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Stretch在财报电话会议期间交易价格接近面值,这实际上表明市场对其以负责任且令投资者信赖的方式管理这一产品抱有一定的信心。
The fact that Stretch is trading near par at the time of the earnings call, really what that says is there is a degree of confidence in their ability to manage this product in a in a responsible way and in a way investors can trust.
因此,这正是该策略真正需要的压力测试。
And so this is really the stress test that strategy really needed.
他的评论恰恰触及了我经常看到的一种批评。
His comments really get to a criticism I see a lot.
他们什么也不做。
They don't do anything.
他们没有任何运营。
They don't have any operations.
他们没有产品。
They don't have a product.
这从实证上表明,这就是该产品。
What this shows empirically is that this is the product.
到目前为止,它表现得相当不错,而且他们一直支付股息,其价值相对于比特币的价值也保持了高度稳定。
It works so far pretty well and that they've they've been paying the dividends, and the value has been very stable relative to Bitcoin's value.
欢迎来到比特币公司节目。
Welcome to the Bitcoin for Corporation's show.
今天只有斯宾塞和我。
Today is just Spencer and I.
我是主持人皮埃尔·罗夏。
I'm I'm your host Pierre Rochard.
我们将回顾上周MSTR的收益电话会议,突出一些主要主题并给出我们的评论,因为我认为这确实是一次具有历史意义的会议——毕竟,我们之前有过牛市时期的收益电话会议,而现在则是在熊市中的收益电话会议。
We're gonna go and take a retrospective on last week's MSTR earnings call, kind of highlight some of the major themes and and give our commentary on it because I think it really is a historical call in the sense that, you know, we've got earnings calls from the bull market, and now we've got an earnings call in the bear market.
因此,我们可以清楚地看到,当比特币环境不利时,该策略采取了怎样的做法。
And so we can really see what what the approach is for strategy when Bitcoin conditions are negative.
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
我认为很多
I think a lot of
这个领域的人们非常好奇,首先想听听Sailor、Fong和Andrew Kang等人如何谈论他们的策略。
people in the space were really curious to hear, first of all, the tone of of Sailor and and Fong and Andrew Kang, etcetera, on how they were going to talk about strategy.
我认为普通股已经经历了相当大的回撤,这并不令人意外。
I think it's no secret that there has been pretty large drawdown in the common equity.
但我认为这次电话会议的核心主题是,他们仍在持续强调其永久性优先股和数字信贷产品。
But I think that the underlying theme in this call is that they're continuing to bang the drum on their perpetual preferred equity in their their digital credit products.
我认为这非常值得深入探讨。
And I think that, you know, really worth digging into.
而且我认为他们还提供了一些关于该领域未来发展趋势的有趣前瞻指引和预测。
And I think they also provided some pretty interesting forward guidance and projections on where they see this space developing.
但说实话,我觉得他们选在这个时机发布再合适不过了。
But, yeah, I think they couldn't have come at a at a better time.
我认为,此前在比特币寒冬期间,他们的策略也曾经历过回撤。
I think, you know, strategies been in the midst of a drawdown before during Bitcoin winter.
而这一次的寒冬或许稍微温和一些。
And, you know, this is perhaps a little bit more temperate of a winter.
但我认为,从可转换债券转向数字信贷领域后,我们有更多内容需要探讨,而且策略团队确实表现得很出色。
But I think with, you know, moving away from convertible bonds into this digital credit space, I think it's, you know, we have more things to discuss and surely the strategy team delivered.
是的。
Yeah.
而且,你提到他们之前经历过类似情况,这其实是一个非常重要的观点,即他们从上一轮熊市中学到了很多经验。
And, you know, you mentioned that they've been through this before, and I think that's actually a really important point, which is that they learned a lot from the previous bear market that they went through.
因此,这些经验融入了他们的产品设计和风险管理中,使得当熊市再次来临时,他们能够避免崩盘。
And so that went into their product design and their risk management so that when a bear market comes back, that they are positioned to not break.
社交媒体上充斥着大量恐慌情绪,有人说Sailor的持仓低于成本价,这意味着他不得不抛售所有比特币。
There's like a lot of FUD on social media where people saying, oh, Sailor's below his cost basis, and so that means he's going to have to liquidate all the Bitcoin.
他会收到追加保证金的通知。
He's going to get a margin call.
他们从上一轮熊市中学到了避免追加保证金和强制平仓的教训。
They learned to not have margin calls and liquidation clauses from the previous bear market.
因此,我认为人们对策略脆弱性的认知与实际情况之间仍存在信息不对称。
And so I think that there's still an information asymmetry between what people think the fragility of strategy is versus what it actually is in practice.
现在,显然这并不完美,对吧?
Now, obviously it's not perfect, right?
我认为在那次通话中,他们提到如果比特币在未来五年内跌到8000美元,那就会成为一个问题。
I think in that call they mentioned like if Bitcoin goes down to $8,000 for the next five years, that would be a problem.
所以这并不是没有风险的,但我认为人们对风险的本质以及概率分布的心理模型,有时并不如应有的那样准确。
So it's not risk free, but I think people's mental model of what the risk is and what the probability distribution is, is sometimes not as accurate as it should be.
我认为他们很好地澄清了事实,指出他们不仅采用了永续优先股,从而避免了可转换票据的到期风险,而且还建立了现金储备。
I think that they did a great job of setting the record straight of pointing out not only have they embraced perpetual preferreds so that they don't have that maturity risk of the convertible notes, but also that they have developed a cash reserve.
我认为这是过去一个季度最重要的进展。
And that was, I think, the big development over the past quarter.
有些人可能会对此持争议态度,认为:这个实验最初是从比特币的‘融化的冰块’,或者更准确地说,是从法币开始的,那你们为什么还要持有法币储备呢?
Some people might view that kind of controversially of, Hey, this whole experiment started with the melting ice cube of Bitcoin, or sorry, of fiat, and so why are you holding a fiat reserve?
这实际上归结于公司的信用评级以及如何提升它。
And it really comes down to the credit rating of the company and improving that.
我认为未来的主要主题将是:公司B已经建立了信用评级。
And I think that's going be the big theme going forward is that they've got a credit rating in place for the company B.
我认为他们可以获得A评级。
I think that they could get an A.
我不知道这需要多长时间,但他们正在采取正确的步骤来实现这一目标。
I don't know how long it'll take, but they're taking the right steps to be able to accomplish that.
这实际上将加速飞轮效应,使人们的信贷产品需求增加,并推动他们继续扩大规模。
And that will actually accelerate the flywheel of people, their credit products having more demand and enabling them to continue to increase the amplification.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为关于信用评级的部分非常有趣,因为一方面,这确实是一个实际问题。
I think the piece on the credit rating is really interesting because on the one hand, it is a matter of practicality.
他们手头有多少现金?
How much cash do they have on hand?
他们总资产的完整计算方式是什么?
What is their entire the calculation of their their total assets?
他们的负债是多少?
What are their liabilities?
还有,你知道,他们有多少保障。
And, you know, how much coverage do they have.
但另一方面,标普的评估方法对他们的比特币资产给予了非常高的折价。
But then on the other hand, it was S and P's methodology where they provided a a really steep haircut to their Bitcoin as an asset.
所以我认为,是的,一方面要看他们运营业务和负债的实际机制。
And so I think, yeah, again, on the one hand, is what are the mechanics of their their operating business and their liabilities.
另一方面,还要看评级机构本身是如何看待比特币的。
But two, what is what are the mechanics of the agencies themselves and how they approach Bitcoin?
在我们上节目之前,我们讨论过一个问题,就是比特币和相关策略未来的发展空间在哪里。
And before we jumped on the air, that was something we discussed was, you know, where is the space that exists around Bitcoin and strategy going?
我认为这能很好地揭示比特币领域本身未来的发展方向。
And I think that can really inform where the space itself within Bitcoin will be headed.
所以我想为观众播放一小段视频,之后我们可以再讨论一下。
So I do wanna play a brief clip for the audience here, and we can discuss a little bit following.
十二个月前,几乎不可能获得针对IBET的贷款或保证金贷款。
Twelve months ago was almost impossible to get loan or a margin loan against IBET.
现在有很多银行进入这个领域。
Now now there are many banks coming in the space.
他们会允许你交易比特币吗?
Would they let you trade BTC?
现在有一些银行已经宣布支持比特币交易。
Now you have now you have banks that are announcing support for that.
一些银行宣布支持托管比特币,还有一些银行表示有意提供以比特币为抵押的信贷。
You have banks announcing support to custody BTC, and you have banks announcing intent to offer credit against BTC.
这再次是一场巨大的变革。
Again, this is an extraordinary sea change.
我们不能低估其价值。
We cannot underestimate the value.
我认为,行业的基本面是由银行创造信贷所驱动的。
I think that the fundamentals of the industry are driven by the banks creating credit.
一家银行创造的信贷量,可能超过所有比特币矿工一年内挖出的比特币总量。
One bank can create as much credit as all the Bitcoin miners can create in Bitcoin in a year.
因此,每一家开通比特币支持信贷额度的银行,都可能相当于网络再次减半。
So each bank that turns on Bitcoin backed credit lines might be the equivalent of another halving for for the network.
我们来看下一张幻灯片。
Let's go to the next slide.
传统金融和金融科技已经接纳了比特币。
TradFi and fintech have embraced Bitcoin.
如果你查看持有比特币交易资产的账户数量,会发现一个清晰的看涨趋势,这在加密原生交易所、金融科技公司、新型银行、券商、银行以及财富管理渠道中都普遍存在。
If you look at the number of accounts with BTC trading asset, there's a pretty clear bullish trend here, both across crypto native exchanges, fintechs and neo banks, and brokerages and banks and the wealth management channel.
这些数字都非常庞大。
Those are large numbers.
从本质上讲,我们正从一个即使想买也买不到的资产类别,转变为一个所有人都在争相提供接入和敞口的资产类别。
Fundamentally, we're going from an asset class and no one could buy if they wanted to, to an asset class where everyone is competing to facilitate access and exposure.
是的。
Yeah.
所以,我的意思是,我想,在我们之前讨论的基础上,皮埃尔,你们之前讨论的这个投机攻击理论的背景是:这些以比特币作为抵押品发行信贷的公司,最终的结局会是什么?
So, I mean, I think, you know, again, before we jumped in the air, Pierre, this is something we were discussing was, I think, the context of your speculative attack thesis is, you know, what is this endgame for companies issuing credit with Bitcoin as collateral?
特别是像iBit和其他比特币ETF的增长情况如何?
And what is the growth of something in particular like iBit and the other Bitcoin ETFs?
这对比特币价格的增长以及以美元计算比特币时的分母意味着什么?
What does that mean for both the growth in the Bitcoin price, but also the denominator for Bitcoin when you're calculating in dollar terms?
从货币政策和整体M2扩张的角度来看,这种情况会如何发展?我们很可能会看到这种动态,但希望你能深入探讨一下。
Like, how does that play out in terms of the monetary policy and overall just m two expansion that that we very well could see as as a part of this dynamic, but was hoping you could dive into that a little bit.
是的。
Yeah.
从宏观层面来看,你实际上可以把金融体系分为两部分。
So at a high level, you could actually model the financial system in two parts.
一部分是银行信贷,另一部分是非银行信贷。
There's the bank credit and then there's the non bank credit.
过去十年中,非银行信贷实际上增长了很多。
And so non bank credit has actually been growing a lot over the past decade.
在2008年金融危机前后,持怀疑态度的人称之为影子银行,试图让它听起来像某种疯狂的西部荒野。
Before the financial crisis of 'eight and afterwards, the skeptics called it shadow banking and kind of tried to make it sound like it was some crazy Wild West.
但这个行业实际上已经与杠杆收购以及其他各种动态相结合,催生了大量的非银行信贷。
But the industry has really and combined also with the leveraged buyouts and kind of all of that dynamic that created a lot of this non bank credit.
你还可以将期货保证金加入到非银行信贷中,对吧?
And you could add to non bank credit, for example, futures margin, right?
所以这是CME。
So it's CME.
你也可以加入期权,这是一种杠杆形式,对吧?
You could also add options, which are a form of leverage, right?
因此,所有这些工具都让人们能够对比特币进行杠杆操作。
So there's all of these instruments that allow people to lever up against Bitcoin.
而如果你看一下银行信贷这一侧,我们真正谈论的是商业银行体系。
And then if you look at the bank credit side, what we're really talking about is the commercial banking system.
这就是与美联储紧密相连、并受到美联储、联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)和货币监理署(OCC)严格监管的部分准备金银行体系。
And that is what is the fractional reserve banking system that is connected very closely with the Federal Reserve and tightly regulated by the Federal Reserve and by the FDIC and by the OCC.
这个商业银行体系必须受到严格监管,因为一旦缺乏监管,就会发生银行挤兑。
And this commercial banking system, it has to be heavily regulated because if it's not, what happens is bank runs.
