重启 - 第44期 - 比特币并非你所想的那样

好了，各位。

Alright, guys.

欢迎回到节目。

Welcome back to the show.

抱歉中间有点小间隔。

Sorry for the little bit of a gap here.

我还在适应作为两个孩子的父亲这个过程。

I am still working through the process of being a parent to two children.

我们过得还不错。

We're doing pretty good.

我是说，必须承认我们勉强维持住了局面。

I mean, I gotta say we're we're holding the fort down.

小女儿表现很棒，但要在我全职照顾拉德的同时挤出工作时间确实很困难。

Baby girl is doing fantastic, but trying to get time to work when I'm basically having to full time look after Rad is has been difficult.

至少录音工作是这样。

Or at least working on recording.

我还是设法完成了其他事情，但仅限于拉德可以陪着我一起做的那些。

I have managed to do other things, but only things that Rad can basically be hanging out and doing with me.

这种情况会改变，但在此期间，我其实要重启——这事我想做很久了。

This will change, but in the meantime, I'm actually bringing back and I had been meaning to do this for a while.

我和一些人讨论过这事，他们也建议我这么做。

I have had conversations with people on doing this, and people have recommended me do it do this.

但我觉得重播一些旧节目挺好的，可以重温我们讨论过但被淹没在节目库深处的观点——很多新听众可能根本没听过那期，或只是通过我偶尔提到的相关话题有个模糊印象。

But I felt it was good to bring back some old episodes and refresh some ideas that we've covered, but have been kind of so deep in the the catalog here that it's easy to forget that a lot of new people who have come in may have never even heard that episode or have only kind of gotten the idea in a rough sense or in some little tangent that I just go down and read this a little bit related to it.

首先，我想从一个广受好评的主题开始，这也是我个人非常喜欢并认为对很多人都有启发的一期节目——‘老家伙们的见解’。

And to kick that off, I wanted to hit one that I have had a lot of great feedback on, and one that I also personally liked and thought I think is a good framing for a lot of people, which is an old guys take episode.

这是‘见解’系列的第44期。

This is guys take 44.

比特币并非你想象的那样。

Bitcoin is not what you think it is.

如果你还没听过这期内容，相信你会收获惊喜。

So if you haven't heard this one, I think you're in for a treat.

另外，如果你还没购买Blockstream Jade Plus硬件钱包，使用代码‘guy’可享9折优惠。

And also, if you have not gotten your Blockstream jade plus hardware wallet, you can get 10% off with code guy.

相关链接和详情都在节目说明里。

The link and details are right down in the show notes.

把你的密钥从移动设备转移到更安全的硬件钱包吧——关键它还能轻松配合手机使用。

Get your keys off of your mobile device and in a secure hardware wallet that importantly is really easy to use with your phone.

如果你在找一款真正优秀的自托管移动钱包，内置闪电网络功能的BitKit钱包值得考虑。

And if you are looking for a really great mobile wallet that is self custodial and has lightning built in, the BitKit wallet.

就是Synonym公司出品的b-i-t-k-i-t钱包。

That's b I t k I t wallet by Synonym.

其实我正在一个抽奖帖子里做活动，要给三位幸运儿各送5万（单位待确认）。

And in actually one of the threads where I'm doing a giveaway thread for 50,000 to three different people.

这个活动还剩最后一天，快去看看吧。

And actually, you have one day left on that, so check it out.

有位用户留言说刚下载试用，发现这是目前最好用、最人性化的钱包之一。

But one of the users said they just downloaded it, and it's one of the best and most user friendly wallets out there.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我同意。

And I agree.

只是确实没有任何混淆。

It's just it really there's no confusion.

钱包里没有混淆，而且我很喜欢储蓄与消费这个直观的概念，这正是链上与闪电网络之间的分界线。

There's no confusion in the wallet, and I like how intuitive the idea of savings versus spending is, which is the delineation between on chain and Lightning.

如果你还没查看过，一定要去看看。

If you haven't checked it out yet, definitely do so.

链接和详情见节目备注。

Links and details down in the show notes.

好的。

Alright.

那么，让我们开始今天的节目，重启《Guy的观点44》，比特币并非你想的那样。

With that, let's get into today's episode, reboot of Guy's Take 44, Bitcoin is not what you think it is.

比特币领域的最佳内容由Audible呈现。

The best in Bitcoin made Audible.

我是Guy Swan，这里是《比特币可听》。

I am Guy Swan, and this is Bitcoin Audible.

大家好，最近怎么样？

What is up, everybody?

欢迎回到节目。

Welcome back to the show.

这里是比特币有声频道，在这里你可以免费获得关于比特币经济学、技术、历史、哲学等全方位的博士学位。

This is Bitcoin Audible, where you receive your PhD in the economics, technology, history, philosophy, and everything else about Bitcoin, all for the low, low price of free.

我是盖伊·斯旺，一个比你认识的任何人都更了解比特币的人。

I am Guy Swan, the guy who has read more about Bitcoin than anybody else you know.

由于我们最近新增了大量听众，这期节目可能会在金融播客周播出。

Now since we have had a ton of new listeners, and this will probably be the episode I'm going to air on the finance podcast week.

我们节目迎来了许多新听众，比特币生态系统中似乎持续涌现出许多新鲜血液。

So and we've had a lot of new listeners to the show and continually seem to have a lot of fresh ears around the Bitcoin ecosystem in general.

因此我想借此机会回归基础，简要概述比特币究竟是什么——虽然不确定是否在数百篇文章之外直接讨论过这个话题。

So I wanted to take a guy's take, take an episode here to go back to the basics for a minute and kinda cover some of the broad strokes of what Bitcoin even is, which I'm not a 100% sure if I've really directly done this outside of the context of some of the many hundreds and hundreds of articles we've covered.

本期内容将解析比特币的本质，因为它并非你想象的那样。

So this guy's take is going to break down what Bitcoin is because it's not what you think.

如果比特币不是你想象的那样，那它究竟是什么？

So what is Bitcoin if it's not what you think it is?

比特币就是货币。

Bitcoin is money.

什么？

What?

我知道。

I know.

很震惊吧。

Shocker.

通常这一点被严重误解了。

Usually, this is profoundly misunderstood.

