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苹果一直避开AI投入大战,现在看来是对的吗?这会不会马上要变了?
Was Apple right all along to stay away from the AI spending race, and is that about to change?
微软和OpenAI在最新协议后到底走到哪一步了?OpenAI的Stargate项目现在在哪?
Microsoft and OpenAI are where exactly after their latest new agreement, and where is OpenAI's Stargate program?
这些内容马上由M来跟大家讲。
That's coming up with M.
G。
G.
西格勒稍后就来。
Siegler right after this.
这周我现场直播参加知识2026大会,ServiceNow在拉斯维加斯举办的年度盛会,企业级AI正从口号走向落地。
This week, I'm live at knowledge twenty twenty six, ServiceNow's annual conference in Las Vegas where enterprise AI moves from promise to production.
我跟ServiceNow的总裁兼首席产品官阿米特·扎韦里聊了聊,他们背后支撑这一切的平台战略,还有那些带领团队的负责人怎么看AI对职场的影响,以及ServiceNow和英伟达合作背后的工程团队,到底要怎么才能把AI真正规模化落地,还有Ultra Beauty怎么在1300家门店部署AI。
I'm sitting down with ServiceNow's president and CPO, Amit Zaveri, on the platform strategy powering it all, the people and technology leaders on what AI means for the workforce, the engineering team behind ServiceNow's NVIDIA partnership, and what it really takes to ship AI at scale, and Ultra Beauty on deploying AI across 1,300 stores.
这些对话你哪儿都听不到,新一期内容这周刚在我的YouTube频道上线。
These are the conversations you won't hear anywhere else, and new episodes are dropping this week on my YouTube page.
保险不是一刀切的,选保险也不该像硬挤进一件根本不合身的衣服。
Insurance isn't one size fits all, and shopping for it shouldn't feel like squeezing into something that just doesn't fit.
所以这么多年来,司机们都很喜欢Progressive的‘你定价格’工具。
That's why drivers have enjoyed Progressive's name your price tool for years.
用这个工具,你告诉他们你愿意花多少钱,他们就给你匹配符合你预算的方案。
With the name your price tool, you tell them what you want to pay, and they show you options that fit your budget.
别再到处找折扣、费劲算保费、瞎改保障项目了。
Enough hunting for discounts, trying to calculate rates, and tinkering with coverages.
不管你是第一次买保险,还是就想找个更适合你和家人的方案。
Maybe you're picking out your very first policy, or maybe you're just looking for something that works better for you and your family.
不管哪种情况,他们都能让你一眼看清楚所有选择。
Either way, they make it simple to see your options.
不用猜,没套路。
No guesswork, no surprises.
想看看买车险原来能这么简单又轻松吗?
Ready to see how easy and fun shopping for car insurance can be?
去 progressive.com 试试他们的‘你定价’工具吧。
Visit progressive.com and give the name your price tool a try.
告别纠结,轻松找到符合你生活方式的保险方案。
Take the stress out of shopping and find coverage that fits your life on your terms.
Progressive 保险公司及其关联公司。
Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates.
价格与保障范围受各州法律限制。
Price and coverage match limited by state law.
欢迎收听《大科技》播客。
Welcome to Big Technology Podcast.
今天是本月第一个星期一,意味着 MG 周一又回来了,我们请来了 M。
It is the first Monday of the month, which means MG Mondays are back, and we're here with M.
G。
G.
西格勒,聊聊科技圈最近都在发生什么。
Siegler to talk about everything going on in the world of tech.
咱们得先捋一捋大方向,聊聊苹果在AI上的投入,是不是马上就要大幅增加资本开支了。
We have a lot to recap in the bigger picture talking about Apple's AI spending, whether it's about to ramp up CapEx expenses.
现在有些迹象表明,可能真要开始了。
There are some signals that it might be.
微软和OpenAI又签了个新协议。
Microsoft and OpenAI have a new new agreement.
好像每周都有新动静,但这次说不定真能推动OpenAI跟更多人合作。
It seems like there's another one every week, but this one might actually be a meaningful step towards letting OpenAI work with everybody else.
当然,还得说说Stargate的最新进展。
And then, of course, we have an update on Stargate.
这玩意儿到底是什么?
What is it?
它真的存在过吗?
Did it actually ever exist?
OpenAI到现在有没有达到预期?还是根本就不会建当初承诺的那些数据中心?
And is OpenAI meeting expectations there or never actually gonna build those data centers that it promised?
今天话题可真不少。
So a lot to talk about today.
我们甚至可能聊聊马斯克和阿尔特曼那档子事,因为那边刚出了新消息。欢迎回来,M。
We might even cover the Musk Altman case because we have some breaking news on that front, and it's great to welcome you back to the show, M.
G。
G.
见到你真好。
Good to see you.
很高兴回来,亚历克斯。
Great to be back, Alex.
每次一有新闻,我们都开玩笑说这消息根本停不下来。
And we joke about this every time that there's, like, an unending stream of news.
可你说巧不巧,库克和特尔努斯交接才刚过去一周半,甚至可能还没到呢,感觉却像好几个月前的事了。
But it feels like the fact that the Cook and Ternus transition happened, what, like, a week and a half ago or something like that, maybe not even.
真是不可思议。
And it feels like it was months ago, which is wild.
你看,新闻更新得这么快,简直让人措手不及。
Like, that's how that's how wild the news is is moving at this pace right now.
是的。
Yeah.
我们现在彻底进入特尔努斯时代了。
It's we're, like, fully into the Ternus era.
这就跟新总统当选一样,一开始你还直呼其名,转眼就得叫他‘候任总统’或者‘总统’了。
It's like when there's a new president-elect and then all of a sudden you go from, like, calling this guy, like, by his name to, like, president-elect or president whatever it is.
刚开始这么叫还挺别扭,得过个几周才慢慢习惯。
And it's like, that feels weird for, like, a couple weeks, and then all of a sudden it just settles in.
我们现在就是这状态了,因为已经能摸到特尔努斯的一些动向了。
And we're we're definitely there because we're getting some indications of where Ternus is going.
为了铺垫一下,我觉得咱们先聊聊你写的那篇关于苹果资本支出的精彩文章。
And to set it up, I think that we should talk about this great piece that you have about Apple's capital expenditures.
当然,对我们的听众和观众来说,大科技公司最近在资本支出上砸钱这事,早就不是什么秘密了。
And of course, to our listeners and viewers, it's no secret that big tech has been spending a lot of money on CapEx.
今年AI领域的资本支出可能达到一万亿美元。
We might see a trillion dollars in AI capex this year.
但你看看苹果,他们的资本支出其实是在下降的。
But you look at Apple, and their capital expenditures are actually going down.
我还没见过谁像你在这篇《苹果的二元押注》里那样,把这种巨大差异讲得这么清楚。
And I don't think I've seen anyone illustrate just how stark the divide is, as well as you've done in this recent piece called Apple's binary bet.
你说苹果今年的资本支出预计在90亿到100亿美元之间?
Apple, did you say, is on track to spend $9.09 to 10,000,000,000 in CapEx this year.
再对比一下Meta,他们刚把预期上调到1450亿美元,很明显,苹果根本没打算玩基础模型这一套。
Compare that with Meta, which just raised its expectation to a 145,000,000,000, and it's clear that Apple just is not in the foundational model game.
我以前觉得这是个短板,但现在说不定反而是优势,我也在重新考虑。
I always thought that this was a liability, but now maybe it's a strength I'm open to it.
你怎么看这种明显的分化?
What do you think about this divergence?
这个季度和这个时候特别有意思,因为四大科技巨头居然都在同一天发布了财报。
So this quarter and this time of year was interesting specifically because four of the technology come of the big tech companies all reported on the exact same day.
对吧?
Right?
没错。
Mhmm.
我觉得是亚马逊、微软、Meta 和谷歌(Alphabet)都在同一天发布了财报。
I think it was Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google, Alphabet, all reported at the same time.
所以有人管这叫‘财报末日’,而苹果偏偏就在第二天发布。
And so it was you know, some people called it earningspocalypse, and Apple was the very next day.
这就像是天时地利凑一块了,特别方便拿苹果和那四家的资本支出做对比。
And so it was a a unique sort of aligning of the stars moment where you could more easily sort of do the comparison of of the CapEx spend.
不过还是有点难比,因为他们财年的时间点不一样。
It's still a little bit tricky because they're on different physical calendars.
微软的财年跟其他几家明显不一样。
Microsoft famously is different from, I think, the rest of them.
但关键是,苹果在那四家之后第二天就发布了,交出了第二财季的数据。
But still, the fact that Apple, who again reported the day after those other four, they came in with their Q two numbers.
作为其中一部分,他们不像其他公司那样单独列出资本支出,因为你提到的,他们没像别人那样大手笔花钱。
And as a part of that, they don't break out CapEx in the way that the others do because they're not spending, as you noted, like, to the extent that the others are.
所以我觉得华尔街也没强求他们必须公布这个数据。
So I don't think that that Wall Street sort of demands it.
不过他们确实让CFO更新了今年上半年的情况,毕竟这又是财年‘2’了。
But they did give the CFO did give an update on the the half year since it's again the '2.
而且,说实话,这个数字跟其他公司的支出比起来,低得离谱。
And, yeah, the number was insanely low compared to obviously what everyone else is spending.
就像你提到的,大概在300亿到400亿之间,呃,不对,是450亿美金。
And it's as you noted, it's basically it was it's 3 to $4.04 maybe 4 and a half trillion sorry, billion.
最终结果可能是,今年的支出还会比去年更低。
And what it ends up being is that it's probably going to come in below what it's even was last year.
然后我就干脆做了件很直接的事——把那些数据整理出来,让Claude帮我回溯过去五年苹果的资本支出,再把不同财年的时间段对齐标准化。
And then I I went in I went ahead and just did the obvious thing, which is porting those numbers and asking, you know, in this case, Claude to go back and look at the past five years of of CapEx spend and chart it out and sort of normalize again for those different fiscal time periods.
这图表挺有意思的,因为很明显,所有人都是从2022年左右开始猛增的。
And it looks the chart is fun because it's basically everyone obviously starting around 2022.
所以很明显,那是在ChatGPT爆火之后不久的事。
So obviously, that was, you know, a little bit after the ChatGPT moment.
从2022年开始,这些公司全都开始大幅加码投入。
Starting in 2022, all of those companies basically started to really ramp up.
亚马逊你比谁都清楚,他们早就领先了,毕竟他们核心业务是送货,仓库、物流这些本来就需要巨额资本支出。
Amazon, as you know better than most, was already ahead because they have huge CapEx spends related to their, you know, core business of obviously delivering goods and they need warehouses and whatnot.
再加上AWS,那也是要砸钱搞基础设施的。
And then they had AWS, of course, which they also needed, you know, CapEx spend for.
但其他公司,包括亚马逊自己,也都真正开始猛追上去。
But the others, including Amazon too, all start really start to ramp up.
唯独苹果,一直稳得不行。
And Apple, it just stays the same.
就一直卡在大概一千亿美金这条线上,纹丝不动。
It's always like in this line that's around 10,000,000,000.
有那么一年,他们从七百亿左右稍微往上蹦了一下。
Sometime one year, they jumped up a little bit from, like, seven.
但那是五年前的事了,从七百亿涨到九百亿,大家都惊呆了。
And then but this was, like, five years ago from, like, seven till nine, and everyone's like, woah.
那会儿到底发生了什么?
What's going on there?
现在回头看,简直太搞笑了,跟现在的局面完全没法比。
And it's like I mean, that's hilarious to look back upon now compared to where things are.
但苹果还是老样子,纹丝不动。
But, again, Apple's in the same place.
今年他们还稍微降了点,可跟你提到的微软一比,差距简直离谱——亚马逊和谷歌现在都预计要花到一千九百亿了。
They're down slightly this year, and it's it's just a wild discrepancy when you compare it to you noted what Microsoft is spending, but Amazon and Google, I think, are both guiding towards a 190,000,000,000 now.
而且这个数字每个季度都在更新。
And and that's this get updated every single quarter.
所以今年他们很可能花掉两千亿美元都不止,微软也紧追不舍。
So they very well could spend well over 200,000,000,000 for what ends up being the year, and Microsoft will be right there.
Meta稍微低一点,但你也知道,它现在股价被狂踩,根本没回报,又没云业务,哪儿都挨打。
Meta is a little bit lower, but Meta, as, you know, as you know, is getting hit left and right as it from a stock perspective because they don't have the obvious returns because they don't have a cloud business.
对吧?
Right?
