阅读_882 - 大接管 [第一部分]

我们逐州翻阅，试图想象在哪里能找到幸福。

We paged through it state by state, trying to imagine where we could be happy.

最终我直接离职，搬回克利夫兰试图寻找更平衡的生活方式。

Ultimately, I simply left the firm and we moved back to Cleveland in an attempt to find a more balanced way of living.

我们在克利夫兰高地买下一栋建于1920年的房子。

We moved to a house built in 1920 in Cleveland Heights.

我们的两个孩子在那栋房子里出生。

Two of our children were born in that house.

那教堂钟声让我想起童年时在韦伯爷爷家做客的日子。

It was within the sound of church bells I remembered from childhood visits at Grandpa Webb's house.

那种强烈的感觉依然存在。

The intensity remained.

最终我和合伙人创办了一家小型投资管理公司。

Eventually I started with partners in a small investment management business.

我形成了这样的观点：与私募市场相比，公开市场存在更大的低效性，提供了更多买卖机会。

I had developed the view that the public markets offered greater inefficiencies and better opportunities to both buy and sell than the private markets.

我懂得如何进行深度研究和分析。

I knew how to do deep research and analysis.

我需要了解市场及更广泛的金融体系如何运作。

I needed to know how the markets and the broader financial system worked.

从参与之初，我就负责所有交易工作，并逐步建立了交易流程、策略和团队。

From the beginning of my involvement, I handled all trading and went on to develop the trading processes, strategies, and teams.

起初我只管理多头股票，后来扩展到多空股票。

At first I managed long only equity and then long short equity.

公司在九年时间里从200万美元资产增长到20亿美元。

The firm grew from $2,000,000 to $2,000,000,000 in assets over nine years.

虽然当时和现在都未被广泛理解，但货币流通速度的下降标志着亚洲金融危机的开始，最终导致了卢布危机和长期资本管理公司的倒闭。

While it was not then and is not now generally understood, decline in the velocity of money marked the beginning of the Asian financial crisis, eventually leading to the ruble crisis and failure of long term capital management.

通过直接处理所有交易，我能看出市场内部发生了重大变化。

Through direct handling of all trading I could see that something significant had changed in the internals of the market.

我很清楚这不仅是危机氛围，而是一场真正危机的开端。

It was plain to me that this was not just an atmosphere of crisis, but the beginning of a real crisis.

鲜有人持相同见解，这正是我们公司内部冲突的根源。

Few have the same sense, and this was the cause of conflict within our firm.

在动荡时期，最佳策略是逢高卖出、逢低买入。

It is best in a turbulent time to sell the peaks and buy the dips.

有些人则喜欢反其道而行之。

Some people like to do it the other way around.

大约此时，我们三岁的孩子——一个刚开始识字的小家伙——拿起报纸的股票版惊呼：‘这上面写着‘哦不’！’8月27日星期四，我带着孩子们前往加拿大进行为期四天的独木舟之旅，这是我们1998年唯一的假期。

At about this time, our third child, a pre reader, picked up the stock listing from the newspaper and exclaimed, This says oh no!' On Thursday, August 27, I left with my children for a long weekend canoe trip in Canada, this being our only vacation for the 1998.

周四早晨我从独木舟租赁处给办公室打了电话，之后便无法使用任何通讯设备。

I called into the office Thursday morning from the canoe livery and was then without access to telephones.

我不在期间，公司下达指令解除了所有保护对冲基金的空头头寸，并召集员工宣布我将离职。

While I was away, instructions were given to remove the entire short position protecting the hedge fund from loss, and the employees were called together to announce that I would be leaving the firm.

当我正与家人享受片刻天伦之乐时，对这些变故全然不知。

This was all unbeknownst to me as I was enjoying a tiny bit of life with my family.

8月31日周一我提早到办公室时，惊愕地得知自己在荒野期间发生的剧变。

Arriving early in the office on Monday, August 31, I was stunned to learn of what had transpired while I had been in the wilderness.

更令我震惊的是，我被告知发生了内部政变，从即刻起我将独自全权负责对冲基金——且不容置疑。

To my further amazement, I was informed that there had been a palace revolt and that from that moment going forward I would have unquestioned sole responsibility for the hedge fund.

或许这残酷的决定源于所有对冲保护已被撤除，加之全面市场崩盘的危机迫在眉睫。

Perhaps this was due to the grim fact that all of the hedges had been removed in combination with the imminent responsibility of a full blown market crash.

当日除道琼斯三十指数遭遇史上第二大点数下跌外，所有市场指数均创下单日最大跌幅纪录。

This day would see the largest ever point declines in all market indices other than the Dow thirty, which suffered the second highest point decline in history.

若非我在开盘时做空基金全部资产，我们的对冲基金当日将亏损10%。

Our hedge fund would have lost 10% on the day, however at the open I shorted the entire value of the fund.

临近收盘时，我看到了纯粹的恐慌性抛售。

Late in the day I could see sheer panic selling.

当时我们正处于可以趁恐慌买入的有利位置。

We were then in a position to buy into the panic.

我在低位平掉了全部空头头寸。

I covered the entire short position at the low.

正是通过这些极其惊险的操作，基金奇迹般地避免了损失，最终以持平收盘。

Only through these extremely stressful moves was the fund miraculously protected from loss, ending flat on the day.

纳斯达克综合指数当日收跌8.6点。

The NASDAQ Composite finished down 8.6 on the day.

此时对冲基金资产约6000万美元。随后三年间，规模增长至超过13亿美元。到90年代末，我已意识到央行货币创造正在碾压实体经济，美联储的举措决定着金融市场走向。

At this time, the assets in the hedge fund were approximately $60,000,000 Over the next three years, this grew to more than 1,300,000,000.0 By the late 1990s, I had understood that money creation by central banks was dwarfing real economic activity, and that the actions of the Federal Reserve were determining the direction of financial markets.

这在当时甚至被我的合伙人视为阴谋论。

This was considered to be conspiracy theory at the time even by my partners.

我开发了一种通过货币供应增速变化来预判金融市场转向的方法。

I developed a way to anticipate changes in the direction of the financial markets based on changes in the rate of growth of the money supply.

这主要是由纽约联储的公开市场操作驱动的。

This was being driven by open market operations of the New York Fed.

到互联网泡沫时期，我已知道货币流通速度开始崩溃。

By the time of the dot com bubble, I knew that the velocity of money had begun collapsing.

我目睹了货币创造的惊人扩张却只带来微弱增长。

I saw incredible escalation in money creation engendering little growth.

我认为在未来多年的巨大演变中，必将出现大萧条，唯一的问题只是是否会爆发全球战争。

I believed that in some great unfolding over many years there would be a major depression and that the only question was whether or not there would be a global war.

这是在911事件之前。

This was prior to nine eleven.

我开发了一种方法，在空头侧使用数百个精心挑选的头寸，被称为'垃圾中的精华'。

I developed a way of using hundreds of carefully selected positions on the short side, dubbed the cream of the crap.

使用这个系统，没有一个头寸能对我们造成严重伤害，如果我操作得当，它的效果会远胜于指数。

Using this system, no one position could hurt us badly and if I did it right, it would work much better than an index.

多头侧更为集中，尽管任何时候我们通常持有的头寸都超过350个。

The long side was more concentrated, although at any moment we typically had on more than three fifty positions.

操作如此大量的头寸需要特别设计的交易台和团队协作技术。

Working such a large number required a specially designed trading desk and team technique.

我们经常站在交易流的对立面，耐心地通过买卖价差吸引大额交易。

We regularly positioned on the other side of trading flows, patiently drawing size to us across the bidask spread.

观察和试探这么多头寸让我们获得了广泛、实时的市场敏感度或颗粒度。

Observing and probing this many positions gave us broad, real time market sensitivity or granularity.

我们能够在不影响市场的情况下进行大额交易，利用多个头寸的可用流动性。

We could move size without moving the market, utilizing available liquidity across many positions.

交易台就像新闻编辑室，实时监控所有发布的信息并进行持续研究。

The trading desk functioned as a newsroom, seeing everything as it was released and conducting continuous research.

如果某个头寸在没有消息的情况下异动，我们会紧急调查原因。

If a position was moving without news, we moved to find out why with urgency.

必须持续谨慎地维护和挑战这个整合模型——关于世界如何运转以及我们所有头寸的模型。

It was necessary to carefully and continuously feed and challenge an integrated model of how the world was working and of all of our positions.

这个模型不在纸上，而是在我的脑海中。

This model was not on paper, it was in my head.

这让我们在面对重大事态发展时能立即采取行动，但最关键的是要立即关注任何与心智模型不符的信息或发展。

This allowed us to act immediately when confronted with significant developments, but it was absolutely vital to focus immediately on any information or development which did not comport with the mental model.

