特朗普关税不确定性，美国因人工智能焦虑而抛售

新闻在周末也不会停止。

The news doesn't stop on the weekends.

背景信息不断变化，

Context changes constantly,

而现在，彭博社是您掌握一切动态的最佳去处。

and now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all.

你好。

Hi.

我是大卫·古拉。

I'm David Gura.

每周六和周日，请收听全新的《彭博周末新闻》。

Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg this weekend.

我是克里斯蒂娜·拉菲尼。

I'm Christina Raffini.

我们将为您带来最新头条、深度分析和重磅访谈。

We'll bring you the latest headlines, in-depth analysis, and big interviews.

所有在你休息日触动你的故事。

All the stories that hit home on your days off.

我是丽莎·马泰奥。

And I'm Lisa Mateo.

观看并收听本周末的彭博资讯，深入了解商业、生活方式、人物与文化方面的深刻对话。

Watch and listen to Bloomberg this weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people, and culture.

在周六早晨，我们会将上周的事件置于背景中分析，探讨市场和世界发生了什么。

On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world.

而在周日，我们会采访记者、专栏作家和重要的政治人物，为你迎接

Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists, and key political figures to prepare you for the

即将到来的一周做好准备。

week ahead.

一醒来就加入我们，无论你的周末计划去哪里，都带着我们同行。

Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you.

在彭博电视上观看我们。

Watch us on Bloomberg Television.

在Bloomberg广播收听，通过Bloomberg Business应用实时收听节目，或收听播客。

Listen on Bloomberg Radio, stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app, or listen to the podcast.

这就是本周末的Bloomberg节目，2月28日起，每周六和周日早上7点（东部时间）播出。

That's Bloomberg this weekend, Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7AM eastern on February 28.

让Bloomberg电视、广播以及你收听播客的任何平台都成为你周末日常的一部分。

Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television, radio, and wherever you get your podcasts.

Bloomberg音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

欢迎收听《晨间亚洲》播客。

Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast.

我是道格·克里纳。

I'm Doug Krisner.

在最高法院推翻特朗普总统的紧急关税后，我们迎来了一波新的不确定性。

We have a new wave of uncertainty after the Supreme Court struck down president Trump's emergency tariffs.

早些时候，特朗普总统在真相社交上表示，他将对那些‘玩弄’最高法院裁决的国家征收高得多的关税。

Earlier on truth social, the president said he will put much higher tariffs on countries that, quote, play games with that high court ruling.

现在我们得知，白宫正在努力发布一项正式指令，将全球关税税率提高至15%，但尚不清楚这一命令是否会在定于周二东部时间凌晨12:01生效的10%关税之前最终确定。

And now we are being told the White House is working to issue a formal directive to increase the rate on global tariffs to 15%, but it's not clear if this order will be finalized before those 10% levies are set to go into effect Tuesday at 12:01AM eastern time.

顺便提一下，摩根士丹利估计，目前来自中国商品的平均关税率将从约32%下降至24%。

By the way, Morgan Stanley is estimating that the average tariff now on goods from China will drop from a rate that is around 32% now down to 24%.

为了了解亚太地区正在发生的情况，我邀请到了彭博社的涂连婷。

For a look at what's happening in the Asia Pacific, I'm joined by Bloomberg's Lian Ting Tu.

她是亚洲股票业务的主编。

She is managing editor for Asia Equities.

涂连婷从我们在新加坡的演播室连线加入。

Lian Ting joining from our studios in Singapore.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

有太多话题要谈了。

There's so much to talk about.

我知道中国今天已经恢复运营了。

I know that China is back online today.

我们看到股市出现了一点积极信号。

We're seeing a little bit of positivity in the equity market.

你认为这个故事中有多少与最高法院关于关税的裁决有关？

How much of this story do you think is related to the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为对中国来说，最高法院的裁决无疑是一个巨大的赢家。

I think for China, definitely, it is an outstanding winner out of the Supreme Court ruling.