他们说广告业务表现不错。
They're saying it's doing well for their for their ads business.
数据上看确实不错,但跟其他公司比起来,情况没那么简单。
And certainly their numbers look good, but it's not as straightforward as it is for the other other players, it seems.
他们没有
They don't
Meta 也没有 AI 产品。
have an AI product either, Meta.
没 AI 产品。
No AI product.
刚推出新模型,也就那样吧。
They sort of just rolled out their new models and yeah.
他们到底干了点啥?
And they're What what have they done?
啥也没做。
Nothing.
所以他们根本没做什么。
So They've done nothing.
他们把AI整合到所有产品里了,之前也一直在给广告业务做整合。
So they're baking it into everything, and, they were baking it into their their ads product.
但咱们再说回苹果。
But, again, back to Apple.
就算他们今年赚了一千亿,Meta赚了一千四百亿或一千三百亿,这差距也太大了吧。
Even compared to Meta, like, if they do 10,000,000,000 this year and Meta does a 140 or or a 130, a 140,000,000,000, I mean, that's just an incredible, incredible discrepancy.
不管你对AI的未来怎么看,现在这差距也实在太离谱了。
Regardless of what you think about, you know, the future in AI, it's just like, it's wild how much lower it actually is right now.
是的。
Yeah.
还有你文章里我标出来的那段话,正好能说明这一点。
And you have this paragraph that I highlighted from your piece, that sort of says, that puts this in relief.
你说得对。
You're right.
大家都觉得AI会成为核心科技,每个人都得自己掌控,不然就得看别人脸色。
Everyone thinks AI is going to be a core bit of technology that they each need to control, lest they be beholden to someone else.
这正是微软为什么把OpenAI晾在一边的原因——尽管他们最早就看准了这家初创公司,而它至今仍是行业领头羊。
This is exactly why Microsoft shoved OpenAI aside despite their early extremely prescient bent on the startup that remains the leader in the field.
就算微软已经拥有这家公司25%的股份,还掌握着IP和访问权限,他们现在还是砸了几十亿美金自己搞AI。
Even though Microsoft owns 25% of the company with IP rights and access, they're now spending billions to build out AI on their own.
那咱们就来聊聊这个问题。
So let's tackle this question.
我以前也这么想:既然AI是这么颠覆性的技术,那最好还是自己建模型,别依赖别人。
Because I also was on this path of like, well, if this is such a transformative technology, you would be best to have your own models and not rely on somebody else.
就算你跟谷歌谈了个好条件,比如免费用Gemini——其实根本不可能免费——你还是控制不了,因为你离技术本身隔了一层,想优先推进也难。
And even if you, you know, made a great deal with Google, let's say you got Gemini for free, which you won't, you're gonna pay, you you have less control over it because you're you're you're a step removed from the technology, and it's gonna be much more difficult to prioritize it.
但反过来看,这个说法现在听起来也有道理:如果苹果的判断没错,那他们应该是看明白了,所有这些模型迟早会变成大宗商品,算力也会变得跟水电一样普通。
But the other side of the the other side of this argument is it seems sound now, which is basically that, like, we are seeing this that, you know, if Apple is right, you would say that they've seen that all these models are going to commoditize, the compute will commoditize.
我们在周五的节目里稍微聊过这个。
We talked about this a little bit on the Friday show.
肯定会爆发价格战。
There's gonna be a price war.
苹果完全可以等技术成熟、价格战打响之后再出手。
Apple can just wait until the technology matures, the price war happens, and then implement it.
说不定还能直接做到设备本地运行。
Maybe they can even implement it on device.
你觉得这个说法有几分道理?
How much credence do you give?
如果这真是他们的赌注,听起来也确实像是蒂姆·库克会下的注,你觉得他们有多大可能对?
If that is the bet, and it sounds like that might be the Tim Cook Apple bet, How much credence do you give to this idea that they might be right?
是的。
Yeah.
所以标题才叫‘二选一的赌注’嘛,我觉得这事儿确实有戏。
I mean, hence the title, the binary bet, like and and that's I I think that there is a chance.
对吧?
Right?
我的意思是,短期内这事儿显然更直接——如果真像大家说的那样,毕竟现在AI还处在很早期的阶段,谁都能看出来。
I mean, obviously, I think in the short term, it's a lot more straightforward for that to you know, if that plays out that way because it's so relative everyone believes that it's relatively early in this in the AI game.
所以存在一种可能,苹果有好几条路都能走通,不光是省下训练模型的那笔钱。
And so there's a there's a world in which there's a few avenues where it works out for Apple, and it's not just, you know, the lack of of spend on on training these models.
我的意思是,咱们以前也聊过这个。
I mean, we you know, we've talked about it before.
要是LLM根本不是通向AGI的终极方案呢?
What if LLMs don't end up being the end all be all of AI that gets us to AGI?
对吧?
Right?
要是你根本不需要彻底转向,但得大力投入其他大型基础设施,去构建世界模型,还有未来可能出现的机器人技术,才能真正实现大家心目中的AI终极目标呢?
What if you need to sort of even not fully pivot, but you need to basically then ramp up sort of these other massive infrastructure arrangements in order to build up world models and whatever else comes next down the pike and robotics and everything else in order to get us to what many would consider to be the sort of holy grail of AI.
所以,如果苹果选择不参与这场LLM军备竞赛,也许他们其实挺聪明的——哪怕你目前不认同他们的想法,但至少他们意识到:LLM只是第一步,通往未来AI的路上,还有好多步要走。
And so if even just in not choosing to participate in this LLM build out, maybe Apple's wise in that they're realizing or, you know, looking into, even if you don't necessarily believe in their vision of this to date, that it's not just going to be LLMs, that the LLMs are step one of many steps to get us towards the future of AI.
所以苹果的策略可能是,先退出大语言模型这一轮,但之后会在机器人领域全力投入,对吧?
And so maybe Apple's bet is like they're okay sitting out the LLM part of it, but but then they're going to come in hard on the robotics part of it, right?
就是那种实实在在的物理机器人。
Like the actual physical robots part.
但你可能会说,哎,他们还是得有模型来驱动这些机器人吧?
But then you would say like, okay, but they still need models or something to run on those.
就算他们能拿到独一无二的硬件数据,也还是得自己掌控模型才行。
And so even if they're getting unique data because they have hardware out there in the world, they still need to be in charge of their models.
不过你也可以这么看:他们其实是在赌,能像当初合作谷歌地图那样,找人联手做这件事,这个类比还挺有意思的,对吧?
But you could also say like, yeah, they're making a bet that they can partner on it much like they've done with things like Google Maps, which ends up being an interesting analogy to that, right?
毕竟大家都知道,他们之前不得不跟苹果翻脸,自己另起炉灶,就是因为谷歌开的条件太苛刻,没法继续合作了。
Because famously, of course, they had to go against Apple at one point and and launch their own product because they wouldn't agree to the terms that Google put out there in order to keep that deal going.
这也就是依赖别人的代价,对吧?
And that's the downside, right, of being beholden to someone else.
归根结底,这就是蒂姆·库克的做事哲学。
At the end of the day, and this is the Tim Cook doctrine.
对吧?
Right?
苹果想自己研发技术。
Apple wants to build their own technologies.
他们不想依赖别人。
They don't want to be beholden to anyone else.
这从乔布斯时代就开始了,甚至更早的时候,当Adobe这些软件公司不愿意为Mac和其他早期苹果产品开发软件时,苹果就已经有这个想法了。
This dates to the Jobs days and even, you know, very early iterations of Apple when various software players, Adobe and everyone else, didn't want to make software for the Mac and for other earlier versions of Apple products.
所以苹果决定,最终必须自己掌控这些技术。
And so Apple decided, like, that they needed to ultimately be in charge of that.
这并不是说他们一直这么做。
That's not to say that they always do that.
最典型的反例就是谷歌搜索。
I mean, most famous counter example is Google Search.
对吧?
Right?
苹果当时决定没必要自己搞搜索引擎,结果证明这招真挺聪明,对吧?
Apple decided they didn't need to build a search engine and that's worked out great for them, right?
微软可是砸了上千亿美元才把必应搞起来的。
Microsoft famously has spent billions and billions building up Bing.
可他们到底得到了啥?
And what have they gotten out of it?
现在必应确实能赚钱了,但跟谷歌没法比,我觉得这玩意儿对微软来说也不是非有不可。
I mean, it makes money now, but it's not Google and it's not something that I think is absolutely vital to Microsoft.
那他们花这么多钱、投这么多时间、派这么多工程师,最后到底图个啥?
And so what did they ultimately get out of those billions spent and all that time and all those resources and engineers and whatnot being devoted to that?
所以你觉得,苹果这步棋走对了,靠合作拿了几百亿美金,多划算,对吧?
So I think you would say that Apple made the right bet in that regard by partnering and getting billions of dollars sent to them, right?
就像现在反垄断案曝光的那样,苹果靠让谷歌搜索默认在自家设备上,收了大笔费用。
Famously, as we've seen now play out over the antitrust lawsuits, getting paid by Google to use Google search.
所以苹果可能心里盘算着:这事儿跟谷歌搜索差不多,咱们躺着收钱就行,不用自己操心,也不会有啥后患。
And so maybe Apple in their head is thinking this will play out similarly to the way that Google Search has where, you know, we can basically just ride off of this and we don't need to own this and it won't end up coming to hurt us.
我觉得现在大多数人会觉得,这种赌注风险有点太大了。
I think most people, at least right now, would think that that's a little bit too risky of a bet to make.
再说回我们之前聊过的,他们在资本支出上的投入。
Again, speaking of what we already talked about with what they're spending in the CapEx number.
但你能明白他们为啥至少在尝试——这背后的原因,就是他们为啥愿意这么做。
But you can see why they're at least trying You get back into why they're trying to do this or why they're okay doing this.
对。
Yeah.
我来想想,这事对苹果来说,最好的结果和最糟的结果分别会是什么。
Let me throw out, like, the where this goes really well and where this goes really poorly for Apple.
我觉得最糟的情况是,AI变得太强大了,最后大家干脆都用同一个像《星际迷航》里的那种AI界面,比如OpenAI的设备真能跑起来,助手超级好用,我们查信息就像跟一个全知的AI对话一样,可能就靠耳机和某种语音输入设备,根本不需要屏幕。
The way I could see this going really poorly is that AI becomes so powerful that we just sort of converge on this one sort of, you know, Star Trek computer like AI, interface, where, you know, the OpenAI device really works, the assistant is amazing, we access all information like we would through you know, a screen that is effectively powered by AI and probably some audio only or perceptory devices like headphones and a PIN.
对吧?
Right?
所以在那种世界里,唯一重要的就是你的AI模型有多强,能不能替你搞定所有程序,当你的智能代理。
So, basically, in that world, the only thing that matters is how good your AI model is, how it can operate all the programs and be your agent for you.
苹果根本没机会去租用这项技术,比如要是OpenAI或者谷歌做出了最牛的版本。
And then Apple doesn't really have this opportunity to lease that technology because, let's say, it's OpenAI that's built the best version of this or Google that's built the best version of this.
你就这么干坐着,作为苹果公司。
You're, like, sitting there as Apple.
你最后就成了个过时的硬件厂商,连设备最核心的技术都拿不到。
You're this, like, you'll become a legacy device maker without access to the technology that is the most important thing of any device.
我觉得这对苹果来说真是个实实在在的风险,而且这风险比很多人想象的要远得多。
And I think that's a real risk for Apple, and that's sort of like it's far further away than I think many people anticipated.
很多人本来以为AI设备早就该成熟了,但接下来几周我们节目里肯定要聊,AI设备到底在哪儿?
I think a lot of people expected AI devices to be more farther along here, and we're gonna definitely talk about that on the show in the next couple weeks, like, where are the AI devices?
苹果可能会陷入大麻烦,因为它得低声下气地求OpenAI或者谷歌,才能用上这些设备背后的关键技术。
That is that and and Apple could be in some serious trouble because it'll effectively have to beg OpenAI or Google for the technology that will enable that set of devices experiences.
情况要是真往这方向走,那就糟了。
That that's where it could go poorly.
但对苹果来说,好的一面是——跟过去那些软件上的争斗、被迫自研技术的时刻不一样,现在正有个强大又几乎势均力敌的开源AI开发浪潮。
Where it goes well for Apple is basically, you know, unlike, let's say, the the the, the software battles that it's had in the past or the the times that it's been forced to build its own technology, there is a powerful and almost equal, open source, AI development movement going on right now.
