迈克尔·塞勒2026年策略世界主题演讲：数字信贷

感谢您今天参与。

Thanks for joining me today.

今天的演讲是关于每个人最喜欢的话题。

This talk is about everybody's favorite subject.

我将和你们讨论如何赚钱。

I'm going to speak with you about how to make money.

字面意义上的如何赚钱。

Literally, how to make money.

如何为你所爱的人、你自己、你的公司、你的上市公司、你的国家以及一切你珍视的事物赚钱。

How to make money for your family, for yourself, for your company, for your public company, for your country, for everything you love.

特别是，我将讨论如何通过数字方式赚钱。

And specifically, I'm going talk about how to make money digitally.

本次演讲的标题是数字信用。

And the title of the talk is Digital Credit.

但事实上，这关乎我们对金钱认知的一场革命。

But really, this is about a revolution in the way we think about money.

那我们先从数字信用这个话题开始吧。

So let's just start with the subject of digital credit.

你知道，什么是数字信用？

You know, what is digital credit?

数字信用是建立在数字资本之上的。

Well, digital credit is built on digital capital.

而数字资本就是比特币。

Well, digital capital is Bitcoin.

我们如何创造比特币？

How do we create Bitcoin?

我们把一些现有的技术组合在一起：工作量证明、公钥加密、点对点网络、分布式时间戳，还有一些半导体技术。

Well, we put together a bunch of technologies that were available: proof of work, public key cryptography, peer to peer networking, distributed time stamping, some semiconductor technology.

当然，根本的问题是：比特币到底是什么？

And of course, the fundamental question is what is Bitcoin?

人们对此争论不休，但答案似乎再明显不过了。

And people debate this ad infinitum, but it just seems quite obvious.

它是数字资本。

It is digital capital.

什么是数字资本？

What is digital capital?

它是以数字形式存储的经济财富。

Well, it's economic wealth stored digitally.

什么是以数字形式存储的经济财富？

What is economic wealth stored digitally?

它指的是通过数字渠道，将有价值的东西从地球上的一个地方转移到另一个地方的能力，对吧？

It's the ability to move something of value somewhere else on earth over a digital rail, right?

人们经常问，使用场景是什么？

People oftentimes ask, well, what's the use case?

价值在哪里？

What's the value?

价值就在于，我能从这里向东京发送十亿美元，这就是价值。

Well, value is if I can send $1,000,000,000 from here to Tokyo, that's valuable.

试着把价值十亿美元的土地从东京搬走。

Try taking $1,000,000,000 of land out of Tokyo.

试着把价值十亿美元的黄金从东京搬走。

Try to take $1,000,000,000 of gold out of Tokyo.

试着把价值十亿美元的公司，或者价值十亿美元的矿产、石油和天然气权益从东京移走。

Try to remove $1,000,000,000 worth of companies from Tokyo or $1,000,000,000 of mineral or oil and gas rights from Tokyo.

你根本做不到。

You just can't do it.

另一方面，你可以把十亿美元的比特币转入或转出东京。

On the other hand, you can move a billion dollars of Bitcoin into and out of Tokyo.

如果你能做到，计算机也能做到，人工智能也能做到。

And if you can do it, a computer can do it, an AI can do it.

因此，在数字世界中，如果我们所有数字化的东西都更优越——无论是数字照片、数字音乐、数字视频、数字通信还是数字智能——那么当我们最终拥有数字财富、数字资本时，它将成为某种非凡而美好的事物的基础。

And so seems very straightforward in the world of digital that if everything we've got that's digital is better, whether it's digital photos or digital music or digital video or digital communications or digital intelligence, then when we finally have digital wealth, digital capital, it will be the basis of something that is extraordinary and beautiful.

而中本聪给了我们这一切。

And Satoshi gave us this.

事实上，这并没有什么特别复杂的地方。

The truth is, there's nothing deeply complicated about it.

这只是把一些当时已经广泛存在且广为人知的技术组合在一起，是一次工程上的突破。

It's just putting together, it's an engineering breakthrough, putting together a bunch of techniques that were readily available and well known in the day.

真正了不起的突破在于这些技术被运用的方式。

It was the way that it was used that was an extraordinary breakthrough.

数字信用也是类似的。

Digital credit is very similar.

这其实也没有什么特别复杂的地方。

There's nothing deeply complicated about this.

我们所做的，是把一些常见的东西组合起来：一家上市公司、一种公开证券、一种数字资本资产——在这个案例中是优先证券，一种可变的月度股息，一种自1910年以来就存在的资本回报税务处理方式，再加上一个主动管理的ATM系统。这些组成部分中的每一个都不算特别难懂。

What we're doing is we're taking a common thing, a publicly listed company, a public security, a capital asset, digital capital asset in this case, a preferred security, the idea of a monthly dividend that's variable, and a tax treatment, return of capital that's been around since 1910, and then an ATM actively managed, and you put together all of these components, no one of them is all that difficult.

如果你是个六年级学生，基本就能理解它们。

You pretty much could understand them if you're a sixth grader.

当你把所有这些元素组合在一起，就会创造出一个远超各部分之和的整体。

You put all of them together and you create something which is much more than the sum of its parts.

你已经在整个信贷领域创造了一项非凡的突破。

You've created an extraordinary breakthrough in the entire world of credit.

我们称之为STRETCH，S T R E T C H。

We call it STRETCH, S T R C.

我们的公司正在做什么？

What is our company doing?

战略起什么作用？

What does strategy do?

我们的公司正在将资本转化为信贷。

Our company is converting capital into credit.

我们正在将经济财富转化为现金流。

We're converting economic wealth into a stream of cash flows.