因为中国取消了那10%的芬太尼关税后，现在与中国所有其他贸易伙伴对美关税税率一致了。

Just because China, without that 10% fentanyl tariff, China's now having the same tariff rate with all the other trading partners with The US.

所以你可以看到，昨天香港股市大幅上涨。

So you can see yesterday, the Hong Kong stock market rallied pretty hard.

我认为在那则消息影响下，亚洲地区涨幅最大的就是它。

I think the biggest gainer out of Asia on that particular news.

当然，印度也被视为赢家之一，但我认为总体而言，人们仍认为中国股市原本就有更高的贝塔值。

And, of course, India was also considered part of that winners part of the winners, but I think overall people still think China with higher beta to begin with for its stock market.

因此，中国股票还有更大的上涨空间。

So there is more to gain, for Chinese stocks.

也许我们现在可以稍微谈一谈人工智能。

Maybe we can talk a little bit now about artificial intelligence.

在美国，股市因对人工智能颠覆主题的更多焦虑而出现回落。

We had a rugged session in The States where equities retreated on a little bit more anxiety over this AI disruption theme.

我们收到了Sattrini研究公司的一份报告，他们提出了几种不同的情景。

We had a report from Sattrini Research, and they laid out a couple of different scenarios.

我想重点讨论其中两个。

I wanna focus on two.

一种情况是，像DoorDash和Uber Eats这样的外卖应用被聊天机器人替代品取代。

One, where delivery apps like DoorDash and Uber Eats are displaced by chatbot made alternatives.

另一种情况是，AI代理试图通过消除Mastercard和Visa等支付处理公司的交易手续费来为用户省钱。

And in another scenario, a case where AI agents try to save users money by eliminating transaction fees charged by payment processing firms like Mastercard and Visa.

我很好奇，Lianting，亚洲太平洋地区关于AI颠覆的讨论是怎样的？

I'm curious, Lianting, about the conversation in the Asia Pacific regarding AI disruption.

在你听来，情况如何？

What's it sound like to you?

是的。

Yeah.

当你读到那篇文章时，确实会感觉非常悲观，甚至有些反乌托邦。

It does feel very pessimistic, very dystopian when you read that article.

我认为交易员们非常关注这类情景和分析，以及这些技术将如何导致失业，以及对许多公司、尤其是像外卖平台这类中介公司造成利润损失，任何旨在减少摩擦的领域，都将是首批受到AI发展冲击的对象。

I think traders are very much interested in the kind of scenario and analysis and how, you know, the kind of technology will translate to job losses and also profit losses for many of the companies, especially the intermediary companies like the food delivery companies and, you know, anything that has is aimed to reduce friction is actually going to be the first to be heard by all these AI developments.

但在亚洲，我认为人们更关注的是赢家，对吧？

In Asia, though, I think people are looking for winners right?

我们谈过，亚洲许多科技巨头在人工智能热潮和数据中心建设中，实际上处于受益者的有利位置。

We talked about how Asia, a lot of Asia tech giants are really positioned to be you know the beneficiaries in this AI boom in the data center build out.

就在刚才，Alap Shah 这位报告的合著者在 BTV 接受采访时，我们看到 SK 海力士股价在这一时期上涨了近 5%。

Again we actually saw SK hynix jumping almost 5% during the period when this treaty, the report co writer, Alap Shah, was being interviewed on BTV just now.

由此可见，人们非常关注他的观点，并且积极寻找赢家。

So as you can see, people are really tuning into what he has to say and are really looking for winners.

而今天，台湾是另一个突出的赢家。

And Taiwan today is another standout winner.

我认为，那份报告中几乎提到了台积电。

TSMC was almost mentioned, I believe, in that report.

台积电和台湾的这些小型芯片制造商今天表现非常出色，我上一次查看时，股价普遍上涨了约 7%。

And TSMC and Taiwan, all these smaller chipmakers today having a great day, up 7% or so last time I checked.