如果你看一下美国的经济史,美国历史上曾多次发生银行挤兑,最严重的是大萧条时期,这些挤兑被认为是导致经济严重恶化的关键因素。
And if you look at the economic history of The United States, there have been bank runs throughout US history, and in the worst case, in the Great Depression, were attributed for a very negative economic outcome.
因此,在大萧条之后,整个体系应运而生:一方面救助商业银行系统,另一方面限制其风险承担行为,以最小化救助的财政负担。
And so after the Great Depression, that's when this whole kind of system came together to bail out the commercial banking system on one hand, on the other hand to limit its risk taking in order to minimize the bailout liability.
因此,风险控制措施变得越来越严格,旨在尽可能降低需要救助的风险。
And so it has gotten tighter and tighter in terms of its risk controls to try to minimize the risk of bailouts.
但即便如此,正如我们从硅谷银行事件中看到的,银行系统的崩溃不可避免,最终仍需货币当局介入,印钞来实施救助。
But nevertheless, as we saw with SVB, it's just inevitable that there's going to be blowups that require monetary authorities to step in and create dollars to bail out.
但即使在非危机情况下,每当它们发放贷款时,也会每天创造新的美元。
But also, even outside of kind of a crisis scenario, they create dollars day to day every time they lend out money.
这就是斯蒂芬妮·凯尔顿和现代货币理论支持者所擅长分析的部分——尽管他们在将这一机制整合进更广泛的宏观经济框架时遇到了很大困难。
So this is what Stephanie Kelton and kind of the modern monetary theory people, I think that they're actually very astute at analyzing this part of the system even though they have a lot of trouble integrating it into a wider macroeconomic coherent framework.
但当银行体系发放抵押贷款时,并不是从一个人那里借来美元再贷给另一个人。
But when the banking system creates, for example, a mortgage, they're not borrowing dollars from one person in order to lend dollars to another person.
它们只是凭空创造这些美元,然后根据监管框架管理自身的资本要求。
They're just printing those dollars out of thin air, and then they're managing their capital requirements according to the regulatory framework.
因此,当我们思考投机性攻击时,考虑到我们既有非银行信贷也有银行信贷,实际上可以分为两种类型的投机性攻击。
And so when we think about speculative attacks, there's really two kinds of speculative attacks that we could look at given that we've got non bank and bank credit.
非银行信贷可以成为投机性攻击的燃料,但最终并不会形成反馈循环,因为你并没有创造新的美元。
So non bank credit can be fuel for a speculative attack, but ultimately there's not a reflexive feedback loop because you're not creating new dollars.
理想的投机性攻击涉及从商业银行系统借入弱势货币,用以购买强势货币(在这种情况下是比特币),等待强势货币汇率对你有利时再卖出强势货币,偿还银行贷款。
The ideal speculative attack involves creating more of the weak currency by borrowing it from the commercial banking system in order to buy the strong currency, which in this case would be Bitcoin, wait until the exchange rate goes in your favor on the strong currency and then sell the strong currency, pay down loan to the bank.
而这一路径在今天并不存在,因为商业银行系统目前尚不具备以比特币为抵押品放贷的能力。
And so is a vector that doesn't really exist today because the commercial banking system is not in a position to lend against Bitcoin today.
由于特朗普在上一届总统选举中获胜,以及他希望将美国打造成比特币超级大国的意愿,他已经任命了一批金融监管者,我相信他们将真正为比特币借款人打开商业银行信贷体系的大门。
Now, because of the victory of Trump in the previous presidential election and his interest in making The United States the Bitcoin superpower, he has put in place financial regulators who I believe are going to actually unlock access to the commercial bank credit system for Bitcoin borrowers.
这一过程将逐步推进。
And that's going to happen gradually.
不可能一夜之间你就去摩根大通,存入一枚比特币,就能借出50%的贷款价值比。
It's not going to be like overnight you go to JPMorgan Chase, deposit one Bitcoin, borrow 50% LTV.
但我认为我们终将实现这一点。
But I think we'll get there.
随着我们逐步迈向那个世界,比特币的价值,以美元计价的价格,将因美元供应量的无限扩张而急剧上涨。
That as we incrementally move towards that world, the value of Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin in dollar terms is going to skyrocket because of the imbalance between the abundance of US dollars that can be created.
而目前,我认为比特币总量只有1900万枚。
And there's only today, I think 19,000,000 Bitcoin.
几乎所有的比特币都已经被挖出来了。
Almost all of the Bitcoin have already been mined.
你无法增加这个固定的发行节奏。
You can't increase that fixed rate schedule.
因此,这种供需失衡显然对比特币极为利好,这也是为什么我认为西勒尔将目光投向了比特币抵押银行信贷这一尚未充分发展的领域。
So that supply and demand imbalance, I think, obviously hugely bullish for Bitcoin, and that's why I think that Saylor kind of pointed his finger to this area that is underdeveloped of Bitcoin backed bank credit.
是的。
Yeah.
那你认为这种比特币抵押物会以什么形式出现呢?
And do you have
关于这种比特币抵押物的形式,你有什么看法?
any thoughts on what form that, like, that Bitcoin collateral will take?
我认为在比特币圈子里,这一直是一个讨论的话题。
I think that that's been a topic of conversation in the Bitcoin space is.
这会是多重签名的托管比特币,还是由这些托管方持有的MPC比特币呢?
Is this going to be, you know, multisig custodial Bitcoin multi or, like, MPC Bitcoin held by these custodians?
还是说,个人可以将比特币存入商业银行?
Or is this going to be, like, where so an individual could deposit Bitcoin with a commercial bank?
还是说,这会像你在经纪账户中持有iBit一样,采取一种更偏向托管的形式?
Or is this going to be something like you have a brokerage account with iBit in it, and it kinda takes this more custodial form?
你对比特币是会直接使用,还是会以托管方式用于此类操作,有什么看法吗?
Do you have any thoughts on on if Bitcoin will be used itself or if it's going to be used in more of a custodial fashion for this type of operation?
是的。
Yeah.
我的水晶球对未来能看多远也是有限的。
So my my crystal ball can only go so far in the future.
但我可以谈谈这件事在近期发展中的情况,这实际上非常有趣。
What I can say about the immediate future of where this is beginning, it's actually really interesting.
昨天发布了一则新闻,比特币贷款机构Ledin已为其正在证券化的贷款组合获得了标普的初步信用评级。
A press release came out yesterday that Ledin, a lender against Bitcoin, has actually secured a preliminary credit rating from S and P for their loan book that they are securitizing.
这意味着,商业银行现在可以直接购买带有信用评级的该贷款组合份额,而无需额外获得监管机构的批准,对吧?
And what that means is that now a commercial bank could actually buy a slice of that loan book that has a credit rating on it without really needing any additional support from regulators, right?
因为他们已经满足了所有条件。
Because it's kind of they've checked all the boxes here.
因此,我认为最先发展起来的将是商业银行向比特币贷款机构放贷,而比特币贷款机构则以比特币为抵押进行放贷。
And so I think that what we're going to see develop first is that commercial banks are going to lend to Bitcoin lenders and Bitcoin lenders are going to lend against Bitcoin.
所以,无论今天存在哪些产品,我们都会开始看到它们的利率逐渐下降。
So whatever products exist today, what we're going to start seeing is that their interest rates are going to start coming down.
其中一些是多重签名的协作托管,另一些则是完全托管模式。
And so some of those are multi sig collaborative custody, others are really fully custodial.
但这种模式可能会催生新的形式,例如,你自己持有比特币,贷款机构不进行托管,但你将比特币作为抵押,并提供你的信用评级,对吧?
But we might start seeing new models that this enables where you could have, for example, you hold your own Bitcoin, there's no custody by the lender, but you're pledging that Bitcoin and your credit rating, right?
也就是你的传统金融法币信用评分,比如800分之类的。
So your TradFi Fiat 800 credit score or whatever it is.
而这两种因素的结合意味着,这个人有稳定的工作,拥有资产、房产、企业、证券和比特币。
And that the combination of those two mean that, okay, this person has a stable job, they've got assets, they've got homes, businesses, securities, Bitcoin.
我们可以以所有这些资产作为抵押进行贷款,并且确信他们会按时还款。
We can lend against all of that and we know that they're going to be good for it.
因此,从整体上拓宽抵押品范围,我觉得就是这样。
And so kind of widening the collateral base in a really holistic manner, think so.
我认为这就是我们未来的方向,我们可能会看到类似Cash App这样的应用,你可以在Cash App或Robinhood里同时持有传统金融市场的股票和比特币,并以整个投资组合为抵押借款。
I think that's kind of where we're heading and that we might eventually see apps like, for example, Cash App, right, where you might have your TradFi stonks in Cash App or in Robinhood and your Bitcoin there, and you can borrow against them as a whole.
你并不是专门以比特币为抵押借款,而是以你的整个投资组合为抵押。
You're not borrowing against Bitcoin specifically, you're just borrowing against your portfolio.
因此,我认为在零售消费者层面和机构层面都将出现大量创新。
And so I think that there's going to be lots of innovation at the retail consumer level, but also at the institutional level.
因此,我们可以清晰地看到,随着萨莱尔提升公司的信用评级,逐步降低收益率或股息率。
So we can kind of draw a straight line to say, okay, as Saylor improves the credit rating of the company, lowers yields or dividend rates on stretch very gradually.
如果劳伦斯·拉帕德在听的话,这就是他之前问的问题:你们会不会在股息率上坑我们?
In case Lawrence Laparde is listening, this was his question about, Are you going to rug us on the dividend rate?
索勒的回答是:不会,除非对数字信贷的需求过大。
And Saylor's answer was, No, unless there's too much demand for digital credit.
我认为这是正确的回答。
And I think that's the right answer.
因此,在机构层面,我认为我们将看到越来越多针对比特币的大额借贷活动,而不是在零售层面,而且这些利率将会下降。
So at the institutional level, I think that we're going to start seeing more and more activity for borrowing and lending against Bitcoin in large chunks, not at the retail, and those rates are going to come down.
最终我们会看到摩根大通开始介入。
Eventually we'll see JPMorgan Chase start.
我认为他们已经在为高净值个人和私人客户提供贷款,所以他们会先采取最保守的方式,但最终会开放,让你能够轻松获得这种服务。
I think they're already lending for high net worth individuals and kind of private clients, so they're going to start with the you know, most conservative approach, but they'll eventually open it up to where you'll you'll be able to access it pretty easily.
是的。
Yeah.
上次我们讨论策略的第三季度财报电话会议时,我们谈到了数字信贷利差,索勒确实简要提及了他对这些利差走向的看法。
I think last time we discussed the q three earnings call for strategy, we talked about digital credit spreads, and Saylor did offer just a little bit of discussion on where he sees those going.
我认为在最近这次下跌中,观察其表现非常重要。
And I think that it was really important in this most recent drawdown to see how this performed.
我认为这确实是该领域的一个很好的风向标,在很多方面都是一种产品验证。
I think it's a really good bellwether for the space, and I think kind of a a proof of product in many ways.
所以我想先播放这个片段,之后我们再讨论。
So I wanna go ahead and roll that clip, and we'll discuss after that.
我们如何与其它信贷替代方案进行比较?
How do we benchmark ourselves against the other credit alternatives?
你知道,银行账户可能只给你40个基点。
Well, you know, the bank accounts might give you 40 basis points.
货币市场则提供360个基点。
The money markets are giving you 360 basis points.
这是应税的。
Taxable.
保险公司不缴税,捐赠基金也不缴税,但普通民众、家庭、私营企业、上市公司都要缴税。
Insurance companies don't pay tax and endowments don't pay tax, but actual real people, families do, private companies do, public companies pay tax.
世界上有很多人必须缴税。
The world's full of people that have to pay tax.
因此,货币市场360个基点的收益,如果住在纽约或加利福尼亚,缴税后可能只剩下180个基点。
And so three sixty basis points of money markets works out to might be only 180 basis points if you live in New York or California after tax.
所以很明显,我们这里面临的是一个收益匮乏的环境。
So clearly, what we have here is a yield starved environment.
基准利率和无风险利率是360个基点,且需缴税。
The base rate and the risk free rate is three sixty basis points taxable.
这意味着所有传统信贷工具都以此为基准,比如抵押贷款支持证券、投资级债券、垃圾债券,它们的收益率都只比这个无风险利率高出很小的溢价或利差。
And that means that all the conventional credit instruments are pegged to that like mortgage backed securities, investment grade bonds, junk bonds, they all trade at very small premiums or spreads over that risk free rate.
而STRC的票面收益率为11.3%,按面值计算是11.25%。
And STRC is paying 11.3 at par, 11.25% at par.
因此你可以看到,税前收益是它的三倍。
And so you can see here that it's three times more on a on a pretax basis.
