本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
随着谷歌与苹果合作并推出更深入的个性化功能，Gemini是否正在胜出？
As Google partners with Apple and unveils deeper personalization, is Gemini winning?
与此同时，Thinking Machine Labs正在分崩离析，而Anthropic成功发布了面向非程序员的ClaudeCode。
Thinking Machine Labs, meanwhile, is falling apart, and Anthropic did it, releasing ClaudeCode for noncoders.
所有这些内容，以及更多，将在本广告后立即呈现。
All that and more is coming up right after this.
AI最有价值的应用是否在于工业领域？
Can AI's most valuable use be in the industrial setting?
在参观了IFS在纽约市举办的‘Industrial X Unleashed’活动，并有机会与IFS首席执行官马克·穆菲特交谈后，我越来越频繁地思考这个问题。
I've been thinking about this question more and more after visiting IFS' Industrial X Unleashed event in New York City and getting a chance to speak with IFS CEO, Mark Muffett.
举个明确的例子，穆菲特告诉我，IFS正在派遣波士顿动力公司的Spot机器人进行巡检，将数据传回IFS的神经中枢，再借助大型语言模型，为需要处理的区域指派合适的技术人员。
To give a clear example, Muffett told me that IFS is sending Boston Dynamics spot robots out for inspection, bringing that data back to the IFS nerve center, which then with the assistance of large language models, can assign the right technician to examine areas that need attending.
这是技术领域一个令人着迷的前沿，我很感谢IFS的合作伙伴让我看到了这一点。
It's a fascinating frontier of the technology, and I'm thankful to my partners at IFS for opening my eyes to it.
如需了解更多，请访问ifs.com。
To learn more, go to ifs.com.
那就是 ifs.com。
That's ifs.com.
欢迎收看《大科技》播客周五版，我们将以一贯冷静而细致的方式解析最新资讯。
Welcome to Big Technology podcast Friday edition where we break down the news in our traditional cool headed and nuanced format.
今天我们的节目非常精彩，因为谷歌和苹果终于达成了一项协议。
We have a great show for you today because Google and Apple finally came to a deal.
他们将修复 Siri。
They're gonna fix Siri.
这是否让谷歌在人工智能竞争中占据了领先地位？
And has that catapulted Google to the lead position in the AI risk?
我们会讨论这个问题。
We're gonna talk about that.
我们还会谈谈 Thinking Machine Labs 的瓦解。
We're gonna talk about Thinking Machine Labs falling apart.
我们还会谈到 Anthropic，继上周我们讨论 Claude Code 之后，他们推出了 Claude Cowork，这是面向非程序员的 Claude Code 版本。
We're also gonna talk about Anthropic on the heels of our conversation about Claude Code last week coming out with Claude Cowork, the Claude Code version for non coders.
这名字有点长，但很有意义。
It's a mouthful, but it's meaningful.
和往常一样，周五我们邀请了Margins的Ranjan Roy来一起讨论。
And joining us as always on Friday to do it is Ranjan Roy of Margins.
Ranjan，很高兴见到你。
Ranjan, great to see you.
Claude Code，Claude Cowork，专为非程序员打造的Claude Code版本。
Claude Code Claude Cowork, the Claude Code for non Claude coders.
就是这样吗？
Was that it?
我觉得应该说成
I think Put it
用基因束带固定住。
all in a genetic harness.
把它套上束缚带。
Put it in a harness.
顺便说一下
By the way
天哪。
Oh my god.
我们要我们的
We're gonna Our
上周关于 Harness 的讨论引发了观众的大量强烈反馈。
conversation about harnesses last week generated a lot of intense feedback from our audience.
人们真的很支持 Harness 这一派。
People are really on team harness.
所以今天我要借此机会，
So I'll take the opportunity today Take
让我走。
me out.
站在这里告诉所有反对者，我仍然不喜欢这个词，但我尊重你们的喜爱。
To stand here and tell all the haters, I still don't like the word, but I respect you for enjoying it.
我很高兴看到‘Harness’这个词能成为2026年的年度词汇。
I'm glad Harness is gonna imagine when Harness is the word of 2026.
但我更兴奋的是能聊我们的第一个故事，因为Siri终于有希望了。
But but I I'm just excited that to talk about our first story because Siri has a shot.
Siri终于有希望了。
Siri has a shot.
Siri在后台说话了，因为我刚在HomePod上说了那句话。
And Siri's talking in the back ground because I just said that on my HomePod.
但是
But
介绍这个故事的唯一方式就是：苹果已经利用了Gemini的强大功能，并将其应用到Siri中。
There's only one way to introduce this story, and that is that Apple has harnessed the power of Gemini and put it into action in Siri.
谷歌和苹果之间达成了一项新协议，可能会带来Siri的必然改进。
There's a new deal that has happened between Google and Apple that may lead may lead to the inevitable improvement of Siri.
我说‘必然’是因为天啊，Siri已经不可能再更差了。
And I say inevitable because goodness gracious, it can't get much worse.
但我认为，要真正理解人工智能领域正在发生什么以及这个故事的意义，我们当然要看看谷歌和苹果的协议会是什么样子。
But I think to really think about what's happening in the AI world and what this story means, we'll, of course, get to what Google and Apple's deal is gonna look like.
我们必须从更大的人工智能竞赛背景来看待这件事，苹果选择谷歌并将谷歌的大型语言模型整合进Siri，这究竟意味着什么，对谷歌自身又会产生什么影响。
We have to look at it in terms of the context of the bigger AI race and just how meaningful it is that Apple has selected Google and put Google's LLM into Siri and what that means for Google itself and what it will what it will do.
所以，《The Verge》的戴维·皮尔斯写了一篇关于此事的精彩文章，标题非常简单。
So David Pierce from The Verge has a great article about this, and the headline is simple.
Gemini正在胜出。
Gemini is winning.
我基本上决定采用这个标题作为我们今天故事的第一部分，因为这个故事确实可能是对谷歌在人工智能竞赛中处于领先地位这一事实最清晰的阐述。
And I basically decided to take that headline and make it the first segment of our story because of our show today because the story really is, I think, the probably the best articulated version of the fact that Google has, is in the the pole position here in the AI race.
以下是皮尔斯的原文，我们稍后会谈到Siri，因为这正是建立在这一点之上的。
So here's what Pierce writes, and we're gonna get to Siri in a minute because it builds on this.
如果你想在人工智能领域获胜，就必须同时完成一系列艰难的事情。
If you wanna win an AI, you have to do a bunch of hard things simultaneously.
他说，你需要拥有一个被公认为市场上最顶尖的模型。
He says you need to have a model that is unquestionably one of the best on the market.
你需要近乎无限的资源，以持续改进该模型并大规模部署。
You need the nearly infinite resources required to continue to improve that model and deploy it at massive scale.
你需要至少一个被大量用户使用的基于AI的产品，最好不止一个，并且你需要尽可能多地获取用户的数据。
You need at least one AI based product that lots of people use and ideally more than one, and you need access to as much of your users' data as you can possibly get.
皮尔斯认为，谷歌是唯一一家似乎已将所有要素都准备就绪的公司。
Pierce argues Google is the one company that appears to have all the pieces already in order.
在过去一年，甚至最近几天，该公司采取的举措表明，它已准备好成为AI领域最大、最具影响力的推动力。
Over the last year and even in the last few days, the company has made moves that suggest it is ready to be the biggest and most impactful force in AI.
好吧。
Alright.
在我们深入讨论苹果的内容之前，谈谈你对这些因素的看法。
Before we jump into the Apple stuff, talk a little bit about what you think in terms of these factors.
对吧？
Right?
因为看起来谷歌确实具备了所有这些条件。
Because it does look like Google has all these factors.
当然，它不依赖英伟达，拥有自己的芯片，再加上搜索业务带来的垄断性收入，确实让这家公司能够像皮尔斯所言那样取得领先地位。
And, of course, the fact that it's not reliant on NVIDIA and has its own chips, along with the monopoly of search money, has really enabled the company to to do to seemingly take this lead as Pierce argues.
你怎么看？
What do you think?
我认为，尤其是与其他超大规模云服务商相比，谷歌过去一年所取得的成就令人惊叹。
I think especially relative to the other hyperscalers, Google, what they've done over the last year is incredible.
我甚至不得不去查了一下，我记得我们以前可能做过整段内容讨论‘谷歌是否应该一年前就解雇桑达尔’。
I actually was had to look up, and I think we probably had entire segments on should Google fire Sundar a year ago.
我记得在2024年1月，佐特隆那边还在讨论‘谷歌应该解雇桑达尔·皮查伊’，当时正是这类讨论最热烈的时候。
I saw there's, like, Jan twenty twenty four at Zitron, Google should fire Sundar Pichai, like, when all that conversation was happening.
但现在，我喜欢这个分析框架。
And now I I like this framework.
你有模型。
You have the model.
你有资源。
You have resources.
你拥有那些可以即用型、大规模应用的AI产品，这正是我们接下来要讨论的个人智能。
You have products that can be kind of just, like, ready to use AI at scale, which is we're gonna talk about personal intelligence.
所以我认为，所有要素都已具备，足以让我们试着从另一个角度看这个问题。
So I think all the pieces are there to try to, you know, like, see the other side of this.
你提到的，他们因搜索垄断而获得的无限资本优势，反而可能成为这个链条中最薄弱的一环。
What you said is their benefit to, like, having infinite capital because of their search monopoly can still also be the one week link in this.
我必须充分肯定桑达尔和团队在这次转型中的表现——他们敢于直面自己的‘金矿’，全力推进AI搜索概览，哪怕这会彻底颠覆现有的商业模式，他们依然在推进。
Is that I I actually give full credit to how Sundar and the team have managed this transition to actually go after their golden goose and actually try you know, AI search overviews completely destroy their existing business model, yet they're pushing it.
他们知道这是未来，但正是这一点，迫使他们从根本上威胁到自己的垄断商业模式，这并不理想。
And they they know it's the future, but that's that's the one part that they are fundamentally having to threaten their monopolistic business model, which isn't great.
没错。
Right.
但让我从更宏观的背景来看。
But let me put it in context.
为了将Google搜索预装到苹果手机上，Google每年必须向苹果支付大约200亿美元。
So to put Google search on Apple phones, Google has to pay Apple something like $20,000,000,000 a year.