所以我认为，在亚洲，这再次强化了一个观点：这场人工智能浪潮中最大的赢家都在亚洲。

So I think in Asia, again, that's reinforced the narrative that biggest winners in this AI trade are in Asia.

当然，在美国，许多中间商都上市于美国，而亚洲则很少有这类公司上市。

And of course, in The US, you know, a lot of the intermediaries are listed in The US and not a lot of those things are listed in Asia.

这也部分解释了为什么在当前的AI热潮中，亚洲并没有被视为一个避风港。

That also sort of explains why Asia is not considered a little bit of a haven right now in this AI scare trade.

今天早些时候，我看到一篇彭博社的报道，讲述了一个春节期间在中国大陆发生的故事——几家中国公司在中国春节联欢晚会上展示了新型人形机器人。

I was looking at a story on the Bloomberg earlier today describing about something that happened over the holiday on the Mainland where a few Chinese firms showed off new humanoid robots at the annual Spring Festival Gala.

在中国大陆，人们对机器人技术有多大的热情呢？

Is there a lot in the way of enthusiasm when it comes to robotics on The Mainland?

是的。

Yes.

我们实际上在去年这个时候，春节联欢晚会之后，就看到过机器人展示它们的舞蹈能力。

We actually saw that playing out last year at around this time after the Spring Festival Gala where, robotics robots, I should say, showed off their dancing skills.

这次的不同之处在于，表演中机器人所展现的动作更加

What's different this time around is, the moves that you saw in the performance was

很多

a lot

先进了。

more advanced.

看来在这一年期间，机器人技术的发展速度确实加快了。

It seems the development has really sped up during that one year period.

这些机器人能够表演功夫，完成后空翻并稳稳落地。

These robots were able to play Kung Fu, were able to do backflips and land on their feet.

因此，这确实让投资者感到兴奋。

So it does excite investors.

当然，很多人提醒说，这些机器人的真正应用场景尚不明确，虽然在电视上看起来很棒，但目前这些机器人公司还没有太多能带来收入的途径。

Of course, a lot of people have warned that, you know, the real user case for those robots, you know, they looked great on TV, but they don't see a lot of sort of revenue generation venues as of yet for these robotic companies.

而且，中国这个机器人领域也存在大量竞争。

And they there's also a lot of competition in this robotic sector in China.

因此，就该领域的长期投资而言，一些人警告说，目前对盈利前景的可见度并不高。

So in terms of long term investment in that sector, some people have warned that there is not a lot of visibility on profit generation.

既然我们正在谈论假期，我想知道你是否看到任何关于旅行和消费等方面的高频数据，这些数据能否让我们了解消费者在春节期间的参与程度如何？

So as long as we're talking about the holiday period, I'm curious as to whether you've seen any high frequency data on things like travel and spending that may give us some sense of how well consumer was engaged during the Lunar New Year festivities?

是的，已经公布了一系列数据，尤其是旅行统计数据，整体上都非常积极。

Yeah, there have been a slew of data, especially on travel stats, and they are overwhelmingly positive.

让我印象深刻的一个数据是，春节期间家庭旅行的预订量同比飙升了76%。

One stat that stood out to me was bookings for family trips over the Lunar New Year period jumped 76% year over year.

这个增幅非常大。

That's a big jump.

就在一小时前，我刚和一些内地同事聊过，他们提到那些大城市在春节期间人满为患，酒店几乎全部订满，房价更是翻了四倍，但消费依然非常强劲。

And I was just talking to some Mainland colleagues an hour ago, and they were talking about how packed and crowded those big cities were during that New Year period with tourists and hotels apparently were really booked out and hotel rates quadrupled this time around, but spending was still very strong.

所以看起来，这次人们充分利用了这个长达九天的春节假期——这是有史以来最长的春节假期，他们选择去不同城市，体验不同的生活方式，与家人共度时光。

So it does seem like people took advantage of this elongated period this time, nine day, I think is the longest Lunar New Year period ever to really enjoy the time with family and they chose to spend in a different city, you know, different experience.

因此，我认为这部分非常积极。

So I would say that part is really positive.

