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我之所以坚信叙事跟随价格，而不是价格跟随叙事，尤其是在四年周期这个话题上，是因为比特币并不垄断四年周期这个规律。
The reason why I'm a big believer in narrative follows price and not price follows narrative in terms of the four year cycle is Bitcoin does not have a monopoly on the four year cycle.
标普500指数长期以来，差不多每四年就会触底一次。
The S and P five hundred for a long time bottomed approximately every four years.
对吧？
Right?
你回看五十年代、六十年代、七十年代和八十年代就能发现这一点。
You can look at this in the fifties, sixties, seventies, and eighties.
我能回头找出它每四年触底一次的具体原因吗？
Can I look back and and figure out the reason why it bottomed every four years?
不能。
No.
我说不出具体原因，但这让我觉得，总会有事情发生，然后人们会找人背锅。
I couldn't tell you why, but it makes me think that something will happen, and people will blame them.
大家好，欢迎回到《比特币杂志》播客。
Hey, everyone, and welcome back to the Bitcoin Magazine podcast.
我是主持人布兰登·格林。
I'm your host, Brandon Green.
今天的节目，我们请来了医生。
Today's show, we have the Doctor.
来自IntoTheCryptoverse的本杰明·考恩。
Benjamin Cowen from IntoTheCryptoverse.
他是关于比特币市场非常活跃的内容创作者。
He is a prolific content creator about the markets as it pertains to Bitcoin.
他对市场、周期以及它们之间的相互影响有很独特的见解。
And he has very interesting views on the market and the cycles and how it's all kind of interplaying with each other.
他对过去四两年里发生的事，以及2019年出现的一个相似现象，也有很特别的看法。
He has a very interesting view just on what we've seen over the past four years or two years and an interesting parallel that we saw in 2019.
这是一场非常有收获的对话。
And so this is a very informative conversation.
我真的很享受这次深入了解他的过程。
I actually had a great time really getting to know him.
这是我第一次和他面对面聊天。
It was my first time talking to him in person.
所以我很高兴能和大家分享这次对话。
So I'm very excited to share it with you.
好了，不多说了，各位，欢迎本杰明·考恩博士。
And without further ado, ladies and gentlemen, doctor Benjamin Cowen.
欢迎各位收听《比特币杂志》播客。
Welcome, everybody, to the Bitcoin Magazine podcast.
我是布兰登·格林。
My name is Brandon Green.
我是这档节目的主持人。
I'm your host.
今天，我们请来了来自IntoTheCryptoverse的本杰明·考恩。
Today, we have the Benjamin Cowen from IntoTheCryptoverse.
本，最近怎么样？
Ben, how are doing?
还不错。
Doing pretty well.
有点累，但总体来说很好。
A little bit tired, but for the most part, great.
是的。
Yeah.
累有时候反而是好事，尤其是在眼下这种摇摆不定、迟迟不肯反转的熊市里。
Well, tired can always be a good thing, especially in times like these, this kind of bumbling bear market we've been in that doesn't seem to want to make up its mind.
我们当然可以好好聊聊比特币市场最近的走势。
I know we can definitely talk a lot about what the Bitcoin kind of market has been doing.
但在那之前，我想先给大家简单介绍一下你。
But before we get into that, I wanted to just kind of give people an introduction to you a little bit.
你之前在桑迪亚国家实验室做过博士后，也给NASA做过研究，2019年就开始做比特币的YouTube频道。
You know, you were obviously a postdoc at Sandia, you're a NASA researcher, you started your YouTube channel about Bitcoin in 2019.
是什么让你下定决心，几年前就全身心投入比特币这个领域？
What made you sort of take that jump in and and made you go all in on Bitcoin, you know, a few years ago now?
是的。
Yeah.
我大概是2011年对加密货币开始感兴趣的。
I guess I got interested in crypto back in 2011.
但那时候我感兴趣的并不是加密货币本身。
But when I got interested in crypto, it was not cryptocurrency.
而是密码学。
It was more so cryptography.
对吧？
Right?
我本科读的是数学，那时候得选一些选修课。
So my undergrad was in math and we were we had to take electives and whatnot.
大三那年，我选了密码学这门课。
And so my junior year of college, the elective I chose was cryptography.
就是通过这门课，我才了解到比特币的。
And then through that, I learned about Bitcoin.
接下来的两个周期里，我把能犯的错全都犯了一遍。
So then over the next, like, two cycles, I made all the mistakes you could possibly make.
我到现在还是会犯错，但那时候真是把所有错都尝了个遍。
And I still make mistakes, but back then I made all the mistakes.
到了2019年，经过一番摔打，学了不少教训——尤其是盲目分散投资到各种山寨币，结果发现这些错误最终都慢慢回到了比特币身上。那时候我就想，不如干点啥吧。
And then in 2019, after kind of learning a lot of lessons the hard way, especially with like, you know, diversifying a lot into into Altcoins and whatnot and kind of seeing like the mistakes that led to and how they just bled back to Bitcoin over a longer period of time, I like, you know what?
干脆开个YouTube频道，聊聊我这些年学到的东西。
Like, let me let me, like, make a YouTube channel and and talk a little bit about some of the stuff that I've learned.
但我的出发点完全是学术性的。
But it was it was all from, like, an academic perspective.
对吧？
Right?
因为我开这个频道的时候，正在做高能量密度物理的博士后研究。
Because I started it, again, while I was doing a postdoc in high energy density physics.
我清楚记得，2019年6月，我在俄勒冈州波特兰参加一场高能量密度物理的会议。
I I actually vividly remember I I was at a, a conference, a high high energy density physics conference in Portland, Oregon in 2019 in June.
我做完报告后，当晚就回到酒店房间录了第一个YouTube视频。
And I gave my presentation, and then that night, I went up into the hotel room and recorded my first YouTube video.
而且
And
你还记得当时讲的是什么吗？
Do you remember what it was about?
第一个视频的内容？
First video?
好像是某个山寨币吧，我记不太清了。
Some altcoin, I think.
老实说，我真不记得了。
I I honestly don't even know, honestly.
我最早做的几期视频，都是些对市场的随机想法。
So some of the first videos I did were on on sort of, like, random thoughts on the market.
我一开始根本没提比特币，是因为有人告诉我，讲比特币是极差的建议，而且市场上已经到处都是人在谈比特币了。
And then one of the reasons I didn't even talk about Bitcoin at first was because I was told it was very, very bad advice, but I was told that the market was already saturated with people talking about Bitcoin.
所以我应该关注别的东西。
So I should focus on other things.
于是我先做了，心想：等等，这完全说不通。
And so I did it first, and I was like, you know what?
这简直是胡说八道。
This is this is complete nonsense.
比特币就是整个市场。
I mean, Bitcoin is the market.
你明白吗？
You know?
它带动了整个牛市。
Like, it it leads the entire bull market.
只要比特币进入熊市，其他所有东西都会跟着跌。
If Bitcoin's in a bear market, it takes everything down with it.
你懂的。
You know?
在很多方面，它就是整个加密市场的风向标。
Like, it is it is the market in a lot of ways, the crypto market.
所以我一开始就开始聊比特币。
So started talking about Bitcoin.
等我真开始讲比特币之后，我的频道才真正开始增长。
And then once I did start talking about Bitcoin, that was when my channel really started to to grow.
我之前在桑迪亚国家实验室做博士后，时间是从2018年到2020年。
And so, yeah, I I I worked at, Sandia, doing a postdoc for from, I guess, 2018 through 2020.
那时候我一边做博士后，一边运营YouTube频道。
And then while I was doing that, I was also doing the YouTube channel.
到了2021年，我就觉得，实在没法兼顾了。
And then by 2021, I was like, yeah, I can't do both anymore.
对吧？
Right?
那会儿市场变化太疯狂了，再加上我刚做完两年博士后，刚被提拔了。
Like I there was so much there was so much crazy stuff going on in in markets and it was I I had just gotten promoted at my job from a postdoc because I was a postdoc for two years.
后来我成了实验室的高级科学家，但只干了一个月左右就辞职了，专心做这个。
I then became a a senior scientist at the lab, but then I only worked as a senior scientist for, like, a month or two before quitting and then just doing this.
说实话，这很难，因为我一辈子都在为这份工作努力，但生活总会给你来点意外。
So, you know, it's hard because I worked my entire life to get that job, but, you know, life throws your curveballs.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
不过你还是可以自称本杰明·考恩博士，这也挺好的。
Well and and you can always refer to yourself as doctor Benjamin Cowen.
确实不错。
So that's nice too.
我很好奇。
Well, I'm curious.
你一上来就几乎每周发布八九个视频，这种更新频率真让人佩服。
So you jumped in and basically ever since you've been publishing like eight or nine videos a week, I mean, it's an impressive cadence.
你到底是怎么做到每周发八九个视频的？有什么秘诀吗？
What's what's the secret behind kinda how you are able to to do so much content?
你的流程是怎样的？
What's the process?
这些年你学到了哪些经验，才让内容达到这么高的水准？
Like, what have you learned kind of over the years to just, like, elevate to to such a excellent level?
我一直在想，读博士到底值不值得？
So I think so I I've always gone back and forth in my head as to, like, was the was the PhD worth it?
你说是吧？
You know?
毕竟花了我五年时间。
Because, I mean, it took five years of my life.
对吧？
Right?
我可是整整熬了五年。
Like, I was working on it for five years.
我的博士是核工程方向的。
My PhD is in nuclear engineering.
我经常回头想，那时候真有必要吗？
And I always look back, I'm like, you know, was that really necessary?
但比起读研之前，我读研后的敬业程度根本不在一个水平上。
But when I think to my work ethic before grad school, it was nowhere near what it was after I had finished grad school.
我导师对学生的期望非常高。
And so, my advisor in grad school expected a lot from his students.
那时候真的挺难的，因为你得不断发论文。
And at the time, that was really hard, you know, because you're you're you're expected to publish.
毕业的时候，我已经发表了挺多论文了，现在在谷歌学术上还能查到。
And when I graduated from grad school, I had over I still, I mean, I still have them, on Google Scholar.
你随便在谷歌学术搜我的名字，就能看到我的论文列表。
You know, anyone can, like, type in my name on Google Scholar and see the publication list.
我记得还没毕业时，就已经有至少十篇学术期刊论文了。
Like, had I think I had at least 10 academic journal papers before I even graduated.
或者是九篇或十篇，毕业后又陆续发表了几篇。
Or it was like nine or 10 and then some work shortly after I graduated.
那时候我的博士研究是陶瓷材料的分子动力学模拟，再结合一种叫原位透射电子显微镜的技术。
And back then So, so my PhD was in molecular dynamic simulations of ceramics and and then complementing that with something called in situ transmission electron microscopy.
我们基本上会用辐射处理陶瓷材料，这些材料用在各种核应用里，比如核反应堆内部等等。
So, we basically would irradiate ceramics, which are used in, you know, different types of nuclear applications, like inside nuclear reactors among other things.
然后我们会把辐射后的实际结果和模拟数据做对比。
And then we would irradiate them and then compare it with simulations.
这样做的目的是省钱，通过模拟先筛选出值得做的实验，避免盲目做大量昂贵的实验。
And the the idea is that you you save money by simulating the stuff and that way you can reduce the number of experiments you have to run by figuring out through the simulation what you actually want to experiment with because this stuff's really expensive.
对吧？
Right?
所以那时候我得修一大堆课程。
So I was expected, you know, I had to take all these courses.
顺便说一句，我读核工程博士其实更难，因为我的本科专业根本不是核工程。
And by the way, for me, to do the PhD in nuclear engineering was even more difficult because my undergrad was not in nuclear engineering.
我本科读的是数学，差两门课就能拿物理专业了。
My undergrad was in math, and I I was two classes away from a physics major.
