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价格是骗人的。
Price is a liar.
任何资产的价格都不重要，与价值毫无关系。
The price of any asset doesn't matter, and it has nothing to do with value.
你或我在任何资产上看到的所有价格，只不过是最后两个人同意交易一小部分时达成的共识。
All the price that that you or I see anywhere on any asset is just what the last two people agreed to trade a small amount of.
好的货币会淘汰坏的货币。
Good money is gonna crowd out bad.
最终，所有坏的货币、劣质货币都会消失，而它将成为一个价值十万亿美元的资产。
So eventually, all the bad money, the bad currency is gonna disappear, and it's gonna be a $100,000,000,000,000 asset.
欢迎收听《比特币杂志》播客，各位。
Welcome to the Bitcoin Magazine podcast, everybody.
今天，我们非常幸运地邀请到了唯一一位马克·尤斯科。
Today, we are super lucky to have the one and only Mark Yusko with us.
马克，你最近怎么样？
Mark, how are you doing?
我很好，非常好。
Doing great, doing great.
布兰登，谢谢你的热情介绍。
And thanks for the kind introduction, Brandon.
再次相聚真是太好了。
And it's great to be together again.
确实太久没见了。
It's been too long.
我确实收到了那份备忘录。
And I did get the memo.
我没有那件黑色T恤，但我确实收到了那份黑色备忘录。
I don't have the black T shirt, but I did get the black memo.
所以我们正在进行一场小小的比赛。你知道，如果你涉足比特币领域，你就会……哦，看，我需要那些周边产品。
So we have a little match going You know, if you're in if you're in Bitcoin, you got oh, see, I need the swag.
我需要那些周边产品。
I need the swag.
我们一定要给你弄一件漂亮的《比特币杂志》T恤。
We gotta get you a nice Bitcoin Magazine t shirt for sure.
我们会在下一期播客前给你准备好。
We'll get that for the next podcast.
是的。
Yeah.
好了，马克，我知道我们在开始之前聊过，我们现在身处一个冰雪奇缘般的环境。
Well, Mark, so I know we were we were chatting right before we kick things off about the winter wonderland we find ourselves in.
所以，这似乎是个不错的切入点。
So that that seems like a fun place to kinda start.
我有一些问题，但你先说吧。
And, you know, I've got some questions, but kick it off first.
如果让你概括过去24个月比特币周期的历程，你觉得最让你惊讶的是什么？
If you were to just give the narrative of what the past twenty four months have been in this Bitcoin cycle, what would you say that you saw that surprised you?
你之前预期的是什么？还有中间那些出乎意料的部分呢？
What would you say that you saw that you were expecting and and, you know, anything in between?
是的。
Yeah.
我很喜欢你用了‘周期’这个词。
So I I love the fact that you use the word cycle.
我仍然相信这个周期。
I still believe in the cycle.
现在有很多人会说，不，周期已经不存在了。
There's a whole bunch of people out there that are like, No, the cycle's dead.
好的。
Okay.
我的意思是，对我来说，有很多人都在各说各话。
I mean, for me, there's all these people arguing kind of past each other.
他们并没有真正倾听对方在说什么。
They're not really listening to what the other one is saying.
毫无疑问，比特币作为一种价值储存手段，就像其他价值储存手段一样，会受到商业周期和流动性周期的影响。
And there is no question that Bitcoin as a store of value, like other stores of value, is going to be impacted by the business cycle and the liquidity cycle.
这其实没什么争议，因为如果你仔细想想，一盎司黄金就是一盎司黄金，一个比特币就是一个比特币。
That's really not controversial because if you think about it, one ounce of gold is one ounce of gold, one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin.
它不是圆形的，也不像传统货币那样有标志性外观，但不管比特币是什么，只要有一个，它就是一整个，真正变化的只是人们用什么货币来购买它——无论是美元、玻利瓦尔还是欧元，其实都没关系。
Now it's not round, it doesn't look iconocical, but whatever Bitcoin is, if there's one, there's one and it doesn't What changes is the currency somebody wants to buy it in, whether it's dollars or bolivars or euro, it doesn't really matter.
所以，这一点我们可以接受，好吧。
So there's that element that, okay, fine.
我们可以认为流动性周期很重要。
We can say that liquidity cycles matter.
如果利率下降或上升，这应该会产生影响。
If interest rates are going down or interest rates are going up, that should have an impact.
好吧，这没问题。
Okay, that's fine.
但关于大家声称已经失效的四年周期，我会反驳说，正如你所提到的，在过去24个月里，它完全按照我们预期的方式发展了。
But this four year cycle that everybody wants to say is dead, I'll argue that to your point, to your question over the last twenty four months has played out exactly as we would have thought.
当然，人们之前一直在说：‘这不会发生。’
Now, again, people were saying, Well, it's not going to happen.
这不会发生。
It's not going to happen.
机构化和大量资金涌入，这固然重要，但让我们想想我的四年周期理论，也许还有其他因素，但我相信这是被写入比特币代码中的。
Institutionalization and all the money's coming in, that's going to Well, okay, but let's just think about my theory on the four year cycle and maybe some others, but I believe it's hard coded into Bitcoin.
四年一次，不是我们，而是开发者和代码规定我们要削减区块奖励。
Four years, we Not we, the developers and the code says we're going to cut the block rewards.
好的。
Okay.
这为什么重要？
Why does that matter?
想想看，区块奖励是什么？
Well, if you think about it, what are block rewards?
区块奖励是支付给矿工以保障网络安全的报酬。
Block rewards are payments to the miners for securing the network.
好的。
Okay.
很简单。
Pretty simple.
如果我们把奖励减半，在没有难度调整或其他因素的情况下，理论上有一半的矿工会因为成本固定而破产。
Well, if we cut those in half, in theory, without a difficulty adjustment or something else, half the miners would go out of business because their costs are fixed.
事实上，他们的成本可能还在略微上升，但总体上是相对固定的。
In fact, they're probably rising a little bit, but relatively fixed.
那么他们该怎么办？
So what do they do?
他们不会卖掉自己的比特币。
Well, they're not going to sell their Bitcoin.
这就像石油生产商。
It's like an oil producer.
如果你在生产石油桶，而突然你得到的价格下降了，你也不会卖掉它们。
If you're producing barrels of oil and suddenly the price that you're paid falls, you wouldn't sell them.
你会等到价格上涨。
You would wait until the price rises.
而这正是发生的情况。
And that's kind of what happens.
所以存在这种压力。
So there's this pressure.
为了解答这个问题，好吧，什么让我感到惊讶？
And to answer the question, okay, what surprised me?
我其实并没有遇到多少意外。
I actually didn't get many surprises.
我的意思是，那个预言说会正好在10月6日发生的人，其预测的精确性，
I mean, the precision of the prediction by the guy who said it was going to be exactly on October 6, okay,
这确实令人惊讶。
that was surprising.
是的，这很了不起。
Yeah, that's impressive.
但原本预计是在10月的某个时候，因为并不是整整四年，而是三年十一个月。
But it was supposed to be sometime in October because it's not four years, it's three years, eleven months.
我称之为3.11周期。
I call it the 3.11 cycle.
这是基于区块数量的。
That it's based on the number of blocks.
它不是一个日历上的四年周期。
It's not a calendar four year cycle.
所以人们都忽略了这一点。
And so people just missed that.
2017年是12月，2021年是11月，而2025年竟然出人意料地落在了10月。
It was December in 'seventeen, and then it was November in 'twenty one, and it was shockingly October in 'twenty five.
所以这一切完全按预期发生了。
So that played out exactly.
但对我来说，最重要的是这个周期中布尔值的差异。
But the biggest thing for me was the difference in the booleans in this cycle.
让我惊讶的一点是，在正常周期中——正常指的是我们实际上只有三个，这是第四个——我们通常会得到，让我退一步说。
The one thing that surprised me is in normal cycles, normal being we only have really three, this is the fourth, is we get Let me back up.
所以有四种类型的投资者或四种类型的市场参与者。
So there are four types of investors or four types of market participants.
投资者，那些以低于公允价值的价格购买资产的人。
Investors, people who buy things below their fair value.
你可以用7毛钱买1块钱的东西，这是一笔很划算的交易。
You can buy $1 for 70¢, it's a pretty good deal.
像我这样的价值投资者，就喜欢这么做。
Value investors like me, we like to do that.
当这些人开始买入时，价格就开始上涨。
As those people start to buy, the price starts to move.
这就是我们所说的加密货币春天、加密货币夏天，对吧？
And that's what we refer to as kind of crypto spring, crypto summer, right?
人们购买那些当前价格低于公允价值的资产，知道总有一天价格会上涨。
People are buying stuff knowing that it's trading below fair value, but someday it'll go up.
而这开始推动价格上涨。
And that starts to move the price.
当价格开始波动时，交易者就会进场，因为交易者需要价格波动。
Well, as the price starts to move, traders come in because traders need price movement.
你知道的。
You know?
就像那个梗里，用棍子戳那个东西，就是得做点什么。
It's like that that meme with the thing, you know, poking the the thing with the stick, just do something.
如果价格不动，交易者就赚不到钱。
If if the price doesn't move, trader can't make any money.
所以一旦价格开始波动，交易者就会进场。
So as it starts to move, the traders come in.
我对交易者没什么意见。
And I have nothing against traders.
我这方面的水平很差，所以我不做。
I stink at it, so I don't I don't do it.
但这确实很难。
But it's hard.
当交易员很难。
Being a trader is hard.
但如果你有技能，比如你在UTXO有一些伙伴，他们在这方面很厉害。
And but if you have skill, like, you know, you have some partners at UTXO, they're pretty good at it.
就是很难。
It's just hard.
所以交易员没什么问题。
So traders are fine.
没有好坏之分。
There's no no good or bad.
然后投机者就进场了。
Well, then the speculators come in.
现在，每个人都觉得投机者是坏的。
Now, everyone thinks speculator is evil.
但投机者并不坏。
Well, speculators are not bad.
投机者只是一个术语，意思就是对冲者的对立面。
Speculator is just a term, and it all means is the opposite of a hedger.
那么，什么是对冲者？
Well, what's a hedger?
对冲者是那些生产东西并需要卖出以支付账单的人。
A hedger is someone who produces something that needs to sell it to pay bills.
