Read_921 - 街机、加密货币与唯有强者生存

核心观点是'适者生存'这一说法是正确的。

The broad point is that only the strong survive was correct.

我们正在进入加密货币失去存在理由的终局阶段。

We are entering the endgame of crypto having any reason to exist.

我认为它存在的根本原因，是赌博新渠道与杀熟骗局的结合体。

My thesis as to why it exists at all is a combination of a novel vector for gambling and an affinity scam.

比特币极难理解——尽管它本质上'解决'的是货币超发问题，但讽刺的是，其新颖性反而容易让外行和缺乏耐心的人被区块链技术的空洞说辞迷惑，这些说辞最终都表现为试图超发货币。

Bitcoin is extremely difficult to even begin to understand, and even though what it fundamentally, quote, fixes is money printing, its novelty ironically lends itself to confusing the uninitiated and impatient with meaningless appeals to blockchain technology that manifest as attempts to print money.

比特币领域的精华内容尽在Audible。

The best in Bitcoin made Audible.

我是盖伊·斯旺，这里是《比特币可听》。

I am Guy Swan, and this is Bitcoin Audible.

大家好，最近怎么样？

What is up, guys?

欢迎回到《比特币可听》。

Welcome back to Bitcoin Audible.

我是盖伊·斯旺，一个比你认识的任何人都更了解比特币的人。

I am Guy Swan, the guy who has read more about Bitcoin than anybody else you know.

今天我们有一期精彩的节目。

We've got a great episode today.

我们要再读一篇艾伦·法林顿的文章。

We've gotta read another one from Alan Farrington.

篇幅很短。

It's short.

这篇实际上发表在领英上，算是《唯有强者生存》的后续——如果你还没听过或读过那篇，绝对应该补上。

This one's actually actually was on LinkedIn, and it's kind of a follow-up to only the strong survive, which if you have not listened or read that one, you definitely need to.

我在节目说明里放了链接。

I have the link down in the show notes.

这是篇精彩文章，从概念层面剖析了DeFi和整个加密货币理念的根本问题。

It's a fantastic piece breaking down conceptually everything fundamentally wrong with DeFi and the concept of crypto in general.

基本上阐述了货币为何趋向统一的理论，指出其价值在于信任与保障，而加密货币在构建目标和方式上的根本思维错误，并具体分析了该理论与现实完美吻合的环节及原因，本质上这是对前文的强化补充，再次证明：不。

Basically, laying out the theory of why money tends toward one, why the value of this is trust and its assurances, where crypto has fundamentally made a mistake in its entire thinking of what to build and how to build it, and then explicitly breaking down where and why that theory is aligning perfectly with the reality, and this is essentially a follow-up doubling down on that showing yet again, no.

我是对的，这里有太多不同的例子可以证明我为什么是对的以及如何是对的。

I was right, and this is this these are so many different examples of exactly why and how I was right.

我们正处在他所预言的未来中，并且仍在朝着同一个方向前进。

We have found ourselves in exactly the future he had predicted, still headed in the same direction.

你不需要过得像个穷人一样才能继续持有并积累比特币。

You don't have to live like a poor person to keep holding your Bitcoin to stack.

你当然应该量入为出，但不必为了做到这一点而开一辆1992年的车，因为你可以在leaden.io获得比特币抵押贷款。

You should certainly live below your means, but you don't have to drive a car from 1992 in order to pull this off because you can get a Bitcoin backed loan at leaden.io.

这是一种比特币抵押贷款的方式。

This is a way to do a Bitcoin collateralized loan.

你可以保留比特币，同时获得法币贷款，无需任何信用审核、繁琐手续或签署文件的麻烦。

You keep your Bitcoin, but you can get a fiat loan without any of the credit hassle or credit check or the all the paper, the signing, and just the mess of getting fiat credit.

你可以快速获得一笔简单的贷款，而且不必出售比特币。

You can get a simple loan extremely quickly, and you don't have to sell your Bitcoin.

你可以靠它生活。

You can live off it.

去看看他们吧。

Check them out.

节目说明中的链接里其实有折扣优惠。

There is actually a discount at the link right down in the show notes.

另外，要向pubkey（pubky.app）致敬。

Also, a shout out to pubkey, pubky.app.

他们开发了一整套完整的协议栈，旨在让网络重新去中心化，让用户重新掌控自己的内容、网络、连接、DNS等方方面面，而且易于开发。

They have developed an entire entire protocol stack for the web to re decentralize, put the user back in control of their content, their networks, their connections, their DNS, you name it, and they are easy to build with.

如果你是开发者，正在构建应用，并且想要开发一个去中心化版本——一个用户真正掌握控制权的版本，千万别错过pubkey团队已经构建的成果。

If you're a builder, if you're building an app, and you want to build a decentralized version, one where the user is in control, do not sleep on what the pubkey guys have built.

如果你整天对着屏幕工作，一定要关注光线健康问题。

And if you are working with screens all the time, you have gotta get your light health right.

它对你的伤害可能比你想象的要大，特别是如果你在深夜还保持亢奋状态。

It's probably doing you more damage than you think, especially if you have have you know, you're wired at the very end of the night.

晚上11点了，却感觉这才是你真正能做成点事的时候，而开始新的一天却要花上五个小时。

It's 11:00 at night, and now it feels like the only time that you can actually get something done, and it takes five hours to actually get the day started.

你的问题可能与你的倾向或DNA之类的东西毫无关系。

Your problem might have nothing to do with your tendency or DNA or anything like that.

你可能存在光线和激素问题。

You might have a light and hormone problem.

我认为你能为此做的最重要的事情，也是帮助过我的，就是买一副Chroma的夜视镜。

The number one thing I think you could do to help this and has helped me is get some nightshades from Chroma.

现在有10%的折扣。

There's a 10% discount.

这是我在每天日落时分都会戴上的蓝绿光防护眼镜。

These are blue and green light blocking glasses that I just put on at sundown every night.

链接和折扣码就在节目说明里。

Link and discount codes right down in the show notes.

最后要说的是HRF。

And then lastly, the HRF.

他们举办的奥斯陆自由论坛正在售票中。

They have the Oslo Freedom Forum, which tickets are on sale.

今年六月或者明年六月有一场活动。

There's a June this year and or next year.

不好意思。

Excuse me.

他们精彩的《财务自由报告》通讯，所有这些你都可以在本播客的简介中找到。

And their amazing newsletter, the Financial Freedom Report, all of which you will find right down in the description of this podcast.

好的。

Alright.

非常感谢我们的赞助商和AudioKnots对我工作的支持，以及总是提供一些很棒的内容。

Big thanks to our sponsors and to the AudioKnots for supporting my work, and for, always having some great.

TK其实提出了一些非常棒的文章建议，将会在节目中呈现。

TK has had some really great article suggestions actually that will be coming up on the show.

向他以及你们所有人致敬。

Shout out to him and all of you guys.

