Read_880 - 加密世界的12年...

你可曾想一窥加密生活的全貌？

Have you ever wanted a little glimpse into what the crypto life is all about?

NFT、实用代币、模因币挖矿、最大收益，还有交易策略。

NFTs, utility tokens, meme coin farming, max yield, and trading strategies.

一份全职工作：追逐独角兽、赢取大奖，然后不断自食苦果。

A full time job chasing unicorns, winning jackpots, and repeatedly kicking yourself in the balls.

你可能会认为，某人在加密领域玩了十二年这种游戏后，或许会开始重新审视大局。

You would think that after someone had been in crypto for twelve years playing this game that maybe they would begin reconsidering the big picture.

但你可能想错了。

But you'd probably be wrong.

今天我们有个疯狂的小话题要探讨，一起来了解下。

We have a wild little thread to cover today to learn all about it.

这次会很有趣的。

This one's gonna be fun.

比特币领域的佼佼者造就了Audible。

The best in Bitcoin made Audible.

我是盖伊·斯旺，这里是《比特币可听》。

I am Guy Swan, and this is Bitcoin Audible.

大家好，最近怎么样？

What is up, guys?

欢迎回到《比特币可听》。

Welcome back to Bitcoin Audible.

我是盖伊·斯旺，一个比你认识的任何人都读过更多比特币相关内容的家伙。

I am Guy Swan, the guy who has read more about Bitcoin than anybody else you know.

我们实际上要讨论几件不同的事情。

We have got a, we're actually getting into a couple of different things.

今天我们的节目会很短，但天啊。

Today, we are actually going to have a short episode, but holy crap.

我读了Twitter上的这个帖子，简直无法理解这种视角的缺失和认知的失败。

I read this thread on Twitter, and I was just I cannot just the loss of perspective and the failure to recognize.

我的意思是，我想这算是对所有失误和所谓的'教训'的一种认知吧。

I mean, I guess I guess it is kind of a recognition of all of the mishaps and the quote, unquote learnings.

但有人发了个帖子说'我在加密货币领域已经十二年了，这些都是我学到的'。

But somebody posted a thread of I've been in crypto for twelve years, and these are all the things that I've learned.

而我唯一想到的是这个节目已经快...我想大概刚满七八年吧。

And all I could think this show is almost I guess it's just turned seven or eight.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我们做这个节目已经快十年了。

We we've been the better part of a decade here on this show.

我唯一想到的是，如果他早开始听这个节目，我可能帮他省下数百万美元。

And all I could think is that if he had started listening to this show, I could have saved him potentially millions of dollars.

虽然我不喜欢自夸，但这个节目的核心就是试图从噪音中提取信号。

And I don't I don't like to toot my own horn, but the whole point of this show is to try to bring signal from the noise.

你知道，即便是我认识的人...我自己也做不到每一条我教的课、每一件我说不要做的事，其中很多事我都做过，甚至违背过自己的判断。

And, you know, if people I know and I don't live up to every lesson that I teach and every single thing that I say don't do, a lot of those things I have done or I have even done against my better judgment.

而且...而且...有几次我明知自己在做蠢事或错事，直到最后一刻才突然醒悟：'你在干什么，你这个白痴？'

And and and there were a couple of situations where I knew I was doing something stupid, or I knew I was doing something wrong, and I literally only just kind of had like a moment of of recognition of just like, what are you doing, you idiot?

然后我勉强脱险，真的是千钧一发，在可怕的事情发生前侥幸逃脱。

And then I kind of got out of harm's way with literally the hair on my chin to to save me before something terrible happened.

这这已经是我在比特币历史上多次走运的众多例子之一。

And this this is many times I've gotten lucky numerous times in Bitcoin history.

当然，我也有一两次不走运的时候。

Granted, I got unlucky a time or two too.

但我至少有一套严格的准则来评判自己的行为，能识别自己何时犯傻，并且从那些因极度愚蠢而得到的教训中学到了东西。

But I at least had a strong set of rules to judge my own behavior by and to recognize when I was being stupid, and that I learned those lessons for being very very stupid.

而且毫无疑问。

And there was no but there was no question.

当时发生这些事情时我确实在自欺欺人，但回首往事，我违反了什么准则简直一目了然。

I wasn't I was deluding myself during the times in which these things occurred, but looking back on it, it's so obvious which rule I was violating.

我要说的是，我几乎所有极其愚蠢的决定都如出一辙——我嘴上说着要遵守某套规则，结果总是为一点小例外破例，然后就被现实狠狠教训，或者差点完蛋最后关头才自救成功。

And I will say that almost all of the overwhelming majority of all of my really stupid decisions and clear, I would say one thing or or I would attempt to live by one set of rules, and then I would just make one little exception, and I had my ass handed to me, or I almost did and managed to save my myself at the very last moment.

这些事几乎都发生在我开始做这个节目之前。

Almost all of those occurred before I started the show.

所以这点还算值得庆幸。

So I do have that going for me.