他们肯定能充分利用这一点,但如果你看看那些试图在开源之外搞自有模型的公司,就会发现这根本没我们想的那么简单。
They can definitely take advantage of that, and then if you look at those who have tried to develop proprietary models outside of that open source, world, it actually isn't as simple as we thought it was.
以前我们觉得,只要砸个一千亿美元,就能做出个世界级的模型。
Like, we used to think it was spend, spend a $100,000,000,000 and you have a world class model.
可你仔细想想,亚马逊基础设施是没得说,可他们的Nova模型到现在一点水花都没有。
Well, if you look at if you think about it, Amazon, obviously, they have the infrastructure, but Amazon Nova has gone nowhere.
其实很多人根本不知道亚马逊早就有了自己的基础模型。
Most people don't even realize that Amazon has a foundational model.
谷歌在这方面做得不错。
Google's done a good job of it.
微软跟OpenAI分家之后,一直没搞出来。
Microsoft, after separating from OpenAI, has not been able to do it.
Meta也没搞成。
Meta has not been able to do it.
XAI同样没成功。
XAI has not been able to do it.
所以光砸钱搞自研AI根本没用,苹果要是真聪明,就该认清楚:这场赛跑我们赢不了,不如直接靠授权或者开源方案得了。再说,什么‘全能AI设备’的时刻,根本不会出现。
So it's not just throw money at the problem and build build your own AI and then it's it would be almost the ultimate wise move from Apple to be like, we we are not winning that race, We're just gonna rely on licensing or open source, and we don't think that this, you know, universal AI device moment is going to happen.
对。
Yep.
你觉得这两种情况哪种更可能发生?还是说两者会同时出现?
What do you think is more likely of those two scenarios, or will we see a combination of both?
首先,你刚才说的这点特别对,也很关键——苹果可能只是清醒地意识到:咱们在AI这块儿确实落伍了。
So first first of all, just to hit on the point you just made, because I think it's a good one and an important one, that Apple might just be it might be as simple as Apple recognizing like, look, guys, we're behind in AI.
说实话,要想追上,就得像马斯克那样,疯狂建超大规模数据中心,还得像扎克伯格那样砸钱,根本停不下来。
The reality is, like, in order to try to catch up, we would have to spend like Elon has been doing, right, and building these massive data centers in a hurry and as Zuck has been doing.
这可不是几亿几十亿美金的事,最后得烧几百亿美金。
But it's tens of billions and it's ultimately hundreds of billions of dollars.
你刚才也提到了,我也写过这事儿:以前看马斯克猛推所谓的‘Colossus’数据中心,大家还以为他能突然杀回来,毕竟他建的数据中心训练XAI模型快得离谱。
And as you just noted, I've written about this too, like the throwing the money at it, it seemed like when Elon was ramping up the quote unquote, Colossus data center, that maybe he could just all of a sudden jump back into the race because, you know, he was able to build a data center that that could train an x AI model in in record time and record speed.
但说到底,这招根本没用,完全没起到作用。
Ultimately, though, it didn't work like it just didn't matter.
对吧?
Right?
所以苹果可能也在权衡这种情况——比如Meta的做法,他们 famously 收购了 Scale AI,组建了新团队,想尽快追上,但到现在效果还没出来。
And so Apple might be looking at those that situation, the meta situation, obviously famously acquiring Scale AI and bringing in this new team and trying to get up to speed as fast as possible, and that's sort of not really working yet.
他们可能终于清醒过来了:咱们真搞不定这事。
And they just may be realizing, you know, in self recognition way that, look, we're not going to be able to do this.
咱们钱再多、资源再足,也不是光靠这些就能行的。
We might have all the money, all the resources in the world, but that's not all that matters.
咱们缺的是真正的人才。
We don't have the right talent.
对吧?
Right?
而要搞到这样的人才,就像咱们之前说的,得去收购 Anthropic 这样的公司,那得花几千亿,甚至上万亿美元,根本不可能。
And and what what we would need to do in order to get that would be like, as we've previously talked about, acquiring Anthropic or something wild that would take hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars to potentially do.
所以,他们干脆认了:咱们就是追不上了。
And so, again, they could just recognize, we're just not going to get there.
那花这么多几十亿美金,到底图个啥?
And so what's the point of burning these billions and billions of dollars?
相反,咱们完全可以走另一条路,先别死磕大模型,趁别人跑在前面的时候,借借东风,暗地里悄悄搞自己的东西。
Whereas, again, we can go down the path of making sort of these later bets that it's not just LLMs and that we can sort of ride out the coattails of the others who are doing that well for the time being while we work behind the scenes, of course, and build our own stuff internally, but behind the scenes.
不过回到你刚才的问题,你觉得哪种可能性更大?
But to go back to your question, which one is more likely?
我还是觉得,苹果有很大机会成为AI浪潮的赢家,毕竟iPhone是目前最适合跑模型和AI应用的设备。
I do still think that there is a very good chance that Apple ends up a winner of the AI movement simply because of the iPhone, because it's the best device out there to run models potentially and to run these applications.
这显然也是Meta最担心的事。
And I do think that that's the major fear, obviously, of Meta.
扎克伯格早就公开抱怨过,说他们做任何设备——不管是智能眼镜还是别的什么——都得看苹果的脸色。
Zuckerberg has famously sort of complained, you know, about the fact that they're beholden to Apple with any devices, obviously, smart glasses, but anything else that they wanna do.
对OpenAI来说,这同样是个问题,尤其是等他们推出自己那款 famously 由乔尼·艾维设计的设备时。
And then I think it's a problem, obviously, for OpenAI if and when they come out with their device with famously Johnny I've, you know, designed device.
我觉得真有可能,iPhone会成为AI时代的核心设备,至少Mac系列也跑不掉——Mac Mini和Mac Studio现在根本供不应求,全是因为大家在上面玩AGI相关的各种新花样。
I do think that there's a real scenario in which the iPhone ends up being the key device for AI and at the very least Macs, fallback to Mac computers with obviously the Mac Mini and the Mac Studio, it seems like they can't keep them in stock because of all the fun things that the fun work that people are doing with the AGIENIC capabilities now.
不过话说回来,苹果做的硬件确实最棒。
But anyway, Apple makes the best hardware.
所以就算他们没法一直这么干,只要还能继续,就照样能从中受益。
And so the fact that they can't they can keep doing that, they would still benefit from it.
我觉得这其实是个时间表的问题,对吧?
And I think it's a matter of timetables, right?
关键在于,这会不会是个长达十年的局面——iPhone 依然占主导?
It's a matter of, is this a decade long situation where the iPhone remains?
我之前写特恩斯的时候就提过,完全有可能他整个任期都离不开 iPhone 的影响。
You know, when I framed it in writing about Ternus, like it's very possible that Ternus' entire tenure is still dominated by the iPhone.
等他干满十五年,苹果可能还是那个靠 iPhone 发家的公司,对吧?
Like Apple is still the iPhone company by the time his fifteen years is ending, right?
而你描述的那第一种情况,恰恰相反——比如 OpenAI 的设备、Meta 的设备,甚至苹果自己出的新设备,全都取代了 iPhone 的地位。
And again, the world that you're laying out, that first scenario is sort of the opposite of that where it's like, yeah, OpenAI device, these meta devices, and even potentially some new devices from Apple come in and take over that mantle from the iPhone.
但我还是觉得,iPhone 很可能依然是核心计算中心,甚至会变得更重要。
I still just think the iPhone is probably going to be the central computing hub and maybe even more so.
再说,这也是苹果敢下这种赌注的重要原因之一。
And again, that's a big part of that bet and why Apple maybe can afford to make that that type of bet.
咱们岔开一下,聊点别的。
Quick diversion on this.
如果真是这样,iPhone 成了 AI 的主力设备,那对 OpenAI 来说可不太妙。
I mean, if that is the case, right, that the iPhone becomes the device of record for AI, that seems kind of bearish for OpenAI.
这想法可能有点原始,但你想想,要是设备本地就能跑出跟云端差不多强的 AI 模型,那花一万三千亿美元去建基础设施,真不一定划算。
Now this is like a caveman brain take, but, like, if you can serve AI models that are just as good or almost as good on device, then maybe spending $1,300,000,000,000 on a hard or an infrastructure build out is not the best bet.
这事儿吧,你懂的。
And, I mean, there's the you know?
对。
Yeah.
这说法听着像原始人想法,但现在可不止原始人这么想。
That's that's a that may be the caveman argument, but you're that's not the old that's not only caveman making that argument right now.
对吧?
Right?
当然。
Certainly.
华尔街。
Wall Street.
而且由于OpenAI不是上市公司,大家没法直接投资它,但围绕它的周边投资现在到处都是,人人都在押注它会朝这个方向发展。
And and there's there's bets, tangential bets to OpenAI since you can't bet directly on it since it's not a public company, but there's tangential bets being made left and right right now, you know, in order to to believe that that's sort of the way that it plays out.
关于你提的问题,我再补充几点。
A couple other points to to your your question.
第一,我确实觉得,就像你提到的,其他玩家在前沿领域确实挺吃力的。
One, I do think that there is also the world you talked about how, yeah, the other players are having a hard time at the frontier.
开源这个问题挺有意思的。
The open source question is is interesting.
对吧?
Right?
毕竟我们刚看到DeepSeek发布了新产品。
Because we just saw the new deep sea get launched out there.
对吧?
Right?
你我上次那期播客聊得挺棒的,那会儿还是大模型刚出来的时候,感觉一切都变了。
V four after you and I had a had a had a good podcast a year plus ago when when the deepseq moment, the quote, unquote deepseq moment happened, and it seemed like everything was changed.
可这中间一年多了,到底有什么真正改变的呢?
And, really, what has changed in the intervening time?
当然,过去这一年大家一直在谈开源运动,怎么训练模型、怎么降低成本,这些说法都听烂了。
I mean, certainly, there's been a lot of talk about all of the open source movement and how you build and how you train these models and can you do it for much cheaper all of the talking points over the past year.
但现在DeepSeek出了新版本,居然没什么人讨论,跟上一版的热度完全没法比。
But the fact that DeepSeek now has their new version out, it's gotten very little buzz compared certainly compared to what the last version was.
现在相关论文才开始陆续出来,拿它跟别的模型做对比。
And now the sort of the papers are starting to come out sort of comparing it.
大家都承认,它还是落后于前沿水平。
And it's definitely everyone acknowledges that it's behind still the frontier.
但真正的问题是:差距是不是在拉大?前沿在加速跑,而开源社区是不是追不上了?
But the real question is, is it actually diverging where it feels like the frontier is accelerating faster than where the open source sort of community is at right now?
我觉得这也是一种挺有意思的看待方式。
And I think that that's like sort of an interesting way to look at this as well.
要是开源根本就没按我们想的那样发展呢?
Like, what if it's just not playing out that way that open source is doing it?
不过,反对的观点是,终有一天,前沿模型的提升只会越来越微小。
Now, the counter to that would be we'll get to a point where, yes, like, the the gains just keep getting more incremental on the frontier models.
对吧?
Right?
而开源模型呢,已经够用了。
And open source is is quote unquote good enough.
但谁知道呢?
But who knows?
说起来,这有点像当年iPhone和Android的争论,还有克莱顿·克里斯滕森那些老话题——到底‘够用’就算够用吗?硬件和功能都大众化了,真能行吗?
I mean, this could this in some ways, in an odd way, this might go back to the old iPhone versus Android and Clayton Christensen sort of debates of like, is, you know, good enough good enough like, you know, the commoditized hardware and commoditized sort of features?
它们最后真能算‘够用’吗?
Are they do they end up being good enough?
iPhone 和 Android 的情况是,尽管安卓生态里设备种类多得不得了,iPhone 的利润占比和受欢迎程度却达到了历史最高,各种指标都比以往任何时候还要强。
And with the iPhone versus Android, it's the case where the iPhone is making just as much of profit share and is more popular, you know, in many metrics than it's ever been before, even though we have the proliferation of all these other devices, thanks to the Android ecosystem out there.
所以,也完全可能存在另一种局面。
And so there are worlds in which it doesn't play out that way.
我最后想说的是苹果的另一个重大押注。
The last point I would make is just the notion of Apple's other big bet.
很多人其实都在绕着这个话题打转,我们自己可能也躲着没直说,但你刚才正好点出来了——设备端的模型,可能已经够用到我们未来几乎所有需求了。
And I think a lot of people have been dancing around this and we maybe have danced around this a little bit, and you hit on it just now, is that on device models could be good enough for almost everything that we're gonna we're gonna need.
那到底什么时候,我们才会真正达到这个临界点呢?
