贬值与再美元化：黄金、泰达币与比特币如何塑造新货币秩序 | BPH第26期

所以我们拭目以待。

So we'll we'll we'll see.

我们确实有来自两个委员会的朋友，我认为可以说，比特币社区在两个委员会里都有朋友。

We're it's got we'll get to be we have, again, we have friends at both committees who are Bitcoin, I think I I would say this, the Bitcoin community has friends at both committees.

他们会努力做正确的事，但和所有事情一样，参议院总是需要谈判，如果每个人都想要一项法案，最终通过的法案未必是最好的。

They will we'll we'll look to do the right thing, but like everything else, you know, certainly the senate, it's, you know, it's it's always about negotiating, getting with if everybody wants a bill, the bill that comes out is not necessarily always the best bill.

所以，参与的重要性此时开始凸显。

So this is this is where participation starts to matter.

不管你是否住在有议员分管相关领域的州，你都需要给你的参议员打电话，礼貌而理性地告诉他们，你不支持任何对BRCA市场结构的修改。

You know, if you are it doesn't matter whether you're you live in state with a member on either space or not, you need to call your senator your senator and very politely politely and reasonably let them know that you you do not support any changes to the BRCA in market structure.

现在是个关键时期。

This is an important time.

今年是选举年。

It's an election year.

国会面临着很大压力，必须尽快完成此事。

There's a lot of pressure on congress to get this done.

你知道，比特币社区的利益在很大程度上与加密社区一致，但并不总是如此。

You know, the the interest of the Bitcoin community are largely aligned with the crypto community, but not always.

我意思是，别袖手旁观。

And I don't I I you know, don't don't if if don't sit on your hands.

如果你曾经想过给你的议员打电话，现在就打吧。

If you've ever thought about calling your representative, do it now.

别被那种觉得浪费时间的感觉吓倒。

Don't don't, you know, over overcome overcome the feeling that, you know, it's a waste of time.

尤其是在选举年，这绝对不是徒劳的。

It's kinda not certainly in an election year.

发一封邮件或者打个简短的电话就够了。

You know, it takes an email or or a quick phone call.

让他们知道你是谁，你是他们选区的选民，你希望他们支持现行版本的BRCA法案。

Let them know who you are, your voter in their district, and you want them to support BRCA as written.

现在是关键时刻，机不可失，因为上周我感觉有点不对劲，我们正在密切关注。

It's now it's it it it's now or never because, again, I I I got some sort of weird vibes last week, and we're on top of it.

但你知道，我们是个智库。

But, you know, we're a think tank.

你知道吗？

You know?

而且你知道，不幸的是，我们是个智库，我们确实无法像行业那样去做那些事情。

And, you know, we can't, unfortunately, we're a think tank, and we'll unfortunately, we're a think tank that just doesn't, you know, do the sorts of things the industry does.

所以像比特币用户这样的人，要知道，这关乎你和你的比特币，关乎你自主保管的能力，以及有人为你编写代码的能力。

So Bitcoiners, like, know, this is about you and your and your Bitcoin and your ability to cut self custody it and your ability to have people write code for you.

对于像我这样不会写代码的人，不管是不是代码，都无所谓。

For those of you like me that can't write code, call it code or not.

所以给你的议员打电话，给你的中心打电话，让他们知道BRCA对你很重要。

So call your representatives, call your centers, let them know that BRCA is important to you.

如果你是个靠感觉编程的人。

And if you're a vibe coder.

扎克，我想回到这个话题，针对那些对华盛顿权力委托不太熟悉的人，特朗普政府期间，SEC和CFTC到底能实施哪些措施？

Zach, I wanna kind of circle up on this this discussion with just for folks who maybe aren't quite as familiar with the delegation of powers in DC, What exactly can the SEC and CFTC kind of enact during the Trump administration?

对吧？

Right?

比如说，这种协调行动会产出什么成果？是长期有效的，还是仅限于本届政府？

Like, what what would be the product of this harmonization event that would be either lasting or, you know, just for this administration?

然后，这又如何与国会正在讨论的市场结构问题相互作用？

And then how does that interact with basically the market structure conversation happening in Congress?

我们是否需要将协调会议中讨论的所有内容都由国会立法固化？

Do we need everything that gets discussed in this harmonization event to be codified by Congress?

这里到底是谁能做什么，具体怎么分工的？

What what's just kind of like the breakdown here of of what who can actually do what on this particular issue?

是的。

Yeah.

实际上，这种协调是对两件事的回应。

So the harmonization practically is reacting to two things.

第一件事是之前一届政府中，商品期货交易委员会和证券交易委员会之间关于谁应成为主要加密货币监管机构的权力争夺。

One is the opposite of harpization, the turf war that happened between the CFTC and the SEC in the previous administration over who was gonna be the main crypto regulator.

他们想推翻这一局面，逆转盖尔·詹斯勒时代的做法，不再让SEC成为主要的加密货币监管机构，我认为这只会持续到本届政府任期结束，但双方都会同意由CFTC担任主要的加密货币监管机构。

They wanna undo that, do the opposite of Gerr Gensler era, and instead of the SEC coming out as sort of the main crypto regulator, I think what we're gonna see is it's gonna last just for this administration, but they're both gonna agree that the CFTC is going to be the prime crypto regulator.

所以这是他们所应对的一个方面。

So that's one thing they're reacting to.

我认为他们也在回应对市场结构法案可能无法通过的担忧。

I think they're also reacting to worries that market structure is not going to pass.

市场结构法案会明确以法律形式确立CFTC为主导监管机构。

Market structure would make that plain as a matter of law that the CFTC is the main regulator.

我认为，即使法案未能通过，他们也想提前采取这样的行动。

I think they want to start acting that way even if the bill doesn't pass.

所以我认为，这至少在一定程度上是一种应急计划。

So I think this is a contingency plan in part, at least.

关于1960年的问题，我想再深入探讨一下。

And then on the 1960 question, I do wanna dig into that a little bit more.

这项具体法规的细节是什么？

What are the details of that, you know, particular statute?

更大的问题是，为什么这里要把这个当作替罪羊呢？

And and I guess the bigger question is, like, why is that being used as the scapegoat here?