这种情况几乎无一例外会立即招致批评，比如人们会说货币本质上是交换媒介和记账单位。

This is almost invariably, is met immediately with a criticism that goes something like, well, but money is a medium of exchange and unit of account.

比特币从未被用作交换媒介——这种说法其实并不正确，但大多数人要么不了解，要么选择忽视。

Bitcoin is never used as a medium of exchange, which isn't actually true, but typically it's not known by most people or just ignored.

当然，它的波动性太大，无法作为记账单位。

Of course, it's way too volatile to be a unit of account.

市场规模太小，根本没人用比特币定价，所以它作为货币很糟糕，因此永远不可能成功。

Its market is so small that nobody prices things in Bitcoin anyway, so it's a terrible money, and therefore it can never work.

或许，这种货币概念在很大程度上是自我指涉的。

Now, this is a concept of money that's largely self referential, maybe.

更准确的说法可能是：它只能在事后验证中成立。

A better way of saying it may be that it only works in hindsight.

对吧？

Right?

它完全不具备分析或预测能力。

It has zero analytical or predictive power to it.

它只能解释已经成为主流货币的现象，但无法告诉我们货币在成为主流之前的状态。

It only works to explain something that is already the dominant money, but it doesn't tell us anything about money prior to it becoming one.

所有货币都是逐渐形成的。

All monies emerge.

它们最初只是市场上的普通商品，后来才演变为货币。

They start out as just a good in the market, and then they become a money.

事实上，大多数货币都经历了数百年的发展过程。

In fact, most monies developed over centuries.

将货币定义为记账单位和交换媒介，这一定义并未揭示货币历史的任何信息。

That definition of money, that it's the unit of count and medium exchange, tells us nothing about monetary history.

实际上，我们阅读了艾伦·法林顿的精彩文章《维特根斯坦的货币》，其中提到的witt（维特）实指Ginsteins（金斯坦）。

And in fact, we, read Alan Farrington's amazing piece, Wittgenstein's Money, which is actually w I t t, Ginsteins.

维特根斯坦在《货币》中讨论这一概念时，将其称为货币的语义定义。

Wittgenstein's Money talking about this very concept, he refers to it as the semantic definition of money.

或许可以用一个类比来解释：说货币仅仅是记账单位和交换媒介，就像说足球比赛是由获胜队伍踢得最好一样。

And maybe as an analogy to explain what I mean here is that saying money is merely a unit of account and a medium of exchange is like saying the game of football is best played by the team who won it.

但这并未告诉我们关于比赛的任何实质内容。

But it doesn't tell us anything about the game.

它没有说明任何策略或原因来解释为何某支球队更优秀，更没有揭示足球运作的深层机制。

It doesn't tell us anything about what, you know, strategies or reasons why one team would be better than another, and it tells us nothing interesting about how football even works.

它只告诉了我们结果。

All it tells us is the result.

而真正有趣的问题在于：比赛是如何进行的？

When the really interesting question is how is the game played?

是什么特质使一支球队优于另一支？

What are the attributes that make one team better than another?

哪些策略能确保必然胜利？其原理又是什么？

What are the strategies that would make one the inevitable winner and why?

这才是关于货币的有趣定义。

That's the interesting definition of money.

那种仅将货币定义为交换媒介和记账单位的说法，永远只能告诉我们货币成为货币之后的状态。

The definition that says, oh, it's a medium of exchange and unit of account, will only tell ever tell us what a money is after it becomes money.

再次，我要链接艾伦·法林顿关于维特根斯坦货币的文章，它对这一概念进行了更深入的剖析，非常值得推荐。

Again, I'll just link to Alan Farrington's piece on Vittgenstein's money, which does a fantastic job of breaking down this concept a little bit deeper, and highly recommend.

当然，这里是比特币领域的Audible（有声读物平台）。

And, of course, it's Audible here on Bitcoin Audible.

但想想为什么这个定义有点无用。

But think about why this is kind of a useless definition.

对吧？

Right?

它没有提供任何方法来评判两种相互竞争的货币。

It doesn't give us any way to judge two competing monies against each other.

它预设货币甚至不能改变，完全没有成长或涌现的阶段。

It presupposes that money can't even change, that there's no growth or emergence period in it at all.

它就是货币。

It just is a money.

因为无论什么作为交换媒介和记账单位，那就是货币。

Because whatever is the medium of exchange and unit of account, that's the money.

因此，只有已经成功作为货币的东西才能成为货币。

So therefore, only something that has already succeeded as money can be money.

所以它没有给我们任何有用的信息。

So it just doesn't give us anything.

它无法解释为什么某物在尚未成为交换媒介或记账单位时就开始具备这些属性。

It can't explain why something becomes a medium of exchange or unit of account while it's still not one.

它无法告诉我们为什么一种货币比另一种更有效。

It can't tell us why one thing would work better than another.

它无法解释为什么一种货币在主导数百年后会失败。

It couldn't explain why one would fail after centuries of being the dominant money.

这也暗示着数千年来丰富多变且充满冲突的货币历史甚至不可能发生。

And it suggests that the entirety of the rich, and incredibly changing and clashing monetary history for thousands of years couldn't even happen.

因为唯一能被称为货币的东西，就是已经成为货币的东西。

Because the only thing that can be called money is the thing that already became money.

因此出于我们的目的，我们将放弃这个定义，因为它对我们没有帮助。

So for our purposes, we are dropping that definition because it doesn't help us.

类似的逻辑是：我们只有在全世界都采用互联网后，才能说互联网有价值或将会发挥作用。

An analogous context there is that we would only be able to say the Internet was valuable or going to be useful after the entire world adopted the Internet.

然而，当互联网诞生初期只有两个人使用时，这种逻辑会暗示互联网永远不会有任何价值，也永远无法成为通讯工具——因为只有两个人在使用它。

Yet, when there are only two people on the Internet at its birth, it would suggest that the Internet could never be worth anything, and it was never going to work as a communication tool because only two people are using it.

那么当互联网还只有两个用户时，我们能观察到哪些特征？

So what are the attributes that we would be able to see while the Internet was still just two people?

这就能解释为什么互联网是一项革命性技术。

That would explain why the Internet was a revolutionary technology.

尽管AT&T电话网络在全球可能有数十亿用户，但即便在互联网只有两个用户时，就明显看出互联网将使其过时。

And even though the AT and T phone network had billions potentially of users all around the world, it was clear even when there were only two people, that the Internet was going to make it obsolete.