但如果人们真的听进去那些准则，并践行我在整个节目中反复强调的那几件极其简单的事，我要说——我为此感到非常自豪。

But if people actually listen to those rules and did the very the handful of very, very simple things that I have suggested during this entire show, I will say, and I'm really proud of this.

这唯一的原因...我并不是要标榜自己是什么无所不知的万事通。

This is the only reason I I don't mean this as like, oh, Guy Swan's the one who knows all the things, and he has all the answers.

这不是我想表达的意思，但确实让我感到骄傲。

That's not what I'm trying to mean by this, but I am proud of this.

也就是说，如果你听从了我的建议，认真听了我的课程、故事和解释，那么收听这个节目的听众没有一个遭受损失。

Is that if you did what I advised and listened to my lessons and stories and explanations, nobody who listened to this show got wrecked.

一个都没有。

Not one person.

我从未建议他们使用Luna。

I never suggested they use Luna.

每次出现交易所变动或任何开始感觉不对劲的情况时，我都发出了警告。

I warned every time there was an exchange or anything that started to feel iffy.

事实上，唯一让我非常恼火的是——这也是为什么你们不再听到Swan赞助这个节目了。

In fact, the only thing, and this bugs me to no end, and this is why you don't hear Swan as a sponsorship on this show anymore.

因为我仍然喜欢那些人和他们正在尝试的事业，也仍然喜欢这家公司，但他们收取了60美元的费用。

Because I still love those guys and what they are trying to do, and I still like the company, but they took $60.

他们收取了一笔大额费用，这是他们从Prime Trust迁移到当前架构时产生的，他们试图通过这个架构解决Fortress和Prime Trust的所有烂摊子。

They took a fee, a big fee that was from their move away from Prime Trust to their current setup that they are trying to do to fix all of the fires and disasters with Fortress and Prime Trust.

我猜是Fortress。

I guess it was Fortress.

我甚至不记得到底是哪家该死的公司了。

I don't remember which one it even freaking was.

因为尽管当时发生了多次危机，他们却避开了所有问题。

Because they avoided any and all problems despite the multiple fires that they had during those times.

但他们把费用转嫁给用户，然后试图用‘如果你留下我们会双倍返还费用’来弥补，我认为这是极其错误的决定。

But the fact that they pushed that fee to the user and then tried to make up for it in we'll give you back twice the fee we'll give you back twice that amount in fees if you stay with us, I thought was the the very very wrong choice.

那些账户里有比特币的用户突然被扣了60、70美元，听说有人甚至被扣了100美元——具体取决于Fortress那边有多少UTXO，这简直太蠢了。

Like, the user people who had Bitcoin in that account suddenly had 60, 70, I think even some people, like, it was like a $100, depending on, like, how many UTXOs Fortress had on their ends, which was so stupid.

我完全同意他们本应解决这个问题，但Swan本应负责处理。

Like and I completely agree that they should have battled this out, but Swan should have covered it.

我知道他们遇到了另一起火灾，但他们本应申请贷款，并承担相关费用。

And I know they had another fire, but they should have taken out a loan, and they should have covered the fees.

是的，我已经告诉大家设置自动提款，因为我当时还在使用它们，而且由于我确实设置了自动提款，所以没有遇到那个问题。

And yes, I have told everybody set up auto withdrawal, because I was still using them at the time, and I didn't have that problem because I did set up auto withdrawal.

所以如果你自己保管密钥，那就不是问题。

So if you were holding your own keys, that wasn't a problem.

这正是我喜欢Swan的原因之一。

And that was one of the things I loved about Swan.

大约80%的客户实际上是自己保管密钥的。

It's like 80% of customers actually held their own keys.

我认为这是因为在教导他们时传递了良好的课程和信号，让他们理解所面临的后果和风险。

And I think that was because of good lessons and good signal in teaching them, getting them to understand the consequences and the risks that are being taken.

但让用户承担那笔小额费用的决定，虽然金额不大，但确实有点过分了。

But that decision to let that small, though it was, that fee get taken by the user really just that that was that was a bit too far.

我是最接近那些听从我建议的人，用他们的话说就是'被坑了'。

I was the closest to anybody who listened, took my advice to them quote unquote getting wrecked.

我100%祝愿他们一切顺利，并且仍然认为他们总体上是一家很棒的公司，但在我看来那确实不是正确的选择。

And I a 100% wish them all the best, and I feel still think they're a great company overall, but that just really that was not the right choice in my opinion.

除此之外，我从未...你知道的，我告诉人们继续积累，长期持有，关注基本面，并尝试解释熊市中发生的所有事情。

But other than that, I never you know, I told people keep stacking, keep long term, look at the fundamentals, and I tried to explain all of the things that were happening during bear markets.

我试图提供视角，并根据当时发生的许多情况给予适当的指导。

I tried to put perspective and give proper lessons to the context of a lot of things that were going on.

