最高法院关税裁决，市场再陷贸易动荡

新闻在周末也不会停止。

The news doesn't stop on the weekends.

背景信息不断变化，

Context changes constantly,

而现在，彭博社是您掌握一切动态的最佳去处。

and now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all.

你好。

Hi.

我是大卫·古拉。

I'm David Gura.

每周六和周日，请收听全新的《彭博周末新闻》。

Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg this weekend.

我是克里斯蒂娜·拉菲尼。

I'm Christina Raffini.

我们将为您带来最新头条、深度分析和重磅访谈。

We'll bring you the latest headlines, in-depth analysis, and big interviews.

所有在你休息日触动你的故事。

All the stories that hit home on your days off.

我是丽莎·马特奥。

And I'm Lisa Mateo.

观看并收听本周末的彭博资讯，深入了解商业、生活方式、人物与文化方面的深刻对话。

Watch and listen to Bloomberg this weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people, and culture.

在周六早晨，我们会将上周的事件置于背景中审视，分析市场和世界发生了什么。

On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world.

而在周日，我们会采访记者、专栏作家和关键政治人物，为你迎接

Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists, and key political figures to prepare you for the

即将到来的一周做好准备。

week ahead.

从你一醒来就开始观看我们，并在你周末的任何行程中都带着我们。

Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you.

在彭博电视上观看我们。

Watch us on Bloomberg Television.

在Bloomberg广播收听，通过Bloomberg Business应用在线直播，或收听播客。

Listen on Bloomberg Radio, stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app, or listen to the podcast.

这就是本周末的Bloomberg节目，2月28日起，每周六和周日早上7点（东部时间）播出。

That's Bloomberg this weekend, Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7AM eastern on February 28.

让Bloomberg电视、广播和您收听播客的任何平台都成为您周末日常的一部分。

Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television, radio, and wherever you get your podcasts.

Bloomberg音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

欢迎收听《晨间亚洲》播客。

Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast.

我是道格·克里纳。

I'm Doug Krisner.

特朗普总统在最高法院推翻了其依据紧急权力实施关税的法律依据后，迅速采取行动，出台了新的关税。

President Trump has moved quickly to impose new tariffs after the supreme court struck down the legal basis for his tariffs under emergency powers.

他依据1974年《贸易法》第122条实施了全球性关税。

He's put in place global tariffs under section one twenty two of the trade act of 1974.

因此，税率是15%，但这些关税仅限于150天内有效。

So the rate is 15%, but these tariffs are limited to a hundred and fifty days.

这凸显了关税政策在总统议程中的核心地位。

Kind of underscores just how central tariff policy is to the president's agenda.

为了更深入地了解，我邀请了卡罗尔·施莱费尔。

For a closer look, I'm joined by Carol Schleife.

卡罗尔是摩根大通私人财富的首席市场策略师。

Carol is the chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth.

卡罗尔从洛杉矶加入我们。

Carol joins us from Los Angeles.

感谢您的到来。

Thank you for being here.

我认为我们可以同意，最高法院的决定并不令人意外，但我现在想知道这种不确定性达到了什么程度。

I think we can agree that the decision by the supreme court wasn't surprising, but I'm wondering about the level of uncertainty now.

您有这种感觉吗？

Do you have a sense of that?

其中一部分取决于企业的规模。

A piece of it depends on the size of business.

中小企业正一头雾水，不知该如何应对，因为一开始是10%，然后变成了15%。

The small and medium sized businesses are scratching their head trying to figure out what to do because first we had 10%, then we had 15%.

这些关税仅持续一百五十天，实际上会在国会休会当天到期。

It's only good for one hundred and fifty days and actually it expires the day that congress goes on recess.

一方面，这些中小企业如果能获得一些退税将大大受益，尤其是如果政府随后表示‘好的，我们会支付部分退税’，这样他们就有机会将部分退税返还给客户，从而维持价格稳定或避免涨价，因为他们现在可能不得不提价。

On the one hand, you know, these small and medium sized businesses would benefit greatly from being able to get some refund, especially if the administration would would turn around and say, okay, we'll pay some refund because that gives them the opportunity then to turn around and pass some of that refund back to clients in terms of either holding price steady or not increasing them because they're at the point where they might have to increase them.

我认为，简而言之，这在短期内确实增加了不确定性。

I think bottom line, it does increase the uncertainty in the short run here.