这才是重大的突破。

That is the big breakthrough.

你需要一家运营公司，才能将一大块经济能量转化为货币，将其与货币挂钩，消除风险，平抑波动，以收益形式提取现金流，并将期限压缩至当下。

You need an operating company in order to take a block of economic energy and turn it into a currency, peg it to a currency, strip away the risk, damp the volatility, extract the cash flows in the form of yield, and compress the duration to now.

我不想等三十年才变得富有。

I don't want to wait thirty years to get rich.

我只希望你能每个月或每天持续不断地给我钱，而且没有任何风险。

I just want you to give me money every month or every day forever consistently without risk.

前者，对吧，是一种资本投资。

The former, right, is a capital investment.

我买下曼哈顿的一大块土地，等上三十年，也许就能致富。

I buy a big chunk of Manhattan and I wait thirty years and maybe I get rich.

后者是债券，还是货币市场账户？

The latter is a bond, or is it a money market account?

所以这一切都是关于将资本转化为信用。

So this is all about conversion of capital into credit.

你可能会好奇，我们是怎么发现STRETCH的？

And you might wonder, well, how did we discover stretch?

有时候人们会问我们这个问题，而这是最被误解的概念。

Sometimes people ask us this, and this is the most poorly understood concept.

大多数人并不会深入思考资本的第一层本质。

Most people don't really think deeply about capital at the first order.

但STRC是漫长旅程的终点。

But STRC is at the end of a long journey.

我经常说，我们在策略上拿到了杠杆的博士学位。

I oftentimes say, we got a PhD in leverage at strategy.

那我们先从一个基本问题开始吧。

Well, let's just start with a basic question.

我该如何筹集投资所需的资本？

How do I raise the capital to invest?

如果我想投资房地产四十年，资本从哪里来？

If I want to invest in real estate for forty years, where's the capital come from?

如果我想购买黄金并持有四十年，资本从哪里来？

If I want to buy gold and hold it for forty years, where do I get the capital?

如果我想购买比特币并持有四十年，资本从哪里来？

If I want to buy Bitcoin and hold it for forty years, where do I get the capital?

我会告诉你最容易获得资本的地方，但这也是最糟糕的地方。

Well, I'm going to tell you the easiest place to get the capital, and it's the worst place.

那就是交易所。

It's an exchange.

你去交易所，使用交易所的杠杆。

You go onto an exchange and you use exchange leverage.

所以我拿出100美元，进行50倍杠杆的比特币买入。

So I post $100 and I do a 50x levered Bitcoin buy.

当你在交易所使用10倍杠杆时，他们会以你的100美元为抵押借给你1000美元资本；当你使用50倍杠杆时，他们会借给你5000美元资本。

And when you lever up 10 to one on an exchange, they loan you $1,000 of capital against your $100 And when you lever up 50 to one, they loan you $5,000 of capital.

对吧？

Right?

当然，这就是去中心化金融，也就是加密货币。

And of course, that's DeFi, that's crypto.

人们认为这种交易所杠杆是绝佳的一次性资本。

People think this is a wonderful exchange leverage is one hour capital.

如果你考虑信贷条款、风险因素、信贷协议中的契约，以及你在建立信贷关系时所拥有的选择权，并问自己一个问题：从概率上讲，我能够使用这笔资本多久？

If you think about the credit terms, the risk factors, the covenants on the credit, and the optionality that you have for the credit when you enter into the relationship, and you ask the question, how long do I have the use of this capital on a probabilistic basis?

那么工程师会说，这就是资本的随机持续时间。

Well, the engineer would say, that's the stochastic duration of the capital.

这个随机的、可能的时间段，我能够使用这笔资金多久？

What is the stochastic, the likely timeframe I have the use of the money for?

在交易所里，你可能只有一个小时能使用这笔钱。

Well, on an exchange, you might have that money for an hour.

如果你以50倍杠杆买入，而比特币价格下跌2%，你就会收到追加保证金通知，他们将强制平仓，你在一小时内就失去全部资本。

If you lever up 50 to one and Bitcoin trades down 2%, you're gonna get margin call, they force liquidate you and you get all your capital ripped away in an hour.

因此，在一端是极短期的资本。

So on one extreme is very short duration capital.

下一个大想法是什么？

What's the next big idea?

我会做一笔保证金贷款。

Well, I do a margin loan.

我通过Reg T借款，或者进行资产支持融资。

I borrow the money under Reg T, or I do asset backed financing.

我以我的比特币、股票或资产作为抵押借款。

I borrow against my Bitcoin or borrow against a stock or an asset.

你能使用这笔资本多长时间？

How long do you have the capital for?

当你收到追加保证金通知时，最多只有一天时间，可能只有四个小时。

Well, when you get the margin call, you've got no more than a day, you might have four hours.

但这就是大约一天期的资本。

But that's about one day capital.

这就像回购融资。

That's like repo financing.

当你阅读长期资本管理公司或雷曼兄弟破产的历史时，他们破产的原因是，他们用一天期的资金为价值一千亿或数千亿美元的长期投资融资。

When you read the history of long term capital's bankruptcy or Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the reason they're bankrupted is they were financing a 100,000,000,000 or hundreds of billions of dollars of long term investments with one day money.

对吧？

Right?

好的。

Okay.

你把钱投十年，却只有一整天的资本使用权，还觉得能出什么问题？

You invest the money for ten years and you have the use of the capital for one day and think, what could go wrong?

好吧，这就是期限错配。

Okay, that's a duration mismatch.

我们确实遇到过一些这种情况。

Well, we had some of that.

我们曾从Silvergate贷款，当比特币崩盘时，你必须追加抵押品。

We had a Silvergate loan where we actually borrowed from Silvergate, and when Bitcoin crashed, you have to post more collateral.