筛选新信息时，我不太关注符合我想法的内容，而是聚焦那些与我的认知相悖、威胁我理解的部分。

When sifting new information, I did not focus so much on things that fit my ideas as on those that did not, that threatened my understanding.

当被充分且正确地告知时，直觉思维能产生奇迹般的力量，能立即洞见理性思维尚未察觉的事物。

The intuitive mind, when adequately and correctly informed, can be miraculously powerful, knowing immediately what the rational mind cannot yet see.

反之，若被输入错误信息且未揭露和质疑错误假设，它就会变成功能失调的灾难。

On the other hand, if it is given bad information and if incorrect assumptions are not surfaced and challenged, it is a dysfunctional disaster.

理性思维可用于向直觉提供经过验证的信息，并持续检验直觉思维自认已知的内容。

The rational mind can be employed to inform the intuitive with vetted information and to continually test what the intuitive mind thinks it knows.

通过这两种思维的协作，人们既能深入细节检验，又能跳脱全局审视，反之亦然。

With cooperation between these aspects of the mind, one can drill down to examine detail, zoom out to see bigger implications, and vice versa.

归根结底，深度尽职调查需要阐明自身假设并严格验证。

Ultimately, deep due diligence requires spelling out one's own assumptions and rigorously testing them.

原始文献可能提供无可辩驳的信息。

Primary source documents may provide irrefutable information.

可以使用带有偏见的信息源，但必须识别偏见并在信息核验中予以考虑。

Biased sources can be used, but one must recognize the bias and account for it in vetting the information.

符合偏见的陈述价值有限，但承认与偏见相悖的内容很可能是事实。

A statement that is consistent with the bias is of little significance, however something acknowledged which runs counter to the bias is likely factual.

要真正了解某事，必须直接接触对该情境有切身经历的人。

To really know something, one must go directly to people with immediate experience of the situation.

你无法通过与仅读过相关报道的人交谈来真正理解。

You can't really know by talking with someone who has only read about it.

如果我突然意识到需要了解某些关键信息，有时会直接穿着身上的衣服赶往机场，飞越全国，等待我需要交谈的人，尽管我们并未预约见面。

If I suddenly realized that I needed to know something critical, I sometimes went directly to the airport with just the clothes on my back, flew across the country, and waited for the person with whom I needed to speak, even though I had no meeting scheduled.

这种方法实际上效果相当不错。

That actually worked rather well.

当人们略显惊讶且脱离既定脚本时，直接听取他们的说法会很有帮助。

It helps to hear things directly from people when they are a bit surprised and off script.

父亲曾告诉我，理解术语是在任何领域发挥作用的关键。

Dad had told me that understanding terminology is the key to functioning in any field.

通过尽职调查工作我发现，即使是在技术问题上，也能在 surprisingly 短时间内与领域内的领导者进行对话。

I had found through my due diligence work that it was possible to become conversant with a surprisingly short period of time even in technical issues with leaders in a field.

实践出真知。

It was done by doing it.

第一次对话后，我为第二次对话做了更充分的准备。

After the first conversation, I was better equipped for the second.

每次对话都让我能更精准地聚焦实质性问题。

With each conversation, I was able to better hone in on the substantive questions.

到第三次对话时，对方反而对与我交谈产生了兴趣，因为我刚就某些有趣的问题与他们领域内的两个人交流过。

By the third conversation, the other person actually became interested in speaking with me because I had just spoken with two people in their field about some interesting issues.

就这样逐步积累起来。

And it built from there.

我可以与医生、化学工程师甚至神经科学家都这样交流。

I could do this with physicians, chemical engineers, and even neuroscientists.

他们有时会问我是否接受过他们领域的专业训练。

They sometimes asked if I had trained in their field.

有一家小型医疗器械公司正以高速增长，我对它做了大量深入的尽职调查。

There was a small medical device company growing at a high rate, on which I had done a great deal of deep due diligence work.

我们持有大量仓位。

We had a large position.

该股交易清淡，因此我密切关注着形势变化。

It was thinly traded, and so I monitored the situation very carefully.

我建立了一个详细模型，通过各家医院的复购率来预测月度销售增长曲线。

I had a detailed model of the monthly sales ramp built up by the reorder rate at individual hospitals.

某天公司公布的销售额低于我的预测。

One day the company reported sales which missed my projection.

虽然仍保持高速增长，但在调整模型时我发现某家医院的复购率肯定下降了。

They were still growing at a high rate, but in adjusting my model I could see that the reorder rate must have fallen at some hospital.

似乎没人注意到这点，公司也否认存在问题。

No one else seemed to have noticed this, and the company was acknowledging no issues.

我开始直接给医院打陌生电话。

I started cold calling into hospitals.

好不容易联系到一位刚下手术台的手术室护士。

I managed to get an OR nurse on the phone who had just come out of surgery.

她详细告诉我他们停用该设备的原因。

She told me all about why they had stopped using the device.

那时我就知道这家公司的销售额将归零。

I knew then that the sales of this company would go to zero.

现在我面临一个大难题：如何让所有人全身而退。

I now had a big problem how to get everybody out.

对冲基金不仅持有大量头寸，还有众多个人客户账户，这些当时都由我负责处理。

Not only did the hedge funds have a big position, but also a large number of accounts for individual clients, which I still handled at the time.

除此之外，亲密朋友和我资助的学校也重仓持有这些股票。

On top of that, close friends were also heavily in the shares as well as a school I had supported.

我们花了数周时间耐心减仓，确保所有人都在无亏损的情况下退出。

It took weeks to patiently work down positions and get everyone out without loss.

我们通过交易台处理了所有事项，包括协调朋友和学校的股票出售。

We handled it all from our trading desk, including coordinating sales for friends and for school.

我确保这一切都顺利完成。

I made sure it was all done.

然后我们交易台的同事才能出售他们的股票。

Then the people at our desk could sell their shares.

这些完成后，倒数第二笔交易是为我母亲操作的。

When that was done, the second to last sale was for my mother.

最后出售的是我直系亲属持有的股票。

The last shares sold were those of my immediate family.

我确保交易台所有人都看到我是如何处理这件事的。

I made sure everyone on the desk saw how I had handled it.

抢在客户和你声称关心的人之前交易，这种行为很卑劣。

To front run your clients and everyone you say you care about, that is trashy.

有些人做事时坚信应该先为自己谋利，尤其是在重要事务上。

Some people operate with the certainty that they should help themselves first, especially in important matters.

我知道这种事时有发生，但这绝非我的行事准则。

I know it is done, but it is something that I would not do.

我不会允许这种事发生。

I would not allow it.

在此过程中，我揭露了某主要经纪商的一些机构经纪人，他们暗中安排复制我的交易并从中搭便车。

In the course of this, I flushed out certain institutional brokers at a certain prime broker who had arranged to be secretly copied on my trades and were piggybacking them.

现在我怀疑，在接近尾声时，这些主要经纪商允许交易员抢在我的月末清算前进行交易。

I now suspect that toward the end, the prime brokers were allowing traders to front run my month end liquidations.

我们动用了整个资产负债表。

We used the entire balance sheet.

在市场大幅波动的日子里，我们交易了数百万股股票，可能盈利或亏损数千万美元。

On days with big market moves, we traded millions of shares, and might have gained or lost tens of millions of dollars.

处理这种情况需要情绪冷静和高度专注。

Handling this required emotional calm and intense focus.

我曾告诉妻子，这就像行为艺术。

I have told my wife that it was like performance art.

自负会蒙蔽判断力，尤其是在利害攸关时。

The ego clouds judgment, and particularly when much is at stake.

我养成了一种习惯：将注意力放在自身之外，真正把对他人职责和责任置于个人利益之上。

I made a practice of focusing outside of myself and of actually placing duty and responsibility to others ahead of my own interests.

对我来说，工作不是为了赚钱。

For me, my work was not about making money.

它必须有更高意义，否则我无法承担其中的巨大压力。

It had to be about more than that, or I could not have carried the immense burden of it all.

我的客户包括一位美国前...

My clients included a former U.

S.

S.

财政部长、网络联邦储备银行前行长，以及一些最大的机构投资者。

Treasury Secretary, a former president of the Network Federal Reserve Bank, and some of the largest institutional investors.

来自瑞士的人们飞抵克利夫兰。

People from Switzerland flew into Cleveland.

他们试图理解我行事方式的秘密。

They were trying to understand the secret of how I was doing what I was doing.

但并没有什么秘密算法。

But there was no secret algorithm.

这是一种思维方式。

It was a way of thinking.

母亲问我读过哪些课程或书籍才学会这些。

My mother asked what courses I had taken or books I had read to teach me to do what I was doing.

我回答：'妈妈，没有书解释过这些'。

I responded, Mom, there are no books explaining this.

忙于吸收媒体、政府官员、企业高管等喉舌的声明，会制造一种知晓一切的错觉。

Busying oneself with absorbing the pronouncements of media, government officials, business executives, and such mouthpieces creates an illusion of being informed.

