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Anthropic 看起来势不可挡，100亿美元的融资轮次竟扩大到了20倍。
Anthropic looks unstoppable as a $10,000,000,000 funding round turns into 20.
大型科技公司的财报已经公布，容错空间为零。
Big tech earnings are in, and there's no margin for error.
SpaceX 已公布上市日期，并可能收购 xAI 两家公司？
And SpaceX has an IPO date and is maybe acquiring x AI two?
这些内容将在本节目之后，周五的大型科技播客中为您呈现。
That's coming up on a big technology podcast Friday edition right after this.
本集节目由高通公司赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Qualcomm.
高通正在将智能计算带到每一个角落。
Qualcomm is bringing intelligent computing everywhere.
在每一个技术转折点上，高通都作为值得信赖的合作伙伴，帮助世界应对最重要的挑战。
At every technological inflection point, Qualcomm has been a trusted partner helping the world tackle its most important challenges.
高通领先的AI技术、高性能低功耗计算以及无与伦比的连接解决方案，具备构建新生态系统、变革产业并改善我们体验世界方式的强大能力。
Qualcomm's leading edge AI, high performance, low power computing, and unrivaled connectivity solutions have the power to build new ecosystems, transform industries, and improve the way we all experience the world.
AI最有价值的应用是否在工业领域？
Can AI's most valuable use be in the industrial setting?
在参观了IFS在纽约市举办的Industrial X Unleashed活动，并与IFS首席执行官马克·穆菲特交谈后，我越来越频繁地思考这个问题。
I've been thinking about this question more and more after visiting IFS' Industrial X Unleashed event in New York City and getting a chance to speak with IFS CEO, Mark Muffett.
举个明确的例子，穆菲特告诉我，IFS正在派遣波士顿动力的Spot机器人进行巡检，将数据带回IFS的神经中枢，再借助大型语言模型，为需要处理的区域指派合适的技术人员。
To give a clear example, Muffett told me that IFS is sending Boston Dynamics spot robots out for inspection, bringing that data back to the IFS nerve center, which then with assistance of large language models can assign the right technician to examine areas that need attending.
这是技术领域一个令人着迷的前沿方向，我很感谢IFS的合作伙伴让我看到了这一点。
It's a fascinating frontier of the technology, and I'm thankful to my partners at IFS for opening my eyes to it.
如需了解更多，请访问ifs.com。
To learn more, go to ifs.com.
网址是ifs.com。
That's ifs.com.
欢迎收看Big Technology播客周五版，我们将以一贯冷静而细致的方式解析新闻。
Welcome to Big Technology podcast Friday edition where we break down the news in our traditional cool headed and nuanced format.
今天为大家准备了一场精彩的节目。
We have a great show for you today.
我们将讨论Anthropic和OpenAI在寻求最新一轮融资时，其资金数额变得更大的情况。
We're gonna talk about the numbers getting even bigger for Anthropic and OpenAI as they attempt to raise their latest funding rounds.
我们还将审视科技巨头的财报，探讨如今是否还容得下任何失误，尤其是微软经历了数年来最糟糕的一天。
We're also gonna look at big tech earnings and ask whether there's any room for error anymore, especially with Microsoft having one of its worst days in years.
最后，在节目结束前，我们将讨论SpaceX，看看今年是否会进行IPO，以及是否会包含xAI。
And then as we close, we'll talk about SpaceX and whether that IPO is gonna come this year and whether it will include x AI.
这将是一期精彩的节目。
It's gonna be a great show.
今天加入我们的是《金融时报》旧金山分局首席记者史蒂文·莫里斯。
And joining us today is San Francisco bureau chief of the Financial Times, Steven Morris.
史蒂文，很高兴再次见到你。
Steven, great to see you again.
欢迎。
Welcome.
是的。
Yeah.
很高兴再次回来。
Great to be back on.
谢谢。
Thank you.
好的。
Okay.
那我们先从不是大科技的领域开始。
So let's start with the big tech not the big tech.
我们先从AI实验室说起。
Let's start with the AI labs.
上周我们讨论了OpenAI正在进行的这场历史性融资，以及在那之后是否还有资金剩余，或者他们到底能筹集多少资金。
Last week, we talked about how OpenAI was in the middle of this historic fundraise and whether there would still be money left or how much money could they possibly raise after this.
最新消息显示，Anthropic也正在走上融资之路。
Well, news showed up that Anthropic is actually also on the fundraising path.
这些公司似乎总是在融资，他们原本计划进行100亿美元的融资，结果最终将融资规模翻倍至200亿美元。
It is like these companies are always fundraising, and, they were actually going out for a $10,000,000,000 round, and then they ended up raising or or doubling that round to 20,000,000,000.
这是《金融时报》的报道。
Here's here's the Financial Times story.
Anthropic 计划从风险投资家和其他投资者那里筹集约200亿美元，是其最初目标的两倍，这表明投资者对这家知名人工智能初创公司的热情正在飙升。
Anthropic is set to raise about $20,000,000,000 from venture capitalists and other investors, double the amount and had targeted, and a sign of surging investor enthusiasm for the high profile AI startup.
这笔融资交易即将完成，将使该公司的估值达到3500亿美元。
The fundraising deal, is close to being finalized, would value the company at $350,000,000,000.
虽然略低于OpenAI的一半，但Anthropic显然正处于巅峰时刻。
So a little less than half than OpenAI, but Anthropic is clearly having a moment.
我很想听听你的看法，尤其是因为《金融时报》已经就投资者对Anthropic的强烈兴趣进行了报道，你认为这背后的原因是什么？
So I'd love to hear your perspective, especially since the Feet has done the reporting here about just how intense the interest has been in anthropic and why you think that's the case.
正如你所说，达里奥·阿马德及其妹妹，整个公司，现在在人工智能领域正迎来高光时刻。
Well, as you say, like Dario Amadev, his sister, the whole company, they're really having a moment in AI.
你知道，人们一直对Claude非常忠诚。
You know, people have always been very loyal to Claude.
他们喜欢Claude的风格，而且这家人工智能研究初创公司已经推出了多个爆款产品，尤其是Claude Code和Claude Workspace。
You know, they've liked its style, but it's had multiple hit products coming out of this AI research startup, not least Claude Code, Claude Workspace.
因此，我们看到全球各地各类投资者都对与这家公司建立联系表现出巨大需求。
And as a result, we're really seeing a huge amount of demand from investors of all stripes all around the world to be associated with this company.
正如你提到的，我们本周发布了一篇报道，称他们将融资规模翻倍——最初计划筹集100亿美元，现在实际将筹集约200亿美元，而且市场需求高达5到6倍，这是一笔惊人的资金。
As you mentioned, we put out a story this week that they've doubled their latest funding round, they initially went out to raise 10,000,000,000, they're actually going to raise around 20, and they had demand for five to six times that amount, which is a crazy amount of money.
对吧？
Right?
因为这仅仅是硅谷当前正在融资的众多AI初创公司之一，尤其是xAI和OpenAI也是如此。
Because this is just one of multiple AI startups in Silicon Valley raising at the moment, not least x AI and OpenAI as well.
我认为这证明了，3500亿美元的估值虽然低于埃隆·马斯克的xAI（2500亿美元），但正如你所说，仍远低于传闻中OpenAI的7500亿美元估值。
And I think what this proves, like, 350,000,000,000 valuations, of course, above Elon Musk's x AI at $2.50, but as you said, like, far below the rumored 750,000,000,000 valuation of OpenAI.
但它确实表明，Anthropic至少在融资和算力竞争方面，能够跟上规模稍大的竞争对手的步伐。
But it really shows that they're able to keep pace, at least in fundraising and compete on compute with their slightly larger peers.
现在的情况是，人们都希望与这个名字挂钩。
And we're in a situation now where people want to be associated with the name.
当我们报道这些新闻时，发现要为他们的投资方名单增加更多风险投资机构和主权财富基金的名字非常容易。
Like when we're reporting out these stories, we're finding it quite easy to add extra names to the list of VC and sovereign wealth fund backers.
有趣的是，我们甚至看到一些最初押注于微软和英伟达等竞争对手的公司，也开始向Anthropic投资。
And interestingly as well, we're even seeing companies that initially bet on their rivals like Microsoft and NVIDIA putting money into Anthropic as well.
这在一定程度上是出于自身利益，毕竟它们是Anthropic的大客户。
Now that's partly, you know, for self interest, you know, they're big customers.
但更重要的是，我认为这些大型科技公司——至少在我与它们交流时——认为这对整个生态系统有利。
But it's also because I think these these big tech companies, at least when I speak to them, they think it's good for the ecosystem.
你不可能只让一两家公司，比如埃隆·马斯克、谷歌和OpenAI，独占全部市场。
You don't just wanna have one, two or three companies, you know, Elon Musk, Google, and OP and I taking it all.
拥有Anthropic对整个行业乃至全世界来说，都是一个非常好的缓冲。
Having Anthropic is a very good buffer, you know, for the whole sector and and the whole world.
现在，达里奥在公开演讲时总喜欢说，Anthropic的收入从一百万，是多少来着？
Now, Dario, when he goes and gives his public talks, he likes to say, he always says this that that, Anthropic went from a million what?
不对。
No.
从一千万增长到了一亿美元。
10,000,000 to a 100,000,000 in revenue.
不。
No.
他们是从一亿美元增长到十亿美元，去年又从十亿美元增长到一百亿美元。
They went from, sorry, a 100,000,000 to a billion and a billion last year to 10,000,000,000.
所以他们的收入每年都增长了十倍。
So they've 10 x their their revenue year after year.
你觉得，从指数增长的角度来看，他们还能再做到一次吗？
Do you think I mean, how thinking through the exponential, do you think that they could do that again?
我的意思是，我觉得他们去年已经接近一百亿美元了。
I mean, I think they got close to 10,000,000,000 last year.
他们并没有完全实现十倍增长，但已经很接近了。
They didn't quite 10 x, but they got close.
你觉得他们能达到一千亿美元的水平吗？
Do you think they could get in the range of a 100,000,000,000?
因为当这些数字变得越来越大时，再实现十倍增长就变得更加困难了。
Because as these numbers get bigger, the task to 10 x becomes harder.
这可不是一件容易的事。
It's not like an easy thing to do.
他们无疑正走在通往目标的正确道路上。
They're certainly on the right track to get there.
你知道，他们吸引了大量的关注。
You know, they they've got a lot of interest.
他们已经深入渗透到许多大型企业中，同时也拥有大量忠实的粉丝，尤其是在开发者社区和个体用户中。
They've embedded themselves in both very big corporations, but they also have, like, a, you know, dedicated fans in, you know, the developer community and, like, individuals.
所以，如果你想想现在一些大型科技公司的收入，你知道，谷歌的季度净利润离这个数字已经不远了，甚至可能只用一半的时间就达到了。
So if you think about the revenues of some of the big tech companies now, you know, Google's not far off generating that much net profit in half of that in a quarter.
对吧？
Right?
所以，如果你认为OpenAI和Anthropic是下一个‘七巨头’或‘九巨头’的成员，那么他们达到每年一千亿美元的收入并非没有可能。
So if you believe that OpenAI and Anthropic are the next, you know, the next members of the magnificent seven or the magnificent nine, there's no reason why they can't get to a 100,000,000,000 in annual revenue.
当然，要让这些公司长期存活，他们的成本必须降低，因为别忘了，这些初创公司目前实际上还没有盈利。
Now, of course, what has to happen for them to be viable companies long term is that their costs have to come down because remember, these startups don't actually make any money at the moment.
如果它们今年或明年要上市，并且正在聘请顾问、银行家和律师来操办此事，那么最终它们的整个资产负债表都将公之于众，人们就能更深入地审视它们的运营状况，判断这些公司是否具备长期生存能力。
And if they are going to go for IPOs this year or next, and they're hiring advisors, bankers and lawyers to do so, eventually, the whole of their balance sheet will be laid bare and people will be able to take a better look under the hood and determine whether they're viable long term businesses.