最后我就只拿了物理的辅修学位。
I just ended up getting a physics minor.
后来我被研究生院录取了，心想，那这两门课也没必要非补不可了。
But then I got accepted to grad school, so I was like, there's no point in in getting those two final classes.
不如直接去读研吧。
I'll just go ahead and go to grad school.
多这两门课也没啥区别。
It's not gonna make a difference.
所以我得加倍努力，因为本科时根本没学过核工程的内容，而那又不是我的专业。
So, I had to work extra hard because I had to learn all the nuclear engineering stuff that I didn't really learn as an undergrad, you know, because that wasn't even my major.
于是我就得从头学起这个新领域。
So, then I was learning this new field.
他们还指望我发论文，平均每年两篇左右，第一年除外，那会儿主要是在打基础。
I was expected to publish, you know, essentially one or two pay, you know, like, I would say on average two papers a year with the exception of the first year when you're just kind of learning stuff.
所以我得拼命努力，毕竟得把课都pass了。
And so, I I had to work hard, you know, like I had to pass my classes.
还得通过资格考试。
I had to go through the qualifying exams.
要发表研究，还要在会议上做报告。
I had to publish research, I had to present that research at conferences.
感觉那会儿就是没日没夜地干。
I feel like I was just working nonstop.
后来当博士后的时候，因为是在国家实验室，压力没读研时那么大，至少没那么紧绷。
And so, then when I went to be a postdoc, I I like, I didn't feel like, it because it was with the you know, because it was at a national lab, like, didn't feel that same level of, like, pressure, I guess, is that I I did as a grad student.
所以有更多空闲时间做别的事，也就是那时候开始做YouTube的。
And so I I just had a little bit more time to to do other things, and, course, that's where the YouTube stuff came from.
我觉得我现在这么拼，本质上就是读研时养成的工作习惯。
So I feel like the reason I do it constantly is just because that is what my work ethic essentially became in grad school.
你懂的。
You know?
我当时就觉得工作是理所当然的，不做事、偷懒这种想法，我真的受不了，你知道吧？
Like, I was expected to work, and the idea of not working or just not doing stuff is is like, I don't like that, you know?
我可不想退休后就躺平四十年，啥也不干。
Like, I don't I don't wanna just retire and then do nothing for the next forty years.
我们花了很多时间——做视频是一方面，但我们现在有个平台，总想着怎么往里加内容，研究市场到底怎么运作，然后把这些发现用到视频里。
So, we spend a lot of time I mean, you know, making videos is one thing, but we obviously have a platform and, you know, we're always I'm trying to add stuff to that to try to figure out if there's anything any way that we can better understand how the markets are working, and then I use that to then make the make the videos.
说到底，这大概就是读研时养成的工作习惯留下的痕迹吧。
So, I guess it's just sort of a an artifact of of the work ethic developed in grad school.
这我能理解。
Makes sense.
没错，确实如此。
I mean, yeah.
在学校里，真正培养起来的不是具体的知识，而是一种工作态度，这一点再清楚不过了。
And it is it is definitely true that you can do different sort of things in school that institute, a work ethic more than anything it teaches you, you know, on any any single piece of information it teaches you.
我本科读的是化学工程，情况也完全一样。
I I did chemical engineering as my background, and and it's very much the same thing.
比特币里其实用不到多少化学工程的知识，可能在挖矿方面有点关联，但更多的是你学到的系统思维和工作方式，那种敬业精神确实很重要。
There's not a lot of kin chemical engineering in in Bitcoin, maybe a little bit in mining, but, otherwise, it's all about the the systems and the processes you learn and and, yeah, that that work ethic for sure.
我觉得工程学和上学本身教会了你如何思考，这真的是个特别重要的能力，值得去培养。
Well I do I do think engineering and just going to school in general teaches you how to think, which is a really I think a really good skill to to to learn how to to learn to have.
对。
Yeah.
还要非常注重事实，敢于持不同意见，一旦得出结论，就坚持到底。
And to be incredibly fact based and, you know, willing to sort of be contrarian and and, like, hey, I've arrived at this conclusion, and I'm going to stick with it.
早期在比特币领域，这确实是必备的素质。
And that's definitely something you needed early on in Bitcoin.
所以
So
你刚才提到市场这些事，
well, so you mentioned kind of talking about the markets and everything.
那咱们来聊聊市场吧。
So let's talk about the market.
对于那些还不太了解你的听众来说，虽然现在可能已经没几个人了，但还是简单讲讲你的经历吧。
For those of our listeners who are less familiar with you, which is probably a few and far between at this point, but maybe give us kind of the quick narrative.
你之前提到过2025年那种冷漠情绪，对吧？
I mean, talked about sort of this apathy talk, right, in 2025 that we saw.
能不能给大家简单梳理一下这一轮市场经历了什么？之后我们再从ETF推出、正好在减半前开始说起。
Give people your sort of quick narrative of what we've seen in this cycle, then we'll we'll say starting this cycle basically with the launch of the ETFs right before the halving.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得这一轮主要驱动力其实是怎么把更多资金吸引进市场，而不是在技术或应用上有多大突破。
I think this cycle is mostly driven by, like, how do we get more money into the market rather than, you know, improving things in a lot of ways.
但我认为很大一部分原因还是货币政策收紧了。
But I I I I think that a lot of it is due to tighter monetary policy.
比特币能掌控自己的事情，但没法左右整个市场的其他动向，对吧？
So, like, Bitcoin can control what goes on with Bitcoin, but it can't control what's going on everywhere else in the market, you know?
过去我们经历那么惨烈的熊市，比特币动不动就跌80%，其中一个原因就是人们把资金错配到了不那么靠谱的资产上。
And and one of the reasons we get brutal bear markets, at least we have in the past, where Bitcoin would drop 80%, you could argue it was because people would start to misallocate their capital into into, not as great assets.
对吧？
Right?
那时候就会出现大家说的‘山寨币季’，就是山寨币对比特币疯狂上涨的情况。
And that was when you would see these what people call alt season, you know, where altcoins are going crazy against Bitcoin.
比特币随后通常会用一整年的时间惩罚市场，因为人们迷失了方向，开始投机那些根本没什么长期价值的东西。
Bitcoin would then typically punish the market for a year because people lost their way, they started speculating into things they really shouldn't, you know, that that really didn't have any long term value.
我认为，纵观比特币的历史，我们已经经历过两次极度冷漠的高点。
I think the argument is that we've had two apathetic tops for Bitcoin throughout all of Bitcoin's history.
一次是2019年，但那次并没有对应四年周期的顶部。
One in 2019, which did not correspond to a four year cycle top.
对吧？
Right?
我们知道，比特币的重大高点出现在2013年第四季度、2017年第四季度、2021年第四季度，还有2025年第四季度。
So, we know that Bitcoin has had major tops in Q four twenty thirteen, Q four twenty seventeen, Q four twenty twenty one, and Q four of twenty twenty five.
而这些全都是狂热的高点，只有2025年这次不是。
And so, were all euphoric tops except for the one in 2025.
另一个非狂热高点出现在2019年。
The other non euphoric top was in 2019.
还有两点我想说一下，如果你们想看的话，我可以共享屏幕。
And the two thing and I can share my screen if you guys wanna, like, see what I'm talking about.
2019年和2025年的共同点是，当比特币见顶时，并没有资金轮动到那些高风险资产上。
But the the the thing that 2019 and 2025 have in common is when Bitcoin topped, there was no rotation into those high risk assets.
对吧？
Right?
就像之前狂热高点之后那样，根本没有资金流向山寨币。
Like, there was no rotation into altcoins like there were like there was after euphoric tops.
所以，像2019年这样的非狂热高点，市场并不会立刻崩盘。
And so, when you have a non euphoric top, as 2019 showed us, you don't really have like an immediate crash in the market.
对吧？
Right?
它只是慢慢下滑，随着关注度逐渐消退。
Like, it just kinda slowly goes down for a little while as interest kinda dissipates.
所以，现在的状况其实跟2019年见顶之后的那段时期很像。
And so, the argument is that the the the sort of sort of the timeframe after the 2019 top is kind of where we are now.
对吧？
Right?
2019年6月比特币见顶，量化紧缩到8月才结束。
Where Bitcoin topped in June 2019, quantitative tightening ended in August.
也就是说，比特币见顶比量化紧缩结束早了两个月。
So, Bitcoin topped two months before QT ended.
2025年也是，比特币10月见顶，量化紧缩12月才结束，同样是提前了两个月。
In 2025, Bitcoin topped in October and then QT ended in December, two months before.
那时候虽然也有降息，但力度不够，还不足以推动一场真正的牛市。
So, also back then, we had some rate cuts but not really enough to justify a full fledged bull market.
我觉得这背后的原因是，比特币和加密货币对货币政策的敏感度更高。
And I think the argument for that stuff is is the reason why is Bitcoin and crypto for, you know, it's more dependent on monetary policy.
对吧？
Right?
它对这些变化反应更敏感。
Like, it's more reactive to it.
比特币特别喜欢低利率。
Bitcoin really likes lower rates.
它特别喜欢货币宽松。
It really likes the money printing.
它特别喜欢这类政策。
It really likes that stuff.
最近我们看到，能源冲击和地缘政治冲突导致许多降息预期落空。
And so, as recently, we've seen, you know, these energy shocks, geopolitical conflicts, kind of pricing out a lot of these rate cuts.
我觉得这长期以来一直是比特币面临的宏观阻力。
And I I think that's just sort of a it's been a macro headwind, for Bitcoin for a while now.
我不是在期待比特币会突然崩盘，像有些人说的那样。
And so, I mean, I I I think that it's not like I'm looking for Bitcoin to have like an, like a crazy crash, you know, like it, like, like, you know, some people are calling for it.
但可以说，历史上熊市通常持续一年左右，比如2017年12月到2018年12月，下一个周期则是2021年11月到2022年11月。
But I think it's reasonable to say, look, historically, the bear markets last about a year, you know, and and the 2017, it was December December December 2017 to December 2018, and then the next cycle was November 2021 to November 2022.
所以我只是在猜，会不会就是从十月到十月这么个周期。
So, I was just speculating, hey, maybe this is just October to October.
不过反对这个说法的主要理由是，2019年那次根本没撑满一整年。
And I guess the biggest case against that is in 2019, it didn't have to last a full year.
但我还是觉得，2019年那次顶部没那么狂热，所以调整期这么短，是因为之前的牛市本来就没持续多久。
But I still think that I think the reason why the 2019 digestion phase after the non euphoric top was as short as it was, was because the bull market before that top was a lot shorter.
对吧？
Right?
那时候牛市才六个月，熊市最后也差不多是同样的时长。
So, the bull market was at six months, and then the bear market ended up being about the same amount of time.
这次时间稍微长一点。
This is a little bit longer.
对吧？
Right?
我是说，这次牛市发生在经济周期后期，持续的时间比2019年要长得多。
I mean, the bull market in sort of this late business cycle environment lasted a lot longer than it did in 2019.
所以我觉得，今年可能不会再创历史新高了。
And so, that's why I think we're just going to continue to see this sort of Like, I don't think we're gonna have all time highs this year.
我也可能搞错了。
I could be wrong.
对吧？
Right?
我确实有可能在这点上判断失误。
Like, I absolutely could be wrong about that.
通常来说，中期选举年市场都会重新调整，我觉得我们现在就处在这样的阶段。
But normally, midterm years are are are reset years in the market, and that's just where I think we are right now.
是的。
Yeah.
这个观点很有意思。
It's a very interesting thesis.
如果我要挑一个点深入探讨的话，我会说，你把比特币周期和宏观周期放在一起谈，这个角度挺特别的。
And, you know, if I were going to, like, wanna dig in in one place to start, I would say, you know, it's interesting your framing of sort of the Bitcoin cycle versus the macro cycle.