正如塞缪尔·克莱门斯所说：'致命的不是你不知道的事，而是你确信不疑却并非如此的事'。

As Samuel Clemens said, It's not what you don't know that kills you, it's what you know for sure that isn't so.

通过惨痛经历我明白：虽然了解真相很难，但识破谎言却相当容易。

Through hard experience I came to know that, while it may be quite difficult to know the truth, it is fairly easy to detect lies.

当涉及巨额金钱或不受约束的自我时，人们往往会做出令人失望的行为。

People behave in disappointing ways when large amounts of money or unrestrained ego are involved.

两者兼具，必生祸端。

With both, there is sure to be trouble.

当我发现自己成为一场蓄谋已久的背叛目标时，我感到沮丧并决定重新开始。

When I discovered that I had been the target of a long planned betrayal, I was dismayed and chose to begin again.

重新开始意味着要清算我一直在管理的对冲基金。

Starting over meant liquidating the hedge funds I had been managing.

在1998年9月1日至2002年11月9日期间，当我清算这些基金时，它们的总回报率为258%，扣除费用后的毛回报率超过320%。

Between 09/01/1998 and 11/09/2002, when I liquidated the funds, the total return on those funds was 258%, net of fees the gross return was over 320%.

相比之下，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数在此期间均出现下跌，这段时间跨越了互联网泡沫的极端繁荣与破灭。

In comparison, the S and P 500 and the NASDAQ indices had declined over this period, which spanned the extremes of the .com bubble and bust.

如果说世界上有任何基金在这段时期的表现与我的一样好，那也是凤毛麟角。

If there were any funds in the world that did as well through this period as did mine, they were few.

这些结果都经过审计。

These results were audited.

此外，它们现在是现金对现金的回报，因此客户知道这些回报绝对真实且令人惊叹。

Further, they were now cash on cash returns and so clients knew them to be absolutely and stunningly real.

收到对账单是一回事，实际收到资金则是另一回事。

It's one thing to receive statements, it's quite another to actually have received the funds.

一位客户立即打来电话，提出用十亿美元支持我，解释说这样我就不需要筹集资金了。

One client called immediately and offered to back me with a billion dollars, explaining that I then would not need to raise money.

这对我来说是一个非凡的时刻。

It was an extraordinary moment for me.

我感到非常受宠若惊，但最终拒绝了这一提议，因为我了解到一份附带协议会让其他客户处于不利地位。

I was hugely flattered, but ended up declining the offer when I learned of a side letter that would have put other clients at a disadvantage.

当互联网泡沫破裂之际，我被邀请前往纽约索罗斯管理公司的办公室与乔治·索罗斯会面。

While the dot com bust was underway, I was asked to meet with George Soros at the offices of Soros Management in New York.

我只带了一张纸进入会议室。

I carried into the meeting a single piece of paper.

这张图表显示美国资本支出的增长率已突破历史均值五个标准差，而此前从未超过三个标准差。

This was a graph showing that the growth rate of US capital spending had blown through five standard deviations above the mean, having never in history broken above three standard deviations.

我解释说这意味着必将出现历史性的崩盘。

I explained that this meant there would inevitably be a historic bust.

索罗斯仔细看着那张纸，抬头对我说：这很好。

Soros looked closely at the piece of paper, looked up at me and said, This is good.

他继续研究纸张，再次抬头说道：这非常好。

He studied the paper further, looked up at me again and said, This is very good.

他并未否认崩盘的预测，但表示：他们不会允许股权文化失败。

He did not disagree with me about the bust, but said, They cannot allow the equity culture to fail.

我问道：他们还能做什么前所未有的事？

I said, What can they do that they haven't already done?

他回答：你想象不到他们的手段。

He said in answer, You don't know what they can do.

由此可见，即便乔治·索罗斯在这样的时刻也会提到'他们'。

So in such a moment, even George Soros spoke of a they.

随后他微笑着说：谢谢——意味着会议结束。

He then smiled and said, Thank you, meaning this was the end of the meeting.

一位随从跟着我走出房间问道：你是怎么做到的？

One of his handlers followed me out of the room and said, How did you do that?

我从没见过有人那样做。

I've never seen anyone do that.

能与乔治·索罗斯有任何交集让我既惊讶又受宠若惊，他竟会认真对待我这个来自俄亥俄州的年轻人。

I was amazed and flattered to have anything to do with George Soros and that he took me, this kid from Ohio, seriously.

他确实知道许多我所不了解的事情。

He certainly knew a great deal that I did not know.

但另一方面，我也掌握着他所不知的信息。

But on the other hand, I knew things he did not know.

2003年初，我再次在他办公室会面，向他展示了一页图表，呈现资产支持证券的惊人增长，并预测这将引发下一场泡沫与崩盘。

Early in 2003, I met with him again at his office, showed him a one page chart of the astounding growth in asset backed securities, and predicted that this would be the basis for the next bubble and crash.

他说：‘你疯了。’

He said, You're crazy.

但他对我所采用的方法非常感兴趣，于是我向他详细解释了原理。

But he was very interested in how I was doing what I was doing, and I explained it to him.

他说：‘你掌握了节奏。’

He said, You have rhythm.

其他人也能学会这种节奏。

Other people can get rhythm too.

2003年1月我重新起步时，带着约3亿美元资产和另外3亿美元承诺资金，并带走了24名员工，这意味着没有人因我的离开而失业。

I started again in January 2003 with about $300,000,000 in assets and a further $300,000,000 in commitments, taking with me 24 employees, which meant that nobody lost their job due to my departure.

在互联网泡沫巅峰期，我之所以能对抗美联储，是因为我能洞察他们流动性注入的加速与减速规律。

Through the peak of the .com bubble, I had been able to fight the Fed, because I could see the acceleration and deceleration in their liquidity injections.

我已预见到将会出现一场更严重的崩盘。

I could already see that there would be another even bigger bust.

我感到自己有责任保护人们，必须坚持下去并再次行动。

I felt I had the responsibility to protect people, to keep going and to do it again.

但这次会有所不同。

But it would be different this time.

接下来的几年几乎要了我的命。

The next couple years nearly killed me.

市场向来基本是个封闭系统运作，除了纽约联储的公开市场操作——我已学会监控和解读这些操作。

The markets had always functioned largely as a closed system, excepting the open market operations of the New York Fed, which I had learned to monitor and interpret.

我能看到资金在市场不同板块间的流动。

I could see flows from one sector of the market to another.

要让金融市场的某些领域大幅上涨，就必须抛售其他板块来提供资金。

In order for some areas of the financial markets to rise significantly, other sectors were being sold to provide the funds.

我寻找机会逆向操作这些资金流动和板块轮动，买入别人要抛售的标的，卖出别人想买入的标的，但通过买卖价差引导交易。

I looked for opportunities to work opposite to these flows and rotations, buying what others had orders to sell and selling what others wanted to buy, but drawing them through the bid ask spread.

2003年3月，我开始观察到前所未有的现象。

In March 2003, I started seeing a phenomenon I had never seen before.

在某些交易日，所有资产都在上涨，却找不到明显的资金来源。

On individual days, everything went up with no apparent source of the fund flows.

完全没有板块轮动。

There was no rotation.

所有板块都在上涨，债券也不例外。

All sectors went up, as did bonds.

这不可能是公开市场操作驱动的，因为货币供应量增长正在下降。

This was not being driven by open market operations because money supply growth was falling.

市场内部正在发生前所未有的变化。

Something unprecedented was happening in the internals of the market.

唯一的解释是新创造的货币正被直接注入金融市场。

The only explanation was that created money was now being directly injected into the financial markets.

我当时就对此进行了报道。

I wrote about this at the time.

直到现在人们仍未意识到，这实际上是量化宽松（QE）的开端，比全球金融危机期间官方宣布的时间早了五年多。

It is not understood even now that this was the actual beginning of quantitative easing, or QE, more than five years before it was officially announced during the global financial crisis.

我认为这是绝望之举，再次感到自己有责任保护民众。

I saw it as an act of desperation and again felt my responsibility to protect people.

货币供应量增长正在急剧下降。

Money supply growth was falling sharply.

工商业贷款持续减少。

Commercial and industrial loans were falling.

我怀疑资产支持证券和衍生品的增长极不健康，最终必将引发史诗级崩盘。

I suspected that the growth in asset backed securities and derivatives was highly unsound and that inevitably there would be an epic bust.

到年底时，尽管信贷宽松，经济压力迹象却在加剧，但除了直接受创者外，人们并未意识到这点。

By the end of the year despite easy availability of credit, signs of economic stress were growing, but people did not understand this, with the exception of those being hurt directly.

从媒体报道中根本无从得知真相——只要股市上涨，人们就认为形势一定大好。

One could not have known from listening to the media narrative, And if the stock market can be made to go up, people think things must be good.

