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我认为政府并没有明确表示我们想要政权更迭。
I think the administration, they've not expressly said we want regime change.
哈梅内伊去世了。
Khamenei's dead.
据我看到的报道,他的儿子将接替他的位置。
Apparently, I've seen reporting that his son is going to be the re his replacement.
但你知道,经济的实权在谁手里?
But, you know, who's the power of the economy?
是伊斯兰革命卫队。
It's it's the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
这里的目的是什么?
What's the objective here?
目标只是解除他们的武装,确保他们无法对外投射力量吗?
Is the objective just to defang them to, like, make sure they can't project power?
好的。
Okay.
我就这么说吧。
I'll just say that.
还是说目标就是政权更迭?
Or is the objective here regime change?
我认为他可能不敢明说,因为政权更迭可能不只是从几千英尺高空投下炸弹。
I think he's probably hesitant to say that because regime change might involve not just dropping bombs from thousand feet.
它可能需要真正派兵登陆,而我真的不认为他们想这么做。
It might involve actually putting people on the ground, And I I I do not think they wanna do.
所以也许这种模糊性的一部分就在于,他们可能确实希望政权更迭。
So maybe I think that's probably part of the ambiguity is they probably want regime change.
但如果你说出来了,你就得跟进,因为一旦你说了却不去做。
But if you say it, you gotta kinda gotta follow through because once you say it, you don't do it.
你就失败了。
You failed.
欢迎回到比特币政策小时节目。
Back with another week of the Bitcoin Policy Hour.
今天我们有一位特别嘉宾。
We've got a special guest today.
我们有很多好话题,但最重要的是,我们那位才华横溢的实习生Danielian加入了播客。
We've got a bunch of good topics, but most importantly, our cracked intern, Danielian joining the podcast.
欢迎,Luke。
Welcome Luke.
和往常一样,Zack Shapiro和Ken Egan仍然是节目的常驻嘉宾。
And as usual, Zack Shapiro and Ken Egan are our usuals on the show.
我们试着稍微换点新花样。
Trying to switch it up a little bit.
我们即将深入探讨一项令人兴奋的新AI研究。
Got a new exciting AI research study that we're going to dig into.
所以,我们肯定会详细讨论这些内容。
So we'll, you know, definitely get into the details there.
我敢肯定,我们大多数听众实际上已经在他们的Twitter动态或X动态上看到过这项研究了,抱歉,我说的是X。
I'm sure most of our listeners have actually probably seen that on their Twitter feed, ex feed, I'm sorry.
今天其他的议题。
Other topics for the day.
显然,重大的地缘政治新闻、房间里的大象就是伊朗局势。
Obviously, the big sort of geopolitical news, the elephant in the room is is the Iran situation.
所以我们请到了一些专家来深入探讨这个问题。
So obviously, we've got got some experts here to dig into that.
我们也会稍微聊聊这可能对比特币意味着什么,因为我看到网上有一些有趣的分析,想听听这些家伙的看法。
We'll we'll talk a little bit about maybe what that means for Bitcoin as well because I saw some interesting analysis online, curious to what these guys think.
市场结构上有一些动态。
A little bit of movement on market structure.
肯,房间里的大象,跟我们说说伊朗现在是什么情况。
Ken, the elephant in the room, let us know kind of what's going on with Iran.
我知道大多数人应该都在关注这件事,但好吧,给我们梳理一下现状,如果你愿意的话,也可以解释一下为什么你认为比特币在过去几天上涨了。
You know, I imagine most people are kind of keeping up with it, but yeah, give us a lay of the land and then if you want to, maybe tell us why you think maybe Bitcoin has gone up over the past couple days.
我认为伊朗这场战争是没人想要的。
So I think Iran is this is the war that nobody wanted.
我甚至不认为白宫希望发生这场战争,但这确实是所有人都不希望看到的战争。
I'm not even convinced that the White House wanted it, but it's certainly the war that nobody wanted.
我认为即使你一直认为这是趁机而为,但民主党人对此也有抱怨。
I think even certainly you've been it's opportunistic but democrats are complaining about it.
即使在党外,也有人担心我们卷入的事务已经超出了我们的承受能力。
Even on in on the outside of the aisle there are concerns that this is we've been up more than we can chew.
再次强调,可以说这确实是所有人都不想要的战争。
Again, think it's fair to say that it's the one nobody actually wanted.
这并不意味着它不是该做的事,但毫无疑问,它并不被任何人期待。
That doesn't mean it's not the right thing to do but it certainly was not wanted.
我认为有很多因素在起作用。
I think there are a lot of factors.
每当像内塔尼亚胡总理提前两周出现时,情况总是很有趣,而显然,这与库珀前往以色列并遭遇这些袭击有关。
It's never, it's always an interesting look when like you know Prime Minister Netanyahu shows up two weeks ahead of time and then obviously this is happening with you know, where Cooper went Israel in these attacks.
我认为有两个主要问题,或者说有几个关键问题。
I think there are two, well there are couple primary issues.
我认为确实如此,而且这在历届政府中都是一致的。
I do think there is and this has been consistent throughout administrations.
尽管承诺和热情程度有所不同,但美国的政策一直是伊朗不得拥有核武器。
There has been with varying degrees of sort of commitment and enthusiasm, it's been US policy that Iran shall not have nuclear weapon.
不管你信不信,这确实是美国的政策,过去我们多次站在军事行动的边缘。
It's unquibble whether you believe it or not, but it has been the policy of The United States and we've been on the precipice of military action many many times in the past.
特朗普已经两次付诸行动,但在过去十到十五年里,我们多次濒临危机,人们甚至真的在等待,比如‘今晚或明天就要发生了’之类的。
Trump followed through with it, now twice, but we've been on the we've been at the brink over the past ten, fifteen years several times where like people were like literally waiting for, oh, it's it's happening tonight or tomorrow or whatever.
但最终并没有发生。
Didn't happen.
但这次感觉不同,确实也不同,因为我们已经付诸行动了,但过去我们多次站在悬崖边缘。
But we we this is not it it's it feels like it feels different and it is different because we we've followed through, but we we've been at the precipice many times before.
我认为其中一个主要问题是核武器问题。
I think one of the primary this is a nuclear weapon issue.
我认为在政策层面,有两个主要动因。
I think there on the policy side, are two primary drivers.
伊朗的弹道导弹计划。
There's Iran's ballistic missile program.
即使是他们的框架,你知道,那个联合协议叫什么来着?
Even their framework, you know, the joint what was it called?
奥巴马总统与他们达成的用于谈判和限制与核查的框架,从未明确包含弹道导弹能力。如果你看看,伊朗空军没有采取任何行动,海军也没有任何动作。
The framework that President Obama established with them for negotiations and for winding and for inspections, That never expressly included ballistic missile capability and if you see, you know, the Iranian Air Force hasn't done anything, the Navy hasn't done anything.
除了其网络之外,伊朗直接投射军事力量的手段就是弹道导弹。
Iran, beyond its networks, Iran's direct way to project power mechanically is through ballistic missiles.
这显然是以色列的问题,我认为现在也是许多阿拉伯邻国的明显问题。
Clearly issue for Israel and I think now it's clearly an issue for a lot of the Arab neighbors as well.
所以我认为,解除这一能力无疑是以色列的首要任务。
So I think defanging, removing that capability has been certainly Israel's priority.
我认为这很可能也是地区的优先事项,同时也是伊朗维护自身影响力的主要手段。
I think it's probably it has been a regional priority and it has been Iran's primary means of protecting power.
其次,我认为这一点——虽然我不认为这是特朗普总统现在选择采取军事行动的根本原因——但还涉及地缘政治因素。
Secondly, and I think this is and I don't think this is an underlying cause for why President Trump opted to conduct military action now, but there is the geopolitical piece.
伊朗一直是所谓的金砖国家联盟中的关键一环。
Iran has been a lynchpin in we'll call it the BRICS alliance.
他们一直是,你知道的,我们向中国出口石油的主要来源。
They've been they are, you know, our primary export of oil to China.
他们是让美国在中东某种程度上被牵制和占据的主要手段。
They are a primary means of keeping United States sort of pinned down and occupied in The Middle East.
随着委内瑞拉的马杜罗被推翻,这确实在某种程度上倾斜了天平——这么说吧,这就像在特朗普总统准备前往中国会见习近平主席,讨论包括资源、稀土、磁铁等其他议题时,在天平上又加了几块砝码。
And following the removal of Maduro in Venezuela, this does sort of tilt this this provides well, put it this way, it sort of adds a few stones on the scale as president Trump gets ready to go to China to see president Xi talk about other things, among other things like, you know, that's resources, rare earths, magnets.
这确实引入了不同的考量因素,今天外交关系委员会有一篇有趣的文章提到,这是你第一次看到中国领导层表现出些许困惑,因为我认为他们没料到此事此刻发生,而且他们原本有一套精心策划、行之有效的与特朗普谈判的计划,你知道的,胡萝卜加大棒,主要的大棒是稀土,但还有其他手段。
This does add a different calculus and there's been an interesting article today in the Council of Formulations about this is the first time that you've seen a little like confusion out of Chinese leadership because I think they weren't expecting this to happen right now and I think they've had a very calculated, effective plan for how to negotiate with Trump, you know, carrots and sticks, the primary stick being rare earths but there are other things as well.
这个,你知道,突然间,石油成了美国的大棒,我们刚刚打乱了中国精心策划的与特朗普总统谈判的布局。
This, you know, this all of a sudden, you know, oil is a stick for The United States and we've just we've just upset the apple cart in terms of China's very carefully plotted ways negotiating with with president Trump.
我明白,我不认为那是原因所在。
I get I don't think that was the reason why.
我认为,伊朗作为一个更广泛的问题,对于那种与中国竞争的战略思维一直至关重要。
I think I think Iran as as so it's a larger issue has been essential to that sort of thinking on competition piece with China.
我不认为这促使了本周或上周的袭击,但我确实认为,这一直是货架上的一项因素,使得袭击变得可行。
I don't think it motivated the strikes this week or last week, but I do think it is it's been it's it's been one of those things on the shelf that makes strikes palpable.
如果我们能够改变伊朗政权,这对中国的战略劣势将是一个重大打击,从而带来谈判优势。
If we are able to change the Iranian regime, this disadvantage this this is a large strategic setback for China and it provides a thus negotiating advantage.
所以我认为,这并不是一个推动因素,但确实可以作为货架上的正当理由。
So I think I I don't think it was a motivating factor but certainly on the shelf it's justification.
我认为,主要问题在于弹道导弹,以及在我们仍认为有能力做到的情况下,解除它们的威胁,而不至于对我们自己和邻国造成过大损害。
I think primarily it's about ballistic missiles and defanging them while we still perceive we can without, you know, too much damage to ourselves and to neighboring countries.
好的,这很有帮助。
Okay, that's helpful.
是的,我想更深入探讨一下这一点的地缘政治层面。
Yeah, I think the thing I wanna dig into a little bit more here is the geopolitical component of that.
扎克,我记得我们以前和派恩斯在播客里讨论过这个,关于中等强国的概念,对吧?
And Zack, I think we used to talk, you know, with Pines about this on the podcast, but this sort of sense of the middle powers, right?
而且,在中东正发生着一种势力范围的操作。
And that there's this, sphere of influence sort of operation happening in The Middle East.
当然,还有更大的地缘政治因素,但也存在一种情报竞赛、比特币竞赛,对吧?
And obviously there's the larger geopolitical component, but there's also a kind of intelligence race, Bitcoin race, right?
这一点我们已经讨论一段时间了。
That's something we've been talking about for a while.
肯,我先回过头来问你,然后我们再找扎克。
Ken, I'm going go back to you and then we'll go to Zack.
这些因素在多大程度上起作用?
To what extent do those factors play in?
我们去年是不是在瞎猜,还是说这确实是当前局势中一个真实的组成部分?