我试图回应所有反复出现的FUD（恐惧、不确定性和怀疑），三轮、四轮周期后，同样的胡言乱语又被鼓吹成‘轻微死亡螺旋’，搞得人人自危。

I tried to answer all of the FUD that was coming up again and again and again, three cycles later, four cycles later as the same bullshit was espoused over to oh, it's a minor death spiral, and everybody's worried.

我努力理解其中逻辑，试图从噪音中提取有效信号。

And I tried to make sense of it, and I tried to pull the signal out of the noise.

如果有人真的在关注并遵循本节目建议，我看不出他们今天有什么理由不处于极佳状态。

And if anybody was actually paying attention and following the advice of this show, I see no reason why they should not be sitting exceptionally well today.

我为此感到自豪。

And I'm proud to say that.

这让我很高兴，因为我没有犯下任何我曾建议过的重大错误。

Like, that makes me happy to feel that I have not made any great mistakes that I have suggested.

比如，如果我曾经在任何时间段推荐过Luna，我可能会想直接停播节目。

Like, if I had ever pushed Luna for any amount of time, like, I would want to end my podcast.

要是真陷进去，我绝对会对自己暴跳如雷。

Like, I would be so pissed at myself for having gotten caught in that.

但幸运的是，我早已建立起强大的经验法则，让我远离这些烂摊子，也希望正确传递给了听众们。

But luckily, I had already built up some really strong heuristics that just kept me away from all of that crap, and hopefully, I I extended that properly to the people who listen to this show.

这就引出了我们今天的主题。

And that brings us to our thread.

对于新听众，我想解释——我需要这个机会说明为什么这些规则如此重要，并展示对立面的观点、另一种叙事产生了什么结果，以及那些人的真实体验，以此对比我们节目中试图灌输的理念。

Because for anyone new to the show, I want to explain I wanna have the opportunity to explain why all of these rules matter and to show you exactly what the other side of the fence, the other perspective, the other narrative, what it produced, and what the experience was like for those people to present it as a dichotomy against the lessons we try to instill in this show.

正式开始前，我要感谢人权基金会及其出色的《金融自由报告》简报，这份宝贵资源涵盖了所有人权议题，特别是关于金融工具、央行数字货币和比特币的内容——比如如何让世界获得货币自由，以及相关斗争中的关键议题和事件。

So before we get into it, I just want to thank the Human Rights Foundation and their amazing Financial Freedom Report newsletter for the incredible resource on all of the human rights issues and the specifically, financial and CBDC and Bitcoin tools, like how do you get monetary freedom to the world and all of the critical topics and events that are going on toward and against that fight.

如果你没有持续关注，就会错过世界上正在发生的要事，相关链接和详情都在节目说明里。

If you aren't keeping up with it, you are missing out on really important things that are happening in the world, and links and details are right there in the show notes.

你也可以在Nostr上找到它。

And you can also find it on Nostr.

这是一份财务自由报告。

It's the financial freedom report.

如果你去找的话，真的很容易找到。

It's really easy to find if you go looking for it.

当然，如果你在寻找一个简单好用、设计直观的链上及闪电网络钱包，不妨试试Bitkit。

Then of course, if you were looking for an on chain and Lightning wallet that just works and has a very intuitive design, check out Bitkit.

Synonym公司开发的Bitkit钱包真是太棒了。

The Bitkit wallet by Synonym is such an awesome wallet.

我特别喜欢他们的联系人功能，以及他们后台运行的超酷点对点系统——很多人可能没意识到这个系统的重要性，它还将与公钥体系结合，参与他们正在重构的互联网新愿景。这个系统很快就要公开了，我迫不及待想和大家分享。

I love their little the contacts that they have, the fact that they have a really cool peer to peer system happening in the background that I think a lot of people don't appreciate, that will also be involved in pub key, the kind of re envisioning of the web that they are doing, and that's that's actually gonna be public very, very soon, and I'm excited to share that.

我们会有专题节目和各种相关内容，敬请期待。

And we'll have episodes and all sorts of stuff about it, so stay tuned.

BitKit的详情和链接就在节目说明里。

The details and link to BitKit is right there in the show notes.

好的。

Alright.

那么，我们开始今天的内容吧，这次也很简短。

With that, let's go ahead and get into today's read, which is again short.

这只是一条推文。

This is just a thread.

然后我想聊聊背后的原因。

And then I just want to kind of talk about the why.

你为何要远离这些东西，以及为何我认为本节目所传达的教训如此重要。

The why you stay away from these things and why I think the lessons of this show are so important.

让我们深入探讨今天的阅读材料，标题是《PixonChain撰写的加密世界十二年》。

So let's dive into today's read, and it's titled twelve years in crypto by PixonChain.

我已在加密领域深耕十二年。

I've been in crypto for twelve years.

以下是我犯过的所有惨痛错误，希望你们能引以为戒。

Here is every painful mistake I made so that you don't have to.

2013年。

2013.

我当时在为一家财经博客撰稿。

I'm writing for a finance blog.