但从税后等效收益来看,这就像在迈阿密的一个银行账户,能给你18%的回报。
But on a tax equivalent basis, it's like a bank account in, you know, in Miami that pays you 18%.
你知道,实际收益会更高。
You know, it would be much more.
这就像在纽约市或旧金山,有一个年利率高达22%或23%的银行账户。
It'd be like a bank account that pays you 22% or 23% in New York City or San Francisco.
因此,我们认为我们已经创造了一种相对于其他信贷工具极具吸引力的信贷产品。
So we think we've been able to create a very compelling credit instrument versus other credit instruments.
它的回报只是高出两到四倍。
It's just two to four times better.
这是过去四个月的实际数据快照。
Here's an actual four month snapshot.
这是一个与比特币进行有趣对比的跨度。
And this is an interesting comparison stretch versus Bitcoin.
信贷和资本之间有什么区别?
What's the difference between credit and capital?
在过去四个月里,比特币从2月1日起下跌了30%,之后回升了1%。
Well, in the last four months, Bitcoin has traded down 30% through the February 1, stretches up 1%.
因此,不需要火箭科学家也能看懂这张图表。
And so it doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at this chart.
如果你是退休人员、企业财务主管、固定收益投资者,或者任何类型的投资者,当你看到这两张图表时,如果你对加密货币感兴趣,或者觉得你可能会喜欢比特币,你会想:嗯,我喜欢它,但我就是无法忍受它的波动。
If you're a retiree, if you're a corporate treasurer, if you're a fixed income investor, if you're any kind of investor, and you look at these two charts, if you're crypto curious or you think you might like Bitcoin, you look at this and you think, well, I like it, but I just can't stand them all.
你能明白为什么了。
And you can see why.
你是想要30%的回撤,却没有股息,还是想要1%的价格上涨,同时获得5.3%的现金股息,以及持续11.25%的股息率,并且公司承诺稳定价格至100的目标,不惜一切代价,包括提高股息?
Do you want 30% drawdown and no dividends?
你是想要30%的回撤,却没有股息,还是想要1%的价格上涨,同时获得5.3%的现金股息,以及持续11.25%的股息率,并且公司承诺稳定价格至100的目标,不惜一切代价,包括提高股息?
Or do you want a 1% price appreciation and 5.3% paid dividends with an ongoing 11.25% dividend rate and with the company that's making a commitment to stabilize that price to target 100 and do whatever it takes, including raise the dividend.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我认为,从这一点来看,Stretch在财报电话会议期间交易价格接近面值,这一点本身就说明了很多问题,尤其是在比特币策略资产经历了如此剧烈回撤的背景下。
So I think looking at this, we can definitely see that the fact that Stretch is trading near par at the time of the earnings call, I think, first of all, says a lot given the really, really steep drawdown in strategies equity in Bitcoin, of course.
但我认为,这也表明随着他们不得不上调利率,Stretch所支付的利息——我认为泰勒提供的前瞻性指引,以及他们积累的现金缓冲,都说明了这一点。
But I think also it shows that as they've had to adjust upward, the interest that they pay on stretch, I think that that kind of the forward guidance Taylor has offered, the fact they've built up this cash buffer.
我认为这真正表明,他们有能力以负责任的方式管理这一产品,并让投资者对其充满信任。
And I think really what that says is there is a degree of confidence in their ability to manage this product in a in a responsible way and in a way that investors can trust.
所以我的理解是,这实际上是对该策略的一次压力测试,就像一个真正的数字银行所需要的那样。
And so that was my read on this is that this is really the stress test to that strategy as like a a, you know, almost a digital bank really needed.
而且我也认为,沿着这个思路,今年早些时候我们曾讨论过,这种策略就像是未来的准中央银行。
And I I also think along those lines is, you know, earlier this year, we discussed strategy as this kind of pseudo central bank of the future.
如果你看一下Stretch的实际股息收益率,我记得他们刚才提到大约是18%。
And if you looked at the effective dividend yield that stretch has, it was around, I think, 18%, let's say, they were just discussing.
这让我想起了20世纪80年代的保罗·沃尔克,当时他将利率大幅上调至约18%的水平,随后我们见证了债券市场长达四十年的牛市。
And I'm reminded of Paul Volcker in, you know, the nineteen eighties where he had to jack rates up to about that 18% mark, and we saw a forty year bull run-in the bond market.
我几乎觉得,会不会出现类似的轨迹:我们拥有大约18%的有效收益率,然后缓慢下降,从而开启一场以比特币为抵押的证券牛市。
I almost think, you know, is that going to be a similar trajectory where we have kind of this 18% effective yield, and we're just going to slowly creep downward and and kind of engage in this bull market for Bitcoin backed securities.
我觉得这可能是一个很有价值的思想实验,可以帮助我们理解这一过程如何展开以及何时展开。
Like, I I think that could be, I I think, a fruitful thought experiment for how that plays out and when that plays out.
不过,皮埃尔,我想听听你的看法,自从10月10日以来,这些永续优先股的表现如何,以及你对迈克尔·赛勒关于这一现象的评论有什么看法。
But yeah, I guess, Pierre, you know, your thoughts on, you know, what we've seen over the last, since October 10 until now in terms of how these perpetual preferred equities have performed and what you thought of of Saylor's comments around that.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为他的评论确实触及了一个批评点。
I I I think that his comments really get to a criticism.
我看到很多比特币金库公司普遍缺乏行动。
I see a lot of strategy and of Bitcoin treasury companies in general of, they don't do anything.
它们没有任何运营。
They don't have any operations.
它们没有
They don't have
一个
a
产品。
product.
它们如何赚钱?
How do they make money?
我认为这从实证上表明,这就是产品。
And I think that what this shows empirically is that this is the product.
这就是产品。
This is the product.
到目前为止,它的表现相当不错,因为它们一直在支付股息,且其价值相对于比特币保持了高度稳定。
It works so far pretty well in that they've been paying the dividends and the value has been very stable relative to Bitcoin's value.
而且市场对更多产品有需求,对吧?
And there's been demand for more, right?
因此,它们能够通过自动取款机继续增发。
So they've been able to follow on with additional issuance through the ATM.
我们还看到了Strive的新闻——坦白说,我是那里的独立董事——但宣布他们为SATA产品进行了第二次发行,该产品在设计上与Stretch非常相似。
And we also saw news from Strive, full disclosure, I'm an independent board member there, but it was announced that they had a second offering for their SATA product, which is much similar to Stretch in its design.
因此,显然市场对这种数字信贷产品仍有持续需求。
And so clearly there's continued demand for the digital credit product.
为什么会这样?
Why is that?
我认为任何比特币支持者都不会忽略这样一个解释:比特币波动性太大。
I don't think that any Bitcoiner has kind of missed out on the explanation that Bitcoin is too volatile.
这可能是对比特币最大的异议。
That's maybe the number one objection to Bitcoin.
不是碳排放,也不是其他任何问题,而是波动性。
It's not the carbon emissions, it's not like anything else, it's the volatility.
我认为对我们很多人来说,这根本不是问题,因为我们年轻、懂技术、愿意承担风险,所以我们很难理解那些需要稳定现金流、稳定收入、风险厌恶、不愿经历上涨1000%然后下跌90%的人。
And I think that for a lot of us, it's not an issue because we're young, we're tech savvy, we're risk seeking, so we just can't relate to somebody who is needing a steady cash flow, needs steady income, and is risk averse and doesn't want to go up 1000% and then down 90%.
即使最终结果更好,但对那些与我们观点不同的人来说,通往那里的过程依然痛苦不堪。
Even if the end result is better, the path to get there is just horrifically painful for people who don't have the same views as we do.
因此,我认为Sailor真正搭建的桥梁,是连接一方面非常保守的人群,和另一方面希望超越比特币的人群。
And so I think that's really the bridge that Sailor is building is between those very conservative people on one hand, and then on the other hand, there's people who want to outperform Bitcoin.
过去,他们要么投资于山寨币,要么投资于比特币挖矿,试图寻找超越比特币的途径。
So historically, they were gambling with altcoins or, I don't know, investing in Bitcoin mining, trying to find angles to outperform Bitcoin.
而现在,他们有了一个更清晰的工具来实现这一点,那就是这些比特币资产负债表公司的股权,这些公司通过杠杆或放大效应运作——如果你看涨比特币,那么从机制上讲,它们的表现将超越比特币,但前提是你要买对MNAV。
And now they kind of have a cleaner vehicle to do that with the equity of these Bitcoin treasury companies that are levered up or amplified up because if they're bullish on Bitcoin, that mechanically is going to outperform Bitcoin with the caveat that it depends on what MNAV you're buying.
目前我认为MNAV大致在1附近,所以除了单纯看空比特币本身,很难理解看空的理由。
Right now I think MNAVs are hovering around one, so it's kind of hard to understand the bear case other than just being outright bearish on Bitcoin itself.
所以,是的,我觉得这张图表非常棒,它将比特币的波动性与他正在开发的、由比特币支持但与比特币截然不同的新型数字信贷产品的波动性进行了对比。
And so, yeah, I thought that was a really great chart to compare the volatility of Bitcoin to the volatility of this new digital credit products that he's developing that are backed by Bitcoin, but very different from Bitcoin.
这一点值得在每次机会中反复强调。
So that's worth repeating at every opportunity.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对我来说,我想到的是,Sailor正在为不同需求的人开发多种产品。
What what comes to mind for me is that their Sailor is developing this multitude of horses for courses.
我的意思是,有些人希望获得超越比特币的回报。
And what I mean by that is that you have people that are looking for Bitcoin outperformance.
他们愿意承受巨大的回撤,以追求那种超越比特币的回报,但同时你也看到各种永续优先股产品,它们的股息率各不相同。
They're willing to withstand massive drawdowns in search of, you know, again, that that Bitcoin outperformance, but you also have these various perpetual preferred equity products that have various dividend rates on them.
而且它们的波动性特征也各不相同。
And they also have different volatility profiles.
我认为这一点是他自己也说过的话。
And I think that this is I I think he said it himself.
这是投资界进入比特币的一个入口,我认为我们常说的,是他们应得的价格,同时也是他们所期望的波动水平。
This is a gateway for the investing universe to get into Bitcoin at I think we often say the price they deserve, but also at the the volatility that they want.
我认为这是一个非常非常契合的产品与市场匹配,这让我思考比特币在当今社会中的用途——我们的社会中,普通个人是否真的适合使用近乎核级别的支付技术、自己保管密钥,或者是否应该承受这种波动?我认为历史表明,很多人无法承受这种波动。
I think that that's a really, really interesting product market fit, and it has me thinking about what is the use of Bitcoin in a society you know, our society today is does it make sense for the everyday individual within The United States to be using essentially nuclear grade payments technology handling their own keys, or does it makes and, you know, withstanding the volatility, I think history would show that a lot of people can't withstand that volatility.
这并不是说他们对这种资产没有信念。
It's not to say that, you know, they don't have conviction in the asset.
更准确地说,是他们的投资时间线与比特币的波动性不匹配。
It's more to say that they have a timeline mismatch with the volatility of Bitcoin.
我们确实看到人们在底部抛售,不幸的是,这种情况太常见了。
And we do see people sell sell the bottoms, you know, unfortunately, all too common.
因此,我认为更宏观的战略是,他们为人们提供了一种适度的比特币投资方式,这种程度我认为对他们的投资目标是有益的。
And so I think that the the bigger picture around strategy and what they're doing is they're giving people, like, kind of this dose of Bitcoin at a level that I think is salutary to to their investing goals.
但我认为这引出了一个更广泛的问题:普通个人是会直接投资比特币,还是会投资这些比特币化的股权产品?
But I think it raises the broader question of, you know, will everyday individuals be investing in Bitcoin, or will they be investing in these Bitcoinized equity products?
那么这条道路未来会如何发展?
What path does that take going forward?
而且他们是有选择的,对吧?
Well, and they have the choice, right?
他们可以采取其中一些组合方式。
And they can do some combination thereof.
但我认为,如果我们真想扩大采用率并加速比特币的普及,选择自由至关重要。
But I think that freedom of choice is crucial if we really want to broaden adoption and to accelerate Bitcoin adoption.
我知道有些人说购买Stretch不算比特币采用,也许对你来说不算,但对其他人来说就算。
I know that some people say buying Stretch is not Bitcoin adoption, and maybe it's not to you, but to somebody else it is.
所以我们必须接受这种主观价值理论,以及人们之间巨大的差异。
And so we have to embrace that subjective theory of value combined with just how different people are.
因为如果我们设想一个思想实验:我们该如何实现比特币的完全自我主权采用呢?
Because if we think about a thought experiment of how could we get full self sovereign adoption of Bitcoin, right?
每个人都持有自己的密钥。
Everybody's holding their own keys.
每个人都在运行自己的节点。
Everybody's running their own node.
先把扩展性问题放一边。
Set aside the scaling question.
