使用BTC Inc的中本聪飞轮策略扩展比特币国库 | BFC节目第28期

好吧，最后一个有趣的问题。

Alright, one last fun question.

我们应该冻结中本聪的Pines吗？

Should we freeze Satoshi's Pines or not?

欢迎来到《企业比特币》节目。

Welcome to the Bitcoin for Corporations show.

我是您的主持人皮埃尔·罗夏，今天我们邀请到了来自Nakamoto的泰勒·埃文斯。

I'm your host Pierre Rochard, and today we're joined by Tyler Evans from Nakamoto.

Nakka，欢迎你，泰勒。

Nakka, welcome Tyler.

很高兴能和你在一起，皮埃尔。

Great to be here with you Pierre.

我们实际上在拉斯维加斯参加战略世界大会，将最佳的企业商业智能软件与最佳的货币协议——比特币结合起来。

So we're actually here in Las Vegas for the Strategy World Conference, combining the best business intelligence software with the best monetary protocol, Bitcoin.

没错，绝佳的组合。

That's right, great combo.

是的，当然。

Yeah, absolutely.

尤其是在人工智能的今天。

Especially in this day of AI.

所以我们今天要聊的内容非常多。

So we've got a ton of material to cover today.

你的背景、Nakamoto、UTXO管理、BTC Inc，当然还有比特币和宏观形势的整体情况。

Your background, Nakamoto, UTXO management, BTC Inc, and of course what the overall Bitcoin and macro picture is.

所以我努力让我们把所有这些内容都过一遍。

So I'm trying to get us through all that material.

所以。

So

我们开始吧。

let's get into it.

是的，我们先从Tyler的背景说起，你是如何接触到比特币的，以及你在行业中的发展历程。

Yeah, let's start with where Tyler comes from and came to Bitcoin and how your evolution has been in the industry.

所以，我是2013届的比特币信徒。

So, know, I'm a Bitcoiner class of 2013.

我常开玩笑说，如果比特币失败了，我可能现在根本找不到工作了。

And I like to joke that if Bitcoin doesn't work out, I'm probably unemployable at this point.

我的整个职业生涯都在从事比特币相关的工作。

I've spent my entire career working on Bitcoin.

我出生并成长在爱达荷州的一个小镇，离这里不远，但真正接触比特币是在大学读本科的时候。

Was born and raised in small town Idaho, little ways north of here, but got the Bitcoin bug really in college when I was doing my undergrad degree.

当时我正在学习化学工程。

I was studying chemical engineering at the time.

我原本打算去石油和天然气行业工作，但结果我的一位朋友大卫·贝利——他现在是我过去十三、十四年的商业伙伴——有别的打算。

I thought I was going to go work in oil and gas, but it turns out one of my buddies at the time, David Bailey, now my business partner of the last thirteen, fourteen years had other plans.

我们在大学里是朋友，当时还一起运营一个非营利组织，致力于美国的微型金融。

So we were studying, we're friends in college and we were actually running a nonprofit together working on microfinance in The US.

正是这段经历让我意识到我们的金融体系有多糟糕，以及在这个世界上最富有的国家里，还有多少人被金融服务所忽视。

And that's kind of really what opened my eyes to how broken our financial system is and how underserved even much of America in the wealthiest country in the world is in terms of financial services.

因此，加上我对新兴技术的兴趣，这为我接触比特币奠定了坚实的基础。

And so that plus my kind of interest in emerging technology is really what laid the fertile groundwork for me to get interested in the Bitcoin.

大学毕业后，我们共同创立了BTC Media，从第一天起就专注于比特币领域。

And so out of college, we started BTC Media together and have been running that, really focused on the Bitcoin space since day one.

这真是一段疯狂的旅程。

So it's been a wild, wild ride.

你见证了比特币这十多年来的所有变迁，依然对比特币充满热情，我真的很感激你能在这里。

You've been there for all of those same eons in Bitcoin and how much it's changed over the past decade, but really grateful to be here today and still to be passionate about Bitcoin.

是的，我也非常感谢你和大卫·贝利为推广比特币教育所做的一切，比如《比特币杂志》，这真是独一无二的媒体和出版物。

Yeah, well, I'm grateful for everything that you and David Bailey have done as well in terms of just getting the Bitcoin education out there because Bitcoin Magazine, I mean, it's a one of a kind operation and publication.

当然还有比特币大会，我还记得第一次在旧金山参加的时候。

Then of course the Bitcoin conference, I remember going to the first one in San Francisco.

对的。

Yep.

那是很久以前了，2017年。

Long time ago, 2017.

是的

Yeah.

我认为将比特币爱好者们聚集在一起线下交流非常重要，因为虽然在线交流很好，但归根结底，一切终究关乎人。

Bringing together Bitcoiners in person I think has been really important because obviously if you're just online, that's great, but at the end of the day it's all about humans.

我们正越来越多地看到，人工智能领域也是如此，一切终究关乎人。

We're seeing that increasingly with AI, that it's all about humans.

完全正确。

Totally.

所以面对面交流很好。

So it's good to meet in person.

当你刚开始创办BTC Media时，最初的愿景是什么？

Now when you started BTC Media, what was the vision?

当时你们的设想是做印刷杂志、网站，还是有一个更宏大的目标，是什么让你们每天早上充满激情地坚持建设？

Was it a print magazine, a website, or was there kind of the overarching, like what got you all up in the morning and excited to keep building?

说实话，让我们每天早上起床的，只是我们对比特币的热爱与热情。

You know, it was really, what got us up was just our love and passion for Bitcoin.

我们当时是刚毕业的新人，没有工作，也没有现实世界的经验。

And we were fresh new grads, no work, no real world experience.

所以我们绞尽脑汁思考，在比特币领域我们能做点什么？

And so we were just kind of racking our brains for what could we do in Bitcoin?

我们俩都不是程序员出身。

Neither of us were developers by trade.

于是我们想到，我们晚上和周末本来就在做的事情，就是向别人讲解比特币，回答他们关于挖矿是什么、比特币为什么有价值、为什么安全等问题。

And so we thought like the obvious thing, what we're already spending our nights and weekends doing was telling people about Bitcoin and answering their questions about what is mining and what makes Bitcoin valuable and why is this secure?

所以我们觉得，嘿，不如就把这个做下去。

And so we thought, hey, we should just take this.

我们最初创办了一份名为《为什么比特币？》的印刷杂志。

And we actually started with a print magazine called Why Bitcoin?

这份杂志现在已经不再印刷了。

That's no longer in print.

这其实是在《比特币杂志》出现之前的事，但它更像是一个教育指南。

This was actually pre Bitcoin magazine days, but it was like an educational guide.

我们还很自豪，因为我们为一种数字且转瞬即逝的货币制作了实体印刷杂志。

And we also were very proud of the fact that we made a print physical magazine for a digital ephemeral currency.

有二级市场吗？

Is there a secondary market real?

那些一定很值钱吧。

Those must be valuable though.