这会让你的股东感到极度焦虑。

That creates extreme anxiety for your equity investors.

这是自我强化的。

It's reflexive.

它会拖垮你的公司。

It'll unwind your company.

这就是为什么做资产支持融资不是一个好主意。

That's why it's not a great idea to do asset backed financing.

下一个想法是高级债务。

The next idea is senior debt.

你去向银行借款，或者通过带有契约的债券融资。

You go and you borrow money from a bank, or you borrow money via a bond that has covenants.

实际上，我已经从概率上将其标记为一年期资金。

Well, I've actually marked it, stochastically, as about one year money.

你会想，如果这是一笔五年期贷款，为什么你会把它看作一年期资金？

And you're like, well, if it's a five year loan, why do you think of it as one year money?

贷款期限是五年，但契约每季度审查一次。

Well, the term is five years, the covenants are checked every quarter.

你可能会在季度末违反EBITDA契约或违反某种抵押条款，此时贷款可能立即到期、加速偿还，或契约阻止你再进入资本市场。

You might get to the end of the quarter where you break the EBITDA covenant or break a lien of some sort, at which point either the loan comes due, it accelerates, or the covenant prevents you from accessing the capital markets anymore.

因此，你因为违反契约而失去了筹集额外资本的能力。

So you have lost the ability to raise additional capital because you tripped over a covenant.

这意味着，为了公司增长，你必须还清贷款。

That means in order to grow the company, you have to pay off the loan.

你以为自己有五年或七年期的贷款，但只要你的EBITDA下降2%，你就必须还清贷款才能再融到资金。

So you thought you had a five, you have a seven year loan, but you have to pay it off in order to raise any more money if your EBITDA ever falls by 2%.

所以这是一种银行家的把戏，我假装给你七年期贷款，但实际上它更像是七周的贷款，因为我清楚你必须不断进行再融资。

So it's kind of a banker trick where I pretend I'm giving you a seven year loan, but it's really a seven week loan, cause I know you're going to have to continuously refinance it.

因此，从概率上讲，高级债务的实际期限远比你想象的要短。

So senior debt is actually, stochastically, much shorter duration than you would think.

次级债务就像没有契约的垃圾债券。

Junior debt is like a junk bond with no covenants.

你只是背负着高额的利息支出，虽然期限稍长一些，但成本依然非常高。

You've just got a big interest bill, and so you've got it a bit longer, but it's still very expensive.

可转换债务的期限稍长一些，因为票息很低，可能甚至是零息或1%票息的可转换债务。

Convertible debt is a bit longer because you've got a very low coupon, maybe you've got a zero coupon, a 1% coupon convertible debt.

你可以持有五年或六年，但最终你还是得偿还。

You can carry it for five or six years, but eventually you have to pay it back.

因此，可转换债务在概率基础上具有稍长一些的期限。

So convertible debt is a little bit longer duration on a probabilistic basis.

但正如你所见，当我们逐步分析这些债务资本时，会发现更好的选择。

But as you can see, as we march through these debt capital, we find something better.

如果你发生信用违约，无法支付利息、无法再融资或违反契约，就会失去资本。

If you ever credit default, if you default on your interest bill, if you can't refinance or if you bust a covenant, you lose the capital.

在极端情况下，股权归零，公司破产。

In the extreme case, the equity goes to zero, the company's bankrupt.

对吧？

Right?

这种资本非常危险，甚至可以说是毒药。

That's very dangerous, if not toxic, capital.

当你谈到股权时，比如看优先股STRF，虽然你能暂时拥有资金，但如果未支付股息，就会有契约限制和惩罚，所以期限稍长一些。

When you get to equity, right, if you look at a senior preferred like STRF, well, you have the money for a while, but you've got covenants and you've got penalties if you don't pay the dividend, so it's a little bit longer.

但它比债务好，却不如次级优先股。

But it's better than debt, but it's not as good as junior prefs.

次级优先股没有契约条款，因此你拥有更多选择权，契约更少，资本期限更长。

The junior pref doesn't have the covenant, so you've optionality, fewer covenants, longer capital.

可转换优先股成本更低，契约更少，资本期限更长。

The convertible prefs have a lower cost, fewer covenants, longer capital.

当你接触到可变优先股时，选择权正在急剧增加。

And then when you get to a variable preferred, what's going on is the optionality is exploding.

你获得了更多的选择权。

You're getting more optionality.

你无法改变债券的票息，但你可以调整每月的股息。

You don't have the option to vary the coupon of a bond, but you do have the option to vary a monthly dividend.

因此，随着选择权的增加，期限也随之延长。

So as the optionality explodes, the duration lengthens.

所以，当然，最后一种资本形式就是股权。

And so what, and of course, the last form of capital is equity.

我出售了1000万美元的股权，这笔钱我永久拥有。

I sell $10,000,000 of equity, I have the money forever.

从净现值的角度来看，这意味着在未来大约一百年里，我都能获得经济收益，直到收益变得微不足道。

Well, from a net present value point of view, that means I've got economic benefit for about the next one hundred years before the benefit becomes third order.

所以如果你看这张表，就会发现，如果你打算长期投资，你确实会希望使用股权。

So if you look at the table, you can see if you want to invest for a long period of time, you'd really like to use equity.

但如果你无法获得股权，那接下来最好的选择是什么？

But if you can't get the equity, what's the next best thing?

那就是可变优先信贷。

Well, it's variable preferred credit.

我们发现数字信贷和延长期限，是因为我们不断向风险曲线的更远处延伸，并找到了除股权之外期限最长的资本形式。

We discovered digital credit and stretch because we kept moving out this curve of risk and we found what we thought was the longest duration capital other than equity.

