
Let's say you're starting something to be a new, you know, b to c, a a DTC, a direct to consumer brand.
我不知道。
I don't know.
你在做，比如，新灯泡、化妆品，或者谁知道是什么东西。
You're making, I don't know, new light bulbs or makeup or who knows what what possibly it is.
那你要怎么做才能接触到顾客呢？
What do you do in order to reach customers?
答案就是，你上Instagram或者Facebook，甚至用Google AdWords搜索，然后开始花钱买把产品展示给消费者的机会。
And the answer is you go on something like Instagram or a Facebook or even a Google AdWords search and you start to buy the ability to get your product in front of consumers.
消费者呢，他们刷着Instagram，看到你那个制作精良的视频——可能是你拉到了风投，或者贷了一笔小企业贷款才做出来的。
And consumers, you know, again, they're scrolling through their Instagram feed and they see your, you know, slickly produced video that, you know, maybe you raised some venture capital or you've got, you know, a small business loan in order to put together.
如果你能触动他们的情感，跟他们产生共鸣，那能做到这点的公司，慢慢就会脱颖而出，越做越好。
And if you touch kind of the emotions and speak to consumers, then the then the companies that do that are actually going to rise and and and thrive over over time.
说实话，我觉得我们很多打交道的小企业，之所以跟他们做生意，要么是因为有情感上的联系，要么就是因为方便。
And I think a lot of if we're really honest, a lot of the small businesses that we do business with, we do business with because we have some either emotional connection to them or because they're convenient.
比如，能帮我们省钱。
Like, they save us money.
我为什么明明知道本地那家小店更贵，还是去那儿买东西？
Why do I shop at the local Bottega even though I know it's more expensive?
就是因为方便。
It's because it's convenient.
而且，我的时间有限。
And, like, I have limited time.
所以我不会特意去找哪里卖鸡蛋最便宜。
And so I'm not gonna, you know, go find whatever the cheapest place is for eggs.
我只会去最方便的地方。
I'm just gonna go to wherever is is most convenient.
这就是人的行为方式。
And that's what humans do.
如果你想想品牌，品牌其实就是人类理解价值和质量的捷径，不用做大量研究。
And if you think about brands, like what a brand is is a shortcut for humans to understand value and quality without having to do a ton of research.
所以，如果我看到一栋楼上有万豪的标志。
So I see a Marriott logo on the side of a building.
我大概就知道进去后会是什么样的体验。
I kinda know what the experience is gonna be when I go in.
如果我看到一栋楼上有沃尔玛的标志。
I see a Walmart logo on the side of building.
我知道进去之后会是什么样的体验。
I know what the experience is gonna be when I when I go into that.
我觉得有趣的是，品牌会不会发生根本性的变化。
What I think is interesting is, like, are gonna change radically.
就是说，不会只是几笔漂亮的油漆，代理商们就会在意。
Like, it's not gonna be a couple, like, swashes of pretty paint that agents are gonna care about.
随着越来越多的商业活动通过代理商完成，品牌的意义将会变得非常不同，因为代理商几乎有无限的耐心，而且没有情感，不会说，哦，你知道，我对万豪酒店有品牌忠诚度，我总是住万豪酒店。
As more and more commerce gets done through agents, what brand means is going to be very different because agents have like they have almost infinite patience and they don't have emotion to sort of say, oh, you know, I I have this brand affinity to Marriott Hotels, I always stay at a Marriott Hotel.
相反，他们愿意做深入的研究，以确定什么是对的。
Instead, they're willing to do really in-depth research in order to figure out what's right.
一开始你可能会想，也许这对小商家有好处。
And at first you might think, well, maybe that's good for the small guy.
但我认为实际上对新进入者来说会非常困难，因为新进入者在网上没有太多信息。
But I think it's actually gonna be really hard for new entrants because new entrants don't have very much information online.
我开一家小企业，想卖我的新灯泡或化妆品品牌。
I launch a small business trying to sell my new light bulb or makeup brand.
而且，如果所有顾客都通过智能代理来购物，那我怎么才能找到第一个客户呢？
And, like, how do I get my first customer if all customers are gonna be agentic in terms of that?
我觉得这真的是一个很有意思也很棘手的问题，因为代理有无限的时间去研究每一个可能的细节。
I think that's a really interesting and hard problem cause the agents have infinite time to research every possible detail.
所以它们会去找网上信息最丰富的地方，而这些地方通常都是那些已经成熟的大公司。
And so they're gonna look for where are the richest sources of information that are online, which are gonna be for the established big companies that are out there.