我认为，最初企业们感到相当欣慰——虽然‘欣慰’这个词可能不太准确，但确实感到安心，因为最高法院明确表示，全国性的关税是不可行的。

I think initially, businesses were pretty, relieved is probably the wrong word, but gratified if you will that the Supreme Court did come down and say, look, countrywide tariffs are are not doable.

但这使得政府不得不去寻找其他特定行业作为替代目标，而我们也一直强调，正如所有人一直所说的那样，特朗普总统非常青睐关税，这一立场他已经坚持了几十年。

But it does make the administration go search out other particular industries and and such in terms of it does have alternative methods and and we know we've said all along as everybody has said all along that President Trump really likes tariffs and he's been on that theme for decades.

因此，我们仍将面临一定程度的关税政策。

And so, we're going to have some level of tariffs that goes on.

但这对企业来说确实更加困难了。

But it really is tougher for businesses.

我原本希望他们能获得更多的明确性。

I was hopeful that they'd get a little more clarity.

但话虽如此，我们仍需牢记，最大的不确定性可能出现在四月。

But all of that said, it's really still important to remember that, you know, maximum uncertainty was probably April.

即便如此，企业们的表现依然不错。

And yet, companies did okay anyway.

当你看GDP数据和盈利表现时，会发现它们实际上表现得比‘不错’还要好。

They they actually did better than okay when you look at GDP and where earnings came in and and broadly that way.

但确实，如果企业能有一些确定性，那就更好了。

But, yeah, it would be nice for business if they had some level of of certainty.

甚至连印度都在反制，表示要重新评估，再决定是否继续推进贸易谈判。

You've even got countries pushing back now in terms of India stepping back and saying that they're gonna reassess things before before coming to do trade negotiate to finish up the trade negotiations.

我们拭目以待。

So we'll see.

是的。

Yeah.

欧洲也是如此。

The same is true for Europe.

欧盟首席贸易官员基本表示，他将提议暂缓批准与美国的贸易协议，直到特朗普政府提供一些明确性。

The EU's top trade chief basically saying that he will propose freezing the ratification of the the trade deal with The US until the Trump administration kind of offers some clarity.

不过，我一直在想一件事，因为如果你仔细看法院的判决，实际上涉及的是国会的权力。

One of the things that I'm wondering about though, because if you look at what the court had to say in its decision, the power of congress really is at issue here.

显然，如果关税是一种税收，那这正是国会的职权范围。

And, obviously, if a tariff is a tax, then that is the purview of Congress.

现在我们知道，国情咨文将于周二发表，我想知道你认为特朗普是否会利用这个机会施压国会，将有关关税的某些措施以更具威慑力且更持久的方式立法化。

Now we know we have the State of the Union coming up Tuesday, and I'm wondering whether you think that Trump will use this as an opportunity to pressure congress into codifying something with respect to tariffs that has more of a bite and maybe could be more lasting.

我认为他会尝试。

I think he'll try.

我不确定他会非常成功，尤其是因为你已经看到国会开始对此表示反对，比如众议院就对加拿大关税等问题发表了评论。

I'm not certain I would put it as very successful, especially because you've already had you know, you've you've had congress start to push back on some of that with the house making the commentary around the Canadian tariffs and things like that.

而且我认为许多国会议员正在听取选民的意见，选民们并不喜欢关税。

And because I think a lot of the congress folks are hearing from their constituents that they don't like tariffs.

他们明白，从长远来看，关税是对个人的打击。

They understand that tariffs in the long run are attacks on individuals.

即使供应商部分承担了关税成本，因为他们已经通过一些交易进行了调整，但总体而言，无论你查看谁的数据，都知道主要承担关税的是消费者或美国企业——不仅仅是上周纽约联储的分析，还有多项其他研究都表明了这一点。

Even if the suppliers pay have paid part of it because they've worked some of these deals through, by and large, no matter who you look at, you know, there have been not just the New York Fed's analysis last week, but there have been multiple other analysis that show the bulk of who pays it is the consumer and or the American, The US business.

这些民众正在向他们的国会议员表达：绝不要立法赋予总统更多征税权力。

And those folks are speaking to their congress people saying, don't you dare codify anything that gives the president power to tax more.

所以我认为他会尝试，而且我确信他一定会这么做。

So I think he can try and I'm sure he will.

但我认为这在国会里不会走得太远。

But, I'm not sure it'll go very far with in congress.

也许我们可以聊聊收益情况。

Maybe we can talk a little bit about earnings.

本周有一些关键的财报即将公布。

We've got, some key results due this week.

英伟达排在名单的最前面。

NVIDIA, right at the top of the list.

