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又一次，银行业在这里需要被问责。
Yet again, like, the banking industry needs to be held accountable here.
我们是世界上唯一一个没有即时支付系统的国家。
We're the only country in the world that doesn't have, like, instant payments.
在美国，使用支票兑现服务的70%的人其实都有银行账户。
70% of people in The United States who use, like, check cashing services have bank accounts.
我觉得日本在七十年代就已经实现了即时结算。
I think Japan had instant settlement in, like, the seventies.
但你知道，找一个理由说，对于普通美国人来说，稳定的玉米产量是坏事，而他们的支票账户利率只有0.1%，但他们却可以持有美国国债作为例子，赚取当前大约3.5%的利差。
But, you know, find me an argument that stable corn yield for your average American is a bad thing when their checking account gives them point 1%, and they can hold USTC as an example and earn what whatever the spread is they're sharing with that 3.5% whatever it is now.
这是保护主义。
It is protectionism.
这个行业一直抵制更新支付基础设施。
The industry's resisted updating the payments infrastructure.
这不过是银行业又一次抵制让你们、我以及每个美国人更方便地使用合理支付系统的行为，甚至可能因为这些系统威胁到他们靠投机获利的根基。
This is just another chapter in banking industry resisting making it easier for you and me and every American to use payment rails that make sense, that maybe even, god forbid, you know, unable to profit from because it flies the base of their own wild cards.
好了，各位。
Alright, everyone.
欢迎回到由比特币杂志主办的比特币政策时间。
Welcome back to the Bitcoin Policy Hour hosted by Bitcoin Magazine.
和往常一样，今天有两位常驻嘉宾出席。
As usual, joined by by two of the usual three guests.
史蒂文今天缺席。
Steven's out for the day.
他孩子生病了，所以我们来替他主持。
He's got a a sick kiddo, so we'll we'll fill in for him.
但今天，我们请到了BPI政府事务总监肯·伊根，以及BPI政策主管扎克·夏皮罗。
But today, we've got Ken Egan, BPI's director of government affairs, and Zach Shapiro, BPI's head of policy.
和往常一样，提醒一下，如果你还没有的话，请务必订阅比特币政策研究所和比特币杂志。
As usual, a reminder here, if you haven't already, make sure you're subscribed to both Bitcoin Policy Institute and Bitcoin Magazine.
你可以在下方的描述中找到订阅按钮。
You can find the subscribe button in the description below.
本周的话题，我认为最大的新闻是Coinbase撤回了对加密货币市场结构法案的支持，所以我们来深入探讨一下。
Topics for this week, I think the big the big news of the week was Coinbase pulling their support from the crypto market structure legislation, so we'll dig into that.
有了SBR的最新更新。
There was a SBR update.
我们上周稍微谈到了这一点，即司法部是否已清算了来自Samurai钱包案的没收加密货币。
We spoke a little bit about it last week, whether the Department of Justice had liquidated some of the forfeited coins from the Samurai wallet case.
我们从白宫得到了这方面的最新消息。
So we got an update from that from the White House.
谈谈这个。
Talk about that.
然后在更偏向地缘政治的方面，像往常一样，聊聊伊朗的情况，看看能否将其与比特币政策议题联系起来。
And then on the more sort of geopolitical side, as usual, talking a little bit about what's going on in Iran and and see if we can bring it back to the Bitcoin policy conversation.
不敢保证一定能联系上。
No guarantees there.
不过，我们还是直接切入正题吧。
But, yeah, we'll jump right in here.
扎克，我知道你一直密切关注这件事，并与行业内的相关人员进行了交流。
Zach, I know you've been following this pretty closely and having some conversations with folks in the industry.
关于Clarity法案，也就是目前在参议院的市场结构法案，情况如何？
What's going on with Clarity, which, again, is the the market structure bill currently in the senate.
目前它的进展如何？能否告诉我们Coinbase为何撤回了对它的支持？
What's the status of that, and maybe tell us why Coinbase pulled their support from it?
是的。
Yeah.
作为背景，我想是在周一晚上，或者周二凌晨，我们收到了参议院银行委员会对市场结构法案草案的修订版。
So by way of background, I think it was Monday night, late Monday night, early Tuesday morning, we got a marked up version of the senate banking committee's draft of the market structure bill.
市场结构法案已经在美国众议院通过。
So market structure bill has already passed through congress or the house of representatives.
现在它提交到了参议院。
It's in front of the senate.
参议院的委员会将对两个版本进行投票。
There are two versions that are going to be voted on in the senate in committees.
它们必须被协调成一个最终版本，该版本需经参议院通过，然后与众议院的法案进行协调，如果要成为法律，总统将签署生效。
They're gonna have to be harmonized into a final version, which would have to pass the senate, and then that would be harmonized with the house bill, and then the president would sign that into law if it is to become law.
我们事先就知道有三个领域可能会有争议，而这三个领域至今仍充满争议。
There were sort of three areas we knew were going to be contentious going into this, that all three of which are are still proving to be contentious.
其中之一是关于稳定币收益的问题，我们稍后会详细讨论。
One of them is a question around stablecoin yield that we'll talk about in more detail.
另一个是关于监管去中心化金融和非托管工具的问题，我们也可以进一步探讨。
One is a question about regulating DeFi and noncustodial tools, which we can also talk more about.
第三个则是关于道德和利益冲突的担忧。
And then the third is around ethics and conflict of interest concerns.
因此，农业委员会本打算与银行委员会同时对这项法案进行标记修改。
And so the agriculture committee was going to mark up the bill at the same time as the banking committee.
他们意识到这些内容将会引发争议。
They realized that these things were gonna be controversial.
他们想先看看银行委员会这边会如何处理。
They kinda wanted to see how it was gonna play out with the bank committees.
首先，农业委员会将他们的法案审议推迟了半个月，以便观察银行业委员会的进展，看看能否达成两党共识。
The first thing that happened is the agriculture committee pushed their markup back by a week and a half to wait to see what happened with the banking committee and see if if there could be bipartisan consensus.
达成两党共识很重要，因为要在参议院通过法案，你需要一个能抵御阻挠议事的多数票，也就是100名参议员中的60票，这意味着你需要一些愿意合作的民主党人支持。
The bipartisan consensus piece is important because in order to get out of the senate, you need a filibuster proof majority, which means 60 of the 100 senators, which means you need a number of Democrats on board, and so you need some input from Democrats that are inclined to play ball.
似乎确实有一些民主党人愿意合作，并希望制定出良好的政策。
And there are, it seems, Democrats that are inclined to play ball and want to to make good policy here.
但也有一些民主党人，比如我们熟悉的沃伦参议员，他们坚决反对加密货币，想尽一切办法扼杀这项法案。
There are also other Democrats like our favorite, senator Warren, who are just staunchly anti crypto and and wanna kill this, you know, in whatever way they can.
于是我们有了这份草案法案。
So we got this draft bill.
当这份草案公布时，加密社区对其中的多个方面都颇有微词。
There was a lot of sort of grumbling in the crypto community when it came out about various aspects.
关于非托管工具和开发者保护——我们在这档节目中主要讨论的这些内容——我会给这份法案打个B+。
You know, with the regard to sort of noncustodial tools and developer protections, which we mostly talk about on this show, I'd give the bill a b plus.
它包含了《区块链监管确定性法案》的核心保护条款，我认为这才是最重要的部分。
It has the core protections from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which I think is the most important thing.
该法案中包含一项自我托管条款，明确规定政府机构不得制定侵犯人们自我托管权利的法律。
There is a self custody provision enshrining into law the you know, barring government agencies from creating laws that would infringe on people's rights to self custody.
而且，我认为它做得相当不错。
And, you know, I I think it does a pretty good job.
法案还赋予财政部一定的权力，以监管那些要求不如《银行保密法》严格的前端服务。
There are some additional authority given to the treasury department to regulate front ends that are not as stringent as the full Bank Secrecy Act.
其中还有一些关于混合器和混币器的研究，以及财政部的特别措施，这些并不理想。
There are some studies in there on mixers and tumblers and on special measures for the treasury department that are not ideal.
但总体而言，有这项法案总比没有好。
But overall, this is like a, you know, definitely better to have this bill than not.
然后是法案的核心内容，即界定什么是商品、什么是证券。
And then there's the core of the bill, which is about what's a what's commodity, what's a security.
这正是风险投资机构和代币发行方最关心的问题。
It's really the the type of thing that the sort of VCs and token issuers care about.
针对这项法案，提交了多项修正案。
There were a bunch of amendments submitted to this bill.
这些修正案都没有特别重要，因为在正式标记和确定哪些修正案会被采纳之前，Coinbase就已经因为稳定币收益问题撤回了对这项法案的支持。
None of them are hugely important because before we got to the official markup and what amendments are gonna make it in or whatnot, Coinbase pulled their support for the bill over the stablecoin yield issue.
那么，稳定币收益问题是什么？
So what is the stablecoin yield issue?
我们几个月前通过并纳入联邦法律的唯一一项加密货币立法是《天才法案》。
The one piece of crypto legislation we have passed through into federal law a few months back is the Genius Act.
《天才法案》的范围没有这个市场结构法案那么广，后者才是真正关于加密货币整体监管的法案。
The Genius Act is not as broad a bill as this market structure bill, which is really about how crypto is regulated at large.
《天才法案》专门针对稳定币。
The Genius Act is specific to stablecoins.
大型银行非常不喜欢稳定币。
Big banks really don't like stablecoins.
他们明白，稳定币比他们自己的产品更优秀。
They understand that stablecoins are a better product than themselves.
如果你曾经去过本地银行网点办过任何业务，你就能理解那有多糟糕，简直像做肛肠检查一样，而相比之下，发送稳定币就简单多了——只要你注册了Coinbase账户，就能轻松收发稳定币。
If you've ever been to a local bank branch to do anything, you can understand how that is just a terrible, you know, proctology like experience compared to, you know, sending stablecoins, which is, like, pretty easy once you have a Coinbase account set up, you can send and receive stablecoins really easily.
银行非常担心人们会因为这个原因直接持有稳定币，而不是开设银行账户。
The banks were really worried about people just holding stablecoins instead of having bank accounts for that reason.
因此，当《天才法案》出台时，银行进行了大力游说，并成功推动禁止稳定币发行方——如Tether和Circle这类公司——向持有稳定币的人支付利息。
And so the banks lobbied really hard when the Genius Act came out, and they successfully lobbied to ban stablecoin issuers, the companies that issue stablecoins like Tether and Circle, from paying interest to people for holding stablecoins.
他们禁止了产生收益的稳定币。
They banned yield bearing stablecoins.
他们没有考虑到的一点是，大概因为他们自己都没有Coinbase账户，即使禁止发行方支付稳定币利息，第三方非稳定币发行方仍然可以支付收益。
What they didn't account for, I guess, because none of them have a Coinbase account, is that even if you ban issuers from paying interest on stablecoins, third parties that are not the stablecoin issuers can still pay yield.
因此，Coinbase和Circle达成了一项合资合作：如果你拥有Coinbase账户，并在账户中持有USDC（Circle发行的稳定币），Coinbase会为你支付利息。
And so you have a joint venture between Coinbase and Circle, where if you have a Coinbase account, if you hold a USDC balance, USDC is Circle's stablecoin on your Coinbase account, Coinbase will pay you interest.
他们会给你类似高收益储蓄账户的回报。
They'll pay you something similar to a high yield savings account.
他们支付的利率远高于普通银行的支票或储蓄账户。
They will pay you much more than you can get in a garden variety checking or savings account at a bank.
所以，尽管稳定币发行方被禁止支付利息，但这仍然是一种变通方式。
And so that that is sort of a workaround even though, you know, yield is banned from stablecoin issuers.