但毫无疑问，Anthropic 正在采取正确的方式 securing 其资金，比如长期锁定更多战略合作伙伴。
But certainly, Anthropic is going about things in the right way to secure its funding, like lock in lock in more strategic partners long term.
所以，是的，我的意思是，我认为这是可行的，但请记住，这些公司真正进入公众视野并引起关注才不过两年时间。
So, yeah, I mean, I think it's feasible, but, you know, this is remember, these companies have really only been in the public sphere and have captured the imagination for two years.
因此，我们其实还没有足够的数据来观察这一趋势的发展轨迹。
So we just don't really have that much data to see the trajectory of this.
没错，当你说到它们不赚钱时，不只是不盈利，这些公司实际上正在亏损。
Right, and when you say they don't make any money, they're not just not making profit, Like, these companies are losing a
亏很多钱。
lot money.
赚钱。
Make money.
它们确实有收入。
They generate revenue.
他们缺乏的是盈利。
What they don't have is earnings.
没错。
Correct.
还有另一件事让我对这个故事印象深刻。
And one more thing that really struck me about this story.
我的意思是，当然，正如你提到的，Claude Cowork 和 Claude Code 确实推动了投资者关注的焦点——也就是 X 平台上的讨论。
I mean, of course, we know that, like, as you mentioned, Claude Cowork, Claude Code are really driving, you know, at least the conversation that these investors pay attention to nuts, which is really the the conversation on x.
对吧？
Right?
问题是，基于这种热度，你会拉拢哪些人呢？
And the question is, like, who does that who who would you sort of rope in because of that buzz?
你可能会以为，如此超额认购的融资轮次，传统上那些推特上的风投会进来，但事实并非如此。
And you would think that if you have such an oversubscribed rounds, it's like the traditional, Twitter VCs, that would come in, but it's not.
我的意思是，也许部分原因确实如此。
I mean, maybe it's some of that.
但真正让我感到惊讶的是，根据你的说法，微软和英伟达已承诺向该公司投资总计高达150亿美元。
But the thing that really struck me is that it looks like Microsoft and NVIDIA, this is according to your story, have committed to invest a total of up to 15,000,000,000 in the company.
你知道，这可不是谷歌。
You know, that's not Google.
这也不是亚马逊。
That's not Amazon.
这是微软和英伟达。
It's Microsoft and NVIDIA.
对我来说，当人们谈论OpenAI生态时，通常会提到三家公司。
To me, that's you know, people usually when they talk about the OpenAI universe, they talk about three companies.
他们提到微软。
They talk about Microsoft.
他们提到英伟达，还有甲骨文。
They talk about NVIDIA, and they talk about Oracle.
现在看来，Anthropic似乎吸引了一些OpenAI最大的支持者，这很有趣，因为我想你记得，在最近一轮融资中，萨姆·阿尔特曼曾表示，如果你投资了我们的任何竞争对手，就无法参与未来的融资轮次。
And now Anthropic seems like it's attracted some of the biggest backers of OpenAI, which is interesting because I think you'll remember that the rumor was in the latest funding round, Sam Altman was saying, if you invest in any of our competitors, you're not gonna be able to participate in future rounds.
而现在显然，也许英伟达和微软获得了豁免，或者因为它们的规模根本不需要豁免，但它们如此强势地投资Anthropic，这一点让我感到非同寻常。
And now clearly, maybe maybe NVIDIA and Microsoft got a waiver or maybe they don't need one because of their size, But the fact that they're gonna come in with such power and back anthropic to me is remarkable.
是的。
Yeah.
过去十二个月里，整个格局的变化真是非同寻常。
It's it's extraordinary the way that the landscape has changed over the last twelve months.
我们曾在《金融时报》上写过一篇关于萨姆·阿尔特曼威胁要切断投资竞争对手的投资者关系的文章，结果最终演变成埃隆·马斯克以反竞争行为为由对该公司提起的诉讼。
A story we wrote at the Financial Times about Sam Altman threatening to cut off investors that invested in rivals actually ended up in a lawsuit that Elon Musk brought against the company for anti competitive practices.
现在，萨姆·阿尔特曼表示，他并没有说会把你排除在融资轮之外。
Now Sam Altman said that he didn't say he'll cut you out of the funding round.
他只是说，我们不会与你分享任何关于财务状况的高级数据，也不会向你提供我们的技术路线图，以防你把这些信息透露给我们的竞争对手。
He just said we won't share any advanced data on our financials or or give you our our tech road map in case you share it with our rivals.
但看起来，自从微软重新谈判了与OpenAI的关系后，所有这些排他性条款都在瓦解。
But it looks like since Microsoft renegotiated its relationship with OpenAI that all of this exclusivity is breaking down.
请记住，亚马逊和谷歌与Anthropic有着最长久的云服务和投资合作关系。
Remember, Amazon and Google have had the longest standing cloud and investing partnerships with Anthropic.
他们现在将微软Azure加入了这个组合。
They're now adding Microsoft Azure to that mix.
他们也与甲骨文合作。
They also do work with Oracle.
因此，我们正看到整个行业日益多元化并更加紧密地交织在一起，目前的主流观点认为，这些模型不会全部商品化并趋同于同一种东西，而是会走向专业化，各自擅长不同的领域。
So we're really seeing the whole sector diversify and become more strongly intertwined as the prevailing thought is now that these models aren't all just going to commoditize and converge on the same thing, but they're going to specialize and they're going to be good for different things.
而Anthropic真正展示出的优势是，它对开发者和企业都非常出色。
And what Anthropic has really been able to show is it's very good for developers and it's very good for enterprises.
我的意思是，它可能已经输掉了面向消费者的应用大战，因为OpenAI和谷歌已经取得了一些小进展，但对一家如此规模的公司来说，这并不算什么。
I mean, it's probably already lost the kind of consumer app battle to OpenAI with Google, making some small inroads in that, but not really for a company of its size.
但在旧金山，我敢肯定你在圈子里经常听到——如果你关注一个叫‘Overheard San Francisco’的账号，就会知道现在流传着一个笑话。
But in San Francisco, I'm sure you hear it in the bubble chamber, you know, if you follow an account called Overheard San Francisco, there's a joke going around.
有个人走在街上说：‘罗马不是一天建成的。’
It's like one person walking down the street says, oh, you know, Rome wasn't built in a day.
另一个人立刻回击：‘哦，但他们那时候可没有Clock代码。'
And the other person shoots back and says, oh, well, they didn't have Clock code.
是的
Yeah.
不
No.
它确实在数据中体现出来了，因为我正在查看一些来自Apptopia的数据。
It it definitely shows up in the data, because I have some data from Apptopia that I'm looking at right now.
在2025年6月，也就是六七个月前，Claude移动应用的平均使用时长约为十分钟。
And in June, 2025, so six, seven months ago, the average time spent on the on the mobile app of Claude was about ten minutes.
今天，也就是1月26日，已经超过了三十分钟。
Today, in January 26, it's above thirty minutes.
因此，在六个月内，Anthropic的Claude应用的单用户使用时长翻了三倍。
So time spent per user on Anthropix Claude has tripled in six months.
对我来说，令人惊讶的是，这指的是移动应用。
And to me, what's remarkable about that is it's the mobile app.
对吧？
Right?
你会说，好吧。
And you would you would say, okay.
也许是因为这些开发者在Claude代码上花了大量时间，但我觉得那通常是桌面端的事。
Maybe it's because these developers are spending all this time, in, you know, Claude code, but that's off I think often that's desktop.
所以确实有某种情况在发生，我 definitely 看到过，我有过反复切换聊天机器人的时刻。
So the fact that there's there's something going on, I've definitely seen you know, I've had these moments where I've gone back and forth between chatbots.
比如，我和拉詹开玩笑说，我们曾经是Cloudheads，后来我们称自己为chat chaps，但我不确定我们是否真的需要这个称呼。
Like, I like, Ranjan and I, we joke that we used to be Cloudheads, and then we became I think we called it chat chaps, but I don't know if I think we need it.
对英国观众来说，这可能不太合适，但我认为我们需要一个更好的词。
There's not to your to the, you know, the the British audience, but I think we need a better
是的。
Yeah.
也许‘chat chaps’这个说法并不太适合经常说。
Maybe chat chaps isn't isn't something you wanna say too much.
不。
No.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，但我说的是，我现在又回到使用Claude来处理很多工作相关的事情了，看到这些数据我一点也不意外。
I mean But but I'm saying that, like, I've now gone back to to to Claude for a lot of my work related uses, and I'm seeing these numbers, I'm not surprised.
嗯。
Mhmm.
不。
No.
他们确实抓住了这个时机。
They they're definitely capitalizing on their moment.
而且，创始人达里奥·阿马德也很活跃，对吧？
And also, Dario Amade, the founder, he's very visible, right?
我不确定你有没有读完他上周发布的那篇两万字的文章。
I'm not sure if you managed to read all 20,000 words of his essay that he put out last week.
我认为使用Claude最好的方式之一就是把它放进去，帮我们提炼出最关键的几点。
I think a best good use of Claude would be to put it in there and crunch it down a little bit into the most salient bullet points.
但他还主动介入了当前AI领域的文化、社会和立法浪潮中，一方面作为顶尖初创公司的研究领导者，另一方面又警告称这项技术可能引发经济灾难，他认为未来两年内这项技术将真正带来变革。
But he's also asserted himself into kind of like the cultural, the social, the legislative moment here that we have for AI, being obviously leading research at one of the top startups, but also warning about a potential economic apocalypse, you know, dangers from unleashing this technology, which he believes will become truly transformational in the next two years.
所以他们在这方面也占了优势。
So they kind of have that going for them as well.
我们俩上周或前一周都去了达沃斯，当时这些公司之间互相攻击的言论层出不穷。
And we were both at Davos last week or the week before, and there was a lot of sniping going backwards and forwards between these these different companies.
我猜你肯定也注意到了。
I'm sure you picked it up.
你有听到谷歌的德莫斯·萨尔巴斯说，只要看看这些不同AI实验室推出的东西就知道了。
You had Demos Tsarbas of Google saying, oh, well, you only need to look at what's coming out of these different AI labs.
看看那些由科学家主导的实验室。
Look at what the ones run by scientists.
而他说这话时，实际上正和达里奥同台。
And by this, he was actually on stage with Dario at the time.
我以为是达里奥说的那番话
I thought Dario was the one that said that
科学家们接受了采访。
scientists were interviewed.
是达里奥说了那番话吗？
Was Dario that said that.
然后德米斯表示同意，接着他们说，看看那些由风投和社交媒体人士运营的公司所推出的产品——这明显是在影射Meta和OpenAI。
And then and then Demis kind of agreed, and then they said, look at what's coming out of these companies that are run by, like, VC and, like, social media people, like, a not too veiled shot at meta and OpenAI.
一周后，德米斯或谷歌忍不住对萨姆·阿尔特曼将应用整合进GPT的做法进行了反击。
Later in the week, Demis couldn't resist of Google couldn't resist having a shot at Sam Altman for putting apps in GPT.
他说：如果我们真的快接近AGI了，那么两年后金钱和股市都将变得无关紧要，那还为什么要广告呢？
He said, well, if we're so close to AGI, money and the stock markets will all become irrelevant in two years' time, so why do you even need adverts?
因此，随着在用户、资金和公众认知空间上的竞争加剧，这些极其富有但仍高度竞争的人之间，相互攻击的言论正不断飞来飞去。
So as the competition heats up for users and funding and kind of space in the public consciousness, are the barbs flying backwards and forwards between these very wealthy but still very competitive people.
对。
Right.
上周我们聊到，OpenAI正试图筹集500亿美元，当时的头条新闻是萨姆·阿尔特曼正在沙特阿拉伯和其他海湾国家为这笔融资奔走。
And so last week, we talked a little bit about how OpenAI was trying to raise 50,000,000,000, and the headline there was that Sam Altman was in Saudi Arabia and some other Gulf states trying to raise that round.