现在谷歌
Now Google
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
来解释一下
Get get into explain
Gemini。
the Gemini.
是的。
Yeah.
接入Siri，而且它在赚钱。
Into Siri, and it's getting paid.
这其实正在积累，就像说，好吧。
And this is really building up to like, okay.
所以谷歌拥有所有这些要素。
So so Google has all these elements.
现在的问题是，你如何利用它？
And now the question is, what do you do with it?
以下是皮尔斯的写法。
Here's what Pierce writes.
当你已经部署了所有这些技术时，你会怎么做？
What do you do when you have all this tech in place?
你把它摆在人们面前，让它发挥作用。
You put it in front of people and put it to work.
周一，谷歌和苹果宣布，Gemini 将为今年即将推出的下一代 Siri 提供支持。
On Monday, Google and Apple announced that Gemini will power the next generation Siri that's coming this year.
皮尔斯写道，苹果称这是目前最先进技术，这显然是向市场发出的一个强烈信号。
Pierce writes Apple saying this is the best technology available is obviously a powerful signal to the market.
但更重要的是，Siri 立即成为人们使用 Gemini 的最主流方式之一，而这笔交易之所以更重要，是因为每个用户都很关键。
But even more than that, Siri immediately becomes one of the most popular ways people interact with Gemini, and the deal the deal matters even more because every user matters.
这些公司收集的用户活动和数据越多，他们的模型和产品就能变得越好。
The more user activity and data these companies can collect, the better their models and products can be.
而且，这会形成一个飞轮效应，一个与搜索相关的飞轮，AI也是如此。
And, it creates a flywheel, a flywheel with search, and the same will hold true with AI.
我认为这些都是非常重要的观点。
I think these are very big points.
等一下。
Hold on.
给我解释一下搜索的飞轮效应。
Explain to me the flywheel with search.
比如，我们有个人上下文。
Like, we have personal context.
我们有个人智能。
We have personal intelligence.
但向广告商收费，让他们出现在你的搜索结果中——这些结果以某种顺序呈现为蓝色链接，并且要排在页面更靠前的位置——这就是搜索的商业模式。
But, charging advertisers to show up in your search results, which are presented in some kind of order as blue links, and to be higher on that page, that is the search business model.
这实际上不仅仅是搜索东西。
It's not actually just searching for stuff.
这就是商业模式。
That's the business model.
那么，这如何构成一个飞轮呢？
So how is it a flywheel for that?
嗯，我认为还可以。
Well, I think the okay.
商业是一回事，产品是另一回事。
The the there's the business, and then there's the product.
我认为皮尔斯说的 specifically 是关于产品。
And so this, I think Pierce is talking specifically about product.
生成式人工智能的一个有趣之处在于，查询内容比搜索要多样化得多。
Now one interesting thing about generative AI is that the queries are much more varied than search.
我认为每天大约有三分之一的搜索是谷歌从未见过的。
And I think something like one third of searches are brand new to Google every day.
我认为，这些向生成式AI提出的问题中，有更多是全新的。
I would argue that many more, of these questions to generative AI, models are novel.
因此，我认为要精通自己的工作，就必须能够充分理解各种查询的多样性，弄清楚自己哪些方面做得好，哪些方面还有提升空间。
And so I think to become good at doing what you do, you have to be able to really appreciate the broad range of queries and figure out where you're doing well and figure out where you could get better.
现在，谷歌将把它的产品推向数十亿苹果用户，这些用户将为谷歌提供数据反馈。
And so now Google is gonna put its its its product in front of the billions of Apple users who are now going to be giving it data back.
也许苹果会构建某种防火墙，但事实是，这种合作将使Gemini产品变得更强大，因为它将更深入地理解更广泛用户的行为，并据此进行优化。
Now maybe Apple's gonna build some sort of fly some sort of firewall, but the fact is that this partnership is going to make the Gemini product better because it's going to really understand a much broader range of user behavior and optimize based off it.
而相比之下，ChatGPT必须为每一个用户争取使用机会。
Whereas, again, with ChatGPT, they gotta fight for every single user.
它们没有像谷歌那样自有产品的分发渠道，也肯定不再拥有与苹果的这项合作。
They don't have the distribution of their own products like Google does, and they certainly don't have this Apple deal anymore.
事实上，谷歌正在取代Siri中的ChatGPT。
In fact, Google is supplanting ChatGPT in Siri.
你有没有在苹果的嵌入式环境，比如iOS中使用过ChatGPT？
Did you did did you ever use ChatGPT in the kind of, like, embedded Apple context, the iOS.
我想我刚发布时用过几次，那时候你得额外点击两次，才能得到一个半成品的ChatGPT搜索结果。
I think I used it when it came out a couple of times where you had to, like, click tap twice extra to get a half baked ChatGPT search.
你用过吗？
Did you ever use it?
或者说是的。
Or yeah.
是的。
Yes.
我想我用过一次，只是为了感受一下使用过程有多痛苦。
I think I used it once just to feel how painful it was to go through.
其实，也不是。
Well, actually, no.
那并不完全正确。
That wasn't that's not really true.
现在回想起来，我当时其实很期待在Siri中使用ChatGPT。
Now that's when I look back, I actually was eager to use Chateappity within Siri.
我觉得痛苦来自于意识到它离我有多远。
I think the pain came from actually realizing how many steps away it was.
而且，所以我认为，如果你在暗示我们根本不知道这件事会发展到什么地步，也许我们不能信任苹果能做好这件事，那我可能会认同这种观点。
And and that so I think this if you're if you're signaling that we don't really know what the extent of this is gonna be, maybe we can't trust Apple to get this right, then I'm I might be buying that.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
关于这一点，我想说几点。
So couple of things on that.
真惊人的是，因为我之前说过，我有一台 Pixel 9 就放在那儿，一直没用。
That it is amazing that because I I had I think I've said before, I have, like, a Pixel nine, I think it is, just sitting there.
所以有一次，我重新把它拿出来，测试了一下 Gemini 原生体验的感觉。
So sometime I, like, loaded it up again and started just testing what Gemini natively feels like.
天啊，它好太多了。
And my god, it's so much better.
如果苹果在 Siri 上搞砸了，我真的不知道这家公司在整个 AI 领域会走向何方。
And, if if Apple screws that up with Siri, I I just don't know where this company is gonna go in the whole world of AI.
这简直令人恐惧。
It's kind of just terrifying.
但你刚才说的这一点让我很感兴趣，因为从产品角度来看，谷歌由此获得的数据量、访问权限和上下文信息，确实是在一个已经以数据为驱动的 exponential 公司基础上进一步呈指数级增长。
But but what you're saying earlier is interesting to me because because I agree from a product perspective, the amount of data and access and context this gives Google is just, like, exponential in an already exponential company in terms of data.
但即便如此，他们怎么做到呢？我的意思是，苹果肯定会付钱给他们。
But still, how do they I mean, Apple's gonna be paying them.
这是一条业务线。
That's one business line.
没人真正搞清楚基于 AI 搜索、LLM 搜索的广告模式该怎么运作。
Like, they they no one has figured out AI search, LLM search based advertising.
实际上，你觉得谁会最先做到这一点？
Actually, who do you think is gonna who would you bet does it first?
是 OpenAI 的 VGCMo，还是老牌巨头谷歌，他们能真正找到向用户收取 LLM 搜索展示费用的方法？
VGCMo over at OpenAI or the masters, the old timers, Google, and they figure out how to actually charge people to show up in LLM search.
如果你必须下注的话。
If you had to take take a bet.
这根本不是问题。
Oh, it's not even a question.
我的意思是，它是唯一一家依靠搜索广告建立起万亿美元商业帝国的公司。
I mean, it is the one company that's built a multi trillion dollar business out of search advertising.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得OpenAI可能会做到，但别忘了，即使他们最近在应对代码红事件时试图对抗这一产品，其商业模式也被搁置了。
I I think that OpenAI may do it, but remember even with the code red that they had recently trying to fight against the product, the business model was put on hold.
他们虽然已经看到一些广告投放的迹象，但仍暂停了广告上线。
They put on the the ad rollout on hold even though we're seeing some of it.
我认为这毫无疑问。
I I think there's there's no doubt.
你知道的。
You know?
我们稍后会聊聊谷歌如何在不同产品之间共享数据。
And we're gonna talk a little bit about the fact that Google's gonna be able to share data across different products.
但我认为毫无疑问，谷歌会将其在其他业务领域的部分精准定位和专业知识应用过来。
But I think there's no doubt that Google will take some of its targeting, some of its expertise from the other sides of its business.
所以它并不是从零开始，而是基于这个LN。
So it's not just starting at zero, with this LN.
但事实上，我现在很想知道你的看法，拉詹。
But actually now I'm curious to hear your perspective, Ranjan.
我们当然在讨论产品方面的事情。
Why so we're talking obviously about the product side of things.
那你为什么特别关注商业层面呢？
Why have you zeroed in on the business side of it?
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
是商业层面和这笔交易的某些方面让你有所触动吗？
Is there something about the business side and this this deal that's making you you know, making something light up in your head.
嗯，我认为我们一直都在争论，到底是模型重要还是产品重要？
Well, I I think and now we we always debated, is it the model or the product?
现在我们讨论的是产品还是商业模式，而不是基础模型？
Now we have, is it the product or the business model, not actually the foundation model?
我认为这是因为，我同意这篇文章的观点。
I think it's because like, I I agree with this article.
一切看起来对谷歌都很顺利，也许它只是想为此带来一些细微的差别。
Everything appears to be going right for Google, and maybe it's just trying to kind of bring some nuance to it.
但对我来说，当你提到无限资本和搜索垄断时，我突然意识到，这些东西正在消失。
But but to me, was more when you said that infinite capital, that, like, that search monopoly, it just reminded me that that is going away.
他们意识到这些东西正在消失。
They recognize it's going away.
我完全认可他们正在努力为未来的一切而奋斗。
I give them full credit for actually trying to fight for whatever is next.
但历史上最伟大的商业模式之一，正在消逝。
But still, the one of the greatest business models in the history of mankind is going away.
即使你能把其他所有事情都做好，也可能无法挺过这一关。
And that's the like, you can execute on everything else, and you can still not survive that.
这是一个非常有趣的视角。
That is a very interesting perspective.
所以我认为我们关于谷歌的话题几乎又回到了原点。
So I think we've almost come full circle here with Google.