银行对此非常愤怒。
The banks are really pissed about this.
他们想，我们怎么会允许这种情况发生？
They like, how did we let that happen?
他们再次大力游说，成功地在这一市场结构法案中加入了新的条款，而我们直到本周才看到这份讨论稿，其内容比《天才法案》更进一步。
And they lobbied really hard, again, successfully to get new language added to this market structure bill that we didn't see until the sort of discussion draft this week that goes further than the genius.
尽管市场结构法案本不该涉及稳定币，但他们还是趁机插入了一条：第三方不得对稳定币支付收益。
Even though the market structure bill is not supposed to be about stablecoins, they kinda, you know, had a drive by shooting where they said, and by the way, third parties can't pay yield on stablecoins.
要点。
Points.
你可以为某些活动提供奖励，比如在平台上使用稳定币时，但你不能像Coinbase那样做。
You can, you know, do some rewards for some activities, like if you're using a stable coin on a platform, but but you can't do what Coinbase is doing.
在Coinbase这样的平台上通过稳定币赚取收益，是人们持有稳定币的重要原因之一。
You know, the the ability to earn yield on a platform like Coinbase on your stablecoins is a big reason why people hold stablecoins.
对吧？
Right?
像Coinbase希望你持有大量资产。
Like, Coinbase wants you to hold a lot of assets.
如果你达到他们信用卡的最高级别奖励，他们希望你把稳定币作为被动余额存放在他们的平台上。
If you get the highest tier of rewards on their credit card, they want you to hold stablecoins in their platform just as a passive balance.
我认为现在有很多人就是这样做的，但如果你不能获得任何收益，他们就不会这么做，因为你知道，你只是持有被贬值的美元，根本赶不上通货膨胀，而不是拥有类似高收益储蓄账户的东西。
And I think there are a lot of people who are doing that now that would not do that if you weren't earning any yield because, you know, you you just have debased dollars that are not even close to keeping up with inflation instead of having something that looks like a high yield savings account.
所以这对Coinbase来说在经济上非常重要。
So this is pretty economically important to Coinbase.
银行业推动这一条款根本没有正当理由，除了他们担心必须与稳定币竞争。
There's not really an excuse for the banking industry to have pushed for this other than, you know, they're worried about having to compete with stablecoins.
这是赤裸裸的保护主义，他们提出这一条款简直荒谬，但银行业游说团体在华盛顿权力很大，所以他们成功加入了这一条款。
This is naked protectionism, and it's, you know, it's kinda BS that they ask for this provision, but the banking lobby is very powerful in DC, and so they were able to get this language added.
现在的问题是，尽管这不公平，禁止第三方稳定币收益的条款不该出现在法案中，但我们还是需要这个法案通过。
Now the problem is, like, even though that's unfair and the ban on third party stablecoin yield shouldn't be in the bill, like, we need this bill to pass.
我们必须让它通过，因为现在SEC对什么是证券、什么不是证券的问题一团糟。
We need it to pass because it's a mess right now, you know, in the SEC about what's security, what's not.
我们需要通过这项法案，因为我们亟需开发者保护措施，以避免更多像Samurai和TorinoCash这样的案件发生。
We need this bill to pass because we need the developer protections to avoid more cases like Samurai and TorinoCash.
我们还需要这项法案，因为只有通过立法建立市场结构，才能阻止未来任何一届政府推翻特朗普政府为使比特币和加密行业在美国更易运作而制定的监管措施。
And we need this bill because getting a market structure bill passed through law is the only thing that would stop a future administration from just undoing all of the regulation that the Trump administration has done to make, you know, Bitcoin and crypto industry more workable in The United States.
如果我们通过了这样的市场结构法案，它将成为联邦法律，总统无法在新总统上任后单方面撤销。
If we pass something like this market structure bill, that becomes federal law that the president can't just undo when there's a new president.
你必须再通过另一项法案，并经历整个立法流程才行。
You would actually need to pass another bill and go through this whole process.
因此，这将提供更持久的法律保障，让企业能够为未来做规划。
So it's it's much more sort of permanent legal protections that will allow companies to plan into the future.
如果你真想如特朗普所说，让美国成为全球加密之都，你就必须让企业能够进行长期规划，而不能仅仅依赖他的口头承诺——毕竟，到2028年，总统AOC可能随时推翻这一切。
And if you, you know, want to do as Trump says and make America the crypto capital of the world, you need to be able to have companies plan for the long term and not just take his word for it when, you know, president AOC could could undo it in 2028.
所以，我的观点是，虽然我理解Coinbase对银行游说团体在稳定币收益问题上的不满，但这并不是值得拼死争取的阵地。
And so, you know, my view is that, like, while I am sympathetic with Coinbase's frustration at the banking lobby over the stablecoin yield thing, this is not the hill to die on.
因此，Coinbase表示，由于稳定币收益问题，以及另一个稍显晦涩的问题——即如何将股票和债券等传统证券引入区块链——他们无法在当前形式下支持该法案。
And so Coinbase said, we can't support the bill in its current form because of the stablecoin yield issue and because of another slightly more esoteric issue having to do with bringing traditional securities like stocks and bonds onto the blockchain.
我从与业内人士的交流中了解到，市场结构法案第五百零五条中的另一个问题，他们即将达成解决方案。
My understanding from talking to people in industry is that that other issue in section five zero five of the market structure bill, like, they're gonna reach a resolution.
这并不是一个大问题。
That's not a huge issue.
所以，真正的问题在于稳定币收益这一项。
And so really, this is about the stablecoin yield thing.
我认为，目前这种局面令人非常沮丧，因为整个行业迫切需要通过这项市场结构法案。
And it's this, I think, really frustrating situation where the industry writ large really needs the market structure bill to pass.
这对这个领域的公司来说至关重要。
Like, that's really important for companies in the space.
我理解稳定币收益是Coinbase商业模式的重要组成部分。
I understand that stablecoin bill yield stablecoin yield is a big part of Coinbase's business model.
这与他们和Circle的合作密切相关，也是Circle估值的关键部分。
It's a big part of their, you know, deal with Circle, and it's a big part of the valuation for Circle.
因此，像Coinbase、Circle、PayPal、Pax或其他相关公司都在推动：如果不取消对稳定币收益的银行禁令，他们就不会支持这项法案。
And so you have companies like Coinbase, Circle, PayPal, you know, Pax or whoever that are that are, you know, pushing for we won't want this bill to go forward without getting rid of the the, you know, banking ban on stablecoin yield.
另一方面，你有那些深度参与代币化、建筑或非托管应用的人，比如罗宾汉、安德森·霍洛维茨、富达等，他们说：听好了。
On the other hand, you have the the people that are really involved in tokenization and in buildings or noncustodial apps, you know, everything from, you know, Robinhood, Andreessen Horowitz, you know, Fidelity that that are like, listen.
我们不能因为这个稳定币问题而失败。
We we can't die over this stablecoin issue.
我们需要通过这项法案，无论有没有这些保护措施。
We need to pass the bill with or without those protections.
整个行业因此出现了严重分歧。
And there's sort of a big split in the industry.
但我觉得我们现在的情况是，Coinbase表示他们愿意为此退出。
But I I think where we sit now is Coinbase is saying that they are willing to walk over this.
我认为银行游说团体很乐意借此扼杀这项法案。
I think the banking lobby would be happy to kill this bill of this issue.
对吧？
Right?
他们几乎没有动力坐下来达成妥协，而且他们影响力巨大，因为在华盛顿的游说力量远超加密行业，而加密行业还算是个新兴势力。
They there's not a lot of incentive for them to come to the table and reach a compromise, and they have a lot of juice because they're they're just a much, you know, bigger lobbying presence in DC than crypto, which is a relative upstart.
除非发生有意义的改变，否则我认为这项法案根本无法通过银行委员会，因此也来不及通过。
And unless something meaningful changes, I think this bill is just not gonna make it out of the banking committee and therefore not going to pass in time.
我们现在处于中期选举年，所以参议院在中期选举前、新参议院成立前，用于通过法案的议程时间极其有限且极其宝贵，时间正在流逝。
We're we're in a midterm year, and so, you know, the floor time in the senate to get stuff passed before the midterms and before there's a new senate is extremely limited and extremely valuable, and so the clock is ticking.
如果我们不能尽快就这个问题达成妥协，我认为这项法案根本无法通过。
And if we don't reach a compromise on this soon, I think this is just not going to pass.
因此，我认为当前的状况非常糟糕。
And so I think it's a pretty bad state of affairs.
我的看法是，Coinbase 在这里扮演了坏人的角色。
My Kent view is that, like, Coinbase is is kind of the bad guy here.
我知道，银行业游说团体最初添加这段条款才是真正的坏人，但事实就是如此。
Like, I you know, like, the banking lobby is the original bad guy for adding this language, but but that is what it is.
我们理解他们必然会争取自己的利益。
Like, we understand that they're gonna take their pound of flesh.
所以，摆在我们面前的选择要么是接受一个不完美的法案。
And so I think the options in front of us are either we accept an imperfect bill.
你知道，不幸的是，这将禁止Coinbase对稳定币支付收益，或者如果没有通过这项法案，我们就完全听任下一届总统行政当局的摆布。
You know, unfortunately, that will ban Coinbase from paying yield on stable coins, or if there's not gonna be a bill, we are completely at the mercy of whatever the next presidential administration happens to be.
肯，我想听听你的看法。
Ken, I I wanna go to you.
莱穆斯参议员团队发了一条推文。
There was a a tweet put out by senator Lemus' team.
我想从这条推文中摘录一小段，希望你能对此作出回应。
And, you know, just gonna pull out a little quote from this, and and hopefully, you can respond to this.
她说，今天来自行业一些人的回应证明，他们根本还没有准备好。
She said, today's response from some in the industry proves that they are just not ready.
尽管我深感失望，但我仍致力于听取这些反馈，并与行业合作，推出帮助他们蓬勃发展的产品。
And while I'm deeply disappointed, I'm committed to taking this feedback and partnering with the industry to deliver a product that helps them thrive.
我想知道，你认为这是否是一个准确的表述。
I'm curious if you think that that's an accurate representation.
当然，这里还有布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗的评论，他说：‘同意，谢谢。’
There was, you know, obviously a comment from from Brian Armstrong on here that said agreed and thank you.
所以，是的，我想听听你对这个问题的看法。
So, yeah, curious on your thoughts on that.
我的意思是，国会对加密货币立法，尤其是市场结构，已经感到非常疲惫。
I mean, I there's a lot of fatigue on Capitol Hill about crypto legislation in general and certainly market structure.
这已经持续了七个月、八个月了。
This has been going on for seven months, eight months.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，早在之前我们就已经有所预期。
I mean, and and and while anticipating before.
所以我认为，部分原因在于，这周我去了国会山，在参议院办公室里，他们都在谈论这件事。
So I think in part, again, I was on the Hill this week in the Senate office, and they all talk about it.
大家就是感到疲惫了。
There's just fatigue.
有些人厌倦了不断起草这些法案，因为游说团体太强势了。
There are people who are tired of doing these bills because, the cripple lobby is very aggressive.
每个人都对裙带游说感到疲惫。
Everybody has cripple lobby fatigue.
这并不是对行业的批评。
And it's not a criticism of industry.
这只是事情的本性。
It's just nature of it.
今年国会通过了大量立法，这些仍在学习曲线左端的工作人员正被信息狂轰滥炸。
There's been so much legislation on the hill this year that these staffers who still are, you know, on the on the sort of the the left end of the learning curve, are being bombarded.
所以我完全理解。
And so I I I I get it.