我当时简直举手投降，心想：他们还能这么搞多少次？
And I was basically raising my hands and being like, how how many more times can they do this?
但最终，他们还是得上市。
And then eventually, have to go public.
到那时，数字肯定就变得重要了，你想想看。
And then certainly, the numbers are gonna matter then, you would imagine.
结果发现，500亿美元根本不是他们的目标。
Well, it turns out that 50,000,000,000 wasn't the ambition.
看起来实际数额要大得多，因为本周后半段我们陆续看到消息，称OpenAI正寻求筹集比那多得多的资金。
It looks like it's actually much larger, because we've gotten a bunch of news in the back half of this week that OpenAI is looking to raise much more than that.
我先说说《华尔街日报》的报道，然后再讲《金融时报》的报道，因为后者是在我们对话前不久刚发布的。
I'll start with the Wall Street Journal report, then we'll move to the Feet report because this, came out, you know, shortly shortly before we're speaking.
这是这里的标题。
So here's this here's the headline.
亚马逊正在洽谈向OpenAI投资高达500亿美元。
It it is Amazon is in talks to invest up to 50,000,000,000 in OpenAI.
聊天机器人制造商正在寻求从投资者那里筹集高达1000亿美元的新资本，这可能使其估值高达8300亿美元。
The chat should be tea maker is seeking up to 100,000,000,000 in new capital from investors around that could value it as much as at as much as 830,000,000,000.
亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西正在与OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·阿尔特曼进行谈判。
Andy Jassy, Amazon's chief executive, is leading the negotiations with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
如果达成协议，这笔交易的结构仍可能发生变化。
The shape of the deal should one be reached could still change.
顺便说一下，如果你能为我们评论两件事的话。
By the way, so comment on two things for us if you could.
首先，这真是令人瞠目结舌的时刻。
First of all, like, it's a jaw dropping moment.
他们真的可能筹集到如此巨额的资金，这难道不令人震惊吗？
Is it not that they're actually going to potentially raise this amount of money?
直到几年前，历史上最大的风险投资轮次也不过是几十亿美元。
I think the largest VC round in history was a couple billion dollars up until a few years.
现在我们看到的是一笔1000亿美元的融资轮次。
Now we're looking at a 100,000,000,000 round.
再谈谈这些公司所围绕的轴心。
And then talking again about the the axis around these companies.
有趣的是，亚马逊长期以来一直是Anthropic的合作伙伴。
Now the funny thing, you know, Amazon has long been an Anthropic partner.
他们带人参观了自己新建的设施，那里配备了他们的训练芯片，声称正是与Anthropic的深度合作才让他们建成了这个数据中心。
They have, you know, marched marched people around their, you know, their new facility that they've built with their training chips, talking about how their, you know, deep partnership with Anthropic has been what's enabled them to build this data center.
而现在，他们却要向OpenAI投入一笔惊人的资金。
And now they're gonna go and put an absurd amount of money into OpenAI.
这会带来什么影响？
What are the implications?
正如我们所说，这个领域的相互联系正变得越来越混乱、交织在一起。
Well, as we're saying, the interconnections between the sector are becoming more and more confused, intertwined.
再也没有人寻求独家协议了。
Nobody is looking for exclusive agreements anymore.
微软已经与OpenAI分道扬镳，亚马逊似乎也即将与对Anthropic的纯粹支持划清界限。
Microsoft has broken with OpenAI, Amazon is seemingly on the break, seemingly about to break with its pure backing of anthropic.
500亿美元显然是一个惊人的数额。
50,000,000,000 is obviously an extraordinary amount of money.
当像亚马逊这样规模的公司投入如此巨额资金时，我不认为我们还能称之为风险投资交易。
I don't think we can call it a venture capital round anymore when you have a company as large as Amazon committing for that.
当然，和以往一样，面对这类数字，比如去年这个时候甲骨文和OpenAI宣布的5000亿美元Stargate项目，细节才是关键。
And of course, as always, with these figures, you know, such as the 500,000,000,000 Stargate project, which was announced this time last year by Oracle and OpenAI, the devil will be in the detail.
这些交易的许多结构方式实际上非常循环。
A lot of the way these deals are structured are actually very circular.
它们通常会以计算资源信用的形式出现。
You know, they will be in the form of compute credits.
亚马逊投入OpenAI的资金，最终会通过使用他们的AWS数据中心服务回流回来。
The money that Amazon is putting into OpenAir will come back for using their AWS data center services.
当这项融资的细节公布时——我相信很快就会公布——这些合同的具体条款将非常值得观察。
And it'll be interesting to see how when the details come out of this fundraising, which one imagines would be very soon exactly what the terms of these contracts are.
这不仅仅是亚马逊开出一张巨额支票那么简单。
It's not just Amazon writing a huge check.
我们听说微软将投入几十亿美元，但不会太多，因为他们已经拥有重组后公司27%的股份。
Microsoft is going to put a few billion in, we hear, but not too much more because obviously they already own 27% of the restructured company.
英伟达正在投入更多资金，同时日本大型财团软银也计划再开出300亿美元的支票来资助这一项目。
Nvidia are putting more money in, but also SoftBank, the big Japanese conglomerate, they're talking about writing another $30,000,000,000 check to finance this.
他们出售了大量英伟达的持股，并退出了其他几项交易。
They sold off a lot of their holdings of Nvidia, they pulled out of a few other deals.
尽管OpenAI可能失去了一些势头，也褪去了一些光环，你可能会听到更多关于Gemini或Claude的声音，但这一轮融资充分表明，他们依然能够与竞争对手抗衡，至少在融资方面超越了其他初创公司。
So whilst OpenAI must have has lost a little bit of its momentum, has lost a little bit of its sheen, you may be hearing a little bit more noise about Gemini or noise about Claude, this funding round really shows that they are still able to compete, outcompete their rivals, at least their startup rivals in fundraising.
如果未来模型的提升主要依靠增加计算资源，那么OpenAI依然遥遥领先。
And if this is gonna be a blunt force improvement of models by using more compute, OpenAI is very much still out in the lead.
但这为2026年和2027年埋下了非常有趣的伏笔，因为各方都在聘请顾问，达沃斯论坛上热议的正是那些银行家和律师，他们正积极争取主导这些交易——不仅限于他们，还包括埃隆·马斯克和SpaceX等公司。
But it sets up a really interesting 2026 and 2027 because they're all hiring advisers, you know, one of the talk of Davos were bankers and lawyers buzzing around trying to win lead roles on all of these deals, not just them, but also Elon Musk, companies like SpaceX.
最终，正如你所说，这些资金池终将耗尽。
And eventually, you're right, these pots of money will be tapped out.
投资者将达到集中度限制。
Investors will hit concentration limits.
主权财富基金可能会退缩。
Sovereign wealth funds may get cold feet.
可能会出现另一个深度寻求时刻，让所有人对闭源模型和开发速度感到些许恐慌。
There could be another deep seek moment where everyone gets slightly panicked about, you know, closed models and the rate of development.
但目前看来，一切都在全速前进。
But at the moment, it seems to be full steam ahead.
但在2027年，我不认为还会再出现如此规模的注资，除非你走向公开市场，让散户投资者和大型机构养老基金等获得参与机会，以资助他们对数据中心和推理的庞大野心。
But in 2027, I can't can't see the checks of these sizes being written again unless you go to the public markets and you start giving retail share your retail shareholders and big institutional pension funds, things like that access to try and finance, you know, their colossal ambitions for, like, data center and inference.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我查了历史上最大的IPO，为沙特阿拉伯筹集了300亿美元。
So I checked the largest IPO in history raised $30,000,000,000 for Saudi Arabia.
上周我说的是400亿美元。
Last week, I said 40,000,000,000.
实际上是300亿美元。
It's actually 30,000,000,000.
所以仅亚马逊一家的出资，可能是一笔支票，也可能是AWS信用额度，我们不清楚，但几乎达到了上一轮规模的两倍。
So the check from Amazon alone, maybe it's a check, maybe it's AWS credits, we don't know, but almost double the size of that round.
所以确实如此。
And so Exactly.
我的意思是，你觉得2027年就是终点吗？
I mean, so you think 2027 is where this ends?
因为我觉得世界上根本没那么多钱，对吧？来维持这个循环？
Because there's not I I just don't think there's enough money in the world, is there, to continue this cycle?
嗯，这个问题有两个方面。
There's well, there's two sides to it.
对吧？
Right?
私人资本或机构资本的数量是有限的。
There's there's a finite amount of private capital or institutional institutional.
所谓机构，指的是你能吸引来的大型科技公司的资金。
By institutional, I mean, like, you know, big tech money that you can attract in.
但公开市场的资金也是有限的。
But there's also a finite amount of money available on public markets.
正如你所指出的，历史上最大的IPO是沙特阿美，2019年融资约2900亿美元。
As you pointed out, the biggest IPO in history was Saudi Aramco, twenty nine point something billion in 2019.
如果Anthropic上市，它目前私人市场估值为350亿美元，或许在公开市场上乐观地翻倍到700亿美元。
If you have Anthropic coming to market, you have value at $3.50 privately, you know, maybe optimistically double that on the public markets.
你还有SpaceX，我们稍后会谈到，其估值可能达到1.5万亿美元。
You have SpaceX, which we'll talk about later, looking at a 1 to $1,500,000,000,000 valuation.
你还有OpenAI，估值也超过1万亿美元。
You have OpenAI looking at over 1,000,000,000,000 as well.
你还可以考虑其他公司，比如Databricks、Snowflake、Stripe，它们都可能选择在这个阶段上市。
You can throw other companies like Databricks, Snowflake, Stripe, all of them might choose to come to market in this portion.
全球公开市场有足够的资金来吸收所有这些吗？
Is there enough money in the public markets around the world to absorb all of this?
几周前我跟一位银行家聊过，他说：实际上，我不认为有。
A banker I was speaking to a few weeks ago was like, I actually don't think there is.
所以它们不可能同时上市，否则会相互牵制，影响各自的融资能力。
So they can't really all go at the same time because they risk kind of like hamstringing each other in their ability to fundraise.
因此，我认为这需要一定的节奏。
So I think there does have to be like a certain cadence to this.
而且，如果你跟OpenAI和Anthropic内部的人聊聊，这些公司都还非常年轻。
And also, if you talk to people inside OpenAI and Anthropic, these are still very young companies.
它们仍在完善自己的公司治理结构。
They're still sorting out their corporate governance structures.
特别是OpenAI，目前面临多起严重的诉讼，从埃隆·马斯克试图阻止其从非营利组织转型，到《纽约时报》起诉它们涉嫌版权盗用。
OpenAI in particular has a number of like pretty severe looking outstanding lawsuits from everything from Elon Musk trying to block their conversion away from a nonprofit to The New York Times suing them for like basically copyright theft.
在这些公司能够开展路演、展示稳健的财务数据，并真正说服人们它们会成为下一个谷歌或Meta之前，还有大量问题需要解决。
There's a lot to be ironed out before these companies can go on a roadshow, show some confident financials, and really persuade people that they are going to be the next Google or Meta.
是的。
Yeah.
在结束之前，我想谈一个应用，它可以说是这个领域炒作与潜力的典型代表，这周在我们的Discord频道里提到了。
And before we go, I just want to talk about one application that's sort of, I would say, emblematic of the hype and maybe potential in this space, and it came up in our Discord this week.
它以前被称为Claude Bot。
It's something that used to be called Claude Bot.
由于Anthropic给他们发了信，它不得不更改名称。
It had to change its name because Anthropic wrote them a letter.
但事情是这样的。
But here's the story.
Claude Bot是什么？为什么大家都对它如此着迷？
What is Claude Bot, and why is everybody so obsessed with it?
它是一个开源的、以聊天为核心的AI助手，可以连接到各种聊天应用，比如WhatsApp、Telegram、iMessage、Slack、Discord等。
It's an open source messaging first AI assistant that connect to chat apps can connect to chat apps like WhatsApp, Telegram, mess iMessage, Slack, Discord, etcetera.