我们就假设这个问题已经解决了,对吧?
Let's just assume that's solved, right?
比特币完全能够扩展到支持80亿人。
Bitcoin fully scales to 8,000,000,000 people.
我们该如何让每个人都在基础层上采用比特币?
How do we get everyone to adopt Bitcoin at the base layer?
我们必须禁止其他所有东西。
We would have to ban everything else.
你使用第三方托管服务将变得完全非法。
It would literally be illegal for you to use a third party custodian.
这是我们能达到这一目标的唯一方式。
That's the only way we could get there.
或者如果你使用第三方托管,你100%会被割韭菜,因此这就是确保人们自己保管私钥的方式。
Or if you use a third party custodian, you'll get rugged 100% of the time, and so that's how you make sure that people are holding their own keys.
这有点反乌托邦,对吧?
That's kind of dystopian, right?
这意味着社会已经失败了,所以我们必须使用比特币的底层网络,每个人都必须使用它。
That's saying that society has failed, so that's why we have to use the Bitcoin base layer and everybody has to use it.
而今天,任何人如果愿意都可以这么做,但很多人可能觉得没必要,因为他们只想要金融敞口,比如iBit、MSTR、Stretch。
Versus today, where anyone can if they want to, a lot of people might feel like they don't need to because all they're looking for is financial exposure, whether it's iBit, MSTR, Stretch.
他们并不追求自我主权。
They're not looking for self sovereignty.
他们已经觉得自己足够有主权了。
They already feel self sovereign enough.
或者他们已经拥有自己掌控的比特币,满足了那种对安全的边际需求,现在他们只是想在不同媒介上分散自己的比特币敞口。
Or they already own Bitcoin that's already self sovereign and they've kind of satisfied that marginal desire for safety and now they just want to diversify their Bitcoin exposure across different media.
我们当然可以提出一个意识形态纯粹主义的论点来反对它,但这种论点永远都只是意识形态纯粹主义的论点,对吧?这完全没问题。
And bet we could make an ideological purist argument against it, but that's what that argument will always remain, ideological purist argument, right, which is totally fine.
从实际角度来看,它并不能预测未来会发生什么,这正是我最大的批评。
Pragmatically, it's not predictive of what's going to happen, And that I is my biggest criticism of it.
并不是说它不好。
It's not that it's, you know, bad.
我只是不认为事情会朝那个方向发展。
It's just that I don't think that's what's gonna happen.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我认为这正是比特币纯粹主义观点与我所认为的具有美德展示和营销吸引力的比特币理念之间争论的核心。
I think this is the core of the the debate between kind of the Bitcoin, the puritanical Bitcoin outlook that I think is attractive in terms of virtue signaling and marketing.
它确实有一定的吸引力,但我认为在实践中,我们看到个人对比特币有不同的需求和应用场景。
It's it is there's a certain allure to it, but I think in practice, we see individuals need different tools and have different applications for Bitcoin in their lives.
我认为这正是这种情况的体现。
And I I I think that this is exactly how that plays out.
我只是想把它划清界限,因为你也可以在数字资产金库和更广泛的生态系统中成为比特币纯粹主义者,比如,不是专门挑他们的毛病,但以太坊已经彻底修订了他们的路线图。
I just I just wanna ring fence it because you can also be a Bitcoin puritan with regards to the digital asset treasuries and kind of the wider ecosystem there where, you know, just not to pick on them, but Ethereum has been completely revising their roadmap.
所以我刚刚听了我们Bankless朋友的播客,你不能把所有比特币的原则都套用到其他加密货币上,因为最终你确实需要固定供应量、2100万枚比特币、高度可靠的去中心化网络,而所有的金融工程都建立在软件工程之上。
So I was just listening to our friends at Bankless on their podcast, and you can't apply all of the same principles of Bitcoin to all the other cryptocurrencies because ultimately you do need that backstop of fixed supply, 21,000,000 Bitcoin, super reliable decentralized network, and that all of the financial engineering is downstream of the software engineering.
我认为这一点也需要被强调。
And I think that that's also something that needs to be emphasized.
否则,它就会变成一场充满镜像、烟雾和幻觉的狂欢。
Otherwise, it kind of turns into a fun house of mirrors smoke and mirrors type stuff.
所以是的。
So yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我认为,如果比特币要成为基准利率,成为基础层抵押品,那么它已经被设计成这样了;你看看其他数字资产,它们在实现这一目标时,很多情况下都是本末倒置。
I think if Bitcoin is going to be the hurdle rate, going to be this base layer collateral, I mean, I think, you know, it's been designed in such a way and you you look at other digital assets and, they're trying to put the the the cart before the horse in many ways when it comes to achieving that outcome.
所以,我觉得时间会说明一切,但我也不会屏息以待。
So, you know, I think the tape will tell, but, you know, I'll I I won't be waiting with bated breath.
我觉得我们对比特币与其他资产的基本特质有着非常坚定的看法。
I think I think we feel pretty strongly about, you know, the qualities the fundamental qualities of Bitcoin versus other assets.
我想换个话题,谈谈冯力在这次财报电话会上的一些评论。
And I wanna kinda shift gears here and and go into some comment comments that Feng Li offered in this earnings call.
我认为他提供了一些有趣的指引,关于他们对未来股息率的看法,以及在美联储利率环境变化背景下对策略和股权表现的预测。
I think he provided some interesting guidance on how they see, you know, their dividend rates going into the future and kind of their projections for strategies, equity performance in the context of a changing interest rate environment from the Fed.
所以我想先播放这段内容,然后我们再据此讨论。
So I want to go ahead and roll that and we'll we'll discuss accordingly.
在未来六到七年里,我们增加每股比特币的方式是出售数字信贷。
The way we're going to increase Bitcoin per share over the course of the next six, seven years is we are going to sell digital credit.
那么数字信贷是什么作用呢?
And what does digital credit do?
通过出售数字信贷,我们实现杠杆放大。
By selling digital credit, we generate amplification.
通过产生放大效应,我们增加了每股比特币的数量。
By generating amplification, we increase bitcoin per share.
通过增加每股比特币的数量,MSTR普通股的表现优于比特币。
By increasing bitcoin per share, MSTR common outperforms bitcoin.
这是一个非常简单的公式。
It's a very simple formula.
那么,输入是什么?
And what are the inputs?
我们能卖出多少数字信贷?也就是我们能撬动多少杠杆?
How much digital credit can we sell, which is how much stretch can we sell?
这里有一个假设:在600亿美元比特币的基础上,如果我们能卖出10%的数字信贷,即60亿美元,这将是它随着时间推移可能呈现的样子。
Here is an assumption that on a base of $60,000,000,000 of Bitcoin, if we can sell 10% of digital credit, which is $6,000,000,000 this is what this might look like over time.
你说60亿美元是多还是少?
And you say $6,000,000,000 that a lot or is that a little?
去年,我们卖出了70亿美元的数字信贷,并在股权资本市场筹集了超过250亿美元。
Well, last year we sold $7,000,000,000 of digital credit and we raised over $25,000,000,000 in the equity capital markets.
所以我们认为这是一个相当保守的假设,60亿美元。
So we think this is a fairly conservative assumption, 6,000,000,000.
这假设了10%的股息率,这是我们目前的水平,并且我们通过发行股票来支付股息或数字信用,汇率为1.34 XMNAV。
This assumes a 10% dividend rate, which is where we are right now, and that we're issuing equity to pay for the dividend or digital credit at 1.34 XMNAV.
对。
Right.
因此,我会称这是低情景。
And so I'll call this a low scenario.
如果我们在未来七年里保持这种低情景,比特币每股将增长1.4倍。
If we have this low scenario over the course of seven years, we'll increase Bitcoin per share 1.4 X.
这相当于每年5%的比特币收益率。
That's a 5% annual Bitcoin yield.
下一张幻灯片。
Next slide.
如果我们能做得更好一点呢?
What if we can do a little bit better?
如果我们假设数字信贷销售额达到160亿美元呢?
What if we can assume 16 of digital credit sales?
不是60亿美元,而是100亿美元,如果美联储降息,或者我们能将数字信贷的利率降至9%呢?
So not $6,000,000,000 but $10,000,000,000 What if the Fed lowers interest rates or we're able to low interest rates on our digital credit down to 9%?
如果这种前景让投资者相信我们能提升每股比特币持有量,MNAV上升,从而放大比特币和MSTR的价值呢?
And what if the view of this causes investors to believe we'll increase bitcoin per share and our MNAV goes up and we have amplified bitcoin and MSTR?
我们能否实现1.75倍的MNAV?
Are we able to get to 1.75 x MNAV?
在假设30%的比特币年经常性收入(ARR)的情况下,七年内每股比特币将增长两倍,相当于年化比特币收益率为10%。
This scenario with assumption of 30% Bitcoin ARR gets us to a 2x increase in Bitcoin per share over seven years, which is a 10% annual BTC yield.
下一张幻灯片。
Next slide.
更激进的情景会是什么样子?
What does a more aggressive scenario look like?
也许我们可以假设数字信贷销售额达到20%,并将股息率降至8%,同时MNAV上升至2.25倍,那么七年内每股比特币可提升2.5倍,年化比特币收益率达到14%。
Maybe we can assume 20% digital credit sales, we're able to drive the dividend rate down to 8% and our MNAV goes up to 2.25, then we can increase Bitcoin per share 2.5 times over seven years and a 14% annual Bitcoin yield.
这是另一种情景。
That's another scenario.
接下来我将进入我这部分的最后一页幻灯片。
And I'll go to the final slide of my section.
最终,这是公司的战略。
Ultimately, this is the strategy of the company.
我们将通过Stretch发行数字信贷。
We're going to issue digital credit through stretch.
由于这一点,我们将放大普通股权。
We're going to amplify the common equity because of it.
这将提高我们的每股比特币持有量,并使我们超越比特币的表现。
It increases our bitcoin per share and we outperform bitcoin.
我们可以调整哪些杠杆因素?
What are the levers that we can play with?
我们能卖出多少数字信贷?
How much digital credit can we sell?
我们能让Stretch变得多有吸引力?
How attractive can we make stretch?
我们推广它有多好?
How well do we market it?
我们分销它有多好?
How well do we distribute it?
需求增加后,我们可以降低信贷成本,并提高MNAV。
With higher demand, we can lower the cost of credit and we'll increase the MNAV.
这就是公司的理念,也是我们期待并将在2026年专注的事情。
That's the thesis for the company, and that's what we're excited to do, and that's what we're going to focus on in 2026.
是的。
Yeah.
所以这是策略部门的CEO冯莉,对他认为公司在数字信贷和每股比特币方面未来前景的阐述。
So that was Fong Li, CEO of Strategy, giving his kind of guidance on where he thinks their future projections with regards to digital credit and their their Bitcoin per share lie.
我认为这其中一个有趣的潜在假设是,数字信贷的信贷利差是多少?
And I think that one of the interesting assumptions underlying this is what are the credit spreads on digital credit?
这与联邦基金利率有什么关系?
How does this relate to the Fed funds rate?
所以我认为我们可以调整很多因素。
And so I think there's a lot of knobs we can turn.
但我认为,归根结底,这表明相对于比特币生态系统及其他广泛投资工具而言,这种通过发行数字信贷、ATM发行来增加每股比特币的方式,是一种风险最小化的超越比特币的策略。
But I think, ultimately, what this shows is that this is a relative to all other instruments in in the Bitcoin ecosystem and investing broadly, I think that this is the kind of risk minimized means of outperforming Bitcoin is through this increasing Bitcoin per share through the issuance of digital credit, ATM issuance as well to to fund that.
但我认为,展望未来,如果你在七年里将每股比特币提高100%,那将是极其显著的超额收益。
But I think that, you know, looking ahead, if you increase your Bitcoin per share by a 100% over seven years, like, that is some extremely significant outperformance.
我认为,人们往往忽视了这一机制的运作原理;如果有人批评这一策略,他们可能会直接将其视为零,只说:‘他在稀释股权。’
And I think that's something that people the mechanics of that, I think people discount when if, say, a critic of strategy will discount that to zero and just say, oh, he's diluting the equity.
你必须指望比特币暴涨,才能看到任何超额收益。
You need Bitcoin to moon to see any any outperformance.
我认为,如果你在七年里仅凭每股比特币就实现了100%的增长,那这就是你实实在在的超额收益。
And I think that, you know, if you see an increase of a 100% over seven years in in just the Bitcoin per share, that's your outperformance right there.
所以,我觉得冯首先提出这个观点非常重要。
And so, you know, I thought I thought Phong, first of all, important to make that pitch.
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而且他最后提到的最重要的一点,我认为是这方面的市场营销。
And and really the the important piece that he mentioned at the end, I think, is the marketing of this.
你如何让目标受众理解这种策略在做什么,以及它如何与他们的投资目标相关?