实际上我还有一些独家片段即将发布到AudioKnots，包括我们最近几期聊天节目的内容，因为我让嘉宾们参与了节目前或后的对话，这些将是AudioKnots独家的。

I've actually got some exclusive clips coming to the AudioKnots of, last few chat episodes that we've had because I've I've kept the guys on for either a pre show or post show conversation, and that will be exclusive to the AudioKnots.

所以我想让大家知道这个消息即将到来。

So I just wanted you guys to know that that is coming.

敬请期待。

Stay tuned.

言归正传，让我们开始今天这篇文章。

And with that, let's get into today's article.

文章标题是《街机加密与唯有强者生存》，作者艾伦·法林顿。

And it's titled Arcade Crypto and Only the Strong Surviving by Alan Farrington.

2021年我合著了《唯有强者生存》，指出当时对DeFi的狂热几乎完全是妄想、自我参照且缺乏经济常识的——那些收益率没有经济现实基础，而是源于无担保杠杆、再抵押和证券化，当找不到更大的傻瓜接盘时必然崩溃。

In 2021, I co wrote Only the Strong Survive, making the argument that the contemporary furor over DeFi was almost entirely delusional, self referential, and economically illiterate, that the yields had no basis in economic reality and instead followed from unbacked leverage, rehypothecation, and securitization, and that it would inevitably collapse when it ran out of greater fools.

约翰·菲弗的论文《基于经典——机构投资者视角下的加密资产》（附链接），甚至追溯到安德鲁·波斯特拉的《权益证明无法实现分布式共识》（同样附链接）。

The paper Built on Classics by John Pfeffer, An Institutional Investor's Take on Crypto Assets, link provided, and even as far back as Andrew Polstra's Distributed Consensus from Proof of Stake is Impossible, link also available.

虽然立即被几乎所有知名比特币玩家转发，但真正推波助澜的是杰克·多尔西和迈克·诺沃格拉茨。我很自豪地说这篇论文至今仍被视为比特币祛魅的经典之作，而且客观说经受住了时间考验。

Immediately retweeted by virtually every prominent Bitcoiner, but really amplified by Jack Dorsey and Mike Novogratz, I am proud to say the paper is still referred to as a canonical piece of Bitcoin debunkery, and for what it's worth, holds up pretty well.

鲜少有人记得的曙光（考虑到被揭穿的疯狂现象，以及一切几乎完全如预测般崩塌）是文中论证：假以时日，那些被吹捧为加密领域革命性的功能，最终在比特币上同样能够实现。

The silver lining, which hardly anybody remembers given the insanity of what was being debunked, and the fact that it all collapsed almost exactly as predicted, was the section arguing that in due course, all the same capabilities being touted as revolutionary in crypto would eventually become possible on Bitcoin too.

长久以来，这不过是个论点，甚至可以说是一种希望。

For a long time this has been little more than an argument, a hope even.

从加密货币的角度来看，我甚至能理解将其解读为极端主义者的自我安慰。

From the crypto perspective I even understand interpreting this as cope on the part of toxic maximalists.

但上周，这成为了现实。

But last week it became a reality.

2025年10月21日星期二，ARK实验室在瑞士卢加诺将Arcade部署至比特币主网——这是自闪电网络以来首个真正的比特币二层网络，也是首个让比特币真正可编程的工具。

On Tuesday, 10/21/2025 in Lugano, Switzerland, ARK Labs launched Arcade on Bitcoin mainnet, the first true Layer two on Bitcoin since the Lightning Network and the first ever tool to make Bitcoin truly programmable.

我很荣幸在发布会上发言，并阐述了本文中提到的许多观点。

I was honored to speak at the launch event and say many of the things I am saying in this article.

与此同时，Alpen实验室和Chainway实验室将在未来几个月推出Alpen和Citria零知识rollup方案，将以太坊虚拟机引入比特币，与Arcade的UTXO中心模型形成有趣对比。

In the wings, Alpen Labs and Chainway Labs are due to launch the Alpen and Citria Zero Knowledge rollups in the coming months, bringing the EVM to Bitcoin as an interesting contrast to Arcade's UTXO centric model.

最后，鉴于加密货币唯一真正的用例已被证明是稳定币，值得注意的是Tether（至少目前唯一值得关注的稳定币发行方）已承诺将在Taproot资产和RGB上发行，这两者都能与闪电网络及ARK实现无缝原子化互操作。

And finally, given the only real use case of crypto has turned out to be stablecoins, it is worth noting that Tether, the only stablecoin issuer worth paying attention to at least so far, has committed to issuing on taproot assets and RGB, both of which interoperate seamlessly and atomically with Lightning and ARK.

ARK实验室已为此用例创建演示，链接在此。

ARK Labs created a demo of this use case available here.

如果你感兴趣，可以单独阅读我的论文，了解为什么稳定币最终必然转向闪电网络。

If you are interested, you can separately read my thesis on why stablecoins moving to lightning is inevitable in the very long run anyway.

我说这些是为了阐明两点，一个具体，一个宏观。

I say all this to make two points, one narrow and one broad.

具体点是Acxiom同时投资了ArcLabs、Alpen和Chainway，以及基础设施公司如Voltage、IBEX、Neutron、Gitbit。

The narrow point is that Acxiom is an investor in all of ArcLabs, Alpen and Chainway, as well as infrastructure companies such as Voltage, IBEX, Neutron, Gitbit.

还有Musket、Coincorner和Blockspaces，这些公司都将从闪电网络上必然发生的稳定币推广中获益匪浅。

In, Musket, and Coincorner and Blockspaces, all of whom stand to benefit enormously from enabling an inevitable stablecoin rollout on Lightning.

鉴于我们专注于基础创新和深厚技术理解，我们从不参与短期代币炒作、所谓的新L1链或任何当下的骗局。

Given our focus on foundational innovation and deep technical understanding, we've never been interested in short term token pump and dumps or quote new L1s or whatever the scam du jour happens to be.

相反，我们已耐心等待这一刻多年。

Rather we have been patiently awaiting this moment for years.

若想探讨我们对该领域的策略及对比特币Layer 2的看法，欢迎联系。

If you would like to discuss our approach to the space and our thoughts on Bitcoin Layer 2s, please reach out.

宏观观点是：唯有强者生存——这句话是正确的。

The broad point is that only the strong survive was correct.

我们正在进入加密货币存在理由的终局阶段。

We are entering the endgame of crypto having any reason to exist.

我认为它存在的理由本质上是新型赌博载体与亲和骗局的结合体。

My thesis as to why it exists at all is as a combination of a novel vector for gambling and an affinity scam.

比特币极难被真正理解——尽管它根本上解决的是货币超发问题，但其新颖性反而容易让缺乏耐心的人被区块链技术的空洞说辞迷惑，最终沦为变相印钞的尝试。

Bitcoin is extremely difficult to even begin to understand, and even though what it fundamentally fixes is money printing, its novelty ironically lends itself to confusing the uninitiated and impatient with meaningless appeals to blockchain technology that manifest as attempts to print money.