我们仓库里还留着一些。

We still have some in our warehouse.

哇。

Wow.

是的，我见过一些在eBay上交易，但那些是《为什么是比特币？》的初版。

Yeah, I've seen some trade hands on eBay, but those are the OG editions of Why Bitcoin?

那时候差不多也是Vitalik和Mihai推出《比特币杂志》的时候。

This was similar time with Vitalik and Mihai were launching Bitcoin Magazine.

所以我们实际上在2015年1月左右从Vitalik手里买下了它。

And so we were actually able to buy that from Vitalik in, I think in January 2015.

当我们接手比特币杂志的运营时，它已经有了更为悠久的技术历史和更强的品牌认知度。

It's when we took over the reins at Bitcoin Magazine, which had a much more storied kind of technical history and much better brand recognition.

因此，我们将所有精力都集中在比特币杂志上，不仅继续出版纸质杂志——我非常自豪我们一直坚持出版，更大力拓展数字平台、社交媒体、播客、研究等各个方面，以教育当时对比特币感兴趣却不知从何入手的新一代人群。

So we kind of consolidated all our efforts around Bitcoin Magazine, not just in the print magazine, which I'm really proud we keep publishing, but really leaning into digital and social media and podcasts and research and all the ways we can educate this new cohort of people who are interested in Bitcoin, but didn't know where to get started at the time.

我之前不知道你们是从维塔利克和米海手中收购了比特币杂志。

So I didn't know that y'all acquired Bitcoin Magazine from Vitalik and Mihai.

当然，你们认识维塔利克，他肯定忙着创办以太坊杂志吧。

Well, of course you know Vitalik, he must've been busy launching Ethereum magazine.

但不只是杂志。

But not just the magazine.

他当时花了很多时间开发以太坊。

He was spending a lot of time building Ethereum.

所以，

So it

对他来说，把比特币杂志交出来是个不错的时机。

was a good time for him to hand off Bitcoin Magazine.

对，这说得通。

Right, that makes sense.

我记得以前在比特币杂志上读过维塔利克写的文章。

And I remember reading material that Vitalik wrote in Bitcoin Magazine back in the day.

所以这简直像考古一样令人着迷。

And so it's fascinating, almost archeology at this point.

感觉像是几百年前的事，但实际上才仅仅十年前。

It feels like it's hundreds of years ago, but it's only a short ten years ago.

如果你去读那些旧的期数，就能看到后来演变为以太坊、稳定币和隐私币的线索。

And if you go and read those old episodes, I mean, can see the threads of what became Ethereum, what became stablecoins, what became privacy coins.

这些想法在早期的比特币理念中就已经存在，但当时没人知道整个行业会如何发展。

Like all these ideas were floating around in the early Bitcoin ethos, but no one knew kind of how the industry was going to evolve.

因此，档案里有一些非常有趣的历史片段。

And so there's some fascinating pieces of history in there, in the archives.

是的，绝对如此。

Yeah, absolutely.

在推出那个之后，你们在UTXO管理方面的推出时间线是怎样的？当时你们还参与了哪些其他活动？

And so after launching that, What's the timeline in terms of you launching UTXO management and what were some of the other activities that y'all were engaged in?

所以是的，我们在前五六年主要专注于打造这家媒体公司。

So yeah, we really focused on building out the media company for the first five or six years.

媒体和出版是一方面。

And media and publishing was one thing.

我认为当我们推出你提到的比特币大会系列时，我们真正找到了方向，意识到面对面交流的价值，以及为这个行业打造一个聚集点的重要性——当时这个行业已经开始真正成形，出现了公司、专业人士和商业活动。

I think we really kind of hit our stride when we launched the Bitcoin conference series that you mentioned and found how valuable that in person connection was and to really create a shelling point for the industry, which was starting to actually become an industry with companies and professionals and business getting done.

随着我们不断扩大这个大会系列，越来越多的投资者前来寻求建议，比如如何接触比特币，如何在他们的401(k)退休账户或信托中购买比特币，或者如何获得对这一行业的投资敞口。

And so as we kind of grew that conference series and we had a bunch of investors coming and asking for advice on even how to access Bitcoin or how to buy Bitcoin in their four zero one ks or their trust, or how to get exposure to this industry.

我们在2019年推出了UTXO管理公司。

We launched UTXO Management in 2019.

所以距离现在差不多快七年了，我们推出它的初衷，是为了回应当时来自家人、朋友以及日益增长的投资者群体的机构级兴趣——随着比特币越来越主流，我们希望帮助他们获得对这一资产类别的敞口，同时关键的是，帮助他们避开各种陷阱和像Mt. Gox、FTX这样的崩盘事件。

So coming up on almost seven years ago, really as a way to kind of take that investor institutional interest, mostly from our family and friends at the time, from a growing investor base as Bitcoin kind of became more and more mainstream and to help them get access to exposure in the asset class and critically try to keep them away from the minefields and the Mt.

帮助他们应对比特币领域不断变化的格局。

Goxes and the FTXs to help them navigate kind of this changing landscape in Bitcoin.

是的，这里有很多陷阱。

Yeah, there's been a lot of pitfalls.

回过头来看这个会议，你认为是什么因素让这个会议如此成功，以至于现在有成千上万的比特币爱好者从世界各地前来参加？

Rewinding on the conference, what do you attribute the success of the conference to where now there's thousands of Bitcoiners from around the world that come to these?

作为演讲者，我一直觉得你们的活动组织得完美无缺。

As a speaker, I've always thought that they're just perfectly executed.

你们让这一切看起来轻而易举，对吧？

Like y'all make it look easy, right?

整个活动制作精良，各个环节都顺利进行，毫无差错。

It's Thank a polished production and the things unfold without a hitch.

这是团队的功劳吗？

Is that the team?

是领导层的功劳吗？

Is that the leadership?

你觉得这个会议为什么会如此成功？

How do you think that the conference has been so successful?

嗯，我们必须给我们的团队大量赞誉，他们已经显著壮大了。

Well, gotta give a ton of credit to our team, which has grown significantly.

当我们刚开始办活动时，根本不知道该怎么做。

When we first got into events, we had no idea what we were doing.

我认为我们最早的一次活动是在密苏里州圣路易斯的一个大学校园举办的。

I think our very first one was at a college campus in St.

当时大约有一百人参加。

Louis, Missouri, for about a 100 people.

过程中经历了很多成长的阵痛。

There was a lot of growing pains.

我在第一届大会上负责检票。

I worked the door at the first conference.

但你知道，我认为一个会议最关键的，其实是你培养出的能量和社区氛围。

But as we, you know, I think the most critical thing for a conference is really kind of like the energy and the community you cultivate.

只要你聚集了真正志同道合、充满热情的人，大家对细节、餐饮排队和注册流程等问题都会非常包容。

Really, as long as you bring together the right people who are there for the right reasons and passionate about it, it's like people, I have a lot of grace for all the details and the concessions lines and the registration process.