那么，什么是数字信贷？

Now, what is digital credit?

它是在解决投资者的困境。

It's solving the investor dilemma.

投资者的困境在于：要么获得两位数的回报并享受股权的递延税务优惠，但同时要承受巨大的波动性、大幅回撤，甚至可能损失本金。

The dilemma of the investor is I either get double digit returns and I get deferred tax treatment on equity, and I take large volatility, large drawdowns, and I might lose my capital.

或者我购买信贷产品，虽然有本金保障、波动性低，但却失去了双位数的回报，而且每年收到任何收益时都必须缴纳普通所得税或资本利得税。

Or I buy credit where I have a principal protection, low volatility, but I lose a double digit returns and I have to pay ordinary income tax or I have to pay capital gains tax every time I receive anything in that year.

那么，如果你既想要股权的收益，又想要信贷的优势，同时想消除两者的所有弊端，该怎么办呢？

So what if you wanted the benefits of equity and the benefits of credit and you wanted to get rid of all the liabilities of both?

我们为STRC设计了一种工具，它同时提供了双位数回报、递延资本利得税待遇、低波动性以及本金保障。

What we did with STRC was created this instrument which gives double digit returns, deferred capital gains tax treatment, low volatility, principal protection, all at the same time.

对吧？

Right?

这就是关键突破，对吧？

And that's the big unlock there, right?

你不必做出妥协。

You don't have to make a compromise.

那它针对的是谁呢？

And who's it designed for?

它显然是为散户投资者设计的。

Well, it's definitely designed for retail investors.

它也面向企业设计。

It's also designed for corporations.

但你也可以将其提供给机构投资者、混合型投资者或加密原生投资者。

But you can also offer it to an institutional investor, a hybrid investor, or a crypto native investor.

因此，有许多不同类别的投资者可能对这个产品感兴趣。

So there's lots of different classes of investors that might want this.

在构建最长周期信贷的过程中，我们无意中发现，该信贷的所有股息都是资本返还股息。

In the process of building the longest duration credit, we inadvertently discovered that all of the dividends for that credit are return of capital dividends.

税收处理信贷有三种方式。

There are three types of ways to tax credit.

你要么将其作为普通收入征税，必须 upfront 缴纳所得税；要么作为资本利得征税；要么作为递延的资本返还征税，此时无需缴税。

You either tax it as ordinary income and you got to pay income tax upfront or it's taxed as capital gains, or it's taxed as a deferred return of capital, you don't have a tax on it.

为了创造资本返还，你需要一家没有正向收益和利润的财政部公司，这样才不会产生需要转嫁给信贷投资者的税务责任。

Well, in order to create return of capital, you have to have a treasury company that doesn't have positive earnings and profit that would create a tax liability that you'd have to pass on to your credit investors.

因此，我们发现可以创建一种信贷，其税务优惠直接归信贷投资者所有，而不是由发行方享有。

So what we discovered was we could create credit where the tax benefits go directly to the credit investors instead of accruing to the issuer.

而且作为发行方，我们实际上并不产生应税现金流，因此我们不需要税收优惠。

And because as an issuer we don't actually generate taxable cash flows, we don't need the tax benefit.

大多数公司发行的信贷始终有利于发行方而损害投资者，而我们偶然发现了一个新想法。

Most credit created by companies was always to the benefit of the issuer to the detriment of the investor, and we stumbled upon a new idea.

如果我们创造一种对投资者有利的信贷呢？

What if we created credit which was the benefit of the investor?

最好的信贷。

The best credit.

信贷本身成为产品，而不是实现产品的手段，对吧？

The credit becomes the product, not the means to the product, right?

那么，你创造了这种信贷，现在问题是如何评估数字信贷？

Well, so you create this, and now the issue is how do I assess the digital credit?

评估信用风险的数学框架是什么？

What's the mathematical framework for assessing credit risk?

实际上，我们创造了三个指标。

And really, we created three metrics.

BTC评级代表抵押品覆盖的金额。

BTC rating is the amount of collateral coverage.

比如，如果你的BTC评级是五级，那就意味着你每有一美元未偿还信贷，就有五美元的权益作为保障。

Like if you're a BTC rated five, it means you've got five dollars of equity for every dollar of credit outstanding.

BTC风险是指在信贷期限结束时，你出现抵押不足的可能性。

BTC risk is the probability that you get under collateralized at the end of the term.

如果你今天有5美元，到信贷期限结束时，你是否只剩下1美元的抵押品来偿还债务？

If you have $5 today, will you have only $1 of collateral at the end of the term of the credit, you know, to pay it back if you had to pay it back?

如果你计算出BTC风险，就可以反推出信用利差。

And then if you calculate that BTC risk, you can back into a credit spread.

为了补偿投资者承担的信用风险，你需要在无风险利率之上支付多少合理的信用利差？

What is the fair credit spread above the risk free rate that you have to pay the investor to offset the risk?

没错，这里有一些简单的公式，适合喜欢公式的用户，但更重要的观点是，目前投资级债券的信用利差是78个基点。

Right, so there are simple formulas here for people that like formulas, but maybe the bigger point is the credit spread of investment grade bonds today is 78 basis points.

这意味着，为了承担像苹果或微软这样的公司的信用风险，你获得的回报比无风险利率高出四分之三个百分点。

That means you're getting paid three quarters of 1% more than the risk free rate in order to take the credit risk of a company like Apple or Microsoft.

垃圾债券或高收益债券的信用利差是288个基点。

The credit spread of junk bonds, or high yield, I guess, is two eighty eight basis points.

