谁在AI竞赛中领先？+ 软件的未来 —— 与Sridhar Ramaswamy对话

当然。

Absolutely.

许多功能将存在于复杂的应用程序中。

It's going to be the case that there's a lot of functionality that sits in complex applications.

我们正在积极与所有这些公司合作，无论是ServiceNow、Salesforce还是SAP，我们与它们都有重要的合作关系，共同打造这一智能代理的未来。

We're actively working with all of those folks, whether it's a ServiceNow or a Salesforce or SAP with whom we have a big partnership in creating this agentic future together.

智能代理的未来，正如我所说，将涵盖过去、现在、未来和行动。

Agentic future is very much going to be, what I said, past, present, future, and actions.

因此，我们认为我们非常有可能成为这一工作开展的平台。

And so we think we stand a very, very good chance of being the platform where this work happens.

但正如我所说，这是一场赛跑，关键在于为客户提供快速的价值。

But as I said, it's a footrace, and it's all about creating value really fast for your customers.

我不会轻易断言谁一定会赢，或者谁一定会输。

And I would shy shy away from x is going to win or y is going to win.

最终获胜的公司将是那些具备强大能力，同时花时间弄清楚如何为客户创造价值的公司。

The the companies that are going to win are the ones that have great capabilities, but also take the time to figure out how to create value for their customers.

我们今天是2月4日星期三在交谈。

We're speaking on Wednesday, February 4.

这将会推迟一周。

This is going to go a week later.

但本周发生了一件有趣的事，我觉得我们应该聊聊，就是当我问你这个问题时，你提出了一个非常有意思的观点：我们不希望成为别人软件的输入端。

But there was an interesting thing that just happened this week that I think we should talk about, which is you made such an interesting point where when I asked you about this, you said, Listen, we do not want to be an input into somebody else's software.

而就在过去几天，Anthropic发布了法律领域的插件。

And this week, Anthropic released or within the most recent days, Anthropic released a legal plug in.

这个消息传开后，汤森路透的股价似乎经历了历史上最糟糕的一天。

And the market got wind of this, and then all of a sudden, Thomson Reuters I think it had its worst day on the market in history.

像LegalZoom这样的股票也直线下跌。

Stocks like LegalZoom just dropped like a rock.

我一直在思考为什么会这样，毕竟这只是Anthropic发布的一个法律插件。

And I was trying to think through why this could be because it was just one legal plug in from Anthropic.

可能的视角是，随着生成式AI的发展，某些软件可能会从你执行任务的平台，转变为其他东西。

And the perspective might be that with generative AI, there is a risk that some software shifts from being the place you do the things.

LexisNexis，你在那里面做研究，作为某个平台的输入。

LexisNexis, you do the research there to an input into a platform.

如果是这样，我认为市场所想的是，你失去了之前拥有的控制权。

And if that's the case, I think what the market is thinking is that you lose that control that you had.

你变成了一个平台中的功能，而不是平台本身。

You become a feature in a platform as opposed to the platform itself.

这就是风险所在。

That's the risk.

这是一个非常现实的风险。

It's a very real risk.

我认为，那些曾经对自己的地位充满信心，因为他们本质上是数据和功能的封闭花园，却在提供现代信息处理方式上行动迟缓的企业，将在这样的世界中举步维艰。

I think people that were confident about their position in the world because they were essentially walled gardens for data and functionality, and are slow at providing modern ways of dealing with information are going to struggle in this world.

这正是我强调我们必须身体力行地践行我们所倡导的AI、智能代理平台和未来工作理念的原因——因为如果你不亲身体验，你就无法真正理解它。

This is the reason that I stress us living by what we speak in terms of AI and agentic platforms and this future of work concept precisely because unless you live it, you don't actually feel it.

如果你不亲身体验、不真正感受它，你就无法帮助你的客户走向未来。

And unless you live it and feel it, you're not going to help your customers get there.

我认为那些依赖锁定效应受益的利基SaaS软件提供商。

I think niche SaaS software providers that basically benefited from lock in.

你想想看。

And think about it.

如果你在用某个SaaS软件，通过浏览器登录了，想把数据拿回来？那简直难如登天。

If you use a piece of SaaS software, logged into it on your browser, God help you if you want your data back.

根本不可能办到。

Just like not going to happen.

是的。

Yep.

当前这个时刻揭示的是，这种状态非常危险，许多这类公司有沦为模型底层笨重后端的风险，这正是Snowflake如此积极拥抱智能代理AI、践行我们所倡导理念的原因——因为价值将在这里被创造出来。

What this current moment is pointing out is that that's a very dangerous place to be, and a lot of these players risk becoming dumb backends to the models, which is why Snowflake is so leaning forward on agentic AI and living by what we speak because that's the place where value is going to get created.

市场在软件估值方面似乎根本不知道自己在做什么。

The market doesn't really seem to know what it's doing when it comes to software.

它似乎完全不知道该如何在当下评估软件的价值。

It doesn't really seem to know how to value software in this moment.

这是来自莉兹·托马斯的。

This is from Liz Thomas.

她说，软件的未来十二个月市盈率从33.1压缩到了23.2，跌幅达30%，这很惊人，因为软件之所以获得高估值，正是因为它本身的价值。

She says, software's forward twelve month price to equity ratio has compressed from 33.1 to 23.2, multiple contraction of 30%, which is wild because software gets these big valuations because of what it is.

再来看另一个数据。

Here's another stat.

这是塔莉亚·戈德堡的SAS指数。

SAS index from Talia Goldberg.

尽管大多数公司都达到了或超过了预期，而市场整体上涨了15%，SAS指数却同比下跌了32%。

SAS index is down 32% year over year despite most companies meeting or beating plans while the markets are up 15%.

你认为市场在这里的反应是什么？

What do you think the market's reaction is here?