显然，你一直关注着人工智能对市场，特别是财富管理、软件等领域的颠覆性叙事。

Obviously, you've been tracking a lot of the the narrative around AI disruption in markets, particularly in certain sectors like wealth management, software, obviously, a big one.

你现在如何看待英伟达这家公司？它能反映出我们当前处于人工智能周期的哪个阶段？

Where are you right now in looking at a company like NVIDIA and what it may say about where we are in this AI cycle right now?

关于人工智能，我认为有几点，我们已经连续几个季度都在说，迟早支出会放缓，因为很多人忘了半导体是一个周期性行业。

Well, I think a couple things on AI, and we've been saying this for many quarters that, you know, sooner or later, the spend was going to need to taper because, I mean, a lot of people forget semiconductors are a cyclical industry.

人们表现得好像它不是周期性的，以为是长期趋势，但几十年来，半导体一直都是一个周期性行业。

I mean, people are acting like they're not, like they're long term, but for decades, semiconductors have been a cyclical industry.

所以迟早，这种支出会减少。

So sooner or later, that's going to taper.

另一方面，我这周初参加了在佛罗里达州举行的一场女性制造业会议，一年前的同一时间我也参加过同样的会议，当时我就深刻感受到，许多制造公司在部署人工智能、机器人和其他技术方面已经取得了巨大进展。

On the other hand, I actually, I started the week at a women in manufacturing conference in Florida and I went to the same conference a year ago at in the same timing and I was really struck at how far along many of these manufacturing companies are in deploying AI, robotics, lots of other things.

这不仅仅是人工智能，还包括工厂里的自动驾驶车辆。

It's not just AI, it's also autonomous vehicles in the factories.

工厂里还有机器人，而且它们在部署这些技术方面已经非常领先。

It's robotics in the factories, and they're very far along in deploying that.

因此，我认为这有助于许多不同的应用场景，而不仅仅局限于人工智能数据中心的建设。

And so I think that helps a lot of different use cases and things so that it's not just about the AI data center build.

这不仅仅关乎英伟达的财报，更关乎更广泛的应用，以及我们此前就已经存在的更强生产力现在开始加速，未来还可能继续加速。

It's not just about NVIDIA's earnings, it's about broader use and the fact that we've got stronger productivity that predates a lot of this, but is really starting to accelerate and there's a chance that you continue to see even more of that.

不过话说回来，我们并不认为这会完全消失。

Now that said, we don't think it's going to do away.

像财富管理、保险或房地产等受监管行业，不可能简单地抛弃所有监管流程，就在本周末开始全面使用ChatGPT。

It's not like regulated industries like wealth management or insurance or real estate or anything else can just ditch all of their regulated processes and start deploying ChatGPT by the end of the week.

因为我们不能把客户信息上传到这些系统中。

Because it's not like we can upload client information into those things.

还有很多事情需要完成。

There's a lot of stuff that has to happen.

所以，我认为AI作为赋能工具而非替代人力，是一个关键的主题。

And so, I think AI as an amplifier and not a job replacer is is a key thematic that comes to.

这些公司正在寻找愿意亲自动手、研究如何利用AI优化现有流程的员工。

These companies are looking for employees who will roll up their sleeves, figure out how to use AI to make existing processes better.

这要求员工以不同的方式思考和行动，可能需要具备不同的技能，更愿意投入战略思考和客户服务等工作。

It requires employees to think differently and behave differently and maybe have a different set of skill sets where they're willing to lean into a lot more strategic thinking, a lot a lot of client service sorts of things.

我认为AI并不会取代员工。

There's it I I think AI doesn't replace employees.

它放大了员工的效能，或许也改变了他们工作的性质。

It amplifies what they do and maybe changes the tenor of what they do.

你知道，你刚才描述的这些情况，在中国已经持续很长时间了。

You know, what you just described there has been happening in China for for quite some time.

在让你走之前，卡罗尔，我想问问关于海外机会的事。

Before I let you go, Carol, I wanna ask about opportunities offshore.

我知道我们一开始谈的是美国的关税政策，但我很好奇，你是否在亚太地区看到了一些海外机会？

I know we started the conversation with reference to this US tariff policy, but I'm I'm wondering whether you're seeing opportunities offshore particularly in the Asia Pacific.

是的。

Yeah.

实际上，我们在全球各地都有机会，而且你确实看到国际股市去年的表现超过了美国市场。

We are all around the globe actually and in terms of you did have international borces that outperformed The US markets last year.