公用事业账单逾期的人数持续增加。

The number of people late in paying their utility bills was increasing.

止赎房屋占未偿还住房贷款总额的比例直线上升至创纪录水平。

Foreclosures as a percentage of total residential loans outstanding were going straight up to record levels.

2004年，我正准备在季度报告中撰写相关内容时，发现彭博系统上的DLQ TFORE指数已被修改，转而显示止赎率直线下降。

In the 2004, I was preparing to write about this in my quarterly letter when I found that the DLQ TFORE index on the Bloomberg system had been changed to instead show that foreclosures were going straight down.

我让交易台的一位同事彻查数据序列被动了什么手脚。

I asked one of the guys on the desk to dig into what had been done to the data series.

他致电负责该数据的机构询问。

He called into the agency responsible for the data.

最终被告知：虽然自1970年代以来该数据序列一直采用相同方法计算，但近期方法论被修改，且这一变更被追溯应用。

Eventually he was told that while the data series had been calculated consistently in the same way since the 1970s, the methodology had recently been changed and that this change had been applied retroactively.

事实上，现在每次数据发布都会对计算方法进行微调。

Indeed, the methodology was now being tweaked with each data release.

这样做就能发布任何想要的趋势线。

Doing so made it possible to publish any desired trend line.

911事件后，其他重要经济数据序列也遭到类似篡改，以符合经济强劲增长的说辞。

Post nineeleven, other important economic data series were being similarly corrupted to fit the script of economic strength and growing prosperity.

政府正在实施史无前例的蓄意虚假信息行动。

An unprecedented level of deliberate government disinformation was being implemented.

作为曾投票给乔治·布什的乡村共和党虔诚信徒，我深感震撼。

Having been a God in country Republican who had voted for George Bush, I was shaken.

为何我们的政府要刻意让公众对现状产生错误认知？

Why would our own government work to give the public a false understanding of what was happening?

布什在德克萨斯州仓库发表电视演讲时，身后看似印有'美国制造'的货运箱堆。

Bush gave a televised speech in a Texas warehouse standing in front of what appeared to be shipping boxes stamped Made in America.

这个背景画面实为虚假布景，无意间成为了正在实施的史诗级欺诈的象征。

The image was a fake backdrop, and so it inadvertently symbolized the epic fraud which was being perpetrated.

我经常与了解实体经济的商界人士通话。

I regularly called business people with insights into the real economy.

有些人经营工业业务。

Some ran industrial businesses.

一位从12岁就认识的朋友是破产律师，当时正为一家大型中型市场贷款机构处理债务重组。

A bankruptcy attorney who had been a friend since we were 12 was handling workouts for one of the biggest middle market lenders.

查看他们包含2000多家中型企业的数据库时，他告诉我共同点是这些企业都在尽快关闭美国本土制造业务，将生产外包到中国。

Viewing their database of more than 2,000 middle market companies, he told me the commonality was that they were all shutting down US manufacturing as quickly as possible and outsourcing to China.

这样做可以增加几十个百分点的毛利润。

Tens of percentage points in gross profit could be picked up by doing so.

这是在追逐短期利润，但代价是失去工业基础及其他更多东西。

It was about chasing short term profits, but then you've lost your industrial base and more.

艾伦·格林斯潘在参议院作证时，曾谈论所谓技术投资驱动的生产力奇迹。

In Senate testimony, Alan Greenspan was talking about the productivity miracle supposedly being driven by technology investment.

当时这位'大师'被默认具有超凡智慧，而他当然仁慈地运用这种智慧守护美国经济。

In those days, quote, the maestro was implicitly regarded as possessing superhuman wisdom, which he, of course, used benevolently in his role as the guardian of The US economy.

或许他那时足够聪明，知道生产力只是简单地用销售额除以工时计算得出。

Perhaps then he was smart enough to know that productivity is simply calculated as sales per hours worked.

作为美联储主席和经济学家，他肯定知道这是工时减少所致——因为美国制造业岗位正在流失。

As Fed chairman and as an economist, he must have known that this was being driven by falling hours worked, by people losing their jobs as U.

美国

S.

制造业纷纷关闭并将业务外包，而消费支出仅靠大规模货币创造和债务扩张得以维持。

Manufacturing was being shut down and outsourced, and that spending was only being maintained through massive money creation and debt expansion.

人们被允许甚至鼓励在失去生计的同时进一步负债。

People were permitted and invited to go deeper into debt while losing their livelihoods.

这就是奇迹所在。

That was the miracle.

当州和地方政府税基被掏空时，美联储的货币政策却在金融资产中吹起巨大泡沫。

While the tax bases of state and local governments were being gutted, the Fed's monetary policy was inflating a massive bubble in financial assets.

认识到这两个事实后，这位大师本应倡导什么？

In recognition of these two facts, what could the maestro have advocated?

若以服务公众利益为目标，本应建议对货币政策催生的暴利金融收益征税，并将收入循环用于对失去税基的社区进行财政支持。

If the objective had been to serve the interests of the public, one would have recommended taxing the windfall financial gains that were driven by the monetary policy and cycling the proceeds into fiscal support to communities, which were losing their tax base.

实际做法却恰恰相反。

The opposite was done.

股息和资本利得税被大幅削减。

Taxes on dividends and capital gains were cut substantially.

州和地方政府被迫在增税的同时削减服务。

State and local governments were forced to increase taxes while cutting services.

这一蓄意选择将摧毁城市、乡镇、社区及其居民。

This deliberate choice would destroy cities, towns, communities, and the people in them.

这就是为什么房屋止赎率和公用事业欠费会达到创纪录水平，也是为什么要修改包括DLQT4指数在内的经济数据计算方法。

This is why home foreclosures and utility delinquencies were going to record levels, and this is why the calculation of economic data was being changed, including that of the DLQT4 index.

美联储主席的职责是什么？

What is the job of the Fed Chairman?

就这位大师而言，其职责似乎就是掩盖正在发生的真相。

In the case of the Maestro it seems to have been to obfuscate what was really happening.

他为什么要那么做？

Why would he do that?

美联储主席并非为公众服务。

The Fed chairman does not work for the public.

他为那些掌控美联储的人工作。

He works for the people who own and control the Fed.

你们无权知道这些人是谁。

You are not allowed to know who these people are.

为什么掌控美联储的人要刻意掩盖正在发生的事？

Why would the people who control the Fed wish to obfuscate what was happening?

现在我们说到点子上了。

Now we are getting somewhere.

这背后隐藏着更庞大、更深远的东西。

There is something much, much bigger behind this.

这就是本书要揭示的内容。

That's what this book is about.

为何在信贷环境恶化时债务仍在扩张？

How was debt expanded while credit conditions were deteriorating?

必须制造一个大胆的弥天谎言——风险不存在，尤其无需担忧借款人偿还债务的能力。

It was necessary to create a massive audacious illusion that there was no risk, specifically that there need be no concern about the ability of borrowers to repay financial obligations.

这个骗局如此成功，以至于银行放弃了风险评估职能，甚至提供超过房屋购买价的抵押贷款，让借款人在交割时还能拿到现金。

The scheme worked so well that banks discontinued their risk underwriting functions while offering mortgages for more than the purchase price of a home so that borrowers received cash back at the closing.

贷款甚至可以发放给失业且无收入的人群——这正是他们需要的。

Loans could even be given to people who were unemployed and had no income just what was needed.

整个全球金融体系被激进地转向贷款发起和证券化，将其转化为资产支持证券，并用这些证券填满资产负债表。

The entire global financial system was moved aggressively to origination and securitization of loans into asset backed securities and to filling balance sheets with these securities.

在无风险回报的幻觉下，对这些资产支持证券的需求如此之高，以至于它们以合成方式被多次转售。

With the illusion of risk free return, demand for these asset backed securities was so high that they were sold many times over on a synthetic basis, I.

E。

E.

作为衍生工具。

As derivative instruments.

有一则呆伯特漫画中，邪恶的道格伯特说：'招股说明书'在拉丁语中

There was a Dilbert comic in which the evil Dogbert said, Prospectus is Latin.

意思是闭上你的眼睛并张开嘴巴。

It means close your eyes and open your mouth.

这一切得以实现，得益于极其巧妙的诡辩术，以及信用违约义务（CDOs）——格林斯潘称之为'现代金融奇迹'的工具。

This was enabled with remarkable sophistry and with credit default obligations or CDOs, quote, miracles of modern finance, as Greenspan called them.

当被问及风险敞口时，他表示：'理论上风险将由最有能力承担的人承担。'

When questioned about the risk exposures, he said, quote, presumably the risk will be borne by those best able to bear that risk.

为此奠定基础的是罗伯特·鲁宾和拉里·萨默斯，他们与格林斯潘一起被《时代》杂志称为'三剑客'和'拯救世界委员会'。

In laying the groundwork for this, Robert Rubin and Larry Summers had joined Greenspan, billed by Time Magazine as the, quote, three marketeers and as the Committee to Save the World.

