谁赢得了AI超级应用之战？苹果的消费级AI胜利，世界杯自动化失误

对。

Mhmm.

他们能做出什么有意思的东西吗？

And can they do something interesting?

很明显，他们在打造大众消费产品方面是当之无愧的王者。

Obviously, they're they're the they're the kings when it comes to making wide usage consumer products.

所以，说他们没什么潜力，那简直是荒谬的。

And so it would seem like it would be silly folly to write them off in terms of what they can do.

你看了最近亚历山大·王那些采访吧？听上去他们快逼近自己所说的前沿模型了。

And, you know, you saw all the recent interviews with Alexander Wang and stuff talking about how they're it sounds like they're closing in on what they believe to be Frontier like versions of of their models.

这个。

The

我亲眼见到才会相信。

I believe that when I see it.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

但从产品角度来说，他们到底在做什么？

But what do they do from a product standpoint?

他们是怎么推出的？

How do they roll it out?

比如，Meta AI 现在有个应用。

Like, Meta AI right now has an app.

这挺奇怪的，因为它跟雷朋眼镜绑在一起，毕竟那是他们在消费市场里的切入点，也是他们目前的独特优势。

It's very weird because it's tied to the Ray Ban, you know, glasses thing because that's obviously their sort of toehold in in the general space and and a differentiator that they have right now.

但最终他们会推出什么？

But what do they end up rolling out?

他们试过类似 Sora 的东西，但全是假的，你知道的，假的 Sora。

Like, they've tried something that was sort of like Sora, but they did all fake, you know, fake stuff, Sora.

之前他们也试过其他几种 AI 方向，想让它落地，但都没能真正火起来。

And then, you know, they've tried a few other angles at at AI before and and making it work, but it hasn't taken off to that degree.

所以他们必须参与进来，毕竟他们的产品有几十亿用户，但说实话，目前他们还远远落后。

So they're in the conversation because they have to be because they have billions and billions of users across their products, but, you know, they're not they're not anywhere right now.

是的。

Yeah.

简单总结一下，这场竞争会非常有意思。我年底的时候和萨姆·阿尔特曼聊过这事，不知为啥，这话一直记在我心里。

Just to put a bow on this, it's gonna be a very and I spoke with Sam Altman about this at the end of year and for whatever reason it stuck with me.

这将是AI原生公司，比如OpenAI和Anthropic，和AI附加型公司，比如谷歌，之间的激烈较量。谷歌已经证明了自己能在模型能力上迎头赶上。

It's gonna be a very interesting competition between the AI native companies like the OpenAI's and Anthropic's and the AI bolt on companies like the Google where like Google has shown it can catch up in terms of capabilities of models.

不管Fable或者GPT 5.6推出什么新东西，谷歌迟早都会追上来。

It will inevitably catch up again to whatever Fable is and GPT 5.6 is.

关键问题是——就像你刚才说的，他们有没有这个胆量？就像他们在搜索里推出AI模式那样。

The question is and this is the point you made whether it will have the courage to you know, it did it with AI mode in search.

他们有没有胆量把Chrome彻底改造成一个以AI为核心的产品体验？

Will it have the courage to take Chrome and turn that into an AI first type of experience?

我觉得，最终他们会被逼着走上这条路。

And I think it inevitably it will be pushed into that.

他们必须这么做。

It will have to.

他们会的。

It will.

他们会的。

It will.

如果OpenAI真的把Atlas浏览器作为超级应用的一部分推出，我想谷歌就会说：监管机构可能不高兴，但我们得跟上竞争。

Because if OpenAI, in fact, does roll out Atlas, their browser, as part of the super app, like, then I think Google says, like, look, regulators won't like this, but we're we're trying to compete here.

他们已经有了一个AI优先的浏览器，诸如此类的东西。

And they've got a browser that's AI, you know, first enabled and whatnot.

所以我们会利用Chrome来实现这一点。

And and so we're going to leverage Chrome and try to do that.

这肯定会引发一场风波，因为Meta会在背后悄悄说，他们不该被允许这么做。

And, you know, that's it's there's going to be fireworks about that because Meta will be behind the scenes, you know, whispering that they shouldn't be allowed to do that.

苹果公司私下里又会怎么看待这件事呢？

What will Apple say about that, you know, behind the scenes and and all that sort of stuff?

是的

Yep.

当然

Definitely.

好的

Alright.

一场大战即将上演

Big battle coming up ahead.

接下来我们先插播一段广告，回来之后聊聊，我都说不准现在还能不能管它叫黑马了

And now, we're gonna go to break, but when we come back, we can talk about I don't even know if you can call them a dark horse anymore.

我们可以聊聊苹果，聊聊这匹骏马，看看它在这场较量中有多大胜算

We could talk about the horse, the stallion, Apple, and its chances to factor in this battle.

没错

Right.

广告结束后我们就聊这个

We'll do that right after this.

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I'm Toby Howell.

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And some people are saying it's the best part of their morning.

因为我们知道一些你还不知道的事。

Because we know something you don't.

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Business news doesn't have to be boring.

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我们回到《科技大观》节目，今天邀请到的是M.

And we're back here on big technology podcast with M.

G.

G.

西格勒，来自Spyglass公司。

Siegler of Spyglass.

你可以在spyglass.org上找到Spyglass。

You could find Spyglass at spyglass.org.

非常推荐你试试。

Highly recommend it.

显然，当M.

Obviously, when M.

G.

G.

来，我们聊聊 Spyglass 的所有动态。

Comes on, we talk through all the Spyglass stories.

过去一个月里，我最喜欢的一篇 Spyglass 文章是关于苹果是否会默认赢得消费级人工智能市场的。

And one of my favorite over, the past month from Spyglass has been about whether Apple will win consumer AI by default.

我读的时候还犹豫了一下，但 M.

In fact, I'm hedging as I read it, but M.

G.

G.

他写的时候可一点都没犹豫。

Was not hedging as he wrote it.

原文里根本没用问号。

There's no question mark there.

你当时是这么写的，M.

Here's what you wrote, M.

G.

G.

苹果在消费者层面赢得AI这场战役已经是板上钉钉的事了。

Apple is set to win AI at least from a consumer perspective.

苹果一向如此，看着别人推出新产品和服务，等时机成熟了再以更出色的用户体验杀进来，最终拿下市场。

Apple seems on the verge of doing what they always do watching new products and services come about and then jumping in later with a better user experience to win the day.

而这一切当然都会体现在Siri身上。

And that of course is going to be with Siri.

苹果在WWDC上展示的Siri版本更真实、更有吸引力了，我记得应该就是我们上次聊天那周发布的。

So not only did Apple present a more realistic and compelling version for Siri at WWDC, was sort of I think it happened the week we spoke.

上次我们聊的时候，他们已经做了个不错的预览。

Gave a nice preview the last time.

现在正式发布了。

They've debuted it.

不仅这个愿景更说得通，演示效果也确实不错。

Not only did the vision make more sense, but the the demos have have looked good.