全球股票指数ACWI连续第三年上涨超过20%。

You had ACWI up for over 20% for I think the third year running.

因此，机会很多，有趣的是，如果你看看世界银行和国际货币基金组织的数据，他们会告诉你，尽管美国出台了各种关税政策，去年全球贸易实际上还是增长了。

And so there are a lot of opportunities and it's interesting because if you look at like the World Bank and IMF numbers, they will tell you that global trade actually increased last year despite all of the the trade machinations going on with tariffs coming out of The US.

所以我认为这些机会仍在持续，因为在东南亚，日本最近的选举部分是基于增加财政支出的考量。

And so I think those opportunities continue, because in Southeast Asia, you've got, you know, Japan in the recent elections and part of that was predicated on increasing fiscal spend.

中国长期以来一直有传闻称将扩大国内财政政策，以重新激活其消费市场。

You've got China that's been rumored for ages to be increasing domestic fiscal policy to get their consumer markets rolling again.

全球各地的国防支出都在增加，包括日本在二战后达到了创纪录的水平。

You've got increased defense spend all around the globe, including, Japan at record levels post World War two.

还有德国。

You've got Germany.

因此，基础设施和整体支出都大幅增加。

So there there's a lot of infrastructure and spend in general.

贸易正在重新调整，这都是积极的，因为这意味着商业活动正在发生。

There's a lot of trade that's rearranging itself, and that's all constructive because it means business is happening.

这些活动发生在不同的地方。

It's happening in different places.

这对投资者来说更难追踪，但对主动型管理者以及非美国或全球型管理者、多空对冲基金来说，却是一个绝佳的环境。

It's more difficult for investors to keep track of, but it's a great environment for active managers and non US or global managers and long short hedge funds.

你得下功夫，但这个环境非常有利。

It's you gotta do the work, but it's a great environment for it.

好的，卡罗尔。

Okay, Carol.

我们就到这里吧。

We'll leave it there.

非常感谢你。

Thank you so very much.

卡罗尔·施莱夫是摩根大通私人财富的首席市场策略师，今天她在路上，从洛杉矶加入我们的《日出亚洲》播客。

Carol Schleif is the chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth on the road and joining us from Los Angeles today here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.

这里是特别探员雷格尔，特别探员布拉德利·霍尔。

This is special agent Regal, special agent Bradley Hall.

时间大约是上午11:15。

The time is approximately 11:15AM.

即将开始与张大和医生的自愿电话通话。

About to start consensual telephone telephone call with doctor Daiwa Zhang.

中国国家安全部是世界上最具神秘性和权力的情报机构之一。

China's Ministry of State Security is one of the most mysterious and powerful spy agencies in the world.

但在2017年，联邦调查局成功渗透了进去。

But in 2017, the FBI got inside.

等等。

Wait.

这是一个选择。

That's an option.

嘿。

Hey.

在我整个职业生涯中，我从未见过如此多的证据，我认为我们再也不会看到这么多证据了。

I've never seen that much evidence in my entire career, and I don't think we'll ever see that much evidence again.

我现在掌握了数太字节的中国国家安全部官员的资料，毫无疑问，他的生活细节尽在其中，这简直是稀有之极。

I now have several terabytes of an MSS officer, no doubt, no question of his life, and that's a unicorn.

这是一个关于国家安全部内部运作的故事，讲述了一名男子的野心与失误如何打开了其秘密宝库。

This is a story of the inner workings of the MSS, and how one man's ambition and mistakes opened its vault of secrets.

请于2月13日起在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或您常用的播客平台收听Bloomberg的《第六局》。

Listen to the sixth bureau from Bloomberg podcasts starting on February 13 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎回到《日出亚洲》播客。

Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast.

我是道格·克里纳。

I'm Doug Krisner.

正如你们所知，特朗普政府即使在最高法院推翻了依据紧急权力实施的关税法律依据后，仍维持着美国的关税政策。

So as you know, the Trump administration is keeping US tariffs in place even after the Supreme Court struck down the legal basis for those tariffs enacted under emergency powers.

因此，全球性关税现已生效。

So global tariffs are now in place.

这些关税是依据1974年《贸易法》第122条实施的。

They have been put there under section one twenty two of the trade act of 1974.

这一税率是15%。

That rate is 15%.

关键是。

Here's the thing.

这些关税的期限仅为150天。

These tariffs are limited to a hundred and fifty days.