我认为这可能是一种挫败感的体现，因为她确实一直在积极推动此事。
And I think maybe that's a little sign of frustration because she's really tried to lead in this.
自从她进入参议院以来，就一直领导着这项工作。
She's been leading in this since she's been in the senate.
对吧？
Right?
这是她，你知道的，她今年就要退休了。
This is her you know, she's retiring this year.
我认为她可能希望这些法案能够通过。
I think she'd probably like to see these bills passed.
这可能有一点疲惫感，还有，嗯，就是一种挫败感。
Could be a little bit of, like, a sort of, you know, fatigue and, yeah, just frustration.
但我确实知道，说实话，这对她来说很重要，她希望看到它通过。
But I do, you know, I think I know for a fact, I mean, she this this is important to her and she likes to see it pass.
所以我有一点挫败感，也有一点整体的疲惫。
So I have a little bit of frustration, a little bit of overall fatigue.
而且再说一次，你知道，上周还有人说，他们期待着完成签署仪式。
And again, I you know, last week, there are people saying, you know, the the why I was talking about looking forward to getting, know, signing signing ceremonies done.
而我们现在就在这里。
And now here we are.
但我想我们现在看到了什么？
But I think what do see now?
这有点像是反攻。
This is kind of counter offensive.
我的意思是，2025年对银行业游说团体来说是艰难的一年。
I mean, 2025 was kind of a rough year for the banking lobby.
他们讨厌天才。
They hated genius.
我认为，你知道，我认为政府说了，好吧。
And I think, you know, I I think the administration said, okay.
行。
Fine.
我们会给你们稳定币收益这个问题。
We'll give you this this the stablecoin yield issue.
并期望让摩根大通自行其是，也许一年后，当他们建好了基础设施，我们再重新考虑。
And with the anticipation that, you know, let let JPMorgan do their thing, and maybe a year from now, when they've got the infrastructure set up, maybe we'll revisit it.
但这只是其中一个例子。
But that's just one example.
在监管方面，证券交易委员会和货币监理署所采取的一切措施。
Everything on the regulatory front, things the SEC did, the OCC did.
2025年，银行业游说团体度过了艰难的一年，他们对此并不满意。
The banking lobby had a bad year in 2025, and they don't like it.
就在圣诞节前不久，我记不太清具体时间了，他们推出了美国增长联盟，这是一个由银行组成的联盟，即501(c)(4)组织。
And you saw back in was just, I forget, just before Christmas, They launched the American Growth Alliance, which is a consortium of banks, the five zero one c four.
这是一个团体，旨在维护他们的利益。
It's a it's a pack, with the with the with the intent of defending their interests.
所以我认为，这不过是第一枪。
So I think this is this is the opening shot.
几个月前，当我们都还在国会讨论市场结构时，没人想到这一点。
Nobody thought, a few months back when we were all kind of talking about market structure on the hill.
对我们而言，我们始终在不断提醒自己关注BRCA。
And again, for us, we're always, you know, constantly refrained of BRCA.
没人预料到稳定币会被引入这场博弈。
No one anticipated stable coins being dropped into this thing.
但你知道，我觉得银行业游说团体并没有准备好应对去年出现的情况。
But, you know, again, I think the banking lobby wasn't ready for what was coming out than last year.
这是他们的反击。
And this is their counter offensive.
对吧？
Right?
这或许并不意外，但他们确实需要弥补很多失去的阵地。
Probably not not unexpected, but, again, they need to they gotta make up for a lot of they're to make up for a lot of lost ground.
所以我很好奇接下来会发生什么。
So I'm I'm curious to see what happens.
你知道，我觉得没有法案总比坏法案要好。
You know, I again, I think it's better a better no bill than a bad bill.
这其实是一把双刃剑。
It kinda cuts both ways.
我们相当幸运，因为区块链相关条款在某项法案中的规定得到了良好保护。
We were fairly fortunate in that the blockchain rate through a certain act provisions were well protected.
还有一些扎克提到的内容，是关于软件开发者的权利保护。
And then some of these some of things that Zach touched on, for software developers protection rights.
你知道，这并不是一个糟糕的法案。
And, you know, it was it was not a bad bill.
当然，你们中的一些人可能上周注意到了，来自怀俄明州的卢米斯参议员和来自俄勒冈州的民主党参议员怀登发布了实际上已提交的法案，旨在阻止所谓的‘区块链慈善法案’，这与汤姆·埃默和里奇·托雷斯等两党团体在众议院提出的法案相呼应，是一份配套法案。
Of course, in, you know, and some of you probably noticed last week that Senator Lummis and Senator Wyden, the Democrat from Oregon, released the actually submitted the bill to block essentially, it's the block charity to assert the act, a mirror bill from what was released in the house from, like, Tom Emmer and and Richie Torres, another bipartisan group, a companion bill.
我不知道他们是想施加压力，还是至少要表明立场：顺便说一下，那些人们还没怎么讨论的条款对我们来说依然重要。
I I I don't know if it was to put pressure on or at least to put a marker down saying, you know, by the way, these these provisions that people aren't really talking about are still important to us.
而且，就在今天，我们听一些朋友说，参议院司法委员会内部已有风声，表示如果能换取其他投票，或许可以对某些条款进行调整。
And, again, just today, we heard from some friends that there's been rumblings in the judiciary committee in the senate, like, maybe we can tinker with that if it means getting other votes.
所以这场斗争还没有结束。
So this fight isn't over.
这件事真的、真的非常重要，大家要持续关注、密切关注事态发展。
This is it's really, really important that people stay, stay in it, stay tuned to what's going on.
参议院现在休会了，我想接下来十天都不会开会。
The Senate is out of session now, I think, the next ten days.
我认为参议员们已经回家了，但我认为这场斗争还没结束。
Think the senators were sent home, but I I I I don't think it's over.
但也有一些积极的迹象。
But there are some bright spots.
我想你看到了，比如来自马里兰州的新人参议员阿尔索普，她举手发言，提出了一个可能不是我会亲自起草的提案，但这是一个试图弥合不同观点的合理建议。
I think you saw, for example, senator Alsoprooks, a freshman senator from Maryland, kind of raise her hand and and, you know, with with what was probably, again, it's not a proposal that maybe I would have, like, written myself, but it was a reasonable proposal trying to bridge the trying to bridge the, trying to bridge the points of view.
所以我认为她值得肯定。
So I think she she gets credit.
她所在的办公室显然希望在这一议题上发挥领导作用，她敢于投身这场艰难的斗争，尽管我认为这可能不是我会写的提案，但无疑是一个合理且成熟的建议，她因此值得称赞。
She it's an office that I think that's wanted to to lead in this issue and she takes she gets credit for, like, jumping into kind of a tough fight with, I thought, was, again, maybe not my not the proposal I would have written, but certainly it was it was it was a reasonable and mature proposal.
所以我认为她为此值得肯定。
So I think she gets credit for that.
希望她不会就此放弃，说‘我试过一次了，这些人简直是疯子’。
Hopefully hopefully she hasn't won't throw her hands up in here and say, tried once and these people are maniacs.
所以我们拭目以待。
So we'll see what so we'll, we'll see.
但再说一次，我认为这从根本上说是一场反攻。
But again, I I think it fundamentally it's it's the counter offensive.
是银行在2025年咬牙切齿地表态：好吧，行吧。
It's the banks, you know, spitting their teeth out from 2025 and saying, okay, fine.
让我们握紧拳头，重新投入这场战斗。
Let's wrap up our knuckles and get back in this fight.
我认为这正是他们抓住的机会。
And I think this was their chance to do that.
扎克，我认为肯在这里暗示的是，下一轮博弈可能会出现银行业游说团体说：嘿。
Zach, I think what Ken's kind of alluding to here is that there's a possibility that the next round of iterations looks like, you know, the banking lobby saying, hey.
我们会更加强硬，或者继续在稳定币问题上施压。
You know, we're gonna push harder or we're gonna continue to push on this stablecoin issue.
最终，共和党人不得不在其他议题上与民主党人妥协。
And then, ultimately, you know, the Republicans are gonna have to compromise with the Democrats on something else.
而根据参议院司法委员会的动向，我认为用肯的话来说，BRCA可能会成为那个妥协方案。
And that maybe, you know, based on the senate judiciary rumbling, I think to use Ken's language there, that that the BRCA might be the compromise there.
所以我想这是一个双重问题。
So I guess it's a twofold question here.
第一个是，与之前的BRCA措辞和先前的草案相比，现在有什么变化？
One is what changed from previous BRCA language from previous drafts to this current one?
如果这些措辞甚至被进一步削弱，这是否会导致BPI彻底撤回对这项立法的支持？
And if it's the case that that language gets sort of nerfed even further, is that something that you know, causes BPI to basically pull our support from this piece of legislation?
到目前为止被弱化的是，这里有一个关于非托管开发者和非托管服务提供商的良好定义，也就是说，它会审视一个产品，并判断：是否存在一个可界定的群体，能够独立且单方面控制用户资金？
So what's nerfed so far is the there is this, I think, good definition of a non custodial developer and a non custodial service provider, which is, you know, it looks at a product and it says, you know, does any definable group of people have independent and unilateral control of user funds?
我认为，'独立'意味着完全控制。
I think, you know, independent means, you know, full control.
他们可以将资金转移到任何地方。
They can they can move it wherever they want.
而'单方面'是为了保护联邦工具，比如侧链、eCash之类的。
And unilateral is meant to protect federated tools like side chains, e cash, stuff like that.
它指出，如果你不具备独立且单方面的控制权，那么仅仅因为开发、托管或提供技术支持，并不构成资金传输者。
And it says that if you don't have independent unilateral control, you are not a money transmitter by virtue of developing the technology, hosting the technology, providing support for the technology, you know, and, you know, one more.
所以这仅仅与技术本身有关。
So it's just like something around the technology.
我们之前看到的版本是，如果你是非托管开发者或服务提供商，你就完全不是资金传输者。
And the previous version we'd seen is if you're a non scale developer service provider, you're just not a money transmitter writ large.
这里被削弱的主要方式是，它限定了你不会被认定为资金传输者的活动范围。
The main way it's nerfed here, it says, is it sort of circumscribes the activities for which you will not be deemed a money transmitter.
事实上，这些条款的写法相当宽泛，如果从律师的角度来看，我们完全可以接受这一点。
The truth is the way those are written, right, that providing services for non custodial tools, is pretty broad and like wearing my lawyer hat, it's like we we can we can definitely work with that.
我不太担心它被限定的方式。
Like, I'm not I'm not so concerned about the way in which it's circumscribed.
此外，还有一些并非削弱BRCA、但与我们关心的内容相悖的不良条款。
Then there's other sort of, like, bad stuff that's added that's not really nerfing the BRCA, but it's intention with the stuff we care about.
最主要的是对前端的额外授权。
The main one is additional authority over front ends.
因此，要求前端必须遵守制裁合规规定。
So there's a requirement that front ends have to do sanctions compliance.
事实上，我们之前就差不多这么认为。
Truth is, like, we already kinda thought that.
对吧？
Right?
比如，OFAC的规定适用于所有人，而不仅仅是资金传输者，所以前端平台本来就应该而且必须进行制裁筛查。
Like, OFAC doesn't you know, applies to everyone, not just money transmitters, and so front ends probably should and have to do sanction screening anyway.
它还提出了超出OFAC的一些额外要求，比如实施合理的链上分析，以追踪勒索软件或指定的不良行为者。
Imposes some additional requirements beyond OFAC to implement reasonable chain analytics to to go after sort of ransomware or designated bad actors.
这似乎也不是什么大不了的事，而且只适用于美国的前端平台。
Doesn't seem like the end of the world either, and it only applies to US front ends.