How do you get the target audience to understand what it is strategy is doing and how that applies to their investing goals?
而且,彼得,你最近在财报电话会上问过,公司有哪些与市场营销相关的计划?
And and that was something, Peter, you asked on a recent earnings call was what are strategies plans related to marketing?
我知道他们一直在进行所谓的比特币数字信贷巡回推介。
I know they've been on the road to to kind of the the Bitcoin digital credit roadshow, so to speak.
但你知道,皮埃尔,你对冯所说的话有什么看法吗?
But, you know, Pierre, do you have thoughts on on what Feng had to say?
但我特别想听听你对这些产品市场营销的看法,尤其是考虑到你与Strive的合作。
But I think in particular, would like to hear how you think about the marketing of these products, especially given your work with Strive.
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
所以我认为,关于利率走向,这是一个非常有趣的问题,尤其是当我们关注美联储和新任命的美联储官员凯文·沃什时,他历史上曾发表过一些相当对比特币友好的观点。
So I think then on in terms of where it's gonna go for rates, I think that's a really interesting question when we look at the Federal Reserve and the new appointee there at the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, who has actually said some pretty Bitcoin friendly things historically.
这非常有前景。
So that's really promising.
不过关于利率,我认为未来十二到二十四个月利率的走向存在很大不确定性。
On the rates, though, I think there's a lot of uncertainty about where rates are going to go over the next twelve, twenty four months.
因此,我认为要讨论比特币价格及其下跌原因,关键在于这种围绕利率以及凯文·沃什将采取何种行动的不确定性,因为关于他是鹰派还是鸽派,双方都有很强的论据。
And so I actually think that to talk about the Bitcoin price and what's causing it to crash, I think it's all this uncertainty around rates and what Kevin Worsch is going to do because there's really strong arguments in both directions of he's hawkish or he's dovish.
当前经济信号纷繁复杂,我认为这都与人工智能有关。
There's a lot of mixed economic signals, and I think that that is due to AI.
例如,你可能会看到劳动力市场非常疲软,因为大家都在雇佣智能代理,但GDP增长却非常强劲,因为这些代理的生产效率极高。
And so you could see, for example, a very weak labor market because everybody's hiring agents, but very strong GDP growth because these agents are insanely productive.
当我们思考美联储在GDP增长、通胀和就业之间的双重使命时,我认为目前这一切都变得模糊不清,而这种不确定性正是导致比特币价格下跌的原因,对吧?
You can actually, when we think about the Federal Reserve's dual mandate between GDP growth, inflation, employment, that's actually I think all up in the air right now and that's the kind of uncertainty that drives Bitcoin price down, right?
因此,一旦未来走向变得明确,我们才能开始思考不同的可能情景。
So once the certainty forms around what's coming next, that's where we can start thinking about some different scenarios.
所以一种可能是,凯文·沃什特开始降息并放宽信贷条件。
So one scenario would be that essentially Kevin Worscht starts lowering interest rates and easing credit conditions.
目前流动性略显紧张。
Right now liquidity is a little bit tight.
如果他们认为人工智能将带来极度通缩,因此我们不再需要担心通胀,那么我们就必须确保充分就业。
If they have a view that AI is going to be hyper deflationary and so we don't have to worry about inflation anymore, then we've got to really make sure we maintain full employment.
即将到来中期选举。
There's a midterm coming up.
显然还有下一届总统大选。
There's obviously the next presidential election.
他们希望保持共和党执政,因此我认为他们可能会采取宽松政策。
They'll want to keep it Republican, and so I think they could run it hot.
但如果他们的判断正确,通胀并未真正上升,这对比特币意味着什么?
But if they're right and inflation doesn't really tick up, what does that look like for Bitcoin?
我仍然认为比特币的表现会非常好。
I actually still think Bitcoin will do very well.
如果我们看一下比特币的价格历史,即使在通胀率较低的时候,比如新冠疫情之前,它仍然表现得非常出色。
If we look at Bitcoin's price history, even when inflation was low, for example before COVID, it still obviously did very well.
我们在几年内从零美元涨到了,比如说,新冠疫情前的两万美元。
We went from $0 to, let's say before COVID, dollars 20,000 in a matter of years.
所以我认为,即使没有两位数的通胀,而只是2%或1%的通胀,比特币仍然可能表现得极为出色,因为货币印刷与生产率提升的结合最终只会净增1%或2%。
So I think that Bitcoin could still do extremely well even if we don't have double digit inflation and we just have 2% inflation or 1% inflation because that combination of the money printing with the increase in productivity just nets out to 1% or two percent.
所以我认为这将是非常看涨的。
So I think that that could be hugely bullish.
然后,另一种情况是,所有这些对人工智能的投资最终会面临边际收益递减,导致基础设施过度建设、债务过高,无法偿还用于建造数万亿美元数据中心和其他基础设施所借的贷款。
Then combine that with a different scenario would be that all of these investments in AI eventually achieve diminishing marginal returns and they overbuild infrastructure, it's over indebted, and they can't pay off the loans that they spent to build trillions of dollars worth of data centers and other infrastructure.
这就像光纤网络在互联网泡沫时期所发生的情况。
And this is what happened with, for example, fiber optics with the .com bubble.
他们过度建设了光纤电缆。
They overbuilt fiber optic cables.
随后出现了巨大的过剩,大量光纤处于闲置状态。
Then there was just a massive glut, all this dark fiber.
我们可能会开始听到关于被关闭的暗GPU的消息,因为需求不足,也许软件变得越来越好,越来越高效。
We might start hearing about dark GPUs that are just turned off because there's not enough demand because maybe the software gets better and better, more and more efficient.
或者人们开始在边缘设备上进行推理,对吧?
Or people start doing inference at the edge, right?
模型变得如此优秀,以至于你不再需要在云端进行推理。
The models get so good that you don't need to do inference in the cloud.
但这只是一个假设,对吧?
But that's just a scenario, right?
所以有这么多可能的情景会发生,这正是目前许多投资者所感受到的不确定性。
So there's all these different scenarios that could play out, and that's the uncertainty right now that I think a lot of allocators are experiencing.
我认为,在最不确定的未来中,你最应该持有的是最确定的资产。
I think that ultimately in the most uncertain future, you want to hold the most certain asset.
因此,我认为比特币的基本面每天都在改善。
And that's why I think that the fundamentals for Bitcoin are getting better every day.
TikTok 下一个区块。
TikTok next block.
我们将用人工智能来解决量子问题。
We're going to use AI to fix the quantum problem.
我们来谈谈这个。
Let's touch on that.
你知道,回头来看,这可能会显得可笑。
You know, it's going to be, I think, laughable in hindsight.
我们会说,还记得我们当初担心量子计算的时候吗?
We'll be like, oh, remember when we were worried about quantum?
然后,我们告诉ChatGPT11一次性解决它,它就真的做到了。
And then, you know, we told ChatGPT11 to one shot fix it and, you know, it does it.
就这样吧。
It's like, okay.
所以,这就是我对这个问题的看法。
So yeah, that's kind of my read on.
那么,这会如何影响战略呢?
Then, of course, how does that impact strategy?
如果他们降低利率,这将改善Stretch的条件,因为即使Stretch在10%的利率下不削减,利差现在也在扩大。
Well, if they cut interest rates and that improves conditions for stretch, because even if Stretch does not cut at 10% interest rates, now the spread is increasing.
因此,不参与Stretch的机会成本增加了。
So the opportunity cost of not being in Stretch increases.
再结合比特币的看涨价格走势。
Then combine that with a bullish price path for Bitcoin.
显然,这对策略将大有裨益。
Obviously that would be hugely beneficial for strategy.
许多看空者一直在得意洋洋地发布从迈阿密游艇派对新年第一天的历史新高到今天的价格图表。
A lot of the bears who have been gloating and posting price charts from the all time high of the yacht party in Miami, New Year's Day, to today.
这张图表确实很难看,但我认为未来我们有机会展示另一张图表,来说明他们当时得意洋洋是多么错误——他们本应趁机积累,无论是比特币、MSTR还是其他任何资产。
It's a pretty ugly chart, but we'll have the opportunity, I think, in the future to show a different chart that kind of shows how wrong they were to be gloating when they should have been accumulating, whether it's Bitcoin or MSTR or anything else.
是的。
Yeah.
我本人很期待第二次十万美元派对。
I, for one, look forward to the second 100 k party.
我认为反弹会更加甜美。
I think the comeback will be even sweeter.
而且关于你提到的不确定性,我觉得这完美地引出了我们下一个讨论话题,你也提到了量子恐惧情绪。
And and I think on your point around uncertainty, I think that's a perfect segue into our next cop topic of discussion that you alluded to as well is kind of the quantum FUD.
我有点惊讶看到迈克尔·赛勒在财报电话会上谈到了这个问题,表达了他对量子计算的看法,以及Strategy如何希望应对这一话题。
And I was somewhat surprised to see Saylor speak about this on their earnings call, offering his thoughts on quantum and how strategy wants to help address this, like, topic of conversation.
我认为这也表明,他感受到了投资者对这个问题的担忧。
And I and I think what this shows too is that he is getting a signal that investors have concerns about this.
否则,你知道,这根本不会成为一个讨论的话题。
I think that otherwise, you know, this would be a non a topic of non conversation.
但我还是先抛出这个话题,我们可以据此展开讨论。
But I'll I'll go ahead and roll this, and we can discuss accordingly.
当前最令人担忧的是量子计算机,许多人问:量子计算机是否对比特币构成威胁?
The the concern du jour is quantum computers, and many people ask, do quantum computers represent a threat to Bitcoin?
我要指出的是,量子计算的担忧和量子恐惧情绪,只是自比特币诞生以来层出不穷的种种可怕恐慌情绪中的最新一例。
I would note that the quantum computing concern and quantum FUD is just the latest in a long litany and a a parade of horrible FUD that has been taking place since the beginning of Bitcoin.
曾经有过功能性的恐慌。
There was functionality FUD.
比特币功能不够强大,所以会失败。
Bitcoin's not functional enough, so it will fail.
它需要智能合约。
It needs smart contracts.
然后人们认为它是个庞氏骗局,接着又觉得它太波动了,再后来又说它有漏洞。
And then people thought it was a Ponzi, and then they thought it was too volatile, and then they thought, well, there was a bug in it.
也许会被51%攻击,也许中国控制了太多比特币。
And maybe it'll be 51% attacked, maybe the Chinese controlled too much of it.
然后有人说中国关闭了比特币。
And then there was the Chinese shut it down.
这与中国的恐慌相反。
It was the opposite of the China FUD.
这是中国不接受比特币的情况。
It was the China non embrace.
接着我们又遇到了各种区块大小限制和带宽洪水的担忧。
And then we had all manner of block size wards and bandwidth flood.
然后出现了耗电的担忧。
And then there was a uses electricity FUD.
接着是财富集中担忧,当然,之后又有人说另一种加密货币会更好。
And then there was a Wealth Concentration FUD, and then of course, then there was another crypto will be better.
我想说的是,面对每一个这样的担忧,我们都必须认真对待。
What I would say is whenever dealing with each of these concerns, we have to we have to take them seriously.
我们必须认真考虑它们。
We have to consider them.
但我们必须记住两件事。
But we have to remember two things.
第一,《银河系漫游指南》背面写的两个词。
One, the two words on the back of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.
别慌。
Don't panic.
最重要的两个词,比百科全书或《银河系漫游指南》中的所有内容都更重要。
Most important two words, more important than everything in the encyclopedia or the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.
第二个观察,希波克拉底誓言:不伤害。
The second observation, the Hippocratic Oath, do no harm.
因此,当你面对任何系统或网络中的挑战时,必须确保自己不恐慌,不被逼迫做出愚蠢或破坏性的举动。
And so whenever you're faced with a challenge in any system or any network, You have to make sure you don't panic, you're not railroaded into doing something foolish or destructive.
同时,你也绝不能做出造成伤害的行为。
And you also can't do something that causes harm.
你不想出现医源性干预——即治疗比疾病本身更糟糕的情况。
You don't want an iatrogenic intervention where the cure is worse than the disease.
关于量子计算,我们的立场是:第一,我们认为至少还需要十年或更久才会构成威胁。
So our position on quantum computing, one, we think it's probably ten or more years away before there's a threat.
这是共识。
That is the consensus.
这是一项有前景的技术,但目前仍处于早期阶段。
It's a promising technology, but it's still nascent.
许多行业,包括金融和国防,都依赖于传统加密技术。
Many industries, including finance and defense, are dependent upon traditional cryptography.
它们面临同样的风险。
They face the same risks.
全球正在大力投资开发抗量子协议,不仅仅是在比特币社区,而是在所有领域。
There's a significant global investment going into building quantum resistant protocols, not just in the Bitcoin community, across all communities.
比特币社区具体而言,正在积极参与这些领域的研究与开发。
The Bitcoin community in specific is engaged on research and development in these efforts.
