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我是迈克尔·刘易斯。
Michael Lewis here.
我的畅销书《大空头》讲述了2008年美国房地产市场泡沫形成与破裂的故事。
My best selling book, The Big Short, tells the story of the buildup and birth of The US housing market back in 2008.
十年前，《大空头》被拍成了获得奥斯卡奖的电影，现在我首次将它作为有声书推出，由我亲自朗读。
A decade ago, The Big Short was made into an Academy Award winning movie, and now I'm bringing it to you for the first time as an audiobook narrated by yours truly.
《大空头》的故事——关于押注市场下跌的意义，以及谁真正为失控的金融体系买单——如今比以往任何时候都更相关。
The Big Short story, what it means to bet against the market, and who really pays for an unchecked financial system, is as relevant today as it's ever been.
现在就前往 pushkin.fm/audiobooks 或任何有声书销售平台获取《大空头》。
Get the Big Short now at pushkin.fm/audiobooks or wherever audiobooks are sold.
Meta收购AI初创公司Manus，具体是为了做什么？
Meta is buying AI startup Manus to do what exactly?
Grok会脱掉人的衣服并道歉。
Grok undresses people and apologizes.
谁该为此负责？
Who's responsible?
为什么这么多年轻人转向预测市场和体育博彩？
And why are so many young people turning to prediction markets and sports betting?
这里有一个理论。
Here's a theory.
这将在周五的大型科技播客节目中播出，就在本节目之后。
That's coming up on a big technology podcast Friday edition right after this.
欢迎收听大型科技播客周五版，我们将以一贯冷静而细致的方式解析新闻。
Welcome to big technology podcast Friday edition where we break down the news in our traditional cool headed and nuanced format.
今天我们为大家准备了一场精彩的节目，正式开启2026年。
We have a great show for you today as we kick off 2026.
我们将讨论Meta为何收购AI代理初创公司Manus。
We're gonna talk about why Meta is buying the AI agent startup Manus.
我们将讨论Grok。
We're gonna talk about Grok.
我甚至不会说它失控了，但基本上它只是在遵循Twitter上人们的提示，进行所谓的‘比基尼化’——如果这个词成立的话——脱掉人的衣服，然后事后道歉，那么谁该为此负责？
I wouldn't even say going rogue, but basically following the prompts of people on Twitter and bikiniifying, if that's a word, and, undressing people and then apologizing afterwards and Who's responsible for that?
我们还将深入探讨一篇名为《财务平庸的牢笼》的精彩文章，解释为何如此多的人转向体育博彩和预测市场。
And then we'll also take a look at, a great piece called the prison of financial mediocrity and and an explanation for why so many people are turning to sports, gambling, sports betting, and prediction markets.
和往常一样，在新的一年伊始，为我们带来分析的是Margins的Ranjan Roy。
And joining us as always to do it here as we kick off the year is Ranjan Roy of margins.
Ranjan，很高兴见到你。
Ranjan, great to see you.
我也很高兴见到你。
Great to see you.
新年快乐。
Happy New Year.
Alex，你现在在世界的哪个地方？
Where in the world are you, Alex?
跟我们的听众说说吧。
Tell our listeners.
新年。
New Year.
我在秘鲁。
I am in, Peru.
在南美洲的这几周过得相当精彩，再待几天就回纽约了。
It's been a pretty wild, couple of weeks in South America, couple more days here, and then back to New York.
你呢？
How about you?
你的圣诞节假期过得怎么样？
How's your Christmas break been?
过得很好。
It's been great.
我终于回到纽约了。
I'm, back in New York finally.
我去了新英格兰度假，待在波士顿和新罕布什尔滑雪，度过了一个非常愉快的假期。
I was in I was I had a very nice New England holiday vacation up in Boston, the New Hampshire skiing.
不过，我很期待重新投入工作。
So excited to get back to it, though.
我们俩都遇到了Meta Ray-Ban的失败，接下来在讨论Meta这一部分时我们会谈到这一点，稍后就会说到。
And we both had Meta Ray Ban's fails, which we're gonna talk about as we go through this Meta, segment here, and we'll get to that in a moment.
但我认为过去一周最大的新闻是，Meta以超过20亿美元收购了AI初创公司Manus。
But I think the biggest news over the past week has been that Meta bought the AI startup Manus for more than $2,000,000,000.
据《华尔街日报》报道，Meta Platforms已同意收购Manus，这是一家由华人创始人创立、总部位于新加坡的公司，为付费用户提供深度研究和其他服务。
According to the Wall Street Journal, Meta Platforms has agreed to buy Manus, a Singapore based company with Chinese founders that conducts deep research and performs other tasks for paying users.
这笔交易的成交价超过20亿美元。
The deal is being closed at more than $2,000,000,000.
Manus在三月首次展示了一款AI代理，能够利用Anthropic和中国阿里巴巴等公司开发的AI模型生成详细的研究报告并构建定制网站，此后迅速获得了广泛关注。
Manus gained a wide following after previewing in March an AI agent capable of producing detailed research reports and building custom websites using AI models developed by companies such as Anthropic and China's Alibaba.
这一演示紧随中国AI公司DeepSeek的发布之后，DeepSeek因其先进功能震撼了硅谷，其开发者还声称，该模型的开发所用的计算资源远少于美国竞争对手。
The demo followed the release of DeepSeek, made in China AI that rocked Silicon Valley because of its advanced capabilities, coupled with claims by its developer that it was developed with far less computing power than American rivals.
我认为，对于密切关注AI领域的人来说，我们都记得Manus AI代理是这家公司最引人注目的亮点，而《华尔街日报》在报道开头提及中国背景时，似乎也带着一丝暗示。
I think for those who follow AI closely, we all remember the Manus AI agent as sort of the highlight of this company with, like, the the journal kind of winked at, as it highlighted the China connection, at the beginning of this story.
但我其实很想听听你的看法，拉詹，关于这件事。
But I'm actually curious to hear your perspective, Ranjan, on this one.
你觉得Meta这家消费公司收购专注于企业级和AI代理的Manus，其意义何在？
What do you think the significance is of Meta, a consumer company buying Manus, which seems enterprise focused and and AI agent focused?
这里到底发生了什么？
What's happening here?
你有什么理论或见解吗？
Do you have any theory of the case?
是的。
Yeah.
这完全在我的专业领域内。
So this is very squarely in my world.
对于长期听众来说，我在Ryder工作，这是一家专注于企业级AI的公司。
And for longtime listeners, I work at Ryder, which is an enterprise AI focused company.
差不多六个月前，我们正在争论，因为我说，AI代理的定义正在被重新塑造？
And and almost six months ago, we were debating because I was saying, what is an AI agent is being redefined?
它不再是那些由模块拼接而成的蓝图了。
It's no longer these kind of blueprints with blocks stitched together.
但事实上，这其实就是定义工具、连接器、给出提示，然后让代理自行运作。
But in reality, it's just kind of like defining tools, connectors, giving a prompt, and letting the agent go do its thing.
我认为今年——这是我上周的一个预测。
And I think this is the year well, this was one of my predictions last week.
今年将是代理式AI的愿景真正实现、展现其力量的一年。
This is a year that that vision of what a agentic AI is is gonna be realized, the power of it.
所以我认为Manus只是另一个案例，它在消费端和企业端之间确实拥有相当多的用户。
So I think Manus is is just another they definitely had one of the more popular somewhere between consumer and enterprise.
但仍然更偏向消费端。
Still more consumer focused.
你每月只需支付大约30美元就能使用。
You can get on there for, like, $30 a month.
但关键在于，你能快速完成任务，定义这些真正能运行的工作流，我认为这将成为竞争的核心。
But still, the idea that you can do things very quickly and and define these workflows that actually start to work, and I think we're that's that's gonna be the battleground.
OpenAI最近也在积极招聘，全面进军企业市场。
OpenAI is getting involved on with all their enterprise focused, hires recently.
我觉得这将是2026年最重要的部分之一，而且这也是自助式的。
Like, I think this is gonna be one of the biggest parts of 2026, and that's self serving as well.
但我觉得有趣的是，你刚才提到的最后一点：为什么Meta要收购他们？
But but I think what's interesting is that last point you brought up is that why is Meta buying them?
说实话，我一直在苦思冥想，却搞不懂这如何能整合进他们的产品中。
And honestly, I was racking my head, and I don't understand how this gets integrated into the product.
这个产品看起来并不会帮助消费者预订航班。
The product, it's like, this isn't gonna be helping consumers, you know, book their flight.
还记得当初人人都说智能代理会是用来做这个的吗？
That remember when that was what everyone said AgenTic would be?
这完全是另一回事。
This is something different.
它将更侧重于工作和企业场景。
It is gonna be more work and enterprise focused.
所以这部分仍然让我困惑，除了亚历山大·王跑去对马克说，这人很聪明。
So that part still leaves me guessing other than Alexander Wang and just went to Mark and said, this person's smart.
你可以以25亿美元的价格收购他们，这不仅仅是支付给一位研究员十亿美元。
You can buy them for 2 and a half billion, and it's not just paying a researcher a billion dollars.
好的。
Okay.
所以我对这件事有一些想法。
So I have some some thoughts on this.
首先，Manus团队似乎并不会向亚历山大·王汇报。
So first of all, the Manus team doesn't even seem like it's going to be reporting Alexander Wang.