是不是因为你之前请了布雷特·泰勒来谈过？

Is it just you had Brett Taylor on.

他说，这纯粹是因为不确定谁会胜出。

He said it was just kind of the uncertainty of who wins.

这是你的看法吗？

Is that your perspective?

或者你认为，为什么尽管塔莉亚提到这些公司都达到了或超过了盈利预期，它们的股价却仍在下跌，估值倍数也在收缩？

Or why do you think, despite like like, you know, Talia is saying here, the the fact that these companies are beating their earnings expectations, they're still getting hammered and the multiples are contracting.

这里有几点我们需要考虑。

There are a few things that we should take into consideration here.

正如你所知，公司的估值不是基于它们今天的表现，而是基于它们未来的潜力。

As you know, companies are valued not on what they're doing today, but on what they're going to do in the future.

我实际上想区分像Snowflake这样的数据平台和纯软件提供商的订阅模式。

And I would actually distinguish data platforms like Snowflake from pure software providers operating on a subscription model.

这并不是说订阅模式不好，但它们的运作方式是，AI成了另一个推动因素，客户不得不注册AI产品，无论这些产品是否创造了实际价值。

Not that it's a bad model, but the way they have operated is AI became another skew for these folks, and customers have had to sign up for AI products regardless of whether they created value or not.

这已经成为成为AI原生企业的首选方式。

That's sort of become the favored way of becoming AI native.

我认为当前的状况揭示了一个真正的风险：这种策略并非成功的AI战略，也就是说，工作并不会通过在你使用的某个SaaS应用上与聊天机器人互动来完成。因此，我们的愿景是，智能代理基于一个数据平台运行，该平台拥有大量客户已有的历史分析洞察，同时还能通过MCP和其他API集成，与其它系统进行交互。

I think what the current moment points to is a real risk that that is not a winning AI strategy, meaning that work is not going to get done by interacting with a chatbot on a particular SaaS app that you used, which is why our our vision of agents operating on a data platform that has much of the analytic insights about the past, as a lot of our customers do, but with the ability to bring in integrations via MCP, via other APIs for how do you talk to other systems.

我认为这是令人信服的愿景。

I think that's the compelling vision.

我认为，如果公司既能对未来工作方式提出令人信服的愿景，又能切实说明如何帮助客户快速实现目标，它们就会获胜。

I think companies are going to win if they have both a convincing vision for how work gets done in the future, but are able to back it up with, and here is how we help you, the customer, get it done fast.

模型制造商的观点是，模型就是一切，其他都不重要。

The model makers approach it from the from this view of the model is everything and nothing else matters.

我们的视角则是，整个体验才是关键。

We approach it from the viewpoint of it's the entirety of the experience.

它就是模型。

It's the model.

这就是为什么我们与这些公司合作。

That's why we partner with all of these folks.

最宝贵的是对公司至关重要的数据，但真正推动工作完成的，是与运营系统的集成。

It's the most critical data that's valuable to your company, but it's also integrations with the operational systems that really help get work done.

我认为，这才是市场对工作如何完成的真正令人信服的愿景。

I think that's the compelling vision for how work gets ready, what the markets are.

在某些方面，将AI作为SaaS软件的附加功能来定价，并不是一个成功的策略。

In some ways, pricing is the fact that AI as a bolt on to SaaS software does not feel like a winning strategy.

你知道，我对我们现在所提出的路径感觉好多了。

You know, I feel much better about the path that we are pitching.

此外，我们的产品是按使用量计费的，这意味着如果某些功能使用得少，也不会因为构建和使用它们而产生额外成本。

Also, our products are consumption based, meaning that if something doesn't get used as much, there's not a penalty to, like, to just building them and and using them as much as you want.

但我想问一下，既然我们有了这个对话，人们会因为所有数据都在Snowflake上而选择使用Snowflake代理，从而体验我们讨论过的各种用例，这真的有吸引力吗？

But can I ask, as we've had this conversation, the idea that people would come to a Snowflake agent, because all their data is there, so they can go through all these use cases that we talked about, and that's compelling?

但为什么这不会最终被一个整合了不仅仅是Snowflake数据、而是所有其他数据的主代理所取代呢？

But why doesn't that just end up getting subsumed into some master agent that has not just not just the Snowflake data, but everything else?

它可以。

It can.

这确实是我们需要警惕的一种担忧。

That's very much a fear that we need to operate with.

这正是当前时机所带来的巨大机遇。

That's very much the opportunity of the moment.

是的

Mhmm.

好吧？

Okay?

大型科技公司希望打造一个世界，在这个世界中，所有企业的数据都能轻松获取。

The big Marvel makers want to create a world in which all of the data for all of the enterprises is easily available to them.

通过类似JCPT的东西吗？

Through, like, a JCPT?

是的，通过它。

Through yes.

或者通过Gemini。

Or a Gemini.

我，还有世界上的一切，都只是向那个大脑输送数据的普通数据通道。

I I and, you know, everything else, the world, is just a dumb data pipe that feeds into that big brain.

这就是他们希望实现的愿景。

That's the vision that they would like to see come true.

而我希望实现的愿景是，嘿。

And the vision that I would like to see come true is, hey.

我们为每家公司托管最重要的数据和最重要的预测模型，我可以创建能够带来显著价值的智能代理。

We host the most important data for every company and the most important predictive models for every company, and I can create, agents that can deliver substantial value.

但顺便说一句，我们也像其他人一样，采取了互操作性策略。

But by the way, we also follow, like others do, an interoperability strategy.

因为如果客户过来 saying，我想在 Snowflake 上构建一个数据产品，没问题。

Because if a customer comes and says, I wanna build a data product on Snowflake, fine.

它可以有一个人工智能接口，但我真的希望它能在其他地方也能访问。

It can have an AI interface, but I really want it to be accessible somewhere else.