他们主导废除了《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》的关键条款，该法案自1933年起就将商业银行与投资银行业务分离。

They had presided over the repeal of key sections of the Glass Steagall Act, which had separated commercial and investment banking since 1933.

到2002年，未平仓衍生品的名义金额已达到全球经济规模的两倍。

By 2002, the notional amount of derivatives outstanding had reached twice the size of the global economy.

仅仅六年后，这一数字就达到了全球GDP的十倍。

Just six years later, it had reached 10 times global GDP.

其中约10%是信用违约债务。

About 10% of this was credit default obligations.

仅CDO的规模就达到了全球GDP的水平。

CDOs alone had reached the size of global GDP.

资产支持证券发明于1990年代，其原理是将金融债务打包成资产池，再分割成具有不同风险等级的若干层级。

Invented in the 1990s, asset backed securities were created by forming a pool of financial obligations and then carving up the pool into a series of tranches with ascending risk ratings.

设计理念是让任何违约损失都由最低评级的层级来吸收。

The idea was that any defaults would be absorbed by the lowest rated tranches.

这样最高层级就能获得AAA评级。

This would allow the highest tranche to be rated AAA.

但存在一个问题。

But there was a problem.

华尔街难以销售承担违约风险的低评级层级。

Wall Street had difficulty selling the lower rated tranches, which bore the risk of default.

这就是信用违约债务如此重要的原因。

This is why the credit default obligation became so important.

它是关键所在。

It was the linchpin.

通过违约风险互换，整个资产池都能获得AAA评级。

With a swap of the default risk, the entire pool could be rated AAA.

我当时就想，究竟哪个神志正常的人会愿意承担这些违约风险。

I wondered at the time who in their right mind was signing up to take any of that default risk.

后来才知道，最终接盘的是那些大型银行自身，它们被允许或指示成立了对冲基金子公司。

Eventually it was possible to know that it had been the biggest banks themselves, and that these had been allowed or directed to form hedge fund subsidiaries.

这些实体显然热情高涨地承担了违约风险，因为他们知道年底时可以使用估值模型来显示不存在违约风险——这种简单逻辑的依据是历史上从未发生过违约。

These entities had apparently enthusiastically taken on the default risk, knowing that they would be allowed to use valuation models at year end showing there was no default risk based on the simplistic logic that there had never been a default.

这类基金中的普通合伙人每年都能将20%的账面利润收入囊中。

The general partner of one of these funds would have pocketed 20% of the resulting paper profits each year.

这一切正在以惊人的规模进行着。

This was being done on an enormous scale.

在持续上涨的市场中持有大量空头头寸让我们不断亏损，但我认为坚持是我的责任。

With a significant short side on the rising market, we were losing money, but I felt it was my responsibility to continue.

我知道只要能在干预措施失效时保持仓位，我们将成为极少数能在崩盘中幸存的人。

I knew that if we could just be positioned when the intervention ran its course, we would be among the very few able to survive the bust.

我预见到这场即将到来的全球崩溃将比互联网泡沫严重得多，并开始担忧破产规模会如此巨大而广泛，以至于作为对冲基金托管人的主经纪商都将倒闭。

I could see that this coming global collapse would be much bigger than the dot com bust, and I began to worry that the insolvencies would be so enormous and widespread that the prime brokers, the custodians for our hedge funds, would fail.

如果你使用空头交易，你的资产会被质押在保证金账户中。

If you are using shorts, your assets are pledged in a collateral account.

要想对冲就不可能避免主经纪商违约的风险。

There's no way to be hedged without being exposed to the failure of the prime broker.

我常在深夜醒来，明知无法再次入睡，就会直接起床继续工作。

I often awoke in the middle of the night and knowing that I could not get back to sleep, would simply get up and continue working.

我患有慢性胃灼热，这可能导致食道癌——正是这种疾病夺走了我父亲的生命。

I had chronic heartburn which may lead to esophageal cancer, the disease which killed my father.

就像我之前的叔叔一样，我被责任感压得喘不过气。

Like my uncle before me, I was being crushed by my sense of responsibility.

坐在交易台前目睹一切发生时，我整理了关于9·11事件、反恐战争和经济'复苏'中诸多诡异矛盾的媒体叙事证据。

Sitting on the trading desk and seeing everything as it happened, I had assembled documentation of the many bizarre disconnects in the media narratives around nineeleven, the war on terror, and the economic, quote, recovery.

它有一本电话簿那么大。

It was the size of a telephone book.

我把它精简成一个小册子，用来试着与朋友和邻居们交流。

I thinned this down to a smaller package, which I used to try to communicate with friends and neighbors.

我简直就像在对牛弹琴。

I might as well have been talking to the wall.

我需要明白如何与人沟通。

I needed to understand how to get through to people.

最终，我在交易台工作一整天后挨家挨户上门拜访。

Eventually, I went door to door after working all day on the trading desk.

富裕社区的人们根本不想听这些。

People in the wealthy neighborhoods did not want to hear about it.

我尝试在一个房屋矮小的地方推广。

I tried it in a place where the houses were small.

我路过一个坐在房子前台阶上的男人。

I walked past a guy sitting on the front steps of a house.

他似乎对我来此的目的很感兴趣。

He seemed to be interested in what I might be doing there.

当时我还穿着西装。

I was still in my suit.

我给他做了个简短的介绍。

I gave him the thumbnail summary.

他只是用已经放弃的语气说了句：'祝你好运，伙计。'

He simply said, Good luck, man, in the voice of someone who had already given up.

我决定在乔治·布什非但未被否定反而连任后，我无法再继续忍受。

I decided I could not go on after George Bush, instead of being repudiated, was reelected.

我原以为那是不可能的。

I did not think that possible.

这就是我改变的程度。

This is how much I had changed.

绝望中，我把票投给了约翰·克里。

In desperation, I had voted for John Kerry.

后来我成为奥巴马竞选团队的队长。

I went on to work as a team captain for the Obama campaign.

但'你所能相信的变革'奥巴马并未带来任何改变，他的内阁成员竟与花旗银行的候选人名单惊人地一致。

But there was no change coming with Change you can believe in Obama, whose cabinet oddly came to conform to the candidate list of Citigroup.

之后，我不再参与投票。

After that, I stopped voting.

全球金融危机后，人们最终得知数万亿美元的衍生品亏损集中在几家大银行，而这些银行随后通过新印发的货币获得了救助。

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, it eventually became known that tens of trillions in losses in derivative positions were housed in the biggest banks, which were then bailed out with newly created money.

主要经纪商本应破产，但为防止这种情况，它们被转为银行并直接获得美联储新印货币的注资。

The prime brokers would have failed, but to prevent that they were made banks and also received direct injections of created money from the Fed.

没有人被起诉。

No one was prosecuted.

相反，肇事者们获得了巨额奖金作为奖励。

On the contrary, the perpetrators were rewarded with enormous bonuses.

这一切几乎就像是按计划进行的一样。

It was almost as if it had all gone according to plan.

我曾预料到金融机构会普遍出现倒闭，并密切关注着最初的迹象。

I had expected widespread failures of financial institutions and had watched closely for the first signs.

2008年，我注意到佛罗里达州一家小型经纪交易商倒闭，震惊地发现客户完全拥有且未抵押的资产竟被清算人接管并纳入破产财产。

In 2008 I noticed the failure of a small broker dealer in Florida, and I was shocked to learn that client assets owned outright with no borrowing against them were swept to the receiver and encumbered in the bankruptcy estate.

我必须弄清楚这种情况为何会发生，最终发现证券所有权——作为四个世纪以来的个人财产——竟以某种方式被颠覆了。

I had to understand how this could possibly have happened and eventually uncovered that ownership rights to securities, which had been personal property for four centuries, had somehow been subverted.

这一点在雷曼兄弟和MF Global的破产案例中得到了进一步印证。

This would be borne out further in the bankruptcies of Lehman Brothers and MF Global.

自2003年起我就持有瑞典政府债券，但由于是通过美国渠道持有，因此面临美国次级托管人倒闭的风险。

I had owned Swedish government bonds since 2003, but I owned them in The US and therefore had exposure to the failure of The US subcustodian.

我需要找到一种方式，能在瑞典直接享有完整财产权地持有这些债券。

I needed to find a way to own them directly in Sweden with property rights.

2009年3月我飞往斯德哥尔摩。

I flew to Stockholm in March 2009.

由于没有瑞典个人身份号码，我不得不先购买公寓才能获准开设银行账户。

Without a Swedish personal number, I had to buy an apartment in order to be allowed to open bank accounts.

之后才能开设特殊证券账户，将我的瑞典政府债券转入并实现直接持有。

Then it was possible to open a special securities account to which I could transfer my Swedish government bonds and then own them directly.