因此，真正重要的是能够捕捉到这种社区精神——人们在这里找到联系，能够亲自见到那些他们在线上听过其声音的演讲者、播客主和商业领袖。

And so really being able to capture like that ethos of the community where people find connection, where they can meet these speakers, podcasters, business leaders that they've heard online in person.

这种效应年复一年地不断累积。

And that just has compounded year over year, over year, over year.

所以，我认为大卫和我们的团队每年都在努力提升标准，争取邀请更多重量级嘉宾，比如来自美国领导层、证交会或不同主权财富基金的领袖，不断突破界限，确保每次活动都保持新鲜感。

And so, I think David and our team really do a good job of trying to up the ante every year and shoot bigger in terms of what speakers, who can we get from the leadership of The United States or from the SEC or from different sovereign wealth funds, trying to up the ante and keep it fresh every single time.

这不仅是一项了不起的事业，能参与其中也是一段非常酷的经历。

And that's just been an amazing business and such a cool experience to be a part of.

是的，我也注意到很多会议都融入了艺术和文化元素。

Yeah, bringing in artwork and culture too has been something I've noticed a lot of the conferences.

此外，开源社区方面，你们做得很好，让开源群体也感受到自己是这场大会的一部分。

And then open source, I think you all have done a good job of getting the open source community to also feel like they fit into this conference.

当然，特朗普在选举前曾在这里演讲，我认为这从某种意义上说是一次重大转折，让我们看清了分歧在哪里、政治界限如何划分。

And of course, Donald Trump speaking there before the election, I think that that was a seismic shift from the perspective of, okay, where are the fault lines and where are the political lines being drawn?

我记得当时有很多传言，说卡玛拉可能也会来发言。

I remember there was lots of rumors about Kamala potentially And speaking a word.

回头看，当然，特朗普赢得了选举，这在很大程度上是因为比特币爱好者们对一位支持比特币的总统感到兴奋，而且我认为他确实兑现了承诺。

Didn't pan looking back on it, of course, Trump won the election, in no small part I think due to the energy of Bitcoiners being excited about having a pro Bitcoin president and actually, I think that he's delivered on the promises.

当然，还有更多工作要做，总会还有更多工作要做，但大卫·贝利和比特币大会在比特币监管环境的彻底变革中发挥了关键作用。

Now of course there's still more work to be done, there will always be more work to be done, but it is a complete sea change in the regulatory environment for Bitcoin that David Bailey and the Bitcoin conference just played such a key role in.

因此，看到这一点非常令人印象深刻。

So that has been very impressive to see.

谢谢。

Thank you.

这正是我们与华盛顿特区的比特币政策研究所合作时试图向政策制定者传达的观点。

And that's really a point we try to make to policymakers, like with the Bitcoin Policy Institute in DC that we're involved with.

但比特币社区中有一个非常强大的单一议题选民群体，他们首要关心的只有一件事。

But there's a very strong single issue voter base in the Bitcoin community that really only cares about one thing first and foremost.

因此，在这个狂热支持比特币的选民群体之外，可能只有伊丽莎白·沃伦等少数人持反比特币立场。

And so where there's rabid pro Bitcoin voter block, there's not the same outside of maybe Elizabeth Warren on the anti Bitcoin side.

因此，如果一个政客对这个问题持中立态度，那么他们就有巨大的机会去了解、学习比特币社区的诉求，并找到与他们立场一致的立场。

And so if a politician and you're kind of neutral on the issue, there's a huge opportunity for you to get educated and and understand what appeals to the Bitcoin community and to find a position that aligns with them.

作为候选人，如今你这么做几乎只有潜在的好处。

There's only almost upside today for you to do that as a candidate running for office.

是的。

Yeah.

好的，现在我想回到UTXO管理的话题上来。我们刚刚宣布UTXO管理与BTC Media将在Nakamoto旗下合并，虽然有些人对此感到意外，但其实从一开始我们就讨论过这件事。

Okay, so now I want to pivot back to UTXO management and we had this latest announcement that UTXO management and BTC Media are joining under the Nakamoto umbrella, which apparently some people were surprised about, but it's something that had been discussed from day zero.

我记得当时就觉得这种协同是显而易见的。

I remember that kind of being an obvious alignment.

那么，打造一家在公开市场上市的原生比特币公司的愿景是什么？

And so what's the vision for kind of building a Bitcoin native company in the public markets?

是的，Nakamoto刚刚完成了这项大型并购交易，将我们过去十年创立并发展的业务整合进Nakamoto，如今它已成为在纳斯达克上市的公众公司。

So yeah, with Nakamoto, finally finished this large M and A transaction to really consolidate the businesses we've founded and grown over the past decade into Nakamoto, now a publicly listed company on the NASDAQ.

我们的愿景是继续过去十年所做的工作，同时借助公开资本市场的支持，探索一种全新的方向——为比特币 treasury 公司或比特币资产负债表公司描绘出在比特币市场中的新蓝图。

And really our vision is to kind of continue the work we've been doing for the last decade, but with the support of the public capital markets and also to chart kind of a new course for, or a new vision for what a Bitcoin treasury company, a Bitcoin balance sheet company, could look like in Bitcoin markets.

我们对Strategy、Michael Saylor、Meta Planet以及所有公司所开创的愿景充满敬意。

We have a ton of respect to, strategy and Michael Saylor and Meta Planet and all the companies that have created their own vision of what they could look like.

我们真正想要做的是，将资产负债表类的投资部分与真正原生于比特币的运营业务相结合。

What we're really trying to do is, blend both the balance sheet kind of investment component with true Bitcoin native operating businesses.

我们看到这其中存在巨大的协同效应和机遇，不仅仅是购买比特币和筹集资金购买比特币，还要能够将这些资金部署到比特币生态系统内、拥有自身增长轨迹和财务潜力的企业中。

And we see there being so many synergies and opportunities that are created, not just by buying Bitcoin and raising capital to buy Bitcoin, but also to be able to deploy that capital into businesses that are aligned within the Bitcoin ecosystem, that all have their own growth trajectory and financial potential.

因此，UTXO和BTC公司

And so, UTXO and BTC Inc.

显然是我们在过去十年中一直参与的部分，但我认为我们的愿景甚至超越了这一点。

Are the obvious candidates being a part of what we've been involved in the past decade, but I think our vision even goes beyond that.

而且还有其他领域、其他类型的金融服务以及其他机会，我们看到了为比特币社区服务的可能性，通过像中本聪这样的上市公司，我们能够以更大规模更有效地开展这些业务。

And there's other sectors, other types of financial services, other types of opportunities we see to serve the Bitcoin community that we could do even more effectively at larger scale through a publicly listed company like Nakamoto.

所以我们的想法是，大家都认为比特币的价值将会上涨。

So the idea is that we all think Bitcoin's value is going to increase.

有些企业是运营型企业，比如会议业务，随着比特币价值上涨，会议规模也会扩大。

There are businesses that are operating businesses that, like with the conference, as Bitcoin's value increases, the conference grows.