我很好奇，尤其是比特币早期，它的价格和表现完全取决于当时比特币自身的微观环境。
And I'm curious, like, obviously, especially early on in Bitcoin, Bitcoin's price, Bitcoin's performance was entirely guided by sort of the microenvironment of what was happening in Bitcoin at the time.
但我认为，大概从2018年熊市开始，这个关系就颠倒过来了。
And then I would posit that probably around the 2018 bear market, you know, beginning onward, that equation has sort of flipped.
尤其是在2021年牛市，还有现在的2025年牛市，市场明显更受宏观环境驱动，比特币自身的周期影响反而变小了。
It seems like in especially the 2021 bull market and now also in the 2025 bull market, we see much more driven and led by the macro environment and the Bitcoin cycle, say, it's had less of an impact.
对吧？
Right?
你觉得这种理解还算合理吗？
Do you think that that's a fair kind of, understanding?
你认为这个趋势会继续加强吗？
And and would you would you say that that trend will continue and amplify moving forward?
我觉得，在一个经济周期里，比特币完全可能经历好几个四年周期。
Basically, I think that you could have multiple four year cycles of Bitcoin within a single business cycle.
对吧？
Right?
所以，关于比特币的论点是，从2009年到2018年左右，其实根本没什么泡沫，当时也没人真觉得我们处在泡沫里。
So, the the argument for Bitcoin is, you know, from 2009 to 2000, like, '18 or so, we there wasn't really any bubble, like, our good there wasn't really a great argument that we were in a bubble.
对我来说，我是这么看的：我画了这张图，是关于商业周期的图表。
And for me, I the re the way I look at that is I look at this chart, it's like this business cycle chart that I've made.
其实就是标普500指数。
It's, it's just essentially the S and P 500.
下面有具体的公式。
You can see the formula down here.
公式是标普500除以失业率的平方，再乘以利率，再乘以美国年通胀率，最后用货币供应量做归一化处理。
It's the S and P 500 divided by the unemployment rate squared, multiplied by interest rates, multiplied by The US inflation rate year over year, normalized by the money supply.
当你看这张图时，就能清楚地看出过去所有的商业周期。
And so when you look at this, you can kind of visualize all the prior business cycles that we've had.
历史上唯一一次比特币出现类似小型商业周期波动的，是在疫情爆发前后那段时期。
And the only time in history where Bitcoin kinda had sort of a mini where where I went through sort of a mini business cycle was back in the, the pandemic era, like kind of going into the pandemic.
比特币在2019年见顶后，接着就迎来了疫情引发的经济衰退，但那时候根本没出现资金轮动。
And when Bitcoin topped over here in 2019 and then we went down into that pandemic induced recession, there was no rotation.
对吧？
Right?
当时比特币根本没有转向其他山寨币。
There was no rotation from Bitcoin into into Altcoins.
我们现在看到的，还有过去几年一直看到的，其实就是2018年、2019年那种情况的放大版。
And so what we're seeing now and what we've seen for the last several years is just a larger version of what we had, you know, back in 2018, 2019.
就是更大规模的重复。
It's just a larger version of it.
所以我觉得，比特币现在仍然在遵循这个经济周期运行，但到底是巧合还是有内在联系，比特币总是在该见顶的时候见顶，这一直是个争议点，去年大家吵得特别厉害，说如果人人都在预测四年周期，那它反而不会发生。
So I I think right now, Bitcoin is still operating it's operating within the business cycle, but whether it's a coincidence or whether it's not, Bitcoin keeps topping when it always tops, you know, and and that was, that was a huge argument that people got into last year was, well, if everyone's calling for the four year cycle, then it won't happen.
对吧？
Right?
它就不会见顶了。
And and it won't top.
可结果它还是见顶了，你说巧不巧？
And and then it topped anyways, you know?
这正是我想说的，每个周期大家都喜欢把事情想得太复杂，总想拖一拖，找理由说：这次不一样，得继续涨。
And and that was what I was saying is like, it's not like it's like every cycle people wanna overcomplicate it and and kick the can down the road and and say, well, this is why it has to continue.
每次都以为这次情况特殊。
This is why this time is different.
结果比特币还是涨到顶了。
And then Bitcoin tops anyways.
现在我们又陷入同样的思维模式，只不过换了个方向：大家觉得比特币会更快见底，因为这次是冷漠，不是狂热。
And so, now we're we're in sort of the same mind mindset, but on the other end of it where people are like, well, now, you know, Bitcoin will bottom sooner because of because it's hopped on apathy, right, rather than euphoria.
我对这种看法也不是完全不理解。
And I'm not completely unsympathetic to that view.
对吧？
Right?
我确实不是完全不同意。
I'm not.
但另一方面，我心里也有个声音，去年很多人明明看到顶了，就是不信它真是顶。
But I also there's also this, like, part of me, a big part of me that's like, alright, last year, a lot of people didn't wanna believe it was the top when it always was.
那如果今年晚些时候，我们又像往常一样跌到第四季度，会怎么样？
And so, what if later this year, we end up going down into q four, just like we always do?
我不确定会是什么原因。
And I don't know what the reason would be.
可能是又来了一次能源冲击，比如油价再次上涨。
I don't know if it would be due to, you know, another energy shock, maybe oil's going back up.
我也说不准。
I I don't know.
通胀可能还会继续上升。
Inflation could be going higher.
我真的不太确定。
I'm not really sure.
劳动力市场到现在还是挺稳的。
The labor market has still been holding up fine.
招聘和职位空缺都少了，但裁员也不多。
I mean, hiring is kinda low and and job openings are low, but layoffs are also low.
初请失业金人数现在低得惊人。
And initial claims are are are really, really low.
所以，现在还谈不上经济衰退。
So, it's not yet a recessionary environment.
我觉得，今年晚些时候，可能大家会开始担心这个，那会成为下一个焦点。
And so, think that'll be maybe that'll be the next scare is is people might be worried more about that later this year.
如果真那样，人们一担心，买比特币的人可能会减少。
And if they are, it could make it difficult to buy Bitcoin if people are worried about that.
不过我觉得，比特币至少在一段时间里，大概率还是会自己见底的，你知道吧？
But Well I think there's a good chance that Bitcoin would probably, at least for a while, just bottom anyways, you know?
我觉得比特币好像有种本事，能提前把宏观因素都消化掉，比别人早一步反应过来。
And and and I think Bitcoin maybe has a way of pricing that stuff in, like pricing the macro stuff in before it's obvious, you know, to everyone else.
有意思的是，如果让我回想一下这些事，得说明一下，我完全是凭记忆说的。
Well, you know, what's what's interesting about that is, if I were just gonna, like, think back and check me on some of this, obviously, is going from memory.
回想2022年和2038年的熊市周期，那时候都出现过突然暴跌的情况：2022年先是UST这个锚定资产出事，接着又是FTX崩盘。
But if I think back to both the twenty twenty two and the 2038 cycles in the bear market when you had those sort of like extra jackknife down moments, In 2022, you had one around the UST, the sort of anchor token, and then you had the second one around FTX.
2018年的时候，我记得价格一直稳在六千到六千五左右。
In 2018, I remember we were steady at like 6,500 or 6,000.
诺沃格拉茨在CNBC上说不会再跌了，结果真的就见底了。
Novogratz was on CNBC saying we're not gonna go any lower, and we bottomed.
但到了十一月、十二月，价格又突然暴跌了一波。
And then come, you know, November, December, we jackknifed down again.
我觉得那次下跌跟什么公开事件没啥关系。
I don't think that that was necessarily related to anything, like, public.
当时加密市场或者宏观层面也没出现什么实质性崩盘，虽然那会儿股市正好也跟着跌了一波。
Like, I don't think anything broke necessarily in the crypto market or in the macro market per se, although there was sort of like a stock downturn right around the 2018 kind of extra leg down.
再想想上一轮周期，2026年初，价格从九万块直接跌到六万。
And then I think about this past cycle, right, in earlier in 2026 where we kind of jackknifed from, like, 90 k down to 60 k.
我现在得仔细回想一下，但那次下跌跟宏观因素基本没啥关联，更多是市场普遍的恐慌和不安造成的。
And that I mean, now I'm having to really think back and question, but that didn't really correlate with a macro much of anything rather than just sort of a general fear and consternation around the market.
要说有什么触发点，反而是伊朗冲突升级的时候，价格反而见底了。
And then if anything, we bottomed right when the Iran can conflict bubbled up.
但在另一方面，我们其实表现出了韧性，尤其是在油价高企、其他经济领域普遍低迷的当下。
And on the other side of that, we've actually shown strength in the sort of high oil prices and some of the things that are miring the rest of the economy right now.
所以我很好奇，你是否认同——在熊市里，真正推动价格走势的其实是比特币和加密市场自身的叙事，而宏观背景只是提供一个大趋势？还是你觉得这种情况接下来会改变？
And so I'm curious if you would agree or if you would push back on whether it's almost the sort of Bitcoin and crypto market centric things that create the driving price action in the bear market, whereas the macro backdrop just becomes a general trend, or whether, you know, you think that that's gonna change upcoming.
你是怎么看这个问题的？
Like, how do you look at that?
我觉得目前你说得对。
I think for now, you're right.
说实话，对比特币来说，很多时候是叙事跟在价格后面走的。
I mean, I I think narrative follows price for for for Bitcoin in a lot of ways.
我们可以回看过去每一次市场下跌，比如2022年的FTX、Luna、Celsius这些事件。
Like, we could look back at every prior downturn in the market in, you know, in 2022, FTX, Luna, Celsius.
这些事情一出，大家就会说：‘看吧，这就是价格下跌的原因。’
I mean, all these things that went down and say, well, that's the reason why it went down.
2018年的时候，我们也能看到，当时ICO热潮退去，市场自然就迎来了调整。
And in 2018, we could look at, you know, the the ICO craze and and why that, you know, had to lead to a sort of a correction in the markets.
每个熊市我们都可以这么回溯，但关键在于，这种事情总是会发生。
And in, you know, we we could go back and do that every single bear market, but the point is is it just always happens.
我们总想找些故事来解释市场为什么这样动，但其实不管有没有这些故事，它照样会发生。
Like, it just, you know, perhaps it perhaps we look for narratives to explain why things are happening, but it just seems to happen either way.
我之所以坚信是叙事跟随价格，而不是价格跟随叙事，尤其是在四年周期上，是因为比特币并不独占这个周期。
And the the reason why I'm a big believer in narrative follows price and not price follows narrative in terms of the four year cycle is Bitcoin does not have a monopoly on the four year cycle.
标普500指数长期以来，也差不多每四年见一次底。
The S and P 500, for a long time, bottomed approximately every four years.
对吧？
Right?
从五十年代、六十年代、七十年代到八十年代，你都能看到这个规律。
You can look at this in the fifties, sixties, seventies, and eighties.
你会发现股市在1958年、1962年、1966年、1970年、1974年、1978年和1982年都出现了明显的低点。
You'll find major lows in the stock market in, like, 1958, 1962, '66, '70, '74, '78, and '82.
基本上，每四年整，股市就会触底。
Every four years, basically, on the nose, the stock market would bottom.
我现在能告诉你原因吗？
Could I tell you why now?
我能回头看看，弄清楚为什么它总是在四年左右触底吗？
Like, can I look back and and figure out the reason why it bottomed every four years?
不能。
No.
我说不出具体原因，但这让我觉得，将来一定会发生什么事，然后人们会把责任归咎于它。
I couldn't tell you why, but it it makes me think that something will happen and people will blame that.
但关键是，我不相信叙事会推动价格下跌。
But see, here's the here's the reason why I don't believe that narrative falls price.