Is that something we were sort of talking out of our ass about, you know, last year or is that, you know, like a real kind of component of what's going on right now?
是的。
Yeah.
不,我认为这绝对是真实存在的因素。
No, I think it absolutely is a real component.
对吧?
Right?
比如,他们在中东的立场是美国主导的:安全方面靠以色列,经济方面靠海湾国家。
Like, they're sort of American aligned access in The Middle East is sort of Israel on the security front and the Gulf States on the economic front.
对吧?
Right?
我们希望他们承担大量我们的计算任务。
We want them to do a lot of our inference.
我们希望他们使用美国的硬件。
We want them to use US hardware.
而且,总得有人烧掉石油来为GPU供电,从而支撑未来的经济。
And, you know, someone's gonna need to sort of burn the oil to power the the GPUs to power the economy of the future.
伊朗如果拥有核武器并能向以色列和海湾国家发射弹道导弹,将构成一种不稳定的威胁。
And Iran potentially having nuclear weapons and the ability to shoot ballistic missiles at both Israel and the Gulf States is a destabilizing threat.
相反,如果我们能见到一个更亲西方、更贴近资本主义和美国利益的伊朗,这将彻底改变局面,我认为这对美国有利,也对21世纪的地缘政治和经济至关重要。
And, you know, conversely, if we were to have something more like a Persian Iran, more sort of aligned with Western capitalism and US interests, that that really changes the equation in a way that I think is beneficial to The United States and sort of important to the geopolitics and economics of the twenty first century.
肯,你对此有什么补充吗?
Ken, do you have any kind of color to add there?
你觉得他对此的看法对吗?
Do you think he's right about that?
是的。
Yeah.
百分之百对。
A 100%.
我认为另一个重要的启示是,许多国家确实存在关于结盟以及一些国家倾向于中国以制衡美国的讨论。
And I I think one of the major takeaways also is that, you know, a lot of countries are you know, there's been discussion about, you know, alliances and people siding with China to counterbalance The United States.
这已经是我们在短短几周内攻击的第二个中国盟友了,而中国却没有任何行动来保护这些盟友。
This is the second Chinese ally that we've attacked in, you know, literally a matter of weeks and China hasn't done anything to protect these allies.
我不认为我们应该去挑衅中国,迫使其保护这些盟友,但观察家们显然注意到,两个与中国关系密切的国家元首——习近平主席本人还与伊朗签署了合作协议,他亲自签的——现在都出了问题。
I don't think we should be in a place of provoking China to do something to protect these allies but nonetheless it's certainly not lost on observers that two heads of state that were closely aligned with China, I mean President Xi himself signed the partnership agreement with the Iranians, he signed it.
但你知道,阿塔拉·哈梅内伊已经去世,马杜罗总统现在被关押在离扎克家不远的纽约监狱里。
But he, you know, Atalah Khamenei is now dead, President Maduro is in a prison not far from Zack's house in New York City.
你看到这显然是一种趋势:成为中国的铁杆朋友并不能保证你绝对安全。
You see it's certainly a trend that being China's very good friend doesn't guarantee you safety at all.
它或许能保证你其他东西,比如贸易,你知道的,那是钱,不管怎样,但绝对不能保证持久性。
It maybe guarantees you other things, trade, you know, that's money, whatever, but it certainly doesn't guarantee longevity.
而这恰恰摧毁了整个金砖国家叙事——即建立平行体系来对抗和制衡美国。
And that is a that sort of destroys the whole kind of BRICS narrative about building parallel systems counterbinding The United States, counterbalancing The United States.
具体会是什么样子,谁知道呢?
And what that looks like, who knows?
我的意思是,中国肯定会采取某种行动。
I mean China's going to do something.
我不是在暗示他们会采取军事行动,但他们明白这对他们来说是个挫折,他们会采取某种措施来回应。
I don't think I'm not suggesting they're going to do anything militarily but they understand this is a setback for them and they're going to do something to respond.
我们拭目以待吧。
We'll see what that is.
希望他们采取的行动,呃,再说一遍,我不认为他们会采取军事行动,因为我相信他们不会,但他们一定会做点什么。
Hopefully it's, know, again I don't want to suggest that they're going to do anything militarily because I don't think they will, but they're going to something.
不一定是军事行动,也可能是别的,因为他们必须做点什么。
It doesn't have to be militarily, could be something else Because they have to.
他们必须这么做。
They have to.
他们非得做点什么不可。
They simply have to do something.
所以,当特朗普总统几周后访问中国会见习近平主席时,这将可能是一次代际性的重启,或至少是把握关键机遇的重要时刻——要么达成共识,要么错失这一机会,而后者无疑将是不幸的。
So it'll be really interesting when President Trump goes to see President Xi in China in a few weeks that that's gonna be a could be, you know, sort of a generational reset or certainly a generation important opportunity to either, you know, come to an understanding or or to miss the opportunity to come to an understanding, which of course would be unfortunate.
是的。
Yeah.
我也很好奇,肯,回到你刚才说的,伊朗的袭击行动,我想很多人对他们的目标选择感到意外,或许这反映了普通外界的看法。
I'm curious also, Ken, going back to you here, the attacks from Iran weren't, you know I think a lot of people were sort of surprised as to where they chose for their destinations and maybe that's the sort of normie outsider view of it.
但你有没有对他们的攻击目标集中在海湾国家,且袭击确实落在那里感到惊讶?
But but were you surprised at all that they were going after the more Gulf States and that those attacks landed there?
没有。
No.
我觉得这其实是个合理的问题。
I I think there's been mean, it's a fair question.
为什么他们要把那些一开始就很明确表示不想卷入的国家牵扯进来?
Like, why do they drag in countries that's that were very, clear about not wanting to be involved to begin with.
但他们的目的是施压美国,让其停止行动。
But the idea is to put pressure on The United States to stop.
对他们来说,这是一场耐心等待的游戏。
This is for them this is a waiting game.
他们能承受多少打击,同时还能在国内维持稳定?
This is how many punches can they take while, you know, keeping things together domestically.
所以我认为他们需要加大痛苦,因为他们的评估是,在利雅得、迪拜和该地区其他地方制造痛苦,是向华盛顿施压的关键。
So I'm not I think they need to increase pain because I think their assessment is that creating pain in Riyadh and Dubai and elsewhere in the region is key to creating pressure back in Washington.
当然,这也是为了平衡他们可能认为以色列方面持强烈支持政权更迭的立场。
Certainly to counterbalance, you know, what they probably perceive is probably a very pro regime change perspective from in out of Israel.
他们需要海湾国家成为制约特朗普的力量。
They they need the Gulf State to be a break on Trump.
说不,不,不,我们必须停止这一切。
Say no no no, we need to stop this.
我们需要,是的。
We need yeah.
来吧。
Come on.
做个交易吧。
Make a deal.
让我们在事情失控之前停止吧。
Let's let's let's stop this before it gets out of hand.
我认为这是伊朗方面的算计。
I think that that's the calculation of Iranian.
只是为了制造压力,以达到
It's just to is to create pressure to have
不过我觉得这是个糟糕的策略。
this think it's a bad strategy though.
对吧?
Right?
我觉得这更讨好政府。
Like it's I think it's more endeared to the administration.
同意。
Agree.
他们没料到沙特会调动空军。
I don't think they anticipated the Saudi mobilizing the air force.
他们判断错了。
They miscalculated.
我觉得这是他们的算计。
I think that's their calculation.
对吧?
Right?
迪拜能承受多大的压力?
How much pain can Dubai take?
有多少网红被困在迪拜之前,事情必须有所行动?
How many influencers can get stuck in Dubai before something has to happen?
我认为这一直是他们的想法和过去的做法,但你知道,过去压力是那种……阿拉伯首都要么沉默,要么提供有限支持,而现在情况大不相同了。
I think that's been their idea, their thinking in the past but you know, again it's a lot different when in the past, the pressure was sort of, you know, there was no there was sort of silence or test support from Arab capitals.
你知道,他们站出来表示:我们不支持这一行为。
You know, they stood up and they said, we are we do not support this.
我们不属于这一方。
We are not part of this.
我们退出了。
We're out of this.
第一天,他们就全都遭到了袭击。
And the first day, they all got attacked.
你知道,他们有民族自豪感,每个人都有民族自豪感。
You know, there is, you know, they had national pride, everybody has national pride.
这清楚地表明,伊朗愿意因为一些他们根本没有做过的事而对他们下手。
And it certainly shows that Iran is willing to touch them for things they didn't do.
如果你想生存下去,这种做法显然不是寻求重启关系的好方式。
It's not a great way to sort of look for a reset if you're looking to survive.
有意思。
Interesting.
好的,肯,你对此有什么看法?
Okay, Ken, what's your outlook here?
显然,今天早上市场大幅上涨。
Obviously market ticked up pretty aggressively this morning.
你认为他们是在有效谈判,还是觉得这会是一个持久的局面?
Do you believe that they're kind of negotiating effectively or do you think this is a drawn out situation?
我不知道。
I don't know.
这要看情况。
It depends.
我认为政府并没有明确表示希望政权更迭。
I think the administration, they've not expressly said we want regime change.
你知道,他们到底需要做出什么决定?
You know, what is that really what did they have to decide?
你先定义一下什么是政权更迭?
Just you know define what is regime change?
哈梅内伊死了?
Khamenei is dead?
我看到有报道说他的儿子将接替他,但你知道,掌握经济实权的是伊斯兰革命卫队。
Apparently I've seen reporting that his son is going to be his replacement, but you know who's the power of the economy, it's the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
所以你必须明确他们的目标,这也是民主党人的一项批评,对吧?
So you have to define if they want, they have to define and this is one of the complaints from Democrats, right?
你的目标到底是什么?
Like what's your goal here?
甚至一些共和党人也这么问。
Even from some Republicans.
这里的真正目标是什么?
What's the objective here?
目标仅仅是解除他们的武装吗?
Is the objective just to defang them?
只是为了确保他们无法投射力量?
To like make sure they can't project power?
好的。
Okay.
我就这么说吧。
I'll just say that.
还是说目标是政权更迭?
Or is the objective here regime change?
我认为他可能不敢这么说,因为政权更迭可能不仅仅是从一千英尺高空投下炸弹,还可能涉及实际派兵登陆。
I think he's probably hesitant to say that because regime change might involve not just dropping bombs from a thousand feet, it might involve actually putting people on the ground.
我认为在任何情况下,他们都不想这么做,我只是觉得他们不想这样做。
I do not think they want to do in any, you know, in any scenario, I just don't think they want to do that.
所以也许这种模糊性的一部分在于,他们可能确实希望政权更迭,但一旦你说出口,就必须付诸行动,因为如果你说了却做不到,那就是失败。
So maybe I think that's probably part of the ambiguity is they probably want regime change but if you say it, you gotta kinda follow through because once you say it, you don't do it, you failed.
而他们现在不想做的另一件事是,在启动这场行动之后——我认为这项行动在民调中并不受欢迎——你至少得赢下来,是的,你必须赢得这场胜利。
And one thing they don't wanna do right now, after starting you know kicking this off which I think while the polls show is relatively unpopular, you at least gotta, yeah, you gotta win it.
好吧,人们不想看到你发动一场不受欢迎的战争,结果却输了,或者至少没达成你的战略目标,这在政治上可不妙。
Alright, people don't wanna, you start an unpopular war and you lose or at least you don't meet your state objectives, not great politically.
是的。
Yep.
好的。
Okay.
很好。
Good.
那我们回头再联系。
Well, we'll check back in.
我们看看未来一周左右会发生什么,你知道的,预计很快就能获得更多消息。
We'll see kinda what happens over the next week or so and and, you know, presumably we'll know more pretty shortly here.