这正是我们需要对比特币采用的思考框架。

That is the framework that we need for Bitcoin.

我们需要从根本上理解货币的本质，才能明白为什么它远优于当今所有货币形式。

We need to understand what money is at that level so that we can understand why it's so much superior to all of the monies today.

这就是我将要论证的观点。

And that's the argument I will make.

遗憾的是，我认为这不是一集节目就能轻易涵盖的内容，但我会尽力而为。

Unfortunately, this is not something that I think can be easily covered in one episode, but I'm going to do my best.

我认为最重要的起点和最关键的理解是，货币是在市场中产生的。

And I think the most important place to start and the most important thing to understand is that money arises in a market.

它是自然形成的。

It emerges naturally.

历史上政府强制规定货币的情况屈指可数，且大多是为了控制或征用已经自然形成的其他货币形式。

There are only a handful of times in which governments have dictated a monetary good, and this has largely been in the effort to control or co opt a different monetary good that had already emerged.

最关键的是要明白货币是自然形成的、基础性的，但它作为最具流通性的商品在市场中产生。

This is the most important thing to understand is that money is natural, natural and foundational, but it arises in a market as the most marketable good.

历史上它始终是市场参与者最广泛需求的物品。

It has historically been the thing that was most widely desired by market participants.

只要它具备其他几个强化属性的特质，使其在货币语境、贸易语境和长期价值储存中发挥作用，那么作为最受欢迎商品这一事实本身就使其更具吸引力。

And as long as it has a handful of other attributes that reinforce this and make it useful in the context of money, in the context of trade and storing value over time, then the fact that it is the most desired good makes it more desirable in its own right.

于是它形成了循环价值：因其稀缺性而具备关键货币属性，又因可交易性而更具价值。

So it becomes a circular value that because it's desirable and it has a set of very critical monetary attributes that are terribly, terribly difficult to come by, that it then becomes more valuable because it can be traded with others.

因为你持有它时就能确信他人会接受它作为交易媒介。

Because you can own it, you can you can accept it in trade simply because you know someone else will want it.

这就是价值理论中所谓的货币溢价。

This is what's referred to in the context of value as a monetary premium.

这种价值与其实际用途完全无关。

It is the value that has nothing to do at all with it actually being used.

比如牛曾经作为货币和通货被使用过。

So, cattle was money, has been used for money and currency before.

房地产曾被用于交易。

Real estate has been used for trade.

土地曾被使用。

Land has been used.

但超出食用牲畜或居住土地需求之外的价值，或是能铸剑的金属、能制造电子设备的材料等等，所有这些非使用价值、非消费价值的价值，就成为了货币价值，即货币溢价。

But the value that it accrues above and beyond wanting to eat the cattle or live on the land, or, the metal that could make swords, or that could build electronic devices, or whatever it is, all the value that is not the use value, the consumption value of that good, is that becomes the monetary value, the monetary premium.

这仅仅是因为其他人希望持有它，以便能储存并随时间转移其价值，而非用于消费目的。

And this is simply because people other people will want to hold it and have it so that they can store and trade nearly the value that it has across time, rather than, use it for its consumption purpose.

回顾历史会发现这其实非常有趣，因为历史上最著名的货币商品之一就是盐。

And this is actually really kind of interesting when you look back through history, because one of the most prominent historical monetary goods was salt.

在储存和交易价值的语境下，盐不仅是一种调味品。

And in the context of storing and trading value, salt wasn't just a spice.

它实际上是我们所拥有过最有效的食物保存工具之一。

It was actually one of the most potent tools for preserving food as we've ever had.

时至今日依然如此。

And that's still that's still to this day.

要知道，我们费尽心思研发了大量人工或化学防腐剂，但很少有像古老的盐这样好用的。

You know, we've worked really hard to make tons of other artificial or chemical preservatives, but few do the job like good old salt.

因此这种被广泛用于保存食物的工具，同时也成为了价值储存手段，因为它在市场上备受青睐。

So the very tool that was so widely used to store food became a store of value as well, because it was so desirable in the market.

实际上盐是最古老的货币之一。

And salt is one of the oldest monies, actually.

它的使用甚至早于有文字记载的历史。

It predates recorded history.

我们其实完全不知道它最初是何时被用于这个目的的。

We actually have no clue when it was really first used for this purpose.

在圣经、最早的宗教典籍以及所有重要文明中都能找到相关记载，可以追溯到大约八千年前，当时盐首次被用作货币，被视为极其珍贵和贵重的商品。

It's all throughout the Bible and the earliest texts, religious texts, and any significant civilization to upwards of, like, eight thousand years ago when salt was first being used as a currency and was being held as this incredibly valuable and precious good.

有趣的故事。

Cool stories.

在座可能有人知道，其实英文单词'salary'（薪水）就来源于此。

Some of you might know this, but this is actually where the word salary comes from.

对吧？

Right?

这个词源自古希腊语，字面意思是指支付给罗马士兵的食盐配给，当时被认为是最珍贵的报酬形式之一。

It's derived from a phrase in ancient Greece that literally referred to the salt rations that were paid to Roman soldiers, which was considered one of the most precious things that you could be paid in.

这种影响贯穿始终。

And it's prominent all throughout.

就像我说的，圣经中随处可见，许多宗教典籍、不同文化文明的历史中都有记载，比如成语'世上的盐'，还有'某人不值他的盐'这样的说法。

It's you you like I said, it's throughout the Bible, many, many religions, the history of very disparate and unrelated cultures and civilizations, phrases, the salt of the earth, that guy's not worth his salt.

尽管今天我们只把它当作餐桌上小盐瓶里的调味品，但它在我们社会和语言中的根基依然非常深厚。

Even though we think of it today as the stuff in the, you know, little shaker that sits on the dining table, its roots are very deep still in our society and language.

那么当某物发展出货币溢价，成为通货和货币后，它扮演着什么角色呢？

So after something develops a monetary premium, after it becomes a currency and a money, what role does it serve?

因为通过这种回溯，实际上能帮助我们解释或理解为什么某种东西比其他东西更适合作为货币。

Because looking backward in that way can actually help us explain or make sense of why one thing would work better as money than something else.