与此同时，特朗普政府表示，与中国的、欧盟的、日本的以及韩国的贸易协议将继续有效。

Now at the same time, the Trump administration said that trade deals made with China, the EU, Japan, and South Korea will remain in place.

即便如此，欧洲贸易负责人表示，他将提议暂缓批准该贸易协议，直至特朗普政府明确其政策。

Even so, Europe's trade chief said he'll propose freezing the ratification of a trade deal until the Trump administration clarifies its policy.

与此同时，印度官员以类似理由推迟了本周与美国就达成临时贸易协议的谈判。

Meantime, in India, officials cited similar reasons for postponing talks in The US this week on finalizing an interim trade agreement.

那么，这对中国意味着什么？

So where does this leave China?

好吧，我们的对话将从与肖恩·斯坦的交谈开始。

Well, that's where we begin our conversation with Sean Stein.

肖恩是美中商业理事会的主席，他接受了彭博电视台主持人阿维莉尔·洪和谢丽·昂的采访。

Sean is president at the US China business council, and he spoke with Bloomberg TV host, Avril Hong and Sherry On.

我认为最重要的是，对中国来说，这实际上是一个小小的胜利。

I think the most important thing is that for China, this is really a bit of a win.

这是因为，根据总统设定的替代其IEPA关税的框架，可能实施的是10%或15%的全球附加税。

And that's because under the rubric that the president has set to replace his IEPA tariffs, it's potentially a 10% or a 15% global surcharge.

因此，总体而言，这意味着一旦这些附加税生效，大多数中国商品的总体关税率将低于之前水平。

So overall, what that means is it means that once those go into effect, then the overall tariff rate for most Chinese goods is lower than it was before.

与欧盟不同，欧盟此举造成了大量不确定性，而对中国而言，这意味着当前的条款比之前有利得多。

And so unlike with the EU where it creates a lot of uncertainty, in the case of China, it means that the the terms are now much more favorable to China than they were just before.

请想想这一举措的规模，如果附加税是10%，相比之前，这意味着每十亿美元的贸易额，相关关税将减少高达一千亿美元。

And remember, if you think about the magnitude of this, you know, if the surcharge is 10% compared to where it was before, that's, you know, potentially a $100,000,000,000 on a bill a $100,000,000 for every billion dollars of trade, that's affected.

因此，成本的降低幅度确实显著下降。

So the the cost reduction is really substantially lower.

所以这对中方来说是一次胜利。

So it's a it's a win for China.

考虑到这也会带来大量不确定性，他们会认为这是一次胜利吗？

Will they see it as a win given that also it causes a lot of uncertainty?

我的意思是，试图弄清楚这到底是10%的关税还是15%的关税，这与芬太尼关税、最惠国待遇以及其他国家的情况相比又如何呢？

I mean, just trying to decipher whether this is a 10% tariff or a 15% tariff, how does this, like, compare with fentanyl tariffs, most favored nations, and other countries as well?

好的。

Okay.

这是个很好的问题。

That's a great question.

与大多数国家不同，在最高法院裁决之前，中国面临的关税情况非常复杂。

So unlike most countries, the tariff situation on China before the supreme court ruling was really pretty complex.

他们有基础的最惠国税率，上调了2%。

They had the baseline MFN rate, which was up 2%.

他们还有来自特朗普1.0版本和拜登政府的第301条款关税，大约为25%。

They had the three zero one section three zero one tariff rates from Trump one point o and from the Biden administration which were about 25%.

此外，他们还有10%的芬太尼关税，以及现在的10%对等关税。

Then on top of that, they had 10% fentanyl tariffs and now 10% tariffs for reciprocal tariffs.

因此，由于最高法院的裁决而产生影响的部分，正是后两者。

So the part that's in play because the supreme court's ruling are just those last two.

即芬太尼关税和对等关税。

The fentanyl tariffs and the reciprocal tariffs.

所以，这两项关税如今已降至零。

So those today have fallen to zero.

但当它们根据第122条款重新实施新加征的关税时，无论是10%还是15%，相比之前都仍将是一个显著的降低。

But when they go into effect with the new surcharge under section 122, whether it's 10% or 15%, that's still gonna be a substantial reduction from where they were before.

所以最惠国税率不会改变。

So the MFN rate won't change.

301条款的税率也不会改变。

The three zero one rates won't change.

但一旦这些新关税在10%或15%的任何一种情况下生效，其他关税将会降低。

But the other tariffs will be lower once those go into effect under either scenario, 10% or 15%.

所以，是的，中国会将此视为一种胜利。

So, yeah, China will see that as a win.

