谷歌是否再次落后？iPhone折叠屏即将来临，Anthropic申请上市

这事儿挺复杂的，我们已经看到它在发生，因为谷歌的爬虫和谷歌搜索是绑在一起的。

That's complicated as we've seen already play out because Google's crawler is also tied to Google search.

如果你关掉吉米尼的爬虫，就等于在关掉谷歌搜索，而目前根本没人愿意这么做，这给了谷歌在任何这类谈判中巨大的筹码。

So if you're turning off the crawler for Gemini, you're potentially turning off Google search, which basically no one is willing to do at this point and gives Google, you know, a huge leverage point in in any such negotiation there.

亚马逊的情况也差不多，主要是和亚马逊购物挂钩。

And Amazon is a similar thing probably with, you know, just with Amazon shopping.

如果你说我不想让亚历克莎访问这些内容，那你真要切断用户对购物的访问吗？

Like, are you gonna cut off access to that if if you say, like, I don't want Alexa to have access to this.

所以亚马逊可能会说，行吧。

Therefore, you know, like, Amazon might say, okay.

那你就别想用亚马逊购物了，这种事肯定会被告上法庭，就看这些合作条款怎么定了。

Then you can't be a part of Amazon shopping, and that's gonna be, I'm sure, litigated, you know, to know when those types of deals and arrangements.

还有一件事我想起来，我们之前没聊过，最近新闻里也不多，但一开始是亚马逊在这么做——他们和《纽约时报》签了内容合作的协议。

There's one other thing that this brings to mind, which we haven't talked about or hasn't been in the news a lot recently, but was starting to play out this way, specifically from Amazon because they struck a deal with New York Times to do content.

对吧？

Right?

纽约时报呢，几乎每篇文章都会提到，他们正在起诉OpenAI侵犯内容版权，诸如此类的事。

And then New York Times famously, I think in almost every article, has to say that they're being sued sorry, they're suing OpenAI for content infringement and and whatnot.

所以在内容这块，我们看到这种现象在不同地方奇怪地出现。

And so we have this world in the content side, which you see oddly in in in different places.

前几天我又试了试Atlas，就是OpenAI的那个浏览器。

The other day, was trying out Atlas again, which is OpenAI's browser.

如果你在Atlas里打开一篇纽约时报的文章，然后用内置的ChatGPT说‘总结一下这页内容’，它会直接拒绝，因为他们没达成内容授权协议。

And if you go to a New York Times story in Atlas and you say within the Atlas native, ChechiPT, that's baked into it, if you say, like, summarize this page, it refuses to do it because they don't have an agreement on the content.

这让我觉得特别荒谬，毕竟这可是网页啊。

And that's wild to me because, again, it's the web.

我亲眼看到的内容，明明告诉AI助手我有权访问，它却因为没授权就不肯处理。

Like, I can see it with my own two eyes and I'm telling the agent that I have access to to do it, but the agent doesn't have access to that content, so they won't do it.

那为什么不能直接抓取我屏幕上的内容呢？

Now, why can't they just scrape my screen and see what I'm looking at to do it?

我倒是能绕过去，把整篇文章的内容复制粘贴到聊天框里。

And I can get around it by basically copying and pasting everything that's in that article that I want to read and putting it into the chatbot.

但这些都是一些挺荒唐的小问题、边缘案例，我担心以后会越来越频繁地碰到。

But these are like the silly things and these silly edge cases that I fear we're going to increasingly run into.

我明白你的观点，确实最终还是会回退到网页，但我已经看到不少地方在边缘处开始出问题了。

So I hear your points about that, yes, there will be fallback to the web, but I already see feel like there's there's these ways that we're seeing that break at the edges.

没错。

Right.

确实如此。

Right.

对。

Yeah.

这肯定会引发不少激烈的争斗。

It'll be a very I mean, there's gonna be some some serious fights here.

好吧，我先问两个问题，然后再聊更大的方向。

So Okay, let me ask two questions, then we'll move on to big picture questions.

我们之前讨论过Anthropic和OpenAI的估值以及它们的目标市场，主要集中在编程和企业领域，这一直是大家认为能带它们走向未来的方向，而不是消费端。

We've talked about these Anthropic and OpenAI valuations and their addressable market, largely in terms of coding and enterprise, That's sort of been the thing that people think is going to take them to the promised land, not necessarily consumer.

但如果这行得通，可能是因为它们能吸收大量的线上体验。

If this works, though, maybe because again, because they would ingest so much of the experience online.

这些业务必须得是规模巨大的才行。

Those have to be massive, massive businesses.

所以，这种类似超级应用的方式接入网络，久而久之可能会成为核心业务。

And so maybe this sort of super app style way to access the web, it works becomes the core business over time.

这简直就像是消费端的SaaS末日来临。

Like, it's almost the analog to the SaaS apocalypse just in consumer.

对。

Yeah.

每当我听你这么说，我自然就会想到，他们必须先把这一块搞定，因为一旦他们推出自己的设备，而这些设备又不依赖屏幕，那主要就得靠语音，或者某种程度上的智能眼镜来实现。

And, again, when I hear you talk about that, my mind naturally just goes to, I think that they need to do they need to get that part in order because if and when they try to do their own devices, like and if those devices aren't screen predicated, how you're gonna be able to do that is mostly through voice and or, I guess, glasses in some capacity.

他们得把所有流程都准备得完美无缺，因为只要有一丁点出问题，用户就得说：‘算了，还是等回电脑前再处理吧。’

But they need to basically have everything sort of teed up to perfection in order to do these workflows because the second that any of that stuff starts to fail or you have to say like, Oh, just you're going have to wait till you get back to your computer.

对普通消费者来说，这种体验太折腾了，他们根本不会愿意持续使用这类场景。

It just feels like it's going be too big of a hassle for a consumer, for an end user to do it, they're just going to stop sort of doing those types of use cases.

我觉得这跟当初Alexa、HomePod、Google Home还有Google助手刚出来时的情况差不多，因为功能有限，最后只能退而求其次，做些特别基础的用途。

I think this is just like basically what we saw play out with the first instantiations of Alexa and HomePod to some degrees and Google Home and everything else or Google Assistant, I guess, where because you couldn't do everything that you wanted to they basically just fell back to these really rudimentary use cases.

我担心这些新设备也会这样——如果它们只是昂贵的高级音乐播放器，或者只会报天气的简单工具，而不是我们说的这些能主动做事的智能助手，那可就太可惜了。

And the fear with these new devices coming out would be like, if they're just like really expensive newfangled music players or weathermen and these other sort of very rudimentary simple use cases versus all this agentic stuff that we're talking about, which is obviously what they aspire for them to be.

你走在路上，随口说一句：帮我去给Rick发个邮件，告诉他我晚十分钟到。

You're out on a walk and you just say like, Yeah, send an email to to Rick and tell him that I'm gonna be ten minutes late.

它能自动记住你们之前来回沟通的细节，知道怎么安排这个预约。

And it knows to follow-up on the email that you had going back and forth to set up the appointment and whatnot.

如果你没法信任这个助手在没有屏幕的情况下完成这些事，那整个体验就彻底垮了。

And if you can't trust that agent to do that without a screen, I feel like, yeah, that's where this all breaks down.

对。

Yeah.

不对。

No.

你这种想法我特别认同。

I love the way that you're thinking about it.

这个月晚些时候，格雷格·布罗克曼将在大科技AI峰会上第三次登场，我正琢磨着，咱们到底想把这场讨论引向哪里？

Have Greg Brockman round three coming up at the Big Technology AI Summit later this month, and I'm just kinda I don't know I'm gearing up to be like, where where do we wanna take this conversation?

我觉得讨论方向必须往这个领域走，尤其是得明确接下来的计划。

I think it has to go in this area, especially, you know, what the plan is.

你说得对，如果没法让所有人都参与进来，那这种东西要想运转起来，确实得靠网络效应。

I love what you're saying that if you can't get everybody to participate, you know, do you end up have you need a network effect basically for this stuff to work.

没错。

Yeah.

不然的话，你说得对，这东西根本行不通。

Otherwise, you know, it's just not you're right.

搞不好就只是个花哨的闹钟罢了。

It might be just another fancy fancy alarm clock.

好吧。

Alright.

我第二个宏观层面的问题是。

Here's here's my second big picture question.

我们再回过头来看看谷歌的例子。

Going back to the Google example.

我们一开始就是从谷歌说起的。

We started with Google.