但另一方面，票房数据也出现了一些疲软的迹象。

But on the other side, there is also some weak data point out of box office.

根据花旗的数据，今年春节档的票房是自2018年以来最弱的一次。

According to Citi, the box office data out of this New Year period was the weakest since 2018.

看来缺乏足够吸引人的影片来吸引观众走进影院，这显然不是一个好现象。

Seems there wasn't enough interesting content to draw viewers into the cinema, so that is considered negative, of course.

在让你走之前，Leon Ting，我们能不能聊一聊日本？因为我知道本周晚些时候会公布东京通胀数据和日本零售销售数据。

Before I let you go, Leon Ting, maybe we can talk a little bit about Japan, because I know we have later in the week data on Tokyo inflation, also Japanese retail sales.

股市表现相当强劲。

The equity market has been fairly robust.

我们知道，首相高市早苗正坚持试图为经济提供一些刺激，我也知道目前非常关注缓解这里的通胀压力。

We know that Prime Minister Takaiichi is insisting on trying to provide a little bit of stimulus to the economy, and I know there is a very, very sharp focus on trying to relieve some of the inflationary pressures here.

关于日本，你听到了哪些消息？

What are you hearing with respect to Japan?

今天人们都在谈论哪些话题？

What are some of the stories that people are talking about today?

是的。

Yeah.

两件事。

Two things.

两件事。

Two things.

一个是最高法院裁决对日本的影响，另一个当然是AI交易。

One is the supreme court ruling implication on Japan, and the other, of course, is this AI trade.

对于第一点，日本整体上被视为中立，因为日本此前已与美国达成15%的关税协议。

I would say for the first one, Japan, net net, is considered neutral because Japan had a 15 tariff deal with The US before.

而美国方面，特朗普曾表示，他将对所有贸易伙伴征收15%的关税。

And The US, of course, Trump, has mentioned, he's going to have that 15% tariff on all trading partners.

因此，在这方面，我认为日本市场并没有出现明显反应。

So on that front, I think we're not seeing a lot of reaction out of Japan.

汽车制造商，我上一次查看时，股价是上涨的。

Automakers, last time I checked, were up.

如果你看AI领域，日本确实有一些软件公司和支付公司上市，而今天它们出现了一些抛售。

And if you look at AI, Japan does have some software companies and payment companies listed and today they are having a bit of sell off.

但日经225指数中还有许多权重较大的日本公司，实际上是芯片设备制造商。

But there are also a lot of heavy weighted Japanese companies on the Nikkei two twenty five that are actually, you know, chip equipment makers.

所以我们正在关注爱德万测试和东京电子。

So we're looking at Avantest, Tokyo Electron.

这些公司今天表现都非常好。

All these guys are actually having a great day.

我们经常谈论韩国和台湾在芯片供应链中的优势地位。

So we talk a lot about Korea and Taiwan being well positioned in the chip supply chain.

日本其实也有许多类似的企业，这就是为什么随着一天的推移，日经指数变得越来越积极。

Japan actually has a lot of these names as well, so that's why you see Nikkei turning more and more positive as as the day goes on.

是的。

Mhmm.

我们就说到这里。

We'll leave it there.

莱昂·丁，非常高兴与你交流。

Leon Ting, it's always a pleasure.

非常感谢你。

Thank you so very much.

莱昂·丁也是亚洲股票的主编，他从新加坡的演播室为我们带来《晨间亚洲》播客的报道。

Leon Ting too is managing editor for Asia Equities, joining from our studios in Singapore here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.

这里是特别探员里格尔，特别探员布拉德利·霍尔。

This is special agent Regal, special agent Bradley Hall.

时间大约是上午11:15。

The time is approximately 11:15AM.

即将开始与张大和医生的自愿电话通话。

About to start consensual telephone telephone call with doctor Daiwa Zhang.

中国国家安全部是世界上最具神秘性和权力的情报机构之一。

China's Ministry of State Security is one of the most mysterious and powerful spy agencies in the world.