所以这两个基准值值得关注。

So those are the two benchmarks worth looking at.

现在我们转向资产支持信贷的理论。

And now we move to the theory of asset backed credit.

它是什么？

What is it?

这个想法是，我购买一项能带来30%回报的资本资产，然后从中剥离出前11%的收益支付给信贷投资者。

Well, idea is I buy a capital asset that's going to return 30% and I strip off the first 11% and I pay it to the credit investors.

也许我购买标普指数，预期回报为12%，我剥离出前6%支付给信贷投资者。

Maybe I buy the S and P index, I expect to pay 12%, I strip off the first six and I pay it to the credit investors.

如果黄金每年升值10%，我可以创建一种每年支付5%的优先工具，并将这部分收益支付给信贷投资者。

If gold is gonna appreciate 10% a year, I could create a preferred instrument that pays 5% a year and pay that to the credit investors.

逻辑上讲，你不可能在一百年内持续支付超过资本资产回报率的股息，否则最终会耗尽抵押品，但你完全可以支付低于资本资产预期回报率的股息。

And you know, logic says you're not gonna pay a dividend greater than the return on the capital asset over one hundred years, you're gonna eventually run out of collateral, but you can certainly pay a dividend rate lower than the ARR of the capital asset.

这就引出了一个问题：这里到底发生了什么？

And that takes us to the question of what's really going on here?

这是信号处理。

It's signal processing.

明白吗？

Okay?

数字资本波动性很强，增长速度很快。

Digital capital is highly volatile, growing at a rate.

如果你看过这张图表，那条橙色线看起来很像过去十年比特币的价格走势。

If you look at that chart, that orange line kind of looks like the Bitcoin price chart, if you've looked at it over the past ten years.

它正在这样波动。

It's doing this.

信贷额度才是大多数人想要的。

The credit line is what most people want.

人们并不希望在遥远的未来，经历过山车般的波动后，意外地暴富。

People don't want to get rich suddenly in the distant future, unexpectedly, after a roller coaster ride.

他们想要的是以极低的波动性稳定地承担风险，没有任何焦虑。

What they want is to get risk steadily with very, very low volatility, no anxiety.

他们不要战斗机，而要大型客机，希望在前往目的地时能舒适地躺在头等舱里。

They don't want the fighter jet, they want the jumbo jet airliner, and they want to recline in first class while they go to their destination.

所以，数字信贷就是从这波动极大的30%中剥离出那平稳的11%。

So digital credit is just stripping out that smooth 11% out of that very volatile 30%.

那么，多余的波动性去哪了呢？

Now, where does the excess volatility go?

能量守恒，波动性也守恒。

There's conservation of energy, conservation of volatility.

所以，如果你想要把30%的过山车式体验简化为11%的大型客机豪华体验，就必须把波动性放到别处。

So if you want to take a 30% roller coaster ride and strip it down to 11% jumbo jet luxury ride, then you have to put the volatility somewhere else.

因此，你可以看到，多余的波动性流向了普通股权。

So what you can see is the excess volatility goes to common equity.

我刚刚向你们展示的，本质上就是数字股权、数字资本、数字信贷，它们显然构成了一个数字层级结构。

And what I've just shown you is basically digital equity, digital capital, digital credit is clearly digital stack.

它每十五秒就发生变化。

It's changing every fifteen seconds.

在我们的情况下，股权是MSTR。

In our case, the equity is MSTR.

它的年复合增长率达到了52%。

It's up 52% ARR.

资本是比特币。

The capital is Bitcoin.

我们预计增长30%。

We expect to be up 30%.

信贷是STRC。

The credit is the STRC.

那么，数字信贷能提供的最高收益率是多少？

Now what's the highest yield you can pay on digital credit?

如果你预期回报为30%，那就得考虑抵押覆盖率、比特币评级、期限和波动性等因素。

Well, if you expected 30%, then you have to plug in the collateral coverage, what's the BTC rating, what's the duration, what's the volatility.

一旦你输入你的假设，结果就会显示：在这种情况下，我可以支付15%的利息，同时仍保持投资级评级。

Once you plug in your assumptions, what pops out is, well, in this case, I can pay 15% and still stay investment grade on that assumption set.

如果你提高到23%，你仍然处于高收益区间。

You go up to 23% and you're still in high yield.

但你所能支付的股息总额或股息比率是有上限的。

But there is an envelope of dividends you can pay out or a dividend ratio you can pay out.

这仅仅是底层资本资产的波动性和表现的函数。

That's just a function of the volatility and the performance of the underlying capital asset.

那么这张图表展示了什么？

So what's this chart show?

这张图表显示，如果你是个怀疑者，认为比特币涨幅为零，那么你能创造的信贷额度非常有限，其中大部分是低股息收益的，只有一小部分在5%到10%之间，极少部分超过10%。

This chart shows if you're a skeptic and you think Bitcoin's going up zero, there's a very small amount of credit you can create, and most of it is low dividend yielding, and, you know, a little bit of it is five to 10%, a very small amount is more than 10%.

如果你认为比特币每年上涨10%，就像标普500一样，你会发现你可以发行更多的信贷，并在股息分配上拥有更多灵活性。

If you think Bitcoin's going up 10% a year like the S and P, you see you can issue a lot more credit and you can have a bit more flexibility on the dividends.

随着你对资本资产（无论是黄金、比特币、房地产、标普500或其他）的看法改善，当你认为它未来会增值时，你发行信贷以及高收益信贷的能力也会增强。

As your view of the capital asset, whether it's gold or Bitcoin or real estate or the S and P or whatever, as your view of that improves, as you think it's going to improve over time, your ability to issue credit and higher yielding credit is enhanced.