而且正如你所指出的，最高法院推翻这些关税也可能意味着美国总统的谈判筹码减少了。

And to your point, I suppose, there's also the idea that the supreme court striking down these tariffs also means there's less leverage for the US president.

我的意思是，这对三月底到四月初两位领导人会面的格局意味着什么？

I mean, what does that mean for the contours of the gathering between the two leaders late March into early April?

这是一个非常重要的问题。

That is such an important question.

很高兴你问了这个问题。

I I'm glad you asked that.

在谈判中，筹码是否有效，关键在于一方是否比另一方拥有更多优势。

And so leverage in a negotiation only really matters if one side has got more leverage than the other side.

如果双方都拥有筹码，其效果就会变得非常模糊，往往会相互抵消。

If both sides have leverage, the effect is much more ambiguous or tends to cancel the other side out.

所以，你们可能还记得，去年解放日之后，美国单方面对中国加征关税，中国则采取了对等反制措施。

So where we've been is that you may remember that after liberation day last year when The US raised tariffs unilaterally on China, China responded tariff for tariff.

他们与美国针锋相对。

They went toe to toe with The United States.

正是这样，我们才陷入了一场升级的螺旋，出现了三位数的关税，而这对两国都没有好处。

And that's how we got into this escalatory spiral of, you know, of triple digit tariffs which didn't serve either country's interest.

然后你们可能还记得，尽管双方都摆出强硬姿态，但美国首先让步，主动邀请中国前往日内瓦会面，以降低这些关税。

And then you may remember that, you know, despite the posturing, The US blinked first and asked China to go meet them in Geneva so they could reduce those.

因此，自日内瓦以来，关税作为美国的谈判筹码，其效力已大幅削弱。

So ever since Geneva, tariffs have really lost most of their edge as leverage for The United States.

所以，如果你把这看作是2025年中美贸易战或特朗普2.0时代的第一场停火，那么这场战争的这一战线已经打成了僵局。

And so if you look at that as the first truce in the, you know, US China trade war of twenty twenty five or of Trump two point o, tariffs then that was a front on that war that was fought to a standstill.

然后，贸易战扩展到了其他领域，比如出口管制和制裁。

And then the trade war moved to other areas, things like export controls and sanctions.

在这种情况下，双方都展示了对对方可能具有重大影响力，且基本上陷入了僵局。

And this is a case where also both sides have demonstrated they've got potentially significant leverage over the other and they've largely fought to to a standstill.

最显著的是，中国打出了稀土牌，这不仅打击了美国的产业，也影响了全球产业。

Most notably, you know, China has has played the rare earths card, which not only hurt industry in The United States, but also around the world.

因此，这种情况是美国确实拥有优势，但中国也有反制手段。

And so this is a case where The US absolutely has leverage, but the Chinese have counter leverage.

这就为我们设定了一个在不到四十天内于北京举行的会晤，届时两位总统将无法再依赖这些杠杆。

So what that sets us up for is a meeting in Beijing in maybe less than forty days where the two presidents are not gonna be able to use that leverage.

这意味着，理想情况下，双方将不得不专注于对两国都有利的解决方案。

And that means, ideally, this will be a situation where both sides have to focus on what would be a win for both countries.

正如你之前所暗示的，对两国来说最大的胜利就是为商业和投资环境带来可预测性，让企业知道如何投资和规划。

And as you've, you know, implied previously, what would be the biggest win for both countries is to bring some predictability to the business and investment climate so companies know how to invest and they know how to plan.

过去一年里，我们一直面临持续的不稳定和不可预测性，这导致投资决策迟迟无法做出。

Where we've been for the last year has been the constant instability and unpredictability has meant that investment decisions have gone unmade.

这意味着自解放日以来，美国每月都在失去制造业工作岗位。

It's meant The US has lost manufacturing jobs every month since liberation day.

因此，这可能为中美关系带来亟需的稳定性。

So this potentially will bring a chance to bring, some much needed stability, into this, into this relationship.

这将是最重要的成果。

That'll be the biggest outcome.

特朗普政府甚至尚未公布将有哪些商界人士随行前往中国。

The Trump administration has not necessarily even said who he's taking from the business community to China.

那么，政府为这次访华之行准备得如何？您的会员希望看到哪些成果，以使两国关系更加确定？

So how well is the administration preparing for that state visit into Beijing, and what would your members like to see being achieved in order to bring some more certainty to the relationship?

是的。

Yeah.

这令人震惊。

This has been shocking.

