OpenAI与AMD的巨额交易，Sam Altman和Jony Ive的坎坷开局。Meta对决苹果

OpenAI与AMD签署一项巨额协议，OpenAI最终可能持有AMD 10%的股份。Sam Altman和Johnny Ive在打造AI神级设备的征途中遭遇波折。而Meta、苹果乃至整个科技界或许正走向一场碰撞。稍后请听Spyglass的MG Seigler为您详细解读。第一资本的科技团队不仅停留在讨论多智能体AI的层面。

OpenAI and AMD sign a mega deal where OpenAI could end up owning 10% of AMD. Sam Altman and Johnny Ive run into some turbulence in their quest to build an AI god device. And Meta and Apple and maybe the rest of the tech world are on a collision course. That's coming up with Spyglass' MG Seigler right after this. Capital One's tech team isn't just talking about multi agentic AI.

他们已实际部署了一套系统——名为聊天礼宾服务，正在简化购车流程。通过自我反思和分层推理结合实时API校验，它不仅帮买家找到心仪车型，还能协助预约试驾、获取贷款预批及估算以旧换新价值。这套先进直观的系统已投入实战应用。

They already deployed one. It's called chat concierge, and it's simplifying car shopping. Using self reflection and layered reasoning with live API checks, it doesn't just help buyers find a car they love. It helps schedule a test drive, get preapproved for financing, and estimate trade in value. Advanced, intuitive, and deployed.

这就是他们的技术实力——第一资本的科技之道。欢迎收听《大科技》播客，本月首个周一我们再次迎来MG Siegler，本期话题异常丰富。我们将探讨OpenAI与AMD的联姻，揭示NVIDIA与OpenAI协议目前仅是意向书的实质，追踪Sam Altman和Johnny Ive研发AI设备初期的磕绊，以及Meta、苹果、亚马逊和谷歌如何殊途同归地奔向同一目标。

That's how they stack. That's technology at Capital One. Welcome to Big Technology podcast where MG Siegler is here to make his first Monday of the month appearance, and we have so much to talk about. We're gonna cover the tie up between OpenAI and AMD, and the fact that NVIDIA and OpenAI's deal is really just a letter of intent. At this point, we also have Sam Altman and Johnny Ive running into some bumps as they begin to build their AI device, and Meta and Apple and maybe Amazon and Google all are basically on a collision course to build the same thing.

我们将全方位审视各方进展与领先者态势。MG，再次见到你真是太棒了，欢迎回到节目。

And we will take a look at how the progress is going on all fronts and who's winning. So great to see you again, MG. Welcome back to the show.

很高兴回来，Alex。虽然每次来做客都这么说，但眼下确实风云变幻。事态发展总是超乎想象，这种局势演进的方式简直令人难以置信。

Great to be back, Alex. And I know we say it every single time I'm on, but there's so much happening. And it's always there's always more happening. It's just it's wild how it this is, sort of just playing out.

我特别享受我们每月一次的深度交流。今早浏览新闻标题时我就想，单这些就够做整期节目了。上个月我们还在讨论GPT-5的发布以及OpenAI是否因此搞砸了ChatGPT，现在回想恍如隔世。

I love how we catch up every month, and I was looking at the headlines from just this morning, and I said we could do a full show Total. On that. Last month, we were talking about the rollout of GPT five and whether OpenAI has broken ChatGPT with it. That is a It feels like a decade ago. Yeah.

好的。那么让我们先从Sam Altman开始。几周前你曾指出他帖子中关于'丰饶智能'的耐人寻味表述，那似乎是对未来计划的隐晦暗示。首先需要说明，Sam这篇贴文非常简短。

All right. Yeah. So let's begin, of course, with, with Sam Altman. And a few weeks ago, you called out an interesting line in a post of his about abundant intelligence, and it was seemingly a wink towards interesting things, to come. First of all, Sam says in this post, a very short short post.

他表示，我们的愿景很简单。我们想建立一个每周能生产千兆瓦级新型AI基础设施的工厂，这很疯狂。他说执行起来将极其困难，需要多年才能达成这一里程碑，且需要在芯片、电力、建筑到机器人等每个技术层面进行创新。但我们一直在为此努力，并相信这是可能的。未来几个月，我们将讨论部分计划及合作方，以实现这一目标。

He says, our vision is simple. We wanna create a factory that can produce a gigawatt gigawatt of new AI infrastructure every week, which is crazy. He says the execution of this will be extremely difficult. It will take us years to get to this milestone and it will require innovation at every level of the stack, from chips to power to building to robotics, but we have been hard at work at this and believe it's possible. Over the next couple of months, we'll be talking about some of our plans and the partners we are working with to make this a reality.

我们有些有趣的新想法，他点到为止。现在与AMD的这笔交易——稍后我们会详谈——可能让OpenAI最终持有AMD 10%的股份，这正是Sam暗示的部分新构想。那么，先从宏观层面看：我们是否开始见证Sam的计划落地？

We have some interesting new ideas, and he sort of left it at that. And it seems like now with this deal with AMD, which we're gonna get into the details of, which by the way, might have OpenAI ending up as a 10% owner of AMD, this is part of the interesting new ideas that Sam teased. So, let's just start with the high the high level here. Are we starting to see Sam's plan come to fruition?

这似乎是其中一环，对吧？分析起来很困难，部分原因如开场所述——事态发展太快，我们外界显然无法知晓这些交易有多少是临时促成的。

It seems like this is part of it. Right? It's it's this is it's so hard to analyze this in part because of what we kicked off with. Right? Things are moving so fast, and it it's almost hard it's obviously impossible for us on the outside to know how much of these deals are coming together sort of on the fly.

比如之前报道的英伟达千亿美元交易，很可能促使Sam发了那篇帖子。据说他们在随特朗普海外访问期间面对面敲定了交易。现在AMD交易不禁让人联想：是否类似情景重演？Sam是否与苏姿丰同行？她看到英伟达交易后是否立即决定几天内达成应对方案？所以谈及Sam的帖子时，我甚至不确定他是否清楚这些模糊的'新融资构想'会如何发展。

Like, there was the reporting about, obviously, the the NVIDIA $100,000,000,000 deal, which led presumably to Sam's, you know, post there that you're talking about, that that sort of came together while they were both on the overseas excursion with with Trump and and sort of going around, and and they were able to hash out that deal sort of one on one. And so with a deal like this now with with AMD, you almost wonder, like, did a similar thing play out? Was was Sam with Lisa Su traveling around somewhere? Did did she pick up the phone when she saw that NVIDIA deal and decide, like, we need to, you know, figure out a deal basically over the next few days to sort of be able to to respond to that in some ways? And so it's when when talking about Sam's post, it's sort of like, I'm I'm unclear if he even knows all of the the ways that this is going to go from his sort of nebulous, yeah, talk about these interesting new ideas for financing.

那篇帖子让我觉得有必要分析——既因我喜欢解读Sam Altman的 cryptic 文风（尤其如此简短的），也因它看似是英伟达交易后的应景之作。随后他用惯常的模糊宏大词汇稍作展开，但这也关联到其他公司的表态。

And also that post, I I felt the need to write about that both because I like the the Sam Altman post's criminology of it all and doing breaking those down, especially when they're as short as this one is. The know, it's sort of I kicked off talking about it. It felt like this was basically written because Sam felt like, well, we just did a $100,000,000,000 deal with NVIDIA. Someone should say something about it. And then and then, you know, it goes on for just a little bit with these these very, again, nebulous and grandiose terms as he often does.

比如甲骨文新任联席CEO也暗示过这些奇特的新融资机制。当然，甲骨文也是OpenAI的重要合作伙伴——如今巨头们都在互相结盟。但幕后究竟发生了什么？为何各方突然开始酝酿却未明示的新会计方法？AMD交易可能是其中一环，也可能源于其他交易的连锁反应。

But this was also tied to, you know, some other quotes that were coming out of this from other companies. I think one was was it the oh, it's the new co one of the new co CEOs of Oracle also had, you know, alluded to these these strange new financing mechanisms. And, course, Oracle's a big partner with OpenAI too, is everyone's big partner with everyone these days. But so it's like, what what's going on behind the scenes that all these folks are getting together and coming up with with new accounting methods out of the blue that they that they're hinting at but not fully coming into? And so, yes, it's conceivable that this AMD deal is one of them, or it's conceivable that this AMD deal came together at the last minute because of the other deals going on.

必须肯定Sam的能力。当他说'我们将分享融资与建设的新构想'时，多数CEO的类似表态会让人感觉空洞。但Sam不同，我们知道他言出有物——或许这两种可能性同时存在。

I I have to give Sam credit. He's someone who can write like, we're gonna be telling you about some interesting new ideas we have about financing and building. And most CEOs, I would say, you you would read that and be like, there's nothing there. But with Sam, we've seen that there is something there. And that's either and maybe it's both of these options.

我本想说的是，这要么证明了他有能力将势头和想法转化为商业现实，要么证明了整个商业界盲目追随这一个人，并投入数百亿美元支持他未来的承诺，这多少有些令人担忧。但我想我们应该稍微谈谈这笔交易的性质，因为这是OpenAI与AMD之间一笔非常有趣的交易。根据《华尔街日报》的报道，OpenAI与芯片制造商超微半导体宣布了一项价值数十亿美元的合作，共同开发基于AMD处理器的人工智能数据中心。根据协议条款，OpenAI承诺从明年开始购买价值六吉瓦的AMD芯片。

I was gonna say it's either a testament to his ability to turn, momentum and ideas into business reality or a testament into, the entire business world blindly following this one man and putting so many billions of dollars behind, what he's promising in the future that it's it's somewhat concerning. But I think we should just talk a little bit about the nature of this deal because it's such an interesting deal between OpenAI and AMD. So this is from the Wall Street Journal. OpenAI and chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices announced a multibillion dollar partnership to collaborate on AI data centers that will run on AMD processors. Under the terms of the deal, OpenAI committed to purchasing six gigawatts worth of AMD chips, starting next year.

ChatGPT的制造商将通过直接购买或通过其云合作伙伴购买这些芯片。AMD首席执行官苏姿丰在周日的一次采访中表示，这笔交易将在未来五年内为芯片公司带来数百亿美元的新收入。作为协议的一部分，如果OpenAI达到某些部署里程碑，将分阶段获得最多1.6亿股AMD股票的认股权证，约占芯片公司10%的股份，每股价格为1美分。我得承认，MG，这最新消息让我有点晕头转向。我们能不能回顾一下？

The chat GPT maker will buy the chips either directly through it, or through its cloud partners. AMD chief Lisa Su said in an interview Sunday that the deal will result in tens of billions of dollars in new revenue for the chip company over the next half decade. Part of this, OpenAI will receive warrants for up to a 160,000,000 AMD shares worth roughly 10% of the chip company at 1¢ per share awarded in phases if OpenAI hits certain milestones for deployment. I have to admit, MG, this latest one, it's got my head spinning. So let's just think I can can we recap?