我得承认，我自己还没去折腾着把这功能装到手机上，因为上次我装了Apple Intelligence，手机直接卡到没法用。

I I'll admit, I personally have not gone through the process to get it on my phone because the last time I put Apple intelligence on my phone, it became unusable.

好几个应用直接没法用了，所以我决定再等等看。

Like, multiple apps just stopped working, so I've decided to wait a little bit.

但你看到的那些视频和报道，展示的新Siri功能确实挺吸引人的。

But the videos that you see and the reports that you see of what the new Siri can do are actually quite compelling.

在我们聊苹果为什么可能默认赢得消费级AI之前，M，你能说说看吗？

So before we get into, like, why Apple may end up winning consumer AI by default, can you talk a little bit, M.

G，当用户真正用上这个新Siri时，它到底能做什么？你有没有试过？最期待哪些功能？

G, about what this new Siri will do when people get it on their phones and whether you've experimented with it, what you're looking forward to?

是的。

Yeah.

我看完WWDC之后的想法是这样的。

So this was, you know, my my take after watching WWDC.

说实话，这事儿挺有争议的，毕竟苹果以前就承诺过，差不多两年前了，结果最后没兑现。

And, yeah, it was a bit controversial simply because of the past, right, that Apple has promised, you know, this dating back two years ago and then famously whiffed on it.

去年他们干脆啥也没说，就在背后重新调整，准备卷土重来。

And then last year sort of had nothing to say while they were, you know, behind the scenes trying to gather you know, regather themselves and come back at it.

从这次发布会的内容，再加上我这么多年关注苹果、报道苹果，现在又深深融入这个生态系统的直觉来看，我觉得我已经看到了他们该有的样子——就像你提到的，他们还是在按自己的套路出牌。

And from everything I saw in this presentation and just my gut instinct having watched Apple for, you know, so many years, a couple decades and covering them and and now, you know, just being deeply ingrained in that ecosystem, I feel like I saw what I needed to see from them, which is that just as you noted, like, they're running their playbook.

他们总是观察别人在某个领域是怎么成功的，然后心想，我们从产品角度一定能做得更好。

They watch to see how others have had success in a certain field, and they say, like, we think we can do this better from a product perspective.

于是他们就聚焦在这个方向上。

And so they zoom in there.

光看那些产品演示，虽然还是录播的，但据我所知，其实都是实时演示的，他们特意加了停顿，跟两年前那种生硬的演示完全不一样。

And just from those those product demos, which were still we should say, they were still recorded, but by all accounts, they were actually done in real time because they they made an emphasis to have pauses and, it wasn't just like these demos like they were two years ago.

所以我在WWDC上看这些演示的时候，就明白了他们接下来要做什么——很明显，他们是靠iPhone预装这个优势来打底的。

So when I was watching those demos during WWDC, it was like, I see what they're going to do now because it's basically they obviously leverage the iPhone in terms of it being preinstalled.

iPhone上本来就有个按钮，一按就能唤出Siri。

They have a button on the iPhone, of course, that you can use to evoke invoke the Siri itself.

你刚看到迈克·洛克威尔，那个新接手这个团队并彻底重组他的高管，就直接演示了：按住按钮，对着iPhone说话，它就跟一个聊天机器人对话一样，就像你用ChatGPT或者Claude那样，只不过这次，Siri已经内置在每一台iPhone、iPad、macOS，还有AirPods里，无处不在。

And so you just saw Mike Rockwell, the new the executive who took over that group and and sort of rebuilt it, just doing these demos where it's as simple as holding down the button and speaking to your iPhone and it being talking to a chatbot, just as you would with ChatGPT or just as you would with Claude, except that, again, this is built into every single iPhone and iPad and macOS and every other device, Siri, in your AirPods, it's all going to be there.

所以你不想说这是‘默认胜出’，但换个角度看，这其实更像是行业基本门槛——你必须得有这个，不然根本没法玩。

And so, you know, you hate to call it sort of winning by default, but I think it's almost like this is a negative also a sort of a negative framing of it, like being table stakes.

但他们其实只需要做到这一步就够了，因为不是你我，也不是现在正在听的大多数人，而是那些即将第一次接触这些技术的普通用户——全球的父母和孩子们，这将是他们的初次体验。

But that's all they needed to do because, again, not you and I, not not a lot of people who are probably out there listening right now, but for the masses who are going to be introduced to these things, this is gonna be their introduction to it, for the first time to the parents of the world and to the kids of the world.

我觉得苹果已经做得足够多了。

And I do think that Apple has done enough.

你问，我有没有下载它？

And you ask, like, has I have I downloaded it?

还有什么我可以帮您的吗？

Is there something else I can help with?

我刚刚触发了。

I just triggered.

我是不是已经做得够多了？抱歉。

Have I done enough to or sorry.

我有没有试用过它？

Have I have I played around with it?

是的。

Yeah.

所以我现在在一台备用的 iPad 上装了它，而且我正用一台运行着 macOS 测试版的电脑，这其实挺冒险的。

So I have it installed on a backup iPad right now, and I'm actually using very dangerously a computer that's running the Mac OS beta right now.

不过它们还挺稳的，因为他们说这就像当年的 Snow Leopard 版本一样成熟了。

But they're pretty solid, like, because they've said it's like a quote of a Snow Leopard release.

是的。

Yeah.

你举几个例子吧，说说它能做什么，你都用它干了些什么。

Just give some examples of what it can do and what you've done with it.

我其实就是让它慢慢融入了我的日常，让它成为我生活的一部分。

So I've just been putting it through the paces in that I now bake it into my routine.

以前呢，我经常用 ChatGPT、Gemini 和 Claude 这几个工具。

You know, previously, I was using ChatGBT, Gemini and Claude.

每次提问，我几乎都会轮着用它们。

I would just rotate almost for every query I do.

我就是想拿它们互相比一比，看看谁更厉害。

I would like, you know, just sort of bake off against them all.

现在我也把Siri加进来了，看看它表现怎么样。

Now I rope in Siri in there as well just to see how well it can stand up.

从简单的事实型问题开始，比如以前Siri根本答不出来的那种。

And so it's everything from simple queries, you know, factual based queries, which Siri famously could not do previously.

对吧？

Right?

比如那个经典例子——谁赢了超级碗，以前它完全不知道，可那明明是数据库里最基础、最容易查的信息，它就是做不到。

Like, there's the famous example of, like, who won the Super Bowls and it just didn't know it, even though that's, like, one of the most obvious, easy sort of things to pull from a database and they just couldn't do it previously.

我试过的大部分问题，它都能顺利回答，只是在一些表达边缘的地方偶尔会卡壳，但整体查询体验都没问题。

Everything that I've tried for the most part, there's certain things where it breaks sort of phrase on the edges, but everything that I've tried has worked from a query perspective.

更值得期待的是它开始支持智能任务流程的时候。

Now, more interesting stuff will be as it starts to get into the agentic workflows.