And with what point does that do we hit that?
从现在算起,还得等多少年才能到那儿?
And how many years out do we get from there?
因为如果真成了这样,再加上苹果硬件又是最好的,那整个讨论的基调就完全不一样了,我觉得。
Because if that ends up being the case, and again, has the best hardware, that makes it a really, really different sort of conversation, I feel like.
对。
Yeah.
天哪。
Oh my goodness.
苹果芯片和英伟达芯片之间的较量肯定会非常精彩。
The Apple chip versus the NVIDIA chip will be a very interesting battle.
终极对决。
The ultimate battle.
你能想象要是真回到那种局面吗?
Like, could you imagine if it goes back to that?
这两家公司一向不对付,历史上就挺掐的。
Like, those two companies famously have a sort of a a history where they don't like each other.
苹果以前根本不让英伟达的显卡在自家系统上跑游戏,而且在训练大模型时,苹果也是少数几家不疯狂采购英伟达显卡的公司。
They wouldn't let NVIDIA GPUs for gaming run-in in Apple systems, and Apple famously is the one company not buying up as many NVIDIA GPUs for these training runs left and right as much as possible.
你懂的。
You know?
就算他们真用,也多半是用TPU之类的其他芯片。
And even when they're doing them, they were using potentially TPUs and whatnot.
不过话说回来,如果真演变成这样,现在到处都在传,NVIDIA显然打算进军CPU领域——他们其实早就开始做推理端的芯片了,未来AI需要的方方面面都得靠这个。
But anyway, yeah, if that becomes that that ultimate thing and and there's lots of talk, right, that that NVIDIA wants to potentially obviously build CPUs, which they've been doing for the the flip side for inference and everything else that they're gonna be needed for in the future of AI.
更有人说,他们甚至可能要自己搞整机,瞄准那些消费级市场,毕竟现在他们虽然在AI后端是全球老大,但前端品牌存在感太弱了。
But there's even talk that they would build their own, you know, potential actual PC systems, right, to go after sort of more of those markets and presumably go after more of the hardware front end because right now, obviously, they're they're the biggest company in the world and a massive player on the backside of all this AI work that's being done.
可要是真想重新当个前台品牌,他们会不会真下场,用自己的技术去造电脑呢?
But if they really wanna be a front facing company and brand again, like, do they go for it and start to build their own machines, you know, with with their capabilities?
对。
Yeah.
那可有意思了。
That'll be interesting.
行吧。
Alright.
我先抛个结论:你觉得苹果现在这么少花资本开支,真是在下对注吗?
So let me just deliver the the punch line to the beginning of our conversation here, which is, you know, is is Apple making the the right bet on, you know, with with spending much less on CapEx?
新CEO上任了,已经有迹象表明,他觉得咱们以前在AI上的投入实在太保守了。
Obviously, new CEO coming in, and we have signals that he believes in some part that they've been going too light on the AI spending.
他刚上任的时候,约翰·特努斯第一句话就说,现在是做产品最激动人心的时刻,还把人工智能放在了最前面。
First, when he came in, when John Ternus came in, first thing he said was this is the most exciting time to develop products, highlighted artificial intelligence right at the top.
上周他在苹果的财报电话会上透露,苹果在财务策略上可能会和库克时代不太一样了。
Then last week, he was on Apple's earnings call and signaled that Apple would take a somewhat different approach financially than it did under Cook.
我这儿念一段马克·古尔曼在彭博社写的报道,内容有点偏财务。
I'm just gonna read a little bit from Bloomberg, an article by Mark Gurman about this, and it's a little bit financial.
我会尽量用大白话讲清楚,然后咱们再聊聊这背后意味着什么。
I'll try to go go through it at a high level, and then we can talk about what it means.
古尔曼写道:根据特努斯在财报会上的表态,未来苹果的股票回购或分红增幅可能会放缓,这可能会改变苹果长期以来对投资者的承诺。
Gurman writes, Underturnus buybacks and or dividend hikes could potentially slow in size or frequency based off of the conversation that he had on the earnings call, and that may alter Apple's long standing pitch to investors.
以前我们是赚大钱、全还给你们,现在嘛,不一定要这么干了。
We'll generate enormous cash flow and return it to you.
Evercore的分析师阿米特·达哈尼说。
Now they have the optionality to do it less, Evercore analyst Amit Dharani said.
换句话说,特努斯现在可以拿这笔钱去干一票大的收购,或者加大研发投入。
In other words, Ternus could spring for a blockbuster acquisition or dial up spending on R and D.
他可能会大力扩展公司的AI基础设施,这一点,硅谷的同行们正在疯狂推进。
He could expand the company's AI infrastructure, something its Silicon Valley peers are doing at a furious pace.
我觉得这些事儿都不是偶然发生的。
I I I think that these things don't happen by accident.
我不觉得他是那种随便给自己留个后路的人。
I don't think it's like, let me, you know, create the option for myself.
这事儿咱们心里都清楚。
Obviously, we know.
坦白说,特尔努斯早就开始准备接任CEO了,少说也有一年多了。
Ternus has been preparing to take over the CEO position for probably a year or longer.
他肯定早就琢磨过这些事。
He had to have been thinking about this.
这算是他上任后发出的第一个重要财务信号。
This is one of his first major financial signals.
看来AI方面的投入,马上就要来了。
Maybe the AI spending is coming.
至少我觉得,这算是一种选择权。
At the very least, I feel like this is optionality.
对吧?
Right?
这让他能放手大干,花的钱比苹果以往任何一次都要多得多。
Like, this gives him the ability to basically go out and spend far more to a far greater extent than Apple has to date.
因为到这一步,确实是个关键节点。
Because to that that point, like, this is a big moment.
苹果一直有个著名政策,就是尽量保持现金平衡,你也提到了。
Apple has a famous policy in place to try to be, you know, cash neutral, as you're noting.
但他们其实没真做到,毕竟赚太多钱了,账上还是堆着一大笔现金。
They don't do they don't actually do that because they generate so much so much profit that they still hold a bunch of money on their balance sheet.
不过你记得吧,乔布斯那会儿,苹果的现金多到离谱,远超行业其他公司,因为赚得太多,全攒着,既不搞大并购,也不回购股票。
But remember, there was a time, I guess, the in the Steve Jobs days, where their cash balance was ballooning to the point where it was just way out of line, out of band versus what everyone else had in the industry because they were generating so much profit and holding it all and not but not doing major M and A and not doing stock buybacks.
蒂姆·库克这才改了这做法。
Tim Cook changed that.
我觉得这正是他掌舵后股价表现这么好的关键原因,苹果现在市值都到四万亿美元了,因为他搞分红,也大力回购股票。
And I do think that that's a big part of why the stock has done so well right under him and it's become a $4,000,000,000,000 company because he does dividends and he does stock buybacks.
他们现在其实是在释放一个信号——未必会彻底停掉,我觉得那些已经承诺的回购计划应该还会继续,至少在可预见的未来会这样。
And basically, they're signaling now, not necessarily that they're going to stop it entirely, and and I think that there's still some mechanisms in place to do some of the buybacks that have been promised already, and so they're going to continue that at least for the somewhat foreseeable future.
但他们在明确地放风,这可不是含糊其辞,是直接说出来的。
But they are sending a signal, and it's an explicit signal.
要不是真的不想再坚持那个‘现金中性’的政策了,他们根本不会说出来。
They wouldn't say it if it wasn't something there that they might not They don't have that policy anymore that they want to remain sort of that cash neutral position.
现在他们可能又打算开始囤现金了。
And instead, they could start hoarding cash again.
这钱能干不少事,就像你提到的,要么搞并购,要么加大研发投入。
And that could be used for a few things, as you noted, either they do M and A, they start to do some M and A, they start to do more R and D.
顺便说一句,在那个‘二元押注’的部分,我注意到上个季度他们的研发支出创了新高,这说明他们真在砸钱布局未来技术。
And by the way, in the binary bet piece, I note, like, they did hit a record in R and D spend last quarter, and that signals something interesting that they're spending and looking into more and more future technologies.
与此同时,他们所有的竞争对手也都在加大投入。
At the same time, all of their peer group is also spending more.
大家当然都盯着资本支出,毕竟那数字大得多。
Everyone's, of course, focused on the CapEx because the number is much, much greater.
但他们都在创纪录地投入研发,苹果也在其中。
But still, they're all spending record amounts on R and D, and Apple is in that group too.
他们花的钱可是破了纪录。
They're spending records amount.
这或许能帮他们进一步加速进程。
And this might help them to further accelerate that.
他们也可能拿这笔钱还掉一些债务,我想。
They could also sort of retire some debt, I guess.
还有些更专业的财务原因,让他们有动机这么做。
There's other more wonky sort of financial reasons why they might want to do this.
但对我来说,这明显是个信号。
But to me, again, I think it's sending a signal.
我觉得他们现在这么做,是有很明确的原因的——虽然特伦斯已经上任了,但公司还是蒂姆·库克在掌舵。
I think they're doing it now for a very good reason, which is that even though Ternus has now been announced in place, it's still Tim Cook running the company.
这样一来,他们就有点缓冲空间了。
And so this sort of gives them a little bit of cover.
等特恩斯秋天正式接班时,他第一件事不用急着把苹果的资产负债表掀翻,吓坏华尔街。
So it's like when Ternus actually takes over in in the fall, he's not his first order of business isn't to to blow up Apple's Apple's capital sheet and and freak out Wall Street.
看吧,我们早就给大家打了预防针。
It's like, look, guys, we're guiding towards this.
将来某个时候,我们可能真得加大投入。
Like, there might be a time in the future where we're going to need to spend more.
说到你刚才的问题,我觉得可以合理推测,他们接下来也会增加资本支出。
And again, to your exact question, I think that it's a reasonable assumption to make that they're going to start spending more on CapEx too.
就算他们不自己训练模型,不搞LLM推理这些事,也得做其他相关工作。
Even if they're not going to train models, they're not going to train an LLM inference and and doing other things that you need to do.
我们早就知道,他们在背后悄悄干着活呢。
We already know that they're doing work behind the scenes.
还有个关键点,别忘了约翰尼·苏鲁吉——苹果的芯片负责人,他可是公司里举足轻重的人物。就在宣布新CEO的同一天,他们也宣布他升职了,拿到了新的高管头衔。
And another key part of this, remember, of this entire announcement was Johnny Sourouji, who's Apple's chip's chief and obviously a very vital part of company, given that they announced on the same day that they're announcing a new CEO, they announced that he has a new title, a new C suite level title.
我觉得这两件事肯定不是孤立的。
And I don't think that those two things are unrelated.
而且我觉得,他正在做的这件事——可以说是苹果过去十年最重要的一件事,就是他们的自研芯片。
And I do think that the fact that he's working on, you know, arguably the most important thing that Apple has done over the past decade, which is their silicon.
如果真像外界传言的那样,他们正在研发自己的芯片,能做推理、处理更多AI任务,那肯定得加大资本支出才行。
And if they're also, as has been sort of whispered about and rumored, if they're working on their own chips and able to do inference and be able to do more AI workloads, they need CapEx in order to do that.
所以,所有这些事情很可能都是有关联的,我觉得这明显是在释放一个信号:接下来肯定会加大投入。
And so, again, all these things potentially are related, and I think this is signaling that more spend is coming for sure.
是的。
Yeah.
我同意。
I agree.
我觉得在特尔努斯上任的第一年,苹果会搞几笔大收购,给他定个调子,表明一切都要不一样了,我觉得这挺好。
I think Apple's gonna make some big acquisitions in Ternus' first year for him to set the tone that it's gonna be different, and I think that's good.
我支持这个做法。
I'm I'm in favor of that.
展开剩余字幕(还有 332 条)
在结束之前,再说两件苹果的事。
Two more Apple things before we go.
首先吧,你看日历,现在咱们可能觉得苹果这步棋走对了,但说实话,他们的AI产品简直一塌糊涂,啥都没有。
First of all, you know, looking at the calendar, we are gonna you know, right now, we're saying maybe Apple is making the right move, but even still they have a terrible AI product, like nothing.
一个月后咱们就能知道,这一切所谓的‘明智的克制’,到底是真聪明,还是纯粹瞎搞,根本不懂怎么造这类产品——毕竟新系列下个月就要来了。
We're gonna find out in a month about whether all this, like, you know, sort of what would you call it?
他们是不是傻,根本不会做这种产品?
Wise restraint is actually wise or whether they're just being stupid and they have no idea how to build these products because new series supposed to come next month.
是的。
Yeah.