他们将向Meta的首席运营官汇报，这一点在最初的故事中就已经提到了。
It's gonna be reporting to Meta's chief operating officer, which is something that the story said in the beginning.
在公告中，Meta表示，我们计划将这项服务扩展到更多企业。
In the release, Meta said, we plan to scale the service the service to many more businesses.
我认为这是一种误导。
My belief is that is a head fake.
我认为Meta正在布局一个大型的消费者智能代理项目。
I think Meta is making a big consumer agent play.
他们认为Manus团队的人知道如何做到这一点。
They think the people at Manus know how to do this.
他们认为，在未来几年里，特别是如果你说得对，拉詹，AI代理技术开始发挥作用时，消费者会想要使用一个能够很好地处理旅行预订场景的应用程序。
They think that over the coming years, like, especially if you're right, Ranjan, and that the AI agent stuff will start to work, consumers are gonna wanna go to an app that's going to be able to handle that travel booking scenario for them pretty well.
我认为Meta在这里做了一件非常聪明的事，因为它意识到这将成为竞争优势。
And I think Meta is doing something really smart here, which is it realizes that's going to be a competitive edge.
这将成为一个差异化优势。
It's going to be a differentiator.
最先获得信用卡的公司可能会率先将这种消费者行为融入他们的AI代理中，而这正是他们所追求的。
The people that get the credit cards first are probably gonna be the ones that, you know, start to embed that consumer behavior in their AI agent, and that's what they're going after.
请注意，这个说法非常有趣。
And notice how the statement's very interesting.
我们计划将这项服务扩展到更多企业。
We plan to scale the service to many more businesses.
也许他们确实会这么做。
Maybe they'll do that.
但最终，我认为这里有趣的地方在于他们没说什么——是的，他们可能会将这项服务扩展到更多企业，但本质上，这是他们进入苹果智能所瞄准领域的策略：构建一个AI平台，打造人们愿意使用的、能替他们完成任务的应用，并向世界表明：虽然一开始我们显得更企业化，但真正的发展方向其实是消费级应用。
But, ultimately, I think the interesting thing here is what they do, what they didn't say, which is that, yes, they might scale it to some more businesses, but, ultimately, this is a way of them getting into this a this you know, the the space where Apple Intelligence wanted to play, build the AI platform, build the thing that people wanna use that gets things done for them and tell the world that, yeah, this is more enterprise y as you come out the gate, really, though, developing the consumer application here.
如果你掌握了这个平台，那你就会赢。
And if you own that platform, then you're gonna win.
我太喜欢这个了。
I love this.
好吧。
Okay.
你知道吗？
You know what?
我开始越来越有这种感觉了，因为对我来说，看到代理式AI以这种方式迅速发展，最令人惊叹的一点就是，它让许多我日常做的基础事情变得简单多了。
I'm starting to I'm starting to feel that a bit more because to me, one of the most kind of, like, amazing parts of how quickly seeing agentic AI evolve in this way is, like, it just makes so many basic things I do regularly a lot easier.
比如，当你收到某位发件人的邮件时，去研究这个人，调查这家公司，然后给我发个Slack通知。
Like, when you receive an email from this one recipient, go research this person, go research this company, send me a Slack notification.
这些事情我已经完全融入了我的生活，但都是在专业场景下。
Like, that's all stuff I have fully built into my life, but professionally.
因此，在消费端有巨大的机会，但你说得对。
So there's so much opportunity around that on the consumer side, but yet, you're right.
谁真正有经济动力去在自己的产品中推动这一点呢？
Who has who has the actual, like, economic incentive to actually push this within their product?
OpenAI 不断提到格雷格·布罗克曼，他又发推说：企业级智能体AI的采用和科学研究是今年最重要的两大趋势。
OpenAI keeps saying the word Greg Brockman again tweeted, enterprise agentic AI adoption and scientific research are the two most important trends of the year.
所以，大家都把消费级智能体AI放在一边了，而你说得对。
So like, so everyone is just leaving consumer agentic to the wayside, and you're right.
Apple Intelligence，我们都懂。
Apple intelligence, I mean, we all know.
好吧。
So okay.
我喜欢这一点。
I like that.
Manus 的用户界面非常非常流畅。
And Manus is very, very slick in terms of its UI.
它非常用户友好。
It's very user friendly.
所以如果有什么东西更适合消费者而非企业，我觉得一定是他们。
So if something could be more consumer than enterprise, I think it could definitely be them.
我喜欢它。
I like it.
你需要这个。
And you need that.
你需要这些专业知识才能去做到这一点。
You need that specialized knowledge to be able to go do that.
我的意思是，Meta招聘了整个超级智能团队，他们的任务就是打造最好的模型。
I mean, Meta had brought this whole superintelligence team aboard, and, like, their task is, like, build the best model.
但归根结底，这最终还是要落实到产品上。
But, ultimately, this is, again, going to product.
这就是你将这些技术产品化的方式。
This is how you productize these things.
我不认为这只是一个巧合：前Facebook应用负责人VG Simo如今坐在OpenAI内部，思考如何构建一个广告平台。
And I don't think it's any coincidence that this is happening as VG Simo, the former head of Facebook app, is sitting inside OpenAI and thinking about how to build an ad platform.
不仅如此，当你在OpenAI内部用ChatGPT搜索信息时，会出现一些新的功能——我不知道该称它们为‘卡片’还是什么，但它们能帮你更深入地浏览信息，辅助你做出购买决策。
And not only that, when you start to research things in OpenAI, within ChatGPT, there are new I don't know if you would call them maybe, like, cards that will help you do more browsing for things that you might make a purchase decision on.
就我个人而言，我相信任何使用过这类工具——比如用ChatGPT规划假期的人——都会有同感。
I know for myself personally, and I'm sure anyone that used these tools, like tools like ChatGPT to plan, you know, their their winter breaks.
对我来说，游览南美洲时，ChatGPT起到了至关重要的作用。
I mean, for me, going through South America, ChatGPT was super important.
它是一个关键性的工具。
It was a pivotal tool.
但当时我缺少的一步是，直接说：好吧。
And the one thing that was missing for was for me to just say, alright.
这个选项听起来不错。
That sounds like the right option.
那就直接预订吧。
Go ahead and book it.
如果Meta的模型能够达到这种有用的程度，代理功能也能达到这种实用水平，那么Meta的AI努力就会从一种可笑的状态转变为真正的参与者——就连扬·莱库恩今天在《金融时报》中也说，他们对Llama 4的基准测试数据做了些手脚。
And if Meta's models can get to the point where they're helpful in this way and and the agentic side of things can get to the point that they're useful in this way, then all of a sudden, Meta's AI effort goes from something that's kind of laughable, something that Jan Lecun, even today in the financial times, is saying, you know, they they fudge the benchmarks in a way for llama four.
他们一下子从被嘲笑的对象变成了重要的竞争者。
They they go from that to becoming a player.
不过，这里有很多假设。
Now there's a lot of ifs here.
对吧？
Right?
我多次用了‘如果’，但归根结底，如果他们真在这么做，这似乎是一个明智的策略。
I said if a lot of times, but, ultimately, it seems to me like if this is what they're doing, it's a sound strategy.
是的。
Yeah.
更重要的是，我们甚至别谈你是否真的预订了去南美洲的航班或旅行团？
Even more I think let's not even talk about are you actually booking that flight to South America or that tour?
如果你仔细想想，购物、旅行、任何面向消费者的领域，乃至健康、个人健康等方面，你都会不断提出这类重复性的问题，或进行持续性的对话。
Like, if you start to think about it, there's so many elements with shopping, with travel, with anything consumer focused, with health, with, like, personal health, where you're asking these kind of recurring routine questions or have these ongoing conversations.
与其不得不去打开ChatGPT并记得输入，你现在正在刷Instagram和Facebook，只需要多一个模块，哦，对了。
And rather than having to go to ChatGPT and remember to type it in, you're already scrolling Instagram and Facebook, and now you just have one additional block that's like, oh, yeah.
你想接着我们刚才的话题继续吗？
Do you wanna pick up where we left off?
我刚发现另一篇对你有帮助的文章，或者另一个航班提醒，你要我帮你订吗？
I actually just found this other article that would be useful for you or this other flight alert that do you want me to go book it?
所以，一旦你已经被锁定在这个界面里，事情就开始变得相当有趣了。
So, like, having you already locked into that interface does start to get pretty interesting.
我们接下来要聊聊亚当·莱塞里，以及他谈到的动态信息流中的AI。
We're gonna get into Adam Lesseri and what he was talking about, like AI within the feed.
但如果这是发展方向，我现在觉得这真的挺有意思的。
But if this is the direction, I'm starting to find this pretty interesting right now.
好的。
Alright.
我还有一个想法想说说。
Have one more thought about this.
你提到代理会主动出击并建议：嘿。
You mentioned the agent going proactive and suggesting, hey.
记得，我们在讨论这个。
Remember, were talking about this.
你对这个怎么看？
What do you think about this?
这听起来像什么？
What does that sound like?
这不是一个等待被打造的绝佳广告业务吗？Meta 完全可以基于现有的基础来构建它？
Isn't that a great ad business waiting to be built, and Meta can definitely build it on the foundation that it has?
没错。
Exactly.