那咱们这段也以谷歌收尾吧。

Let's end the segment with Google.

对。

Yeah.

他们难道不该这么做吗？

Don't they need to get they need to do this?

对吧？

Right?

他们难道不该参与进来吗？

Don't they need to get involved here?

在我看来，他们如果袖手旁观，让别的公司先去试水，自己却不投入精力，这简直就是自取灭亡，我这话是不是说得太重了？

To me, sitting this out and letting the other companies try their hand at this experience and not putting all the effort into it just as like a recipe for disaster, or am I being too inflammatory?

不。

No.

我的意思是，我觉得他们确实需要这么做，而且他们很可能也意识到了。

I I mean, I think that they do, and I I think that they probably recognize it.

再说一次，我觉得这次的发布特别别扭，因为所有事情……

I again, I view this this IO was super awkward because everything Mhmm.

就像我们一开始说的，那些功能本该今年夏天推出，或者今年晚些时候，几周内上线，面向Ultra用户，结果呢？什么都没准备好。

As we kicked off talking about was just like coming this summer or coming later this year, coming in a few weeks, coming to Ultra users, coming to and it's like nothing is just, like, ready to go.

我觉得他们之所以这么安排时间，是因为历史上一直都是这个时候发布的。

And I feel like the whole reason they did the timing of it is because that historically, this was when they've done it.

但现在是AI时代，他们没时间把所有想做、想讲的东西都同步好。

And, you know, now in the age of AI, they didn't have the time they didn't have the timing lined up for all these different things that they want to do and that they want to talk about.

至于你提的这个大问题——他们难道不该像其他公司那样全力推进吗？

And, yeah, to your big question, like, shouldn't they be doing exactly sort of what everyone else is going for?

我觉得他们心里清楚，自己必须这么做。

I think that they know that they have to do that.

我只是觉得，因为他们把搜索相关的工作优先处理了，所以就集中精力发挥自己的优势，明白自己是唯一做这个的，这才是他们的核心业务。

I just don't I think that because of the way that they have sort of aligned around doing getting the search stuff out of the way, they sort of focus on their strengths and figured out, like, we're the only ones who do this and this is our core business.

所以我们必须把这件事彻底搞定。

So we have to get this nailed down.

我觉得德米斯·哈萨比斯的团队其实正在幕后忙着开发那些疯狂的模型，还有健康和生命科学方面的各种想法。

And then I do think that the Demis Hassabis team is probably behind the scenes working on all these crazy models and crazy health and life science ideas that they want to work on.

这并不是说这些项目是干扰，只是注意力分配的问题。

And so it's not to say that those things are a distraction, but it's just a matter of focus.

关键是你想把重点放在哪里。

It's what you want to focus on.

谷歌一向如此，总是干太多事，然后不得不收回来，对吧？

And Google famously goes through these cycles where they're doing too much and then they have to pull back, right?

把资源集中在少数几件事上，诸如此类。

And fewer wood behind fewer arrows and all that sort of stuff.

所以我觉得，他们其实很清楚，必须像你所说的那样去做。

And so I feel like they know that they need to do exactly what you're talking about.

我觉得他们最终还是会达到那个阶段，但关键在于，有没有像Claude Code那样的先发优势？

And I do think that they will get there at some point, but it's a matter of like, is there Yeah, is there like a first mover advantage, much like there has been for Claude Code, right?

情况是这样的，虽然Codex本身也不错，但Cloud Code早就占了位置，把用户都吸走了。

Where it's like all of a sudden, because even though by all accounts, like Codex is good, but it's just not Like, Cloud Code was there and just hoovering up all of these users.

所以如果哪家公司率先做到所谓的‘超级应用’阶段，把所有用户都揽入怀中，其他人还愿意换吗？尤其是现在还整合了记忆等功能，你说是吧？

And so, like, if one of these players gets to that, quote, unquote, super app stage and, yeah, who hoovers up all the users, like, is anyone else gonna be willing to switch, especially with memory and everything else, you know, that that's integrated into this?

对。

Yeah.

我不能百分之百确定，但我觉得这正是Google面临的难题之一：当年他们做出Gemini这么厉害的模型后，把它集中放在一个叫‘引擎室’的部门里。

Now I'm not a 100% on this, but this is one of the reasons why I think this is difficult for Google is that so Google famously, when they built this great Gemini model, they sort of centralized it in something they called the engine room.

对吧？

Right?

还把最顶尖的人才都调去负责。

And they put some of their best people on it.

之后呢，他们把模型分发出去，和公司内部各个产品团队合作，推动集成。

And what they did was they then farmed it out in a way or they worked, they collaborated, shall we say, with the many product areas within the company to integrate it.

对吧？

Right?

所以谷歌那些产品部门，大家都心知肚明，它们之间壁垒挺高的。说壁垒高也不太准确，更像是各自为政，有点像封建领地。虽然不像苹果那样，但内部政治斗争还是有的。

So Google has these famously sort of walled off product areas, not walled off, but like, you know, they're they're fiefdoms in a way, not in like the same nature as Apple, but they have their, you know, politics.

没错。

Sure.

他们搞了个叫“引擎室”的AI团队，然后让这个中央团队跟各个产品部门合作，把AI技术整合到所有产品里。

And they built this engine room with AI and they sort of work together this with the centralized group work together with these product areas to integrate the AI in all the products.

所以这算是从核心部门向外推动的一种策略。

So that was sort of push from the core pushing out.

我觉得难点在于，要想做好这一点，你几乎得反过来做，对吧？

The tough part here I think is if you're going to get this right, you need to almost reverse that, right?

你需要各个产品部门在一定程度上进行集中协作，这就得牺牲一些自我利益，还得做好优先级排序，可能有些人会不太高兴。

You need the product areas working to centralize in a way, which will require some ego sub setting and some prioritization that some might not like.

而这正是你可能会碰到的瓶颈所在，导致你的开发速度赶不上 OpenAI 和 Anthropic，因为他们没有那些历史包袱需要处理。

And that is sort of where you might end up hitting some sort of build out wall where you're not able to work as fast as an OpenAI and Anthropic because they just don't have that legacy stuff to work through.

我觉得你说得很有道理。

I think that's a very good point.

我之前还真没从这个角度看，但你说得对。

I I had not thought of it from that perspective, but you're right.

说白了，谷歌庞大的规模和能力反而成了推进这件事的障碍。

It's basically Google's immense size and capabilities become a hindrance in in the building out of this.

对吧？

Right?

因为你可以想想，他们可能觉得必须回应 OpenAI 的超级应用——ChatGPT 已经推出了，据报道称，它内置了 ChatGPT、Codex 和 Atlas。

Because, like, imagine that they feel like they have to answer for OpenAI's super app comes ChatGPT's super app coming out, and it has you know, from what's being been reported, it has ChatGPT baked in.

它把这三样都整合在一起了。

It has Codex built in, and it has Atlas built in.

那谷歌要是想用 Gemini、Chrome 和 AntiGravity 来应对，可这三个项目分属完全不同的大团队，尤其是 Chrome，过去根本没和 AI 团队紧密配合过。

So if Google feels like they have to answer that with something with Gemini, Chrome, and AntiGravity, and those are three totally disparate huge teams working on these things, certainly Chrome, which has not historically linked in because linked into the AI group.

我知道，咱们之前已经聊过这个了。

I know, again, we talked about it earlier.

他们把Gemini直接整合进去了。

They Gemini baked into it.

但即便如此，感觉还是像后来加上的。

But even now, it sort of feels tacked on.

它不像一个原生的AI产品。

It feels like it's not an AI native product.

如果他们真想推出一个能应对超级应用挑战的原生AI产品，他们能做到吗？

And if they have to sort of make it an AI native product in order to meet the moment with regard to the super app question, like, can they really do that?

这对他们来说要比那些更小、更灵活的团队难得多，比如苹果或者其他一些公司，它们的架构本来就更贴近AI思维。

And it's going to be It's way harder than it will be for any of those much smaller, more nimble teams to do it or who are more oriented in the way that sort of Apple is or some other companies.

我觉得Google要完成这个转变，难度会非常大。

I do think that it's going to be very, very hard for Google to do that.

这反而给了我们竞争的希望。

And that's a good reason for hope for how you compete.