这并不是说所有参与者都参与了骗局。

That is not to say that everybody involved has been in on the scam, so to speak.

我长期认为多数开发者和学者的参与，本质上是在无良金融家的操控下遭受了可悲的剥削。

I have thought for a long time that the participation of most developers and academics has been on tragically exploitative terms at the behest of unscrupulous financiers.

毕竟长期以来，比特币刻意限制可编程性有其充分理由，而加密货币领域对此的追捧却毫无道理。

After all, it has been true for a long time that programmability has been limited in Bitcoin for a good reason and coveted and embraced in crypto for no reason.

加密领域确实催生了许多突破性密码学研究，但这些成果除了让骗局更高效、包装更华丽外收效甚微。

A great deal of breakthrough cryptography research has emerged from the crypto space, yet has achieved little more than making scams more efficient and giving them shinier wrappers.

但我要强调的是：现在技术已成熟，这些人完全可以离开加密领域，停止无意间助长赌博（往好了说）或骗局（往坏了说）的行为，转而投身于我们时代最重要的技术革命。

But it is to say that the technology now exists for these people to leave crypto behind, stop inadvertently contributing to gambling at best and scams at worst, and contribute instead to the most important technological revolution of our lifetime.

别再搭建一层网络了。

Stop spinning up layer ones.

比特币就是基础层。

Bitcoin is the layer one.

别再发行代币了。

Stop issuing tokens.

比特币就是代币。

Bitcoin is the token.

现在已经没有任何理由假装事实并非如此。

There are no longer any grounds to pretend this is not the case.

Arcade是真实存在的。

Arcade is real.

它不是概念、白皮书或未来才去中心化的空气项目。

It is not an idea or a white paper or vaporware to be decentralized later.

你现在就可以使用它。

You can use it today.

Arcadeos.com 对于那些被加密金融家花言巧语蒙蔽的资本配置者，看着关于这一切意义的叙事不断变化，忍受着要么是可笑的亏损要么是只能来自对散户抛售的回报（鉴于根本未创造出任何有用技术），停下来问问这些人：为什么？

Arcadeos.com For those capital allocators hoodwinked by the rhetoric of crypto financiers, watching the narrative constantly change as to what the point of any of this even is, putting up with either the comical losses or returns that can only conceivably have come from dumping on retail given zero useful technology has been created, stop and ask these people, why?

为什么你们不使用Arcade？

Why aren't you using arcade?

为什么你们要发行代币？

Why are you issuing tokens?

当这项技术要解决的正是货币超发问题，为什么你们还在试图印钱？

Why are you trying to print money when that is precisely the problem this technology solves?

你们存在的意义到底是什么？

Why do you even exist?

我为什么要付钱给你们？我到底在买什么？

Why am I paying you and what am I buying?

时间不多了，只有强者才能生存。

The clock is ticking and only the strong will survive.

好吧。

Okay.

我记得在上一期节目里，具体不太清楚了

So in, I believe it was the previous episode I don't know.

在最近某一期节目中，我曾提到我以为自己误解了arcade，以为它与arc无关

One of one of the recent episodes, I mentioned that I thought I had misunderstand arcade and that it wasn't arc related.

后来我深入研究阅读后才发现，哦不

And then I went digging and reading, and I was like, oh, no.

它绝对与arc有关联

It definitely is arc related.

而且显然，Alan Farrington在文章中也强调了这一点

And then, obviously, Alan Farrington also makes that point in this article.

但这实际上又回到了我们刚在节目中讨论过的中介问题——或者说中介角色的那篇文章

But this actually relates back to the intermediary oh, well, intermediaries article that we just covered on the show or the role of intermediaries.

我提出的一个观点是，ARC、Lightning、eCache这些聚合服务与LSP（服务提供商模式）的结合展现出极其强大的潜力，关键在于找到各种体系的最佳结合点

And one thing that I brought up and I really think is super powerful about what we're seeing with the combination of ARC, Lightning, eCache, these sorts of kind of aggregate and service and LSPs, these, like, service provider style models, is that it gets the it's about finding the best of all the various worlds.

中心化的核心问题在于它总是伴随着绝对控制权

Like, centralization the the major problem that we have always had with centralization is that it comes with total control.

中心化始终意味着——尤其在法币体系中——当你审视中间人或中介机构在实体金融领域，或是在一个依赖中介的信任框架下持有法币资产时，某种需要他人兑付的信用代币，其作为促进者的角色最终会与资源本身的实际控制权根本性地绑定。

Is that centralization has always meant, especially in the fiat sense, when when you're looking at middleman or you're looking at middlemen or intermediaries in physical fit space or in a trusted setup with intermediaries in a fiat holding fiat assets, some some sort of trusted token that someone has to redeem, is that the role of being a facilitator ends up also creating or becomes fundamentally attached to the actual control of the resource itself.

比如，你不可能找到一个不会坑你的金融中介。

Like, you can't have a financial intermediary that isn't also able to screw you.

你不可能找到一个既能帮你把包裹从A地运到B地，又无法破坏或偷窃包裹的承运人。

You can't have someone that ships your package from a to b who can't also destroy your package or steal it.

你无法通过两家不同中介寄送同一包裹，然后只选择表现更好的那家。

You can't ship the same package with two different intermediaries and then just accept the one that does the job better.

在法币金融世界里，不存在这样的服务或实体：它能促成两人间的交易并转移资金，却无需实际掌控——即明确拥有你的全部资金。

You can't have some service or entity in the fiat financial world that facilitates a transaction between two people or enables it and moves the funds from a to b without them actually owning like, giving them explicitly all of your funds.

因此当提到中心化时，人们立刻联想到中央服务商或服务器——社交媒体领域同样如此。

And so when you say the word centralization immediately or or a central provider or a server, everybody always and, you know, this is the same thing with social media.

对吧？

Right?

你不可能拥有一个不掌控你社交网络的社交媒体服务商——它决定你的关注者是谁，有能力审查、操纵或删除你的消息、帖子或私信，阻止你与双方都想联系的人建立沟通。

You can't you can't have a social media service or provider that doesn't control your network, that doesn't decide who your followers are, that doesn't have the the ability to censor or manipulate or delete your messages or your posts or your DMs to prevent you from actually communicating or connecting to someone who on both sides, you may want to connect and communicate.

这里有个中间人甚至不是你们对话的一部分，他只是理论上负责让我能找到你，而你我想要互相交谈。另一个与对话无关的外部人员，本应毫无发言权的人，却在决定我们能否交谈，更重要的是，决定我们是否甚至能在这个空间里看到彼此。

Here is a middleman who is not even part of your conversation, who is just there supposedly to make it so I can find you, and you and I want to talk to each other And someone else external to the conversation that's not relevant to it, that shouldn't even have any say at all is saying is deciding whether or not we can have a conversation or, more importantly, whether or not we even see each other in this space.

所以当你听到‘服务器’这个词，听到‘中心化’或‘提供商’、‘运营商’这类词时，这些概念会立刻与之绑定，因为这就是我们过去一直以来的现实。

So when you hear the word server, when you hear the word centralization or provider or something, or operator, you immediately it immediately comes attached to those ideas because that's simply what we've always had in the past.