同时也说明了为什么——具体到这个例子——盐曾经是一种非常理想的货币。

And also why, specifically in this example, salt would have been a really good currency.

当货币开始被用于储存和交易价值时，它就成为一种集体核算工具。

When a money begins to be used to store and trade value, it becomes a collective accounting tool.

这是一种核算价值生产、交易、损失、利润的方式，所有这些都是由各自独立核算的人们完成的，他们能够从社会中获取信息，了解自己真正应该关注的生产、任务或目标。

It's a way to account for value production, trade, loss, profit, all of these things across people that are not doing their accounting together, but doing it individually while able to take in information from the rest of society about what production or task or goal they should actually be focused on.

那些最昂贵、货币成本最高的事物，正是最令人向往却又最难获得的。

Those things that are most expensive, those things that carry the largest monetary cost are those things that are most desirable and least achievable.

而那些成本极低或几乎无需代价的事物，则极易获取或极为丰富，因此我们不需要更多人在这些事情上浪费时间。

And those things that carry incredibly low or almost no cost are the things that are incredibly easy to come by and or wildly abundant, so we don't need more people wasting time on those things.

作为一种核算工具，盐非常理想，因为它价值密度高，可以被分割成最微小的部分，之后又能毫无损失地重新组合成更大的整体。

And as an accounting tool, salt works great because it's very value dense, and it can be broken up into the tiniest of parts that can be recombined without any loss as to what the thing itself is back into a greater whole later.

这也是为什么金属货币如此成功，并最终在历史上取代盐成为主导货币商品的原因。

This is the same reason why monetary metals were so successful and eventually ended up eclipsing salt as the dominant monetary good throughout history.

但一粒盐确实很小，而一磅盐就是一磅盐。

But one grain of salt is really small, and one pound of salt is a pound of salt.

对吧？

Right?

比如，我可以有一磅盐，你也可以有一磅盐，我的这磅和你的那磅其实没什么区别。

Like, I could have a pound of salt and you could have a pound of salt, and it's not really much difference between my pound and your pound.

而一磅鸡肉不等于另一磅鸡肉。

Whereas a pound of chicken is not another pound of chicken.

你可能拥有一只新鲜健康的鸡。

You could have a fresh and healthy chicken.

我可能得到的是只腐烂病弱、骨瘦如柴的可怜鸡，你知道的，被揍过的车也不等于另一辆车。

I could have a rotten and sickly and pathetic chicken that didn't have any fat on it and was, you know, beaten and car isn't equal to another car.

也许我开的是一辆跑了20万英里的破铜烂铁，而你开的可能是崭新的法拉利。

Maybe I've got an old battered piece of shit with 200,000 miles on it, and yours might be a brand new Ferrari.

但归根结底，从某种粗糙的角度来说，盐就是盐。

But, when it comes down to it, in kind of a rough sense, salt is salt.

而从更完美的角度来说，黄金就是黄金。

And, in a much more perfect sense, gold is gold.

没错，无论你的一磅、一盎司或一克黄金存放在哪里都无关紧要。

Yeah, it doesn't matter where your pound or ounce or gram of gold is anywhere.

你可以将它熔化，它依然是纯金。

You can melt it down and it's pure gold regardless.

这被称为可替代性。

This is referred to as fungibility.

它的每个单位都与其他单位完全相同。

Every unit of it is the same as any other unit.

从可分性角度来看，它可以被分解成微小部分然后重新组合。

And in a divisibility sense, it can be broken down into tiny parts and then recombined.

比如，我的金条是由一千克黄金制成的并不重要。

Like, doesn't matter if my gold bar was created from a thousand grams of gold.

我仍然可以将其熔化制成金条，这与用三大块总重一千克的黄金制成的金条毫无区别。

I can still just melt it down and make it into a gold bar, and it's the same It's no different than a gold bar that was made from three big chunks that equal a kilogram.

它依然是一千克黄金。

It's still a kilogram of gold.

这是可替代性的综合体现。

This is a combination of fungibility.

所有单位都是相同的。

All the units are the same.

每一个都与其他相同，并且具有可分割性。

Each one is the same as any other, and divisibility.

信不信由你，具备这种属性的商品并不多。

And believe it or not, there are not many goods that share this attribute.

对于可市场化商品而言，这是极其困难且罕见的特性。

This is incredibly difficult and rare thing to come across in a marketable good.

我们知道在其他条件相同的情况下，具备这种特征的货币更优越，会胜过任何在这两个特性上表现较差的替代品。

And we know that all other things equal, monies that have this feature are superior and will win out against any alternative that has less viable of those two characteristics.

重申一下，在其他条件相同时，确实存在比可互换性和可分割性更重要的特性——这些特性甚至能超越二者的差异（这也是我们的发现），但让我们暂时先忽略这些因素。

Again, all all things equal, there are other more important characteristics that can actually outweigh a difference in fungibility and divisibility that we've also discovered, but we're gonna ignore ignore them for just a second.

简而言之，当其他条件完全相同时，可互换性和可分割性更强的货币会胜过较弱的货币。

And we'll just say that the more fungible and divisible money beat beats out a less fungible one if they are equal in every other way.

但为什么呢？

But why?

因为这是它作为优秀记账工具的关键部分。

Because this is a critical part of it being a good accounting tool.

如果你预算结束时使用的计量单位与预算开始时不同，家庭预算还有什么意义呢？

If the points in your budget at the end of your budget weren't the same as the points at the beginning of your budget, what would what would be the use of budgeting for your household?

货币是一种集体记账工具，它让社会能够统筹安排该做什么、在哪里做以及何时执行特定任务。

Money is a collective accounting tool that allows society to organize what and where and when we should do certain tasks.

这听起来可能很无聊。

And that might sound boring.

所谓'集体核算'听起来可能不是什么重要的事。

Quote, unquote, collective accounting probably seems like something that's not that important.

但我几乎可以断言它比拇指对生更重要。

But I damn near could argue that it's more important than opposable thumbs.

举个实例：猴子有对生拇指，却没有集体核算的工具。

Case in point, monkeys have opposable thumbs, but they do not have a tool for collective accounting.

因此它们只能形成小群体，无法建立社会。

Thus, they have small groups and no society.