石油生产商、黄金生产商、铜生产商、比特币矿工。
Oil producers, gold producers, copper producers, Bitcoin miners.
那么，他们做什么呢？
Well, what do they do?
他们进行远期销售。
They sell forward.
他们在期货市场上出售他们的产品。
They sell their production in the futures market.
总得有人来承担另一方吧。
Well, someone has to take the other side.
我喜欢听到人们说，买方比卖方多，或者卖方比买方多。
I love when people say, oh, there's more buyers than sellers or there's more sellers than buyers.
不对。
No.
根本不是这样。
There's not.
每天买方和卖方的数量都完全相等。
There's exactly the same number every single day.
所以，是的，那个提出报价或出价的边缘交易者可能是买方或卖方，但他们的数量始终相等。
So, yeah, the marginal person putting the offer of the bid out is a buyer or seller, but they're always the same number.
当套期保值者卖出他们的产品时，投机者并没有真实的观点，他们只是在投机，对吧？
And so when a hedger sells their production, a speculator who has no real view or no They're just speculating, right?
他们买入套期保值的另一方。
They're buying the other side of the hedge.
当价格高于公允价值并开始推高公允价值时，他们就会买入。
Now, they buy as it gets above fair value and it starts to push above fair value.
因为如果你是套期保值者，当价格低于你的生产成本时，你是不会卖出的。
Because if you're a hedger, if it's trading below your cost of production, you're not going to sell.
这有点像为什么——我不想说坏话，但比特币在十七年多的时间里从未低于电费成本，这完全说得通。
It's kind of like why and I don't want to jinx it, but Bitcoin has never in seventeen plus years traded below the cost of electricity, which makes perfect sense.
对吧？
Right?
如果我必须支付电费，为什么要在价格高于这个成本之前卖出呢？
If I have to pay for electricity, why would I sell it until it's higher than that?
所以当价格高于公允价值时，他们就开始卖出，投机者就会进场。
So as the price moves above fair value, they start to sell, the speculators come in.
但接着赌徒们就来了，而赌徒们总是会出现。
But then the gamblers come in, and the gamblers always come in.
而且由于人们去拉斯维加斯或澳门的次数变少了，赌徒的数量反而增加了。
And the gamblers have been increased, like, because people don't go to Vegas as much or Macau.
他们可以在线上进行，还有体育博彩，但现在他们还能对市场下注，而且还能用杠杆。
They can do it online and and there's sports betting, but now they can bet on markets and they can bet with leverage.
这其实就是对发生的事情的长篇解释。
This is what just again, long answer to what happened.
在2017年和2018年，价格达到了公允价值的两倍。
Well, in 'seventeen and 'eighteen, we got to two times fair value.
那么公允价值是什么？
Now what's fair value?
公允价值是用梅特卡夫定律模型来计算的。
Fair value is a Metcalfe's Law model.
蒂姆·彼得森就是这么做的。
Tim Peterson does it.
很多其他人也这么做。
A lot of other people do it.
梅特卡夫定律是用来计算任何网络价值的方法。
But Metcalfe's Law is how you calculate the value of any network.
比特币就是一个网络。
Bitcoin's a network.
它是世界上最强大、最有价值的网络，但我们可以计算其公允价值。
It's the most powerful, most valuable network in the world, but we can calculate fair value.
当时是10。
Back then it was 10.
我们达到了20。
We got to 20.
明白吗？
Okay?
2021年，公允价值在30多，我们涨到了69。
In 2021, fair value was in the 30s, we got to 69.
而这次公允价值大约在80、82左右，我们涨到了120。
Then this time fair value was around 80, 82, and we got to 120.
所以我们大约涨了50%到126。
So we got about 50 126.
我们涨了大约50%，而不是100%。
We got to about 50% higher instead of 100.
所以理论上，回撤应该更小，对吧？
So in theory, the drawdown should be lower, right?
如果你的价格是公允价值的两倍，那至少要下跌50%，但你永远不会停在公允价值附近。
If you're two times fair value, you got to go down at least 50, but you never stop at fair value.
你会直接越过它，因为人们会恐慌并抛售。
You go right through it because people panic and they sell.
所以我们跌到了84、83、74左右。
And so we went down, you know, 84, 83, 74.
这次，如果我们只高出150，那只需要下跌33就能回到公允价值。
Well, this time, if we're only 150 above, we only got to go down 33 to get to fair value.
然后我们继续下跌，跌到了51。
Then we go through that, got down 51.
我不是说底部就绝对在这里。
Now, I'm not saying the bottom is absolutely it.
对我来说，冬天大约持续十一个月半。
To me, winter lasts about eleven and a half months.
所以那大概是九月份左右。
So that's sometime in September year.
是的。
Yeah.
通常来说，横盘整理才是最折磨人的。
And it's usually the sideways action that is the most painful.
对吧？
Right?
问题不在于下跌，而在于在底部附近横盘震荡。
It's not the down, it's the sideways bordering a around the bottom.
顶部。
Top.
隧道中的蛇。
A snake in the tunnel.
对吧？
Right?
你正在上升，你正在前进，看，现在一切都变得更快了。
You're going up, you're going and look, everything happens faster now.
这是众多变化之一。
That's one of the changes.
这不仅仅是比特币。
And it's not just Bitcoin.
而是所有市场都如此。
It's all markets.
事情变得更快了。
Things happen faster.
有大量的资金。
There's lots of money.
它们已经被武器化了。
It's weaponized.
拿Robinhood应用来说。
Take the Robinhood app.
我的意思是，我本人不用这个应用，但我看过，你知道吗，点一下按钮就能瞬间获得十倍杠杆，他们设计得让你就是想这么干。
I mean, I don't use it, but I've looked at I mean, can push a button and get 10 times levered, like, instantaneously, and they make it so, like, you want to do that.
再说一遍，这既不是投资也不是交易，这纯粹就是赌博。
Again, that's not investing or trading, that's just gambling.
这没问题，你想怎么玩都行。
That's fine, knock yourself out.
但这种无处不在的资本武器化，意味着市场运行得更快了。
But that type of weaponization of capital everywhere means that the markets are moving quicker.
还有一个问题，这涉及到这一切阴暗的一面。
There's also a problem, and this gets into the sinister side of all this.
有这么一个人，梅拉梅德，不算特别出名，但我觉得其实挺有名的，对吧？
So there's a not famous, but I think it's famous, right?
这位叫梅拉梅德的人，曾经是芝加哥商品交易所的主席。
There's this guy, Melamed, and Leo was the president of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
现在他是荣誉主席，与所有权力圈的名流都关系密切。
Now he's chairman emeritus, very connected guy with all the glitterati of the power brokers.
长话短说，他在2017年说过，别担心比特币这玩意儿。
Long story short, he said in 2017, Don't worry about this Bitcoin thing.
我们会驯服它的。
We'll tame it.
我当时就想，老兄，这用词可真奇怪。
I'm like, Dude, that's a weird word.
你为什么要用那个词？
Why are you using that word?
他基本上是在说，他当时正在和一群高管交谈，比如杰米·戴蒙这样的人，他们都说这是欺诈，是坏事，是邪恶的。
And basically what he was saying, he was talking to this group of executives, people like Jamie Dimon, who were saying it's a fraud and it's bad and it's evil.
而其他所有人都在说，我们真正不喜欢的是它抢走了我们的生意。
And all these other people are saying, Well, what we really don't like is it takes our business.
金融服务业务，特别是银行业，有着848年历史的技术，他们每年在全球从我们这里榨取7万亿美元，就为了让我们拥有信任。
Financial services business, particularly banking, eight forty eight year old technology, dollars 7,000,000,000,000 a year globally that they're extracting from us so that we can have trust.
而比特币技术给了我们真相，所以我们不再需要这种信任。
Well, Bitcoin technology gives us truth, so we don't need the trust.
所以这能将那7万亿美元重新放回我们的口袋，而他们并不喜欢这样，因为那是他们的收入。
So that can take that 7,000,000,000,000 and put it back in our pockets and they don't really like that because that's their revenue.
因此，当一种商品对他们构成威胁时，他们一贯的做法是什么。
So what they have always done when a commodity becomes problematic for them.
黄金对制造通胀的人而言是个麻烦，对吧？
Gold is problematic for the people who create inflation, right?
因为它在向我们展示真实的数据，对吧？
Because it's showing us the scoreboard, right?
黄金，就在不久之前，比如在你的一生中，或者在许多听众的一生中，每盎司才200美元。
Gold, not that long ago, like within your lifetime, within a lot of listeners' lifetime, was $200 for an ounce.
这和每盎司5000美元相比，差别可大了。
That's a lot different than $5,000 an ounce.
但黄金本身并没有改变。
Well, the gold didn't change.
一盎司黄金仍然是那一盎司黄金。
The ounce of gold is still the ounce of gold.
发生变化的是货币。
What changed is the currency.
我们印了很多钱。
We printed a bunch of money.
所以从2021年到2023年，黄金价格一直停滞不前。
And so gold from '21 to '23 was dead flat.
这怎么可能呢？
Well, how how can that be?
那些有权势的人，比如利奥·梅拉梅德，还有CME，他们创造了所谓的期货。
Well, the powerful people, Leo Melameds of the world, the CME, they create these things called futures.
期货合约让你能够操纵——直说吧——操纵大宗商品的价格。
Futures contracts allow you to manipulate, let's just call a spade a spade, manipulate the price of a commodity.
那他们是怎么做到的呢？
Well, how do they do that?
你想想看。
Well, think about it.
在过去的好时光里，比如说你和我都是老派人物，住在得克萨斯，是搞石油的，我土地上有些石油，需要卖给你去提炼并做成汽油出售。
In the good old days, say you and I are good old boys, we live in Texas and we're oil men and I have some oil on my land and I need to sell it to you to refine it and sell it as gasoline.
而我要把石油卖给你，实际上我必须真有石油才行。
And for me to sell you oil, I actually had to have oil.
想象一下。
Imagine that.
想象一个你必须真正拥有商品才能出售的市场。
Imagine a a market where you actually have to have the stuff to sell.
我的意思是，这想法有点疯狂。
I mean, kinda kinda crazy idea.
于是期货出现了，说：不。
So the futures comes along and says, no.