我真没想到,这事居然这么快就到这一步了。
And I mean, I think it's wild that it's that quick already that it's happening.
不过话说回来,要是你信马克·古尔曼的爆料,那其实他们已经推迟好几次了,本来都打算先推个测试版出来。
At the same time, like, if you believe the the reporting by, you know, Mark Gurman, it's basically like they've still delayed it a couple of times, right, from when it was gonna roll out in potentially beta form to get it out there early.
也许他们就是想憋个大的,等到WWDC发布会那天,突然甩出来,让大家惊呼:‘天啊,他们终于做成了!’
And, you know, maybe it's just wanting to to keep it back in order to make a big big wow moment at at WWDC when they do actually launch these things and unveil them to the world like, look, we finally did it.
Siri 终于修好了,这事儿真该好好吹一波。
Siri is finally fixed, and we can make a big to do of it.
但愿真是这样吧。
You hope that's the case.
也有可能恰恰相反,他们还在头疼怎么整合,各种边缘情况搞不定,对吧?
It's also possible that it's the opposite of that, that they're having still some troubles integrating it and the edge cases, right?
就像你说的,亚马逊当年做 Alexa,谷歌从 Google Assistant 换到 Bard 再到 Gemini,一路磕磕绊绊;苹果现在从老 Siri 往新系统过渡,估计也够呛——虽然名字可能还叫 Siri。
Because much like Amazon, as you brought up with sort of, you know, their own work and Alexa and whatnot on AI dating back to the Siri days, the earlier Siri days too, They've had a hell of a time and Google has as well sort of transitioning from their original models, Google Assistant to Gemini, to Bard and then to Gemini, and then Alexa to Alexa Plus, and Apple Siri to I assume it's still gonna be called Siri.
也许不该再叫 Siri 了,但说白了,苹果现在面临的难题,跟别人当年一模一样,转型哪有那么容易。
Maybe it shouldn't still be called Siri, but it's still like, you know, there's a world in which Apple is having a hard time sort of making that transition just as the others have before them.
我觉得 Alexa Plus 真是这几个里面最出彩的,我得说实话。
I think Alexa Plus is the best of the bunch, I have to say.
我真的很喜欢用它。
I really I really like using it.
确实不错,至少比以前强多了。
It is good, you know, relative, I think, to where it was at.
这确实是个挺棒的对话型AI。
It's it's a good sort of conversational AI.
不过你会用它来做亚马逊希望用户用它做的那些事吗?
Do you use it though for any of the things that Amazon, you know, hopes to use it for?
比如,你会用它买东西吗?
Do you shop with it, for example?
偶尔吧。
Sometimes.
我以前是用老版Alexa买东西,但我真正用它的地方,是解决家里人的争执。
But I was shopping with old Alexa, but what I really use it for is to settle arguments in the house.
比如我和我老婆吵架的时候——我之前好像说过,我是美国人,她是欧洲人,我们对哪个系统更好各有各的坚持,一吵起来就直接喊Ziggy,对,我们给它改名叫Ziggy了,还有别的名字,反正就喊它出来。
Like, when we're debating things, like my wife and I, I think I've said this before, but I'm American, she's European, we have strong opinions on which system is better, so we'll just sort of get into a debate and then all of a sudden we'll just summon We could we changed its name to Ziggy like it has some other names, so we'll summon Ziggy and Cute.
这么一来,我们俩的争执就立马解决了。
That tends to settle the settle the argument for us.
这其实正好印证了之前说的iPhone那个点。
And, I mean, that sort of speaks directly to what, you know, the iPhone point earlier.
听起来你用它主要是因为家里到处都是设备。
It's like it sounds like you use it basically because you have devices around your house.
对吧?
Right?
它就是个
And it's a It's
我们身边的东西。
with us.
它确实是个不错的对话型AI。
It's a good conversational AI.
你可以用它代替掏出手机打开ChatGPT或者Claude之类的。
And so you can use it instead of taking out your phone and and bringing up ChatGPT or Claude or whatnot.
我觉得这又把问题抛回苹果那边了——到底什么才是最好的AI设备?
And I think that that's again a case in in Apple's court, like, what's the best AI device?
就是你随身带着的那个。
It's the one you have on you.
没错。
Exactly.
就是你手里的那个。
The one in your hand
不是那个遥不可及的理论产品。
or It's not the one that it's not the theoretical one out there.
而是几十亿人已经拥有的那个。
It's the one that billions of people already have.
对极了。
That's right.
好的。
Okay.
最后一件事,之后我们先休息一下,再聊微软和OpenAI。
Last thing, and then we're gonna go to break and then talk about Microsoft and OpenAI.
我觉得咱们可以先庆祝一下——当Ternus这个消息刚出来的时候,我们都觉得这事不简单,可外面却有人说,别想了,库克还会继续干下去。
I think we can spike the football for a moment and you in particular that when this Ternus talk was starting to surface, I think we both felt strongly that there was something there, and there were voices out there that said, nope, Tim Cook is gonna stay for a while.
结果还真就发生了。
And and here it happened.
过渡已经在进行了。
The transition is underway.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,我们之前聊过这事,我觉得除了新闻报道本身,金融时报的报道其实做得特别到位,他们抓得很准,我觉得确实如此。
I mean, again, I we had talked about this, and I feel like beyond sort of the reporting, I think Financial Times, right, ends up looking really good in the way that they framed it, and I think that, you know, that was accurate.
而且他们之所以准确,是有原因的。
And I think it was accurate for a reason.
我觉得肯定是有人想让外界知道,库克当时真的在认真考虑这个决定。
I think that there was, you know, that someone wanted it to be known that Cook was very seriously weighing this decision.
也许这事儿还没到板上钉钉的地步,谁也不敢打包票。
And maybe it wasn't a slam dunk, you know, that it was gonna happen for sure.
他可能想趁假期好好想想,确保自己做出的决定不像当年伊格尔那样——他第一次交班给鲍勃·艾格,结果碰上疫情,整个局面彻底崩了,迪士尼搞得一团糟。库克大概也想留点余地,看看情况到底会怎样。
Maybe he wanted to take the holiday time to think it through and and make sure that, you know, like, unlike Bob Iger in the past that when he handed off that first go around to Bob Jaypek and then COVID hit and and the world blew up and and it ended up being a really bad situation for Disney, you know, maybe Cook also wanted some optionality and just to see, you know, what what it was.
但我们之前聊过,这事肯定有苗头,毕竟那时候对他来说简直是天时地利——财报即将公布,而第一季度的结果也确实如预期那样。
But we had talked about it seemed like it would there was some smoke to you know, some fire behind that smoke because it just was a perfect time for for him to do it if he chose to do it because of the way that the earnings were gonna play out, which they did in q one.
苹果创下了有史以来最高的营收纪录。
Record all time record earnings for Apple.
再加上股价的反应、公司市值现在都快四万亿美元了,还有四月一日苹果迎来五十周年纪念日,这些都凑在一块儿。
And because of the way that the stock was likely to react and it's bet $4,000,000,000,000 now, and because of Apple's fiftieth anniversary in April 1.
库克显然很看重这个日子。
And, you know, Cook, obviously, that was important to him.
他表现得再清楚不过了。
He made it very clear.
所以所有这些因素都刚好对上了。
And so all of these things came into place.
我觉得有一件事被大家忽略了,我也没怎么看到媒体报道,但在我心里,这其实是个重要信号:当苹果宣布亚瑟·莱文森和罗纳德·休格能继续留任,哪怕过了70岁这个传统退休年龄,再加上埃利森当董事会主席,这在我这种搞风投、懂公司治理的人看来,明显是冲着什么大事在等。
The one thing that I think was downplayed for the most part that I didn't read about too much, but I think was in my mind at least a big indicator of this was the the sort of board machinations of and maybe this is just because this is sort of, you know, my my world of of investing in VC and and whatnot and board dynamics where when the Apple announced that Arthur Levinson and Ronald Sugar would be able to stay on board after their 70 birthdays, which is the historic step down time for Apple board members, and the fact that Elevensen was the board chair, that to me indicated that it was very likely that they were waiting on something.
对吧?
Right?
他们不想在蒂姆·库克马上就要接任董事长的情况下,再另选一个人当主席。
They didn't want to appoint a new board chair if Tim Cook was going to come in within a very short amount of time and become that board chair.
我觉得,某种程度上,事情可能就这么简单——他们干脆延长了那些人的任期,让他们留任,一方面是为了公司能平稳过渡。
And I think that that's, you know, in some ways, it might be as simple as that, that they basically extended, you know, the the contract of those folks and allowed them to stay on, both because they needed a good transition, you know, for the overall company.
过去几个月里,除了库克这件事,公司高层变动其实一直没停过。
There's been a lot of turnover as has been clear over the past many months beyond just the cook stuff.
高管换人频繁,董事会里也有变动。
There's a lot of executive turnover and even some on the board.
所以他们需要稳得住的人,尤其是在CEO交接这种关键时候,更得靠得住。
And so they wanted steady hands, but you also want steady hands when you're doing a CEO transition.
我觉得,从这些迹象里能读出很多东西,后来也确实证明了这一点。
And I think, again, you could read a lot into that tea leaves wise, and I think that that ended up being the case.
好的。
Alright.
我们休息一下。
Let's go to break.
咱们来聊聊微软和OpenAI取消AGI条款的事,还有微软允许OpenAI跟任何云服务商合作——这事儿其实挺重磅的,但我觉得在OpenAI的新闻里被低估了。
We're gonna talk about Microsoft and OpenAI doing away with the AGI clause and Microsoft allowing OpenAI to work with any cloud provider, which is fairly big news that I don't think has been played up enough as far as the OpenAI story goes.
当然,最近新闻太多,想全跟上不容易,不过等会儿回来,我们会好好讲讲这件事,顺便更新一下Stargate基础设施的最新进展。
Of course, there's been a lot of stuff in the news, so hard to follow everything, but we'll try to cover this story and also give you the latest on the Stargate infrastructure build out when we come back right after this.
你瞧。
Look.
如果你现在有孩子在上学,那这场景你肯定熟。
If you have a kid in school right now, you know the drill.
本来二十分钟就能做完的作业,最后拖成两小时,还动不动就哭鼻子。
What should take twenty minutes of homework ends up taking two hours and usually ends in tears.
可每个靠谱的家教呢?
And every good tutor?
早就排满好几个月了。
Well, they're fully booked for months.
本期节目由Brainly赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Brainly.
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Brainly is an AI powered personal tutor built by educators, not a general purpose chatbot.
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It doesn't just give your kid the answer, it walks them through step by step explanations so they actually understand the material.
它能摸清你孩子的学习方式,及时发现他们卡壳的地方,三分钟内就定制出专属学习方案。
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期末考试快到了。
Finals are coming.
赶紧帮孩子规划好复习计划吧。
Build your teen's study plan now.
花不了几分钟。
It only takes minutes.
去 brainly.com/bigtech,用我的专属码 Big Tech,首月订阅立减五成。
Go to brainly.com/bigtech to get 50% off your first Brainly subscription with my code, Big Tech.
就是 brainly.com/bigtech。
That's brainly.com/bigtech.
大多数管理者都知道工作本该怎么做,但说到实际每天在不同工具、团队和交接环节中到底怎么执行,他们基本都在猜。
Most leaders know how work is supposed to happen, but when it comes to how it actually gets done day to day across tools, teams, and handoffs, they're mostly guessing.
Scribe Optimize 就是为了解决这个问题而生的。
That's exactly the problem Scribe Optimize was built to solve.
它已被超过八万家企业信赖,包括近一半的《财富》500强公司,能让你实时看清员工在哪些获批的商业软件里真正在做什么,完全不用搞访谈、手工画流程图,也不用额外增加团队负担。
Trusted by over 80,000 enterprises, including nearly half of the Fortune 500, it gives leaders a live view into how work is really happening across approved business apps without interviews, manual process mapping, or extra effort from the team.
因为它持续分析真实的工作流活动,所以洞察永远是新鲜的,哪怕流程一变,数据也不会过时。
And because it's continuously analyzing real workflow activity, the insights stay current instead of going stale the moment a process changes.
你能清楚看到哪些流程在跑、时间都花在哪、用了哪些工具。
You can see which workflows are happening, where time is going, and which tools are involved.
它会自动揪出最突出的问题,解释原因,甚至给出解决方案,还附带预计能省下多少时间。
It automatically surfaces top issues, explains why they're happening, and even recommends ways to fix them with estimated time savings.
更重要的是,它从设计之初就特别注重隐私保护。
And importantly, it's built with privacy in mind.