货币是文明存在的根本原因，这不是夸张也不是在鼓吹比特币有多神奇。

Money is why civilization exists, and this is not an exaggeration or some pontification on how awesome Bitcoin is or whatever.

作为人类，我们无法突破邓巴数的限制来扩展人际关系。

As human beings, we cannot scale our relationships past something referred to as Dunbar's number.

这个数字代表普通人能有效维系的同时性人际关系数量上限。

This is the number of simultaneous relationships that the average person can properly account for in their head.

让我们回溯到比如一万年前，每增加一个部落成员时——

So for every additional person let's go back, you know, ten thousand years or something.

群体内部需要处理的人际关系就会呈指数级增长。

Every additional person to a tribe, it adds an an order of magnitude more relationships to the group.

比如说我和鲍勃、南希是朋友。

Like, for instance, I'm a friend with Bob and Nancy.

就是我们三个：我、鲍勃和南希。

It's me, Bob and Nancy.

我们是好伙伴。

We're buddies.

我们有三个人组成的小组。

We have a group of three.

但我不仅需要了解我与鲍勃的关系，以及我与南希的关系。

But I don't just need to know my relationship with Bob and my relationship with Nancy.

我还需要理解鲍勃和南希之间的关系，以便我们和睦相处。

I also need to understand Bob and Nancy's relationship for us to get along.

所以当查德加入部落时，不是增加三种关系，也不是增加一种关系——我和查德。

So when Chad joins the tribe, it doesn't add three relation or it doesn't add one relationship, me and Chad.

而是新增了三种关系：鲍勃和查德、南希和查德、我和查德。

It adds three new relationships, Bob and Chad, Nancy and Chad, me and Chad.

仅仅增加一个人，我们的关系就从三种增长到了六种。

We went from three relationships to six by adding a single person.

所以当部落有100人时，网络中的独立连接数量会变得非常庞大，而且这些关系始终在变化。

So when there are a 100 people in our tribe, the number of separate connections in our network becomes massive, and they are always changing.

比如上周查德和南希还是好朋友，但后来发生了些事，而我并不知情。

You know, maybe Chad and Nancy were good friends last week, but then something happened, and I don't know about it.

现在他们成了死敌。

And now they're mortal enemies.

突然间，群体中所有人的关系都必须调整，以应对这种新的摩擦。

And suddenly, all of the relationships of everybody in the group have to shift and react to this new friction.

因此，若缺乏共同信仰和集体贸易，维持单一 cohesive 群体的能力就会瓦解。

So the ability to have a single cohesive group breaks down without collective beliefs and collective trade.

在超过邓巴数（约150人）之后——这是个估算值，具体会有所浮动——

After getting past Dunbar's number, which is around a 150 people, estimate it's an estimation, and it kind of varies.

但当人数超过150后，你就不再觉得自己是一个拥有共同目标的部落成员，无法清晰感知自己在做什么，反而开始感到群体间的割裂。

But after a 150, you stop feeling like you're part of a tribe that all has one goal, and that you can get a sense of what you're doing, and you start to feel like disparate groups.

这就是为何大企业极难让那些身处某个小镇技术圈的人真正感受到自己是整体的一部分。

This is why huge corporations have such an incredibly hard time making it seem like people who are in some, you know, technician circle in some single town are actually part of the whole.

相反，他们会视这家大公司为冷漠愚蠢的庞然大物，毫不关心他们的死活。

And instead, they look at it as this big stupid corporation that doesn't care about them or anything.

他们感到绝望。

They feel desperate.

由于远超邓巴数的限制，他们感到与组织脱节。

They feel disconnected from it because they've gone too far past Dunbar's number.

最终不可避免地分裂成派系、部门和地区，某种程度上他们不得不彼此竞争。

Inevitably, it breaks down into factions, into divisions, into regions, and they have to feel like they're competing with each other to some degree.

他们不属于其他地区。

They aren't that other region.

我们才是自己人。

We're our region.

技术人员讨厌愚蠢的客服来电者，反之亦然。

Technicians hate the stupid support callers and vice versa.

这时集体工具就至关重要。

This is where collective tools are crucial.

这时语言、宗教和货币就开始发挥作用。

This is where language, religion, and money come into play.

这些是将一切凝聚起来的粘合剂。

These are the glue that hold everything together.

它们是基础性的协调工具。

They are foundational coordination tools.

当这些工具被操纵或腐化时，比如政治操纵并破坏语言，它能让本无分歧的人们相互对立。

When these tools become manipulated or corrupted, like when politics manipulates and destroys language, it can pit people against each other that might not even disagree.

它模糊了我们彼此话语的真实含义，也掩盖了我们实际持有的信念。

It obscures the true meaning of what each other what each other might be saying or what beliefs we actually hold.

当金钱成为控制工具或政治特权，当它被贬值并随意印刷以满足某些主观政治愿景时，这些行为不会只带来短期的局部影响。

And when money becomes a tool of control or political privilege, when it's debased and printed arbitrarily to may meet some subjective political vision, these things don't have short term local consequences.

这些行为会毒害文化。

These things poison cultures.

这些行为会破坏全社会的长期投资，最终导致社会崩溃。

These things destroy long term investment across the society and ultimately make society break down.

没有强大稳定的语言和可靠的经济协调，文明就无法维系。

Civilization cannot be maintained without strong, stable language and reliable economic coordination.

这就像编辑社会的DNA。

It's like editing the DNA of society.

就像我们讨论一个有机体时，这相当于为了某个无关紧要的特性而篡改DNA，然后试图否认或拒绝相信篡改DNA会带来二阶三阶效应——最终导致整个机体癌变或死亡，因为你破坏了生物体自我创造、生长和修复的根本机制。

Like, if we're talking about, like, an organism, it's like going in and screwing with the DNA to get some single unimportant attribute and then trying to deny or refuse to believe that there are second and third order effects of screwing with the DNA, which has caused the entire organism to get cancer all over or die because you just the fundamental process by which that organism creates, grows, and heals itself.

因此若没有这些机制可靠持续地履行社会职能，人类最多只能维持邓巴数——约150人的群体规模。

So without these mechanisms, reliably and sustainably providing their role to society, Dunbar's number, again, a 150 people, is about the best humanity can do.

而在我看来，这三种工具中最重要的是金钱。

And in my opinion, the most important of those three tools is money.