我的意思是，这是我们实际观察到的现象。

I mean that's empirically what we've observed.

因此，我们的愿景是，在比特币资产负债表之上，还拥有这些与比特币高度相关的运营业务。

And so the vision is that, that on top of the Bitcoin balance sheet you've got these operating businesses that are really correlated with Bitcoin.

我们认为，这使我们对比特币的增长和超级比特币化产生了更大的杠杆效应。

That we think give us effectively even more leverage on the growth of Bitcoin and hyper Bitcoinization.

而且我

And I

如果你经营一家建筑公司，想把所有净利润都投入比特币并以此方式增长，这固然很好，但如果你经营的业务能与比特币的增长成比例扩张，那就是完全不同的模式了。

think it's great if you're running a construction company and you want to put all your net income into Bitcoin and grow it that way, but it's a whole another paradigm if you're running businesses that scale proportionally with the growth of Bitcoin.

比如托管机构、主经纪商、媒体公司或对冲基金，你知道，如果比特币价格从这里上涨十倍，不仅你的资产负债表价值会上升，你的运营业务的市场需求也会增长十倍，或者你从托管业务等产生的手续费收入也会与比特币价格成比例增长。

And so like a custodian or a prime broker or a media company or a hedge fund, things that, you know, if Bitcoin 10Xs from here in price, not only does the value rebalance sheet go up, but the market for your operating businesses also grows 10X or the fee income you can generate from your custody business, etcetera, grows proportionally with the price of Bitcoin.

因此，我们认为这将为我们带来对这个行业增长的最大杠杆效应，并在这些不同的运营公司之间创造大量协同效应。

And so we think that's what will give us kind of the most leverage on the growth of this industry and creates a ton of synergies within those different operating companies.

现在，显然我们目前正处于熊市。

Now, obviously it seems like we're in a bear market now.

我认为我们从历史高点下跌了大约50%。

I think we're down like 50% from the all time high.

相当残酷。

Pretty brutal.

我觉得从历史新高以来已经过去了大约一百四十天，这感觉像是永恒，市场情绪跌入谷底。

I think it was like one hundred and forty days since the all time high, which feels like an eternity in Sentiment is in the gutter.

人们又在说比特币已经死了。

People are saying Bitcoin's dead, again.

我并不真的这么看，但每个人都有权表达自己的观点。

I don't really see it that way, but everyone's entitled to their opinion.

显然，这影响了我们的策略，我们的MNAF从大约3.5压缩到了接近1，随后去年我们推出了一系列比特币资产负债表公司。

Obviously this has impacted strategy, their MNAF compressed from, I think it was at 3.5 to almost one at this And then we had a series of Bitcoin treasury companies launched last year.

显然，所有这些公司，包括中本聪，都面临着严峻的挑战。

Obviously conditions have been challenging for all of them, including Nakamoto.

从这段发展历程中，你有哪些收获？你们是如何调整自身定位，以度过熊市并在即将到来的牛市中蓬勃发展？

What are some of your takeaways from this evolution and positioning yourselves to survive the bear market and of course to thrive in the coming bull market?

是的，我的意思是，毫不夸张地说，整个行业这六个月过得非常痛苦。

Yeah, I mean, it's been, not to sugarcoat, it's been a very painful kind of six months for the entire industry.

我们看到，MNAF的压缩和全球范围内投资者情绪的低迷，尤其针对那些此前看似无限增长、股价却低于账面价值或MNAV的公司。

We've seen that compression in MNAS and investor sentiment really on a global basis for companies that were growing what felt like limitlessly at the time trading below their book value or below their MNAV.

虽然这很痛苦，但我认为这本不该出人意料。

While it's painful, I don't think it's something that should have been unexpected.

我认为，这种新型比特币资产负债表公司所经历的，正是SAILR和Strategy在FTX崩盘后的上一轮熊市中所经历的相同过程。

And I really think kind of what this new class of Bitcoin treasuries is going through is exactly the same thing that SAILR and Strategy went through in the previous bear market post FTX.

它们长期交易在账面价值以下。

They traded below book value for a long time.

它们头顶上悬着可转换债务。

They had convertible debt kind of hanging over their head.

我肯定那是一段艰难的岁月，但最终Strategy从这场熊市中变得更加强大。

I'm sure those were some painful years, but ultimately strategy emerged much stronger out of that bear market.

我认为它们在资本结构、发行的可转换债券、如何在熊市中仍实现增厚式增长等方面学到了许多宝贵的经验，而Sailor如今通过优先股发行正切实践行着这些经验。

I think they learned a lot of valuable lessons in terms of their cap structure, the convertible bonds that they were issuing, how to keep growing accretively, even in a bear market, which Sailor's really delivering on with the pref issuance today.

因此，这种在烈火中淬炼的过程，真正为它们过去两年的增长奠定了基础。

And so that kind of forging in the fire is really what set the stage for their growth over the past two years.

而目前最新型的比特币公司正在经历完全相同的情况。

And the newest class of Bitcoin companies going through the exact same thing right now.

我认为我们将会看到这个行业出现分化，我们已经看到一些将比特币列入资产负债表的公司开始逆转立场，出售部分比特币持仓，或降低杠杆。

I do think we'll see some dispersion in the industry and we've already seen a number of companies that put Bitcoin on the balance sheet start to reverse their position or sell down some of their Bitcoin holdings or de lever themselves.

也许投资者信心的丧失正在蔓延到实际运营者身上。

Maybe some loss of confidence from investors that's bleeding over into the actual operators.

但我认为，从这场危机中幸存下来的、定位良好的公司将变得更好。

But I think the companies that emerge out of this, the well positioned ones will be even better off.

我认为在这个过程中我们会失去一些公司，会出现一些并购和整合，这些对行业来说也是健康的。

And I think we'll lose some along the way and we'll have some M and A and some consolidation and those are also healthy for the industry as well.

是的，现在人们回顾过去六个月，却并没有真正思考行业如今的状况。

Yeah, now I think people are looking at the past six months and they're not really thinking about where the industry is today.

我们看看资本市场，目前除了比特币之外还有很多事情正在发生。

And we look at the capital markets, there's a lot of things going on outside of Bitcoin right now.

那么，你认为这种信心和情绪的下滑源自哪里？

So where do you attribute this fall in confidence and sentiment from?

是四年周期，还是其他因素真正推动了这一局面？

Is it the four year cycle or is it other factors that are really driving

我很难 pinpoint 具体是哪一个原因。

It's hard for me to put my finger on one thing.

这感觉像是许多相关但独立的因素在宏观层面上共同作用，影响着当前的比特币。

It really feels like a confluence of a lot of related but independent factors kind of on a macro scale that are affecting Bitcoin right now.

首先，显然是四年周期，尽管我们曾希望去年已经结束了这一循环——但今年比特币再次下跌，仿佛我们正在重演一遍。

One, obviously the four year cycle, as much as we wanted to hope that it was done as of last year with Bitcoin being down year It to date last feels like we're repeating it once again.