你可以看到这里正在发生什么。

And you can see what's going on here.

如果你是看涨者，认为比特币每年上涨30%，你会发现你可以发行大量投资级的高收益信贷。

If you're a bull and you think Bitcoin's going up 30% a year, you can see you can issue quite a lot of high yielding credit that is investment grade.

如果你仔细看这张图，这就是核心观点。

That's the big idea here, if you're staring at this.

当然，如果你考虑高收益，意味着你愿意接受风险稍高的工具，那么你可以创造更多的信贷。

Of course, if you think about high yield, right, you're willing to accept a slightly higher risk instrument, then you can create a lot more credit.

如果你认为比特币的升值速度将超过标普500，你可以创造异常庞大的信贷规模。

You can create exceptional amounts of credit if you think Bitcoin's going to appreciate faster than the S and P.

当然，如果你是比特币看涨者，即使在这个水平上仅以1倍抵押，你也能发行海量的信贷，对吧？

And of course, if you're a Bitcoin bull, you can issue monstrous amounts of credit, even 1x collateralized at this level, right?

因此，你能创造的信贷规模实际上取决于这些变量。

And so the amount of credit you can create is really a function of those variables.

那么，STRC的风险有多大呢？

Now, so how risky is STRC?

什么是Stretch？

What is stretch?

嗯，我已经标在图表上了。

Well, I put it on the chart.

如果你对比特币持怀疑态度，认为它不会上涨，那它看起来就像违约债务。

If you're a Bitcoin skeptic and you think Bitcoin's going up zero, it looks like distressed debt.

如果你认为比特币每年增长10%，那它几乎就是高收益债券了。

If you think Bitcoin's a 10% grower, it's almost high yield.

这就像次优的高收益债券。

It's like suboptimal high yield.

但当你对比特币的看法越来越好时，它就开始向高收益债券靠拢。

But then as you start to have a better view of Bitcoin, it starts to float into the high yield.

而如果你是比特币多头，那它就是投资级债券了。

And then of course, if you're a Bitcoin bull, it's investment grade.

因此，我在这里所阐述的，可以称之为数字信贷理论，但其实它只是资产支持信贷的理论。

And so what I've laid out here, call it the theory of digital credit, but really it's just the theory of asset backed credit.

你可以用标普指数、七巨头股票、比如英伟达股票、黄金、房地产来做同样的分析。

You could do the same exercise with the S and P index, Mag-seven stocks, you know, Nvidia stock, gold, real estate.

那为什么人们没有这么做呢？

Now why haven't people?

这是因为1940年《投资公司法》禁止你对上市公司、投资组合或证券进行杠杆或资本化操作。

Well, because the Investment Company Act of 1940 prevents you from levering or capitalizing a publicly traded company on equity, portfolio, or securities.

所以在证券的公开市场上，没人会这么做。

So no one does this in the public market on securities.

你只能转向黄金或房地产，但黄金和房地产的表现一直不够吸引人，不值得费这个劲。

You'd have to go to gold or real estate, and the performance in gold and real estate has just been not compelling enough to be worth the trouble.

比特币是第一个非证券类资产，其表现超越了标普指数，并且值得你去投入。

Bitcoin is the first time when you have a non security asset, which is outperforming the S and P, where it's worth the trouble.

这就引出了一个问题：这些东西的实际表现到底如何？

And that takes us to the question of, well, what's the performance of this stuff anyway?

好吧，自从四个半月前的历史新高以来，比特币下跌了45%，这就是资本投资的回报。

Well, since the all time high four and a half months ago, Bitcoin's fallen 45%, that's the capital investment.

如果你是资本投资者，你没有股息，还损失了45%的财富。

If you're a capital investor, you got no dividends and you lost 45% of your wealth.

再等十年，你就没事了。

Just wait for ten years, you'll be fine.

我对此无所谓，但你三岁的孩子可受不了。

I'm okay with it, but your three year old's not okay with it.

另一方面，看看STRC吧？

On the other hand, look at STRC, right?

STRC是为其他所有人设计的。

STRC is for everybody else.

它的价值实际上没有缩水。

It's actually lost 0% of its value.

在经历严重的资本市场下跌期间，它仍支付了4.5%的股息。

It's paid 4.5% in dividends through a very bad, big capital market drawdown.

今年年初以来，情况也是一样。

Since the beginning of the year, same story.

STRC保持价值并支付股息。

STRC holds its value and pays a dividend.

比特币下跌了25%。

Bitcoin's down 25%.

人们想要这些东西吗？

Do people want this stuff?

它的交易流动性是普通优先股的130倍，是场外优先股的1000倍。

Well, it's trading 130X more liquid than the average preferred stock, and 1,000 times more liquid than the over the counter prefers.

这实际上是整个世纪以来最成功、流动性最强的优先股。

This is in fact the most successful, most liquid preferred stock probably in the entire century.

好的，这个产品才六个月大，对吧？

Okay, and this is six months old, right?

我真希望告诉你们我们早有预判，但刚才我展示的是，我们一直在躲避风险、信用风险，直到找到优先股，然后我们追逐理想的产品，最终找到了STRC。

And I would love to tell you we knew what we were doing, but what I just showed you was we were running from risk, from credit risk, until we got to prefs, and then we were chasing after the ideal product until we got to stretch.

所以在经历了十种不同尝试之后，我们最终找到了第十一种方案，而市场随后告诉我们，他们喜欢这个。

And so at the end of our journey, after trying 10 different things, we found the eleventh thing, and then the market told us they liked this.

我们并不知道他们会喜欢这个。

We didn't know that they'd liked this.

Stretch就像调味料，健康状况持续改善。

Stretch is seasoning, the health keeps improving.