因为当你退一步看，作为OpenAI，面对Google这样的对手——它是一家市值超过四万亿美元、拥有数十万员工、掌握全部云工程、云资源、CPU算力等一切资源的巨头。

Because again, when you take a step back and you're OpenAI and you're looking at that landscape and you see Google, and Google is a $4,000,000,000,000 plus company, and they have hundreds of thousands of employees, and they have all of the cloud engineering, all the cloud capacity and CPUs and everything that they need.

你一看这个，心里就琢磨：我怎么跟这种巨头竞争？

You look at that and say, How can I possibly compete with this?

我只是一个初创公司。

I'm a startup.

我融的钱比历史上任何一家公司都多，可我怎么跟一家四万亿、还拥有所有先天优势的公司斗？

I've raised more money than anyone's ever raised in history, but how am I going to compete with a $4,000,000,000,000 company that already has all these inherent advantages?

这才是真正的打法。

And that's how you do it.

你要用他们的优势来反制他们，因为他们被历史包袱拖着，没法像你这么灵活、这么快地整合。

You use their strengths against them as a weakness, whereas they can't integrate as well and as quickly as you can because they have all this legacy stuff.

这就是微软这类巨头被颠覆的原因，诸如此类。

That's how Microsoft's of the world get disrupted and yada yada.

我们再回头说说Gmail的例子，假设你是个超级应用，对吧？

Just to go back to the Gmail example, if you are, let's say you're a super app, right?

那如果ChatGPT、Codex和Atlas合在一起，假设OpenAI拥有Gmail，把Gmail当成他们自己的产品之一。

And so with ChatGPT, Codex and Atlas together, Let's say you had, let's say OpenAI had Gmail, let's say Gmail was one of their products.

为了让这个效果最好，你希望 Gmail 慢慢淡出，藏到后台去，让这些消息都出现在 ChatGPT 里。

For this to work the best, you want Gmail to almost fall by the wayside to disappear into the background and for these messages to be surfaced in ChatGPT.

如果你负责 Gmail 这个产品线，那确实很难受。

And if you are, let's say you are responsible for the Gmail product area That is very hard for you.

是的。

Yeah.

你是想让我为了大局，主动退到一边？

You want me to disappear myself for the greater good?

在大公司里，这种事真的很难办。

You know, it's very difficult to in a corporation, that is tough.

我同意，你说得一点都没错。

I and I think you're exactly right.

说到邮件的未来，用你举的例子来说，我觉得 AI 时代邮件的终极目标，就是我们根本不用再天天盯着它了。

Because when I think of, like, the future of email, you know, to use your example exactly, it's like I believe that the success state of the future of email in AI is that we're not going to have to use it all the time, obviously.

相反，它会变成我们的助手之间互相发消息，而我们只看到一个待办清单，比如：嗯，这事已经处理了。

And instead, it becomes like our agents basically emailing each other and us getting these to do list app things where it's like, yeah, M.

G.

G.

亚历克斯的智能代理互相发了邮件，我们正安排时间协调下一期播客。

And Alex emailed their agents emailed one another, and we're setting up a time to coordinate the next podcast.

你想要X、Y还是Z的时间？

And do you want X, Y, or Z time?

点一下按钮，直接选就行。

And just hit a button select that.

然后它会在后台自动发邮件。

And then it does the emails behind the scenes.

你和我以后再也不用打开Gmail了。

And you and I never open Gmail again.

再说回你刚才说的，Gmail的产品经理，他们到底在干嘛？这听起来确实不太妙。

And again, to your point, the PM for Gmail, like, what are they doing in Yeah, that doesn't seem too great.

所以，当他们推出这个新功能时——虽然还没完全准备好——据说会有一个智能代理版本的Gmail。从他们展示的截图来看，界面大概就是一些高层次的待办事项之类的东西。

And so, you know, when they're rolling out this new one of the things that's supposedly coming, but again, not quite ready, is this agentic version of Gmail where it's like a from the screenshots that they've shared and whatnot, it looks like, you know, yeah, the high level like to dos and things like that.

所以他们正在努力适应我们所说的这种场景。

And so they're trying to accommodate for that world that we're talking about.

但归根结底，真正的解决方案还是别打开 Gmail 本身。

But again, the real ultimate answer is, again, not to open Gmail itself.

这其中确实存在一种矛盾。

And There's a there's a tension there for sure.

没错。

That's right.

对。

Yeah.

你刚才说他们想搞这些待办事项，我就在想，这根本就不是 Gmail 应该干的事。

When you were saying, oh, they're trying to do these to dos, it's like, I'm thinking, but it just doesn't belong there.

这些事该归 Gemini 管。

It belongs in Gemini.

明白了。

Alright.

咱们先休息一下，广告后回来聊聊iPhone折叠屏，还有Meta最近在搞什么。

Let's take a break and come back and talk about the iPhone Fold and what's going on at Meta right after this.

每到夏天，我的穿衣风格都会变。

Summer always changes how I get dressed.

我想要轻盈、舒适，但又不失得体的单品。

I want pieces that feel lighter and more comfortable but still put together.

这时候就轮到Kintz出场了。

That's where Kintz comes in.

他们专注做高品质的基础款，用透气的亚麻和柔软的有机棉，都是你穿了就会反复回购的那种。

They focus on well made essentials and breathable linen and soft organic cotton, the kind of basics you will keep coming back to.

Kinz的所有单品价格比同类品牌低50%到80%，因为他们直接跟道德工厂合作，省掉中间商，你付的钱是品质，不是品牌溢价。

Everything at Kinz is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands because they work directly with ethical factories, cutting out the middleman, so you're paying for quality, not brand markup.

我自己在空调房和户外高温之间来回穿梭时，Kinz的轻薄拉链卫衣简直改变了我的夏天。

Personally, while I'm moving between air conditioning and summer heat, a lightweight zip down sweatshirt from Kinz has been a life changer.

提升你的夏日衣橱。

Elevate your summer wardrobe.

前往 kinz.com/bigtech，享受免费配送和365天无理由退换。

Go to kinz.com/bigtech for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns.

现在加拿大地区也已上线。

Now available in Canada too.

访问 quince.com/bigtech，享受免费配送和365天退换服务。

That's quince.com/bigtech for free shipping and three hundred sixty five day returns.

kinz.com/bigtech。

Kinz.com/bigtech.

大多数管理者都知道工作本该怎样开展，但说到实际日常中跨工具、跨团队、跨交接的具体执行，他们大多只是在猜。

Most leaders know how work is supposed to happen, but when it comes to how it actually gets done day to day across tools, teams, and handoffs, they're mostly guessing.

Scribe Optimize 正是为解决这个问题而打造的。

That's exactly the problem Scribe Optimize was built to solve.

它已被超过八万家企业信赖，包括近一半的《财富》500强公司，能实时展现员工在各类授权业务应用中的真实工作流程，无需访谈、无需手动绘制流程图，也不增加团队负担。

Trusted by over 80,000 enterprises, including nearly half of the Fortune 500, it gives leaders a live view into how work is really happening across approved business apps without interviews, manual process mapping, or extra effort from the team.

由于它持续分析真实的工作流活动，所以洞察始终是最新的，哪怕流程一有变动，信息也不会过时。

And because it's continuously analyzing real workflow activity, the insights stay current instead of going stale the moment a process changes.

你可以清楚看到哪些工作流程在进行，时间都花在了哪里，以及用到了哪些工具。

You can see which workflows are happening, where time is going, and which tools are involved.

它能自动找出最突出的问题，解释原因，甚至给出解决方案，并估算能节省多少时间。

It automatically surfaces top issues, explains why they're happening, and even recommends ways to fix them with estimated time savings.

更重要的是，它从设计之初就充分考虑了隐私保护。

And importantly, it's built with privacy in mind.

只有管理员批准的业务应用中的活动才会被记录，而且用户数据默认都会匿名处理。

So activities only captured in admin approved business apps, and user level data is anonymized by default.

过去需要几个月才能搞清楚的情况，现在随时都能看得一清二楚。

The kind of visibility that used to take months, now it's just always on.

如果你不想再猜来猜去，想真正看清现状，就去 scribe.how/bigtech 看看吧。

If you're ready to stop guessing and start seeing, visit scribe.how/bigtech.

网址是 scribe.how/bigtech。

That's scribe.how/bigtech.

我们又回到《大科技播客》，今天和 M 一起。

And we're back here on big technology podcast with M.

G.

G.

西格勒，来自Spyglass。

Siegler of Spyglass.

你可以访问 spyglass.org，订阅他们的通讯。

You can go to spyglass.org, sign up for the newsletter.

我强烈推荐。

I highly recommend it.