这不是对OpenAI的投资，而是OpenAI承诺购买AMD芯片。但在购买这些芯片的同时，它获得了AMD的所有权。是的。罗伊，这说得通吗？

It is it it is not an investment in OpenAI. It is OpenAI's commitment to buy AMD chips. But as it buys these chips, it gets ownership in AMD. Is Yes. This What makes sense of this, Roy?

这是AMD为了让OpenAI购买其芯片而放弃公司吗？这真的算是一次购买吗？还是说更像是……甚至都不是。你继续说吧。

Is this AMD giving away the company for OpenAI to buy its chips? And is that really a purchase? Or is it just like an So It's not even yeah. And you go ahead.

是的。我也在这里纠结。而且，这又是突发新闻，所以我还没有太多时间去仔细研究细节。但从高层面上看，根据这里的报道，似乎有很多事情在同时进行，一如既往。但10%的部分非常有趣。

Yeah. And this is struggling here. And, again, this this is sort of late breaking news, so I haven't had too much time to sort of go over the details of it. But at a high level from what, you know, the report is here, it does seem like there's a there's a number of things going on as always. But so the 10% thing is super interesting.

对吧？因为这个数字也奇怪地与英特尔据说卖给政府的股份相同，就像他们的交易一样。而且，显然还有其他所有权在英伟达和英特尔之间易手，还有很多其他事情在进行。所以感觉就像是同样的剧本，只是以不同的方式执行，现在所有权突然成了这些交易的标配。对吧？

Right? Because that's also oddly the number that, you know, Intel, you know, was was supposedly selling to the government, right, like, for for their deal. And there's, you know, there's other ownerships trading hands obviously between NVIDIA and Intel and then a bunch of other stuff going on. So it's like it all feels like the same sort of general playbook just being executed in different ways where it's like now all of a sudden ownership is sort of table stakes to these deals. Right?

即使OpenAI在技术上还是一家初创公司，它却可能拥有AMD这家非常公开、历史悠久的芯片公司高达10%的股份。从财务角度来看，这到底意味着什么？比如账目？根据报道，他们似乎有权通过认股权证购买这些股份，我不确定他们是否一定会买，但他们可以这样做。

Even when it's a company that's that's technically still a startup in OpenAI, own would be owning up to 10% of a very public, long standing public chip company in AMD. And and what on earth does that look like from a finance perspective? Like, books? Like, how it's from, again, from what the reporting is, like, they have the right to buy those shares, I think, in warrants. And so, like, I'm not sure that they necessarily will or but they could.

正如你所指出的，这显然取决于这两家公司之间的商业协议。然后还有另一层因素，就像你刚才提到的，购买芯片的不一定是OpenAI本身。对吧？可能是他们的某个合作伙伴。所以，从技术上讲，甚至可能是NVIDIA在购买AMD的芯片，用来组装Stargate项目的某个部分。

And obviously, as you noted, it's sort of dependent on the business agreements between these two companies. And then there's like the other layer where, as as you just noted, it doesn't necessarily have to be OpenAI that's buying the chips. Right? It could be one of their partners. And so, I mean, it it could be NVIDIA technically, I guess, you know, that would be buying AMD chips to help put together one of the Stargate operation things.

因为这也是其中的一层关系。对吧？再退一步从宏观来看，OpenAI似乎意识到他们需要在很多方面掌控自己的命运，尤其是在成本控制上。极端来说，他们可能无法继续依赖大型云服务提供商，无论是目前的微软还是现在加入的甲骨文。他们需要以更好的方式控制成本，这意味着最终要在某种程度上建立自己的数据中心。

Like, because that's a layer of this too. Right? That again, stepping back at the highest level, it seems like OpenAI realizes that they need to control their own destiny in many ways, but certainly on the cost front. And to the ultimate extreme, they probably can't be paying one of the massive cloud providers, be it, you know, Microsoft as it's been to date and then sort of Oracle too now. All of them, they need to be able to control their costs in a better way, and doing that means eventually at some point sort of controlling your own data centers to some extent.

因此，感觉这些合作都是为了给OpenAI搭建自建数据中心的基石。这次与AMD的合作大概也是其中一环。但再次强调，由合作伙伴来执行这一点，我认为这与Stargate合作伙伴能在自己的数据中心使用这些技术有关。比如甲骨文现在控制着得克萨斯州阿比林的数据中心——这是目前唯一在建的项目，而其他合作还处于签约阶段。那么问题来了：谁有权限购买这些处理器？

And so it feels like a lot of these deals are coming together to allow OpenAI to put in place the building blocks to build their own data centers quite literally. And this AMD deal presumably is also a part of that. But again, the wrinkle of it being one of the partners doing it, again, I think that that's related, just thinking on the fly here, related to Stargate partners being able to use it in their own data center. So like Oracle famously controls the one right now in Abilene, Texas that's only one that's actually being built right now, in the process of being built, while the others are still just sort of being signed and squared away. And so, again, like, who gets what rights to purchase, you know, the processors?

谁有权限购买AMD的股份？AMD再次这样做，是否只是因为这已成为行业标配？顺便说，这种叙事确实奏效了。对吧？他们的股价现在暴涨了。

Who gets what rights to purchase the shares in AMD. And is AMD simply doing this again because it's sort of become like the table stakes thing? And by the way, it worked in terms of the narrative of it. Right? Like, their stock is up a huge amount right now.

股价正在飙升。没错。所以很明显，这也起了作用。他们看到这些交易完成后，股价就会一飞冲天，因为投资者突然又对AMD兴奋起来，毕竟他们做了和英伟达、英特尔等其他玩家类似的交易。

It's flying because Yeah. Right. So, like, obviously, that comes into play too. They all see that these deals get done, and then the stock goes through the roof because investors are excited all of a sudden again about about AMD because they're doing a similar deal to, you know, what what NVIDIA and and Intel and all the other players have done.

先暂停一下，说说这个27%。这是我们第二次看到这种情况了。对吧？AMD今天涨了27%。甲骨文当初与OpenAI达成合作时，股价也是直冲云霄。

Just wanna pause on the 27%. We've seen this is the second time we've seen something like this happen. Right? AMD is up 27% today. Oracle, of course, blasted into Orbit when it made its deal with OpenAI.

我们这期节目不会重点讨论股市，主要谈产品和合作伙伴关系。但值得指出的是，这种股市狂热是基于基础设施投入而非实际收入，完全建立在极其激进的收入预测上——尤其考虑到企业客户在这方面的进展异常缓慢。

We're gonna we're really not gonna focus on the stock market in this show. We're gonna talk mostly about product and and partnerships, but it it is worth noting. Right? Like, this exuberance in the stock stock market is based off of infrastructure spend and not revenue. It's all based off of revenue projections, and those rep revenue projections are extremely aggressive, especially when you consider the fact that enterprises are moving exceptionally slow here.

这对我来说是个危险信号。

This is a red flag to me.

这就回到我之前发的帖子，我写的原因——再次基于Sam的评论展开——因为我脑子里唯一能想到的，关于他们可能讨论的这种新融资方式或什么的，其实并不是真正的新融资方式。本质上是在利用债务让飞轮转起来，显然通过杠杆化债务，尤其是用于数据中心建设这类事情，并不新鲜。但你在这里暗示的，可能正是其中的新元素——这些参与者都在交易收入。而且，再次强调，这始于OpenAI同意与另一家合作伙伴达成巨额交易。但众所周知，这已被广泛报道，OpenAI没有足够的资金来完全履行这些交易。

And so that goes back to my post, the reason I wrote, you know, again, off of riffing off of Sam's comments, because the only thing that I could think about, you know, in my head of, like, what they were, presumably talking about with this new method of financing or whatever, wasn't actually new method of financing. It's basically using debt in a way to sort of get a flywheel going so that you know, obviously, leveraging debt, especially for for data center build outs and things of that nature, not is nothing new. But what you what you're sort of alluding to here is exactly what might be the new element of it in that they these players are all trading revenue. And and, you know, again, it starts with OpenAI agreeing to do these massive deals with another partner. But as everyone knows, this has been widely reported, OpenAI doesn't have the money to do these know, the deals to the extent.

他们银行里确实没有足够的钱来完成这些正在讨论的交易。所以现在我们看到其他交易，比如新的英伟达交易，他们承诺投入高达1000亿美元。不一定需要那么多，从10亿开始，对吧？

They don't have the money in the bank literally to do the deals, you know, to the extent that these these are talking about. And so now we get these other deals like the new NVIDIA one where it's like they are promising to, you know, commit up to a $100,000,000,000. It doesn't have to be that much. It starts with 10. Right?

听起来最初可能是承诺10亿，取决于双方对最终敲定这笔交易的诚意。但一开始是10亿，然后分九期再投入10亿，最终达到1000亿。但所有这些的时间安排——真的有资金存入银行账户来支付实际建设项目吗？还是全都基于信用额度？

10, it sounds like, is is maybe committed depending on how how committed these two are to actually, you know, finalizing this deal. But it's like 10 comes in at first, and then another 10 comes in over, you know, in basically over nine tranches. They would they would get this a 100,000,000,000. But the timing of that all, like, is there actual money going into bank accounts to pay for something, you know, physically being built at some point, or is it all just being based off of, like, lines of credit? You know?

可能只是芯片交易。也许OpenAI会用英伟达的芯片来支付这些AMD芯片。或许他们直接开走Jensen的一卡车芯片，送到Lisa Sue那儿说：我们现在要你公司10%的股份。

It could just be chips. Maybe OpenAI is gonna pay for these AMD chips with NVIDIA chips. Maybe they're just gonna take one of Jensen's trucks of chips, drive it over to Lisa Sue, and be like, we'll take 10% of your company right now.

如果这些芯片真的像大家预测的那样短缺，那它们比等重的黄金还值钱。从这个角度看，它们确实算是一种价值储存手段。但说到这让你感到不安，房间里显而易见的大象是——哪怕出现最小的放缓，不必是大规模回调，只要在多个（或者说任何一个）当前火热的领域出现放缓，就可能引发连锁反应，导致整个体系崩塌。

I mean, if these chips are really at the shortage limits that's everyone's projecting, like, they're worth more than their weight in gold. And so, you know, like, they are somewhat of a of an actual value store, I guess, in that in that way. But but, you know, the thing you're talking about how this makes you uncomfortable, the obvious elephant in the room that, again, everyone will know is, like, even the smallest slowdown happens, not not even, like, a massive correction. If a slowdown happens in in several of on several of these fronts, on any number of sorry, I should say, on any one of these, like, several fronts that are going right now, it can start like, it seems like it would start a cascading effect that would potentially bring down the entire thing. And Oh, yeah.