马克，你只需要和布兰登签个合同，承诺卖给他一桶虚构的纸面石油。
Mark, you just write a contract with Brandon saying you'll sell him this mythical paper barrel of oil.
只要你在到期日前完成结算，你就根本不需要真的去弄一桶石油。
Now, as long as you settle up the contract before the date, you don't have to actually go get a barrel of oil.
所以，如果我能凭空创造出一个纸面油桶，这就像是凭空创造法币一样。
And so if I can create a paper barrel of oil out of thin air, it's kind of like creating Fiat out of thin air.
如果我有一个价值50美元的油桶，然后我凭空再创造出一个油桶，那么它的价值就低于50美元了，钱也是一样的道理。
If I had a barrel of oil and it was worth $50 and I create another barrel of oil out of thin air, it's now worth less than $50 Same thing with money.
如果我这里有100万美元，然后我再印出100万美元，这笔钱的价值就会下降。
If I had a million dollars over here and I print another million dollars, the value of that money is just less.
简而言之，黄金一直以来都被操纵了。
So long story short, gold has been spoofed forever.
如果你观察它的价格走势，它曾经长期卡在200美元，因为期货市场一直在操纵它；后来它突破了，出现了一次短期逼空，涨到了400美元。
And if you look at its pattern of movement from that $200 it was stuck at 200 because it was being spoofed with the futures and then it breaks through, it has a short squeeze, it goes to 400.
然后它又卡在了你提到的那个平坦区间400美元，因为又被操纵了；之后它再次突破，涨到了1000美元。
Then it gets stuck at 400 in that flat zone that you talked about because it's being spoofed and then it breaks through and it goes to 1,000.
然后它又在2000美元的位置卡了两年。
And then it was stuck at 2,000 for two years.
然后突然突破，迎来了一轮陡峭的短期逼空行情。
And then boom, it breaks through and it goes in this parabolic short squeeze.
白银也是另一个例子。
And silver was another one.
白银的情况比黄金更糟，对吧？
Silver went even worse than gold, right?
它一度疯狂地呈抛物线飙升。
It went like crazy parabolic.
然后因为监管机构对摩根大通和其他几家机构因操纵价格处以十亿美元罚款，价格暴跌了。
And then it crashed because they fined JPMorgan and a bunch of other guys a billion dollars for spoofing the price.
这跟比特币有什么关系？
So what does that have to do with Bitcoin?
我们刚刚发布了13F报告。
So we just had, you know, 13F release.
13F报告出来后，人们说，看啊，Millennium基金持有大量比特币，Jane Street也持有大量比特币。
And the 13F comes out and it was like, oh, look, Millennium has, you know, a bunch of Bitcoin and Jane Street has a bunch of Bitcoin.
不，他们根本没有。
Like, no, they don't.
他们没有。
They don't.
他们买入ETF，同时做空期货对冲，但他们无需报告做空期货的头寸。
They buy the ETF and they short the future against, but they don't have to report the short future position.
所以他们是美元中性的，因为他们只是在捕捉价差，对吧？
So they are dollar neutral they are caused because they're just capturing the spread, right?
一种资产的期货价格高于当前价格，也就是现货价格。
The future price of an asset is higher than the current price, the spot price.
也不一定，但期货市场普遍持乐观预期。
Well, not necessarily, but the futures are optimistic.
我们总是认为价格会上涨。
We always think the price is going to go up.
所以你在这里卖出，然后滚动向下，对吧？
So you sell it here and you roll down, right?
到了月底，你就得重新操作一次。
And by the end of the month, then you have to redo it.
因此，在每个期权到期日结束时，我们都会看到价格、供需的巨大变化。
And that's why at the end of every options expiration period, we see this massive change in pricing and supply and demand.
所以，是的，对于长期而言
So yeah, For long
在家听节目的听众们，你刚才描述的，那就是展期交易，对吧？
the listeners at home, what you're describing right there, that's the Carry Trade, right?
是的。
Yes.
展期交易。
The Carry Trade.
没错。
Exactly.
没错。
Exactly.
基本上它想说的是，我总是说：小心你所要求的东西。
And basically what it says, I always say, Be careful what you ask for.
你可能会得到它。
You might get it.
我的意思是，我没这么说，但我从别人那儿听来的，忘了该把功劳归给谁了，但我一直这么说。
I mean, I didn't say that, but I stole it from somebody and I forgot who I'm supposed to give credit to, but I say it all the time.
这是真的，对吧？
And it's true, right?
我记得当时，我记得我们一起去参加比特币大会，可能是在迈阿密，那时比特币刚被定性为一种商品。
I remember when And I remember we were together at Bitcoin conference maybe in Miami And Bitcoin had just gotten deemed a security.
我的意思是，是商品，抱歉，不是证券，不是证券。
I mean, a commodity, sorry, not a security, not a security.
对吧？
Right?
大家都欢呼起来。
And everybody's like, Yay.
我却说：哇，真没想到。
I'm like, Woah, wow.
我宁愿被认定为证券。
I'd rather be a security.
我宁愿被认定为证券，因为商品现在可以用来创建期货。
I'd rather be a security because a commodity, now you can create these futures.
有趣的是，第一个期货合约的日期是2000年12月18日。
And what's interesting, the day of the first futures contracts, 12/18/2000
2017年那会儿正是高点。
It was the top in 2017.
对吧？
Right?
真的是高点。
Literally the top.
另一个期货市场创新的第二次发布，正好在2021年峰值后两天。
The second release of another innovation in the futures market was like two days after the peak in 'twenty one.
最疯狂的是，CME在5月29日又卷土重来，推出了一大批新的期货。
Now the crazy part is the CME is back at it May 29, they're rolling out a whole bunch more futures.
所以我担心这个夏天会很动荡。
So I do worry that this is going to be a bumpy summer.
但最终，我们会迎来春天，投资者也会回来。
But eventually, we'll get to spring and the investors will come back.
因为今天，公允价值稍微下降了一点。
Because today, fair value, it's dropped a little bit.
它曾经在80左右，但当寒冷天气来临、矿工停止运作以及其他一些因素出现时，网络价值会略微下降。
It was 80 ish and now when cold weather comes and the miners shut off and a bunch of other things, the network value does drop a little bit.
所以我认为现在的公允价值在70多，但我们目前低于这个水平。
So I think the fair value now is in the 70s, but we're under that.
昨天，我们的价格远低于这个水平，只有60，但在24小时内就涨到了67。
Yesterday, we were way under that at 60, and then within twenty four hours, we're at 60 seven.
因此，这种波动性，我们还得暂时适应一段时间。
So that type of volatility, we're just going to have to deal with for a while.
但投资者——一个很好的例子。
But the investors A good example.
因此，在我们的基金中，我们主要是风险投资者。
So in our funds, we are venture capitalists primarily.
所以我们把筹集到的资本的80%投资于构建数字时代基础设施的企业股权中。
So we invest 80% of the capital we raise into the equity of businesses that build infrastructure for the digital age.
比如人工智能、区块链、芯片和数据，我们投资过像Coinbase和Figures这样的公司，后者是我们最新的投资。
So AI blockchain chips data, and we've owned companies like Coinbase and Figures, our latest.
它们刚刚上市，迈克正在做很棒的工作，打造开放网络。
They just went public, and Mike is doing great stuff and creating the open network.
我们做过区块链相关的投资。
We've done blockchain.
所以我们做过很多不同类型的项目。
So we've done lots of different things.
但有20%的资金，我们可以持有协议本身。
But 20%, we can own the protocols.
但我们并不进行交易。
But we don't trade.
我们购买协议并持有它。
We buy the protocol and we hold it.
十年后，我们将其出售。
Ten years later, we sell it.
这就是风险投资基金的运作方式。
That's how venture capital funds work.
它们的周期大约为十年。
They're about ten years long.
所以在我们的第一支基金中，我们以5000的价格买入，以100000的价格卖出。
So in our fund one, we bought it at 5,000 and we sold it at 100,000.
这对我们的有限合伙人来说收益不错。
That was good for our LPs.
在我们当前的基金中，我们上周启动了一项计划，设定了本基金希望持有的目标，并将在未来二十周内每周买入5%。
In our current fund, we started last week a plan where we set our target, what we want to own for this fund, and we're going to buy 5% a week for the next twenty weeks.
因为我不够聪明，无法准确判断何时是底部，但我很确定，在未来到九月这段时间里，我们买入一些会感到欣慰。
Because I'm not smart enough to know when it's actually gonna be the bottom, but I'm pretty sure that between now and September, we're gonna be happy we bought some.
完全有道理。
Makes total sense.
所以，是的，我的意思是，这确实是一个有趣的周期。
So, yeah, I mean, it's it's been an interesting cycle.
对吧？
Right?
而且，你知道，我回想起来，我想减半是在2024年5月。
And, you know, I I think back to, I guess, the halving was May '24.
是的。
Yep.
但是，说真的，感觉这个周期，尽管可能没有在精神上启动，但它确实随着ETF的批准而启动了，你明白吧。
But, really, it feels like this cycle, even though maybe didn't kick off spiritually, it kicked off with the ETF approvals in, you know Yeah.
2023年，2024年。
The 2023, the '24.
而且，你知道，我们看到的是大量新参与者涌入比特币领域。
And, you know, what we've seen has been a massive entrance of new participants to Bitcoin
是的。
Yep.
以机构的形式。
In the form of institutions.
对吧？
Right?
在机构进入之前，它们实际上仅限于期货市场产品或其他类似工具。
Before the institutions, they were actually kind of limited to a futures market type product or or something else.
现在它们有了真正的ETF，使它们能够间接接触现货市场。
Now they have actual, you know, ETFs that allow them, you know, pseudo access to spot.
我们可以争论一下那里存在的问题。
We can argue about, you know, the the issues there.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
但哦，我本来打算获得伪现货访问权限。
But Oh, I was gonna get pseudo access.
这很好。
That's good.
是的。
Yeah.
而且同时，你还开始看到这些 treasury 公司涌现出来。
And and then you also, at the same time, you started to see these treasury companies come out.
你知道的，像 MicroStrategy 这样的精神战士，我们这么称呼他们，遍布全球，包括美国等地。
You know, the the micro strategy sort of spiritual warriors, let's call them, all around the world, in The US, etcetera, etcetera.