它并不适用于协议本身。
It doesn't apply to the the protocol itself.
它明确不适用于非托管钱包。
It specifically does not apply to non custodial wallets.
它也不适用于托管在美国境外的前端平台。
It doesn't apply to front ends that are hosted outside of The United States.
所以这也不是世界末日。
So also not the end of the world.
财政部还有一些额外的特别措施，这些措施如何落实和使用可能会令人担忧。
There's some additional special measures for the treasury department that depending on how those are sort of cashed out and and how they're used could be concerning.
但就妥协而言，这已经不算最糟的了。
But, you know, as far as, like, compromises go, it's it's not the worst.
所以我认为我们在开发者保护方面仍然处于不错的位置。
And so I think we're still in pretty good shape on the developer protection side.
我觉得它做得相当不错。
I think it does a pretty good job.
它并不是我原本会写出来的版本，但总比没有好得多，而且我认为它确实能防止至少 Samurai Wahle 的起诉。
It's not exactly what I would have written, but it's so much better than nothing, and it really, I think, would have prevented the the, at least the Samurai Wahle prosecution.
还有，特立尼达起诉案中的几乎所有部分，如果不是全部的话，也能被避免。
Also, almost all, at least, of the Trinidad and prosecution, if not the entire thing.
这是一种能为在美国运营的非托管商业模式提供长期稳定监管清晰度的措施。
And it's the type of thing that would give sort of longer term durable regulatory clarity to noncustodial business models operating in The United States.
所以我觉得这很好。
So I I think it's good.
如果我们把这条线定为：如果你不控制用户资金，你就可能是资金传输者，那么法案就会在这里生效。
Where we would turn on the bill is if that line where, you know, like, if you don't have control of user funds, you're could be a money transmitter.
对吧？
Right?
如果这段措辞被删掉了，那么对于比特币而言，这个法案就完全是坏的。
If if that language goes away, then then the bill is net bad for as far at least as far as Bitcoin goes.
我们已经讨论了好几个月，我们最担心的是代币分类带来的权衡——这对风投和代币发行方的经济影响最大，因为该法案将代币发行的大部分权力从证交会转移到商品期货交易委员会，这使得在美国筹集加密风险投资变得容易得多。
And we've talked about for months now, the thing that we are most concerned about is a trade off between the token classification, which makes the biggest economic difference to the VCs and token issuers, which is, you know, the bill puts a lot of authority with the CFTC instead of the SEC over token launches, which makes it much easier to raise Crypto VC in The United States.
作为比特币支持者，我觉得我们对这个不太在意。
Like, as Bitcoiners, I I think we care less about that.
用这些来换取开发者保护，这会是我们的底线，我们真的想避免这种结果。
A trade of that stuff for the developer protections, you know, would be sort of our red line, and and we really wanna avoid that outcome.
而正是在这种情况下，我们会认为一个糟糕的法案比没有法案更糟。
And and that's where we would start to talk about a bad bill is worse than no bill.
我们现在不是这种情况。
That's not where we are now.
这是Coinbase的说法。
That's what Coinbase is saying.
所以，所谓‘没有法案总比坏法案好’这种口号。
And so the sort of rallying cry of, like, no bill is better than bad bill.
好的。
Okay.
这并不是一个坏法案。
It's not a bad bill.
对吧？
Right?
真的不是。
It really isn't.
我们仍然保留了所需的核心内容，这正是我们关注的底线。
Like, we'd still have the core of what we need, and and that's that's the sort of red line that we would be looking out for.
关于你提到的查克·格拉斯利写给银行委员会的那封信，说BRCA很糟糕，助长了恐怖主义之类的。
In terms of you know, you mentioned this letter that Chuck Grassley sent to the banking committee saying that the BRCA is terrible and facilitates terrorism and stuff like that.
目前我认为这并不预示着任何特别的事情即将发生。
I don't right now think that that is a harbinger of anything in particular to come.
这看起来像是与伊丽莎白·沃伦联手策划的，而她本人之前提出了38项修正案，主要目的是摧毁BRCA。
Like, it seems like this was orchestrated with Elizabeth Warren who, you know, herself before 38 amendments to the bill mostly killing about killing the BRCA.
我认为，就像开发者保护对我们来说是红线一样，对行业其他部分，包括Coinbase来说，这也是红线。
I think that just like the developer protections are a red line for us, they are a red line for other parts of the industry, including Coinbase.
Coinbase方面，你知道的，亚瑟，已经公开表态了。
Coinbase has, you know, I don't know, on the record, Arthur.
我们听说他们也承诺会放弃对开发者保护的支持。
We've heard that they have committed to walking over the developer protections as well.
所以，我认为问题在于，我觉得在稳定币收益方面根本不可能达成协议。
And so if there's a like, think I the problem is I don't think there is a deal to be had on stablecoin yield.
我认为银行在这方面不会让步。
I don't think the banks are gonna budge on that.
看起来Coinbase不会让步。
It's not looking like Coinbase is gonna budge.
如果这两者中有一个会发生，那将是Coinbase在这上面让步。
If one of those two is gonna happen, it's gonna be Coinbase budges on it.
但我看不到一个世界，在那里会用稳定币收益来交换开发者保护。
But I don't see a world where there's gonna be a trade of, like, stablecoin yield for developer protections.
我认为业界和共和党议员们都非常支持这一点，每次我们与他们会面时，他们都表示理解开发者保护这个问题。
I think there's a lot of support from the industry and, you know, and Republican lawmakers, every time we've met with them, they say they understand this issue of developer protections.
我认为他们不会在这上面让步。
I don't think they're gonna budge on this.
所以，你知道，会不会在最后一刻，大家开始审视自己的立场，觉得这件事可能通不过，但如果我们放弃开发者保护，至少能获得我们的合法ICO，或许还能找到一条推进之路，比如拉到更多民主党支持来强行通过，即使稳定币问题悬而未决？
And so, you know, could it be a last minute thing where, you know, people start looking at their bags and being like, well, this thing isn't gonna pass, but, like, there's a path forward where we can ram it through even with the stablecoin issue if we, you you know, we can get some extra Democrats if we throw the developer protections out the window, at least we get our legal ICOs.
有可能。
It's possible.
我只是觉得我们现在走的不是这条路。
I I just don't think that's the path we're on right now.
肯，有什么要补充的吗？
Ken, anything to add?
有的。
Yep.
是的。
Yeah.
我只是觉得，在某种程度上，这再次说明银行业需要在这里承担责任。
Just I think that on some level, like, this is yet again, like, the banking industry needs to be held accountable here.
让我们从反面开始说起。
Like, let's just start from the back side.
我们是世界上唯一一个没有即时支付系统的国家。
We're the only country in the world that doesn't have, like, instant payments.
这很有趣。
It was interesting.
布鲁金斯学会的亚伦·克莱因做了一份报告。
There was Aaron Klein from Brookings did a a report.
在美国，使用支票兑现服务的70%的人其实都有银行账户。
70% of people in The United States who use like check cashing services have bank accounts.
我觉得日本在七十年代就已经实现了直接即时结算。
So I think Japan had direct instant settlement in like the seventies.
英国肯定在2008年就完成了这项系统。
Certainly The UK, I think, finished it up in 2008.
我认为这背后有一种赤裸裸的自私，扎克的描述很准确——银行抵制支付系统的货币化，是出于保护主义心态。
So think there's some sort of naked selfishness, think Zach sort of characterized it correctly, protectionism as to why the banks continually resist monetization of payment rails.
是的，我知道银行每年靠透支费就赚了数十亿美元。
Yeah, I know they make billions of dollars a year on overdraft fees for people.
支票兑现行业每年通过向人们收取20美元的费用来兑现工资支票，即使他们已经有银行账户，也赚了数十亿美元。
The check cash industry makes billions of dollars a year charging people $20 to cash their paychecks even if they have bank accounts.
我知道，我们需要一个运作良好、服务于经济利益的银行体系。
I, you know, and find me and I understand that we need to have a functioning banking sector that works and serves the interest of economy.
我不是在主张我们全面转向狭义银行体系，但华盛顿确实有很多人讨论狭义银行，我知道这会让银行游说团体吓坏了。
It's not I you know, I'm not advocating we, you know, we move to full narrow banking, but there is a lot of talk about narrow banking in DC, and I know that scares the hell out of the banking lobby when people start talking about narrow banking as an example.
但你想想，找一个合理的、有说服力的理由来说明，对于普通美国人来说，稳定币的收益是坏事——他们的支票账户年利率只有0.1%，而他们却可以持有USDC这样的稳定币，获得目前大约3.5%的利差收益。
But, you know, find me an argument, a reasonable cogent argument that stablecoin yield for your average American is a bad thing when their checking account gives them point 1% and they can hold USDC as an example, and earn whatever the spread is they're sharing with that 3.5%, whatever it is now.
这显然违背了《天才法案》在推动全球美元化方面的初衷。
And it certainly flies in the face of the intent of a Genius Act in terms of global dollarization.
想象一下，世界上任何地方的泰达币持有者都能与泰达公司分享这笔收益。
Mean, imagine a world where a holder of Tether anywhere in the world could split that yield with Tether.
这种产品的市场需求将是绝对无法满足的。
The demand for that that product would be absolutely insatiable.
要知道，世界上绝大多数人永远无法接触到任何能产生收益的金融产品。
These are know, most of the world will never ever have access to yield to a yield bearing product.
想象一下，如果你能在钱包里持有泰达币，并获得1.5%的收益，与泰达公司按基点平分利润。
And imagine a world where you could hold Tether in your wallet and get, you know, and and get 1.5% on it, you know, split the difference with basis points with Tether.
这种需求将会是无穷无尽的。
It would be the the demand would literally be endless.
将是无底洞般的。
Would be bottomless.
人们会使用它，这理论上正是《天才法案》的意图所在——促进全球美元化，保护美元，而且你知道
People would use it, which theoretically is part of the intent for Genius Act is to is to facilitate dollarization across the world, protect it, and, you know
顺便说一下，目前的利率是3.5%左右。
And by the way, the rate out right now on it's 3.5% or something like that.
持有USDC的收益率超过3%。
It is over 3% for holding USDC.
所以这比你从零售银行账户中获得的收益好太多了。
And so this is just vastly better than you're getting as a, you know, retail bank account.
是的。
Right.
所以我认为，再次总结一下，回到扎克描述的方式，这其实就是保护主义。
So I think, again, sort of wrapping up, sort of coming back to how Zach described it, it is protectionism.
这个行业一直抵制支付领域的革新，抵制更新支付基础设施。
The industry's resisted payment, you know, resisted updating the payments infrastructure.
这只是银行业抵制让你们、我以及每个美国人更轻松地使用合理支付系统的一个新章节，这些系统甚至可能让我这样的普通人获得收益——尽管这会损害他们自身的利润。
This is just another chapter in banking industry resisting making it easier for you and me and every American to use payment rails that make sense, that maybe even, God forbid, I'm able to profit from because of flies that face their own bottom lines.
肯，接下来该怎么做？
Ken, what's the next step here?
显然，本周末本应有一个调整，但被推迟了。
Obviously, there was supposed to be a markup later this week that got postponed.
你觉得这个调整还会进行吗？还是在这之前还有一些步骤要走？
Do you think that's still gonna happen, or is there some steps, you know, between now and then before?
我认为你会看到下一波来自银行的美人鱼，来自广告委员会。
I think you'll see the next mermaids out of bank out of out of the ad committee.
我认为广告委员会接下来就会行动。
I think that's I think I I think the ad committee will be next up.
