Read_891 - 比特币股票与债券的崛起

货币赋予你流动的选择权。

Money gives you liquid optionality.

持有即使用。

Holding it is using it.

比特币目前尚未成为普及货币，因此它主要服务于早期阶段：作为爱好者的货币、情境货币和/或便携资本。

Bitcoin is not ubiquitous money at this time and so instead it serves those earlier parts of the path as money for enthusiasts, situational money, and or portable capital.

它何时会作为交换媒介迎来爆发式使用？

When will its usage take off as a medium of exchange?

很可能要等到其规模扩大一个数量级且波动性降低后才会实现。

Likely not until it's an order of magnitude larger and less volatile.

只有一小部分人理解它并将其作为价值储存手段。

Only a small percentage of people understand it and hold it as a store of value.

它仅占全球资产的极小比例，大约0.2%左右。

It's a tiny percentage of global assets, in the ballpark of 0.2%.

它可能在一年内上涨100%以上，也可能在同一时期下跌50%甚至更多。

It can rise 100% plus in a year or fall by 50% or more during that same timeframe.

由于通用货币的特征是人们在收到后愿意持有而非像情境货币那样快速出售或兑换，因此大规模的价值储存应用往往先于大规模的交换媒介应用出现。

And since a ubiquitous money is one that you're happy to hold after you receive it rather than sell or exchange it quickly like a situational money, store of value usage at scale tends to precede medium of exchange usage at scale.

交换媒介市场竞争非常激烈。

The medium of exchange market is very competitive.

与现有法币挂钩的稳定币在未来几年最有可能实现规模化应用。

Stablecoins that tie into existing fiat currencies are the best positioned for that at scale over the next several years.

稳定币的短板在于当人们想持有超过数月时——它们会因通胀贬值，且可能被发行方或对发行方有影响力的机构审查/没收，而没有任何中央机构能对比特币实施这些操作。

Where stablecoins fall short is when someone wants to hold them for more than a few months, They get debased and can be censored or confiscated by the issuer or by an authority that has influence over the issuer, whereas no central authority has that power over Bitcoin.

比特币波动性太大，不能作为货币使用吧？

Isn't Bitcoin too volatile to be money?

既是也不是。

Yes and no.

波动性并非比特币的固有属性——如果是因其各项特性反复无常且频繁变化导致的则另当别论。

Volatility is not an inherent part of Bitcoin, like would be the case if its various qualities were erratic and frequently changing.

它的各项特性相当稳定且健全。

Its qualities are quite persistent and sound.

波动性是全球其他地区在探索和采用过程中赋予它的特性。

The volatility aspect is something that the rest of the world gives it as they explore it and adopt it.

由于该网络正从零起步发展成为资本的全球海洋，它需要向上的波动性来实现增长。

Since the network is bootstrapping from zero into a large global ocean of capital, it needs upward volatility to grow.

持续的上涨波动会带来狂喜与杠杆效应，随后则是痛苦的回落和去杠杆事件。

And with sustained upward volatility comes periods of euphoria and leverage, followed by painful pullbacks and deleveraging events.

这就是为什么在当前阶段，它常被视为长期投资。

That's why in this stage, it's often treated as a long term investment.

与其他投资不同，它还通过流动性、可携带性和可分割性赋予投资者货币能力。

Unlike other investment, it also gives the investor monetary abilities via liquidity, portability, and divisibility, I.

即

E.

它是一种货币型资产。

It is a monetary type of asset.

如果其规模变得更大且持有更广泛，其波动性将会减弱，无论是上涨还是下跌。

If it were to become far larger and more widely held, its volatility would diminish, both to the upside and the downside.

提问：

Question.

如果比特币以美元计价，它如何能成为独立资产？

How can Bitcoin be its own asset if it's priced in dollars?

它难道不是美元的衍生品吗？

Isn't it just a dollar derivative?

回答：

Answer.

比特币是一种可以用任何东西定价的资产。

Bitcoin is an asset that can be priced in anything.

它可以用任何货币或商品及服务来定价。

It can be priced in any currency or in goods and services.

代码本身并未提及美元。

There is nothing in the code itself that refers to dollars.

它常在国外交易所以其他货币定价，并以其他货币进行点对点交易。

It is often priced in other currencies on foreign exchanges and is traded peer to peer in other currencies.

美元是当今世界上流动性最强的货币。

Dollars are the most liquid money in the world today.

较小且流动性较弱的资产几乎总是以较大且流动性更强的资产定价，而非相反。

Smaller and less liquid assets are almost always priced in larger and more liquid assets, rather than the other way around.

规模更大、流动性更强的货币网络是人们用作记账单位并以其计量大部分负债的基准。

The larger and more liquid monetary network is what people use as their unit of account and have most of their liabilities denominated in, so that is their reference point.

很久以前，美元是由一定量的黄金定义的。

A long time ago, dollars were defined by a certain amount of gold.

最终，美元网络的规模和普及程度超过了黄金，情况发生了逆转。

Eventually, the dollar network became larger and more ubiquitous than gold, and the situation flipped.

如今黄金主要以美元定价。

Now gold is primarily priced in dollars.

在漫长的历史进程中，比特币可能以这种方式超越美元，但目前还远未达到那个水平。

In the long arc of time, Bitcoin could flip the dollar in this way, but it's not anywhere near that level yet.

比特币在成长过程中以何种方式定价并不重要，它是一种无记名资产，可以用最大、流动性最强的货币定价。如果有一天它成为最大、流动性最强的货币，那么其他东西自然会以它为定价基准。

It doesn't matter what Bitcoin is priced in along the way, it's a bearer asset that can be priced in whatever the largest and most liquid money is, and if it one day becomes the largest and most liquid money, then other things would routinely be priced in it as a matter of course.

尽管人们可以自由地以任何方式在心中为物品定价，但期望大多数人很快就能用比特币定价是不现实的，批评者将这一点视为比特币的缺陷也毫无道理。

While people are free to mentally price things in whatever they want, it's unreasonable to expect most people to price things in Bitcoin anytime soon, and it doesn't make sense for critics to describe this as a flaw of Bitcoin.

对于新兴的去中心化货币资产而言，在其规模尚小且处于成长期时，除了以现有货币常规计价外，别无其他发展路径可循。

There's no other path that a new decentralized monetary asset can bootstrap through than to be routinely priced in the existing currencies while it is small and growing.

第二步：企业如何参与其中 早在2014年，皮埃尔·理查德就撰写过一篇颇具先见之明的文章《投机性攻击》。

Step two: How corporations fit in Back in 2014, Pierre Richard wrote a prescient article called Speculative Attack.

外汇市场上的投机性攻击指的是借入弱势货币来购买更多强势货币或其他优质资产。

A speculative attack in FX markets refers to borrowing a weak currency to buy more of a strong currency or other superior assets.

这也是中央银行通过加息来增强本币的原因之一。

It's one of the reasons why central banks raise rates to strengthen their currencies.

这有助于抑制本币相对于其他货币被过快借出的情况。

It helps disincentivize them from being borrowed too rapidly relative to other currencies.

若措施仍显不足，部分国家将实施彻底资本管制以防止机构对其管理不善的货币进行套利，而这些管制本身会带来经济成本——当别处有更好选择时，谁愿意在资本管制收紧的国家开展业务？

If that proves insufficient, some countries will turn to outright capital controls to prevent entities from arbitraging their mismanaged currency, and those capital controls themselves come at economic costs, as who wants to do business in a country with tightening capital controls if there are better options elsewhere?

维基百科提供了有益的定义。

Wikipedia provides a useful definition.

引述：'在经济学中，投机性攻击是指先前未活跃的投机者突然抛售不可靠资产，并相应获取某些有价值的资产、货币或黄金的行为。'

Quote, In economics, a speculative attack is a precipitous selling of untrustworthy assets by previously inactive speculators and the corresponding acquisition of some valuable assets, currencies, or gold.

——维基百科《投机性攻击》2025年7月版

Wikipedia, July 2025, speculative attack.

理查德在文中指出，由于比特币的增值特性，最终各类实体都将通过借贷法币来增持比特币。

Well, in Richard's article, he described that eventually, due to Bitcoin's appreciating nature, various entities will end up borrowing currencies to buy more Bitcoin.

当时比特币价格略高于600美元，市值刚超80亿美元。最初借贷买币只是边缘行为，如今比特币网络已具备高度流动性，市值突破2万亿美元，通过发行数十亿美元公司债大规模购入比特币的做法已进入主流资本市场。

Bitcoin was a bit over $600 at the time, with a market capitalization of a bit over $8,000,000,000 At first borrowing to buy Bitcoin was just around the margins, but now that the Bitcoin network is highly liquid and has a $2 plus trillion market capitalization, it has entered mainstream capital markets at scale with billions of dollars of corporate bonds outstanding for the specific purpose of buying more Bitcoin.

十一年后的今天，当这种情况已成常态时，这对比特币网络来说是好事还是坏事？

Here in the present, eleven years later where it's routinely happening, is this good or bad for Bitcoin as a network?

据我所见，主要有两类批评者认为这对比特币网络不利。

From what I have seen, there are two main types of critics that would say it is not good for the Bitcoin network.

第一类批评者本身就是比特币用户的一个子集。

The first type of critic are themselves a subset of Bitcoin users.

他们中许多人属于密码朋克阵营或自我主权阵营。

Many of them are in the cypherpunk camp or the self sovereignty camp.

从他们的角度来看，将比特币交给托管人似乎很危险，至少违背了网络的核心理念。

To hand over Bitcoin to custodians seems dangerous, or at least against the ethos of the network, from many of their perspectives.

我看到他们中有些人用'西装币客'来称呼企业比特币财政支持者，我觉得这个词很棒。

A term I've seen used by some of them to refer to corporate Bitcoin Treasury proponents is 'suitcoiners', which I think is a great term.

这个比特币阵营整体上更希望人们自己掌握私钥。

This Bitcoin camp as a whole would much rather people hold their own private keys.

他们中有些人更进一步表示，主要托管人的再抵押可能会抑制价格，或者损害比特币作为自由货币的成功能力。

Some of them go further and say that rehypothecation of major custodians could suppress the price or otherwise impair Bitcoin's ability to succeed as freedom money.

虽然我认同这个阵营的价值观并且基本属于其中一员，但他们中有些人似乎怀有乌托邦式的梦想，希望所有人都能像他们一样对完全掌控自己的资金产生兴趣。

While I like the values of this camp and am basically in it myself, some of them seem to hold utopian dreams where everyone becomes as interested in fully controlling their own money as they are.