有一天老板说：'如果你接受比特币支付，我会多付你50%报酬'。

One day, the boss says, I'll pay you 50% extra if you take Bitcoin.

我搜索'比特币能兑换现金吗？'

I Google, can I sell Bitcoin for cash?

看起来没问题，我就答应了。

Looks legit, and I say yes.

生活总是充满变数。

Life happens.

后来我就把这事忘了。

I forget about it.

几个月后，相关新闻登上了头条。

A few months later, I see the headlines.

比特币创下历史新高。

Bitcoin hits an all time high.

我查看我的钱包。

I check my wallet.

它翻倍了。

It doubled.

我立即卖出并自我表扬。

I sell immediately and pat myself on the back.

天才之举。

Genius move.

对吧？

Right?

快进四年。

Fast forward four years.

比特币比我卖出时涨了10倍。

Bitcoin is up 10 x from where I sold.

那是我第一次尝到加密世界的痛苦，但不会是最后一次。

That was my first taste of crypto pain, and it wouldn't be the last.

时间来到2017年。

2,017 rolls around.

新周期，新自我。

New cycle, new me.

是时候挽回颜面了。

Time to redeem myself.

ICO热潮正盛。

ICO season is raging.

每个山寨币都在百倍暴涨。

Every altcoin is a 100 x ing.

大V们开设付费群组，我也加入了一些。

Influencers launching paid groups, and I join a few.

我真是个白痴。

I'm an idiot.

我开始和群里一个家伙聊天。

I started talking to one of the guys in the chat.

他给我推荐了几个好项目。

He sends me a few good plays.

我们成了所谓的'朋友'。

We become, quote, friends.

一个月后，他通过社会工程学骗走了我1万美金。

A month later, he social engineers me and steals 10 k.

尽管如此，我还是第一次赚到了六位数。

Despite all of that, I hit 6 figures for the first time.

我感觉自己势不可挡。

I feel unstoppable.

于是我做了任何理性人士都会做的事——把利润换成XRP。

So I do what any reasonable person would do, take profits into XRP.

你猜对了，我在山顶买入并一路持有到底。

You guessed it, I buy the top and hold all the way down.

眼睁睁看着资产缩水90%，六位数财富化为乌有，我愤怒离场。

Down 90% in slow motion, 6 figures turn to dust, so I rage quit.

新冠疫情来袭。

COVID hits.

市场崩盘。

Markets nuke.

被迫以白菜价贱卖公司。

I'm forced to sell my company for pennies on the dollar.

我守着马厩茫然无措。

I sit there with stables and no direction.

于是打开CoinGecko查看。

So I check Coingecko.

比特币1万美元，以太坊300美元。

Bitcoin at $10,000 Ethereum 300.

我全仓买入。

I buy both.

去初创公司打工维持生计。

Go work in a start up to make ends meet.

这时美国开动印钞机。

Then The US money printer turns on.

投资组合翻倍。

Portfolio doubles.

我发现了NBA Top Shot。

I find NBA Top Shot.

我又掉进了兔子洞。

I'm back in the rabbit hole.

这次是彻底陷进去了。

This time fully.

我辞了工作，全职搞Web3。

I quit my job, go full time Web3.

开始炒NFT。

Start flipping NFTs.

有一阵子还挺顺利的。

And for a while, it works.

赚得比以往任何时候都多。

I'm making more money than ever.

每周都有新项目、新概念、新五倍币。

Every week there's a new Mint, new Meta, new 5X.

那真是个疯狂的市场。

It was a wild market.

来自Yieldosaurus的推文。

Tweet from Yieldosaurus.

如果你用的头像价值低于10万美元，请别@我或在我评论区发表意见。

If you're rocking a PFP under a $100,000, please don't at me or share your opinion on my wall.

我根本不在乎你想说什么。

I don't care what you have to say.

现实就是你得更努力才行。

Reality is you need to work harder.

搬出你妈妈的地下室，囤积以太坊和Solana，买几个真正的PFP头像，然后发表你的意见。

Move out of your mom's basement, stack Ethereum and Solana, buy a few real PFP, and then share your opinion.

这次我想聪明一点。

I wanted to be smart this time.

不要把鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里，对吧？

Don't put all your eggs in one basket, right?

所以我分散投资了。

So I diversified.

以太坊、Solana、AVAX。

Ethereum, Solana, AVAX.

游戏代币、治理代币、JPEG图片，十几种不同的叙事概念。

Gaming coins, governance tokens, JPEGs, a dozen different narratives.

你已经知道接下来会发生什么了。

You already know where this is going.

没错，当熊市来临时，全都暴跌了90%。

Yep, it all went down 90% when the bear market hit.

在一个行业内分散投资从来都行不通。

Diversifying within one industry never works.

然后又犯了一个错误。

Then came another mistake.

OlympusDAO，DeFi2.0的狂热崇拜。

OlympusDAO, the cult of DeFi two point zero.

我加入了33运动。

I joined the three three movement.