很多功能现在还没上线，但这是苹果最大的优势之一，因为系统深度集成，它能直接看到你屏幕上显示的内容，知道你在做什么，比如你浏览网页时，它能主动问：‘你网页右上角那个东西是什么？’

A lot of that stuff is not live yet, but that's the other major, major advantage that Apple has because, again, baked into the device, they're going be able to, for example, the big one, see what's on your screen and see what you're doing and being able to say like, Hey, what is that up in the corner of this this website that I'm browsing or whatnot?

而其他服务要么得你手动授权，要么弹出一堆权限请求，远没这么自然流畅。

And it'll be able to look at that, whereas the other services and applications either will require, like, very, you know, explicit permissions and pop ups to do that beyond sort of the download of their service.

我们看看苹果会限制哪些功能，不会限制哪些。

And we'll see what Apple restricts and what they don't.

对我来说，最近我特别喜欢用聊天助手的一个功能，虽然说起来有点奇怪，其实是个很基础的用法——就是Gmail搜索。

To me, one of the things that I've actually really enjoyed using chat chattypt for or with or to do recently has been it's kind of a weird use case or a basic use case, but just Gmail search.

是的。

Yeah.

太棒了。

It's amazing.

你只要说一句：‘那个邮件串里负责公关的 guy 是谁？’

And the nice thing about it is you can just say like, who is that PR guy on that email chain?

它就会回答：‘我觉得是这个人。’

And it will be like, I think it's this person.

然后还会给你发那封邮件的链接。

And then you'll give you a link to that email.

这真的特别实用，虽然说起来有点抱歉，又得回到Gmail，但很多默认的搜索功能都太差了。

That is so useful especially because I mean, sorry, unfortunately going back to Gmail but like a lot of these default searches are not good.

不是。

No.

而且这来自一家搜索引擎公司。

And so it's coming from a search company.

他们应该不错，但这不是重点。

They should be good but that's beside the point.

但我觉得最酷的是，通过这些Siri演示，能把这种语义搜索应用到所有你的应用上。

But but the cool thing to me is with these Siri demos being able to put that type of semantic search on top of all your apps.

对吧？

Right?

因为它能处理邮件。

Because it will have email.

还能处理短信，而且都能正常工作。

It will have text messages and and have that work.

这太惊人了。

That's crazy.

对我来说，真正的价值就体现在这里，这也是我对此充满期待的原因。

And that's really where the added value comes in to me, and that's why I'm excited about this.

现在，很多这类功能已经开始正常运行了。

And so a lot of that stuff has started to work now.

你提到刚安装苹果智能最初版本时有多麻烦。

You talk about, like, the pain it was when you first installed the original versions of Apple intelligence.

那时候需要花很长时间重新建立索引。

There's it takes a long time to index again.

在新版本里，刚安装时基本上得把整个手机的内容重新索引一遍。

It's like basically going when you first install it in this new version, it basically has to re index your entire your entire phone.

像我这样有八万张甚至更多照片的人，得等上很久才能完全准备好。

And if you have a lot of photos as I do, like 80,000 or something, maybe even more, it takes a long, long time for it to be ready.

虽然它在后台处理的时候你也能用，但确实能感觉到有东西在运行。

You can use it while it's sort of doing that, but it's it's get you know, there's stuff going on in the background.

运行起来会比平时慢一点。

It's going to be a little bit more slow.

有时候手机会发烫，整个过程也特别耗时。

Sometimes the phone gets hot or the device gets hot, but it and it takes just a long time to to do that.

我觉得完全搞定花了好几天，等所有事情都处理完才算是结束了。

I think it took several days for it to be totally complete, you know, by the time it was all done.

但现在你可以直接搜索相册里那些老照片了。

But now all of a sudden, you can query, yeah, old photos that you have in your library.

这些功能都是一个个单独实现的，而这些本来两年前就该兑现的承诺。

And it's all this individual stuff, which again is the stuff that was promised two years ago.

他们当初那支广告里请了贝拉·拉姆齐，演的就是你这种场景——你记不起在哪儿见过那个人了。

They had the ad with Bella Ramsey that was like exactly your use case of like, who is that person that I met at this thing and and so and so.

现在这些功能都能用了。

And you can do that now.

谷歌当然也在承诺同样的功能，毕竟他们有Gmail，还有其他不少服务。

And Google, of course, is promising the same thing because they have Gmail, as noted, and several other things.

所以这本质上就是两家之间的较量。

And so that's like a battle between the two of them.

对我来说，区别在于Pixel，虽然挺让人印象深刻的，我也喜欢Pixel Fold，但它和iPhone的规模完全不在一个级别上。

The difference to me there is that Pixel, while, you know, impressive, I a Pixel Fold, I like it, but it's just not at the same scale as iPhone.

所以那里根本谈不上什么真正的竞争。

And so there's no real competition there.

你可以说整个安卓生态加起来，但它们太分散了，三星有自己的AI，其他厂商还跟Perplexity合作，各自为政。

You could say like all the Android ecosystem together, but they're so split between Samsung has their own AI and, all these other services, they partner with Perplexity.

结果就是全都分散了，而苹果的AI则完全整合进自家产品，Siri AI只是换了个新名字而已。

And so it's all going to be split, whereas Apple's is all going to be dialed into their product, Siri AI, so it's got a slightly new name.

但到目前为止，表现还是很稳的。

But you know, it's solid so far.

而且从那些实际在用的人那里听到的反馈也都说，这东西很靠谱，未来只会越来越好。

And I think that every indication you hear from people who are also using it out and about is that it's solid and it's only going to get better from here.

当然，接下来就看会不会出现什么AI领域的新突破，或者有没有新的使用方式，比如超级应用能不能带来全新功能，会不会把目标线又推远了，让苹果再次落后？

And yeah, and so then it just becomes a question of if there is some sort of new breakthrough in AI or if there's some new way of doing things, if super apps unlock some sort of new capabilities, does that move the goalpost out and then put Apple behind again?

如果真发生这种情况，我一点都不会觉得意外。

I wouldn't be shocked if that happens.

对吧？

Right?

所以问题就回到我们之前讨论过的：苹果能不能跟上AI时代的节奏，及时推出新功能，而不是非得等到一年后的大发布才行动，如果真有必要的话，他们得主动出击，跟上外界的技术进展才行。

And so we then then it just becomes like the thing that that we've talked about previously where it's like, does Apple are they able to get in line and have the right cadence for the AI age to be able to release things, not waiting for the big marquee event a year from now if they need to, like, you know, step up and sort of do something new to meet the capabilities out there in field?

还是说，他们觉得这片领域还是野蛮生长的荒原，根本没必要急着参与进去？

Or conversely, do they feel like the frontier is still the Wild West and we don't need to necessarily be playing in that field?

OpenAI、Anthropic这些公司，顺便说一句，你照样能在iPhone上用他们的产品。

OpenAI's and let the Anthropics And by the way, you can use those products on an iPhone still.

如果你想要最前沿的AI功能，完全可以去用这些服务。

So if you want that cutting edge stuff, you can go and use those products.