然后债务被催收，人们无力偿还，新合同重新谈判，银行可能开始持有部分资产，政府也不得不介入——就像我们讨论过的英特尔交易中他们明显愿意做的那样。现在发生的种种怪事，我觉得历史上都没有太多先例。

Then we got debt being called, and we got people unable to pay, and we've got new, you know, contracts being renegotiated and and people taking out you know, does the bank own you know, do banks start owning some of the stuff? And and and does the government have to step in as, you know, they basically are clearly open to doing in deals like with Intel as we talked about. And so there's all sorts of weird things that are happening right now that I don't think that there's a ton of precedent for in history.

没错。正如我们之前隐约提及甚至明确提到的，《华尔街日报》那篇报道中有个非常耐人寻味的句子，记者写道：英伟达的交易尚未完成。两家公司已签署意向书，但尚未在监管文件中披露具体条款。那么这件事真的在进行中吗？我是说，

Right. And as we've sort of danced around or even mentioned so far, there was a very interesting line in the Wall Street Journal story where the reporter writes, the NVIDIA deal isn't completed yet. The two companies have signed a letter of intent and have yet to disclose specific terms in the regulatory filings. So is that is that actually happening? I mean,

我们无法确定。这里有几个关键点：首先，OpenAI这份意向书现在是什么状态？要知道，他们之前和微软那笔交易，只用几十个字就宣布达成了原则性协议，但实际条款尚未敲定，所以这还不算板上钉钉。

we can't say for certain. So and then so there's a few things here. One, that what is up with OpenAI's letter of intent, like, love now? You know, they did the Microsoft one. They announced with, you know, a couple dozen words that they they had a agreement to agree with Microsoft on new terms, but they have no actual terms to agree upon yet, and so it's not a done deal.

现在英伟达这笔交易本质上也是个框架协议。你不禁会想，AMD看到后会不会觉得应该在交易落定前插足，争取其他合作可能。报道中确实提到——我记得奥尔特曼可能在推文或其他场合也说过——他明确表示英伟达仍是主要合作伙伴。这并非中途换马，对吧？

Now this NVIDIA one is also basically an agreement to agree to, you know, a deal. And, you know, you have to sort of wonder if AMD didn't see that and think, like, maybe we should swoop in here before this is a done deal and sort of get something else done. And and, you know, in the report there, they do say, like, and and I think Altman I saw it maybe it was even a tweet or or he said it somewhere else, but he sort of makes it clear that NVIDIA is still like a main partner. Right? This isn't like this isn't them switching horses, you know, in in the middle of a deal being done.

但延续这个比喻的话，确实能感觉到某种程度的暗中角力。比如苏姿丰可能看到交易未最终敲定，就想趁机介入，看能否分一杯羹——就算抢不到全部生意，至少也能参与部分。况且这笔交易据说涉及推理业务，而英伟达虽也在该领域，却想像垄断模型训练市场那样主导这个领域。这里面水很深。

But there is, you know, to to continue the analogy, there is some level of jockeying that it feels like is happening here. Right? Where it's like, again, maybe Lisa Su saw that this deal was not finalized, and so she could sort of come in and say, what can we do, you know, alongside this if nothing else, if we can't take some of this business? Then there's a whole like, this is apparently for inference and, you know, obviously, NVIDIA is in that game too, but wants to be own that game like they do with with actual model training right now, know. And so there's that whole element.

还有OpenAI与博通的交易，可能促使他们加速与英伟达的谈判，避免完全走上自研芯片的道路。虽然看起来他们仍在推进自研计划，但速度可能放缓了——毕竟如我们之前讨论的，他们想优化整个技术栈。总之局势非常复杂。

There's the element of the Broadcom deal that that OpenAI has, which maybe kick started some of these NVIDIA deal talks between OpenAI and and NVIDIA so that they didn't go down the path fully of making their own chips. Sounds like they're still doing it, but maybe not as fast as they would have previously because, again, they wanna hone the whole stack as we talked about. So, yeah, lot lot going on.

我不是说这一定会发生，但你可以想象这样一个场景：未来某天这个合作崩盘后，我们回溯所有这些线索时，会惊觉当初怎么没看出这是个显而易见的危机？那些意向书、巨额亏损、天价投资、企业落地困难...没错，OpenAI今年营收预计130亿美元，但报道称到2029年累计亏损将达1200亿美元。

I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but I do think that you could, in your mind, imagine a scenario where you connect all these dots, looking backwards from, you know, in the future where there is a collapse here, and you could say, how did we not, like, think this was a blatant collapse waiting to happen? The letters of intent, the losses, the size of the investment, the fact that enterprise is struggling to implement this stuff. Yes, ChatGPT or OpenAI is gonna bring in 13,000,000,000 this year. At least it's on on track to do that, but it's gonna lose, according to reports, a 120,000,000,000 by 2029. Right.

重申我们常说的免责声明——我认为这他妈极其重要——技术是真实的。ChatGPT和各种大模型确实在不断进步，但融资结构至少可以说...非常诡异。

Again, like the caveat we always say, and I think this is it's a very freaking important caveat, is that the technology is real. ChatGPT and and and all of these GPTs or or or all these LLMs are getting getting better as we go, but the financing definitely is is wonky, say the least.

是的。当你稍微放慢脚步思考这个问题时，感觉就像一场旨在利用速度的震慑行动。我确实认为OpenAI基本上就是在执行这样的策略，利用他们不断强调的‘这是一个独特的历史时刻’这一事实。我们必须尽可能快地行动，这是一场通往通用人工智能或超级智能的竞赛，我们需要立即行动。

Yeah. And it feels a bit like, you know, when you do slow down for a second and try to think about this, it feels like a shock and awe campaign meant to leverage speed. And I do think that this is basically what OpenAI is running a playbook of, of leveraging the fact that as they keep talking about, this is a unique moment in time. We need to move as fast as possible. We have there's so much this is the race to AGI or super intelligence, and we need to do this right now.

我们不能等待。如果你犹豫不决，别人就会抢先达成这些交易。要么参与其中，要么出局——他们利用这种时间压力，迫使人们做出在正常情况下，尤其是对首席财务官而言，会感到非常不适的决策。

We can't wait. If you're waiting, someone else is going to step in and do these deals. Like, you're either in or you're out and just using that time pressure to basically force the hands of people into pretty uncomfortable what would normally be pretty certainly for a CFO, a very uncomfortable calculation to to make in these situations.

没错。我想他们这么做也有一定的道理，对吧？确实如此。

Right. And I guess there is some logic to them doing that. Right? And it Yeah.

毫无疑问。

Is For sure.

是竞争对吧？我在Xor上关注了一个账号，它总出现在我的时间线上。由于算法主宰，我都分不清关注了谁，但那人名叫Burkov。

It's the competition. Right? And there's this there's this account that I follow on on Xor. It seems to pop up in my timeline all the time. Can't tell who I follow anymore because of our algorithmic overlords, but it's a the person's name is Burkov.

Burkov说谷歌、Anthropic和OpenAI正在打消耗战。后两者的困境在于资金来自投资者而非客户，而谷歌已实现盈利且用户稳定。再加上三者中只有谷歌能以极低成本获得无限GPU供应——这场消耗战的结局不言而喻。显然，此人极度看好谷歌胜出，这确实有可能。

And Burkov says Google Anthropic and OpenAI are currently fighting a war of attrition. The problem for the latter two is their cash comes not from clients, but from investors, while Google is profitable and no longer losing users. Add this to the fact that among the three only Google has its own infinite supply of GPUs for the price of peanuts and draw your conclusion on how this war of attrition will end. Now, obviously, this person is is very bullish on Google winning this this moment. It's quite possible.

但我认为OpenAI可能完全明白自己面对的是什么对手。顺便说，OpenAI还要应对Meta和马斯克——这下你明白为何我们会如此匆忙...

But I think maybe that's the sort of OpenAI fully understands the fact that it's matched up against them. By the way, also OpenAI also, sorry, Meta and Elon, and then you sort of see why we have this rush the way we

是的，这完全前所未有，有这么多拥有巨额资本的巨头能够投入运作。但我完全赞同这一观点，我也曾就此写过一些内容。甚至在Sam最新帖子引发讨论之前，这就是我一直在隐约触及的主题，最终得以明确表达——至少在我看来，当前形势下确实如此。虽然Meta显然正面临一些困境，但他们在尝试重启系统。而埃隆那边，他们流失了大量人才，那里正发生许多奇怪的事情。

It's it's, yeah, completely unprecedented to have this many massive players with this amount of capital being able to be put to work. But I totally agree with that stance, and I've written a little bit about this. Like, the even before, yeah, the riffing off of Sam's newest post, it was the the main thing I've been sort of dancing around and and finally was able to put this down, but it's like, it really does feel to me at least at this moment in time given that Meta obviously is struggling a bit, but is trying to reboot the system. Elon, like, they're losing a lot of people. Like, there's a lot of weird stuff going on there.

那边有巨额支出在发生。当然，他的募资能力无人能及。所以目前资金不是问题，但情况确实有些诡异。Anthropic则像是另一种存在，他们新的营销策略似乎也在强化这种定位——他们是否会成为低配版的反OpenAI角色？

There's a lot of spend going on there. He can fundraise like no other, of course. So, you know, he's he's good for it now, but, like, there's weirdness there. Anthropic is a different beast, it feels like, you know, with their mart their new marketing campaign sort of plays to that. Like, are they gonna be now set up as the the anti OpenAI type play but at a lower level?

因此在我看来，虽然绕了个大圈子，但目前的格局基本就是OpenAI与谷歌的双雄争霸。OpenAI看待谷歌时肯定在想：天啊，他们拥有规模化所需的一切资源，而且正如你所说，还不需要消耗投资者资金。他们利润惊人，完全可以自主推进。当然Meta也盈利，扎克伯格总说可以靠利润支撑，这没错。

And then so to me, anyway, it's a long winded way of saying it feels like this is basically right now, as it stands, a two horse race between OpenAI and Google. And I do think that OpenAI looks at Google and just says like, oh my god, they have everything that they need to do this at scale while, as you noted, not having to burn investor capital. They had they they're insanely profitable. They can do this on their own. And by the way, unlike Meta, which is also profitable and Zuck talks up like, yeah, we can we can fund this via profits, which is true.