对吧？
Right?
就像谷歌最初那样。
It was like Google at the beginning.
哦，谷歌在生成式AI上行动迟缓。
Oh, Google is slow playing generative AI.
记得他们实际上通过Transformer发明了它。
Remember they invented it effectively with the transformer.
他们内部有活生生的Lambda模型。
They had the living, breathing Lambda inside Google.
但从未发布过。
Never released it.
大家都说谷歌太担心自己的商业模式，不敢把这项技术公之于众。
And everyone said Google is too worried about its business model to release this to the public.
然后OpenAI当然抢先出手了。
Then OpenAI, of course, jumps the gun.
他们别无选择。
They have no choice.
现在他们只好说：好吧。
Now they're like, alright.
那我们就玩这个游戏吧。
We'll play that game.
他们已经在玩了。
They're playing it.
他们正在引领这场游戏，甚至可能在加速自我吞噬。
They're leading it, and they might be accelerating their own cannibalization.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我只是想看看这个争论的两个方面。
I think I mean, I think I'm being just trying to see both sides of the argument here.
他们现在处于非常有利的位置。
They're in a very good position right now.
我明白。
I recognize.
但事实上，我要站在另一方。
But, actually, I am gonna take the other side.
我认为OpenAI比谷歌更早找到了基于大语言模型的广告模式。
I think OpenAI figures out LLM based advertising ahead of Google.
真的吗？
Really?
听我说完。
Hear me hear me out here.
我觉得，说到基于搜索的广告，过去十年里谷歌一直在持续走下坡路，变得越来越差。
I think when I think about, like, search based advertising, Google has been on a steady state of degradation over the last ten years and gotten worse and worse and worse and worse.
与此同时，Facebook和Meta，愿他们安好，他们的广告业务变得越来越好。
Meanwhile, Facebook and Meta, god bless them, their advertising has gotten better and better and better and better.
所以，从根本上说，将我们的新技术真正转化为有吸引力的广告产品，谷歌仍在依赖十五年前建立垄断时的那套体系，而那套体系一直在退化。
So, like, the actual at the core of taking what our new technologies and actually turning that into a compelling advertising offer, Google's still working off of something that they built a monopoly off fifteen years ago, but has been degrading.
相比之下，Facebook值得一提的是，尽管苹果曾试图打压他们，但他们反而做出了越来越好的广告。
Whereas Facebook, to their credit, has been I mean, they've been Apple tried to kneecap them, like and they actually just made better and better ads.
所以，这次我站在Fiji和OpenAI那边。
So I'm taking Fiji and the OpenAI folks on this one.
我的意思是，谷歌上个季度的广告业务仅从600亿美元的基数上增长了15%。
I mean, Google only grew its ad business by, like, 15% off a base of 60,000,000,000 in the last quarter.
所以，仅仅如此。
So Only.
你可能会对我对‘他们的广告变差了，他们搞不定这事’这种说法持怀疑态度，这我能理解。
You'll forgive me by being a little skeptical of this idea that their advertising has gotten worse, and they can't figure this out.
老兄，我得提一件事。
Dude, one thing I had to bring up.
我刚刚在想这件事。
I was thinking about this.
几周前就提到过这个。
This came up a couple of weeks ago.
等等。
Like, wait.
是谢尔盖还是拉里回来了？
Is it Sergei or Larry who's back?
谢尔盖。
Sergei.
谢尔盖。
Sergei.
是的。
Yeah.
我最近看到好多报道说联合创始人回归了。
Like, I've been seeing so many credits that, like, cofounder comes back.
这正是点燃火花的原因，也是导致这种‘英雄归来’般现象的根源。
That's what's lit the spark, and that's what's causing this, like and, like, you know, like, kind of the hero returning.
我仍然觉得，正是桑达尔在麦肯锡时期的经历教会了他组织变革与重组的关键，以及引入DeepMind并真正实现整个公司AI开发集中化的做法。
I still like the idea that it's Sundar's McKinsey days that taught him the key to organizational, like, transformation and reorgs and the move to bring in DeepMind and, like, you know, like, actually centralize, like, the AI development across the entire.
那场最无聊的、典型的麦肯锡式重组，恰恰是成功的关键。
It was the most boring MBA, McKinsey style reorg that was right, that has been the key to the success.
这就是我的看法。
That's my take.
我觉得我们可以试着弄清楚这件事的来龙去脉。
I think we can try to get to the bottom of this.
你知道，我们前面还有很长的2026年要走。
So, you know, it's we have a long 2026 ahead.
也许我们有机会坐下来和桑达尔聊聊这件事。
Maybe maybe we'll get a chance to sit down with Sundar and talk about this.
我知道下周在达沃斯会有活动，另外，各位，如果你是在视频上观看，我现在换了个地方。
I know at Davos next week, and folks, by the way, if you're watching on video, I'm in a different location.
我在德国。
I'm in Germany.
前往达沃斯的路上，我将在那里进行一系列对话，其中两次将与谷歌的AI领导层进行。
En route to Davos, I'm gonna have a series of conversations there, and two of them are gonna be with Google, AI leadership.
所以德米斯·哈萨比斯下周将重返播客。
So Demis Asabas is gonna be back on the podcast next week.
我们将进行一场现场对话，从达沃斯播出，预计周三上线。
We're gonna do a live conversation, from Davos that should air on Wednesday.
此外，我还将与DeepMind的首席运营官莉拉·易卜拉欣进行对话，该对话将在几周后播出。
And then I'm also gonna do a conversation with the COO of DeepMind, Lila, Ebrahim, which will air a couple weeks later.
所以也许我可以问一下这件事
So maybe I can ask about this
问他吧。
Ask him.
麦肯锡那件事。
McKinsey thing.
也许我还可以问一下广告方面的事，因为拉詹，这周还发生了一件事，我们该讨论一下，这件事可能会让谷歌在生成式AI广告领域占据完美优势。
Maybe I can also ask about the advertising thing because, Ranjan, another thing happened this week that we should discuss, which may actually, set up Google for the perfect generative AI, advertising play.
我继续读一下皮尔斯的内容。
Here's I'm gonna keep reading Pierce.
这很棒。
This is good.
我们继续往下看。
Let's keep going with it.
谷歌本周的另一项公告更是个巨大的展示。
Google's other announcement this week is an even bigger flex.
它推出了一项名为‘个人智能’的可选功能，将Gemini与谷歌掌握的关于你的海量信息连接起来，以提供更优质的回答。
It announced an opt in feature called personal intelligence, which connects Gemini to a vast ocean of information Google has about you in order to give you better responses.
每次你提问时，Gemini现在都能通过查看你最近的搜索记录、在YouTube上观看的视频、邮件、照片、文件等来作答。
Every time you ask it a question, Gemini can now answer it by looking at your recent searches, the videos you watch on YouTube, your emails, your photos, your files, and more.
你真的无法夸大这件事的重要性。
You really can't overstate how big of a deal this is.
谷歌不再需要你提供大量上下文，也不再指望你每次都能给出出色而详细的提示，或构建复杂的自定义指令系统。
Google no longer has to ask you to give it lots of context, hope you provide excellent and detailed prompts every time, or build out complicated custom instruction systems.
谷歌已经对你了解得令人不安，现在Gemini也同样如此。
Google already knows a scary amount about you, and now Gemini does too.
你知道，我最初是从产品角度看待这一点的，觉得这实际上会是一个很棒的使用产品，我也认为确实如此。
And, you know, I initially looked at this from a product standpoint about how, oh, this will be actually a great product to use, and I think it will.
但考虑到我们今天讨论的方向，你知道还有谁也会希望对你了解得如此深入吗？
But given the direction that our discussion has gone today, you know who would also like to know a scary amount about you?
广告商。
Advertisers.
我觉得是的。
I think so okay.
所以是个人智能。
So personal intelligence.
我看到一些看起来非常炫酷的演示，而且我们早就讨论过谷歌在这方面所做的努力。
I saw some, like, very nice flashy looking demos, and and we've talked about this for a long time that Google does.
谷歌应该掌控这一切。
Google should own this.
谷歌就应该在了解你这方面做到极致，彻底碾压对手。
Google should just, like, destroy in this part of it in terms of knowing the most about you.
但说真的，我们聊着聊着，我刚刚其实做了一个测试。
And, but, you know, as we're speaking, I just I I've been running this test.
我一看到Gemini上线到Gmail，就立刻做了这个测试。
I ran this test the moment Gemini showed up in Gmail.
我总是问：我和我妻子的第一封邮件是什么？
I always ask, what was my first email with my wife?
我刚刚又问了一次。
I just asked it right now again.
顺便说一下，那是2011年1月。
And for reference, it was 2011, January.
它说：根据对您Gmail的搜索，与我妻子最早的邮件往来是2025年11月13日星期四，内容是关于我孩子的一次学校活动。
It says, based on my search over your Gmail, the earliest email thread with my wife was on Thursday, 11/13/2025, and it's about one of my kids' school events.
然后我说，我需要我有史以来的第一封邮件。
And then I said, I need my first email ever.
然后
And then
它说，根据搜索结果，我能找到的最早邮件线程是2021年10月星期三。
it says, based on a search, the earliest email thread I can find is Wednesday, October 2021.
他们怎么会搞错这个呢？
Like, how do they not get that right?
这就是整个问题中缺失的一环，而Gemini在这方面做得太棒了。
This is what this is this is the, like, the missing link in all of this that again, Gemini has gotten amazing.
我认为Gemini将会取代独立的Gemini，吸引大量ChatGPT用户，让他们再也不用去别的地方。
I think Gemini is gonna supplant, like, standalone Gemini, a lot of ChatGPT users, and prevent them from ever going there.
但从产品角度来看，我实在想不通。
But I just am baffled from a product standpoint.
这是最简单直接的问题了。
That is the most straightforward question to answer.
这像是搜索和大语言模型的结合，但它就是无法正确回答。
It's like a combination of some search and some LLM, and it can't get it right.
你认为为什么会这样？
Why do you think that is?
我本来正想问Gemini我的第一个和Wi-Fi的邮件是什么。
Well, I just I was just about to ask Gemini what my first email was with my Wi Fi.
然后我意识到，我的肌肉记忆可能不幸地更倾向于输入Wi-Fi而不是wife。
And then I realized my muscle memory is probably unfortunately geared to typing Wi Fi versus wife.