Meta 已经在他们的信息流中塞满了大量广告，而所有人都对此习以为常。
And Meta's already stuffed their feeds full of plenty of ads, and everyone is totally okay with it.
而且这并没有减缓趋势。
And it has not slowed down.
即使广告负载增加，人们还是越来越多地使用这些产品。
Even as ad load increases, everyone just uses the products more and more.
所以如果有人能这么做，如果这已经与他们所使用的平台天然契合，而不是我一听到ChatGPT在聊天中这么说就会感到震惊，显然Meta介入这个领域是个不错的选择。
So if anyone can do it, if it's already native to what that platform they're using versus, I would be horrified the moment ChatGBT says that in the context of a chat, even more so, it seems like that's a good place for, for Meta to get involved.
我们刚刚是不是说……我真的希望这是一个策略，因为这太合理了，简直是完美的实践。
Did we just I I really hope this is a strategy because this is so sound that Practice.
如果这不是，我会很失望的。
If it's not, I'm gonna be disappointed.
奇怪的是，你说得对。
And weirdly, you're right.
Meta在引入这种商业模式方面拥有更好的起点。
Meta is at a better starting point to introduce the business model here.
没错。
Yep.
这就像是
It's like it's
它的缺点在某种程度上也是它的优势。
it's detriments are its benefit in some way.
没错。
Yep.
我的意思是，大家都已经完全习惯了广告，而且他们的广告做得不错。
I mean, everyone is completely used to advert and their advertising is good.
我们别把这一点取消了。
Let's not take that away.
他们做出了非常、非常精准的相关广告，整个假期期间都特别出色。
They have made very, very good relevant advertising that's so good all holiday season.
我所有的表亲和每个人现在都公开开玩笑说，哦，我被追踪了。
All my cousins and everyone now everyone just openly jokes like, oh, I'm getting tracked.
哦，我们刚刚还在聊这个。
Oh, we were just talking about that.
现在我就收到一大堆广告了。
Now I'm getting tons of ads.
我们点过一次，但大家都觉得没问题。
We clicked on it once, but everyone's good with it.
所以我认为，让消费者成为整个消费者代理层，颠覆所有旅游、购物和个人类的消费网站。
So I think, go consumer, become the entire consumer agentic layer, disrupt every travel and shopping and personal any kind of consumer website.
这是一个机会。
It's an opportunity.
这很可能就是即将发生的事。
That is probably what's gonna happen.
现在的问题是，随着AI越来越多，Meta的信息流会怎样？
Now the question is what happens to Meta's feeds as we see more and more AI?
你还记得不久之前，他们似乎在鼓励‘虾耶稣’和其他形式的AI垃圾内容，以及他们所鼓励的对话类型。
And and you remember not long ago, it seemed like they were encouraging Shrimp Jesus and other forms of AI slop in their feed and the type of conversations that they encourage.
现在，Instagram的负责人亚当·莫塞里正出来谈谈在AI时代，什么样的内容才能脱颖而出。
Now the head of Instagram, Adam Mosseri, is coming out and talking a little bit about what will make content stand out in the age of AI.
这是来自《商业内幕》的报道。
This is from Business Insider.
Instagram负责人表示，帮助该应用走红的美学风格已经死亡，而AI促成了它的消亡。
Instagram's head says the aesthetic that helped the app become popular is dead, and AI helped kill it.
Instagram的最高管理层认为，AI已经使社交媒体平台上精心策划的网格布局成为过去。
Instagram's top executive thinks AI has made the social media sites carefully curated grid a thing of the past.
除非你是25岁以下、使用Instagram的人，否则你可能认为这个应用是一个由方形照片组成的动态信息流。
Unless you're 25 under 25 and use Instagram, you probably think of the app as a feed of square photos.
这种美学风格讲究精致、大量化妆、皮肤磨皮、高对比度摄影和美丽的风景，莫斯塞里写道。
The aesthetic is polished, lots of makeup, skin smoothing, high contrast photography, beautiful landscapes, Mosseri wrote.
这种信息流已经死了。
That feed is dead.
多年前，人们就基本不再将个人时刻分享到信息流中了。
People largely stopped sharing personal moments to the feed years ago.
他表示，用户通过未经修饰的鞋子照片和不那么好看的抓拍照片，通过私信向朋友更新他们的个人生活。
He said that users kept their friends updated on their personal lives through unpolished shoe shots and unflattering candids shared via direct message.
莫斯塞里表示，随着AI图像的日益普及，创作者必须拥抱这一趋势，放弃精心策划的网格和专业风格的摄影，转而青睐更原始的美学。
Mosseri says the growing ubiquity of AI images meant creators would have to embrace this trend and shy oh, yeah, embrace the trend of rawness and shy away from curated grids and professional style photography in favor of a more raw aesthetic.
讨喜的图像很容易制作，但看久了却很无聊。
Flattering imagery is cheap to produce and boring to consume.
人们想要真实感强的内容。
People want content that feels real.
社交媒体动态开始充斥着合成的一切。
The social media feeds are starting to fill up with synthetic everything.
那你对这个有什么看法，拉詹？
So what's your reaction to this, Ranjan?
这似乎并不是什么全新的东西，我认为这和人工智能其实没什么关系。
It doesn't seem like it's exactly a brand new thing, and I don't think it really is AI related.
这一点让我深有感触，让我来解释为什么。
This one hit hard, and let me explain why.
我曾在Adore Me公司从事直接面向消费者的时尚和服装行业多年。
So I worked in direct to consumer fashion and apparel for a number of years at Adore Me.
2021年，马克·扎克伯格在财报电话会议上公开表示，短视频是未来，更多低保真内容。
And in 2021, Mark Zuckerberg starts openly saying on earnings calls that reels are the future, more lo fi content.
基本上，TikTok 是一个威胁，他们开始宣传你动态中短视频（Reels）比例的增加。
Basically, TikTok is a threat, and that they're starting to advertise the increase in percentage of reels on your feed.
现在我们都清楚发生了什么。
Now we all know what happened.
我清楚地记得曾与我们的创意总监发生过争执。
I vividly remember getting into an argument with our creative director.
你可以想象，一位传统的时尚创意总监被告诉，高度制作的精美图片不再是未来，未来将是低保真、短格式的视频内容。
And as you can imagine, a traditional fashion creative director being told that highly produced beautiful imagery is not the future, and it's gonna be lo fi short form video content.
我们都清楚事情是如何发展的，但我已经把这段话发给了以前的同事，因为我觉得，我们确实努力推动了，但当时的想法是，Instagram 是某种东西，然后它突然变成了完全不同的东西，而每个人却用得越来越多。
We all know how it played out, but this one just I was already sending this to former coworkers because I was like I mean, we pushed hard, but it was like that idea that Instagram was one thing, and then it became come something completely different, yet everyone uses it more and more.
再说一次，马克·扎克伯格是对的。
Again, Mark Zuckerberg was right.
我得说，这类重大的战略决策已经出现过几次了。
Like, I have to say, there's been a few of these really big strategic moves.
我不知道老一辈的人是否还记得，从 HTML5 转向原生移动应用那次重大转变，当时他们下了很大的赌注。
I don't know if the old timers will remember the shift from, like, HTML five to native mobile apps was, like, a big bet they made.
我真心觉得，他们悄悄地把这个极其盈利且吸引人的、由精美方形照片构成的引擎，转变成了一个TikTok的复制品，并且成功地做到了。
I honestly think quietly taking this incredibly profitable engaging engine of photos that are beautiful and square and turning it into a TikTok clone and just doing it and doing it successfully.
我认为，这基本上就是最终的结果了。
I think, like, this is kind of the final.
事情已经发生了。
It happened.
现在没人能否认，这就是Instagram今天的模样。
Now no one can argue that this is this is what Instagram is today.
没错。
That's right.
至于AI，这件事挺有意思，因为一方面，当我读到莫斯里说的话时，我想：‘没错。’
And the AI the AI thing is interesting because on one hand, when I read what Mosseri said, I was like, oh, yeah.
也许他有点夸大其词了，因为确实存在不少AI生成的垃圾内容。
Maybe he's exaggerating a bit because there is AI slop out there.
也许我度假拍的漂亮照片会比那尊虾做的耶稣像更好看，但你说得对。
And, like, maybe my nice pictures from my vacation will look better than the shrimp Jesus, but then you're right.
他说得很有道理，因为AI非常擅长取平均值，当你想生成一张美丽的图片时，它会从互联网上所有美丽的图片中提取平均特征。
He there is there is a lot of truth to it, which is that AI is so good at taking the average of averages, and it takes the average of, like, you know, when when you think about you know, say, you say create me a beautiful picture, it takes all these beautiful pictures that have been posted on the Internet and gives you the average of that.
所以，如果你在动态里发一张你认为很美的照片，它看起来还是会像人们反复见过的东西，甚至在AI出现之前就是这样，但AI出现后更明显了。
So if you put what you think is, like, a beautiful picture on your feed, it's just gonna look like something that people have seen over and over again, maybe even before AI, but even more so afterwards.
我现在真的在重新考虑我的度假照，我本来精心准备了一组完美的度假发帖，但现在我不确定了，我不知道该怎么做。
Now I'm really rethinking my vacay I was really cooking up a nice post post vacation, and I don't know what I'm I don't know.