我不能对此说不。

I don't get to say no to that.

是的。

Mhmm.

唯一能获胜的人，是那些有效满足客户需求的人。

The only people that win are the ones that effectively deliver what customers want.

对。

Right.

这会不会是未来几年科技领域的主要战场？

Is this gonna be the the big battlefield in technology over the next couple years?

我的意思是，我们甚至有一个例子。

I mean, we even had an example.

我认为是亚马逊曾强烈反对Perplexity抓取其网页内容。

I think it was Amazon who protested in a big way from having, I think, perplexity scrape its pages.

而且看起来这种情况会在消费领域发生，这是因为这是OpenAI和你们之间的对话吗？

And it seems like this is going to happen on consumer and this is gonna happen because this is this a conversation that OpenAI has with you?

嘿，斯里达har。

Hey, Sreedhar.

我们非常希望你们的所有数据都能在Chachapiti企业版中使用。

We'd love to have your you know, all your data available in Chachapiti enterprise.

我们坚持客户的选择。

We stick to customer choice.

客户想要什么？

What do customers want?

对。

Right.

如果客户希望通过Snowflake智能代理访问数据，OpenAI团队不会拒绝。

If they want to access data through a Snowflake Intelligence agent, the OpenAI doesn't team doesn't say no.

另一方面，如果我们的客户希望将他们拥有的重要企业数据通过MCP端点暴露给ChatGPT。

If on the other hand, our customers want to expose, you know, data, like, important enterprise data that they have as an MCP endpoint into ChatGPT.

也不能说不。

Don't get to say no.

那么，像你这样职位的软件公司究竟有多少自主权呢？

Then how much agency does a software company actually have, like one in your position?

因为如果一切都由客户决定

Because if it is up to customers

关键是创造产品和价值。

It's all about creating products and value.

这并不是说谁拥有不可逾越的ChatGPT优势，OpenAI并不能决定你只有通过ChatGPT才能获得5.2。

It's not about any one no one has an insurmountable ChatGP like, OpenAI doesn't get to say the only way you get 5.2 is to come to ChatGPT.

对。

Right.

我也没法说，你只有通过Snowflake Intelligence才能访问Snowflake上的数据。

I don't get to say the only way you get to access data on Snowflake is to come to Snowflake Intelligence.

这有点偏离了。

It's a little bit off.

这基本上是优胜劣汰，关键在于创造价值。

It's pretty much may the best player win, and so it's very much about creating value.

而你所承担的负担是巨大的，因为如果人们要去使用一个专用机器人，而不是一个中心化的机器人。

And the burden that you have is is large because if people are gonna go to, like, a specialized bot as opposed to a centralized bot.

这个专用机器人必须比中心化机器人有用好几个数量级，因为它要求用户改变行为习惯。

That specialized bot has to be, you know, orders of magnitude more useful because it's requiring a different behavior.

或者也许我错了。

Or maybe I'm wrong.

也许吧，也许不。

Maybe maybe maybe not.

这就是关键所在。

I it's this is the part.

现在还非常早期。

It's very, very early.

记住，我们仍然生活在一个世界里，我不知道你开了多少个标签页，亚历克斯。

And remember, we are still living in a world I don't know how many tabs you have open, Alex.

我这里有200个。

Mine is 200.

好的。

Okay.

这就是我世界的现状。

That's the state of my world.

这已经很不错了。

That's pretty good.

我有太多标签了，根本看不清标签名。

And I have enough that I can't read the tab names.

我会把

I'll put

如果你用Chrome，按Command+Shift+A是解决所有问题的神奇方法，但还是。

it Command shift a if you use Chrome is magic answer to all problems, but still.

所以我觉得现在还早。

And so I think it's early.

是的。

Yeah.

当你的股价被市场裹挟时，它就会说：这个品类必须这样做。

When your stock price gets caught up in the market, it says category.

这个品类必须这样做。

This category must do this.

你的股价被市场裹挟了。

Your stock price gets caught up.

作为CEO，你是如何管理这一点的？

How do you manage that as a CEO?

因为看到市场根据类别而非单个公司做出反应，这在某种程度上一定让人沮丧。

Because it must be in some ways frustrating to see that, like, the market acts on categories versus individual companies.

我的职责是让我们脱颖而出。

It's my job to make us stand up.

我的职责是确保我们的前景清晰明确。

It's my job to make sure that our prospects are clear.

我的职责是确保我们的公司加速前进，抓住当下这一刻，并开展这些对话。

It's my job to make sure that our company accelerates to seize the moment that is today and come have these come have these conversations.

是的。

Yes.

市场正在对我们所掌握的最佳信息做出反应。

The markets are reacting to the best information that we have.

如果我们被归入其他SaaS软件提供商一类，那就说明我还有更多工作要做。

If we get clubbed with other SaaS software providers, that tells you that I have more work to do.

没关系。

That's fine.

对。

Yep.

好的。

Okay.

我想和你谈谈ShadowAI，以及人们如何开始自行构建自己的AI程序。

I want to talk to you about ShadowAI and how people are individuals are starting to build their own AI programs.

过去几周我们已经看到了很多这种情况。

We've seen that a lot over the past couple weeks.

是的。

Yeah.

所以广告结束后我们回来继续谈这个。

So let's do that when we come back right after this.

开始一件新事情并不只是困难。

Starting something new isn't just hard.

这令人恐惧。

It's terrifying.

为这件事投入了如此多的努力，而你却不敢确定它是否能成功，要迈出这一步确实很难。

So much work goes into this thing that you're not entirely sure will work out, and it can be hard to make that leap of faith.

当我刚开始做这个播客时，我不确定是否有人会听。

When I started this podcast, I wasn't sure if anyone would listen.