但在2017年，联邦调查局成功潜入了内部。

But in 2017, the FBI got inside.

等等。

Wait.

那是个拍卖师。

That's an auctioneer.

嘿。

Hey.

我整个职业生涯从未见过这么多证据，我认为我们再也不会看到如此多的证据了。

I'd never seen that much evidence in my entire career, and I don't think we'll ever see that much evidence again.

我现在掌握了这位中国安全部官员的数太字节数据，毫无疑问，他的生活细节尽在其中。

I now have several terabytes of an MSS officer, no doubt, no question of his life.

这简直是天方夜谭。

And that's a unicorn.

这是一个关于中国安全部内部运作的故事，讲述了一名男子的野心与失误如何揭开了其秘密宝库。

This is a story of the inner workings of the MSS, and how one man's ambition and mistakes opened its vault of secrets.

从2月13日起，在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或您收听播客的任何平台，收听Bloomberg播客《第六局》。

Listen to the Sixth Bureau from Bloomberg Podcasts starting on February 13 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎回到《晨间亚洲》播客。

Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia podcast.

我是道格·克里纳。

I'm Doug Krissner.

在美国，股市因对人工智能影响的再度担忧以及美国关税政策的不确定性而回落，我们的对话将从这里开始，与伊桑·德维特聊聊。

In The States, the equity market retreated on renewed anxiety over the impact of artificial intelligence as well as uncertainty over US tariff policy, and that's where we begin our conversation with Ethan Devitt.

伊森是Moneta全球财富的董事总经理，她与彭博电视台主持人海蒂·斯特鲁德·沃茨和谢丽·翁进行了对话。

Ethan is managing director at Moneta Global Wealth, and she spoke with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud Watts and Sherry On.

我们某种程度上看到了这种由动量驱动的股票反转的延续。

We sort of see this continuation of the momentum driven stock reverse.

对。

Right.

从你的角度来看，考虑到你仍在寻找人工智能和软件领域的某些机会，你如何看待这种情况？

What do you make of this in terms of how, you know, definitely you have to navigate given that I know that you're still looking for some of those opportunities within the AI and software spaces?

这是个很好的问题。

Well, it's a great question.

我住在伦敦，但一直在关注美国东海岸正在发生的这场暴风雪。

I'm based in London, but I've been watching this blizzard going on on the East Coast Of The US.

这同样是一场信息的暴风雪，我们不得不应对。

And this is a blizzard of information too that we're having to cope with.

令人惊叹的是，我们现在已看到这种连锁反应波及了不同行业。

And it is extraordinary that we have now had this cascade through different sectors.

还记得我们最初是从SaaS，即软件即服务领域开始的。

Remember we started with the SAS the software as a service sector.

它后来延伸到了我的领域——私人财富管理。

It moved into my sector private wealth.

当时有人担心，像Altruist这样的免费税务软件会扰乱这一领域。

There was concern around the altruist tax preparation software disrupting that.

而现在，我们正进入更主流的软件领域。

And now we're moving into just mainstream software areas.

令人惊讶的是，这种虚构报告所引发的‘魔法思维’竟然能激起如此大的担忧。

And and this is extraordinary that this basically magical thinking of fictitious reports could trigger this kind of concern.

因此，我们可以看到市场是多么脆弱，它们总是先抛售，再问问题。

What we can see therefore is just how jittery markets really are, just how they're they're really selling first, asking questions later.

所以当你谈到AI领域的‘卖铲人’——基础设施技术时，即使在高度不确定的情况下，你现在会抓住机会吗？

So when you talk about grid tech, picks and shovels around AI, would you be opportune opportunistic right now even with the high degree of uncertainty?

是的。

Yes.

过去十八个月，我们Moneta一直专注于这一点，正如你提到的，那些不会随着AI发展而改变的‘镐和铲子’。

That has been something that we at Moneta have been focused on for the past eighteen months has been really as you mentioned the picks and shovels what is not going to change as we have A.