因为在共享价值的背景下，从组织贸易和经济生产（所有繁荣的源泉）的能力出发，语言和集体信仰体系实际上会自然形成。

Because from the context of shared value, from the ability to trade and organize economic production, which is the source of all prosperity, language and a collective belief system would actually naturally emerge.

如果存在一种不同群体都能认同的价值图腾，就能实现跨语言群体的贸易。

If there's a totem of value that disparate groups can operate with, you can trade across groups who speak different languages.

只要货币语言、所有权和财产权的准则保持一致，你完全可以在宗教信仰不同、甚至道德观念相异的群体间进行贸易——货币比语言和宗教更为基础。

You can certainly trade across groups that have separate religions and potentially even separate morals if the code of the monetary language, ownership, and property rights remain consistent across to them, money is more foundational than language and religion.

我知道肯定会有一些人类学家或语言学家激烈反对这个观点，但我坚持己见。

Now I'm sure some anthropologist or linguist would argue with me vehemently about this, but I stand by it.

我的证据是：在历史上每个伟大文明中，黄金都被神化并视为神祇之物，而且这种崇拜都出现在该文明崛起之前，而非之后。

And my evidence is that gold was mythologized and held as something of the gods in essentially every great society of history, and that it was done before that society became great, not after.

换言之，这些文明并非因为强盛才采用黄金作为货币，而是将黄金货币化作为强盛的前提条件。

In other words, it wasn't a result of the society being great that they adopted, gold as money, it was a prerequisite.

他们先采用黄金作为货币，而后才成为伟大文明。

They adopted gold as money, and then became a great society.

稍后我们将通过推特上一个精彩的讨论串来深入探讨这一点。

And we'll actually get into that in a minute with an excellent thread on Twitter that I want to go over.

以上这些冗长的论述其实是想说明：货币会演变成集体核算工具，而某些特性使其成为绝佳的核算手段。

So all of this is a roundabout way of saying money develops into a collective accounting tool, and there are certain attributes of that tool that make it incredibly good for accounting.

其中一项特性就是它像预算表般的属性。

And one of those is the attributes that make it like a budget sheet.

所有计量单位都是相同的，并且可以无限分割成更小的单位。

All the points are the same, and you can break them down indefinitely into smaller and smaller units.

但这究竟能带来什么？为何我认为文明离不开这种机制？

But what exactly does this enable, and why do I think civilization is cannot survive without it?

这 literally 创造了现代社会的奇迹。

This literally creates the miracle of modern society.

劳动分工的专业化，以及通过高效协调数十亿人达成对社会需求共识所带来的无限繁荣。

The specialization of labor, and the limitless prosperity that arises from being able to efficiently coordinate billions and billions of people onto a single truth about what is or is not needed within society.

否则，没有货币，我们将不得不进行物物交换。

Otherwise, without money, we would have to barter.

我们都将直接面临邓巴数的限制——我必须知道南希总是想要鞋子，或者她现在刚好需要鞋；也许过几天她又需要修房子；而查德特别喜欢鱼。

We would all have to directly know what we would run into the Dunbar's number immediately, where I would have to know that Nancy specifically always wants shoes or maybe she wants shoes right now, and maybe in a couple of days, she's needing to repair something on her house, or Chad really likes fish.

所以如果我想和查德交易，就必须确保手头有鱼；同时现在还得为南希准备鞋子。

So if I wanna trade with something that Chad has, I need to make sure that I catch and have some fish on hand, and I need shoes right now for Nancy.

但如果是下周，我得记得把鞋给临时需要鞋的鲍勃。

But if it's next week, I gotta remember to get my shoes over to Bob who needs shoes temporarily.

但可惜这是女鞋，我不确定他是否会接受。

But, unfortunately, they're girly shoes, so I don't know I don't know if he's gonna want them.

但我必须和他交换些东西。

But I gotta trade him for something.

或许用些鱼和查德交易，因为他会修房子——这正是南希需要的。

Maybe some fish so I can trade for Chad because Chad knows how to fix stuff on houses, which is what Nancy wants.

你看，光是四个人就能让事情变得如此荒谬复杂的局面。

You see how stupidly and impossibly complicated this can get with, like, four people.

试图在数百万或数十亿人中协调这种关系，简直是天方夜谭。

Trying to orchestrate this across millions or billions of people is just a laughable impossibility.

这意味着经济协作将完全无法实现。

It just means that there's no economic coordination whatsoever.

货币解决了这个问题，它让全社会成员——无论宗教、种族、语言差异，还是生活在不同政体下——都能使用共同的价值语言，并精专于最细微的分工，最终融入整体经济体系。

Money solves that problem and makes everyone across society, even those with different religions, different races who speak different languages, and live under vastly different governments allow them to speak the same language of value, and specialize down into the most incredibly specific of tasks, and become part of an economic whole.

这是十亿人各自为政与十亿人同心协力的区别。

It's the difference between a billion people working separately and a billion people working together.

一个人单打独斗能取得什么成就，而十亿人朝着共同目标齐心协力又能创造什么奇迹。

What can any one of those people accomplish on their own versus what can a billion people accomplish working on the same thing toward the same goal.

这就是一个拥有货币、拥有可靠健全货币体系的社会与没有这种体系的社会之间的差异。

That is the difference in a society that has a money, has a reliable sound money, and one that does not.

然而太多人对此习以为常。

And so many people take this for granted.

太多人把这一切视为理所当然。

So many people take this for granted.

他们意识不到劳动分工与经济协调带来的奇迹，而我们是这些奇迹的受益者。

They do not realize what an absolute miracle it is of the specialization of labor, of the economic coordination that we are the beneficiaries of.

要知道，普通人走进杂货店时可能满心厌恶地咒骂资本主义——如果他们真的明白这个词的含义。

You know, the average person probably goes into a grocery store with disgust and hating capitalism or whatever, if they even know what that word means.

但下次当你走进杂货店时，不妨停下脚步环顾四周。

But the next time you do that, next time you go into a grocery store, just stop for a second and look around.

有时我走进某个场所，会被眼前景象背后凝聚的无数心血所震撼。

Sometimes I go into a place, and I'm just overwhelmed with how much went into making this possible.

停下来想想你眼前所见。

Stop and think what you are looking at.