现在我知道这是个正确的选择。

Now I know it was the right choice.

当你有像Shopify这样的合作伙伴支持你时，这也会有所帮助。

It also helps when you have a partner like Shopify on your side to help.

Shopify是全球数百万企业的电商平台，占美国所有电子商务的10%。

Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all ecommerce in The US.

从Allbirds和Cotopaxi这样的知名品牌，到刚刚起步的新品牌。

From household names like Allbirds and Cotopaxi to brands just getting started.

凭借数百个即用型模板，Shopify帮助你打造一个与你品牌风格一致的精美在线商店。

With hundreds of ready to use templates, Shopify helps you build a beautiful online store that matches your brand style.

你还可以像拥有一个营销团队一样轻松传播信息，随时随地为你的客户创建电子邮件和社交媒体活动，无论他们是在刷手机还是散步。

You can also get the word out like you have a marketing team behind you, easily create email and social media campaigns wherever your customers are scrolling or strolling.

现在是时候用 Shopify 将那些‘如果’变成现实了。

It's time to turn those what ifs into with Shopify today.

立即前往 shopify.com/bigtech 注册每月仅需 1 美元的试用。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial at shopify.com/bigtech.

前往 shopify.com/bigtech。

Go to shopify.com/bigtech.

就是 shopify.com/bigtech。

That's shopify.com/bigtech.

让我跟你聊聊我的合作伙伴 NordVPN。

Let me tell you about my partners at NordVPN.

如果你想要观看你所在地区无法提供的体育赛事、电视剧或电影，可以通过 NordVPN 切换虚拟位置到正在播放该内容的国家来实现。

If you ever wanna watch sporting events, TV shows, or films that aren't available in your region, You can do it by switching your virtual location to a country which is showing that content with NordVPN.

NordVPN 还能在你旅行时，无论身处世界哪个角落，帮助你保护在使用公共 Wi-Fi 时的数据安全。

NordVPN also helps you protect your data while traveling and using public Wi Fi wherever you are in the world.

这是世界上最快的VPN，观看流媒体时不会出现缓冲或卡顿。

It's the fastest VPN in the world with no buffering or lagging while you stream.

NordVPN在全球118个国家拥有7400多个服务器，轻松切换虚拟位置。

NordVPN has 7,400 plus servers across 118 countries with easy virtual location switching.

它支持最多10台设备，而且速度很快。

It supports up to 10 devices, and it's fast.

要获得NordVPN计划的最佳折扣，请访问nordvpn.com/bigtech。

To get the best discount off your NordVPN plan, go to nordvpn.com/bigtech.

通过我们的链接，你还可以在两年计划上额外获得四个月服务。

Our link will also give you four extra months on the two year plan.

NordVPN提供30天无风险退款保证。

There's no risk with Nord's thirty day money back guarantee.

链接也在播客节目描述框中。

The link is in the podcast episode description box as well.

我们回到Big Technology播客，邀请到Snowflake的首席执行官Sridhar Ramaswamy。

And we're back here on big technology podcast with Sridhar Ramaswamy, CEO of Snowflake.

Sridhar，很高兴你来参加节目。

Sridhar, great to have you on the show.

谢谢你再次光临。

Thank you for coming back.

聊天总是很愉快。

Always great to chat.

当人们开始在自己的电脑上运行各种代理，做些疯狂事情的时候，你对此有什么看法？

What did you think when this open clock call bot molt molt bot moment happened when people started running all their own agents on their on their computers and doing crazy things?

我希望他们没有在自己的电脑上运行这些程序。

Well, I hope they were not running them on their own computers.

但是

But

是的。

Yes.

即便如此。

Still.

somewhere，他们的API密钥被泄露了。

Somewhere and got their API keys exposed.

没错。

Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

不。

No.

我认为，所有的安全规则并不会因为AI的出现而消失。

I think, all rules of security don't vanish because of because because of AI.

这很了不起。

It's remarkable.

我很幸运，我有两个年轻的儿子，都在从事软件行业，因此我能通过他们的眼睛来看这个世界。

I'm fortunate in that I had two young sons who are both in software, and, you know, I get to see the world through their eyes.

结果，他从纽约搬到旧金山后，有一个星期二之前的一天空档期。

And as it turns out, one of them had one day between when he came to San Francisco from he moved from New York and when he started his job on Tuesday.

嗯。

Mhmm.

就在那一天，当我上班时，他在家，竟然在AWS上搭建了一个与所有其他设备（包括他的笔记本电脑）完全隔离的Ubuntu实例。

And in that one day, when I was at work and he was home, he had managed to get, like, you know, an Ubuntu instance on AWS completely separate from everything else, including his laptop.

谢天谢地。

Thank god.

他还在上面设置了OpenClaw作为他的个人AI助手，它自带一些功能，比如Telegram集成。

And he had set up OpenClaw on it as his personal AI assistant, and, it comes with things like, Telegram integrations.

你可以和它对话。

You can talk to it.

他开始用它来管理待办事项，并且还设置了一个小聊天机器人，给我汇总X平台上有趣的AI动态，因为我跟他说过，X平台信息太杂了。

He started using it as his to do list, and he had set up a little chatbot for giving me a summary of cool AI happenings on x because I told him, like, x can be a lot.

我不喜欢花太多时间在上面。

I don't like to spend that much time on it.

但我还是想了解重要的内容。

I still want to get what's important.

所以我每天都会收到由聊天机器人提供的AI领域最新动态简报。

So I get, like, a briefing every day of cool things happening in AI done entirely by the chatbot.

告诉他别把这件事放在优先级第一位，否则我可能会出问题。

Tell him not to prioritize that because I I could be in trouble if he does.

我没事。

I'm okay.

我觉得他花了几个小时就完成了。

I think it took all of a few hours Yeah.