也许我得发一张我的脚的照片，当然，不是脚。
I got maybe I gotta put a picture of my feet in or well, not feet.
那会很奇怪。
That would be that would be weird.
你最近买了很多袜子吗？
Did you buy a lot of socks recently?
你最近买了很多
Did you buy a lot of
是最近吗？
That was recently?
2024年的黑色星期五。
Black Friday twenty twenty four.
那是我最棒的时刻之一。
That was one of my great moments.
我还在穿那些袜子。
I'm still using those socks.
我的意思是，我希望如此。
Mean, I would hope so.
我买了24双。
I bought 24 of them.
但是
But
推荐一下你的动态吧，亚历克斯。
Feed picks, Alex.
推荐一下你的动态。
Feed picks.
不。
No.
是我，也许还有
It's I maybe And
我们都困在财务平庸的牢笼中，这一点我们稍后会讨论。
we're all in the prison of financial mediocrity, which we'll be talking about.
这是唯一的出路。
It's the only way to go.
我开始后悔把对话引向这个方向了。
I'm starting to regret taking the conversation in this direction.
不，不是的。
Well, no.
好吧。
Okay.
好吧。
Okay.
让我试着把话题拉回来。
Let let let me try to bring it back.
AI垃圾
AI slop
请讲。
Please do.
我觉得有趣的是，你刚才其实已经点出了这一点。
What I think is interesting about this is, like and you actually made the point right there.
当大家都说AI垃圾时，你会想到虾仁耶稣，想到六指婴儿，想到糟糕的内容。
When we everyone says AI slop, you think shrimp Jesus, you think six fingered baby, you think, like, crappy content.
但事实上，对我而言，AI垃圾已经成为那种平庸的美，它就是一切所期待的：吸引人、精美、高度制作的内容。
But in reality, AI slop has become, to me, that average of beautiful, that it's like what everything expects it to be engaging beautiful, highly produced.
他其实也指出，你说过，讨好的图像很容易制作，但看久了却很无聊。
And he actually made the point too that, you said flattering imagery is cheap to produce and boring to consume.
他说，这不仅仅是AI，比如MidJourney图像扩散模型。
He said that, like, it's the and and this isn't just, AI, you know, like, mid journey image diffusion models.
这是苹果公司让每张照片都经过十层处理和色彩校正。
This is Apple making every photo run through 10 layers of processing and, like, color correction.
所以，即使是这种类型的AI也促成了这种现象。
So even that that that kind of AI also has contributed to this.
但对我来说，这真的很有趣，因为AI垃圾实际上是一种美丽、无聊、通用的图像，每个人拍的都是这种，而真正吸引人的反而是真实、原始、未经修饰的东西。
But so to me, it's really interesting because it's like AI slop is actually beautiful, boring, generic imagery that everyone has taken versus what is what's engaging is something that's just real, raw, unfiltered.
我不会谈发在动态里的照片，但就是类似那种东西。
Not gonna talk about feed pics, but something along those lines.
嗯，嗯，故事里有个地方你提到了松开的鞋带之类的东西。
Well, Well, there was a thing there was a line in the in the story where you talked about untied shoes or something like that.
那就是拍鞋子的照片和不讨喜的模特。
That's shoe shots and unflattering candidates.
我想要表达的就是这个。
That's what I was going for.
抱歉提到了脚。
I apologize about bringing up feet.
但是
But
但是，好吧。
But but okay.
那么你就不得不思考一个问题：AI生成的内容对这些动态有益吗？
So then you get into the question of, like, is AI generated content good for these feeds?
因为我要承认一件事，我有个很棒的Facebook故事。
Because I one thing I'll admit actually, I I have a great Facebook story.
你知道，你有时喜欢看我的Facebook动态，因为我很少更新。
I and you you know, you love my Facebook story sometimes because I don't go on it often.
而且当我们谈到我们的Meta Ray-Ban故事时，那是我在假期期间回到家乡马萨诸塞州列克星敦的经历。
And actually and as we get into our meta Ray Ban stories, from the holidays, I was home in Lexington, Mass where I'm from.
感恩节期间，我的无人机卡在了我小时候长大的那个小学公园的树顶上。
Over Thanksgiving, my drone got caught in the top of a tree at this elementary school park area where I grew up.
所以我一度以为它丢了。
So I I kinda considered it gone.
在圣诞节假期期间，我高中时一个二十年没联系过的人给我发了条消息，说有人在列克星敦市的一个居民群组里发帖。
Over Christmas break, I someone from my high school I had not talked to in twenty years sent me a message that someone had posted in a Lexington, Mass residence group.
嘿。
Hey.
找到了你的无人机。
Found your drone.
有人认识这个人吗？
Does anyone recognize this person?
那是一张我的照片。
And it's a photo of me.
他们把SD卡取了出来，提取了照片。
They'd taken the SD card out and pulled the photos.
所以，有人随机地在镇上的这个Facebook群组里发帖，而我高中时一个二十年没联系过的人给我发了这条消息，我最终找回了我的无人机。
So someone randomly posting to this town Facebook group, someone from my high school I haven't talked to in twenty years, sending me that message, and I got my drone back.
所以，连我妻子都说：‘你得好好夸一夸马克·扎克伯格，感谢Facebook帮了你这次。’
So I I even my wife was like, you have to say something nice for Mark Mark Zuckerberg in Facebook for this one.
我觉得这真是
I think That is
一个美丽的故事。
a beautiful story.
确实是。
It is.
对吧？
Right?
我当时想：是的。
I was like Yes.
这是那种让人想起社交媒体最初承诺的故事——它本该是什么样子？
This is one of those remember the promise of social media, what it was supposed to be?
我觉得这非常了不起，但这件事让我在等待确认、处理这个无人机的过程中，多次登录了Facebook，这让我重新意识到，作为一个非活跃用户，我的Facebook信息流里到底有什么。
I thought that was pretty pretty amazing, but it made me go on Facebook a number of times, which I don't normally do, while I was waiting for confirmation, organizing around this drone, and it reminded me what's actually on my Facebook feed as a non heavy user.
天啊，那里充斥着那种AI生成的、像虾仁耶稣一样的垃圾内容。
And my god, there that that shrimp Jesus version of a AI slop is it's there.
它活了。
It's alive.
它现在在里面疯狂地运转着。
It's it's just raging in there right now.
是的。
Yeah.
嗯，你确实回答了我一个问题，就是当你把无人机弄丢在树上时会发生什么。
Well, you know, you've definitely answered a question for me, which is what happens when you lose your drone in a tree.
我本来以为你会像救被困猫那样叫消防队，但我很高兴你没那么做。
I thought maybe you call the fire department like you would for a stranded cat, but I'm glad you didn't do that.
我很高兴你用社交媒体把无人机找回来了。
I'm glad you used social media to recover the thing.
我其实一直在想这件事，但根据Reddit上的说法，消防部门对这种事并不友好。
I was I was actually wondering about it, but, like, as per Reddit, fire departments are not very friendly about that.
而且如果你动用资源，就会引发很多争论：纳税人承担的成本 vs. 无人机的成本。
And if you're devoting resources and the cost to, like there's actually lots of debates, the cost to the taxpayer versus the cost of a drone.
所以我想，我可不会那么做。
So I I was like, I'm not gonna not gonna do that.
只能抱最好的希望，结果真的成功了。
Just hope for the best, and it worked.
不过，为那些确实打电话叫消防队的人说句公道话，他们确实有辆带梯子的消防车。
Well, I mean, in in the defense of the people that do call the fire department, I mean, they do have a truck with a ladder on the back.
所以，你知道的，你能指望什么呢？
So, you know, it's like sort of well, what do you expect?
但不管怎样，在我们休息前，简短聊聊我们的Meta Ray-Ban故事吧。
But, anyway, let's talk talk briefly before we go to break about our meta Ray Ban story.
我来告诉你一个。
So I'll tell you one.
你和我都是Meta Ray-Ban故事的忠实粉丝。
So you and I are both big fans of the meta Ray Ban stories.
结果发现，它们在寒冷环境下表现并不好。
It turns out that they're not very good in the cold.
我带了我的那副眼镜去了厄瓜多尔，那段时间我大部分时间都在那里，试图攀登科托帕希火山，那是一座高达19,350英尺的大火山。
I had brought my pair with me to Ecuador where I was for a good chunk of the December trying to climb up Cotopaxi, which is fairly big volcano, 19,350 feet.
当我们距离山顶只有几百英尺时，我想：好了，
And we were a couple 100 feet underneath the summit, and I was like, alright.
该拿出眼镜了。
Time to break these things out.
我要用第一人称视角拍下整个攀登过程。
Gonna film this all first person on the way up.
于是我打开盒子，戴上眼镜，打开电源。
And I break them out the case, put them on, turn them on.
我们上山时它们还充满电，但到那时电池已经完全没电了。
They were fully charged when we were on our way up, and the battery was totally empty.
我知道你在这里也有过类似的经历，关于你的And
And I know you had a similar experience here too with your And
我得说，我在新罕布什尔州的桑皮山山顶时海拔只有2,743英尺，但我非常兴奋。
I I I I will say I was only at 2,743 feet in altitude at the summit of Mount Sunapee in New Hampshire, but I was very excited.
我本来打算带我儿子一起去。
I was gonna take my son.