所以,只有管理员批准的商业应用中的活动才会被记录,用户级别的数据默认都是匿名处理的。
So activity is only captured in admin approved business apps, and user level data is anonymized by default.
以前要花几个月才能搞清楚的情况,现在随时都能看得一清二楚。
The kind of visibility that used to take months, now it's just always on.
如果你不想再猜来猜去,想真正看清现状,就去 scribe.how/bigtech 看看吧。
If you're ready to stop guessing and start seeing, visit scribe.how/bigtech.
就是 scribe.how/bigtech。
That's scribe.how/bigtech.
我们回到《大科技》播客,今天邀请到的是 Spyglass 的 M.
And we're back here on Big Technology podcast with M.
G.
G.
西格勒。
Siegler of Spyglass.
你可以在 spyglass.org 找到他们。
You could find it at spyglass.org.
强烈推荐。
Highly recommend.
你去瞧瞧,顺便订阅一下他们的通讯。
You go check it out and sign up for the newsletter.
我最爱读的之一。
One of my favorite reads.
M。
M.
G,咱们聊聊那个条款吧。
G, let's talk a little bit about the clause.
对吧?
Right?
微软和OpenAI的合作一直挺特别、挺诡异的,尤其是合同里有一条:如果OpenAI真搞出了通用人工智能,微软就立马失去所有技术权益。
So Microsoft and OpenAI famously have had very interesting and weird iterations of their tie up, including this one clause in the contract that if OpenAI sort of reached AGI, Microsoft lost all rights to its technology after that.
上周呢,微软和OpenAI达成了新协议:首先,OpenAI可以跟任何云服务商合作,结果立马就跑去宣布跟AWS合作了。
And last week, basically what happened was Microsoft and OpenAI came to this agreement where, first of all, OpenAI could work with any cloud provider and then it immediately ran and announced this deal with AWS.
所以现在亚马逊云的客户也能用上了,我估计,根据我和谷歌云负责人托马斯·库里安的交流,谷歌那边很快也会上线。
So it's now available on on Amazon for Amazon cloud customers, and I anticipate, and, you know, given my conversations that I've had with Thomas Curian, the head of Google Cloud Platform, that it will come to Google fairly soon as well.
他可盼着呢。
He wants it there.
没错。
Yep.
这是第一点。
So that's one.
但更奇怪的第二点是,那个关于AGI的条款,现在没了。
But then the second and the maybe the weirder thing was this AGI clause, is now gone.
微软现在能一直用到2032年,这就是目前双方合作的现状。
And, basically, Microsoft has access to OpenAI's IP till 2032, and that is the state of the partnership today.
是不是太简单了?我觉得微软其实早就对和OpenAI合作有点烦了,手握这么大股份,干脆觉得两家离得越远越好,但又希望OpenAI能做大做强——毕竟自己投了这么多钱,那就随便你跟谁合作吧。
Is it is is it too simple to read this as, Microsoft has been kind of annoyed working with OpenAI and has this huge stake in the company, realized that two companies would basically be better as far apart as they could be, and meanwhile, wants OpenAI to grow because it has such a large stake in the company that it says, go ahead and work with anybody.
你们对Azure的贡献,没我们当初想的那么大。
You're not helping our Azure business as much as we thought you would.
所以我们更希望你赶紧走远点,越壮大越好,我们就只管收钱。
And so we'd rather just you kinda get out of here, be be as big as you can, and we'll just take the money.
不对。
Nope.
我觉得这么理解一点儿都不简单。
Not too simple to read it that way.
我也是这么看的。
I I think that's the way I read it.
我的意思是,这事儿挺有意思的。
I mean, this is fun.
一直盯着这场大戏看,整个过程特别带劲,尤其是他们还老说这事儿根本没什么。
It's just following this whole drama and the saga has been fun, especially because they keep insisting that there's, you know, nothing to this.
老说一切都很完美,时不时还发一张萨姆和萨提亚的合照刷个存在感。
Like, everything is great and, you know, we'll get the Sam and Satya picture tweeted out every once in a while.
但到这会儿,各种爆料都够多了。
But, obviously, at this point, like, there's been enough reports.
这些奇怪的交易已经够多了。
There's been enough just of these weird deals.
这次新协议的更新,距离上一次大动干戈的修订才过了六个月,那次改得可真够多的,就是为了帮OpenAI铺平道路,最终变成一家公益型公司,还能有真正的股东。
The fact that this deal, this new this new update to their agreement, is happening six months after the last one, which was this massive undertaking, right, in in with a lot of changes made so that OpenAI could clear the path to eventually become, you know, the public benefit corporation and get actual equity holders in the company.
当然,这也能为他们将来上市铺路,他们现在显然还在朝这个目标努力。
And that, of course, would pave the way for them to eventually go public, which they're obviously still working towards.
但有意思的是,AGI条款在那次谈判里压根没被删掉,对吧?
But the fact that the AGI clause didn't go away in those negotiations was interesting, right?
他们只是改了改,没直接砍掉。
Like, they tweaked it, but they didn't kill it outright.
可以想象,这肯定让微软很不爽,毕竟到头来,头顶上还是悬着这么个怪东西——以前,如果我没记错的话,OpenAI董事会只要一宣布AGI,就能直接毁掉这笔交易,彻底跟微软断了关系,想干嘛就干嘛。
And presumably, that still annoyed Microsoft because at the end of the day, they still had this weird thing hanging over their heads where even though they tweaked it to the point where previously, if I have it right, the OpenAI board could have announced AGI and just torpedoed the deal, basically ended the relationship with Microsoft and they were able to do whatever they wanted.
所以他们之前握着单方面否决这笔交易的权力。
And so they had this unilateral power over the deal.
上一轮谈判里,微软好不容易把这权力给拿掉了,可这玩意儿居然还在。
So Microsoft did away with that in the last go around of those negotiations, but it's still there.
他们只是得勉强达成一致。
They just had to sort of co agree.
所以看起来这相当于实际上废除了这条款,对吧?
And so it seemed like a de facto going away of it, right?
微软根本就不会同意他们摆脱商业上的义务,对吧?
Like, was Microsoft never going to agree to let them go away from their obligations from a business perspective?
大概不会。
Probably not.
但现在清楚多了。
But now it's much cleaner.
现在AGI条款彻底没了。
Now there's no more AGI clause.
我不记得我写这篇文章时是怎么想的,当时也不确定这背后有没有深意——也许OpenAI觉得AGI会来得更快,或者更慢?
I don't know when I wrote about this, I didn't know if to read into that, if there was anything to read into it, this is the notion that maybe OpenAI thought it was coming sooner or thought it was coming later, right?
他们觉得现在可以这么做了,因为根本不在乎了。
Like that they felt like that they could do this now because they didn't care.
不过说到底,我觉得这事儿根本不重要。
But ultimately, I'm not sure that that matters at all.
真正关键的只有一点:他们敲定了和亚马逊的合作,而且是他们真心想做的合作。
I think that all that matters is they had a deal that they wanted to do with Amazon.
之前大家都知道他们拿到了亚马逊的巨额投资,这件事我们之前也聊过。
They had famously taken a huge investment from Amazon, which we had talked about previously.
微软当时差点就起诉了
Microsoft almost sued
对,是这样。
them Right.
之所以会这样,是因为
For it because
当时微软都打算起诉他们了,而且这个问题会扯到各种定义上,比如有状态模型和无状态模型的区别,反正就是要深究他们在法律层面到底能做什么,会特别麻烦。
They were going to sue them and because it was a question of the definition of, you know, like state state versus stateless models or, you know, getting into the weeds of of what the what they could legally do.
所以这事要是拖下去,往后肯定又得头疼,又是一场硬仗。
And so that was obviously going to be another headache and battle going forward.
同时,我觉得OpenAI之所以能有这么惊人的增长,很大程度上是因为Anthropic能通过亚马逊、谷歌,现在还有微软来销售他们的模型,对吧?
And at the same time, OpenAI, I think that there's a very real case to be made that part of the reason why Anthropic has seen the sort of incredible surge by all accounts that they've been seeing is because they have this path where they can sell their models via Amazon and via Google, right, and now via Microsoft as well.
所以他们有更大的自由空间,因为所有主要的云服务商都能成为他们的销售渠道,而OpenAI却只能靠微软这一条路。
And so they have a much more greenfield opportunity because they have all of the major cloud providers that they could sell on, whereas OpenAI was restricted in that they could only really do it through Microsoft.
所以我觉得萨提亚和萨姆两人坐下来,达成了一个相对简单的协议——去掉AGI条款,让我们能自由部署自己的模型。
And so I think that the two sides, it sounds like Satya and Sam, got together and basically hashed out a simple, at least relatively speaking, more simple agreement, get rid of the AGI clause and allow us to run our models anywhere.
另外,让我觉得最有趣的是,虽然微软不再需要向OpenAI分润收入,但OpenAI还得继续向微软付钱,哪怕他们用的是AWS,或者将来用谷歌云也一样。
Oh, and by the way, the most interesting thing to me about this entire announcement was while Microsoft no longer has to pay revenue share back to OpenAI, OpenAI still has to pay it to Microsoft and they have to pay it even when they're using AWS or potentially Google in the future.
除了你提到的微软靠持股获益这一点——他们当然希望OpenAI越壮大越好,这样他们的股份价值也越高——但更重要的是,微软还能从自己最大的云竞争对手身上赚钱,这无疑让合作更顺了,我觉得。
And so beyond what your point about Microsoft being incentivized with the you know, with their equity holding, which obviously they care about and want that to be as big of a company as possible so that their percentage of that big company is bigger, the fact that they're going be making more and more money off of their chief rivals in the cloud potentially obviously help grease those wheels and make that happen, I feel like.
对微软来说,什么更重要?
What's more valuable to Microsoft?
说实话很难说准,但让OpenAI增长50%,你的25%股份跟着涨,这价值有多大?
I mean, it's hard to know exactly, but having OpenAI grow, let's say, 50% bigger and having your 25% stake, you know, you know, grow in that in that same nature.
或者你更相信——因为你在最近的文章里提过,OpenAI的模型才是最强的。
Or if you believe because I think in your recent pieces, you've stated OpenAI has the best models.
从已经发布的模型来看,GPT-5.5 现在确实是市场上最强的。
It certainly seems like, in terms of released models, GPT 5.5 is the best on the market right now.
对。
Mhmm.
我觉得,从微软的角度来说,要是只有在 Azure 上才能用上这些模型,那就算对 OpenAI 有点限制,也值了。
I think, you know, maybe being the only place making Azure the only place you can get those models is so is just even if it I mean, I'm thinking from a Microsoft standpoint.
就算 Sam 再让人头疼,让他跑去跟亚马逊合作,这代价也太大了,真舍不得放。
Even if it hampers OpenAI a bit, it's almost like no matter how annoying Sam might be to you, like, going and working with Amazon, that is a tough thing to give up.
这种独家合作,真不是说放弃就能放弃的。
That exclusivity is a tough thing to give up.
我明白微软可能心里想:‘算了,你们爱去哪儿去哪儿吧’,从情绪上能理解。
And while I can understand how, like, you know, physiologically the Microsoft might have been, like, kind of, like, to hell with it, go do what you want.
但我还是觉得,让 OpenAI 去哪儿都行,这步棋可能有点冒险。
I still kind of think that it might be a mistake to let OpenAI go everywhere.
这其实也印证了我那篇文章里说的,那个条款取消之后,其实还有个没被重视的潜在条款,我念一段给你听。
So and this speaks to, you know, the point of my piece writing about the the end of the clause is that there's another potential clause in here, which I think was downplayed a little bit in that, and I could just read this part of it.
对。
Yep.
微软仍然是OpenAI的主要云合作伙伴,除非微软无法或不愿提供所需功能,否则OpenAI的产品都会优先在Azure上发布。
Microsoft remains OpenAI's primary cloud partner, and OpenAI products will ship first on Azure unless Microsoft cannot and chooses not to support the necessary capabilities.
所以在我看来,这一点非常关键。
So to me, that's that and is very important.
对吧?
Right?
因为这明显是经过精心措辞的,你得相信,这种话肯定有大批律师反复推敲过。
Because it's basically saying, assuming that they worded this, like, in very direct very deliberately in this way, which you have to believe that many lawyers port over poured over such a statement.
这是博客文章里的一段话。
This was a statement in the blog post.
也可能是Copilot。
Or it may be Copilot.
还有几个Copilot。
And A couple of Copilot.
说不定是Copilot胡编了整个协议呢。
Maybe Copilot hallucinated the entire thing, the agreement.