是的。

Yeah.

在我们具体讨论1960年条款之前，我想先回应我们Patreon支持者本周最关心的问题。

So before we get to specifically 1960, I wanted to address the number one question this week from our Patreon supporters.

他们可不会轻易放过任何细节。

You can't get anything past them.

他们注意到了农业委员会审议草案中的情况。

They noticed that in the in the ag markup yeah.

向Bitcoin政策权力时刻团队致敬。

Shout out to the Bitcoin policy power hour crew.

他们注意到，该法案的农业委员会审议版本中，完全没有提到DRCA。

They noticed that the ag the ag markup of the the bill, there's nothing about the DRCA.

没有任何开发者保护措施。

There are no developer protections.

那这到底是怎么回事？

And what is that about?

答案是，农业委员会主要负责商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）相关事务和商品监管，因为历史上我们大部分商品都来自农场。

The answer is that the ag committee is really about the CFTC side of things and commodities regulation because most of our commodities historically came from farms.

这就是为什么农业委员会对此有管辖权，而这确实不是他们的职责范围。

That's why the ag committee has jurisdiction over this, and so that's really not their lane.

那是银行委员会的职责范围。

That's the banking committee's lane.

因此，肯提到的关于1960年和BRCA的问题，会在两个委员会达成协调草案时出现，但不会专门在农业委员会层面发生。

And so these issues that Ken brought up about 1960 and BRCA are going to come up when there's sort of harmonized draft between the two committees, and it is not specifically going to happen around the ag committee.

所以目前你不需要为此担心。

And so you don't you don't need to worry about that for now.

第1960条是一项刑事法律，规定在《银行保密法》之外，经营未经许可的资金传输业务属于犯罪。

Section nineteen sixty is a criminal law that makes it crime outside of the Bank Secrecy Act itself to run a unlicensed money transmission business.

第1960条包含三个子条款。

There are three subsections of section nineteen sixty.

没有联邦许可证。

There is not having a federal license.

没有州级许可证，还有一种奇怪的情况，出现在 Samurai Wallet 和 Traderio Cash 案件的定罪中，这实际上与是否拥有许可证没有直接关系，而是涉及作为资金传输者并明知传输犯罪所得。

There is not having state licenses, and then there is a weird one that ended in convictions in both the Samurai Wallet and Traderio Cash cases that actually doesn't strictly have anything to do with having a license, but it's being a money transmitter and knowingly transmitting the proceeds of crime.

这些行为都根据第1960条被定为犯罪。

And those are all criminalized under section nineteen sixty.

现在，肯提到的有两个概念，我认为，肯说的没什么错，但那些以所谓国家安全为由反对缩小第1960条适用范围的人，他们的观点是错误的。

Now there are sort of two concepts here in what Ken said that I think that, like, not what anything Ken said is wrong, but the people who are having, quote, unquote, national security concerns about narrowing 1960 that are that are wrong.

一方面，是认为BRCA正在缩小第1960条的适用范围。

I mean, one is that 1960 is being narrowed at all by the BRCA.

我强烈反对这种说法。

I would strongly disagree with that.

第1960条在三种形式的犯罪中都将其定为非法行为。

Nineteen sixty makes it illegal in all three flavors of nineteen sixty crimes.

被定为犯罪的是在没有适当许可的情况下从事资金传输，或明知传输犯罪资金。

What is being criminalized is being a money transmitter without a proper licensure or knowingly transmitting criminal funds.

如果你仔细研究这里的刑事法律，丹·巴拉本德从变异基金发表的一篇论文深入探讨了这一问题，详细梳理了‘资金转移’在第1960条中的历史含义，适合喜欢阅读晦涩文献的人。

If you look into the criminal laws here and there's a great paper by Dan Barabender from Variant Fund on this issue really looking into the history of what money transmission means for the purpose of section nineteen sixty for those of you who like dense larvae articles.

但剧透一下：根据第1960条，成为资金转移者的定义是接受资金后再进行转移。

But spoiler is the definition of being a money transmitter under nineteen sixty is accepting and then transmitting funds.

其他情况下，如果你接受了资金然后又进行了转移，仅从英语语言的逻辑来看，在这两个行为之间，你必然会对这些资金拥有保管或控制权。

Others, if you accept and then you transmit funds, somewhere in between those two things, just as a matter of how the English language works, you will have custody or control of those things.

BRCA法案的作用是澄清一个早已存在于法律中的事实：要进行资金转移，必须拥有对资金的保管或控制权。

What the BRCA does is to clarify this point that is already true in the law that you need custody or control in order to transmit something.

这就是‘转移’一词的本意，尽管我们在一些非托管开发者的起诉中看到了一些奇怪的、近乎奥威尔式的曲解。

That's that's what the word transmitting means despite some weird Orwellian twists on that that we saw in in some of these these prosecutions of noncustodial developers.

因此，我强烈反对那种认为这项法案是在缩小第1960条适用范围的说法。

And so I would strongly push back on, you know, the what this bill does is to narrow nineteen sixty scope.

我认为它只是澄清了这些概念的含义，阻止了政府对这些术语进行非法的过度扩张，这与‘缩小’是完全不同的。

I think it just clarifies it and stops the government from doing illegal overreach on on what those concepts mean, which is different than narrowing.

至于国家安全，我想这里确实存在一个有趣的哲学问题：执法与国家安全之间的区别究竟在哪里。

And in terms of national security, I mean, I guess there's, like, an interesting philosophical question about what's the difference between law enforcement and national security.

历史上，还有过其他势力范围的争斗，比如联邦调查局和中央情报局之间，关于各自在什么领域拥有什么职责。

And historically, there have been other turf wars, right, between, like, the FBI and the CIA about who has what role in in what.

如果我们真的担心恐怖分子，有无数种方式可以将恐怖分子的行为定为犯罪。

If we're really worried about terrorists, there are six ways from Sunday to criminalize what terrorists do.

恐怖主义之所以非法，并不是因为你可以编写非托管代码。

Like, terrorism isn't legal because we're not you know, because you can write noncustodial code.

中央情报局有各种方式可以追查与第1960条无关的不法分子。

There are all sorts of ways that, like, the CIA can go after bad actors that have nothing to do with section nineteen sixty.