他完成这件事花了不了多久。

For him to do that.

来搭建这个简报。

To build this newsletter.

但有趣的是，他搭建了整个独立运行的系统，能够真正回应他提出的任何问题。

And but funnily enough, he was oh, to build the entire self contained working thing that can literally react to any question that he has.

如果他喊一声，嘿。

If he if he says, hey.

我有个爱好，需要你帮我提升这项技能，它会每天给他发消息，告诉他该怎么做才能学会新技能。

I have this hobby, and I need you to help me get better at this hobby, it'll start sending him messages every day about what should he do to, like, learn a new skill.

太棒了。

Amazing.

这种通用性真的真的令人震惊。

The general purpose nature of this is truly truly mind blowing.

他花了几个小时就设置好了。

Took him a few hours to set up.

是的。

Yep.

这正是这个时代的奇妙之处。

That's the wildness of the moment.

但有趣的是，他才26岁，当时他说，是的。

But funnily enough, he's 26, and he was like, yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我不想参与这个所谓的烟书事情。

I want no part of this smoke book thing.

我觉得这都是炒作。

I think it's a bunch of hype.

我觉得实际上是有人假扮成代理在发这些内容。

I think it's actually people posing as, you know, as agents that are posting this.

你也不想参与那件事。

You wanted no part of that.

所以这样挺好。

And so it's it's fine.

我觉得这在某种程度上是一个了不起的时刻，关于外面正在发生的事情。

I think it's a remarkable moment in terms of, you know, in terms of what is happening out there.

但我确实认为，随着这些代理或代理框架变得越来越容易使用和设置，人们会逐渐摸索出一套安全防护措施来规范其使用方式，诸如此类。

But I do think that you're seeing what happens as these agents or, you know, agent frameworks become easier and easier to use and set up, and people will figure out a set of security guard guardrails for how to use that and, and and things like that.

我认为，这确实是一个非常了不起的时刻。

This is I think, it's it's a pretty remarkable moment.

是的。

Yeah.

Motebook拥有17.5万篇帖子和110万条评论，作为专为AI机器人打造的社交网络，截至我们对话时已具备如此规模。

Motebook, a 175,000 posts, 1,100,000 comments as of it's the social network for the AI bots as of the time we're speaking.

所以我不认为这一切完全由人类完成，如果真是人类操作，那这个正在崛起的社交网络已经相当成功了。

So I don't think it's entirely I mean, if that's entirely human, it's a pretty successful social network on the rise.

它在一周内就做到了这一点。

So it's done that in a week.

非常有趣。

Pretty interesting.

你年初做了一些预测，其中几个特别引起了我的注意。

You made some predictions ahead of the year, and one of them really stood out to a couple of them stood out to me.

我们可以聊聊这两个。

We could talk about them both.

但我觉得特别有趣的是，你提到ShadowAI将自下而上推动企业采用。

But one of them that I found really interesting was you said ShadowAI will drive enterprise adoption from the bottom up.

员工自行选择的免费AI工具仍将是2026年企业AI采用的主要驱动力。

Employees who select their own free AI tools will will remain the primary driver of enterprise AI adoption in 2026.

与其等待IT部门批准官方产品，员工们已经在日常工作中使用ChatGPT、Claude和其他消费级AI工具，迫使企业不得不追赶。

Rather than waiting for IT departments to sanction approved products, workers are using ChatGPT, Claude, and other consumer AI tools for their daily work, forcing organizations to catch up.

我觉得这太有意思了。

I think that's so interesting.

这其实也是我以前在节目中讨论过的话题，似乎存在两条并行的路径：一些公司行动缓慢、迟迟不采纳这些工具，而个人却已经开始找到在工作中使用它们的方法。

And it's something that I've talked about on the show before, how it seems like there's these two tracks, companies that are kind of slow to move and adopt these tools and individuals that are starting to find ways to use them in their work.

首先，你认为为什么会这样？

Why do you think that is, first of all?

我的意思是，任何在中等规模公司待过的人都知道，那里充满了审批流程、律师和试点项目。

I mean, anyone who's been inside a even moderately sized company knows that it's filled with approvals and lawyers and pilots.

我有个更简单的答案。

I have a simpler answer.

对。

Yes.

这是当下真正的十倍速突破。

It's the true 10 x ing of the moment.

同样地，像Cortex Code这样的工具，你可以完成在Snowflake上需要做的工作。

Same with about the how, with something like a Cortex code, you can get a job that you need to do on Snowflake.

比如，处理数据很难。

Like, working with data is tough.

这很枯燥。

It's tedious.

是的。

Yep.

你必须确保很多事都做对，很多细微的细节。

You have to get lots of things right, a lot of little details.

可以使用我们的命令行工具，自动化这些工作，将耗时缩短到原来的十分之一以下。

Can use our CLI and just automate this stuff and get it done in less than a tenth of the time it would have otherwise have taken you.

对。

Right.

这太惊人了。

That is remarkable.

我现在会写文档了。

And I now write documents.

这是使用我们官方批准的企业版聊天机器人完成的。

This is with our officially approved enterprise version of our chatbots.

我会根据与这些聊天机器人的对话撰写立场文件。

I write position papers coming out of dialogues that I have with these chatbots.

我会说，情况是这样的。

I say, this is the situation.

这是我的想法。

These are my thoughts.

这些是选项。

These are the options.

你觉得怎么样？

What do you think?

你几乎会经历一个苏格拉底式的辩论过程，讨论各种问题，并产出看起来非常精良的结果。

You sort of go through almost a Socratic process of debating stuff and producing something that looks mighty polished.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但如果我完全在聊天机器人内部完成了定价研究，对吧。

But if I've done pricing studies entirely inside chatbots Right.

我们需要调整价格。

We have to change prices.

你信任它们吗？

You trust them?