你甚至看到现在一些政府也开始试探性地介入，比如美国的 SVR，当然还有萨尔瓦多的做法，不丹、阿联酋，以及这些主权财富基金。
You even saw now governments start to dip their toes in, you know, The The US doing the SVR, obviously, El Salvador doing its thing, Bhutan, UAE, these sovereign wealth funds.
你知道，所有这些活动都在同时发生。
You know, all of this activity is happening simultaneously.
你说得对。
And you're right.
你知道，你可能会以为这会引发一场远超我们实际看到的疯狂繁荣。
You know, you would think that that would lead to a crazy, you know, boom well beyond what we actually got there.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我认为，弄清楚是什么阻止了这种情况的发生，是个很有趣的课题。
And so I do think it's an interesting exercise to figure out, well, what what prevented it?
你知道，发生了什么？
You know, what happened?
是什么让它戛然而止？
What what stopped it in in its tracks?
我觉得你确实提到了一些让我深有共鸣的因素。
And I do think you you hit on a couple of things that at least resonate with me.
第一，我们来谈谈，这些人是谁？
Number one, talking about, well, who are these people?
他们是投资者吗？
Are they investors?
他们是交易员吗？
Are they traders?
他们是套期保值者吗？
Are they hedgers?
对吧？
Right?
他们购买比特币，是真的相信比特币的长期价值，相信它能改变世界、让每个人的生活变得更好吗？
Are they are they actually buying Bitcoin because they believe in the the long term value of Bitcoin and its ability to, you know, change the world and and make everyone's lives better?
还是他们只是看到了一个可以套利的利差交易机会？
Or do they see a carry trade that they can exploit?
或者他们只是把比特币看作一种高贝塔的科技股玩法，打算围绕它构建某种投资组合？
Do they see some, you know, high beta play with a tech stock that they're gonna try and, you know, create some sort of portfolio around?
对吧？
Right?
我认为我们看到的大多是后者。
And I think what we've seen is a lot of the latter.
对吧？
Right?
比特币只是他们投资组合中的一小部分，他们几乎是在通过出售比特币的波动性来获取一种比比特币理论上应有的潜在收益更低、但风险略低的回报。
Bitcoin has only been a piece of some sort of portfolio construction where they're almost trying to sell the volatility of Bitcoin in order to capture some sort of upside that's that's less than what the hypothetical upside of Bitcoin should be, but a little bit de risked.
这让我意识到，这些新进入者还远未成为真正的比特币信徒。
And and what that has shown to me is that these new entrants aren't quite Bitcoiners yet.
你知道的。
You know?
他们还没真正理解。
Like, they haven't quite gotten it.
他们并不是以持有的比特币数量来衡量自己的成功。
They're not measuring their success by the number of Bitcoin they stack.
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他们用某种美元衍生指标来衡量，你知道的，就是给投资者的回报。
They're measuring it by some dollar derivative, you know, return to their their investors.
布兰登，这个见解太棒了，价格是会说谎的。
Brandon, it's such a great insight and price is a liar.
这句话我从约翰·伯班克那里学来的，我要给他 credit。
Now I stole that from John Burbank, so I will give him credit.
任何资产的价格都不重要，和价值毫无关系。
The price of any asset doesn't matter, and it has nothing to do with value.
不，马克。
And, no, Mark.
它反映的是未来现金流的折现。
It's a reflection of the discount streamer's future cash flows.
不。
No.
根本不是。
It is not.
并不是。
It is not.
你或我在任何资产上看到的所有价格，都只是最后两个人同意交易少量股份的价格。
All the price that you or I see anywhere on any asset is just what the last two people agreed to trade a small amount of.
我经常使用微软股票。
I use Microsoft stock all the time.
所以微软股票，你知道的，400美元，或者其他什么价格。
So Microsoft stock, you know, 400, whatever.
明白吗？
Okay?
成交了100股。
A 100 shares traded.
比尔·盖茨仍然持有大约120亿美元的微软股票，或者可能更多。
Bill Gates still owns like, I don't know, dollars 12,000,000,000 or something like that, or maybe it's more than that of Microsoft stock.
如果他试图卖出一百万股，你不会得到每股400美元的价格。
If he tried to sell a million shares, you would not get 400.
如果他试图卖出十亿股，他根本得不到400美元，这根本不可能发生。
If he tried to sell a billion shares, he would not get $400 It's just not going to happen.
比特币或其他任何资产也是如此。
And same thing's true with Bitcoin or any other asset.
所以价格和价值毫无关系。
So price has nothing to do with value.
它只是人们对于交易促成方式的感知。
It's just what people perceive the facilitation of a trade.
然后是蒂姆·彼得森，我已经和蒂姆谈过两次了，他是个不错的人，很聪明。
And then Tim Peterson, again, I've talked to Tim twice now already, so Tim's a good guy, smart guy.
他还有另一个观点，就是市值，这是我最不喜欢的东西。
He had another point, which is market cap, which is my least favorite thing.
对吧？
Right?
比如Oklo，对吧？
Like Oklo, right?
这个虚假的核能公司，这对夫妻团队，完全是骗子，他们在欺骗所有人。
This fake nuclear company, this husband and wife team, they're total scammers and they are scamming everybody.
这家公司的市值已经达到了数十亿美元。
This thing's gone to a multi billion dollar market cap.
他们没有任何产品。
They have no product.
他们根本不可能拥有任何产品。
They have no hope of ever having a product.
他们永远不可能生产出反应堆。
They will never produce a reactor.
相信我，这完全是欺诈。
Trust me, this is total fraud.
然而，市值——股价乘以股数——却给出了这个数十亿美元的市值。
Yet the market cap, the price times the number of shares gives you this multi billion dollar market cap.
难道人们只是突然醒悟，说这是一对夫妻的骗局，会迅速归零，就像狗狗币一样吗？
It's not people just woke up and said, It's a husband or wife scam, that will go to zero so fast or Dogecoin, right?
如果埃隆真的卖掉一个狗狗币，它的价值就会基本归零。
If Elon ever sells one Doge, that goes basically to zero.
所以市值只是一个荒谬的概念。
So market cap's just a silly notion.
比特币有点特别，因为在已经挖出的两千万枚比特币中，有三百万、四百万、五百万、六百万，或者某个数量的币，已经永远消失了。
And Bitcoin is funky in the sense that there's a whole bunch of Bitcoins of the 20,000,000 that have been mined, three, four, five, six, whatever, some number, they're gone forever.
所以当我们用当前价格乘以两千万时，这是不正确的。
So when we take the current price and multiply it by 20,000,000, that's not right.
这是一个不存在的虚构数字。
That's a mythical number that doesn't exist.
中本聪曾谈到过这一点，这很中本聪，顺便说一句，也许我们可以用一整期播客来讨论中本聪，以及他嵌入减半机制的智慧，为什么说这很聪明？
Now, Satoshi talked about this, which is pretty Satoshi, by the way, maybe we could spend a whole podcast just talking about Satoshi and the genius of embedding the halving cycle, which is why is that genius?
因为这创造了流动性，而我们喜欢流动性。
Well, because it creates movement and we like movement.
流动性能吸引关注。
Movement attracts interest.
这简直是疯狂的天才。
That's mad genius.
永远不可能发生51%攻击。
There can never be a 51% attack.
嗯，不可能。
Well, no.
不，是有可能的。
Yes, there could.
我们可以用量子计算机。
We could quantum computers.
不行。
No.
即使你有量子计算机，你也永远不会对比特币发动51%攻击，因为一旦你这么做了，它的价值就会归零。
Even if you had a quantum computer, you would never do a 51% attack on Bitcoin because the moment you do, the value goes to zero.
我的意思是，这种逻辑简直令人难以置信，太惊人了。
I mean, it's just mind blowing, incredible logic.
但他曾在一封邮件中提到，是的，有些币可能会丢失或被盗。
But he said in an email, yeah, some coins are going get lost or stolen.
把它看作是对社区的贡献吧。
Consider it a contribution to the community.
就像说，这正是它的本质。
It's like, that's exactly what it is.
因为，是的，兑换成这种更优货币的法币价值，会分散到更少的完整比特币中。
Because, yeah, the value of the Fiat that converts into this new better form of money gets distributed across a smaller number of full Bitcoins.
但我们并不一定要拥有一个完整的比特币。
But we don't have to own a Bitcoin.
我的意思是，作为完全的所有者当然很好，但你也可以拥有部分份额，对吧？
I mean, being a whole co owner is great, but you can own, right?
这是我的推特用户名：2.1千万亿。
It's my Twitter handle, two point one quadrillion.
这就是萨特oshi的总数。
That is how many Satoshis there are.
这么多萨特币啊。
That's a lot of Satoshis.
嗯，确实如此。
Well, yeah.
说到这一点，这实际上是你对网络的按比例所有权，对吧？
And to that point, it's what's really your pro rata ownership of the network, right?
你如何体现自己在随着时间推移被交易、存储和记录的更大价值网络中的地位？
How you represent yourself in terms of the greater network of value that's being transacted and stored and recorded over time?
那就是
That is
不，抱歉，布兰登。
the No, I apologize, Brandon.
唯一重要的是对网络的所有权。
All that matters is ownership of the network.
只要拥有它就行。
Just own it.
说到这点，但为什么现货价格没有随着这些新增需求而上涨呢？
To your point, but why isn't the spot moving with all this incremental demand?
确实有一些新增需求。
Well, there is some incremental demand.
有一些像Bitwise这样的投资组合公司，Hunter和Matt都是很棒的人。
There are some, like Bitwise, portfolio company, Hunter and Matt are great guys.
我很喜欢这些人。
Love those guys.
那他们到底在做什么？
Well, what are they doing?
他们正在走出去，向我来自的这个世界普及知识。
They're going out and educating the world I came from.
对吧？
Right?
我来自的环境，我并不是摩根士丹利或美林证券的经纪人，但我曾向他们销售产品。
I came from I I wasn't a Merrill Lynch broker or a Mark Morgan Stanley broker, but I sold into them.
所以我真的非常了解它。
So I know it really, really well.
教育他们，我走出去，在全球巡回教育他们关于另类投资，我得说想出这个词的人绝不是营销天才。
And educating them I went out and did the world tour of educating them on alternative investments when I would say whoever thought of that term was not a marketing genius.