但要是这话当真,那意思就是微软对OpenAI推出的任何新模型和新功能,依然拥有优先使用权。
But if this is to be believed, it's basically that Microsoft still has a right of first refusal on these new models and new capabilities that OpenAI puts out there.
比如说,当他们第一次推出GPT 5.5的时候,可能就会说:嘿,我们想让这个功能在Azure上独家上线一段时间。
So say, you know, when they roll out GPT 5.5 for the first time, there might be a world in which they could say like, hey, we wanted this to be exclusive on Azure for a set period of time.
我真想知道这些条款到底长什么样,他们要是真有这权利,能独占多久啊。
I'd love to know what those terms look like, how long they could actually keep such exclusivity if they're allowed to.
也可能就是说,只要OpenAI推出新产品,就得先在Azure上架。
Could be something like And if they roll out a new product, if OpenAI rolls out a new product, they have to offer it first on Azure as well.
而OpenAI在这种情况下唯一的出路,还是那句话——除非微软撑不住,或者压根不想支持。
And it's basically OpenAI's only out in that situation is, again, if Microsoft cannot support whatever it is or they choose not to.
根本不是说‘哎,你们Azure缺X、Y、Z这些功能,所以我们只好上AWS了’这种理由。
So it's not even the fact that they would say like, yeah, but you guys don't have X, Y, and Z capabilities in Azure, and so therefore we're going to roll this out on AWS.
也不是说‘我们干脆上Google Cloud算了’。
We're going to roll this out on Google Cloud.
微软必须明确说:我们不会推出这个X、Y、Z功能。
They have to Microsoft has to explicitly say, we will not roll out whatever X, Y, and Z is.
谁知道呢,万一真走到那一步,比如OpenAI和亚马逊搞出个超牛的新产品,说只能在AWS上跑,微软肯定又炸了,心想:你们瞧瞧。
Now who knows, you know, if they ever get to that point, but you could see a world in which, you know, say OpenAI and Amazon come up with some new amazing product offering that they're saying is only available, only able to be done on AWS and Microsoft getting again mad because they would say, like, well, look.
这功能我们Azure也能做啊。
We can roll that out on Azure too.
我不同意你们说这玩意儿只能独家上AWS。
Like, so I don't I don't agree with your your ability to roll this out exclusively on AWS.
这事迟早还得再闹一回。
You know this is gonna come up again.
这事儿肯定没完,各方之间的矛盾也不会就此收场。
Like, there's no way this is the end of this of this conversation and the end of, like, the animosity between all the parties here.
你说得对,Mike,微软居然允许OpenAI——现在都占了它25%、27%股份的大股东——去跟自家死对头、全球最大的云服务商合作,这事儿本身就够离谱的。
Like, because to your point, Mike, the fact that Microsoft is is okaying OpenAI, their 25, 27, whatever it is now, percent holder, you know, giant equity portion of the company working with their chief rival, the biggest cloud provider in the world, is is sort of incredible.
所以很明显,这种矛盾还会反复出现,但接下来还会有新的条款要谈。
And so, obviously, this is still going to come up time and time again, but there's there's new clauses to be to be had here.
好像只要谁说‘没有我们就没有OpenAI’,就会对OpenAI特别恼火,不管是马斯克、微软,还是别的谁。
It seems like anybody who can say the sentence OpenAI would not exist without us tends to get very annoyed at OpenAI, whether it's Elon or Microsoft or Yep.
不管是谁吧。
Whatever it might be.
没错。
Yep.
这事儿永远没完。
It's never gonna end.
而且这事儿啊,确实。
And this is yeah.
他们一谈合作,就像你说的,肯定要跟谷歌搞在一起。
This whole when they do a deal, to your point, they're obviously gonna do a deal with Google.
迟早会用上GCP的。
They're gonna be in GCP at some point.
你提到的这点挺有意思,关于Azure和微软的打算。
And then it sort of becomes you bring up an interesting point around Azure and Microsoft's game plan.
以前呢,亚马逊确实是这么玩的,但现在大家都这么干了,每个云服务商都想把所有模型都上架。
Historically, I think Amazon has more run the game plan, but now to the point that all the clouds are doing it, they all want to offer all the models.
对吧?
Right?
他们都说:我们希望客户想用哪个模型就用哪个。
They're saying like, We want the customer to choose whatever model they want.
我们当然希望他们在我们的云上跑,但模型你随便挑。
We want them to be operating on our cloud, but we want them to choose.
管它是自家的模型呢,还是别的公司的。
We don't care if it's our own model.
不管是OpenAI的,还是Anthropic的,都没关系。
We don't care if it's an OpenAI model, if it's an Anthropic model.
现在有了OpenAI这个新开放政策,各家基本上都能提供所有主流模型了。
So they're reaching to the point now with OpenAI's new unlock that they'll all be able to offer basically all of the models.
至于微软,有了这些新推出的较小规模的模型,他们或许能说:你还是选Azure吧,就算别的云也能跑其他公司的模型,但我们能第一时间拿到OpenAI最新的模型。
And Microsoft, I guess, with this with these newer smaller clauses might be able to say, you should pick Azure because even if you can run all of the other players, you know, models on the other clouds, we're going to get the first look at the new the latest OpenAI models.
这可能足以让一些公司决定:你还是可以选Claude,如果你愿意的话。
And maybe that's enough to sway some companies, you know, to go you can still choose Claude if you want.
你还是可以选别的,不一定非得选Gemini,但像DeepSeek这些其他模型,你照样能选。
You can still choose maybe not Gemini, but you can still choose something else, some of these other models, DeepSeek and whatnot, if you want.
即使我们不是全程独占,至少我们还能抢先体验。
But we're going to have the first look advantage still, even if we don't have the exclusivity full time.
这就跟电影的窗口期差不多。
It's almost like movie windowing.
我们正踏入一个挺奇怪的新世界。
It's a weird new world we're entering.
现在影院里上映的是GPT 5.5,接下来才轮到GVD和谷歌。
Now in theaters, GPT 5.5 before comes to GVD on to Google.
AWS在四月初就上了。
AWS in, in early April.
天哪。
And Oh my goodness.
是的。
Yeah.
不是。
No.
这话有道理。
There is there's truth to that.
好吧。
Alright.
我 definitely 想好好讲讲这个 Stargate 的事,因为这属于那种大新闻——你还记得吧,OpenAI 当初宣布要砸五千亿美金建 AI 基础设施。
I I definitely wanna cover this Stargate story, because it's one of those big stories where, if folks, if you recall, OpenAI announced this $500,000,000,000 build out of AI infrastructure.
马斯克当时就说了,他们根本没这么多钱。
Elon Musk famously said they don't have the money.
后来有报道说,什么 Stargate 公司根本没成立,Stargate 本身也没真启动,现在这词儿倒成了大家对 OpenAI 所有基建的统称。
And then Stargate there were reports that, like, oh, the Stargate company never formed, and Stargate itself didn't didn't, you know, get started, and now Stargate is kind of this, like, catch all word encapsulating all of OpenAI's infrastructure.
MGI,你觉得我这说法靠谱吗?
And MGI, you know, let me know if you think this is this makes sense.
这其实很好地反映了OpenAI整体的基础设施策略,因为大家原本以为OpenAI会自己大力建设数据中心,但实际上他们转而直接租用或合作现有的数据中心。
This is, like, a good window into OpenAI's infrastructure as a whole because I think the conventional wisdom that OpenAI was gonna go out and build a lot of its own infrastructure, and actually it's shifted to OpenAI has secured those data centers as opposed to building those data centers.
整个过程其实悄无声息,一开始的新闻闹得挺大,确实吸引了不少关注,但之后发生的事,根本没人提了。
And this has kind of happened in a really quiet way that, the headlines in the beginning were very loud and, you know, obviously got a lot of attention, but what's happened afterwards, certainly has not.
那你来讲讲这个故事吧。
So take us into that story.
是的。
Yeah.
当时闹得特别大,你还记得吗?那正是特朗普重返白宫的第一天。
And it got loud to the point where, remember, this was president Trump's first day back in office.
他找的是马斯克,抱歉,我说错了。
He has Elon Musk sorry.
不是马斯克。
Not Elon Musk.
根本就和马斯克没关系。
Famously not Elon Musk there.
尽管他是新政府里Doge派系的一员。
Even though he's a part of the new Doge part of the whole administration.
但他本人没在场,同去的是萨姆·阿尔特曼、埃隆的劲敌马萨森,还有拉里·埃里森。
He is not there, but there with him is Sam Altman, Elon's big rival, Massasan, and Larry Ellison.
这三个人陪着特朗普总统在白宫宣布了‘Stargate’项目,计划投入五千亿美金——那可是个天大的手笔。
So the three of them are there alongside President Trump in the White House announcing the Stargate, Project Stargate, which was going to be a $500,000,000,000 which, you know, was a massive deal.
现在回头看这些数字,感觉有点过时了,毕竟这些公司的估值都涨到哪儿去了,但当时这确实是史上最大的基础设施项目之一。
It looks sort of quaint almost now when you when you talk about these numbers given where these companies are valued at, but it was a massive infrastructure deal.
显然,这对特朗普政府来说是个巨大的政治胜利。
And obviously, it was a big win for the Trump administration.
我们也可以争论,这些项目可能早就谈好了,只是重新包装了一下,但这类操作在这些官宣里早就见怪不怪了。
We could argue that a lot of these deals were maybe already in place and maybe they were repurposing things and and whatnot, but that's sort of par for the course, it seems like, with some of these announcements.
但不管怎么说,这确实是个绝佳的公关时刻,对这些公司来说也是风光无限,看起来甚至像是美国的一次重大突破。
But still, regardless, it was a great PR moment and a great moment for all these companies, and it looked like a great moment, you know, potentially for America.
我们本以为将迎来一个由顶级企业联手、政府全力支持的超级AI计划。
We were going have this huge, huge new AI initiative backed by these major companies and including obviously the government.
然后接下来的一年里,第一个Stargate项目就落地了,地点在德克萨斯州的阿比林,建个数据中心——顺便说一句,这地方本来压根不是冲着Stargate去的。
And so fast forward over the next year, it basically went into place that the first Stargate, which was going to be in data center in Abilene, Texas, which, by the way, did not start out as a Stargate project.
它最初挺奇怪的,居然是马斯克的一个项目,由甲骨文在操办。
It started out oddly as an Elon Musk project that Oracle was building.
一堆公司都在参与建设。
A whole range of people were building.
蓝资本也掺和进来了。
Blue Capital is involved with it.
还有好多其他玩家都在里头。
A lot of other players are involved with it.
但最终,OpenAI拉着甲骨文,把这项目改成了第一个Stargate,打算就这么往下推进。
But basically, OpenAI was able to bring this in with Oracle to make it now the first Stargate, and it was going to go from there.
可再过一年,各种风声就来了,说合作黄了、项目搁浅了,根本没按当初说的那样上线。
But fast forward again over the next year, there were just a lot of weird reports about deals getting backed out of and nothing sort of coming online in the way that they had hoped.
他们之前不是说5000亿美元吗?其中1000亿一上来就砸下去了,摆明了要大干一场。
They again had talked about of the 500,000,000,000, 100,000,000,000 was committed right out of the gates and they were going to come out swinging.
而且again,进展真的特别慢。
And again, it was just really slow going.
后来的报道说,可能咱们压根儿就不打算用这个设施了,软银也很难筹到启动这个项目所需的贷款。
And the subsequent reports had it that like, yeah, well, maybe we're not going to use this facility and maybe SoftBank was having a hard time raising the debt needed to get this facility off the ground.
说不定甲骨文自己也搞不定融资,没法把项目推下去。
Maybe Oracle was having a hard time raising the debt needed to get out.
对了,顺便说一句,甲骨文和OpenAI都打算退出这个项目了,就是阿比林站点的扩建部分。
Oh, by the way, Oracle and OpenAI are backing out of this facility, the extension of the Abilene site.
那谁来接手呢?
And who's coming in?
居然是微软,挺奇怪的。
Microsoft, oddly.
所以这一连串稀奇古怪的事儿全凑一块儿了。
And so all of these weird things going on.
不过你说得对,对我来说,这些事儿恰恰完美地体现了OpenAI在这段时间里的转变。
But you're exactly right that to me, this basically encapsulates the change that OpenAI has made over that time.
我觉得这里面还有一些边边角角但相关的动向,比如英伟达那笔大交易,也很有意思,对吧?
And I think that there's other plays in here which are sort of tangential but related, including the big deal with NVIDIA, which is another interesting deal, right?