这是我最喜爱的科技资讯来源之一。

One of my favorite reads in the tech world.

我相信这个月的WWDC大会，我们都会紧盯Spyglass的动态。

And I'm sure we're gonna all be glued to Spyglass for the WWDC coming up this month.

说起来挺有意思，你懂的，我很好奇最大的消息会不会是Siri。

You it's kind of funny the way that you're you know, obviously, I wonder the big news will be Siri.

他们可能会提前透露折叠屏iPhone的消息。

They may they may preview the iPhone fold.

他们可能会提前展示那款眼镜。

They may preview the glasses.

现在还说不准。

It's sort of up in the air.

马上要来一位新CEO，我们可能会经常见到或听到他。

We're gonna have a new CEO that's incoming, right, that we're gonna probably hear from a lot or a little.

这也许是蒂姆·库克的谢幕之作。

Maybe it's Tim Cook's last hurrah.

也可能是特纳的专场秀。

Maybe it's the Turner show.

WWDC相关的变数实在太多了。

So many variables around WWDC.

不过，咱们还是聊聊iPhone折叠屏吧，这才是我最期待的。

But, anyway, let's talk about the iPhone Fold because that to me is the thing that I'm most excited for.

你把它比作iPhone的黑莓时刻，确实如此。如果你在听音频，得注意了——这个折叠方式不是从垂直轴展开的手机。

You call it the iPhone's BlackBerry moment in that it's gonna be so but for folks, if you're thinking about this and if you're on audio, the way that we need to describe this fold is it's not a a phone that sort of folds out from a vertical axis.

对吧？

Right?

这是一款横向折叠的手机，有点像老式的翻盖手机。

It's a phone that folds horizontally, kind of like an old flip phone.

这样可能打字会更方便，因为你不用再那么小心翼翼地拿着，生怕它倒下来——这正是你之前在故事里提到的问题，MG。

And that might make it easier to type because it won't you won't have to hold it so, you know, so uniquely to make sure it doesn't fall over, which is what you pointed out in your, in your story, MG.

如果真是长这样，我得说实话，

I I'm if that's the way that it looks like, I'll be honest.

我有点震惊。

I'm a little bit stunned.

对我来说，纵向展开的优势一直都很明显。

The the folding out on the vertical axis to me is always the the benefit here.

这样能获得更大的屏幕来看视频，但苹果似乎并不打算走这条路。

So you can watch things with, you know, a bigger screen, but Apple doesn't seem to be going that way.

说说看

Talk through

这里面其实有几点。

the So there's a few things in there.

首先，如果它还是主打横向折叠，我一点都不意外。

First, I wouldn't be shocked if it's still sort of marketed that it folds out horizontally, not not vertically.

它并不是那种翻盖手机的样子。

So it's not like the a flip phone.

更像是一种对折设计。

It's more like a fold.

你提到的那种怪异感，主要是因为它比现在市面上的折叠屏手机短太多了。

The weirdness that you're alluding to is basically because it's so short relative to the current, like, foldable phones.

我用的是Pixel Fold，说实话。

So I have a Pixel Fold, which is yeah.

当它合起来的时候，大小跟普通智能手机差不多，就像现在iPhone那样。

Just when it's folded together, it looks like sort of the regular size of a regular, smartphone that you would normally see, like the iPhone looks right now.

根据从亚洲传出来的各种渲染图和爆料，这款新折叠屏手机看起来会特别短胖，简直像老式剃须刀一样，一掰就开。

This new Fold, by all the mocks that we've seen coming out of Asia and everything else and all the leaks, it seems like it will be this short and squat little thing that looks like it should flip open like an old razor and whatnot.

当然了，现在确实有那种剃须刀式设计的手机，我觉得三星就出过类似的产品。

And obviously, there is a razor that does that now, and I think Samsung makes a version that does that.

但我还是觉得，苹果大概率会坚持让这款手机像书本一样展开，哪怕它又短又胖，用起来可能有点别扭。

But I do think Apple will probably still align it around folding out more book style, even though it's short and fat, even though it might be awkward.

这其实才是最关键的地方，对吧？

But that's like that's the biggest thing about this, right?

现在看来，他们正好有个好机会，去真正开创这种新设备的独特使用场景。

It seems like they have a good moment to sort of try to own a new these new sort of use cases for this new type of device.

而不是简单地把小屏幕变大，或者把大屏幕变小。

That's not simply making a big, you know, a smaller screen and making it a bigger screen.

如果真能设计出一些在折叠状态下也能用的功能——这正是我文章里提到的，比如它比现在主流手机更厚一点，反而特别适合打字，毕竟现在的手机太薄了，对习惯拇指打字的人来说不太友好。

If there's actual like ways to use the device when it's folded, and this is what I talk about in my piece, where it feels like it's actually a great typing device because it's a little bit fatter than what the current phone is, which is maybe a little bit too thin for people who are used to sort of thumb typing.

你懂的。

You know?

再说回以前的黑莓手机，那时候机身普遍更宽一些，用起来特别适合拇指打字，后来那种‘ CrackBerry ’拇指文化不就流行起来了嘛。

And and, again, I I allude back to the old BlackBerry days where those were a little bit fatter, for lack of a better phrase, a little bit wider, and so they were a little bit more conducive to that thumb typing, which obviously became a thing and CrackBerry thumb and all that sort of stuff.

所以，有可能我们会回到那种用法，因为这种设备在折叠起来的时候打字体验更好。

And so, like, there's a world in which we maybe go back to that because this device is a little bit better for typing when it's folded up like that.

然后你把它展开，就像你提到的，用来看视频、玩游戏，或者做其他类型的内容。

And then you unfold it to either do, like you're talking about, watch videos and and do other sort of gaming and and other content that way.

也可能适合真正的工作场景，比如想同时打开两个应用之类的功能。

And maybe it's for quote unquote real work if you want to have like two apps side by side and things of that nature.

但关键问题是，他们该怎么把这套体验真正做好。

But it's very big question of like how they get this working.

我听说一些报道说，展开后界面可能会有点像 iPad mini，但不会是完整的 iPadOS，而会是增强版的 iOS，功能上更丰富一些。

I think some of the reports are talking about that when it's unfolded, it will look a little bit more like maybe an iPad mini interface, but it won't be exactly iPadOS, but it will be souped up version of iOS in terms of what it can showcase it's like that.

我觉得他们可能会加入更多小部件之类的东西，不只是简单地把应用图标排满屏幕，那样太无聊了。

And I would imagine that sort of like widgets and other things that are that are more than just the typical, you know, laid out apps on a screen because that would be sort of boring.

这就让我想到，既然苹果决定要做这个，而且明显已经在做了，那他们只会做，或者至少会宣传说，只有当他们能真正做出点不一样的东西时才会推出——不是简单地把 iPhone 换个尺寸。

And then that just brings me back to the notion of, like, think if Apple is going to do this, and obviously they're doing it, I think that they would only do it or at least frame it that they would only do it if they could really do something different with it that's not just another form fact the same iPhone, but another form factor of it.

我觉得他们想打造的是一种全新的设备类型，一种不一样的 iPhone，能带来全新的使用场景。

I think that they want it to be sort of a newer type of device, a different style of of iPhone where it brings different use cases with it.

如果他们真能做成，那可就说不准了。

Now if they can pull that off, who knows?

我的意思是，还没人真正见过这东西。

I mean, again, no one's actually seen this.

我们只见过它的模型。

We've seen dummy units of it.

我们看过它的外观。

We've seen what it looks like.

我觉得在WWDC上不会看到它。

I do not think we're gonna see it at WWDC.

我觉得他们会等到秋天再发布。

I think that they will wait for the fall to do it.

我觉得WWDC期间，他们得忙活确保这次Siri真能正常工作。

I think that, yeah, WWDC, they'll have their hands full with making sure Siri is is right this time.

明白了。

So okay.

所以这事儿差不多也说到WWDC了。

So that that's sort of getting to WWDC.

你知道，咱们俩都不觉得会看到折叠屏的预览。

You know, we neither of us expect the preview of the fold.

我觉得这可能是苹果产品线里最受期待的一款了。

I think there's just, like, that's the the product with the most excitement in the Apple lineup.

对。

Yeah.

不过我们可能会看到Siri的更新发布。

But we might see a Siri rollout.

你觉得会提前亮相带摄像头的AirPods吗？

We might see do you think we'll see a preview of AirPods with cameras?