人们不喜欢另类的东西。
People don't like alternative stuff.
另类医学、另类教育、另类音乐，他们喜欢传统的东西。
Alternative medicine, alternative education, alternative music, they like traditional stuff.
他们不喜欢另类投资产品。
They don't like alternative stuff.
所以当时很难推销。
So it was a tough sell.
但我还是去了，他们做了那些事，我让他们买了很多很多很多的另类投资。
But I went out and they did that and I got them to buy lots and lots and lots of alternative investments.
那么，他们为什么要这么做呢？
Well, why did they do that?
这是因为，如果你回想一下过去的投资方式——我年纪够大，还记得那时候，其实也没那么久以前，1982年之前。
Well, because if you think about investing in the old and I'm old enough to remember this, and this is not that long ago, but pre 1982.
对。
Okay.
如果你持有的不是债券，就会被认为是激进派，对吧？
If you owned anything but bonds, you were considered a radical, right?
你根本不是一个称职的受托人。
You are not a good fiduciary.
事实上，1979年《时代》杂志的封面故事，配图是一架纸飞机撞向股市，那时股市刚刚崩盘。
Fact, there's a cover story in 1979, cover story of Time Magazine with a picture of a paper airplane crashing the stock market had just crashed.
文章标题写着‘股票的死亡’，声称任何有自尊的受托人都不该再持有股票。
And it said the death of equities, said no self respecting fiduciary should ever own equities again.
想想看，对吧？
Think about that, right?
然后我们迎来了《雇员退休收入保障法》，时间没隔多久，1983年。
So then we get ERISA, not that long, 1983.
ERISA说，不，不，不。
ERISA says, No, no, no.
你必须持有股票，因为哈里·马科维茨证明了，最危险的资产其实是现金。
You have to own equities because Harry Markowitz proved that when you have the riskiest asset there is cash.
不，不，马克。
No, no, Mark.
现金是安全的。
Cash is safe.
不，不。
No, no.
它有风险。
It's risky.
你每天持有现金，都会变穷，因为政府通过法定货币掠夺你的财富。
Every day you own cash, you get poor because the government, through Fiat, steals your wealth.
自1913年以来，每天都在窃取我们的财富，却告诉我们这是为我们好。
Literally, since 1913, stealing our wealth every single day, telling us it's good for us.
在哪个星球上，布兰登？
On what planet, Brandon?
每三十年拿走我一半的购买力，这对我有什么好处？
Is taking half of my purchasing power every thirty years good for me?
没有任何星球上，这种事是好事。
There is no planet on which that's a good thing.
但这就像那个营销活动，我认为，只有将赌博重新包装为预测市场才超越了它。
But it's like that marketing campaign, I say, has only been surpassed by the one of relabeling gambling as prediction markets.
这真是太绝了。
That is so masterful.
我的意思是，这太疯狂了。
I mean, it's crazy.
预测市场。
Prediction markets.
这说法已经深入人心了。
That's stuck.
那就是赌博。
That's gambling.
总之，我们现在面临现金的问题。
Anyway, so we have this problem with cash.
所以我们投资债券，使投资组合的风险降低。
So we diversify into bonds and our portfolio gets less risky.
不，那不是。是的，确实是，对吧？
No, that's not Yes, it is, right?
因为波动性——是的，债券的波动性比现金高，但它们是不相关的。
Because the volatility Yes, bonds are higher volatility and cash, but they're uncorrelated.
它们的走势不同，因为它们基于其他因素。
They move differently because they're based on other things.
于是，我有了现金和债券，再加入股票。
So then I have cash and bonds and I add stocks.
我的投资组合风险下降了，而不是上升。
My portfolio risk goes down, not up.
不，这不可能。
Like, no, that can't be.
但事实就是这样。
Well, it is.
然后你加入另类投资，比如私募股权、风险投资、对冲基金，你的投资组合效率、夏普比率，即每单位风险的回报率就会提升。
So then you add alternative investments, private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, your portfolio efficiency, your Sharpe ratio, your turn per unit of risk goes up.
好的。
Okay.
这时候，比特币出现了。
This thing Bitcoin comes along.
如果你给投资组合加入1%的比特币，不多，就1%，你的每单位风险回报率就能提升约20%。
Now, if you add 1% Bitcoin, one, not even a lot, 1% to a portfolio, your return per unit of risk goes up about 20%.
哇。
Wow.
每年复合收益增加200个基点。
Make 200 basis points compounded per year.
现在，我甚至排除了前四年。
Now, and I'm even excluding the first four years.
在我看来，从2013年2月开始的前四年其实不算数，因为那时比特币还不到一分钱，规模太小，根本没法投入真实资金。
To me, the first four years don't really count from kind of 02/2013 because it was sub a penny and it was tiny and you couldn't put any real money in it.
但从2013年开始，你就可以投入真实资金了。
But starting in 2013, you could put real money in it.
即使只用这段数据，也能得到非常显著的收益提升。
Even using that data, you get wildly accretive results.
所以人们终于接受了这个想法，这些人希望永久持有比特币，作为投资组合的分散工具，但他们只会买入0.5%、1%、2%。
So people are finally given in to this idea, and those are people who want to own it forever as a diversifier for the portfolio, but they're going to buy half a percent, 1%, 2%.
好的，太好了。
Okay, great.
我们所有人都希望，那些比个人拥有更多资金的大型机构也能做同样的事。
Well, what we all hope is that other big institutions that have more money than individuals will do the same thing.
哈佛大学和其他少数机构已经这样做了。
Harvard, a few others have.
好的，这很好。
Okay, that's good.
这都很好。
That's all good.
那么接下来发生了什么？
So then what's happening?
嗯，再说一次，那些买家正在做的正是你所描述的那样。
Well, again, those buyers are doing exactly what you described.
关键问题是，为什么价格没有反映出这种现货需求的阶梯式增长？
The key question, why isn't the price reflecting this step function increase in demand for spot?
嗯，这是因为如果你回顾历史，我们会看到高点越来越高，低点也越来越高。
Well, it is because if you look at the history, we make higher highs and higher lows.
这需要时间，而且具有周期性，但我们的确在创造更高的高点和更高的低点。
It takes a while and there's cyclicality to it, but we do make higher highs and higher lows.
所以这是一种长期的积累模式。
So that's an accumulation pattern over time.
那么，主权财富基金呢？
Well, what about sovereign wealth?
战略比特币储备呢？
What about the strategic Bitcoin reserve?
我们没拿到这个。
We didn't get that.
明白吗？
Okay?
结果我们得到了《天才法案》，这并不像人们想的那么好，还有当前形式的《清晰法案》，糟糕透顶，简直和央行数字货币一样糟。
So instead, we got the Genius Act, which is not as good as people think, and the Clarity Act in its current form, bad, like super bad, like CBDC bad.
所以我们别搞这个了。
So let's not have that.
来吧，布莱恩，头号公敌，我支持你。
Let's Brian, public enemy number one, I'm rooting for you.
卢米斯参议员怎么了？
And what happened to Senator Lummis?
我的意思是，她原本站在我们这边。
I mean, was on our side.
现在她却在为这项法案奔走，这简直堪比伊丽莎白·沃伦的风格。
Now she's fighting for this bill that is like Elizabeth Warren worthy.
太疯狂了。
Crazy.
所以所有这些都在实时发生。
So all that is happening in real time.
但总的来说，你仍然有——我马上就不说了。
But up top, you still have and I'll stop talking in a second.
但我们仍然有那些不希望这件事发生的力量。
But we still have the powerful people who do not want this to happen.
对吧？
Right?
而且我们都听过那句名言。
And this is we all heard the quote.
首先，他们无视你，然后他们嘲笑你，接着他们与你斗争，最后你取得胜利。
First, they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
对吧？
Right?
无论是纳尔逊·曼德拉，我猜他也是从别人那里借鉴来的。
Whether it was Nelson Mandela, I guess he stole it from someone else.
我记不起那个人的名字了。
I can't remember the guy's name.
但从2009年到2015年，首先，他们无视你。
But 2009 to 2015, first, they ignored you.
没人在乎比特币。
No one cared about Bitcoin.
真的，完全没人。
Like, no one.
我是说，有少数人知道，但普通人连拼写都不会，根本不知道它是什么。
I mean, a few people, but but the average person couldn't even spell it, didn't know what it was.
而且，是啊，极客和宅男们在玩什么魔法互联网货币，随他们吧。
And like, yeah, nerds and geeks playing through magic Internet money, whatever.
从2016年到2021年，接着他们就开始嘲笑你。
From '16 to '21, then they laugh at you.
现在这些极客和宅男真的成了气候，有些人赚了大钱，做了不少有趣的事，但说到底，还是一群极客和宅男在玩魔法互联网货币。
So now the nerds and geeks were real and some of them were getting rich and doing fun stuff, but it's just a bunch of nerds and geeks playing with magic Internet money.
好吧。
Okay.
从2022年，我觉得一直到2027、2028年，那是他们开始对抗你的阶段。
Well, from '22, I think till '27, '28, that's the then they fight you phase.
我们现在正身处这个阶段的正中央。
We're right square in the middle of that.
这包括监管俘获——他们现在正试图用监管来控制一切，我们对此应该感到担忧并奋起反抗。
It's everything from regulatory capture, which is what they're trying to do with regulations now, and we should be nervous about that and fight against it.
还有，你知道的，市场操纵和金融化问题。
Then you've got, you know, the the spoofing and the financialization.
而且你还有那些恐惧、不确定和怀疑的战争。
And you've also got the the FUD wars.
我的意思是，他们不断重复这些疯狂的故事，真是令人惊讶。
I mean, it's amazing how they just keep recycling the same crazy stories over and over again.
而且我们早就已经解决这个问题了。
And it's like we've settled that.
但我觉得最让我困扰的是，你看，我不是一个技术专家。
And I guess the thing that bothers me most, right, is, look, I'm not a techie.
我不是那种真正懂代码的人，也不是从小就觉得这会成为我人生目标的人。
I'm not someone who really understands the code and and not someone who grew up thinking that, you know, this was going to be my my life's ambition.
但我是个服务行业出身的人，我接触了这个领域并去研究它。
But, you know, I I'm a finished services guy and I came to this and I studied it.