在这里你可以看到，随着时间推移，它在目标区间内停留的时间越来越长，波动性逐渐消失，本金价值保持得更高。

Here what you can see is that each month that goes by, it spends more and more time in its target range, the volatility strips off, it holds its principal value much higher.

那么，我们在这里与什么竞争呢？

And so what are we competing against here?

你面对的是一个数万亿美元的信贷工具宇宙。

You're competing against a multi trillion dollar universe of credit instruments.

其中大多数收益率为4%。

Most of them yield 4%.

它们大多具有较长的久期。

Most of them have long duration.

信贷世界五十年来几乎没有变化。

The world of credit hasn't changed much in fifty years.

你被困在了二十世纪。

You're trapped in the twentieth century.

大多数信贷工具由发行方创建，其目标是以最低的支付金额和最差的税务待遇来应付你。

Most credit instruments are created by issuers whose objective is to pay you the least amount they can with the worst tax treatment.

对吧？

Right?

当传统信贷发行方发行信贷时，他们把税务优惠留给了自己，尽量减少支付给你的金额，而讽刺的是，当这些产品在场外交易时，你购买它们是违法的。

When a conventional credit issuer issues credit, they're keeping the tax benefit to themself, they're minimizing what they pay you, and the irony is when it's over the counter, it's illegal for you to buy it.

再说一遍。

Say that again.

大多数信贷产品都是被设计成糟糕的、税务效率极低的，而且你购买它们是违法的。

Most credit, it's manufactured to be awful, very tax inefficient, and it's illegal for you to buy it.

为什么会这样？

Why does that even happen?

这只不过是三十年、四十年前、五十年前世界的样子。

That's just the way the world was thirty, forty, fifty years ago.

我们所做的就是彻底颠覆了它，我们的观点是，我们实际上希望给你最高的可能股息，使其税收递延，并让你轻松购买，对吧？

What we've done is flipped it on its head, and our view is, well, we actually want to pay you the highest possible dividend, make it tax deferred, and make it easy for you to buy it, right?

这就是信用革命。

That is the credit revolution.

那么，为什么你必须等十年才知道是否能收回本金？

So why do you have to wait ten years to find out if you get paid back?

我的意思是，把期限大幅缩短，提高股息，然后让个人更容易购买。

I mean, strip the duration down to a much shorter amount, increase the dividend, and then make it easy for the individual.

那么，这项投资的税后等效收益率是多少？

So what's the tax equivalent yield on this?

如果你是一家公司，那我们先从数字说起。

If you're a company, well, let's just start with the number.

它是11.3%。

It's 11.3%.

如果你是一家公司，这相当于获得了14.3%的收益，因为你无需为这笔收入缴纳企业所得税。

If you're a company, that's the same as getting paid 14.3% because you don't have to pay corporate income tax on this.

如果你是迈阿密的个人纳税人，并且能够延迟缴纳37%的联邦所得税，这相当于税后收益接近18%。

If you're an individual in Miami and you are able to defer the 37% federal income tax rate, it's like a tax equivalent yield of almost 18%.

与其他所有投资相比如何？

How's it compared to everything else?

你可以看到，它的表现比全球其他所有信贷产品好50%到四倍不等，对吧？

Well, you can see it's anywhere from 50% to four times better than all the other credit in the world, right?

而次优的选择是私人信贷，这种产品流动性差，对纳税人来说收益只有一半，对非纳税人来说也仅相当于60%的收益。

And the next best thing is like private credit, which is sort of illiquid and it's half as good for a taxpayer and it's 60% as good for a non taxpayer just on the basis of yield.

如果你幸运地住在纽约市，情况会怎样？

What if you're lucky enough to be an individual living in New York City?

好的，数字信贷就像一家支付你23.3%利息的银行。

Okay, digital credit is like a bank that pays you 23.3%.

如果你住在旧金山，这就相当于一个支付你22.6%利息的银行账户。

If you live in San Francisco, it's like a bank account that pays you 22.6%.

所以，正如你所见，这比其他选项好四到五倍。

Okay, so as you can see, this is, you know, four, five times better.

好的，我们还发现了什么？

Okay, what else did we discover?

当你创建这样的工具时，它是资本返还，意味着你收取股息，推迟对股息的纳税，降低你在该工具中的成本基础，十年后，你的成本基础从100美元降至零。

Well, when you create an instrument like this, it's return of capital, it means that you collect a dividend, you defer the tax on the dividend, you reduce your basis in the instrument, and after ten years, you've reduced your basis from $100 down to zero.

如果你去世并将它传给继承人，他们会获得成本基础的调整，调整至100美元，然后他们可以重新开始同样的折旧。

If then you die and pass this on to your heir, they get a step up in the basis, and it steps up to $100 and they can start the same depreciation again.

因此，你实际上获得了十年股息的免税好处，而你的继承人又能再享受十年股息的免税。

So you actually get the benefit of shielding your ten years of dividends, and then your heir gets to shield another ten years of dividends.

现在，我并不是建议你以十年为周期反复操作这个策略。

Now, I'm not suggesting that you run this on ten year cycles.

但我更想强调的是，将100美元投资于国库券并持有二十年，与将100美元投资于延期工具并转给继承人、由他们再持有二十年，两者之间的区别在于：二十年后，你的继承人拥有922美元的延期工具，每年收入为100美元，而你只有3.75美元——你实际获得的收入是后者的25倍。

But what I am suggesting, more to the point is, the difference between investing $100 in T bill and holding it twenty years versus investing $100 in stretch and giving it to your heir and them holding it twenty years is, at the end of the twenty years, your heir has $922 of stretch and their income each year is $100 versus $3.75 You literally have 25 times as much income after twenty years.