第二类批评者通常是那些过去对比特币持负面看法的人。

The second type of critic are generally people that have stated a negative view of Bitcoin in the past.

多年来他们一直质疑比特币的成功能力，而比特币却不断创下新高，成为表现最佳的资产。

They have questioned Bitcoin's ability to succeed over many years, as it keeps rising to new heights as the best performing asset around.

多年过去并经历多个周期后，他们中有些人转而认为比特币价格可能上涨，但已被'收编'。

Many years and multiple cycles later, some of them have instead changed their view to something like Bitcoin may be going up in price, but it has been captured.

我对这个阵营的重视程度不如第一个阵营，主要将其视为一种应对机制。

I take this camp less seriously than the first camp and view it mostly as cope.

这类似于那些永久看跌者（Permabears）和股市——当他们的看跌理论十年都未应验时，就会转而声称'市场上涨只是因为美联储印了太多钱'。对此我的回应是：没错，所以你们本就不该看跌。

It's similar to Permabears and equity markets that, when their bearish thesis hasn't played out after a decade, shift to saying something like, the market is only up because the Fed printed so much money, my response to that would be, Well, yeah, that's why you shouldn't have been bearish.

我想对这两个阵营说的是：仅仅因为某些大资金池选择持有比特币，并不意味着自由流通的比特币受到任何损害。

What I would say to both of those camps is to point out that just because some large pools of capital choose to hold Bitcoin, it does not mean that free range Bitcoin is in any way impaired.

它依然可以像往常一样进行自我托管和点对点传输。

It can be self custodied and sent peer to peer just like it always has been.

事实上，随着更多类型的实体持有比特币，网络会变得更庞大、波动性更低，这反而增强了它作为点对点货币的实用性。

And if anything, as many other types of entities hold it, it makes the network larger and less volatile, which improves its usefulness as peer to peer money as well.

它还可能提供政治掩护，帮助比特币相对于那些想伤害它的政策制定者实现正常化。

It also potentially provides political cover to help normalize the asset relative to policymakers that want to cause it harm.

当比特币发展到这个规模时，大资金池入场本就是必然之事。

Large pools of capital buying Bitcoin was always going to happen if it reached this scale.

引自林·奥尔登（Lin Alden）的推文。

Tweet from Lin Alden.

谁说只有密码朋克和自由主义者在做这件事？

Who says it's the cypherpunks and libertarians doing it?

其中不少人至今仍以化名身份开发隐私工具等。

Several of those remain pseudonymous as they build privacy tools and such.

拥有数百万用户的比特币社区汇聚了各种兴趣和才能的人。

Bitcoin with millions of users has people of all sorts of interests and talents.

有些人具备政治游说方面的兴趣或才能，能确保政客保护用户免受政府可能采取的最严苛措施。

Some have political and lobbying interests or talents to make sure politicians are protecting users from some of the most draconian things governments could do.

其他人对此置之不理，只顾忙自己的事。

Others ignore it and do their own work.

这就是拥有庞大网络的优势。

That's the benefit of having a large network.

我在比特币看跌者中观察到一种自我安慰的倾向（并非特指你），他们以‘政府不会允许’为由，将其作为多年前不看好比特币的辩解依据。

One of the cope tendencies I've seen among Bitcoin bears, not putting you in this camp per se, is that they say the state wouldn't allow it, which shut it down as a justification for not being bullish years ago.

后来随着网络规模暴增，部分政客出于反大政府立场或利益驱使开始支持，这些看跌者又转而声称‘比特币已迷失方向、被收编’，以此维持看空立场——即便价格飙升且网络日益强健。

Then as the network grew massively and a subset of politicians liked it, either because they have anti big state views themselves or because money speaks, those bears shift to, well, now it's lost its way, now it is captured, as a way to continue to be bearish on the idea even as the price soars and the network strengthens.

多年前看涨的核心逻辑之一，就是预见到这类博弈演变。

Part of being bullish years ago was understanding this type of game theory.

比特币是个兼容并蓄的生态。

Bitcoin is a big tent.

它自由开放、密码朋克、全球通行。

It's free range and cypherpunk and global.

人们可以无需许可地匿名在其上构建。

People can build on it permissionlessly and anonymously.

企业和政府可以购买它，其他人则可以游说法律保护等等。

Corps and governments can buy it, and other people can lobby for legal protection, etcetera.

当达到这种规模时，企业与政府入局本身就是 adoption（采用）的一部分。

As it reaches this scale, part of the adoption is having corporations and governments get in on the game.

它像特洛伊木马般渗透进各个领域。

It seeps into places like a Trojan horse.

这本就是它壮大后的必然路径。

That was always the path once it gets big.

比如哈尔·芬尼在2010年就讨论过比特币银行。

Hal Finney was talking about Bitcoin banks in 2010, for example.

这个网络最棒的地方在于它能吸引各种各样的人，人们可以在任何适合自己的环节接入——无论是为Chowme和Mintz写代码的赛博朋克，还是将其纳入ETF的西装客，或是为选民提供法律庇护以免他们被针对而被迫迁移的政客。

The best aspect of the network is that it brings all sorts of people to it, and people can plug into the stack at whatever point works for them, whether it's a cyberpunk making code for Chowme and Mintz, or a suit stashing it into an ETF, or a politician helping provide legal cover for the constituents so that they're not singled out and have to move.

‘比特币属于所有人’这句话是字面意思。

Bitcoin is for anyone is literal.

推文结束。

End tweet.

无论涉及何种资产，顽固看空派都具备一种能力：随时根据需要转换叙事，这样无论发生什么，他们总是对的，而资产总是失败的。

One of the skills that Perma bears have, regardless of the asset in question, is to pivot the narrative whenever needed so that regardless of what's happening, they're right and the asset is unsuccessful.

对比特币而言，这意味着构建一种叙事——使其不存在任何可能的成功路径，也无法对成功进行合理定义。

For Bitcoin, it means creating a narrative such that there is no conceivable path to success or any reasonable definition of what success looks like.

如果它困在小众零售层面，那么其价格增长和积极影响世界的能力就会受限。

If it's stuck at the niche retail level, then its price appreciation and ability to positively impact the world is impaired.

看吧，它正在失败。

See, it is failing.

如果它被大型实体和政府采用并持续大规模增长，那它就被收编而迷失了方向。

If it's adopted by large entities and governments and continues to grow massively, well then it's captured and lost its way.

但如果它要发展壮大、被广泛接受并以某种方式改变世界，这条路径怎么可能完全不经过企业和政府呢？

But if it's going to become large, widely accepted, and change the world in some way, how does that path not go through corporations and governments at some point?

不知怎么的，我想起了《恋恋笔记本》里高司令不断追问麦克亚当斯她想要什么的场景。

I'm somehow reminded of that scene from The Notebook where Gosling keeps asking McAdams what she wants.

多头是高司令，而顽固看空派是麦克亚当斯。

The bulls are Gosling, and the Permabears are McAdams.

你想要什么？

What do you want?

你想要什么？

What do you want?

事情没那么简单。

It's not that simple.

你想要什么？

What do you want?

比特币已经经历了几个主要时代，每个时代推动价格和快速积累的人群都不同。

Bitcoin has gone through a few major eras in terms of who is moving the price and accumulating most rapidly.

第一个时代，人们用电脑挖矿，把钱汇到日本的交易卡交易所Mt.

In era one, people mined it on their computers, where they sent money to a trading card exchange in Japan, Mt.

Gox去买一些比特币，以及其他充满摩擦的早期采用者行为。

Gox, to buy some, and other friction filled early adopter types of things.

这是超级早期用户时代。

This was the super early user era.

第二个时代，特别是在Mt.

In era two, particularly after Mt.

Gox倒闭后，买卖和使用变得更容易了。

Gox blew up, it became easier to buy and use.

许多国家的本土交易所让人们购买比特币比以前方便得多。

Onshore exchanges let people in many countries buy Bitcoin much more easily than before.

2014年出现了第一批硬件钱包，使得自主保管比特币更加安全。

The first hardware wallets came out in 2014, which made it safer to self custody Bitcoin.

这是零售买家时代，摩擦虽仍存在但正在减少。

This was the retail buyer era, where frictions were still present but were diminishing.

在第三阶段，它已具备足够规模和流动性，并拥有足够长的历史记录来吸引更多机构投资者。

In era three, it became large and liquid enough and with a sufficiently long track record to attract more institutions.

实体为其建立了机构级托管服务，上市公司开始购入，各类ETF及其他金融产品相继推出，使各类基金和资金池得以参与其中。

Entities built institutional grade custodians for it, publicly traded corporations started buying some, and various ETFs and other financial products came out to allow various funds and managed pools of capital to get exposure.

部分主权国家如不丹王国、萨尔瓦多和阿联酋已进行开采或购买，并在国家层面持有。

Some nation states, like the Kingdom Of Bhutan, El Salvador, and The UAE mined it or bought it and hold it at a sovereign level.

其他国家如美国则选择保留没收的币而非持续向市场抛售。

Others like The US have chosen to hold their confiscated coins rather than keep selling them back to the market.

幸运且重要的是，每个新阶段仍包含之前阶段的参与者。

Fortunately, and this is important, each era still includes the prior ones.

尽管当前企业是净买入主力，散户投资者仍可自由购买。

Even though corporations are doing most of the net buying currently, retail investors can still buy as much as they want as well.

现在购买比特币并自行托管比以往任何时候都更容易。

It has never been easier to buy Bitcoin and take self custody of it.

有大量资源可供学习操作方法。

There are plenty of resources explaining how to do it.

目前有多款经济可靠的数字钱包解决方案，且链上交易手续费较低。

Multiple inexpensive and robust wallet solutions, and on chain transaction fees are currently low.

我常听到有人说：比特币本应服务于民众，是点对点现金，现在却成了大企业的游戏。

I see people say things like, I thought Bitcoin was supposed to be for people, for peer to peer cash, now it's all big corporations.

但它依然属于人民。

And it is for people.

任何能上网的人都可以购买、持有或发送它。

Anyone with internet access can buy it, hold it, or send it.

大型机构的存在并不会否定这一点，毕竟这些机构也是由购买它的人运营的。

None of that is negated by large entities, which are also run by people buying it as well.

这就是为什么我既认同密码朋克，也认同西装币客。

That is why I'm in agreement with both the Cypherpunks and the Suitcoiners.