我们之前聊过,英伟达当时高调宣布,由黄仁勋、格雷格·布罗克曼和萨姆·阿尔特曼一起,承诺在未来一段时间内向OpenAI投资一千亿美元。
We had talked about it previously where NVIDIA announced with much pomp and circumstance with Jensen and Greg Brockman and Sam Altman that they were going to invest $100,000,000,000 into OpenAI over an extended period of time.
结果呢,这事儿突然就悄无声息地没了影儿。
And then all of a sudden, that quietly went away.
那这笔交易的关键到底是什么?
Well, what was a big part of that deal?
关键就在于,得为OpenAI继续扩建数据中心筹到足够的资金。
A big part of that deal was clearly in order to secure the debt required for OpenAI to continue these build outs.
自从Stargate项目公布以来,OpenAI在好几篇博客里都提到,他们得想出一些新颖又神秘的新办法来为这些数据中心融资。
OpenAI has been talking about in various blog posts over the time span since Stargate came out that they needed to come up with interesting and mysterious new ways of doing capital financing for these data center build outs.
没错,你说得特别准,他们当时的想法就是觉得这些设施得自己掌控。
And yes, to your exact point, the thought process seemed to be that they felt like they needed to own these.
他们没打算拥有Abilene那个场地,因为那块儿早就已经安排好了。
They weren't going to own the Abilene site because that was already sort of, again, backed into that was already in place.
但往后,他们想掌控更多这些设施。
But going forward, they wanted to own a lot of these.
在我看来,这分明说明他们意识到真正的威胁其实是谷歌。
And to me, that just read like they realized that their real threat was Google.
谷歌嘛,大家都知道,自家的数据中心、所有基础设施全都是自己的。
Google, of course, famously owns, you know, their data centers and owns all of the infrastructure that they need.
那OpenAI怎么跟人家竞争呢?
And so how is OpenAI going be able to compete with that?
作为一个亏钱亏到飞起的初创公司,他们根本没法筹到建这些设施所需的巨额贷款。
Well, they couldn't, as a massively money losing startup, be able to raise the debt needed in order to build out these facilities.
所以他们先后跟甲骨文、软银,最后跟英伟达合作。
And so they were partnering with Oracle, with SoftBank, eventually with NVIDIA.
但这些合作呢,最后都不同程度地退了回来。
But again, all of these sort of came back and were pulled back to varying degrees.
现在看来,整个叙事已经彻底转向了。
And now the narrative, it seems like, has shifted fully.
我之前写过这个问题,因为这件事的弦外之音其实很好懂:他们的叙事彻底变了。原本的计划是由「星门计划」牵头为OpenAI搭建这套庞大的基础设施,但现在方向变了——变成各家公司各自想办法搭建自己的基础设施,最后再把这些项目都并入星门计划,让「星门」变成一个笼统的统称。就像你刚才说的,现在事态确实就是这么发展的。
And I've written about this because it felt like that was an easy thing to read in between the lines of that they were changing that narrative, that it was no longer going to be Project Stargate building up these massive infrastructure for OpenAI, whereas it's going to be now, we're going to figure out how to build up this massive infrastructure individually, all these companies, and maybe we'll rope them into Stargate and Stargate will just be the catchall term exactly And as you laid now that seems to be the world.
还有一层我得补充一下,整件事的诡异之处和OpenAI公关策略的转向脱不开关系:他们现在发的博客文章特别离谱,简直是在颠倒黑白,一口咬定说「大家都知道,我们从最开始就说好了,事情本来就该这么发展」。
And the only thing I would say the other layer of this is the weirdness is related to sort of the evolving PR strategy of OpenAI, where they now write blog posts that are sort of gas light y in the way that they're basically saying like, Yeah, as you know, we announced this as It was always going to be the plan that this was sort of going to play out this way.
但事实根本不是这样。
And that's just not the case.
你去翻他们以前的博客就知道,当初星门计划的初始方案,和他们现在对外说的完全不是一回事。
Like, if you look at those old blog posts, they were not laid out in the way that they're currently laying out the current Stargate initiative.
而且这个收缩的情况从Stargate项目的调整上也能看出来,不光是美国,英国还有全球各地都是这样。
And you see it in the in the pullback again of Stargate, not just in The US either, in The UK and all around the world.
他们本来都规划了这些布局项目的。
Like, they have these initiatives.
所有这些动作背后显然都和一个需求挂钩:如果OpenAI真的打算上市,那它就得先把开支给控住。
And it's all tied to it seems like it's all tied to, obviously, the need for them to corral spending a little bit if and when they're gonna really try to go public.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得有一点很重要,就是这个新策略把所有风险都转嫁给了合作伙伴。
I mean, one thing I'll say is that this new strategy also shifts all the risk to, like, the partners
没错。
Yes.
通过那些Oracle、NVIDIA,还有像Nebius、CoreWeave这样的新兴云服务商。
Through the Oracles and Nvidia's and a lot of the neo clouds that kind of exist, like the Nebius and the core weaves.
我们之前请过CoreWeave来节目,他们讲自己业务的时候,我觉得特别清楚。
I mean, we had core weave on, and the one thing I couldn't you know, I thought they did a great job explaining their business when they were here on the show.
而且很明显,他们上完节目后股价直接涨了12%。
And obviously, think their stock popped like 12% after their appearance.
所以啊,想火就赶紧上大科技播客。
So folks put your put your people on big technology podcast.
但整个故事最大的问题在于,你们的生意全靠OpenAI真能把基础设施建起来这个承诺撑着。
But but I I think the the weakness in the whole story is, your whole business is based off of OpenAI keeping this promise of building out the infrastructure.
尤其是上周,《华尔街日报》那篇报道出来后,OpenAI急着否认,CFO莎拉·弗莱尔直接说:如果我们赚不到更多钱,就别想建新数据中心。
And last week in particular, when there was that Wall Street Journal report, which OpenAI pushed back on very, strongly that, like, Sarah Fryer, the CFO, was like, if we don't make more money, we're not gonna build more data centers.
这在那些新云服务商和合作伙伴中间引起了不小的震动。
That caused a real reaction in in these these partners in the neo clouds.
整个圈子都受到了不小的冲击。
The the whole wave of them got hit pretty hard.
如果你想找这个AI故事里真正的风险点或薄弱环节,我觉得就在这儿。
And that's that is like if you're looking for areas of risk or weakness in this whole AI story, that's the place I would look.
对。
Yeah.
往后看,问题又回来了:他们是想回到以前的策略,就是那种觉得得跟谷歌抗衡的思路?
And and going forward, the the question is going back to their old strategy or what seemed to be their old strategy where they felt like maybe they had to combat Google, right?
而谷歌可是掌控着底层基础设施的。
And Google again owns the infrastructure.
那你到底为啥非得自己搞这个?
And what's the reason why you would want it?
干脆全外包出去不好吗?
Why wouldn't you just want to offload all this?
对吧?
Right?
因为这事儿太理想了。
Because it'd be great.
说到底,你还是得花钱请人来做这些事,对吧?
Well, at the end of the day, like you're still like you're paying people in order to do this work, right?
如果你自己掌控全部,就像我们聊苹果那样,从硬件到软件全自研,成本优势自然就大得多。
And if you own it and control it completely, just like we talked about with Apple, owning the whole stack and whatnot, you're going to have better cost advantages over the people who don't.
所以谷歌在做所有AI相关工作上,从顶层来看,优势明显,毕竟它有庞大的基础设施,而OpenAI根本没这条件。
And so Google's in a much better position, it feels like, at the highest level of being able to do all of the AI work that they need to do because of their massive infrastructure capabilities, whereas OpenAI just doesn't have that.
再看看Anthropic现在多慌,拼命补基础设施的短板——其实OpenAI倒是个好例子,过去几个月大家总说他们像醉汉一样乱花钱,搞什么基础设施扩张,具体怎么说的我都记不清了。
And look at now what's happening even with Anthropic, where they're scrambling to ramp up on the infrastructure side, because I think OpenAI is a good point that for all the talk of the past many months that maybe, you know, I don't remember how exactly they framed it, but that OpenAI was spending like drunken sailors or whatnot, you know, like in terms of their infrastructure plans.
但好处是,他们现在真有足够算力应付需求,Anthropic就不行,感觉完全跟不上。
There was an upside to that in that they now have the capacity to meet the demands, whereas Anthropic, it feels like does not.
那谷歌自己,真有这些问题吗?
So And again, does Google have those problems?
不是。
No.
微软呢?所有云服务商都说自己产能受限,某种程度上确实如此,对吧?
Does Microsoft I mean, all the cloud providers are saying that they're capacity constrained and they are to certain degrees, right?
归根结底,还是靠芯片和电力。
Because it comes down to ultimately chips and or power.
但如果我们相信,这些问题最终都会解决,那谷歌从底层到上层全自研的架构,未来在成本上会远远压过OpenAI。
But still, if we believe that we're going to get to a world where those issues are eventually resolved, Google's just overall owning of, again, that entire stack when it comes to the infrastructure is going to give them massive cost advantages over what OpenAI is going to be able to offer up at that steady state.
我们现在还没到那个阶段。
We're not in that steady state right now.
所以眼下这些问题被掩盖了,但他们为啥非得往那儿走,你懂的?
And so it's sort of masked a little bit, but there's a reason why they wanted to get there, right?
等未来这些巨型云平台越来越成熟,OpenAI还能在成本上跟谷歌、微软、亚马逊这些巨头抗衡吗?
Are they gonna be able to compete on a on a cost basis with with the Googles of the world and, you know, increasingly the Microsofts, Amazons of the world as we go forward with these massive clouds?
说到底,问题就在这儿。
And so that's what it comes down to.
没错,就是这样。
And that's gonna be Yep.
但那至少得是几年后的事了,感觉上是这样。
But that's like that's a few years down the road, it feels like.
对吧?
Right?
到那时候,OpenAI 可能已经上市了。
And maybe OpenAI is public already by then.
也许到那时他们能熬过难关,毕竟现在是上市公司了。
Maybe they get in a situation where it ends up playing out okay from them because they're now a public company.
他们能更好地控制开支,集中精力。
They were able to corral spending a bit, focus.
我这可是给他们描绘了一个理想场景:他们能用各种金融工具融资,发债什么的,自己建基础设施。
I'm laying out a good case scenario for them, they're able to sort of use different monetary instruments to raise what they need, to raise debt and whatnot, to build out their own infrastructure.
而且因为技术一直在变,也许他们不在阿比林控制基础设施,也没那么要紧。
And because of the way that the things are constantly evolving, maybe it doesn't matter so much that they don't control the infrastructure at Abilene.
其实你能不能控制住前几个星门,也没那么重要。
And it doesn't matter so much that you control, you know, the first few Stargates.
关键在于未来的星门,那些才用的是最新芯片,推理能力更强,能干更多活儿,等等。
So what matters is the Stargates going forward because those are the ones with the the latest chips and the the better inference and able to do the better inference and and whatnot.
所以理论上他们能做到,但问题是,从A到B得砸进去太多钱了,这恐怕会是未来几年,至少两三年里的主旋律。
And so there's a world, I guess, that they can do that, but still, it's gonna be there's gonna be so much money needed to get from a to b where that's gonna be the story of the next, you know, couple years, few years at least.
没错。
Most definitely.
这一小时过得也太快了吧。
This hour went by extremely fast.
我们本来还说要不要聊聊马斯克和奥特曼的审判,但我想你六月来的时候,说不定已经出判决了,到时候再聊更合适。
We I've we were talking about potentially covering the Musk Altman trial, but I think when you're on in June, we'll actually maybe have a verdict to discuss.
那咱们就先搁到六月再说。
So we'll leave it till June.
咱们还是聊聊那些变化飞快的事儿吧。
Think about talk about things that are moving fast.
这事儿在这期间得变十回不止。
Like, that's gonna change 10 times in between now and then.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
那我们到时候留意一下。
So we'll keep an eye out on that.
这事儿肯定挺有意思的。
That'll be interesting.
另外,大家一定要去 spyglass.org 看看 Spyglass 这个项目。
And and again, folks, definitely recommend you go check out Spyglass at spyglass.org.
嗯。
M.
很高兴再次见到你。
G, great to see you again.
谢谢你能来。
Thanks for coming on.
谢谢你,亚历克斯。
Thank you, Alex.
好了,各位。
Alright, everybody.
非常感谢大家收听和观看,我们下次再见,欢迎继续锁定《大科技》播客。
Thank you so much for listening and watching, and we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.
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