回想一下，当ETF推出的时候。
Think back to, you know, when the ETF launched.
对吧？
Right?
你之前提到过这件事。
You talked about that earlier.
比特币ETF上线后，大家都觉得，嗯，反应挺两极的。
And after the ETF launched for Bitcoin, everyone was like, alright, well, this is you know, there was mixed feelings.
有人觉得这已经是高点了。
Some people thought it was a top.
也有人觉得价格还会继续涨。
Some people thought, like, we would continue to go up.
我们确实继续上涨了，于是大家就说，这都是ETF的功劳。
We obviously continue to go up, and people then said, well, it's because of the ETF.
以太坊ETF上线时也发生了同样的事，价格一到高点就停滞了很久，你懂的。
And then we had the same thing happen for Ethereum when the Ethereum ETF launched and it marked the top for a long time, you know?
后来大家就不怎么提ETF了。
And so, then people stopped talking about the ETF.
转而开始关注宏观因素。
And then they they then started focusing on the macro.
他们说，这才是以太坊涨不上去的原因。
They're like, well, this is the reason why Ethereum is not going up.
如果以太坊在ETF推出后上涨了，大家就会觉得这是ETF带来的效应，但事实并没有，所以人们的关注点就转移了。
So had Ethereum gone up after the ETF launched, then people would have believed that the narrative was due to the ETF, but then that didn't happen, and so people sort of shifted gears.
我同意比特币自二月以来表现强劲，但2022年俄乌冲突爆发时，它也曾经表现得很强势。
I I agree that, like, Bitcoin has shown strength since February, but it also showed strength when the Russia Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022.
比特币在一月份触底，随后反弹了几个月，但之后还是在夏天再度下跌。
Bitcoin found a low in January, and then it rallied for a couple of months, and then it still then sold off into the summer.
2018年你说得对。
In 2018, you're right.
比特币在6000美元左右找到了支撑。
Bitcoin found support at around 6 ks.
它在2018年2月，也就是大约6000美元的位置找到了支撑。
It found support in April or sorry, in February 2018 at around 6 ks.
之后又反弹了一波。
It bounced.
到了四月，它又形成了一个更高的低点，大约在6400美元。
And then in April, it put in a higher low at around 6,400.
这不就是我们刚才说的吗。
That's exactly what we just did.
只是涨了十倍而已。
Just 10 x higher.
对吧？
Right?
我们当时在六万美元附近找到支撑，之后又在六万四到六万五千左右形成了更高的低点。
Like we we we found a low at 60 ks and then we found a higher low at around 64 or 65,000.
那时候比特币反弹了，涨到了五月，但之后还是在夏天跌了下去。
And then back then, Bitcoin bounced and it went up into May and then it still sold off into the summer.
它又回落到六千左右，稳住了，直到年底，就像你说的，十一月前后，接着股市又来了新一轮调整。
It went back It basically went back down to 6 k, held that level until, as you said, you know, until November or whatever, end of the year, and then we got another correction in the stock market.
说实话，我觉得历史正在重演，因为2018年的时候，我们还是同一个总统，那年年初第一季度市场就调整了一次，年中又来了第二次调整。
So, I can see history repeating itself, honestly, because back in 2018, we- we had the same president, you know, and- and back then what happened was we had a- we had a correction in the market in the very beginning of the year in Q1, and then we had another correction in the market in like the second half of the year.
正是第二次市场调整，才让比特币跌破了六千美元，对吧？
And it was the second correction in the market that caused Bitcoin to go below $6,000 Right?
是第二次调整。
Was the second correction.
我不该说‘导致’，但叙事确实会影响价格，而且它正好对应了股市的第二次调整。
I shouldn't say caused it, but because again, if if narrative falls price, but it corresponded to a a stat second correction in the stock market.
所以我认为，如果比特币今年晚些时候还会再跌，或者至少测试之前的低点，那很可能也是因为股市那边出现了疲软。
So, I think the argument is that if Bitcoin is gonna go lower as the year goes on or at least retest the lows, you know, it probably would be due to it probably also correspond to to weakness over in, the stock market.
所以我能看到历史简单地重演——股市调整往往会让比特币随后也小幅走低，然后我们再重新整理。
So, I mean, I could see history just simply repeating itself and, you know, sort of a a correction of the stock market leads to a slightly lower price by Bitcoin as we go later into the year and then we kind of reset.
到了年底，也许我们会看到一些不利的宏观数据。
And then maybe by the end of the year, perhaps we do start to get some bad macro data.
但到那时，比特币可能已经提前消化了这些影响。
But maybe Bitcoin's already priced it in at that point.
对吧？
Right?
说白了，比特币很多时候都会提前把各种因素都反映在价格里。
Like and and that's kind of the argument is that Bitcoin prices things in ahead of time in in a lot of ways.
对吧？
Right?
实际上，还没等美伊冲突爆发，比特币就已经跌了百分之五十。
Like, Bitcoin had already dropped 50% by the time this, you know, conflict with, The United States and Iran broke out.
对吧？
Right?
它并不是在冲突前表现强劲才跌的。
Like, it's not like it had been strong going into it.
早在冲突之前，它就已经跌了。
It sold off ahead of it.
等冲突真的发生后，比特币反而反弹了。
And then once the conflict happened, started, then Bitcoin rallied.
所以，如果比特币在夏季或十月前又大跌，可能当时还看不出明显原因，但到了第四季度，如果它触底了，人们可能会重蹈覆辙。
So, if Bitcoin does dump going into the summer or going into October, it there might not be a headline that it's necessarily, like, dumping because of, but perhaps the headline will become obvious if Bitcoin puts in a low in the fourth quarter and people then make the same mistake.
他们会觉得：‘看来还得继续跌’，结果并没有，因为价格早就提前反应了。
They then think, alright, well, it's gonna go lower, and then it doesn't because it already it already priced up.
是的。
Yeah.
这个理论真的很有趣。
It's it's a really interesting theory.
我刚查了下，2018年那波后半段大跌到底是啥时候发生的。
You know, it I was just checking, when in 2018 did the actual back half dump happened.
确实发生过。
So it's it's happened.
对吧？
Right?
是在十一月中旬发生的。
It happened in, mid November.
比特币是这样，但股市我觉得九月就见顶了。
Well, for Bitcoin for Bitcoin, it did, but the stock market, I think, topped in September.
对。
Yeah.
展开剩余字幕（还有 396 条）
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
That's right.
没错。
That's right.
不过呢，确实也有一个缺点。
And then, yeah, there there is sort of a a drawback.
但我还是会想，说实话，我得把一堆记忆拼凑起来。
So but I would wonder if you know, again, I'm having to string together a whole bunch of memories.
但那次大跌是在中期选举后一周发生的。
But that was like a week after the midterms that it dumped.
所以，如果我们想提前构建一个叙事，假设接下来还会有一次大跌，那它应该发生在中期选举前的十月，这样才能和之前那种一年左右的熊市周期对上。
And so if we were going to pre craft the narrative of if there is going to be an upcoming dump, it would need to be in October before the midterms, right, to kinda equal the the sort of one to one year long bear market.
我在想，会不会十月就见底了，然后中期选举才来。
I wonder if, you know, we would see then a bottom form in October, and then the midterms come.
这可能是个信号，表明中期选举对比特币是利好，有助于形成底部，之后价格可能会小幅上涨。
And maybe this is a signal that the midterms will be a good outcome for Bitcoin and will help sort of put in the bottom and you would see it sort of pump out a bit.
我只是好奇，如果叙事跟随价格，那如果你能预判接下来会有什么叙事，是不是反过来也能推算出价格走向？
Just curious, if narrative follows price, perhaps if you know what the narratives are gonna be, then then you could, invert that a little bit.
但这么说，更像是在证明我们活在一个模拟世界，而不是别的什么。
But, you know, that would more be a proof that we're in a simulation, more than anything.
但确实。
But Yeah.
不对。
No.
我的意思是，你确实可以这么讲，我觉得市场最讨厌不确定性。
I mean, I think you could argue so so I think markets hate uncertainty.
对吧？
Right?
尤其是比特币和加密货币市场，特别受不了不确定性。
Bitcoin crypto markets especially hate uncertainty.
说实话，最近不确定性还真没少过。
And there's been no shortage of uncertainty recently, if we're being honest.
对吧？
Right?
在这些市场里操作，不确定性一直很多。
There's been a lot of uncertainty, navigating these markets.
你甚至可以说，短期内人们可能会关注——等等，我不是想谈政治。
And you could almost argue that in the short term, people might view and now look, I'm not trying to get into politics.
对吧？
Right?
这其实更多是数据问题。
This is but this is more of a data.
我们刚在平台上发布了一些新的政治相关图表。
And I actually we actually just we we we just posted some more political charts on our platform.
不是说该投谁、支持谁，只是想看看不同组合下市场表现如何，比如共和党或民主党总统执政，再加上国会由哪方控制。
Not to say that, like, this is, you know, who you should vote for or anything like that, but just see how the market performs under various combinations of, like, Republican versus Democratic presidents and then, like, who controls Congress.
对吧？
Right?
总的来说，无论是共和党全面执政还是民主党全面执政，市场表现通常都不错。
So, the markets tend to do pretty well, under Republican sweeps and Democratic sweeps, like, where they own just the whole thing.
我认为，历史上对市场最不利的情况，是共和党总统搭配分裂的国会。
One of the worst combinations, I think the worst outcome for markets is a Republican president with a split Congress historically.
听起来可能有点反直觉，但历史数据显示，共和党总统加上民主党全面掌控国会，反而表现更好。
So, it's actually better historically if you have Republican president, I think, and the Democrats control all of Congress, as crazy as that sounds.
但我担心，如果人们觉得共和党可能会失去对国会部分席位的控制，市场又会开始担心政策变动带来的影响。
But I do wonder if if people might get spooked that perhaps the Republicans will lose control of, you know, part of Congress, and maybe we'll go back to people thinking that they'll actually be repercussions for doing certain things, in in the markets.
再说一遍，我不是想谈政治，但2025年的时候，简直人人都在推模因币。
I mean, I again, not to get political, but in 2025, it felt like everyone was launching Meme Coins.
我当时就震惊了。
And I'm just like, oh my gosh.
什么时候大家才能重新认真对待这个资产类别呢？
Like, when when can we go back to a time when people took this asset class seriously?
所以我觉得，如果我们能提醒自己什么才是关键，反而可能让人们对这个资产类别更认真一些。
And so I would almost argue that that might even help people to take the asset class a little bit more seriously if we kind of remind ourselves what's important here.
对吧？
Right?
在加密货币里，最重要的就是比特币。
And in crypto, the most important thing is Bitcoin.
如果没有比特币，加密货币根本不会存在。
Without Bitcoin, crypto wouldn't be here.
我看到很多批评比特币的人说，比特币就像互联网时代的AOL，虽然是第一个，但迟早会被别的东西取代。
And a lot of people I've seen a lot of critics of Bitcoin say that, like, Bitcoin is is like the AOL of the Internet, where it's like the first one, but it'll be replaced by something else.
但我真不觉得这话有道理。
But I really don't think that's true.
对吧？
Right?
我真的不觉得这话有道理。
Like, I really don't think that's true.
我觉得，其他加密货币要想存活下来，哪怕只有极小极小的几率，也必须依赖比特币能活下来。
I think that if if other cryptocurrencies survive or for them to even have a tiny, tiny, tiny percent chance to survive, Bitcoin has to survive.
如果比特币垮了，其他所有币都会归零。
If Bitcoin does not survive, then all the other stuff goes to zero.
就算比特币挺住了，其他所有币也照样可能归零。
All the other stuff could already go to zero even if Bitcoin does survive.
对吧？
Right?