这导致了长期比特币持有者相当合理的抛售，一些拥有三到四年投资周期的人开始获利了结，再加上美国紧缩的货币环境，特别是近期两次政府停摆后，日本债券收益率飙升，以及套利交易的平仓。

So that caused a lot of probably justifiable selling from long term Bitcoin holders, some profit taking from people that have kind of had a three or four year time window on their Bitcoin investment who have been harvesting those gains, coupled with of tight monetary conditions in The US, particularly in the wake of the recent two government shutdowns and spiking bond yields in Japan and kind of some unwind of the carry trade.

此外，我们还看到资金转向实物黄金和白银等贵金属，以及各种宏观或地缘政治紧张局势，包括关税——这显然是推动比特币相关新闻的重要因素。

Also this rotation we've seen into real gold and silver, into precious metals, and all of the macro or geopolitical tension, including tariffs, which has been a big factor, I think, in driving the headlines around Bitcoin.

因此，正是这些因素的风暴共同压低了比特币，再加上关于量子计算对比特币构成风险的叙事，让一些投资者望而却步，而短期内又缺乏明确的增长催化剂。

And so it's this storm of all these factors kind of weighing on Bitcoin right now, as well as this narrative around quantum risk to Bitcoin, I think turning off some investors with no real catalyst for growth in the short term.

这是我们整个行业必须共同应对的问题。

And so something that we'll have to work through as an industry.

但我很好奇，你怎么看？

But I'd be curious, how do you

怎么看？

see it?

是的，我认为我们正在经历的不仅是人工智能的代际资本支出周期，而是一场文明级别的变革——在人类历史上，我们从未、也从未可能如此大规模地投资于人工智能数据中心、整个半导体供应链，包括内存、计算等各个方面。

Yeah, I think that we're going through not just a generational CapEx cycle with AI, but really like a civilizational one that I think at no point in human history have we or are we going to invest so much that we're going to put into not just AI data centers, All of the semiconductor supply chains, whether it's memory, compute, all of that.

以及能源供应链，从变压器一直到核电站。

And the energy supply chains, whether it's transformers or all the way to nuclear power plants.

涡轮叶片。

Turbine blades.

对，你很难找到比整个人工智能行业更资本密集的领域了。

Yeah, you can't think of something that's more capital intensive than this whole AI sector.

这意味着数万亿美元的投资。

And so that means trillions of dollars.

如果我们认为比特币会吸收过剩的流动性，那么我的观点是，由于这次历史性资本支出周期，目前根本不存在过剩流动性。

And if we think about Bitcoin as absorbing excess liquidity, my thesis is that right now because of this historic CapEx cycle, there's just no excess liquidity.

它正在吸收所有这些资本，再加上你提到的利率，从过去的0%上升到现在的4.5%。

It's absorbing all of that capital on top of you mentioned high interest rates relative to where we were at 0%, now we're at 4.5%.

这把房间里的氧气都吸干了。

That sucks the oxygen out of the room.

而且还有很大的不确定性，这种吸干氧气的状态会持续多久？

And then there's all this uncertainty about for how long does it suck the oxygen out

吗？

of room?

这是一个泡沫，还是不是？

Is it a bubble or is it not?

我认为它未来可能是个泡沫，但目前还不是。

I'm in the camp of like, it might be a bubble in the future, but right now it's not.

我回到德克萨斯后，看到数百亿美元正源源不断地投入各种项目中。

And we're seeing, I'm back in Texas, hundreds of billions of dollars being poured into projects.

规模惊人。

Incredible scale.

是的

Yeah.

所以这对比特币构成了逆风，但你知道，你得在市场上有足够的时间。

So it creates a headwind for Bitcoin, but as you know, it's like you got to have time in the market.

所以我们不知道比特币何时会迎来爆发式增长。

So we don't know when Bitcoin's going to a hockey stick.

我记得有一个指标说，如果你错过了比特币的这么多天回报，你就处于亏损状态。

I remember this metric of if you miss this many days of Bitcoin returns, you're at a loss.

而如果你抓住了这些天，你的收益就能达到10倍，对吧？

And if you have those days, then you're like 10X, right?

一年大概只有十四天左右。

It's like fourteen days a year or something.

是的，所以我提醒人们，如果你打算追逐短期趋势，最好清楚自己在做什么，否则你可能会措手不及。

Yeah, so that's where I caution people of like, if you're gonna chase short term trends you better know what you're doing because otherwise you're gonna be caught off sides.

但从微观层面来看，我认为我们面临的另一个挑战是比特币储备公司融资的可扩展性问题。

But kind of the micro level, I think the other challenge that we've seen is the scalability of financing for Bitcoin treasury companies.

我们看到Sailor Launch经历了巨大的增长，但他们仍在寻找方法来扩大分销渠道，提升其优先股的销售。

So we've seen Sailor Launch stretch that's had tremendous growth, but they're still trying to find ways to increase distribution, increase the sales of their preferreds.

他们希望实现更高水平的放大效应。

Think that they'd like to achieve a higher level of amplification.

因此，从中本聪的角度来看，你们在资产负债表融资方式上显然已经发生了变化，那么你如何看待中本聪及整个行业在资本结构上的未来演变？

And so from a Nakamoto perspective, obviously there's been changes in how you all finance your balance sheet, and so how do you see that evolving from a capital structure perspective for Nakamoto and for the wider sector?

如今的市场环境是，实际上，即使在去年年底我们就能看到，任何比特币金库的边际股权投资者几乎都已枯竭。

Well, you've got this market environment today where effectively, and we saw this happening even towards the end of last year, but the marginal equity investor for any Bitcoin treasury is pretty much tapped out.

目前没有人能运行ATM计划。

We've got no one being able to run an ATM program today.

你有一些案例研究，包括中本聪在内，它们通过大规模的PIPE股权融资吸引的并非最契合的长期投资者，而是一大批短期导向的套利者。

And you've got kind of some case studies, including probably Nakamoto of how raising these massive pipe equity rounds attracts not necessarily the most aligned long term investors, but a lot of kind of short term focused flippers essentially.

因此，我认为整个行业已经从这些经历中学到了很多教训。

And so I think the industry has learned a lot of lessons from them from there.

在过去几个月里，我们看到像MetaPlanet和Smarter Web Company这样的公司完成了一些有趣的融资，即使在当前环境

We've seen some interesting raises done by companies like MetaPlanet and Smarter Web Company over the past couple months, even in this

困难

tough

在这种环境下，他们通过出售期权、认股权证或某种组合证券来持续筹集股权资金。

environment where they're selling optionality, they're selling warrants, they're selling some sort of unit deal to be able to keep raising equity.

我认为这些方式很有趣，尽管它们在某种程度上提前实现了未来的股权销售。

And I think those are interesting, even though they kind of pull forward future equity sales.