它能记住上下文，发送主动提醒，并在运行它的机器上触发自动化。
Remember context over time, send proactive nudges, and trigger automation on a machine where it runs.
可以把Claude Bot看作一个通过消息与你互动的个人AI入口。
Think of Claude Bot as a personal AI gateway that you talk through, you talk to through messaging.
你可以像给同事发消息一样给它发信息，并在同一对话线程中收到回复。
You text it like a colleague, get replies in the same thread.
你的手机、笔记本电脑和平板电脑一整天都能保持同步，因为对话存在于消息层中，而该服务会连接到你的电脑，去使用它并为你完成任务。
Your phone and laptop and tablet all day stay in sync because the conversation lives in the messaging layer, then the service connects with your computer and can go and use it and accomplish tasks for you.
比如获取数据、生成摘要、运行例行程序以及自动化重复性工作。
Things like fetching data, generating summaries, running routines, and automating repetitive work.
过去一周，人们对Claude Bot简直着了魔。
People have gone absolutely nuts over Claude Bot this past week.
你对Claude Bot有什么看法？
What is your thought on Claude Bot?
它是真实的吗？它反映了我们所处时代的什么特征？
Is it real, and what do think it says about the moment we're in?
这表明，一位开发者在奥地利短短时间内，通过即兴编码就创造出一个非常有趣的应用，主要通过口碑和GitHub传播开来，展示了AI的实用性。
Well, it shows that, you know, a developer sat over in Austria in a very short period of time, vibe coding can come up with a really interesting app that gains traction largely through word-of-mouth and through GitHub GitHub and can, like, show that AI can be used.
完全没错，这完全是即兴编码的成果。
Totally this was totally vibe coded.
这就是他们
This is what they
这个
the
人说的。
person said.
他们甚至没有检查代码。
They didn't even check their code.
他们直接发布了，这让我觉得，如果代码没经过检查，我是不会让它使用我的机器的。
They just put it out there, which is I'm like, I'm not letting it use my machine if it's just if it hasn't the code hasn't been checked.
但它虽然是即兴编码的，却能如此迅速走红，确实有些了不起。
But the fact that it was vibe coded and is taking off like this is somewhat remarkable.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，这表明这个领域对于下一个杀手级应用或使用场景来说，仍然大有可为。
I mean, it just shows you that this the field is really wide open for, like, the next killer app or use case for this.
而且，尽管我认为AI实验室们正确地将重点放在了消费者用户身上——目前大多数用户只是用它来替代谷歌搜索。
And, you know, whilst I think quite rightly, all the AI labs are focusing on, you know, consumer users who are most of whom are just using this as a replacement for Google search at the moment.
对吧？
Right?
但还有那些用它来编程的高级用户，而真正的价值、粘性在于赢得与现有上市公司的长期合同，金额从一千万到一亿美元不等，你需要进入这些公司，替换掉他们已有的Workday或Salesforce等SaaS软件。
But also the power users who are using it to code, but the real money, like the stickiness is getting these big multi year 10 to $100,000,000 contracts with existing public companies, you have to go in there and like replace a lot of the SaaS software that they already have in there from Workday or Salesforce.
这目前是最大的机会。
That's like the biggest prize at the moment.
但这除了吸引那些寻找更高回报的投资者外，并不能引起其他人的兴趣。
But that doesn't really capture the imagination of anyone but an investor looking for better AIR.
如果你只是普通老百姓，你可能更感兴趣的是视频生成功能。
If you're just an ordinary person on the street, you're probably more interested in the video generation capabilities.
然后突然间，Claude Bot，或者叫什么来着？
And then suddenly Claude Bot or actually, what's it called?
现在叫Malt Bot？
Malt Bot now?
Anthropic发出的措辞强烈的声明显然产生了效果。
The the strongly worded message from from Anthropic clearly had its effect.
你知道，它突然就能发消息，人们愿意为此冒险，即使它的代码可能有点粗糙。
You know, that can come in and, like, suddenly send messages and and people are willing to take a gamble on it, even though it might have slightly janky code.
我觉得特别有趣的是，这些东西能突然冒出来，希望对那个家伙来说能成功，获得一些关注，而不是就这样消失或被大型实验室抄袭。
I just think it's really interesting that, you know, these things can come out of nowhere and hopefully for the guy it'll work out and, you know, he'll gain some traction rather than just kind of disappearing or be copied by the more major labs.
但这很有趣。
But it's fun.
对吧？
Right?
这恰恰说明你还没真正理解这项新技术的全貌。
It just shows you wouldn't really understand the the contours of this new technology yet.
是的。
Yeah.
人们 Definitely 在热烈讨论它，相关的梗也特别有意思。
People are definitely having a field day talking about it, and the memes are really interesting.
听说有人在 X 上说，凯文·朱说，我给了 Claude Bot 访问我投资组合的权限。
Think they're telling this one person on x Kevin Zhu said, I gave Claude Bot access to my portfolio.
他说，交易这个，把这个交易到一百万美元。
He said, trade this, trade this to 1,000,000.
别出任何差错。
Don't make any mistakes.
25种统计策略，3000份报告，12个新算法，扫描了所有展会，掌握了每一项技术，24小时不间断交易。
25 stat strategies, 3,000 reports, 12 new algorithms, and scanned every expos, chartered every technical, traded twenty four seven.
它亏光了所有钱，但真是太美了。
It lost everything, but, boy, it was beautiful.
我花了十五分钟用Claude Bot，帮我省下了15%的汽车保险费用。
I spent fifteen minutes on Claude Bot and saved me 15% on my car insurance.
这里有个关于GEICO的小笑话。
There's a little GEICO joke.
还有个人说，让Claude Bot每天给我妻子发早安和晚安消息。
This other person said, set up Claude Bot to text my wife good morning and good night every day.
也很随意。
Also casual.
工作日里发送问候消息怎么样？
How are you messages during the workday?
二十四小时不间断，它甚至在我不参与的情况下都能进行完整的对话。
Twenty four hours, it was having full on conversations without me even being involved.
这技术简直疯狂。
This is absolutely insane tech.
我至少两天没和我妻子说话了，但她似乎比以往任何时候都更开心。
I haven't talked to my wife for at least two days, and she seems happier than ever.
我的意思是，我觉得这些梗很有代表性，现在确实是一个非常有趣的时代。
I mean, I think that these memes are telling and that there is a it's a very interest very interesting moment.
人们有一种渴望，愿意信任这些应用程序，有时甚至超过他们自己意识到应该信任的程度。
There is a desire among people to tray to to trust these applications with sometimes even more than they even know they should.
是的。
Mhmm.
去玩一玩，试试看，找点乐子。
And just play around with it and experiment and have a bit of fun.
你知道的。
You know?
我不认为那些大型科技播客会建议任何人把关系完全外包给聊天机器人。
I don't think the the big technology podcast is advising that anyone outsource their relationship to a chatbot quite yet.
但你知道，
But, you know,
它或许能帮到你们中的一些人。
It maybe might it might help some of you.
是的。
Yeah.
它可能对那些不擅长发短信的人有帮助。
It might help some people who have bad texting form.
是的。
Yeah.
但你知道，如果它能自动化你日常中那些烦人的小事情，尤其是对我们这些有孩子和繁忙工作的人来说，节省下来的每一分钟都弥足珍贵。
But, you know, if it if it can automate those little annoying parts of your day, you know, that you that that that just like especially for those of us with, like, kids and busy jobs, you know, those those those precious those minutes saved can be very precious.
没错。
Exactly.
这周还发生了一件非常有趣的事，我想深入聊聊，那就是微软和Meta的盈利都超过了预期。
Well, another very interesting thing happened this week, and I wanna get into that in-depth, which is that Microsoft and Meta both beat earning expectations.
它们在利润上超预期了，但在收入上却低于预期。
They beat on profit, and they peed on beat on revenue.
Meta的股价飙升了两位数，而微软的股价却下跌了两位数。
Meta's stock shot up double digits, and Microsoft's dropped double digits.
我认为这非常能说明当今科技行业的现状。
And I think it is very telling in what it says about the state of technology today.
所以，我们稍后回来再详细讨论这个话题。
So we will talk about that when we come back right after this.
我们回来了，这里是《大科技播客》，今天我们邀请到《金融时报》旧金山分局首席记者史蒂文·莫里斯。
And we're back here on big technology podcast with Steven Morris, the San Francisco bureau chief at the Financial Times.
史蒂文，说实话，你选了个再好不过的时机来做客，因为我们正处在科技巨头财报季的高潮中。
Steven, you you couldn't have come on on a better week, to be honest, because we're in the thick of big tech earnings.
你知道，虽然这些财报通常是一个了解这些公司盈亏状况的好机会，但我们现在其实正见证一个相当有趣的故事在展开。
And, you know, while these earnings are typically, like, a good opportunity to check-in on profit and loss among these companies, we actually have, like, a pretty interesting story developing.
所以，正如我在广告前提到的，Meta实现了创纪录的销售额。
So as I mentioned before the break, Meta Meta had record sales.
增长了10%。
It jumped 10%.
微软在收入和盈利能力上也超出了预期，但股价却下跌了。
Microsoft also beat on revenue and profitability, and it dropped.
市场对它进行了重创。
The market crushed it.
我认为周四下跌了11%，而今天正是我们录制的时间。
I think it's down 11% on Thursday, which is when we're recording.
是的。
Yes.
我们今天在周四录制的是周五的节目。
We're recording Friday edition on Thursday today.
但我认为这仍然有效。
But I think it still works.
无论如何，导致微软股价下跌的原因，人们说是Azure的收入增长没有达到预期速度。
Anyway, the thing about the thing that caused Microsoft to drop, people are saying, is that Azure revenue didn't grow as fast as they expected.
人们原本预期Azure的收入会增长约40%。
There was some expectation that Azure revenue would grow, something like 40%.
目前只增长了37%到38%。
It's only growing 37 or 38%.
微软和Meta的资本支出都将增加。
Both micro Microsoft and Meta's, capital expenditures are going to go up.
Meta的资本支出从原本预测的约1100亿美元，上升到了接近1350亿美元的高位。
Meta's went from, like, a predicted, like, 110,000,000,000 on the year to something, like, close to a 135 at the top range.
我认为这值得注意，因为它表明在这个世界里，容错空间极其有限，一旦你出现任何差错，市场就会解读为你在AI领域将面临严重问题。
I think this is notable because, it just shows that there's so little room for error in this world that if you get, you know, if you if you get anything wrong, the market will interpret that they are going that you're gonna, have some serious problems when it comes to AI.
你怎么看？
What do you think?
是的
Yeah.
我的意思是，这些大型科技公司每季度发布的财报都像一场彩票。
I mean, it's it's every quarterly earnings that come out from these big tech companies, it's sort of a lottery.
比如，你一开始看数字，会觉得哇，营收和利润都大幅超出预期。
Like, you look at the numbers initially, and you're like, wow, those are big beats on revenue, big beats on profit.
我们看到Azure增长了30%到39%，预订量大幅上升，但股价却暴跌。
Like, we're seeing a 30 a 39% growth in Azure and huge increase in bookings, and yet the shares plunge.
微软在市场上的表现惨不忍睹。
Microsoft gets absolutely killed in the market.
华尔街总是玩一些把戏，对吧？
And there are always games played by Wall Street, right?
人们不只是希望你超过分析师的预期，还希望你超越预期的预期，对吧？
People don't just want to see you beat the analyst estimates, they want to see you beat the beat, Right?
因此，微软陷入了这种非常奇怪的境地：Azure收入增速仅差一个百分点，就导致其股价蒸发了数千亿美元。
And so Microsoft has found itself in this very strange situation where a one percentage point miss in its Azure revenue momentum causes wipes hundreds of billions off its share price.
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此外，微软还有其他几件事情正在发生。
And then people are also there are also several other things going on at Microsoft.
你知道，关于OpenAI以及其资本支出，披露了一些非常有趣的信息。
You know, there are some very interesting things disclosed about OpenAI, but also its CapEx.