目前正在进行许多出色的工作。
There's good work that's taking place.
如果比特币需要升级,将会达成全球共识。
If Bitcoin requires an upgrade, there will be global consensus.
目前,全球尚未达成共识认为现有的加密库存在风险。
Right now, there isn't global consensus that existing cryptographic libraries are at risk.
在尚未达成共识之前就仓促采取假设性的解决方案,反而会引入当前并不存在的新攻击面、新复杂性和新故障模式。
And to stampede into a hypothetical fix before there is consensus would introduce new attack surfaces and new complexity and new failure modes that don't currently exist.
这就像过度接种疫苗,你知道的,就好像有个十万分之一的概率孩子可能会得病。
It's very similar to over vaccinating, you know, and it's like, well, there's a zero point zero zero one percent chance that the kid might get a disease.
所以我们还是给他们接种疫苗,以防万一。
So we're going to vaccinate them just in case.
但当然,有百分之三接种疫苗的人会出现副作用。
But of course, three percent of the people that get the vaccine have side effects.
对吧?
Right?
因此,我们绝对不能过度保险、过度接种、过度治疗或过度担忧。
And so it's very important that we don't over insure, over vaccinate, over treat, over worry.
美国一位著名的总统曾说过,如果你在路上看到十个问题,其中九个可能在到达你面前之前就自己掉进沟里了。
So famous president of The United States, he said, If you see 10 problems driving down the road, nine of them will probably drive themselves into a ditch before they get to you.
所以你绝对不能买一百份昂贵的保险,这些保险加起来花费你百分之百的运营收入,只为防范一个只有2%可能发生的事情。
So the one thing you can't do is you can't buy a 100 expensive insurance policies that cost collectively 100% of all your operating income to insure against something which is 2% likely to happen.
这就是为什么你在应对这些风险时必须非常谨慎。
That's why you have to be very thoughtful about addressing these risks.
你必须在正确的时间应对这些风险,不能太早,也不能太晚,因为太早的话,你可能还没有合适的技术,就会过度保险。
And you have to address them at the right time, not too soon, not too late, but because too soon, you probably don't have the right technology and you're over insuring.
太晚,对吧?
Too late, right?
你会接受本不该接受的风险。
You accept the risk that you shouldn't.
因此,达成共识非常重要。
That's why consensus is very important.
如果量子升级得以实施,比特币将会变得更强大。
Bitcoin will be stronger if and when that quantum upgrade takes place.
对吧?
Right?
比特币是可以升级的,并且能够通过升级变得更强大。
And so Bitcoin is upgradable, and Bitcoin can be upgraded to be stronger.
当然,我们是乐观主义者。
And we, of course, are optimists.
我们相信,人类会接受挑战,并以理性的方式升级自身来应对这些挑战。
And we believe we believe that the human race will accept challenges and will upgrade to meet those challenges and do it in a rational fashion.
比特币历来以理性的方式应对挑战,从而变得更强大,你可以看到所有这些例子。
And and Bitcoin has a history of meeting challenges in a rational fashion such that it that it is stronger, and you can see all those examples.
最后,但可能是本幻灯片中最重要的,是战略:我们将启动一项比特币安全计划,与全球网络安全界、全球加密安全界以及全球比特币安全委员会协调合作。
Last, but probably most important on this slide, strategy, we are going to initiate a Bitcoin security program that coordinates with the global cybersecurity community, the global crypto security community, and the global Bitcoin security committee.
以贡献于共识性解决方案,应对量子计算威胁以及其他任何新兴的安全威胁。
In order to and contribute to consensus solutions to address the quantum computing threat, as well as any other emergent security threats that evolved.
考虑到我们作为比特币持有者所承担的重大责任,我们认为这样做是合理且恰当的,但我们希望以非常负责任的方式进行。
We think it's it's reasonable and appropriate for us to do this given our large responsibility as a Bitcoin holder, but we wanna do it in a very responsible fashion.
我们希望确保与全球网络、加密和比特币安全社区协调合作,因为这里有许多非常杰出的人才。
And we wanna make sure that we coordinate with the global cyber crypto and Bitcoin security community because there are a lot of very, very brilliant minds here.
目前已有大量出色的工作在进行。
There's a lot of good work being done.
很可能在适当的时候,以负责任的方式形成共识并产生解决方案。
And and it's likely that consensus will form and solutions will form at the right time in responsible fashion.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我认为,再次强调,Saylor 谈论量子计算安全问题这一事实,清楚地表明了他与投资者、关心这一问题的人士在镜头外的交流内容。
So I I think, again, the fact that Saylor was addressing this question of of security against quantum computing is is telling, again, of, I think, the conversations he's having off camera with investors, people that are concerned about this.
我认为在比特币领域,我这么说可能不对,但人们过去确实有点轻率、含糊其辞地说:‘嘿。’
I think that in the Bitcoin space I I may be incorrect in saying this, but I think people have been a little bit flippant, little bit hand wavy saying, hey.
这问题会自己解决的。
This is something that will sort itself out.
而且,正如泰勒所言,这可能是一种会自行陷入困境的威胁。
And, you know, again, perhaps to Taylor's point, this is some you know, a threat that might drive itself into a ditch.
但我认为,这其实是一种转变,因为过去 Saylor 一直说,比特币是一个绝对不可变的基础层,是永恒不变的,我们不希望去干预它。
But I think this is also a departure in that Sailor historically has said, you know, Bitcoin is this absolutely immutable base layer that is unchanging, you know, perpetual, and something that, you know, we don't want to to to mess with.
船如果没坏,就别修它。
You know, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
但对我来说,这次他实际上是在偏离这一观点,暗示比特币可能会变得更强大。
But to me, this was actually a little bit of a departure from that saying that, you know, Bitcoin could become stronger.
你知道,这又是他常说的一句话:比特币更强、更快、更硬、更聪明等等,比如那些网络黄蜂之类的。
You know, that is, again, I guess, an adage of his saying stronger, you know, that Bitcoin is stronger, faster, harder, smarter, etcetera, you know, the the cyber hornets, etcetera.
但对我来说,这确实是一种转变。
But, yeah, to me, this was a departure.
所以皮埃尔,我想知道,你对这个怎么看?
So Pierre, I'm curious, you know, what was your read on this?
而且,你觉得未来在战略层面参与比特币开发领域,我们可能会看到什么样的活动?
And, you know, what kind of activities do you think we might see down the road as it relates to strategy getting involved in in the Bitcoin development space?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,我觉得即使在比特币之外,关于量子计算的讨论也明显增多了。
So I mean, do think that the amount of quantum conversation has ticked up a lot even outside of Bitcoin.
因此,已经出现了一些根本性的进展,可能引发长期的担忧。
So there have been fundamental advances that, could be caused for kind of long term concern.
再加上,有许多比特币的竞争对手已经实现了抗量子密码学的加固。
And then combine that with there's a lot of competitors to Bitcoin that have implemented already post quantum cryptography hardening.
因此,他们将其作为论点,声称自己的链比比特币更安全等等。
And so they use it as a talking point of their chain is more secure than Bitcoin etcetera.
所以我认为,Sailor的回应中让我印象深刻的是关于比特币的历史。
So I think that what stood out to me from Sailor's response was about Bitcoin's history.
我认为很有必要深入剖析这段历史,实际上,如果我们回顾这段历史,它完美地印证了Sailor在这里所提出的观点,特别是关于区块大小限制的部分。
And I think that it's really important to unpack what that history is and show I actually think that if we look at that history, it perfectly validates what Sailor is putting forward here, in particular with the block size limit.
很多年前,实际上现在已经超过十年了。
So many moons ago, ten years ago, actually it's now more than ten years ago.
我们不妨说是十二年、十三年前。
Let's say twelve, thirteen years ago.
我们都老了。
We're getting old.
我们头发稀疏,长出了白发。
We've got a receding hairline, gray hairs.
当时,比特币社区中有一部分人感到紧迫,他们认为我们必须提高区块大小限制,否则比特币的普及将停滞不前,因为更多人将无法使用它。
There was a sense of urgency created by a certain percentage of the Bitcoin community who said that we have to raise the block size limit, Otherwise, we're going to cause Bitcoin's adoption to grind to a halt because more people won't be able to adopt it.
这只是简单的数学问题,你需要提高区块大小限制。
It's just simple math that you need to increase the block size limit.
不这么做才是真正意义上的实验性路径,对吧?
That not doing so is actually the experimental path, right?
而保守的路径是提高区块大小限制,以保持比特币的采用经济不变。
And that the conservative path is to increase the block size limit to not change Bitcoin's adoption economics.
他们为为什么可以安全地提高区块大小限制,提出了非常合理且可信的理由,对吧?
They made a very rational plausible case for why you could safely increase the block size limit, right?
所以他们做了大量模拟,表明我们可以使用10兆字节的区块,也可以使用50兆字节的区块。
So they did lots of simulations showing, you know, we could do 10 megabyte blocks, we could do 50 megabyte blocks.
有些人甚至说我们可以使用100兆字节甚至一吉字节的区块。
Some people even said we could do 100 megabyte or one gigabyte blocks.
他们对此进行了大量尽职调查,同时强调了网络能力的进步。
They a lot of due diligence on this highlighting kind of the advances in networking capabilities as well.
所以虽然中本聪可能用的是DSL连接来编写比特币,但肯定不是拨号上网,应该是DSL。
So while Satoshi probably wrote Bitcoin with a DSL connection, probably not dial up, probably DSL.
他当时并不了解这些,而且他用的是奔腾四代处理器。
He didn't know about and he had a Pentium four.
他并不知道除了摩尔定律之外还会发生这么多技术进步,而摩尔定律只是说这些进步终将发生。
He didn't know about all the advances that would happen other than Moore's Law, which says all these advances will happen.
如今我们有能力提高区块大小限制,这本应是毫无争议的。
That today we have the capability to raise the block size limit, it should be uncontroversial.
于是他们获得了当时占90%算力的所有大型比特币矿工,这些矿工主要在中国,还拉拢了所有大型企业,对吧?
So they then got all of the 90% of the hash rate, all the big Bitcoin miners at the time they were in China, they got all of the big businesses, right?
纽约协议、巴里·西尔伯特、布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗,所有这些主流机构级玩家都参与了。
The New York agreement, Barry Silbert, Brian Armstrong, just all of kind of the blue chip institutional players.
他们都同意提高区块大小限制。
And they all agreed to increase the block size limit.
但结果是,区块大小限制并没有被提高。
And what happened is that the block size limit was not increased.
相反,我们采用了隔离见证软分叉,将区块大小限制转变为区块权重限制。
Instead, we had a SegWit soft fork that kind of transformed the block size limit into the block weight limit.
对此一直存在批评。
And there's been criticism of that.
也有非常可信的论点认为这种做法是不恰当的。
There's very credible arguments for why that was inappropriate as well.
前几天我其实正在做一些关于交易费用的数据分析。
And I was just doing some data analysis the other day actually on transaction fees.
比特币的交易费用从未如此之低,这意味着比特币具有巨大的额外容量和吞吐能力。
Bitcoin transaction fees have never been lower, meaning that Bitcoin has a tremendous amount of excess capacity throughput.
所以当人们说‘比特币每秒只能处理X笔交易’时,这没错,但从实证角度来看,当前对比特币交易的需求远低于XTPS,对吧?
So when people talk about, Oh, Bitcoin only does X transactions per second, that's true, but the demand for Bitcoin transactions currently from an empirical perspective is far less than XTPS, right?
因此,比特币社区没有匆忙提高区块大小限制是明智的。
So it was wise for the Bitcoin community to not rush into a block size limit increase.
他们选择通过软分叉引入SegWit,以支持闪电网络并解决交易可塑性问题,这是明智的。
It was wise for them to soft fork SegWit in, in order to enable Lightning and fix the transaction malleability problem.
他们通过软分叉引入Taproot,将加密算法从ECDSA升级为Schnorr,这也是明智的。
It was wise for them to soft fork Taproot in and improve the cryptography from ECDSA to Schnorr.
但有趣的是,虽然存在量子漏洞的可能性,但同时也已经有了量子防护措施。
Although interestingly, there's quantum vulnerabilities that might be there, but there's also quantum hardening that is there.
因此,我认为比特币历史上的每一次升级都是建立在吸取的经验教训之上,总体而言,在匆忙推进升级和拖延升级之间,一直保持着相当不错的平衡。
And so I think that each upgrade in Bitcoin's history is kind of built on lessons learned and that overall there's been a pretty good balance between rushing upgrades through versus taking too long to upgrade them.
所以我认为,这段历史实际上印证了Sailor在这里所说的关于量子问题我们应该如何应对的观点。
And so I think that the history is actually it validates what Sailor's saying here as to what we should do with quantum.