第1960条专门针对执法问题。

Nineteen sixty is specific to law enforcement.

它界定的是什么行为构成犯罪，什么不构成犯罪。

It's what is or is not a crime.

洗钱仍然是犯罪。

Money laundering is still a crime.

犯罪仍然是犯罪。

Crime is still a crime.

而这里非常具体的问题是：发布允许他人转移自己资金的代码是否构成犯罪？

And the very narrow question here is, is it a crime to publish code that allows other people to move their own money?

如果你在这里提出国家安全的论点，那你就得坦诚面对它。

And if you're making a national security argument here, that like, you gotta be honest about it.

你所提出的论点是，如果我们不能因为编写非托管代码而将开发者投入监狱，就会损害国家安全。

The argument you're making is if we are not able to throw developers in prison for writing noncustodial code, then it is damaging to national security.

我认为，如果我们能更坦诚、更公开地讨论这个问题，人们就会发现它实际上多么荒谬。

And I think if we were having that argument more honestly and out in the open, it would be seen for as silly as it actually is.

所以，是的，我的意思是，我认为这些东西本来就是合法的。

So, yeah, I mean, I think this stuff is already legal.

我们在法院中已经有了些相互矛盾的判例。

We have sort of mixed precedent in the courts.

我担心我们已有案件带来的寒蝉效应，但《清晰法案》中最关键的部分，恰恰是明确澄清了我认为法律原本就已涵盖的内容，而不是像证券和商品法那样实际上在制定新规则。

I am worried about the chilling effect of the cases we've had, but the BRCA of anything that happens in the, you know, the Clarity Act, right, it is the part that is most clearly just clarifying what I think the law already is as opposed to, like, the securities and commodities law stuff that's actually creating new rules.

肯，你还有什么要补充的吗，还是我们

Ken, anything to add, or should we

没错。

move That's right.

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

现在，扎克，我希望那些写了这篇论文的律师们能给你报酬，因为现在他们的论文又多了五次浏览量。

Now and, Zach, I hope that those that those lawyers who wrote that paper are are paying you because they they're gonna get, like, another five views of their paper now.

谢谢。

Thanks.

我觉得很多事，我觉得很多方面我们静观其变吧。

And I think a lot just, I think a lot of the and we'll see what happens.

我觉得你听到查克·格拉斯利和迪克·杜宾等人的一些担忧，是关于管辖权的问题。

I think some of the concerns out of what you've heard from, like, Chuck Grassley and and Dick Durbin are about jurisdiction.

你知道，我觉得他们的观点也是，你们在修改法律，而我们是司法委员会。

You know, I think their point has been also, like, you're tinkering with the with laws here, and we're the judiciary committee.

所以我们拭目以待。

So we'll see what happens.

我同意扎克的看法。

I agree with Zach.

我的意思是，扎克说得太到位了。

I mean, Zach Zach Zach nailed it.

如果你想了解关于隐私、开发者权利以及为什么这是言论自由的人，那就去找扎克·夏皮罗吧。

Zach's if you want to talk to somebody about who knows about, like, privacy and the rights of developers and and why it is free speech, you know, talk to Zach Shapiro.

他担任政策主管是有原因的。

Head of policy for a reason.

最后谈一下市场结构。

Last thing on market structure.

上周我参加了国家能源与矿业峰会，那是一场非常棒的活动，这是我第二年参加了。

So I was at the National Energy and Mining Summit last week, which was a fantastic event, my second year going.

比特币公园太棒了。

Bitcoin Park is is awesome.

如果你还没去过，一定要找机会去一趟。

If you haven't been, definitely make sure you get out there at some point.

但作为圈内公认的政策专家，虽然我远不如扎克和肯那么消息灵通，我不断被问到的问题是：为什么Coinbase拥有这么大的权力？

But, you know, being the the resident kind of policy knower in the crowd, and obviously, I'm not quite as plugged in as as Zach and Ken, the question that I kept getting was, why did Coinbase have so much power?

对吧？

Right?

为什么会有这么大的争议？

Why was there such a stink?

为什么像莱穆斯参议员这样的政界人士会说，嘿。

Why were, you know, senators like senator Lemus saying, hey.

你知道，我们至少得部分回到起点重新来过，因为行业方面基本表示，没有法案总比现有法案好。

You know, we're gonna we're gonna have to go back to the drawing board at least in part on this because, you know, industry has, you know, basically said no bill is better than, you know, the bill as it stands.

对于那些通常不太了解华盛顿运作方式的人——我猜大多数人都是这样，我本人也是直到在这里加入BPI之后才开始了解的——

Just for folks who, you know, generally aren't kind of as plugged in on on how, you know, DC operates, which I I suspect is most people and was myself until, you know, I started here at BPI.

但为什么Coinbase在这个特定过程中拥有如此大的权力？

But why does Coinbase have so much power over this particular process?

其他行业也是如此吗？

And is that true of other industries?

这对整体市场结构有什么启示？

And what's the takeaway here for kind of market structure at large?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为有两个原因。

I think there are two reasons.

第一，当我们看到2025年的公平对待申报文件时，就会明白他们在这方面的政治支出非常巨大，这让他们拥有很大的话语权，而且他们在资金方面是最大的单一玩家。

One, we're about to get a crash course on when we see the fair shake filings for 2025, which is that they spend a huge amount of money on politics, and that gives them a big voice, and they are sort of the single biggest player in terms of money there.

第二是声誉。

And the second is reputation.

对吧？

Right?

他们的声誉恰恰与我们之前讨论的泰达所面临的负面形象相反。

They have sort of the opposite, like, the the what we talked about, like, kind of the stink that Tether has on it.

Coinbase 正好相反。

Coinbase has the opposite.

他们拥有光环效应。

They've got the halo.

他们是少数被视作房间里成年人的加密公司之一，尤其是那些对加密一无所知的主流左派人群。

They are one of the few sort of crypto companies that's seen as the adults in the room, especially by people on the mainstream left who don't actually know anything about crypto.

就好像他们听说过 Coinbase，对吧？

It's like they've heard of Coinbase Coinbase you know?

你看。

And look.

Coinbase 在塑造这种声誉方面做得很好。

Coinbase did a good job cultivating this reputation.