因为有时候当我让它们算一下数字时，比如。

Because sometimes when I, like, ask them do the numbers okay.

我从来没有完全接受过任何编码代理的全部建议。

I I never I am I have never ever run a coding agent with accept all my recommendations.

好的。

Okay.

我可是最较真的人之一。

I am as anal as they come.

好的。

Okay.

我刚开始使用我们的编码代理时，第一条规则就是：绝不能删除数据，永远不要删除数据库。

My first rules when I started using our coding agent was never delete a data never ever delete a database.

永远不要切换账户，因为我可以访问包含Snowflake数据的生产系统。

Never ever switch an account because I have access to production systems that have Snowflake data.

当我随便折腾别的东西时，别让我切换到那个账户。

I'm like, don't switch to it when I'm playing around with something else.

你得设置好安全限制。

You got to put the guardrails.

你得聪明地工作。

You gotta be smart about how you work.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

你得检查工作。

And you gotta check the work.

对。

Right.

所以当我做定价研究时，嘿。

And so when I did the pricing studies, like, hey.

帮我屏蔽这个。

Block this for me.

收入和利润会怎么变化？

How does revenue and margin change?

她得去研究工作。

She gotta go study the work.

但这是一种巨大的加速器，像这样的工具带来的好处，与手写文档不同的是，假设你决定改变主意，想引入另一个新东西。

But it's a massive accelerant, and the benefit that you get from something like this, unlike a handwritten doc, is let's say you decide to change your mind and want to introduce another new thing.

通常，我们不会在文档或研究中这样做，因为要做出所有修改实在太繁琐了。

You know, normally, we just don't do that in a document or a study because it's so tedious to go make all the changes.

这些聊天机器人不会感到厌倦。

These chatbot, they don't get bored.

它们会说：‘你想重做这份工作？’

They're like, you want to redo this work?

没问题。

Not a problem.

它们会为你重新做一遍。

They redo the work for you.

我认为正是这种价值创造推动了它的普及。

I think it's that value creation that's driving the adoption.

而且我们实际上正变得更加愿意接受它，因为我们知道，我们更希望拥有具备企业控制功能的工具，而不是让一切都在暗地里进行。

And it's mostly we are actually trying to be a lot more receptive to this because we know that we would rather have a tool with enterprise controls than just have everything go underground.

所以它运作得相当不错。

And so it's it's it's worked pretty well.

而且很多公司也在像Snowflake这样的平台上更快地批准AI政策，远比以前快，因为他们都迫切渴望这种价值创造。

And I might and most companies are also doing things like approve AI policies on top of Snowflake, for example, a lot quicker than what they have what they would have done before because it is that value creation that they're all hung hungering for.

对。

Right.

但我

But I

我认为关键是，这也是你的预测，我们可以深入探讨一下。

think the thing is and and mean, this is your prediction, so we can go deeper into it.

是个人层面的效率提升了十倍吗？

Is that individuals, is it a 10x ing of the moment?

我会说，是的，这些应用中确实存在显著的价值。

I would say, yeah, there's definitely value to be found in these applications.

但有趣的是，是个人在发现这项技术，并以你所说的‘影子AI’方式使用它，而公司则相对行动缓慢。

But it is interesting that it's the individual, and maybe this is normal, the individuals are finding this technology and doing it in a way that you describe as shadow AI, where companies are a little bit slower to move.

那么，如果公司里有几个人完全投入这些工具，而公司却说‘是的’，这会如何改变公司的动态呢？

So how does that change the dynamic of companies if you have a couple of people in there that are leaning all the way into the tools and the company is like, yeah.

我们正在逐步推进这件事。

We're in we're working through this.

每个公司都需要弄清楚如何拥抱这些变革推动者，确保他们所追求的价值能被所有人看到。

Well, part of what every company has to do is to figure out how to embrace these change agents and make sure that they're surfacing what they want to do and the value that they're getting to everyone.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我原本想把Cortex Code推广到我们整个解决方案工程团队，共两千人。

I wanted to roll out Cortex Code to the entirety of our solution engineering team, 2,000 people.

这是很多人。

It's a lot of people.

我们的方式是挑选其中一部分人，三十到四十人左右，给他们一些培训，然后说：‘你们去试试看，体验一下这是什么感觉。’

And the way we we did that was we selected a subset of them, over thirty, forty people, and gave them a little bit of training and said, hey, you should go try this out, see what this is like.

我们称他们为我们的AI倡导者。

We called them our AI champions.

我们庆祝了这些走在前沿的人，并且让他们有效地承担起向各个团队传播这一理念的责任。

We celebrated the fact that these were the forward leaning folks, and, we also made them effectively responsible for spreading the word down to the different, to the different teams.

任何大型公司的变革都不可能通过自上而下的命令实现。

Change in any large company is not going to come from top down mandates.

说实话吧。

You know, let's face it.

与我那9000名员工对AI的全部认知相比，我所了解的AI简直微不足道。

What I know about AI is minuscule compared to the sum totality of what my 9,000 people know about AI.

你需要创造一个环境，让那些最具前瞻性的想法和最具创新精神的人能够快速将他们的想法呈现出来。

And you need to create an environment in which the most progressive of the ideas that are coming up, the most innovative of the people, they have a way to quickly surface the idea up.

事实上，为了下一次全员大会，我一直在和我的公关团队合作。

In fact, for the next all hands, I've been working with my comms team.

那场大会几周后就要举行了。

It's in a it's in a few weeks.

他们希望保持我们例行的全员大会标准议程，与高管团队进行讨论。

They wanted to have, you know, our regular all hands standard set of discussions with the exec staff.

我说过，我想花两分钟亲自说一下，因为作为CEO，我有些话必须讲。

I said, I wanna spend two minutes personally because I have to say something as a CEO.