与此同时,他确实有道理去投资软件开发、协议研究或密码学研究,以持续推动进展,对吧?
At the same time, he's right to invest in the software development or the protocol research or the crypto research to keep pushing the ball down the field, right?
因为我可以坐在这里说,量子问题终将被解决。
Because I can sit here and say it's inevitable that quantum will be solved.
但我也可以举个例子说, FIFA国家队击败儿童队是必然的,但他们仍然必须上场进球,对吧?
But I could also say, for example, that it's inevitable that a FIFA national soccer team would beat a Pee Wee kids team at soccer, but they still have to go out on the field and score goals, right?
他们不能只是坐在板凳上,任由孩子们轻松得分。
They can't just sit on the benches and let the kids score goals on them.
所以我认为,这就像说:是的,这是一个可解决的问题,但同时,我们也必须去解决它,对吧?
So I think that it's like, yes, this is a solvable problem, but yes, we also have to solve it, right?
我们不能袖手旁观,以为代码会自己写出来,或者更准确地说,以为LLM的提示词会自己生成。
We can't just sit on our hands and pretend that the code will write itself, or I'm sorry, that the LLM prompts will write themselves.
我们仍然需要进行代码生成和问题解决。
We still have to code generate and problem solve.
许多密码学涉及非常高级的数学。
A lot of the cryptography is really advanced math.
而在人工智能研究的前沿,我听到的是,AI即将在高级数学方面变得极其出色。
And what I've been hearing at the cutting edge of AI research is that AI is about to get really, really good at advanced math.
当它能做到这一点时,我认为密码学这片空白领域所能实现的神奇应用,将远远超出今天人们的预期。
When it can do that, I think that the Pandora's box of magical things you can do with cryptography, that greenfield, is going to increase beyond what people can expect today.
因此,我们投入资源到这个领域非常好,因为它将带来极高的生产力。
And so it's great that we're going to invest resources into that because it's going to be extremely productive.
这不会像一场持续数十年的苦役,要写出五十万行代码,或者我们必须支付全球顶尖数学家来救我们于水火。
It's not going to be like a multi decade death march to write 500,000 lines of code or something like that, or that we have to pay the world's best mathematicians to come bail us out.
不,我认为这里有一条非常乐观的路径。
No, I think that there's a really optimistic path here.
悲观的路径是关于中本聪的币,对吧?
The pessimistic path is about Satoshi's coins, right?
所以,假设我们从现在开始修复比特币,但如何将这些币转移到更安全的合约中呢?
So, hey, let's say we fix Bitcoin going forward, but how do we move the coins to more secure contracts?
还是说它们会被量子计算机偷走?
Or do they get stolen by a quantum computer?
我不知道。
I don't know.
首先,我反对这种说法,认为这属于盗窃。
First of all, I push back on the idea that it would be theft.
历史上有大量普通法原则,可以追溯到数千年前,比如:如果你偶然发现一个装满黄金的宝箱,这黄金是归你所有吗?
There's lots of common law principles going back millennia about, Hey, if you stumble across a treasure chest full of gold, is it yours or not?
因为自古以来这种情况就一直存在,我认为从法律角度来看,用这个比喻来描述那些被量子破解的旧币(无论你如何称呼它——量子挖掘也好,其他术语也罢)是非常恰当的,不同司法管辖区会有不同的法律。
Because obviously this has been happening since the dawn of time, and I think that it's actually the correct metaphor from a legal perspective to apply to old coins that get quantum broken or whatever, however you want to what terminology you want to use, quantum mined, then different jurisdictions are going to have different laws.
所以在某些地方,如果你的量子计算机获得了比特币,这些比特币将归国家所有。
So in some places, if your quantum computer gets the Bitcoin, those Bitcoin belong to the state.
同样的道理也适用于你在后院发现一个宝箱的情况。
And same thing applies to you finding a treasure chest in your backyard.
你可能觉得这是你的财产,但其实不是,它属于国家。
You might think it's your property, it's not, belongs to the state.
他们怎么去执行这一点呢?
How are they going to enforce that?
我不知道。
I don't know.
在其他司法管辖区,你可以保留它。
Other jurisdictions, can keep it.
你拥有清晰的所有权。
You got clean title.
而在其他地方,你可能需要善意地努力寻找真正的所有者,并与他们各分一半,你保留50%。
And then in others, maybe you have to make a good faith effort to find who the correct owner is and to give them 50%, you keep 50%.
许多法律体系对于在这种情况下该如何处理,都有不同的理念和实践。
Lots of legal systems have had different philosophies and practices around what to do in that scenario.
所以我认为这个问题的关键不在于比特币协议层面。
So I think that that's where that question lies, not at the Bitcoin protocol level.
我们并不需要决定是否应该锁定或冻结比特币,除非有一种非常巧妙的解决方案,可以暂时锁定比特币但不是永久性的,对吧?
It's not on us to decide if we should lock the Bitcoin, freeze them, unless there's a really elegant solution where we can kind of lock the Bitcoin but not perpetually, right?
这样就给真正所有者将来前来认领留下了一丝机会,某种未来人工智能会发现的密码学奇迹。
So that there's kind of an opportunity for the correct person to come claim it later, some kind of cryptographic magic that a future AI will come up with.
但就目前而言,我认为这更多是一个法律问题,而不是协议问题。
But as it stands today, I think it's mostly a legal question, not really a protocol question.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我认为,我真正感兴趣的根本法律问题是:所有权和占有权之间的区别是什么?
And I think that the the underlying legal question I I find really interesting is what is the difference between ownership and possession?
而就比特币而言,如果你拥有那12个单词,你确实占有了这些比特币。
And when it comes to Bitcoin, if you have those 12 words, you do indeed possess the Bitcoin.
但你有法律上的所有权权利吗?
But do you have a legal right to ownership?
而且我认为,所有权是由国家赋予的。
And and I think something that is conferred by by the state.
归根结底,令人兴奋的是,比特币本身,尤其是中本聪的币以及未来的潜在估值,为量子计算研究提供了一个极具吸引力的奖励。
And at the end of the day too, it is, I think, exciting that, you know, Bitcoin itself, given Satoshi's coins and potential future valuations, is a pretty attractive bounty on quantum computing research.
因此,从这个角度看,它正在推动技术进步,或许会激励一些有抱负的年轻人,具体取决于他们的法律管辖区。
So in that way, it's, you know, driving forward technological advancement to perhaps some enterprising young minds depending on their their legal jurisdiction.
在回顾这次财报电话会时,我想讨论的最后一点是,我们已经谈到了策略内部发生的情况,以及策略之外量子计算带来的风险。
And I I think the the last piece that I wanna discuss when in reviewing this earnings call is, you know, we've talked about what's going on on inside of strategy, kind of the developments around quantum going on outside of strategy as a risk.
我认为另一个风险是,如今虽然并不特别显著,但未来可能增长的,是围绕策略的永续优先股所构建的产品。
And I think another risk that today, I don't think is particularly significant, but may grow is what products are being built on top of strategy's perpetual preferred equity.
这正是林·奥尔登在财报电话会上提出的问题。
And this is something that Lin Alden asked during the earnings call.
所以,我稍后会为我们播放那段录音。
So I'm gonna go ahead and play that clip for us shortly.
下一个问题,我想邀请来自林奥尔登投资策略的林奥尔登。
For the next question, I would like to invite Lin Alden from Lin Alden Investment Strategy.
感谢给予我这个机会。
Thank you for the opportunity.
鉴于STRC的受欢迎程度,我的问题聚焦于此。
Given the popularity of, STRC, my question is focused on that.
公司建立了美元储备,我认为这增强了这些产品的信心,并使其更具吸引力。
The company established that USD reserve, which I think shored up the confidence of the of these products and make them more attractive.
目前,根据网站显示,美元储备足以覆盖三十个月的优先股股息。
Right now, the USD reserve is, on the website, thirty months of coverage compared to the dividends of the preferreds.
其他优先股的股息是固定的。
The other preferreds are fixed dividends.
STRC的股息是可变的,这为总应付股息的覆盖月数带来了一定程度的不确定性。
STRC is a variable dividend, which introduces some degree of uncertainty around how many months of coverage there are for the total amount of, dividends payable.
对于你认为相对于股息覆盖月数而言,适当的最低储备水平应该是多少,你有什么看法吗?
Do you have any kind of views on what you think is an appropriate minimum reserve relative to months of dividend coverage?
或者,对于STRC的股息,你们是否有愿意支付的最高上限?
Or do you have a maximum that you'd be willing to pay on a dividend for STRC?
然后一个相关的问题是,我们看到市场上出现了一些早期的金融产品,试图利用STC来实现低波动性和高收益的目标。
And then a related question is, we are seeing some early financial products that are out in the market that are looking to potentially leverage STC, given the goal of low volatility and high yield.
你们是否在关注基于此产品的杠杆操作?因为如果市场出现问题,这可能会导致波动性激增?
Are monitoring the space for leverage built on top of that as it could contribute to spikes of volatility should there be an issue in the market?
你们会鼓励这种杠杆行为,还是会劝阻人们在这一日益流行的产品之上构建杠杆?
Would you encourage that kind of thing, or would you dissuade leverage from building on top of that increasingly kind of popular product?
谢谢。
Thank you.
我可以先回答,Lynn。
I can start, Lynn.
谢谢你的提问。
Thanks for the question.
首先,我们表示,我们的美元储备目标是覆盖两到三年的股息。
First, we said that we target two to three years of dividend coverage with our US dollar reserves.
所以我们不希望它低于两年。
So we wouldn't want it to go below two years.
我认为三年会偏高。
I think three years would be pretty high.
至于我们是否认为收益率上限存在,我们还处于早期阶段,正在努力了解每个月底究竟会发生什么。
And as far as whether we think there's a cap to the stretch rate, we're pretty early on and we're sort of trying to understand what happens every single month at the end of the month.
这也就是为什么我们制定了当前的指引,对吧?
And that's why we have our guidance that we have, right?
目前是11.25%,我们有可能将其提升到12%吗?
It's at 11 and a quarter, could we take it to 12 potentially?
但这将取决于我们如何将价格维持在100美元附近的一个狭窄区间内,同时也取决于整体利率的变化。
But it's going to be a function of how do we keep the price within a tight range right around that $100 and also a function of what happens to interest rates in general.
但目前我们并没有设定上限。
But I don't think we have a cap right now.
我们只能静观这一工具随着时间的推移如何表现。
We're just going to have to see how this instrument plays out over time.
所以这就是关于延期的整体回答。
So that's the answer on a stretch overall.
你的第二个问题是什么?提醒我一下。
And your second question, remind me.
第二个问题是,我们看到一些早期产品可能正试图为其他客户加杠杆。
The second question was around we're seeing kind of early products potentially looking to lever it up for other customers.
你认为这会带来问题吗?
Do you perceive issues in that?
你们有在监控吗?
Are you monitoring it?
你会鼓励还是劝阻这种行为?
Would you encourage or dissuade that type of activity?
我认为每当人们基于延期产品创建新产品时,我们已经看到一些产品,比如Buck,它们并不是杠杆产品,而是实际上将波动率降低到接近零。
I think anytime people create products on top of stretch, There's some products that we've seen like Buck that have been issued that are and they're not levered products, but they're actually reducing the volatility down to about zero.
而且它们展示的是每日累计收益,而不是每月累计收益。
And they're actually showing daily accruals as opposed to monthly accruals.
所以我认为这些都是积极的。
So I think those are positive.
我认为人们会构建杠杆产品的程度,首先,我们实际上无法阻止他们。
I think the extent people are going to build levered products, one, can't really we're not going to stop them.
我认为杠杆在一定程度上增加了对Stretch的流动性和兴趣。
And I think leverage adds liquidity, a certain extent interest in stretch.
我们会观察它随着时间的推移如何发展。
And we'll see how it plays out over time.
但我并不认为这一定是坏事。
But I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing.
感谢你的澄清。
Thank you for the clarifications.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我认为冯的回应很有意思,他说这是我们在关注的事情,但并不一定会阻止像STRC这样的产品使用杠杆。
So I think Fong's response was quite interesting saying, hey, that's something that we're keeping an eye on, but we're not necessarily going to discourage leverage on things like STRC.
他实际上对迄今为止发行的一些产品给予了积极评价,这些产品实际上降低了股息支付,并减少了那些希望获得更低波动性STRC类工具的人的波动性。
And he actually had positive things to say about some of the products that have been issued to date where they're actually reducing the dividend payment and reducing the volatility for people that want, you know, an even lower vol STRC like instrument.
但是,彼得,你对林恩的问题有什么看法吗?
But, Peter, did you have any takeaways from from Lynn's question?
我也想展望一下,想想这会走向何方?
And and I also would like to kinda look ahead and and think, you know, where will this go?
我们会看到STRC的代币化衍生品吗?
Are we gonna see tokenized, like, derivatives of STRC?