但真正实用的AI，按他们的思路，应该是直接内置在我们自己的设备里。

But for the real useful AI, trying to think of how they would frame it, we will have it on our device basically.

没错。

Yeah.

我特别认同你这么说。

I mean, I really liked how you put it.

我完全同意这个观点。

I really agree with this completely.

就像当年iPhone刚推出时我们对摄像头的理解一样，最好的AI设备一定是随身携带的那个，至少在可预见的未来，那就是iPhone。

Were just as we learned about cameras when the iPhone launched nearly twenty years ago, the best AI device is going to be the one that you have on you and at least for the foreseeable future, that's the iPhone.

对吧？

Right?

我们刚刚讨论了这么多使用场景，我完全赞同你的看法。

So it's sort of like we're talking through all these different use cases and I totally agree with you.

苹果其实只需要推出一个基础版本就够了，这本身已经是相当了不起的技术了。

All Apple really needed to do was build that table stakes version, which is still impressive technology.

把它装到iPhone上，直接就能用。

Attach it to the iPhone and away you go.

就像我之前举的ChatGPT的例子，我现在就特别开心地用它来帮我查邮件相关内容，它通过Gmail插件自动抓取邮件内容，再回填到聊天窗口里，而我就是在手机App或者浏览器里用它。

Like that example I gave with ChatGPT of like, I'm now very happily typing into ChatGPT to find me stuff about my emails, which is then using a Gmail connector to find Gmail and populating it back into chat, which I'm on in either an app on my phone or on the browser.

其实没必要搞得这么复杂。

It doesn't need to be that difficult.

这本来就不该这么复杂。

It shouldn't be that difficult.

真正该发生的，是我直接按一下手机上的按钮，问一句：那个公关人员在那封邮件里吗？

What should happen is I just literally press an action button on my phone and say, is that PR person on that email thread?

然后它立马给出答案，我就完了事。

And then it just spits it out, and I'm good.

我还想提另外两点。

And so two other things I would mention.

第一，我们之前已经聊过那个演示，迈克·洛克威尔一直按着按钮。

One, we sort of already talked about the demo where Mike Rockwell is holding down the button.

我觉得这种操作以后会变得很平常。

I think that that becomes, like, a normalized thing.

现在看起来有点怪，但我一点都不意外，以后会看到人们走在街上，按着按钮跟Siri或AI聊天，随时查各种信息。

It seems weird now, but I wouldn't be shocked that we see people walking down the street sort of hitting that button to to talk to Siri AI and just querying all sorts of things on the fly.

当然，他们大概会戴着AirPods，边走边说。

Use probably using AirPods, obviously, to talk out and about.

你可以直接喊一声‘嘿，Siri’。

And, you know, you know, you could say, hey hey, Siri.

我肯定又不小心把她唤醒了。

I'm sure I triggered her again.

就像你现在做的这样。

Just as you do right now.

但按一下这个按钮，是个特别简单的操作，我觉得以后会变成街上人人都在做的事。

But hitting that button, it's just like it's such a simple sort of, you know, mechanism that I think will become like a thing that you see people out there in the world doing.

一开始看着挺怪的，但突然你就明白了，哦，原来他们在干这个。

And then it looks weird at first, but then all of a sudden you realize, oh, what they're doing.

还有另一件我觉得会很流行的事——我女儿正冲着窗外对我笑挥手呢。

The other thing that I think will be big Oh, my little my little daughter's smiling and waving at me through the window.

不好意思。

Sorry.

另一件我觉得会大受欢迎的事，是视觉智能。

And the other thing that I think will be big is visual intelligence.

自从苹果两年前推出Apple Intelligence以来，这功能就一直存在，而且表现相当不错。

So this has been around since Apple launched Apple Intelligence itself two years ago, and it's actually fairly good.

那时候它之所以好，是因为背后用的是OpenAI和谷歌的技术。

It was good because it was actually using OpenAI and Google previously.

现在，这项功能已经完全整合到相机里了。

And so now it's being fully baked into the camera.

我觉得，现在其他服务虽然也有类似功能，但因为这是iPhone自带的，默认就开着，未来肯定会看到很多人举着手机，看起来像在拍照，其实是在用AI识别周围环境，问问题、找信息。

And I do think that this could be something that, again, all these services sort of have levels of this right now, but because it's baked into the iPhone by default, I think that you're going to see a lot of people out there either holding up their phones, looking like they're taking a picture when what they're doing is just querying and using AI to look at the world around them and figure out different things.

我觉得，这会是未来设备的关键，比如智能眼镜，还有可能带摄像头的AirPods之类的。

And I think that that will be key for future devices, obviously glasses and then AirPods potentially with cameras and whatnot.

所有这些功能，之所以能这么顺利地发展，归根结底还是因为iPhone打下的基础。

And so all that stuff, again, is so well positioned to be able to take advantage of that all because of the iPhone.

没错。

Right.

我读你那篇文章时有个想法：这最能说明问题了——苹果居然能以那么低的成本，从谷歌那里拿到基础模型，到底花了多少钱？

And so one note that I made as I read your piece was, this is the biggest indictment to me on the value of foundational models that Apple was able to get Google reportedly for what was it?

据说每年花十亿美元，就是为了帮他们打造一个功能完整的应用或操作系统，把这项技术内置进去。

It's a billion dollars a year reportedly to to help them build a functional app or functional operating system effectively with this technology built in.

那谷歌为什么要这么做呢？

And why would Google do that?

这显然不符合谷歌的利益，毕竟苹果是它最大的手机竞争对手，帮对手做出比自己更好的AI体验，这说不通。

It's not in Google's interest necessarily to help like its number one handset competitor to build a better experience AI experience than they have, which is what this might be.

但正如你在文章里提到的，这种技术正在变得越来越普通。

But as you point out in your piece it's becoming commoditized.

对吧？

Right?

如果谷歌不干，OpenAI会干，Anthropic也会干，谁知道还有谁会抢着做呢？

If Google doesn't do it OpenAI would do it or Anthropic would do it or who knows would do it.

所以你就不得不问了，这到底算什么？

And so you get to this point where you're like, well, what is this?

基础模型的价值到底在哪？

What is the value of foundational models?

在广告之前，我说他们希望这个设备能像一台笔记本电脑，既能处理工作，也能满足个人需求。

Before the break, I said they want it to be like a laptop for you where you can use business and personal uses.

没错。

Great.

那他们最不想跟笔记本电脑相似的地方是什么？

What's the one parallel they don't want with the laptop?

笔记本电脑曾经彻底商品化了，直到最近内存成本飙升——讽刺的是，这恰恰是AI推动的——之前价格一路暴跌。

The fact that the laptop effectively commoditized and up until this recent memory crunch, which is ironically is being spurred by AI, the prices dropped through the floor.

那为什么这里不会发生同样的情况呢？

And so why wouldn't the same happen here?

是的。

Yeah.