比如，他们在早期就做到了用户友好，那时候，你知道，当 Coinbase 刚起步时，人人都在用 Mt.

Like, they were user friendly and early at a time where, you know, when Coinbase got started, everyone was using Mt.

Gox。

Gox.

所以，他们被视为房间里最成熟的成年人，我认为这让他们获得了大量的社会和政治资本，而这些资本独立于他们在华盛顿花费的巨额资金。

So, like, they are seen as, like, a big adult in the room, and I think that gives them a lot of social and political capital sort of independent of the staggeringly large amounts of money they spend in DC.

但正是这两点解释了这一点。

But but it's those two things that explain it.

我觉得有趣的是，我们看到的一些报道，特别是埃莉诺·塔拉特的报道，非常出色。

What I think is interesting is some of the reporting we've seen has been great reporting by Eleanor Tarratt on this.

他们可能在这里过度发挥了自己的影响力。

They're maybe overplayed their hand here.

我认为，尤其是一些真正了解加密货币的共和党议员，他们会说：听着，Coinbase 没有资格代表整个行业发声。

And I think especially there are Republican lawmakers who do know about crypto, who are like, listen, Coinbase doesn't get to speak for the industry like this.

在像 Coinbase 这样非常担心稳定币的人，和另一些在 DeFi 和代币分类上有重大利益的人之间，存在着真正的分歧，后者会说：你在说什么？

There is a real split between the people like Coinbase who are very worried about things like stablecoins, and then, you know, on the other side, people who have a lot of skin in the game and DeFi and skin in the game in terms of, like, token classification who are like, what are you talking about?

你知道，这是一项糟糕的法案。

You know, bad bill.

这几乎是我们想要的一切，除了稳定币的收益。

Like, this is everything we want other than the stablecoin yield.

我认为，如果在这方面能达成妥协——说实话，我仍然持悲观态度——那将是因为像Coinbase这样的公司，银行不会回到谈判桌上来。

And I think that, you know, if we see a compromise on this, which I'll be honest, I'm still bearish about, it's going to be because Coin like, banks are not gonna come back table.

因为他们没有任何动力这么做。

To They don't have any incentive to.

是Coinbase会回到谈判桌，因为他们意识到自己太过分了。

It's gonna be Coinbase comes back to the table because they realize they overplayed their hand.

他们对平台上交易的代币类型非常关注。

Like, they, you know, they have a lot of skin in the game about what are the tokens that are trading on their platform.

这些代币是证券还是商品？在2028年新政府上台后，这真的重要吗？

Are there securities or commodities that really matters in 2028 if we get a new administration?

他们不想耗尽自己长期以来积累的善意。

And they don't wanna wear out the goodwill they have invested so heavily in.

扎克，接下来你有个跟进问题，然后肯就轮到你了。

Zach, follow-up question, then Ken will go to you.

你认为这是否反映了Coinbase对其商业模式的定位？

Do you think this is sort of indicative of where Coinbase sees their business model going?

对吧？

Right?

因为我认为，在稳定币问题成为其商业模式中更大议题之前，大部分时间里它主要是一个面向散户的交易所，当然也包含一些机构元素。

Because I think for, you know, for most of the time prior to the stablecoin issue becoming a larger question in terms of their business model, right, it was a a sort of retail focused exchange, and and there's obviously some institutional elements to it too.

但我的直觉是，这充分说明了他们对商业模式的定位，也许他们实际上正打算悄悄地从那种更偏向散户的模式转移，比如顺便投资一千美元加密货币的那种模式。

But, I mean, my my sort of gut reaction was, hey, this says a lot about where where they see their business model going, and maybe they're actually intending to kind of shift away quietly from that more, like, retail sort of, you know, invest in a thousand dollars of crypto, you know, on the side kind of business model.

你觉得这是个正确的判断吗？

Do you think do you think that's a good read?

是的。

Yes.

我的意思是，至少在很大程度上是这样。

I mean, like, at least in large part.

对吧？

Right?

比如，他们对稳定币的强烈反应显然表明了稳定币及其收益生态系统对他们有多重要。

Like, the stink that they're throwing up about stablecoins clearly says something about how important the stablecoin and stablecoin yield ecosystem is to them.

这显然是他们业务的重要组成部分。

That's that's clearly a huge part of their business.

他们提出异议的那一点，我想我们在之前的播客中讨论过，甚至是否构成问题本身都存在争议，那就是第505条，关于SEC对代币化的现实世界资产——比如公司实际的证券或股权——拥有或不拥有哪些权力。

The thing that they took issue with, I think we talked about on our previous podcast, that's even controversial whether it's an issue, this section five zero five about what authorities does the SEC have or or not have with regard to tokenized, like, real world assets, like actual securities equity in a company.

我认为他们把这视为未来。

I think they see that as the future.

对吧？

Right?

或者股票、债券以及房地产等资产将迁移到链上。

Or or equities and bonds and stuff and real estate going to move on chain.

我认为，零售投资者对购买下一个狗狗币或一层链之类的兴趣可能已经逐渐耗尽了。

I think we may have sort of worn out retail's appetite for buying the next dog coin or, you know, layer one, whatever whatever.

因此，这确实在某种程度上发生了转变。

And so, you know, that is that is definitely all shifting to some extent.

但你知道，他们仍然从加密货币交易中赚取大量利润。

But, you know, they still make a lot of money on on crypto trading.

我要说的是，公平来讲，Coinbase 也明确表示，开发者保护是他们在这项法案中不可妥协的红线。

And I will say, for what it's worth, like, Coinbase has to be fair to them, they have also said the developer protections are a nonnegotiable red line for them in the bill.

他们所面临的风险比任何人都要大。

They are more exposed than anyone.

他们业务中非常重要且发展良好的部分是他们的 Base 生态系统，这是一个以太坊二层网络，据我所知，目前仅运行在 Coinbase 地下室的一台服务器上。

A huge part of their business that's going really well is their base ecosystem, which is an Ethereum l two that, so far as I can tell, just runs on a single server in Coinbase's basement.

就像，你知道的，如果你要说，好吧。

Like, you know, if you're gonna be like, okay.

