聊天_162 - 与贾科莫·祖科谈萨尔瓦多的B计划

如果人们还没准备好接受比特币，那就先用USDT吧，趁美元超级通胀之前多用一阵子，到时候我们就会发现，这就像诺亚方舟。

If people are not ready for Bitcoin, just go use USDT as long as you can before dollar hyperinflation, and then maybe we see it's like, you know, Noah's Ark.

所以，要下雨了。

So it's going to rain.

我们建造方舟。

We build the Ark.

我们不必强迫人们上船。

We don't have to force people on board.

我的意思是，就在那里等着，当你觉得准备好游泳了，再上船。

I mean, just wait there, and when you feel ready to swim, come aboard.

大家最近怎么样？

What is up, guys?

欢迎回到Bitcoin Audible。

Welcome back to Bitcoin Audible.

我是盖·斯旺，这个世界上读过最多比特币相关资料的人。

I am Guy Swann, the guy who has read more about Bitcoin than anybody else you know.

我目前正在忙其他工作，正在跑一些流程，为安装石膏板做准备，否则我就错过这个机会了。

I am in the middle of a lot of other work, running some lines to prepare before we push Sheetrock up and I lose the opportunity.

我打算分享一下，这其实是一场非常有趣的演讲。

I am gonna be sharing a this is actually a really fun talk too.

我在Plan B大会期间请了Giacomo Zucco做了一个简短的对话，大概持续了三十到四十五分钟。

I had Giacomo Zucco on just kind of a short think we did thirty minutes or forty five minutes or something like that at the Plan B conference.

我本来就想请他上节目，但我们没来得及聊完所有想谈的内容，不过还是讨论了不少特别有趣的话题。

And I was meaning to have him on the show anyway, and we didn't really get to talk about everything we wanted to talk about, but we did cover a bunch of, like, really fun stuff.

所以我打算把这段内容分享到动态里，给那些错过我其他演讲或活动的人看看。

So I thought I would share it on the feed for anybody who misses a bunch of other talks or events and stuff that I do.

而且我还有另一段。

And I've actually got another one.

这段也很精彩，如果我尽快把所有工作做完，它可能会成为下一集。

This one was really good too, and it might be the next episode depending on how long it takes me to get all this work done.

不过我也在Plan B大会上让Bitcoin Mechanic和HODL Tarantula参加了一个小组讨论，那场也非常精彩。

But I had Bitcoin mechanic and HODL Tarantula on a a panel at the Plan B conference too, and that one was really good.

所以请持续关注。

So stay tuned for that.

我会把这两期都发布到动态上。

I'll go ahead and publish both of them on the feed.

别忘了查看HRF。

Don't forget to check out the HRF.

我们即将发布一份财务自由报告。

We got a financial freedom report coming up.

这份通讯非常精彩。

There's such a good newsletter.

还有许多优质的科技更新，不仅涉及伊朗以及战争相关的各种动态，还包括一些自由科技工具和应对问题的新方法，尤其是在没有互联网的国家。

And then some really good tech updates, some news around not only around Iran and a bunch of stuff that's going on with the war, but then also freedom tech stuff for new tools and new ways to get around problems, especially in, a country where there is no Internet.

别忘了在今年六月的奥斯陆自由论坛查看这些内容，你可以在简介中获取门票、通讯，以及我在比特币领域使用并信赖的其他各种详情和精彩服务。

So don't forget to check them out at the Oslo Freedom Forum, June this year, and you can get tickets plus the newsletter plus a bunch of other details and other fun things and services that I use and trust in the Bitcoin space right down in the description.

好了，我们这就进入今天的节目。

And with that, let's go ahead and get into today's show.

这是我在萨尔瓦多Plan B会议上与Giacomo Zucco的对话。

This is my chat with Giacomo Zucco from the Plan B conference in El Salvador.

我们开始吧。

Let's get into it.

混蛋。

Bitch.

我更喜欢这一个。

I like this one better.

大家好。

Hello, everybody.

嘿。

Yo.

各位最近怎么样？

What's up, guys?

谢谢。

Thank you.

那个鼓掌的人。

That one guy clapping.

谢谢。

Thank you.

是的。

Yeah.

请发送你的照明地址。

Send your lighting address.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

不行。

No.

只针对第一个。

Just for the first.

只针对第一个。

Just for the first one.