如果我们不能为新进入者创造一个容易进入市场的环境，那么随着时间的推移，大公司会互相收购，形成大规模的整合，这对最终消费者来说可能看起来没什么问题，因为你可以得到非常个性化的服务，我在乎的是这个。
And if we can't be in a place where new entrants can easily enter the market, then what happens over time is that the big companies will acquire each other, will have massive consolidation, and it actually for the end consumer might seem just fine because you can get hyper specialized, I care.
我只想要特定母鸡下的棕色鸡蛋。
I I only want brown eggs from certain hens.
对吧？
Right?
也许，你知道，泰森食品公司可以非常高效地为我生产这些鸡蛋。
And maybe, you know, Tyson Farms can produce that for me, you know, very efficiently.
但是，我当地的农民怎么才能找到办法真正触达这个市场呢？
But how does my local farmer find a way to actually reach this?
因为他们根本不会有那么深的信息量。
Because they're just not gonna have nearly the depth of information that's out there.
所以我觉得我们需要不断思考的是，在一个商业越来越由智能体来撮合的世界里，人们会通过这种界面来进行交易。
And so what I think is the thing that we have to be continuously thinking about is in a world where we're increasingly having commerce sort of federated by agents and that that's the interface that people are gonna do it.
我们怎么确保一个在市场上没有任何真实信息的新品牌，能够真正存在并发展起来？
How do we make sure that a new brand without any real information in the market can actually be able to exist and thrive?
因为如果做不到这一点，那么智能体商业就会变成一个巨大的整合工具，这会偏向大公司而不是小公司。
Because if that doesn't happen, then agentic commerce becomes this massive tool of consolidation, and that's gonna favor the big companies over the little companies.
而且随着时间的推移，比如，我之前和PayPal的前CEO见过面，他之前负责Intuit的小企业业务，他说他担心未来只会剩下五家公司。
And over time, like, I I was I was meeting with the former CEO of PayPal who before that ran small business at Intuit, and he said, I worry that in the future, there are only five companies.
一家管钱，一家管房地产，一家负责制造，一家负责物流，还有一家是AI公司。
One that holds the money, one that holds the real estate, one that makes things, one that ships things in an AI company.
当然，这显然不会真的发生。
And obviously, that's that's not what's gonna happen.
但某种程度的整合，我觉得是这个趋势的自然结果。
But some level of consolidation is I think the natural trend of this.
我有时候会通过看科幻作品来预见未来，比如回去看看《杰森一家》这部动画片。
And and what I've I've been doing to kind of sometimes you can you can you can sort of see the future by watching kind of science fiction and, like, go back and watch, like, episodes of the Jetsons, the cartoon show.
小时候看的时候，我觉得挺好玩、挺搞笑的。
And it's like, you know, we as a kid, I watched it and I thought, oh, that's kinda fun and funny.
但其实那是一个极其虚无和压抑的世界。
It's an incredibly nihilistic and kind of depressing world.
在《杰森一家》的世界里，只有两家雇主。
There are only two employers in the world of the Jetsons.
基本上就是斯普罗基茨和科格斯韦尔齿轮公司。
It's basically Sprockets and Cogswell's Cogs.
乔治·杰森的工作基本上就是按个按钮，其他所有事情都是机器人干的。
Like, George Jetsons' job is to basically push the button, but the robots do everything else.
乔治·杰森所有的购物都是通过他的机器人女仆罗茜来完成的。
And all of the commerce that George Jetsons does is basically through his helpful maid robot, Rosie.
他就说，去给我买点鸡蛋来。
He's like, go get me eggs.
然后她就去做了，然后回来了。
And she goes off and does it, and it comes back.
乔治看起来非常满意。
And George seems perfectly happy.
但幕后，你觉得罗西会去当地的杂货店买东西吗？
But behind the scenes, like, do you think that Rosie is going and shopping at, like, the local bodega?
当然不会。
Of course not.
她会去任何能获取最多关于鸡蛋质量信息的地方，那肯定是某个大型企业。
She's going to wherever she can get the most information about what the quality of eggs is, and that's gonna be some mega corporation that's out there.
我担心这一点，我觉得我们也需要担心这一点。
I worry about that, and I think we need to worry about that.
再说一次，我对此感到不安，但我认为解决这个问题的第一步是明确挑战是什么，然后思考如何确保新进入者在这个世界中还有机会，在这个世界里，越来越多的商业活动是由那些无限耐心、深入研究、没有情感、代表我们行动的代理完成的。
And, again, I'm not I'm I'm nervous about it, but I think the first way of solving it is actually articulating what the challenge is and then thinking about how can we make sure that new entrants have a shot in a world where more and more commerce is being done by infinitely patient, you know, deeply researched, unemotional agents that are acting on our behalf.