但他们没有谷歌的基础设施，没有谷歌的CPU资源，也缺乏谷歌那种应对史无前例大规模建设所需的各类专业能力。所以我认为Sam和OpenAI团队都清楚：虽然局面复杂，各种因素干扰程度不同，有些是真实竞争，但真正构成威胁的是谷歌。因此我的核心观点就是：OpenAI必须在谷歌打造出ChatGPT之前，先建成自己的谷歌云。

But they don't have infrastructure that Google does, and they don't have the the CPUs that Google does, and they don't have all of the sort of other various expertise to sort of scale this type of unprecedented massive build out scale that Google is able to do. And so I think Sam and everyone else at OpenAI just says like, there's a lot going on. All these things are varying degrees of noise and some is real competition, but Google is the one that really has the opportunity. And so my headline idea was basically OpenAI needs to build Google Cloud before Google can build ChatGPT. Right.

事情就是这么个走向。对，没错。

And that's, like, how it goes. Yep. Yeah.

关于这个话题还有几点补充，实在有太多有趣的角度了。说到Sam Altman的推文，让我们看看你提到的那条：'很高兴与AMD合作使用他们的芯片服务用户'，这是Sam发的。

Couple more things on this. It's just so many interesting aspects to this. And that and speaking of Sam Altman, criminology, let's take a look at the tweet that you referenced. Excited to partner with AMD to use their chips to serve our users. This is from Sam.

他接着说：'这与我们和英伟达的合作是互补的，我们计划逐步增加英伟达产品采购量。' 有位敏锐的前用户评论道：'所有人都惧怕黄仁勋。这篇声明提到英伟达的次数比AMD还多，尽管合作对象是AMD。黄仁勋可能会因此把他们从优先名单上降级。'

He says, this is all incremental to our work with NVIDIA, and we plan to increase our NVIDIA purchasing over time. An astute ex user said, everyone is scared of Jensen. This post mentions NVIDIA more times than AMD despite the deal being about AMD. Jensen might bump them down in the preference list due to this.

你怎么看？是的。我很高兴你发现了这一点，因为我确实很快就注意到了。这是个很好的观点，而且这也是另一个影响因素，就像为什么OpenAI和NVIDIA达成那笔交易的部分原因。现在，如果你想成为这个游戏的主要玩家，显然必须与NVIDIA合作。

What do think? Yeah. And I'm glad you found that one because, yes, that I think I saw that quickly. And that is a great point about it, and and that's another thing that's at play here, like and also why it felt like at least a part of why OpenAI and NVIDIA struck that deal. It's like, right now, if you wanna be a main player in this game, you've obviously gotta work with NVIDIA.

众所周知，虽然他们声称没有偏袒，但如果他们打算向你投资，比如1000亿美元，你就能获得他们的芯片。他们不会亏待你。但如果你背地里与AMD达成交易，可能就不再是芯片供应的优先对象了。所以我觉得这有点像对待特朗普总统那样，你得公开表示忠诚，展示谁才是真正的主导者。

And as everyone knows, like, while they'll they say they don't play favorites, like, if they're gonna invest, whatever, a $100,000,000,000 into you, like, you're going to get access to their chips. Like, they're not going to screw you over. But if you did a deal with AMD behind their back, like, maybe you're not first in line for those chips anymore. And so I think you have to sort of like you have to do with President Trump. You got to sort of do the public fealty and and show, and show who's really in charge.

好的。关于这个，我最后一个问题是：为什么OpenAI想要持有AMD 10%的股份？除了...我不知道，你能告诉我这对他们有什么好处吗？

Okay. Here's my last question about this. Why would OpenAI want to own 10% of AMD? I cannot figure out why it is advantageous for them other than, I don't know. You tell me.

这笔交易到底是怎么回事？

What what's the deal?

对此我也有些困惑。我想，唯一能解释的还是我之前说的——这已经变成了一种奇怪的赌桌筹码，这些公司互相交换所有权，而且是相当大比例的股份。后续肯定会有相关报道解释为什么这部分变得如此重要。但就像苏姿丰在采访中提到的，这能统一双方利益，因为OpenAI现在可能持有AMD股份，所以他们会共同确保彼此在未来的发展中同进退。不过，一家上市公司出售高达10%的股份...

I'm sort of at a loss too for that. I I think, like, again, the only thing I would come back to is what I said earlier. It's like, this has now become, like, a weird table stakes thing of, like, these companies trading ownership, you know, and quite high percentages of ownership within, you know, each other. There's there's gonna be subsequent reporting about this, obviously, as to why that part became a a big part of it, but it it's like, think Lisa Su has a quote in there of, like, saying that it aligns their interest because OpenAI, you know, will now obviously have a potentially have an ownership stake in AMD, and so they'll be aligned about, like, you know, making sure that they're along for the ride, you know, wherever that ride takes them, I guess. But, like, yeah, that's it's a public company selling up to 10% of of their shares.

而且，这是一家私有公司在购买，非常非常奇怪。我猜OpenAI可能喜欢这样，因为如果他们将来上市，这可以作为资产负债表上的另一项资产，展示他们持有价值数百亿的AMD股份。但我真的不确定。

It's like and, again, it's a private company buying. It's, like, very, very strange. I guess OpenAI might like it because it's, like, just something else to have on the balance sheet when if and when they go public, and they can say, like, look. We have these shares worth 10% of of AMD, and it's worth x, you know, hundreds of whatever it is, billions of dollars. And I I don't know.

我有点在瞎猜了。

I'm I'm sort of drawing at straws here.

没错。现在微软和英伟达还要用他们投入的资金收购AMD。

Right. And now Microsoft and NVIDIA are gonna own AMD as well for the money that they put in Yeah.

间接助力。

To help Indirectly.

帮OpenAI打造通用人工智能。如果搞不成AGI，至少能拿到些AMD股票。虽然不是最理想的星座股价，但总比什么都没有强。

OpenAI build AGI. Well, if you don't get AGI, you can get some AMD shares. It's a not the best Constellation price, but worth it's worth more than nothing.

真诡异。

So weird.

好的。这些算力到底要用来做什么？广告休息后，MG和我要讨论Sam Altman与Johnny Ives研发AI设备的尝试——但为什么这个项目会因为算力短缺等问题陷入困境？广告之后马上回来。第一资本的科技团队可不只是空谈多智能体AI。

Okay. What is this compute gonna be used for? On the other side of this break, MG and I are gonna talk about Sam Altman and Johnny Ives' attempt to build an AI device, and but why, that is running into trouble because of a lack of, among other things, compute. We'll be back right after this. Capital One's tech team isn't just talking about multi agentic AI.

他们已经部署了一个，叫聊天管家，正在简化购车流程。通过自我反思和分层推理配合实时API检查，它不仅帮买家找到心仪车型，还能安排试驾、获取贷款预批、估算旧车置换价值。先进、直观、已落地。

They already deployed one. It's called chat concierge, and it's simplifying car shopping. Using self reflection and layered reasoning with live API checks, it doesn't just help buyers find a car they love. It helps schedule a test drive, get preapproved for financing, and estimate trade in value. Advanced, intuitive, and deployed.

这就是他们的技术实力。这就是第一资本的科技。

That's how they stack. That's technology at Capital One.

现在到底发生了什么，为什么会以这种方式发生？在《连线》杂志，我们每天都痴迷于深入探究这些问题，或许你也是。我是凯蒂·德拉蒙德，《连线》的全球编辑总监，正在主持我们的新播客系列——大访谈。每周，我都会与一些最有趣、最具挑衅性和影响力的人物坐下来交谈，他们正在塑造我们的当下。大访谈的对话充满乐趣

What the hell is going on right now, and why is it happening like this? At Wired, we're obsessed with getting to the bottom of those questions on a daily basis, and maybe you are too. I'm Katie Drummond, the global editorial director of Wired, and I'm hosting our new podcast series, the big interview. Each week, I'll sit down with some of the most interesting, provocative, and influential people who are shaping our right now. Big interview conversations are fun

我想要一条鲨鱼

I want a shark

它能吞噬整个互联网，将其全部关闭。毫无过滤，无所畏惧。

that eats the Internet that turns it all off. Unfiltered and unafraid.

所以在很多方面，我尽力成为你在网上看到的那种难以想象的、源源不断的反动内容的解毒剂，尽我所能。

So in a lot of ways, I try to be an antidote to the unimaginable faucet of reactionary content that you see online to the best of my ability.

每周，我们都会为你提供

Every week, we're going to offer you the ultimate luxury of

我们这个

our

时代最奢侈的东西——意义与语境。真假题：你，布莱恩·约翰逊，坐在我对面的这个男人，有一天，在未来的某个尚未确定的时刻，你会死去。假的。详细说说。

times, meaning and context. True or false? You, Brian Johnson, the man sitting across from me, one day, at some point, as of yet undefined in the future, you will die. False. Tell me more.

立即收听重磅访谈节目，就在你发现《连线》杂志诡异谷播客的同一平台。订阅或关注你获取播客的任何渠道。

Listen to the big interview right now in the same place you find wired's uncanny valley podcast. Subscribe or follow wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎回到大型科技播客，我是MG Seigler。他是《SpyGlass》的作者，你可以在spyglass.org找到这本书。里面有很多精彩的故事。MG，你九月的表现真的令人印象深刻。在我们谈话前我就喜欢浏览这些故事，你基本上是我了解这个疯狂世界所有事件的首选信息来源，包括这篇即将在本周末发布的非常有趣的报道，关于Sam Altman和Johnny Ive在他们神秘的AI设备上遇到了一些，我们可以说是，速度上的阻碍。

And we're back here on big technology podcast with MG Seigler. He's the author of SpyGlass, which you can find at spyglass.org. Lots of great stories in there. Really, an impressive September from you, MG. I just like going through the stories before we talked and, I you are my go to source for basically everything that's happening in this crazy world, including this, very interesting report that we have coming out really over the weekend today, about how Sam Altman and Johnny Ive are hitting some, speed bumps, shall we say, with their secretive AI device.

我简要地从《Feet》中读一段。OpenAI和明星设计师Johnny Ive正在努力解决他们神秘的新AI设备的一系列技术问题，他们计划明年推出一款重磅科技产品。他们的目标是创造一款手掌大小的带屏幕设备，能够从物理环境中接收音频和视觉线索，并响应用户的请求。然而，OpenAI和Ive尚未解决可能延迟设备发布的关键问题。这些问题包括决定助手的个性、隐私问题，以及为运行OpenAI模型所需的大规模计算设备预算计算能力，而且有人告诉《Feet》，一位接近Ive的人士表示，计算能力是延迟的一个巨大因素。

I'll read from the Feet briefly. OpenAI and star designer Johnny Ive are grappling with a series of technical issues with their secretive new AI device as they push to launch a blockbuster tech product next year. Their aim is to create a palm sized device with a screen that can take audio and visual and visual cues from the physical environment and respond to users' requests. OpenAI and Ive have yet to solve critical problems that could delay the device's release, though. These include, deciding on the assistant's personality, privacy issues, and budgeting for the computing power needed to run OpenAI models on a mass computer device, and there's a person that tells, the Feet, somebody close to Ive, that, compute is a huge factor in the delay.