苹果公司特别强调，他们提到了谷歌。

And so Apple was so adamant talking about how, you know, they mentioned Google.

有些人原本以为他们根本不会提到谷歌。

Some people thought they wouldn't mention Google at all.

对吧？

Right?

但他们确实提到了谷歌，而且说得相当直接。

But they did mention Google and they were fairly straightforward about it.

他们提到合作，但明确表示自己承担了所有主要工作。

But they mentioned them in like that they were partnering with them, but so explicit that they did all of the heavy lifting themselves.

他们基本上是用了Gemini的核心技术，但我觉得他们没提‘蒸馏’这个词，因为觉得听众可能不关心或者也不懂。

They basically got, you know, the underlying Gemini technology and didn't use the word I don't think they use the word distillation because I I think that it's, like, something that they would assume the audience wouldn't care about or know about necessarily.

但听起来他们实际做的就是这些。

But, basically, it sounds like what what they did.

或者他们根本不好意思承认。

Or they'd be embarrassed to admit.

不好意思。

And embarrassed.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

没错。

Right.

承认这一点。

To admit.

就像埃隆在法庭上那样，不得不公开承认。

Like, Elon had to on on on, you know, in the courtroom.

对吧？

Right?

他们实际上是借助其他模型进行提炼，才让Grok运行起来的。

That they basically were using other models to distill to get Grok to work.

苹果和谷歌的合作也是同样的道理。

And so Apple, you know, is doing that with Google.

而且，他们一贯的宣传口径就是：这可不是把Gemini换个皮而已。

And but also it's it's part of their just whole mantra and messaging to say, like, this is not just Gemini reskinned.

我们完全是用谷歌的技术从零开始打造的，本质上是做了一个新版的Gemini，但我们不叫它Gemini，我们叫它Siri AI和Apple Intelligence。

We're we built this from the ground up with Google technology to build, like, effectively a new version of Gemini that we're not calling Gemini, that we're calling Siri AI and Apple intelligence.

它会具备一些Gemini和谷歌目前主打的不同新功能。

And it will have new different capabilities than what sort of Gemini focuses on and what Google is focused on.

他们反复强调过这一点。

And so they went over this.

他们一再反复地说明，甚至在发布会之后，还专门办了一场活动，专门详细解释这些内容。

They hit this over and over and over again, including after the keynote, had a separate event to just really talk through these details.

所以谷歌那边，我觉得他们本来就已有搜索合作，这笔生意对双方来说都相当赚钱。

And so, Google, I think, you know, they're obviously, they have the existing search partnership in place, which is super, you know, lucrative, I think, for both sides.

过去两年里，事情慢慢明朗之后，他们是否愿意再走一遍这条路，继续续约，为这个新时代重新合作呢？

And I think, you know, once everything sort of played out over those past two years, you know, were they willing to just go down this path again and sort of re up the partnership and and sort of do it for this new age?

听上去就是这样。

Sounds like it.

接下来就变成一个问题：苹果会不会有一天真的把所有技术都自主研发到位？

And then it then it becomes a question of does Apple ever get to the point where they would sort of, yep, have all the technology in house that they need?

说到这点，他们真有意愿这么做吗？

And to your point, do they feel like do they ever want to do that?

没错。

Right.

训练这些前沿模型的成本实在太高了。

Because it's so expensive to train these frontier models.

苹果真会想进入这个领域吗？

Does Apple ever want to play in that world?

我觉得这还是个悬而未决的问题。

I think that's the open question.

我的意思是，这里面牵涉很多因素，比如他们在芯片和硅技术上的优势。

If mean, I think there's a lot of variables in there, including like with their own, you know, silicon and chip expertise.

如果他们觉得能设计出专门的芯片，大幅降低成本，那也许真有那么一种可能。

Like if they felt like they could build, you know, specific chips where they could do it much cheaper and and all of that, like, maybe there's a world in which they do that.

当然，他们现在也在研发自己的模型。

And obviously, they're working on their own models.

但话说回来，他们真想进入前沿领域吗？

But again, do they want to play in the frontier?

当然现在不会。

And certainly not right now.

我觉得这个问题还没定论，就算将来真有那一天，也不太符合苹果一贯的作风。

And I think it's an open ended question of if they ever do, but that's not a very Apple historical Apple stance.

对吧？

Right?

因为按照蒂姆·库克的风格，他们只想掌控自己能完全主导的一切。

Because they the Tim Cook doctrine, they want to own and operate everything, you know, that they want to be in control of.

这种思路其实早从乔布斯时代就有了，那时候他就觉得苹果被Adobe之类公司坑了。

And this dates before a cook to the jobs days when he felt like Apple was getting screwed over by Adobe and whatnot.

所以，苹果接下来会怎么走？我觉得答案很直接，虽然听起来有点无聊，但也挺有意思——他们现在就是按兵不动，等着看局势怎么发展。

And so anyway, where does Apple go from here and where do they And I think the answer is like the honest sort of boring, funny in ways answer is like they're just sitting back and waiting and seeing where it plays out.

对吧？

Right?

而目前，他们觉得是的。

And right now, they feel Yes.

我觉得他们挺满意的，毕竟没花几百亿美金，却已经带着Siri AI走进了市场。

I think they feel pretty good that they didn't spend they haven't spent hundreds of billions of dollars, and they're gonna be out there in the world with Siri AI.

让我这么说吧。

Well, let me put it this way.

如果你花十亿美元，能拿到一个像这样的产品——当然，还得打个补丁，我们还没看到它完全上线，结果待定，但目前看方向是对的。

If you could spend $1,000,000,000 and get a product that works this way and again caveats, we haven't fully seen it rolled out to the way that it's supposed to so TBD but it looks like it's on that track.

如果你花十亿美元就能买到这样的产品，难道不会让你质疑今年这七千亿美金的投入吗？

If you could spend $1,000,000,000 on this product, it doesn't it make you question the $700,000,000,000 that are going to be spent on this technology this year?

对。

Yeah.

这简直就像那个‘博士邪恶’的梗。

It's I mean, it's almost like the doctor evil meme.

对吧？

Right?

你花十亿美元，别人看了都会笑你。

It's like you're spending $1,000,000,000, and it's like everyone else would laugh at you.

你花十亿，别人却花好几百亿。

You're spending a billion everyone else is spending hundreds of billions of dollars.

你说十亿美元是什么意思？

What do you mean $1,000,000,000?

他们只花了这么点钱，就搞定了谷歌的Gemini技术，花了一年时间就进了门。

And that's all they needed to spend to get, you know, a year to get to get basically Google's Gemini technology in the door.

接下来会怎样，咱们走着瞧吧。

And, we'll see how it plays out from here.

但说实话，这种投资你肯定会选。

But, yeah, you would you would definitely take that bet.