你迟到了。

You're late.

是的。

Yeah.

你不能在知道自己要拿到比特币卫星后才开始鼓掌。

You can't you can't start clapping after you find out you're gonna get sats.

这真是胡说八道。

That's that's some crap.

大家最近怎么样？

What's up, guys?

我是盖伊·斯旺。

I am Guy Swann.

这显然是《比特币有声书》的迷你集。

This is a mini episode of Bitcoin Audible, apparently.

我是那个读过比你认识的任何人都多的比特币相关资料的人。

I'm the guy who's read more about Bitcoin than anybody else you know.

这是我的好朋友吉亚科莫。

This is my good friend Giacomo.

打个招呼吧？

Say what's up?

儿子，萨尔瓦多。

Son, Salvador.

那家伙想要一些sats。

That guy wants some sats.

那是杰瑟罗吗？

Is that Jethro?

是的。

Yeah.

最近怎么样？

What's up?

你进步了。

You're getting better.

你越来越好了。

You're getting better.

到面板结束时，你会非常迅速、非常灵敏。

By the end of the panel, you will be very fast, very reactive.

你们都见到斯特凡了吗？

Did you all get gotta see Stefan?

那个男人刚才穿着一套西装。

That man was wearing a suit up here.

我打赌他一定很热。

I bet he is hot.

哦，好吧。

Oh, okay.

各位，欢迎。

Guys, welcome.

欢迎，贾科莫。

Welcome, Giacomo.

谢谢

Thank

不客气。

you.

我很好奇，老兄。

I'm curious, dude.

说实话，我们本来只是讨论了要做一个节目，大概持续了几周，然后我们就偶然相遇了。

Literally, we we talked about doing a show for, like, a couple of weeks and then we just met randomly.

哦，太好了。

Oh, good.

我们就在Plan B做吧。

We'll do it at Plan B.

你最近在忙什么？

What have you been up to?

到底怎么回事，X平台的算法现在根本不再给我推送任何关于比特币的有趣内容了。

Where's where's like, literally, the algorithm on x does not put anything interesting about Bitcoin in my feed anymore.

全是政治、特朗普和选举那些破事。

It's all politics and Trump and election BS.

所以我很好奇。

So I'm curious.

真的，给我更新一下。

Literally, give me an update.

你最近在忙什么？

What have been up to?

所以我主要在做Plan B的事情。

So I'm mostly doing Plan B stuff.

Plan B不仅仅是一个会议。

Just the Plan B is not just the conference.

Plan B论坛在卢加诺，Plan B论坛在这里的萨尔瓦多。

The Plan B Forum in Lugano, the Plan B Forum here in El Salvador.

Plan B也是一个教育倡议网络。

Plan B is also a network of educational initiative.

你可以访问 planb.network 和 planb.academy，那里有很多免费课程，还有多种语言的课程。

So you can check out planb.network and planb.academy, where you have a lot of free courses and a lot of courses in different languages.

我们支持像在这里萨尔瓦多的 Cuba Plus 和 No Nation 这样的教育项目，还有很多美好的教育倡议。

We support those initiatives like Cuba Plus here in El Salvador and No Nation, a lot of beautiful education initiatives.

此外，我们还开展其他活动。

And also, we do other activities.

我特别自豪的一项活动，你明天可以去看看。

One I'm particularly proud of, you can check it out tomorrow.

所以午餐时间，午休时，你可以去主舞台。

So at lunchtime, lunch break, you go to the main stage.

明天你别吃午饭，去主舞台观看 Cypher Tank 的首映。

Tomorrow you skip lunch, you go to the main stage and you can see the premier of the Cypher Tank.

你知道 Shark Tank 是什么吗？

So you know what Shark Tank is?

你知道投资者和创业者路演，然后投资者提供资金的场景吧。

So you know investors, start uppers pitching and investors giving money.

你知道密码朋克是什么吗？

You know what cypherpunks are?

这就是密码朋克。

This is cypherpunk.

这同时也是鲨鱼资本。

And it's also shark tank.

这是密码资本。

It's cypher tank.

我们的想法是，就在这里。

The idea is that we Right there.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

你明白我的意思了吗？

See where I'm going?

我觉得对于意大利人来说，听起来可能更好，因为对我们来说，‘punk tank’和‘cypher tank’其实是一样的。

I think that for Italian probably it sounds better because for us punk tank is really the same.