我需要为此去接受治疗。
I need to go to therapy for this.
但我的答案是，那只是
But my answer That's
真正的真正伴侣从来不是Chad GBT。
the true the true companion was never Chad GBT.
只是互联网连接而已。
Was just the Internet connection.
那是时代华纳和斯佩克特姆。
It was Time Warner and Spectrum.
我是个简单的人。
I am a simple man.
这就够了。
That's all I need.
一份来自
A work from
Wi-Fi。
Wi Fi.
它答对了吗？
Did it get it right?
没有。
No.
它说它猜对了我妻子的名字，但表示无法确切确认你整个历史中的第一封邮件。
It said I it got my wife's name right, but it says, I can't definitively confirm the single first email in your entire history.
然后它给了我一个要运行的查询，这很有趣。
And then it gave me a query to run, which is interesting.
是的。
Yeah.
也就是布尔搜索。
Which is Boolean search.
比如
Like
所以是的。
So Yeah.
我就直接回答了。
I I'm just gonna answer.
我在听。
I listen.
我认为这是人工智能的主要限制之一，我们上周稍微讨论过，就是上下文窗口会用完，而且可能很快就会用完。
I I think this is one of the main limitations of AI, and we spoke about it a little bit last week, is that the context window runs out, and it can run out fairly quickly.
我的意思是，想想你的Gmail里有多少字符。
I mean, think about how many characters you have in your Gmail.
如今的技术无法把所有这些内容都放进上下文窗口中。
It the technology today cannot put all that in the context window.
所以我们看到，现在出现了一些快捷方式。
So what what we see is that, like, there's now some shortcuts.
但话说回来，如果我们要讨论的话，我得说，这不应该这么难，因为即使现在，我也知道你也明白。
But then again, if if we're talking I have to say, I I you know, this should not be that hard because even now, I'm and and you know this too.
我正在一步步地思考。
I'm thinking through the steps.
对吧？
Right?
好吧。
Okay.
首先，先做个查询。
Fi you know, first do a query.
找出这个人的妻子或者Wi-Fi是谁，取决于他们的说服方式。
Find out who the who the person's wife or Wi Fi is depending on their persuasion.
然后
Then
你想要的任何东西都没问题。
Nothing wrong with the whatever whatever you want.
如果你真的爱上了Wi-Fi，我完全理解并尊重你。
If you if you are in love with Wi Fi, clearly, respect you.
但你可以继续进行搜索。
But then you can actually go ahead and do do the search.
所以，从产品角度来看，这里显然有问题。
So, obviously, from the product standpoint here, something is off.
你说得对。
You're right.
确实存在问题，老实说，这是Gemini最令人费解的地方之一。
There's a problem, and and it's one of the most inexplicable things about Gemini, to be honest.
但这正好为我们后续关于Claude Cowork的讨论做了很好的铺垫。
But so so and this is gonna be a good setup to our later conversation on Claude Cowork.
我认为，这很好地展示了智能代理与那种低级的LLM搜索之间的区别。
I think, like, this is a good example of agentic versus just some kind of, like, low grade LLM search.
同意。
Agreed.
把您有史以来的所有邮件都放进上下文窗口，是得不到正确答案的。
All of your email of all time needing to be in the context window is not gonna get you the right answer here.
构建一个能生成布尔搜索查询、执行搜索并返回结果的系统，为什么Gemini在Gmail里不做这件事呢？
Coming up with a system that create the Boolean search query, go do it, return the result should how is Gemini in Gmail not doing that?
但它并没有这么做。
But it's not.
所以，这里仍然存在一点问题，Sundar还得做些类似麦肯锡式的组织调整。
So this is where like, there's still a bit of this Sundar's still got some reorg McKinsey style work to do here.
我只是跟你说实话。
I'm just telling you.
但，嗯，如果他在听的话，总体来说，这个立场很好。
But, well, if if if he's listening, but overall, very good position.
你觉得这是安全问题吗？
Do you think it's a safety thing?
你觉得他们可能是出于这个原因吗？
Do you think that, like, they're it might be.
对吧？
Right?
他们可能担心，如果允许它在邮件中做太多事情，你会感到不适。
They might be concerned that if they allow it to do too much in email, you'll get creeped out.
对我来说，这是最合理的解释。
I mean, that to me is the best explanation.
我排除了技术限制这个说法。
I'm I'm striking the technology limitation thing.
这要么是能力问题，要么是安全问题。
It's it has to be either competence or safety.
不。
No.
不。
No.
这由我决定。
I it's my call.
这实际上是组织功能失调。
It is actually organizational dysfunction.
就像Gmail中的Gemini一样，负责Gmail的团队和产品经理之间存在一些来回拉扯，他们说：我不想给你访问这个的权限。
It's like the Gemini in Gmail, there's some back and forth between the team that owns Gmail, product managers saying, I don't want to give you access to this.
而且，实际上，作为Gmail连接器的独立Gemini很可能能正确处理这个问题。
And, like, because, again, actually, standalone Gemini as a connector to Gmail probably would get that right.
好的。
Alright.
在结束之前，我简单说两点。
Well, a couple quick things before we end.
我只是想快速聊聊Siri和iPhone会是什么样子。
I just wanna talk quickly about what Siri and the iPhone's gonna look like.
这些信息来自官方资料。
This is from the information.
Siri将能够回答事实性问题、讲故事、提供情感支持，或者帮助人们完成诸如预订旅行等任务。
Siri will have the ability to to answer factual questions, tell stories, provide emotional support, or, wow, or help people accomplish tasks such as booking travel.
部分功能将在今年春季推出，而其他功能，比如Siri记住与用户以往对话的能力，或根据苹果日历中列出的机场接送时间主动建议用户提前出发以避开交通拥堵，预计将在六月的年度开发者大会上公布。
Some of the features will launch this spring, other including Siri's ability to remember past conversation it had with a customer or proactive features that could suggest they leave home to avoid traffic ahead of an airport drop off that's listed on the Apple calendar are expected to be announced at the company's annual developer conference in June.
我只是想再回过头来谈一下这个话题，因为我们之前已经开始了讨论。
I just wanted to circle back on this because we had already started the discussion.
我不知道，我只是对苹果在这事上不太信任。
I don't know if I I just don't trust Apple on this one.
我们又回到了同样的演示和发布节奏。
It it we're going back to the same, like, demo and release schedule.
我的意思是，当然，协议刚签下来，但我不知道他们是否真能实现Apple Intelligence。
I mean, of course, like, it's just the deal was just signed, but I don't know if they're gonna be able to they're they're still trying to do Apple Intelligence.
展开剩余字幕（还有 424 条）
我只是不知道他们能不能做到。
I just don't know if they're gonna be able to do it.
是的。
Yeah.
让我感到困惑的是，为什么大家对预订旅行和AI这么着迷？
I it was so baffling to me that, like, it's still what is it with booking travel and AI that everyone is so obsessed with?
还有很多其他关于旅行研究的事情。
Like, there's so much other stuff researching travel.
没人会去订票。
You don't no one is gonna book a ticket.
让AI帮他们订票已经很久了。
Let AI book the ticket for them for a long time.
还有那个通用搜索功能，这又来了，其实早就解决了。
And, also, the universal search thing, it's already again, it's already been solved.
你可以用任何聊天机器人做到这一点。
Like, it's you can do that with any chatbot.
你应该能够做到这一点。
You should be able to do that.
你不应该把这宣传成一种了不起的功能。
You shouldn't advertise that as this amazing capability.
所以，说实话，如果苹果整个营销活动是这样说的：它会和其他所有功能一样基础好用，我们会把它提供给你，我会非常高兴。
So I I honestly I would love if Apple's entire marketing campaign on this was, it will be baseline good as everything else, and we will deliver that to you.
就这样。
And that's it.
我会欣喜若狂。
I would be I would be ecstatic.
就像我
Like I
我迫不及待想看超级碗的广告了。
can't wait for the the Super Bowl ad.
Siri。
Siri.
我们最终会达到足够的水平。
We're gonna be sufficient eventually.
是的。
Yeah.
Siri，我们会变得和他们一样好。
Siri, we're we're we'll be as good.
我们会和其他人一样好。
We'll as good as the rest.
这就是你的标语。
There's your tagline.
我也这么想。
Think the same.
我觉得这才是新的半程。
I think that's the new half.
并不一样。
Not the same.
希望也能做到同样好。
Think as good, hopefully.
是的。
Yeah.
如果他们真的这么做了，这将彻底改变整个业务。
That's literally, if they did that, that transforms the entire business.
这不应该那么难。
It should not be that difficult.
这正是我所要求的。
That's all I'm asking.
我仍然用着我的iPhone。
I still have my iPhone.
我可能会花七千美元左右买那个折叠iPhone，但他们得先解决这里的问题。
I I might get that iPhone fold for, like, $7,000 or whatever it'll be, but they gotta fix here.
你会折叠的。
You'll be folding.
好吧。
Alright.
我们结束这一段吧。
Let's end this segment.
该给的赞誉要给。
Credit where it's due.
这又回到了《The Verge》的这篇文章。
This is back back to this Verge article.
尽管谷歌一向不以清晰连贯的产品战略著称，但它还是成功地将庞大的资源集中到了一个方向上。
Credit where it's due for a company not exactly known for its ability to focus on coherent product strategy, Google managed to marshal its considerable resources in a single direction.
如果聊天机器人确实是未来，而整个AI行业继续押注于此，那么目前没有任何其他公司能真正与谷歌竞争。
Now if chatbots are in fact the future and most of the AI industry continues to bet they are, there's simply no other company currently set up to truly compete with Google.
谷歌拥有这些模型。
Google has the models.
它也有能力改进这些模型。
It has the resources to improve them.
它现在拥有了让人们使用其聊天机器人的渠道，以及让这些机器人变得独特个性化和实用所需的数据。
It now has the distribution necessary to get people to use its bots and the data required to make them uniquely personal and useful.
至少目前来看，ChatGPT拥有品牌影响力和日活跃用户，但谷歌几乎拥有其他所有优势，甚至包括iPhone。
At least for now, ChatGPP has the brand power and the daily active users, but Google has almost everything else, even the iPhone.
你认同这一点吗？
Are you buying this?
我有点认同。
I kinda am.
再说一遍，这正是关键所在。
Again, like, this is where yeah.