这类活动的风险、失败模式或潜在好处有哪些?
What are kind of the risks or failure modes or even benefits of this type of activity?
是的,绝对如此。
Yeah, absolutely.
如今,理论上,任何人都可以以STRC作为抵押进行借贷。
Already today, hypothetically, somebody can go out and borrow against STRC.
如果他们借贷的利率低于STRC的股息率,那么他们就能获得利差。
And if they're borrowing at an interest rate that's lower than the dividend rate for STRC, then they're capturing a spread.
所以,如今已经有一些资金在进行这种操作了,我不确定具体有多少,但我认为这种活动可能会吸引一些人的兴趣。
So already today I think that there's probably I don't know how many dollars are doing this right now, but I imagine that's the kind of activity that some people might find interesting.
不过进一步来看,我认为Lynn所指的是基于数字信贷的稳定币的发展。
Going further though, I think what Lynn's pointing to is the development of digital credit backed stablecoins.
如果我们看看今天的稳定币,比如Tether,它们由美国国债和一些其他资产组合支持,目前美国国债的收益率约为4.5%。
So if we look at stablecoins today, for example, Tether, they're backed by a combination of US Treasuries that pay 4.5%, I guess, based on where interest rates are today.
我知道它们还混合了比特币、黄金和其他资产作为补充抵押品。
And then I know that they have a mix of Bitcoin and gold and other collateral as kind of a top up on that.
但它们真正的主要收入来源是美国国债,这些国债为Tether创造了巨额现金流。
But really their main cash cow is the US Treasuries that generate a massive amount of cash flow for them for Tethers.
稳定币商业模式的成功之处,就在于捕捉了当前不支付任何收益的稳定币与它们所持资产之间产生的利差。
And that has been kind of the success of the stablecoin business model has been capturing that spread between the stablecoins that currently don't pay any yield.
这一点目前正在监管和立法过程中被广泛讨论。
That's being debated in the regulatory legislative process.
但由于稳定币本身不支付收益,却能获取其背后资产所产生的收益,这带来了非常可观的利润。
But because they're not paying any yield and they're capturing the yield from the asset they're backing the stablecoin with, that is very lucrative.
所以这个思想实验是,我认为一些团队正在将其作为项目推进,我们拭目以待:与其持有传统上能产生4.5%收益的实物信贷,不如稳定币发行方直接持有数字信贷?
So the thought experiment, and I think that what some teams are pursuing as a project and we'll see how that unfolds would be, okay, instead of holding analog old school credit that pays 4.5%, what if the stablecoin issuer actually held digital credit?
显然的风险是,如果比特币崩盘,STRC跌到70,同时出现稳定币赎回,而你的储备金不足以完全覆盖,那么你就陷入赤字,你的工具实际上破产了。
The risk obviously is what happens if Bitcoin crashes, STRC goes to 70, for example, and there's stablecoin redemptions, and then your reserve is not fully backing, and so now you're in a deficit and your vehicle is insolvent, basically.
因此,这变成了一个风险管理问题、概率问题,因为你也可以对Tether说同样的事:如果政府采取行动,查封经纪账户怎么办?
And so it becomes kind of a risk management question, a probabilities question, because you could say the same thing about, for example, with Tethers, you could say, Well, what if the government goes to Cantor and seizes the brokerage account?
那么稳定币就没有任何资产背书了。
And then the stablecoin's not backed by anything anymore.
所以你可以设想各种可能导致稳定币崩溃的情景,我认为这正是为什么稳定币不能和比特币归为同一类的原因。
So you can think of all sorts of different kinds of scenarios where a stablecoin breaks, and that I think is why stablecoins are not in the same bucket as Bitcoin.
它们是中心化的,对吧?
They're centralized, okay?
但它们和比特币的用途完全不同,因为很多人更愿意拥有一种稳定的电子类现金形式,对吧?
But they have a completely different use case than Bitcoin because, again, a lot of people would rather have a stable form of electronic quasi cash, right?
它本质上仍是一种债务工具。
It's still a debt instrument.
这是Tether开出的借据,但相比开设银行账户,尤其是美元账户,尤其是在海外,创建一个稳定币钱包要容易得多。
It's an IOU from Tethers, but it's certainly a lot easier to spin up a stablecoin wallet than to open a bank account, especially for US dollars, especially if you're abroad.
所以我认为稳定币的需求将持续存在。
So I think that there's going to be continued demand for stablecoins.
那么问题来了,发行方在多大程度上可以激进操作,而不会为自己、市场和稳定币发行方制造结构性问题?
And then the question is, okay, how aggressive can the issuer be before they're kind of creating structural problems for themselves and for the market and for the stablecoin issuers?
另一个问题是,如果稳定币发行方破产,不得不清算所有其持有的STRC,会发生什么?
The other thing would be that, so what happens if a stablecoin issuer goes bust and has to liquidate all their STRC, for example?
假设他们的存款规模增长到了100亿美元,突然之间却需要在市场上抛售100亿美元的STRC。
Let's imagine they grew their deposit base to be like $10,000,000,000 and suddenly they're having to sell $10,000,000,000 worth of STRC into the market.
你知道,我认为这种策略很可能会考虑进行回购,对吧?
You know, that's where I think that strategy would probably be thinking about doing a buyback, right?
如果STRC交易价格在70美元或50美元,他们可能还有其他手段可选,比如动用美元储备,或者出售比特币、衍生品等等。
If STRC is trading at $70 or $50 they might have other levers to pull, whether it's the dollar reserve or like selling Bitcoin or derivatives or whatever it is.
所以我认为,这种策略可能导致的系统性问题,正是央行需要面对的。
So I think that's kind of the systemic problem you could get to with the strategy central bank would be that.
我认为我们离这些产品真正出现还很遥远。
I think that we're so far away from there being these products out there.
比如,我不知道目前有任何稳定币是以STRC为抵押的。
Like, I don't know of any stablecoins that are currently backed by STRC.
即使它们真的出现了,也面临着巨大的挑战,那就是Tether所拥有的网络效应。
And then even when they do exist, they've got a big uphill challenge, which is the network effects that Tethers has.
Circle曾试图与Tether竞争,但并没有真正夺取大量市场份额。
Circle has tried to compete with Tether, and they haven't really done a material taking of the market share.
他们可能帮助扩大了市场,但我认为除了抵押品基础之外,还有其他挑战。
They might have helped grow the market share, but I think that there's other challenges other than just what's the collateral base.
我们可能会看到Tether自身宣布:我们要出售部分国债,转而购买数字信贷产品,以提高支撑Tether的资产组合的收益。
What we could see happen would be Tethers themselves saying, Hey, we're going to sell some of our treasuries and we're going to buy digital credit products in order to increase our yield for our portfolio of assets that are backing Tethers.
这种情况是有可能发生的,当然他们必须非常谨慎地处理这一过程。
That we could see happen, and obviously they would have to be very careful about how they go about doing that.
也许他们会等待其关联的21公司。
Maybe they wait for their affiliated twenty one Co.
推出类似的数字信贷产品,以便为他们的业务提供支持,并密切关注这一点。
To come out with similar digital credit products so that they're they're feeding their their business and and keep an eye out on that.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我做了一些研究,发现有一种叫做BUCK代币的稳定币,由STRC支持,收益率为7%。
I was doing a a little bit of research, and it looks like there is something called BUCK token that is a STRC backed stablecoin paying 7%.
没错。
True.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我认为林在这次通话中提到的就是这个。
I think that's what Lin was referring to in in this call.
所以,你知道的,只是看看流入的总金额,我觉得这简直微不足道。
So, you know, just kind of looking at the total flows into it, I think it's pretty much a drop in the bucket.
而且,你知道的,在当前这个时点,它绝对远未构成系统性风险。
And, you know, at at certain at at the current point in time, it's certainly not anywhere close to a systemic risk.
但我认为,这个思想实验确实很有价值,比如它会对波动性产生什么影响?
But I think the thought experiment certainly is valuable as, you know, what could this do to the volatility of stretch?
但正如你所说,他们已经增加了现金缓冲。
But to your point, they've raised this cash buffer.
他们已经表明了态度,嘿。
They've signaled that, hey.
我们愿意出售比特币,进行股票回购,回购永久优先股,以防范这些风险。
We are open to liquidating Bitcoin, doing stock buybacks, doing buybacks of the perpetual preferred equity, I think to head off those risks.
所以,我想今天这一集的主题可以说是比特币市场的压力测试。
So I guess the theme of today's episode has kind of been the Bitcoin market stress test.
而我认为,对我个人而言,这纯粹是
And I think that would be, again, just purely for me, like
一场有趣的压力测试,看看他们的管理层如何应对。
an entertaining stress test and just seeing how their management approaches that.
我想补充一点,你刚刚提醒了我:如果Stretch脱锚并跌至70美元左右,那Strandsheet甚至不需要提高收益率,因为隐含收益率会自动上升,对吧?
I wanna add one more point that you just reminded me of, which is that if Stretch were to de peg and go down to, like, $70, that means that Strandsheet doesn't even have to raise the yield because the implied yield increases, right?
因为它是基于100美元计算的,而不是70美元,所以你可以看到隐含收益率远高于当前水平,从而吸引大量投资者,他们很难拒绝如此高的回报。
Because it's multiplied on the $100 not on the $70 And so you could see the implied yield go far higher than it is today and really attract a lot of investors who could say no to that level of returns.
所以我认为,有很多内置机制具有反脆弱性,这个模式会持续下去。当然,他们仍在学习中,对吧?
So I think there's a lot of things that are built in that are anti fragile and that the model will continue to Obviously, they're still learning, right?
我的意思是,他们本季度增加了现金储备。
I mean, they added the cash reserve this quarter.
所以我认为他们会继续加强它,添加不同的功能,但已经很令人印象深刻了,他们所构建的东西。
And so I think they'll continue hardening it and adding different features, but already it's really impressive what they've built.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
而且我认为,展望下一个季度,该策略的信用评级将是我未来最关注的焦点,看看其他以比特币为抵押的信贷工具表现如何。
And and I think looking ahead to the next quarter, the strategy's credit rating, I think, is going to be the thing that I really want to be watching going forward and and seeing how other Bitcoin backed credit instruments perform.
我认为你提到的SADA与Strive的合作将会非常有趣。
I think SADA that you've mentioned with Strive is going to be very interesting.
我认为21公司与Cantor合作,作为债券市场核心的这一模式也值得关注。
And I think '21 is is another one to watch kind of working with Cantor kind of at the the core of of the bond market.
我认为这将是对比特币更广泛机构化、金融化的一个极其重要的信号。
I think is I think that's going to be a really, really huge signal for the broader, you know, institutionalization, financialization of Bitcoin.
所以,未来几个季度乃至几年里,有一些趋势值得期待。
So, yeah, trends to to look forward to, I think, over the next few quarters and and years.
我想,我们今天已经讨论了很多内容了,Pierre。
I guess, you know, I think we've covered a lot of ground here, Pierre.
你还有什么最后的想法吗?关于这次收益电话会议,我们有没有遗漏什么话题?
Do you have any final thoughts, anything we didn't discuss with regards to earnings call?
当然,未来《公司比特币》节目里还会继续讨论更多相关内容。
And and certainly, you know, there'll be more to discuss in future episodes of the the Bitcoin for Corporation show.
是的
Yeah.
当然
Of course.
别忘了订阅我们的节目。
And to, you know, hit subscribe.
明白吗?
Alright?
订阅《企业比特币》频道。
Subscribe to Bitcoin for Corporations.
你可以在 X 上关注我,账号是 BitcoinPierre。
You can follow me on x at BitcoinPierre.
另外提醒大家,拉斯维加斯即将举办一场企业比特币活动,作为策略世界大会的一部分。
And also to remind folks, there is a Bitcoin for Corporation event coming up in Las Vegas that is part of Strategy World.
所以如果你还没买票、订酒店或订机票,现在还来得及。
And so if you haven't bought your tickets, booked your hotel, booked your flight, there's still time.
但时间在流逝,因为活动就在两周后?
But the clock is ticking because it is in two weeks?
是的。
Yes.
二月在拉斯维加斯。
February in Las Vegas.
我认为去年的比特币企业大会内容非常精彩。
I think last year's Bitcoin for corporations conference, I thought there was just so much amazing content.
我认为今年也不会例外,毕竟在过去365天里,这个领域已经取得了显著增长。
And I think this year will be no different with, again, the growth in the space that we've seen over the last three hundred three hundred and sixty five days.
所以我们将在拉斯维加斯见到你,而且我非常期待
So we'll see you there in Las Vegas and, yeah, look forward to
。
it.
好的。
Yeah.
彼此彼此。
Likewise.
谢谢,斯宾塞。
Thanks, Spencer.
好的。
Alrighty.
谢谢,皮埃尔。
Thanks, Pierre.
很快再聊。
Talk to you soon.
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