彭博社电视直播：2026年8月13日

工资、奖金、401k、股票期权、投资账户。

Salary, bonus, four zero one k, stock options, investment accounts.

在一定的财富水平下，你的财务生活可一点都不简单。

At a certain wealth level, your financial life is anything but simple.

如果你的财富管理顾问只看到问题的一角，那谁来负责串联其余的部分呢？

If your wealth manager only sees one piece of the puzzle, who's connecting the rest?

Creative Planning的整合团队会看到全局。

Creative Planning's integrated team looks at the whole picture.

他们协调你的投资、税务策略和遗产规划，全面了解你的财务生活，让所有环节紧密配合。

They coordinate your investments, tax strategy, and estate plan to form a complete view of your financial life so everything fits together.

Creative Planning，让财富协同运作。

Creative Planning, where wealth works together.

更多信息，请访问creativeplanning.com/bsp。

Learn more at creativeplanning.com/bsp.

下周的《与我同行》节目，我们有幸邀请到Francine Lacroix。

Next week on Leaders With Me, Francine Lacroix.

我和哈佛商学院教授琳达·希尔聊了聊，CEO们要想成功需要知道些什么。

I speak with Harvard Business School professor Linda Hill about what CEOs need to know to be successful.

其实关键不在于他们自己。

It really is not about them.

而在于整个组织。

It is about the organization.

以及如何在人工智能时代进行领导。

About how to lead in the age of AI.

这需要极大的自信。

That requires a lot of confidence.

还有为什么伟大的领导者会拥抱冲突。

And why great leaders embrace conflict.

你需要放大差异。

You need to amplify difference.

敬请收听《领导者》播客，我是弗朗辛·拉克鲁瓦，在彭博电视或任何你收听播客的平台都可以找到。

Listen and watch Leaders, the podcast with me Francine Lacroix on Bloomberg TV or wherever you get your podcasts.

Bloomberg音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

电台。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

欢迎收听彭博市场播客。

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

我是乔纳森·费罗，和丽莎·阿布拉莫维茨、安妮·玛丽·霍登一同主持。

I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowitz and Anne Marie Horden.

每天加入我们，聆听市场、经济和地缘政治领域的最佳洞见。

Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics.

我们位于纽约全球总部，工作日早晨六点到九点（美东时间）在彭博电视上直播。

From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to 9AM eastern.

请在苹果播客、Spotify或任何你听播客的地方订阅我们的节目。

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

当然，还有彭博终端和彭博商业应用上也可以收听。

And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

本小时一开始，股市和债市保持平稳，CPI数据降低了九月加息的预期。

Begin this hour with stocks and bonds steady as CPI eases September rate hike bets.

下一次通胀数据将于东部时间早上8点30分公布，接下来还有PPI数据。

The next read on inflation out at 08:30AM eastern with PPI on deck.

高盛副主席、前达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰现在加入我们，带来更多分析。

Sachs vice chair and former Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan joins us now for more.

罗布，很高兴和你聊一聊。

Rob, great to catch up with you.

我想先请你谈谈对经济的看法，你对相对疲软的劳动力市场报告以及那份基本符合预期但令人困惑的CPI报告，是否感到意外？

I wanna start just by asking you your take on the economy and whether you were surprised by the relatively weak labor market report and then the very much in line yet confusing CPI report.

我在经济中看到的情况是，如果与AI基础设施建设或AI采用相关，那么经济表现强劲。

What I'm seeing in the economy, if it's associated with the AI infrastructure build or AI adoption, then it's strong.

我从很多跟房地产、汽车、以及中低收入消费者实力相关的公司那里听到的，他们认为经济还行，不算特别好，有点迟缓。

What I hear from a number of companies who are more tied to housing, autos, the strength of the low moderate income consumer, I would say they describe the economy as okay, not great, somewhat sluggish.

所以从这个角度来看，就业市场报告和这个情况是相符的。

And so in that regard, the job market report kinda was in line with that.

你看不到大量招聘，也看不到大量裁员。

You don't see aggressive hiring, but you don't see aggressive firing.

而且我仍然认为，还需要几个月甚至一年的时间，公司才会对AI的用例有足够的信心，从而更大胆地用AI来替代人力，但这种情况迟早会发生。

And I still think we're several months or a year away from companies having enough confidence in the AI use cases to more aggressively use AI to replace people, but that is likely to happen.

我认为也会出现新的岗位，但重点是单位劳动力成本非常可控，我觉得你我都聊过这个话题。

I think there'll be new jobs created also, but but the point is unit labor costs are very well behaved, and I think you and I have talked about this.

GDP中企业利润的占比在上升。

The share of GDP going to profit is increasing.

劳动力收入的占比则更加平淡。

The share going to labor is more muted.

在这种背景下，美联储应该扮演什么角色？

What's the Fed's role given this backdrop right now?

所以，现在有很多相互矛盾的因素。而且，说句公道话，如果没有伊朗战争和油价飙升，我觉得这些已经把整体通胀推高了，还波及到其他项目。我猜我们可能根本不会讨论加息的可能性。

So, you've got a lot of crosscurrents, And, and and in fairness, if we didn't have the war in Iran and the spike in oil prices, which I think has raised headline inflation and bleeds into other items, My guess is we might not be even be talking about the prospect of a rate increase.