从设备角度来看，苹果是脆弱的。
From a device perspective, Apple is vulnerable.
我们都知道这一点。
We know that.
而谷歌，我其实有一件事很好奇。
And Google I actually, I want one thing I'm curious.
你觉得谷歌是不是也在研发某种类似皮诺或AI第一代约翰尼·艾夫风格的设备？
Do you think does Google they must have some kind of pin or AI first Johnny Ives style device under the works as well.
对吧？
Right?
他们
They
必须得有。
have to.
我下周肯定会和德米斯聊聊这个，因为我觉得我们之前讨论过那个关于谷歌在YouTube上发布的思考游戏纪录片，或者我这周早些时候提过。
I'm definitely gonna talk with Demis about this next week because I think we talked about this thinking game documentary, or I might have talked about it earlier this week that Google has up on YouTube.
所以我跟MG·西格勒聊过这个。
I so I spoke with that about it with MG Seigler.
这是一部很棒的纪录片，深入展现了DeepMind。
It's a great great documentary, kind of a look into DeepMind.
在纪录片的前半部分，他们看起来像是拿着手机对着各种东西拍照并提问。
And for, like, half the documentary, it seems like they're, like, pony pointing a phone at things and asking questions about it.
明白了。
Gotcha.
毫无疑问，这家公司即将大力推动可穿戴设备，这一点从未如此清晰。
It it is it's never been clearer that there's gonna be a big wearable push within that company without a doubt.
是的。
Yeah.
而且实际上，我是说，Meta有没有？作为非安卓生态用户，我知道三星手表很不错。
And and, actually, I mean, Meta, do they have any do as a non Android ecosystem user I know Samsung watches are pretty good.
那谷歌有Pixel手表吗？
Are and or Google is there a Pixel watch?
有。
Yes.
好的。
Okay.
它是不是
Is it
我不认为我有，如果我们问这个问题的话。
I don't think it's I have well, if we're asking that question
是的。
Yeah.
说得通。
Fair enough.
我觉得，基本上，我刚买了佳明手表，最近对智能手机市场做了大量研究，说白了，我可能会因为这话收到一些愤怒的邮件。
I think, basically, having just I just bought the Garmin, having just done a lot of research in the smartphone market, it's basically either I'm gonna get some angry emails for this.
我可能在这里错了。
I could be wrong here.
这没什么。
This is alright.
大家别太当真。
Don't hold me to this, folks.
我只是想聊聊我使用光标的经验，测试这些东西。
I'm just gonna talk about my cursor experience, testing this stuff out.
在我看来，这个市场基本上集中在智能手表上，比如苹果手表或佳明。
It seemed to me like the market is basically on smartwatches, the Apple Watch, or Garmin.
是的。
Yeah.
我也有同样的感觉。
That's what that's the sense I've gotten as well.
但Pixel Fold，我经常看。
But, the Pixel Fold, I I look at a lot.
我一直在做研究，现在谷歌基于传统的机器学习，在谷歌应用里给我推送大量关于Pixel的内容，比如新闻文章和类似的通知。
I've been researching, and now Google, based on old school machine learning, serves me a lot of Pixel content in the Google app in terms of news stories and stuff like that and push notifications.
所以，也许我会妥协，买一个，如果Siri不能和Gemini配合的话。
So so maybe I'll get maybe I will fold and get it if Siri doesn't work with Gemini.
你会妥协，然后买下折叠屏手机。
You're fold you'll fold and get the fold.
好吧。
Alright.
我我我想要，然后我们再，抱歉。
I I I wanna And then we'll Sorry.
别再说那些了。
Stop with those.
那个
The
我今天状态特别奇怪。
I'm in rare rare form today.
对不起。
I apologize.
在你去达沃斯认真之前，现在先把所有情绪发泄出来。
Before you get before you get serious at Davos, let it all out right now.
在那里我们肯定不会严肃的。
There will we will not have seriousness there for sure.
我们会尽可能在每个国家和大陆都讲烂笑话。
We will we will make we will make bad jokes in every country and continent possible.
好吧。
Alright.
我只是想结束这个环节。
I just wanna end this segment.
我已经说过这一点了，但这只是我的看法。
I already said that, but this is just my perspective.
我总觉得所有这些论点在纸上看起来都有道理，但当你使用OpenAI和Anthropic的模型及其产品时，它们真的非常出色。
I I I feel like all these arguments make sense on paper, but then you use OpenAI and you use Anthropix models and their their products, and they're damn good.
它们确实很棒。
They really are.
我真的不知道。
And I I I I don't know.
我觉得Gemini在某些方面可能与之相当，但我绝不会完全否定那些公司。
I would I don't think maybe Gemini is on par in some ways, but I would not write those companies off at all.
没错。
No.
我没有放弃它们。
I'm not writing them off.
我认为到目前为止的故事是，谷歌现在已经是领导者之一，我认为它在应对所有这些外部因素方面处于有利位置。
I think the story to as of today is that Google is now one of the leaders, I think, and and well positioned for all these other external factors.
从纯粹的Gemini/模型/产品角度来看，我认为它们不相上下。
From a pure Gemini slash model slash product standpoint, I think it they're on par.
我的意思是，它们确实不相上下，但我不认为有人会完全忽视其他公司。
I mean, they're certainly on par, but, I don't think I don't think anyone's, like, counting out through others.
对。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
但我认为《The Verge》这篇文章的结尾如此绝对。
But I thought with with the the end of this verge article was so definitive.
就说吧。
Just that, like, let's see.
根本就没有其他公司能真正与谷歌竞争。
There is simply no other company set up to truly compete with Google.
我不同意这个观点。
I disagree with that.
但在我看来，所有其他因素都是正确的。
But all the other factors are correct, in my opinion.
同意。
Agreed.
同意。
Agreed.
好的。
Okay.
我们来谈谈Mira吧。
Let's talk Mira.
好的。
Yes.
所以我们来聊聊Thinking Machines Lab，而且那里的风波还在持续。
So we're gonna talk about Thinking Machines Lab and the fact that there's been the drama continues.
顺便说一下，Thinking Machines Lab似乎是某个分支的分支。
It seems like that Thinking Machine Labs, by the way, is an offshoot an offshoot.
这是一家由前OpenAI高管和领导者创立的AI公司，目前公司内部正面临危机，许多人正在离职。
It's a company that works in AI that is founded by that was founded by former OpenAI executives and leaders, and there is a crisis right now going on within that company as many people head for the doors.
我们稍后会讨论这件事及其影响，以及Claude Cowork的相关情况。
We'll talk about that and what it means along with Claude Cowork right after this.
我们回到这里，这里是《科技大观》播客的周五特别版。
And we're back here on big technology podcast Friday edition.
今天我们聊得很开心，但Thinking Machines Lab却不是这样。
We are having a good time today, but thinking Machines Labs, lab is not.
以下是《连线》杂志的报道。
Here's the story from Wired.
周三，OpenAI的应用部门负责人Fiji Simo宣布，公司重新雇佣了Barrett Zof和Luke Metz，他们是Mira Moradi的AI实验室——Thinking Machines Lab的联合创始人。
On Wednesday, OpenAI's CEO of applications, Fiji Simo, announced the company had rehired Barrett Zof and Luke Metz, cofounders of Mira Moradi's AI Lab Thinking Machines Lab.
佐夫和梅茨于2024年底离开了OpenAI。
Zof and Metz left OpenAI in late twenty twenty four.
事情到这里变得相当激烈。
This is where it gets pretty intense.
一位知情人士表示，Thinking Machines的管理层认为，佐夫去年在公司期间曾发生严重不当行为。
A source with direct knowledge says that Thinking Machine's leadership believes Zof engaged in an incident of serious misconduct while at the company last year.
该人士称，这一事件破坏了米拉蒂的信任，并扰乱了两人之间的合作关系。
That incident broke Mirati's trust, the source says, and disrupted the pair's working relationship.
让我插一句。
Here's an aside for me.
听起来这个消息来源像是公关部门的人。
It's it sounds a lot like that source is somebody on the PR side.
这完全是典型的公关用语。
That's just like straight PR speak.
好的。
Okay.
该消息来源还声称，Mirati在周三解雇了Zof，当时还不知道他即将前往OpenAI，理由是公司声称在 alleged misconduct 之后出现的问题。
The source also alleged Maradi fired Zof on Wednesday before knowing he was going to OpenAI due to what the company claimed were issues that arose after the alleged misconduct.
好的。
Alright.
现在我要以记者的身份说话。
I'm gonna speak as a reporter now.
对我来说，看起来是这样。
The to me look.
我不太喜欢猜测消息来源，但这挺有趣的。
I I I I don't love to guess at sources, but it is fun.
而且看起来——当然我可能错了——但这个消息来源似乎只能是这两个人或三个人中的一个。
And it seems and I could be wrong here, but it seems like the source on this one was either one of two people or one of three people.
要么是Mirati、John Schulman（她的联合创始人），要么就是公关部门。
Either Mira Moradi, John Schulman, her cofounder, or PR.
就这些。
That's it.
这很明显，看起来就是明显的炒作，你知道的。
This is this is clear, like it seems like clear, you know, spin to me.
这就是这个故事。
So that's the story.
如果这是炒作，那所谓的严重不当行为或失信到底是什么？
If it's spin, like, what is this serious misconduct or breach of trust?
我的意思是，我想我知道他们不能说，但比如
I mean, I I guess I know they can't say it, but, like
所以我才觉得这是炒作。
That's why I think it's spin.
因为如果这不是代表官方思维机器发声的人，我们可能就知道了。
Because if it was a, like, somebody else that wasn't, like, giving the official thinking machine's message, we might know.
等等。
Wait.
抱歉。
Sorry.
给我详细讲讲这个。
Walk me through that.
给我详细讲讲这个。
Walk me through that.
好的。
Alright.
你会收到，你会收到，通常情况下是这样的。
You get you're you're get you're gonna get this is how it usually works.
你通常会接到一个公关人员的电话。
You get a call from typically, it's a PR person.
你知道，你之前联系过他们征求意见。
You know, you've reached out for comment.
你可能已经听说这些人离开了。
You might have heard that these people leave.
然后他们会向你提供他们的观点。
Then they're gonna give you their perspective.
对吧？
Right?