一旦我明白了它是什么，一旦我意识到它是一种更好的货币形式，你就再也无法视而不见。
And once I saw what it was, once that I saw that it was a a better form of money, you can't unsee that.
然后你就开始对它充满热情。
And and then you just get excited about it.
而且嗯，你
And Well, you
你知道吗，我觉得你正在触及一个非常有趣的观点，事实上，我非常认可摩根溪。
know, I think I think you're hitting on, like, a very interesting thread here, right, which is I actually, I give Morgan Creek a ton of credit.
我认为你们是第一家向养老基金推荐将比特币纳入投资组合的公司。
I think you guys were the first firm talking to pension funds, right, about adding Bitcoin into their portfolios.
这里有一个主题或问题：如何让那些最初只是把比特币当作一种交易工具的新用户，转变为真正理解其根本价值主张、并愿意长期持有而不担心对冲的比特币支持者？
And there is this theme or this question of how do you turn these new adopters that see a trade into Bitcoiners who understand the fundamental value proposition of it and are buying it or or exposing themselves to the long Bitcoin trade without worrying about the hedge.
迈克尔·塞拉就是个绝佳的例子。
Great example, Michael Saylor.
对吧？
Right?
你有一个上市公司的首席执行官，他正在买入比特币。
You know, you had a public company CEO and he's buying Bitcoin.
人们却说：‘你应该卖出看跌期权’之类的。
And people are like, oh, you should sell puts or, you know, like, whatever.
他说，不。
He's like, no.
我在买入比特币。
I'm buying Bitcoin.
我会尽可能长时间地持有比特币敞口。
I am going to be exposed to the Bitcoin price for as long as I can.
你知道吗？
You know?
而且我认为，显然，你已经看到了那只股票在他进入比特币交易之前和现在之间的表现变化。
And and I think that, obviously, you've you've seen what happened to the stock there compared to where it was, you know, before he entered the Bitcoin trade to now.
即使现在下跌了，他所做的这一举动也堪称不可思议。
Even though it's down, it's it's been an unbelievable move that he made.
市场已经对此给予了回报。
And the market has rewarded that.
我想知道，那些直接做多比特币的对冲基金、金融机构、主权财富基金和政府，会不会也出现类似的收益表现？
And I wonder, you know, if there is going to be some sort of similar performance profile for the hedge funds that, you know, go naked long Bitcoin, for the financial institutions that go naked long Bitcoin, for the sovereign wealths that go naked long Bitcoin, for the governments?
而且，会不会出现一种缓慢的、起初可能渐进，但最终打破这种CME对比特币的看跌保护或CME空头头寸的情况呢？
And and is there not going to be a maybe slow, maybe gradual at first, but eventually a breaking of this CME kind of put or I guess CME short on Bitcoin?
这又是一个非常好的问题，触及了整个故事的所有关键点。
Well, it's again, fantastic question and hits on all of the elements of the story.
比特币从根本上说是货币的未来。
So Bitcoin is fundamentally the future of money.
好的。
Okay.
那么，这到底意味着什么？
Now, what does that mean?
这是一个有趣的观点，对吧？
Well, is an interesting point, right?
货币是一种在没有负债的情况下存在的资产。
Money is an asset that exists in the absence of a liability.
好的。
Okay.
那是什么？
What is that?
事实上，那就是黄金，白银次之，还有铂金等稀有金属，本质上必须是一种稀缺资产，不能凭空创造，也不以债务为支撑。
Well, it happens to be gold, silver to a lesser extent, platinum, other rare Basically, has to be a scarce asset that cannot be created out of thin air and isn't backed by debt.
这是老J.
And it's the old J.
P.
P.
摩根的那句名言，对吧？
Morgan quote, right?
黄金就是货币。
Gold is money.
其他一切都不过是信用。
Everything else is credit.
我们所认为的货币——美元、日元、欧元等等——其实都是货币体系。
What we think of as money, dollars, yen, euros, whatever, are currencies.
它们不是钱，而是货币。
They're not money, they're currencies.
它们建立在货币之上，并由债务——政府债务——作为支撑。
They sit on top of money and they are backed by debt, government debt.
这并不坏，也不是邪恶的。
It's not bad or evil.
事实上，我认为复式簿记是人类最伟大的发明之一。
In fact, one of the few I think fractional reserve banking is like the greatest invention of mankind.
我的意思是，火和少数几样东西也算，但如果没有复式簿记，我们都住在泥屋里。
Mean, fire's up there and a few other things, but without fractional reserve banking, we all live in mud huts.
我的意思是，它推动了增长，因为如果钱只是放在房间里，我们盯着它看，它也不会带来任何好处。
I mean, it's what creates growth because if the money just sits in a room and we all stare at it, it doesn't do any good.
所以葡萄牙修士、圣殿骑士团，你可能不信，还有最初的光明会，对吧？
And that's why the Portuguese monks, the Knights Templar, believe it or not, the original Illuminati, right?
他们早就明白了。
They figured it out.
他们的一些人没有回来，于是他们的小金库里就积累了大量黄金。
Some of their guys didn't come back, So they had all this gold in their little vaults.
你知道的，我们可以把那些黄金借给别人去做别的事情。
And like, you know, we we could lend that gold to someone else to go do another thing.
他们会为此支付我们利息。
And they pay us interest on it.
转眼间，梅蒂希家族就创立了银行业，于是就有了今天的我们。
And the next thing you know, the Metciches created banking and and here we are.
所以这个理念非常重要。
So that idea is really important.
对于那些把货币看作底层资产的人来说，他们还没有接受这一点。
And so for people who look at it as the money layer, those people aren't buying it yet.
主要是中央银行和政府，尤其是中央银行。
Central banks, governments, mostly central banks.
因为黄金，每个人都可以拥有金币或几根金条，对吧？
Because gold, everyone You can have gold coins or a few gold bars or whatever, right?
这是你对抗彻底反乌托邦噩梦的保障。
That's your hedge against total dystopian nightmare.
还有那些关于人们在大屠杀中带着金耳环或其他金饰逃出来的故事。
And there's the stories that people got out of the Holocaust with their gold earrings or whatever.
所以这些东西都是真实的。
So that stuff is real.
因为黄金五千年来一直是一种完美的价值储存手段。
And that's because gold for 5,000 has been a perfect store of value.
但比特币更好，因为假设我有一块金条。
But Bitcoin is better because let's say I had a bar of gold.
我总是用这个例子，如果我是凯尔·巴斯，对吧？
I always use this because if I were Kyle Bass, right?
这位著名的对冲基金大佬会真的把手伸到桌子底下，掏出一块重26公斤的澳大利亚克鲁格金币。
Famous hedge fund guy, he would really reach under his desk like this and he would pull out a 26 kilogram Krugerrand from Australia.
它的价值大约有五十万美元。
It's like worth half $1,000,000.
我的意思是，这太惊人了。
I mean, it's it's amazing.
他把它藏在桌子底下。
He's got it under his desk.
他就像说：嘿。
He's like, hey.
这是真金。
This is real gold.
是的。
Yeah.
假设我有那么一块。
Let's say I had that.
我力气不够，根本搬不动。
I'm not strong enough to break it.
即使我能把它砸开，我也没法把它塞进电脑里然后发给你一部分。
And even if I could break it, I couldn't stuff it in the computer and send you a piece of it.
但只需轻点几下，我就能发送比特币，因为全世界的比特币都装得下这里。
But with a couple of taps, I can send you Bitcoin because all the Bitcoin in the world fits right here.
我手机上一点都没有。
I have none on my phone.
别对我进行SIM卡劫持。
Don't SIM swap me.
我不把比特币存在手机上。
I don't keep it on my phone.
它存放在冷钱包里。
It's in cold storage.
别担心。
Don't worry.
但我只需点击几下，就能立即免费发送到世界任何地方。
But I could send with a couple of clicks anywhere in the world instantaneously for free.
所以迈克尔·塞韦尔发现的是，我拥有货币。
So what Michael Saylor figured out is I own money.
我公司银行账户里存着现金，但真正的钱和黄金掌握在政府手中，理论上在诺克斯堡，也许不在，但他们确实拥有黄金，然后在此基础上印制这种货币。
I have cash sitting in my bank account at my company, but the government has the real money and the gold, theoretically in Fort Knox, maybe not, but they have the gold, and then they print this currency on top of it.
当货币数量稳定时，美元也保持稳定。
Well, when the currency amount was stable, the dollar was stable.
从1776年到1913年，美国的一美元始终值一美元。
From 1776 to 1913, a dollar in The United States was worth a dollar.
那时候根本没有通货膨胀这种说法。
There was no such thing called inflation.
现在价格在19世纪40年代的大萧条期间两次剧烈波动——不是大萧条，而是第二次国家银行被关闭后发生的最严重经济危机，因为他们不想保留银行，因为银行被欧洲人掌控。
Now the price fluctuated twice around the greatest depression, not the great depression, but the greatest depression in the 1840s after they shut down the second national bank because they didn't want to have banks because they were owned by the Europeans.
于是他们尝试没有银行的模式。
So they tried to go without a bank.
很糟糕。
Bad.
免费货币时代。
Free money era.
研究一下。
Study it.
太糟糕了。
It's horrible.
非常可怕。
It was awful.
有史以来最严重的萧条。
Worst depression ever.
远比大萧条更严重。
Way worse than the Great Depression.
第二次是在内战期间。
And then the second time was during the Civil War.
很糟糕。
Bad.
但在1913年之前，一美元就是一美元。
But up until 1913, dollar's worth a dollar.
1913年，杰基尔岛的产物——美联储，从那时起他们一直在窃取我们的财富。
1913, creature from Jekyll Island, the Fed, and since then they've been stealing our wealth.
所以迈克尔某天早上醒来，突然说：不，不行了。
So Michael just woke up one day and said, Nope, no mos.
所以我打算把我的法币换成比特币，这种价值储存方式会更优越，技术上也更先进，因为我可以用它做很多事情。
So I'm going to exchange my Fiat for Bitcoin and that store of value will be superior and technologically superior because I can do things with it.
现在他基本上用它构建了一个完整的资本结构，包括优先股和可转换债券。
And now he's basically created a full capital stack with it, preferred and converts.