所以，关于这一点，我的看法就是这样。
So, I- I think that's like where I am on- on that.
我觉得比特币其实反而可能从市场更稳定中获益，比如有政府的监管制衡，而不是被某一个政党完全主导的时候。
I think that, you know, Bitcoin is I I think Bitcoin might actually benefit a lot from a little bit more, certainty in the markets where you kind of have like the checks and balances of government, which isn't really It can't really happen when you have a sweep of of one party or the other.
对吧？
Right?
当年民主党执政的时候，很多人担心的都是‘扼杀行动’这类政策。
So, when, you know, when when Democrats were in power, a lot of the fear back then was, you know, choke Operation Chokepoint.
对吧？
Right?
他们可是冲着所有人去的，我说真的，谁都逃不掉。
Like, they're going after all the They I mean, mean, were going after everyone.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，所有交易所都遭殃了。
I mean, every all the exchanges.
感觉上，虽然不一定是所有交易所，但我觉得他们盯上的那些人，其实大多是守规矩的。
And it almost felt like, maybe not all the exchanges, but it almost felt like to me that the people they were going after were actually mostly good actors.
结果漏掉的反而是真正的坏人，这真让投资者气愤，你说是不是？他们怎么就没发现FTX的问题，反而去追着那些无关紧要的人不放？这恰恰说明，熊市的转折点，往往都是出人意料的。
And it's like the people that they missed were the bad actors, you know, which was really frustrating for as for investors, you know, because it's like, how how could they miss what was going on with FTX, but they're focused on all these other people and they just they come And that goes to show you that usually the bear market, if you wanna assign a narrative, it's it's It comes out of left field.
没人能提前想到会是这样。
It's not what most people are thinking.
我从来没用过FTX，但说实话，我也完全没想到它会突然崩盘。
I I I've never u I never used FTX, but I also didn't think they were about to collapse, you know?
要是你早在2022年夏天问我，哪个交易所会崩盘，你觉得我会猜哪个？
Like, if you'd asked me in the summer of twenty twenty two, what is an exchange is gonna collapse, guess which one it's gonna be?
我肯定不会想到是FTX，你知道的。
I don't think I would have thought it was FTX, you know?
不过也不是所有人都没看出来。
Now that's not true for everyone.
有些人确实对FTX提出过担忧，他们有眼光，值得肯定。
Some people did express concerns about FTX and and, you know, props to them for doing so.
但我真的觉得，提前预判这种事情特别难。
But I I do think that, that that it is really hard to know ahead of time.
所以我觉得——其实我以前也说过。
So I I would argue you know, I've actually said this before.
我觉得比特币可能在今年中期选举前就触底了。
I I would argue that Bitcoin could bottom before the midterms this year.
等中期选举一来，人们可能会慌，心想：哎呀，这对加密货币可不是什么好事。
And then when the midterms happen, people might get spooked because now they're worried about, oh, well, that's not as good for crypto.
但你想想，2025年1月20日新政府上台时，比特币价格还在10.9万美元。
But if you think about it, on 01/20/2025, Bitcoin was at 109 k when the new administration took office.
现在呢，大概就8万美元了，市场其实已经用行动表态了。
Today, it's at like 80 k, You know, like, the market has kind of spoken in a way.
所以有时候，看起来看涨的事，反而可能是看跌的；而那些看似看跌的，说不定才是真正看涨的。
So, you could almost argue that sometimes what seems bullish is actually bearish, and the things that kinda seem bearish might actually be bullish.
因此，如果比特币在十月见底，而大家还在担心中期选举，我觉得这反而是个积极信号，尽管很多人会以为这是利空。
So, I would actually be in the camp that if Bitcoin is putting in a low in October and people are worried about the midterms, I would say it might actually be a bullish thing even though people might assume it's bearish.
是的。
Yeah.
不是。
No.
如果你的逻辑是跟着价格走的，那你的观点基本成立，前提是十月真的见了底。
I I if your narrative follows price, you know, kind of thesis is true, then it almost necessitates that being the case, assuming that we hit a bottom in October.
这确实会是个非常值得留意的走势。
So it'll be a very interesting one to watch, for sure.
我想再深入聊聊，你之前提到过，你对市场上有些情况可能让这次有所不同这个观点持同情态度，对吧？
And so I want to dig in now a little bit to You had mentioned a little earlier that you're sort of sympathetic to this idea that there are things happening in the market that could make this time different, right?
我想具体探讨一下这些因素，尤其是从宏观背景的角度来看。
And I want to get into some of those, especially as it pertains to the macro backdrop.
比如你提到，量化紧缩在去年十二月已经结束了。
So you mentioned, for instance, quantitative tightening ended in December.
这个月我们还会迎来一位新的美联储主席。
We're going to get a new Fed share this month.
所以我想了解一下，从宏观和货币政策的角度，你觉得接下来会有什么变化？这些因素又是怎么影响你对比特币的看法的？
And and so I'm curious, like, from a macro sense, from a monetary policy sense, what do you see kind of coming down the pipe, and and how are you kind of factoring that into your outlook on Bitcoin?
我觉得关键在于，如果没有狂热的顶部，为什么一定要经历一场惨烈的熊市呢？
I think the argument is if you don't have a euphoric top, why do you have to have a brutal bear market?
你说对吧？
You know?
因为通常那种狂热高点，都会吸引大量新散户进场，一旦市场稍有下跌，他们就吓坏了，赶紧抛售，这才导致熊市持续一整年。
Because most euphoric tops, you have a lot of new retail investors coming in, and so when the market drops at all, they get spooked and they panic sell, and then that kinda has you know, sort of leads to the year long bear market.
这更像是时间到了，大家彻底放弃。
It's like a time based capitulation.
对吧？
Right?
就是那种彻底认输的状态。
Like, where people just give up.
现在所有持有比特币的人，不是所有人，但大多数应该都是四年前就开始持有了。
And I think that everyone invested in Bitcoin right now, not everyone, but most people invested in Bitcoin right now are probably also invested in it four years ago.
对吧？
Right?
他们大概在2021年的时候就已经在了。
Like, they're probably also here in 2021.
当然不是所有人，毕竟现在有了ETF，但我一直在关注社交媒体的数据。
It's not true of everyone because of the ETFs, but I track the social metrics.
比如我跟踪那些在YouTube和Twitter上关注加密货币内容的人，自从2021年以来，这类活动整体一直在下滑。
Like, I I track, like, people who are looking at at at crypto YouTube and and crypto Twitter, and all of that stuff has been generally trending down since 2021.
所以你想一下，虽然加密货币领域发生了这么多新变化，有了ETF，连美国总统都在谈比特币，但社交媒体上的关注度反而一直在下降。
So, that's like a crazy thing to think about is like, alright, well, despite all the new things that have happened in crypto, despite the ETFs, despite, you know, the president of The United States talking about Bitcoin and whatnot, we've actually seen declining social interest.
我来分享一下这张图，你们应该能看清楚。
So, let me let me share this chart and and maybe you guys can can see it.
这张图里的橙线代表比特币的社会关注度，从2021年以后就一直在下滑。
So, so, so this chart right here shows the orange line is is social interest in in in Bitcoin, and it's just been trending down since 2021.
对吧？
Right?
你看，这根本不是那种狂热的高点，之后也没再回到之前的疯狂水平，而是一直在往下走。
Like, you can see, like, this was a a non euphoric top and we did not go back up sort of like these euphoric levels, and we've just been seeing it go down.
所以有人会问，既然没什么新散户进场，为什么熊市还得这么惨烈呢？
And so the argument is is like, well, why does it have to be as brutal of a bear market when you don't really have a lot of new retail investors.
你知道的。
You know?
会不会没那么糟糕？
Could it be not as bad?
但我之所以不认同这个观点，是因为比特币在每个周期中，亏损都在逐渐减少。
But the the reason why I pushed back against that is because Bitcoin already shows diminishing losses from one cycle to another.
对吧？
Right?
如果你看比特币历次周期的表现，让我切换到月线图，等它加载一下。
Like, if you look at Bitcoin through the cycles, and let me switch this over to a a monthly view, if I can get this to load.
我想展示的其实是这个——黄金。
But what I'm gonna what I wanna show essentially is oh, this is gold.
好了，来了。
So, here we go.
这是比特币。
So, here here's Bitcoin.
如果看看每个周期的情况，比如2014年那次熊市，跌幅大约是87%。
And if you look at through the cycles, so if we kinda go through each bear market, you know, the one in 2013 was about an 87% drop.
抱歉，是2014年。
The one in sorry, 2014.
2018年的熊市跌幅是84%。
The 2018 bear market was an 84% drop.
上一轮熊市则跌了大约77%。
And then the last bear market was about 77.
你明白吧？
You know?
所以，我们已经看到每个周期的亏损都在减少。
So, we're already seeing diminishing losses from one cycle to another.
现在我们就处在这个位置。
And so, here we are.
目前已经跌了50%。
We're already looking at a 50% drop.
这够了吗？
Is that enough?
我觉得价格可能还会再跌一点，但反对这个观点的主要理由，也是我为什么不太完全认同的原因是，2019年那次反弹前，比特币也先跌了大约50%。
I I think you will likely see it go a little bit lower, but the biggest counterpoint to that and and one of the reasons why I'm not completely unsympathetic to the view, is if you look at the 2019 move, it was about a 50% drop before Bitcoin started to rally out of that drop.
那时候，正好碰上疫情。
Now, back then, we had the the the pandemic.
可惜我们不知道，如果没有疫情，情况会怎样。
And unfortunately, we don't know what would have happened had we not had the pandemic.
比特币在那种环境下会怎么走？
Like, what would Bitcoin have done in that environment?
这谁也说不准。
We can't know.
总不能跑到另一个没有疫情的平行宇宙去看看价格会怎么变动吧。
It's not like we can go over to a parallel universe where there wasn't a pandemic and see what price action would have looked like.
但归根结底，如果你真相信走势决定叙事的话。
But at the end of the day, if you truly believe that narrative follows price.
对吧？
Right?
如果你真信这个，那就算在黑天鹅事件里，比如2019年那次，比特币还是从高点跌了将近七成。
Like, you truly believe it and even in black swan scenarios, like, if you truly believe it, then you could say, well, back then, even in the 2019 scenario, Bitcoin dropped still about 70% from the highs.
所以我的观点是，从高点下跌70%的话，比特币会落在4万美元左右，稍微低于4万。
So, my argument is that a 70% drop from the highs would put Bitcoin around 40 k, a little bit lower than 40 k.
之所以觉得这种情况可能发生，其中一个原因是，你可以看看平衡价格，还有别的指标。
And the reason why that seems like it could happen, one of the reasons, is if you look at things like the Balance Price and the, what else?
比如，观察平衡价格和实际价格，历史上在熊市里，比特币的低点都会跌破这两个指标。
So, you look at, like, the balance price and the realized price, historically, Bitcoin bottoms below goes below both of them in the bear market.
对吧？
Right?
2011年的时候，就能看到比特币先跌破实际价格，再跌破平衡价格。
So, in in 2011, you can see that Bitcoin went below the realized price and then the balance price.
2014年、2015年也是，先是跌破实际价格，然后才跌破平衡价格。
And and then in 2015, 2014, 2015, it first went below the realized price, then it went below the balance price.
2018年也是同样的情况。
And then in 2018, same thing.
对吧？
Right?
它跌破了实现价格，然后又跌破了平衡价格。
It went below the realized price and then it went below the balance price.
即使在2020年疫情爆发的时候，你猜怎么着？
Even in 2020 with the pandemic, guess what?
它跌破了实现价格和平衡价格。
It went below the realized price and the balance price.
然后在2022年又发生了同样的情况，先是跌破实现价格，接着跌破平衡价格。
And then it did the same thing in 2022, below the realized price and then the balance price.