我。

I.

潮流来来去去。

Momentum come and go.

不会改变的是对能源的需求。

What is not going to change is the demand for energy.

我们知道，这种需求在全球范围内正在不断上升。

And we know that that is essentially just rising around the world.

我们正在关注来自可再生能源和传统能源两方面的趋势，并寻找与此相关的‘镐和铲子’机会。

We're looking at that coming from both renewable energy sources traditional energy sources and finding the picks and shovels that play into that.

还有一个新兴领域——电网技术，因为投资主要集中在这一块。

And then a new sector grid tech because that's where the uninvestment has been made.

电网领域的投资一直不足。

The lack of investment has been in the grids.

因此，我们认为这是可持续的。

So that we believe is sustained.

它或许目前并不是市场中的动量板块。

It's perhaps not the momentum side of markets right now.

当前更偏向防御性和价值型板块，但我们认为这与人工智能故事密切相关，且具有持久性，而人工智能则会更加波动。

There's more of a defensive and even value area, but we see that as being very much adjacent to the AI story but having legs whereas AI is going to be more volatile.

特别是如果我们关注基础设施建设，英伟达的财报将至关重要。

Especially if we're focusing on that infrastructure build out, NVIDIA earnings will be so key.

你会关注哪些方面？

What will you be watching?

是的。

Yes.

我们将关注持续的需求，以及英伟达，我们知道它将成为一个异常突出的市场领导者。

We're gonna be looking at the with the sustained demand and how NVIDIA we know that that is going to be an outlier that has been a market leader.

它主导着美国。

It is dominating The U.

S.

S.

股市，但更关键的是，那里存在持续需求的强劲故事，他们的前景将至关重要，我认为这将提升股东的预期，因为目前他们对人工智能的不确定性感到非常悲观。

Stock market but more goods a good strong story of sustained demand there and their outlook will be critical to I think uplift the shareholders expectations because they are really quite depressed right now in terms of the uncertainty around AI.

因此，我们目前正期待一些积极的迹象。

So we're looking for some shoots of good news at this stage.

当然，贸易环境也存在大量不确定性，据报道，特朗普总统可能即将宣布在现有15%关税基础上新增国家安全关税。

A lot of uncertainty also on the trade environment, of course, with President Trump potentially now according to reports announcing new national security tariffs on top of 15% tariffs as well.

每当美国达成新的贸易协议时，似乎随时都可能改变，你如何应对这种情况？

How do you factor that in when every time we have a new trade deal with The United States, it seems to change at any point?

这很有趣。

It was interesting.

但最初，比特币和数字资产是贸易不确定性最早的预警信号。

But first, it was Bitcoin and digital assets that were the canary in the coal mine for trade uncertainties.

但这种情况早已过去，因为波动性已经全面席卷了整个比特币领域。

That's long since passed because the volatility has just really enveloped the entire Bitcoin area.

所以我们现在必须关注其他资产类别，看看哪些领域在贸易问题上显示出担忧迹象。

So now we have to look at other asset classes risk on which are showing signs of concern around trade.

这并不是市场所需要的新闻。

This was not the news that markets needed.

起初，这看起来像是不错的消息。

It initially seemed quite good news.

如果能消除一些这些退税和关税的不确定性，美国经济本可能迎来一波上涨。

There could have been a rally in The US economy if some of these rebates and tariffs uncertainty was removed.

但随后特朗普总统进一步强化其关税政策的反制措施，似乎是导致今天市场动荡的原因。

Then the the rearguard action by president Trump to really double down on his tariff policy, that's what seems to have thrown markets off today.

但请记住，我们正面临来自多个不同领域的不确定性。

But remember, we're looking at uncertainty from many different areas.

私人信贷目前也正经历一段艰难时期。

Private credit too is having a difficult spell right now.

这充分凸显了此前市场对完美状况的定价程度。

And this really just does underscore how much the markets were priced for perfection up to now.