从历史维度来看，这些事物的存在本身曾是多么不可思议。

And in a historical context, how stupidly impossible it ever was that this thing even exists.

这背后凝聚着数以万计人的心血。

There are literally tens of thousands.

我认为普通超市平均有大约5万种商品，它们来自地球的每个角落，汇集到一个巨大的冷藏箱里，你可以从家里快速开车到达，然后四处走动挑选你想要的东西。

I think the average is, like, 50,000 items in the typical grocery store, and they come from every corner of the earth into one giant refrigerated box that you can drive to quickly from your house so you can walk around and pick what you want.

从历史角度来看，这简直是科幻小说般的荒谬。

From a historical standpoint, that is science fiction nonsense.

试着想象一下人数，看着一件商品，试着在脑海中梳理整个生产线，它来自哪里，有多少人共同合作才将那件商品在保质期前有序地摆放在你面前的货架上，按字母顺序、类别或食品类型分类，来自多少个不同的地方。

Try to imagine the number of people, look at one product and try to work through your head the entire production line, where it came from, and the number of people who collectively worked together to bring just that one item to the shelf in front of you before its expiration date, organized and in order by alphabetical or category or type of food from how many different locations.

那些在南美洲这个时节种植你收获的食物的农民。

The farmers that grew the food that you harvest in South America this time of year.

但仅仅几个月后，它仍会在你当地的超市有货，但他们将在完全不同的半球或可能在地球另一端收获，因为季节变化，或是那些包装食品的人。

But in just a few months, it's still gonna be in stock at your local grocery store, but they're gonna be harvesting it in a completely different hemisphere or possibly halfway around the world from where it was today because the seasons change, or people who package the food.

那些设计和制造压缩机及引擎以保持食物冷藏的人，那些制造罐头和纸张上印刷油墨的人，那些驾驶卡车并组织运输以确保货物到达目的地的人，那些测试、实验并发现新食品或更低成本方法以达到相同质量的人，或者，你知道的，改变压缩机工作方式或制造某个小小转动齿轮之类的东西，稍微提高效率以节省成本。

The people who design and build the compressors and the engines that keep the food cold, and the people who make the ink and the print that goes on the front of the can and the paper, the people who drive the trucks and organize the shipments so that they get to their destinations, the people who test and experiment and find new foods or lower cost methods to achieve the same quality or, you know, change the way the compressor works or make some little little turning gear or something just a slightly more efficient that saves the cost.

尽管每台冰箱运行只节省10美分，但它被应用在十亿台不同的冰箱上，每年总共节省1亿美元，因为有人发现了一个小小的改进点。

And even though it's only 10¢ per refrigerator that's run, it gets put in a billion different refrigerators and saves collectively a $100,000,000 a year because somebody found one little thing to improve.

这条链条真的永无止境。

And this trail literally doesn't stop.

这是一个庞大且永不停止的循环。

It is a massive never ending circle.

你可以无限地追溯分支。

And you can take branches indefinitely.

在某个时刻，无论你做什么，你都可以追溯超市里几乎每件产品的所有分支，找出你在其中扮演了什么角色让那件东西得以存在。

And at some point, whatever it is that you do, you could go down all of the branches of probably every single product in the grocery store, and figure out where it is that you had a hand in making that thing come about.

这一切之所以可能，都是因为金钱。

That is made possible because of money.

我们在节目中读过一篇精彩的文章，伦纳德·里德所著的《铅笔的故事》。

There's this brilliant piece we have read on the show called I Pencil by Leonard Reed.

这是该领域最引人深思的思想实验之一，它正确指出：世界上没有一个人能独自制造出一支普通的二号铅笔。

It's one of the most fascinating thought experiments in this context, and it argues correctly that there is no person on earth who could make a simple number two pencil.

如果你还没听过这个观点，我不想剧透，因为它实在太精妙了。

If you have not heard it, I don't wanna spoil it for you because it's a brilliant piece.

我会在节目说明里附上链接。

I will link to it in the show notes.

实际上我还会再附一个链接，这是汤姆·伍兹的演讲。

And, actually, I'll link to another, this is a speech by Tom Woods.

演讲题目叫《用经济学解读美国历史》，是我非常喜欢的一个演讲。

It was called applying economics to American history, and it's a speech that I really love.

他在演讲中讲了个故事：某天他作为监护人陪同孩子们参加校外考察之类的活动。

And there's this story that he tells in this speech about there was a day where he was on he he was, like, chaperoned on some sort of field trip with his kids or something.

具体记不清是不是他孩子，总之有人突然哮喘发作。

And some I don't remember if it's his child, but somebody had, like, an asthma attack.

当时正值深夜。

And it was, like, the middle of the night.

大概是凌晨一点左右。

Was, 01:00 in the morning or something.

他立刻跳上车冲去一家24小时营业的街角药店。

And he jumped in his car and ran out and went to, like, a a corner pharmacy store, that was open twenty four seven.

他冲进过道找到沙丁胺醇之类的药物——就是孩子急需的救命药，这时他突然停住了。

So he runs down the aisle and he finds the albuterol or whatever it is, the medicine that the kid needed to make sure that, you know, he was gonna be okay, and that he paused.

他停顿了一下，自顾自地停了下来。

He paused and he just stopped to himself.

这真是个奇迹——深更半夜在一个他从未涉足的陌生地方，这个孩子患上了极难治愈的疾病，而地球另一端可能有人研制出了解药，并在世界的另一端生产出来，恰好离他所在位置只有短短车程。那药在午夜灯火通明处等待着他，只需花几块钱就能拿到，这相当于他工作一小时就能换来的价值。取药往返之间，在某种情境下或许就能挽救这个孩子的生命。

What a miracle it was that in the middle of the night, in this random place that he's never even been, and this kid has this disease that was incredibly difficult to fix, and somebody halfway around the world probably fixed it, and then produced it on the other half of the world, and then it just happens to be a quick drive from where he was, lit up in the middle of the night, ready for him to come get it for a couple of bucks, which was the amount of time it would take him to work, an hour's worth of work to pick this up, to run back, and potentially, you know, in some context, save this kid's life.

显然在这个场景中病情没那么危急，但理论上完全存在这种可能。

Obviously, it wasn't severe that severe in this scenario, but still, it literally could have.

我们怎能对此习以为常？

And then how could we ever take that for granted?