我知道从图上看好像没跌破平衡价格，但在周线级别上确实跌破了。
This I know it doesn't look like it went below the balance price, but it did on the WIC now.
对吧？
Right?
比如，如果盘中跌到了14k，但日收盘价其实比那要高。
Like, if we went to 14 k, but the daily close was like higher than that.
我记得当时收盘价是在15k以上。
It was like above 15 k, I believe.
或者抱歉。
Or sorry.
不对。
No.
我们没跌到一万四。
We didn't go to 14 k.
我们是到了一万五千多，但还是低于平衡价。
We went to, what, 15 point something, but it was below the balance price.
那时候平衡价是15650美元，我觉得我们低了大概几百美元。
The balance price back then was 15.65 k, and I think we went like a few $100 below.
从技术上讲，每次熊市，比特币都会跌破实现价格和平衡价。
So, technically speaking, every bear market, Bitcoin has gone below the realized price and the Balance Price.
但这次还没发生。
And and it hasn't done that yet.
对吧？
Right?
就是还没发生过。
Like, it just hasn't.
我觉得很可能接下来就会发生。
And I think there's a good chance that it will.
另外，比特币在熊市里常出现的情况是，供需与盈亏曲线会交叉。
And then the other thing that Bitcoin likes to do in bear markets is the supply and profit or loss tends to cross.
对吧？
Right?
每次熊市，这两条线都会交叉，但这次还没发生。
So, every bear market, they they they tend to cross and and that hasn't happened yet.
通常来说，得等它们交叉之后，才开始找市场的底部，而不是之前。
And normally, you start looking for bottoms in the market after they cross, not before.
历史上，市场底部都是在这两条指标交叉之后出现的。
Historically, the bottoms occurred after these two metrics cross.
我一直在关注的是2019年的那次对比。
The one thing I keep an eye on is that 2019 comparison.
对吧？
Right?
你看2019年那次行情，就在这个非狂热高点之后，比特币一路下跌，如果拿现在这个熊市和那时候对比，到2025年为止，走势其实非常接近。
Because when you look at this 2019 move, like after this non euphoric top right here and how Bitcoin went down, if you compare the current bear market to that, to that period, we can look at that and see that it's it's actually tracking it pretty closely, so far through 2025.
所以我觉得这是最主要的反方观点。
So, I think that's the biggest counterpoint.
但我很难完全接受这个说法，因为即使在那种情况下，比特币最后还是因为疫情进一步下跌了。
But the reason why I have a hard time getting past that is because even in that scenario, Bitcoin still eventually went lower due to a pandemic.
对吧？
Right?
我不是在预测会有疫情，我只是说，今年下半年很可能出现别的事情，然后大家会归咎于它。
I'm not calling for a pandemic, but I'm saying that doesn't mean there won't be something in the second half of the year that then people blame, you know.
这其实又回到你的核心观点：归根结底，宏观因素决定一切，而宏观的不可预测性，远超比特币自身能产生的任何影响。
And it goes back to your your overall point, which is that, you know, macro macro decides everything at the end of the day, and macro is more unpredictable than anything that Bitcoin in and of itself can sort of create or do or act like.
所以这么说是有道理的。
So it makes sense.
嗯，好吧。
Well, so, okay.
这种图表上的对比，还有不同时间段里比特币的表现，确实挺有意思的。
So it's a very interesting sort of comparison on the charts and different behaviors that we've seen throughout time.
我想问问，你现在有没有注意到什么宏观层面的信号，让你对比特币未来的走势有了更明确的看法？
I am curious, like, do you see anything in the macro sense right now that is catching your eye and making you, like, really underwrite where you see Bitcoin going?
因为你刚才提到，你对那些认为市场可能见底的人是持理解态度的。
Because, you know, you mentioned you're sympathetic.
我还想聊聊比特币的公司金库这个话题。
I also want to talk about Bitcoin treasury companies.
不确定现在是不是谈这个的合适时机。
I don't know if this is the right place to layer that in as well.
不过你一直说，你理解那些觉得底部可能已经到来的人。
But keep saying sort of you're sympathetic to the folks who are like, could be the bottom.
你这么想，是有什么宏观上的依据吗？
Is there a macro reason for that?
还是说，这种普遍的冷漠情绪最终只会导致一个较弱的熊市？
Or is it more kind of just a a general the the apathetic top leads to sort of a a lesser bear market?
你可以这么说，因为我在去年十一月的比特币阿姆斯特丹大会上登台说过，我们正处于熊市，还提到至少到2026年上半年，我们都会面临宏观方面的逆风。
Well, you could argue that if you have a new because, I mean, I I went on stage at Bitcoin Amsterdam, back in November, said we were in a bear market, right, and said that we would face macro headwinds at least for the first half of twenty twenty six.
而这种情况可能会在美联储新任主席上任后有所改变。
And that maybe that would change after we do have a new Fed share.
问题是，凯文·沃什只是委员会里一个人。
The problem is Kevin Warsh, he's only one person on the committee.
对吧？
Right?
他不可能单方面决定把利率降到自己想要的水平。
Like, he can't just unilaterally cut rates to whatever he wants it to be.
他得获得委员会其他成员的批准。
He's gotta get the approval of other members on the board.
我不是说他最终拿不到支持，但我认为他刚上任时，大概率是做不到的。
And I I'm not saying he can't eventually get that, but I think that he probably won't be able to get that when he first gets into office.
明白吧？
Okay?
其中一个原因是我们现在正经历能源冲击。
And one of the reasons is because of the energy shock that we're experiencing right now.
如果没有能源冲击，降息会容易得多。
If it were not for the energy shock, it'd be a lot easier to cut rates.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，降息本来会容易得多。
I mean, it'd be a lot easier to cut rates.
他们某种程度上是在自讨苦吃，明明想降息，却又面临这场能源危机——在这种情况下，你怎么可能降息呢？
I mean, they're kinda they're shooting themselves in the foot to some degree because, like, they want lower rates, but also at the same time, we have this energy crisis that how can you cut rates into the energy crisis?
劳动力市场倒是可以成为降息的理由。
The labor market, you could justify cutting rates.
尽管裁员人数少，初次申领失业救济的人数也低，但我觉得其他方面，比如招聘和职位空缺这些指标，已经显示出足够疲软，值得再降25到50个基点。
I I mean, even though layoffs are low, and initial claims are low, I think there's enough weakness in sort of other parts of the market, like in hiring and and job openings, that kind of stuff, that would merit maybe cutting rates another 25 or 50 basis points.
我觉得劳动力市场——其实降息反而会对劳动力市场有帮助。
I don't think the labor market- I I think that would actually help the labor market.
而且你也不想在降息之前就把经济拖入衰退，对吧？
And again, you don't want to cause a recession before you cut rates, right?
降息的本意就是要在衰退到来之前提前行动。
The whole point is to cut rates before you go into a recession.
问题是，在经济周期后期，如果油价因为供应问题而不是需求问题突然飙升，这通常是经济周期走向尾声的信号，因为这样一来，美联储就陷入两难：他们想降息，却又不敢，毕竟能源危机推高了通胀。
The problem is in the late business cycle environment, when oil is spiking because of a supply issue and not a demand issue, that's usually the beginning of the end of the business cycle because then it sort of leads to the Fed being checkmated where they wanna lower rates, but they can't because of this energy crisis that's leading to inflation going back up.
我不是宏观经济专家，但我知道美联储的基本职责是维持低失业率和物价稳定，对吧？
Well, and I'm I'm no I'm no macro economist, you know, sort of expert, but, you know, the the basic idea of the Fed is it's supposed to maintain, you know, low unemployment and stable prices, right?
这是它的双重目标。
That's its dual mandate.
你提到油价上涨是因为供应问题，而不是需求问题。
And you mentioned oil prices being high due to a supply issue versus a demand issue.
我明白为什么如果油价是因为需求过热而上涨，就不该降息。
I can understand why you can't lower rates if oil prices are high due to a demand issue.
但如果大家都明白，油价上涨是因为供应问题，能源价格高企也是因为供应中断，这难道不几乎要求我们重新规划基础设施建设吗？
But if everyone kind of understands that oil prices are high because of a supply issue, and it's general energy prices that are high because of supply disruptions, doesn't that almost necessitate sort of a re underwriting of an infrastructure build out?
而这难道不需要降低利率吗？
And wouldn't that require lower rates?
为什么这个表面数字却成了阻碍我们深入探讨在这种情况下真正有效政策的障碍？
And why is that such a it almost feels like the headline number there is preventing any sort of further digging into what actual good policy might look like in that world.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，就像我说的，我觉得我们现在这么做简直是在自断前路，按理说，现在就该降息了。
I mean, mean, like I said, I feel like we're shooting ourselves in the foot because ideally, we would be cutting rates right now.
我觉得，这才合理。
Like, that, I think, would make sense.
但问题在于，我们不知道供应紧张什么时候能缓解，你明白吗？
But the problem here is we don't know when the supply constrict We don't know when that's gonna actually resolve itself, you know?
我觉得市场现在也很难相信，这场冲突到底会不会就此结束？
And I I think the markets are having a hard time, you know, trusting like, okay, is this conflict gonna just be, like, is it gonna be over now?
还是得好几年才能解决？
Or is it gonna take a couple of years?
你知道的。
You know?
说实话，我也不清楚。
Like, I don't know.
我真的完全没概念。
I have no idea.
我又不是地缘政治专家。
I'm not a geopolitical expert.
这点我可以肯定。
I can assure you that.
所以，我也说不准。
And so, I don't know.
真的，我也说不准。
Like, I don't know.
而且我觉得，要是通胀持续的时间比预期更长，那就不只是油价在涨了。
And I I think with with inflation, if it if it lasts longer than peep- because oil is not the only thing going up now.
你看，食品价格也在往上走。
Mean, you're also seeing like food food prices going up too.
可能会重演九十年代末的情况。
What could happen is a repeat of the of the late nineties.
九十年代末，美联储降息了，后来才发现降得太早了。
So, the late nineties, the Fed lowered rates and they realized they lowered them prematurely.
那可能发生什么呢？
And so, what could happen?
我觉得美联储，尤其是鲍威尔，之所以不愿降息，是因为如果降得太早，反而会重新点燃市场的投机情绪。
The reason why I think the Fed is, and why Powell is resistant to lowering rates, is because if they lower rates too soon, it could actually rekindle the animal spirits.
对吧？
Right?
然后这可能会导致未来出现更大的崩盘。
And- and then that could lead to an even bigger crash later on.
所以，我认为这就是他们想避免的情况。
And so, I think that that is what they want to avoid.
那九十年代到底发生了什么？那时候我还没入市交易。
So, what happened in- in the nineties, for people that are- that- that were- I wasn't trading back then.
我当时才十岁，2000年的事，你懂的。
I mean, I was- in 2000, was 10 years old, you know?
不过在九十年代中期到后期，美联储一直在降息。
So, but in- in 1990 or sorry, in the- in the mid to late nineties, the Fed was cutting rates.
到了1998年、1999年左右，美联储才意识到，他们其实重新点燃了市场狂热。
And then in, I think, like 1980 1998, 1999, the Fed actually realized they had, I guess, essentially rekindled the animal spirits.
那时候通胀又开始抬头，他们不得不连续加息好一阵子。
You were starting to see inflation go back up, and they ended up having to raise rates for a while.
正是在经济周期后期的这次加息，最终戳破了泡沫，对吧？
And it was the raising of rates in that late business cycle environment that eventually popped the bubble, right?
真正戳破泡沫的，就是这个。
That's what actually popped.
那就是导致泡沫破裂的因素之一。
That was one of the things that popped the bottle- bubble.
他们不得不加息。
They had to raise rates.