强劲的经济一次又一次地违背了预期，而现在我们到处都能发现裂痕。

The resilient economy has confounded expectations over and over again, and now we can find cracks everywhere.

我认为，这正是当前市场过度反应的原因。

And that's what markets I think are overreacting to at present.

你并不担心你提到的私募市场问题，因为我们有阿波罗、KKR、黑石等公司都在投资这种基础设施建设。

You're not concerned about the private market, issue that you mentioned because we have the likes of Apollo KKR, Blackstone, all investing in this infrastructure build out.

当然，正如我们之前讨论的，这些不确定性也可能影响到这些机构所做的一切投资。

And at this point, the uncertainties, of course, as we have discussed, could actually extend to all of the investment that these people have made as well.

这非常

It's a very

说得好。

good point.

我们一直关注的是固定收益市场、公共固定收益市场的低波动性，以及那里看到的极窄利差和MOVE指数的极度平静。

What we've been looking at the low volatility in fixed income, public fixed income markets That has been the the tight spreads that we're seeing there, the move index being so subdued.

但这与我们看到的其他市场波动并不一致。

That is it does not cohere with what we're seeing and the other jitters of markets.

那么，风险在债券内部转移到了哪里？

So where has the risk moved to within bonds?

似乎风险已经转移到了私人信贷领域，现在投资者开始意识到这一点。

It seems to have moved into the private credit area, and now investors are waking up to that.

由于这些机构的敞口，软件领域的问题肯定会波及私人信贷领域。

There definitely is going to be contamination from this software arena drawback to the private credit area given their exposures.

但我们一再听到，不能一概而论地看待整个私人信贷领域，有些公司能挑到优质项目，而其他公司在拥挤的领域中回报较低。

But time and time again, we've heard that this is not we cannot paint the entire private credit area with one rush that it is that is very much a question of of of some firms having the pick of the crop and other firms in crowded areas with less compelling returns.

因此，我们对私人信贷领域的展望不应过于笼统。

So we shouldn't be too sweeping about our outlook for the private credit area.

但确实，可能存在尽职调查不足和问题。

But it's true that there have perhaps been due diligence and problems.

我们一再看到，违约率将会上升。

We've just seen that time and time again and that the default level will rise.

但我们预计总体而言，私人信贷仍然相当稳健。

But we do expect that overall private credit is quite sound.

但杰米·戴蒙提到的这些蟑螂将会不断冒出来。

But these cockroaches that Jamie Dimon mentioned are going to stop start cropping up.

问题是市场是否会对此过度反应。

And the question is whether markets overreact to them.

即使我们面临这种情况，一次又一次地出现来自贸易不确定性或地缘政治不确定性的冲击，但未来风险和波动性的反应似乎会减弱。

Even we have this situation where time and time again, there's hits coming from usually trade uncertainty or geopolitical uncertainty, but it feels like the sort of risk and volatility response can be muted going forward.

你提出了一个关于风险将转向何处的问题。

You raise a question of where that risk is going to go.

对吧？

Right?

你如何评估未来几个月这种波动性将如何扩散？

What is your assessment of, I guess, how that volatility gets spread in the coming months?

我认为我们必须记住，当市场出现回调时，目前它们都极为短暂。

Well, I think we have remember that when we do have these pullbacks in markets, they're very short lived at the moment.

这是因为零售投资者如今广泛参与了所有市场的方方面面。

And that's because we do have this strong inclusion of retail investors in all markets everywhere.

我们知道，被房地产市场拒之门外的千禧一代正在以前所未有的程度投资股票。

We know that the millennials that are priced out of the real estate market are investing like stocks like never before.

普通民众正在以前所未有的方式参与华尔街的投资。

Main Street is participating in Wall Street like never before.

所以这些资金目前都处于观望状态。

So that's on the sidelines.

大量资金目前都躺在货币市场基金里，处于观望状态。

This huge amount of money in money market funds is on the sidelines.

它们正等着寻找抄底的机会。

They are out there looking for bargains.