如果是公司内部的人，或者几个真正了解这起所谓不当行为发生情况的人，他们会告诉你的。
And if it was, like, somebody within the company or or a couple people that really knew what happened with this alleged misconduct, they will tell you.
我的意思是，也许Zof没有回应Wired的多次请求。
I mean, maybe so the Zof didn't respond to several requests from Wired.
所以也许他们只是没有足够的确凿证据，可能担心涉及法律风险。
So maybe they just didn't have it concrete enough and sort of might have been exposed to legal liability.
但通常情况下，当没有这样明确说明，而是一份关于事件经过的报道时，信息通常来自公司本身。
But typically, when it's not specified like that and it's a report over what happened, then, you know, it's typically coming from the company itself.
否则，你本应真正了解发生了什么。
You would imagine otherwise, you would actually know what happened.
这正是这里如此多纷争的原因。
It's a it's a very that's why there's so much drama here.
这是一个非常奇怪的情况。
It's a very weird situation.
好的。
Okay.
以120亿美元的估值融资20亿美元，却没有任何产品、商业计划，甚至没有说明你们的业务是什么，这从一开始就是一种很奇怪的情况。
Which raising $2,000,000,000 at a $12,000,000,000 valuation with no product or even business plan or any mention of what your business does was always kind of a weird situation if we think about it.
所以，也许这正是这种情况的必然结果。
So maybe this is just kind of the logical conclusion of that.
你觉得Thinking Machines完了吗？
Like, do do you think do you think Thinking Machines is done?
你觉得这只是路上的一个小挫折，Mira和团队会以更强的姿态回归吗？
Do you think this is just a hiccup in the road and Mira and team come back stronger than ever?
我觉得他们完了。
I think they're done.
我也这么认为。
I do.
我这边反对自己的一个论点是，他们拥有数十亿美元的资金。
The other the the one argument I'll make against me is that they have billions of dollars.
有二十亿美元左右，是的。
There is $2,000,000,000 or something Yeah.
就像，是的。
Like Yeah.
这是一大笔钱。
That's a lot of money.
天使轮。
Pre seed.
所以是天使轮或者种子轮，不管我们怎么叫它。
So Pre pre seed or seed, whatever we call that.
对。
Yeah.
你跳过了几轮。
You skip a few rounds.
对吧？
Right?
嗯，
Well
比如，早期融资以前是50万美元。
Like, seed seed used to be $500,000.
所以很明显，他们已经远远超过了那个阶段。
So clearly, they're beyond that.
但我想说说我为什么觉得他们已经完成了。
But I think they're I I just wanna say why I think they're done.
你有这两个已经离开了，还有更多人。
So you have these two that have left, and you have more.
还有另一个，萨姆·肖恩霍尔茨，他要回到OpenAI，这是来自《连线》杂志的报道，非常严谨。
There's another one, Sam Schoenholz, who's going back to OpenAI, and this is from the Wired story, which is very well reported.
至少还有两名Thinking Machine的员工预计将在未来几周加入OpenAI。
At least two more Thinking Machine employees are expected to join OpenAI in coming weeks.
不只是他们离开了，他们还回到了当初离开的地方。
Like, not only are they leaving, they're going back to the place they broke off from.
是的。
Yeah.
这部分对我来说最奇怪。
That part is the oddest part to me.
我并不觉得奇怪，但PGC Mo就像往伤口上撒盐一样，发推文谈论汇报结构，还欢迎这些人回来，这简直全是闹剧。
I'm not odd, but and and PGC Mo kind of, like, just pouring salt into the wound by saying, like, tweeting about reporting structure and welcoming these folks back as well was just it's all just drama.
在我看来，更大的问题是，这场荒谬的20亿美元种子轮投资、超级智能思维机器的热潮就此结束了吗？
I think, to me, the bigger question is, is this the end of this absurd $2,000,000,000 seed round, safe superintelligence thinking machines?
如果你是前OpenAI员工，你甚至不需要准备一份商业计划书就能拿到数十亿美元。
If you were an ex OpenAI person, you will get billions of dollars without even saying a pitch deck.
这一切就此结束了吗？
Is this the end of all that?
绝对没有。
Definitely not.
我的意思是，想想今天AI的状况和当时相比有多大的变化。
I mean, if you think about just think about where AI is today compared to where it was then.
哦。
Oh.
我认为我们都可以同意，如今AI的前景比以往更加真实了。
I think we could both we could both agree that the AI the promise of AI is more real now than it was
这很公平。
It's fair.
公平。
Fair.
实际上是2024年。
Actually '24.
当我们进入最后环节时，你说得对。
When we get to our final segment, you're right.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，确实如此。
I mean, it is.
确实是。
It is.
所以，基本上，如果有人有个想法，就会获得资金支持。
It's gonna so, basically, if someone has an idea, then they're gonna get funded.
是的。
Yeah.
但真正的人工智能能做实事的前景，比以往任何时候都更强大。
But the promise of, like, real AI doing real things is greater than ever.
那种关于社会终结、人类安全、思维能力等模糊概念的前景。
The promise of vague notions about, like, end of society and humanity and safety and thinking, whatever.
我觉得，某种程度上，这可能是那个时代的最后一击——那个我曾经热爱的时代，那时我们只谈论一些非常模糊和理论化的东西，而现在我们终于能专注于实际工作了，这是最好的事情。
Like, I feel maybe in a way, maybe this is the, like, nail in the coffin of that era of, like in which I would love, and this is the best thing ever where we stop talking about just really vague things and more theoretical things and actually are able to just focus on work.
你不觉得，随着估值和经济前景变得更加具体，那些边缘的荒谬言论反而会变得更严重吗？
Don't you think that as it gets as the valuations and the economic promise gets more concrete, that some of the silliness on the margins is just gonna get even worse?
不会。
No.
因为那样的话，你就真的像硅谷那个著名的HBO剧集里说的那样，永远不希望有收入，因为一旦有了收入，人们就会根据实际收入来估值。
Because then you actually it's like the famous Silicon Valley HBO episode where it's like you never wanna have revenue because then people will actually value on that revenue.
没错。
Yep.
当你真的在销售产品时，你的衡量标准就是你实际赚了多少钱以及收入的倍数，而不是当你还没有产品的时候。
When you actually are selling a product, then you are measured on the actual money you're making and the multiples of your revenue as opposed to when you got no product.
当你一开始没有收入时，他们就做不到这一点。
When you first of when you have no revenue, they can't do that.
而当你连产品都没有时，情况就更好了。
And when you don't have a product, it's even better.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，也许现在我们对AGI是什么以及通往AGI的道路有了更现实的看法。
I mean, maybe now we have more realistic views about what AGI is and what the path there is.
但不管怎样，这对思维机器来说似乎是个坏消息。
But, anyway, it's gonna be it looks like bad news for for thinking machines.
我刚刚已经回答过了。
I I just answered it.
我想用我看到的最喜欢的一件事来结束这个话题，那就是这种‘氛围创业’的概念。
I want I wanted to end this one with my favorite thing I saw on this was that this it introduced is this vibe founding.
就是简单地走出去。
Just kinda getting out there.
你其实什么都没做。
You don't really do anything.
你只是筹了一大笔钱，然后就完了。
You just raise a bunch of money, and you that's it.
氛围创业。
Vibe founding.
但我认为这些风投可能赌的是他们会找到下一个OpenAI，但看起来除了OpenAI之外，没人能成为下一个OpenAI。
But I think what these VCs were probably betting on was that they were gonna get the next OpenAI, but doesn't seem like anyone outside of OpenAI is gonna be the next OpenAI.
这是来自亚历克斯·海恩的评论。
This is from Alex Heath.
正如他所说，情况越来越好了。
As I he says, the more okay.
更多Thinking Machines的员工正在洽谈加入那三位刚重返OpenAI的创始成员，这一点Wired之前报道过，但这是新细节。
More Thinking Machines employees are in talks to join the three founding members who just rejoined OpenAI, which, okay, Wired had that, but this is the new detail.
消息人士称，Thinking Machines缺乏明确的产品和商业策略，并且一直在努力筹集新一轮融资。
Sources say Thinking Machine lacks a clear product and business strategy and has been struggling to raise a new round of financing.
好了，拉詹。
Alright, Ranjan.
也许最后一个细节表明你说得对，我们可能已经走出了那个荒唐的阶段。
Maybe that last detail is, some evidence that you're right, that we might be past the silly era.
但你知道有趣的是什么吗？假设那个离开的人泄露了对OpenAI保密的信息，我只是想知道那些信息是什么。
But do do you know what is interesting is, well, if, let's say, the the guy who left was leaking information that was confidential to OpenAI, I just wanna know what that information was.
他们是否有什么即将推出的产品，让人可以去窃取？
If is there a product in the horizon that they're, like, gonna let them steal?
或者我想知道。
Or I would like to know.
我真的很想知道。
Would love to know.
嗯，我的意思是，Fiji 在她的帖子中说，她对伦理问题没有担忧。
Well, I mean, Fiji, apparently, in her post said she doesn't have concerns about the ethics.
与此同时，我们对 Thinking Machines 一无所知。
Meanwhile, we know nothing about thinking machines.
对吧？
Right?
我们仍然根本不知道他们在做什么。
We we still don't really know what they're doing.
我觉得
Don't think
他们自己也不知道。
they They don't either.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
我觉得我们应该谈谈
I think we should talk about
说到正经干活。
Speaking of getting real work done.
对。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我们来聊聊 Claude Cowork 吧。
Let's talk about Claude Cowork.
上周，你和我，拉詹，讨论过 Claude Code，谈到这种技术能够为知识工作者完成工作，无论他们是否会编程，这周也是这样。
Last week, you and I had a discussion, Ranjan, about Claude Code, about how this was the type of technology that could get work done for knowledge workers, whether they know code or not this week.
基本上，就在我们聊完之后不久，这个就发布了。
Basically, you know, almost immediately after we had that conversation, this dropped.
这是来自《连线》杂志的报道。
This is from from Wired.
他们发布了一款名为Claude Cowork的工具，这是一个面向非技术人员的AI代理，你无需具备技术背景就能使用，而且《连线》称它确实有效。
They they released something called Claude Cowork, which is an AI agent that's not for technical people and or that you don't need to be technical to use it, and Wired says it actually works.
他们表示，Cowork将公司编码工具中的功能进行了优化，使用户体验更加友好。
They say, Cowork takes the abilities available in the company's coding focused tool and makes the user experience more approachable.