在优先股发行方面，Strive和Mediplan是领头羊，这些产品似乎还为时过早下定论，但它们已经开始在可变利率方面展现出良好的市场契合度，找到了能稳定优先股价格的市场均衡利率。

The big one where strategy and really Strive and Mediplan are leading the ways on these preferred offerings, which seem like it's maybe too early to call it, but are starting to have great product market fit with the variable interest rates specifically that are kind of finding that market clearing rate to keep some stability in the prep prices.

因此，我们在Nakamoto密切关注这一点，并思考：作为一家上市公司，最大的优势在于拥有更多样化的资本市场的融资选择。

So that's something we're watching really closely at Nakamoto and think about how, that's the benefit of being a publicly listed company is you have so many more capital markets options available in terms of these financing structures.

我们确实希望扩大我们的资产负债表。

And we do want to grow our balance sheet here.

因此，关键在于根据当前市场承受能力调整融资方式和发行结构，以最大化现有股东的长期价值。

So it's just a matter of kind of adapting that raise and that offering to what the market will bear right now and what creates the most long term value for existing shareholders.

那么，当你考虑资产端时，如何评估投资运营企业与投资比特币或像我们所说的‘持有比特币’之间的机会？

And so then when you're thinking on the asset side, how do you evaluate opportunities of investing in operating businesses versus investing in Bitcoin or saving in Bitcoin as we'd like to put it?

就是这种权衡。

Kind of that trade off.

你会把门槛收益率设在哪里？

Where would you set the hurdle rate, for example?

你对运营企业的预期增长率是多少？

What are the growth rates that you would expect from operating businesses?

我认为，对于任何比特币公司来说，门槛收益率显然是比特币本身。

Well I think for any Bitcoin company, the hurdle rate is obviously Bitcoin.

是30%的复合年增长率吗？

Is that 30% CAGR?

是20%还是50%？

Is that 20%, 50 Yeah,

大概是25%到30%的复合年增长率。

maybe 25 to 30% CAGR.

不过，如果你能进入优先股市场或可转换债券市场，这会降低你的资本成本，因此这个计算会略有偏差。

That math is skewed a little bit though, if you can access the pref markets or the convertible bond markets, where it brings down your cost of capital.

因此，如果你以11%的利率发行优先股，而你的运营业务能以15%的回报率实现强劲增长，那么我认为这是一项可以合理化的投资，即使它可能达不到比特币的复合年增长率，但在你的整体融资结构中，尤其是当它能让你通过套利自身资本成本与股权回报之间的差额来积累更多比特币时。

And so if you're issuing a pref at 11% and your operating business can earn 15% with great growth potential, then that, you know, I think becomes an investment that you can justify, even though maybe it doesn't match the CAGR of Bitcoin, in your total financing stack, especially if it lets you accumulate more Bitcoin by kind of arbing your own cost of capital versus your return on equity there.

这打开了另一整套值得考虑的投资机会。

That opens up a whole another set of investment opportunities to look at.

那么，你如何看待UTXO管理未来的增长？

And so, how do you think about UTXO management's growth going forward?

我的意思是，在会议和《比特币杂志》这一侧，我们拥有公开的可见性，因为这些都是公开活动和公开出版物。

I mean, think on the conference and Bitcoin Magazine side, we have public visibility because these are public events, public publications.

但在UTXO管理这一块，你如何考虑向公开市场展示其增长潜力？

But on the UTXO management side, how do you think about providing visibility to public markets about the growth potential there?

我们大约一年前开始，UTXO就每月发布我们的回报和资产管理规模数据。

We started about a year ago with UTXO actually publishing our returns and our AUM data on a monthly basis.

因此，我们希望在这一领域为市场提供更多的透明度。

So we would like to give the market more transparency there.

我对UTXO真正感到兴奋的，不仅是我们的旗舰对冲基金——名为Two Ten KS Capital的基金——尽管比特币面临逆风，它在过去几年表现极为出色。

What I'm really excited about with UTXO, not just kind of our flagship hedge fund, which is called two ten ks Capital, which has had an amazing couple of years despite the headwinds in Bitcoin.

对于不了解的人，$2.10 ks，给他们介绍一下

For those who don't know, $2.10 ks, give them the

DL。

DL.

这个名字来源于210,000，这是比特币每四年减半周期中的区块数量。

The name comes from, it stands for 210,000, which is the number of Bitcoin blocks in each four year halving cycle.

所以这是对比特币四年周期的一种引用，two ten ks。

So it's a reference to the four year clock that Bitcoin runs on, two ten ks.

是的，完美。

Yeah, perfect.

我不知道中本聪是怎么算出比特币总量正好是2100万的。

I don't know how Satoshi made the math work to where then it was 21,000,000 Bitcoin.

也许那里有什么我还不了解的特性

Maybe there's a property there I'm not familiar

。

with.

大概吧。

Probably.

C++中的右移位运算符，我得深入讲讲这个了。

The right shift binary operator in C plus plus I'll have to go nerd out on that.

是的，你有计划推出其他基金，逐步发展成一个类似产品集合吗？

Yeah, and so do you envision launching other funds and kind

kinda growing kind of a pod shop?

of growing kind of a pod shop?

我们非常期待今年在UTXO推出一些新产品。

We are really excited to launch some new products this year at UTXO.

目前我们的旗舰对冲基金是主要产品，为合格投资者提供对比特币生态系统的多元化敞口。

So our flagship hedge fund is kind of the main product today and one that gives accredited or qualified investors diversified exposure to the Bitcoin ecosystem.

但我们看到了各种需求，我认为真正的机遇在于，作为Nakamoto的一部分、一家上市公司，我们可以全面了解一家公开上市的比特币公司所需的各种资产负债表功能，包括借贷、现金管理、比特币收益和托管设置。

But we see all these needs and really what I think the opportunity is, is for us now as a part of Nakamoto, as part of a publicly traded company, we can have visibility into all the different aspects of the balance sheet that a publicly listed Bitcoin company needs in terms of lending, terms of cash management, in terms of Bitcoin yield, in terms of custody setups.

因此，通过这项并购交易，我们看到了今年推出一系列新产品的巨大机会，这些产品首先服务于Nakamoto的利益，我们可以动用自身的资产负债表资本投入这些产品，同时满足整个市场的需求，具备可扩展性，希望能让许多其他比特币公司或投资者受益。

And so as a part of this M and A transaction, we really see the opportunity to launch a handful of new products this year that serve Nakamoto's kind of interests first and foremost, where we can deploy our own balance sheet capital into those products, but that serve a need in the entire market that will be scalable, that hopefully many, many other Bitcoin companies or Bitcoin investors can benefit from.

转向会议方面，我们听到有人说：以前我们有互联网会议，现在没有了。

Pivoting to the conference side, we've heard people say things like, we used to have internet conferences, now we don't have internet conferences.

所以最终我们也不会再有比特币会议了，因为每个人都会使用比特币，这就会变得无关紧要。

And so eventually we won't have Bitcoin conferences anymore because everyone will be using Bitcoin and it'll be like a non thing.