我希望比特币能成为自由货币发挥作用，这也是我作为Ego Death Capital普通合伙人的主要原因——我们为初创公司提供资金，这些公司为比特币网络及其用户构建解决方案。

I want Bitcoin to be useful as freedom money, and that's in large part why I'm a general partner at Ego Death Capital, where we provide capital to start up companies that build solutions for the Bitcoin network and its users.

这也是我支持人权基金会等非营利组织的原因，他们资助开发者和教育机构，专注于为生活在专制或通胀环境中的人们提供金融工具。

That's also why I support the Human Rights Foundation and other nonprofits as they fund developers and education providers that focus on providing financial tools to people in authoritarian or inflationary environments.

但同样理性的是，大资本池——无论是企业、投资基金还是主权实体——一旦理解比特币后都会购买它。

And yet it's also rational that large pools of capital, whether it be corporations, investment funds, or even sovereign entities, are going to buy Bitcoin once they figure it out.

它现在规模足够大、流动性足够强，已经进入了他们的视野。

It's large and liquid enough to be on their radar now.

重要的是要记住，大多数人并非活跃投资者。

It's important to remember that the majority of people are not active investors.

他们不会购买个股，也不会深入分析比特币与其他加密货币的区别。

They don't buy individual stocks, and they don't deeply analyze the difference between Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

如果他们以交易者身份进行投机，很可能在顶部买入并在底部被震出局。

If they do speculate on something as a trader, they're likely to buy it at the top and get shaken out at the bottom.

他们的投资往往是被动分配的，而非自主选择的。

Investments are often assigned to them in passive ways rather than chosen by them for themselves.

在过去，这通常是养老金。

In older days, it was typically a pension.

如今，401(k)雇主匹配计划通常自动运作，采用指数基金组合或由财务顾问代为选择投资。

Today, it's often automatic four zero one employer matching with a mix of index funds or a financial adviser picking investments for them.

在我看来，指望数十亿人主动选择比特币是不现实的。

In my view, it's unreasonable to expect billions of people to flock to Bitcoin as an active decision.

然而，通过技术解决方案和教育资源，努力降低准入门槛，使任何有意愿的人都能无障碍接触比特币，这才是合理的方向。

It is, however, reasonable to work hard to make it so that anyone can access Bitcoin if they choose to by making the barriers to entry as low and frictionless as possible via technological solutions and educational resources.

得益于许多人的辛勤工作，当前的摩擦阻力已降至历史最低。

Thanks to the hard work of many, frictions have never been lower than they are right now.

对此最精辟的表述是：比特币为所有人准备，但并非适合每个人。

The best phrasing I've seen for this is: Bitcoin is for anyone, not everyone.

实际含义是：我们应将所有人引向比特币这口井，但只有部分人会选择饮水。

What this means in practice is that everyone should be led to water on the topic, but only a subset will choose to drink.

企业时代的风险与机遇 表面上看，企业对比特币利弊的讨论几乎无关紧要——在这个规模下它们的介入已成必然。

Risks and Opportunities in the Corporate Era At the surface level, the question of whether corporations are good or bad for Bitcoin is almost irrelevant because they're inevitable for Bitcoin at this scale.

当资产成长为万亿美元流动网络时，还期望它仅服务于个人而排斥企业和政府是不现实的。

Once the asset became a trillion dollar liquid network, it became unreasonable to expect that it would be something only for individuals and not for corporations or governments.

作为开放无许可的网络，任何能上网的人都可以购买比特币。

As an open and permissionless network, anyone with access to the Internet can buy it.

如果比特币因企业或政府购买就无法成功，那它从一开始就注定失败。

So if Bitcoin can't succeed if corporations or governments buy it, then it was never going to succeed.

这就像科幻故事里入侵地球的外星人，最终因怕水或无法抵抗基础病菌而失败——本就是不可能的事。

That would be like when aliens invade Earth in a fictional story and end up losing because they are vulnerable to water or can't deal with basic germs It was just never meant to be.

如果我认为比特币网络的技术设计和经济激励不足以支撑机构大规模购入，当初根本就不会投资。

If I didn't think the Bitcoin network was robust enough in its technical design and economic incentives to handle large purchases by institutions, then I wouldn't have bought any to begin with.

事实上，这正是我最初购买它的部分原因，我在2023年太平洋比特币的炉边谈话中讨论过这一点。

In fact, that's part of why I bought it in the first place I spoke about this in my 2023 fireside talk at Pacific Bitcoin.

当我们超越表面现象，接受这个领域大型实体存在的必然性时，仍有许多有效问题需要考虑。

When we move past the surface level and accept the inevitability of large entities in this space, there are still plenty of valid questions to consider.

如果比特币被企业大量收购，网络是否存在特定风险？如果存在，能否通过某种方式缓解这些风险？

Are there certain risks to the network if too much of it gets bought up by corporations, and if so, can those be mitigated in some way?

集中与控制：主要风险在于，如果比特币主要由大资本池持有，可能会丧失部分去中心化特性。

Concentration and Control The primary risk to consider is that if Bitcoin becomes significantly held by large pools of capital, it could lose some of its decentralized traits.

虽然这个担忧不容忽视，但我认为该风险被夸大了，因为网络具有强大的反脆弱特性。

While not a dismissible concern, I view that risk as overblown because the network has powerful antifragile traits.

这就是为什么它能保持开放和无许可状态十六年之久。

That's why it has gotten so far sixteen years now while remaining open and permissionless.

比特币是工作量证明网络，而非权益证明网络。

Bitcoin is a proof of work network, not a proof of stake network.

换句话说，持有大量比特币并不会赋予所有者审查交易的能力。

In other words, holding large amounts of Bitcoin does not give the owner the ability to censor transactions.

比特币矿工可以审查交易，但前提是绝大多数矿工都坚持这样做，我。

Bitcoin miners can censor transactions, but only if the vast majority of them adhere to doing so, I.

E。

E.

除了直接审查交易外，他们大多数只基于先前审查交易的区块进行构建。

In addition to censoring transactions themselves, the majority of them only build on prior blocks that censor transactions.

如果他们确实审查交易，那些被审查的交易可以提供高额手续费，吸引矿工切换矿池或司法管辖区，从而解除网络审查并赚取这些费用。

And if they do censor transactions, those censored transactions can offer high fees to attract miners to switch mining pools or jurisdictions to uncensor the network and earn those fees.

此外，由于比特币挖矿利润微薄且竞争激烈，矿工们不得不前往各种形式的廉价能源所在地，这通常会使司法管辖集中度超过某个临界点后趋于分散。

Additionally, because Bitcoin mining is so low margin and competitive, they have to go to wherever cheap energy exists in its various forms, which generally spreads out jurisdictional concentration beyond a certain point.

这是简单而稳健的技术与经济激励相结合的产物。

It's a combination of simple but robust technology and economic incentives.

实体运行节点，这些节点是支撑比特币网络的软件客户端。

Entities run nodes, which are the software clients that run the Bitcoin network.

没有人能强制用户运行特定类型的节点软件或进行更新。

Nobody can force users to run a certain type of node software or update.

要以损害个人利益为代价来改变比特币网络，使其有利于企业或政府，并非完全不可能，但要对抗广泛分布的软件系统将面临难以想象的艰难斗争。

To change the Bitcoin network in such a way to benefit corporations or governments at the expense of individuals is not outright impossible, but it's an incredible uphill battle against widely distributed software.

比特币的所有权历来存在大规模集中现象。

There have always been large pockets of Bitcoin ownership.

早期，门头沟交易所

In the early years, Mt.

据估计曾持有约85万枚比特币，当时流通量仅为现在的一半左右。

Gox was estimated to have held around 850,000 coins, back when there were around half as many Bitcoin in existence as there are now.

中本聪估计持有超过百万枚与众人共同挖出的比特币，由于这些币历经十六年多次牛熊周期仍未动用，目前普遍认为其私钥已被销毁或遗失。

Satoshi is estimated to hold over a million coins that he mined alongside everyone else, which due to having held through so many booms and busts for sixteen years now, are widely assumed to have had their private keys burned or lost by this point.

尽管如此，持续监控潜在风险始终是最佳策略。

Still, it's always best to monitor potential risks.

我曾与Electra Capital的雷恩和Block Incorporated的史蒂夫·李合著论文，在2024年分析了比特币共识机制及相关风险，并将其作为可随时间更新以反映变化条件与其他观点的活文档开源发布。

Along with Wren of Electra Capital and Steve Lee of Block Incorporated, I co authored a paper that analyzed Bitcoin consensus and associated risks back in 2024, and we open sourced it to the world as a living document that can update over time to reflect changing conditions and other opinions.

你可以在这里查阅这份报告。

You can check it out here.

对比特币大型机构和主权持有者的批评者可以且应该随时指出其中存在的不良做法。

Critics of large institutional and sovereign owners of Bitcoin can and should call out bad practices wherever they exist.

人们可以且应该支持或捐助他们感兴趣领域内有利于小用户的法律事业或软件开发。

People can and should support or donate to legal causes or software development for areas of interest to them that benefit smaller users.

就像任何公共产品一样，它依赖于数百万个体参与者各自致力于对他们重要的方面。

Just like any public good, it's reliant on millions of individual actors working on the aspects that matter to them.

机遇。

Opportunity.

改善漏斗顶端。

Improving the top of funnel.

随着现货ETF和杠杆比特币国债公司的激增，比特币网络可能面临的最大机遇是改变了零售用户接触比特币的渠道。

Probably the biggest opportunity for the Bitcoin network with the proliferation of spot ETFs and leveraged Bitcoin treasury companies is that it changes the funnel for how retail users come across Bitcoin.

直到最近，大多数人还是通过加密货币交易所购买比特币，在那里他们会受到赌场式营销的狂轰滥炸，转而购买山寨币。

Until recently, most people went to cryptocurrency exchanges to buy Bitcoin, where they'd get hammered with casino like marketing to buy altcoins instead.

绝大多数山寨币只有一个大的上涨周期，之后就会开始回落并永远相对于比特币停滞不前，而后期入场的零售买家最终成为接盘侠。

The vast majority of altcoins only have one big pump cycle before they start to roll over and stagnate relative to Bitcoin forever, and late retail buyers end up being the bag holders.

然而，周期复始，每个人都曾被营销为'下一个比特币'所吸引。

And yet, cycle after cycle, everyone got marketed with the next Bitcoin, which drew them in.

关于这个话题的更多内容，请阅读我的《数字炼金术》一文。

Read my Digital Alchemy article for more on that topic.