可能对英语母语者来说不是这样，但我们是意大利人，所以不在意。

Probably not really for English speakers, but we're Italian, so we don't care.

而且格式的质量非常高。

And the quality of format is very, very high.

我非常自豪。

I'm super proud.

我平时不常参与专业性的事情。

I'm not used to be involved in professional stuff.

我通常做的事都马马虎虎，但这个做得非常好。

Usually what I do is half assed, but this one is very, very good.

所以你们明天可以去看看第一集。

So you can check it out the first episode tomorrow.

前三名初创公司和非营利组织一共获得了8.5万美元。

There were like $8.50 ks US dollar for the three better startups and the nonprofit.

是的

Yeah.

等等

Wait.

等等

Wait.

所以你真的是在为密码朋克项目做类似《鲨鱼坦克》的Cypher吗？

So so tell me so you're literally doing Cypher I mean, Shark Tank for Cypherpunk projects?

是的

Yes.

然后你上去提案，详细说明你想要构建什么以及为什么，接着你能获得85万美元吗？

And you go up and you propose and you break down, like, what you're trying to build and why and then, like you could get what 850,000?

是的

Yeah.

是的

Yeah.

所以我们很害怕。

So we were scared.

所以最初的想法是，我们就照搬《创智赢家》的方式来做。

So the original idea is that let's just do it just like Shark Tank.

是的。

Yeah.

唯一的问题是我了解我的比特币风投，我担心他们会不敢给出报价。

The only problem is that I know my I know my Bitcoin VCs and I was afraid they will have been shy with the offers.

所以我们说，好吧，你可以额外出价，但无论如何，你会对项目进行评分，得分最高的项目将获得来自Plan B风投基金和Plan B非营利基金会的85万美元，后者专门支持非营利性的开源项目。

So we said, okay, you can offer on top, but anyway, you will score the projects and the best scoring project will get $8.50 ks from the Plan B VC fund and from the Plan B nonprofit foundation for nonprofit open source projects.

所以这笔钱已经承诺给获胜者了，更像是一场路演比赛。

So that money was committed to the winners, more closer to a pitch contest in a way.

所以我们可以把它称为《创智赢家》遇上《美国达人秀》的比特币版。

So let's say it's Shark Tank meet Americans got talent for Bitcoiners.

结果非常有趣。

And and the result is very entertaining.

我

I

我可以上去吗？

Can I get up there?

我可以唱歌吗？

Can I sing?

什么？

Sorry?

如果我上去，我可以唱歌吗？

Can I sing if I get up there?

不行。

No.

不行。

But No.

如果你想唱歌，那是另一个话题了。

If you want to sing, that's another topic.

今晚在这个舞台上，晚上9:30。

Tonight on this stage, 09:30 p.

M。

M.

有一位叫佐藤罗卡莫托的人。

There is a Satoshi Rocamoto.

所以各位，你们知道的，是的。

So guys, you know Yeah.

再次感谢。

Thank you again.

哦，一些掌声。

Oh, some love.

是的。

Yeah.

卡纽特甚至都没能来。

Canute couldn't even make it.

你你

You you

大家都知道Canute是对的吧？

guys know Canute is right?

举起你们的手。

Raise your hands.

Canute没能来到这里。

So Canute cannot couldn't make it make it here.

他被困在马德里了。

He's stuck in Madrid.

你们知道，我们80%的音乐娱乐都依赖Canute。

And you know that we rely on Canute for 80% of the musical entertainment.

所以没有Knut，我们就需要你们在这里。

So without Knut, we need you here.

如果你会演奏乐器，会唱歌，或者像我一样能提供喜剧效果，请在晚上9:30上这个舞台。

If you can play some instrument, if you can sing, or if you can just do comic relief like me, be on this stage at 09:30 p.

嗯。

M.

你上台，唱或者装模作样地唱，或者假装演奏乐器。

You come on stage, you sing or you pretend to sing, and you or you pretend to play.

过来。

Be here.

太棒了。

Awesome.

好的。

Okay.

我想聊聊比特币的事。

I wanna get I wanna get to the Bitcoin stuff.

那是Cypher Tank。

That's Cypher Tank.

我们之前闲聊的时候，我没太明白。

I didn't understand when we were kinda chatting.

就像是，等等。

Was like, wait.