但实际上，互联网会议依然存在，只是不再这么称呼了。

But there actually are still internet conferences, they're just not called that.

比如Salesforce有自己的会议，AWS也有自己的会议，这些都是大型活动。

You've got like Salesforce has their conference, AWS has their conference, and these are huge events.

CES，是的。

CES, yeah.

CES，一场规模巨大的会议。

CES, massive conference.

是的，你是否看到这些活动在地理分布上有所扩展，或者除了大型旗舰会议之外，还出现了其他类型的新活动？

Yeah, so do you see kind of a geographic proliferation of events or kind of coming out with different kinds of events beyond just the big flagship conferences?

到目前为止，我们在地理范围上已经大幅扩展了。

So we really scaled geographically to date.

去年，我们在全球举办了四场比特币会议，分别在香港、阿布扎比、阿姆斯特丹和拉斯维加斯。

So last year we did four Bitcoin conferences all around the world, Hong Kong, Abu Dhabi, Amsterdam, and Las Vegas.

今年我们还会回到这四个国家。

And we'll be back in all four countries this year.

因此，地理上的扩展是一个全新的机会。

So geographically is a whole another opportunity.

我得告诉你，我们收到了来自更多国家的主动兴趣，他们希望在世界各地举办自己的比特币会议。

And I got to tell you, we have inbound interest from so many more countries of having their own Bitcoin conference all around the world.

因此，这里有一个巨大的市场等待我们去拓展。

And so there's a whole market to scale through there.

我认为我们主要的限制在于可扩展性，尤其是在新国家和新场地举办数千人规模活动的后勤问题。

I think our main constraint is just the scalability and especially the logistics of running multi thousand person events in new countries and new venues.

我们必须扩大团队来应对这一点。

We gotta scale up our team to address that.

我认为还有一个机会，虽然目前主要由行业本身在推动，但比特币领域如今已经高度专业化了。

I do think there's also an opportunity, one that's served more by the industry today, but there's so much specialization now in Bitcoin.

如今，整个格局和商业生态系统已经发展得非常庞大，有足够的内容可供讨论，足以举办专门围绕挖矿、闪电网络、人工智能、RIA和投资者、开发者社区以及技术峰会的会议。

The landscape and the business ecosystem has grown so much where there is enough content, enough to talk about, to have a dedicated conference around mining, around Lightning, around AI, around RIAs and investors, around the developer community, around technical summits.

因此，以我今天的观察来看，存在大量机会，每个领域都能吸引独特的受众。

And so there's so much opportunity from where I can see today that would all have a distinct draw.

但关键在于我们能举办多少场活动，以及如何在不削弱旗舰活动所创造的凝聚力的情况下做到这一点——这个旗舰活动每年将来自世界各地的人们聚集在一起，服务所有这些群体。

But it's just a matter of how many events we can execute on and how we can do that without kind of diluting the shelling point that's created by having a flagship event that serves all of those communities, that brings people from all over the world once a year to get together.

是什么促使这些国家主动来找你，说‘我们想请你们来举办一场会议’？

What's motivating these countries to come to you and say, Hey, we want to have you come do a conference here?

他们是想吸引比特币游客，还是想教育本地民众？

Is it they want Bitcoin tourists or they want to educate their local population?

他们的想法究竟是怎样的？

What's kind of their thought process?

有些是自下而上的，比如某个市场有强大的比特币社区，或者某家公司希望树立自己的品牌形象，主动希望与我们联合举办会议。

Some is kind of bottom up where there's a strong Bitcoin community or there's a company in some market that really wants to kind of plant their flag and co host a conference with us.

也有一些是自上而下的，尤其是当我们推出了在海湾合作委员会地区举办的中东会议或MENA会议之后。

Some is also top down, especially as we've launched our Middle East conference or our MENA conference in the GCC region.

在那里，这更多是文化和旅游驱动的，一些国家将比特币视为战略资产或其数字化转型旅程的一部分。

And there it's much more kind of culture and tourism driven where some of these countries see Bitcoin as a strategic asset or a part of their digital transformation journey.

他们已经推出了吸引初创企业、吸引资本的举措，而举办比特币会议能同时实现这些目标。

And they already have initiatives to attract startups, to attract capital and having a Bitcoin conference serves all of those purposes.

吸引旅游、吸引初创企业、吸引开发者，帮助他们在本地建立技术社区或金融社区。

Bring tourism, attract startups, attract developers, help them grow a technical community or a financial community locally.

看到比特币品牌价值的这种分散现象，真是令人着迷。

It's just fascinating to see kind of the dispersion on Bitcoin's brand value.

有些人一想到比特币，就联想到犯罪和负面事物，而另一些人则将其与未来、财富和成功联系在一起。

There's people who think of Bitcoin they associate it with criminality and negative things, and then other people associate it with like the future and wealth and success.

所以，你认为这种差异也具有地域性吗？

So it's almost, do you think that's geographic as well?

也许有一点，是的。

Maybe a little bit, yeah.

我认为很大一部分原因在于，举办这场会议非常有趣。

I think a lot of it, and it's really interesting host that conference.

我们在秋季举办欧洲会议，然后十二月紧接着在中东举办，可以直观地看到宏观层面上两种文化之间的鲜明对比：一种是专注于未来、投资增长和数字化转型的文化，另一种则是对新技术持谨慎态度、或高度注重监管、倾向于维持传统做法的文化。

We do our Europe conference in the fall and then The Middle East is right after it in December and see kind of the cultural dichotomy between, at a very macro level between the cultures that are really focused on the future and investing in growth and digital transformation and those that are very hesitant to embrace new technology or very regulatory focused that like things done the way they've always been done.

通过在全球巡回举办比特币会议，能近距离观察到这种现象。

To get a front row seat to that traveling around the world with the Bitcoin conference.

好的，现在我们把视角转向宏观环境。

Okay, so now pivoting kind of big picture to the macro environment.

我想我们之前提到过，这些逆风因素，你认为短期内会有逆转吗，还是认为未来一段时间内市场都会在区间内震荡？

I think that we touched on it earlier, but these headwinds, do you see a reversal coming in the near term or do you think that we're just going to be chopping sideways for the foreseeable future?

我认为我们可能还需要经历一段时间的震荡，以消化行业中的这种积压问题，处理一些清算和整合，尽管我们这次没有像上一轮熊市那样出现破产和诉讼。

I think we probably have some chopping to go to kind of work through this overhang on the industry, work through some of this unwinds consolidation, even though we don't have the bankruptcies and the lawsuits that we did in the last bear market.

因此，这让我对本次重组会更加迅速和干净抱有希望。

So that gives me hope that the restructuring efforts will be much faster and cleaner this time around.

未来前景中存在许多宏观催化剂，特别是当我们展望货币政策时，比如五月即将上任的新美联储主席，以及美国的中期选举。

There are a lot of kind of macro catalysts on the horizon, really looking ahead when you start to look at monetary policy, especially with the new Fed chair coming in May and obviously the midterms in The U.