你觉得会看到智能眼镜的预览吗？

Do you think we'll see a preview of glasses?

我的意思是，这次他们确实压力很大，必须把Siri做好，但另一方面，也有可能WWDC又是个过渡年，比如A系列芯片还没完全准备好。

I mean, is this gonna be so so there's a lot of pressure for them to deliver this updated Siri this time, but part of it also feels like there is a chance that it can just be, like, another transitional year of WWDC where, like, the a b series not completely ready.

这方面已经推迟了。

There've been delays on that front.

马上要交接CEO了。

There's gonna be the CEO transfer.

这难道只是在庆祝苹果的历史吗？

Is it just like a celebration of, you know, of of the, you know, Apple's history?

没错。

Right.

还有传承。

And and Legacy.

是啊。

Yeah.

产品方面没什么新东西。

And not much on the product front.

你觉得

What do

你觉得呢？

you think?

我觉得大家现在谈起这个，可能会觉得没什么特别的。

Guess would be that it's more that you would that talking about it now, you would feel underwhelmed.

我觉得这会非常直接明了。

I think that it will be pretty straightforward.

我觉得他们会展示一下新的Siri。

I think that they'll, you know, show off the new Siri.

我很想知道他们会怎么讲，因为很多报道说他们不想过分强调谷歌和Gemini的部分，但你猜他们其实还是想突出这些，好让大家相信这次他们真能做好。

I it's curious how they'll talk about it if, you know, a lot of reports suggested that they won't wanna play up the Google element and the Gemini element too much, but you presume that they sort of wanna play it up so that people trust that, you know, they're gonna do it right this time.

所以他们怎么定位这个功能，挺有意思的。

So how they brand that will be interesting.

如果他们展出什么新奇的硬件，我会很惊讶。

I would be shocked if they show off any sort of newfangled hardware.

我觉得他们可能会展示一款新版的HomePod，能支持这个功能。

I think that there's a chance that they show off maybe like a new home pod that's capable of doing it.

有报道称，这些东西其实早就开始研发了，也早就准备好了。

There's reports that those have been in the works for a while and been ready for a while.

他们只是在等人工智能跟上步伐，你知道的，等AI真正成熟。

They've just been waiting on AI, you know, the AI to sort of catch up.

所以也许他们会用某种方式来实现。

And so maybe there's ways that they do that.

但我认为他们更可能先在iPhone上展示一些新的使用场景，比如视觉智能——这功能他们早就有了，但这次终于能真正跑得顺了。

But I think that they'll probably show off the new use cases just on an iPhone and show off things like visual intelligence, which they've had for some time, but sort of a version that's actually working well this time and showing off

想想看吧。

Imagine that.

这次的Genmoji会更好看，还有图像生成工具，这次也会有明显提升。

Genmoji that looks better this time and whatever and image playgrounds that looks better this time.

还有那个著名的‘接妈妈从机场回家’的场景，这次他们真能办到吗？能成功吗？

And and, again, the the famous getting mom home from the airport, like, will they actually be able to get her home this time and pull it off?

天哪。

Oh my god.

如果他们两年后又拿出Genmoji和接妈妈从机场这种功能，肯定要被骂惨了。

They're gonna get trashed if they if they come out and they give you Genmoji and getting mom back from the airport again two years later.

我真的很难相信他们不会展示任何新东西，尤其是那副新眼镜。

I just I don't I have a hard time they're not gonna show off anything that's like they're not gonna show off the new glasses.

他们不可能不展示折叠屏设备。

They're not gonna show off the fold.

AirPods可能是最接近AI设备的东西了，也最有可能已经准备好了。

The AirPods, like, are maybe the closest, you know, thing that we have to an AI device that's likely ready more ready to roll.

如果他们真这么做了，我才会觉得惊讶。

I I'd just be shocked if they do that.

我觉得他们会直截了当地说：这次是我们重新来过的AI发布会，这一次我们真的做对了。

I think that they're gonna keep it pretty straightforward and say like, hey, this is sort of our do over AI event, and this time we got it right.

所以你们应该高兴，愿意用这些功能，也该感到兴奋。

And therefore, you should be happy, like, to use all these things and get excited.

也许他们还会顺带提一句：这些东西比你们想象的要早很多就能用上。

And maybe throw out a bone and say like, Hey, it's going be ready sooner than you're expecting.

你其实不用非等到秋天。

You don't necessarily have to wait for the fall.

我们会在夏末推出测试版，到时候你们都可以试用。

We'll have it in beta in the late summer so all of you guys can test it out.

根据很多说法，尤其是佳明那边，这个版本的iOS并不会有多大变化，不会是那种翻天覆地的更新。

Because by a lot of accounts like Garmin in particular, this version of iOS is not gonna be totally different, you know, and not not a big sweeping change.

对吧？

Right?

主要还是围绕Siri展开。

It'll largely be predicated around Siri again.

所以也许它会比预期早一点上线。

And so, maybe it'll be ready to roll a little bit early.

说不定这就是个意外的惊喜。

Maybe that's a surprise or something like that.

我的意思是，他们的主打卖点是Siri，现在它几乎能用了，比以往任何时候都更接近实用？

I mean, like, what the the pitch is Siri that almost works now more now more almost than ever?

我觉得他们推出的会比那更精致一些。

I think I think they'll have something a little more a little more elegant than that.

不过说实话，如果一个月后咱们再聊，发现情况跟谷歌差不多，我也不觉得意外。

But but, yeah, I mean, I wouldn't be shocked if if you and I are catching up in a month and and sort of we're talking about, like, similarly to Google's.

对吧？

Right?

因为说到底，这种大型发布会和展示活动，在AI时代还合不合适呢？

Because, again, it's sort of the same idea of our do these big events, showcase events, make sense in the age of AI?

对吧？

Right?

毕竟AI的发展节奏跟产品发布完全不是一回事。

Because AI just rolls at a different cadence than what product announcements do.

值得一提的是，WWDC 本来就是给开发者办的大会。

And to Apple's credit, WWDC was always meant to be a developer conference.

虽然这些年慢慢变得越来越面向普通用户，但它毕竟不是iPhone的发布活动。

It sort of has morphed into this more consumer facing thing over time, but it's not the iPhone event.

它本来就没打算完全面向普通消费者。

It's not meant to be fully consumer oriented.

重点会放在API上。

It's going to be about APIs.

还会涉及很多其他方面。

It's going to be about all these different things.

我的意思是，有个很大的变数。

I mean, the big thing, here's a big wild card.

要是他们做了类似这样的事呢？

What if they did something like this?

要是你所说的过渡，其实是从库克时代转向图尔努斯时代，他想打下基础，而库克想为他铺好路呢？

What if with the transition that you're talking about is we're moving away from the Cook era and into the Tournus era and he wants to set the stage and Cook wants to set him up well?

要是他们在应用商店上宣布重大调整，比如改变抽成比例呢？

What if they make a big announcement around the App Store and changing the fee structure?

那可就炸了，对吧？

Like, that would bring down the house, right?

要是他们真能彻底打破这些壁垒，把抽成从七三改成八二，甚至八五比一五，提前化解眼下这些法律纠纷，那该多好。

Like, if they were able to actually finally change, you know, tear down those walls as it were and change the, you know, the cuts, change it from, say, seventythirty to eightytwenty or 80 fivefifteen even, and make that sort of get ahead of some of these legal battles that they're in right now.

对吧？

Right?

他们这么做可不是出于什么慷慨大方。

It's not like fully magnanimous that they would be doing this.

背后肯定还有别的原因。

There's other reasons why they would do it.

但我觉得，哪怕他们在AI或新品方面没什么可说的，只要搞出这种动作，也能让整个发布会看起来特别有诚意。

But I feel like something like that could be perceived, at least make the perception of such a conference good, even if they don't have to you know, they don't have that much to talk about from an AI perspective, let alone a new device perspective.

没错。

Yeah.

我想知道股市会怎么反应，毕竟这直接冲击他们的服务业务收入。

I wonder what the stock market would do because that would take a hit directly from the services business.

是啊。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

但你想想，当萨提亚·纳德拉刚接手微软的时候。

But again, think back to when Satya Nadella took over at Microsoft.

对吧？

Right?

我们最早推出的一项举措就是 Office for iPad。

One of the first things we did introduced I Office for iPad.

现在呢，

Now there

之前在鲍尔默时代，这事儿被说得一无是处，但纳德拉却抓住机会把它推出来，定下了他任内整体的基调——虽然这么说有点夸张，但确实如此。

was talk that that had been the worst royale under Balmer, but it was Nadella's moment to make it put it out there and sort of set the tenor of how his administration, for lack of a better phrase, would go from there.