等等。

Wait.

什么？

What?

这真是个很棒的点子。

That's such a pretty dope idea.

我真的很想知道。

I'm I'm seriously curious.

明天是午餐吗？

Is that lunch tomorrow?

午餐时间。

Lunch break.

是的。

Yeah.

主舞台。

Main stage.

如果你在的话

You if you are on

我想我会在那之前上台。

I think I'll be on right before that.

你也可以，它无论如何都会留在Rumble上。

You can also it will remain on Rumble anyway.

所以它会在Rumble和YouTube上都保留。

So it will remain on Rumble at YouTube.

所以午餐休息后，如果你没能参加直播首播，你可以直接去cyphertank.org，在Rumble上观看。

So after the lunch break, if you could not make it to the live premiere, you can just check it on you just go on cyphertank.org and you can watch it on rumble.

这非常简单。

It's super easy.

太棒了。

Sweet.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，确实。

Well, yeah.

所以我很想知道，我们时间不多了，但最近发生了一些不同的事情。

So I'm curious about we don't have a whole lot of time, but there's been a few different things.

一是比特币价格在过去两天暴跌了。

One is Bitcoin price tanked, like, the last two days.

我觉得很多人开始感到失望，因为我认为所谓的四年周期理论已经过时了。

And I think a lot of people are there's there's some people getting disillusioned because I mean, what I what I think is that the four year cycle idea is just over.

一般来说，当你看到一个如此明显、且与比特币通胀时间表密切相关的所谓交易模式时，而如今比特币的通胀率在整体交易量中占比越来越小，人们已经不知道接下来会发生什么了，这种模式注定会瓦解。

Like, generally, when you see a quote unquote trading pattern that's so blatantly obvious and also I think is so relevant to Bitcoin's inflation schedule, which is also less and less relevant now because the inflation schedule is increasingly a teeny tiny percent of the whole volume of everything that happens in Bitcoin, is that people don't know what's gonna happen anymore, and that pattern is just inevitably was going to break down.

但我很好奇，你对这个时代的比特币怎么看？

But I'm curious, what do you think about this era of Bitcoin?

比如，它发生了哪些变化？

Like like, how has that changed?

而且不仅仅是价格，还有视角，比如社会心态。

And not just not just in, like, price, but perspective, like, kind of the social mentality.

比特币现在处于什么位置？

Like, where is Bitcoin right now?

你认为这个叙事、工具或关键点是什么？

And what do you think the piece of the narrative or the tool or the thing?

你觉得比特币正在寻找什么样的动力，以继续渗透世界呢？

Like, where do you think Bitcoin is is hunting for that momentum to continue to infiltrate the world, so to speak?

首先，从价格角度来看，我不是一个关注价格的人。

So first, price wise, I'm not a price guy.

我不是投资者，也不是交易员。

I'm not an investor, not a trader.

所以这并不是财务建议。

So this is not financial advice.

保持谦逊，持续积累。

Just stay humble and stack sets.

但我会说，如果你对周期理论和周期模型的含义有现实的预期，那么这个周期并没有结束。

But I will argue that the cycle is not over if you had realistic expectation on what the cycle theory the cycle model meant.

因为周期模型建立在两个前提之上。

In the sense that the cycle model was predicated on two things.

第一，投资者群体具有在不同时间入场的心理倾向，所以在周期初期，是一群自由主义者、毒贩和其他少数人购买。

One, a psychological tendency for investor cohorts to arrive at different times, so you have this cohort of investors of one kind, like in the very early cycle, it's like libertarians and drug dealers and a few other people buying.

这制造了炒作，然后炒作破灭，价格进入低迷期；到了第二轮，第一波投资者回归，但此时又出现了新的群体，可能是散户交易者，接着是专业交易者，再后来是国家和财政部公司。

That creates a hype, and then the hype breaks, then you have a depression in price, and then the second time around, the first cohort goes back, but now you have a new cohort which may be retail traders, And then you have professional traders and then you have nation states and treasury companies.

每次入场的群体都更大，但相比前一轮，其规模增长的幅度也在递减。

And each time the cohort that enters is bigger, but it's also that you also have diminishing returns in terms of how much bigger it is compared to the previous one.

正如你所说，还存在供应冲击。

And then as you say, there is also the supply shock.

因此存在减半周期。

So there is a halving cycle.