我下周有一些与广告委员会成员的会议，是他们主动安排的，因为他们觉得需要听取反馈。
I do have some meetings next week with ad committee members, They sought these meetings out for a reason because I think they're looking for feedback.
他们想要的是找到方法，把他们认为想要的东西与行业连接起来。
What they're looking for is ways to bridge what they think they want with industry.
因为同样，有一些民主党人希望带头。
Because again, there are some Democrats that want to lead.
阿尔瑟布鲁克斯参议员一直最公开地谈论这件事，因为她已经投身于这场风波中。
Senator Alserbrooks has been public most public about it because she's been, you know, she's been you know, she she jumped into this foray.
怀登参议员和卢米斯参议员共同支持这项法案，是有原因的。
There's a reason why senator Wyden cosponsored this bill, senator Lummis.
这并不是因为他反加密货币或反对对吧？
It's not because he's anti crypto or anti right?
不是的。
It's not.
而且还有其他情况，你知道，我再说一遍，把人曝光出来并不公平。
And there are other and, you know, again, I it's it's not that's not fair to dox people.
但参议院农业委员会里有几位民主党参议员，他们有兴趣探讨，有没有办法绕过这个问题？
But there are a couple there are some senate Democrats on the ag committee who are interested in figuring out, you know, is there a way around this?
让事情先平静一下。
Like, let the dust settle.
所以我们拭目以待吧。
So we'll see.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我就是，我真的不知道。
I I I just I don't know.
很难说。
It's hard to tell.
很难说，因为谁知道会发生什么呢？
Like, it's hard to tell because who knows what the hell is gonna happen?
我就真的不知道。
Like, I just I don't know.
这就是为什么人们在预测市场上赚钱或亏得一塌糊涂，因为一切都太波动了。
Like, this is this is why this is why people get rich and get broken in prediction markets because, like, everything's so freaking volatile.
我真的不知道。
I I don't I honestly, I don't know.
现在，我根本不知道该把我的十万美金投到哪里。
Right now, I I I would not know where to, like, put my 100,000 SaaS.
展开剩余字幕（还有 337 条）
我不知道把它放哪儿了。
I don't know where I put it.
说实话，我不确定我到底是投了‘是’还是‘否’。
Honestly, I'm not sure if I put them in yes or no, like for real.
明白了。
Gotcha.
好吧，我想人们只能继续关注，看看我们下周会聊什么。
Well, I guess the people are just gonna have to tune in and see what we talk about next week.
点个赞吧。
Smash that like button.
是的。
Yeah.
我
I
我会赌70比30，认为它会失败。
I would bet I would I would do seventy seventy, 30 odds it fails.
好的。
Okay.
对。
Yeah.
然后，在它失败之前有没有什么步骤，还是说我们就直接把它叫停？
I And then are there steps before it fails, or it's just, like, we we just halt it in our tracks?
我认为它最可能失败的方式是通过稳定币收益。
I think the most likely way it fails is now over stablecoin yield.
我认为另一种失败的方式是，如果我们挺过了那一步，之后会因为利益冲突而失败。
I think the other way it could fail is we get past that, and then it dies over conflict of interest later on.
好的。
Okay.
好吧。
Alright.
我们继续吧。
Let's move on.
这是一场关于清晰度的非常深入的讨论。
That was a pretty in-depth discussion on clarity.
扎克，白宫那边有些新闻。
Zach, there was some news from the White House.
我们上周聊过这个。
We talked about this last week.
有一篇弗兰克·科巴的文章称，司法部已经出售了他们从武士钱包开发者那里没收的比特币。
There was an article from Frank Corba that, you know, supposedly, the DOJ had sold the Bitcoin that they seized from the Samurai Wallet developers.
我们得到了确认。
We got confirmation.
我想今天早些时候才得知情况并非如此，文章里还提到一些细节，关于武士钱包开发者在认罪后被迫签署的内容。
I guess it was earlier today that that was not the case, and there was, you know, some details in there about, you know, what the Samurai developers were forced to sign after their, you know, pleadings.
所以，是的，我们来聊聊这件事。
So, yeah, let's let's talk about that.
那里到底发生了什么？
What kind of went down there?
这些头条新闻为什么会出来？实际情况到底如何？
Why were these headlines coming out, and and what's the actual situation?
是的。
Yeah.
我想我们上周已经讨论过这个了。
So I think we talked about this last week.
我们早就知道这件事，但比特币杂志在1月5日刊登了弗兰克·科瓦的一篇文章，公布了萨莫拉伊案被告与政府之间的没收协议，该协议允许法警清算比特币。
We've been aware of this for a while, but Bitcoin Magazine came out with a story by Frank Corva on January 5, basically publishing a forfeiture agreement between the defendants in the samurai case and the government that allowed the marshal service to liquidate Bitcoin.
弗兰克·奥比特当天在推特上转发了帕特里克·维特的推文，并评论说：我们正在调查此事。
The you know, Frank Orbit tweeted out Patrick Witt that same day, quote tweeted saying, we're looking into this.
而今天，我们听到了帕特里克的更新。
And then today, we heard, from Patrick saying, you know, update.
我们已从司法部获得确认。
We've received confirmation from DOJ.
萨莫拉伊钱包被没收的数字资产并未被清算，也不会根据SBR行政命令进行清算。
The digital assets forfeited by Samurai Watt have not been liquidated and will not be liquidated as per the SBR executive order.
这些资产仍作为SBR的一部分保留在政府的资产负债表上，这很有趣，我认为是个好消息。
They remain on the government's balance sheet as part of the SBR, which is interesting and I I think good news.
而且，据我猜测，司法部并没有像我们之前以为的那样公然违反行政命令。
And and, you know, the DOJ, I guess, is not just flagrantly violating the executive order in the way that we thought they were.
这立刻引发了一个问题：那么那份没收令到底意味着什么？
Now that raised the immediate question of, okay, what was that forfeiture order about?
于是我们向一些政府联系人询问，得到的答复是：司法部此举本质上是采取了一种双重保障措施，那份协议赋予了法警处置比特币的权利，而被告无法对此提出异议。
And so we sort of asked some of our government contacts, and the answer we got was this was the DOJ basically preserving their rights as sort of like a belt and suspenders measure that what was going on is that agreement gave the Marshall Service the right to liquidate the Bitcoin, and the defendants couldn't contest that.
这相当于他们提前放弃了可能针对政府的诉讼理由，但这并不影响行政命令的效力——司法部明白，由于行政命令的存在，他们不能处置比特币，因此他们没有这么做。
It's it's sort of them foreclosing a cause of action they would maybe have against the government, but that doesn't speak to the executive order and that the DOJ understood that it could not liquidate the Bitcoin because of the executive order, and so it didn't.
所以我认为这既是好消息。
So I think that's both sort of good news.
你知道，虽然金额不大，但象征意义很好。
You know, it's a small amount of money, but it's good symbolically.
而且我认为重要的是要明白，在类似Samurai Wallet的案件中，司法部认为自己受行政命令约束，并没有所谓可以不保留比特币的特殊理论。
And, you know, I think that is important to know that in cases like Samurai Wallet, the DOJ views itself as bound by the executive order, and they don't have some sort of out there theory as to why they they don't have to hold on to Bitcoin.
我认为这里最有趣的是，我也很想听听你的看法，但这件事实际上是行业里的人——弗兰克·科瓦，研究所的朋友——提出来的，他对此深感担忧。
I think the the most interesting thing here, and kinda I'm also curious to hear your, you know, your thoughts on the matter, but that basically, a, you know, this was surfaced by, you know, someone in the industry, Frank Corva, you know, friend of the institute, with, you know, serious concern of, hey.
我们在三月收到了来自行政命令的这项政策。
We had this policy come down in March from, you know, executive order.
这正是我们整个社区所欢呼的事情。
This is, you know, something that we celebrated as a community.
对吧？
Right?
主要是这样。
Mostly.
也不是所有人都这么认为。
Not everybody.
我得这么说。
You know, I'll say that.
但从政策角度来看，我们确实对此感到兴奋，因为……
But something that we were excited about from a policy perspective of, hey.
美国政府将不再出售任何比特币。
The US government will no longer sell any more Bitcoin.
法警局将不再出售比特币。
The Marshall Service won't be selling Bitcoin.
然后有人担心，他们真的卖过比特币吗？
And then there was this concern of, hey, did they actually sell Bitcoin?
还有资金转入Coinbase Prime，大家都很疑惑：这到底是怎么回事？
And there was the transfer to Coinbase Prime, and everyone's like, what's going on here?
而且我们很快收到了白宫的回应，说：
And the fact that we got a response from the White House you know, quickly saying, hey.
我们正在调查此事。
We're looking into this.
然后，我想，十一天后，他们对这个问题给出了答复：
And then, you know, I guess, eleven days later, an answer to the question of, hey.
这里到底发生了什么？
What happened here?
而这个问题的答案，实际上与之前公布的政策是一致的。
And the answer to that question being, you know, sort of in line with the policy that that was shared.
我只是觉得，这对任何有疑虑的人来说都是一个很好的迹象，也表明了政府对这一问题的重视程度。
I just think that's a really good sign for anyone who is concerned and, you know, also is evidence of the seriousness that the administration is is looking at this issue with.
所以，扎克，你说得对。
So, you know, again, Zach, you're right.
虽然涉及的金额相对较小，但从象征意义上讲，我认为这实际上非常重要，确实揭示了白宫对此事的立场。
It's relatively small amount of money, but symbolically, I think it's actually really important and does sort of expose the the perspective of the White House on this.
肯？
Ken?
是的。
Yeah.
不。
No.
我认为他们是认真的。
I I think they are serious.
我的意思是，现在仍然有很多愈合的过程，来自那些战斗创伤和创伤后应激障碍，比如实验室里发生的事情，还有上一届政府的种种问题。
I I I mean, there's a lot of, like, still healing going on over from the from the from the battle scars and the and the PTSD from, you know, the lab, whatever, you know, from the previous administration things that have happened.
还有像Arkham Intelligence这样的风险，我认为最初在开源领域推出的公开可用的预算分析平台。
And it's also the risk of, like, you know, Arkham Intelligence where I think the sort of the original initial moves in open source sort of, like, publicly available, budget analytics platform.
任何人都可以查看这些钱包，或者这些钱包很可能已经被标记了，任何人都能看见资金的动向。
So anybody can look at it in a lot of wallets or, you know, these wallets are probably labeled there, and anybody can look at it and see the move.
所以，这正是为什么能够实时看到这些情况发生的另一面。
And so that that's, you know, that's the that's the, sort of the the the, sort of the other side of of of why being able to see this stuff happen in real time.
人们看到资金流向被识别为Coinbase Prime的钱包时，会自动假设他们要卖出。
People see stuff move to wallets that are identified with Coinbase Prime and automatically they you assume they're gonna sell.
这个假设并不算糟糕。
Wasn't a bad assumption.
再说一遍，尽管所有这些创伤后应激障碍，我们都在继续愈合。
Again, although all the, sort of the PTSD and, you know, we're all still healing.
你知道的？
You know?
才过去一年。
It's only been a year.
我们都在愈合中。
We're all still healing.
但我觉得在白宫方面，是的。
But I think on the on sort of the White House side, I I yeah.
我们上周聊过这个，大家都做过一些推测。
I I do we we chatted about this last week and, know, we all sort of speculated.
我仍然一直在想，像高盛十四局和陆军服务部那样的机构，有没有勇气说不。
And I'm still always wondering, like, what, like, GS fourteenth and Marshall Service would have had, like, the the the guts to be like, no.
不。
No.
不。
No.
卖了它。
Sell it.
我就是没法离开这里。
I just can't get out of here.
转接。
Transfer.