这款工具专为更广泛的非技术用户设计，他们可能想尝试一种新的控制电脑的方式，但又对命令行感到畏惧。
The tool is designed for the wider group of nontechnical users who may wanna experiment with a new way of controlling their computers but get freaked out by a command line.
它可以完成诸如将文件整理到文件夹中、生成报告，甚至接管浏览器以搜索网页或整理Gmail收件箱等任务。
It can do things like organize files into folders, generate reports, and even take over the browser to search the web or tidy up a Gmail inbox.
在文件管理和计算机界面方面，这款工具感觉像是用户体验演进的开端。
When it comes to file management and computer interfaces, this tool feels like the start of a pleasant user experience evolution.
你对这个怎么看？
What do you think about this?
我的意思是，这基本上就是我们周五讨论的内容，现在它真的实现了。
I mean, this is basically the thing that we discussed on Friday, and now it's come to life.
我们之前讨论过，对于新听众，简单说明一下背景：我在writerwriter.com工作，几个月来我一直谈论我们的一款产品——WriterAgent。
What we've discussed and and for for newer listeners, just for context, I work at writerwriter.com, and I've been speaking for months now about one of our products, WriterAgent.
我们只面向企业客户，但本质上，它就是这样一款产品。
We're only enterprise focused, but, basically, it is this.
它利用自然语言来启动多步骤工作流。
It's using natural language to take multi to launch multistep workflows.
你给它提供工具、数据集和连接器——虽然上周之前我们没用过‘harness’这个词，但我之前说过，然后AI就会去完成工作。
You give it the harness, which is the word had we not used prior to last week, but I had said you give it the tools and the datasets and the connectors, and the AI goes and does the work.
对我来说，我其实一直在寻找这样的东西。
And to me, I actually was trying to find it.
我想大概是四个月前吧。
I think it was, like, four months ago.
我说那是我第一次感受到AGI——我认为这就是真正的AGI，因为它真的在主动做事。
I said it was the first time I felt AGI, what I think could be AGI, that it actually is going out and doing stuff.
我关掉电脑，它在后台为我工作，完成各种任务。
I'm turning off my computer, and in the background, it's working for me and doing stuff.
而且，老兄，我已经好几周甚至好几个月都在跟你说这个了。
And, dude, I've been trying to tell you this is for for weeks now or months.
我真的有这种感觉。
Like, I have felt this.
所以看到Claude进入这个领域真的让我很兴奋，因为Claude Code已经在软件开发领域做到了这一点，我并不是说只针对软件开发者，因为很多非开发者也已经在使用它了。
So it it was actually kind of exciting for me to see Claude get into this space Because Claude Code has done this for software development, and I'm not saying just only for software developers because plenty of nondevelopers have been building on it.
但那种真正自主完成工作的体验，已经在代码编写方面得到了验证。
But that feeling of actual autonomous work being done has been kind of checked off for code build coding.
但我已经在知识工作中见过这种场景了，而且上周我确实看到了。
But I've already seen that with knowledge work, and and now what is actually I've already seen the last week.
现在解释我想表达的内容变得容易多了，因为CoWork正在定义这个类别。
It's so much easier to explain what I'm trying to, because co work is kinda defining this category.
所以，再次强调，把文档、文字、网页搜索、电子表格和Python脚本整合在一起，真正为你完成工作。
So so, again, the idea of taking documents and words and web search and spreadsheets and Python scripts and putting it all together to actually get to do something for you for work.
我觉得，这正是我在去年12月做出的预测。
I think, like, this was my prediction, December.
我认为这将成为今年最大的趋势之一。
I think this is gonna be one of the biggest trends of the year.
这虽然对我自己的工作有利，但我真的认为我们将看到这个转折点。
It's self serving for my own work, but I really think it's we're gonna see this inflection point.
而且我特别喜欢的是，就在我们聊完之后，克莱德立刻给我发了消息。
And and I love that Claude, literally after we talked about it, Alex texted me.
他问：‘你看到这个了吗？’
He's like, do you see this?
他们做到了。
They did it.
他们做到了。
They did it.
他们听进去了我们的意见。
They listened to us.
他们说这东西只用了一周半就做出来了。
They said it was only built in a week and a half.
他们听我们的了。
They listened to us.
对。
Right.
你最初说我这个想法是受我们启发的，还嘲笑我说这东西一天半就做出来了。
You initially I said this was this was inspired by us, and you initially mocked me by saying it was done in a day and a half.
但后来我找到了这个细节。
But then I found that detail.
是用了一周半。
It was week and a
一周半。
week and a half.
是的。
Yeah.
这倒是没错。
Which okay.
这并不是来自上周的节目，但还是。
It wasn't from last week's show, but still.
但我想要问你关于这个。
But I wanna ask you about this.
好的。
Okay.
所以是云代码。
So Cloud Code.
我们知道云代码是做什么的。
We know what Cloud Code does.
对吧？
Right?
它就像是五重编码。
It's like five coding.
你告诉它去做一些事情，它会帮你构建等等。
You tell it to do things that will go build it for you, etcetera, etcetera.
协同工作。
Cowork.
好的。
Alright.
这是首次演示。
Here was the demo of the debut.
人工智能将会议记录输入，然后提供如何在会议中更有效的建议。
The AI put a, meeting meeting transcripts, took meeting transcripts in, and it gave advice about how to be more effective in meetings.
它有一个可以搜索日历的工具。
It had a tool that searched calendars.
它能生成定制的幻灯片演示文稿。
It prepared custom slide decks.
我读过的某些评论者也说它在文件整理方面很不错。
Some of the reviewers that I read also said it was nice for file organization.
为什么你需要一个独立的应用来实现这些功能？
Why do you need a separate app for this?
所以，好吧。
So So okay.
为什么你不能直接在Claude窗口里完成所有操作呢？
Why why can't you just do it all in the Claude window?
顺便说一下，我被批评了。
I got bashed, by the way.
也不是批评。
Not bashed.
我们其实收到了一些礼貌的反馈，我上周只是想弄清楚，为什么你会选择用Claude代码而不是在聊天窗口里做这件事。
We we got some polite criticism of my I I was just trying to tease out last week why you would wanna do something with Claude code versus in the chatbot window.
但这次，我真的不明白，为什么你不直接在聊天窗口里完成呢。
But for this one, I legitimately don't understand why you wouldn't just do it in the chatbot window.
我的意思是，从竞争的角度来看，作为我们公司产品Writer Agent的负责人，我们一直在测试和观察它。
I mean, I I can tell you, like, from a competitive standpoint for writer agent, the product of my company, like, we've been testing it, looking at it.
我确实觉得，本地文件访问和管理这一块有点有趣又令人困惑，因为，谁还会用文件呢？
I am genuinely like, the file local file access and management side of it is a bit interesting and confusing to me because, like, who uses files?
我不知道。
I don't know.
就像，软件开发者会这么做，所以我觉得它被设计成这样是有原因的。
Like, I software developers do, which is why I think it was kind of built like that.
因为否则的话，我不知道。
Because otherwise, like, I don't know.
我不认识谁会把本地文件整理成文件夹，大家都只有一个难以管理的下载文件夹和文档文件夹。
I don't know anyone who organizes local files in folders, and everyone just has a downloads folder and a documents folder that are unwieldy.
也许如果Claude Cowork能帮他们解决这个问题。
And maybe if Claude Claude Cowork helps them with that.
我觉得，如果这是他们的最小可行产品，那可能只是作为一个差异化且有趣的起点。
I do think if it's, like, kind of their MVP, maybe it was just something differentiated and interesting to start with.
但再说一次，我认为非技术人员能够用自然语言构建能为他们做事的工具，这才是2026年的事。
But but, again, I think the idea of nontechnical people being able to use natural language to build stuff that does stuff for them, that's 2026.
而且今年人们就会开始看到这一前景的潜力，而协同工作无疑会成为它的起点。
And and that that people are gonna start seeing the promise of that this year, and and co work is definitely gonna be a starting point for it.
但如果它只用了一周半时间开发出来，你知道，那它在发布时能有多好呢？
But if it was built in a week and a half, you know, I mean, how good is it really gonna be at launch?
是的。
Yes.
所以我会说，我对Cowork的使用场景还没完全信服，但也许我错了。
So I'll say I'm not fully bought in on the Cowork use case, but I could be wrong.
我的意思是，大多数这类东西最初都显得微不足道，对吧？
I mean, this it starts most of these things start as seeming trivial and then right?
比如，即使你想想文本输入，它一开始只是自动补全，然后就开始自己主动完成了。
Like, if even if you think about text, it starts as autocomplete, and then it just starts to do it on its own.
所以也许我们会看到类似的演变。
So maybe we see a similar evolution.
但在我们继续之前，我想和你聊聊这个想法。
But, you know, before we go, I wanna talk with you about this idea.
我刚在《大科技》上写了一篇关于这项技术如何被采纳的文章。
I just wrote about it in big technology, about the way that this technology adoption is going.
在我看来，人工智能的采用似乎呈现出两条不同的发展路径。
And it seems to me like there's two different sort of diverging trajectories of AI adoption.
第一条是组织层面的。
And the first is at the organization level.
即使公司急于实施人工智能，也遇到了各种问题。
So even if companies are eager to implement AI, they've run into all these problems.
它们有着我们之前讨论过的根深蒂固的组织习惯、安全考量，以及在大规模应用时技术本身的局限性。
They have entrenched organizational habits like we talked about, security considerations, and then the technology's limits when being applied at a wide scale.
所以，这是其中一个发展方向。
So that's one direction this is going.
正因为如此，从上至下的角度来看，企业对人工智能的采用进展缓慢。
And because of that, we've seen slow adoption among enterprises from a top down perspective.
而在另一端，则是个体用户。
Then on the other side, you have individuals.
个体用户并不会像企业那样受到这些相同问题的牵制。
Now individuals, they aren't encumbered by many of these same issues that the enterprises are.
他们拥有独特的一组数据权限。
They have a unique set of data permissions.
他们可以改变自己的习惯，而且不需要征得任何人的许可。
They can change their own habits, and they don't really need to ask permission to do so.
而且当他们遇到技术的局限时，能够灵活适应。
And they also like, when they come up against the technology's limitations, they're able to adapt.