微软本财年预计支出将达到1400亿美元，不过他们的财年有点特殊。
Like, Microsoft is on track to spend a 140,000,000,000 this fiscal year, which their fiscal year is a bit weird.
他们的财年是从七月到六月，而不是到十二月。
It runs from to June instead of to December.
这与去年第四季度的支出水平基本一致，当时他们支出了370亿美元。
And that's pretty much with on track with what they spent in the last quarter of last year, which was 37,000,000,000.
但人们对此提出质疑，因为这一数字比前一年同期高出66%，增幅巨大。
But people are questioning this, this is 66% more than they spent in the same period the year before, these are vast jumps.
另一个引起关注的是，由于OpenAI已从非营利组织重组为营利性公司，微软不得不以一种稍有不同的方式披露其与OpenAI的关系。
And then the other thing that caught people's eye was they had to disclose their relationship with OpenAI in a slightly different way, now that OpenAI is restructured as a for profit company from a nonprofit.
他们披露称，由于OpenAI进行了大量融资，其资产负债表上现金大幅增加，微软因此确认了100亿美元的现金收益。
And they revealed that they booked 10,000,000,000 cash gain from the amount of cash OpenAI has on its balance sheet due to all these huge fundraisings that they're doing.
但他们还表示，他们未来45%的Azure合同都基于OpenAI。
But they also said 45% of their future Azure contracts were based on OpenAI.
所以在财报电话会上，分析师们立刻说：我本来想说‘天哪’，但还是说‘我的天’吧，你们45%的收入都和OpenAI挂钩。
So immediately on the earnings call, the analysts are like, I was about to say holy s there, but I should say, oh my god, you know, 45% of your revenue is tied to OpenAI.
记住，正如我们之前所说，这是一家收入很高的公司，但它并不盈利。
Remember, this is a company, as we said before, it makes a lot of revenue, but it doesn't make that it doesn't make any profit.
对于微软这样规模和历史的公司来说，如此依赖单一客户是一个巨大的警示信号，而这个客户本身还充满争议，并且正面临来自谷歌、埃隆·马斯克和Anthropic日益增长的竞争。
That's for a company the size and age of Microsoft to be that reliant on a single customer is a big red flag, a single customer that has a lot of noise around that and increasingly has competition from Google and Elon Musk and Anthropic.
因此，CFO在电话会的大部分时间里试图说明：也许45%是来自OpenAI，但另外55%不是，那仍然是3500亿美元的收入。
So the CFO spent most of the calls trying to say, well, maybe 45% of it is OpenAI, but that means that 55% isn't and that's still $350,000,000,000 in revenue.
但正如你所见，当时股价已经下跌了7%，而我今天早上醒来时，股价已经跌了11%。
But as you can see, the shares were down 7% at that point, I when woke up this morning, they were down 11%.
所以我认为微软CFO艾米·胡德并没有很好地说服大家。
So I don't think Amy Hood, the CFO of Microsoft did a very good job persuading everybody.
但这又回到了我们之前讨论的关于多元化的问题。
But it plays back into what we were saying before about this diversification.
微软花了很长时间与OpenAI签订大量独家合同，既锁定其技术，又使其成为主要的计算服务提供商。
Like Microsoft has spent a long time locking OpenAI down to lots of exclusive contracts with it, both for its technology and to be its main compute provider.
然后在过去十八个月里，它一直在努力摆脱这些合同，这就是它投资Anthropic的原因。
It's then spent the last eighteen months trying to get out of those, and that's why it's investing in Anthropic.
这就是它进行投资的原因。
That's why it's investing.
人们忽略了这一点。
People miss this.
它正在大力投资法国AI公司Mistral，因为它相信欧洲不会允许其人工智能完全由一群西海岸科技公司和埃隆·马斯克掌控。
It's investing a lot in Mistral, the French AI house, because it believes that Europe is not gonna let its AI be run entirely by a bunch of West Coast tech companies and Elon Musk.
因此，微软现在全力推动多元化布局。
So Microsoft is now all about the diversification.
以前，它曾吹嘘自己将对OpenAI的140亿美元投资变成了公司上市时价值数倍于原投资的巨额资产。
Before, it was taking credit for turning a 14,000,000,000 investment into OpenAI into whatever the hell that will be worth, many multiples more when the company goes public.
现在，它不想再谈论OpenAI了。
Now it doesn't wanna talk about OpenAI.
它想谈论Anthropic。
It wants to talk about Anthropic.
它想谈论Mistral。
It wants to talk about Mistral.
它想谈论自己的模型和自己的芯片。
It wants to talk about its own models and its own chips.
我认为这是它试图向市场传达的一个新故事，这也是为什么我们看到它的股价受到了冲击。
And I think that's a new story that it's trying to tell the market, which is why we saw its shares got hit.
然后，正如你所说，Meta是另一个完全不同的故事。
Then as you said, Meta is this whole other story.
这是我的看法。
This is my perspective here.
我认为我们还处于人工智能的非常早期阶段，市场正在寻找任何关于未来走向的信号。
I think we're just so early on in the AI game that the market is looking for any signal for where this is going.
它就像是，哦，增长有点放缓了。
And it's like, oh, like, it's a little bit of a slowdown in growth.
微软会输掉人工智能这场竞赛。
Microsoft's gonna lose the AI game.
与此同时，我们还处于建设的早期阶段。
Meanwhile, we're so early in the build out.
我们不知道接下来会发生什么。
We have no idea what's gonna happen.
我们也不知道基于本季度的收入，Meta的超级智能会如何发展。
We have no idea what's gonna happen with Meta Superintelligence based off of this quarter's revenue.
所以这一切都是基于有限数据的推测。
So it's all extrapolation based off of limited data.
没错。
Exactly.
而且你看，市场对季度财报的短期反应，对吧？
And you look at the quarterly the short term quarterly reaction to the quarterly earnings, right?
股价下跌了5%。
They're down 5%.
记得两个季度前，我们还在讨论Meta在几分钟内市值蒸发了两千多亿美元。
Remember, two quarters ago, we were talking about how Meta had 200 plus billion white from its valuation in a matter of minutes.
现在我们却在谈论它在几分钟内增加了三千亿美元的市值。
Now we're talking about how it had 300,000,000,000 added in a matter of minutes.
但如果你看这些科技股的长期趋势，情况就是这样。
But if you look at the long term trajectory of all of these tech stocks, it's like this.
你知道，谷歌现在的市值已经超过四万亿美元。
You know, Google is now worth more than 4,000,000,000,000.
微软实际上已经落后了，谷歌在市值竞赛中已经超越了它。
Microsoft is, you know, lost its actually, Google has bolted it, leapfrogged it in the kind of market cap race.
微软仍然有3.6万亿美元，而英伟达则远远领先，达到五万亿美元。
Microsoft is still 3.6, and we've got NVIDIA way out ahead of everyone at 5,000,000,000,000.
总体趋势仍然是向上的，但市场现在非常敏感，任何需求减弱的迹象都会引发人们对泡沫收缩甚至破裂的担忧。
The general trend is still upwards, but we just have this skittishness in the market as anyone's looking for any signs of weakening demand, the bubble, you know, contracting or even popping.
但如果只是看支出的话，Meta今年的资本支出将翻倍，用于数据中心、芯片、服务器以及支持这些业务所需的一切，包括电力设施的升级。
But if it was just about spending, Meta double is gonna double this year its CapEx, so like spending on data centers and chips and servers and everything that goes into supporting that, upgrading power structure.
它将从上一年的720亿美元增加到1350亿美元。
It's gonna double it to a 135,000,000,000, you know, from 72,000,000,000 the year before.
但这还不是扎克伯格在那里花的全部钱。
And that's not all that Zuckerberg is spending on over there.
他还投入数亿美元用于薪酬包，试图吸引其他领先AI实验室的人才，以重建他们自己的Llama模型——而这一模型至今已严重落后，给他们带来了巨大尴尬。
He's also spending hundreds of millions on compensation packages to try and attract staff, you know, from other leading AI labs to try and rebuild their own LAMA model, which, of course, fallen badly behind has been a huge embarrassment for them to this point.
但Meta关键性地展示了AI正在提升其广告定向和广告收入，无论是在Instagram、WhatsApp、Threads还是Facebook上，其合作伙伴都非常喜欢这一点。
But Meta was crucially able to show that AI is improving their ad targeting and their ad revenue, and their counterparties love this, whether it's on Instagram, WhatsApp, Threads, Facebook.
因此，市场对此给予了回报。
And so the market rewarded that.
他们心想：好吧，你确实要将资本支出翻倍，但你同时也向我们展示了AI如何切实提升你的广告收入，因为Meta本质上就是一个庞大的广告业务。
They're like, okay, you're going to double CapEx, but you're actually also showing us like some tangible impacts on AI improving your advertising revenue, because that's what Meta is, it's just a big advertising business.
微软还没有做到这一点。
Microsoft hasn't done that.
你知道，微软对OpenAI做出了出色的早期投资，但尚未证明它能像Office套件那样产生实际影响。
You know, Microsoft has made a great early bet on OpenAI, but it hasn't proven that it's like Office suite of products.
通过整合人工智能，它已经得到了显著提升，如果他们能真正改善它，就意味着他们可以提高价格并增加利润率。
It have been meaningfully improved by integrating AI and, you know, by and if they can meaningfully improve it, that means that they can charge more for it and they can increase their margins.
利润率。
Margins.
这对微软来说现在是最大的游戏。
That's That's the big game now for Microsoft.
因为这既是一个软件业务，也是一个数据中心业务。
Because it's a it's a software business and a data center business.
我认为前者在如何将各种模型整合进去方面还存在很多疑问。
And I think the former has quite a lot of question marks about how it's integrating the various models into it.
但我要说的是重点。
But here's my big point.
我认为我们不能从目前发生的事情中解读出任何信息。
I don't think we can read anything into what's happening already.
我的意思是，我们仍然处于建设阶段。
I mean, it's we're still in the build out phase.
我们仍然处于卖铲子的阶段。
We're still in the picks and shovel phase.
我们离AI相关经济活动的收益超过基础设施支出的金额还远得很。
We're not anywhere near the point where economic activity tied to AI is exceeding the amount of money being spent on infrastructure.
是的。
Yes.
Meta 在利用生成式 AI 进行创意优化方面做了一些事情。
Meta has done some things with generative AI being used for creative optimization.
是的。
Yes.
他们也用传统的机器学习来更好地优化自己的平台。
They've done some things on using standard machine learning to better optimize their platforms.
但 Meta 如今所做的一切，根本无法决定其 AI 项目是否成功，因为那一切都关乎个人智能这个方向。
But there's no way that what Meta is doing today will have any bearing on whether its AI program succeeds because that's all about this personal intelligence thing.
至于微软，我们也会看看微软会怎样。
And Microsoft too, we'll see what happens with Microsoft.
但在我看来，所有这些竞争似乎都像你提到的那样，它们的大部分收入将来自OpenAI，而不是那些部署AI解决方案的最终用户。
But they're it seems to me like all the jockeying has been like you mentioned, so much of their revenue is gonna be coming from OpenAI, not end users who are deploying AI solutions.
因此，我认为当前市场就像蒙着眼睛一样，四处乱撞，试图判断谁在AI领域胜出，谁没有。
And so I think the market is blindfolded right now, swinging around, trying to be like, who's winning AI, who's not.
而我们甚至在几年内都无法知道谁真正领先。
Whereas, we won't know even who is leading for a couple of years.
是的。
Yeah.
目前领先或处于优势的是Anthropic。
And who is leading or having a good moment is anthropic at the moment.
接下来可能是谷歌再次领先。
It could be Google again next.
也许OpenAI会推出一个令人惊叹的新模型，彻底颠覆局面，真正抓住公众的想象力，或成为财富500强公司不可或缺的工具。
Maybe OpenAI knocks the lights you know, blows the lights out with, like, an incredible new model with something that really captures the public imagination or is indispensable to Fortune 500 companies.