我不希望这种事情发生。
So, I don't want that to happen.
我更希望他们别加息，但问题是，如果他们真像你说的那样降息，比如降一百个基点之类的，那会怎样？
Like, I- I- I would much prefer them not raise rates, but the issue is if they were to cut rates, like, let's say they do what you say and they cut rates and let's say they cut, you know, a 100 basis points or something.
问题是，一年后他们可能会发现降得太猛，不得不做出一个难以想象的决定——把利率又大幅拉回去。想想这对加密市场会有多打击。
The issue is they might look back in a year and realize that they were too aggressive, and then they might have to do the unthinkable, and that would be to raise rates all the way back up, And then think about how demoralizing that would be for the crypto markets.
你明白吧？
You know?
要是他们真把利率又抬回5%，那对加密市场，至少在短期内，肯定不是好事。
If I mean, imagine if they had to raise rates back up to 5%, that would not be good for, you know, for the crypto markets more than likely in the short term.
我觉得比特币应该能挺过去。
I think I think Bitcoin would survive.
我不是说比特币撑不过去。
I'm not saying that Bitcoin wouldn't survive it.
我觉得比特币经历过更糟的情况。
I think Bitcoin has survived a lot worse.
我只是觉得行业里其他很多东西都撑不住。
I just think that a lot of the other stuff in the industry would not survive.
说到 treasury 公司，你提到了这个，我想说一点，这可能是个有争议的观点，但我从来不怕表达有争议的看法。
And and, you know, as far as treasury companies, because you mentioned treasury companies, I will say this, and I This might be a controversial take, but I've never shied away from controversial takes.
我觉得行业里不管什么东西，最终都会流向比特币。
I think everything in the industry, no matter what it is, eventually bleeds to Bitcoin.
一开始是山寨币流向比特币，到现在还是这样。
So, initially, altcoins bled to Bitcoin, and they still do.
对吧？
Right?
从长远来看，所有东西都会慢慢流向比特币。
They all bleed to Bitcoin over a longer period of time.
它们可能在一二个周期里表现得比比特币更好，但从宏观角度看，最终都会被比特币吸走。
They might outperform Bitcoin for one or two cycles, but over the macro scale, they'll basically all just bleed to Bitcoin.
加密公司的股票。
Crypto company stock.
比如说交易所的股票，或者任何一家主要做加密业务的公司，你想想看。
Like, you know, look think about, like, exchange stocks, or just any any company that has these, like, crypt it's mainly crypto related.
时间一长，这些股票最终都会向比特币靠拢。
Eventually, over a longer period of time, the stock bleeds to Bitcoin.
明白吗？
Okay?
所有比特币矿企，最终都会被比特币吸走。
The miners, all of the Bitcoin miners eventually bleed to Bitcoin.
那些现在没被比特币吸走的，反而是那些早就转向人工智能等其他领域的矿企。
The ones that are doing the best against Bitcoin are the ones that actually pivoted away from Bitcoin and pivoted over to, like, AI stuff.
这些公司目前受比特币的影响没那么大。
Those are the ones that are not bleeding to Bitcoin right now, as much.
所以我的观点是这样的。
So my argument is this.
如果加密货币领域的其他东西最终都会流向比特币，那么我推测，在更长的时间跨度里，那些持有比特币的公司最终也会把重心转向比特币。
If everything else eventually if everything else in crypto bleeds to Bitcoin, then my guess is that eventually, over a longer period of time, the treasury companies will also bleed to Bitcoin.
所以这个论点，当
And so the argument When
你说‘流向比特币’的时候，你的意思是说，最终会回归到比特币这个核心上来。
you say bleed to Bitcoin, you mean kind of to to Under the core.
以比特币计价的这些资产的价格，对吧。
Bitcoin denominated price of those assets Right.
最终你会看到大幅下跌。
Will eventually you'll see a massive decrease.
对。
Right.
所以，就像，你总是会有那么一两个周期，这些资产的表现会超过比特币，我们也见过这种情况。
So, like, you can always have a couple of cycles where that asset outperforms Bitcoin, and we've seen that.
我的意思是，很多山寨币在一两个周期里确实跑赢了比特币。
I mean, plenty of altcoins outperform Bitcoin for one or two cycles.
treasury公司也曾在一两个周期里跑赢过比特币。
Treasury companies have been able to outperform Bitcoin for one or two cycles.
但我认为这个说法很快就会改变。
But I think that narrative is gonna shift.
随着趋势继续发展，未来几个周期里，你会看到这些 treasury公司逐渐落后于比特币。
I I think that as we continue on, I I think you'll see the the treasury companies underperform Bitcoin in future cycles.
这其实是在提醒大家，比特币才是加密世界里最核心的价值所在。
And it's just gonna be kind of a reminder to everyone here that Bitcoin represents the best of the Cryptoverse.
它代表了整个加密生态里最本质的东西。
Like, it represents the best of it.
其他所有产品，不管你是想发个迷因币、山寨币，还是别的什么，最终都会被吸回那个最初把我们带到这里的东西。
And every other product out there, in a lot of ways, like every other way to buy, like, you know, if you wanna launch a Meme Coin or an Alt Coin or whatever it may be, every other thing eventually just bleeds to the thing that brought us here in the first place.
所以当你想明白这一点，就会发现，在加密领域过度分散投资其实没什么意义——因为从长远来看，你分散得越开，投资组合的萨特oshi价值反而越低。
So, when you think about that, like, it's it's hard to be overly diversified in the crypto industry when you just kinda realize that the Satoshi value of your portfolio goes down the more diversified that you are over a long enough period of time.
但这并不意味着你不能靠交易其他东西赚钱。
Again, that doesn't mean you can't make money trading other things.
我确实赚过。
Like, I I have.
我以前买过以太坊。
Like, I I bought Ethereum before.
我还买过矿机之类的东西，不是说我就从来没碰过这些，对吧？
Like, I bought, miners and that kind of It's not like I've never bought it, you know?
但不管怎样，从长远来看，资金还是会慢慢回流到王者身上。
But that doesn't change the fact that over a longer period of time, I I think that it just bleeds back to to the king.
对。
Yeah.
这确实说得通。
Well, that that makes sense.
而且，从某种角度看，这种对市场的理解也很符合奥地利学派的思路——如果你把比特币看作整个市场，那么任何单一资产都只能暂时跑赢大盘，最终还是市场本身胜出。
And, you know, there's something very Austrian in that sort of understanding of the market too, where if you if you view Bitcoin as just sort of the market then, you know, any single entity can only outperform the market for so long, and then eventually, you know, the market wins.
对，没错。
So Right.
这确实说得通。
It does make sense.
但当然，总会有一些例外情况。
But of course, there will be exceptions.
比如ETF，从技术上讲，它们的费用会让资金慢慢流回比特币。
You know, the ETFs, for instance, like, I guess technically they will bleed to Bitcoin because of the fees they take.
但同时，它们的价格基本上还是会跟着比特币走。
But at the same time, they're mostly going to track with the Bitcoin price.
如果这些基金公司没法直接买入比特币，只能通过溢价发行新股来收购底层资产，那它们未来或许能真正做到与比特币价格完全同步。
You know, you might see some of these treasury companies manage to effectively track one to one for the with the Bitcoin price moving forward if they can't do anything to accumulate Bitcoin that doesn't involve sort of issuing more shares at a premium to to buy the underlying.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得你说得对，过去两年我们看到的某些趋势，很可能在未来会逐渐消失。
You know, the I think that I agree with you generally that some of these things we've seen as trends over the past two years are probably going to go away moving forward.
你得找别的办法才能超越比特币。
You're going have to find a different way to outperform Bitcoin.
这个观点挺有意思的。
But it is an interesting take.
这个看法非常有意思。
It's a very interesting take.
嗯，我知道我们只剩几分钟了。
Well, I to I know we've got just a few more minutes left.
我还想聊聊，你觉得2026年之后市场会怎么发展？假设我们至少会在未来六到十二个月内触底，哪怕是最保守的情况。
I also want to kind of talk about how you see market playing out beyond 2026, you know, beyond assuming we're going to bottom at some point, right, over the next, call it, six to twelve months, you know, in a very conservative case.
你觉得比特币的基本面还会像过去那样持续走强吗？
Do you see Bitcoin fundamentally going on and performing as it has in the past?
你觉得会出现什么新的行为模式吗？
Do you see sort of a new behavior emerging?
你看到比特币和人工智能、能源建设这些大趋势之间有什么交集吗？
What the broader trends you see it intersecting with AI, you know, energy build out, etcetera?
你是怎么从宏观角度看待比特币的呢？
Like, how do you kind of just view Bitcoin from that really macro lens?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得今年晚些时候股市可能会出现二次回调，那时候比特币也可能跟着下跌。
I think I'm looking at a sort of a secondary correction on the stock market later this year that will likely correspond to Bitcoin going lower.
从这个角度看，我可能想错了。
From that point, I think it look, I could be wrong.
对吧？
Right?
但咱们先假设我说得对，就一会儿。
So but let's let's assume I'm right for a minute.
对吧？
Right?
我们就假设比特币会在十月触底，虽然未必会这样，但先这么假设吧。
Let's just assume that Bitcoin finds a low in October, even though it might not, but let's just assume it does.
如果我们坐在这里，看到比特币在十月跌到新低，那时候想买入肯定会特别害怕。
If we're sitting here and and Bitcoin's trading at like, you know, like below at a new low in October, it's gonna be really scary to wanna buy then.
你想啊，得发生多糟糕的事，人才会合理化比特币为啥跌到那种价位呢？
Because think think about what would have to be happening for people to, like, be rationalizing why Bitcoin is trading at those prices, you know?
我觉得这很难，但可能最好的办法就是先买进去，事后再说别的。
I think it's gonna be hard, but I think it's gonna be one of those things where it's like, the best thing to do is just buy it and ask questions later.
对吧？
Right?
所以，如果宏观环境很差，我想买比特币这种风险资产会很难。
So, like, if the macro looks bad, I think it'll be hard to buy a risk asset like Bitcoin.
但反过来想，它刚经历了一整年的熊市，也许坏消息早就被消化了。
But then when you think back to like, okay, well, it actually just went through a year long bear market, maybe it's already priced in.
我觉得下一个周期会特别棘手，因为我们还要面对经济周期的尾声和比特币四年周期的轮动。
So, the way I think the next cycle is gonna be tricky because we're also gonna be contending with the end of the business cycle and the next four year cycle for Bitcoin.
回想上一轮，那其实是个小周期，最后在2020年特朗普执政期间，因为危机结束了。
And if you think about the last one, the last one that we had was sort of a mini one and it ended when Trump was president in 2020 with the crisis.
对吧？
Right?
那场危机是新冠疫情，之后开启了一个新的经济周期。
It ended with the crisis of the pandemic and then that started a new business cycle.
所以我觉得，某个时候这种情况一定会出现。
So, I think you will have that at some point.
理想情况下，这场危机要是今年发生就好了，这样正好赶上比特币四年周期的低点，然后就能顺利进入新一轮牛市和经济周期。
Ideally, that crisis would be this year because then it would it would nicely line up with a four year cycle low, and then we could just go on into a new bull market, a new business cycle.
这可是我最理想的情况。
That would be my dream scenario.
对吧？
Right?
因为那样的话，一切都会变得简单多了。
Because it would just make it so much easier.
但如果没发生，那下一个周期就会更复杂，因为我们还得面对经济周期可能即将结束的问题。
If that doesn't happen, you know, like if if that doesn't happen, then it's gonna make the next cycle a little trickier because then we still have to contend with potentially the end of the business cycle that it could could occur.
但我认为，这方面的时间窗口可能还会持续一段时间。
But I I think that, you know, the runway on that, it could still be a while.
对吧？
Right?