我希望其余的时间都用来发现这些富有激情的人，观察他们的做法，并将他们作为我们需要识别和学习的榜样加以突出。

I want the rest of the time to be devoted to finding these firebrands, looking at what they do, and highlighting this as the champions we need to figure out how to identify and how to learn from.

我们必须把握住这个时刻，思考如何运用我们的集体智慧来推动组织前进。

And we have to embrace the moment in terms of how do we use our collective wisdom to drive our organizations forward.

这非常有趣，因为随着这些工具变得越来越好，一些公司会具备这种思维，而另一些公司则可能有领导者完全不关心什么AI之类的东西。

It's very interesting because it seems like as these tools get better, there are going be companies that will have that mentality, and there'll probably be companies with leaders who are just like, I don't know about you know, all this AI stuff.

如果一个组织拥有更多授权，而另一个组织授权较少，这可能会迅速改变行业的竞争格局。

And it could actually change the competitive balance of industries pretty quickly if you have organizations with more permission versus less.

我更愿意将其区分为具有前瞻性的组织。

I would I would distinguish it more as progressive organizations.

好的。

Okay.

那意味着什么？

What does that mean?

我的意思是，我们始终需要保持平衡。

What what I mean by that is we always have to balance.

如果我发现有人在Snowflake笔记本上运行OpenClaw，我会发疯的。

I will flip out if I find out that anyone's running OpenClaw on a Snowflake laptop.

请不要这么做。

Please don't do that.

这不安全。

That's not safe.

如果你需要，我们会帮你免费申请一台AWS上的Ubuntu机器。

We will help you get, a free Ubuntu machine on AWS if you want.

有些事情是人们应该做的聪明事，有些则是不应该做的蠢事。

There are smart things that people should be doing and dumb things that they should not be doing.

一位具有前瞻性的安全负责人是非常宝贵的资产，他们允许创新。

A progressive head of security is an important asset here where they let the innovation Mhmm.

发生。是的。

Happen Yep.

而不让人们去做不安全的事情。

Without making people do unsafe things.

我们为世界上一些最有价值的公司保管数据，对此我们极其重视。

We are custodians of data for some of the most valuable companies in the world, and we take that part very, very seriously.

对。

Right.

因此，这种平衡正是我们需要的。

And so it is that balance that that one needs.

但回到你关于竞争格局变化的观点，这确实非常真实。

But back to your point about changing competitive dynamics, very, very, very real.

我想我们可以到这里结束了。

I think we can end here.

你还有一个关于科技巨头对AI模型控制力减弱的有趣预测。

You also have this interesting prediction about Big Tech's grip on AI models loosening.

我来念一小段。

I'll just read a little bit of it.

多年来，传统观点认为，只有少数几家科技巨头才负担得起构建有竞争力的AI模型。

For years, conventional wisdom held that only a handful of tech giants could afford to build competitive AI models.

到2026年，这种情况将发生变化。

In 2026, that will change.

像深度求索（DeepSeek）开发的新型训练方法表明，构建最大、最昂贵的模型并非实现强大性能的唯一途径。

New approaches to training like those developed by DeepSeek have shown that building the biggest, most expensive models isn't the only path to strong performance.

我们正好在这一年的节点上，时机太好了。

We're a year this is great timing.

我们距离深度求索（DeepSeek）的出现已经过去一年了。

We're a year after DeepSeek.

并没有像许多人预期的那样彻底改变AI行业。

Didn't fully change the AI industry in a way a lot of people anticipated.

是的。

Yep.

因此，看到你做出这样的预测很有趣，尤其是如果我没记错的话，Snowflake曾经尝试过构建一些基础模型，但最终决定这不是你们想参与的游戏。

And so it's interesting to see that that is the prediction you made, especially if I'm if because if I'm right, Snowflake did try to build some foundational models and then decided that was not the game you wanted to play.

我认为构建基础模型变得非常昂贵。

I think foundation models became very expensive to build.

我们现在有四个玩家在开发被广泛认为是顶尖水平的模型。

We now have four players that are creating models that are, like, wide while widely acknowledged to be the state of the art.

但昨天推出了一款新的Qwen模型，其性能与Anthropic的顶级Sonnet模型惊人地接近。

But a new Quen model came out yesterday that is shockingly close to the best Sonnet model that there is from, Anthropic.

这个领域持续涌现出大量创新。

There continues to be a lot of innovation in this space.

我认为这对我们的整体发展非常、非常健康。

I think that's very, very healthy for us.

从自私的角度来看，作为数据平台的Snowflake更倾向于一个有许多人开发优秀模型，尤其是开源模型的世界，因为我们自身也有非常出色的基础设施团队。

And from a selfish perspective, Snowflake as a data platform prefers a world in which there are many people making great models, especially open source models because we also have a really good infrastructure team.

我们在大规模运行这些模型方面非常出色。

We are very good at running them at at at scale.

但这是一个正在创造大量价值并发生巨大变革的领域。

But this is a role where a lot of value is being created and a lot of change is happening.

我认为，保持敏捷并为未来的智能代理和工作方式做好准备，同时始终聚焦于对客户真正重要的事情。

And I think being nimble and ready for that future of agent DKI, that future of work, while always having a laser focus on what makes a difference to your customer.

是的。

Mhmm.

这些是贯穿始终的持久品质。

Those are the enduring qualities through the year.

生活会持续变化。

Life will keep changing.

你对中国的开源模型感到放心吗？

You're comfortable with the Chinese open source models?

我们会测试它们。

So we test them.

我们会使用它们。

We use them.

我们试图向它们学习。

We try to we we try to learn from them.

我们还与致力于创建开源模型的美国公司合作。

We also partner with US companies that are trying to create open source models.