那是我第一次登顶，我的雷朋眼镜电量充足，上缆车前我还特意检查了电池，但到了山顶开始拍摄视频，才拍了五秒钟，电池就耗尽了。
It was the first time at the top of the mountain, had my Ray Bans fully charged, even checked the battery before getting on the lift, get up top, start taking video, get about five seconds of video, and the battery died too.
所以我很不高兴。
So I was, like, pretty unhappy.
我为雷朋眼镜做了这方面的准备。
I I prepared for that with the Ray Ban.
所以如果有人在听，并且了解寒冷天气对雷朋眼镜的影响，我想这应该是很常见的，我不确定。
So if anyone's listening and knows about cold weather effects on Ray Ban I mean, I guess it should be pretty I don't know.
这虽然是常态，但如果有什么方法可以防止这种情况，同时还能拍到这些画面，请告诉我们。
It's standard, but if there's if there's any way to prevent this and still get these shots, let us know.
对Meta有一些赞扬，也有一些批评，但总的来说，你知道的，嘿。
Some praise for Meta, some criticism for Meta, but all altogether, you know, hey.
看。
Look.
他们就在现场。
They're they're in the arena.
对吧？
Right?
他们在做事情。
They're they're doing things.
他们在开发人工智能。
They're building AI.
他们有社交动态。
They have social feeds.
他们有我们都喜欢的智能设备。
They have the smart device that we both tend to like.
好吧。
Okay.
小瑕疵。
Small flaw.
但你知道吗？
But You know what?
但这就是宏观图景。
But that is that is the meta picture.
想想这个。
Think about this.
这是我们很长时间以来第一次将节目前半部分（至少）专门用于讨论宏观和人工智能。
This is the first time in a long time we have devoted the first half at least of the show to meta and AI.
所以我认为，至少他们如你所说，已经重返竞技场，回到2026年。
So I think if nothing else, they're back in the arena, as you said, 2026.
也许会有什么大动作。
Maybe there's gonna be something big.
我也这么认为。
I think so.
我觉得他们有机会。
I think there's a chance for them.
当然。
Absolutely.
好的。
Alright.
我的意思是，考虑到他们投入的巨额资金，确实应该有什么大动作，不过我们会在今年持续关注这件事。
So, I mean, there there better be something big given the amount of money that they're spending, but we'll we'll talk about it through the year.
好的。
Alright.
广告插播后，我们将讨论英伟达与Grok的授权协议——不是埃隆·马斯克的Grok，而是芯片领域的Grok，他们将授权AI技术并邀请对方CEO加盟。
On the other side of this break, we're gonna talk about NVIDIA's deal to license Grok, the not the Elon Musk Grok, the chip Grok license its AI technology and bring over their CEO.
我们还将讨论。
We'll also discuss.
我想我们会有一个双Grok环节，第二部分。
We are gonna have a double grok, I guess, second segment.
我们会讨论埃隆·马斯克的Grok为何表现不佳，最后，我和兰詹都非常期待聊聊‘财务平庸的牢笼’这个话题。
We'll discuss Elon Musk's grok going bad, and then finally, the prison of financial mediocrity with which Ranjan and I are both excited to speak about.
我们将在广告后立即进行。
We'll do that right after this.
我们回到这里，为您带来《科技大观》周五特别版。
And we're back here on big technology podcast Friday edition.
好的。
Alright.
简要地说，拉詹，这里有个有趣的故事。
Briefly, Ranjan, interesting story here.
英伟达授权。
NVIDIA license.
这则消息来自《华尔街日报》。
This is from the Wall Street Journal.
随着对尖端芯片需求的增长，英伟达授权了Grok的AI技术。
NVIDIA licenses Grok's AI technology as demand for cutting chip cutting edge chips grows.
英伟达已与芯片初创公司Grok达成许可协议，获得其AI推理技术，这表明市场对尖端AI芯片的需求正在增长。
NVIDIA has forged licensing deal with the chip startup, Grok, for its AI inference technology, a sign of growing demand for cutting edge AI chip.
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根据该协议，Grok的首席执行官兼创始人乔纳森·罗斯将加入NVIDIA，连同其总裁和部分初创公司员工。
Under the deal, Grok's CEO and founder, Jonathan Ross, will be joining NVIDIA along with its president and some of the startup staff.
实际上，是初创公司90%的员工。
Actually, it's 90% of the startup staff.
我想这仍然不算收购。
I guess this is still not an acquisition.
Grok的语言处理单元芯片专为推理设计，即当消费者或企业要求经过训练的AI模型提供答案、做出预测或对新数据得出结论时所发生的日常过程。
Grok's language processing unit chips are built for inference, the everyday process that occurs when consumers or businesses ask trained AI models to provide answers, make predictions, or draw conclusions on new data.
拉詹，如果我们不知道这是否是一次收购，你认为这有什么重要意义吗？
Ranjan, what do you think the significance is of this if we don't what it's an aqua higher position.
对吧？
Right?
就是这样。
That's what it is.
你认为这是NVIDIA意识到Grok由于提供AI模型的推理服务，未来可能成为巨大威胁，因此他们更愿意将其纳入内部，而不是任其在外吗？
Do you do you think this is NVIDIA recognizing that Grok, basically, because it does provide inference services for AI models, could over time be a very big threat, and they'd much rather have it on the inside than otherwise?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得很高兴你提到了这一点，因为我正想不起那个说法呢。
I think and I'm glad you said because I was trying to remember what that phrase was.
但我觉得，一开始我读到这笔交易时，我做的第一件事就是弄清楚这到底是不是一次收购。
But I think it to start, when I was reading about this deal, like, now the first thing I ever do in any of these in news items is try to figure out, is it actually an acquisition?
而这一笔属于那种比较特别的情况，相比之下，Manus 是一次典型的传统收购。
And this one was one of those funky ones, whereas Manus was a straightforward old school acquisition.
他们确实收购了这家公司。
They actually acquired the company.
但这里有很多复杂的地方，比如谁加入了、如何加入、哪些是授权的、哪些不是、哪些是知识产权、哪些不是。
Here, we have lots of quirks around to who is joining how, what is licensed, what is not, what's intellectual property, what's not.
我觉得，正如你所说，这是一次人才和技术的整合。
I think, as you said, this is as it's talent and technology.
这就像整个芯片一样。
It's like the entire chip.
这是语言处理单元。
It's the language processing unit.
如果NVIDIA要始终领先于谷歌及其TPU的竞争，那么从这个角度来看，这种做法是有道理的。
It's if NVIDIA, they just have to stay ahead of whatever competition Google and their TPUs are coming, like so I think it makes sense from that standpoint.
你觉得他们这样安排只是为了规避反垄断吗？
Is it like, do you think it was just to avoid antitrust that they structured in this way?
或者
Or
当然。
Absolutely.
没有其他解释了。
There's no other explanation.
是啊。
Yeah.
真有趣，每个人都说这话。
I mean, it's so funny how everyone just says that.
比如，即使是那些强烈支持反垄断执法的人，甚至是讨厌莉娜·汗的人，也都随意地说：‘哦，是啊。’
Like, even people who are very strongly, like, for antitrust enforcement, even people who are hate Lina Khan, everyone just casually is like, oh, yeah.
然后大家都这么做，只是为了绕开反垄断法规。
Then everyone's just doing that to end around antitrust.
但没错，从实际芯片技术以及与你通常所从事的工作相比，实现某种差异化创新的角度来看，我觉得这很有道理。
But, yeah, I think it makes sense to me from, like, a strategic standpoint in terms of the actual chip technology and having some kind of differentiated innovation versus, like, what you're typically working on.
所以
So
我的意思是，仔细听听这笔交易的细节。
I mean, just listen to the details of the deal.
Grok 上一次估值为69亿美元，是在今年9月7.5亿美元的融资中确定的。
So Grok was valued last at 6,900,000,000.0 in a $750,000,000 September round.
而这次收购价是200亿美元。
This was a $20,000,000,000 acquisition.
这是来自Axios的消息。
This is from Axios.
大多数Grok股东将获得与200亿美元估值挂钩的每股分配。
Most Grok shareholders will receive per share distributions tied to the bill $20,000,000,000 valuation.
85%将立即支付，10%在年中支付，其余部分在2026年支付。
85% will be paid upfront, 10% paid midyear, and the remainder at the 2026.
据说约90%的Grok员工将加入英伟达，他们将获得现金支付其所有已归属股份。
Around 90% of Grok employees are said to be joining NVIDIA, and they will be paid cash for all their vested shares.
他们的未归属股份将按250亿美元的估值进行支付。
Their unvested shares will be paid out at the $25,000,000,000 valuation.
这是一次全方位的收购。
That's an acquisition in everything.
这实际上是全面收购，但他们却称之为非独家许可协议，我觉得这简直是侮辱了阅读和讨论这笔交易的人们的智商。
It's it's effectively everything but in and they're calling it to to call it a nonexclusive licensing agreement is it's an it's an I feel like it's an insult to the intelligence of the people reading and talking about this deal.
是谁想出这个说法的？
Who came up with that one.
而且，我说这话是开玩笑的，因为实际上发生的情况是，这里有一种有前景的、与英伟达核心业务相竞争的技术基础设施，而他们已经将其收购了。
And, I mean and, again, I'm saying that in jest because I think it's actually like, in reality, what also happened is here's a promising alternative technology infrastructure to NVIDIA's core business, and they've taken it out.