如今，现货比特币ETF和比特币国债公司比赌场式的加密货币交易所更可能成为人们接触比特币的第一触点。

Now, spot Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin Treasury companies are a more likely first touchpoint for people when it comes to Bitcoin than casino like cryptocurrency exchanges.

由于部分比特币公司现已进入顶级指数，他们将通过指数基金被动接触比特币。

They'll have passive exposure to it via index funds since some Bitcoin corporations are now in the top indices.

他们或其顾问可能会考虑在现货比特币ETF中持仓，诸如此类。

They or their advisor might consider a position in a Spot Bitcoin ETF, and so forth.

其中一部分人可能决定深入研究，并考虑将部分资产转入自我托管，以充分利用该资产。

A subset of them might decide to research further and consider acquiring some into their own self custody and make full use of the asset.

从历史上看，山寨币的另一个用途是，由于比特币网络整体规模较大，人们希望获得比比特币所能提供的更大的短期收益。

Another use of altcoins historically was that people wanted bigger short term gains than what Bitcoin could provide due to the Bitcoin network's larger overall size.

比特币已经是历史上表现最佳的资产之一，但有些人希望波动性更大。

Bitcoin is already one of the best performing assets ever, but some people want even more volatility.

杠杆化比特币企业为那些需要的人提供了波动性更大的比特币敞口，正如我之前提到的，比特币企业拥有的杠杆类型通常优于个人和对冲基金所能获得的杠杆类型。

Leveraged Bitcoin corporations provide a more volatile type of Bitcoin exposure for those that want that, and as I mentioned before, the type of leverage that Bitcoin corporations have is generally superior to the type of leverage that individuals and hedge funds have access to.

一些杠杆化比特币国债企业的运营策略会比其他的更为保守或激进。

Some leveraged Bitcoin Treasury corporations will be run more conservatively or aggressively than others.

如果人们真的想进行投机交易，甚至可以购买一些流动性最强的比特币国债企业的期权。

People can even buy options on some of the most liquid Bitcoin Treasury corporations if they really want to speculate and trade.

因此，山寨币的处境可以说从未如此弱势。

So the case for altcoins has arguably never been weaker.

鉴于它们总体上的糟糕记录，我认为这是健康的。

And given their horrible track record in aggregate, I think that's healthy.

山寨币行业目前似乎已经耗尽了大幅推高其网络价值的叙事，直接持有比特币和/或投资于将比特币与最优杠杆类型相结合的企业，比购买山寨币更有意义。

The altcoin industry has seemingly run out of narratives for now on how to substantially pump their networks, it makes far more sense to hold Bitcoin directly and or to invest or speculate in companies that combine Bitcoin with optimal types of leverage than it does to buy altcoins.

总结要点 为了总结这篇长文，比特币货币化的方式大致如下，这些都不应令人感到意外。

Summary Points To summarize this long form article, the way Bitcoin's monetization has unfolded so far is roughly like this, and none of it should be surprising.

首先，比特币最初是作为爱好者和/或怀揣变革梦想者的收藏品，一种可供把玩的新颖技术可能性，有朝一日可能对具有不同信念水平的人产生价值或提供某种价值。

First, Bitcoin started out as a collectible for enthusiasts and or people with big dreams for change, a neat new technological possibility to play with that might one day be worth something or provide some value to people with varying levels of conviction.

其次，比特币开始成为实用主义者进行特定场景下交易媒介的工具，即使这些人原本并不关注它。

Second, Bitcoin started to become useful for situational medium of exchange purposes, even by pragmatists that were otherwise not focusing on it.

需要向有资本管制的国家汇款，比如Khazares需要的那样？

Need to send money to a country with capital controls, like Khazares needed to?

比特币能在其他支付渠道失败的地方取得成功。

Bitcoin could succeed where other payment rails failed.

尽管被主流在线支付平台下架，仍需要接收付款或捐款，就像维基解密那样？

Need to receive payments or donations despite being deplatformed from the major online payment portals, like WikiLeaks?

比特币可以成为一个很好的替代方案。

Bitcoin could be a great workaround.

这确立了一定程度的新颖实用性。

This established some degree of novel utility.

第三，高波动性、无数竞争对手和资本利得税等各种摩擦因素阻碍了比特币作为通用交易媒介的持续发展。

Third, various frictions like high volatility, countless competitors, and capital gains taxes acted as headwinds against Bitcoin's continued growth as a common medium of exchange.

它在这一用途上仍在增长，但相对于十六年后人们曾经的预期，其规模仍然相对较小。

It still is growing for that use, but remains relatively small in that sense relative to what some people thought it might be like after sixteen years.

如果你向不持有比特币的商家消费比特币，而他们自动将其转换为法币，那么比特币的优势就无法充分体现，其在这方面的实用性也存在上限。

If you spend Bitcoin with a merchant that does not hold Bitcoin and they auto convert it to a fiat currency, then the benefits of Bitcoin are not being fully realized and there's a ceiling on how useful it will be for that purpose.

每个货币兑换环节都存在摩擦，对于一个'即时接收即出售'的资产或网络而言，其网络效应较弱，导致现阶段竞争激烈。

Every point of currency exchange is a friction and the network effects are weak for a receive immediately sell situational type of asset or network, which results in a crowded field of competition at this stage.

第四，比特币更广泛地被认可为理想的便携增值资本形式。

Fourth, Bitcoin became recognized more broadly as the ideal form of portable appreciating capital.

与其他加密货币不同，它达到了去中心化、安全性、简洁性、稀缺性和规模化的理想水平，使其成为值得长期持有的资产。

Unlike other cryptocurrencies, it reached a level of decentralization, security, simplicity, scarcity, and scale that made it attractive to hold for years with confidence.

这正是网络效应更为强大的地方。

This is where network effects are more powerful.

虽然用它买咖啡并不总是方便，但它已开始跻身国际流通的前十大实物资产之列，用于兑换当地价值，在这方面超越了160多种法币中的绝大多数。

While it's not always easy to buy coffee with it, it has started to reach into the top 10 bearer assets that you could bring with you internationally in exchange for local value, surpassing the vast majority of the 160 plus fiat currencies in that regard.

第五，比特币网络已达到足够的流动性、规模和持久性，足以吸引企业和政府的积极关注。

Fifth, the Bitcoin network reached sufficient liquidity, scale, and longevity to attract the positive interest of corporations and governments.

有大量管理资金对该资产感兴趣，企业和基金为他们提供了间接接触的渠道。

There are huge pools of managed capital that are interested in the asset, and corporations and funds give them indirect access to it.

与此同时，比特币作为一个开放且无需许可的网络持续存在，这意味着个人用户也在继续使用并基于它进行建设。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to exist as an open and permissionless network, which means individuals continue to use it and build upon it as well.

接下来我们可以观察另外两个潜在发展阶段——前提是网络持续扩张。

We can then look at two more levels, which are potentially ahead if the network keeps expanding.

第六，随着比特币网络规模扩大、流动性增强且波动性降低，它对大型主权实体的吸引力会越来越大。

Sixth, as the Bitcoin network becomes larger, more liquid and less volatile, the more interesting it can become for large sovereign entities.

最初的主权基金小额投资，最终可能演变为外汇储备或大规模国际结算手段。

What starts out as a small sovereign fund investment can eventually find its way into currency reserves or as a method of international settlement at scale.

各国不断尝试建立封闭的替代支付系统却鲜有采用或共识，而这个具有独立有限供给的开源结算网络正在全球范围内逐步自我完善。

Countries keep trying to build closed sourced alternative payment methods with little adoption or agreement for them, while this open source settlement network with a finite supply of its own independent units is gradually bootstrapping itself across the world.

第七，其规模越大、流动性越强、波动性越低，对短期持有的吸引力也越大，从而可能确立为更普遍的交换媒介。

Seventh, the larger, more liquid and less volatile it becomes, the more attractive it can become for shorter term holding periods as well, and thus can potentially assert itself as a more ubiquitous medium of exchange.

这只有在大量人群已持有并适应它，且其购买力在长期基础上也能满足短期需求时才会实现。

This should only be expected when tons of people already hold it and are already comfortable with it and when its purchasing power can be relied upon in the short term in addition to the long term.

总体而言，我仍认为比特币在技术和经济层面处于良好状态，其采用路径正按预期扩展。

Overall, I continue to view Bitcoin as being in a good place technically and economically, and its path of adoption is expanding as expected.

好的。

Alright.

那就到此为止吧。

And that wraps it up.

这里有很多内容需要梳理，因为信息量太大了。

And there is a ton to unpack in this because there's so much.

哦，这里面有很多精彩的小细节。

Oh, there's so many great little nuggets in this one.

这些事情我们之前大概从宏观角度零散讨论过，但我特别喜欢她把整篇文章串联起来，完整展现了股票、债券、企业财务公司等如何与比特币的历史依赖关系相契合的全景图。

And it's things that like, we've kinda talked about in kinda big picture and kinda spaced out, but I just love she takes this entire piece and just kind of lays out the entire picture and how stocks and bonds and, you know, corporate treasury companies and all of these things fit into the kind of past dependency of Bitcoin's history.

我特别喜欢结尾的总结部分，通常这类总结就是些要点罗列，但她行云流水地讲述了比特币的发展历程，并由此推演出未来可能延伸的趋势。

And I love this the summary at the end, you usually, know, it's just kinda like a set of bullet points or something, but I just love the the flow of just like, listen, this is what has happened with Bitcoin, and this is what you can expect to extend from that.

说实话，要真正全面探讨这个话题，我应该专门做一期《盖伊视角》节目。

Honestly, I think to really do the whole topic itself justice, I should have a full on Guy's Take episode.

但我实在放不下这个话题。

But I can't let this go.

我必须要对这期内容做个简短的《盖伊视角》解读，涵盖我们本应探讨的内容，并参考林恩在文中构建的整体论证框架。

I can't let this episode go without doing a kind of a brief Guy's Take as to what we would cover and referencing how Lynn poses kind of the whole argument in this piece.

因为她做得太出色了，我保存了大量片段和小节——这里处处都是亮点。

Because I think she just does a great job, and there's a lot of different little I saved a ton of little clips and sections here.

首先，关于公司债券、ETF这些，我认为人们容易忽略有多少资金是被锁死的——

So first thing, just thinking about the corporate bonds, the ETFs, and all of this stuff is I think people forget just how much capital is stuck.