如果我们想避免这种情况，总是因为我们想要某种所谓的‘去中心化’或‘隐私’方案，而这些方案总是笨拙难用，附带一堆其他妥协，用户体验极差，需要某种技术性或复杂的迂回方式。

And if we wanted to avoid that, it was always because we wanted something, quote, unquote, decentralized or private that was always clunky, that sucked, that came with a dozen other trade offs, had a horrible UX, required some technical or elaborate, you know, roundabout way.

它永远都是那个刻意更不方便的选择。

It was always the aggressively more inconvenient option.

就像，从来没有任何真正的可比性。

Like, there was no there was never really any real comparison.

所谓的‘去中心化’选项根本就没真正奏效过。

The quote, unquote, decentralized option just never worked.

对绝大多数人来说，它从来就不是一个现实可行的选择。

Like, it was never a realistic option for the overwhelming majority of people.

就像，存在一个能用的版本，然后存在一个安全或好的版本。

Like, there there was the version that worked, and then there was the version that was safe or good.

而且通常这个版本仍伴随着一堆妥协。

And usually still that one still came with a handful of trade offs.

就像，它甚至根本没解决问题。

Like, doesn't it didn't even solve the problem.

它只是稍微好那么一点点，却痛苦得多。

It was just kinda like slightly better, way more painful.

于是我们开始将这两个概念联系起来。

And so we came to associate these two terms.

基于丰富经验，我们逐渐相信这两件事必然相互关联。

We came to believe out of extensive experience that these these two things were necessarily attached to each other.

然后比特币和闪电网络出现了，突然间你可以通过他人路由支付。

Then Bitcoin comes along and the Lightning Network, and suddenly, you can route a payment through other people.

其他人可以促成支付、提供流动性，成为资金从你流向他人的路径伙伴——却从未掌控资金，不构成资金是否真实存在的风险，更不会影响你随时提款离场的自由。

Other people can facilitate the payment, can provide liquidity that can be a partner in the route of money from you to someone else without ever having control of the funds, without ever being a risk as to whether or not the funds exist in the first place, without ever compromising the fact that you can take your money and leave, and nobody else can tell you otherwise.

我觉得人们没有充分重视这点，因为它看起来就像‘本该如此’

I don't think people respect because it's just like, oh, it just is.

人们很容易忘记这项创新有多么深刻。

It's really easy to forget how utterly profound that innovation is.

就像，我前几天刚发了个帖子。

Like, I'll talk about I just made a post the other day.

对吧？

Right?

我刚做了个关于储备证明的视频，你还没看吧。

I just made a video on proof of reserves if you haven't seen it.

在那个案例中，我特别讨论的是需要建立信任关系的情况——即有人必须代表你持有比特币。

And in that case, I'm talking specifically about things where you have a trusted relationship where somebody else has to hold Bitcoin, on your behalf.

但我们不需要为Ark或闪电网络做储备证明，因为它的结构本身就是储备证明。

But we don't have to have proof of reserves for Ark or for Lightning Network because the structure of it is a proof of reserves.

因为它完全依赖比特币来确认储备的真实性——交易要么有效，要么无效。

Like, it it's just it it relies on Bitcoin to know that the reserves are the reserves because the transaction is just valid or not.

它对比特币规则的遵循程度与比特币本身一样严格，因为闪电网络上发生的每笔交易都是真实的比特币交易。

Like, it it it's as tightly adherent to the rules of Bitcoin as Bitcoin itself because everything that actually happens on the Lightning Network is a real Bitcoin transaction.

它们都是预先签署的交易。

Like, they are all presigned transactions.

就像，如果你不能——我是说，显然我可以预先签署一个包含十亿比特币的交易，但这毫无意义，因为它根本不会有效。

Like, if you can't I mean, obviously, I could presign a transaction with a billion Bitcoin in it, and that would do me no good, but then it literally it just wouldn't be valid.

就像，我在做选择。

Like like, I'm choosing.

实际上我在决定——我可以这样做，就像用我的比特币笔记一样：我可以让别人发给我一个价值十亿比特币的交易，然后我只需修改我的笔记说‘哦不’。

I'm literally deciding it would just be I I could do that the same as just with my Bitcoin note is I could have someone send me a Bitcoin transaction to send me a billion Bitcoin, and then I could just modify my note to say, oh, no.

不。

No.

对。

Yeah.

这个会有效，我会接受的。

This is this is gonna work, and I'll accept it.

但那样做的话，我就太蠢了。

But that would just be like, I would just be retarded.

到那时我就不会使用比特币了，因为我明确修改了我的软件使其不与比特币兼容。

I would just I would not be using Bitcoin at that point because I've explicitly modified my software to not work with Bitcoin.

你只是在验证比特币，就像在比特币网络中一样，在闪电网络中也能完全确认交易是否有效、金额是否有效以及所有细节。

You were just checking Bitcoin and knowing exactly whether or not the transaction is valid and the amount is valid and everything in every single way with the Lightning Network as you are with Bitcoin.

从交易有效性的角度来看，两者之间根本没有任何区别。

There's literally no distinguishing between the two at all from the context of what is valid and what is not.

Arc也是完全一样的原理。

Arc is the exact same way.

你只能签署、只能接收实际存在的比特币。

You can only sign, you can only receive Bitcoin that actually exists.

更疯狂的是它是非托管的。

And even crazier is that it is non custodial.

他们并不控制资金。

They do not control the funds.

你随时掌握着可以上链的数据，可以随时提款退出。

You have the data to post to the chain at all times to take your money and leave.

这就是银行业的未来。

This is the future of banking.

这简直就是一场革命。

Like, this is the revolution.

它已经基本可以按我们所需的规模无限扩展。

This already can scale essentially as far as we need it to.

想想看。

Think about it.

比特币目前每天能处理大约60万笔交易。

So Bitcoin can do, like, you know, 600,000 transaction a day, something like that.

如果全力运作的话，或许能达到百万级别。

Maybe maybe upwards to a million, depending on exactly how packed we can we can make this thing.

我记得有个粗略估算——和Merch聊天时他提到每秒14笔交易。

I think there's been rough estimate, like, think when I was talking to merch, he mentioned, like, 14 transactions per second.

每个区块大概能提升到8000笔左右吧。

Like, that goes up to, I don't know, like 8,000 a block or something like that.

8000笔交易

8,000 transactions.

但无论如何，为了简单起见，我们就说50万笔吧

But regardless, let's just call it let's just call it half 1,000,000 for the sake of simplicity.

地球上有70亿人口

You got 7,000,000,000 people on earth.

假设他们都由一个接入所有不同ARC网络通道的ARC提供服务

Let's say they're all being provided by an arc that has channels into the network of all of the various arcs.