如果他们对 Base 这一非托管平台上的所有行为负有责任，而该平台已经获得了大量使用，因为它快速便捷，堪称 Solana 和 BNB 的有力竞争者，那么他们确实非常脆弱。

Someone maybe has custody or control, like, over the like, they're pretty exposed if they are responsible for everything that happens on their noncustodial base platform, which has, you know, gotten a lot of a lot of usage because it's it's fast and quick and is like a real competitor to, like, Solana in terms of BNB.

所以，是的，这确实说明了一些问题，但我们也别忽视了另一个事实。

And so I yes, like, it does say something, but I think let's not also lose sight of the fact.

Coinbase 在 DeFi 领域也有大量风险，而且他们在代币、证券或商品方面依然面临巨大风险，因为他们是这些资产的主要交易平台。

Coinbase has a lot of exposure on the DeFi side, and they and they continue to have a lot of exposure on are the tokens securities or commodities because they are a huge trading venue for that stuff.

如果他们平台上的所有东西都被认定为未经注册的证券，那我们已经看到过 SEC 以这个理由对他们采取行动时会发生什么。

And if everything on their platform is an unregistered security, like, we already saw what happens when the SEC goes after them on on those grounds.

是的。

Yep.

好的，肯。

Alright, Ken.

你有什么看法？

What you got?

我来说一下。

I'll say this.

上周我还特别看好布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗。

I was, like, I was really, really high on Brian Armstrong last week.

如果我们的听众中有谁知道一位名叫弗朗索瓦·维勒鲁瓦·德·加洛的先生，请在评论区举手。

Like, if any of our listeners can identify a gentleman named Francois Villeroy De Gallo, raise your hand in the comments.

他是法国央行的行长，上周布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗在达沃斯与他在台上就货币的本质展开了激烈讨论。

He's the governor of the French Central Bank, and Brian Armstrong at Davos last week mixed it up with him about the nature of money on stage.

太棒了。

It was awesome.

弗朗索瓦·维罗亚·德加洛，从他的名字就能看出，他堪称贵族全球主义者的典范。

Francois Viroir de Gallo, as his name, you know, sort of would would would imply, is sort of the epitome of an aristocratic globalist.

他和布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗就货币的本质进行了礼貌的辩论，探讨货币是否具有某种所谓的资产属性。

And he and Brian Armstrong debated politely, the nature of money, whether money is has a you know, what what it the role of estate money.

布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗表现得非常出色。

And Brian Armstrong really held his own.

这太棒了。

It was great.

这对Coinbase的首席执行官来说，真是一个了不起的时刻。

So it was a it was a great moment for, for the CEO of Coinbase.

回到我们刚才讨论的话题。

Back to the mark back to what we're talking about.

我同意扎克的观点。

I I agree with Zach.

我觉得Coinbase确实有一种感觉。

I think that there's a sense that that Coinbase yeah.

他们之所以拥有巨大影响力，是因为他们不断展示自己的影响力。

They have they have they have first of flex slap a lot of influence because they flex their influence.

布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗的公司是一家上市公司。

Brian Armstrong is it's a publicly traded company.

他不怕前往加州。

He is not afraid to come to Cali.

他经常待在华盛顿特区。

He's in DC all the time.

他不怕参与其中。

He's not afraid to engage.

他积极参与这一过程，而美国许多其他交易所的首席执行官却因各种原因不愿这样做。

He's part of the process, and a lot of the other CEOs of exchanges in The United States just don't wanna do that for for different reasons.

他确实这么做了，而且他在华盛顿特区有一支相当庞大的团队。

He does it, and he's got, you know, he's got a pretty big team in DC.

所以我认为，仅凭这一点，他就获得了不成比例的发言权，因为他真正置身于这场博弈之中。

So I think just that alone makes gives him an outsized voice because he's actually in, you know, in the arena.

所以我认为这是其中一部分原因。

So I think that's part of it.

我也觉得，为了公平起见，我得说说另一面。

I do also think that I know, I'll just sort of to to give the other side of the coin.

比如，上个月，银行业推出了他们的新组织——美国增长联盟（American Growth Alliance），代号501(c)(4)，这是他们对去年在国会立法事件中遭受打击的回应。

Like, we we saw last month, you know, the banking industry launched their their new five zero one c four, the American, American Growth Alliance, which is their response to the beating they took last year on legislative on legislative events on Capitol Hill.

去年在数字资产领域发生的任何事情都不符合他们的利益，他们对所有事情都感到不满。

Nothing that happened on digital assets last year was in their interest, or they didn't like any of it.

我认为，去年年底，银行游说者如果给自己打分的话，分数可能非常低。

And I think, you know, banking lobbyists at the end of last year, if they, you know, give themselves report cards, it was it was me probably deep.

我会给他们一个D，因为他们成功阻止了稳定币收益的立法。

We'll give them a d because they they did manage to block stablecoin yield in genius.

但去年银行游说团体遭受了重重打击，今年他们正在重新集结，我认为你会看到他们投入大量资金。

But the banking lobby, you know, took a lot of lumps last year, and they that they they've they're getting together this year, and I think you're gonna see them spending a lot of money.

谁知道他们能否与FairShake以及整个已建立起来的加密基础设施竞争呢？

Who knows if they can compete with, FairShake, and it's down crypto and that whole infrastructure that's been built up.

但他们肯定会尝试，因为我了解，因为他们公开表示过他们会尝试。

But they're gonna try because I know that because they're saying it publicly that they're gonna try.

所以我们拭目以待。

So we'll see.

但我确实认为，国会对这个问题已经感到极度疲惫。

But I I do think that there's so much fatigue on Capitol Hill on this issue.

他们根本不想再谈论这个话题了。

Like, they just don't wanna talk about it anymore.

当Coinbase如此强势地出现时，就像其他所有事情一样，我认为议员和他们的助理们都已经厌倦了。

And I think when Coinbase came out really, really strong, like everything else, they they was just like this this the the I think that the staffers and members are fatigued.

这已经持续了十八个月。

It's been, you know, eighteen months.

不。

No.

十八个月。

Eighteen months.

抱歉。

Sorry.