我能提出反对意见吗？
Can I give the counterargument?
当然。
Sure.
而且，品牌其实对大公司更有利，因为它们有钱去砸广告。
And that is that brand is actually something that favors the big companies over the small companies because they have the money to spend.
所以，你可能更适合跟那种你从没听说过的小公司合作。
And And so like you might be much more much better suited to work with like a small business that you've never heard of.
但因为你是个大忙人，没时间去研究它们。
But because you a busy person don't have the time to research them.
你只会说，好吧，行。
You just say, okay, right.
我去Target了。
I'm going to Target.
所以我的意思是，像耐克，而不是……对。
So I mean by Nike as opposed to Yeah.
不管是什么新的……我觉得如果你能做到的话，那可能是对的。
Whatever the new I I think that might be right if you can get that.
但问题是，你怎么做，然后那就是个美好的故事。
But the but the the question is how do you and then and that's that's the happy story.
这就是我们想要达到的。
And that's what we wanna get to.
但问题是，你怎么启动，怎么把信息输入系统？
But the question is how do you boot how do you get the information into the system?
你怎么获得足够的客户评价？
How do you get enough customer reviews?
你怎么获得，然后怎么把它封装起来？
How do you get like, and then how do you encapsulate that?
那么，在电商世界里，品牌到底是什么？
So, what is a brand in the world of ejected commerce?
我觉得不是漂亮的油漆漩涡。
I don't think it's pretty swirls of paint.
我觉得实际上是质量和体验的真实证明。
I think it's actually, like, a true attestation of quality and experience.
所以，我该怎么把亚马逊的星级评分和实际的发货时间结合起来呢？
So like, how do I take Amazon star ratings, but bundle that with what's your actual, like, shipping fulfillment time?
你收到多少退货？
How many returns do you get?
有多少次拒付？
How many chargebacks happen to it?
我该怎么把所有这些信息汇总起来，打包成某种模块，然后让它真正可验证，这样当我的代理看到时，他们就会说，哦，我能看出这是个优质商家，我可以放心交易。
How do I aggregate all that information, package it up into some sort of module, and then make it actually verifiable so that when my agent comes and sees it, they go, Oh, I can see that this is a quality merchant and I'm going to be able to do that.
我觉得你必须有这些，但你还得想想，在我还没有任何声誉之前，我只是想证明我的产品更好，那我到底该怎么成功做到这一点呢？
I think you have to have that, but then you also have to think before I have any reputation, I'm just trying to prove that my product is better, how am I actually going to be able to succeed in doing that?
我觉得这不是不可能，但我想如果放任不管，代理商务会成为一个整合因素。
I don't think it's impossible, but I think that left to its own devices, agentic commerce is gonna be a consolidating factor.
所以我们必须非常刻意地确保给小企业提供能够做到这一点的工具。
And so we have to be extremely deliberate in making sure that we're giving small businesses the tools to be able to do this.
再说一次，我不认为Cloudflare能独自完成这件事。
And again, I don't I think Cloudflare can do this on our own.
我很想参与解决方案，但我花了很多时间和Shopify、PayPal、Visa、Mastercard、American Express、Intuit这些真正服务小企业的公司打交道，讨论我们怎么把工具整合起来，确保他们能在未来成功。
I would love to be part of a solution, but I'm spending a lot of time with, you know, Shopify, you know, PayPal, Visa, Mastercard, American Express, you know, Intuit, the companies that actually deal with these small businesses and saying, how can we bring together the tools in order to make sure that they can succeed in this future?
因为你知道，如果他们只是沿用老一套的SEO打法，那在未来是行不通的。
Because, you know, if they're if they're all just sort of following what the old SEO playbook is, that's not gonna work for the future.
必须得换一种思路。
It's gotta be something else.
而且我觉得，真正最重要的问题之一就是，我们怎么确保这些小企业有工具，能够活在你说的那个乐观的未来里。
And I think it's real one of the most important questions is how do we make sure that these small businesses have the tools to be able to, again, live in in what I think you described as as the optimistic outcome.
我是挺乐观的，但我觉得，要想保持乐观，你也得想想可能会出什么问题，把它讲清楚，然后找出解决办法。
And, I'm optimistic, but I think we should also but in order to be optimistic, you also need to worry about what could go wrong and and articulate it and then figure out what are the solutions to that problem.
好的。
Okay.
那最后一个问题。
So last question for you.