这样即使托管人破产也不会导致债券损失。

They could not be lost if a custodian became insolvent.

如今这种模式也遭到了破坏。

This has now been subverted as well.

瑞典人对我移居该国的决定表现出浓厚兴趣。

The Swedes were very interested in why I had made the decision to move to Sweden.

2011年4月，我受邀在斯德哥尔摩的一个投资会议上发表演讲。

In April 2011, I was asked to speak at an investment conference in Stockholm.

我演讲的题目是《范式崩塌》。

The title of my presentation was Paradigm Collapse.

这是我首次公开谈论投资者保护机制被掏空的问题，包括证券所有权权益，以及理解这一现象背后的深层原因。

It was the first time I spoke publicly about the gutting of investor protections, including ownership rights to securities, and of the context for understanding why this was happening.

我最早是在美国公开演讲。

I first spoke publicly in The U.

S.

S.

2012年在一个投资会议上，我首次公开揭露证券财产权被颠覆的问题。

About the subversion of property rights to securities at an investment conference in 2012.

现场数百名听众反响极为热烈。

There was a tremendous response from the audience of some hundreds.

当我演讲时间结束时，台下有人高喊'让他继续讲下去！'

When my time was up, there were shouts of, Let him keep talking!

主办方表示这种情况前所未有。

The organizers said that had never happened before.

该会议在某种程度上与政治势力有所关联。

The conference was politically connected in some way.

他们的研究主管告诉我，中情局的人肯定在场。

Their head of research told me that the CIA was certainly there.

第二天，《华尔街日报》网络版刊登了一篇文章反驳我的观点，但只字未提我的名字。

The next day, there was an article in the online Wall Street Journal rebutting what I had said but without mentioning me.

我父亲的表亲嫁给了一个叫鲍勃的人，他曾在美国战略情报局工作，那是二战期间中央情报局的前身。

My dad's cousin was married to a fellow named Bob who had been in the Office of Strategic Services, the forerunner of the CIA during World War II.

他们与我们家关系异常亲密，住在谢克海茨我父亲的兄弟隔壁，每年圣诞节都和我们一起度过。

They were unusually close members of our family, living next door to my father's brother in Shaker Heights and having every Christmas with us.

我表弟小时候常在他们家玩，他告诉我曾发现过德国潜艇徽章的原版照片和一把日本军刀。

My cousin, who used to play in their house as a boy, has told me of finding original photographs of German submarine pins and a Japanese military sword.

鲍勃是耶鲁大学骷髅会的成员。

Bob was in Skull and Bones at Yale.

他在耶鲁的室友是威廉·邦迪，后者后来成为中情局情报分析师，据说在肯尼迪和约翰逊政府期间对越南战争的策划起到了关键作用。

His roommate at Yale had been William Bundy, who became an intelligence analyst with the CIA and is said to have had key roles in planning the Vietnam War in the administrations of both John F.

肯尼迪

Kennedy and of Lyndon B.

和约翰逊。

Johnson.

威廉的兄弟麦乔治·邦迪曾担任肯尼迪和约翰逊总统的国家安全顾问。

William's brother, McGeorge Bundy, served as national security adviser to both Kennedy and Johnson.

他40岁时就加入了外交关系委员会。

He was on the Council of Foreign Relations at the age of 40.

鲍勃的妻子——我父亲的表亲——因癌症英年早逝后，鲍勃离开了克利夫兰悬崖公司蒸蒸日上的事业，开始系统地周游世界。

After Bob's wife, my father's cousin, died young of cancer, Bob left a successful career with Cleveland Cliffs and began systematically traveling the world.

父亲曾说鲍勃本来很快就要被任命为CEO。

Dad had said Bob would have soon been made CEO.

他一直与我们家保持联系。

He kept in touch with our family.

1976年，他在我们家参加了一次家庭晚餐。

He was at our house for a family dinner in 1976.

他解释说已决定将罗德西亚作为基地。

He explained that he had decided to make Rhodesia his base.

我们问他原因，他说：我就是喜欢那里。

We asked him why, and he said, I just like it there.

不知为何，父亲当时在餐桌上公开说：鲍勃是中情局的人。

Dad, for some reason, then said openly at the table, Bob is in the CIA.

随后是长时间的沉默，直到鲍勃再次开口。

This was followed by complete silence for some time until Bob began speaking again.

三年后，罗德西亚更名为津巴布韦。

Rhodesia became Zimbabwe three years later.

当时我妻子的一些家人就住在那里。

Members of my wife's family were living there at the time.

在美国那次会议发言后不到一个月，有个男人联系我要求在斯德哥尔摩见面。

Less than a month after speaking at that conference in The US, a man contacted me who asked to meet in Stockholm.

他曾是美国某政党主席，长期从事与国防机构相关的工作。

He had been the chairman of a US political party and had a long career related to the defense establishment.

他住在离我公寓步行只需几分钟的酒店。

He stayed at a hotel within a short walking distance from my apartment.

我们一起吃了午餐。

We had lunch.

他提议来一品脱麦芽酒。

He suggested a pint of ale.

他让我解释我在会议上谈论的主题。

He asked me to explain the subject of which I had spoken at the conference.

我详细阐述了证据及其含义。

I went through the evidence and implications.

奇怪的是，他随后并未就该主题提出任何问题。

The odd thing is that he then asked no questions about the subject.

相反，他直视着我的眼睛问道：'你的家人知道你正在做这件事吗？'

Instead, he fixed me in the eye and said, Does your family know you are doing this?

他再没多说一句话。

He said nothing more.

会议就这样结束了。

That was the end of the meeting.

我付完账便离开了。

I paid the bill and left.

或许那只是个礼节性拜访。

Perhaps it had been a courtesy call.

人终有一死，而被暗杀想必是最光荣的方式之一。

We all have to die sometime, and being assassinated must be among the most honorable ways to do it.

这说明你肯定做对了某些事，产生了影响。

One must have been doing something right, made a difference.

说真的，没有比这更体面的死法了。

No classier way to die, really.

我一直想成为约翰·列侬那样的人。

I always wanted to be like John Lennon.

我本不想写这本书，也不想与此事有任何瓜葛，但如今已避无可避。

I have not wanted to write this book or have anything to do with this, but it has become unavoidable.

这就像在驱除一个长期困扰我和家人的恶魔。

It is like exercising a demon which has plagued me and my family.

此事必须完成，之后我便能解脱。

It must be done, and then I will be done.

我选择自费出版，因为不想牵连太多人。

I am self publishing this because I don't want to involve a lot of people.

我只求将其公之于众。

I just need to get it out.

我预料会有人试图对我个人及这部作品进行抨击。

I expect that there will be efforts to criticize me personally and this work.

我们已被铺天盖地且自相矛盾的媒体引用信息所淹没。

We have been overwhelmed with unpleasant and contradictory media quote information.

这实属刻意为之。

This is by design.

这是一种蓄意策略，对扼杀批判性思维极为有效。

It is an intentional strategy, highly effective in shutting down critical thinking.

我希望不再加重这种负担，因此本书力求聚焦精炼，以免消耗读者注意力。

I hope not to add to this burden, and so a goal here is to be focused and concise so as not to sap the attention of the reader.

更重要目标是不仅提供信息，更要整合关键信息，让读者理解事件原委、当下成因及表象无关事件背后的宏大目标。

A further and more important goal is to provide not just information, but a synthesis of key information, allowing the reader to understand what is happening, why it is happening, why it is happening now, and what grand objective stands behind seemingly unrelated developments and events.

必须说明，本书揭露的内容绝非臆测。

It is important to note that what is exposed here is not conjecture.

这些内容可在真实的原始资料中找到，规划者亲自在其中阐述了他们的计划。

It is found in authentic primary source documents in which the planners themselves lay out their plans.

我要感谢我那位非凡的朋友，他在无数个不眠之夜中发现了法律确定性小组的关键文件，做出了重要贡献。

I wish to acknowledge the important contribution of my extraordinary friend who found key documentation of the legal certainty group in one of his many sleepless nights.

我感谢那些神奇的人们，他们帮助我并让我活了下来。

I thank the miraculous people who have helped me and kept me alive.

我要感谢许许多多英勇的人们，他们致力于揭露这场全球性的接管行动，其中一人曾说，没有勇气就无法赢得战争。

I wish to thank the many, many heroic people working to expose this global takeover, one of whom said, wars are not won without courage.

你们即将面对相当令人震惊且压抑的材料。

You are about to be confronted with quite shocking, depressing material.

你们不会想知道这些的。

You don't want to know about this.

我自己甚至都不想知道这些。

I don't even want to know about it.

查尔斯·狄更斯笔下的角色斯克鲁奇——一位投资银行家，在面对自己的墓碑时说：'这些是未来必将发生之事的阴影，还是仅可能发生之事的阴影？'

Charles Dickens had his character Scrooge, an investment banker, say when faced with his own gravestone, are these the shadows of things that will be, or are they shadows of things that may be only?