我觉得，某种程度上，微软也在悄悄跟进，比如萨提亚·纳德拉最近老说要保持开放中立，说他们有自己的前沿模型，可又故意淡化这些，明明还没完全成熟，就先打预防针——我觉得大家渐渐都明白了，未来可能根本没必要自己搞前沿模型，因为成本太高，回报却越来越低。

And I think, you you know, in some ways, it sounds like Microsoft is is sort of, you know, backing into some of this as well, like with their most recent talking points of Satya Nadella just talking about, like, yeah, you know, they want to be sort of more agnostic and they'll have they have their frontier models, but they're almost downplaying them even before they're fully up to snuff where it's just like, I think, you know, everyone's starting to recognize that there might be a world in which, like, you don't want to have the frontier models because you're in charge of the cost of that and the the returns are going to be more and more diminishing over time.

我们这几年一直聊这个话题，但现实还没跟上，前沿依然是前沿。不过最终，还是会回到我们一开始讨论的那个点上。

Now we famously have talked about this for multiple years at this point, and that hasn't really been the case as the frontier is still the frontier, but it's ultimately going to come to into what we kicked off talking about.

这些技术到底能用在哪些地方？

Like, what are the use cases of these things?

人们能从中得到什么实际价值？

And what use do people get out of them?

随着成本越来越高，他们还愿意为这些技术付多少钱？

And what are they willing to pay for them as cost is becoming more and more of an issue?

对啊。

Yeah.

我不是想泼冷水，但说实话，我真的搞不懂。

I don't want to kick a horse wallets down so to speak, but personally cannot understand.

我之前在周五的节目里也说过。

I've said this on the Friday show.

我现在完全不明白微软到底在做什么。

I can't get what what Microsoft is is doing right now.

我从没见过哪家公司能在短短两年内，从自信领先一下子变成落后又手忙脚乱。

They are they have gone I've never seen a company go from confident and leading to behind and flailing in, what was it, two years?

五分钟前萨提亚·纳德拉还在让桑达尔跳舞，现在萨提亚·纳德拉自己倒问：他到底在搞什么？

Satya Nadella was making Sundar Dance five minutes ago, and now Satya Nadella is like, what is he doing?

这跟苹果的做法形成了一个挺有意思的对比。

It's an interesting, you know, foil against what basically Apple has done.

对吧？

Right?

苹果那边一直按兵不动，大家都说他们AI落后了，掉队了。

Because Apple has basically sat back and everyone ragged on them that they were gonna they were they were falling behind in AI, that they weren't there.

微软呢，完全相反，对吧？

Microsoft was the opposite, right?

他们当时可是天才般的存在。

They were the geniuses.

他们跟OpenAI合作，那简直是历史上最成功的投资之一，可现在看看他们。

They had the OpenAI relationship, like one of the best investments of all time and look at them.

所以，他们当时处在完全相反的位置。

And so, you know, they were in the sort of opposite position.

再快进两年，形势真的完全反转了。

And fast forward those two years and the tables really have turned.

而且说实话，微软给我的感觉是，他们换了太多次策略，我都搞不清他们到底该往哪个方向走了。

And again, Microsoft to me, it all it just feels like they've shifted strategy so many times now that I'm not sure that they know exactly what they should be doing.

就说现在，萨提亚·纳德拉又写了一篇博客，专门谈这些观点。

Like, currently again, to to go to, like, Satya Nadella's current talking points, he's writing his own little blog post about this these notions.

我觉得他其实是在摸风向，看市场到底在怎么想，他说企业用户都盯着 headlines，也清楚从 Azure 到其他产品，公司们都在担心开支失控。

I think what he's doing is basically trying to read the room and, you know, take the pulse of where things are going and saying, like, again, enterprises, he sees all the headlines and and knows certainly from Azure and and everything that Microsoft itself is selling that companies are wary about the spend getting out of control.

对吧？

Right?

那他想怎么办呢？

And so what does he want to do?

如果他能引入更多开源模型，比如 DeepSeek——你还记得吧，微软以前一度想拉拢他们，想靠他们来稀释在 OpenAI 上的巨额投入，后来那事儿怎么收场的？

If he can get more open source models, including DeepSeek, which if you remember, like at one point, Microsoft was going after them for potentially distilling their big investment in OpenAI, right, and how that played out.

所以现在他们又说要把 DeepSeek 纳入合作名单，把它当成自家平台上的核心模型之一。

And so now they're talking about bringing them on board and that being one of the key models that they offer up, you know, on their services.

再就是降低成本。

And again, bringing down costs.

我觉得他们想成为一站式平台，既有自己的前沿模型，也有各种开源模型，让用户和企业自己决定愿意花多少钱。

And I think that they want to they want to be the place that's a one stop shop, and they'll have their frontier models and they'll have everything on down to the open source and let users decide, let enterprises decide what they want to pay for.

如果你相信未来计算会更多地转向本地设备，那他们和英伟达合作的新策略——推出新一代AI电脑——就说得通了。

And if you believe that, you know, also that things are going to start to move more on device and obviously they have their their current new strategy with NVIDIA, with the new, you know, PCs that they're building, these these newfangled second go around of AI PCs.

毕竟，计算往边缘迁移，不仅为了省钱，也为了更快的响应速度，对吧？

Like, things going to move more towards the edge and also for cost reasons, but also for speed reasons and whatnot?

所以，我同意你的看法。

And so, again, I I'm with you.

我觉得他们的策略还在成型中。

I think that their strategy is still being formed.

我觉得吧，因为他们调整得太频繁了，但这就是我对他们意图的理解。

I think, again, because I think that they've shifted it so many times right now, but I that would be my read of what they're trying to do.

对。

Yeah.

说实话，我学到的一点是，这东西变得太快了。

I mean, one thing I've learned is this stuff moves so fast.

别急着捧谁，也别急着踩谁，真的。

Don't crown anyone and don't bury anyone pretty Yeah.

局势随时可能再次转变。

Could shift again quickly.

明白了。

Okay.

在结束之前，我想聊聊世界杯。

Before we go, I want to talk about the World Cup.

对。

Yeah.

就像我们一开始聊到的那样。

Like we previewed at the beginning of our conversation.

所以我们刚开完峰会，现在的情况是——

So I have you know we are coming off the summit.

我得承认，我确实需要一些放松的时间，而我放松的方式就是尽量多看这些淘汰赛。

I will admit I have definitely needed some downtime to unwind and the way I've done that is I've just watched you know basically as many of these knockout rounds as I can.

对。

Yeah.

我看克罗地亚对葡萄牙那场比赛的时候，才发现世界杯居然用了这么多高科技设备。

And I was watching the Croatia Portugal match and of course the World Cup has all this different technology involved.

有些技术我连听都没听过。

Technology that I didn't even know existed.

比如判断越位，现在能精确到脚指头，只要前锋的指尖比最后一名防守球员靠前，系统就会立刻提示，裁判也会据此判罚，这技术真是越来越精细了。

So for instance to see if somebody's off sides, know, they pinpointed it now and they'll show it on the screen so even if they get like a pinky you know in front of a defender they'll call it back and they have this new technology or this technology.

说实话，我对这些新东西了解得还不够透彻。

I'll admit I'm not like you know as up to speed as I should be on it.