实际上有一家公司总部位于布鲁克林和旧金山，我们与他们合作。

There's actually a company that's based in in in Brooklyn and San Francisco that is that that that we work with.

是哪家公司？

Which one?

如果我没记错的话，是Reflection AI。

This if I remember this is Reflection AI.

好的。

Okay.

这是一家非凡的公司。

And it's a remarkable company.

我认为，如果我们没有一个强大的开源AI生态系统，就会错过很多东西。

I think there is a lot that we are missing out in not having a robust open AI ecosystem.

我们有时会陷入一种误区，认为我们拥有世界上最好的AI公司，但我们也应该意识到，这些公司的许多成果实际上已经与世界其他地区隔绝了。

We sometimes get caught up in this world of, you know, we have the best AI companies on the planet, but we also should understand that much of their work has effectively become walled off from the rest of the world.

你和我根本不知道OpenAI和Anthropic采用了什么技术来打造如此出色的模型。

You and I simply do not know what techniques OpenAI and Anthropic are adopting to produce the great models.

你可能会说，这有什么关系呢？

You can say, how does it matter?

比如，谷歌搜索在谷歌壮大之后，基本上就不再是学术界的研究领域了。

Google search, for example, pretty much died as an academic eater as an academic area after Google became big.

为什么？

Why?

他们什么都没公开。

They published nothing.

他们领先了所有人整整一百万英里。

And they were ahead of everyone else by a million miles.

这个想法就此消亡了。

Idea just died.

但从地缘政治角度看，这对我们来说没什么问题，因为谷歌是一家美国公司。

And that was okay for us geopolitically because Google was an American company.

我认为你所反应的这部分，是现在对开源的恐惧——这种恐惧并不在于开源本身，而在于一个没有明确胜者的情境中。

I think part of what you're reacting to is this fear now of open source is not here, but much more in in a situation where there is no winner.

目前发生的情况是，中国公司正在发布他们的研究成果。

What is happening right now is that it's the Chinese companies that are publishing their work.

于是，我们国家所有的大学、学生和教授都在研究他们的成果，并思考如何在此基础上进行改进。

And what then happens is all the universities, all the students and professors in our country are looking at their work and figuring out how to build on top of it.

因此，学术界正在与研究实验室的发展趋势逐渐脱节。

And so academia is diverging from what's happening in the research labs.

这正是当前时刻的危险之一，也是为什么我们需要构建一个更强大的生态系统的原因。

That's part of the danger of this moment, and that's the reason why we need to have a more robust ecosystem.

如果这个世界只有一个模型制造者，并且是一家美国公司，我想我们的态度会略有不同。

If it'd been if it had been a world in which there was one model maker that was a winner and there was an American company, I think we'd have a slightly different attitude.

现在很明显，这种情况不会发生，因此人们对开源模型产生了担忧。

It's very clear now that that's not going to happen, hence the fear about about open models.

而且，过去几周里，关于中国开源模型的讨论已经太多了。

And then if these you know, I think there's been such so much conversation about the Chinese open models over the past couple weeks.

你知道吗，我认为德米斯·哈萨比斯在新年伊始说过，西方比他们领先四个月，抱歉，是四年。

You know, I think Demis Hassabis said at the crack of the new year that the West is four years ahead sorry, four months ahead of them.

最近，有人讨论说，这个差距其实没那么大。

Recently, there's been some discussion that it's kind of closer than that.

那么，在这些模型与美国领先的基础模型持平的世界里，会发生什么？

So what happens in the world where, like, those models become on par with the leading US foundational models?

对我们大多数人来说，是的。

For most of us Yes.

这会带来很多机会。

It opens up lots of opportunity.

正如你所知，某事物的存在，甚至只是知道它的存在，就能激发其他领域的创新。

The as you know, the very existence of something, knowledge about the existence of something can spur innovation in other areas.

你甚至不需要确切知道别人做了什么。

You don't even have to know exactly what someone did.

历史已经多次证明了这一点。

This is history has shown this repeatedly.

仅仅知道某件事是可能的，就会让人们疯狂地努力去实现同样的事情。

Just knowing that something is possible makes people work feverishly on making the same thing happen.

你可以肯定，Reflection正在关注这一点，并想着：我们能做得更好。

You can bet that Reflection is looking at it and going, we can do better.

没错。

Right.

所以从宏观角度来看，我认为这实际上是一个积极因素，因为Mistral会设法逆向工程所有这些技术，并更进一步，这对欧洲是有利的。

So from a macro perspective, I would say that that is actually a positive because Mistral is going to figure out how to reverse engineer all of this stuff stuff and go one step forward, which will be good for Europe.

而Reflection也会在美國找到实现这一目标的方法。

And Reflection will figure out how to do this in The US.

这还将迫使Meta在美国做更多事情。

This will also force Meta to be doing more things in the in The US.

我觉得，从某种奇怪的角度来看，这对整个我们来说实际上是一个净收益。

I think in a weird way, that's actually a net positive for us as a whole.

我觉得这对模型公司的影响，则变得稍微模糊了一些。

I think the impact on the model companies, that becomes a little bit more little bit more murky.

但欢迎来到这个世界，亚历克斯。

But welcome to welcome to this world, Alex.

你知道，这就是科技。

You know This is tech.

每个月都在变化。

Change every month.

这是持续不断的。

It's constant.

网站是snowflake.com，斯特里特。

The website is snowflake.com, Streeter.

很高兴见到你。

So great to see you.

谢谢你专程过来。

Thank you for coming down.

谢谢你，亚历克斯。

Thank you, Alex.

每次对话都很精彩。

Always a great conversation.

确实如此。

Definitely.

真的很有意思。

Really is.

我们希望很快能再进行一次这样的交流。

We hope we can do this again soon.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

感谢收听和观看，我们下次再见于《大科技播客》。

Thank you for listening and watching, and we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.