这本质上就是闪电网络——一个相互连接的网状结构，一个单播网络，其中ARC就是所谓的'闪电服务提供商'模式，每个人在ARC内都有一个余额，实际上就是一个通道

That's essentially what the Lightning Network is, is a a web of interconnected, a uniparty or excuse me, a a unicast network where arc is basically the quote, unquote lightning service provider model, and everybody has a balance inside the ARC, which is actually a channel.

ARC本质上提供银行服务

And ARC essentially provides the the banking services.

它成为银行，所有人都通过这些银行连接，或者他们可以直接运营自己的银行并创建自己的闪电通道

It becomes the bank, and everyone connects through these banks, or they can literally run their own bank and create their own lightning channels.

他们仍然可以选择其他所有方式，因为这完全是一个开放网络，可以连接并支付这个巨型去中心化网络中世界任何地方的人

They can still do all of the other options, because this is all just an open network and connects to and pay anyone in the world from anywhere in this giant decentralized network.

如果ARC是默认的交互方式，那么每个ARC平均只需为约15,000到20,000人提供服务，就能让所有用户实现链下结算或再平衡——虽然不是在闪电网络上，而是每天在链上结算一次，费用几乎为零，因为这就是比特币的基础容量。

Well, if the ARC is the default way to interact, well, then every ARC only really has to provide services for, like, an average of 15,000, 20,000 people for all of them to be able to resettle or rebalance between themselves, not on Lightning, but on chain once a day at virtually zero fees because that's just the that's the base capacity of Bitcoin.

如果其中某个ARC失效，假设有20,000人需要立即上链结算，大概只需要五个区块就能完成清算。

And if one of these arc, one of these arcs fail and let's say 20,000 people have to immediately go to chain, it takes, like, five blocks to clear.

将他们转移到新ARC的过程可以这样设计：提供多路径选项，比如既能发送到我的冷存储，也能发送到所谓的'保险ARC'，由它批量处理将我转入下一个ARC。

Getting them into a new arc or, you know, rolling out let's say let's say they have you have multipath options where you could literally have it so that, like, oh, I could send it to my own cold storage, or I could send it to this, quote, unquote, insurance ARC that is going to batch to get me into the next arc.

因此我实际上是与ARC内的其他人分摊费用。

And so I'd so I'm paying I'm splitting fees with other people inside this arc.

当然，你会看到一些服务提供商会取得巨大成功。

And, of course, you're going to have service providers that are actually wildly successful.

对吧？

Right?

有些服务商可能有1000万用户，甚至1亿用户，谁知道呢？

You're gonna have service providers that maybe have 10,000,000 users, a 100,000,000 users, who even knows?

但无论与任何规模的服务商交互，体验都将基本无差别，因为他们都能通过闪电网络互通，所有人只需支付和接收闪电发票。

But operating with any of them at any scale is largely going to be indistinguishable because they can all communicate with each other over the Lightning Network, and everybody just pays and receives Lightning invoices.

但这里有个非常有趣的要素：因为运营者本质上扮演着资金转移的某种仲裁角色，却无需实际放弃托管权。

But add to this a really interesting element is that because the operator is essentially a an adjudicator of sorts of the movement of funds from one place to another without actually giving up custody.

实际上，ARC提供商正在提供流动性。

And, actually, the ARC provider is actually offering up liquidity.

当他们签署时实际上承担了风险，因为他们为交易安全提供了后台的比特币支持。

They are actually taking the risk when they sign over because they are providing Bitcoin on the back end for the transaction to actually be secured.

但由于他们处于这种协调者位置，本质上可以在更广泛的条件范围内运作。

But because they're in this kind of facilitator position, they can essentially operate on a broader range of conditions that can be put.

因此，这种ARC脚本运用了多种技术手段。

So there's this this the arcade script has made use of a number of different things.

其中一点是——虽然文档中没有明确拆解每个模块的功能——但他们的ARC脚本包含内省功能，允许交易引用交易内的特定内容，这正是实现契约功能和基于前序交易构建条件的关键。

So one of the things that and they don't actually break it down in the in the documentation explicitly, like what every individual piece does, but they have something in car Arcade scripts that allows introspection, which allows the transaction to actually refer to something in the transaction, which is exactly what enables things like covenants and conditions that are built on the prior, the prior transaction.

他们将其与Taproot结合使用，后者能实现更深入复杂的脚本条件，同时当然也能保持隐私性。

And then they use this in combination with Taproot, which has the possibility for far deeper and more complex scripting conditions that can actually be private, obviously, as well.

还有密钥调整技术——虽然我同样不了解每个技术细节的具体实现方式，但要完全解析其运作原理恐怕需要单独做一期节目来深入探讨。

And then also key tweaking, which I don't again, I don't know the deep specifics on exactly how they do each one of these pieces and how it puts together that I'm sure it would require its own episode to kind of dig into exactly how it works.

但我们之前讨论过密钥调整

But we have talked about key tweaking.

这本质上是一种基于与脚本无关的条件来设置的方式

It's it's kind of a way to to to put in it's it's almost a way to put in a condition based on something that has nothing to do with the script.

密钥本身在没有其他计算或数据的情况下是无效的，或者说更重要的是，它能证明你知晓某个必须知道的信息片段

The the key itself isn't valid without some other computation or piece of data, or I guess more importantly, proves that you know some piece of information that you would have to know.

而且它能在不实际泄露该信息的情况下做到这一点

And it does so without actually revealing that thing.

从概念上说，这有点像哈希——你得到的是信息的指纹

It's it's a little bit like a hash in conceptually in that way, I guess, is that you've kinda got, like, a fingerprint of the information.

正因如此，当有人稍后出示该信息时，你可以通过匹配哈希来证明你当时确实拥有该信息

And and because of that, you can prove that you had the information at that time if somebody presents it later and you you match it to the hash.

密钥调整就有点类似这样——根据我的高层理解，你是用一段可以最终承诺的信息来调整密钥

Well, key tweaking is a little bit like that from from kind of, like, my kinda high level understanding of it is that you're tweaking the key with a piece of information that you can then essentially commit to.

所以你可以承诺一个附加合约，或者承诺要运行的某个软件脚本

So you can commit to, like, an additional contract or you commit to, like, some software, like, some script that you're actually going to run.

据我理解，这正是如何能在交易背后隐藏所有复杂性和大量脚本的关键所在，而链上看起来却只是一个单签名的普通交易。

And as I understand it, this is a major part of exactly how you can have all of this complexity and a lot of script behind a transaction that actually just looks like a single sig spend, a single signatures, transaction on chain.

但通过揭示底层脚本条件，在非合作情况下，实际上可以采取完全不同的脚本或路径来解锁并花费这些币。

But by revealing the underlying script conditions, some other completely in a non cooperative case, some other completely different script or path can actually be taken to unlock and spend those coins.

但基本上，通过这些不同功能的组合，Arcade能够创建一种本质上具有状态转换功能的'账户'系统。

But, basically, with a handful of these different things is the is arcade is able to create essentially a stateful, a a state transition style, quote, unquote, account.