这叫视频助理裁判，就是用来帮裁判做这类判罚的。

It's called video assisted referee and they're employing it for that type of stuff.

来，我念一段《诚实掮客》里的内容，咱们聊聊，因为这背后其实也有问题。

So here let me read this little section from The Honest Broker and we can discuss it because there is a downside here.

所以现在的问题是，VAR用过头了。

So the story is VAR has gone too far.

昨晚，克罗地亚对葡萄牙那场比赛的精彩结局被视频助理裁判打断了。

Last night a thrilling end to the Croatia versus match was interrupted by video the video assisted referee.

克罗地亚在比赛最后时刻看似奇迹般的进球，经过VAR回放后被取消了。

Croatia's seeming miracle goal in the dying seconds of the match was disallowed after a VAR review.

一记传中球在禁区内弹来弹去，最后莫名其妙地进了，本来让我们这些中立球迷又能多看三十分钟这场精彩比赛。

A cross into the box bounced around before it poked home in dramatic fashion, offering all of us neutrals a chance for thirty more minutes of this engrossing match.

道格，我插一句。

Doug, I'll just jump in.

实际情况是，葡萄牙当时领先一球，然后克罗地亚这个球进了。

What happened was Portugal was up by a goal, and this Croatia goal went in.

对。

Okay.

那这样一来，比赛就该在最后一秒进入加时了。

So then it would have gone into extra time in, like, the last second.

所以本来还能多踢三十分钟加时赛。

So it would have gone into maybe thirty more minutes of extra time.

但VAR却判定，球进入禁区前轻微碰到了一名克罗地亚后卫的头发，导致他的队友——你看上面那个框里的图示，他们还加了插图——处于越位位置。

Instead, VAR concluded that the ball on its way into the box had slightly touched the hair of a Croatian defender, putting his teammate, as you can see in the top box above, I guess they added the illustration, offside.

那一下触碰实在太轻，场上的裁判都没注意到，就连我住在华盛顿的Airbnb里，用4K高清75英寸电视回放，也根本看不出球的轨迹有任何变化。

The touch was so light that the on field reps did not spot it, and even with high def four k 75 inch TV in my DC Airbnb, I could not detect any change into in the trajectory of the ball.

证明这次触碰的依据，其实是球内置传感器的数据，图中那个小图里的灰度曲线就是证据。

The evidence for the touch came from a sensor in the ball with the evidence of the grays in the graph inset in the image above.

从技术角度讲，没错，规则是这么定的。

Technically, to be correct, sure.

这对比赛有利吗？

Good for the game.

我觉得不是。

I think not.

说白了，他们判进球无效，是因为球没被队友主动踢到，只是被队友的头发轻轻蹭了一下，肉眼根本看不见，连视频回放都看不出来。

So, basically, what happened here is they called the goal scorer offside because the ball wasn't redirected by one of his teammates, wasn't hit by one of its teammates, grazed the hair of the teammate in a way that the naked eye couldn't see, in the way that you can't even see on the video review.

你只能靠球里的传感器才知道它好像碰到了这名防守球员的头发。

You can only see by a sensor in the ball that says it apparently touched this defender's hair.

这个进球被取消了。

The goal was called back.

克罗地亚输掉了比赛，世界杯也因此错过了一场本该成为经典的结局。

Croatia lost the match, and the World Cup was robbed of what would have been a classic finish.

我觉得这说明了，我们社会现在对人工智能、自动化和机器人太过依赖，哪怕它们明明对我们有害，我们还是停不下来，依然愿意使用它们、信任它们。

And so what I think this tells us is that, you know, we have become in our society so reliant on AI, automation, and the robots that even when it's bad for us, we can't help ourselves And we still wanna employ it, and we still wanna trust it.

现在是时候该好好反思一下了，也许我们已经走得太远了。

And it's time for a reckoning where we say, maybe we've gone too far.

我很欣赏你从技术角度对这件事的分析。

So I appreciate the the the technology angle you've got here for this.

这确实很有道理。

And it is good.

毕竟这不光是足球——也就是你们在英国那边叫的足球——的问题。

I mean, because it's not just it's not just soccer slash football as as they call it here in in The UK.

你知道，棒球也有这个问题。

It is you know, baseball has this issue.

网球现在某种程度上也遇到了类似情况。

Tennis has it to some degree now.

各种运动都在慢慢被自动化取代。

You know, all of all of the different things are are getting sort of automated away.

但特别的是，VAR在英国的英超联赛里早就投入使用，而且一直争议不断。

But this specifically so VAR has also been, you know, live and controversial in the Premier League here in The UK for a while.

人们确实会烦，因为它把比赛的那份震撼感给冲淡了。

And, yeah, like, people get annoyed because, like, it just takes some of the majesty out of the game.

对吧？

Right?

因为它把判断推到云端，去分析那些人眼根本察觉不到的细微动作。

Because it take it basically takes it up to the cloud and, you know, looking at where, you know, little things that the human eye cannot detect.

所以听你这么一说，我在想，也许在世界杯这样的大赛里，比如决赛最后五分钟，甚至只留两分钟，干脆关掉VAR。

And so I do wonder, like hearing you talk through it, it's like maybe there should be a way, you know, like within a World Cup, within like, say the final, I don't know, five minutes, maybe two, maybe as little as two minutes where it's like VAR is off.

没错。

Right.

归根结底还是得靠裁判做判断，整个球场的气氛也随之展开——大家心里都在想，这到底算不算点球？

And it just basically going down to the the refs having to do their jobs and and sort of everyone in the stadium, you know, like the vibe, like sort of, you know, playing out, like, do we believe that this was actually a penalty?

我猜他们以前也讨论过类似的问题。

I'm sure they've debated that and things like that before.

棒球界一直有这种争论：投球和好球的判罚，到底该多大程度依赖裁判，而不是自动化系统。

Baseball has some some degree of that debate always, like how much balls and strikes should be relied upon the umpires versus the systems, the automated systems.

棒球之所以引入投球计时器，是因为比赛时间实在太长了，必须想办法提速。

Baseball had the issue because games were just getting way too long, so they needed to come up with the pitch clock and ways to basically speed things up.

但这里的情况不一样。

But that's not the situation here.

这里的问题是，技术用过头了，把比赛的庄严感、趣味性，甚至竞争的张力都给抹掉了——就因为‘我们能做得到’，所以就非得用上。

This is, yeah, just using Are the overleveraging technology and taking, again, the majesty, some of the fun and then just the competitiveness out of the game because it's something that they can pick up because it's basically the the old, like, we we can do it.

我们有这个技术。

We have the technology.

没错，我们有这个技术。

And, yes, we have the technology.

对。

Yes.

我们能做到。

We can do it.

但我们真的该这么做吗？

But should we do it?

就像杰夫·戈德布卢姆在《侏罗纪公园》里那样，他们根本没想过该不该做。

Jeff Goldblum, you know, Jurassic Park style, like, they didn't stop to think if they should.