一切都如此流动和灵活。
Everything is so fluid and flexible.
这就是为什么作为记者来报道这件事如此有趣，对吧？
That's why it's so much fun to cover as journalists, right?
但这也相当令人疲惫。
But it's also pretty exhausting as well.
我们还没谈到埃隆·马斯克呢。
We haven't even gotten to Elon Musk yet.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
这个话题马上就要来了，本。
That's coming, Ben.
我听说GPT-6可能会在今年第二季度推出，也许就在今年春天，这会很有趣。
And I I did hear that GPT six might be coming in the second quarter this year, so maybe as soon as, you know, this spring, which would be interesting.
好吧。
Alright.
还有一个公司要聊一下财报，然后我们就可以进入……哦，天哪。
One more company to touch on with earnings, and then we can get into oh, shoot.
我们有太多内容要讨论了。
We have so much to discuss.
我们先快速聊聊苹果，如果时间允许，再谈一下亚马逊的裁员，然后我们再进入埃隆的话题。
Let's talk about Apple quickly, and then the Amazon layoffs if we have a moment, and then we'll get into Elon.
首先，苹果。
So first of all, Apple.
我的判断是，苹果今年可能会成为有史以来表现最好的一年，无论是过去还是未来，因为现在还没有真正的AI设备，而它的销量却异常火爆。
My operation has been that Apple's gonna have the best year, you know, of its history, maybe, you know, in the past and going forward because it's in this moment where, like, there's no AI device, and it's selling like crazy.
我只想就你关于苹果财报的报道提一点看法。
I'll just give one note from your story about Apple's earnings.
顺便说一句，业绩表现太出色了。
By the way, blowout earnings.
他们做到了。
They did it.
他们的营收超出了预期。
They beat on revenue.
他们的收益也超出了预期。
They beat on earnings.
iPhone的收入同比增长23%，达到853亿美元。
The iPhone revenue grew 23% to $85.80 85,300,000,000.0 compared with the prior year.
我认为之前的预测是增长大约14%。
I think the the estimation was it was gonna grow something like 14.
不对。
No.
16%。
16.
不对。
No.
是的。
Yeah.
14%。
14%.
它增长了23%。
It grew 23%.
这是一家长期以来难以实现两位数iPhone增长的公司。
This is a company that's been struggling to post double digit iPhone growth for a long time.
在我看来，苹果在2026年似乎已经掌握了主动权。
To me, it just seems that Apple is kind of in the driver's seat in 2026.
还没有AI设备，也没有爆款AI消费应用，但iPhone却卖得像热饼一样。
No AI device, no killer AI consumer app yet, but the iPhone was selling like hotcakes.
你怎么看？
What do you think?
下一款iPhone本应是首款支持AI的机型。
Well, the next iPhone was supposed to be the first AI enabled one.
你知道的，Siri本该被全面升级。
You know, Siri was gonna be overhauled.
它本应成为你事实上的个人助手，但这一切并没有发生。
It was gonna become your de facto, like, personal assistant, and that just didn't happen.
我的意思是，我相信你们在播客里已经多次讨论过这个问题了，但我们看到的是iPhone 17是一款爆款产品。
I mean, I'm sure we've you've you've spoken about this on the podcast multiple times before, but what we have seen is the iPhone 17 was a blockbuster product.
它推动了大规模的换机潮，尤其在中国市场也非常明显，这恰恰展现了CEO蒂姆·库克在特朗普和中国之间走钢丝的艰难处境。
You know, it drove a huge upgrade cycle, I mean, really interestingly, in China as well, which, you know, shows the tightrope that that's tightrope that that CEO Tim Cook has been walking between Trump and China.
你知道，他至今仍在坚持，尽管有人声称他已经退出了。
You know, he's he's still on it, you know, despite claims to the contrary.
阴谋论者说，新系统更新的液态玻璃功能在iPhone 14及更早机型上表现糟糕，而我正好用着一台，我可以证实，是的，确实很卡顿。
Conspiracy theorists say that the the new OS update liquid glass performs so badly on the 14 backwards, and I have one of those and I can verify that, yeah, it's pretty janky.
我喜欢这一点。
I love that.
这太棒了。
That's amazing.
有可能。
Could be.
你开发了一个如此复杂的操作系统，导致旧款iPhone运行起来又慢又烦人，于是人们只好升级，只是为了让界面看起来稍微好看一点。
You make an operating system that's so complicated to run, the old iPhones feel slow and annoying, so you upgrade in order to, you know, for it to look slightly nicer.
但你知道，在经历了这么多报道之后，都说苹果在中国智能手机市场失利了，错失了人工智能的机会。
But, you know, after all these these reports that, you know, Apple had Apple had lost, the smartphone market in China, it had bungled the AI opportunity.
我的意思是，这一季度确实回答了很多这些问题。
I mean, this quarter did answer a lot of those questions.
对吧？
Right?
人们仍然在购买iPhone，远超其他任何设备。
People are still buying the iPhone above almost any other device.
地缘政治并没有扰乱它的供应链。
Geopolitics haven't disrupted its supply chains.
它也没有因为持续的贸易战而在中国遭受事实上的禁令。
It hasn't enjoyed sort of like it hasn't suffered from a de facto ban in China because of the because of the trade war that's been going on.
而且，你知道，它们并没有像竞争对手那样花费数千亿美元来建设数据中心、投资初创公司或开发模型。
And, you know, they're not spending the hundreds of billions that their rivals are on building data centers and investing or investing in startups or building models.
它们只是与谷歌的Gemini达成了协议，就像之前的搜索合作一样，让Gemini来提升Siri。
They just signed a deal with Google Gemini, much like their search deal to put to make Gemini improve Siri.
所以他们把很多人工智能方面的事务外包了，只是专注于成为大多数人体验人工智能的主要设备。
So they're kind of outsourcing a lot of this AI stuff, and they're just focusing on being the main device through which most people will experience it.
而且，长远来看，也许未来十年到二十年这个策略会是个错误的赌注，但短期内，他们确实省下了大量资金，同时依然卖出了很多手机。
And, you know, maybe long long term, you know, over the next ten to twenty years, that'll be a bad bet, but certainly in the short term, they're saving a lot of money and still selling a lot of phones.
是的。
Yeah.
他们看起来在一段时间内都会状态不错。
They seem like they're gonna be in good shape for a while.
你说得对。
And you're right.
我认为这从长远来看是个劣势，但在短期内，当所有其他公司都在大笔投入时，苹果只是坐在那里，看起来会非常出色。
I think it is a long term liability, but it's gonna look really nice in the short term as all the spending happens and Apple just kinda sits there.
合作伙伴卖出了大量手机。
Partners sells a ton of phones.
也许他们又推出了一款糟糕的设计，反而促使更多人升级。
Maybe it ships another bad design and then makes more people upgrade.
他们今年会推出新款手机。
They have the phone coming this year.
我真的觉得，这可能是苹果在进入失落十年之前的巅峰之年。
I I really think that this is this could be the the the year of Apple preceding the the lost decade.
至少这是我的看法。
They that's my opinion at least.
他们今天收购了一家非常保密的以色列初创公司，该技术可以分析面部表情的微小变化，这意味着你可以在不说话的情况下进行交流。
And they're gonna they they bought us very secretive Israeli startup today where the technology analyzes micro changes in facial expressions, which that sort of say means you can communicate without talking.
但我认为，这表明苹果正像Meta和谷歌一样，密切关注可穿戴设备，尤其是眼镜。
But I do think it shows that Apple is, as Meta and Google are as well, looking very closely at wearables, but in particular, like glasses.
另一个对苹果的重大潜在风险是乔尼·艾维设计的全新无屏设备，OpenAI正在协助融资，而我们听说，这正是苹果决定采用谷歌Gemini而非OpenAI和ChatGPT来驱动Siri的重要原因之一——毕竟，Pixel其实并不是iPhone的真正竞争对手。
I guess another big tail risk for Apple is this Johnny Ive design, new device, screenless device that OpenAI is helping finance, which we hear is a big part of the reason why Apple decided to go with Google Gemini instead of OpenAI and ChatGPT to power Siri because you're like, okay, Pixel's not really a competitor to the iPhone.
这一点在过去几年中已经得到了验证，但无论这个新的乔尼·艾维设备是什么，它都可能构成相当大的威胁。
It's proved that over a number of years now, but whatever this new Johnny I have devices could potentially be quite threatening.
所以，虽然有诸多变数，但苹果看起来依然非常健康。
So there's a lot of moving parts, but Apple still looks pretty healthy.
我的意思是，我自己并没有iPhone 17，但我确实去了一趟帕洛阿尔托的万圣节派对。
I mean, don't have an iPhone 17 myself, I did go to a I did go to a Halloween party down in Palo Alto.
我去的那栋房子紧挨着史蒂夫·乔布斯妻子的家，她在那里举办规模极其盛大的万圣节派对，有机械装置、几十名演员，很多人从很远的地方赶来观看。
And the the house I went to is next door to Steve Jobs' wife, and she hosts an absolutely enormous Halloween party there, we're talking animatronics, like dozens of actors, people come from miles around to see it.
排队的人绕了街区一圈，所以我没带女儿们进去。
The queue goes around the block, so I chose not to take my daughters into it.
但我发现，如果你在队尾等上一小时，他们会给每个人发一个亮橙色的万圣节主题iPhone 17。
But I realized if you stood in that queue for an hour at the end, they were giving everyone a bright orange Halloween themed iPhone 17.
所以也许，她并不是在免费赠送，对吧？
So maybe, I don't think she was giving them away, right?
这些手机大概不会计入销量数据。
So those probably don't count towards the sales figures.
但人们对这款设备都兴奋不已，我可以作证，它看起来确实很酷。
But people were absolutely delighted by this device, and I can testify that it looks pretty cool.
好吧。
Alright.
下次我一定要去参加她的派对。
I gotta go to her party next time.
听起来太棒了。
That sounds amazing.
我要说，首先，关于Anthropic最近的动向，这事儿挺有意思的，我们开头稍微提过一点。
I I'm gonna say, first of all, an interesting thing speaking of you know, we talked a little bit at the beginning of anthropic having a moment here.
事实上，苹果原本想先和Anthropic合作，使用Claude。
Actually, Apple wanted to go with anthropic first, and they wanted to use Claude.
这是马克·古尔曼本周透露的。
This is according to Mark Gurman, said it this week.
结果Anthropic basically想向他们收取高额费用。
Turns out Anthropic, you know, was basically trying to charge them a lot of money.
后来他们最终选择了备选方案，也就是谷歌。
And then they eventually went with plan b, which was Google.
这真是个有趣的转折。
So that's an interesting wrinkle.
我得告诉你，我认为这个设备根本不会对苹果构成威胁，至少在未来几年内不会。
I have to tell you, I don't think the device is gonna threaten Apple at all, at least for the next couple at least for the next couple years.
我真的觉得这些AI设备在短期内会让人大失所望。
I I really think that these AI devices are gonna be a big letdown in the near term.
另一个Humane Pin。
Another humane pin.
我的意思是，这挺有趣的。
I I mean, it you know, it's funny.
我们开玩笑说Humane Pin，顺便说一下，我认为它是几个曾参与iPhone开发的人创造的。
We joke about the humane pin, and we think by the way, created by, I think, a couple of people who worked on the iPhone.
我们觉得，苹果当然会提出比Humane Pin好得多的点子，而也许只是交互层太差了。
And we think that, of course, Apple will come up with a much better idea than the humane pin, whereas maybe the interaction layer just sucked.
我认为这一点经常被忽视，而它本应得到更多关注。
And I think that's not taken into account as often as it should be.
更糟糕的是，它还过热甚至爆炸了。
It didn't help that it also overheated and exploded.
好吧，我的意思是，你当然不希望自己的设备出现这种情况，但过去公司们也都克服过类似问题。
Well, listen, I mean, you never really want that in your device, but we've companies get over that in the past.
是的。
Yeah.
看吧，他们能把所有能出错的地方都出错了。
Look, everything that they could have done wrong, they did wrong.