那如果库克把接力棒交给特恩斯，为苹果未来十年、十五年定下新方向呢？

And so what if, you know, Cook handing off to Ternus, setting a new stage for the next ten, fifteen years of Apple?

是的

Yeah.

下个月我们有太多内容可以聊了，到时候可以好好复盘一下。

That that'll be we'll have so much to talk about next month because we can recap it.

这明显是个非常重要的时刻。

But, clearly, like, a lot a big moment.

这次的WWDC肯定会是一个过渡性的大会。

It will be a transitional WWDC.

关键在于，这个过渡会有多大。

The question is how big the transition will be.

当然，是从库克到特恩斯的交接，但还有从自研Siri转向Gemini Siri的转变。

Of course, Cook to Ternus, but also, you know, home built Siri to Gemini Siri.

这真的会很有趣。

It'll be really interesting.

好的。

Alright.

在结束之前，咱们聊聊Meta那边的情况吧，你提到他们最近各种事都跟‘一团乱’挂钩，比如品牌方面。

Before we go, let's talk a little bit about what's going on at Meta, where, like, the word mess has been associated with many things that they're doing from branding, you pointed out.

来，大伙儿念一念这段话。

Let's just read it, folks.

如果你想订阅Meta的服务，现在可以选WhatsApp Plus，每月2.99美元；Facebook Plus，3.99美元；Instagram Plus，也是3.99美元；还有Meta One Plus，7.99美元；Meta One Essential，14.99美元；Meta One Premium，19.99美元；最高档的Meta One Advanced，要49.99美元。

If you wanna, you know, do a meta subscription, you can subscribe to WhatsApp Plus for $2.99, Facebook Plus for $3.99, Instagram Plus for $3.99, Meta One Plus for $7.99, Meta One Essential for $14.99, Meta One Premium for $19.99, and Meta One Advanced for $49.99.

这明显是营销上的操作。

That's marketing in particular.

你在Spyglass里提到过这一点。

You call this out in Spyglass.

MG。

MG.

我的意思是，这正是我想展开聊聊Meta的地方。

I mean, it it does you know, this is where I wanted to to to take our discussion about Meta.

你写过，咱们还没到微软当年那种地步，但已经很接近了。

You wrote, we're not quite in Microsoft in territory, but we're close.

也许Meta干脆就专心做广告算了。

Maybe Meta should just stick with ads.

产品方向没什么新意，现在又搞起订阅服务，你说这分明是到了晚期阶段，只能从用户身上榨钱了。

And, you know, between sort of the uninspired product direction and now subscriptions, which you say, okay, this is what you do when you're late stage and you need to, like, make the profit out of your users.

还有裁员的事，公司内部士气低落，大家都心知肚明。

And these layoffs where, you know, people have have, you know, within the company, the morale is terrible.

现在Meta的状况看起来真不怎么样。

State of Meta looks kind of rough right now.

确实如此。

It does.

而且每次一出负面新闻，尤其是文化层面的批评，他们总是拼命否认，反而让人觉得虚伪。

And, you know, also not helped by the fact that every time there's some sort of negative story, certain certainly culturally, you know, the negative report, they are so adamant about pushing back against it that it just feels disingenuous.

毕竟是一家大公司，不可能事事顺心。

Obviously, are not It's a big company.

总会有起起落落的时候。

Things are not always going be hunky dory.

就像我们之前说的，各大公司内部不同派系之间肯定会爆发地盘之争，毕竟他们的发展方向和优先级都不太一样。

There's going to be turf disputes like we talked about earlier between big factions of companies that are sort of moving in different directions and maybe have different priorities.

可他们偏偏不承认这些问题，还装作一切都很顺利，这简直有点让人觉得在否认现实。

And so not to acknowledge that and pretend like everything's going fine and sort of a little bit gaslighty.

这种态度只会让他们的整体形象变得更糟。

That doesn't help their whole, I think, vibe going on right now.

话说回来，他们确实发布了首批新模型的早期版本。

And look, they released the first new models, early versions of them.

他们自己也坦承，这些模型离行业前沿还有距离。

They're first to admit that they're not quite at the frontier yet.

所以跟谷歌一样，他们只能把希望寄托在未来的版本上。

And so sort of like Google, they're going to promise those down the road.

对吧？

Right?

可他们到底要花多久才能真正追上呢？

And how long does it take them to get there?

咱们走着瞧吧。

We'll see.

他们能靠编程赶上来吗？

And do they get there with coding?

咱们走着瞧吧。

We'll see.

从我们之前讨论的角度来看，他们在这一块似乎也落下了。

It seems like they're behind there as well to our earlier discussion.

不过说到定价，你刚才提到了他们各种不同的套餐等级。

But yeah, this whole pricing thing, you brought up just the various different levels of the tiers.

你列出了这么多，其实每一项的功能都不一样，这可不是单纯按AI能力分层，而是按产品线分层。

But the fact that you named all of those and almost all those things do different things, it's not like they're all just for different AI tiers, they're all just for different product tiers.

每个套餐到底提供什么，实在太混乱了，我真想不通他们为什么要这么推出，除非像你之前说的，他们确实承受着来自高层的压力，必须转向更可持续的商业模式——现在他们的收入恐怕还有98%都靠广告。

It's so confusing in terms of what each tier offers you that I don't really understand why they would roll it out that way other than to your earlier point, I do think that they are under some pressure to, certainly from the highest level to move towards a sort of a more sustainable model for their business, which is not Right now, I think it's still 98% predicated around ads.

如果你觉得我们已经站在顶峰了，那你也知道，大家总爱说Facebook、这些平台都到顶了，结果它们还是不断增长。

And if you believe that we're sort of at like at the top and everyone famously has always predicted, like, you know, we're at the top of Facebook and we're at the top of all these services and then they just keep growing.

但现实是，他们在西方市场已经不再增长了。

But the reality is like they're not really growing anymore in Western markets.

也许在世界某些角落还有增长，但在那些他们原本靠广告模式能高效变现的地方，增长已经停滞了。

Maybe they're growing in some, some pockets of different parts of the world, but they're not growing in the place that they feel like they can monetize as effectively with the ad product that they've been doing.

再加上他们巨额的资本支出，尤其是投在元宇宙上的那些钱——结果如何还不好说——感觉他们确实面临压力，必须尽快找到新的盈利模式。

And so that plus all the spend, famous CapEx spend that they're doing, all the spend that they obviously spent on the metaverse, which may or may not end up coming to anything, it feels like that they're probably under some pressure to figure out these new models.

扎克伯格这周甚至上一周又上了新闻，基本上承认了，如果有必要，他们完全可以推出自己的云服务。

Zuckerberg, even this week or this past week was in the news again saying, like basically acknowledging that with all the CapEx spend, if they need to, they can roll out a cloud, right?

他们可以推出一个供其他企业使用的云平台。

They can roll out a cloud that other businesses can use.

我觉得这正是我们看到马斯克和SpaceX在IPO前的做法带来的直接结果。

And I think that's a direct result of what we saw with Elon Musk and SpaceX of leading up to the SpaceX IPO.

突然之间，大家都说：哦，他们成了一家云服务商。

It's all of a sudden, oh, they're a Neo Cloud.

这倒是个不错的方向。

That's great.

别担心XAI亏了多少钱，现在它已经成了Anthropic和Cursor的云平台了。

Like, don't worry about how much money XAI is losing because it's just a Neo Cloud now for Anthropic and for Cursor.

这事儿挺好的。

And this is great.

这些公司现在都是真正的增长型业务了。

Like, these are great growth businesses now.

你能想象吗？Meta也可能因为之前的大笔投入，转型成一个云服务平台？

And so can you imagine Meta becomes like a Neo Cloud business based off of all the CapEx spend that they're doing?

我当然可以拿这个开玩笑，但如果真到了需要的时候，他们一年后对华尔街说：我们开始更谨慎地控制开支了，得想办法在广告之外赚钱——毕竟AI能帮上忙，但回报率还是比不上同行们用资本支出换来的收益——我一点都不会觉得意外。

And like, I could joke about that, but I wouldn't put it fully past them if they need to and say a year from now, you know, suggest to Wall Street like, Look, we're being a little bit more prudent with how we're trying to do the spend and we want to bring money in beyond just the advertising layer, which again, AI is helpful with, but it's not the same return that the other peer group is seeing with their CapEx spend.