我不知道，因为像这种事在如今的华盛顿特区做起来太冒险了。
I don't know without, like you know, it's risky to do that kind of stuff in DC these days.
但不管怎样，是的。
But, anyway, yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
然后，当然，我们负责政策的负责人以一种清晰连贯的方式弄清楚了到底发生了什么。
Then then then, of course, our head of policy figured out exactly what happened in a in a, you know, in a coherent way.
但就白宫这一边而言，我可以肯定地告诉你，他们仍然非常重视SBR中所列出的所有内容。
But I and on on side of the White House, I I can tell you for a fact, they are still I mean, everything that's been outlined in the in the SBR, they take it very seriously.
他们仍然在探索如何以预算中立的方式为SBR增添内容，无论是通过立法还是其他方式。
They're still interested in ways we can we can actually add to the SBR in a way that's budget neutral, whether that's through legislation or otherwise.
所以我觉得，和其他所有事情一样，你知道，总统每天、每年能用来讨论这个问题的时间是有限的。
So I I think, I think like everything else, like, you know, the the president only has so much so many hours in the day in the year to talk about this issue.
但他有帕特里克·维特和他的团队，他们时时刻刻都在思考这个问题。
But, you know, he has Patrick Witt and his team who think about this issue all the time.
是的，你知道，他们一直忙于市场结构和其他各种事务。
And yes, you know, they're they've been, I think, really busy with market structure and everything else.
但我认为，人们应该高兴地听到，所有这些讨论仍在继续，总统最初的意图——当然，承诺已经做出——但最初的意图依然未变，他们时时刻刻都在思考这些问题。
But I think that people should be happy to hear that all these discussions are still happening, that the president's initial intent, certainly the promise is made, but the initial intent remains intact, and they're thinking about these things all the time.
很好。
Cool.
好的。
Alright.
这原本不在我们的初始清单上，但本周早些时候，我们发布了一封信。
This wasn't on our initial list, but earlier this week, we released a letter.
而且，肯，实际上可能是你寄出了这封关于最低限度豁免的信，或者发了邮件。
And and, Ken, you were the one who actually probably mailed the letter out or emailed it on the de minimis exemption.
对吧？
Right?
之前出过一份草案立法，但基本上只针对稳定币设立了一个最低限度豁免。
There was some draft legislation that came out, but basically that that there was only gonna be a de minimis exemption on stablecoins.
我个人对此做了一些研究。
And, you know, I did a little bit of research personally on that.
事实上，这在某种程度上是合理的。
It it is actually, you know, somewhat warranted.
我认为，如果你持有大量稳定币，而它们发生小额波动——确实会这样——这显然不应该是应税事件。
I think there's some questions about, you know, if you're holding large amounts of stablecoins and they move sort of fractionally, which they do, you know, that obviously shouldn't be a taxable event.
但最低限度豁免的真实意图，是让比特币和其他大型网络代币更有可能成为交易媒介，比如你用比特币买咖啡时，不应该为此缴税。
But but the real intent of the de minimis exemption was to make Bitcoin and, you know, other large network tokens a, you know, sort of more of a medium exchange possibility, right, that if you buy your coffee with Bitcoin that you're not being taxed on that.
所以，肯，你能简要说明一下这封信的内容、收件人是谁，以及BPI接下来推动此事的步骤是什么吗？
So, Ken, can you just briefly outline what was in that letter, who it was sent to, and, you know, again, like always, kind of what the next steps are for for BPI on on pushing that forward?
是的。
Yeah.
我们这么做是为了你们，因为我会去参加各种会议，看到大家因为用萨特买PepeT恤就被贴上逃税者的标签，我真的很难受。
And, like, we're doing this for you guys because, you know, I I go to the the the conferences, and I I don't I hate to see, like, everybody being, you know, being risk labeled a tax cheat when they buy, you know, the Pepe T shirt with with your with your sats.
说实话，我不知道。
And, like, I don't know.
我当然假设你们已经向国税局申报了，但我实在不愿意看到普通用户仅仅因为买了PepeT恤、帽子之类的东西就被针对。
I, of course, assume that you're telling the IRS about that, but I hate to I hate to think about about Clems being, Clems being beat up just because, you know, they're buying, buying Pepe T shirts or hats or whatever.
所以，这对整个社区来说确实是个重要问题。
So, this actually is an important issue for the community.
但回到这个议题上。
But, back to this issue.
是的，来自俄亥俄州众议院筹款委员会的马克斯·米勒议员一直在推动这件事，他们提出了一项法案，而这个最低豁免额度只针对稳定币，理论上稳定币属于类现金工具。
So, yes, Congressman Max Miller from Ohio, from Ways and Means has been kind of leading this on the House side, and they released a bill and this the de minimis exemptions focus all on stable coins, which, you know, theoretically are cash like instruments.
里面还有一些细节，比如如果稳定币脱锚了之类的情况。
And there's some like there's some details in there about, you know, if they de peg and that kind of thing.
但它的本意是，这只适用于稳定币。
But the the intent of it is like this is only for, stable coins.
马克斯·米勒在这些问题上总体来说相当不错。
And and and Max Miller is generally speaking pretty pretty good on these issues.
所以我们打算花些时间与他以及参议院的同事们沟通，讨论他们提出的这个方案。
That's why we're, you know, we're gonna spend some time and talking to him and and senate colleagues about about what they put together here.
但他们忽视了一个问题，我们甚至都不用深入探讨为什么我们认为比特币也应该被包括在内——我们确实这么认为。
But what they've ignored and so we without even going down the rabbit hole of, like, why we think Bitcoin should be should also be included, which we do.
我们已经提出了这个观点。
We made that case.
但法案忽略了一个更根本的问题，那就是网络费用。
But there's a more fundamental issue that the bill ignores, and that's network fees.
大多数稳定币都运行在其他区块链上，比如以太坊、特隆或索拉纳，而比特币上也有。
Most stablecoins are running on altcoin rails, whether it's Ethereum or Tron or Solana, And there is on Bitcoin as well.
但总体而言，大部分交易流量都发生在这些其他网络上。
But generally speaking, most of the traffic is on these other rails.
但即使在闪电网络上，你也需要支付网络费用。
But even on Lightning, you do pay a network fee.
金额很小，想准确核算这个可不容易。
It's small, and good luck accounting for that.
当你在闪电网络上使用稳定币时，你支付的2聪手续费之类的费用。
Your 2 SAT fee or whatever you pay when you use stablecoins on a light network.
所以我们不得不去参议院那边做一些普及教育。
So we've had to go up to the Senate side and do some educating.
好的一点是，人们实际上对了解网络如何运作感兴趣。
And the good part is people are actually interested in learning about about how networks work.
人们之前并不真正理解。
People didn't really understand.
再说一遍，这些人都是参议院金融委员会的支持者。
Again, these are people who support like the Senate Finance Committee.
他们并没有经历过市场结构和技术创新所带来的那种情感冲击。
They're not, they, a lot of them were, you know, have been spared the sort of the emotional violence of market structure and, and, and genius.
他们就是不明白，这些网络到底是如何运作的。
And they just don't understand, you know, how, how these networks work.
所以上周我和我们的高级顾问凯尔·奥尔尼一起去了那里，你们很多人都认识他，向他们解释了现实情况：稳定币实际上是如何在这些网络上——比如比特币和其他网络——进行交易的，以及每一个稳定币交易都必然涉及两种资产：一种是稳定币，另一种是你所使用的链的原生代币。
So we sort of had I was up there last week with, Kyle Olney, one of our senior advisors, many of you know him, talking to them about the reality, how stablecoins are actually transacting on these networks, on Bitcoin and others, and how and necessarily every stablecoin transaction is a is a transaction that involves two assets, a stablecoin and whatever the native token or whatever chain you're using.
这对一些工作人员来说简直是新鲜事，而他们将在参议院这一法案的走向中扮演非常重要的角色。
That was literally news to some staffers who were in who were who will be very important in what where this bill goes on the senate side.
再说一遍，我不太喜欢和国会山上的那些政策文件专家打交道，但这些工作人员将会深度参与参议院版本的法案及其审议内容。
Again, I don't like to I don't like the docs people I meet with on the hill, but these are these are staffers who will be intimately involved in the senate version and what they take up.
所以，不管怎样，我对他们对这一观点的接受程度感到相当乐观。
So anyway, but I I that I was actually I felt pretty good about their receptiveness to that.
我认为我们必须从我们这边，也就是比特币这一方，认真思考一下我们希望推进到什么程度。
I think we have to think through on our side, on the Bitcoin side, you know, how far we want to go.
我们不妨这么来说。
The we'll call it this way.
在比特币上争取最低限度豁免的可能性范围有多大？
What is the realm of the possible on getting de minimis exemptions for Bitcoin?
当然，这对我们来说是首要任务。
That, of course, to us is our priority.
人们需要为他们的以太坊汽油费缴税吗？
Should people have to pay taxes on whatever their Ethereum gas fees?
我不这么认为。
I don't think so.
这并不是主要关注点。
It's not a primary concern.
但不幸的是，立法通常是用宽泛的笔触起草的。
But, unfortunately, you know, legislation is is is written with with a broad brush.
所以，在这个问题上，我们都是一条船上的人。
So and and and on this issue, we are all in the same boat.
我认为这周我们只是进行了初步的会面。
So I think this was just our initial our initial meetings this week.
关于这一点，还需要大量的普及工作。
There's gonna be a lot of education about that.
我们起草了一封非常好的信。
We are we authored a great letter.
我们很幸运，有一位在这里工作过参议院和国会的人，他懂得如何表达这个问题以及使用他们的话语体系。
We were lucky to have someone here who worked in the senate and and in congress and kinda knows how to frame this and the language they speak.
我们把这封信发给了众议院财政委员会和参议院金融委员会的成员。
And we sent that out to members of the, Ways and Means Committee on the house side and members of the Senate Finance Committee.
这些委员会将负责处理加密货币税收立法。
These are the committees that will be handling the crypto tax legislation.
我们对众议院方面提出的初步草案并不满意。
We're not happy with the initial draft that came out of the House side.
我认为，这是他们希望推出的一项最容易通过的法案。
I think it's, it's, it was their hope of a best bet bill they could pass.
不幸的是，这份草案并未全面理解这些机制的实际运作方式。
Unfortunately it was not, it was not comprehensive in understanding how these things actually work.
因此，我们这边会努力争取，尽可能争取到更多有利内容。
And so, you know, on our side, we're going to be looking, to get to frankly, to get as much as we can.
如果只是网络费用，我的意思是，我不希望我们陷入这样一种局面：交易达成，仅网络费用免于最低限额豁免。
If it's just network fees, I mean, I kind of don't want to find us in a position where the deal is okay, Just network fees are exempt from de minimis.
这算不上什么胜利，尤其是如果它们被这样定义的话。
That's not really a win, especially if they're defined as that.
但我认为他们已经醒悟了，意识到目前写的这个法案根本行不通。
But, I think there's they they're the the light bulbs are on and they've realized the bill as written just isn't isn't gonna work.
所以在某种程度上，这算是一个良好的全新开始。
So on some level, it is it's it's a good fresh start.
我得到的信息是，这个众议院法案只是一个起点。
And the message I got was this house bill is just a starting point.
所以请帮助我们理解这个问题，与我们合作找到一个更好的解决方案。
So help us understand this and work with us to find a better a better a better solution.
扎克，有什么理由相信市场结构的放缓会影响税收立法吗？
Zach, any reason to believe that the market structure slowdown will impact the tax legislation?
我想这取决于情况会糟糕到什么地步。
I guess it depends how ugly this gets.