如果你关心代际财富传承，这无疑是一个极其强大的工具，对吧？

If you're interested in generational wealth transfer, this is an incredibly powerful vehicle, right?

它的效果如此强大，以至于一想到你可能会选择其他方式，都会让你感到反胃。

It's like so powerful it kind of makes you sick to think you might pursue the alternative.

如果你是一家公司，你会发现，你可以选择从货币市场获得3.6%的收益，或者在纽约市选择一家支付17%利率的数字银行。

And if you're a company, you can see that, you know, your choices collect 3.6% from a money market or the equivalent of a digital bank that pays you 17% in New York City.

那么，信贷市场中真正处于劣势的玩家是谁呢？

So, you know, who are the real disadvantaged players in the credit market?

是那些缴纳税款的个人和运营公司。

It's the individuals that pay their taxes and operating companies.

因为你的非营利组织、捐赠基金和保险公司根本不用缴税。

Because your nonprofits, your endowments, your insurance companies, they just don't pay tax.

政府也不用缴税。

The government doesn't pay tax.

所以，如果你或你的公司靠劳动赚钱、从事经营活动，你才是这种工具真正的受益者。

So if you actually work for a living or your company works for a living and does stuff, you're the one that benefits from this kind of instrument.

我们已经走遍全球，与多家公司探讨过购买比特币的事宜。

And, and, you know, we've, we've gone around the world talking to companies about buying Bitcoin.

而我的结论是，对比特币而言，对企业来说，它就是‘延展’工具。

Well, what I've concluded is that Bitcoin for corporations is stretch.

比如，如果你去找那些拥有数亿美元资本和营运资金的公司，对他们来说，购买这种收益产品比购买比特币更容易、也更合适。

Like if you go to most companies with hundreds of millions of dollars of capital and working capital, it's probably easier for them and better for them to buy stretch than it is to buy Bitcoin.

他们很难说服董事会，让他们去购买一个波动率为40、没有现金流、必须每个季度按市价计价的资产，因为这可能会影响他们的损益表。

It's very difficult for them to convince the board of directors that they should buy a 40 vol asset with no cash flows, that they have to mark to market every quarter because it might screw with their P and L.

但另一方面，说服董事会接受收取两到四倍更多现金流、且没有波动性的方案，则要容易得多。

But on the other hand, convincing the board of directors that they should actually collect two or four times more cash flow and not have volatility, that's easier.

这就像，你不必拿出一亿美元去购买比特币，然后坐过山车，不如把这一亿美元交给我，我来承担所有风险。

It's like, instead of you taking $100,000,000 and buying Bitcoin and getting on the roller coaster, just give me the $100,000,000 I will accept all the risk.

我来承担这过山车般的波动。

I will accept the roller coaster.

我会提供充足的抵押品。

I'll over collateralize it.

我会把10%或11%的收益率返还给你。

I will give you the 10% or 11% yield back.

我会解决税务问题。

I'll solve the tax problem.

我承诺不会出售比特币。

And I promise not to sell the Bitcoin.

所以我们做的就是不卖比特币。

And so we're in the business of not selling Bitcoin.

我们在这方面非常在行。

We got very good at it.

我们可是拥有比特币持有学博士学位的，你知道吧？

We have a PhD in hodling, you know?

所以我想，为什么我们不直接为成千上万家公司代为持有比特币，而不是试图说服每个人像我们一样去做，还要说服他们的股东和董事会呢？

And so I figure, why don't we just hodle for the thousands of companies, instead of try to convince everybody else to do what we're doing and convince their shareholders and their board of directors?

然后你就看到这张图表，对吧？

So then you see this chart, right?

这张图想说明什么？

And what is this saying?

听好了，如果你的时间周期少于四年，你需要在十二个月内用到这笔钱，或者在二十四个月内用到，或者在六个月之内，甚至需要这笔钱发工资，那这就是营运资本。

Look, if your time horizon was less than four years, you need the money in twelve months, you need the money in twenty four months, you need the money in six months, you need the money to make payroll, that's working capital.

你可以把这笔钱投入像Stretch这样的信用工具中。

You put that into a credit instrument like Stretch.

如果你四年之内不需要这笔钱，如果你是一个长期投资者，拥有十年、二十年的时间跨度，只想变得富有，那么你可以选择购买数字资产，也就是比特币，因为它没有交易对手风险，且最具灵活性；或者你可以购买数字股权，即放大版的比特币，比如MSTR，因为这样你能获得更多的比特币。

If you don't need the money for four years, if you're a capital investor and you've got a ten year, twenty year time horizon and you just want to get wealthy, well, then you either buy digital capital, which is Bitcoin because there's no counterparty risk and that has the most optionality, Or you buy digital equity, amplified Bitcoin, like MSTR, because there you're getting more Bitcoin.

但你必须有长期的投资视野。

But you have to have a long time horizon.

在我看来，四年是最短的时间底线。

Four years is the minimum, in my opinion.

十年是一个健康的时间跨度，或者七到十年才是合适的时间范围。

Ten years is a healthy, or seven to ten years is the right time horizon for that.

当然，你所看到的这一点是无可争议的：世界上没有一个人或一家公司不需要在接下来四年之内使用资本。

And of course, what you see, which is not disputable, is there's not a person in the world or a company on earth that doesn't have capital they need in the next four years.

有大量的资金被用于支付工资或在十二月向销售人员发放年度奖金。

There's a huge amount of capital that's tied up in making payroll or paying the annual bonus to the salespeople at the December.

这就像是，这笔钱就躺在我的资产负债表上。

It's like, I've got it sitting on the balance sheet.