已经十二个月了，但这十二个月里，国会山上有大量与加密货币相关的事情，而之前我们根本没有任何相关议题。

It's been twelve months, but twelve months of a lot of crypto stuff on the hill, when before we had none.

加密行业非常积极主动。

And the crypto industry is very aggressive.

我昨天刚有一位助手告诉我，他在三周内收到了六个与Coinbase相关的梗图。

I had one staffer tell me just yesterday that, you know, he had six memes with Coinbase over three weeks.

在日程中花这么多时间去与一个许多选民并不关心的行业沟通，这可不少吧？

That's a lot of time in your calendar, right, to talk to talk to an industry about something that a lot of your constituents don't care about.

有些人关心，很多人关心，但也有很多人不关心。

Some do, a lot do, but a lot don't.

所以我认为，助手们多少有些疲惫，而且因为Coinbase是那个搅乱局面的公司，他们可能正在承担一部分责备。

So I think I think there was just a a little bit of battle fatigue on the part of the staffers and, you know, and because Coinbase was the one that threw sort of the the wrench into the gears, you know, they're I think they're taking some of the blame.

我们看看当大家重新集结时会发生什么。

We'll see what happens when when when, you know, everybody regroups.

也许可以等到下周，等农业部门那边忙完他们的事再说。

Maybe call it next week now that Ag is doing their thing.

是的。

Yeah.

我们走着瞧吧。

We'll see.

但话说回来，为克莱门斯辩护一下，你能不能从金融包容性的角度给我一个理由，说明稳定币的收益是坏事？

But, you know, in in Clemens' defense, like, I you know, make me make me an argument from the financial inclusion perspective that yield on stablecoins is a bad thing.

为什么稳定币发行方能从财政部获得收益，而持有稳定币的人却不行？

Why can a stablecoin issuer get yield from the treasury department, from treasury, but, you know, the person who holds it can't.

对。

Yeah.

你告诉我，这怎么算金融包容？

Tell me how that's that's financially inclusive.

嗯，祝你好运了。

I you know, good luck with that.

而且，如果你真的想推动全球对稳定币的需求，想象一下，一个每月收入只有几百美元的人，比如住在阿根廷、加纳或任何地方的人，也能从稳定币上获得收益。

And, also, you know, if you wanna drive global demand for stablecoins, like, imagine a world where somebody who lives on, like, a couple $100 a month can actually earn yield on a stablecoin living in Argentina or Ghana or wherever the hell.

对吧？

Right?

想象一下，这种产品的需求会是无穷无尽的。

Imagine the the the demand for that product would be insatiable.

所以我知道Quinten在这里提出了一些有趣的观点。

So I know quite makes this up interested here.

从这个角度来看，我确实能理解这个论点。

I'm I'm sympathetic to the argument from that perspective.

但即便如此，你知道，华盛顿的立场并不重要。

But nonetheless, you know, that's not DC is not that doesn't matter.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，没错，我认为人们对Coinbase所做事情的反应，很大程度上是因为市场结构问题已经持续数月，让人感到疲惫了。

So, yeah, I again, I think there's this the the response to to what Coinbase did is is a lot of just the fatigue of of, of, you know, market structure have been dragging on for months.

有没有可能这项法案在没有Coinbase支持的情况下通过？我是说，银行委员会的草案能否在没有他们支持的情况下推进？

Is there a world where this bill proceeds, you know, I guess the banking committee draft proceeds without Coinbase's support?

哦，我不这么认为，再说一遍，别忘了Coinbase是谁。

Oh, I I don't think I again, remember who Coinbase is.

他们是一家上市公司。

They're they're a publicly traded company.

他们在50个州都有业务。

They it works in 50 states.

我不认为Coinbase想让Brian Armstrong站出来公开说我们反对这项法案，然后法案却通过了。

I don't think Coinbase wants to be I don't think Brian Onshaw wants to be in, you know, in the return of the capital saying we oppose this bill, and then it passes.

这看起来会很糟糕。

That's that's sort of a bad look.

对吧？

Right?

不管发生什么，除非你真的、真的讨厌它，否则你永远不会讨厌一个在国会通过法案的人。

You, no matter what happens, unless you really, really hate it, you never hate someone that passes the way in congress.

事情本来就是这样运作的。

It's just the way it works.

因为Coinbase的性质如此，我的意思是，真的、真的、真的需要发生一些改变。

And because the nature of what Coinbase is, like, I I mean, something really, really, really have to change.

我完全可以想象这样一个世界：作为BPIs和比特币支持者，我们觉得‘呃，我们不喜欢这个，我们反对它’，但反对的理由与Coinbase完全不同，不过我会非常惊讶。

Can I definitely see a world where we, as BPIs, Bitcoiners, are like, ugh, we don't like it, and we oppose it, for things that are the reasons that are very different than, Coinbase, but I would be very surprised?

除非出现严重偏差，否则你会看到类似这样的评论：‘这算是一个好的开端，我们期待下一届国会进一步完善这项立法’，而不是说‘我们反对它’。

Unless something really goes off the rails, I think you will see, you know, I think you'll see comments along the lines of this is a good start, and we'll be looking next congress to further refine this legislation as opposed to seeing we oppose it.

嗯。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这个问题的答案绝对是不。

I think the answer to that is def definitely no.

我认为，除非Coinbase决定支持这项法案，否则它不太可能推进。

I think it's unlikely that the bill moves forward unless Coinbase decides that they like it.

但在这种极不可能却仍有可能发生的情况下，我同意肯的观点，Coinbase会转变立场，说他们支持这项法案。

And in the unlikely but possible event that that starts to happen, I agree with Ken, Coinbase is gonna flip and say they like the bill.

顺便说一下，我认为我理解Coinbase的立场，他们认为没有一个合理的理由能说明为什么他们不该提供收益和生息功能，因为现在你们实际上是在创造债务证券。

And by the way, I mean, to cancel it, like, I I also am sympathetic to the Coinbase's point that there is no principled like, the steel man of why they shouldn't have had yield and genius is because, okay, now you're creating, like, debt securities.

这不仅仅是支付型稳定币。

This is not just payment stablecoins.

这是人们在进行投资的东西。

This is, like, something that people are investing in.