这些资金被禁锢在必须通过特定严格渠道、仅能投资特定类型公司或金融工具的僵化环境中。

Like, just stuck somewhere where it has to have a a very strict type of purchase or type of allocation and in a very strict environment and under explicit, only these types of companies, only these types of entities or instruments are even allowed to be accessed through this particular avenue.

重要的是，我认为人们忘记了这些环境中蕴藏着多少资本。

And importantly, I think people forget just how much capital is in those environments.

事实上，可以稳妥地说，大部分资本都被锁定在这类市场中。

In fact, it's probably safe to say that most capital is locked up in these kinds of markets.

这里存放着每个人的养老金。

This is where everyone's pension is.

这里存放着每个人的401k退休金。

This is where everyone's four zero one k is.

这里进行着以大规模抵押贷款支持证券形式交易的房贷。

This is where mortgages are traded in large tranches of mortgage backed securities.

金融市场中受严格使用和流动条件限制的投资资本，远比人们藏在衣柜里、床垫下或直接存在银行账户中的现金多得多。

More investment capital exists in the financial markets under strict conditions and limitations into how and where it can be used and moved than exist buried in people's closets, underneath their mattresses, or just directly in somebody's cash bank account.

实际上我认为在健全货币体系下，资本将大规模急剧地向后者转移。

Now I actually think that is likely to shift toward the latter heavily, aggressively in a sound money world.

我认为我们将对大量事物进行去金融化。

I think we will definancialize a ton of stuff.

在健全货币体系下，每个人都毫无理由地持有401k账户，投资一堆随价值波动的股票指数，这种想法将变成一种愚蠢的策略。

The idea of everyone having a four zero one k for no particular reason, investing in a bunch of indices with a bunch of stocks that just arbitrarily go up in value, when you have sound money, that will be a kind of dumb strategy.

这并不意味着每个人都会把比特币或硬件钱包藏在床垫下，但为未来储蓄和投资资本的方式将发生巨大变化。

And that doesn't mean that everybody will just have Bitcoin or a hardware wallet under their mattress, but the type and mode of cap of saving and investing capital for the future will change dramatically.

但这需要非常漫长的时间才能实现。

But that will take a really long time to do.

而目前，有数十万亿美元被困在金融市场中，可能高达100万亿。

And right now, there are tens of trillions of dollars stuck in financial markets, maybe a 100,000,000,000,000.

比如，当数字变得那么大时，我甚至不知道它们有多荒谬，而且充满了猜测。

Like, I don't I don't even know the numbers when they get that big are just kind of ridiculous, and there's tons of just guesswork.

但在这些地方存在着巨额资金，数量之庞大简直天文数字。

But there's an enormous, astronomical amount of money that exist in these locations.

比特币储备公司、ETF、比特币债券，所有这些都解锁了对那部分资本的获取途径。

And Bitcoin treasury companies, ETFs, Bitcoin bonds, all of these things unlock access to that capital.

关键是，如果比特币要成为世界货币——Lynn Alden在这篇文章里说了七遍，我在节目里也不知强调了多少次——绝无可能。

And importantly, if Bitcoin is going to be the money of the world, there is no and I don't know, Lynn Alden had to have said this seven times in this piece, and I don't know how many times I've said it on this show, there is no way.

不存在任何路径、任何现实、任何宇宙能让世界采用比特币标准，而比特币却不在金融体系的各个层级中存在。

There is no path, there is no reality, there is no universe in which the world ends up on a Bitcoin standard in which Bitcoin does not exist at these different levels of the financial system.

这是不言自明的。

It is axiomatic.

能否实现比特币标准，甚至比特币标准是否曾存在过，都取决于它是否渗透到这些领域。

It the the notion of being on a Bitcoin standard, of a Bitcoin standard having existed at all is dependent upon it being in those places.

如果金融市场、债券、十年期资本锁定的成本，如果所有那些股票、指数权益和纳斯达克——如果这些垃圾资产没有与直接持有比特币进行权衡，或者不以比特币计价，那就不是比特币标准。

If financial markets, bonds, the cost of locking up capital for ten years, if all of that stocks and equities of the indices and Nasdaq, if all of that crap isn't weighed against holding Bitcoin directly or isn't priced in Bitcoin, then it's not a Bitcoin standard.

它必须存在于这些领域。

It absolutely has to be in those environments.

当它开始进入这些领域，成为全球表现最佳的资产时，会是什么景象？

And what the hell would it look like when it starts to move into those environments, when it's the best performing asset in the world?

很可能就像现在的样子。

Probably a lot like what it looks like right now.

那些永远看空的人会说比特币已被收编，企业很愚蠢不该买入比特币，现在梦想破灭了的人们。

The Perma bears and the Bitcoin is captured, and the corporations are stupid and they never should have bought any Bitcoin, and now the the dream is dead people.

我不明白，你眼中的现实是怎样的？

I don't understand what what was your image of reality?

你预见到这会如何发展？

Where did you see this going?

如果你认为比特币将被数十亿人使用，那你预期它的未来会是什么样子？

What did you expect the future of Bitcoin to look like if you thought it was going to be accessible to billions of people?

就像我完全同意林·奥尔登的观点一样，我同时认同双方的观点——密码朋克派和西装币商派的论点，因为这两个市场、金融系统的这两个层级、以及技术领域的这两个方面都同时存在，而且都不会消失。

Like, I'm I completely agree with Lin Alden here, is that I completely agree with both sides, with both arguments, the cypherpunk argument and the suit coiner argument, because both of those markets and both of those layers of the financial system and both of those areas technologically in the world exist at the same time, and neither one of them are going anywhere.

它们都会因为比特币和健全货币的存在而发生巨大改变，但这并不意味着它们将不复存在。

They both will change dramatically because of the existence of Bitcoin and the existence of sound money, but it doesn't mean they're not gonna exist anymore.

恰恰相反，两者都经历了数十年的天文数字级投资与变革，必须经历结构和架构上的重新设计——无论是我们的新点对点技术会是什么（NoSter、公钥、配对堆栈），还是电子现金的形态。

To the contrary, both of them have astronomical amounts of decades of investment and change, and structural, and architectural redesign that they all have to go through, both at the what's our new peer to peer technology going to be, NoSter, pubkey, pair stack, like, oh, we're going to, like, e cash.

我们将重新定义零售比特币的意义，并为那些真正能掌控自己密钥、能在世界任何地方独立拥有货币主权的人们，重新制定健全的货币标准。

We're gonna re redefine redefine what it means to have Bitcoin at retail, and we're gonna redefine a sound monetary standard for people who can actually hold their own keys, who can actually have independent money sovereignly anywhere they are in the world.

我们将创造主权个体。

We're gonna create the sovereign individual.

我们将创造可以自由旅行、不受任何特定国家束缚的数字游民。

We're gonna create the digital nomad that can travel anywhere and has no tether to any particular country.

我们将创建隐私网络。

We're gonna create privacy networks.

我们将建立独立非托管的交易市场与交易所。

We're gonna create independent and non custodial markets and exchanges.

我们将实现所有密码朋克式的无许可创新。

We're gonna create all the cypherpunk permissionless stuff.

我们正在做这件事。

We're doing it.

我感觉，每一年、每个月过去，都会有新工具出现。

I'm like, every every year, every month that goes by, there's a new tool.

我们正在全力构建密码朋克们一直梦寐以求的所有东西。

We are currently building the ever loving shit out of all the things that the cypherpunks have wanted for the whole time.

企业在这里用公司债券购买大量比特币，与那件事不再可能有什么关系？

What does corporations being here and buying a bunch of Bitcoin with corporate bonds have to do with that not being possible anymore?

它在哪方面放缓了？

And in what way has it slowed down?

但你知道我们还会有什么吗？

But you know what else we're gonna have?

金融工具。

Financial instruments.

我们将拥有ETF。

We're gonna have ETFs.

我们将拥有公司债券。

We're gonna have corporate bonds.

我们将拥有比特币储备公司。

We're gonna have Bitcoin treasury companies.

事实上，每家公司都将成为比特币储备公司。

In fact, every company is gonna be a Bitcoin treasury company.

但在最初十年或十五年左右，那些率先行动、运用杠杆、长期谨慎负责操作、清楚自己在做什么以及如何聪明地对全球贬值垃圾法币进行投机性攻击的人，将获得远超他人的巨大优势。

But for the first ten or fifteen years or so, the ones who do it first and do it leveraged and do it very carefully carefully and responsibly over long periods of time and know what they're doing and how to actually intelligently perform a speculative attack against the devaluing and the crap fiat of the world, they're gonna win super super hard against everybody else.

但归根结底，所有最终采用比特币标准的比特币储备公司，其比特币储备价值都会随时间缓慢增长，因为这是经济扩张时健全货币的必然表现。

But at the end of the day, every company that will eventually all be Bitcoin treasury companies on a Bitcoin standard will all have their Bitcoin treasury go up slowly in value over time because that's what sound money does when the economy grows.

其价值增长与购买力提升，直接与经济体的产能、增长及繁荣程度成正比。

It goes up in value, it goes up in purchasing power directly in proportion to the capacity and growth and prosperity of the economy.

这就是为什么购买力会发生变化。

That's why the purchasing power changes at all.

它取决于经济体的生产能力以及生产该物品的难易程度。

It's based on what the economy can produce and how difficult or easy it is to produce the thing.

当你不身处法定货币倒挂的荒谬境地时，这才是衡量经济增长的真实方式。

When you're not in Fiat upside down land, that's literally how you measure the economy's growth.

关键在于——解锁长期无法流动的资本、释放未来十到二十年将被冻结的资金，正是这些因素将使比特币经济规模扩张十万亿美元。

The point and the value and the reason this is going to expand the Bitcoin economy by $10,000,000,000,000 is because of the unlock, is because of the access to capital that has had no access to it for a long time, and access that capital that was going to be locked up for the next ten to twenty years.

必然如此。

Necessarily.

因此即便作为法币工具，我们仍有理由重视MicroStrategy、MetaPlanet甚至GameStop这类比特币储备公司。

This is why despite being a fiat instrument, there is reason to suspect or to value something like MicroStrategy or MetaPlanet or even GameStop as a Bitcoin treasury company.

因为如果你的资金被困在401k账户里，而你又看好比特币，那你的钱本质上还是受困于法币工具。

Because if your money's stuck in a four zero one k and you're bullish on Bitcoin, you your money is stuck in a fiat instrument anyway.

与其选择因法币贬值而升值的标的，不如选择与比特币同步增值的资产。

You might as well put it in one that goes up with Bitcoin rather than one that goes up because fiat goes down.