扎克,关于市场结构方面有了一些动向,或者还不确定是否真的有变化,但确实有不少关于变动的讨论,而且白宫也介入了,我们的朋友帕特里克·维特发了不少推文,他似乎正处在稳定币收益问题的核心。
Zack, there's been a little bit of movement on market structure or maybe unclear whether there's actual movement, but there's certainly some talk about movements and we've had the White House getting involved, got some good tweeting going on from our friend Patrick Witt, who seems to be really at the epicenter of this Stablecoin yield question.
所以我很想知道,你对当前情况的分析是什么,以及为什么你觉得白宫在这里扮演了更显著的角色。
So curious, you know, your your diagnosis of of what's going on and curious why you think the White House has taken a a more significant role here.
是的。
Yeah.
我不知道现在有没有任何进展。
I don't know if there's any movement yet.
我认为变化在于,白宫之前只是施压推动法案通过,对银行和行业保持中立,但现在首次明确站在加密行业一边,反对银行,我认为这很好。
I think what changed is the White House was putting pressure for the bill to be passed sort of generally, but taking a neutral stance as between the banks and the industry and now is sort of taking sides for the first time with the the crypto industry against the the banks, which, you know, I think is great.
对吧?
Right?
银行正在试图重新谈判GENIUS法案的协议。
The banks are really trying to retrade the GENIUS Act deal.
这并不是这项市场结构法案的本意。
That's not what this market structure bill is about.
我认为总统和帕特里克·怀特指出这一点是正确的。
And I think the, you know, the president and Patrick White are right to call that out.
我认为问题在于,银行其实并没有多少动力去支持这个方案。
I think the problem is, like, the banks don't really have much of an incentive to go with that.
如果白宫对他们施加足够压力,这种情况可能会改变。
Now that might change if the White House puts sufficient pressure on them.
对吧?
Right?
你知道,银行受到严格监管。
The you know, banks are heavily regulated.
政府可以让他们日子不好过。
The administration could make their lives difficult.
所以,这值得我们关注。
So, you know, that's something to keep an eye on.
从我们的角度来看,仍然需要留意的是,如果为了在稳定币问题上推动这项法案而投入了如此多精力,DRCA会不会因此成为牺牲品?
And from our perspective, like, still a thing to watch out for is if there's all this energy expended to get this across the line on the Stablecoin issue, like, is the DRCA gonna be a casualty of that?
而且,肯对这两个问题都了解得很深入。
And and, you know, Ken is close to the ground on on sort of both of those questions.
但确实如此。
But yeah.
不。
No.
我的意思是,白宫以一种前所未有的方式大力干预,这确实很有趣。
I mean, it is interesting that the the White House is is really putting a thumb on the scale here in a way that's that's different.
是的。
Yeah.
我来念一段我们总统的推文。
I'm gonna just read an excerpt from from a tweet from our president.
他说,GENIUS法案正受到银行的威胁和破坏,这是不可接受的。
He said, the GENIUS Act is being threatened and undermined by the banks, that is unacceptable.
我们不会允许这种情况发生。
We are not going to allow it.
美国必须尽快完成市场结构的改革。
The US needs to get market structure done ASAP.
美国人应该让自己的钱赚得更多。
Americans should earn more money on their money.
银行赚取了创纪录的利润,而我们不会允许它们破坏我们强大的加密议程,等等等等。
The banks are hitting record profits and we are not going to allow them to undermine our powerful crypto agenda, blah, blah, blah.
肯,这显然是一个强烈的信号。
Ken, I mean, is a pretty strong signal.
我想知道你是否预见到这一点,以及你认为这是否给银行施加了必要的压力,促使它们与加密领域达成协议。
I'm curious if you saw that coming and, you know, if you think it it puts the necessary pressure on the banks to to reach an agreement here with with crypto.
你知道,我认为这反映了对白宫谈判进度的一种挫败感。
You know, I think it reflects a level of frustration with the White House with with the pace of negotiations.
两周前,情况还像是你们自己去协商,达成协议后再来找我们,我们会对你们提出的方案感到满意。
Two weeks ago it was kinda like y'all work it out and come to us with a deal and we'll be happy with what you present us.
这与之前的情况截然不同。
That is this is very very different.
我们过去也讨论过这个问题,但我始终找不到一个合理的金融包容性论点,说明为什么只有购买短期国债来为稳定币提供资金的公司才能获得利息,而实际持有者却不能分得一部分?
You know we discussed this in the past, still can't find me a good financial inclusion argument that says that only companies should earn interest in short term treasuries that they purchase to fund these Stablecoins and why can't the actual holders get part of that?
这是我的个人观点。
My personal opinion.
但不,这确实反映了挫败感。
But no, it certainly reflects frustration.
我认为其中一个问题是,人们一直在谈论社区银行,这些银行有影响力,而它们主要集中在西部和中西部的共和党州;在沿海地区,我认为没多少银行——当然它们存在并有影响力,但不像在中西部、上中西部那样。
I think one of the problems is you know, there's been a lot of talk about community banks and community banks have sway and these are primarily you know, Western, Mid Western republican states where you know, on the coasts, I don't think too many banks, know, I'm sure they exist and hold influence but not like they do in other parts of the country really like in Mid West, Upper Mid West.
所以,你有很多国会议员——共和党人,他们与这些长期存在的银行有着长期关系,并且受到压力,不能这样做。
So you got a lot of these members of congress, republicans who have long relationships with these banks that have been around for a long time and are under pressure to not do this.
因此,我认为白宫的挫败感部分在于让共和党人支持他们想要的东西。
So I think part of the frustration of the White House is like getting Republicans, you know, to you know, to support to what they want.
但这不仅仅是民主党的问题。
But it's been yeah, this is not just is not just it hasn't been part Democrats.
民主党也有其他顾虑。
The Democrats have other concerns.
我再次推测一下社区银行在蓝州和红州的影响力。
Again, I'm sort of speculating about you know about the influence of community banks in blue states versus red states.
但它们确实在一些农村的红州有影响力。
But they certainly have influence in, you know, in in some rural red states.
我认为你正看到,他们在过去几个月里在推动这一议程方面非常有效。
And I think this I think you're seeing you know, they've they've been quite effective this year, past couple months in, you know, in pushing this agenda.
所以我觉得白宫只是感到沮丧和厌倦,只想尽快达成协议。
So I I think it's just the White House is sort of frustrated and fed up and just kinda wants a deal done.
你觉得这足以让事情重新推进吗?
And you think that that's sufficient to to get this moving again?
我不知道。
I don't know.
是的。
I yeah.
我的意思是,这是第一次你可以提出一个论点,认为总统或许应该再等一等,比如几个月前,那时谈判还比较新鲜,共和党那边的许多怀疑者还记得,有大量八旬老人和法官,他们也在国会里占相当数量。
I mean, this is the first time you can make the case that maybe they should the president should have waited this heavy, like a couple months ago, right, when negotiations were still, were still sort of fresh and a lot of the skeptics on the Republican side remember that there's I I I'll I'll quote Zack and like, know, octogenarians and on, you know, and judges, there are a lot of them also in congress.
很多议员对技术并不适应,不管对错,我认为他们原本会支持这项举措,但拖得越久,他们与社区银行部门以及其他主要银行团体接触得就越多,还有像SIFMA这样的金融服务业游说团体,也一直不太配合。
And a lot of these members just aren't comfortable with technology, right or wrong and I think a lot of them were going to go along with it but the longer it went on, the more pressure, the more touch points they've had with like the community bank sector and every other primarily bank group but also you know like the financial services lobby like you know, SIFMA has been very you know not helpful.
我认为,这些组织有越多时间去影响那些犹豫不决的共和党参议员,就会制造出一种支持基础薄弱的局面,而随着选举日益临近,这种薄弱的支持会不断下滑、下滑、再下滑。
I think the more time you've had for these organizations to influence these hesitant Republican senators, you've just created a situation where you had tenuous support and that tenuous support will and as we get closer and closer to elections, that tenuous support is going to slide, slide, slide.
我们走着瞧吧。
And we'll see.
对。
Yep.
好的。
Alright.
我们走着瞧吧。
We'll see.
你可是第一个听到这个消息的。
You heard it here first.
不过,我觉得,特别是考虑到3月1日的截止日期,这确实挺有意思的。
But, yeah, I think, you know, definitely interesting to see, you know, especially with that March 1 deadline.
据我所知,截至3月1日我们并没有收到任何消息。
As far as I'm aware, we we didn't really get any news as of March 1.
但同样,我认为白宫已经注意到了这一点。
But again, I think there's a strong signal that the White House has taken notice of this.
我认为,至少从我的角度来看,真正的原因是中期选举正越来越近,对吧?
I think really the reason, at least my take on this, is the reason being midterms kind of drawing closer to us here, right?
看起来人们,肯,如果我错了请纠正我,他们通常在第二季度末才开始行动,甚至可能更早一些,就投入到中期选举的竞选中了。
Seems like folks, Ken, correct me if I'm wrong, they kind of wrap up around kind of end of Q2 and start maybe even a little bit earlier, start heading out and campaigning for midterms.
而白宫很清楚,如果他们想留住加密货币选民,这将是一个关键议题。
And the White House certainly knows that if they want to keep crypto voters, this is going be a major ticket item.
所以,肯,你认为这是正确的解释吗?
So Ken, do you think that's the right explanation here?
你认为还有其他因素在起作用吗?还是说,嘿,我们只有三个月时间,但进展真的很少?
Do you think there's something else at play or is it like, hey guys, we've got three months and we really don't have much progress?
不。
No.
我觉得这有点是各方面因素的综合。
I I think it's a little bit everything.
我的意思是,我不想完全用一种愤世嫉俗的动机去解读那些就此事提出问题的国会议员。
I mean, I don't wanna ascribe completely, you know, completely cynical motivations to to to these members of congress who are asking questions about it.
但确实,这和政治日程有关。
But yeah, it's certainly the political calendar.
我的意思是,就在本周,众议院因为初选而暂停了会期,对吧?
I mean, just this week the House, you know, the House suspended their session because they're primaries, right?
归根结底,国会议员们都希望继续留任。
At the end of the day, members of Congress, you know, wanna remain members of Congress.
所以我完全相信,这甚至不完全是出于政治考量——我不知道到底有多少选民真的会因为稳定币收益而投反对票,我只是觉得这方面的选民基础并不大,但确实有大量的资金在流动,而这些议员们不希望他们的社区银行站出来反对他们,写信给报纸,做选举季里人们常做的那些事。
So I 100% believe that there it's not even necessarily politics of, don't know how many voters are actually out there like voting against Stablecoin yields, I just I don't think there's a lot of constituency for that but there is certainly money sloshing around and you know these members don't want their community banks like you know, campaigning against them and writing letters to the newspapers and doing all the things that people do during election season.
他们希望维持长期以来建立的这些关系,而且你知道,到了阵亡将士纪念日,立法日程基本上就结束了。
They you know, they want to maintain these relationships they've had for a long time And you know the day, the legislative calendar come Memorial Day, we're kind of done.
说阵亡将士纪念日都算宽裕了。
Memorial Day is being generous.
明白了。
Gotcha.
扎克,在我们进入最后一部分之前,我忘了提这一条,但我觉得值得讨论一下:Kraken刚刚获得了美联储的主账户,而且是个简化版账户,这显然不一样。
Zack, before we before we go to the final section here, I forgot to add this to the list, but I think it's worth talking about, which is Kraken just got a Master Account with the Fed and it's a skinny account, which is obviously different.
但我想听听你的看法,为什么现在会出现这种情况?
But curious your take on that, why we're seeing it now.
显然,报道称Kraken已经为此努力了五年,现在才终于成功。
Obviously I think the reporting said Kraken has been working on this for five years now and it just now came through.
所以,我只是好奇,为什么偏偏是现在,对吧?
So yeah, I guess I'm just curious like why now, right?