它们是相对独立的问题，但就像肯之前提到的，国会里对加密货币立法已经感到非常疲惫了。
And they're they're pretty separate issues, but, I mean, like Ken mentioned before, there's significant fatigue in congress about crypto legislation.
之前关于天才的争议太多了。
There's so much drama around genius before.
这在参议院产生了相当大的后续影响。
That had a pretty significant after effect in the senate.
比如，我们开的很多会议中，大家都觉得被拖着去处理天才这件事。
Like, a lot of meetings that we had, people are like, they felt dragged across the line on genius.
你知道，这不是很多人关心的问题。
You know, this is not an issue that that that many people care about.
如果国会的看法是：好吧。
And if the, you know, view in congress is like, okay.
我们花了大量宝贵的时间和精力去理解这个复杂难懂的问题。
Like, we spent a lot of valuable time and effort understanding this, like, difficult to understand thing.
但在最后一刻，业界却无法达成一致，干脆说：算了吧，别管这个领域了。
And then in the last moment, you know, the industry couldn't get along with each other and, you know, sort of said, never mind, you know, to hell with this whole sort of area.
是的，你可能会看到这种情况。
Like, yeah, you you could see something like that.
但我认为这取决于政治局势究竟如何。
But I think it depends on just, what what the politics look like.
接下来的一两周至关重要，大家是否会以诚意重返谈判桌，愿意做出一些妥协呢？
The next week or two, I think, is gonna be incredibly key You know, does everyone come back to the table in good faith, you know, and willing to make some compromises?
是否有一方坚持提出根本不可接受的条件，比如撤销开发者保护措施？
Does one side or the other sort of insist on absolute nonstarters, like rolling back developer protections?
你知道的。
You know?
我们很快就会知道。
We'll know soon.
是的。
Yeah.
我问这个问题的原因是，我们曾与马莎·布莱克本参议员办公室的安德鲁·古菲举行过一场活动，他说：看。
The reason I ask, we we hosted an event with with Andrew Guffey from senator Marsha Blackburn's office, and he said, look.
这里至少在工作人员层面存在一个相当明确的层级结构，大家都有共识，那就是：嘿。
There's a a pretty, pretty clear hierarchy here, you know, at least common understanding at the staff level of, hey.
你知道，市场结构是第一位的，然后可能是关于税收的立法，之后我们才能讨论战略比特币储备的问题。
You know, market structure comes first, and then probably a piece of legislation on on taxes, and then we can have a conversation about the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
所以我只是在回想这一点。
And so I was just, you know, remembering that.
但没错，我认为你说得对，这取决于当他们再次开始讨论这个问题时，各方的态度有多强硬。
But, yeah, I think you're probably right that it depends on how how bloody faces are by the time they start talking about that again.
肯，我不知道你有没有什么要补充的。
Ken, I don't know if you have anything to add.
是的。
Yeah.
但你知道，布莱克本参议员是参议院中在这个问题上的另一位领袖。
But just you get that's I mean, senator Blackburn is another leader on this issue in in senate.
她任职于参议院财政委员会，我认为大企业应该支持她的工作，支持她在委员会中的努力，因为我觉得她一定会为我们关心的重要事项发声。
She's on senate finance, and I think, you know, big quarter should be ready to support her work and what she's doing on the committee because I I think she she will she will I think we can count on her to speak for things that are important to us.
对。
Yep.
同意。
Agreed.
好的。
Okay.
今天最后一个话题。
Final topic for the day.
这可能不完全与比特币相关，但我们有一些人能很好地谈论这个话题。
Again, might not be might not be completely Bitcoin related, but we've got some some folks who who can talk to this nicely.
那我们来深入探讨一下。
So let's let's dig into it.
伊朗。
Iran.
肯，我不知道你是否愿意给我们做一个大致的概述，说明目前的情况。
Ken, I don't know if you wanna just give us kind of a a high level summary of what's going on.
我之所以提到这一点，是因为《Decrypt》上有一篇好文章，引用了BPI高级研究员布拉德利·雷特勒的话，谈到了比特币作为人道主义技术的用途。
The reason I I really brought it up, there was a a good article in Decrypt that was citing, you know, a BPI senior fellow, Bradley Rettler, on, you know, Bitcoin's use as a sort of humanitarian technology.
但同样，我觉得这个话题很相关，我们深入探讨一下吧。
But, again, I think this is topical, so let's dig into it.
肯，你能先给我们做个开场吗？
Ken, can you get us started here?
所以任何观察者都知道，过去十年里，伊朗断断续续地经历了多轮抗议活动。
So so any observer knows Iran has gone through waves of protests episodically over over the past decade.
我认为这些是迄今为止最激烈的一次，主要是由伊朗社会中广泛的不满情绪所驱动的。
These are the most, I think, the most intense, they were were driven by and, again, I think there's large levels of dissatisfaction, obviously, in Iranian society.
我认为当你遇到冲击时，比如这次引发抗议的冲击，就是银行倒闭，以及伊朗里亚尔的急剧贬值。
And I think when you have, when you have, sort of, shocks, and I think the shock that sparked this were bank failures and, and, right, just an absolute rapid decimation of the Iranian real.
这引发了抗议活动。
It sparked protests.
结果发现，这些银行倒闭主要是由于系统性腐败造成的，这并不令人意外。
It turns out the the these bank failures were largely the result of corruption in the system, to be not you know, to be surprised.
这是一个非常腐败的体系。
It's it's a very corrupt system.
但我认为令人震惊和令人惊叹的是，这些抗议活动的激烈程度和持久性。
But I think what is I I think what has shocked has been surprising and amazing to watch is both the the ferocity and the, and the endurance of the protests.
两天前，互联网断了，那正是事情开始失控的时候。
And then, what was two days ago, the Internet went out, and that's, of course, when, you know, when when the ball started flying.
我认为，部分问题是人们低估了政权在伊朗内部所维持的支持力度。
I think people, I think part of the problem, is people underestimate, the level of support the regime maintains inside Iran.
我不认为有50%的伊朗人支持政权，但确实有一部分少数群体支持。
I don't think 50% of Iranians support the regime, but a sizable minority do.
独裁国家不会因为银行倒闭而垮台。
And I, you know, authoritarian countries don't fall because of, you know, bank failures.
它们是因为其他原因而崩溃的。
They fall for different reasons.
我们才刚刚开始看到镇压行动的结果报告。
And I, you I think we're just starting to see reports of the results of the crackdown.
成千上万的人被安全部队杀害。
Thousands of thousands of people who have been, were killed by, by security forces.
当然，最大的新闻是特朗普总统威胁要介入并发动军事打击。
And the big story, of course, though was, you know, president Trump threatening, threatening to intervene and to conduct military strikes.
这又是一把双刃剑。
That's, you know, that that's, again, a double edged sword.
你知道，该打击谁？这会带来什么后果？
You know, who do you strike, and what does that do?
你要推翻这个政权吗？
Do you decapitate the regime?
你要针对领导层，尤其是领导人吗？
Do you try to target the leadership, the leader?
这其实是一种高风险的赌注，尤其是在本周大规模镇压发生后，政府方面已经退缩，不再考虑介入。
You know, it's sort of a it's a it it is a risky risky gambit, and that's you know, and he sort of as the after the major crackdown happened this week, the administration backed away from, from intervening.
尽管海湾阿拉伯国家与伊朗之间存在敌意，但还有许多地区性的担忧。
And there's also a lot of regional concerns despite, animosity between sort of the the Gulf Arab states and Iran.
他们不希望看到的是，你需要记住，该地区几十年来一直冲突不断，而事实上，海湾国家目前状况相当不错。
What they don't want is they there's again, you need to keep in mind that there's been, you know, decades of conflict in in the region, and frankly, the Gulf States are doing quite well right now.
他们不希望看到地区冲突破坏阿布奎基的稳定，更不用说还会破坏他们在现代化社会方面取得的一些进展。
And what they don't want is a regional conflict to upset the Albuquerque and to really well, not only that, but to upset some of the some of the progress they've made in modernizing their societies.
因此，我认为我们的阿拉伯朋友对军事打击持很大担忧和犹豫，担心打击的形式会带来什么后果，这也正是总统最终选择退让的原因。
So I think there's a lot of concern and hesitation among our Arab friends in the region about strikes, what they look like, such that the president ultimately backed away.
但我们拭目以待。
But we'll see.
是的，我会。
I I I yeah.
我想这个故事的关键在于，这些抗争是否能持续下去，但说起来容易，真正走上街头直面安全部队或被围困时，当公交车停运、人们被屠杀时，谁又能真正坚持呢？
I I'll be I think the the story will be whether these are these are endured, but, you know, it's it's it's easy to say you should endure, but it's it's hard to be the one that has to go on the street and face face the RGC or the besiege when there's, like, you know, when, you know, when the bus are off and they're and they're and they're they're murdering people.
所以我不确定。
So I don't know.
我的意思是，我认为这将标志着伊朗的一种演变。
I I mean, I I this is I I do think it it it's sort of going to enshrine an evolution in Iran.
我们都清楚，伊朗是一个由哈梅内伊大阿亚图拉领导的伊斯兰神权国家。
I mean, we all know Iran to be sort of the Islamic State, the theocracy headed by Ayatollah Khamenei.
现实是，越来越由伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）领导这个国家，不仅从军事角度，还掌控着自然资源和企业。
Reality is increasingly, it is the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that leads the country not just from a military perspective, but they control natural resources or businesses.
他们是伊朗主要的经济行为体，强大且有动力。
They they are the primary economic actor, in Iran, and they are powerful, and they are motivated.
所以我的感觉是，这将进一步巩固国内权力结构的演变。
So I I I my my sense is this will just further enshrine, an evolution of power inside the country.
我认为你不会看到有多少人真的离开。
I think you're not gonna see I told how many go anywhere.
但真正控制权归谁，这一点会改变整个计算方式。
But the question of who actually controls it, then that changes the calculus.
如果你的愤怒只针对一个人，那相对容易解决。
If you're if you're all your rage is against one person, that's fairly easy to to undo.
但当你面对的是一整套装备精良、能力强大、且在广大民众中有支持基础的体系时，情况就困难得多，也显然会更加血腥。
But when you're you know, when you have an entire system, a, a well equipped, capable, system that is defending itself, that has that does have support among a large swath of population makes it much makes it much harder and, you know, makes it makes you know, if you're gonna see that kind of revolution, it's gonna make it harder and, clearly, it's gonna be bloodier.
所以我很想知道，在接下来几天里，这些抗议活动能否持续，以及会以什么速度发展。
So I'm it'd be interesting to see over the next couple of days, whether these protests endure and and what at what pace.
你知道，政权还得应对镇压，但如果你像他们那样，在全国各地用吊车吊死人，就会带来风险——当人们感到绝望时，他们会做出极端的事情。
You know, the regime also has to you know, there's crackdowns, but they there's also a risk if you start, as they do, hanging people from cranes all across the country, you know, that risks you know, when people feel desperate, you know, they do desperate things.
所以我们拭目以待吧。
So we'll see.
我真的很想观察，抗议运动——这是一个分散的运动——与政权权力结构之间会形成怎样的新平衡。
I'm I'm really curious to watch sort of the with the new with the balance emerges between the protest movement, which is a fragmented movement.
对吧？
Right?
这些只是希望自己的国家变得更好的伊朗普通人，而另一边则是政权的权力结构。
These are just Iranian people who just want to see their country do better, and the and sort of the power structures of the regime.
但确实，这真是一段了不起的经历。
But, yeah, what what amazing it's been an amazing story.
我知道，我认为这将是一场权力的演变。
I, you know, I I I do think this is the you're gonna see an evolution of power.