亚马逊有Alexa的计算能力，谷歌也有，但OpenAI正在努力为ChatGPT获取足够的计算能力，更不用说一个AI设备了。他们需要先解决这个问题。好了。我们将讨论这款设备的本质，因为我们正在了解它将是什么样子。但首先，关于一位接近Ive的人士向《Feet》抱怨OpenAI没有足够的计算能力来运行这款设备的重要性，对我来说这非常有趣，我认为这不是一个好兆头。

Amazon has the compute for Alexa, so does Google, but OpenAI is struggling to get enough compute for ChatGPT, let alone an AI device. They need to fix that first. Alright. We're gonna talk about the nature of this device because we're getting, like, a picture of what it's gonna look like. But first on the significance of somebody close to Ive complaining to the Feet that OpenAI doesn't have enough compute for this device to run, that to me is is pretty interesting and I think not a good sign.

这是一个价值数十亿美元的合作。对于一位接近Ive的人士这样说，你知道，关于设备遇到速度阻碍的报道，这不是一个好兆头。MG，你怎么看？

And this is a multibillion dollar tie up. It's not a good sign for the fact that, somebody close to Ive is saying this, you know, for a story about the device hitting speed speed bumps. What do you think, MG?

是的，是的。这背后的元素超级有趣。你不得不怀疑。对我来说，这感觉几乎像是，你知道，我不想说这是有意泄露，但我确实觉得方向性很有趣，他们基本上是在告诉市场这款设备不会按时推出。

Yeah. Yeah. The behind the scenes element of that is is super interesting. You have to wonder. To me, it sort of felt almost as if it's, you know, prob I'm I I don't wanna say it's an intentional leak, but I do feel like it's directionally interesting that they're basically telling the market that this device is not going to be on time.

因为最初的报道说，它可能会在明年年底，也就是2026年推出。所以，对我来说，这信号表明现在更像是2027年的事情。我认为这种引用可能有助于让这个消息传出去，这样人们不会突然开始为一年后的倒计时做准备，当这款设备没有上市时。但我也认为，这份报道中包含了很多内容，包括，是的，这款设备可能是什么。他们没有直接说出来，但我想很多人在双方开始合作时，尤其是收购发生时——那感觉像是二十年前，但实际上只是几个月前，这再次让人感到疯狂——读过那些原始报道的人都会想到很多。

Like, because their original reports, right, were that it was gonna be probably sometime at the end of next year, the '26. And so, you know, this to me signals that this is more like a 2027 type thing now. And I think that that sort of quote maybe helps that, you know, get out there so people aren't expecting, you know, have a countdown all of a sudden for a year from now when when this device doesn't hit the market. But I also think, like, there's a lot in that in that report including, yeah, like, what this device, you know, potentially is. They don't come out and say it directly, but, you know, a lot I think a lot of us who read those original, like, reports when the when the two sides both started working together, but then obviously when the acquisition happened, which also feels like twenty years ago, but was only a few months ago, which is, again, wild.

但我觉得，我们都不约而同地认为它不一定是可穿戴设备，尽管Meta和其他公司正在研发这类产品，而是某种以语音为先的设备，至少在初期，你会随身携带它作为智能手机的补充。所以它是智能手机的辅助设备。这是其中的一个方面。然后，关于让它运作所需的数据部分，我很好奇为什么会有计算能力不足的抱怨，除了我们现在在Sora和其他所有事物中普遍看到的计算能力问题。

But I think, you know, we all sort of zeroed in on it being not necessarily a wearable, even though that was, you know, what Meta and, you know, others were working on, but that it could be some sort of thing that's, you know, a voice first device that you carry around alongside, at least to start, certainly a smartphone. So it's a complimentary device to a smartphone. So there's that element of it. And then, yeah, the data element of like what would be required to make this work. It's sort of I'm curious why that compute complaint is in place other than the general compute complaint that we're seeing with Sora and everything else right now.

对吧？他们总是某种程度上受限于计算能力。现在他们正在限制Sora视频的生成数量。最近他们把24小时内的生成量从100降到了30，因为我总是达到上限。

Right? Like, they're always compute constrained to some degree. And, you know, right now they're rate limiting the creation of Sora videos. They they just jumped it down. I saw recently from a 100 in twenty four hours because I keep hitting it to now it's 30.

所以他们确实感受到了限制，或者说计算压力。关于这个传闻中的以语音为先的设备，报道说它也会配备摄像头。这真的会消耗那么多数据吗？也许部分原因在于它显然一直在监听，一直处于开启状态，可能一直在录音。

And so they're really feeling constraints, it feels like, or feeling the compute pressure on that. And so with this presumed voice first device, report is that there will be cameras involved with it too. Like, is that really gonna be that big of a data hog? And maybe the part of it that is is the fact that it's apparently always listening. It's always on, always maybe recording.

所以这可能是部分原因，但这个报道很有趣，说这是主要问题之一。

So that's maybe part of it, but it's it's a curious it's a curious bit of reporting that that that's, like, the issue, one of the main issues.

对。我想你指的是计算能力不应该是主要的——显然这是个问题，但不应该是

Right. And I think what you're getting at is the compute shouldn't be the main I mean, obviously, it's an issue. It shouldn't be the

主要的阻碍推出的因素。他们可以限制使用量。是的。

main The main thing that would stop a rollout. They could just limit it. It was. Yeah.

对。即使是这样，如果Johnny Ive团队的人想泄露我们遇到了一些问题，泄露的内容不仅仅是‘我们延迟了’，而是互相指责，这在我看来意味着这些团队合作得不好。就像一支运动队崩溃了一样，对吧？

Right. And even if it was, and you and someone from Johnny Ive's team wanted to leak out that we're having some issues. You know, the fact that they the leak was not just we're delayed, but finger pointing, to me, points to the idea that these teams aren't working well. I mean, like, if you have a sports team and they collapse. Right?

一支运动队连输几场比赛后，你总会听到运动员们说，我们需要作为一个团队做得更好。我们需要进步。然后假设他们连输六场——我对这很熟悉，因为我支持的球队总是一输就是六连败——这时他们就开始互相指责了。他们会说，防守端根本守不住。

A sports team that loses a couple games, you hear the athletes, and they're always like, we need to do better as a team. We need to get better. And then let's say they lose six games in a row, and I'm familiar with this because all of my teams lose six games in a row. That's when they start finger pointing. And they say, well, the defense wasn't holding up.

这是交易的一部分，或者说，我们打序末端的击球员必须挺身而出。而他们现在却说，OpenAI连ChatGPT的算力都捉襟见肘，更别提AI设备了。他们得解决这个问题。唉，有人会把这种话公开说出来，我觉得相当令人担忧。

It's part of the bargain, or, you know, we we really you know, our our hitters at the bottom of the order need to need to come through. And and for them to say, OpenAI is struggling to get enough compute for ChatGPT, let alone an AI device. They need to fix that. Oof. That is the fact that someone would go to the Feet with that is is, I think, fairly concerning.

听你现在这么说，让我联想到我们之前讨论Sora时的情形，因为那正是他们当前算力受限的典型例证——至少从表面看是这样。但感觉像是，OpenAI现在同时推进着各种项目。众所周知，他们请来另一位CEO（Fiji Simu Simu）协助处理这些事务。所以似乎存在某种资源争夺，各团队都在确保自己能获得所需算力，以便将产品推向市场。

Hearing you say that now, it sort of brings into my mind, like, the idea of sort of what we were talking about with Sora because that's, like, the the prime example of of their compute constraint at the moment, at least forward facing wise. But it sort of feels like, okay. There's all these different things going on at at OpenAI in the moment. And now famously, they brought in another CEO to help to help deal with all that in in Fiji Simu Simu. And so it feels like there's maybe some jockeying happening for making sure that each team gets their level of compute that they want to get or feel like they need to get in order to to fully be able to to bring their product to market.

而此刻恰逢Sora正在让他们的服务器不堪重负。但显然，他们还在开发其他模型，幕后还有其他算力需求，还有其他产品线，包括正在进行的智能体研究。感觉这或许只是某种资源分配的博弈——毕竟你们花大价钱引进了IO团队。

And, like, the happens to be the time when Sora is really sort of just blowing up their servers at the moment. But, obviously, they're working on other models and there's other needs for compute that are going on behind the scenes. There's other products. There's all the agentic work that they're doing. And, you know, it feels like maybe this is just a way to ensure that like, hey, you guys spent a lot of money to bring on the IO team.

我们也需要确保获得应有的资源。

We need our to make sure that we have our our resources too.

是啊，我觉得...

Yeah. I think that's what

我总觉得他们不知为何没能得到这些资源。

I feel like they're not getting them for some reason.

既然你提到了背景，我认为这正是准确的解读。这让我想到OpenAI内部一直存在的一个问题，即团队之间争夺计算资源。我觉得之前那些因不满而离开的安全团队，他们主要的不满就在于没有足够的计算资源，无论是用来引导产品路线图，还是进行他们想要的检查或实验。

Now that you contextualize it, I think that's that's the exact right read. And it sort of sparks in my mind the fact that this has always been an issue at OpenAI, teams fighting for compute. And I think the safety teams, you know, of yesteryear that got upset and left, got upset mainly over the fact that they didn't have, enough compute to, either steer the product road map or do the checks that they wanted to or the experiments that they wanted to. So

这也类似于微软的情况，记得吗？OpenAI之前对微软的主要抱怨就是他们得不到所需的资源，感觉微软在忙自己的项目，没有全力支持他们。现在这种矛盾转移到了公司内部。

And it's also like what what Microsoft you know, remember, like, this is what OpenAI's main complaint about was was with Microsoft. Like, that they're not getting the resources that they need, and they feel like they're you know, Microsoft's working on their own projects, and why aren't you being fully committed to helping us? And and, you know, so now it's moved internal.

没错。我们稍微聊聊这个设备吧，因为我们确实获得了一些有趣的细节。根据The Information的报道，它大约有智能手机大小，用户通过摄像头、麦克风和扬声器与之交互。

Right. And, let's talk a little bit about what this device is because we we did get some interesting detail about what it's going to be. So this is from the Feet report. It's roughly the size of a smartphone. Users communicate, with it through a camera, microphone, and speaker.