但对此的反驳是，好吧，那就制定监管规则来确保其安全。

But then the counterargument to that is, like, okay, well, then make the regulations to make it safe.

对吧？

Right?

你看。

Look.

我们并不是在为一些疯狂的私人信贷融资开绿灯，比如那些由埃塞俄比亚牙医作担保的融资。

We're not we're not legalizing, like, crazy private credit financing backed by, you know, dentists in, you know, Ethiopia.

这可是由国债作担保的。

This is, like, it's backed by treasuries.

你的意思是，对吧？

Like, it's you know?

你需要有储备金，也许还需要许可证。

And and you need to have the reserves, and maybe you need a license.

这属于非常严格的监管。

Like, this is very heavy regulation.

所以这纯粹是银行的赤裸裸的保护主义，Coinbase 在这一点上是对的。

And so there's it is just naked protectionism by the banks, and Coinbase is right about that.

但你不能在这上面死磕。

But you can't die on that hill.

如果你对这件事稍作战略性的长远考虑，那也没问题。

And just if you take any strategic forethought about this, like, fine.

如果稳定币广泛普及，人们会意识到，嘿。

Like, if stablecoins proliferate and people like, people are going to realize, hey.

如果我还能获得收益，那将会很棒，而且未来要为添加收益争取政治支持也会更容易。

It'd be great if I also had yield, and then in the future, it will be easy to get political support for adding yield.

所以，与其把一切都搞砸了，不如先争取我们现在能拿到的东西。

And so it's better to take what we can get now than than blow this all up.

好的。

Alright.

今天最后一个话题。

Last topic for the day.

你知道，我觉得现在这显然是时代潮流，就是我们过去在这档节目中简单提过的货币贬值交易，我想用最后几分钟好好聊聊这个。

And, you know, I think this is obviously in the zeitgeist right now, but the the debasement trade, which we've we've spoken about briefly in the past on this show, but I wanna spend the last kind of minutes here talking about it.

所以，白银，我在录播前查了一下，大约是每盎司114美元，而黄金刚刚超过每盎司5300美元。

So silver, you know, when I checked right before we before we hit record, was about a $114 an ounce, and gold just over $5,300 an ounce.

这些水平都是前所未有的，而且至少在现代历史上，这种回报率也是前所未有的。

These are these are levels that that have never been seen, before and, you know, returns that have never been seen before, at least, you know, in modern history.

这里有很多内容需要梳理。

There's so much to unpack here.

我想知道，或者说这里更广泛的问题是，你认为这种货币贬值交易会持续到2026年吗？

I'm curious, whether I guess the the broad question here is do you see the debasement trade continuing well into 2026?

你认为我们目前看到的贵金属市场动能会继续下去吗？

Do you think that the momentum that we've seen, particularly in precious metals, will continue?

你觉得这种趋势会延伸到比特币吗？

And do you see this, extending out to Bitcoin?

是的，我觉得会。

I yeah.

我确实这么认为。

I I do.

你知道，白银交易方面，我从来没买过白银。

You know, the the the silver trade is I I've never owned silver.

我家里可能有一些，是我妻子在节日时摆出来的。

I probably have some in the house, that, you know, my wife puts out on holidays.

但说实话，我从来没想过要买白银。

But, yeah, I never I I I don't I don't I've never thought about buying silver.

但这确实是一个非常有趣的故事，值得观察。

But it's a it's a really interesting story watching.

比如，我关注了几个在Substack上写这方面的作者，纸面市场和衍生品市场正在发生的事情非常有趣。

Like, I follow a few people on Substack that write about this stuff, and it's super interesting, the the what's happening in paper markets and derivative markets.

这真的非常引人入胜。

It's just it's it's it's it's fascinating to watch.

这就像是金融的管道系统，我们平时总在抱怨金融管道、纸面资产这些东西，而太阳能交易正是如此。

It is like it is like financial plumbing, and it's like, you know, all of the things we we rant about financial plumbing and paper this and paper that, the solar trade is that.

这太惊人了。

It's remarkable.

我的意思是，花上一小时深入研究一下正在发生的事情，尤其是中国的情况，真的很值得，因为增值税导致了溢价。

I mean, it's it's worth it's worth nerding out for an hour, just to just to watch what's going on, and what's happening in China and, you know, and there's a premium because of VAT taxes.

白银市场上还有各种各样的交易活动。

And there's all kinds of trade stuff going on in silver market.

别忘了，白银之所以不是最好的货币，是因为它具有双重用途。

And then remember, silver also the reason why it is not, like, the best money is because it, you know, it has its dual use.

但它确实有用途。

So but it has uses.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，每次你发射地狱火导弹时，我们都在焚烧大量存在于导弹中的银。

I mean, you know, when you every time you'd be fire hellfire at somebody, we're we're we're incinerating a lot of silver that's in, you know, in in that in that, you know, in that in that in that, missile.

但从更大的角度来看，是的，100%。

But the larger picture, yeah, 100%.

我的意思是，如果你是金融市场的极客，你会关注日元兑美元的市场动态。

I mean, if you if you for financial market nerds, you watch what happened, in in Japanese markets in the yen versus the dollar.

目前外汇市场正在发生一些疯狂的事情。

There are crazy things going on in FX markets right now.

白宫似乎有意推动美元走弱，因为这在某种程度上是让在美国本土制造和出口产品变得经济上可行的前提条件。

The White House seems to be deliberately encouraging, the dollar to to to go down because that that's sort of a prerequisite for bringing you know, for for making it economic economically sensible to build things in The United States and export things in The United States.

所以我认为很多事情都是有组织的。

So I think a lot of this is is orchestrated.

我无法想象财政部现在正在经历什么，他们试图像控制缰绳一样，让这种缓慢的下滑得以维持。

I can't imagine what's going on at treasury now, as they try to, like, you know, keep a leash on you know, make this sort of a slow decline.

但我觉得，日本的情况中有很多东西反映了美元市场正在发生的变化。

But there's I mean, I think there's a lot there's a there's a lot going on in the Japanese story that sort of reflects what's going on in dollar markets.

但这一切最终都回归到货币贬值的贸易问题。

And but it all comes back to debasing trade.

我们之前讨论过这个。

And we talked about this before.