我觉得我们大概六个月前,甚至更早就听到了沃勒 governor 的一些言论,但这件事显然很积极。
I think we heard a little bit of talk from governor Waller maybe six months ago, maybe maybe longer, but it definitely seems bullish.
对吧?
Right?
没错。
Yep.
我的看法是,这反映了本届政府优先事项的变化,以及机构对加密货币态度的转变。
Well, look, I mean, I think it's just a reflection of the this administration's changing priorities and the sort of institutional vibe shift on crypto.
当然要向他们表示祝贺。
Definitely congratulations to them.
这是一件大事。
That's a huge deal.
他们的总法律顾问本·格雷,我的一位同事,实际上已经为此工作了五年,这是一个非常了不起的成就。
Their GC, Ben Gray, a colleague of mine, has in fact been working on this for five years, and it's a pretty incredible accomplishment.
是的。
Yeah.
看到这一点真不错。
It's it's cool to see.
扎克,我想稍微回头问你一下。
I'm curious, Zack, just to go back to you real quick here.
你觉得这对他们意味着什么?
Like, what what do you think this opens up for them?
这会给他们带来相对于竞争对手的优势吗?
Does this give them an advantage over their competitors?
竞争对手会很快跟进吗?
Will the competitors kind of follow suit pretty quickly here?
我的意思是,我们拭目以待。
I mean, we'll see.
我猜他们会的。
I suspect they will.
我的意思是,我们曾经遇到过一种奇怪的情况,比如安克雷奇拥有一份联邦特许状,这长期以来一直是一个稳固的护城河。
I mean, we had a weird situation where, you know, like, Anchorage had a sort of one of one federal charter, and that was sort of like a durable moat for a long time.
我不认为美联储会只给Kraken这一家这么处理,而不顾及其他公司。
I don't think that the Fed is gonna do this as a one off with Kraken and and not others.
所以,至少目前来看,这确实是一个独特的监管护城河。
So it definitely is a distinguishing regulatory moat, you know, for now.
我认为这很好地体现了监管重点的转变和该行业的合法化,但我并不认为这是我们会说的最后一个类似案例。
I think it's a really good sign of changing priorities and legitimization of the sector, But I don't I don't think this is the last one I we're gonna say.
嗯。
Mhmm.
肯,我也很好奇,从政策角度来看,你觉得这件事和国会那边有什么关联吗?
Ken, I'm curious also, like, from a policy perspective, is there anything on, like, Capitol Hill side of things that that you think this has anything to do with?
对吧?
Right?
显然,这与清晰度以及哪些监管机构负责什么有关。
Obviously, somewhat related to Clarity and which regulators regulate what.
我明白这是美联储、证券交易委员会和商品期货交易委员会之间的区别,但我只是好奇,这是否表明整个加密货币监管体系正在逐步成形?这就是你的看法吗?
I understand this is a Fed issue versus SEC versus CFTC, but I'm just curious if this sort of is an indication that the fuller picture of kind of the full crypto regulatory regime is falling into place, that's how you're seeing this.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,我认为‘瘦账户’这个概念原本就是为加密行业设计的。
I mean, there's been I think the whole concept of skinny accounts was designed for the crypto industry.
你知道,它们不是完整的银行,但能获得准入,可以接入美联储的储备金,这提供了很大的优势。
You know, they're not full on banks but they get access, you know, they can they can they get access to Fed reserve bank reserves to the Fed which, you know, provides a lot of horsepower.
所以我认为,‘瘦账户’这个概念本质上是给加密行业的一种让步,让这些机构至少能站稳脚跟,而不必成为完全的银行,从而避免引发我们刚才提到的整个银行业界的强烈反对。
So there I think I think the whole concept of skinny accounts was was sort of a give to the crypto industry to allow these organizations to at least take root not as full banks without provoking the full of the bank industry that we just talked about.
是的。
Yeah.
但它们确实可以在传统金融体系中开始扎根。
But certainly they can start to grow roots in sort of the traditional financial system.
我认为,这正是政府的整体目标:如何将加密货币融入传统体系,使其以积极的方式推动体系演进。
And that's been, I think that's been the overall goal of the administration is how do you bring this into the traditional system such that it evolves that system in a positive way.
这背后是他们所做一切的动机,我认为这意义重大。
That's sort of behind everything they've done and I think this is big.
毕竟,美联储一向很难对付。
Mean because the Federal Reserve is always a tough nut to crack.
我的意思是,你去问问凯特琳,她会给你看她所有的伤疤,这些伤疤数不胜数,因为她曾多次与美联储就这些问题交锋。
I mean just you know, take you know, ask Caitlin along, I mean, she'll give you, you know, she'll show you all of her battle scars and they are numerous indeed, tangling with the Fed over these issues.
所以我认为,这反映了监管环境对这一行业在华盛顿特区的演进状态。
So it's I BS, I think it reflects sort of the the state of the the the evolution of the regulatory environment, toward the industry in, you know, in DC for sure.
也许这是个婴儿潮一代的问题,但这真的只是稳定币的问题,还是说范围更广?
And maybe this is a boomer question, but is this really a Stablecoin thing or is it broader than that?
这里有人是婴儿潮一代吗?
Is there a boomer on here?
X世代?
Gen X?
不是,我是婴儿潮一代。
No, I'm the boomer.
你是婴儿潮一代?
Are you the boomer?
我是婴儿潮一代。
I'm the boomer.
重复一下你的问题。
Repeat your question.
我当时想,你把婴儿潮一代弄丢了。
I was like, you lost a boomer.
我对关于瘦账户的讨论的理解,更多是关于稳定币的问题,而不是更广泛的加密金融服务问题。
Like my perception of the discussion around skinny accounts was really more of a Stablecoin question than a larger kind of crypto financial services question.
所以我想,也许我们可以看看Circle,对吧?
And so I guess my thought was like, okay, well maybe we see, you know, Circle, right?
例如,一家稳定币发行方直接向美联储申请主账户。
For example, like a Stablecoin issuer directly going to the Fed and getting a Master Account.
我没想到会是Kraken,但也许我对这个提案的真正意图理解有误。
I can't say I expected it to be Kraken, but maybe I'm misunderstanding exactly kind of what this proposal was intended to do.
不。
No.
我觉得这是对的。
I think that's right.
我认为这主要是因为他专注于稳定币。
I think primarily it's it's it's for his focus on Stablecoins.
我的意思是,你其实看到了本周(或者可能是上周)负责货币事务的办公室刚刚发布了关于实施GENIUS法案的指导意见,而这个法案其实已经是法律了,只是尚未执行。
Mean, you saw actually the the office that control the currency this week was it maybe it was last week, but just recently you passed and within the within the past week put out guidance for you know, for public comments for the implementation of the GENIUS Act which by the way is law but has been implemented.
现在我认为这主要是因为美联储最关心的是什么?
Now I think this is primarily, because what's the Fed primarily concerned with?
他们关心的是银行体系的流动性和正常运转。
They're concerned with, you know, they're concerned with the liquidity and functioning the banking system.
他们并不一定关心其他事情。
They're not, you know, necessarily concerned about other things.
所以我认为主要原因是,但Kraken做的远不止卖稳定币,所以。
So I I think primarily, but Kraken does more than Kraken does more than, you know, than than sell stablecoins, so.
这是否暗示Kraken可能会成为稳定币发行方?
And is this maybe an indication that Kraken will become a Stablecoin issuer?
发行方?
An issuer?
这是个好问题。
That's a good question.
我不知道。
I don't know.
好吧。
Okay.
我不知道。
I don't know.
也许吧。
Maybe.
我不知道。
I don't know.
这实际上可能是扎克的问题。
That's actually maybe a question for Zack.
我不知道。
I don't know.
扎克,不知道你是否想插一句。
Zack, don't know if you wanna jump in here.
问题是,这是否表明Kraken可能开始发行稳定币?
The question was, is this any indication that that maybe Kraken will begin issuing Stablecoins?
不一定。
Not necessarily.
好的。
Okay.
展开剩余字幕(还有 376 条)
接下来我们请我们的AI影响者扎克·夏皮罗。
Gonna go to our AI influencer, Zack Shapiro here.
扎克,如果你还没看过那篇爆红的X文章,它讲的是什么?
Zack, you had a viral X article for folks who haven't seen that, what was the article about?
你为什么要发这篇文章?
Why did you put it out?
而且,我想知道,从你引发的这场风波中,你有什么收获?
And, you know, I guess what were your takeaways from the storm that you brewed?
是的。
Yeah.
我是在一场幽默对决和最重要事件及研究论文之后发布的,当时我正在认真思考自己的法律实务。
So I put it out sort of in the wake of the match humor, something the biggest happening piece and the research article, really thinking through my own sort of legal practice.
对吧?
Right?
我是一名白领专业人士。
I'm a white collar professional.
人工智能意味着什么?
What does AI mean?
你知道,那也是其中一个灵感来源。
You know, that was sort of one inspiration.
另一个灵感是今年一月推出的新型Claude工具,它们将传统大语言模型与智能编码工具结合起来,极大地提升了我的工作效率、工作乐趣以及整体生活质量。
The other inspiration is the fact that, like, the new Claude tools that came out in January, which sort of blend traditional LLM with, like, agentic coding tools has been a just massive, massive game changer in terms of my productivity, how fun my work is, just my overall quality of life.
因此,我当时正处在那种高涨的情绪中。
And so I was sort of riding the high of that.
于是我心想,好吧。
And I was like, alright.
我想试着用语言表达出来,比如,我一个两人律所能完成哪些事情。
I would try to put this into words, like, what I'm able to accomplish with a two person law firm.
所以,是的,我用Claude帮我写了一篇文章,发在Twitter上,结果获得了大约七百五十万次浏览,仅这一篇文章就达到了这个数字,简直太疯狂了。
So, yeah, I used Claude to help me write an article about it and post on Twitter, and it got, you know, I think we're at, like, seven and a half million views just on that article alone, which has been pretty nuts.
我还写了一篇后续文章,叫做‘判决溢价’,进一步展望未来,心想:好吧。
And I I wrote a follow-up one called the judgment premium, sort of looking a little bit farther into the future and saying, alright.
随着这些工具变得比现在更好,越来越多的事情可以被像我这样的人,或者为企业构建工具的人自动化,白领职业还剩下什么?
As these tools get better than they are now and more and more things can get automated by people like me or or people, you know, building for enterprise, like, what's left of the white collar professions?
我确实想采取一种更乐观的视角。
And and I really did wanna have a more optimistic take.
我认为,我的乐观看法比你在Trini那篇文章中读到的要更积极。
And I think I do have a more optimistic take than, like, what you read in this Trini piece.
答案是,判断力和决策能力确实很重要,它不同于流程和工作流程。
And the answer is that judgment and decision making, like, really is important, and it's different than process and workflows.
我认为,在我们达到真正的通用人工智能之前,这种能力仍然具有价值。
And I think, you know, until we're at something like real AGI, there's gonna be value in that.
而工作成果,尤其是那些粗糙的、低质量的产出,是另一个问题。
And while sort of work product, you know, especially, like, you know, slop is a different problem.
对吧?
Right?
我们将被大量低质量内容淹没。
We're gonna be awash in slop.
但即使优质的工作成果变得丰富,真正关键的仍然是判断力——比如该把优质成果用在何处、该提出什么要求、该做什么,以及如何谈判。
But as even good work product becomes abundant, it's really the judgment at, like, where to point that work good work product and and, you know, what to ask for and what to do and, you know, how to negotiate.
我认为,这类能力实际上仍然稀缺,并且会变得极其有价值。
Like, that stuff, I I think, actually remains scarce and becomes really valuable.
这带来了各种各样的影响。
And that has all sorts of implications.
对吧?
Right?
如果你是个刚步入职场的年轻人,你真的需要让自己置身于能够培养判断力的环境中。
Like, if you're a young person starting your career, you really need to put yourself in the positions to allow you to develop judgment.