商业周期最难的地方就在于，没人能准确预测它会持续多久。
And that's the, that's the hard part about business cycles is like, you know, one knows how long they're gonna play out.
人们一直都在预测经济衰退，早就这样了。
I mean, people have been calling to refer a recession forever.
不光是2022年以后，2020年确实发生过一次，但我记得2014、2015年的时候，大家就已经在担心经济衰退了。
I mean, even even I mean, not not only since 2022, I mean, obviously we had one in 2020, but I even remember in 2014, 2015, everyone was worried about a recession.
对吧？
Right?
2018年的时候，这话题也特别热。
It was also a lot of discussion in in 2018.
所以我觉得，商业周期结束的时候，经济衰退终究还是会来的。
So, like, you I think you will have a recession at the end of the business cycle.
我说这个是因为，过去的每一个经济周期最后都以衰退收场。
And the reason I say that is because every business cycle of past ends with a recession.
但对加密货币来说，如果真出现衰退，反而可能对能挺过来的项目是好事，因为衰退通常会带来更宽松的货币政策，而加密货币恰恰最吃这一套。
But for crypto, you could argue that if you have a recession, that would actually be a good thing for the things that can survive because what a recession would do, it was- it was- it would usher in looser monetary policy, you know, which crypto thrives on.
所以目前我的基本判断是，比特币会在第四季度触底。
So, I I think right now, my my base case is Bitcoin finds a low in Q4.
具体什么时候我不敢确定，但如果非要我猜，我觉得可能是十月。
I don't know exactly when, but if you made me guess, I'd say October.
简单点说，从高点算起一年左右。
Just keep it simple, a year from the top.
然后从那个低点开始反弹一段时间，之后就得看宏观形势怎么发展了。
And then we rally off of that low for a while, and and then we'll have to see how the macro unfolds from there.
再往后的事，我就真说不准了。
And I you know, it's it's beyond that, I can't really say.
毕竟那还太遥远，很难预测，但我认为比特币今年不太可能再创新高，不过只要宏观环境不崩，下一个周期里它完全有可能再冲一次。
Like, it's so far off in the in the distance that it's it's hard to say, but I think that it's it's I think it's unlikely that Bitcoin puts in all time highs this year, but I I could see it happening again in the next cycle as long as the macro holds up.
我经常看宏观形势，目前来看，劳动力市场还算稳定。
And and I mean, I look at the macro a lot and I mean, for now, the labor market seems seems fine.
真正的问题是，当股市出现回调时，可能会引发连锁反应——劳动力市场受压，需求下降，进而导致更多裁员，需求进一步萎缩。
It's just that when you get drawdowns in the stock market, that's what could lead to the sort of the feedback, the negative feedback loop, that could occur in the labor market leading to lower demand, which leads to more layoffs, which leads to lower demand.
但我们还没到那一步。
We're not at that point.
现在还没陷入这种恶性循环。
Like, we're not in that feedback loop right now.
据我判断，离那种循环还有段距离。
And as far as I can tell, we're still a little ways off from that from that feedback loop.
不过目前来看，这就是我的看法。
But for now, those are my thoughts.
今年下半年比特币会触底，之后反弹，至于2027年宏观会怎么走，那就走着瞧了。
Find a low later this year in the second half, and then from there, rally, and then we'll see what happens in 2027 with the macro.
你对比特币有没有一个终极判断？不是看价格走势，而是它到底该归为哪类资产？它的潜在市场规模有多大？最终的市值或价值应该是什么水平？
Do you have a ultimate thesis around Bitcoin, you know, outside of even price action of just, you know, what's its comparable asset class, what's its TAM, you know, what does that ultimate sort of market cap or value look like for Bitcoin?
还是说你主要还是受限于这种周期性的看法？
Or are you are you mostly constrained to these sort of cyclical views on it?
我觉得比特币在很多方面就像纳斯达克的杠杆版。
I mean, I think it operates as, a leveraged version of the Nasdaq in a lot of ways.
它对货币政策更敏感。
It's more sensitive to monetary policy.
你想啊，为什么比特币在熊市里会跌70%到80%？就是因为之前牛市里它涨得太猛了。
Like, if you think about why Bitcoin drops like 70 or 80% in bear markets, it's because it completely outperformed the Nasdaq and the bull market.
就拿上一轮周期来说，比特币从高点跌了50%，但纳斯达克没跌这么多。
You know, like, this past cycle, like, Bitcoin's down 50% from the highs, and so and the Nasdaq is not.
不过要是从低点算起，比特币从2022年以来的涨幅还是超过了纳斯达克。
But if you measure it from the low, Bitcoin is still up more than the Nasdaq from 2022.
我觉得比特币其实代表了一种摆脱我们不幸陷入的金融体系的出路。
So, I I mean, I think Bitcoin kinda represents the way out of the financial system that we that we were unfortunately find ourselves in.
我觉得这是个非常长期看涨的因素。
And I I think that's like a really long term bullish thing.
唯一的问题是，虽然从长期来看比特币看涨，但它仍然受制于货币政策和这些它无法控制的宏观经济因素。
The only issue is that while it is long term bullish, Bitcoin is still subject to, you know, monetary policy and these macroeconomic constraints that it cannot control.
我觉得比特币最终会涨到一百万美元，但我觉得这需要的时间比大多数人想的要长得多。
So, I think Bitcoin will eventually go to a million, but I think it's gonna take a lot longer than what a lot of people think.
别以为会在下一个周期、再下一个周期，甚至再下一个周期就发生。
You know, like, don't think it's gonna happen next cycle or the cycle after that or even the cycle after that.
我觉得至少要到2040年代，才可能看到这样的估值水平。
I think it's gonna take until probably at least the twenty forties, you know, to to potentially see those kind of valuations.
之所以需要这么长时间，是因为我认为在这之前，经济会经历一次调整，比如一场衰退，这会拖慢进程。
And the reason it's going to take that long is because I think you will have sort of an, an economic reset, like a recession sometime between now and then, which will then delay things.
等经济恢复，还得再过一两个周期才能回到现在的水平。
It'll it'll then take, know, that means it'll take another cycle or two just to get back up to where we were.
然后再花一两个周期，才能在那基础上继续增长，所以我觉得它需要的时间比大家想的要长。
And then it'll take another cycle or two to, you know, to compound off of that, which is why I see it taking longer than than than people think.
不过说真的，我当初接触比特币，是因为回看2011年金融危机时的情况，觉得太荒谬了——明明是这些人该负责，结果却用纳税人的钱去救他们，靠印钞来解决问题，而且我知道，明天我的美元可能就比今天更不值钱了，总得找个地方放一放吧。
But, yeah, I mean, I Look, the reason I got into Bitcoin in the first place was also kind of seeing back in 2011 what happened with the financial crisis and just being like, you know, this is completely ridiculous that we're just gonna bail all these people out and we're just gonna print our problems away and, you know, like, and and to know that my dollars are gonna be worth less tomorrow than today, like, maybe want to put it somewhere.
我本来已经在炒股了，但我觉得比特币提供了一个靠谱的解决方案。
I was already putting it in the stock market, but, you know, Bitcoin offered, I thought, a viable solution.
我一直对比特币特别看好。
Like, I've always been really bullish on Bitcoin.
如果我不看好比特币，我根本不会搞一个专门讲它的YouTube频道。
If I wasn't bullish on Bitcoin, I wouldn't have started a a YouTube channel centered around it.
有人说我看空比特币，其实不是，我只是说比特币会经历熊市，这很正常。
Like, people say that I'm bearish on it, but, you know, it's just that Bitcoin goes through bear markets and that's not a bad thing.
所有资产都会经历熊市，对吧？
Everything goes through bear markets, right?
黄金也会经历熊市。
Like gold goes through bear markets.
标普500也会经历熊市。
The S and P goes through bear markets.
就连QQQ，也就是纳斯达克指数，也逃不过熊市。
Even the QQQ, the NASDAQ, it all goes through bear markets.
这并不意味着技术本身有问题。
That doesn't mean that the technology is bad.
只是说明我们无法控制的一些因素会导致市场进入下行周期。
It just means that we go through bear markets for reasons that are outside of our control.
现在是中期选举年，通常来说，比特币处于熊市是大概率事件。
And I right now, in midterm years, it's just normally, it's a fairly safe bet to assume Bitcoin's at a bear market in the midterm year.
这并不代表我是个长期看空的人。
That doesn't make me a permabear.
我只是对今年比特币可能的表现保持现实的预期。
It just makes me somewhat realistic about what to expect Bitcoin to do this year.
完全说得通。
Makes total sense.
我觉得咱们可以在这儿做个不错的收尾。
Well, I think that's a a pretty great place to sort of end it.
本，咱们马上结束前，你还有什么最后的想法或想说的吗？
Ben, before we jump, do you have any sort of last thoughts or last comments, before we wrap it?
说实话，从长远来看，看空的人说得对，看多的人才赚钱。
Look, I mean, over the long haul, the bear sound smart and the bulls make money.
市场本来就是这样的。
It's how the markets work.
对吧？
Right?
我总是提醒自己这一点。
And I I always remind myself of that.
所以你也可以说，这现在可能也适用。
So, you know And you could say that might maybe applies to now.
也许我太悲观了，该醒醒了。
Maybe I'm being too bearish and and I need to I need to wake up.
但如果今年市场继续下跌，看空的人就真说中了。
But if if the market does go lower this year, the bears are gonna sound really smart.
那时候可能真很难下手买入。
And and it might be really hard to buy.
但我觉得，世界上最富有的人，其实并不是那些做空的人。
But I I would say, you know, the the the richest people on the in the world are are not the people that were short selling anything.
他们是那些看好某些东西，并且真正把公司做起来的人。
You know, they're the people that were bullish on stuff and, you know, build out companies.
我们是在押注未来，而不是跟市场对着干。
We're betting for things, not against things.
所以从长远来看，做多才更赚钱，但在某些市场环境下，看空也没问题。
So, over the long haul, it it pays to be a bull, but I think it's okay to to be bearish in some environments.
但千万别陷入片面思维，忽略了更大的格局。
But just make sure that you don't get tunnel vision and and lose the the larger picture.
对。
Yeah.
别因为一直盯着熊市，结果错失了下一个牛市。
Don't don't end up watching the next bull market pass you by while you've Right.
你得明白，别在熊市的思维里陷得太深。
You know, lived inside of the bear narrative for too long.
本，我觉得这对话特别好，说实话，聊起熊市里的现状，感觉很自然、很舒服。
Well, Ben, I think that this is really good sort of I think this is a comfortable conversation, frankly, around, you know, what we're seeing in the bear market.
这当然不是你第一次经历比特币的寒冬。
And, you know, this is obviously not your first Bitcoin winter.
也不是我的第一次。
It's not mine.
你刚才说的这些，跟我们当下的处境和市场情绪完全吻合，直觉上就对得上。
And so a lot of what you talk about just intuitively sort of checks out with where we are and the sentiment.
你的观点非常理性、冷静。
And, it's a very level headed take.
真的很感谢你为我们的听众一步步梳理清楚这些内容。
So I really appreciate you kind of walking our audience through it.
当然，你这些年在加密世界打造的平台堪称一流。
Of course, you have a phenomenal platform you've built over the years into the Cryptoverse.
你所做的一切真的让我非常钦佩，也很荣幸能邀请到你。
Truly impressed with with kind of everything that you've done there and really honored to have you on.
我相信这只是我们众多对话的开始，非常感谢你抽出时间。
So I'm sure this is the the first of many conversations we'll have and really appreciate you taking the time.
是的。
Yeah.
能来这儿我很开心。
It was a pleasure to be here.
谢谢你的邀请，期待下次再见。
Thanks for having me, and I look forward to seeing you next time.
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