我在假期前刚去过北京。

I was just in Beijing before the holiday.

在一场又一场的会晤中，中国官员流露出的情绪介于烦躁和暴怒之间，因为美国没有为这次访问做好准备。

And in meeting after meeting after meeting, what bled into all of those from Chinese officials was mix of somewhere between being irritated and being apoplectic at The US not preparing for this visit.

通常情况下，总统访问的筹备工作会提前数月就开始。

Normally, when you've got a presidential visit, planning starts months in advance.

到目前为止，双方本应已经定期通话了。

By now, the two sides should be having regular calls.

双方本应已经交换了成果清单。

They should have exchanged lists of deliverables.

双方本应已经规划好访问的具体安排和流程。

They should have planned out the actual physical mechanics of the visit.

但这些事情一件都没发生。

But none of that has happened.

这表明，美方尚未完成自己的功课，还没有明确这次访问希望达成什么目标。

And so it just shows that on The US side, The US side hasn't done its homework yet to decide what it wants out of this trip.

他们拖延得越久，就越难实现真正有助于提升美国经济竞争力的实质性成果。

And the longer they wait, the harder it then becomes to deliver real deliverables that could help US competitiveness for The US economy.

但你还提到了另一点，我认为这非常重要。

But you also hit at one other thing that I think is really important.

如果我们看看总统的其他出访，他总是带着首席执行官们一起去，因为商业才是他关心的重点。

And that is if we look at the president's other trips, he's always taken CEOs with him because business is what's on his mind.

而这也正是他一直关注的焦点。

And and that's what he's been focused on.

这一点在中国尤其明显。

That's especially true with China.

但即使到周五为止，他们还没有决定是否要让首席执行官们参加这次访问，更不用说发出邀请了。

But even now, as of Friday, they haven't decided if they want CEOs to go on this trip, much less started to extend invitations.

因此，距离这次访问不到四十天，我们甚至还没有一位首席执行官知道他或她是否会收到邀请。

So for a trip that's less than forty days away, we don't have a single CEO that knows if he or she is going to be invited.

但这恰恰说明，政府尚未真正为这次访问做好充分准备。

But that just is, I think, sort of emblematic of of the administration not having really done its homework on this visit yet.

如果我可以再补充一点，我认为这对理解这次访问至关重要。

If I can add just one more thing that I think is really important to frame this visit.

而且你知道，中国是一个极其重视礼仪的国家。

And that is, you know, China is a country that takes protocol extraordinarily seriously.

比我在世界各地接触过的大多数国家都要重视得多。

Much more than most countries that that I've dealt with around the world.

我认为在这种情况下，这一点很重要，因为中国将国家层面的访问或领导人访问分为三个级别。

And I think in this case, it's important because the Chinese recognize three levels of state level visit or of leader level visits.

首先是工作层访问，国家领导人前来举行正式会谈。

And so, you've got working level visits where a state leader will come and have official meetings.

然后是正式访问，规模更大，礼仪也更隆重。

They have official visits where you have which are much larger with more protocol.

比如几周前基尔·斯塔默从英国来访，那就是一次正式访问。

This is, for example, like Keir Starmer's visit from The UK just a few weeks ago.

那是一次正式访问。

That was an official visit.

但特朗普的这次访问，双方都已宣布这是一次国事访问。

But Trump's visit, both sides have announced it's a state visit.

这把所有规格都提升到了极致。

And that takes everything up to 11.

在礼仪层面，一切都达到了更高的级别。

It takes everything up much higher on the protocol front.

因此，作为其中一部分，会在人民大会堂举行国宴，可能有数百人参加。

And so, you know, as part of that, there's the state dinner in the Great Hall of the people that could involve hundreds of people.

如果特朗普总统只带五人的代表团前来，从礼仪上讲是行不通的。

If president Trump shows up with a delegation of five, then that just doesn't work out protocol wise.

你可以理解为什么。

You can understand why

肖恩，你提出了一个很好的观点，即国家级会晤可能会提高博弈的筹码。

Sean, you raised a good point about how the state level meeting is going to also perhaps raise the stakes.

我的意思是，你能否再多谈谈，这将如何为企业的调整带来明确性？

I mean, could you talk a bit more also about the extent in which there will be clarity for businesses as they have to adjust.

与此同时，他们的投资和招聘决策也将受到影响。

In the meantime their investment, their hiring decisions as well.

是的

Yeah.

所以这就是大家所期望的。

So that's what everyone's hoping for.

对吧？

Right?