没完全搞明白这些收益是从哪来的。

Didn't fully understand where the yield came from.

结果发现，源头竟是我自己。

Turns out, it came from me.

是啊，我当时就那么蠢。

Yeah, I was that dumb.

到了2022年，教训越积越多。

By 2022, the lessons were stacking up.

我终于开始套现，把大部分转成了稳定币。

I finally started taking profits, moved most to stables.

后来有人说，可以把它们存到Luna链的Anchor协议里，UST稳定币有20%年化。

Then someone said, park them in Anchor on Luna, 20% APY on UST.

所有人都在这么干。

Everyone's doing it.

160亿美金的总锁仓量，加密领域最大的协议之一。

But 16,000,000,000 TVL, one of the biggest protocols in crypto.

应该很安全吧？

Should be safe, right?

于是我把稳定币都存了进去。

So I park my stables there.

几个月后，我终于深入研究收益率机制，发现到处都是危险信号。

Months later, I finally dig in, start researching the yield mechanics, see red flags everywhere.

我把资金全部撤了出来。

I pull everything out.

一周后，UST和Luna崩盘了。

A week later, UST and Luna collapse.

400亿美元灰飞烟灭。

$40,000,000,000 gone.

我没有赢。

I didn't win.

只是没输而已。

I just didn't lose.

惊魂未定，我把资金转到了FTX。

Spooked, I moved my funds to FTX.

安全听起来不错。

Safe sounded nice.

接着SBF和CZ的闹剧就开始了。

Then the SBF versus CZ drama kicks off.

我尝试提现。

I test to withdraw.

花了四个小时。

Takes four hours.

恐慌。

Panic.

我把所有资金都撤了出来。

I pull everything out.

花了十四个小时。

Takes fourteen hours.

次日，提款功能永久关闭。

Next day, withdrawals shut down forever.

此刻我感到被诅咒，却又幸运。

Now I'm feeling cursed, but also lucky.

我把资金分别存在Ledger和Solana钱包里。

I split funds part on Ledger, part in a Solana wallet.

凌晨三点，有人发消息说‘兄弟，Solana钱包正在被掏空’。

Then at 3AM, quote, bro, Solana wallets are getting drained.

我检查自己的钱包。

I check mine.

没了。

Gone.

Slope钱包漏洞被利用。

Slope wallet exploit.

又一只黑天鹅。

Another black swan.

当时市场相当低迷，正值熊市中期，于是我开始写作。

Market was pretty slow, middle of bear, so I start writing.

打造个人品牌是我做过最明智的事。

Building my personal brand was the smartest thing I've ever done.

它给了我杠杆。

It gave me leverage.

它打开了机遇之门。

It opened doors.

它建立了信任。

It built trust.

但当牛市回归时，我不只是在发推文。

But when the bull returned, I wasn't just tweeting.

我已准备就绪。

I was ready.

当CT在追逐模因币时，我以为自己很聪明。

While CT was chasing meme coins, I thought I was being clever.

我开始为模因币做流动性挖矿，每日2%到3%的回报，连续54天盈利。

I started LP farming meme coins, two to 3% returns daily, fifty four profitable days in a row.

我以为找到了终极策略。

I thought I found THE strategy.

然后市场放缓了。

Then the market slowed down.

波动性枯竭。

Volatility dried up.

我那无敌的策略开始出现漏洞。

My invincible strategy starts leaking.

但我没有调整。

But I don't adapt.

几周后，我一半的利润消失了。

A few weeks later, half my profits are gone.

是时候转变方向了。

It was time to pivot.

接着就是AI代理的爆发。

Then comes the AI agent boom.

我来得早。

I'm early.

在大多数人之前抓住叙事。

Catch the narrative before most people.

买些代币。

Buy a few tokens.

加密推特开始跟风。

Crypto Twitter starts catching on.

我猜顶部已经到了。

I assume the top is in.

所以我卖了。

So I sell.

然后这个板块涨了十倍却没我的份。

Then the sector 10x's without me.

这个周期教会了我新东西。

This cycle taught me something new.

即使你做对了一切，即使你来得早、有策略、始终如一，如果不及时调整，仍然可能搞砸。

Even when you do everything right, even when you are early, strategic, consistent, you can still mess it up if you don't adapt.

现在，我不再追求每次都正确。

Now, I don't try to be right all the time.

我专注于留在牌桌上。

I focus on staying in the game.

太长不看。

Too Long Didn't Read.

十二年的学费已付清。

Twelve years of tuition fees paid.

早到并非万能。

Being early is not everything.

获取利润比感觉聪明更重要。

Taking profit is greater than feeling clever.

如果都集中在同一行业，分散投资也无济于事。

Diversifying doesn't matter if it's all in one sector.

市场转向后别再死守同样的优势。

Don't farm the same edge after the market shifts.

感觉不对劲就是有问题。

If it feels off, it is.

在黑天鹅事件中存活往往取决于快速行动。

Surviving black swans often comes down to acting fast.