减半周期会引发一个小的供应冲击，这种冲击可能已经被市场定价，但也可能成为新一轮炒作的触发点，因为它能传递出一种激发炒作的信号。

The halving cycle, create a small supply shock that can be priced in, but it can also be the trigger for a new hype cycle because it can just give this kind of signal that will spark the hype.

而且即使是这一点，影响力也会越来越小，因为减半周期正在变得越来越不重要。

And even that will be smaller, of course, because the halving cycle is becoming less and less influential.

所以，我们或许可以接受这样一个事实：这个周期完美地运作了，因为从时间点来看，这个周期完全符合预测或可预测。

So, think we may just accept the fact that the cycle worked perfectly because from the point of view of timing, this cycle was exactly as predicted or predictable.

区别在于数量。

The difference is in amount.

从19千涨到69千，这次却从69千涨到了128千，我的意思是，是的，这确实算得上是某种突破。

Instead of going from 19 ks to 69 ks, it went from 69 ks to 128 ks, which is, I mean, yeah, I mean, it is something.

就像这样。

Like this.

但好吧。

But okay.

所以，现在就保持谦逊，坚持积累SaaS三年，然后我们就会再次迎来好时光。

So, just now, just be humble and stack SaaS for three years and then we will have some fine again.

也许我们会涨到170，然后圆满收场。

Maybe we go to 170 and we'll bring it home.

但更广泛地说，我认为用损失深化理论来分析比特币是很有意义的。

But more generally, I think that it's nice to analyze Bitcoin in terms of the theory of loss elaboration.

你知道，当你遭受损失或创伤时，会经历否认、愤怒、讨价还价、抑郁和接受这几个阶段。

So, you know, you suffer a loss or trauma, and you'll get denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance.

我认为，总体而言，我们目前仍处于比特币的讨价还价阶段，也就是说，人们还能一本正经地说比特币不存在的时代已经结束了。

And I think that in general, we are very much at the bargaining phase of Bitcoin still in the sense that the phase in which people were really able to say with a straight face that Bitcoin doesn't exist is over.

否认阶段已经过去了。

Denial is over.

我的意思是，你可能还会遇到像彼得·希夫这样的人。

I mean, you may still have like Peter Schiff.

你好，彼得。

Hello, Peter.

我不知道你在哪里，但这种情况基本上已经结束了。

I don't know where you are, but it's basically over.

愤怒阶段也基本结束了，那个阶段人们会告诉你，比特币会被国家阻止，因为它有害，会被恐怖分子和恋童癖利用。

The phase of anger in which people will tell you Bitcoin will be stopped by nation states because it's bad, the terrorists, pedophiles, that's also mostly over.

我认为我们仍处于谈判阶段的最后一个子阶段。

I think we're still in the phase, in the last sub phase of the bargaining phase.

指的是那种没有比特币的区块链炒作，比如所谓的区块链技术。

In the sense that we had this kind of blockchain bullshit hype, like blockchain without Bitcoin.

然后是加密货币炒作，即没有比特币的加密货币。

Then we had the crypto hype, crypto without Bitcoin.

现在我们有了比特币，但在它的两个主要用途上，都被这种折衷的使用方式稀释了。

Now we have Bitcoin, but in both its main use cases, it's being diluted by this kind of compromise use case.

例如，价值储存的主张正被 treasury 公司和 ETF 大量蚕食。

For example, store of value proposition is being mostly cannibalized by treasury companies and ETFs.

也就是所谓的金融纸面比特币。

So, the financial paper Bitcoin.

这已经接管了价值储存的叙事。

That's taking care of store of value narrative.

所以，是的，你也许可以用比特币来储蓄，但别用得那么彻底。

So, yeah, you may use Bitcoin for your savings, but let's not do it properly.

就通过传统的股票市场来做吧。

Just do it through the traditional stock market.

让我们用老办法来做新事情。

Let's do it the old do the new thing the old way.

就像在90年代，管理者们虽然用电子邮件，却还要让秘书打印出来，因为他们还不习惯在屏幕上阅读。

Just like when in the 90s you have managers using email but asking the secretary to print it because they're not ready to actually read it on screen.

再来看一下作为交换媒介的价值主张，稳定币。

And then even if you think about the medium of exchange value proposition, stablecoins.