他是你所描述的愿景的典范，即比特币将成为货币的基础层。
And he is the poster child for what you describe, which is the vision of the future where Bitcoin is the base layer of money.
默里·斯塔尔，你应该请他上你的播客，我认为默里是我认识的唯一一个让我对比特币显得悲观的人。
Murray Stahl, someone you should have on the podcast, I would say Murray's the only guy I know who makes me sound bearish about Bitcoin.
他其实很喜欢比特币，但他让我显得悲观，因为他会说：马克，你想得太小了。
Mean, love Bitcoin, but he makes me seem bearish because he's like, Mark, you're thinking way too small.
对吧？
Right?
你就像黄金的等价物，是的，它将成为货币的基础层，但不，不，不，不，不，不。
You're like gold equivalents and yeah, it becomes the base layer of money, but no, no, no, no, no, no.
这是逆格雷欣法则。
This is reverse Gresham's Law.
通常格雷欣法则说劣币驱逐良币，比如在津巴布韦或阿根廷。
We're going to and normally Gresham's Law says bad money crowds out good, like in Zimbabwe or Argentina.
他说，不。
He says, no.
这恰恰相反。
This is the opposite.
良币将驱逐劣币。
Good money is gonna crowd out bad.
所以最终，所有劣币、所有不良货币都将消失，它将成为一个十万亿美元的资产。
So eventually, all the bad money, all bad currency is gonna disappear, and it's gonna be a $100,000,000,000,000 asset.
正如他说的，你绝对应该请他来做客。
As say, you should definitely have him on.
他很棒。
He's he's great.
谁是最早的一批？
Who's one of first?
我正想说，你刚才提到的关于过去大约十八个月，尤其是最近两个月发生的黄金交易，这一点很关键。
I was just gonna say the you were hitting on something a second ago about, you know, this gold trade that sort of has happened over the past, call it, eighteen months, and then especially over the past two months.
现在有很多人说，黄金价格上涨的同时比特币价格下跌，这否定了比特币的理论。
You know, there's all sorts of people out there right now saying that somehow gold going up like it has and Bitcoin going down at the same time invalidates the thesis of Bitcoin.
我认为，你刚才说的确实如此，它们当然会……
And I think I think what you said Of course actually they
当然会。
would.
当然会。
Of course would.
我的意思是，它们当然会。
I mean, course they would.
但事实上，我认为你刚才说的更符合实情，那就是，这些中央银行只是在做他们五千年来一直在做的交易。
But what you said actually, I think rings a lot more true, which is that, you know, these central banks are just doing the trade that they've been doing for five thousand years.
他们，你知道，我认为目前中国的情况，就是那种推测性叙事所说的那样。
They are, you know, in the case of of I think it's China right now is is kind of what the speculated you know, speculative narrative is saying.
对吧？
Right?
中国正在减持美国国债作为其储备资产，转而购买黄金。
China is divesting from US Treasuries as their their reserve asset, and they're buying gold.
而且，你知道，就像，为你的中央银行购买黄金是自国家诞生以来各国一直在做的事情。
And, you know, like, buying gold for your central bank is something that countries have done since countries were invented.
这并不会否定比特币的价值。
And that doesn't invalidate that doesn't invalidate Bitcoin.
这只是意味着我们仍处于比特币最终目标的早期阶段。
It just means that we're still early on Bitcoin's ultimate
不，事实上，这恰恰是反证其无效性的对立面。
replacement No, fact, of it's the antithesis of invalidating.
这正是例外证明规则的地方。
It is the exception that proves the rule.
我来给你说，如果你不看最近九个月，而是看过去三年，比特币和黄金的回报率完全一样。
I'll give you So, if you just don't look at the last nine months and you look at the last three years, Bitcoin and gold have exactly the same return.
如果回溯五年，比特币的表现更优。
If you back up five years, Bitcoin's ahead.
回溯七年、九年，它们就又一样了。
Back up seven, nine, they're the same.
那为什么会这样呢？
So why is that?
因为它们本质上是一样的东西。
Because they're the same thing.
一盎司黄金就是一盎司黄金，一个比特币就是一个比特币。
An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold, one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin.
它们是相同的。
They're the same.
重要的是你购买时所用法币的波动。
What matters is the fluctuation of the Fiat that you buy it with.
但黄金上涨了，而比特币下跌了。
But gold went up and Bitcoin went down.
是的。
Yeah.
在2021到2023年间，比特币上涨了，而黄金持平。
And in twenty one to twenty three, Bitcoin went up and gold was flat.
所以发生的是操纵，对吧？
So what happens is the spoofing, right?
他们做空黄金长达两年，后来失去了控制。
They were on gold for two years and they lost control.
他们做空白银长达五年。
They were on silver for five years.
我的意思是，白银五年来一直徘徊在20到30美元之间。
I mean, silver was like $20, $30 for five years.
然后，突然间，他们就失控了。
And then boom, they just lost control.
而且可以说，摩根大通当时有传言称他们破产了，对吧？
And arguably, JPMorgan, there was a rumor they were bankrupt, right?
因为他们做空了全世界两倍的白银。
Because they were two times short, all the world's silver.
他们做空黄金被逮住了，这就是为什么推出了GLD。
They got caught short gold, which is why the GLD got introduced.
所以这种事情就会发生。
So this happens.
而现在所有的交易都集中在做空比特币上。
And now all the trade is on the short Bitcoin side.
他们攻击黄金是有原因的。
And there was a reason they attacked gold.
我跟你说过，对吧？
I told you, right?
他们不希望黄金价格上涨，因为那会让大众意识到自己正被掠夺。
They didn't want gold to go up because that tells the masses that they're being stolen from.
首先，你要跳出这个视角来看。
You got to zoom out, first of all.
其次，由于这个期货市场，任何价值储存手段之间的相关性都是间歇性的。
Second of all, the correlation of any store of value to each other is going to be episodic because of this futures market.
但从长期来看，它们的关联性会非常强。
But over long terms, they're going to be very highly correlated.
这一点在数据中确实有所体现。
That actually does show up in the data.
真正的问题在于，这根本不是问题，但区别在于绝大多数人早已形成了自己的信念。
The real problem is that's not a problem, but the difference is the vast majority of people, they already have their belief.
事实上，有一本好书，叫《信念》，名字很特别，讲的就是这个。
In fact, there's a book, good book, it's called Belief, fancy name, that talks about this.
人类形成信念的方式是错误的。
The way humans create their beliefs is wrong.
我们是如何形成信念的？
How do we get beliefs?
我们从父母、导师、媒体、教会以及我们钦佩和尊重的人那里获得这些信念，对吧？
We're told them by our parents, by our mentors, by the media, by our churches, by people we admire and respect, right?
不管他们是否配得上，事情就是这样运作的。
Whether they deserve it or not, that's how it works.
所以我们形成了自己的信念，然后收集所有支持这一信念的信息，同时拒绝任何与之相悖的信息。
So we get our belief and then we gather all the information that supports our belief and we reject any information that's counter to our belief.
所以如果你因为听了恐惧、不确定和怀疑的信息而相信比特币是邪恶的，啊，看，黄金表现得更好。
So if you believe, because you've been listening to the FUD, that Bitcoin is evil, ah, see, gold outperformed.
好吧。
Okay.
然后你就停在这里，不再回顾过去三年，说：好吧，其实它们在过去三年或五年里并没有表现得更好。
Then you stop at that and you don't look back over three years and say, okay, well, they didn't outperform for three years or five years.
好吧。
Okay.
那为什么呢？
Well, why?
你也不去下功夫。
And you and you don't do the work.
你不去做，而这里有个有趣的地方。
You don't and and here's the interesting thing.
我一开始是持怀疑态度的，对吧？
I started skeptical, right?
我是在2013年接触到这个的。
I got introduced to this in 2013.
我现在本可以富裕得多。
I could be a lot wealthier than I am.
我本可以买下那块最初的‘买入比特币’牌子。
I could have afforded the original Buy Bitcoin sign.
在我的办公室里，有一块克里斯蒂安送我的复制品。
In my home office, I have a copy that Christian made me.
其实我是在你的会议上认识他的。
Was actually I met him at your conference.
他让我想让他把原件卖给我。
And he made me I wanted him to sell me the original.
他说：不，它应该放在博物馆里。
He's like, No, it should be in a museum.
我说：它会放在博物馆里，我的博物馆。
I said, It will be in a museum, my museum.
我会和大家分享它。
And I'll share it with people.
我会让别人使用它，但把它卖给我。
I'll let people use it, but sell it to me.
他说：不，不行。
He's like, No, no.
所以他给我做了一个复制品，挺好的，非常棒。
So he made me a copy and it was nice and it's great.
上面还刻着一个名字。
And it has a name on it.
它很有价值。
It's valuable.
但后来他决定要把原件卖出去。
But then he decided he would sell the original.
所以他举办了一场拍卖。
So he did an auction.
我知道会发生什么。
And I knew what was going to happen.
我的意思是，有两件事。
I mean, two things.
第一，我妻子说：不行。
One, my wife said, No.
而且我绝对是无敌的。
And I'm definitely invincible.
好吧，你有个帽子。
Well, okay, you have a cap.
我明白了，这公平。
And I, Okay, that's fair.
所以我早就知道会发生这件事。
And so I knew it was going to happen.
一个比我成本低得多的比特币持有者会买下它。
Someone with a much lower cost basis of Bitcoin than me was going to buy it.
据故事说，我不知道这是否是真的。
And as the story goes, I don't know if it's true.
有个家伙坐在公钥酒吧里，他们说他是个无家可归的人。
It was a guy sitting in pub key and they said he was a homeless guy.
他当然不是无家可归的。
He wasn't homeless, obviously.
他的成本低得像几分钱。
And his cost was like pennies.
但当我第一次听说这件事时，我持怀疑态度。
But when I heard about it first, I was like, I'm skeptical.
我从未，而我想说的是，我做了研究，后来成了信徒。
And I've never And my point on this is I did the work and I became a believer.
我不认识任何一位开始时不持怀疑态度的人，那些真正做过研究的人，最终都爱上了它并成为信徒。
And I don't know anyone who did I respect that didn't start skeptical, that once they did the work fell in love and became a believer.