公开建设比短期交易带来的回报更持久。

Building in public pays off longer than trades do.

情绪是你最大的风险。

Emotion is your biggest risk.

没有所谓的终极形态，只有更好的错误。

There is no, quote, final form, just better mistakes.

希望这个帖子对你有帮助。

I hope you found this thread helpful.

跟还是不跟。

Follow, don't follow.

别关注这个人。

Don't follow this person.

天啊。

Holy crap.

天啊。

Holy crap.

我觉得有趣的是，尽管这里似乎吸取了各种教训，但我们离真正该学的还差得很远很远。

What I find interesting is that through all of the lessons that were supposedly learned here, I think we're still a very, very far cry from the real lessons.

还有一点要指出的是，每个所谓的'涨了10倍'或'跌了90%'，实际上情况要糟糕得多，因为这些数据都是以比特币为基准计算的。

And there's also something else to point out, is that every single, oh, it 10 x ed, and oh, I'm 90% down, is actually way, way, way worse than that, because that's in Bitcoin terms.

这件事从2013年就开始了，这个小故事始于那时。

And this has been going on, this start this little story started in 2013.

现在看来，当时争议邮件里的比特币价格大约是100美元一枚。

Now, it looked like the the email that was in question during this time was at a $100 roughly per Bitcoin.

我记得有资料显示是106美元。

I think one of the things said it was a $106.

所以当时价格很可能已经远超13美元区间——也就是2013年你能以10到20美元价格买到比特币的时候。

So it was probably well past the $13 range, which is where it's you could have gotten Bitcoin in, the 10 to $20 range in 2013.

但在涨到106美元后，我记得价格就见顶了。

But after it went up to $1.00 6, I think it only ever, it like peaked.

当时有个小泡沫涨到230到250美元左右，然后我记得一路跌到了72美元的底部。

There was there was like a little bubble that went to 230, 250 somewhere around there, and then I think it came all the way back down to like 72 in at a bottom.

但我们现在讨论的就是这些价格。

But these are the prices that we're talking about.

这个人所说的所有盈亏都是以美元计算的。

And all of those profits and or losses that this person is talking about is in dollars.

他指的是美元损失了90%，而不是相对于他本可以拥有的比特币损失了90%。

He's talking about lost 90% in dollars, not 90% against the Bitcoin he could have had.

这就是我要说的——人们对这个行业的现状以及真正的创新和突破存在如此深刻的误解。

And this is where I I talk about this is there's such a deep misunderstanding as to what's going on in this industry and what the actual innovation and breakthrough is.

因为确实存在技术突破，但这与代币、迷因币和NFT毫无关系。

Because there is a technological breakthrough, but it's got nothing to do with tokens, meme coins, and NFTs.

一旦涉及代币，99.99%——事实上我要说全部——

As soon as it's got a token on it, 99.99 in fact, I'm just gonna say all of it.

只要用了代币，就全是胡扯。

Every bit of it, if it's using a token, is bullshit.

真正具有意义的技术变革只有稳定币。

The only thing that's actually a technological change that is meaningful is stablecoins.

它仍是法币的延伸，但运用的是比特币技术。

It is still a fiat extension, but it is the Bitcoin technology.

这是一个类似现金的推送支付协议系统，没有比特币就永远不会出现。这不仅是因为比特币系统，更因为比特币让使用密钥构建基础设施和技术变得合理且有趣，这才使得像Tether这样的产物得以存在。

It's a cash like protocol system for push payments, which would never have happened without Bitcoin, and not just because of the Bitcoin system, but I mean, Bitcoin popularized and made it okay or interesting to build the infrastructure and the technology out to use keys such that something like Tether could actually exist.

即便你今天'发明'了Tether，它与传统技术差异太大，根本不会流行或奏效。

Even if you quote, unquote invented Tether today, it's so different from legacy technology that it would not catch on or work at all.

这需要建立在人们先接触比特币，了解各种加密代币，然后进行探索的基础上。

It needs the base of people getting into Bitcoin, finding out about a bunch of crypto tokens, and then just exploring.

他们必须先拥有硬件钱包或有某种理由参与其中，才能理解稳定币，才能让这项技术真正达到临界规模。

They have to they have to have a hardware wallet or have some reason to be in this first before they understand stablecoins and before that technology is something that actually could reach critical mass.

但当前正在发生的是技术转型，与实用型代币无关。

But there is a technological shift happening, but it's got nothing to do with utility tokens.

这与以太坊、Solana或NFT都毫无关系。

It's got nothing to do with Ethereum or Solana or NFTs.

唯一具有实际应用的用例是作为托管支付推送系统。

And the only use case that has any real application is as a push payment custodial system.

本质上就是所谓的'数字钞票'，由可信机构背书，且基于已被广泛采用的货币。

Basically, quote unquote digital banknotes that are backed by a trusted institution in a currency that already has adoption.

这才是技术转型的本质。

That's the technological shift.