稳定币，我的意思是，Tether的很多人都是Plan B的赞助者。

Stablecoins, I mean, a lot of my people at Tether, they sponsor Plan B.

如果你想想这一点的话

If you think about that

稳定币就是胡扯。

Stablecoins are bullshit.

它确实满足了一个巨大的市场，但这也是一种情况

It's serving a great market, but it's also a case of

不。

No.

关于稳定币有趣的是，它显然是加密货币中唯一占主导地位的实际应用场景。

What's funny about stablecoins is it's clearly the the one dominant, like, actual use case for crypto.

是的。

Yes.

这是唯一的加密货币。

It's the only crypto.

我总是说，在加密货币的所有炒作周期中，只有两个真正的应用场景，其余都是扯淡。

I always say there are only in the in all the hype cycle of crypto, there are two real use case in the CEO bullshit.

一个是USDT，第二个是Polymarket。

One is USDT, the second is Polymarket.

Polymarket是个空气币，但看它运作非常有趣。

Polymarket is a shitcoin, but Polymarket was a lot of fun to watch.

你可以去Polymarket上看真实的人在押注各种事情。

You could go on Polymarket to see actual people betting on stuff.

那是一个真实的应用场景。

That was a real use case.

但重点是，这仍然是一个谈判的例子，因为从零创造新货币意味着波动性。

But the point is that it's still a bargaining example because the idea is creating new money from scratch will imply volatility.

波动性令人恐惧，因为它可能上涨，也可能下跌。

Volatility is scary because it can go up, it can go down.

所以我们就用旧货币跑新轨道吧。

So let's just use the old money on the new rails.

所以我们还是相信美元吧。

So let's just trust the dollars.

我认为这是不可避免的。

I think this is inevitable.

这是向比特币过渡的自然部分。

It's a natural part of the of the migration to Bitcoin.

而它将由超级通胀自行解决。

And it is going to be fixed by itself by hyperinflation.

所以，美元的品牌认知度仍然比比特币更强。

So, the dollar has a stronger brand recognition than the than Bitcoin still.

而且从短期来看，美元比加密货币更稳定。

And the dollar is short term is more stable than sets.

没错。

That's true.

从长期来看，美元的价值在下降。

Long term, dollars is going down.

但短期内，你可以用美元来规划一个月内的支出。

But short term, you can plan one month for the other in dollars.

在比特币中，如果你没有缓冲资金，就很难为公司做规划。

In Bitcoin, if you if you don't have a buffer, it's hard to plan with your company.

你这个月收到工资，下个月可能就缩水了80%。

You can receive your payment one month, and then you're down 80% the next month.

这可能会带来问题。

That can be problematic.

所以在这方面，美元仍然被认为更优。

So it's still something that you it's the dollar is still perceived as better in this regard.

所以，我们暂时还是使用美元，直到它不再适用，但届时美元的超级通胀自然会解决这个问题。

So, let's try to use the dollar until it's less, but then hyperinflation of the dollar will just take care of that.

而货币真正具有抗脆弱性的最终用途，无论如何都是比特币。

And the only actual anti fragile final use case for money is Bitcoin anyway.

所以我认为，在某种程度上，保持沉默、静待这波炒作自行消退，是一种非常低时间偏好的做法。

So, I think it's to some degree, it's a very low time preference to just be quiet and wait for this hype to consume itself.

如果人们还没准备好接受比特币，那就先用USDT，直到美元超级通胀来临，那时我们或许会看到像诺亚方舟那样的情景。

If people are not ready for Bitcoin, just go use USDT as long as you can before dollar hyperinflation, and then maybe we see it's like, you know, Noah's Ark.

所以，雨即将来临。

So it's going to rain.

我们建造方舟。

We build the Ark.

我们不必强迫人们上船。

We don't have to force people on board.

我的意思是，就在那儿等着。

I mean, just wait there.

当你觉得准备好游泳时，就上船吧。

And when you feel ready to swim, come aboard.

天哪，有趣的是，我在这档节目里提过好几次，世界上大多数人都能使用加密美元，这说明美元仍然是庞大垃圾堆里的王者。

Man, what's interesting, and I've talked about this on the show a couple of times, about being able to have access to a crypto dollar for most of the world is to realize that the dollar is still king of a giant pile of crap.