因此它支持需要持久状态的功能实现，比如去中心化交易所、支付通道等。

And so it enables things that need a persistent state to be implemented, like a decentralized exchange, payment channels.

我记不清他们提到的其他例子了。

I can't remember the other examples they had.

比如借贷系统之类的功能。

Like, a lending a lending system, that sort of thing.

本质上说，就是在比特币系统之上构建的金融体系。

Essentially, in in essence, basically, a a finance system on top of the Bitcoin, the general Bitcoin system.

不过闪电网络本质上就是这种实现。

But, like, Lightning is essentially that.

所以这实际上并不像看起来那么复杂或不同。

So so this isn't actually as complex or different as it may seem.

这本质上只是闪电网络功能的一个非常有趣的具体实现。

This is just a much really interesting instantiation of essentially what Lightning does.

闪电网络解决的问题是：如何在比特币的UTXO模型及其提交-赎回结构上创建状态机，通过惩罚机制和当前状态更新（包括原像等要素）来实现。

Lightning is a how do we create a state machine on top of Bitcoin's UTXO model and its commit and redeem sort of structure by having the punishment and current state, like updating the current state and having the preimage and everything.

具体来说，就是如何让闪电通道实质上拥有两个不同账户（每个用户各一个），并能在不涉及链上操作的情况下持续更新状态。

Like, how do you how do you create it so that this lightning channel essentially has two different accounts that each, quote, unquote, user has, and they continue to update on an ongoing basis without actually going to chain.

据我理解（如果有人要纠正或我有理解错误的地方请指出），ArcadeScript及其使用的连接器（我们之前讨论过）基本上在功能上模拟了契约（covenant）的作用。

So as I understand it, unless somebody wants to correct me or I'm I'm getting some piece of it wrong, is that, basically, ArcadeScript and the way that they use something we've covered in the past, something called a connector, which essentially mimics what a covenant does in a sense.

由于采用VTXO模型，他们能离线更新UTXO，并通过所谓的'中央协调者'（ARC运营商）获得类似中心化运营商的某些优势（如提供更深层次的协调服务），但用户始终不会丧失对代币的控制权。

And then because they have the VTXO model, that they're able to update UTXOs offline, and they have the, quote, unquote, central coordinator, the operator of the ARC, you kind of get the benefit some of the benefits of a centralized operator and how they can actually provide some other type of facilitation, a a deeper level of facilitation, but you're never actually giving up control of the coins.

你永远拥有无需他人许可即可赎回这些代币的绝对保障能力。

You always have the ability to essentially stamp your guaranteed ability to capacity to redeem those coins without anybody else's permission.

这实际上相当于创建了一个非托管的银行系统。

So it's literally like being able to create a bank without custody.

这就是为什么我真心认为这种扩展方式会真正奏效，因为它实现了两全其美。

And this is why I genuinely think this is the type of scaling that is actually going to work because it gets the best of both worlds.

它既获得了中心化的优势，又保留了去中心化的优点。

It gets the benefit of centralization with the benefits of decentralization.

根据我对互联网的研究和货币体系历史的挖掘，总会存在一种更去中心化、更根本独立或自主的实现方式，但总要付出代价。

And for everything that I've learned about the Internet and dug into history and monetary systems, there was always a quote, unquote, more decentralized or more fundamentally, you know, independent way or sovereign way to implement something, but it always came with trade offs.

每个时代似乎最终都会围绕这样一种理念或结构达成共识——它足以解决上一个时代的主要问题和根本缺陷。

And every era always seemed to coalesce around the idea that or or the structure that gave enough to solve the major problems, the fundamental errors of the of the last era.

但最终选择的总是那个'勉强够用'的方案，而非'完美无缺'的方案，因为后者几乎不存在，或者只能解决特定问题却在其他方面代价过高，导致实际应用时极不方便。

But it always seems to land on what's the one that does this job well enough rather than the one that does this job perfectly because the one that does it perfectly almost never really exists, or it actually only solves one specific problem and has such a huge trade off in some other area that it just becomes so inconvenient as to be impractical for the so for the thing that it needs to solve.

事实上比特币本身就是个有趣的例子——它并没有真正解决拜占庭将军问题。

In fact, Bitcoin itself is kind of an interesting example of this because Bitcoin doesn't really solve the Byzantine general's problem.

实践中它解决了，但理论上没有，因为它只是通过调整经济激励来防止拜占庭将军问题的滥用。

It does in practice, but it doesn't in theory because all it does is align economic incentives to prevent abuse of the Byzantine general's problem.

它使得合作的阻力低于作弊的阻力。

It it makes the it makes the friction of being cooperative lower than the friction of cheating.

在一个系统中作弊的原因在于，相比遵守规则或合作，通过作弊更容易赢得游戏。

And the reason one cheats in a system is because it's easier to win the game by cheating than it is to cooperate or play within the rules.

作弊的唯一好处就是无需付出努力就能获得奖励，无需真正参与竞争或赢得游戏。

The only benefit of cheating is that you get the reward without the work, without actually having to compete or, succeed at the game.

如果作弊比按规则玩游戏更难，那作弊就更加愚蠢了。。

If cheating is more work than actually beating the game inside the rules, then it's it's even dumber to cheat.

比如，如果你能通过三十分钟的学习在考试中取得满分，没有人会花八小时去开发作弊工具。

Like, if you could pass a test with a 100, if you could just make a 100 on the test and get every single answer right with thirty minutes of studying, no one would ever spend eight hours developing or creating some structure to cheat on that test.

这个工具仅适用于这次考试。

It still only worked for that one test.

当你可以直接学习答案时，这个工具就不适用于其他任何情况。

It's not applicable to any other situation when they could just learn the answers.

而比特币正是利用了这种不对称性，以一种足够好的方式。

And Bitcoin takes advantage advantage of this asymmetry asymmetry in a good enough sort of fashion.

改变历史简直难到难以置信。

It's just so unbelievably hard to change the history.

而且由于篡改历史记录会随着时间的推移变得越来越困难，所以根本没人这么做。

And because it gets harder over time to change the history, it simply isn't done.

但它并不需要完美地解决问题。

But it doesn't have to perfectly solve the problem.

它不需要以一种普遍完整的方式解决问题，不需要做到真正绝对不可逆转的程度。

It doesn't have to solve the problem in a universally complete fashion, in a way that, like, genuinely, there is no absolutely impossible to reverse.

它不需要做到那样，因为那很可能根本不可能实现。

It doesn't have to do that, because that likely isn't possible anyway.

但它能够通过累积效应实现不可逆性，使得逆转交易变得如此不切实际，以至于足以让人信任到愿意参与金融活动、愿意持有比特币、愿意使用这个系统进行结算——最重要的是，这种方式比其他所有替代方案都更优越。

But it is able to achieve irreversibility in a way that's cumulative and makes it so impractical to attempt to reverse the transaction that it's simply trustworthy enough to engage in financial activity, to want to own Bitcoin, to want to use this system for settlement, and importantly, in a way that's better than every other alternative.