人的行为会预示某些结局，若持续下去必将导致这些结局，但若改变行为，结局也会随之改变。

Men's courses will foreshadow certain ends to which if preserved in, they must lead, but if the courses be departed from, the ends will change.

若说我也是如此，既然我已毫无希望，为何还要让我看到这些？

Say it is thus with me, why show me this if I am past all hope?

我希望通过明确揭露这些不愉快的事实，并在事态发展日益明显的当下这样做，能让更多人意识到并避免最坏的情况发生。

It is my hope that in making this unpleasantness explicit and doing so at this time when developments are becoming more apparent, that awareness might spread and that the worst might be averted.

或许只要我们每个人都尽自己的一份力——哪怕是投资银行家们——并坚定地说'我们绝不允许这样'，这场大规模的掠夺就可能被阻止。

Perhaps this great taking might not be allowed to happen if we each hold up our end, even the investment bankers, and say forcefully, We will not allow this.

这是一个构建物。

It is a construct.

它不是真实的。

It is not real.

大卫·罗杰斯·韦伯。

David Rogers Webb.

瑞典斯德哥尔摩。

Stockholm, Sweden.

2023年5月28日。

05/28/2023.

第一章 引言 这本书讲的是什么？

Chapter one Introduction What is this book about?

它讲述的是抵押品的夺取——全部抵押品，这是全球同步债务积累超级周期的终局。

It is about the taking of collateral, all of it, the end game of this globally synchronous debt accumulation super cycle.

这是通过长期规划的智能设计执行的，其胆识和规模之大令人难以想象。

This is being executed by long planned intelligent design, the audacity and scope of which is difficult for the mind to encompass.

包括所有金融资产、银行所有存款、所有股票和债券，进而包括所有上市公司的全部底层财产：库存、厂房设备、土地、矿藏、发明和知识产权。

Included are all financial assets, all money on deposit at banks, all stocks and bonds, and hence all underlying property of all public corporations, including all inventories, plant and equipment, land, mineral deposits, inventions, and intellectual property.

用任何数量债务融资的私有个人不动产也将同样被夺取，私有企业的资产若通过债务融资亦不例外。

Privately owned personal and real property financed with any amount of debt will be similarly taken, as will the assets of privately owned businesses, which have been financed with debt.

即使部分成功，这也将是世界历史上最伟大的征服与奴役。

If even partially successful, this will be the greatest conquest and subjugation in world history.

我们正生活在一场几乎完全通过欺骗进行的混合战争中，其设计初衷是以最小能量输入实现战争目标。

We are now living within a hybrid war conducted almost entirely by deception and thus designed to achieve war aims with little energy input.

这是一场征服之战，其目标不是其他民族国家，而是全人类。

It is a war of conquest directed not against other nation states, but against all of humanity.

少数人通过私有化、严密掌控所有中央银行及货币发行权，得以操控所有政党、政府、情报机构及其无数前台组织、武装部队、警察、大型企业，当然还有媒体。

Private, closely held control of all central banks and hints of all money creation has allowed a very few people to control all political parties, governments, the intelligence agencies and their myriad front organizations, the armed forces, the police, the major corporations, and of course, the media.

这些极少数人才是真正的幕后推手。

These very few people are the prime movers.

他们的计划已执行了数十年。

Their plans are executed over decades.

他们的操控是不透明的。

Their control is opaque.

当乔治·索罗斯对我说'你根本不知道他们能做什么'时，他指的就是这些人。

When George Soros said to me, you don't know what they can do,' It was these people to whom he referred.

现在必须明确的是，正是这些你们从未见过的极少数人，在幕后策划这场针对人类的战争。

Now to be absolutely clear, it is these very few people who are hidden from you who are behind this war against humanity.

你们可能永远不知道他们是谁。

You may never know who they are.

你们能见到的人物都只是被雇佣的台前傀儡。

The people you are allowed to see are hired facemen and facewomen.

他们都是可弃用的棋子。

They are expendable.

或许有人会自我安慰说这太疯狂了，历史上从未有过这种事——但事实恰恰相反。

One might seek comfort in thinking that this must be crazy, nothing like this has ever happened before, but it has.

若要寻找此类计划的意图雏形、设计蓝本及恐怖实施先例，只需研究二十世纪初期——那个世界大战与经济大萧条的年代。

The precedent for the intent, design, and horrific execution of such a plan can be found by examining the early twentieth century, the period of the great wars and the great depression.

当前宣称的'大重构'进程包含重大创新，将通过剥夺手段实现前所未有的财富与权力集中。

The proclaimed great reset now in progress, however, includes major innovations which will allow unprecedented concentration of wealth and of power over humanity through deprivation.

世界经济论坛大胆预测的'你将一无所有'局面，究竟如何成为可能？

How might it come to pass that you will own nothing as so boldly predicted by the World Economic Forum?

这绝非关乎租赁带来的个人便利。

It certainly is not about the personal convenience of renting.

每次金融泡沫破裂及随之而来的危机中，都会推出一个你现在应该已熟悉的说辞。

With the collapse of each financial bubble and the ensuing financial crisis, a story is rolled out which should by now be familiar to you.

故事是这样的：我们所有人都有责任。

It goes like this: All of us are at fault.

我们只是索求太多，过着入不敷出的生活，现在集体贪婪引发了这场可怕的全球危机。

We just wanted too much, and we were living beyond our means, and now our collective greed has caused this terrible global crisis.

所谓的监管机构曾竭力保护我们免受自身动物精神影响，他们数十年工作展现出的精心努力就是证明。

The authorities, the quote regulators had struggled mightily to protect us from our own animal spirits, their great and elaborate efforts having been demonstrated through decades of work.

尽管出于善意，他们还是失败了，但不应为此受责备或起诉。

Despite their good intentions, however, they failed and can't be blamed or prosecuted for that.

毕竟，我们都有责任。

After all, we are all to blame.

无论如何，让我们向前看。

In any case, let's look forward.

必须重启金融体系，才能再次提供信贷、创造就业并推动经济增长。

The financial system must be restarted so that we can provide credit to you again, create jobs and get the economy growing.

不惜一切代价。

Whatever it takes.

这一次，它将夺走你所有的财产，或者你认为是你的财产的一切。

This time, what it will take is all of your property or what you thought was your property.

这是存入你智能手机的央行数字货币，方便你购买牛奶。

Here is your central bank digital currency deposited on your smartphone so that you can buy milk.

货币是一种极其高效的控制系统。

Money is an extremely efficient control system.

人们受金钱激励的驱使而自我约束，因此无需广泛采用困难、危险且耗能的显性物理控制手段。

People order themselves upon money incentives and thus difficult, dangerous, and energy intensive overt physical control need not be employed broadly.

但在货币超级周期末期，随着货币流通速度（VOM）的崩溃，这种货币控制系统会失效。

But the money control system breaks down at the end of a monetary quote super cycle with collapse in the velocity of money, velocity or VOM.

这是一个持续数十年的过程。

This is a multi decade process.

货币流通速度是指单位货币在一定时期内用于购买商品和服务的次数。

Velocity is the number of times that a unit of currency is spent to buy goods and services in a period of time.

通过比较一定时期内生产的所有商品和服务的价值与可随时支取的所有现金及存款的价值来衡量，流通速度等于GDP除以货币供应量。

This is measured by comparing the value of all goods and services produced in a period of time with the value of all cash and deposits which can be used nearly as easily as cash Velocity equals GDP divided by the money supply.

因此流通速度乘以货币供应量等于GDP。

Thus velocity times the money supply equals the GDP.

流通速度降低会导致GDP下降。

Lower velocity results in lower GDP.

米尔顿·弗里德曼是以货币史研究著称的经济学家。

Milton Friedman was an economist noted for the study of monetary history.

在他与安娜·施瓦茨合著的《美国货币史（1867-1960）》中，我们发现以下观察结论：‘我们有充分证据表明，从1880年到一战期间，货币流通速度必然经历了急剧下降。’

In his book A Monetary History of The United States 1867 to 1960, co authored with Anna Schwartz, we find the following observation, quote, we know enough to demonstrate rather conclusively that velocity of money must have declined sharply from 1880 to World War one.

VOM的崩溃正是从十九世纪开始酝酿，直至第一次世界大战爆发的过程。

Collapse in VOM is exactly what was unfolding from the nineteenth century and leading up to the Great War.

短短几年内，俄罗斯、奥匈和奥斯曼帝国相继瓦解，王朝统治也随之终结。

Within a few years, the Russian, Austro Hungarian, and Ottoman Empires ceased to exist, as did the King dynasty.

德国经济遭受重创，随后是大萧条、第二次世界大战，以及大英帝国的缓慢崩塌。

The German economy was destroyed, Then followed the Great Depression, the Second World War, and the slow collapse of the British Empire.