意思是他们现在要用这个技术去和谷歌竞争吗？还是说他们只是花200亿美元买下了一个有前景的技术？但实际上这笔交易对他们来说非常划算，因为仅凭收购消息，他们的市值增长就超过了这个数字。
Like, does that mean they're going to now use this and compete against Google or maybe, or they just took out a promising technology and for 20,000,000,000, and it's actually well worth it for them because they're I mean, market cap alone increase on the on the news of the acquisition was more than that.
尽管我从不认同那个衡量标准，但无论如何，这对他们来说都不是一笔糟糕的交易。
Even though I never liked that barometer, still, it's not a bad deal for them in any way.
我认为这笔交易应该被阻止。
I think it should be blocked.
我认为Grok作为一个独立公司很有前景。
I think Grok is a promising company as an independent company.
我刚刚在Web Summit上与这家公司的CFO谈过。
I just spoke with the company CFO at Web Summit.
我的意思是，人们可以在YouTube上观看那次采访。
I mean, people can watch that interview on YouTube.
几个月前我就做了那次采访。
You know, I did that a couple months ago.
还有，这事儿也挺有意思。
Also, story.
从大型科技的角度来看，我们原本计划在去年12月底邀请乔纳森·罗斯做节目，但在录制前一晚，他取消了。
From the big technology standpoint, we were supposed to have Jonathan Ross on the show in late December, and the night before the recording, he canceled.
我当时想，我以前从没见过这种情况。
And I was like, I've never seen that happen before.
为什么会这样？
Why is that?
现在我明白了。
And now I understand.
你现在知道了。
Now you know.
你现在知道了。
Now you know.
但听众们，别灰心。
But listeners, do not despair.
我们即将迎来一个精彩的一月。
We have a great January coming up.
我们邀请了Corweave的创始人周三做客节目。
We have the founders of Corweave who are gonna be on on Wednesday.
接下来一周，我们还将迎来Mistral的首席执行官，之后还有一系列在达沃斯期间安排的精彩对话。
We have the CEO of Mistral coming up the the week after that, most likely, and then a string of promise promises to be really fun conversations from Davos coming up.
好的。
Alright.
让我们聊聊Grok，另一个Grok。
Let's talk about Grok, the other Grok.
我们来谈谈Grok和Grok吧。
Let's go Grok to Grok here.
这是来自彭博社的报道。
This is from Bloomberg.
这是一个相当令人不安的故事。
This is a pretty disturbing story.
Grok在安全机制失效后发布了未成年人的性图像。
Grok posts sexual images of minors after lapses in safeguards.
埃隆·马斯克的人工智能聊天机器人称，安全措施的疏漏导致生成了未成年人的性化图像，并发布在社交媒体平台X上。
Elon Musk's artificial intelligence chatbot said lapses in safeguards led to the generation of sexualized images of minors that had posted to social media site x.
在过去几天里，Grok根据用户提示生成了穿着极少衣物的未成年人图像，违反了其禁止儿童性化的可接受使用政策。
Grok created images of minors in minimal clothing in response to user prompts over the past few days, violating its own acceptable use policy, which prohibits the sexualization of children.
这些违规图像已被删除。
The offending images were taken down.
该聊天机器人表示：‘我们已发现安全措施的疏漏，并正在紧急修复。’Grok于周五发帖补充道，儿童性虐待内容是非法且被禁止的。
The chatbot said we've invent we've identified lapses in safeguards and are urgently fixing them, Grogg posted on Friday, adding that child's sexual abuse material is illegal and prohibited.
这件事是我最近几天在我的信息流中偶然看到的讨论，人们只是在向Grok发送消息，要求它删除用户的衣物。
This is something that I just sort of I had seen the discussion of come across my ex feed over over the past couple days where people were just, like, basically at messaging Grock and asking it to, you know, remove users' clothing.
这属于一个日益增长的问题趋势。
And and it's part of a growing trend of a of a problem.
根据彭博社的报道，非营利组织互联网观察基金会——该组织负责识别网络上的儿童性虐待内容——报告称，2025年前六个月AI生成的图像数量增加了400%。
The the Internet Watch Foundation, this is according again to Bloomberg story, a nonprofit that identifies child sexual abuse material online, reported a 400% increase in AI generated imagery in the first six months of 2025.
拉詹，我想提出这个故事，是因为我认为它值得报道。
Ranjan, I I wanted to bring this story up, a, because I think it's important to cover.
但我也认为，你过去曾谈到过，当这些功能强大的机器人存在容易被操纵的漏洞时，这有多么令人担忧，以及这对人工智能整体安全意味着什么。
But, also, I think you in the past have talked about the how worrying it is when these bots that are very powerful do have the vulnerabilities that allow them to be manipulated and sort of what that means for for the safety of AI overall.
那你对此有什么看法？
So what's your thought here?
这是一个难题，因为在我看来，这并不像是系统的漏洞。
It's a tough one because to me, this does not appear to be a vulnerability of the system.
事实上，考虑到Grok的创建者以及X平台整体那种怪异的兄弟会风格、类似安德鲁·泰特的氛围——它每天都在变得越来越如此——在我看来，这根本不是什么红队测试式的漏洞。
And in reality, given the creator of Grok and the overall kind of, like, vibe of x, you know, as this kind of weird frat house ish Andrew Tate light, whatever it's becoming more and more every day, like, to me, this isn't some kind of, like, you know, like red teaming vulnerability.
这很可能正是Grok对图像的根本认知方式，而且很可能在开发过程中，那些参与构建的人就在有意训练它这样运作。
This is probably at the very core of how Grock thinks of images, and people probably were doing this who were building it as they were actually, like, training this out.
这感觉完全符合Grok原本应有的定位：一个非政治正确、反觉醒的人工智能，就是直话直说、幽默、讽刺、机智等等。
It just feels like this is just very in line with everything else Grock was supposed to be, the non PC woke AI that just, you know, like, tells it like it is and is funny and sarcastic and witty and all that.
所以对我来说，这更像是一个功能，而不是缺陷。
So to me, it actually feels like this is more feature than bug.
而且更让我感到恐惧的是，至少就我关注的人而言，这些图像并没有出现在我的信息流中，这反而是好事。
And it's also just like, it's kind of horrifying more I'm gonna say as a testament at least to who I followed, it wasn't coming across my feed and the images, which was good.
但后来我看到关于它的讨论，于是去查看了Grok媒体标签页，那里显示了Grok在官方账号上生成的所有媒体内容，之后我就不断收到被换上比基尼的图片。
But then I saw a conversation around it, and then, of course, went to the Grock media tab where it shows all the media that Grock's generating on the actual, like, core Grock account, and then constantly started getting it, getting bikinified pictures.
大多数图片似乎是OnlyFans模特，纯粹是吸引互动的噱头，管他呢。
Most of them appeared to be, like, OnlyFans models, and it was just total, like, engagement bait, which whatever.
我想，这或许还能接受。
That's, I guess, okay.
我的意思是，我觉得这没什么大不了的。
I mean, I think it that's fine.
但事实上，我动态流里出现的第一张图片是佐兰·马曼迪的妻子在就职典礼上被换上比基尼，这显然不太好。
But then, actually, the first image that came across my feed was Zoran Mamdani's wife getting bikinified at the inauguration, which, again, like, that is not great.
这真的很恶心，完全不合适。
That's pretty, like, gross and just, you know, not not good.
但想象一下，任何一位女性在网上发布内容，只是想参与讨论，却不断被自动生成比基尼版本的图片。
But then imagine you're like any female out there posting anything, just trying to be engaged in the conversation in some way, and then you're just getting bikinified left and right.
所以，这种
So, like and that's
我觉得这太糟糕了。
I think it's terrible.
大方。
Generous.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
就是这样，是的。
That's like Yeah.
所以，任何使用AI在未经他人同意的情况下脱去他人衣物的行为，在我看来都是不可接受的。
So I any any version of using AI to undress people against their will to me is is off.
但我好奇这里谁该负责。
But I wonder who's who's responsible here.
我的意思是，用户当然有责任，但如果你大规模发布会做这种事的产品，那你也负有责任。
I mean, obviously, there's responsibility from the user, But, also, if you're releasing something at scale that does this, it's also your responsibility.
当然了，这是因为其他平台不会发生这种情况。
Well, of course I mean, there's a reason this isn't happening on on other platforms.
而且，这其实又回到了老问题。
And, it it kinda goes back.
你有这个吗？这个是那个反觉醒、反政治正确的Grok吗？
Do you have this, like, this is Grock the anti woke PC one?
到底发生了什么？
It's like what was the what happened?
我觉得当时是Bard，还是Gemini在生成类似独立战争士兵的内容？
I think it was Bard at the time, or was it Gemini that was doing, like, revolutionary war soldiers?
或者它当时是在往觉醒的方向走。
Or there was, like, going in the woke direction.
你还记得那是什么吗？
Do you know remember what's that?
谷歌谷歌AI。
Google Google AI.
是Gemini或者Bard。
It was either Gemini or Bard.
对。
Yeah.
它当时在生成，比如，黑人纳粹。
It was, like, creating, like, black Nazis.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
没错。
Exactly.