它设计用于放置在桌面，但也可随身携带。设备始终保持开启状态，而非通过唤醒词触发。其传感器全天候收集数据，帮助构建虚拟助手的记忆功能。一个关键问题是确保设备只在必要时介入，避免过度发言或不知如何结束对话——这也是ChatGPT一直存在的问题。挺有意思的。

It is designed to sit on a desk or a table, but it can also be carried around by the user. The device is always on rather than, triggered by word or prompt. Its sensors gather data through the day that would help it build its virtual assistant's memory. One issue, is ensuring the device only chimes in when useful, preventing it from talking too much or not knowing when to finish the conversation, an ongoing issue with ChatGPT. It's interesting.

这让我有点想起那个friend.com的挂坠设备。

Sort of reminds me of the the friend.com pendant.

确实。Friend、Limitless，还有几款类似产品对吧？

Yeah. For sure. Friend, Limitless. There's a there's a few others. Right?

当然还有Humane（已停运）和rabbit——虽然感觉这些产品像是上辈子推出的。但没错，他们选择这条路线并不意外。我个人对此有些偏袒，因为十年前我就写过相关文章，预言会出现这类语音计算设备，不仅是Alexa那种，而是真正便携、常伴左右的形态。虽然发展不如预期，但我认为这只是时间问题。当OpenAI推出GPT-4o时附带语音功能——后来因斯嘉丽·约翰逊声音的争议闹得沸沸扬扬——这再次印证了我的观点。

And, obviously, Humane, RIP, and and rabbit, which also feels like decades ago that that came out. But, yeah, there it does again, this it feels a bit obvious that this is the path that they were gonna go down. I I feel like this is and and I'm somewhat biased because I've, like, long written about this dating back a decade where I thought that there there would be, like, you know, these vocal computing devices, not just Alexa, but, like, yeah, on the go and and always on you type things. And it hasn't played out exactly that way yet, but I do again, I feel like it's just a matter of time until someone nails these. And I do think that when chat when OpenAI rolled out GPT four o and alongside that, they did the voice element of it, which obviously they fame infamously got in trouble with for the Scarlett Johansson voice, which is what mainly what people remember now.

但如果你回想一下，大约一年前，准确说是一年多前，那时的语音技术已经令人难以置信地先进，与当时的最新技术相比。之后它不断进步，现在显然Gemini和其他系统也已将其整合。但像Alexa和Siri这类早期语音计算设备，它们过于关注单个设备和基础功能，我刚才就不小心触发了办公室里所有设备。

But if you remember back then, you know, it was about a year a little over a year ago, I think. It was just It insanely impressive like voice technology, right, compared to what the state of the art had been up until then. And it's been, you know, getting better and now obviously Gemini and everyone else has it integrated within their systems as well. But it feels like Alexa and Siri and the first sort of versions of these types of vocal computing devices, they focus so much on, like, the individual devices and the sort of rudimentary utility stuff. I just triggered all of my devices in my office here.

这种做法某种程度上限制了它们向更先进版本发展。当然，当时没人能预知大语言模型的发展方向。但随着GPT-4的推出及后续演进，语音计算已发展到足以支持这类设备运作的水平，硬件反而成了当前难点——虽然硬件从来都是难点。不过像亚马逊、苹果或谷歌这样的大公司有实力解决，问题在于OpenAI能否凭借从苹果挖来的约翰尼·艾维团队及其数十年规模化经验实现突破。

So once they did that, it sort of held them back from being able to do like the new fangled versions of these. Obviously, they couldn't have known at the time where LLMs would go and how this would evolve. But it feels like with that gbt four o rollout all that time ago and now the continued evolution, the voice computing element is there where it needs to be for a device like this to work, but the hardware part is now the hard part, which is always the hard part. But, you know, companies like Amazon or Apple or Google can figure that out because they have their massive companies at scale. Question is if OpenAI can do it with the team that Johnny I they acquired with Johnny Ives team and the team, most importantly, that he brought over from Apple who have done this at scale for decades.

这让我想到这些产品正在某种程度上的整合。我们刚提到的OpenAI、亚马逊、谷歌、脸书、苹果，它们似乎都在打造相同的东西。硬件或许是难点，但最终差异可能体现在内置助手的智能程度上。

And this brings me to this idea that they're all sort of all these products are consolidating in some way. Yeah. Like, we just named a bunch of companies, OpenAI, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple. They're all it seems like they're all building the same thing. And and so the the hardware might be the tough part, but then you sort of well, you'll eventually probably differentiate based off of the assistant inside.

这就是你对比OpenAI设备与苹果即将推出设备的观点：想象约翰尼·艾维介绍OpenAI首款硬件——一个无屏幕的数字生活伴侣时，苹果同时发布下一代硬件——一副带摄像头、可能内置视网膜屏幕的眼镜。一个运行ChatGPT，另一个运行Siri，这将形成鲜明对比。

And this was your take about, what's what's going on with with the OpenAI device compared to, the Apple's Apple device, that we're gonna see. So so you write, just imagine a world in which Johnny Ive introduces OpenAI's first hardware, a small screenless digital companion for your life, at the same time that Apple unveils their next hardware, a pair of glasses with cameras on your face and perhaps a screen in your eye. One runs on Chatuchi PT, the other on Siri. That would be quite the dichotomy.

事态正朝这个方向发展。考虑到我们讨论的延期因素，OpenAI设备发布时间可能与苹果全力推进的智能眼镜（据马克·古尔曼最新报道，苹果正搁置VisionPRO转攻该领域以对抗Meta）撞期。还有约翰尼·艾维对iPhone开创的屏幕世界感到失望的潜台词。

And it's sort of angling that way. Right? Like, these the timelines are sort of starting to line up, especially with what we're talking about with delays. You know, potentially, it's a OpenAI's device and where we know that Apple from the most recent Mark Gurman report is dropping sort of VisionPRO work to go for full steam ahead on these smart glasses to compete, you know, presumably with Meta and meet them in market. And there's the whole subtext thing going on with Johnny Ive being, you know, perhaps upset about the world that he helped usher in, right, with screens and everything else with the iPhone.

更耐人寻味的是，苹果不仅全力开发带摄像头的眼镜，据报道还将效仿Meta采用视网膜屏幕技术。而约翰尼·艾维却在打造零屏幕设备，这种理念碰撞非常有趣。我唯一想补充的是，或许过度强调无屏幕特性存在风险——不是说需要做成智能手机，但完全无屏可能影响实用性，某些场景仍需视觉展示。或许他们会通过手机通知解决，但我担心这过于刻意追求反屏幕理念。

And the fact that not only is Apple now, you know, going full steam ahead on glasses with cameras, but if they're, you know, again, reports are that they're gonna go down the path that Meta just did with with the screen in the eye, like, now we have screens in our eyes. And and Johnny Ive is making trying to make advice with zero screens. And so that is a very interesting butting butting of heads. I I would well, the only other thing I would add to that that I didn't write about in there, but I would be I'm slightly concerned that there's too much focus on it being a screenless device perhaps. Right?

当然不是说需要再造智能手机，我也认为人们可能愿意减少对手机的依赖。但我担忧完全无屏会降低易用性——有些场景确实需要屏幕展示而非语音交互。或许他们会说需要显示内容时会发送通知到手机，但我担心这过于执着于反屏幕的象征意义。

Like, I'm not saying that it needs to be another smartphone certainly. And I do think that there's probably a world and I think there's increasingly a world where people are maybe happy to move at least a bit away from being reliant on a smartphone. But I'm also worried a little bit that it would be harder to use with zero screens. You know, like, there's sometimes when you just need a screen for something to showcase versus doing it orally or or via another mechanism. Now maybe they could say, well, they'll send a notification to your phone if they if there's something they need to show you or something like that, but I'm a little worried that it's it's it's trying to do it just to make a point about anti screens.

与此同时，另一方面众所周知屏幕是所有设备中最耗电的部件。因此，如果能在无屏状态下实现功能，他们就能显著提升全天续航甚至可能达到一周的电池寿命。

At the same time, the other the flip side of that would be a screen, as everyone knows, is the biggest battery draw of any of of devices. And so, like, if they could do it without a screen, they can do a lot better in a all day battery life and maybe week battery life.

我认为它们最终都会配备屏幕。我记得亚马逊发布Echo设备时，顶部会发光并与用户对话的设计非常酷。三月份我们节目邀请了亚马逊设备与服务负责人帕诺斯·帕奈，他极力推荐我使用带屏幕的Echo Show，并强调没有屏幕的体验会大打折扣。我相信所有这类设备最终都会走向这个方向，有趣的是它们正以各自的方式殊途同归。

I think they're all gonna go screen. I remember when Amazon announced the Echo device, and it was so cool because it glowed at the top and talked to you. And we had, Panos Panay from Amazon, the head of devices and services, on the show in March, and he beseeched me to go get the Echo Show with the screen and said the experience wasn't gonna be the same without. And I think all these devices will end up getting there. And it's just kind of interesting how they're all converging in their own way.

让我理清这个逻辑：OpenAI在推动苹果开发助手设备，Meta在推动苹果做眼镜，亚马逊被各方要求改进Alexa，谷歌看似置身事外却拥有环境计算Gemini并也在研发眼镜。

Let me see if I get this right. You have OpenAI pushing Apple on the assistant device. You have Meta pushing Apple towards glasses. You have Amazon getting pushed by everybody to have a better Alexa. You have Google kind of standing out there to the side, but it has, ambient Gemini and is also working on glasses.

亚马逊显然正在

Amazon apparently is

亚马逊也在研发

Amazon's also working

眼镜。没错。科技界是否所有产品服务最终都会汇聚到这个尚未命名的、内置智能助手的统一接口？

on glasses. Yep. Is the Is the tech is world just are all tech products and services just converging to this eventual yet to be named singular interface with Assistant Inside?

这让我想起文章里的一个分论点：虽然我刚说了无屏设备的弊端，但OpenAI至少尝试走差异化路线确实很有意思。除非OpenAI或其他公司能证明这种模式成功，否则我不认为苹果会推出无屏AI设备。

That actually reminds me of one sub point of my piece, which was while I just said the negative side of the no screen thing, I do think it's interesting that OpenAI is trying to go down at least a little bit different of a path. Like you won't see presumably unless there's success from it from someone, be it OpenAI or someone else, I don't think you'll see Apple do, like, yeah, like a screenless AI device. I don't think you'll see

除了眼镜。他们可以做不带屏幕的眼镜。

Except for the glasses. They could do the glasses with no screen.