从技术角度来看，这具体是什么样的？
What does that look like from a technical standpoint?
是不是就像一个小企业在ChatGPT的后端有个门户，然后小企业主周末花时间把所有关于他们生意的事情都口述进去？
Is it just like a small business has a portal in like the back end of ChatGPT and just like spends, you know, the small business owner spends their weekends like dictating all the things about their business?
或者会是什么样子，解决方案又是什么
Or what could it look like, and what are the solutions
我们目前讨论过的？
we've discussed so far?
我喜欢，我喜欢，去年我们聊的时候，我对媒体的解决方案还没有什么概念，然后我花了很多时间和媒体、支付公司、AI公司的人聊，说，嘿。
I like, I like, when we talked last year, I didn't really have a sense of what, like, the solution for media is, and I just spent a whole bunch of time talking to media, talking to payments companies, talking to AI companies, saying, hey.
这就是问题所在。
This is the problem.
我们怎么解决？
How do we solve it?
我觉得我们取得了不少进展。
And I think we made a lot of progress.
我希望明年我们再聊的时候，我能给你一个更好的答案，但这只能是因为，听到这个的人说，嘿，我有个想法，然后他们联系我。
My hope is that when we talk next year, I'll have a better answer to your question, but it's only going to be because, you know, people who hear this say say, hey, I had an idea, and they reach out.
对吧？
Right?
或者，你知道，跟Shopify的Toby见个面，他会说，嘿，我们一直在做这个。
Or or, you know, meet with Toby from Shopify, Shopify and he goes like, hey, we've we've been working on this.
你能帮我们推广一下吗？
Can you help distribute it for us?
或者，你知道，美国运通说，嘿，我们一直在跟这些小企业合作。
Or or, you know, American Express says, hey, we've been working with all these small businesses.
这是我们发现有效的方法。
Here's something we found works.
我觉得我们就是在尽量收集信息，我不认为我们能解决这个问题。
Like, I think we're trying to just gather as much information and I don't think we're gonna solve the problem.
但我希望我们能成为解决方案的一部分，因为，如果我们做对了，这真的能帮助更多小企业触达客户，让更好的产品找到最适合它的消费者。
But I I hope that we can be a part of the solution to the problem because, like, we could be in a place done right where this is actually helping more small businesses reach customers and and the better product finding the best possible consumers for that product.
如果做对了，那真是太棒了。
And done right, that that's amazing.
而且顺便说一句，我们接下来要面对的下一个问题就是，人工智能在富人和穷人之间制造了巨大的鸿沟。
And then and then by the way, we get to worry about the next problem, which is that AI is this massive divider between, you know, the rich and the poor.
如果我们不再依赖广告驱动的商业模式——我觉得这很可能——我的意思是，如果你每年花几千美元给你的智能代理，你肯定不希望它受到任何广告的影响。
And if we're not and if we're not in an ad based business model anymore, which I think is likely, I mean, if if you're spending thousands of dollars a year for your agent, you don't want it to be influenced by any ads at all.
你希望它完全诚实。
You want it to be completely honest.
所以我认为，世界上的富裕地区会比贫困地区拥有巨大的优势。
So I think the wealthy parts of the world are gonna have just huge advantages over the poorer parts of the world.
所以这就是我们面临的下一问题。
And so that's that's that's the next problem and and that that we have.
而且，我们又开始思考这个问题了。
And and and, again, we're starting to think about it.
我不认为我们能完全靠自己解决它，但我觉得我们需要讨论这些事情，以确保我们正在构建的未来尽可能接近乌托邦，而不是反乌托邦。
I don't think we can solve it entirely ourselves, but I think we need to talk about these things in order to make sure that the future that we're that we're building is one that, you know, is is as utopian and and and not dystopian as as possible.
对。
Yeah.
嗯，我们希望如此。
Well, we we hope so.
那么，马修，我们已经有了一套不错的流程。
So, Matthew, we got a good routine going.
我们连续两年都在这个时候做这个，所以明年我们得再碰一次头。
We've done we've done this, two years in a row around this time, so we'll have to check-in again next year.
明年这个时候见，我会告诉你小企业的解决方案是什么。
See you back here next year, and I'll you what the solution for small businesses is.
好的。
Okay.
就这么说定了。
It is a deal.
就这么说定了。
It is a deal.
好。
Alright.
非常感谢你的参与，马修。
Thank you so much for joining, Matthew.
很高兴你能来。
Great to have you on.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
好的。
Alright.
感谢大家的收听和观看，我们下期科技大讲堂再见。
Thanks everybody for listening and watching, and we'll see you next time on big technology podcast.
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