关于企业债券有个有趣现象——根据我对MicroStrategy的研究，他们的战略布局似乎非常精准。

You know, there's an interesting thing about the whole corporate bond stuff is, you know, the bit that I've looked into the micro strategy thing is they seem to be very well positioned.

我认为很多人觉得这不可能成功，或者他们会自食恶果，认为他们极其不负责任，这源于大众对杠杆的普遍误解。

I I think so many people think that it can't possibly work or that they're going to screw themselves or they're being super irresponsible because of what most people think leverage is.

人们常常忘记，杠杆有多种运用方式，也有不同程度的杠杆效应。

And people forget that there's a lot of different ways that you can leverage, and there's a lot of different degrees of leverage.

要知道，他们并没有在BitMex上做100倍杠杆，但如果比特币价格下跌10%或20%，他们就会遭遇保证金追缴。

You know, what they are doing is not doing a 100 x on bit mex, and if the Bitcoin price falls by 10 or 20%, they get margin called.

实际上，她在这里专门有一节讨论这个问题。

You know, she has a section in here actually about this.

稍等一下。

Hold on a second.

我这里有段引文。

I've got a I've got a quote.

我知道我有。

I know I do.

就在这里。

Here it is.

对冲基金是这样描述的：

So hedge funds quote.

对冲基金和某些资本池通常使用保证金贷款。

Hedge funds and certain other pools of capital typically use margin loans.

他们借钱购买更多资产，但如果资产价值相对于借款金额下跌过多，就会面临保证金追缴的风险。

They borrow money and use it to buy more assets, but they risk having a margin call if the value of the asset drops too low relative to the amount of money borrowed.

当资产价格跌幅过大时，保证金追缴可能迫使对冲基金出售资产——即便他们坚信这些资产会反弹并创下新高。

A margin call can force the hedge fund to sell assets if they dip too much in price, even when they have a strong conviction that those assets will recover to new highs.

被迫在低谷时清算优质资产是场灾难。

Having to liquidate a good asset at its lows is a catastrophe.

相比之下，企业可以发行债券，通常期限为多年。

In contrast, corporations can issue bonds, often with multi year durations.

如果他们持有比特币且价格下跌，他们无需提前抛售。

If they hold Bitcoin and the price dips, they don't have to sell prematurely.

这使得他们比依赖保证金贷款的实体更能承受波动期。

This gives them a better ability to weather periods of volatility than entities that rely on margin loans.

虽然仍存在可能迫使企业清算的看跌情景，但这些情景需要经历更长期的熊市，因此发生的可能性较低。

They are still bearish scenarios that could force corporations to liquidate, but those scenarios would involve a much longer bear market occurring, thus making them less likely.

我认为她很好地将其置于背景中——公司债券类型的杠杆是一种更清晰、更简便的杠杆方式。

I think she does a great job just putting it in context here is that the the corporate bond type of leverage is just as much cleaner and easier way to leverage.

具体来说，就我对MicroStrategy的理解而言，我得到了某种非正式确认，但要知道，每个人都可能误解具体细节。

And specifically, as I understand the microstrain, I've kinda gotten loose confirmation, but, you know, everybody can be wrong and not understand the specifics.

我还没有深入研究它，因为我已经不再持有法币系统的资金。

And I haven't done the deep dive into it because I just don't have money in the fiat system anymore.

我已经完全转向比特币，或许我可以将少量比特币投入MicroStrategy，这会是值得的，且可能表现优于比特币本身。

I've I've I've just done full on Bitcoin, and, you know, maybe I could make a, you know, put a little bit of Bitcoin into micro strategy, and it would be worth it, and it would do better than Bitcoin.

我只是不太擅长这个。

I just don't do well.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我并不想过多与银行打交道，尽管目前仍不得不频繁与银行接触。

I don't really wanna handle a lot of I deal with banks as much as I wanna deal with banks, and I still have to deal with banks quite a bit.

所以如果看起来确实诱人，我可能会拿出几个百分点进行所谓的杠杆操作，投入我预期表现略优于比特币的标的，这将是实际使用它的唯一方式。

So maybe if it really looks enticing, and I want to take, you know, a few percent and quote unquote leverage it, like, put it in a slightly higher, a vehicle that I expect to do a little bit better than Bitcoin, that would be the only way to actually use it.

但目前，我确实没时间专注于此，也没时间深入研究微观策略——抱歉，是策略及其流程或架构，除非我是在节目上做这件事。

But right now, I just don't have the time to focus on it, and I don't really have the time to deep dive into micro strategy, or excuse me, strategy and their their process or their structure, unless of course, I'm just doing it on the show.

如果你们需要的话，我完全可以做这件事——我确信有人已经写过30页的详细分析报告？

And maybe if you guys want me to, I can I can do what I I'm sure somebody has like a really serious write up with like 30 pages detailing all the details?

所以，嗯。

So I yeah.

如果大家想听，我绝对可以做深度分析，但我不确定。

I could absolutely do a deep dive if you guys wanted to, but I don't know.

感觉似乎没这个必要。

It seems like feels like it's not necessary.

但如果观众真的想在节目里听这个，我很乐意做。

But I'm happy to do it if people actually would want to listen to it on the show.

再次说明，我从多人那里得到的模糊确认是：他们杠杆操作的是股权而非比特币，这意味着股权可能因比特币价格下跌或持续下跌而贬值。

But again, loose confirmation from a bunch of people that I've asked the same question to, but it sounds to me, the rudimentary view is that they are leveraging their equity, not their Bitcoin, which means that their equity could go down in response to a Bitcoin price decline or a a steady and persistent Bitcoin price decline.

如果他们支付不足或无法留住关键岗位人员，当出现大规模抛售时，他们可能以低于实际价值的价格损失大量公司股权。

And if they aren't making enough or paying out enough in order to keep the people in those positions and there is a significant sell off, they could lose a lot of equity ownership in the company at prices that would technically be below value or, you know, below par with what you would expect the company to be worth, I think.

但这些都与比特币杠杆无关。

But none of that means leveraging Bitcoin.

他们不必担心——购买的比特币不会触发保证金追缴。

They don't have to mark they're not gonna get margin called on the Bitcoin they purchase.

实际上，他们持续用利润购买比特币，且因为人们仍在认购其股权和债券，即便比特币停滞，股权价值底线仍在增长——毕竟他们拥有长期杠杆，且市场预期比特币未来会升值，即便短期出现下跌。

In in fact, the fact that they continue to purchase Bitcoin with profits and purchase Bitcoin because everybody's still buying their equity and their bonds, the floor of the value that the equity ought to hold is actually growing even if Bitcoin is stagnant, because they have leverage over extended periods of time and people expect Bitcoin to be worth more in the future even if there's a temporary or short term downturn.

因此这事并不像表面看起来那么疯狂，既因其运作成功，也因多数人误以为这是在BitMEX上买100倍杠杆期权。

So it just doesn't seem as crazy as I think it looks on the surface because of how successful it is, and because most people are just projecting the he's going on bit mex and buying a 100 x option.

因为他们并没有那样做。

Because that is not what they're doing.

但无论如何，这就是我对整个企业资金和债券事务的基本看法，而且我认为伦·奥尔登已经很好地剖析了这一点。

But anyway, that's my basic view of the whole corporate treasury and bond stuff, and I think Lenn Alden just kinda broke it down well.

而且实际上，关键在于资本的获取。

And and really, it is about access to capital.

关键在于资本的获取。

It's about access to capital.

如果比特币要发展，它必然需要触及所有资本。

And if Bitcoin is going Bitcoin is necessarily going to access all capital.

比特币是最具可及性、无需许可的资产，可以以任何形式存在，并将融入全球每个国家金融体系的每一层级。

Like, Bitcoin is the most accessible permissionless, can be in any form, and will integrate at every single layer of every financial system in every country across the globe.

它将拥有一种金融工具。

It's gonna have an instrument.

所有资本都将有对应的载体，而这些资本只有渗透到每一层级、每一种金融工具和每一个定价类别中，才能实现全面对接。

There's gonna be something for all of it, and all of that capital is only going to be able to access it if it infiltrates every single layer and every single type of instrument and every single category of pricing.

比如各类资本协议可能达成的范围和形式。

Like, the the ranges and the types of, you know, capital agreements that you can make.

无论是短期交易、作为交换媒介的直接交易，还是长期债券——在金融体系不同工具和层级之上，各种期限和类型的协议都将涵盖。

Like, whether or not it's short term, whether or not it's, you know, trade in a medium of exchange and direct exchange, whether or not it's long term bonds, like, all of the various durations and types of agreements as well on top of all of the different instruments and layers of the financial system.

它必将渗透到所有领域，因为它将成为衡量时间价格的基准——作为我们拥有的最健全、最易获取且最具全球韧性的货币。

It will be in all of them, and necessarily so because it's going to be the measuring stick by which the price of time is weighed, because it is the most sound, most accessible, and most globally robust money that we have.

它将逐年趋近并最终完全承担这一角色，直到这一真理不再成立。

It will grow toward and fulfill that role more and more every single year until that truth ceases to be true.

其他事物要么比它优秀一个数量级，要么就会破坏它。

Something else is an order of magnitude better or something breaks it.

就是这样。

That's it.

在我看来，这是唯一的途径。

In my opinion, that is the only way.

在通往比特币标准的道路上，其他一切都只是噪音和颠簸。

Everything else is just noise and bumps along the road to a Bitcoin standard.

而阻止这种情况发生的两条路径：要么是比特币架构在规模化时失效（随着时间推移这种可能性越来越低），要么出现一种在去中心化、独立性、强健共识上优秀一个数量级的替代品，能在两个敌对势力同时使用时保持更高完整性。

And the two paths to that not happening are Bitcoin breaking the architecture of the system not actually working at scale, whichever year that goes by is less and less likely, or something that is an order of magnitude better at decentralized, independent, robust consensus that has higher integrity when two vicious enemies are using it at the same time exists.

我认为第二条路径的可能性要低得多。

I think the second path is way less likely.

第一条路径才是我们真正需要防范和思考的。

The first pass path is really the the one that we have to protect against and we have to think about.

这包括量子密钥风险、密码学被破解风险、未被发现且未妥善处理的大型系统性漏洞、挖矿过度中心化、共识构建机制等问题，以及该类别下的其他问题。

And that includes the, you know, quantum keys risk or quantum, you know, breaking the cryptography risk, the massive systemic bug that was unrealized and and not dealt with properly, too much centralization in mining and the building of consensus, the the system of consensus building, and basically other problems in that category.