比如，过去几年里，世界已经决定不再继续沿用传统的美元标准。

Like, the world, you know, over the past couple of years has decided that that they're kind of done with, like, the dollar standard in in its in its traditional form.

我们不妨称之为国债标准，而各国正在采取行动来打破这一标准。

We'll call it treasury standard, and they're they're they are making moves to undo that.

我的意思是，现在黄金的价格，取决于你问谁，有些人说高一点，有些人说低一点。

I mean, right now, gold, it depends on who you ask, but gold is roughly, some people say a little more, some little less.

我们就说差不多吧，大致相同。

We'll just call it more or less the same, roughly the same.

各国央行的黄金储备规模，大致与外国央行持有的美国国债规模相当。

Gold holdings at central banks are are about the same as your treasury holdings at foreign central banks.

这是一个重要的信号。

That's a huge marker.

这很重要，因为如果你看图表，三十年前，几乎没有央行持有黄金。

That's a big deal because if you look at charts, you know, thirty years ago, there were very few central banks holding gold.

而现在，黄金储备几乎与国债储备持平了。

Now what they're it's more or less at par with with with treasuries.

我的意思是，你不需要是芝加哥大学的经济学博士，也能明白这意味着什么。

That I mean, it's not it doesn't take know, you don't have to be an economics major from the University of Chicago, PhD to figure that out, what that means.

而且，有趣的是，这背后有大量人为的推动。

And, you know, a lot of it's and it's interesting because it's orchestrated by a lot of people.

外国正在减少其美国国债持有量，因为他们只是不喜欢再受制于这个体系。

Like, foreigners are reducing their treasury holdings because they just don't like being under that umbrella.

我们正在稀释美元，因为我们必须这样做，以实现其他政策目标，比如再工业化。

We are debasing the dollar because we have to to achieve other policy goals, reindustrialization.

所以，各方面都表明，货币贬值趋势将持续下去，直到某种形式的重新调整。

So there's there's a lot of everything says debasing trade is gonna continue until it's some kind of reset.

我是说，为什么我们不能预期今年年底金价达到88,000美元？

Like, I I I I I I don't why can't we see gold at $88,000 at end of the year?

我认为你很可能看到。

I think you probably can.

也许会更高。

Maybe higher.

我的意思是，它确实可以。

If it I mean, it can't it can.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，它不可能。

I mean, I you know, it can't.

我的意思是，盯着看吧。

I mean, watch it.

你看，一年前白银还是每盎司27美元。

Like, silver was $27 a year ago.

对吧？

Right?

当你处于一个重塑时期时，各种平时不可能发生的事情都可能发生。

It it it can when you're when you're in times of reset, all kinds of crazy things can happen that, you know, normally, it can't happen.

你知道的？

You know?

但很明显，这些事正在发生。

But, clearly, it's happening.

黄金一天能涨一百美元。

Gold jumps, like, $100 a day.

这简直太疯狂了。

It's pretty nuts.

我认为这全都是底层交易造成的。

And I think that's all that is all the basement trade.

这里面有一点投机成分，但主要是大玩家在将储备转移到一种中立的储备资产，也就是这个。

There's a little bit speculation in there, but it's it is it is it's big players, you know, moving their reserves into a neutral reserve asset, which is that.

你知道吗？

I you know?

我确实很好奇，因为我一直得和康纳争论。

And I do wonder, like, I I it's I, you know, I I've been had to debate with Connor.

康纳已经加入了，你知道的，我的同事康纳·布朗。

Connor's already in you know, our my colleague, Connor Brown.

别光看价格，因为我一直在 obsessively 使用 TradingView。

Like, don't look at the price because I have, like, trading view up obsessively.

我总是盯着，天啊，又跌了，又涨了，诸如此类。

And I'm always looking, god, down again, up again, whatever.

这对我来说就像妥瑞氏症一样。

It's it's it's just a it's like Tourette's for me.

这纯粹就是一个小习惯。

It's just it's just a tick.

但你知道，我们看到的这些现象引发了大量关于比特币及其市场运作方式的深刻见解。

But I I, you know, I what we see you know, there's been some this has sparked a lot of interesting insight into Bitcoin and Bitcoin markets and how it works.

而且，理论上，美元的走势对比特币来说应该是有利的。

And, you know, theoretically, the way the dollar's going should be great for Bitcoin.

我认为，人们经常谈论周期，比如黄金周期通常先于比特币周期。

I think, you know, I and this last people write about cycles and how, you know, beat the the gold cycle usually precedes the Bitcoin cycle.

我们走着瞧吧。

We'll see.

再说一遍，你知道，今年年初时，我其实仍然相信，今年将是比特币实现自我价值的年份，因为全球舞台上正在发生这些变化。

Again, I, you know, I I've sort of, like, at the beginning of the year, I I actually still believe that this is the year where Bitcoin reaches that level of self actualization because of what's happening on on the global stage.

有趣的是，尽管我们各自有不同的立场——美国、中国、俄罗斯和欧洲对什么是真正的储备资产有着不同的看法，但我们都朝着同一个方向努力，即重新调整。

Things that, you know, then, again, it's interesting because we're all kinda pushing the same direction, right, to a realignment, even though we have different you know, Us and China and Russia and the Europeans all have different ideas with what real elements should look like.

但就目前而言，我们所有人实际上都在做着相同的事情。

But right now at this stage, we're all kinda doing the same thing.

所以对我来说，如果比特币真要发挥作用并实现它的承诺，那今年就是关键之年。

So I I to me, if Bitcoin is ever going to work and fulfill that promise, this is the year.

今年就是它要发生的时候。

This is the year it's gonna happen.

我知道，我们会看到的，但我认为贬值交易已经来了。

And I, you know, I we'll we'll see, but I I think the debasing trade is here.

在我们迎来某种重启之前，贬值交易已经存在了。

Until we get some kind of reset, the debate straight is here.

我当然认为至少到2026年都是如此。

I I certainly through certainly through 2026.

希望今年对我来说就是这一年，好吧。

Here's here's hoping it's the year for me, but alright.

我忘了我得走了。

I forgot I gotta run.

听起来不错。

Sounds good.

好的。

Alright.

我们下周再见。

We'll see everyone next week.