但整段演讲实在太精彩了，那个故事让我记忆犹新因为它本身就很有趣。

But that whole speech that whole speech is just really good, and that story always stuck with me because it was just fun.

我会在节目备注里附上相关链接。

So I'll link to that in the show notes as well.

这一切都因金钱成为可能。

So this is all possible because of money.

金钱是价值的图腾，是普世的协调工具，其应用范围之广让我们能调动最遥远分散的生产资源、人才资源，而最关键的是——人类的时间资源。

Money is a totem of value, a universal coordination tool that works so broadly, we can coordinate even the most disparate and distant sources of production, talent, and the key, human time.

因为所有生产活动、人才价值、效率损耗、创新成果，归根结底都指向人类时间的运用。

Which is what all production, talent, efficiency, waste, innovation, all of it comes back to human time.

让我们再次回顾历史课的内容。

So our history lesson, again.

货币最终扮演着集体核算工具的角色，通过持有盐或黄金等实物凭证，我能确凿证明自己创造过相应价值。

The role of money ends up serving as a collective accounting tool, where I can reliably say that I have produced this past value because I have the salt or the gold as evidence of it.

接着我们会发现，尽管货币最常起源于市场上另有用途的商品——比如这些盐本不是用来消费食物，黄金也非用于电子设备或金属器具、首饰等——但货币的本质已超越了其原始用途。

And then we begin to see that money, despite most commonly emerging from a good on the market that was probably used for something else, I'm using that salt not to consume food or that gold not as an electronics or, you know, metallic device itself or jewelry, whatever it is.

我用它来存储和转化价值。

I'm using it to store and translate value.

我把它作为对我过去所做工作的认证。

I'm using it using it as an authentication of the work I have done in the past.

这是我对未来资源的索取权，社会欠我的，因为我创造了它但尚未消费它。

It is my claim on future resources that I am owed back from society because I have produced it and not yet consumed it.

所以请从储蓄的角度来思考这个问题。

So think about this in the context of savings.

如果我工作攒下了1万美元，而我的工作是做三明治，每做一个三明治我能赚1美元利润。

If I have $10,000 in savings from my job, and what I do is I make sandwiches, and every single sandwich that I make, I have a dollar profit.

那么如果我拥有1万美元，就意味着我为社会实实在在地创造了1万个三明治。

Well, then if I have $10,000, it means that I have created 10,000 sandwiches positively into society.

我为世界、为经济净贡献了1万个三明治，这些价值我还没有取回。

I have a net of 10,000 positive sandwiches into the world, into the economy that I haven't taken back.

我持有的只是一个证明我过去完成工作的凭证。

All I am holding is a token that says I've done it in the past.

我为经济资源池做出了贡献，但尚未取出我的份额。

I've added to the bucket of economic resources, and I have yet to take it out.

我的储蓄金额就是我确凿无疑为世界创造的净生产价值。

The amount I have in savings is the net productive value that I have given to the rest of the world, provably.

我是冒着风险完成这些的，也有人押上他们的价值来认可说：是的，我同意这确实值这么多。

I have done it with skin in the game, and someone else put their value on the line to say, Yes, I agree, this is what it's worth.

我的储蓄账户就是我对社会的贡献。

My savings account is my contribution to society.

还需注意的是，作为一种认证工具，它具有信息属性。

And also note that as an authentication tool, it's informational.

当作为货币使用时，它并非实体工具。

It's not a physical tool when used as money.

货币的用途在于转化我过去创造的价值信息，并使其在未来仍可被我获取。

The purpose of money is to translate the information of the value I created in the past and make it accessible to me in the future.

这就是纸质货币能流通的原因，也是收藏品虽看似无其他价值却曾作为历史货币的缘由。

This is why paper representations of money work, why collectibles were a historical money as well despite seemingly having no other value.

因此历史上货币不仅限于黄金、盐、牲畜和贝壳珠。

So it wasn't just gold and salt and cattle and wampum.

其实贝壳珠就是个绝佳例子。

Well, actually, wampum's a great example.

比如海贝货币、库拉环交易中的库拉珠、非洲玻璃珠这类本质是收藏品，但制作难度极高的物品。

Like like seashell money and Kula ring the the Kula ring, like Kula beads and the African glass beads and these things that were actually collectibles, but they were really hard to create.

当这些物品逐渐形成价值成为货币后，其本身作为货币的价值源于它们成为了社会价值的代际证明。

As these things developed value and they became money, they ended up having value as the money themselves because they ended up being generational proof of the value that other people produced into society.

回到盐的概念，更具体地说像黄金这类货币金属形成的所谓'货币溢价'——而像纸币这样纯虚拟的货币形式则完全依赖货币溢价。

So going back to the idea of salt and, you know, more specifically the monetary metals like gold developing a monetary premium, quote unquote, Well, a a purely virtual form of money like paper fiat only has a monetary premium.

它没有使用价值基础。

It doesn't have a use base.

其价值完全体现在验证历史事件的能力上。

It is all monetary premium, which means that its value is entirely in its ability to authenticate what has happened in the past.

但即便如此，任何获得价值的虚拟货币表征或收藏品，都能发展出这种属性——历史上已多次印证这一点。

But it can develop nonetheless after acquiring any value at all, a virtual monetary representation or a collectible or something, and have done so many times in the past.

最初的用途是什么根本不重要。

And it doesn't even matter what that original use was.

我要推荐比特币领域最重要的一部著作，关于货币的本质与起源。

I'd refer to one of the most essential works in Bitcoin, on the nature and origins of money.

尼克·萨博的《货币起源的铺陈》写得实在太精彩了。

It is called shelling out the origins of money by Nick Szabo, and it is so good.

当然，本节目在Audible上也有。

Obviously, Audible on this show.

你可以在bitcoinaudible.com的图书馆里直接查看。

You can just look at it in the library at bitcoinaudible.com.

我建议听重启版，因为那是我更新的音频版本。

I would listen to the reboot because I think that's my updated audio version of it.

老版本音质较差，而且我有些发音错误等问题。

The really old version is kinda low quality, and I screw up some pronunciations and stuff.

我自己听过很多遍，说实话可能该重新录制一版了。

But I've listened to it myself numerous times and honestly, it's probably about time for a refresh of that one.