明白了。

Okay.

在结束前，我还想问一件事。

One more thing before we go.

你还能再给一分钟左右吗？

Do you have, like, another minute or two?

是的

Yeah.

对

Yeah.

接着说

Keep going.

好

Okay.

我们正在录新闻的时候，新闻正好出来了，真有意思

Love it when news breaks while we're recording news.

哦，什么

Oh, what

啊？

is it?

Anthropic已经提交了上市申请

Anthropic has filed to go public.

真的吗？

Really?

哇。

Wow.

今天，Anthropic向美国证券交易委员会机密提交了关于拟议普通股首次公开募股的S-1形式初步注册声明。

Today, Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on form s one to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for proposed initial public offering of our common stock.

所以看起来，他们比OpenAI抢先一步了。

So they have now it looks like they've jumped the gun on OpenAI.

我正想说，上周不是有报道说，正好赶在SpaceX提交S-1之前吗？

I was gonna say, so there was the report last week, right, that that, and it was right ahead of SpaceX filing their S1.

OpenAI似乎有意透露他们即将提交，这显然不是巧合。

It seemed very not coincidental that OpenAI let it perhaps leak out that they would be filing soon.

有报道提到，原本预计是上周五。

And one of the reports has suggested that it would be last Friday.

据我们所知，那件事并没有发生，至少没有泄露出来。

As far as we know, that didn't happen or at least it never leaked out.

显然，他们也会选择保密提交。

Obviously, they would file confidentially too.

所以要么是他们提交了但没人知道，要么就是Anthropic抢在他们前面搞了个突袭，这可就太疯狂了，因为我们之前聊过这个话题。

So either they filed and no one found out about it or Anthropic just pulled a quick one on them and got out ahead of them, which would be wild because we've talked about this before.

如果Anthropic在OpenAI之前上市，OpenAI在公开上市方面就会面临很大的麻烦，毕竟我们之前还讨论过，哪怕只是假设他们的盈利状况会更好，对吧？

If OpenAI goes out If Anthropic goes out before OpenAI does, OpenAI is in a lot of trouble from a public listing perspective just because We even talked about this when it was still just the notion that they would have a better bottom line, right?

比如，他们不会像OpenAI那样烧钱烧那么久，而且能更快实现盈利。

Like that they wouldn't be burning money for as long as OpenAI would and they would get to profitability quicker.

现在的消息是，Anthropic 至少在某种程度上已经实现盈利了，因为他们看到了疯狂的增长。

Now the reports are that Anthropic has already turned, at least at some level perhaps, dipped into profitability because of just the crazy growth that they're seeing.

如果他们现在的营收增长更快，估值也更高，那 OpenAI 想趁此机会上市，叙事上就会非常被动，简直是噩梦。

And if they're now growing faster at the top line and have a higher valuation, this is going to be a narrative nightmare for OpenAI to go to try to also go public in.

这几乎让我想起出版界的那些套路，比如如果你有一本

This almost reminds me of, like, the book publishing games where if you have

书，它

a book that's

比别人提前一步，是啊。

ahead of another similar to someone else's, Yep.

你可能会提前公布出版日期，好腾出空间，但他们也可能直到准备好了才公开。

You might announce your publication date to sort of clear the deck, but they also might, you know, keep theirs secret until they're ready.

如果OpenAI也已经提交了申请，我一点都不觉得意外。

And, I wouldn't be totally stunned if OpenAI has also filed

现在他们得把它公开了。

and now let's it

公布出去。

out there.

而且

And

当然，他们现在必须把它公开了。

now they would have to, of course, put it out there.

别担心。

Don't worry.

我们周五提交的。

We filed on Friday.

我们比他们早了两天，或者差不多吧。

We're ahead of them by two days or whatever.

这事挺可笑的，因为提交申请其实是保密的。

The silly thing about this is, of course, like, by filing you know this is is filing confidentially.

你不一定非得公开出来。

You don't necessarily have to go out.

你只是先把流程启动起来，这样以后要是想公开，随时都有这个选择。

You're just like you're basically putting the wheels in motion so that if you want to, you can have that optionality.

上周我看到爆料说OpenAI也这么做了，我觉得一方面是为了造势——毕竟他们不会放过任何能打压埃隆、那个老对手的机会，想趁机抢点风头或热度。

And when I saw that leak last week about OpenAI doing that, I thought it was both for optics because obviously they would take any chance they can get against going after Elon, their their foil, you know, to try to take some steal some momentum or just some buzz out of that out of those sales.

另一方面，这也让他们保有随时对Anthropic出手的余地。

But it also gives them the optionality to go out if they feel like they needed to against Anthropic.

但这并不意味着他们真的会这么做。

That doesn't necessarily means that they would.

我觉得现在Anthropic这么做，反而给它们施加了巨大压力，必须得赶紧公开，不然它们会担心Anthropic随时可能抢先一步。

And I feel like Anthropic doing it now, though, puts so much pressure on them to actually have to do it because now they're gonna just be afraid that if they don't go out, Anthropic could go out at any moment.

而且，这又是个大问题。

And then, like, again, that's a big, big problem for them.

是的。

Yeah.

再简单聊几句，咱们就走。

Talk briefly again, and then we'll head out.

为什么OpenAI必须赶在Anthropic前面公开？

Why is it important for OpenAI to go before Anthropic?

说到你提到的出版业，这部分的核心其实都在塑造叙事、炒作这些股票的投资热度。

So so much of this, to your book publishing point, is around the narratives and around drumming up investor interest in in these stocks.

SpaceX和OpenAI确实都挺有意思，毕竟SpaceX现在有了xAI，从某些角度看和OpenAI的业务很相似，但它们本质上是完全不同的公司。

And while SpaceX and OpenAI are interesting because, obviously, SpaceX has x AI now, which is directly analogous in ways to to OpenAI's business, They're very different businesses.

OpenAI当然没有火箭发射部门，也不太可能拥有Twitter——这点或许反而是好事。

Obviously, OpenAI doesn't have a rocket launching arm, nor do they have Twitter probably for better in that case.

所以它们的业务重叠并不多。

So they don't have a lot of overlap.

因此市场上会做一些两家公司AI业务的可比分析，但并不是直接可比的。

And so there's going to be comps that are done, like market comparables done between the two companies on their AI businesses, but they're not direct.

Anthropic和OpenAI显然更被视为直接竞争对手。

Anthropic and OpenAI would be much more viewed as direct, obviously, competitors between the two.

不过，正如我们之前提到的，它们的业务在某些方面确实不同。

Now, their businesses, as we've been talking about, are different in ways.

但正如我们在这次对话中多次谈到的，它们正在逐渐趋同，对吧？

But as we've also spent a lot of this conversation about, they're converging, right?

因为OpenAI感觉必须去抢占Anthropic已经成功吸引的开发者群体，专注于编程，最终走向自主代理任务。

Because OpenAI feels like they have to go after what Anthropic has been able to tap into with developers and, yeah, leaning into coding and then eventually agentic work.

所以它们正在走向趋同。

And so they are converging.

而最近一轮融资中，Anthropic和OpenAI之间的对比，对OpenAI来说越来越不利。

And the comps between Anthropic and OpenAI that we're seeing with these most recent fundraises just increasingly do not look good for OpenAI.

所以当公众投资者看到这一点，他们会想，好吧，我们得在两家当中选一家投资。

And so when public investors see that, they are going to say, Okay, we're going to invest in one of these or the other.

那我们到底该选哪一家呢？

Which one are we going to invest in?

以前你说过，ChatGPT 在总收入上遥遥领先，而且他们可能在利润上落后，因为他们花大钱买服务器，想抢占比 Anthropic 更大的市场。

Previously, when you said ChatGPT was by far and away the leader in top line revenue And yeah, they might be behind in bottom line because they're spending so much on servers and they want to grow into a bigger market opportunity than what Anthropic could do.

他们之前就是这么讲这个故事的。

That's the narrative they would have projected with that.

但现在问题是，两家业务越来越趋同，而 Anthropic 的收入也突然赶了上来，这真是个大问题。

But now the fact that, again, they're converging businesses and that Anthropic has sort of zoomed ahead on the top line too is a real, real big problem.

我猜 OpenAI 会反驳说：看，我们还有九亿月活跃用户，但这个数字本身也有点尴尬，因为好长时间都没变过。

Now, I would assume that OpenAI would try to counter by saying, Look, we still have 900,000,000 MAUs, which is also slightly problematic because that number has not shifted in a while.