这个产品并不出色。
The product wasn't great.
在安全方面存在一些问题，而且他们还推出了一段非常奇怪的、情绪化的视频。
There were some issues with the safety side of things, and they they gave they rolled it out with this very weird, like, emo video.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
That's right.
这确实不是一次成功的发布，但这也正是我想说的。
Not not exactly a great rollout, but also that's what I'm saying.
也许所有这些问题都是原因，或者可能是产品形态本身出了问题。
Like, Maybe all those things were the problem or maybe the form factor was the problem.
我想我们很快就会知道答案了。
And I think we're going to find out pretty soon what the answer is.
好吧。
All right.
说到那些尝试在产品中加入多种AI版本的公司，我们来看看亚马逊。
Speaking of companies that try lots of different versions of products with AI inside, we have Amazon.
亚马逊本周没有公布财报，但他们本周正在裁员16,000人。
And Amazon did not report earnings this week, but they are laying off 16,000 people this week.
这是来自《商业内幕》的消息。
This is from Business Insider.
亚马逊从周三早上开始通知受影响的员工，作为其削减16,000个公司职位计划的一部分。
Amazon started notifying impacted employees Wednesday morning as part of its plan to cut 16,000 corporate jobs.
亚马逊人力资源负责人贝丝·加莱蒂写道：
The head of HR, Beth Galetti, at Amazon wrote this.
我有一件重要但艰难的消息要和你们分享。
I have important but difficult news to share with you.
经过对我们组织、优先事项以及未来需要聚焦方向的全面审查，我们做出了艰难的决定，裁撤亚马逊部分岗位。
After a thorough review of our organization, our priorities, and what we need to focus on going forward, we've made the hard decision to eliminate some roles across Amazon.
很遗憾，你的岗位将因此次调整被取消，你的雇佣关系将在通知期结束后终止。
Unfortunately, your role is being eliminated as part of the changes, and your employment will end after a notification period.
她还写道，我知道有些人可能觉得，我们似乎形成了每隔几个月就宣布大规模裁员的新节奏。
She also wrote basically, like, I, you know, I know that there's some indication that there's a new rhythm, or some of you might think there's a new rhythm where we announce broad reductions every few months.
因为我想，这难道是他们在两年内第四次大规模裁员了吗？
Because I think, what is this, the fourth mass layoff that they've had over two years?
但她表示，这并非我们的计划。
And she said that's not our plan.
亚马逊本来就是一个员工普遍处于高度紧张状态的公司，这次裁员不会让情况变得更好。
Amazon is a company that's, like, already operating with somewhat paranoid employees, so this isn't gonna make things much better.
你对这次裁员的主要看法是什么？
What's your main takeaway about the workforce reduction here?
你认为这对公司来说是好兆头还是坏兆头？
And do you think it's a good or a bad sign for the company?
我觉得有两件事正在发生。
There are two things I think that's going on.
一是他们在疫情期间雇了很多人，你知道，当时配送需求激增，他们急需扩大员工队伍来应对。
One is they hired a lot of people during the pandemic, you know, when delivery surged, and they really needed, they needed to surge in their own workforce to cope with this.
我认为，随着在线商业逐渐恢复正常，我们现在正在看到对此前扩张的调整。
And I think we're seeing a correction on some of that now as your online commerce normalizes somewhat.
但我们也看到，这家公司投入了500亿美元进入OpenAI，还有更多资金投入了Anthropic。
But we're also seeing is a company which 50,000,000,000 going into OpenAI plus a lot more into Anthropic.
我认为，这是一家正在为AI时代做准备的公司，无论是在白领岗位，还是在工厂等蓝领岗位上。
I think this is a company preparing for an era of AI, whether that's both in its white collar jobs, but also blue collar jobs like working in the factories.
也就是说，它已经是世界上自动化程度最高的公司之一。
I mean, it's already one of the most automated companies in the world.
无论如何，亚马逊始终专注于底线，只要能降低成本，尤其是永久性地降低成本，它就会尽力去做。
And if nothing else, Amazon is relentlessly focused on the bottom line, anywhere it can cut costs, in particular permanently, it will try and do so.
所以，如果你是亚马逊的员工，这种情况会非常令人不安。
So it's a very uncomfortable situation for you to be if you are an Amazon employee.
当然，亚马逊的工作环境本就是有意设计得让人不适，对吧？
So of course, working at Amazon is uncomfortable by design, right?
他们希望让你始终处于紧张状态，以确保你始终保持最高的生产力和进取心。
They want to keep you right on the edge to make sure that you're constantly as productive and aggressive as you can be.
但在我看来，我们正在目睹的是一家公司，它正为一个完全不同的电子商务时代做准备，同时也为工厂运作及其各类网站背后的技术研发做准备。
But what we're seeing here, I think, is a company that's getting ready for what it believes to be a completely different era of e commerce, but also working in factories and producing some of the running and producing some of the technology behind its various websites.
它只是认为未来不需要这么多人了。
It just doesn't think it's gonna need as many people in the future.
我知道人力资源主管正试图安抚大家，说这并不是新常态，但我非常怀疑，未来十二个月内亚马逊不会再有大规模裁员。
I know the HR chief is trying to calm everyone down by saying this is not the new normal, but I would be very surprised as if this is the last mass layoff as Amazon we see in the next twelve months.
关于这一点，我还有一个问题。
So one more question about this.
你认为这和人工智能有关吗？
Do you think this is AI related?
也就是说，你认为人工智能正在自动化亚马逊员工的工作吗？
As in, do you think AI is automating Amazon employees' jobs?
还是你觉得这是一项财务决策，旨在为人工智能投资腾出空间？
Or do you think this is a financial decision that might make room for some of the AI investment?
我认为两者都有。
I think it's a little bit of both.
我的意思是，向来如此。
I mean, it always is.
他们在裁员时，就像其他公司一样，提到要精简层级结构。
They talked about thinning out layers of bureaucracy as every company does when they make cuts.
但我认为，他们也注意到一些能够将人工智能融入日常工作的员工，变得更加高效。
But I also think that they're seeing some of the employees that have been able to integrate AI into their daily work life and become more productive.
我认为他们正在提前布局这一点。
I think they're kind of looking ahead of that.
我们没有关于被裁员工的确切人口统计数据，但我认为，被裁的很可能是那些较年长的员工，他们可能不太能或不太愿意适应这种新的AI驱动的工作方式。
We don't have the exact demographic data of who they've let go, but I think it'd probably be more heavily weighted into the older employees that, you know, are maybe less able or less willing to adapt to this new AI powered way of working.
而且，当然了，虽然我们下周才会看到亚马逊的财报，但公司增长的势头并没有放缓。
And certainly, if you look well, we get Amazon's results next week, but there's no slowdown in momentum of the company's growth.
所以，尽管他们已经裁掉了这么多员工，短期内你会看到业绩受挫，因为你得支付他们遣散费，但从长期来看，你的成本基础会大幅下降。
So without even though they've been taking all these employees out of the company, you see a short term hit because you have to pay all of them severance, But longer term, your cost base comes down dramatically.
是的。
Yeah.
亚马逊有一套领导力原则作为公司运营的指导，其中一条叫做‘发明与简化’。
Amazon has this has a number of leadership principles that the company runs by, and one of them is called invent and simplify.
你觉得这指的是什么？就是你引入技术解决方案，简化流程。
And what do you think that means is, like, you you sort of put technological solutions into place and simplify processes.
而人工智能则将这一点推向了极致，让你可以直接发明并简化自己的工作。
And gendered AI puts that on overdrive where you can just invent and simplify your own job.
长期以来，这一直是亚马逊员工引以为豪的标志——他们不断发明、简化，然后转向新的任务。
And that has been a calling card and something that Amazon employees have been proud of for a long time as they invent, they simplify, and they go and they move on to something else.
我不禁想知道，如果员工们意识到‘简化’的最终结果可能是被裁，这一领导力原则是否还能继续保持其在公司中的重要地位，以及继续获得员工群体的支持。
And I don't I wonder if that leadership principle will maintain the prominence that it's had within that organization and the and the support it's had among the employee base if they realize that at the end of simplify, it can be leave.
必须是创新、简化，然后再创新。
It has to be invent, simplify, and then invent again.
如果只是创新、简化然后离开，那么公司内部的创新和效率精神可能会严重受损。
If it's invent, simplify, and leave, then that spirit of invention and efficiency within the company could really suffer.
是的。
Yeah.
确实如此。
That's true.
我的意思是，如果创新的结果是让自己失业，这确实很难让人接受。
I mean, if it's innovate yourself out of a job, it's a difficult thing to get your head around.
对。
Yeah.
过去，他们对此感到自豪，因为他们总能找到另一份工作。
And that used to be something they used to be proud of because they would get another job.
但当这种保障不复存在时，这就成了一个问题。
But when that doesn't when that security isn't there, that's a problem.
好的。
Okay.
让我们谈谈，这正是达里奥·阿马德前几天在他那篇两万字的长文中谈到的内容。
Let's Well, talk about that's sort of what Dario was Dario Amade was talking about in his 20,000 word opus the other day.
你知道，我们会看到，他预测会有很多工作岗位流失，因为越来越少的人能够完成如此多的工作，或者一旦真正开始使用具有自主性的AI助手，整个流程就可能被完全自动化，这些AI助手可以在不需要频繁监督的情况下工作。
You know, we're gonna see he predicts at least a lot of job losses, you know, as you know, fewer people are able to do so much more work or even a completely automated out of the process once they really start to get, you know, agentic AI powered, like coworkers, you know, working to a degree that they don't constantly have to be checked.
好的。
Okay.
简短地谈一下SpaceX。
Very briefly, let's talk about SpaceX.
看起来IPO很快就要来了。
Looks like an IPO is coming pretty soon.
人们认为可能会在六月进行，这正好赶上埃隆·马斯克的生日，以及木星和金星的某种行星排列——这又得去问《金融时报》了。
People are thinking it's gonna be in June, which will coincide with Elon Musk's birthday and some planetary alignment where on June, Jupiter and Venus this is going again to the Financial Times.
感谢你们本周出色的报道。
Thanks for the great reporting this week.
木星和金星在天空中的距离将不到一度，大约相当于伸直手臂后拇指的宽度。
Jupiter and Venus will be within little more than one degree of each other in the sky about the width of a thumb held at arm's length.
你怎么看？
Your thoughts.
我
I
我的意思是，在埃隆·马斯克公司，这不就是再平常不过的一天吗？
mean, it's it's just another day in the Elon Musk Inc, isn't it?
你知道，报道这个人既令人着迷，又极其困难，因为你常常分不清他是不是在开玩笑。
You know, reporting on this man is fascinating, but also extremely difficult because you often can't tell whether he's joking or not.
但他已经向投资者表示，他认为六月的IPO会落在一个吉祥的时刻。
But he has gone out there, told investors that he wants he thinks an IPO in June would fall in an auspicious state.
正如你所说，水星——抱歉，是木星和金星的合相发生在八日至九日，几天后水星又会加入其中。
As you said, the conjunction of Mercury sorry, Jupiter and Venus, which is then on the eighth to ninth, which is then joined again by Mercury in a few days later.
他的生日当然在六月，但6月28日是星期日，而显然，股市在星期日是关闭的，不可能在那天进行IPO。
His birthday is obviously in that month, June 28 is a Sunday though, so of course, you can't hold an IPO when markets are closed on a Sunday.
但他抛出了这个想法，他喜欢激发人们的紧迫感，大家都说在如此短的时间内完成如此规模的上市是不可能的，但马斯克的第一性原理是什么呢？
But he's thrown out this idea, he likes to light a fire under people, everyone's saying you can't do an IPO in particular of this scale in that timeframe, but Musk's first principles, right?
你质疑一切，并迫使人们努力工作，把事情搞定。
You question everything and you force people to just work hard and get it done.
还有一些事情，你得打个折扣来看待。
There are other things that you've to take it with a pinch of salt.