另一个是货币体系转型，这就是为什么所有关于实用代币、NFT、加密货币以及各种代币叙事的讨论都完全偏离了重点。

The other is a monetary shift, and this is why all of the utility tokens and NFTs and and crypto and different narratives for this token and that token have all fundamentally missed the point.

这并非因为他们不理解而错过重点，而是因为他们每次都在追逐百倍收益。

And it's not and it's not because they missed the point because they didn't understand, it's because they missed the point because they were chasing a 100 x every single time they went looking for something.

他们从未寻求真正的理解。

They weren't looking for understanding.

他们只追求那些听起来很美好、能画出巨大绿色阳线的概念。

They were looking for something that sounded good, that was gonna paint really, really big green candles.

就像这家伙其实从未做过深入研究。

Like, this guy never actually did research.

他始终在浅水区嬉戏，因为整个加密货币领域都在琢磨：如何把听起来有趣的软件创意和网络构想，凭空铸造出新代币来兜售这个网络，搞得这玩意儿好像股权似的。

He was he was literally playing in the shallows the whole time because the entirety of crypto is about how do we attach let me get this this interesting sounding software idea and this idea for a network, and then let's print a brand new token out of thin air to sell this network on, and it kinda seems like this is equity.

看起来人们是在购买这个网络的部分权利或所有权。

It kinda seems like people are purchasing the rights or the ownership of part of this network.

要理解我的意思，因为我明白当你只看到这些东西是加密货币时，确实很难看清本质。

And to get an idea of what I mean by this, because I do understand it's really hard to see when you just see that these things are crypto.

所以要知道比特币发明的是一种新型交易系统。

So understand what Bitcoin invented was a new type of transaction system.

它是一套数据库工具，包括哈希链、签名、基于密钥的消息传递等等这些东西。

It was it was a set of, like, database tools when you look at hash chains and signatures and key based messaging and all of this stuff.

这些技术本身都不是重大突破，但至少在其应用场景中是新的——尽管这些技术其实很古老，哈希链的历史就非常悠久。

So like none of that was like a super breakthrough, but it was at least new in the context of how it was used, and nobody had really even though that technology was old, hash chains were really really old.

哈希表和默克尔树都是存在已久的成熟技术。

Hash tables and Merkle trees are very old and have been used for a long time.

BitTorrent就使用默克尔根和哈希表处理所有文件，使其能分割成16KB的数据包，同时仍能验证原始文件片段的真实性。

BitTorrent was using uses Merkle roots and hash tables for all of the files so that you can packet size them out into or separate them all out into like 16 kilobyte packets, but you can still authenticate and know that you have a legitimate piece of the original file.

这类技术其实有很多不同的应用方式。

Like, there's lots of different ways in which you can use those things.

工作量证明机制曾被用在早期密码朋克时代的邮件系统中，或者至少有人尝试过。

Proof of work was used in a really old email system or attempted to during during the early days of the cypherpunks and the cryptography mailing list.

当你观察比特币网络时，会发现它非常精妙——这确实是种新型网络和技术体系，能以开放透明的方式处理支付并记录交易。

So just when you look at Bitcoin, the network, it looks fascinating, and it is a new type of network and system of technologies to make payments and to keep track of payments and to be able to do so in a very open and accessible way.

这个技术突破很重要，但原本可能永远不会被实现。

That technological breakthrough is important, except that it never would have been implemented.

回到我的稳定币话题。

Back to my stablecoin thing.

若非比特币——这种货币、代币、物品，即比特币本身的存在，以及该系统所提供的安全保障，这一方案本不会得以实施。若你并非在保护一种独立货币单位，你其实并不需要这个系统的诸多组件。

It would not have been implemented had it not been for the fact that Bitcoin, the money, the token, the item, the thing that is Bitcoin, that this system allowed to secure, you don't need a lot of the pieces of this system if you aren't securing an independent monetary unit.

许多工具专为货币保障而设，旨在赋予货币完整性，为那些可能被全球任何人数字篡改的事物提供稀缺性和最终确定性。

A lot of the tools are specifically there for the monetary assurances and to give monetary integrity, to give scarcity and finality to something that can be digitally altered by anyone in the world.

你如何实现这一点？

How do you do that?

这就是工作量证明存在的理由。

That is the reason you have proof of work.

这正是一开始将其作为共识机制的原因。

That's the reason you have a that as a consensus mechanism to begin with.

如果这不是你的目标，如果你的目标只是某些JPEG图片的实用性、智能合约或世界计算机，那你几乎肯定不需要这些。

If that is not your goal, if your goal is the utility of some JPEGs or smart contracts or world computers, you almost invariably do not need that.

你只需要能将这些东西与货币交易挂钩即可。

You just need to be able to tether those things to monetary transactions.

我想用这个类比来解释为何加密货币如此受关注：整个加密世界的初衷，以及人们思维默认倾向于此的原因，是他们看到比特币曾一文不值，如今却价值千金。

So the analogy that I wanna give for trying to understand why crypto is such like, the entire purpose of crypto and the reason that the brain on default runs in that direction is because they see Bitcoin was once a penny, and now it's a thousand dollars.