他们显然希望这个数字能突破十亿，好对外宣布一下。

And clearly, they've wanted it to shift above a billion so that they could announce that.

结果现在看来，Sundar 在台上宣布 Gemini 的月活跃用户也达到了九亿。

And it seems like the IO point, Sundar was on stage announcing that Gemini is also at 900,000,000 MAUs.

所以这倒不是，但他们大概还是会说，我们的日常用户和消费者使用量远超Anthropic，这就是我们的主打说法。

So that's not But still, they would probably say, Look, we have a lot more regular and consumer usage than what Anthropic has, and so that's going to be our narrative.

但我认为，当你去向投资者推介时，他们肯定会找对标公司，而这两家正是最直接的竞争对手，现在其中一家已经赶超了另一家。

But I don't Again, when you're talking to and out there pitching investors and they're gonna look for comps and those two are the, you know, the most direct comps to one another, and one of them has just overtaken the other one.

所以除非在接下来六个月、他们对外公布之前，OpenAI能重新拉开差距，比如大力推动编码技术，否则这会是个大问题。

And so unless in the next six months, before they were to go out, unless OpenAI has a way to zoom back ahead, heavily relying or pushing codecs, you would assume, that's going to be a big problem.

另外我还想补充一点。

Now, one other thing I would just add.

过去几个月这事争议很大，现在正好赶上SpaceX随时准备发射，事情正在发酵。

This is highly controversial in the past few months, and it's playing out right now as SpaceX gears up to go any day now.

行业规则最近有调整，据说SpaceX上市时，虽然不会立刻纳入标普500，但他们正推动修改规则，取消持股期限的要求。

There have been changes to the industry rules where apparently SpaceX, when they list, are going to be included in maybe not the S and P 500 right away, but they're also trying to change the rules for inclusion into that so that they no longer have a holding period.

这意味着，OpenAI、Anthropic，再加上SpaceX，这三家公司都足够大，很可能全都被划入同一类行业。

And so what that means for both OpenAI and Anthropic potentially is that they're big enough where all of them plus SpaceX would all go into these industries.

这样一来，各种共同基金和大型投资机构就不得不自动调整持仓，买入这些股票。

And that just means that the bunch of different mutual funds and all sorts of big funds automatically have to rebalance and buy into these.

所以你可以想象这么一种情况：也许可比公司和各项数据都没那么重要了，因为这些公司都会被纳入这些指数，各大共同基金无论如何都得大规模买入。

And so you can see a world in which maybe the comps and and all the numbers don't matter so much because these these basically, these they're gonna be included in these indices, and these mutual funds are gonna have to buy in in major ways regardless.

所以，也许现在上市确实是个合理的理由。

And so maybe that's an argument for going out now, I guess.

但我只是想尽量把情况说清楚，是的。

But, again, I'm trying to paint, like Yes.

我想描绘出一个最迂回的图景，说明为什么OpenAI和Anthropic同时上市是有道理的。

The most, like, roundabout picture of how, like, how you can make an argument for OpenAI going out at the same time as Anthropic.

也许OpenAI可以作为一家上市公司多等一阵子，但它们还是需要筹钱吧。

Maybe OpenAI just waits as a public company for longer, but would they they need to raise money still.

所以——

And so

或者它们其实已经能做到了？

Or are they able to do maybe they do.

对吧？

Right?

对我来说，唯一还悬着的问题是，Anthropic 刚刚融资了六百五十亿美元。

That's sort of the one thing that sort of remains hanging for me is Anthropic just raised $65,000,000,000.

他们上周才宣布的。

They announced it last week.

我知道。

I know.

而 OpenAI 刚刚融资了一千二百二十亿美元。

It's OpenAI just raised 122,000,000,000.

他们的烧钱速度真有这么快，非得上市才能持续输血吗？

Is the burn that great that they have to go public to keep funding it?

别忘了，我对公开市场还能剩多少融资空间，其实也不太清楚。

And remember, I I I don't know, you know, what's left after the public market, Right.

就融资能力而言。

In terms of fundraising.

如果上市了，他们借钱会容易得多，而且股票也能更灵活地用作融资工具。

Well, they just have easier access to raise debt, you know, if they're public and they'll be able to use their stock sort of in a more liquid way.

还有一些更具体的理由，但我对这些不太了解，说不准他们到底是怎么想的。

You know, and there's other more granular reasons that I'm not well versed enough in to know exactly why they would do it.

不过我觉得，从大方向来看，他们这么做是因为现在时机正好。

I would imagine, though, at the highest level, they're doing it because the window's open.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Like Yes.

万一市场风向一变，他们要是没趁现在赶紧行动，搞不好就卡住了——毕竟他们还得不断融资。

If and when it changes, like, they could be stuck if they don't go out when the window is open, knowing that they need to continually be fundraising.

说到你提的这个问题：他们真得一直靠融资维持吗？

Now, to your point of do they need to keep fundraising?

我觉得，Anthropic 目前看起来挺稳的，毕竟大家都在谈他们快盈利了。

I would say, like, yeah, Anthropic seems like in a good spot, you know, given that talk of profitability and whatnot.

但别忘了，他们其实也挺被动的，这点 OpenAI 就抓得很准——他们根本满足不了市场需求。

But remember, they're also in a bit of a tricky spot, which OpenAI has played up certainly, in that they haven't had the capacity to meet the demand.

所以现在他们正和SpaceX，就像我们之前说的，还有其他新兴云服务商达成协议，这些合作代价不菲，动辄就是几十亿美元。

And so now they're striking these deals with SpaceX, as we talked about, and with other neo clouds, and those deals are not cheap and those cost billions and billions of dollars.

有报道说，他们每年可能要付给SpaceX一百五十亿美元，租用那个Colossus数据中心，是真的吗？

What's the report that they're paying like $15,000,000,000 potentially a year to SpaceX to lease the Colossus data center?

所以呢，没错，如果你刚融到钱，转头就全砸在这些新兴云服务商身上，只为满足算力需求，那确实会很快烧光。

And so like, yeah, I mean, you can burn a lot of your money that you just raised quickly if you're all of a sudden spending it right back to these neoglass to to meet capacity.

接下来会怎么发展，还真不好说。

And so, you know, how that plays out.

现在都六月了。

It's June now.

他们会在今年年底前再筹一轮吗？

Do they go out before the end of the year?

我不知道。

I don't.

从现在到那时，中间变数太多了。

I mean, there's so many variables in between now and then.

我觉得我这话都说了好几遍了，从现在到他们上市这段时间，变数太多了。

I feel like I've had broken record on this, like that a lot could change in between now and and the time that they would go out.

但SpaceX这周，或者最晚下周初就要上市了。

But SpaceX is going to go public, you know, this week, the end of this week or early next.

最迟也就十一号吧，反正就这几天的事。

And so or maybe the eleventh, you know, at the latest or whatnot.

他们一上市，就得看看市场到底买不买账。

And so they're going to be out there and they're going to test that public appetite.

同时，他们也会试探一下我们刚才说的那些指数基金会不会进场，会是什么情况。

And they're also going to test the fences of what we were just talking about with regard to these indices buying in and what that will look like.

有一种可能，就是由于自动买入的推动，SpaceX的市值瞬间就冲破两万亿美元，想想都吓人。

Like, there's a world in which SpaceX's stock value market cap just zooms way past 2,000,000,000,000, like, in an instant because of of this automatic buying that happens, which is wild.

确实如此。

Definitely.

Anthropic已经宣布了秘密提交上市申请。

Anthropic made its announcement about the confidential filing to go public.

他的博客文章里写了两段，但事先没向任何媒体透露过消息。

Two paragraphs on his blog post did not prebrief any news publications.

所以

So

说起来

talk about

麦克风。

a mic.

该你了，OpenAI。

See what your move, OpenAI.

轮到你了。

Your move.

嗯。

M.

一如既往，很高兴见到你。

G, great to see you as always.

直播讨论突发新闻总是特别有意思。

Always fun to talk about breaking news live.

再次感谢你来参加。

So thank you again for coming on.

我也是。

Likewise.

你这招真够突然的，亚历克斯，我完全没料到。

And you totally hit me with that blind, Alex.

我连推送通知都没收到。

I didn't even get a push notification about it.

哇，真的吗。

So wow.

好吧。

Okay.

哦，是啊。

Oh, yeah.