美国这次访问希望得到什么？

What does The US want out of the trip?

美国希望获得市场准入。

The US wants some access to markets.

它希望出售航空产品。

It wants to sell aviation.

它希望出售飞机。

It wants to sell airplanes.

它希望出售农产品，也许还有一些其他东西。

It wants to sell agriculture and maybe some other things.

美国企业敦促政府去做的，正是它尚未做到的事情。

And what American business is pressing the administration to do is what it hasn't yet done.

那就是讨论长期存在的市场准入问题，以及歧视美国产品、美国出口和美国企业在华经营的长期非关税壁垒。

And that's to talk about the long standing market access issues, the long standing non tariff barriers that discriminate against American products, American exports, and American business in China.

因此，这就是美国企业所寻求的。

And so that's what American business is looking for.

而美国企业所寻求的，以及中国所寻求的，同样是稳定且可预测的商业环境，以便企业能够进行规划。

And then what American business is looking for and what the Chinese are looking for, again, is a stable and predictable business climate so companies can plan.

所以，如果我们讨论进入美国的关税水平，你知道，政府希望强调美国的制造业。

So if we're talking about what the level of tariffs will be coming into The United States, you know, the administration wants to emphasize manufacturing in The US.

但别忘了，美国从中国进口的是什么？

But remember, what does The US import from China?

它进口最终产品，比如电视机，但也进口大量中间产品。

It imports final goods like say television sets, but it also imports a huge number of intermediate goods.

这些产品用于美国的制造业，并为美国工厂提供动力。

Things that go into American manufacturing and power American factories.

在长期来看，我们需要知道这一点。

Until we know in the long term Yeah.

成本会是多少？你该如何建设新工厂并定价？

What that's going to cost, how do you build a new factory and how do you price that in?

在我们获得稳定之前，就业岗位将继续从美国流失，因为根本无法进行投资。

So until we get stability, jobs will continue to hemorrhage from The United States because it's just impossible to invest.

这是美国商会主席肖恩·斯坦与彭博电视台主持人谢丽·杨和黄艾薇尔的对话，为您带来《晨间亚洲》播客的访谈内容。

That was Sean Stein, president at the US China business council, speaking with Bloomberg TV host Sherry Yawn and Averyl Hong, bringing you their conversation here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.

感谢收听本期彭博《晨间亚洲》播客。

Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia edition podcast.

每个工作日，我们都会关注塑造亚太地区市场、金融和地缘政治的新闻。

Each weekday, we look at the stories shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific.

您可以在苹果、Spotify、彭博播客YouTube频道或您收听播客的任何平台找到我们。

You can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen.

明天请再次收听，我们将为您带来从香港到新加坡和澳大利亚的市场动态分析。

Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia.

我是道格·克里纳，这里是彭博。

I'm Doug Krisner, and this is Bloomberg.

您可以通过彭博新闻即时获取新闻。

You can get the news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.

我是艾米·莫里斯。

I'm Amy Morris.

我是凯伦·莫斯科，今天来向您介绍我们全新按需新闻报道，直接推送至您的播客订阅中。

And I'm Karen Moscow here to tell you about our new on demand news report delivered right to your podcast feed.

彭博新闻即时播报是一份时长五分钟的简短音频报道，涵盖当日最重要的新闻。

Bloomberg News Now is a short five minute audio report on the day's top stories.

节目全天多次更新，提供最新信息和数据，助您随时掌握动态。

Episodes are published throughout the day with the latest information and data to keep you informed.

是的。

Yes.

其他新闻机构也有类似产品，但它们通常只是全天重复播放其广播新闻。

There are other products like this from a variety of news organizations, but they usually rerun their radio newscasts throughout the day.

我们不是这么做的。

That's not what we do.

我们制作的是仅在彭博新闻现在可收听的定制节目。

We create customized episodes that can only be heard on Bloomberg News Now.

我们不会等上一个小时才发布突发新闻。

And we don't wait an hour to publish breaking news.

一旦有新闻发生，我们会在几分钟内将节目上传到您的播客订阅源，确保您始终获取最新的新闻和动态。

When news breaks, we'll have an episode up on your podcast feed within minutes, so you're always getting the latest stories and developments.

获取来自彭博社全球3000名记者和分析师的报道与背景分析。

Get the reporting and the context from Bloomberg's 3,000 journalists and analysts were all over the world.

立即在Apple、Spotify或您收听播客的任何平台收听彭博新闻的最新内容。

Listen to the latest from Bloomberg News now on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.