我也想做到这样。

I wanna do that too.

那么我该如何创造类似比特币的东西，但能让我从头开始，并用于不同目的呢？

So how can I do something that's like Bitcoin, but lets me start over, and I'll use it for a different purpose?

但问题在于——

But that's the thing.

网络本身，这项网络技术可应用于无数不同场景，但货币功能将是独一无二的。

The network itself, the network technology can be used for many many different purposes, but money is going to be singular.

我们将迈向最具诚信、最值得信赖的货币体系。

We are going to move toward the most the highest integrity and the most trusted money.

这就是为何当前存在一种主导货币，而我们正见证全球货币格局与权力结构的转变。

That's the reason why we have one dominant money right now, and we are looking at a shift in the monetary balances and power in the world.

实用型代币的概念根本说不通。

And the idea of utility tokens makes no sense.

没人会使用这种充满摩擦的系统——为了使用简单软件或网络，必须持有某种流动性差、交易量低且价值剧烈波动的随机实用代币。

No one would use something with the friction of having to own some random free floating, no volume utility token whose value shifts wildly back and forth in order to utilize a simple piece of software or a network.

这是极大的使用障碍，人们唯一可能使用的理由就是期待代币升值。

That is an extraordinary friction, and the only reason people would use it is because they were hoping that the value of the token went up.

但一旦他们发行代币，就相当于参与了一场金钱游戏。

But the second they create a token, now it's playing a game of money.

它试图成为货币单位，因此必须与价值诚信竞争——不是技术优势，不是交易体验，而是比特币提供的货币保障。

It's trying to be a monetary unit, and it thus has to compete with the integrity of value, not the technology, not the not the oh my transactions are better, but the monetary assurance of Bitcoin.

我的类比是：如果互联网初期就能给各种协议附加代币的话... 要知道互联网已有大量不同协议。

So my analogy is if this had been the case or you could have attached tokens to things at the very beginning of the Internet, we have tons of different protocols on the Internet.

我们有TOR、SSL、HTTP，还有基于SSL的HTTPS。

We have TOR, we have SSL, we have HTTP and, you know, HTTPS with SSL.

我们有电子邮件协议SMTP。

We have email or SMTP.

我们有BitTorrent协议。

We have BitTorrent.

还有用于文件传输的UDP协议。

We have UDP for file transfer.

我们有FTP用于文件传输。

We have we have FTP for file transfer.

我们有IMAP。

We have IMAP.

我们有IMAP以及POP3，用于从服务器以登录账户的方式检索邮件。

We have which is which is just the IMAP and, like, POP three that's for retrieving email from servers as, like, a logged in account.

所以这是远程邮件。

So it's remote email.

我们有DNS，用于谷歌的域名解析。

We have DNS, which is for domain names in Google.

我们有DHCP，用于在各种网络上分配IP地址。

We have DHCP, which is how you assign IPs on, you know, various networks.

我们有SSH，这样你可以SSH登录电脑，它有点像Telnet，但SSH算是替代品。

We have SSH so that you can SSH into your computer, which is kinda like Telnet Telnet, but SSH is kind of a replacement.

Telnet已经过时了。

Like, Telnet Telnet's old.

现在基本不再使用了。

It's not really in use anymore.

我们还有WebRTC、RSS。

I mean, there's so we've got WebRTC, RSS.

WebRTC是一种聊天协议。

So WebRTC is a chat.

这是一个开放的实时流式聊天协议，比特币曾大量使用，现在仍有用于比特币开发的RTC聊天。

It's a open, like, streaming real time chat for you know, Bitcoin used to do lots lots of and there still is RTC chat for Bitcoin development.

RSS就是播客。

And RSS is podcast.

你现在听到的内容是通过一种协议传输的，这种协议能推送订阅内容，就像来自特定地点和特定用户的资讯流。

You're listening to this on a protocol that puts out subscribed, like like, feeds from certain locations and certain users.

新闻通讯也是RSS，或者说很多新闻通讯同样采用RSS。

Newsletters are RSS, or a lot of them are RSS as well.

我们拥有所有这些不同的协议。

We have all of these different protocols.

所有这些功能都构建在互联网之上。

We have all of this stuff built on top of the Internet.

现在想象一下，你可以凭空打印出代币，将其附加到这些协议上然后出售。

Now imagine that you could have printed tokens out of thin air and attached it to these and then sold them.

然后人们以为他们买到了SMTP代币，认为使用电子邮件的人越多，代币就越值钱。

And then people thought that they bought an SMTP token and that if more people used email, the token would be more valuable.

接着他们会搞出些奇怪机制，让大家能集体投票决定SMTP协议的下一个发展方向，美其名曰民主。

And then they'd come up with some weird thing where you can all get together and vote on the next thing that happens in SMTP, and now it's democracy.