因此，与其说是技术由企业自上而下地采用，不如说是个人在某种程度上自下而上地采用了这项技术。
And so we have instead of, like, this technology be being adopted by enterprises and pushed down, it's being adopted by individuals in some way and pushed up.
我在我的文章中称之为，我们正处在一个个人赋权的时代，你会开始看到个人表现上的真正分化，可能比以往任何时候都更明显，而组织正受到那些使用这些工具的人的压力。
And I I'm calling it I called in my post the we're in this age of individual empowerment where, you know, you're gonna start to see a real divergence in terms of individual performance, probably more than we've ever seen it happen before, and organizations begun to be pressed by the people that are using these tools.
这可能会让一些组织感到有点奇怪或不安，因为他们基本上没能成功推进试点项目，但与此同时，却有员工自下而上地高效使用了这项技术，正在改变游戏规则。
And and it's gonna be maybe it'll be a little bit weird on or uneasy, you know, in organizations that have basically failed to roll out their pilots, but they have people coming from the bottom up who have used this technology very effectively and are sort of changing the game.
你对这个观点有什么看法？
What is your perspective on that thesis?
这其实就是我每天生活的写照。
I and I I've this is, like, my life on a day to day basis.
所以我认为你是对的，真正会推动这一切的是那些理解并会使用Claude Cowork的人，这会让我的生活变得更轻松，因为当他们打开WriterAgent并讨论公司采用它时，他们已经知道该怎么做。
So I think you are correct in that it's going to be people who understand the it's people who are going to be playing with Claude Cowork will make my life even easier because when they open WriterAgent and we're talking about their company adopting it, they already know what to do.
事实上，Claude Code已经某种程度上教会了这种工作方式。
In fact, like Claude Code already kinda taught that way of working.
我认为，我们其实已经很久以前就看到这种趋势了。
I think, like, we've already seen it for a long time.
我认识的每个人现在都在使用ChatGPT或Gemini。
I everyone is using ChatGPT now or Gemini that I know.
实际上，另一个可能发生在2025年的重大趋势是：自主编码已经得到解决，而每个人都在使用LLM聊天也已经普及。
That was actually another maybe 2025, the two big trends were coding autonomously got solved, and everyone using LLM chat got solved.
今年，所有好奇且具有前瞻思维的人都将开始尝试构建这种自主工作流程。
Again, this year, people like, everyone curious and forward looking is gonna start doing this kind of autonomous workflow building.
我经常想到的是，大约一年半到两年前，人们常说：不是AI会夺走你的工作。
What I always think about is, like, I think a year and a half ago, two years ago, you know the saying, it's not AI that will take your job.
而是会使用AI的人会夺走你的工作。
It's someone who uses AI will take your job.
人们这么说，试图让它听起来像是原创且有洞察力的，但我认为今年，我们将会真正看到这方面的显著分化。
And people say that and try to make it sound like it's original and insightful, but I think this year, we're gonna start to really, really see divergence in that.
如果你能学会如何让AI为你工作，那你的优势将远远超越同事。
Like, it's just so much more powerful if you figure out how to get AI to do work for you that you will just be leaps and bounds ahead of your coworkers.
我亲眼看到了这一点。
It's like, I see it firsthand.
我亲身感受到了这一点。
I feel it firsthand.
所以，我觉得今年将会——我不知道。
So, like, I think this year is gonna I don't know.
问题？
Problems?
那到底会发生什么？
What what is gonna happen exactly in that?
但今年一定会发生。
But it's gonna happen this year.
我问你一个问题。
Let me ask you this.
在这一轮职场应用的初期，很多公司看到ChatGPT后，就说：我们需要把它用在我们的业务上。
So in the beginning of this, like, workplace rollout, you had a lot of companies who, like, saw ChatGPT, and they said, we need ChatGPT for what we do.
他们把ChatGPT用在了各种各样的问题上。
And they threw it at a lot of different problems.
他们用它来提升效率和流程、从数据中提取洞察、自动化一些测试，并且以为可以自上而下地在公司推行。
They threw it at, you know, adding efficiency and processes, drawing insights from data, automating some tests, and they thought they could do that company top down.
所以，我很好奇，这种做法会完全消失吗？还是会逐渐演变成个人自行使用这些工具？
So basically, I'm curious, is that gonna just disappear, and is it just gonna dissolve into, like, individuals using these these tools?
还是说，你的意思是，当你成为个人用户后，反而可能成为组织内的倡导者，鼓励其他人使用企业级工具？
Or what or is what you're saying that basically when when you become a personal user, you could sort of become a champion within the organization and encourage other people to use the enterprise tool?
是的。
Yeah.
就连我们自己也看到这种情况，我的意思是，我们的工具就是围绕这种协作设计的。
Even we see it like, I mean, that's like our tool is built around collaboration on this.
但本质上，仍然是个人在构建东西，然后分享出去，供他人使用。
It's like but it's still individuals building things that then get shared out and are used by others.
所以这仍然是群体内部那些倡导者或领导者的作用。
So it's still kind of like those champions or leaders within a group.
总是很有趣，你会看到谁脱颖而出，去做这件事。
And it's always, like, an interesting who you see kind of rise up and do that.
而且通常不是纯粹的技术人员或纯粹的业务人员，而是两者的结合。
And and it's typically not pure tech people, pure biz it's some hybrid of the two.
大概就是一些好奇心强的人吧。
It's just kinda curious people, I guess.
比如，我甚至看到有人用 Claude 编写代码应用，像乔·魏森塔尔和凯文·赖特这样的人都在这么做。
Like, I I mean, I even saw, like like, the it's funny, like, who I've seen vibe coding Claude code apps, even, like, Joe Wiesenthal and Kevin Right.
你会看到那些充满好奇心的人，我认为今年正是这类人最能理解并开始使用这些工具，这会迫使其他人跟进，因为如果你所在的组织不采用这些工具，你就不想待在那里，而最优秀的人才正是如此。
Like, you see, like, people who just you've have seen are curious, and that's the kind of person I think that is gonna get it this year and, and start kinda and and it'll force people, because also people, if you're at an organization that doesn't adopt it, you don't wanna work there, and it's gonna be the most talented people.
所以我认为，今年所有这些文化冲突都将达到顶点。
So I think that that all that kind of culture clashing will really come to a head this year.
你知道我把这些早期采用者叫什么吗？
You know what I'm calling these these early adopters?
我叫他们‘ Harness Hive ’。
I'm calling them the harness hive.
Harness。
Harness.
Harness，我们来好好琢磨一下这个词。
Harness harness let's work on that one.
我们没法再改进了。
Let's Can't improve on
就这样吧。
that.
一定会发生的。
Gonna happen.
Harness，也许他们为团队和组织搭建了这些工具。
Harness is Maybe They they build the harnesses for the teams and the organizations.
他们把它们缝合在一起。
They they sew together them.
他们用心制作它们。
They craft them in with care.
他们是更像造 Harness 的人，而不是蜂群。
They're the harness builders more than the hive.
这必须要有头韵。
It has to have alliteration.
Harness Hive。
Harness hive.
好吧。
Alright.
从现在起，我就把我们的听众称为这个，因为上周我收到了如此热烈和充满激情的关于 Harness 的反馈。
That's what I'm gonna call our listeners from now on, given the dramatic and effusive pro pro harness feedback I got after last week.
我们要感谢我们的听众，因为你们是 Harness 团队的一员，毕竟亚历克斯不是，但我们
It was we're I'm thank you to our listeners for for being team Harness over here because god knows Alex isn't, but but we
能说出来。
will to able say it.
我能说‘harness hive’。
I can say harness hive.
你根本说不出来。
You can't even say it.
我也说不了‘harness hive’。
I can't say harness hive, though.
这太过分了。
That's too far.
这太过分了。
That's too far.
在说‘harness hive’之前，我会先开个折叠手机的玩笑。
I'll make a folding phone joke before pun before I I say harness hive here.
也许这是宇宙在暗示我这个周末该下线了。
Maybe this might be the universe encouraging me to log off for the weekend.
所以，拉詹，一如既往很高兴你能来。
So, Ranjan, great to have you on as always.
非常感谢
Really appreciate
把这一切带到达沃斯。
it.
把这一切带到达沃斯。
Bring bring all of this to Davos.
这就是我唯一的要求。
That's all I ask.
你说到下周和德米斯一起能说多少次‘harness’？
You say how many times can you say harness with Demis next week?
我不打算说，但在结束前我再讲一次。
I'm not saying it, but I'll say it one more time as we sign off.
好吧，harness hive。
Alright, harness hive.
感谢你一如既往地加入我们。
Thanks for joining us as always.
很高兴有你。
Great having you.
我们感激你每周抽出时间陪伴我们。
We appreciate your time and companionship with us every week.
谢谢你来到这里。
So thank you for being here.
下周是科技播客节目非常密集的一周。
Next week, very intense week of big technology podcast shows.
如果你在达沃斯，请周二晚上一定来高通展台和谷歌展台找我们，和德米斯一起。
If you're at Davos, please do come say hi at the Qualcomm house and at the Google house on Tuesday night with with Demis.
但接下来是主要内容。
But here's here's the rundown.
周一我们将邀请高通首席执行官克里斯蒂亚诺·阿曼。
We're gonna have Cristiano Aman on Monday, the CEO of Qualcomm.
那可能会在周二播出。
That will run probably on Tuesday.
然后我会采访西拉公司的首席执行官布雷特·泰勒。
Then I'll be interviewing Brett Taylor, CEO of Sierra.
德米斯·哈萨比斯，谷歌DeepMind的首席执行官。
Demis Esabas, CEO of Google DeepMind.
科赫公司的首席人工智能官乔尔·皮纳奥，以及周四谷歌DeepMind的首席运营官莉拉·易卜拉欣。
Joel Piniao, the chief AI officer of Cohere, and then, again, the COO of Google DeepMind on Thursday, Lila Ibrahim.
我们下周至少会发布其中两期，然后兰詹和我将在周五回归，其余的将在之后几周陆续放出。
We're gonna put at least two of those on the feed on next week, and then Ranjan and I will be back on Friday, and then the rest will come out in the weeks following.
谢谢，兰詹。
Thank you, Ranjan.
感谢大家收听和观看，我们下次再见于《大科技播客》。
Thank you everybody for listening and watching, and we'll see you next time on big technology podcast.
把握高价值。
Harness high valve.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。