没有哪个群体能幸免于难。

No populations were unscathed.

不存在真正的赢家。

There were no winners.

或者说真有赢家吗？

Or were there?

当普遍贫困蔓延时，某些银行势力却接收了数千家被迫关闭的银行抵押品，以及无数个人和企业——无论规模大小——负债者的资产。

While there was widespread deprivation, selected banking interests took the collateral of the thousands of banks which were forced to close, as well as of a great many people and businesses large and small, the indebted.

在美国，民众持有的黄金被没收，但最重要的是，央行与货币发行的隐秘私有控制权得以保留，同时维持着对社会关键机构的掌控——包括政党、政府、情报机构、武装力量、警察、大型企业和媒体。

In The US, gold held by the public was confiscated, but most importantly closely held secretive private control of central banks and money creation was maintained, as was the aforementioned control over society's key institutions including political parties, governments, intelligence agencies, armed forces, police, major corporations, and the media.

这个控制体系的继承者们数十年前就预见到VOM会再次崩溃。

The heirs to this control position have known for many decades that such a collapse in VOM would come again.

他们一直在准备。

They have been preparing.

对他们而言，在崩溃与大重置中保持控制权是绝对必要之事，否则将面临暴露、调查和起诉的风险。

For them it is an absolute imperative to remain in control through the collapse and Great Reset, otherwise they risk being discovered, investigated, and prosecuted.

他们并非为我们而行动。

They are not doing it for us.

这并无高尚目的。

There is no noble purpose.

我们现在正生活在这场货币现象的重演中，我。

We are now living within a replay of this monetary phenomenon, I.

E。

E.

VOM的急剧下降始于1997年货币流通速度达到顶峰时。

The profound decline in VOM, which began when velocity peaked in 1997.

这与一场重大全球金融危机——亚洲金融危机的爆发时间吻合，随后几年内又发生了互联网泡沫及其破裂。

This was coincident with onset of a major global financial crisis, known as the Asian Financial Crisis, and it was followed within a few years by the dot com bubble and bust.

在此期间，我管理着多空股票对冲基金，并逐渐认识到美联储正在影响金融市场的走向。

Throughout this period, I was managing long and short equity hedge funds, and I developed the insight that the Federal Reserve was influencing the direction of financial markets.

当时连我的合伙人都认为这是阴谋论。

This was considered conspiracy theory even by my partners.

那时他们通过纽约联储使用国债回购协议进行公开市场操作来实现这一目标。

At that time, it was done through open market operations conducted by the New York Fed using repurchase agreements on Treasury securities.

我开始系统性地追踪M3（当时最广义的货币衡量指标，现已停止公布）的增长率。

I began systematically following the rate of growth in M3, the broadest measure of money at the time, which is no longer published.

我逐步研究事态发展，发现某些单周新创造的货币量超过美国年度GDP的1%。

I studied what was unfolding incrementally and I saw that in individual weeks, new money created was more than 1% of annual US GDP.

这是我第一次意识到美联储正在获得'越来越少的投入回报'，且GDP对货币创造没有反应。

This was when it first occurred to me that the Fed was getting less quote bang for their buck and that GDP was not responding to money creation.

这意味着货币流通速度正在逆转，货币增长现在远高于任何GDP增长。

This meant that the velocity of money was inverting and that money growth was now much higher than any GDP growth.

新创造的货币并未流入实体经济，而是在催生一个与基础经济活动脱节的金融泡沫。

The money being created was not going into the real economy, but it was driving a financial bubble with no relationship to underlying economic activity.

我并非事后才明白这一点，而是几乎实时地看清了形势。

I understood this not with hindsight, but in near real time.

如果我能意识到这一点，艾伦·格林斯潘及其效力的机构必然也心知肚明，那他们为何还要这么做？

If I could know it, Alan Greenspan and the people he worked for knew it too, So why did they do it?

当某些现象无法解释时，必须转换视角以寻求更宏观的理解。

If something does not make sense, it is necessary to change one's perspective and aim for a larger understanding.

危机从来不是偶然发生的。

Crises do not occur by accident.

它们被刻意诱发，用以巩固权力并为后续措施的实施铺平道路。

They are induced intentionally and used to consolidate power and to put in place provisions for measures that will be used later.

到1999年互联网泡沫登峰造极时，我发现货币供应量正以超过40%的年增长率膨胀。

By the 1999, when the .com bubble was reaching extremes, I saw that the money supply was being increased at more than a 40% annual rate.

那时我便意识到货币流通速度正在崩溃。

I understood then that the velocity of money was collapsing.

当经济在货币高速增发的情况下仍停滞不前时，就会发生这种崩溃。

Such a collapse occurs when the economy is not growing despite very high rates of money creation.

请关注图1.1中这份极其重要的图表，它由霍辛顿管理公司编制。

Please observe the extremely important chart in Figure 1.1, which was prepared by Hoisington Management.

人们终于得以窥见历史洪流背后真正的决定性因素。

For once one can see a true underlying determinant of the sweep of history.

图1.1展示了1900年至2021年间货币的年流通速度。

Figure 1.1 shows the annual velocity of money from 1900 to 2021.

历经多次起伏，1930年和1946年处于最低谷，随后持续增长至1997年达到顶峰，之后急剧下滑，2021年创下有记录以来的历史新低。

With various peaks and troughs, the lowest areas are in 1930 and then in 1946, while it grew until peaking in 1997 and since has declined precipitously and reached the lowest level ever on record in 2021.

VOM的严重下滑导致了1907年金融恐慌，这被用作建立联邦储备体系的理由。

Profound decline in VOM led to the Financial Panic of nineteen oh seven, which was used to justify the establishment of the Federal Reserve System.

《联邦储备法案》于1913年圣诞节前的平静日子里由国会通过。

The Federal Reserve Act was passed by Congress in the quiet days before Christmas nineteen thirteen.

六个月后斐迪南大公遇刺。

Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated six months later.

第一次世界大战期间VOM短暂复苏后再度崩溃，最终导致1933年银行倒闭和黄金没收。

Following a brief recovery in VOM during the Great War, it collapsed further leading up to the closure of banks and the confiscation of gold in 1933.

VOM在二战期间有所恢复，随后在1946年跌至前所未有的低点。

VOM recovered somewhat into the Second World War and then collapsed to a low in 1946, unprecedented until now.

当前VOM已收缩至低于大萧条和两次世界大战期间任何时期的水平。当通过印钞刺激增长的手段用尽时，继续创造货币将无济于事。

VOM has now contracted to a lower level than at any point during the Great Depression and World Wars, Once the ability to produce growth by printing money has been exhausted, creating more money will not help.

这如同推绳上楼（徒劳无功）。

It is pushing on a string.

该现象不可逆转。

The phenomenon is irreversible.

因此，'大重构'计划的宣布动机或许并非全球变暖或对第四次工业革命的深刻洞见，而是基于对这一根本货币现象崩溃的确知——其影响远超经济范畴。

And so perhaps the announcement of the Great Reset has been motivated not by global warming or by profound insights into a fourth industrial revolution, but rather by certain knowledge of the collapse of this fundamental monetary phenomenon, the implications of which extend far beyond economics.

某些计划是为我们准备的，但理由并非被告知的那样。

Something has been planned for us, but not for the reasons you have been given.

我们如何能洞悉规划者的意图？或许可以通过审视他们的准备工作来发现端倪。

How might we come to know something about the intentions of the planners, perhaps by examining their preparations?

第二章：非物质化

Chapter two dematerialization.

好的

Alright.

这里是个不错的暂停点

That's gonna be a good place to stop.

希望这些内容能引起你的兴趣，让你愿意继续阅读这本书——无论你是想将其视为真理，还是仅仅作为一个能解释许多不合理现象的叙事框架，我认为其中都包含了一些非常引人入胜的观点构建。

I hope that that got you interested and you wanna follow through with this book because I think there's some really fascinating framings whether or not you wanna take this as all gospel or if nothing else, as a narrative that kind of makes sense out of a lot of things that don't actually make sense.

后续还有更多内容需要展开，希望你能持续关注这个话题。

But there is gonna be way more to unpack here, and I hope you stick with this one.

如我所说，可能会分成四个部分，期间我们可能会穿插访谈或聊天特辑，但我会尽快完成并发布全部内容。

Like I said, it'll probably be four parts, and, we will likely have a interview or a chat episode breaking this up, but I will try to have this out and complete as quickly as I can.

其实我同时在为《比特币的武士道》做试听校对，它的有声书应该很快就能完成，这两项工作我目前是同步推进的。

And I'm actually also doing a proof listening of the Bushido of Bitcoin, so the audiobook of that should also be done very, very quickly, but I'm kinda doing these both at the same time.

另外还有两本书我也在努力推进中

And I've got two other ones that I'm kinda trying to make progress on as well.