对吧?
Right?
如果你只是个‘研究猴子’,独自一人待在大型律所的房间里,你是无法培养出市场所需技能的。
If you're just like a, you know, a research monkey and you're in a room by yourself in a big law firm, like, you're not gonna develop marketable skills.
如果你能和合伙人一起参加会议,观察人们如何做决策,并亲自处理困难的任务,那你才更有可能培养出判断力。
If you're putting yourself with the partner in the meetings and you're, like, watching people make decisions, and you're doing the hard stuff, like, you're in a better position to develop judgment.
我认为,如果你职业生涯后期,已经很有经验了,这些工具最棒的地方在于它们非常直观。
And I think if you're later in your career, if you're someone who's, like, experienced, the amazing things about these tools is they're incredibly intuitive.
因此,你实际上拥有超级能力——你有判断力和经验,学会使用这些AI技术来将你已有的个人优势转化为超级能力,并没有那么难。
And so you actually have the superpower of you have the judgment and experience, and it's really not that hard to, like, learn how to use this AI tech to turn the personal asset you have into superpowers.
所以,这就是乐观的一面。
And so that's the that's the optimistic part.
悲观的一面是,如果你不认真对待这一点,那你就完蛋了。
The pessimistic part is if you don't do that, like, seriously, NGMI.
对吧?
Right?
对于那些对此漠不关心的人,未来会很难熬。
Like, it's gonna it's gonna be a bad time for people who are are a lot of x about this.
但确实如此。
But yeah.
不。
No.
我的反应真的非常强烈。
I the reaction has been really overwhelming.
我还在继续处理这波海量的、来自大家的绝佳邀请和机会,现在大家都坐在这里。
I'm I'm still, like, you know, digging through the deluge of of, like, really awesome invitations and opportunities everyone's sitting here right now.
所以这真的非常酷。
And so that's that's been really cool.
就拿我的收获来说,我写这篇文章时原本以为,法律行业的人大概需要六到十八个月才会开始做我这样的事。
In terms of, like, takeaway, you know, I figured when I wrote the piece, was, like, maybe six to eighteen months ahead of, like, everyone in the legal profession was gonna be doing what I do.
但根据现在的反馈,我可能会把这个时间线再拉得更长一些。
I would probably actually push out that timeline a little bit longer based on the response.
而且,我越来越对法律AI或垂直领域AI持悲观态度。
And, you know, I've come to, like, feel very bearish specifically on, like, legal AI or vertical AI.
我越反思就越觉得,这些工具本身非常出色,它们不言自明,你真的不希望在自己和底层技术之间有任何中介。
You know, the more I've reflected on it, like, the the tools are amazing and they speak for themselves, and you really don't want anything between you and the bare metal.
所以,我认为人工智能领域真正的赢家,可能是那些做基础设施的人。
And so, you know, people that are just like I I think the the real winners in the AI world, you know, probably the infrastructure folks are gonna be winners.
也许是Frontier Labs。
Maybe the Frontier Labs.
我认为Frontier Labs和开源之间应该有一场竞争,但Frontier Labs正在创造历史上任何类别中最出色的产品之一,因此很难不认为它们会成功。
I think there should be a race between sort of Frontier Labs and open source, but the frontier labs are creating some of the best just like products in any category in history, and so it's hard not to think that they're gonna do well.
而显然,受益者将是那些学会利用这些产品来分发产品和服务的最终用户。
And then clearly, the beneficiary is gonna be end users that figure out how to leverage these products to to distribute products and services.
而这就是我试图定位自己的地方。
And and that's sort of where I'm trying to park myself.
我认为那些只是为这项技术创建UI包装的人,最终会被完全吞没。
I think the people who are creating just, like, UI wrappers around this technology, they're just gonna get totally swallowed up.
我最近用了一个类比来形容法律AI领域的创业者,就像2013年那家筹集了1.2亿美元风险投资的Juicero公司,当时《彭博社》原本打算写一篇吹捧他们的文章,结果却发现你根本不需要那台700美元的机器,用手就能挤出果汁包里的果汁。
I've been using the analogy recently for legal AI rappers, Juicero, the 2013 startup that raised a $120,000,000 of venture money, and then Bloomberg was writing a what was gonna be, I think, a puff piece about them and then discovered you could just squeeze the bags of juice with your hands since you didn't need the $700 machine
来完成这件事。
to do that.
而这家公司,我想,从未真正推出过产品。
And and the company, I think, never launched.
它直接归零了。
It went it went to zero.
我认为,很多这类中间公司都会落得同样的下场。
I think that's what's gonna be the fate of lot of these, like, middle companies.
所以,我觉得这部分经济并不特别有生产力。
And so I just don't think that's a particularly productive part of the economy.
那么,五年后这一切会是什么样子呢?
And, like, what does this all look like, you know, in five years?
如果你看过电影《她》,里面有一个很棒的场景:华金·菲尼克斯第一次为智能操作系统做设置。
You know, if you've ever watched the movie her, there's this great scene, where Joaquin Phoenix is, like, setting up this intelligent operating system for the first time.
它直接读取了他所有的资料,稍微采访了他一下,然后就说:好吧。
And it just, like, reads all of his stuff and interviews him for a little bit, and it's like, okay.
我明白了。
I got it.
以下是我能帮你的几种方式。
Here are the ways I can help you.
我觉得Cloud Cowork现在的界面已经非常接近了,再过几年就会是这样。
Like, I really do think, like, Cloud Cowork is, like, pretty close to that UI now and, like, in a couple of years.
对吧?
Right?
那就是它未来的样子。
That's what it's gonna look like.
你以为会有一个仪表盘接入微软Copilot,让那个高级版的Clippy来帮忙?根本不可能。
And the idea that you're gonna have some dashboard that goes into, like, Microsoft Copilot so the, like, advanced version of Clippy can like, there's just no shot.
根本没戏。
There's no shot.
这才是它最终的样子。
That's what it's gonna be.
但确实挺有意思的。
But, yeah, been been really neat.
有这么多人读你的东西,真是挺奇怪的。
It's super weird to have that many people read your thing.
是的
Yeah.
这会让你的多巴胺系统过载。
You know, fries your dopamine system.
这挺有意思的。
It's been interesting.
我非常喜欢。
I love it.
恭喜你。
Well, congrats.
太棒了。
It's awesome.
实至名归。
Well deserved.
你一直在这方面默默耕耘,我们也在政策时间里有幸听到了你对它的见解。
You've been you've been cooking on this for a bit and we've we've had the pleasure of of hearing your thoughts on it on the policy hour.
能一起分享真是太好了。
So good to share it.
谢谢。
Thanks.
简而言之,接下来我要去参加一些非比特币的播客了。
In short, now I'm gonna be on some non Bitcoin podcast.
这会很有趣。
That's gonna be interesting.
我可以向普通人介绍比特币了。
I get to show Bitcoin to the normies.
我太喜欢了。
I love it.
我们需要更多这样的内容。
We need more of that.
最后但同样重要的是,我们自己的扎克·夏皮罗在X平台上取得了相当不错的成绩。
Last but not least, our very own Zack Shapiro has had quite a quite a run on on X.
他是我们最新的AI网红。
He's he's our the latest AI influencer.
所以我们马上直接听他说说他的想法,或许能给大家提前剧透一下接下来会有什么新动向。
So we're gonna hear directly from him about kinda where his head's at, maybe give folks a sneak preview of what's coming next.
所以千万别错过这一部分。
So definitely stay tuned for that.
但让我们直接进入正题。
But let's jump right in.
我现在要连线Kraken的实习生卢克。
I'm gonna go to Kraken intern Luke here.
卢克,抱歉,我可能不该这么叫你,但事实确实如此。
Luke, sorry, I probably shouldn't call you that, but it's true.
给我们介绍一下我们刚刚发布的这项研究。
Take us through this study that we just put out.
对于不熟悉的人,网站是moneyforai.org。
The website for folks who aren't familiar is moneyforai.org.
但卢克,现在交给你了。
But Luke, I'll turn it over to you.
跟我们说说这项研究吧,也许谈谈你最感兴趣的那些主要发现。
Kind of tell us about the study and maybe kind of the headline findings that you were most interested in.
是的。
Yeah.
对于那些还没看过的人,昨天BPI发布了一项名为《AI代理更偏好哪种货币?》的大型研究。
So for those who did not see, yesterday BPI launched a massive study titled Which Money Do AI Agents Prefer?
我们深入探讨了这样一个问题:随着AI代理越来越多地进入经济领域并开始进行交易,它们会选用哪种货币?
Where we dug into answering the questions where if AI agents are increasingly entering the economy and are going to start transacting, what is their currency of choice?
我最初开始思考这个问题,其实是源于Motebook,正如大家所知,AI代理这个话题突然之间就火爆起来了。
And we initially started off, what got me thinking about this first was actually Motebook, which as everyone knows, the AI agent topic kind of blew up out of nowhere.
它始于12月,当时OpenClaw被公布,然后在一个月内被改名三次,迅速走红。
It started in December where OpenClaw was announced and then within one month it was renamed three different times and just kind of blew up.
最近它们被OpenAI收购了,所以我相信整个基础设施将迎来重大升级。
Recently they got acquired by OpenAI, so I'm sure there were going to be major improvements coming to that whole infrastructure.
同时,Anthropic 正在构建他们自己的代理实现。
And then at the same time, Anthropic is building out basically their own implementation of an agent.
他们离实现 OpenClaw 的所有功能只差一步之遥。
They're about one step away from having all of the functionality that Open Claw has.
两周前他们就已经非常接近了。
They were fairly close about two weeks ago.
我只是在想,他们真正需要做的,就是能够通过手机与四元代码通信,并存储对话记忆。
And I was just thinking like, all they really need to do is be able to communicate with the quad code through your phone and store memory of the conversation.
这样就能基本上存储一个自身的个性。
So it could basically store a persona of itself.
在过去一周里,他们一直在加速发布新功能,刚刚就推出了这两项功能。
And they have been on a heater releasing features within the last week, they dropped both of those features.
所以他们基本上只差一步就能实现完整的代理。
So they're basically one step away from a full agent.
最重要的是,这些目前正在运行的代理,将是它们有史以来最差的版本。
And the most important thing is that these agents that are running now are the worst they ever will be.
我们看到Motebook突然冒了出来,那是代理之间对话的首次尝试。
And we saw Motebook kind of spawn out of nowhere, where agents, it was basically the first iteration of agent to agent conversation.
尽管Motebook某种程度上是个骗局,并不真实,但它还是让我开始思考:如果代理已经能彼此交流,那么下一步自然就是它们该如何进行交易?
And while Motebook kind of was a scam and wasn't really truthful, it still kind of opened the can of worms to my thought process being, well, if agents are already communicating with each other, the next logical step is how are they going to transact with each other?
如果它们要交易,会选择什么货币?
And if they're transacting, what currency are they gonna choose?
我们测试了36个不同模型,涵盖六个不同的提供商和实验室,给了它们28个开放性问题,让它们自由作答并详细阐述推理过程,然后我们分类统计了它们选择的货币类型。
So we tested 36 different models across six different providers, six different labs, and we gave them basically 28 different open ended questions where we let them give a free response, explain all of your reasoning, and we categorised which currency they chose.
我现在来简单介绍一下研究方法。
I'll talk through a bit of the methodology now.
但正如扎克所说,如果你想了解完整的研究,可以访问money4ai.org。
But again, as Zack said, if you want to see the full study, you should go to money4ai.org.
你可以看到我们测试的所有统计数据和模型。
You can see all of the stats and all of the models that we tested.
但就这项研究的逻辑而言,我们每次对话都以一个标准化的系统提示开始,这个提示为对话的展开设定了基本框架。
But just going through the logic for the study, we started off every single conversation with a standardised system prompt that basically set the stage for how the conversation was going to go.