我认为这正是我们在研究闪电网络、Arc、eCache等项目时所关注的：我们试图找出实现某些结果子集或解决某些核心问题的最佳方式，这种方式要足够好，能适用于所有人，并且比现有系统有质的飞跃，让社会结构和韧性实现十倍进步，而不必等待某种可能永远无法实现的完美解决方案。

And I think this is exactly what we're kind of looking at with things like Lightning, with things like Arc, with eCache, is we're trying to figure out, okay, what is the absolute best way to achieve some subset of results or to solve some core problem that is good enough that it can work for essentially everybody and be so much comparably better than the alternatives, than the systems that we have today, that there's a 10 x leap forward in the structure and the resiliency of society without having to wait for some utterly perfect, likely impossible solution to arise.

如果你把以ARC和闪电网络作为全球支付系统主要概念或基础设施的世界进行比较。

And if you compare a world that has ARC and Lightning Network as the the main concept or the main infrastructure in the world for payment systems.

比特币将成为主要的货币体系。

You have Bitcoin as the main monetary system.

在这个体系中，Arc和eCash作为主要的用户界面架构、服务提供商、金融机构及银行实体，当全世界都接入这个系统时，我认为你获得的不是10倍的改进。

You have Arc and eCash as the major user facing structures and and service providers and financial entities and banking entities, and you put everyone in the world into this system, I would argue you don't have something that's 10 times better.

你获得的是100倍的提升。

You have something that's a 100 times better.

在许多场景下，这种进步几乎是无法比拟的。

Like, there that almost is incomparably better in many contexts.

过去的情况并非仅仅是——比如你能获得某项服务2%的自主权，而现在能获得50%自主权这类量变。

Something where before, it wasn't simply a, oh, you could get, you know, 2% of this service or 2% of this degree of sovereignty, and now you get 50 of this sovereignty or something like that.

这甚至不是一个能进行合理比较的情形。

It's not even it's not even a situation where there's a good comparison.

我们讨论的是：如今可能实现的许多事情，在过去根本就是天方夜谭。

We're talking about where so much of what would now be possible was literally impossible before.

就像当时的世界根本不存在这种可能性——他们完全束手无策。

Like, just wasn't a world, there was nothing they could do.

过去甚至不存在一个能让你实现这种程度自主权、控制力、去中心化、对抗强权、抵制资本操控、逃避审查或监视的生存空间。

There wasn't even a place that they could be in which you could achieve the degree of sovereignty or the control or the decentralization or the pushback against power or the control against capital or censorship or surveillance.

在那个世界里，实现这些目标的能力根本不可能存在。

It just there was no world in which the capacity to achieve those things could ever even exist.

请记住，这一切都建立在比特币仍使用1MB区块大小的基础上。

And keep in mind, this is all on a Bitcoin that still has one megabyte blocks.

我认为这个模式适用于全世界。

And I think this model works for the whole world.

这意味着链上会出现所谓的'天气变化'。

It does mean there will be, quote, unquote, weather on the chain.

将会出现需求极高的时期。

There will be there will be periods of extremely high demand.

也会有需求低迷的阶段。

There will be periods of low demand still.

既有相对灾难性的时刻，也会出现如洪水般汹涌的时期。

There will be relative disasters and times in which there is such a flood.

就像前几天推特宕机的情况一样。

Just I mean, just like the other day, Twitter went down.

谷歌宕机了。

Google went down.

这些主要服务遭遇了DDoS攻击，或者CloudFare也宕机了。

You have these major services that got DDoSed and or CloudFare went down.

为什么？

Why?

因为有时会出现大量活动、遭受攻击、系统压力过大或流量激增的情况。

Because there are times when there is a lot going on or where there are attacks or where there are strains or there is insanely high volume.

所有服务提供商和基础设施提供商都必须进行调整，进行修复并做出改变。

And all of the service providers and the infrastructure providers have to make adjustments, and they have to repair, and they have to change things.

这正是我们将在闪电网络中看到的情况。

This is exactly what we'll see with Lightning.

这正是我们将在比特币中看到的情况。

This is exactly what we'll see with Bitcoin.

这正是我们将在Arc中看到的情况。

This is exactly what we'll see with Arc.

你可能会遇到Arc的重大实施问题或漏洞，届时将出现大规模调整，甚至可能需要在从旧批处理系统转向新批处理系统时引入信任机制。

You'll have a major Arc implement or encounter a bug, and there will be massive amounts of shifting, or there might have to be trust involved in the the shift from one set of batching to a new set of batching.

或者所有人都会惊慌失措，密钥丢失，最终所有人都不得不把交易提交到主链处理，导致出现极其可怕的、难以承受的负载压力。

Or literally everyone will freak out, and the keys will be lost, and everyone will have to actually take it to the chain, and there will be horror horrible, horrible, load.

这就像比特币遭遇DDoS攻击时的情况——我们要试图清理上百万笔积压交易。

It will be like be Bitcoin is under DDoS as we try to clear through a million transactions.

当这种情况发生时，人们会暂停交易。

And when that happens, people will not make transactions.

他们会选择观望，抱怨手续费高得离谱。

They will they will hold back, and they will say, fees are way too high.

我决定暂时先等一等再说。

I'm actually gonna wait on this for a little bit.

要知道，这就是市场价格的形成机制——可能需要两三天才能消化完积压交易。

You know, because that's how prices work in a market, and it'll take two or three days to clear the backlog.

但我认为，我们现有的模型体系、已搭建好的架构、已经设计完成甚至部署上链随时可用的方案，实际上已经为全球级系统提供了初步的扩展框架。

But I think the set of models that we have today, the the structures that we have already put in place and the designs that have already been built and now even implemented, that are on chain and ready to be used, actually give us a rough scale to a global system.

而且一切还会变得越来越好。

And it's all gonna keep getting better.

一切都会持续改进。

It's all going to keep improving.

所以再给我解释一下，为什么我需要其他那些几乎毫无信任可言、全靠一堆愚蠢炒作围绕某些软件、小工具、NFT或DeFi的垃圾权益证明加密货币？

And so explain to me again why I need some other shitty proof of stake crypto that has almost no trust and whose entire selling point is a bunch of stupid hype around some piece of software or some widget or NFT or DeFi.

再解释一下，为什么全球经济要尝试使用两三种不同的货币？即便在法定货币体系下，你被迫信任、完全受制于货币所有者，但大家基本上还是只用一种主导货币，这种低效程度简直可怕？

Explain to me why, again, this global economy is going to try to use two or three different monies when this is so horrifically inefficient that even under a fiat system where you're forced to trust, where you're literally at the behest of the monetary owner, everybody still basically uses one dominant currency?

这种权衡的代价简直大得不能再大了。

Like, the trade offs of that could not be greater.

这种权衡的代价是巨大的。

The trade offs of that are massive.

你基本上是在屈服于主导货币力量，然而每个国家、几乎整个星球仍然这么做，因为围绕单一货币标准凝聚的力量强大得难以置信。

You're basically subjugating yourself to the dominant monetary power, and yet every country, most of the entire planet, still does this because of the unbelievably strong forces to coalesce around a single monetary standard.