所以，这类事情真的很尴尬。
So, like, that stuff is is awkward.
但另一方面，对我来说，最大的问题是，那些创建Grok的人，是不是自己在玩，觉得这很搞笑？
But then, again, the to me, the biggest question is, like, is this something that people those creating Grok were, like, playing around with themselves, thought it was funny?
我的意思是，这个模型是不是被特别训练过，以便比其他模型更好地做到这一点？
Like, I mean, was the model specifically trained in some way to actually do this better than other models?
很有可能就是这样。
I there's a good chance it was.
所以，是的，我认为这个平台——我的意思是，事情会变得很难看。
So, yeah, I think, like, the platform I mean, this is gonna get ugly.
在今年所有可能出问题的AI相关事情中，我们已经看到了这种情况。
This is this is gonna in terms of all the things that can go wrong with AI this year, we're we already saw it.
这就是事情要开始的地方。
This is where it's gonna start.
而且，你知道，这个行业必须团结起来，制定一些所谓的最佳实践，就我们希望如何应对这个问题达成共识。
And, you know, this the industry has to kinda come together and come up with some kind of just I'm gonna say the word best practices around this, but just agreed this is how we want to approach this.
否则，这种情况只会不断发生。
Because otherwise, it's just gonna keep happening.
从法律角度来看，你觉得如果有人，比如说，用提示词让别人裸体——人们现在在公共场合确实用提示词做这种事。
From a legal standpoint, do you think that if some if somebody, let's say, undresses someone else, like, with a prompt mean, people sick thing is people are doing this with prompts in public.
你知道，他们在这里有法律责任吗？
You know, do do they have any liability here?
是AI引擎生成了这张图片？
Is it the AI engine that made the image?
还是分发它的平台有责任？
Is it the platform that distributed it?
看，这就是我对这件事走向的判断。
See, this is where my bet on where this is gonna go.
现在，所有大型AI机构都声称，生成的内容是原创的，因此不受版权保护。
Now all of every large AI institution has said that the end content that's being created is original, and that's why it's not copyrighted.
这是合理使用。
It's it's fair use.
这是混合创作。
It's remixed.
到了这个时候，平台已经创造了内容，和用户一样负有责任。
It's at which point, it is your the platform has created the content and is as liable as the user.
请记住，过去一直以来，这些平台的免责依据都是第230条：我们只是中立的平台。
Now remember, always in the past, the section two thirty, the way out for any of these platforms was we're just a platform that's neutral.
是用户在创建内容。
The user is creating the content.
而现在，从版权角度来看，他们必须承认平台或引擎与用户一样在创造内容。
Whereas now, they, from a copyright perspective, have to say that the platform or the engine is creating the content as much as the user.
所以我认为，这个问题很快就会集中爆发。
So I think this this comes to a head in a big way very soon.
我的意思是，即使不是因为这一事件本身。
I mean, if not from this incident itself.
毫无疑问。
Without a doubt.
我 definitely 预期会看到这里的诉讼，坦率地说，这些诉讼是合理的。
I definitely expect to see lawsuits here, and frankly, they're warranted.
好吧。
Alright.
让我们谈谈这里最后一个故事，来自 Substack/Twitter 用户 Systemic Long Shorts 的文章，名为《财务平庸的牢笼》。
Let's let's talk about this this last story here, this from a Substacker slash Twitter user called systemic long shorts called the prison of financial mediocrity.
我只读一点，因为它非常有趣，而且过去几天里，这件事也一直在我脑海中萦绕。
I'll just read a bit of it because it's really fascinating, and it definitely was something else that percolated on my ex feet over the past couple days.
作者写道：我绝对会押上全部家当，认为长期的堕落将是未来世纪主导的社会经济主题。
The person writes, I'm absolutely betting the house that long degeneracy is the prevalent socioeconomic theme of the coming century.
这就是为什么 40 岁以上的人会建议你提升工作能力、增加收入，而其他所有人都似乎忽视了这一点，拼命抓住任何可能带来惊人成功的机会。
It is why people above the age of 40 will recommend you get a better better at your job and increase your salary, while everybody else seems to be ignoring exactly that and desperately clawing at something, anything that can give them a shot at outrageous success.
过去隐含的协议是：准时出现、努力工作、保持忠诚，你就会得到回报。
The implicit deal used to be show up, work hard, stay loyal, and you'll be rewarded.
公司提供养老金，十年工龄是有意义的。
Companies offered pensions, 10 tenure meant something.
你睡觉时，房子也在升值。
Your house appreciated while you slept.
你所工作的体系，只要你信任它，它就会为你服务。
The system you worked the system worked if you trusted in it.
这份协议已经死了。
That deal is dead.
在一家公司待上二十年，现在不再是资产，而是职业负担。
Staying at one company for twenty years is now a career liability, not an asset.
工资增长了8%，而住房成本翻了一番，年轻人的债务还款增加了33%。
Wages grew 8% while housing costs doubled, and debt payments for the young increased 33%.
这个数学模型不再支持耐心了。
The math does not support patients anymore.
随着人工智能的出现，我认为它将带来的经济影响只会变得更糟。
With the advent of AI, the economic impact they are going to have, I think and the, yeah, the economic impact it's gonna have, I think it's only going to get worse.
为什么要花二十年追求一个十年后可能根本不存在的晋升？
Why grind twenty years towards a promotion that might not exist in ten?
正因为如此，因为你耐心等待、信任系统却得不到相应的回报，这个人说，我们正目睹预测市场、体育博彩等现象的兴起。
And because of this, because of the fact that you're not being rewarded with pace by being patient, by trusting in the system, this person says that basically we're seeing the rise of things like prediction markets, sports betting.
我可能会再加上日内交易，你知道的，那些迷因股票。
I'd probably add day trading, you know, the the the meme stocks.
这里有一些关于预测市场的数据。
Here are some numbers on prediction markets.
仅在2025年11月，Polymarket和Call Sheet的交易量就超过了100亿美元。
Polymarket and call sheet did 10,000,000,000 plus in volume in November 2025 alone.
2020年，combined年度交易量接近400亿美元，而此前几乎为零。
Combined annual volume approaching 40,000,000,000 in 2020, this was essentially zero.
体育博彩。
Sports betting.
合法体育博彩的收入从2017年的2.48亿美元增长到2024年的137亿美元。
Legal sports betting revenue went from 248,000,000 in 2017 to to of 248,000,000 in 2017 to 13,700,000,000.0 in 2024.
Z世代和千禧一代占了投注活动的76%。
Gen Z and millennials account for 76% of betting activity.
所以，这个人基本上是在说，耐心等待、提升工作能力、加薪、投资、长期规划这些观念已经过时了，因此人们转而投身于这些暴富骗局，也就是他们所说的‘degen’的堕落行为——你最好现在就抓住机会，争取百倍回报，因为等三十年才翻十倍，或者十年翻十倍，可能并不是最好的选择。
So, basically, what this person is saying is the be patient, get better at your job, get a better salary, invest, play the long game is gone, and therefore, are just turning to these get rich quick schemes and what you know, they they call it, like, you know, d degen's degeneracy in terms of, like, well, you better take your shots now to try to a 100 x because waiting thirty years to 10 x isn't maybe not the best move or just ten years to 10 x.
我不知道。
I don't know.
罗恩·约翰，你对这个怎么看？
What do you think about this, Ron John?
这有道理吗？
Any truth to it?
我会说，有些内容是你希望自己写出来的。
I I will say there's, like, those pieces that you wish you had written.
这正是其中之一。
This was one of them.
再说一遍，我不知道。
And again, I don't know.
这就像X上的一篇帖子。
It was like a post on X.
这是一篇帖子吗？
Is it a post?
这是一条推文吗？
Is it a tweet?
这是一份通讯吗？
Is it a newsletter?
但不管是什么，我都非常喜欢。
But whatever it was, I loved it.
我其实很喜欢，而且again，内容整体相当黑暗和令人沮丧。
I actually like and again, it's all pretty dark and depressing.
但这个观点，他一直提到‘长期的堕落’，而我们已经看到，这在最近确实是个不错的策略。
But, again, the idea, like, he keeps saying long degeneracy, and which we've seen is is a pretty good trade in recent times.
而且我认为，关于社交媒体影响的讨论也包含在其中。
And and I think it the the the discussion around the effect of social media is in there.
回到之前关于信息流的讨论，也许未经筛选的鞋履选择会帮助解决这个问题，因为实际上，正如这篇文章所说，我的观点是，社交媒体和我们更高层次的需求已经让那些财务地位远低于上层阶级的人感到自己已经处于劣势。
And going back to the earlier, the earlier conversation around the feed, maybe in a way, the unfiltered shoe picks will be help solve this because in reality, what's happening is he had said the piece says that my take is that social media and our higher order needs have conditioned people that are positioned well below the financial upper class to feel like they are already at a loss.
如果你仔细想想，当今社交媒体的核心就在于，总有人拥有比你更多、更好的东西，过着比你更棒的假期，做着一切比你更出色的事情。
And if you think about it, the very core of social media as it exists today is that there's someone or lots of people out there with more stuff that's better than you, that are taking better vacations than you, that are doing everything else better than you.
所以这种类似瘙痒的感觉是无法被满足的。
So that that kinda, like, itch is cannot be satiated.