有一个人，只有一个，我不会点名，也不会把责任推给他，但他写了一本关于美元的书，所以他有偏见，却拒绝承认。
One guy, there's only one guy and I won't name names, I won't throw it under the bus, but he wrote a book about the dollar, so he's biased, but he refuses to acknowledge.
我觉得他就像彼得·希夫，对吧？
And I think he's like Peter Schiff, right?
也许还有第二个这样的人。
Maybe he's a second one.
我觉得彼得其实并不相信自己说的那些话。
I think Peter actually doesn't believe his own bullshit.
我觉得他只是为了吸引关注才这么做的。
I think he just does it for engagement.
他的儿子拥有大量比特币，但最终，我们相信我们所相信的，并且对此抱有部落般的忠诚。
And his son owns a lot of Bitcoin, but ultimately, we believe what we believe and we're tribal about it.
我们拒绝所有与我们信念相悖的信息，而不是去审视并说：好吧，从技术上讲，这是一种更优越的价值转移方式。
And we reject all the information that goes against our belief instead of looking at it and saying, Okay, technologically, this is a superior way of transferring value.
这是一种更优越的价值保障方式。
It's a superior way of securing value.
这是一种更优越的价值交换方式。
It's a superior way of exchanging value.
所以，如果我基于数据和事实，而非恐惧、不确定和怀疑，相信这一点，我就能看到你所相信的未来——我相信，BTC Inc. 相信，中本聪相信，我们都相信，这项技术、这个系统、这个网络。
So if I believe that based on data and and facts, not FUD, I can then see a future that you believe, I believe, you know, BTC Inc.
不仅它是世界上最强劲的计算网络，这个数据简直疯狂。
Believes, Nakamoto believes, we all believe that this technology, this system, this network, not only is it the most powerful computing network in the world, this is a crazy stat.
比特币区块链网络的算力是欧洲核子研究中心超级计算机的1500倍，不是1500%，而是1500倍。
The Bitcoin blockchain network is 1,500 times, not 1500%, 1,500 times more powerful than the CERN supercomputer.
这相当酷。
It's pretty cool.
哇。
Wow.
所以拥有这个网络的一部分，回到我们最初的话题，这是很合理的。
So owning And a piece of that network back to our original conversation just makes sense.
但你不必一次性全部投入，而且你很可能不应该一次性全部投入。
And but you don't have to do it all at once and you probably shouldn't do it all at once.
你应该随着时间的推移逐步积累。
You should probably accumulate over time.
但我们需要的是那些不只专注于单一目标的人。
But what we need are people who are who are not unifocused on the one.
所以迈克尔·塞勒买了它，并说：我不想持有法币。
So Michael Saylor bought it and said, I don't want to own Fiat.
我想保护我的法币。
I want to protect my Fiat.
因此有很多人都是这样做的。
So there are a lot of people that do that.
他们会觉得：好吧，我把现金拿出来买它，这样会更好。
They're like, Okay, I'll take my cash and I'll buy it and it'll be better.
但等等，等等，它波动很大。
But wait, wait, it's volatile.
是的，确实如此。
Yes, it is.
这是特点，不是缺陷。
It's a feature, not a bug.
为什么？
Why?
还记得我之前说过的马科维茨吗？
Remember what I said about Markowitz?
对。
Right.
如果我加入一个不相关的资产到我的投资组合中，我就赢了。
If I take an asset that's uncorrelated and I add it to my portfolio, I win.
那么，不相关性从何而来？
Well, where does uncorrelation come from?
它来自于不同时段的波动性。
It comes from volatility at different times.
如果它一直静止不动，那就是完全相关的。
If it just sits there, it's perfectly correlated.
我喜欢波动性，因为它正是创造财富的方式。
Volatility, I love it because what it does is it is how you create wealth.
如果我们把所有资产都放在低波动性的资产里，那波动性到底意味着什么？
If we put all our assets in low volatility assets, what does volatility mean anyway?
波动性 simply 就是对未来结果的分歧。
Volatility is simply disagreement about a future outcome.
国债之所以没有波动性，是因为每个人都同意91天后我会收到付款。
The reason T bills have no volatility because everybody agrees that in ninety one days I'm going to get paid.
有99.9999%的几率兑付，违约的可能性极小。
99.9999% chance, small chance of default.
这太无聊了。
It's boring.
亚马逊。
Amazon.
亚马逊和比特币具有相同的波动性。
Amazon and Bitcoin have the same volatility.
亚马逊已经是一家上市公司三十年了。
Amazon has been a public company for thirty years.
它每年都有两位数的回撤，包括今年，就像现在这样。
It's had a double digit drawdown every year, including this year, like right now.
这太疯狂了。
This is crazy.
平均31%。
Average 31%.
去年，正好下跌了31%。
Last year, went down 31% precisely.
好的。
Okay.
什么时候是卖出的正确时机？
When was the right time to sell?
从不。
Never.
但有谁在三十年前买入并持有到今天呢？
But who bought thirty years ago and held to today?
我想说的是，有五个人：杰夫、妈妈、爸爸、前妻和比尔·米勒。
I would say there's five Jeff, mom, dad, ex wife, and Bill Miller.
就这些人。
That's it.
老比尔·米勒，不是你认识的那个比尔·米勒，而是他父亲。
The old Bill Miller, not Bill Miller, you know, but his dad.
他的成本是7美分。
His cost is 7¢.
7美分。
7¢.
他一直持有至今。
He's held forever.
但他平均每年都要经历一次31%的跌幅。
But he's held through a 31% decline every single year on average.
两次跌幅超过50%，一次超过90%。
Twice, more than 50, once more than 90.
但从来都不是卖出的正确时机。
So but it was never the right time to sell.
所以他意识到，我就继续不断加仓这个头寸。
So he figured out, I'm just gonna keep accumulating that position.
那些把波动视为优势而非缺陷的人，明白它能为投资组合提供多元化作用。
And so those people that see the volatility as a feature, not a bug, they understand that it's a diversifier for their portfolio.
它根本不是一种好的现金替代品。
It's really not a good cash substitute.
对吧？
Right?
如果你需要支付账单，它不是一个好的现金替代品。
If you need to pay the bills, it's not a good cash substitute.
迈克尔能做到是因为他确实有其他现金可以支付账单，但它并非完美的现金替代品。
Michael could do it because he did have some other cash that he could pay the bills, but it's not a perfect cash substitute.
长期来看，它是最好的保护，是最好的储蓄银行。
Long term, it is the best protections, the best savings bank.
对我来说，记住你有三个资金池。
To me, remember you got three buckets.
你有你的消费资金池，占10%到15%，用于支付账单。
You got your spending bucket, 10 to 15% to pay the bills.
这部分需要保持流动性。
That needs to be liquid.
不幸的是，它需要是法币，因为我们生活在一个法币世界。
Unfortunately, it needs to be Fiat because we live in a Fiat world.
总有一天会是比特币，但现在还不是时候。
Someday Bitcoin, but not yet.
你有10%到15%的资金在‘致富桶’里。
You got your 10% to 15% in the get rich bucket.
那是用来做有趣的事情的，比如朋友公寓的交易、姐夫的风险投资交易。
That's to do the fun stuff, the friend's condo deal, the brother in law's venture deal.
你可能会全部亏掉。
You're to lose all that.
保持小额。
Keep it small.
不，我只是在开玩笑。
No, I'm just kidding.
这确实是你致富的地方，对吧？
That's literally where you get rich, right?
这就是你进行那些疯狂尝试的地方，如果成功了，那就太棒了。
That's where you do the crazy stuff that if it works out, great.
这是一种幂律分布，并不是每件事都能成功。
It's a power law, not everything works.
但在中间的‘保持财富’部分，你希望构建一个多元化投资组合，同时接纳那些彼此不相关的波动性资产。
But then in the middle, in that stay rich bucket, that you want to do a diversified portfolio, but you want to embrace volatile assets that are uncorrelated.
这就是为什么比特币如此完美。
That's why Bitcoin's so perfect.
它与所有资产都无关。
It's uncorrelated to everything.
它与债券的相关性为0.0，与股票的相关性为0.15。
It's zero point zero correlated to bonds and 0.15 correlated to stocks.
不，马克。
No, Mark.
去年它的相关性高达90%。
Last year it was 90% Yeah.
在危机和下跌市场中，短期内所有资产的相关性都会趋近于1，但长期来看并非如此。
In crises, in down markets, everything goes to all correlations go to one over the short term, but not over the long term.
相关性统计中的波动性，如果你的观测值不足100个，这些数据就没什么用。
Volatility in correlation statistics, if you don't have 100 plus observations, it's not really useful data.
这是我最喜欢的一句话：数字会撒谎，撒谎者会算数，而统计学家最糟糕。
It's one of my favorite lines, Figures lie and liars figure and statisticians are the worst.
85%的统计数据都是临时编造的，包括这句话在内。
85% of statistics are made up on the spot, including that.
不，我只是在开玩笑。
No, I'm just kidding.
但确实有85%的统计数据是编造的。
But 85% of statistics are made up.
所以关注信号，而不是噪音，你就会没事。
So focus on the signal, not the noise, and you'll be fine.
欢迎来到《预测》。
Welcome to Predict.
世界就是一个市场。
The world is a market.
一切都是市场。
Everything is a market.
每一条新闻都会影响走势。
Every headline moves the line.
每一刻都是你的市场。
Every moment is your market.
判断走势。
Call the moves.
相信你的直觉下注。
Bet on your instinct.
你的预测。
Your prediction.
你的优势。
Your edge.
双位。
Dual Bits.
预测。
Predict.
在这里，一切皆市场。
Where everything is a market.
《比特币杂志》不仅仅是纸上的墨水。
Bitcoin Magazine is more than ink on paper.
它是工作量证明的实物印证，是我们正在经历的这场革命的有形见证。
It's printed proof of work, a tangible artifact of the revolution we're living through.
拥有比特币故事的一部分。
Own a piece of Bitcoin's story.
立即订阅《比特币杂志》印刷版，将历史握在手中。
Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine print today and keep history in your hands.
如果我能将这一切总结为我们当前所处的这个有趣的历史时刻。
Well, and if I could sort of wrap that all into kind of an interesting point in time that we're in right now.
其实我刚才在上一分钟还在查看。
We've seen I was actually just checking during the last minute.
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