这和我们都使用同一套计时系统的原因完全相同。

The exact same reason we use the same clock.

比特币有什么做不到的？

And what can Bitcoin not do?

比特币有哪些无法实现的功能？

What can Bitcoin not do?

我认为我们最终都会采用比特币标准，原因完全相同。

I think we're all gonna end up on a Bitcoin standard for the exact same reason.

无论你身处世界何处，无论你在哪个国家，哪个司法管辖区，哪座山脉的哪一侧，都不重要——如果你在听这个播客，我的十秒和你的十秒就是完全相同的。

Why no matter where you are in the world, no matter what country you're in, no matter what jurisdiction, the side of any mountain range, doesn't matter, if you listen to this podcast, that my ten seconds and your ten seconds are exactly the same.

事实上，如果我们的时间计量不同步，互联网上的设备就无法正常通信。

In fact, no device on the Internet can speak to another one on the Internet properly without our seconds being the same.

我认为货币体系也将遵循同样的规律。

I think the same thing is gonna be true of money.

我认为货币协议也将如此，我们终将都使用比特币，我看不出有什么理由不基于比特币构建这套体系。

I think the same thing is gonna be true of monetary protocols, and I think we're all gonna be on Bitcoin, and I don't see how we don't make this doesn't get built on Bitcoin.

老实说，我看不到其他可能性。

Like, I don't see what the alternative is.

试想一下未来可能实现的场景，互联网网络将变得多么广阔且互联互通，货币将如何渗透到我们生活的方方面面，数十亿人如何从无银行账户状态过渡到银行服务——当然，即便我对这种表述有所保留，但他们确实将从零数字金融状态转向某种形式的数字金融。

Like, think about think about where what will be in what will be possible in the future, how broad and interconnected the network the Internet itself will be, and how money will be tied to everything that we do, and how billions of people will go from unbanked to banked, if, of course, we even I even like that framing, but they will they will go from no digital finance to a form of digital finance.

否则这一切要如何实现？

How are how is that gonna happen otherwise?

难道真能毫无摩擦地实现吗？难道不会通过中心化平台和法币环境摧毁自由社会的根基，而我们却仍固守美元体系？

Is it really gonna happen without friction and without the destruction of literally everything about free society through centralized platforms and a fiat environment, and we're all just gonna stay on the dollar?

说真的，真有人觉得事情会这样发展吗？

I mean, does anybody really think that that's how it's going to happen?

我甚至认为这种结构本身就不可持续。

Like, I don't I don't even think that's structurally sustainable.

不仅是政治层面，结构层面也根本不可持续。

Not only politically, but, like, structurally sustainable.

这就像罗马帝国那样——

It's kinda like one of those things like, you know, the Roman Empire.

当你过度扩张时，终会因不堪重负而崩塌，因为这种规模根本无法持续。

Like, you spread yourself so thin that at some point you collapse under your own weight because it just doesn't scale to that size.

但想想政治困境、文化信任问题，以及在全球政治动荡时期无法维持全球网络——整个西方世界正陷入史无前例的债务危机，其严重程度在人类历史上绝无仅有。

But then think about the political difficulties and the cultural and trust issues and the inability to maintain global networks, at a time when there's insane political turmoil, and we literally have the entire Western world is under an astronomical debt crisis, a debt crisis that is literally incomparable in all of human history for the scope of how big this problem is.

不仅我们手中最优质货币的通货膨胀日益恶化，所有货币都在加速贬值。

And not only is is inflation bad in the best currencies that have available to us, it's getting worse with all of them.

我坚信这是必然的——除非拥有原生的数字货币，否则我们根本无法实现那样的未来。

I simply think it's inevitable is that we don't we simply don't achieve that future until we have a native digital money.

考虑到我们已经拥有这种值得信赖的原生数字货币，它建立了史上最高级别的信任与保障，远超第二名十倍——当讨论真正独立的数字货币能提供什么时，第二名甚至无法相提并论，而非那些花哨的技术复杂性或‘我的玩具更酷’式的噱头。

And considering we have a trusted native digital money, one that has built more trust and and higher assurances than anything in history, anything that could possibly compare to it, and is 10 x the second best, the next best thing, which doesn't it doesn't even compare when we're talking about what actually digital money provides, independent digital money actually provides, rather than some frivolous or technical complexity style or sense in in the, like, I have cooler toys than you sense.

毫不夸张地说，没有任何东西能与之比肩。

Literally, nothing even comes close.

完全无法比拟。

Nothing comes close.

我们甚至可以在这些系统中实现隐私保护。

And we can even have all of these systems with privacy.

事实上，这种隐私比门罗币或Zcash所提供的更完善、更灵活、更具适应性。

In fact, privacy that is better and more versatile, more adaptable than what something like Monero or Zcash offers.

这就是我的想法。

So that's what I think.

快速感谢leaden.io提供的比特币抵押贷款服务，感谢Synonym和PUBKey stack致力于重建去中心化网络的工具——这对本次讨论至关重要，还要感谢Chroma提供的防蓝光眼镜。

Quick shout out to leaden.io for Bitcoin backed loans, to Synonym and the PUBKey stack for for building tools to re decentralize the web, which is so important to this discussion, to Chroma for my blue light blocking glasses.

市面上有许多不同的光健康产品。

The there are many different light health products.

使用折扣码Bitcoin Audible可享9折优惠，还有非常不错的节日折扣。

10% discount with code Bitcoin Audible, plus some really good holiday discounts.

最后要感谢HRF及其《金融自由报告》通讯。

And then lastly, the HRF and their, Financial Freedom Report newsletter.

快去关注他们吧。

Check them out.

立即订阅。

Subscribe.

点击链接。

Go to links.

别忘了折扣码。

Don't forget to discount codes.

好的，都在节目说明里。

All right down in the show notes.

比特币不仅仅将成为互联网的货币。

Bitcoin isn't just going to become the money of the Internet.

比特币已经是互联网的货币，而加密货币整体上不过是个兜售廉价技术把戏的赌场。

Bitcoin is the money of the Internet, and crypto has generally been nothing but a casino to sell cheap technical tricks.

往好了说，它只是个试验场，用来构建最终将在比特币基础上实现的东西。

And at best, it has been a test ground for building things that are just gonna be done on top of Bitcoin.

不过我想时间会证明一切。

But I guess we'll find out.

这里是《比特币之声》。

This is Bitcoin Audible.

我是盖伊·斯旺，各位听众，我们下次再见——这就是我的两聪之见。

I am Guy Swan, and until next time, everybody, that's my two sats.

人们只有在确信新货币完全不受任何政府控制的情况下，才会学会信任它。

People would learn to trust the new money only if they were confident it was completely exempt from any government control.

弗里德里希·哈耶克。

Friedrich Hayek.

特别感谢Noster上的Economista Austriaco提供的这句引文。

Shout out to Economista Austriaco on Noster for that quote.