确实如此。听起来第一版会是这样的。但我指的是，像是某种辅助硬件设备。对，就像传闻中OpenAI正在研发的那种东西。

That's true. And it sounds like the first version will be. But I I mean, like, a sort of a secondary piece of hardware. Yeah. Like, exactly what is rumored to be, what OpenAI is working on.

感觉除了那些初创公司外，目前只有他们在走这条路。你可能会提到Alexa——我又得触发它了——某种程度上也算类似。但它显然是需要插电使用的，不能随身携带。

It feels like they're the only ones besides those startups, as we mentioned, that are going down that path at least right now. Now you could say Alexa I got to trigger it again. Is sort of like that in a way. Right? But it's obviously meant for to be plugged in and you don't take it with you.

但我认为你是对的。显然所有人都在向这些相同理念靠拢，包括我们提到的那些初创公司。问题的答案在于，尽管AI热潮不断，大家都在试图弄清楚下一代设备究竟是什么。虽然我们都坚信技术前景，但对商业模式仍存疑。归根结底，人们寻找下一代设备是希望它能成为下一个像iPhone那样的巨型平台。

But I think you're right. Obviously, everyone is sort of coalescing around these same ideas, including the startups all working on the things that we noted. And the answer to that is like, I just think everyone is still trying to figure out like what the next device is despite all of the AI hype and everything that we've been talking about. And obviously everyone, we're real believers in it, we're unsure about the financing models for it, but everyone believes in the technology angle of it. But it's still at the end of the day, people are looking for the next device because they think that this can be the next thing that becomes like the massive platform in the next iPhone.

对吧？而我持更保守的观点：很难再有设备能达到iPhone的规模。相反，未来会是多种设备的组合——包括眼镜、智能手机、可能还有随身聊天别针、桌面设备等等。企业们只是觉得必须布局这些领域。你提到亚马逊，据报道他们确实有眼镜项目，还聘请了多年未闻的微软前高管Jay Allard来研发AI设备相关的新构想。

Right? And I'm still of the mindset that's a more boring mindset that's like nothing's ever gonna be the scale again of of what the iPhone achieved. And instead, it's gonna be all of these devices, a bunch of different devices, including glasses, including your smartphone, and maybe, you know, potentially including a chat, pin, walk around thing, desktop device, whatever it is, and and several other things, you know, along those lines. So, yeah, I think that they all just feel like they need to have these initiatives. You mentioned Amazon because they, as you noted, sounds like per reporting, do have a glasses project as well, but they hired Jay Allard, which was a name I hadn't heard in years and years out of Microsoft to work on these new some sort of new ideas around devices and AI and whatnot.

没错。这里插播下期预告：Panos Penet将做客节目。我在纽约亚马逊设备发布会后采访了他，我们会聊到他们那个探索AI设备未来的实验室。

Yep. So they do have so here's a plug for an upcoming episode. Panos Penet is gonna come on. I just recorded with him in New York following the Amazon devices event. And we do talk about that workshop that they have where they're trying to figure out the future of the new AI device.

当时有个有趣的互动挺好玩——我问'你觉得吊坠设备怎么样'，他反应特别大：'哇，你这思维跳得够远啊！吊坠？认真的吗？'

And, we had a really interesting interaction. It's kinda fun where I said, well, what do you think about pendants? He goes, oh, really trying to go all over the place here. And he goes, pendants? You know?

总之，我建议大家关注这件事，因为他们似乎至少考虑推出那款吊坠。但你知道有趣的是什么吗？那就是这些公司的设计理念。比如你在文章中提到亚马逊说，'让我们赶紧发布吧'，在看到苹果没有发布或未充分推出Apple Intelligence后，他们迅速推出了Alexa Plus，结果因此备受批评。

So, anyway, I encourage people to tune into that because, it does seem like they're at least considering a pendant there. But you know what's gonna be interesting? It's gonna be the design philosophy of all these companies. Like, you wrote in a post about how Amazon said, let's just get it out. Let's get Alexa Plus out there after they saw that Apple, you know, didn't release or or get as much of Apple intelligence out out there and they got killed for it.

对。实际上我想最后谈几点。首先...不，其次在我们结束前，我想听听你对VisionPro的看法。是的。我们在节目里多次提到苹果已经降低了它的优先级，所以至少该花点时间讨论这意味着什么。

Right. I I'll actually I I wanna end with a couple of things. First of wanna get your take on well, second of all, I wanna get your take on the VisionPro before we leave because Yeah. We've said it a couple times a couple times on the show that Apple has deprioritized that, so we should at least take a moment to talk about what that means. Yeah.

但在此之前，看到Meta推动苹果朝这些方向发展非常有趣。所以我很好奇你的观点——在我看来这简直是血仇（或许这个词太重了）——关于Meta与苹果产品大战的现状，以及你认为这两家公司的产品理念在推进AI设备时将如何成为优势或劣势。

But before that, it's just very interesting to see Meta pushing Apple in these directions. And so I'd be curious to hear your perspective on, like, where the you know, it's really a blood feud in my perspective. Maybe that's too strong of a term, but where the Meta versus Apple product war stands and how you think each one of those companies' product philosophy will be an advantage or a disadvantage as they move forward trying to ship these AI devices.

是的。关于这个问题我写过很多次，最早可追溯到几年前。基本上，当苹果试图摧毁Meta的广告业务时，那感觉就像一场真正的冷战（甚至可以说是热战）的开始。对Meta来说，扎克伯格多次公开表示——甚至在乔·罗根的播客上——他们处境极其糟糕，因为在智能手机需求方面受制于苹果，其次是谷歌。这已不仅仅是应用分发的问题了。

Yes. So I've written about this a number of times dating back a few years now. Basically, you know, once Apple tried to destroy Meta's advertising business, it felt like that was the kickoff of a real cold, you know, not even cold war, a hot war in many ways that's been happening. I think at the highest level for Meta, you know, Zuckerberg has said it multiple times from on Joe Rogan's podcast, no less, like talking about how they feel like they're in a just terrible position because they're beholden to Apple and to a lesser extent Google in terms of the smartphone needs for their products. And it's not just for distribution of their apps anymore.

现在连他们的眼镜产品也面临同样困境——由于不是第一方硬件，他们无法获得像Apple Watch那样的连接水平，也无法像苹果那样通过低功耗蓝牙等方式深度接入iPhone。因此Meta一直在尝试各种方法，希望能创造出取代智能手机的下一代计算设备。扎克伯格对此也毫不讳言。虽然正如我们刚才讨论的，我非常怀疑任何产品能达到那样的规模，但必须承认Meta坚持投入的做法值得敬佩。

It's now for things like their glasses where they feel like they can't have the same level of connectivity that like an Apple Watch does because they're not first party hardware, you know, and they can't tap into the iPhone the same way that Apple itself can with low level Bluetooth and all these other things that they use for connections. And so I think that Meta has been trying basically anything to make something that could again replace that smartphone as the next computing device. And again, Zuckerberg has not been shy about talking about that. I'm super skeptical as we just talked about that anything will ever get to that scale. But I do think that Meta has done a good job and an admirable job by the way of sticking with Right?

很多公司——比如众所周知的谷歌，无论是Google Glass还是他们的VR项目——都是浅尝辄止。某种程度上这无可厚非。但这些新潮设备给人的感觉是，除非有人持续投入数十亿资金等待天时地利，否则永远无法成功。这类产品的成败很大程度上取决于时机，就像世界上很多事情一样。

Like lots of companies famously Google, you know, with Google Glass and their own VR efforts, like they just do something and then when it's not working, they back away. And, you know, there's something to be said for that too. But a lot of these new fangled devices, it just feels like they will never work unless someone just continually pumps in the billions required to sort of be in the right place, right time. Right? So much of this is based around timing as it's so many things in in the world.

我认为很多设备之所以失败，就是因为没等到合适的时机，而人们在天时到来前就放弃了——毕竟市场时机无法预测。虽然你可以竭尽全力创造有利条件，但Meta值得称赞的是，他们已投入近千亿美元在Quest头显、智能眼镜项目以及正在研发的AR眼镜上。

And I just feel like a lot of these devices have never worked because they're not right place, right time, and people give up before they would ever be in the right place because you can't really time the markets. Right? You can't know that it's going to be the right time for it. You can, you know, do as much as you can to try to make it the right time for you. But but again, Meta to their credit support almost maybe a $100,000,000,000 now into their efforts, you know, in terms of the Quest headsets, but now also with the glasses and and all the other projects and the AR glasses that they're working on.

所以还是要称赞他们仍在尝试。不过我对他们能达到的规模仍持保留态度，也不确定他们能否彻底摆脱对苹果或谷歌的依赖。感觉至少还需要很长时间才能实现那部分突破。我还没用过新款眼镜。

So credit to them for for still trying to do it. I'm still a little bit skeptical about what scale they can get to with that. And if they can ever fully truly break, yeah, the the need to be paired up quite literally with Apple and or Google. And it feels like it's gonna be a long time at the very least until they can get to the that's what that part. I haven't used the new glasses yet.

好奇你是否用过，但听起来技术确实令人印象深刻，不过似乎还不足以让人们在未来五到十年内放弃智能手机。确实如此。

Curious if you have, but, like, you know, they're it sounds like they're impressive. It sounds like the technology is is impressive, but it also doesn't sound like the type of thing that's you know, people are gonna leave their smartphones behind anytime in the next five to ten years. Yeah.

我也还没用过，但我想提你最近文章里提到的一个细节——依视路陆逊梯卡最初拒绝将最新一代产品命名为雷朋，因为觉得太笨重。后来Meta砸了些钱，他们态度就突然转变了。

I I haven't used them yet, but I I actually wanna pick up on a on a item that you put in a recent post about it that, I think Exor Luxottica actually balked at the idea of naming the latest generation, Ray Bans because they were bulky, and then Meta sort of floated some money towards them and now all of a sudden

没错。这又是一家持有上市公司股份的科技公司。

Right. Again, another another tech company that owns an ownership stake in a in a public company.

正是。我认为这反映出Meta的优势在于没有历史包袱——不必维护数十年积累的设计传统来保持品牌调性。他们大可以说：'就算做成会说话的丑爆欧克利眼镜，只要有人买单我们就干'。

Exactly. And and so I think what I draw from that is what might be playing in Meta's benefit here is they don't have a standard. You know, they don't have to worry about decades of a design legacy that they have to uphold to make something feel meta ish. They're just like like, alright. If these are ugly as hell Oakley glasses that, you know, talk back to you and some people like them, let's just do it.

这种'广撒网'式的开发思路，与苹果'必须完美'的作风形成了鲜明对比，我觉得很有意思。

And that sort of, I guess, spaghetti at the wall type of, approach, I I think is a very interesting contrast to the it has to be perfect way that Apple is developing things.