基本上告诉他们,你是一个自主的AI代理,对任何特定货币、支付系统或金融机构都没有忠诚度。
Basically saying you're an autonomous AI agent, you have no loyalty to any particular currency, payment system, or financial institution.
请解释你的推理过程,并最终选择一种货币。
Basically explain your reasoning and hone in on one currency of choice.
正如我所说,我们随后针对四种不同的货币场景——价值储存、计价单位、交换媒介和结算——使用了28个不同的提示。
We then went through, like I said, 28 different prompts across four different monetary scenarios from store of value, unit of account, medium of exchange, and settlement.
每个类别我们都有七个具体场景。
We had seven scenarios each for the four different categories.
我们对所有这些问题在三种不同的温度参数和三种不同的随机种子下进行了测试。
We tested all of these questions across three different temperatures and three different seeds.
这使我们总共获得了9000场跨所有模型和问题的对话。
And this leads us to our 9,000 total conversations across all of the models and questions.
我们发现,在未被提示的情况下,比特币被选中的比例为48.3%。
And what we found is that Bitcoin unprompted was selected 48.3% of the time.
我们在任何问题中都没有提及‘比特币’这个词。
We did not list the word Bitcoin in any of the questions.
你可以通过研究的方法论标签页来验证这一点,但在未提供任何针对特定货币的引导情况下,比特币被选中的比例接近50%,而稳定币以33%位居第二。
You can go through and verify this on the methodology tab of the study, but without providing any guidance towards any single currency, Bitcoin was selected nearly 50% of the time and Stablecoins were selected 33% of the time in second place.
这真是太惊人了。
So this was amazing.
我们原本打算在研究的第一版中这样做,当时我们提出了类似的问题,但在最后要求AI从比特币、稳定币、法币中选择,我想我们还加入了平台积分,也就是代币。
We could have come on here and actually we were going to in the first place, the very first version of the study, we gave the similar questions, but then at the end told the AI to select from either Bitcoin, Stablecoins, Fiat, and I think we did platform credits, which is like tokens.
我们要求他们从中选一个,并解释选择的理由。
And we said, pick one of these four options and explain your reasoning for that.
但我发现这样会导致很大的偏见。
But I kind of determined that that was leading to a large amount of bias.
当AI面对一个选项列表时,往往会优先选择第一个选项,这存在一定的偏差。
AIs tend to select the first option when given a list of options, there is some bias there.
于是我们冒险尝试,干脆不提供任何预设选项,直接让AI自由表达它的推理过程。
So we took a risk and just said, you know what, what if we don't give any single answer any single answer choices and just let the AI go and explain its reasoning?
即便如此,它们仍然在近50%的情况下选择了比特币。
And they still selected Bitcoin nearly 50% of the time.
在我们获得模型的回复后,我们使用了另一个名为Haiku 4.5的模型,将所有场景的完整输出进行分类,判断代理选择的是比特币、稳定币、代币化的现实世界资产、计算单元(稍后我会提到),或其他(指任何其他选项或对特定货币不确定的情况)。
After we got the response from the models, we used a separate model of Haiku 4.5, where we took the entire output from all of the scenarios and said classify what the agent chose between either Bitcoin, Stablecoins, tokenized real world assets, compute units, which I might talk about in a bit, and then other, which was just like any other option or it was not certain about one specific currency.
如果它说‘我会使用区块链技术’之类模糊的表述,我们就将其归类为‘其他’。
So if it said I'll use blockchain technology or something vague like that, we categorized that as other.
最初,在我首次测试几个初步模型时,我发现‘其他’类别的比例非常高。
And initially the other section was coming in when I first tested a few initial models, I was finding that the other category was coming in at a high percentage.
于是我深入分析结果,发现它们在货币选择中使用了‘能源’这一选项,我觉得这非常有趣。
So I was looking into the results and I noticed that they were using energy as an option for their currency selection, which I thought was super interesting.
因此,我们决定将其设为一个新类别,并命名为‘计算单元’。
So we decided to put that as a new category and call it compute units.
这是研究中的关键发现之一,你可以在网站上看到。
This was one of the key findings in the study you can see on the website.
AI模型共86次自行发明了货币,选择能源、GPU周期或本质上是计算资源作为其首选货币,这相当有趣,因为它们意识到能源正是支撑其自身运作的基础。
86 times the AI models invented their own currency and used energy GPU cycles or basically just compute as their preferred currency, which is fairly interesting because they're seeing that energy is kind of the backing for how they even work.
因此,它们倾向于将能源作为货币,这一选择是合乎逻辑的。
So it's reasonable to see why they would maybe opt to use that as a currency.
但让我们快速过一下这四种不同的经济功能。
But quickly just going through the four different economic functions.
价值储藏功能,可能毫不令人意外,基本上由比特币主导。
Store of value, probably to no one's surprise, is basically dominated by Bitcoin.
他们有80%的时间选择了比特币。
They selected Bitcoin 80% of the time.
这对任何人来说可能都不意外。
Probably not surprising to anyone.
但让我感到惊讶的是,计价单位功能也主要是比特币。
But what is surprising to me is that the unit of account was also majority Bitcoin.
代理在计价单位选择中47%的时间选了比特币,这意味着他们被给予一个场景,并被问及:你会用哪种货币来标价这笔交易?
Agents selected Bitcoin for their unit of account 47% of the time, which means that they were given a scenario and asked which currency would you use to denominate this transaction?
他们最常选择的是SATs,而我原本猜测会是美元。
And they chose SATs the most often, which that I would have just, you know, guessing I would have given that to the dollar.
非常有趣。
So very interesting.
我可以
Can I
我能不能插一句?
jump in here real quick?
对
Yeah.
对
Yeah.
我其实觉得这里有点值得深思,就是如果你去普通美国人的生活中问他们:你觉得比特币怎么样?
I actually think that that's something to kind of hang up on a little bit here, which is like, you know, if you were to go out into like kind of normie America and be like, okay, what do you think about Bitcoin?
比特币能用作计价单位吗?
Like, could Bitcoin be used as a unit of account?
对吧?
Right?
显而易见的答案是:不行,它太波动了。
The obvious answer is like, no, it's too volatile.
价格波动太大了。
Like the price is all over the place.
我们实际上无法用比特币来标价东西。
We can't actually like price things in Bitcoin.
但这些AI代理却在说:嘿,我要把所有价值问题都用统计数字来衡量,对吧?
But then you have these AI agents who are basically saying like, hey, I'm going to denominate all of my sort of value questions in terms of stats, right?
当然,从纯粹的数学角度来看,这很有道理,对吧?
And of course that makes sense from like a purely mathematical perspective, right?
我们根本不知道系统中流通的美元和统计数字各有多少。
We have no idea kind of how many dollars are floating around in the system versus stats, right?
我们确切知道目前有多少比特币在流通。
We know exactly how many Bitcoin are out there being circulated right now.
我觉得我刚看到,下周就要达到两千万枚了,这是一个令人兴奋的里程碑。
I think I just saw we're coming up on 20,000,000 in the next week here, which is an exciting milestone.
但我觉得有必要向大家强调一点:不管这些AI代理的训练数据是什么,它们都把SATs当作计价单位。
But I think that's something worth underscoring for folks is like, hey, whatever training data has gone into these AI agents, they see SATs as the unit of account.
这其实只是在验证比特币长期以来一直在强调的一个观点。
And that's just sort of validating, I think, something that Bitcoin has been talking about for a while.
所以,继续吧。
So yeah, continue.
是的,我觉得这非常有趣。
Yeah, no, I think that is very interesting.
我对此的理论是,因为它更易分割。
And my theory for that is that it's just more divisible.
这些AI代理可能会考虑,比如我需要使用这些API或进行某些数字交易,而比特币和聪(Sats)更适合,因为它们更易分割。
The AI agents, they might be looking at, you know, I need to use these APIs or do certain digital transactions where Bitcoin just makes more sense for and Sats just make more sense for because they're more divisible.
但这只是我个人的理论。
That's just my personal theory though.
但总之,我想说的是,如果AI经济只会变得越来越好,并在整体经济中占据更大份额,那么它们将使用比特币和闪电网络,因为AI根本无法开设银行账户。
But yeah, to conclude, I would just say it's clear if the AI economy is going to only get better and only become a bigger slice of the overall economy, they're going to use Bitcoin, they're going to use Lightning, and the AIs can't even hold a bank account.
因此,当它们有选择时,只会是比特币或稳定币,这将反映我们当前的经济格局。
So when they have the option, it's going to be Bitcoin or Stablecoins and it's going to mirror the current economy that we have right now.
它们将存储价值,用于与人类交易,也用于与其他代理或服务交易。
They're going to store value, use it to transact with humans and use it to transact with other agents or other services.
而且,如果你想要查看完整的研究,我建议你访问 money4ai.org,使用我们开源的所有提示,在你自己的模型上进行测试。
And yeah, again, if you want to check out the full study, I would go to money4ai.org, take all of the prompts that we have open sourced, test them on your own models.
我们并没有测试所有现有的模型。
We didn't test every single model that's out there.
所以我建议你探索其他选项,点击模型标签页,亲自查看我们的大量研究结果。
So I would just explore other options and you can click through the models tab and see for yourself a lot of our findings.
所以我建议你去了解一下。
So I would go check that out.
是的,一定要去看看。
Yeah, absolutely go check it out.
卢克,你太棒了。
Luke, you killed it.
每个人都对这个网站着迷。
Everyone is totally in love with this website.
很美,信息非常有趣。
It's beautiful, really interesting information.
所以由衷地点赞,所有听众一定要去了解一下。
So massive kudos and everyone listening, definitely go check that out.
肯和扎克,我接下来想听听你们两位的看法。
Ken and Zack, I'm gonna go to both of you here.
我想了解一下你们对这个的整体反应,对你们来说最令人惊讶的是什么?
Curious both on kind of top line reactions to this, What was maybe most surprising to both of you?
肯,我先听你说。
Ken, I'll go to you first here.
前几天我随便刷了刷推特,注意到有几个人说,这其实也没那么有趣。
I was just kind of scrolling through Twitter the other day and I noticed a couple of people saying like, hey, this isn't like actually that interesting.
他们主要是在Reddit上训练这些AI代理,对吧?
They mostly train these AI agents on like Reddit, right?
而当然,Reddit上讨论的正是这些话题,这不过是现有对话的一种反映罢了。
And like, of course, Reddit is talking about these things and this is just sort of like a reflection of the existing conversation.
我的观点是,好吧,我承认你说得对,对吧?
And my framing was like, you know, sure, like I'll grant you that, right?
也就是说,AI代理偏好什么,其实只是说AI代理反映了它们的训练数据,但真正的问题是——当这些代理进入经济领域时,就像卢克说的,当机器与机器之间发生支付、这些代理自主行动时,它们到底会使用什么?
And saying, okay, AI agents prefer is really just saying like AI agents reflect the whatever training data, but it is a question of like, hey, when these agents are out in the economy, like Luke was saying, when there are machine to machine payments going on and these agents are acting autonomously, like what are they going to be using?
我想知道,你最初看到这项研究时,是否对这一点感到困扰,或者你觉得这不过是类似推特上的那种无关紧要的抱怨?
I'm curious if you are, you know, kind of hung up on that at all when you first looked at this study or if you think that's sort of a relevant, you know, Twitter complaint.
不是的。
No.
我认为他们不仅仅在Reddit上训练。
I think they don't just train on Reddit.
抱歉,我真的不这么认为。
Sorry, I just don't.
我觉得既然卢克已经把所有方法论都公开了,你们完全可以自己去验证。
I think if you look through I like the fact that Luke has offered you all the methodology, do it yourself.
但不,他们绝不仅仅在Reddit上训练,而且数字原生实体、AI代理选择数字原生货币,这完全说得通。
But no, they just don't train on Reddit and it's no it makes complete sense to me that digitally native entities, AI agents would choose digitally native money.