美国。

S.

我们在美国金融体系中看到一些压力正在积累，这是由于利率长期维持在高位。

And some of the pressure we see building kind of in The U.

S.

S.

由于我们长期维持较高的利率，美国金融体系正面临一些压力。

Financial system with these elevator rates that we've had for a prolonged period of time.

因此，我认为流动性的适度放松将是一个很好的催化剂。

And so I think, some easing of liquidity, will be a great catalyst.

我认为这正是美国政府的职责所在。

And I think that's kind of a mandate throughout The U.

S.

S.

美国政府的使命是保持低利率、降低汽车贷款月供、振兴房地产市场、降低抵押贷款利率，而比特币也将从这种流动性增长中受益。

Administration, keep interest rates low, keep car payments low, revive the housing market, bring down mortgage rates, and that Bitcoin stands to benefit from that growth in liquidity as well.

我们还注意到许多几乎可以称为细微变化的现象，但我认为它们将产生重大影响，比如将比特币用作CME期货的抵押品。

And we've also noticed a lot of, almost, we could describe them as small changes, but I think they're going to have a big impact like using Bitcoin as collateral at CME for futures.

我们正在看到围绕iBit以及比特币金库公司的期权市场增长。

We're seeing the growth of options markets around iBit and of course around the Bitcoin treasury companies.

但你认为它们会在战略比特币储备上走得更远吗？

Do you foresee though them going even further with the strategic Bitcoin reserve?

我觉得这一直被放在一边，相对而言，稳定币和清晰度更受关注。

I think that that's been kind of, feels like it's been on the back burner relative to stable coins and clarity.

你觉得在他们理顺市场结构之后，比特币会迎来属于自己的高光时刻吗？

Do you think Bitcoin's going to get its day to shine after they get through the market structure?

要是我能预知未来就好了。

Wish I had a crystal ball.

我也希望我能知道。

I wish I knew.

据我所听到的，当前政府非常关注这些方面。

From what I'm hearing, the administration is is very focused on those pieces right now.

在监管结构方面，我们看到证交会和商品期货交易委员会取得了大量实质性的进展，消除了金融机构与比特币互动的所有障碍。

Some of the regulatory structure, we've seen a ton of very meaningful progress from the SEC, from the CFTC, kind of removing all those barriers for financial services, for banks to interact with Bitcoin.

一旦我们度过这一切，我们能否重新将注意力聚焦在比特币作为美国的战略资产上？

And so once we get through all of that, can we get attention back on Bitcoin as a strategic asset for The United States?

我们拭目以待，但我确实希望如此。

We'll see, but I certainly hope so.

说实话，今天其实并不是个好时机，因为我们已经看到伊丽莎白·沃伦表示，如果他们抄底买入比特币，这就相当于对比特币进行救助——但我认为，这实际上是政府在通过比特币获利，所以真正被救助的是政府。

It feels like today actually, would be not a good time because we already see Elizabeth Warren saying it would be a bailout for Bitcoin if they bought the dip, which I'm like, well, it would be a bailout for the government because then they would profit off the Bitcoin.

另一个问题是，在银行业方面，还存在一套陈旧的资本要求流程。

The other piece to it is that on the banking side, there's kind of this archaic capital requirements process.

其中一些规定似乎外包给了瑞士巴塞尔，这看起来不太像美国的做法。

Some of it seems like it's outsourced to Basel, Switzerland, which seems un American.

确实如此。

It really does.

是的，对吧？

Yeah, right?

我认为这也是一个即将到来的积极催化剂：未来将不得不进行一些谈判，以使比特币不处于有利地位，而是与市场价格保持一致。

I think that that's also a good positive catalyst coming up, that there's going to be some negotiations that are going to have to happen to bring Bitcoin, not into a favorable position, but just aligned with what's the price.

如果你能以90%的贷款价值比为房地产发放贷款，那么或许也可以为比特币设置20%的贷款价值比。

If you can originate a loan at 90% LTV for real estate, maybe you can do a 20% LTV for Bitcoin.

这将释放大量信贷进入比特币市场。

Would unlock a lot of credit into Bitcoin.

我们已经听过迈克尔·塞勒谈论过这个机会。

We've heard Saylor talk about the opportunity there.

完全正确。

Totally.

那么，你是否预计比特币国库公司会成为银行？还是这种说法被夸大了？

And so do you foresee the Bitcoin treasury companies becoming banks or is that kind of overblown as the narrative?

我认为现在还为时过早，但我认为这种想法并不现实，尤其是在比特币价格达到每枚数百万美元的世界里，这些比特币国库公司各自在市场中都将扮演重要角色，几乎可以说是围绕比特币构建的金融生态系统中的基石——它们可以作为国家储备比特币、数字黄金的准中央银行或金融机构，特别是在一个全球商业完全数字化、AI代理进行交易、机器间支付无处不在的时代。

I think it's early, but I don't think that's an unrealistic line of thinking, especially in a world which Bitcoin is millions of dollars a coin that each of these Bitcoin treasury companies in their own market is going to serve an important, you could almost say cornerstone piece of the financial ecosystem that can be built around Bitcoin as a quasi central bank or banking institution that is that nation state's reserve of Bitcoin, of digital gold, especially in an era of fully global commerce with AI agents transacting and machine to machine payments happening all around the world.

我有两个想法。

Two thoughts.

首先，当它们调整优先股的利率或股息率时，确实看起来像一家中央银行。

One, it certainly does seem like a central bank when they're adjusting interest rates or dividend rates on the preferreds.

第二，关于AI和代理的问题，人们显然会在这个背景下提到稳定币。

Two, on the point about AI and agents, obviously people bring up stablecoins in this context.

由于美国监管环境较为友好，我们所谓的加密行业（与比特币行业相区分）似乎正经历一场身份危机，比如Circle正在推出自己的区块链，Tether也在推出自己的区块链。

And it seems like there's, because of the regulatory friendliness in The US, there's a bit of an identity crisis in what we'll call the crypto industry, to distinguish it from the Bitcoin industry, with Circle's launching its own blockchain, Tether's launching its own blockchain.

这引发了关于原生代币是否能在主要成功项目选择不在其平台上构建、不泄露价值的情况下仍能积累价值的疑问。

It seems like the native tokens, it raises the question of are they going to be able to accrue value if the big success stories decide to not use them to build it on their platform, not leak value.

此外，如果监管机构态度友好，那么就削弱了拥有一个中立去中心化基础设施的必要性。

And on top of that, if the regulators are friendly, it kind of removes necessity to have a neutral decentralized rail.

无许可的。

Permissionless.

你认为这最终会对比特币构成不利影响吗？

Do you think that ends up working against Bitcoin?

我听过一些人说，我们不再需要比特币了，因为我们已经有了稳定币。

I've heard people say, oh well we don't need Bitcoin anymore, we've got stable coins.

我认为这种观点在今天确实非常普遍。

I do think that that narrative is very prevalent today.