不过，情况可能并不会变得更好。
It might not be better, though.
你知道，我不确定让伊朗革命卫队作为公开、完全掌控伊朗的强势力量对任何人来说是好事，但这还有待观察。
You know, I don't I don't know that having, you know, the IRGC, you know, as the assertive sort of acknowledged, fully controlled commander of Iran is good for anybody, but that remains to be seen.
你能稍微描述一下，美国最初介入的公开理由是什么吗？
And can you just describe a little bit, like, what the stated reason is that The U United States would get involved in the first place?
对吧？
Right?
显然，他们后来撤回了。
Obviously, we they, you know, pulled that back.
并没有明确的政权更迭政策。
There's no, like, stated policy for regime change.
对吧？
Right?
没人公开说过这一点。
No one no one said that out loud.
没人谈论过这件事。
No one's talked about it.
是的。
Yeah.
你可以找到任何一个合理的政策制定者，他们都不希望看到这个政权继续存在，仅仅因为它的本质，但这绝对不是美国的政策。
You can find me find me a reasonable a reasonable policymaker that would not like to see the regime changed, right, just because of what it is, but that that's certainly not US policy.
如果这个政权摇摇欲坠，你是否觉得，去推它一把的诱惑确实存在？
Now if the regime is teetering, do you know, are are you are the the temptation to to help it along is certainly there.
我认为白宫可能确实对当时发生的暴力程度感到担忧。
I do think the White House probably had actual concerns over, like, the level of violence that was going on.
在这个国家，有很多伊朗裔美国人，他们在那里有家人。
There are, I mean, there are a lot of Iranian Americans in this country, right, who have family there.
伊朗人经常往返于两国之间，对吧？
Iranians travel back and forth routinely, right?
我们的政治关系或许已经破裂，但美伊之间依然存在着社会和家庭纽带，这些联系自1979年革命以来一直延续至今。
The there's no way our political issue is destroyed, but there are still social and familial links between Americans and Iranians, you know, that have that have endured since the since the, you know, since the revolution in seventy nine.
所以，我认为在华盛顿，普遍有一种共识，认为当时发生的事情是不可接受的。
So, you know, I I think there is sort of a consensus in DC that what was happening is not acceptable.
而且，我觉得总统可能只是想借此呼吁他们停止，不要让全面镇压持续数周，变得极其残酷。
And, you know, I think the president maybe this was just a rallying to get them to to to stop and to not go go through the fall through the entire full crackdown, which could last for weeks and be really, really, really nasty.
但，是的，这仍然是常态。
But, yeah, it remains routine.
我想，我今天刚看了新闻。
I think, you know, I there I just read the news today.
在最初的镇压浪潮之后，抗议活动又再次升级了。
There are protests evolving again after after sort of the initial the initial wave of crackdown of crackdowns.
所以我们拭目以待吧。
So we'll see.
我觉得，伊朗政府在世界上几乎没有朋友，这是有充分理由的。
I I I do I do think there's you know, Iran doesn't have many friends in the world for, you know, for good the Iranian government, I should say, for good reason.
所以，如果没有明确的政策指令要推动政权更迭，我认为这种情况不会发生。
So, you know, but absent absent a policy edict that we're gonna engage regime control, which regime change, I don't think it's going to happen.
我认为他们会寻找方法来限制政权镇压抗议活动的暴力行为，或许还能迫使它做出一些让步，因为你可能会看到伊斯兰革命卫队中有人站出来说：好吧，我们会放宽一些政策。
I think there's they'll be looking at ways to restrain the regimes, violence the regime uses to, to, suppress the protests and maybe to extract some kind of some kind of concessions because you could see a version of the IRGC emerge that says, okay, we will liberalize some things, right?
伊朗女性现在，尤其是在德黑兰，你只要上YouTube就能看到，你知道，法律和运气，许多女性已经不再佩戴头巾，但总有一种阴云笼罩在头顶，他们随时可能拿这个来对付你，还有其他一些事情，但或许有一些社会改革是伊朗革命卫队某些成员能够接受的，但这还有待观察。
Iranian women are now, and certainly in Tehran, you can just go to YouTube, you see it, you know, law and luck, many of them are just, you know, have banned the hijab, but it's always just a sort of demonclease hanging over your head that they can decide to use it against you and and and some other things, but there are some social reforms that maybe elements of the IRGC could live with, but that remains to be seen.
扎克，显然，这发生在委内瑞拉局势之际，你知道，我认为特朗普政府的外交政策正受到质疑。
Zach, obviously, this comes at a time, you know, with the Venezuela situation where, you know, I think the Trump admin foreign policy is is drawn into question.
我想听听你对这个问题的看法，但更广泛地说，如果你认为政权更迭会发生，这将如何影响该地区的地缘政治格局。
I'm curious on your thoughts on that, but more broadly, on your thoughts on what happens if there's regime change, how that plays into the kind of geopolitical situation in in the region.
对吧？
Right?
我认为，再次强调，这种中等强国的问题虽然在伊朗可能不那么直接，但在整个地区确实会重现。
I think, again, that kind of middle powers question comes back maybe not quite as directly with Iran, but definitely in the region.
所以我只是很好奇，你对此持什么观点。
So I'm just kinda curious where you land on that.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为答案是我们对伊朗的情况并不清楚，这大概也是为什么我们尚未看到任何行动的原因。
I think the answer is we don't know in Iran, and that's probably why we haven't seen action.
我的意思是，这周初看起来美国即将在伊朗采取行动。
I mean, it really looked early this week like The United States was going to do something in Iran.
我们撤离了在卡塔尔的基地。
We evacuated our base in Qatar.
所有欧洲国家都发布了从伊朗撤离的命令。
All the sort of European countries issued evacuation orders in Iran.
看起来我们当时正处于临界点。
It looks like we were sort of on the precipice.
报道称，当地海湾国家领导人以及以色列领导人对特朗普说：听好了。
The reporting is that both local sort of, you know, Gulf state leaders and sort of Israeli leaders said to Trump, listen.
嘿。
Like, hey.
我们认为，你计划对军事目标实施的打击不会引发政权更迭。
We don't think the, you know, strikes on military targets you have planned are going to precipitate regime change.
而且，我们只是觉得，短期内这不会有什么好结果，反而会弊大于利。
And, like, we just don't think it's gonna, like, turn out well in the short term, and you're gonna do more harm than good.
所以，特朗普表示，他之所以撤回行动，是因为伊朗同意不进行一定数量的处决。
And so, know, Trump has said that he's pulled back based on Iran agreeing not to do a, you know, a certain number of executions.
我认为这更可能是因为他与实地盟友的对话。
I think it's probably more about the conversations he had with our allies on the ground.
但我认为真正令人担忧的是，接下来会发生什么？
But I think the real concern is, like, what comes next?
你知道，自上世纪七十年代以来，我们就没有经历过伊朗现在的这个政权和这位领导人。
And, you know, it's been since, you know, the early seventies that we've not had this particular regime and this leader in Iran.
这是一个相当不稳定的局面：政府是一种极权主义的伊斯兰政权，而大量民众却完全不认同这种体制。
And it's a pretty unstable situation where you have the government, which is sort of a, like, totalitarian Islamist regime, and then you have a lot of the population that just does not identify with that at all.
他们更接近于历史上波斯帝国的特征。
They they're much more similar sort of the the, like, historical Persian empire.
如果我们实现政权更迭，会不会出现一个更民主的国家？
And if we have regime change, is there going to be a more democratic country that emerges?
会不会回归到像革命前我们曾拥有的那种沙阿式的另一种极权政权？
Is there gonna be a return to a different type of totalitarian regime like the Shah that we had before the the revolution?
会不会是一个不同的伊斯兰主义政权上台？
Is it going to be a different Islamist regime that takes over?
还是会像伊拉克和叙利亚在那些政权垮台后那样，陷入某种危险的无政府状态？
Or is it gonna be some sort of dangerous form of anarchy like we saw in Iraq and Syria in the aftermath of of those regimes falling?
我们并不知道。
Like, we don't know.
伊朗在很大程度上是我们地区的主要对手。
And, you know, Iran is sort of like our major enemy in the region.
从很多方面来说，看到伊朗人民获得自由将是件好事。
And and in many ways, would be great to see the Iranian people free.
如果能出现一个更友好的政府，让我们能够重新调整盟友关系，与以色列达成安全协议，与海湾国家建立经济合作，同时让伊朗与美国关系走上正轨，那将再好不过。
It would be great to see a friendlier government that allows us to sort of reposition sort of our allies and, you know, and have sort of our security deals with Israel and our economic deals with the Gulf States and then Iran, sort of on on a right foot with The United States.
但政权更迭存在真正的风险，可能会搞砸。
But there's real risk there to sort of botching regime change.
是的。
Yeah.
伊朗本可以成为一个超级大国。
Iran could be Iran could be a superpower.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，它拥有能源。
I mean, it has energy.
它是一个连续的古老文明。
It has it is is a contiguous ancient civilization.
你知道，我住的地方，我认识的每个人几乎都是医生或者股票经纪人。
You know, I I so where I live, like, every Ronny I know is like a doctor or, like, a stockbroker.
你知道吗？
You know?
我的意思是，那里有大量的智力资本和实际资本，我认为这些可以回流，把那个地方变成一个了不起的国家。
I mean, there's a lot of intellectual and actual capital, I think, right, to flow back and turn that place into, you know, an amazing country.
工具都在那儿，但其他方面，你知道，有时候光有这些还不够。
The tools are all there, but everything else, you know, that's sometimes that's not enough.
明白了。
Gotcha.
好的。
Okay.
我觉得已经讲得差不多了。
I feel like that covers it pretty well.
我们这里还差几分钟。
We're a couple of minutes short here.
不知道大家还有什么要补充的吗？还是今天就到这里？
Don't know if y'all have anything to add, or should we call it a day?
我觉得可以结束了。
I think we can call it.
我觉得现在最重要的事情是市场结构法案。
I think the big big story right now is the market structure bill.
我觉得这件事正在发展中，等事情进一步明朗后，我们会再做更多讨论。
I think that is unfolding, and so we'll have we'll have much more to say as that as that happens.
我们确实开了办公室。
And we did open up our office.
对吧？
Right?
我们这周正式启用了办公室。
We had our official office open this week.
是的，我们开了。
We did.
是的，我们开了。
We did.
这非常令人兴奋。
That was very exciting.
我们举行了办公室开业仪式。
We had a office opening ceremony.
参议员卢米斯也出席了。
We were joined by senator Lummis.
有一些她剪彩的精彩照片。
There's some great pictures of of her cutting the ribbon.
而且，确实，这对BPI来说是个非常激动人心的时刻。
And, yeah, very exciting time for us at at BPI.
团队正在壮大。
Team's growing.
事情进展顺利。
Things are going well.
所以
So
是的
Yeah.
现在华盛顿特区也有比特币圈了。
And D DC has a Bitcoin scene now.
我的意思是，那里有一个不错的本地社群。
Like, I mean, there's a there there's a good local club.
我们和比特币区的朋友们一起。
We are our friends at Bitcoin District.
如果你在当地，一定要去了解一下他们。
If you're local, you should check them out.
他们举办各种各样的活动。
They do all kinds of events.
但如果你在华盛顿特区，一定要来Pumpkin。
But if you're in DC, you gotta come to Pumpkin.
去看看吧。
Check it out.
如果你穿过餐厅走到酒吧后面，就会看到比特币政策研究所。
And if you walk through the restaurant to the back of the bar, you'll see the Bitcoin Policy Institute.
好了，各位。
Alright, folks.
这周就到这里。
That'll do it for this week.
我们下周再见。
We'll see everyone next week.
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