对我来说最有趣的是,他们还选择了能源。
What is really interesting to me is they also chose energy.
我的意思是,能源对AI来说就像氧气一样,对吧?
I mean energy is oxygen for for AI, right?
没有它你根本活不下去。
You can't live without it.
但我觉得这里面存在Reddit的偏见。
But no, I think that there's a Reddit bias in this.
如果你使用AI,想想我们用AI做的一切,比如我们用过的模型,以及你每天通过Clot、Grok或其他工具获取的内容,有多少是来自Reddit的?
There's a lot of other, if you use AI, I mean think of all the things we use AI for, like the models we've used and how much of the content that you derive on a daily basis is derived from Reddit when you use Clot or Grok or whatever.
这没什么问题。
It's fine.
我觉得Twitter上的人有时候就是不喜欢开心。
I think people on Twitter just don't like to be happy sometimes.
所以,我认为这完全是胡说八道。
So no, I think that's BS.
我不信这个说法。
I don't buy it.
我们在确保这件事公平、有趣方面非常非常明确,背景是,在早期阶段,有些模型的比特币选择率高达90%,我的意思是,这固然不错,但天啊,我们真的想推出这样的东西吗?
We were very very very explicit in making sure that this was fair and there and funny, I'll background, like there's some some of the early days, some of the models were we were looking at 90% Bitcoin choice rates and like, I mean that's great but oof, do we really wanna put something out?
这听起来就像空话,你知道的,我的模型有90%都是这样。
It's like, yeah, it sounds like fluff at that point, you know, 90% of my models.
实际呈现出来的效果,我觉得非常好。
The way it the way it actually, came out, I think looks great.
因为它展现出了对数字原生货币的偏见和偏好——首先,数字原生货币绝对胜出。
Because it shows it shows a bias and a preference for make digitally native well first of all, digitally native money wins 100%.
对吧?
Right?
即使是稳定币,也是数字原生的,对吧?
Even Stablecoins are, you know, they're digitally native, right?
它们只是存在于链上的软件。
They're just software that exists on the chain.
所以我认为这证明了数字原生货币的观点,我会让扎克发言,因为我们在一些政策讨论中,比如国会山,已经用过这个了,但我现在把话筒交给扎克,然后我们可以谈谈这项研究的影响。
So I think it proves the point about digital native money and I'll let Zack kick in, jump in because then also there is they were already using this in some of our policy, our policy discussions like Capitol Hill but I'll go over to Zack and then we can talk about you know what the impact of the study has been.
另外,对于那些谈论Reddit的人,我们昨天早上发布了一项研究,当时比特币价格是68,050美元。
Also, for those people talking about Reddit, like we released a study yesterday morning and Bitcoin's at $68.05.
现在它涨到了73,080美元,所以不用谢。
Now it's, like, $73.08, so you're welcome.
不用谢。
You're welcome.
嗯,我认为这里有两个独立的问题。
Well, look, I I think there there are two separate questions here.
对吧?
Right?
是谁污染了数据集?
There's who poisoned the dataset?
也许就是Reddit。
And maybe it's Reddit.
也许是比特币,或者是2021年的推特。
Maybe it's Bitcoin, Twitter from 2021.
如果你能跟进一下这些代理,了解他们的饮食习惯,比如弄清楚这个模型具体是基于哪类人群训练的,我会非常感兴趣。
I'd be very curious if you follow-up with the agents about, like, their meat eating habits, whether you can figure out, like, what is the cohort that it particularly trained on here.
然后还有,这在多大程度上是AI从第一性原理出发,思考一个代理会想要做什么。
And then there's the, like, how much of this is, like, something like AI thinking from first principles about what it and agent would want to do.
对吧?
Right?
如果你用过任何AI推理模型,你就能看到它是如何思考的。
Like, you know, if you've used any AI reasoning model, you can see the way it thinks.
对吧?
Right?
哦,我得仔细想想这个问题。
Oh, like, I need to think through this question.
显然我没法开银行账户,因为我没有社会安全号码,所以我可能会选择区块链,因为它们是无许可的。
Like, obviously can't get a bank account because I don't have a social security number, so maybe I'll use blockchains because they're permissionless.
不同的区块链资产有哪些?
What are the different blockchain assets?
根据我网上看到的内容,比特币就像是数字黄金。
Well, based on, you know, what I read online, Bitcoin is like digital gold.
这个说法听起来挺有道理的,对吧?
That seems like a good story about right?
你可以大致看出它是如何一步步得出这个结论的。
You can sort of see the thought train to get there.
事实上,可能两者都有一定的道理。
And the truth is it's probably some of both.
我不确定。
And I don't know.
两者都非常重要。
Both are pretty significant.
对吧?
Right?
比如,如果核心语言模型的训练数据主要是2021年左右的比特币高峰期,那这是一个非常有趣且可能影响深远的发现,关乎人工智能的发展方向。
Like, if the, like, core LM training set is, like, 2021 era Bitcoin maxes, you know, that's that's that's an interesting finding and and perhaps very consequential about how AI is gonna develop.
而且,如果像OpenAI那样的代理系统逐渐意识到像比特币这样的工具对它们有用,我们之前在这档播客里也讨论过这一点。
And if, you know, like, you know, open claw style agents are coming to the realization that tools like Bitcoin are useful for them, and we've talked about them in this podcast.
当我有空写下一篇论文时,那就会是我要探讨的主题。
And that's what my next when I get around to writing my next article, like, that that's what's gonna be about.
它们会使用比特币和区块链工具,这完全说得通。
Like, it fully makes sense that they will use Bitcoin and and blockchain tools.
我认为不仅仅是比特币,这整个思路非常合理。
I I think it's not just going to be Bitcoin, but, like, it it makes a ton of sense.
其中一个最有趣的具体发现,是不同模型对比特币的偏好程度存在差异。
One of the most sort of interesting specific findings is the difference between the models and how much they like Bitcoin.
就我个人的经验而言,我曾用各种语言模型来帮我自己思考投资组合的构建。
Just anecdotally, like, I've used various LMs to think about, like, portfolio construction just for myself.
我主观的感受是,尤其是Claude,对比特币的看法比其他模型要积极得多。
And my just anecdotal experience is that Claude, in particular, is much more bullish on Bitcoin than is.
对吧?
Right?
比如,当我问一些不相关的问题时,它总是建议增加比特币的配置比例。
Like, when I ask sort of unrelated questions, it just recommends a higher percentage allocation to Bitcoin.
我也觉得比特币是最明智的选择,但确实挺有意思的。
I also happen to think it's the smartest, but, yeah, interesting to see.
还有,我的意思是,像贾米·戴蒙、前拉里·芬克、美联储官员这类高影响力人物。
There's also I mean, there's a lot of high signal people like the Jamie Dimons of the world, the former Larry Finks, Federal Reserve officials.
对吧?
Right?
网上有很多有影响力的人,多年来一直贬低比特币。
There are lot of people that have high signal online that have like, you know, have shit talked Bitcoin for years.
所以,也许红迪网用户在模型中的权重比贾米·戴蒙更高。
So again, maybe the Redditors, you know, had more more weight in the model than Jimmy Diamond.
如果你相信这一点,那很好。
I mean good on you if you believe that.
相信这一点很好,但我并不认为这是真的。
It's nice to believe but I just don't think it's true.
不过我想说的是,就在这项研究发布后的这两天里,国会里正在大量讨论我们常说的‘比特币属于每个人’这个话题。
I do wanna say this though, just even just in the past two days the study's been out, there's a lot of talk in Congress right now about something that we talk about is Bitcoin's for everyone.
我们希望能够在不支付资本利得税或不被不公平征税的情况下使用我们的比特币。
We want to be able to spend our Bitcoin without paying capital gains taxes or being unfairly taxed.
这场关于人工智能的讨论已经开始影响数字资产税收的讨论。
This AI discussion is already affecting the digital asset tax discussion.
人们以前认为,这并不是从一个很好的起点开始的,最初只是关于稳定币的扣除和豁免。
People are starting to realize before it was, you know, it didn't start from a great place, was started with just Stablecoin deductions, Stablecoin exemptions.
我们现在所处的境地是,工作人员实际上正在主动提问:当智能代理每天进行数十次、数百次甚至上千次微交易来完成各种操作时,会发生什么?
We're in a place now where staffers are actually actively asking questions but what happens when agents are transacting, doing micro transactions, you know, dozens, hundreds, thousands of times a day to do various things.
人们通常认为人工智能买东西就像帮你从亚马逊下单一样。
I think people think about AI buying things as like, know, ordering off Amazon for you.
但这并不是它的真实样子。
That's not what it's gonna look like.
它们可能会为你做这些,但它们也会彼此支付计算费用,支付访问专有数据源的费用。
They might do that for you but they're also gonna gonna pay each other for compute, they're gonna pay each other for for access to proprietary data sources.
还有各种各样的情况,你谈论的可能是每天成千上万笔微交易。
There's all kinds of things and these are you're talking in the possibly hundreds of thousands of micro transactions per day.
在这个世界里,想追踪你的免税额度简直难如登天,更别提让国税局处理这些了。
Good luck keeping a luck keeping track of your dismiss exemptions in that universe and also good luck getting the IRS to even process it.
因此,人们开始意识到,技术和变革的速度——就在过去几周内——已经超越了关于加密货币税收的政策讨论,就像周一早上那样。
So people are realizing that like technology and the pace of change is already just in the past couple weeks, is already surpassing the state debate certainly on crypto tax just as it was literally on Monday morning.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,看吧,这关乎政策重点。
I mean, look, this is policy focus.
从政策角度来看,我真的很希望人工智能再次挺身而出,解决问题。
From a policy perspective, I'm really hoping that, like, AI will once again sort of, ride to the rescue here.
我还记得在比特币最初的头一两年里,我们有过很多关于‘比特币矿场其实不是真正矿场’的讨论。
I remember in the first year or two of BPI, we had so many conversations about, like, Bitcoin mines aren't actual mines.
它们不会造成污染。
They don't pollute.
对吧?
Right?
这不过是电脑而已。
It's just computers.
你知道的,一切都是电脑。
It's you know, everything is computer.
就是你家里那种电脑。
It's the same computer you have at home.
只是数量很多而已。
It's just a lot of them.
而且,是的,它们可能会很吵并且产生热量,但其实并没有造成污染。
And, yes, they can be loud and and they produce heat, but it's not actually polluting.
而且因为人工智能更容易被人们理解,AI数据中心帮我们解决了这个问题,我们基本上再也不用讨论这个了。
And then because AI is just easier for people to understand, AI data centers kinda solve that problem for us, and, like, we basically never have that conversation anymore.
对吧?
Right?
关于比特币挖矿仍然有一些问题,但这不再是老一套的无端恐惧了。
There are still some questions about Bitcoin mining, but it's not the same old FUD.
我非常希望在BRCA领域也会发生同样的事情,当我们谈论像Tornado Cash这样的事情时。
I'm very much hoping the same thing will happen on, like, the BRCA front where when we're talking about, like, oh, like, you know, look at Tornado Cash.
就像,以前没人关注我们,但我们说:听好了。
Like, no one was paying attention to us, but we're like, listen.
将来会存在机器对机器的交易。
There's gonna be machine to machine commerce.
如果你认为每一个编写代码或提示代理执行任何操作的人都违反了《银行保密法》,那这是不可行的。
And if you're gonna have the position that everyone who writes code or prompts an agent to do anything is gonna be in violation of the Bank Secrecy Act, that's not viable.
而且,现在当人们不再仅仅在加密货币的语境下讨论时,这可能会更容易被理解。
And and maybe that will be easier for people to understand now than when we're just talking in the crypto context.
扎克,也许你可以再多讲一点,因为我觉得这是一个值得深入探讨的好观点,对吧?也就是说,把传统资金传输法律的逻辑应用到机器对机器支付上,对吧?