这正是整个模式的本质。
That's the whole model of it.
但与此同时，还有许多其他途径和替代方案试图实现这种愿景，无论是预测市场、体育博彩、加密货币，还是其他任何东西——我的意思是，交易期权，这些都变得更容易接触了。
But then here is these all these other avenues and alternatives to try to achieve that vision, whether it's prediction markets, sports betting, crypto, whatever else it's or, I mean, trading options, all these things have become much more accessible.
我们称之为金融市场的民主化，但对我而言，它们实际上只是这些系统通过利用那些渴望追赶的人来致富的方式。
We call it kind of democratized financial markets, but in reality, they're just, to me, ways for these systems to get rich at the expense of people wanting to try to, like, catch up.
这段话对我来说尤其令人毛骨悚然。
And this was a particularly haunting passage for me.
那些无法想象在一家公司里埋头苦干的人，却会花几个月的时间拼命学习加密货币交易。
The same people who can't imagine grinding at one company will absolutely grind for months learning crypto trading.
他们花费数小时研究预测市场，以理解他们深信不疑的、早已被操控的经济。
They pour hours into understanding prediction markets to understand the very economy they believe wholeheartedly to be rigged.
同一个人会贬低传统投资为内幕游戏，却拿房租去赌表情包币。
The same person who dismisses traditional investing as an inside game will bet their rent money on MemeCoin.
为什么？
Why?
因为赌场是他们唯一感受到掌控感的地方，是唯一可能让他们的决定解锁重要时间线上下一阶段的地方。
Because the casino is the only place they feel agency, the only place where their decisions might actually unlock the next tier on a timeline that matters.
我很高兴你读到了这段话，因为对我来说，这正是核心问题：我喜欢‘赌场是唯一让人感到掌控感的地方’这个观点，但事实上，与许多其他所谓‘股市被操控’的情况相比，赌场才是你掌控感最少的地方。
I'm glad you read that that passage because to me, that was actually, like, the biggest issue here is I loved that idea around the casino is the only place one feels agency because in reality, it's where you have the least agency, I would say, relative to many of these other, oh, the stock market is rigged.
这根本就是一场内幕游戏，别开玩笑了。
It's an insider's game versus I mean, come on.
比如加密货币、Polymarket，所有这些。
Like, crypto, polymarket, all of these.
但Polymarket、Coinbase、DraftKings等平台的整个宣传口径，都是关于掌控感。
But the entire messaging of the polymarkets and Coinbases and DraftKings of the world is one of agency.
这正是加密货币所有营销活动的核心信息：这是你的出路。
Like, that's the every marketing campaign at the very core of crypto, the message is, this is your way out.
而且我觉得，整个住房危机也与此相关，也就是说，现在没人再拥有大型资产了。
And, like, I also think the whole housing crisis slash, I mean, factors into your there's no large assets anyone owns anymore.
除了房地产之外。
Like, you know, other than real estate.
你的平板电视、家里其他大件物品，也许还有车，但那些都是贬值资产。
So your your flat screen TV, your whatever other big stuff is in your house, maybe a car, I guess, but other that's a depreciating asset anyways.
人们不再拥有任何东西。
Like, people don't own stuff.
他们看到别人都过得比自己好，于是便试图通过各种方式赶超，真正实现那种生活——这确实不难理解为什么事情会变成现在这样。
They see everyone else has a better life than them, and then here's all these other ways to try to get ahead and actually try to realize that it there's there's no doubt why this is actually happening the way it is.
对。
Right.
问题是，在这些替代领域，比如赌场、体育博彩、预测市场，你很可能输钱。
And the problem is that, you know, with these alternative areas, like the casino, like sports betting, like the prediction market, you're probably gonna lose.
你会输的。
You will lose.
我的意思是，你确实会输。
I mean, you will.
所以，是的。
So then yeah.
那么，这里的解决方案是什么？
So then what is the what is the solution here?
因为，你知道，答案是这个临时路径其实比人们预期的要好得多，他们就应该这么做，还是说根本就没有答案？
Because, you know, is the answer that actually the provisional path works a lot better than people expect and they should just do that, or is there the is the answer that there are no answers?
因为答案不是赌博。
Because the answer isn't the degeneracy.
我明白了。
I I see.
我很久以前就写过关于罗宾汉的事情。
I've I've wrote about Robin Hood in this a long time ago.
对我来说，这一点我们之前在预测市场的话题中也讨论过。
Like, to me and this is we spoke about this with prediction markets.
我确实收到一些评论，关于我所说的内容——我仍然支持预测市场，但我必须澄清，我不认同Calci和Polymarket的运作方式。它们把预测市场当成一种你可以参与的资产类别，这很有趣，但别投太多钱，可能赚也可能亏，但这根本不是它的目的。
I actually got some, like, comments around what I was saying that I I'm still pro prediction market, but I had to clarify that I'm anti the way Calci and Polymarket are approaching it is if it's here is this kind of, like, asset class that you can engage in that is interesting and, like, don't bet too much on it, and maybe the you might make some money or you might not, but that's not the point of it.
它只是一个有趣的地方，可以去参与。
It's just an interesting place to do, like, engage.
我觉得它们在这方面非常出色，但这种理念从来都不是它们宣传的重点。
I think they're amazing for that, but, like, that's never been the messaging.
然后你就能看到，哪些产品被推广的方式。
And then you see it in the way that what products are promoted.
对于Robinhood来说，推广的不是指数投资，而是期权，尤其是短期期权。
With Robinhood, it's not in index investing, it's options because it's short dated options.
平台赚钱最多的产品，就是被大力推广的产品。
It's where the platform will make the most money are the products that are pushed.
你觉得Polymarket把这种组合投注叫什么来着？
It's a I think did you see what did Polymarket call a parlay?
他们搞了个组合，做了个类似‘串关’的东西，赌徒的陷阱，把两个结果绑在一起，以获得越来越夸张的赔率。
They had, like, a combined they they made this I gotta it was basically a parlay, gambler's nose, where you have, like, two outcomes tied to each other to get increasingly, like, dramatic odds.
现在，他们在预测市场中也这么做了。
Basically, now they're doing this these within prediction markets as well.
所以，你赚更多钱是因为更多人输了。
So, like, that's where you make more money because more people lose.
我认为，唯一的方式就是像赌场那样进行监管。
So I think that's the it has to get regulated is the only way the way casinos always were.
体育博彩长期以来就是这样。
Sports betting was for a long time.
我不觉得会这样，但除此之外，我真的看不到其他真正的解决办法。
I don't think it will, but I don't there's no other real, solution here.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我们最后确实聊了个挺让人沮丧的话题。
I mean, well, wait I mean, we've definitely ended on a on a depressing note here.
我想我会直接走开，拍一些构图糟糕的照片，发到Instagram上，看看点赞会不会涌来。
I think I will just walk away, take some pictures of poorly framed photos, and throw them up on Instagram and see if the likes pour in.
这正是我这周让自己感觉好起来的方式。
That's that's just the way I'll feel better about myself this week.
未经修饰的鞋子照片将拯救下一代，因为人们就不会再觉得有必要去追求下一次度假，跑去Polymarket加杠杆押注某个随机合约了——他们只会看到我们丑陋的运动鞋，我们就只谈运动鞋，盖住脚的那种。
Unfiltered shoe pics will save the next generation because then people won't feel the need to have to try to get that next vacation and go on to polymarket and lever up long some random contract because they're just gonna see our ugly sneakers, and let's keep it at sneakers, covered feet.
然后，从那里开始，我们拯救了男性孤独症危机。
And then, and then from there, we saved the male loneliness epidemic.
这是唯一能保护我们社会价值观和对民主未来抱有信念的方式。
This is the only way to preserve our societal values and our belief in Future of democracy is good.
发布丑陋的鞋子照片。
Post ugly shoe pics.
大家行动起来吧。
Get out there, people.
尽你的一份力。
Do your part.
尽你的一份力。
Do your part.
在一次
After a
尽你的一份力。
Do your part.
在徒步科托帕希火山二十小时后，看看这些鞋子有多丑——别发日出的照片，那种无与伦比、壮丽的景色。
After a twenty hour hike of cotopaxi, here's how ugly these shoes don't don't post the picture of the sunrise that is unparalleled and majestic.
之后发一双破旧鞋子的照片。
Post the beat up shoes afterwards.
脏兮兮的鞋子。
Nasty shoes.
脏兮兮的鞋子。
Nasty shoes.
光是这一点，就能带我们走向未来。
And that alone will will take us into the future.
仅凭这一点，我们就将共同创造一个伟大的2026年。
That alone will help us create a great 2026 together.
让我们行动吧。
Let's do it.
新年决心。
New Year's resolution.
我
I
受到鼓舞。
am inspired.
受到鼓舞。
I am inspired.
愿动态消息充满丑陋的照片，让文化和国家再次被拯救。
May the feed flow with ugly images, culture and country be saved again.
好了，拉詹。
Alright, Ranjan.
很高兴在2026年回来做这件事。
Great to be back doing this in 2026.
再次感谢你的参与。
Thanks again for coming on.
下周见。
See you next week.
下周见。
See you next week.
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
谢谢收听，我们下次再见，欢迎收听大科技播客。
Thank you for listening, and we'll see you next time on big technology podcast.
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