你知道，过去几周，这在欧洲可是个大新闻。
You know, this has been a big story in Europe, at least over the last few weeks.
你和瑞安航空发生了一些网络争执，那是一家廉价的欧洲航空公司，他们以抠门著称，如果你不想坐在机翼上，就得为每样东西额外付费。
You got into a bit of an online spat with Ryanair, which is like a budget European airline over them refusing you know, they're notoriously cheap, like, have to pay for everything if you don't wanna sit on the wing.
他们拒绝在飞机上安装星链系统。
And they were refusing to put Starlink on the planes.
显然，埃隆希望飞机上配备星链，因为这样能赚更多钱，而他们争论的焦点是空气阻力问题。
And obviously, Elon wants Starlink on the planes because it earns more money and they were arguing about drag.
于是他威胁要收购这家公司，解雇了首席执行官迈克尔·奥莱利——他在英国是个大人物，并任命了一个叫瑞安的人接任。
So he threatened to buy the company, fired the CEO, a guy called Michael O'Leary, he's quite a big figure in The UK, and replace him with somebody called Ryan.
这正是Twitter收购案的开端，他当时开玩笑说要收购，谁也不知道事情会发展到什么地步。
This is how, of course, the Twitter acquisition started, him threatening to buy it as a joke for for so you never know where it ends up.
但我们听到的六月时间表，尽管有行星排列的说法，确实是有依据的。
But, you know, the we're hearing the June timeline despite the planetary alignment angle is a real thing.
但就在今天，又冒出许多其他报道，说他可能有意将Twitter与他其他一家或多家公司合并，这完全有可能。
But then just today, you you get all these other stories coming out that he might have ambitions to merge it with one or more of his other companies, and And that very well could be the case.
我的意思是，我们目前还没有听到任何确凿的消息，但这些传闻确实存在。
I mean, we haven't heard anything solid about it yet, but those are the rumors out there.
我认为，瑞安航空的规则是，在其管辖范围内，美国人或非欧洲人不能成为所有者。
Yeah, I think the rule with Ryanair is in the jurisdiction that it's in a American or a non European cannot be the owner.
所以这种想法根本行不通。
So that sort of idea is out the window.
但我相信，埃隆完全有可能设立一家欧洲子公司，安排他的人手，然后以这种方式收购它。
But I'm sure it's not beyond Elon to set up a set up a European subsidiary and staff it with one of his people and and buy it that way.
是的。
Yeah.
不。
No.
这得由埃隆来打破。
That's to be broken for Elon.
这有可能发生。
That that could happen.
你提到的那家公司，人们一直在谈论的，是SpaceX与XAI合并，这会非常有趣。
The the company that you you referenced that people have been talking about, yeah, SpaceX merging with is is x AI, which would be really interesting.
我认为，如果问我，这不是一个很好的组合，尤其是SpaceX受到严格监管。
I think not a great combination if you ask me, especially, you know, SpaceX is highly regulated.
它是一家政府承包商。
It's government contractor.
XAI最近在推特上引起了人们的关注。
XAI recently was, you know, people on on Twitter.
我不认为这是个好主意，我觉得这存在某种风险。
I don't think that's I think that's some sort of risk there.
但我真的很想知道你的看法。
But I am so so actually, am curious to hear your perspective.
这两家公司合并最合理的理由是什么？
What is the sort of most logical reason for why those two companies would combine?
最合理的理由是，SpaceX 向投资者私下提出的上市原因之一是需要筹集资金，以开发和建造太空中的数据中心。
The most logical reason is that SpaceX one of the reasons that have been given privately to investors for wanting to IPO SpaceX is that it needs to raise money so that it can develop and build data centers in space.
他们认为，当面向太阳的反方向时，环境非常寒冷，因此不需要支付冷却费用。
They argue that it's very cold when you're facing away from the sun, so you don't need to pay for cooling.
他（指的是埃隆·马斯克）已经拥有一个由九千颗星链卫星组成的网络，这些卫星通过激光相互连接和协调，因此太空中已经有了通信基础设施。
He already has a network, by he, I mean, Elon Musk, a network of 9,000 Starlink satellites all linked and coordinated by lasers, so you've got kind of like the communications infrastructure out there.
而且你拥有不受大气影响的无限太阳能。
And you have unlimited solar energy, not affected by the atmosphere.
我知道这听起来像疯狂的科幻情节，但这正是 SpaceX 一直以来的核心理念。
So I know it sounds like crazy sci fi stuff, but this is what SpaceX has constantly been based around.
几年前，没人会想到世界上最大的火箭助推器会由巨大的机械臂捕获，但他已经证明了这一技术挑战是可以克服的。
I don't think anyone thought the largest rocket in the world would be the booster stage would be caught by giant mechanical arms just a few years ago, but he's proven that that was a technological challenge that was surmountable.
所以他们的论点是，把它们合并在一起，xAI显然构建了X模型，这当然是马斯克的另一家公司，但据我所知，它已于去年三月与xAI合并了。
So the argument is you put them together, xAI obviously builds the models X, which of course was another Musk company, but which was merged, I think, last March with x AI.
Grok就是通过这个渠道发布的。
That's the distribution that Grok goes out under.
这就是马斯克在人工智能领域获胜的方式。
And that's how Musk is gonna win in AI.
他的模型可能没那么好，收入也没那么高，但他能赢得数据中心的竞争，把它们部署到太空中，领先于其他人。
Like his models might not be as good, he doesn't have the same revenue, but what he can do is win the data center race, you know, and and have these up in space before anybody else.
他并不是唯一一个在考虑这件事的人。
And he's not the only person looking at doing this.
谷歌也在研究这个方向。
Google's also looking at it.
杰夫·贝佐斯也正通过他的蓝色起源火箭公司考虑实施这一计划。
Jeff Bezos is looking at doing it through you know, through his blue blue origin rocket company.
所以，这就是看涨的理由。
So that's kind of the bull case.
这是理性的一面。
That's the rational case.
阴谋论认为，xAI估值高达2500亿美元，但收入却只有其极小的一部分。
The conspiracy theory is that, you know, x AI is worth 250,000,000,000, but has, you know, a tiny multiple of that in terms of revenue.
尽管通过X平台和社交媒体进行了不懈的推广，它并未获得多少关注。
It hasn't gained that much traction despite relentless promotion through X and on social media.
而且，像埃隆许多富有的朋友都投资了xAI。
And that like a lot of Elon's very wealthy friends are invested in x AI.
而确保他们投资安全的最简单方式，就像我们当初确保所有投资他收购Twitter的人一样，就是将其与一个更成功的、在该领域无可争议的领导者合并，那就是SpaceX。
And the easiest way to make sure their investment is protected, just like how we made everybody who invested in his acquisition of Twitter Hole, is to merge it with a more successful company that's the undisputed leader in its field, which would be SpaceX.
所以把它们合并在一起，人人都能分享收益，没人会亏钱，而且你还能关键性地投资于马斯克的下一轮融资，因为你清楚他一定会支持你、让你保本。
So you put them together, everyone enjoys the upside, nobody loses money, and you crucially invest in the next Musk fundraising knowing that he'll always have your back and make you whole.
是的。
Yeah.
在太空中进行训练这件事非常迷人。
The training in space thing is fascinating.
我的意思是，人们想到的那些东西，我知道谷歌也在考虑做类似的事情。
I mean, the stuff that people think of, and I know Google is also thinking of doing something similar.
所以对我来说，谢谢你提供这个观点。
So that to me, thank you for offering that.
这是最合乎逻辑的解释。
That is the most logical explanation.
好吧。
Alright.
我们就停在这里吧。
Let's end on this.
这个SpaceX的IPO，一旦发生，将会是巨大的。
This IPO SpaceX IPO, when it happens, it's gonna be massive.
我的意思是，这在某种程度上是不是一种测试？因为我觉得它可能会是有史以来最大的IPO。
I mean, is this, you know, in some ways, a test for because it will be the I I imagine it'll be the biggest IPO ever.
这会不会成为一个案例，展示即使是在完全不同的行业，当AI公司决定上市时，会是什么样子？
Is this going to be a test case for what it will look like even though it's completely different industry for what it what it will look like when the AI companies decide to go public?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我们听到的消息是，SpaceX可能融资500亿美元，估值达到1.5万亿美元。
I mean, we're hearing 50 potentially raising 50,000,000,000 at a 1,500,000,000,000.0 valuation.
这将真正检验全球市场是否能够吸收如此庞大的资金。
It'll be a real test whether the global markets can absorb this.
我的意思是，现在很多人迫切想投资这些热门的私营公司，比如Stripe、SpaceX和Anthropic，你甚至可以通过各种途径间接获得投资机会。
I mean, one of the people are desperate to invest in all these hot private companies like Stripe and SpaceX and Anthropic, and you can kinda get exposure to it by hook and by crook.
但真正的转折点在于，如果埃隆那些多年来一直推高特斯拉股价的线上粉丝，也能成为SpaceX的粉丝，那么你就能接触到比以往大得多的流动性和资本池。
But the real game changer would be if Elon's army of online fans who have propped up the Tesla share price for years become SpaceX fans as well, because then you just have access to pools of liquidity and capital so much larger than what they've ever had access to in the past.
所以我认为，如果马斯克能通过SpaceX的IPO证明，不仅养老基金，还有Robinhood、Revolut或其他任何让你用个人资金投资的平台，都存在巨大的散户需求，那将意义重大。
So I think if Musk can show through the SpaceX IPO that there's huge retail demand out there through either pension funds, but also Robinhood or Revolut or whoever else you can invest your personal cash.
这可能会成为一个真正的转折点，因为它会让其他那些还不太成熟的初创公司有信心，知道它们上市时不会遭遇灾难性失败。
That could be a real game changer because that would give the rest of these, the startups that are less mature companies, the confidence that they're not going to go out there and have a real disaster.
因为请记住，比上市后股价下跌、员工士气低落更糟糕的事情不多了——他们原本以为自己的股票值这么多，结果却发现实际价值远低于预期。
Because remember this, there are a few things worse than listing, seeing your stock price decline, having all of your staff demoralized because they thought they were they thought their stock was worth this and it's in fact worth that.
然后你就得在外面，让聚光灯照在你的资产负债表上。
And then be out there, you know, with cleaglights being shown on your balance sheet.
在你真正建立起净利润之前，保持私有状态其实可以非常舒适。
Like, it's a it can be a very comfortable thing to be private before you really have established net income.
我们拭目以待。
So we'll see.
我的意思是，如果真如我们所听说或报道的那样，它在六月进行，那这个夏天将会是绝对的重磅盛事。
I mean, it's gonna if it does go ahead in June, which we're led to believe or have reported out that it will be, it's gonna be an absolutely blockbuster summer.
是的，这将非常值得一看。
Yeah, it'll be fascinating to watch.
好了，史蒂文，告诉大家他们在哪里可以找到你的工作以及你团队的作品。
Alright, Steven, tell people where they can find your work and the work of your team.
《金融时报》当然是这些传统媒体机构之一。
Well, the Financial Times is obviously, you know, one of these legacy media instruments.
我们既有印刷版报纸，那醒目的鲑鱼粉颜色，非常容易辨认。
We do print and newspaper, Salmon Pink, very recognizable.
但你应该去 ft.com。
But you should go to ft.com.
我们在 Instagram、X 等所有平台都有身影。
We're all over Instagram, X, wherever.
我们在这里旧金山有个很棒的团队，希望你们有很多订阅者在观看这个节目。
We've a great team here in San Francisco, so I hope you have a lot of subscribers watching this show.
好的。
Alright.
太棒了。
Well, love it.
我总是很喜欢读你的作品，能再次在节目中和你交谈真的非常棒。
I I always love reading your work, and it's really great to be able to speak with you again here on the show.
所以，史蒂芬·莫里斯，非常感谢你做客节目。
So Stephen Morris, thank you so much for coming on.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thank you for having me.
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
感谢收听和观看，我们下次再见于《大科技播客》。
Thank you for listening and watching, and we will see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.
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