所有这些都是可解决的问题，会以各种形式出现和消失。

And all of those are solvable problems, and those problems can and will come and go in various forms.

我认为在比特币网络的成熟和发展周期中，我们会遭遇需要缓解的密码学威胁，某些阶段可能会对网络造成严重冲击。

I think we will have, you know, cryptographic threats that will be mitigated and may hit the network very hard at some stage in its maturation and and growth cycles.

从技术层面来看会出现熊市。

There will be bear markets from a technical standpoint.

从网络韧性层面来看也会出现熊市。

There will be bear markets from a network resiliency standpoint.

从共识集中化的角度来看，市场会出现熊市。

There will be bear markets in, you know, the consensus centralization standpoint.

但我认为这些都只是表象。

But I think all of those are they're all surface layer.

它们某种程度上凌驾于架构之上，或者说它们是维持架构运转的要素。

They are kind of above the architecture, or they're the things that keep the architecture in play.

这些组件各就各位，游戏才能进行下去。

The the pieces in place so that the game can be played.

而当游戏本身失衡时，网络、人群、机构及周边技术都需要相应调整。

And those are things in which the game itself has become imbalanced, and the network and the people and the institutions and the technology around it need to adjust.

这些都是可以解决的问题。

Those are all solvable things.

就像互联网暂时集中化成了几个大平台那样。

It's like, you know, we're temporarily centralized on the Internet into big platforms.

这是可以解决的。

That's solvable.

这是个技术与社会层面的双重挑战。

That is a technical and social challenge.

我们会解决这个问题。

We will fix the problem.

我们正在解决这个问题。

We are fixing the problem.

这只是个庞大、痛苦、艰难且需要长期应对的问题。

It's just a big, painful, difficult, long term problem.

需要二十年才能修复。

It takes twenty years to fix.

更准确地说，需要二十年时间让该架构所有最大最昂贵的问题完全显现，然后可能还需要五到十年让压力积累、技术修正，从而使其向相反方向转变。

Or more accurately, it takes twenty years for all of the biggest and most costly problems of that architecture to come to fruition, and then probably it takes five to ten years for the pressure to have built and the technology to be fixed such that it swings back in the other direction.

但在我看来，比特币是全球范围内最健全、最安全、最易获取、最具主权独立性且彻底中立的货币，因此只要我们能保护它达到那个阶段，它就将成为货币标准。

But in my mind, Bitcoin is the soundest, most secure, most accessible, most sovereign and independent, and radically neutral money that there is on the globe, and thus it is going to be the monetary standard as long as we can protect it to get to that point.

这只需要时间，以及人们对金钱和价值认知框架的转变。

And it just takes time and the shifting of people's perception and framing around money and value.

事实上，这引出了'无处不在的货币'的整体概念，这个话题我已经反复讨论过多次。

And in fact, actually, brings us to the whole idea of ubiquitous money, which this is something that I have talked about so many times.

而Lynn非常擅长从不同角度切入这个概念。

And I Lynn does such a good job of, like, hitting this concept actually from in a different way.

我很欣赏这一点，因为我通常只从价值储存、交换媒介和记账单位三个维度思考。

I love the because I usually think about it in just the store of value to medium of exchange to unit of account.

而她更多是从'情境货币'与'无处不在货币'的效用框架本身来探讨。

And she talks about it more in the how the how to frame the utility itself of situational money versus ubiquitous money.

所以我准备快速引用她的一个观点。

So I'm gonna hit a quote real quick that she does.

要让某种东西成为无处不在的货币，付款方必须已经持有它，而收款方必须愿意持有它。

So in order for something to be used as ubiquitous money, the spender has to already have it, and the recipient has to want to hold it.

值得注意的是，人们通常更愿意接收他们已经拥有的东西。

Notably, people usually want to receive more of what they already have.

毕竟，如果潜在收款方愿意持有，他们可能早就购买了一些。

After all, if a potential recipient wanted to hold it, they likely would have already bought some.

因此，如果一种新型的通用货币出现，大多数人最初可能会将其视为一种投资，由于认为其购买力可能升值而购入一些，随后也愿意接受更多这种货币作为支付手段。

So if a new type of ubiquitous money were to arise, the majority of people would likely first encounter it as an investment, acquire some because they view it as likely to appreciate in purchasing power, and then be willing to receive more of it as payment as well.

到那时，他们已无需被说服接受它作为支付方式。

At that point, they don't need to be convinced to accept it as payment.

他们本就喜爱这种资产。

They already like the asset.

所以无论是他们主动增持，还是他人直接将其作为支付手段赠予，本质上几乎是一回事。

So whether they are buying more of it or people are directly giving it to them as a means of payment are nearly the same thing.

天啊，这话我说多少遍都不为过。

Oh, man, I cannot repeat that more times.

当所有人都已习惯购买并持有比特币时，交换媒介阶段自然到来——这个开关无法强行启动。知道达到那个阶段的关键是什么吗？

The medium of exchange phase happens when everybody has already normalized buying and holding Bitcoin, and you can't just flip that switch on, and you know what it looks like to actually get to that point?

那将是一个规模庞大、增长缓慢的广泛价值存储阶段，届时所有人都会认为比特币是全球最佳投资品和储蓄资产。

A massive, slow growing, broad store of value phase in which everyone thinks Bitcoin is the best investment and the best savings asset in the world.

天啊。

God.

她虽然此刻不在我眼前，但她说得极好：'你永远无法通过慈善行为或鼓励比特币持有者消费比特币来进入交换媒介阶段'。

Her I don't I don't have it right here in front of me, but the the way she put it, which I thought was great, is you will not get to a medium of exchange phase off of charity, off of Bitcoiners being encouraged to spend their Bitcoin.

当商户因渴望持有比特币而主动要求用它交易时，比特币作为交换媒介的时代才会真正到来。

Bitcoin as a medium of exchange happens when merchants demand Bitcoin because they want to hold it.

事实上，要实现那个目标，还有无数环节需要完善。

And it's actually incredible how many things still have to be sorted out just to get to that point.

举个典型例子：我正在与好友Joey合作处理公司账务等工作，基本上我的合作对象全都是比特币持有者。

Like a great example is, I'm working with a good friend, Joey for, bookkeeping and stuff with the company, and I'm working with basically, I'm working with all Bitcoiners.

对吧？

Right?

我试图完全以比特币支付，如果不行，我会收取少量费用以便立即将其转换为比特币，然后用比特币支付其他人。

Is I try to get fully paid in Bitcoin or if I don't, I charge a little bit of fees so that I can turn it right into Bitcoin immediately, and then I pay everyone else in Bitcoin.

但他们大多数人都得把大部分换成美元，而且我们都以美元计价，因为这样定价最方便，毕竟我们所有的负债、债务和日常开支都是以美元计价的。

But most and most of them have to convert most of it into dollars, And we all price it in dollars because that's the easy way to price because that's what all of our liabilities and debts and costs are denominated in for general purpose stuff.

不过，有次我和我的簿记员合作时，我们刚讨论过这个问题。

However, there was one point where so I was working with my bookkeeper and we just talked about this.

前几天我们梳理了这件事，如果可能的话，我们打算将其规范化，做成一个可以提供给他人使用并整合的方案。我认为我们会这么做，因为在比特币标准下，我们总会遇到些奇怪的状况，让人措手不及。

We laid this out the other day and we're probably going to if we can actually, like, formalize this and make it into something something that we can actually, like, give to people and that other people could use and integrate themselves, I think we intend to do this because I feel like being on a Bitcoin standard, we run into these, like, weird little oddities that you're like, oh, crap.

我甚至从没想过这会是个问题。

I never even thought about that as a problem.

但去年这个案例中就有好几次，他们连续几个月没开发票，等到终于为某个已完成的重要工作阶段开票时，比特币价格已经开始暴涨。

But there have been multiple times in in this particular case last year where, they did not invoice for a couple of months, and then when they finally invoiced for a, you know, particular, like, a good section of work that was done, the Bitcoin price had or began to skyrocket.

而我拖了大概两个月才处理那张发票。

And then I didn't get to the invoice for, like, two months or something like that.

期间比特币价格从6万涨到了9万。

And Bitcoin the Bitcoin price had moved from, like, 60,000 to 90,000 in that span of time.

关键是他们想要比特币。

And importantly, they wanted Bitcoin.

比如乔伊就要求用比特币支付并持有比特币，这样价值和价格都会上涨。

Like, Joey wanted to have to be paid in Bitcoin and to hold Bitcoin so that the value and the price would go up.

当然我也在做同样的事，因为我采用比特币标准，很在意能获得多少比特币。

And of course, I'm doing the exact same thing because I'm on a Bitcoin standard and I am concerned about the amount of Bitcoin I get.

当赞助商或合作方拖欠我一周款项，而比特币价格却上涨了10%时，我简直要骂娘了。

When someone doesn't when a sponsor or somebody we're working with doesn't pay me for a week and the Bitcoin price goes up 10%, I'm like, ah, crap.

赶紧付钱给我，我好换成比特币啊，现在能换到的聪数少多了。

Like, pay me so that I can get it into Bitcoin because now I'm gonna get way less sats for it.

这个问题其实经常出现，因为对他来说损失了大量聪——我按9万美元支付发票时，他开给我的发票金额是6.4万。

Well, this problem actually comes up comes up quite a bit because, like, that was a huge hit to him in how many sats he got because I was basically paying the invoice at $90,000 and he invoiced me at, 64.

但有时情况也会反过来，和我合作的所有人都会遇到这种事，毕竟大家都想要聪。

But then the same thing happens sometimes in reverse and with everybody that I'm working with because everybody wants the stats.

尽管我们的成本是以美元计价，账单也是用美元结算，但我们都想方设法尽可能多地获取聪，并安全地长期持有。

And even though our costs in are in dollars and we're billing in dollar denominations, we're all trying to make sure that we can get as many sats as we can and and securely hold it for as long as we can.

所以我们设计的系统——这其实是UTXOracle的完美用例——能让我们就价格达成共识。

And so the system that we've come up with is actually to and this is actually a perfect example or use case for something like UTX Oracle, so that we can actually agree on the price.

向史蒂夫致敬。

Shout out to Steve.

如果你没看过圆桌会议，不认识史蒂夫，也不知道UTXOracle，那你真该去了解一下。

If you haven't watched if you don't watch the round table or know who Steve is and don't know about UTX Oracle, you gotta check it out.