因此，如果全球60%的价值仍然能使用美元，而不是他们那更糟糕的货币，那么对他们来说，这只不过是一种新的技术工具，帮助他们接触一种他们早已信任、并且比长期被迫使用的货币更喜欢的东西。

And so if still 60% of the world's value can actually use the dollar over their crappier currency, then that's something that then they they see that as just like this is just a new technological tool for me to access something that I already have already trust and have already liked better than the currency I have been stuck with for a really long time.

在恶性通胀期间，南非、南美国家以及其他一些国家的美元化现象一直很常见，这些国家拼命试图将美元运进运出。

Dollarization of South Africa South American countries and a bunch of different things has been common during hyperinflation and stuff of them like desperately trying to get dollars into and out of the country.

我知道我哥哥在伊朗有家人，我们聊过同样的事：在伊朗，美元的实际价值在急剧上升，这不仅是因为他们的货币正在崩溃，更因为美元在伊朗是稀缺的，他们的资本管制极其严格。

I know my brother has family in Iran and we talk about the same thing is that dollars are actually inflated in value in the country aggressively, not only because their currency is dying, but because dollars are an actually scarce currency inside of Iran because their capital controls are so intense.

所以美元几乎具备了黄金的特性，因为再也没有新的美元能流入了。

So dollars literally have the attributes of gold almost because no no more dollars get in.

不管美国政府印了多少万亿钞票，都无关紧要。

Doesn't matter if the government of the US prints 6,000,000,000,000.

他们不会进来的。

They're not coming in.

在伊朗，没有人能进来，所以伊朗境内仍然有大约一百万美元。

None of them are coming in Iran, so there's still like, you know, a million dollars in Iran.

如果你能弄到一百美元，那可就了不起了，因为资本管制太严了。

If you can get a $100 in, that's a big deal because of how bad the capital controls are.

所以这真是令人难以置信，我觉得这像是两个主要的转变。

So it's just a wild it's a wild thing to see like the techno technologic I see it as like two major transitions.

技术上的转变正在全球民众的认知中，比货币上的转变发生得更快。

Is there's a technological transition that's occurring faster than the monetary transition in kind of like the minds of the people all over all over the world.

因为比特币仍然很难使用，但用一种新工具来使用旧货币却更容易。

Because Bitcoin is still difficult, but it's easier to use an old currency with a new tool.

是的。

Yes.

而且还有使用自由的角度。

And there's also the freedom of use angle.

所以，例如使用USDT通过山寨币通道交易，并不是完全自由的。

So, using, for example, USDT over a shit coin rail is not entirely free.

但与Venmo和PayPal这样的传统方式相比，它要自由得多。

But compared to traditional stuff like Venmo and PayPal, it is significantly freer.

因此，在拉丁美洲的任何地方，你都可以做一个无需KYC的人。

So you can be a no KYC person in any part of Latin America.

你只需下载软件，就能接收和发送以美元计价的信用。

You just download the software and you receive and send dollar denominated credit.

你无法用Venmo做到这一点，因为Venmo在亚洲、非洲的大部分地区以及拉丁美洲的部分地区都会要求你进行身份认证。

You cannot do that with Venmo because Venmo will require you to be identified in vast parts of Asia, Africa, some parts of Latin America.

关键是，识别你是有成本的。

So the thing is that identifying you has a cost.

如果你为公司创造的收入低于识别你的成本，你就无法被识别。

If the revenue you produce for the company is lower than the cost to identify you, you cannot be identified.

如果你无法被识别，公司就会被政府强制要求不为你提供服务。

And if you cannot be identified, the company will be will be forced by government to not serve you.

现在有了稳定币，由于主要市场完全受监管，因此存在一个不错的套利机会。

Now with the stablecoins, there is a nice arbitrage because the primary market is entirely regulated.

但存在一个非常不受监管的二级市场，这让许多今天无法使用 PayPal 的人能够使用 USDT，这是一个客观优势。

But there is a secondary market which is vastly unregulated, which can give you so many people that can use USDT today cannot use PayPal to the same degree, which is an objective advantage.

当然，一些比特币支持者正在为一个伦理问题而挣扎：这些人为什么不能直接使用比特币？这有点像，你有一个海洛因成瘾者，你给他美沙酮，试图帮他逐步戒掉。

Of course, there is an ethical some Bitcoiners are are struggling with the ethical question of cannot these people go directly to the to the to Bitcoin, which is a little bit like, you know, you have a heroin junkie, and you give him methadone to basically to to try to wear it off.