而且，当固定收益产品的利差像我提到的那样低，同时通胀仍在后台持续攀升时，持有债券根本赚不到钱。

So and they they essentially put when we have spreads in fixed income as low as they are, as I mentioned, and we still have inflation ticking away in the background, nobody is making money owning bonds.

因此，对股票的需求依然强劲。

So there is still strong demand for owning equities.

这就是为什么我相信这些回调将是短暂的，也正是因为如此，市场在很大程度上与我们当前面临的动量问题脱钩，对地缘政治事件也表现出一定的免疫力。

So that's why I believe that these pullbacks will be short lived, and that's why markets are really somewhat apart from these momentum problems we're having just now, markets have been somewhat immune to geopolitical developments.

它们对国内政治动态一直持免疫态度。

They have been immune from domestic political developments.

它们似乎并不关心许多发达国家巨大的财政赤字，因为底层企业收益极具吸引力。

They don't seem to care about the large fiscal budget deficit across many developed nations because the underlying company earnings have been so compelling.

因此，市场一直能够同时容纳两种观点。

So that has been the the market's ability to hold two ideas at one time.

现在我们在这方面看到了一些不安，但我认为这并非根本性问题。

Now we're seeing some jitters in that respect, but I don't believe it's fundamental.

以上是Moneta Global Wealth管理董事伊森·达维特与彭博电视主持人海迪·斯特鲁德·沃茨和安秀丽的对话，为您带来《晨间亚洲》播客内容。

That was Ethan Davitt, managing director at Moneta Global Wealth, speaking with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud Watts and Sherry Ahn, bringing you their conversation here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.

感谢收听本期彭博《晨间亚洲》播客。

Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia edition podcast.

每个工作日，我们都会探讨塑造亚太地区市场、金融和地缘政治的新闻。

Each weekday, we look at the stories shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific.

您可以在苹果、Spotify、彭博播客YouTube频道，或您收听播客的任何平台找到我们。

You can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen.

明天再来和我们一起，了解从香港到新加坡和澳大利亚的市场动态。

Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia.

我是道格·克里纳，这里是彭博社。

I'm Doug Krisner, and this is Bloomberg.

我是斯嘉丽·傅。

This is Scarlet Fu.

我是保罗·斯威尼，诚邀您收听彭博情报播客。

And I'm Paul Sweeney inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast.

每天，我们都运用彭博情报的力量，为您深入剖析推动市场的公司，从苹果这样的上市公司，到像OpenAI这样虽为私营但全球皆知的企业。

Every day, we harness the power of Bloomberg Intelligence to bring you deep dives into the companies that are moving markets from publicly traded companies like Apple to those that are privately owned but known by everyone on Earth like OpenAI.

斯嘉丽，我参与了彭博情报如今的建设，如今我们的分析师是全球顶尖的，覆盖了2000多家全球公司。

Now I helped to build Bloomberg Intelligence to what it is today, Scarlett, and now our analysts are the best in the world, covering more than 2,000 global companies.

这正是你的遗产，保罗，我们每天都会与这些内部专家交流。

That is your legacy, Paul, and we speak to those in house experts every day.

他们是彭博在各行业、公司和法律流程方面的首选权威。

They are Bloomberg's go to authorities on sectors, companies, and legal processes.

我们每天工作日实时进行，并将最精彩的对话收录在每日播客中。

And we do it all live each weekday then bring you the best conversations in our daily podcast.

请务必在 YouTube、Apple、Spotify 或您收听的任何平台搜索 Bloomberg Intelligence。

So be sure to search for Bloomberg Intelligence on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

在下班回家的下午时段收听，补上您在工作日错过的市场新闻。

Listen in the afternoons on your way home from work to catch up on the market news you missed during the business day.

这就是 Bloomberg Intelligence 播客。

That is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast.

我是 Scarlet Fu。

I'm Scarlet Fu.

我是 Paul Sweeney。

And I'm Paul Sweeney.

请在您收听播客的任何平台立即订阅。

Subscribe today wherever you get your podcast.