其实你可以很轻松地从比特币节点获取以美元计价的比特币价格。

You can actually pull the Bitcoin price in dollars from your Bitcoin node very easily.

关键是所有人都会得到相同价格，这可能是你能找到的最清晰、最权威的比特币美元全球定价，而且不需要API就能获取。

And importantly, everybody will have the same price, and it is it's actually one of the cleanest and best recorded global prices in dollars for Bitcoin that you can find, and it is existent you don't have to have an API.

你不需要信任任何公司。

You don't have to trust a company.

也不必争论该用哪家交易所的数据。

You don't have to argue about which exchange you're using.

这是一个完美的应用场景。

This is a perfect use case for it.

但基本上，这个想法不是VUTX Oracle。

But basically, the idea is not a VUTX Oracle.

如果你不了解的话，一定要去了解一下。

You should definitely check that out if you don't know.

但这个想法是，在工作进行的月份里——因为我们通常按月、按周期或按季度开具发票——无论怎样。

But, the idea is that for the month that the work is being done because we, you know, invoice or usually invoicing for a month or a period or a quarter, whatever.

但在工作进行的周期内，我们实际上会取比特币在整个月的平均价格，然后发票金额会根据这个平均值锁定为对应的聪数。

But for the period that the work is being done, that we actually average out the price of Bitcoin over that entire month, and then the invoice is paid or locked to the number of sats based on that average.

因此，如果比特币价格在那个月从9万跌到8万，那么发票就会按8.5万美元的比特币价格结算。

So if the price of Bitcoin goes from 90 to 80 over the course of that month, well, then the invoice is done at a price of $85,000 Bitcoin.

如果价格从9万涨到10.5万，那么发票价格就是9.75万比特币。

If the price goes from 90 to a 105, then the price of the invoice is at 97,500.0 Bitcoin.

所以目标是实际上在增益或损失上分摊差异，覆盖工作实际完成的整个周期。

And so the goal is to actually split the difference on either the gain or the loss over the course or over the period in which the work was actually done.

现在我们还没有完全实施这个方案，或者说我们还不清楚具体会怎样运作。

Now we haven't fully implemented this and or we don't know exactly how this is gonna go.

随着比特币变得极度波动，这可能很糟糕，或者基本上大部分时间都对我不利，因为比特币可能在一段时间内持续上涨，而我无法在赞助商或我正在做的有声书等项目上用同样的方式反向操作。

And with Bitcoin becoming crazy volatile, it might be might be terrible or probably work against me basically the whole time because Bitcoin's probably just gonna be up for a while, and I'm not able to do this exact same thing on the flip side with sponsors or some of the work that I'm doing with audiobooks and stuff.

所以这当然不是一个完美的系统，但我们必须学会如何在比特币标准下思考。

So it's certainly not a perfect system, but it's just something that like, we we have to figure out how to think on a Bitcoin standard.

这类系统或其类似物是平滑波动性的好方法，就像阶梯一样逐步过渡，在比特币整体价格上实现强劲稳定性——因为你是用长期时段来衡量，而且所有参与工作和支付的人都以获得的聪数为价值标准，而非美元。

And this kind of a system or something like it is a great way to smooth out the volatility where you just have, like, stairs like, gradual stair steps and real strong stability in the overall price of Bitcoin because you're measuring it over long periods of time and because everybody in involved in the work and the payment are all valuing the sats and how many sats they get as opposed to the dollars.

就像这样，没错，我们以美元计价，但美元的意义在于兑换成这些聪（Sats）。

It's like, yes, we're pricing in dollars, but the point of the dollars is to get this amount of Sats.

所以这很有趣。

So it's interesting.

我们正在进行一项实验，我会告诉你进展如何。

We're doing an experiment, and I'll let you know how it goes.

如果我们最终构建或设计出一个大家都非常喜欢、并且看起来愿意长期使用的系统，我会竭尽所能让它易于接入，比如你的Excel表格之类的工具。因为我们现在做的每件事都基于比特币，但所有会计记录又必须同时以美元呈现。

And if we end up building or coming up with a system that we all really like and seems to be something that we wanna do indefinitely, I will we'll do everything we can to try to make it available, easy to plug in to, you know, your Excel spreadsheet or whatnot because we are having to do a lot of this stuff because everything we do in is in Bitcoin and all of the accounting has to be in dollars at the same time.

但你知道为什么我们能把它当作交换媒介吗？

But you know why we're able to use it as a medium of exchange?

不是因为我大发慈悲。

It's not because I'm I'm being charitable.

也不是因为我真的想把它当作交换媒介。

It's not because, like, I really wanna use it as a medium exchange.

我真正想做的是用比特币而非法币来支付报酬。

I really wanna I really wanna pay people in Bitcoin as opposed to Fiat.

不。

No.

因为每个人都是比特币信徒，每个人都想要比特币。

It's because everybody is a Bitcoiner, and everybody wants the Bitcoin.

我们首先是持有者，其次才是聪的接收者。

We are all holders first, and we are receivers of Sats second.

该死的，各位。

Damn it, people.

这具有极强的路径依赖性。

It is so path dependent.

其路径依赖性如此明显，你必须首先将比特币视为长期持有的资产，才会想要经常使用并要求用它来支付。

It's so clearly path dependent that you first have to value Bitcoin as something to hold over the long term in order to want to regularly and demand it as payment.

正如林·奥尔登直白指出的，这不会以慈善形式实现。

And as Lin Alden says very plainly, it's not going to happen as a charity.

如果仅仅因为比特币持有者想无缘无故地使用它，甚至在特定场景下使用对他们并无明显好处，那这种情况就不会发生。

If it has to happen because Bitcoiners want to go use it for no particular reason and it's not even super beneficial for them to use it in the scenario, then it's not going to happen.

好吧。

Alright.

谈到比特币的不同发展阶段时，我认为她精准把握了一个关键点：当人们讨论现在是企业比特币时代、政府比特币时代等等话题时，为何会莫名其妙出现普通个人、密码朋克、开发者等零售用户无法购买比特币的说法？

Now, when it comes to like the different eras of Bitcoin, this is this is one that I think she just hit really good and I think is really important to explain, is when people are talking about like, now it's like corporate Bitcoin and now it's government Bitcoin and all of this stuff and now inexplicably normal individuals and cypherpunks and builders and everybody retail can't purchase Bitcoin?

显然我并不认同，这完全不符合事实。

I don't obviously, that is not true.

引用原话——'幸运的是，这一点很重要：每个新阶段都包含前一个阶段'。

So, quote, fortunately, and this is important, each era still includes the prior ones.

尽管目前企业是净买入主力，零售投资者同样可以随心所欲地购买。

Even though corporations are doing most of the net buying currently, retail investors can still buy as much as they want as well.

事实上，现在购买比特币并安全自主保管比以往任何时候都更容易。

In fact, it's never been easier to buy Bitcoin and take safe self custody of it.

有大量资源指导具体操作方法。

There are plenty of resources explaining how to do it.

目前有多款经济实惠且可靠的钱包解决方案，且链上交易手续费处于低位。

Multiple inexpensive and robust wallet solutions, and on chain transaction fees are currently low.

我看到人们说，比特币本应是属于普通人的。

I see people say things like, I thought Bitcoin was supposed to be for people.

现在它成了点对点现金。

Now it's for peer to peer cash.

现在全是大型企业。

Now it's all big corporations.

但它确实属于人民。

And it is for people.

任何能上网的人都可以购买、持有或发送它。

Anyone with an internet access can buy it, hold it, or send it.

大机构购买比特币并不会否定这些特性。

None of that is negated by large entities buying it as well.

这个。

This.

所以密码朋克的本质什么都没变——谁可以购买、能否进行点对点电子现金交易、点对点市场运作，或是在Nostril上闪电转账。

So the like nothing nothing has changed about the cypherpunk nature, who can buy it, about whether or not you can do peer to peer electronic cash, or peer to peer markets, or zap people on Nostril.

这些都不会因为大公司购买比特币成为当下热点而改变。

Like, none of that changes just because large corporations buying it are currently the talk of the town.

只是因为大公司资金雄厚，作为网络新成员入场才成为话题焦点。

It's just that large corporations buying it are the talk of the town, because they have a lot of capital, and they're the new people in the new entrants into the network.

但这完全不会改变之前的时代特征。

But it absolutely changes nothing about the prior eras.

事实上，所有这些层级依然存在，比特币正在流动性阶梯上逐步定价。

In fact, all of those layers still exist, and what's happening is that it's getting it's pricing itself up the ladder of liquidity.

就像是，好吧。

It's like, okay.

现在这种资产在哪里具备足够的流动性、规模和可信度——或者说足够的合法性——能够进入市场的新层级？

Where is this asset now liquid and large and and and trustworthy enough or legitimate and legitimate enough to now enter into a new layer of the market?

但其他层级并没有消失。

But none of those other layers are gone.

它们实际上就潜藏在当前成为大新闻的那个层级之下。

They're literally underneath the the layer that it is now currently the big news in.

我只能以自己为例——如今我使用比特币的频率比以往任何时候都高。

All I can do is use myself as an example is I use Bitcoin more today than I have ever used it ever.

我用比特币做什么来着？我们...

I've used Bitcoin for what are we?

已经十四年了。

We're fourteen fourteen years now.

天啊。

Holy crap.

我一直都在使用它。

I have used it all the time.

我长期持有它。

I've held it for a long time.

我也增持过。

I've I've bought more.

还卖出过一些。

I've sold some.

我损失了一些。

I've lost some.

我用遍了天下所有的钱包。

I've used every wallet under the sun.

人们说闪电网络不好用，我却频繁用它电击别人。

People say lightning doesn't work, I zap people so much.

我使用的闪电网络交易量比过去三个月都多。

I use I have more lightning transactions than in in the last three months.

我敢保证，过去三个月的闪电交易量比我最初十年使用比特币时的交易总量还多，而且我确实一直在用。

I guarantee you, I've had more lightning transactions in the last three months than I did Bitcoin transactions in the first ten years that I used Bitcoin, and I was using it.

我打赌去年我的链上比特币交易量比最初十年使用比特币时的总量还多，尽管那时我也在用。

And I bet I have more Bitcoin, like on chain transactions in the last year than I had in the first ten years of using Bitcoin, and I was using it.

我各种钱包种子、备份和密钥管理问题已经呈指数级增长。

My various wallet seeds and backups and and keys problem has become an exponential problem.

所以当有人说'现在都是大公司掌控'时，

So when somebody is like, oh, now it's all just big corporations.