我这儿老把各种流行文化梗混在一起，不过意思你应该懂。

I keep mixing all my pop culture analogies here, but you get it.

这事儿吧，就是那种，我们压根没考虑该不该，因为归根结底，这不就是娱乐嘛。

Like, it is one of those things, like, we didn't stop to think if we should because it's just like, at the end of the day, this is entertainment.

对吧？

Right?

你说，是比赛打平后进入加时赛，甚至可能踢点球来决出胜负，这种场面更吸引人呢，还是因为技术故障、裁判肉眼看不到细节，就这么草率地结束比赛，显得特别没劲？

Like and is it more entertaining to have a game tied and, you know, going into extra time and and and, you know, and going into potential shootout versus having it called on, like, this depressingly, you know, again, human eye not being able to see technical issue.

我其实已经明显偏向某个答案了，不过你也一样，肯定也会这么想。

And I think the you know, obviously, I'm leading it in a direction that that I would answer there, but and you would too, of course, as well.

但他们觉得，如果只在某些时候用、其他时候不用，这种选择性执行的规则，会让人觉得太容易滑坡了。

But they feel like it's probably too slippery of a slope to only do it, like to have these rules in place to use it sometimes and not other times.

没错。

Right.

我在想，我们在商业世界里是不是也有类似的处境？

And I just wonder if there's a parallel for us in, we think about the business world where we have similar options.

是该把决定权交给人，还是交给机器？现在人人都在拼命推这种技术，而我看了这些实际应用后最大的感受就是：我们根本停不下来。这当然对OpenAI、Anthropic和云服务商的营收是好事，但长远来看，我们很可能会过度依赖这些工具。在商业上，感受可能没那么重要。

Do we leave it with the people or do we go to robot judgment and I mean everybody right now is racing to deploy this technology and I think my main takeaway watching this in action is man we just can't help ourselves and you know and I guess that's good for the bottom lines of the OpenAI's and Anthropic and the cloud providers, but it is going to lead to a pretty interesting world where we're going to over rely on this stuff and I guess in business it's less about your feelings in a way.

没错。

Right.

也许这真能带来更好的企业运营，但不得不说，我们这么急着把本该由人来做的事全交给机器人，多少反映出人类的一种悲哀。

Maybe it will lead to better businesses, but it is I think a sad commentary a little bit on the state of humanity that we are rushing to hand the things that we do over to the robots at such a swift pace.

我再给你举个最近新闻里提到的例子，发生在法律领域，属于那种间接影响的问题。

I'll give you one other example that's been in the news lately of in law where it's the second order effect stuff.

当然，谁都希望法律能正常运作，每个人都能从中受益。

It's like, yeah, you want obviously, you want, like the law to work and everyone to be able to take advantage of it.

但现在太多法院被各种诉讼淹没了，这些诉讼以前根本不会出现，都是因为一些技术细节——这些服务平台会提醒你：‘你能不能就这个事儿起诉？’

But so many courts now are getting flooded with lawsuits basically that they weren't previously because of little technicalities that these services are able to offer up as like, well, can you technically sue for that?

是的，你可以。

Yeah, you can.

这是你可以说的话，这是怎么提交诉讼的流程。

Here's here's what you would say, and here's the way to file your lawsuit.

你难道会责怪那些以前根本不知道能起诉、现在才知道的人吗？

And it's like, again, would you begrudge anyone who's filing a lawsuit that they previously wouldn't have because they didn't realize it?

当然不会。

No.

但这里面确实会带来一些连锁反应，对吧？

But there's second order effects of it, right?

这会让法院系统不堪重负，也许他们根本没时间审理一些原本会处理的重要案件，因为现在的案件量已经超出了他们的承载能力。

And it's going to bog down the court system and maybe the court can't hear like a very important case, you know, in some other angle that they would have heard it previously because they can't scale as they have.

所以回到你刚才说的，虽然这个例子在娱乐和体育领域看起来有点荒唐，但这类事情其实都在现实中不断产生连锁反应，我们现在才刚刚开始看到这些影响。

So again, to your point, like, yeah, while this is sort of an example in entertainment and sports that seems silly, like it does, all of these things have second order effects that are playing out in the real world in real time that we're just seeing now.

所以，关于足球——我们的听众可能更习惯叫它足球——我的建议是，应该把越位规则改回去：只要身体任何一部分在防守球员身后，就不算越位。

So I guess my solution for football or soccer as our listeners may call it, is I think they should revert the offside rule back to where instead of if any part of your body was, in front of the the defender, you're offside.

只要你的身体有一部分在对方防守球员后面，就应该算合法位置。

I think as long as you have some part of your body behind the defender, you should be good.

如果真要用VAR，这样改会更合理，而不是现在这种反人类的规则。还有，他们必须取消那种能感应到头发轻碰的球感传感器。

And that would sort of make if you're gonna do VAR, you can live with that as opposed to the other way around because that feels more fair in terms of like what's left for humanity and I think they they have to end this sensor on the ball that can feel the hair graze.

我觉得头发不应该算作身体的一部分。

I don't think hair should count as a body part.

这只是我个人的看法。

That's just me.

抱歉，可能我这么说有点偏颇，毕竟我对自己头发的状况太有体会了，但这就是我的真实想法。

Sorry to all the maybe that's I'm stay saying this from, you know, biased from my experience with with follicles, but that's sort of my my perspective here.

我喜欢这个观点。

I like this.

我们现在讨论的已经从‘AI有没有生命’变成了‘头发有没有生命’。

We're going from is AI alive to is hair alive is the is the new debate.

从技术上讲，没错。

Technically.

嗯，我觉得……

Well, I

我也不确定。

don't know.

剪头发的时候你根本感觉不到疼。

You don't feel any pain when they cut it off.

确实如此。

So True.

没错。

It's true.

至少不是身体上的，也许是情感上的。

At least not physical, maybe emotional.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

好吧。

Okay.

咱们就停在这儿吧。

Why don't we leave it there?

美国、挪威和英格兰还都在里面。

We got The US, Norway, and England still in it.

我内心很矛盾，但也很期待。

So I'm very conflicted, but I'm excited.

很期待看这些比赛。

Excited to watch these.

是的。

Yeah.

太喜欢了。

Love it.

比赛真精彩。

Great games.

和你聊天总是这么愉快，M。

Great speaking with you as always, M.

G。

G.

大家去关注一下M吧。

Folks, go find M.

G。

G.

在spyglass.org上写文章。

Writing at spyglass.org.

订阅我们的通讯。

Sign up for the newsletter.

加入会员吧。

Become a member.

你绝对不会后悔。

You won't regret it.

所以，M。

So M.

G，再次感谢你。

G, thanks again.

一如既往欢迎你来参加。

Great to have you on as always.

谢谢，亚当。

Thanks, Adam.

大家好。

Hi, everybody.

非常感谢你们的收听和观看，我们下次再见，欢迎收听《科技大观》。

Thank you so much for listening and watching, and we'll see you next time on big technology podcast.