你可以说，是的，但美沙酮本身也并不健康。

And and you can say, yeah, but methadone is still not very healthy.

你为什么不直接彻底戒断，一步到位呢？

Can you not just go straight like a straight edge immediately?

嗯，是的，但至少情况在改善。

Well, yes, but still it's improving.

情况更好了。

It's better.

对。

Yeah.

是的，当然。

Yeah, for sure.

所以我其实想深入聊聊这个话题。

So I wanted to get into this actually.

所以你可能有一些实际的经验。

So maybe you actually have some practical stuff.

比如，我知道你对各种工具非常亲力亲为，但我们正越来越进入一个需要KYC的全领域世界。

Like, I know you you're very hands on with tools and stuff, but we are in increasingly in a KYC everything world.

而且，社交媒体现在也在这么做。

And, like, the fact that social media is now doing this.

这实际上是我可能会在演讲中提到的一点，那就是所谓的‘死亡互联网’理论，认为互联网上非人类的数量比人类还多。

This is actually something I'll probably bring up in my talk, but this this idea the whole dead Internet theory is that there's more non people on the Internet than there are people.

你知道，那里有更多机器人。

You know, there's more bots out there.

这种情况变得如此疯狂，以至于X平台就是一个绝佳的例子——你现在必须付费订阅，才能避免默认被隐形封禁。

And it's becoming so crazy that like, x is such a good example because you now pay for a subscription to the platform to basically not be default shadow banned.

而且正是因为机器人难以应对。

And it's specifically because bots are so hard to deal with.

但正因为如此，越来越多的事情都彼此关联起来了。

But because of that, like, increasingly, everything's just tied to everything.

前几天我刚买了一部新iPhone，因为我的充电接口坏了，我不想在萨尔瓦多没手机时被困住。

Like, I just got a new iPhone the other day because, like, my my charging port was busted and I was like, I don't wanna get stuck in El Salvador without a phone.

整个过程中，不断要求注册电话号码、验证身份，这些要求接二连三地出现，真让我大开眼界。

And the the amount of, like, register your phone number, confirm who you are, like, they just seeing it all in in the process, like, back to back to back has just been kind of, like, eye opening.

这至少让人感到不安，因为我只是

It's unnerving to say the least because, I just

在那部手机上做的任何事情

like, there's nothing I do on that

都会被存入数据库。

phone that is not in a database.

可能在多个地方都有记录。

Probably in multiple places.

我很好奇，你最近是如何思考并应对这个问题的。

And I'm curious how you think about and attack that problem personally these days.

从长远来看，我持乐观态度，因为实名认证太荒谬了。

Long term, I'm optimistic because KYC is retarded.

实名认证意味着你要提供姓名、证件和现居地址，这些信息会被共享给全球数百个机构，几周内就会流入黑市，成为网络钓鱼和绑架者的工具。

So, KYC means you take your name, your documents, your current living address, and you put that in a list that gets shared across hundreds of agencies around the world, and will be on a black market for phishing attackers and kidnappers basically in a couple of weeks.

因此，进行实名认证对你的安全，以及你家人的安全，非常非常不利。

So, doing KYC is very bad, very, very bad for your safety, and the safety of your family.

从经济角度来看，这简直是荒谬至极。

Also, from the economical point of view, it is literally retarded.

当人类文明刚刚起步时，我们是从以物易物开始的。

When we started as a human civilization, we started with barter.

以物易物意味着你需要信任对方，无论是直接交换还是信用交易。

Barter means that I need to trust you, barter or credit.

你需要信任对方。

I need to trust you.

比如，我为你做点什么。

Like, I do something for you.

我知道你是谁。

I know who you are.

你会为我做点什么作为回报。

You will do something for me back.

这在家庭内部、信任圈或朋友群体中非常好。

This is very good inside the family, a trust circle, a group of friends.

也许在小村庄或部落里也挺好，因为信任可以扩展到大约12人、20人、30人、100人。

Maybe it could be good in a small village or tribe, because trust can scale to maybe 12 people, 20 people, 30 people, 100 people.

但信任无法再超越这个规模。

But then trust cannot scale over that.

信任无法扩展。

Trust doesn't scale.

因此，为了不再依赖对人的信任，我们发明了货币。

So in order to stop trusting people, we invented money.