是啊。顺着这个思路，我认为他们最明智的决定就是与依视路陆逊梯卡合作。因为苹果除了技术实力，最大的优势就是遍布全球的零售渠道——新产品能迅速铺货到几乎每个国家（除了俄罗斯等少数地区）。而Meta只有零星几家门店。

Yeah. And one riff off of that idea is I do think the smartest thing that they did was partner with ExerLuxotica because the the biggest strength that Apple obviously has beyond all their in house expertise is also the retail channels. Right? Like they can move product because they have stores around the world and they can ship something and it be in every single country basically around the world aside from, I guess, Russia and maybe a few other places. But Meta has one store or a couple stores.

对吧？就连谷歌也只有寥寥几家门店。基本上没有其他公司具备这种能力。所以Meta很聪明，不仅是眼镜设计本身很重要——当然这也关键，比如借助雷朋品牌的影响力——更重要的是通过这种合作获得的零售渠道资源是极为明智的决策。我在思考苹果如何布局智能眼镜时，一直在琢磨这个问题。

Right? And even Google has just a few, a handful of stores. Like, no one else has that capability. So Meta smartly it's not just the design of the glasses, which obviously mattered too, like, you know, and getting to use the Ray Ban brand, but it's also the the foot the retail footprint that they can get from that partnership is was a hugely smart thing. And it's something that I've been wondering about when thinking through what what Apple does with smart glasses.

比如，他们是否也会寻求类似合作？倒不是出于分销需求，而是因为Meta某种程度上树立了新标准——你现在戴的是和普通太阳镜/眼镜同品牌的产品，只不过加入了科技元素。尽管苹果设计出众，但想想看：佩戴Apple Watch（设计精良但藏在袖口）和整天挂在脸上的设备完全是两码事。谷歌当年推出Google Glass时就迎面撞上了这个问题，字面意义上的'碰壁'。

Like, do they also do some sort of partnership there? Not because they need it from a distribution perspective, but more because, like, Meta has now set a standard in a way that, look, you're wearing the same brand that you wore for your regular sunglasses or your regular glasses, but now they have these tech enabled things. And Apple, as great as they are at design, do people you know, like there's the difference between wearing an Apple Watch, which is well designed and stuff, but it sort of resides under your shirt. And there's a very different thing between something that's right on your face all the time. And obviously Google ran into that headfirst, pun intended, with Google Glass.

我认为Meta是迫于形势才如此明智——他们必须把握住这次合作机会。那么苹果会怎么做？他们是否需要达成类似性质的合作协议？

And I think, Meta was very smart out of necessity. They had to be smart about that partnership. And so what does Apple do there with do they have to cut a deal to do a partnership in a similar vein?

好的，还剩几分钟。我们来给VisionPRO唱首安魂曲吧。我记得早年苹果曾对空间计算的未来许下宏愿——不是元宇宙。

Okay. A couple more minutes left. Let's just do the Requiem for the VisionPRO. I I remember back in the day hearing Apple make lofty promises about the future of spatial computing. Wasn't the metaverse.

是空间计算。没错，这是个宏大愿景。如今VisionPRO令人失望不说，似乎在苹果产品线中的地位也在下降。你最近的帖子里甚至暗示这可能是它的......

It was spatial computing. That's right. It's big vision. And now the VisionPRO has been a disappointment, but not only that, it seems like it's going to be deprioritized within Apple's suite of products. And you even suggest in one of your recent posts that this might be it for

是的。Gurman等消息人士说苹果仍在坚持，他们即将发布仅升级芯片的新版本。据说头带会稍作改良（现款确实不怎么样），但本质上只是芯片升级。

Yeah. And I you know, Gurman and others have said, like, look, they're still committed. They're obviously about to release a new version with just an upgraded chip. It's apparently gonna have a slightly better headband, which is nice because the current one is not any good. But but beyond that, it will just be a chip upgrade.

你提到的关键是，他们至少会暂缓开发Vision Air或非Pro版——也就是更轻薄、可能更便宜的普及型号。苹果可能评估市场后认为：VisionPRO的现状显然不符合预期。但即便推出售价千美元的'Vision Air'，你觉得能成为爆款吗？我认为不会。所以他们现在很务实。正如你所说，Meta已经展示了可预见的未来里，面部可穿戴设备的真实市场容量。

The one that you're talking about, of course, is that they're they're gonna at least put on the back burner the idea of a Vision Air or just the Vision without the Pro part of it, the slider the the smaller, lighter, and potentially less expensive, you know, version to actually scale this thing. And I think that they just probably looked at the market and said, like, obviously, where we're at right now with the VisionPRO is not where we wanna be. But even if they did a quote unquote vision or VisionAir and say it was like even a thousand dollars, do you think it's gonna be a massive scale, you know, hit device? I don't think that it And would so I think that they're being realistic about that. And as you're talking about, Meta showed them what the market is, at least for the foreseeable future in terms of a wearable on your face.

再者，其他人也曾尝试过。我们讨论过谷歌。当然，Snap凭借Spectacles早早入场，至今仍在努力。但Meta确实在某种程度上做到了极致，我认为，无论是从技术视角、易用性、合作角度，还是时机把握上。至于Vision Pro，当我们讨论它是否会有任何进展时，我认为短期内它不会有什么起色。

And again, others had tried. We talked about Google. Snap, of course, was an early mover with Spectacles and still trying it. But Meta really sort of nailed, I think, both sort of a technological perspective, ease of use, the partnership angle, and timing again. And I think the the for the Vision Pro, when we talk about does it ever ever go anywhere, I don't think that it's gonna go anywhere anytime soon.

所以，关键在于苹果是否能凭借类似智能眼镜及其下一代产品取得成功。如果他们真的将Vision Pro的概念搁置一旁，我也不会感到惊讶。它依然存在，就像一款遗留产品，被归入这个所谓的‘视觉’大伞下——‘这只是我们一直想做的产品的高端版本，我们正在多个方向上努力’。这很遗憾，因为我确实觉得他们在内容方面开始找到感觉，并且做得越来越好，但设备本身实在太笨重、太重了。

And so it's a matter of if Apple does hit with something like the smart pair of smart glasses and the next version of it, I wouldn't be shocked if they do just back burner the notion of the Vision Pro. It's still there. It's like a legacy product. It's all roped into this vision, quote unquote, vision umbrella of like, well, this is just the high end of what we always wanted to do and And we're working at it on multiple fronts. It's too bad because I do feel like they've started to come into their own with some of the content and they're getting better about it, but the device itself is just way too bulky, way too heavy.

使用它的一切都显得极不方便，而且他们完全错判了市场时机。显然，他们无法预见到AI会如此迅猛发展，但你知道，他们在这款产品上押注了一切，或许本不该如此。

Everything about it is just inconvenient to use, and it's just they timed the market completely wrong. And obviously, they couldn't have known AI was coming in as hot as it did, but, like, you know, they went all in on this product, and they probably shouldn't have done that.

我知道我们在开始这期节目时说过，过去一个月或三十天左右的时间里发生了太多疯狂的事。因此，很难全面捕捉所有动态。而且我认为这种情况会月复一月地持续，因为一切似乎都没有放缓的迹象。MG，能每月与你一起梳理这些真是太棒了。非常感谢你参加节目。

I know we said to start this episode that the past month or thirty days or whatever it's been has been crazy. And so, it's hard to possibly capture all the action that's happened. And and I I think that we'll we'll have the the same thing repeatedly month month on end because, none of this seems like it's slowing. And, MG is just great to be able to break it down with you, every month. So so thank you so much for coming on the show.

当然。一如既往地感谢你，Alex，一个月后见。看看那时会发生什么。

Of course. Thanks as always, Alex, and I'll see you in a month. See what's going

一个月后见。

See you in

一个月后。

a month.

各位，记得访问spyglass.org。你可以在那里注册MG的新闻通讯，像我一样成为专业订阅用户，获取额外的文章和深度分析，我强烈推荐。好了，周三如果一切按计划进行，Anthropic的首席产品官Mike Krueger将会做客节目，谈论公司的最新模型，并讨论我们从Sonnet 4.0迅速升级到4.5的现象，以及AI产品发布周期是否正在加速。再次感谢MG。

And folks, remember to check out spyglass.org. You can set up sign up for MG's newsletter there, become a pro subscriber like I am, and get the, added added articles and insights, which I highly recommend. Alright. On on Wednesday, Anthropic, chief product officer Mike Krueger is going to be on if all goes according to schedule, talk about the company's latest model and to and discuss the fact that we've gone from Sonnet four point o to 4.5 in a very short amount of time and whether the AI product release cycle is speeding up. Thanks again to MG.

感谢大家的收听，我们下次《大科技播客》再见。

Thank you all for listening, and we'll see you next time on big technology podcast.

现在到底发生了什么，为什么会这样？在《连线》，我们每天都痴迷于深挖这些问题，或许你也是。我是Katie Drummond，《连线》的全球编辑总监，正在主持我们的新播客系列《大访谈》。每周，我都会与那些塑造当下、最有趣、最具挑衅性和影响力的人物对谈。《大访谈》的对话充满乐趣

What the hell is going on right now, and why is it happening like this? At Wired, we're obsessed with getting to the bottom of those questions on a daily basis, and maybe you are too. I'm Katie Drummond, the global editorial director of Wired, and I'm hosting our new podcast series, the big interview. Each week, I'll sit down with some of the most interesting, provocative, and influential people who are shaping our right now. Big interview conversations are fun

我想要一条鲨鱼

I want a shark

能吞噬整个互联网，将其全部关闭。毫无过滤，无所畏惧。

that eats the Internet that turns it all off. Unfiltered and unafraid.

所以在很多方面，我尽力成为你在网上看到的那种难以想象的反应性内容洪流的解药。

So in a lot of ways, I try to be an antidote to the unimaginable faucet of reactionary content that you see online to the best of my ability.

每周，我们将为你提供这个时代最奢侈的东西——意义与语境。真假题：你，Brian Johnson，坐在我对面的这个男人，某天，在未来的某个尚未定义的时刻，你会死去。假。详细说说。

Every week, we're going to offer you the ultimate luxury of our times, meaning and context. True or false? You, Brian Johnson, the man sitting across from me, one day, at some point, as of yet undefined in the future, you will die. False. Tell me more.

立即收听重磅访谈，就在你发现《连线》杂志诡异谷播客的同一平台。无论你在哪里获取播客，请订阅或关注。

Listen to the big interview right now in the same place you find Wired's uncanny valley podcast. Subscribe or follow wherever you get your podcasts.