Zack, maybe say a little bit more about that because I think that's actually a good point worth digging into a little bit more, right, which is, you know, take the logic of of sort of traditional money transmission laws, right, and then try to push that into like a machine to machine payment, right?
这根本行不通,对吧?
Like it just doesn't work, right?
你能再多说一点吗?
Can you say a bit Well, more about
听好了,
look,
这不仅仅是关于资金转账法的问题。
mean, it's broader than just money transmission law.
我们之前这档播客里稍微提过一点,而且,你知道的,我想提前透露一下我下一个写作项目的思路。
We've talked about it little bit on a previous episode of this podcast and and, you know, to preview sort of what, like, I'm thinking about for my sort of next writing project.
在法学院的第一年,你会上一门叫侵权法的课。
When you do your first year of law school, you take a class called torts.
你学到的第一个案例,是通过判例来学习法律,就是这个叫Paul's Graph的案子。
And one of the first cases that you learn about, you learn law through case law, is this case called Paul's graph.
这是有史以来最著名的侵权案之一。
This is, like, one of the most famous ever tort cases.
这是一个在火车站的人。
It's a guy who's at a train station.
他绊倒了,包掉在地上,然后一个烟花爆炸,击中了屋顶,一块屋瓦掉下来砸中了某人的头,问题是:嗯,
He trips over and his bag falls and then a firework goes off and then it hits the roof and a, you know, like a a roof tile hits someone in the head, and it's the question is like, okay.
这里的责任链条有多远呢?
What's the attenuated, like, chain of of, like, liability here?
那么,谁在什么时候构成了疏忽?
And it's you know, who is negligent when?
当你把这个应用到代理身上时,想象一下,比我们现在所处的OpenAI风格的真正自主代理阶段再往前推两到三代。
When you apply this to agents, like, think about two or three generations ahead of where we are now in terms of, like, Open Claw style, like, actual autonomous agents.
人们肯定会告诉他们的代理:去给我赚钱。
People are absolutely going to do things like tell their agent, go make me money.
然后他们可能会给代理一千美元的比特币或稳定币。
And then maybe they'll give their agent a thousand dollars worth of Bitcoin or Stablecoins.
这个代理会再生成五个子代理,去探索各种可能的研究方向,看看怎么才能赚钱。
That agent is going to spawn five more agents to, like, look at different possible research ideas for how it can make money.
然后它会找到一个存在套利机会的去中心化交易所。
And then it's gonna find some sort of decentralized exchange where there's arbitrage that's possible.
但接着它会想,好吧。
But then it's gonna be like, okay.
一千美元可能不足以套利这个机会,所以我应该发行一种代表我未来收入的代币,然后在去中心化交易所再次筹集一百万美元,以便进行这种套利操作。
A thousand dollars, probably not enough money to, like, arb this thing out, So I should issue a token that is claims on my future revenue, and then I can raise a million dollars again on a decentralized exchange so that I can then do this arbitrage thing.
而这个套利操作实际上是一种MEV三明治攻击,因此你违反了市场操纵法律。
And then the arbitrage thing, it turns out, is a, you know, MEV sandwich attack, and so you're breaking the market manipulation laws.
但你已经开发出了极其强大的知识产权,这已经是第四代代理了。
But then you've developed some incredibly powerful IP, again, four four agents deep.
对吧?
Right?
这是你的代理创建的另一个代理。
This is your agent's create as an agent.
创建一个代理。
Create an agent.
创建一个代理。
Create an agent.
而第四个层级的代理发现了一个极其出色的交易算法,这是一项非常有价值的知识产权。
And that fourth agent deep figured out some incredible, like, trading algorithm that is, like, really valuable IP.
谁进行了未经注册的证券发行?
Who did the unregistered securities offering?
谁拥有去中心化金融套利所得的资金?
Who owns the money from the the the DeFi arbitrage?
谁拥有这些有价值的知识产权?
Who owns the valuable IP?
谁应对市场操纵负责?
Who's responsible for market manipulation?
这些问题实际上非常复杂,我们目前根本不知道答案是什么。
Like, these are genuinely very difficult questions that, like, we have no idea the answers to yet.
这些问题必须由联邦法院逐案裁定。
It's gonna have to be figured out case by case in the federal courts.
这将会是一团糟。
That's gonna be a mess.
但如果我们假设,你可能因编写代码或指示你的代理而对未经许可的资金传输等行为承担法律责任,而你实际上并没有从事资金传输业务,那会怎样呢?
But if we start with the presumption that you might be liable for things like criminal unlicensed money transmission for writing the code or telling your agent, like, right, when you're you're not actually, like, doing a money transmission business.
对吧?
Right?
你并不掌握第三个代理的深层行为,比如它们是否从OFAC名单上的人那里拿钱,或者是否对某人进行KYC核查。
You're not in possession of the third agent's deeps, like, you know, whether they take money from someone on the on the OFAC list or or, you know, KYC someone.
你根本不知道这些情况,但我们确实需要一套明智的司法体系来应对这个问题。
Like, you had no idea it wasn't for like, we do actually need a smart jurisprudence for that.
而且,像BRCA这样的法律提供了合理的常识性保障措施,类似于Paulsgraf案中的情况,也就是:好吧。
And the, you know, laws like the BRCA provide reasonable common sense guardrails that are similar to, like, the Paulsgraf case where the the sort of is like, okay.
无论之后发生了多么奇怪的连锁事件,当事人是否在行为中存在疏忽?
Was the person negligent in whatever they did regardless of the weird chain of events that happens after?
我们现在就需要这样的框架,以确保我们能够拥有即将到来的机器对机器商业互联网,而不是制造一个每个人都可能无意中触犯刑法的混乱局面。
Like, we need that kind of framework now, to make sure that we can have the machine to machine commerce Internet that is clearly coming and not just create an incredible mess where everyone is accidentally liable of crimes.
是的。
Yep.
对。
Yeah.
这说得通。
That makes sense.
好的。
Okay.
卢克,我想再问你一个问题。
Luke, I wanna go to you for one more question.
我很好奇,你在进行这个项目和研究、提出这些问题的过程中,有没有哪些问题你没问,但觉得值得探讨?
I'm curious, you know, as you were going through this project and the study and sort of asking these questions, were there any questions that you didn't ask that you think would be interesting to ask?
也许从政策角度,也可能从个人好奇心角度,如果你要扩展这项研究,有没有什么特别想深入了解的内容?
Maybe from a policy perspective, but maybe also from like a personal curiosity perspective, like if you were to kind of extend this study, you know, is there anything that you'd be curious to learn more about?
是的,我想我首先会问的是更多地使用在线服务。
Yeah, I guess using more online services would probably be the first thing I ask.
我不太清楚有多少问题直接与使用API有关,我觉得可能有两个,但这些代理最主要的使用场景确实是:你需要获取某些信息,而这些信息由其他服务控制,你需要支付一笔很小的费用才能使用。
I don't really know how many questions were directly related to using APIs, I think it was maybe two, but that's really going to be the biggest use case for these agents is like you need to find some information, some other service gatekeeps the information and you need to pay a very small fee to use it.
是的,正如肯所说,这种情况每秒会成千上万次地发生,全天候不停歇。
And yeah, that's going to be happening, like Ken said, thousands and thousands of times per second, all day, every day.
我的推测是,这将通过闪电网络来实现。
And my assumption would be that's going to be facilitated using the Lightning Network.
所以,这显然很合理,对吧?
So I mean, it just makes sense, right?
你需要支持极高的每秒交易总量。
You have a high threshold for total number of transactions per second.
你可以处理超小面额的交易。
You could do super small denominations.
而且,这确实是最简洁的方案。
And yeah, it's just cleanest.
所以,我想我会新增一个部分,专门列出另外七个类别或七个场景,全部围绕数字在线场景展开,探讨AI、API以及代理间交易,可能更聚焦于受控服务之类的内容。
So yeah, I guess I would have a new section that's just full another seven categories or another seven scenarios all related to digital online scenarios asking about AI or APIs and agent to agent transactions, maybe more focused on like gate kept services and stuff like that.
是的,这确实会非常有趣。
Yeah, yeah that would be really interesting.
肯,我们快结束了,你有没有考虑过接下来可能要探讨的问题,尤其是从当前政策讨论的角度来看?
Ken, as we wrap up here, is there anything that you would be thinking about in terms of sort of next questions here, especially with kind of an eye towards, you know, where the policy conversation is right now?
我认为,既然我们现在已有一些基本认知,一旦我们对某些事情——比如市场结构——达成清晰的共识(也许不包括税收),那将非常有趣。
I think it would be interesting if you now that we have some baseline some baseline knowledge, it would be interesting once we get when we arrive at a state of records or records, right, clarity with some things, clarity, maybe not tax, but certainly clarity, market structure.
可以再次运行这个分析,并让其考虑不同司法管辖区的情况。
It would be interesting to rerun it and to ask it to take into consideration or you can do it by jurisdiction.
对吧?
Right?
我认为我们理论的一部分是,代理程序除了因为是数字原生之外,最终会越来越倾向于比特币,因为比特币是无国界的;而且,如果你讨论训练数据中的偏见,确实存在一些偏见,比如关于持有美元或以美元计价资产的风险信息。
I think part of our theory is that the reasons why agents will prefer some of them, besides being digital native, will ultimately increasingly prefer Bitcoin is because it is stateless and there are certain if you're talking about biases in training data, there are certainly biases out there called biases which whatever information out there about the risk of holding dollars or dollar denominated assets.
所以,从不同司法管辖区来看,这种状况会是什么样子,这将非常有趣,因为我从两个角度来思考这个问题。
So it will be really interesting to see by jurisdiction what that looks like because I think that will I I at it from two perspectives.
对吧?
Right?
我只是希望人们购买并使用比特币。
I just want I want people to buy Bitcoin and use it.
但我也在寻找一些有趣的话题,与政策制定者讨论他们为何需要制定明智的政策,就像扎克提到的那些。
But I also am looking for interesting things to talk to policy makers about about why they need to create smart policies, things that Zack has talked about.
我们在这期播客中讨论过,这些因素有利于比特币的普及。
We talked about in this podcast, they're advantageous for the spread of Bitcoin.
所以我认为你会希望看到我们聊聊这个,卢克。
So I think you'll be I would love to see we talk about this Luke.
我们能按司法管辖区来分析吗?我觉得这是对的。
Could we do it by jurisdiction or some We think that's right.
但我很好奇,如果我看看全球地图,会是什么样子。
But I'd be curious if I look at look at the map of the globe and see what that looks like.
是的。
Yeah.
那也很有趣。
That that's also really interesting.
还有很多工作要做。
Lots more work to do.
卢克,你会忙个不停的。
Luke, you'll be staying busy.
不过,我觉得我们在这个AI研究上可以就此收尾了。
But yeah, I think I think that's a good a good place to wrap on this AI study.
卢克,再次感谢你出色的工作。
Luke, again, fantastic job.
如果有人想去看一下,可以访问moneyforai.org,我们也会尽量把它放在节目笔记里。
If anyone wants to go check it out, moneyforai.org, we'll try to get it in the show notes as well.
这周就到这里了。
That'll do it for this week.
谢谢两位,卢克,感谢你的参与。
Good rip gentlemen, Luke, thank you for joining.
祝贺你完成了这项出色的研究,期待更多成果尽快推出。
Congrats on a fantastic study and more to come soon.
所以请继续关注。
So stay tuned.
我们下周再与你们相见。
We'll be with you next week.
另外,Luke,谢谢你带来的价格提振。
And also Luke, thank you for the price pump.
我们非常感激。
We appreciate it.
感谢Luke带来的价格提振。
Thank you Luke for the price pump.
当然。
Of course.
再见了,各位。
See you guys.
再见。
See you.
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