而且我认为联储现在应该做的是努力理解这些相互矛盾的因素。

And I think the federal here should be to try to understand these cross currents.

AI基础设施建设可能引发通胀，而关税、劳动力紧张、油价飙升又加剧了这种情况。

The AI infrastructure build is probably inflationary, and you've got tariffs, labor constraints, oil spike that exacerbate that.

另一方面，AI的采用最终应该会抑制通胀。

On the other hand, AI adoption should ultimately be disinflationary.

中国的产能过剩也应该会抑制通胀。

Chinese overcapacity should be disinflationary.

所以对我来说，现在有这么多的争论，他们要想办法理清这些，并不让人意外。

And so it's not surprising to me that there's a lot of debate, and they're trying to weave through this.

我觉得，如果我还是坐在我以前的位子上，我在七月份就不会提高利率。

I think what I would be doing in my former seat is I I would not have raised rates in July.

我认为他们做出了完全正确的决定。

I think they made absolutely the right decision.

顺便说一句，我可能十二月也不会降息。

I probably wouldn't have cut in December either, by the way.

最后一次降息，我不会做。

That last cut, would not have done.

从现在到九月，我会保持开放态度。

And I would be keeping an open mind between now and September.

如果我看到明显的改善，我可能愿意拖延一下，什么都不做。

If I see meaningful improvement, I might be willing to kick the can and do nothing.

但我想利用从现在到九月的每一分时间再做判断，避免在评估时过于僵化或预先设定立场。

But I but I wanna I wanna take every bit of time between now and September before I make a judgment and avoid being rigid or predetermined in assessing this.

人们在谈论前瞻指引的终结。

People talk about the death of forward guidance.

在一定程度上，在没人知道会发生什么的时候，前瞻指引没有作用，而且很难预先确定到底会发生什么。

In part, forward guidance has no role at a time where no one knows what's gonna happen, and it's very hard to predetermine what exactly could transpire.

同时，反应函数似乎确实很重要。

At the same time, reaction function does seem to be important.

从你的角度来看，罗伯，你会关注什么迹象，来判断这种混乱、这种胶着状态会演变成持续顽固的通胀呢？

And from your vantage point, Rob, what would you be looking for to see that there is some sort of departure from this sort of mess, this muddle to something that is more of a protracted persistent inflation?

所以“前瞻指引”这个词用得相当宽泛。

So the term forward guidance gets used very broadly.

它最初的意思是，我今天做出承诺，未来采取某个行动。

What it started out as is I'm gonna make a current commitment today to a future action.

伯南克在金融危机时期用过这个策略。

Bernanke used it during the great recession.

我担心我们在2020年秋到2021年期间过度使用它了，当时承诺在达到充分就业前将利率维持低位。

We, I think, overused it in the fall of twenty twenty and into '21 in committing to keep rates low until we reach full employment.

我对此表示不同意见。

I dissented on that.

但我认为美联储已经吸取了教训，现在对这种类型的预期指引更加谨慎了。

But I think the Fed has learned its lesson there and is is much more reluctant to use that type of forward guidance.

现在，前瞻指引更像意味着，我不想过度预设。

Now what forward guidance seems to mean is I don't wanna I don't wanna over, predict.

这一点我也同意。

I agree with that too.

而且我一直说，美联储的职责是风险管理，而不是预测未来。

And I always say the Fed's job is to be a risk manager, not a prognosticator.

话虽如此，我确实认为在新闻发布会上，你应该能够解释你为什么做出那个决定，并描述利弊和讨论的内容。

Having said all that, I do think in the press conferences, you ought to be able to explain why you made the decision you made and describe what the pros and cons and what the debate was.

我可能希望在未来的新闻发布会上更多看到这样的内容。

And I would probably like to see that more in future press conferences.

我认为这会让大家更清楚正在进行的讨论。

And I think that would illuminate the debate that's going on.

我觉得这会很有用，而且我认为美联储根本没有做到这一点。

And I think that would be useful, and and I don't think that box is in the Fed at all.

你觉得现在这个美联储的应对机制有问题吗？

Do you think that there's a understanding of the reactionary function right now of this Federal Reserve?

我觉得人们是通过个人演讲来了解他们的反应机制的。

I think the understanding comes from individuals giving speeches about their reaction function.

而且说实话，我觉得对沃什主席来说，他一直在温和地给委员会成员提建议。

And I actually think, in fairness to chair Warsh, he's he's been gently counseling people on the committee.

不要过度预测你的想法。

Don't don't over predict what you're thinking.

不要过度解释。

Don't over explain it.

你会把自己框住的。

You're gonna box yourself.

我确实觉得这是个好建议。

I actually think that's good advice.

我觉得将来，主席多做一些解释来帮助大家理解这一切，会很有用。

I think in the future, I think a little bit more explanation from the chair to help frame all this, I think would be useful.

而且我希望，在接下来的几个月里，你可能会看到这种情况。

And and I would I would think and hope over the next several months, you probably will get that.

你觉得现在所有这些，是不是让他在杰克逊霍尔的演讲更受关注了？

Do you think there's now more emphasis around his Jackson Hole speech given all of this?

听我说。

There's listen.

每次美联储主席讲话，都会受到很多关注。

Anytime Fed chair speaks, there's a lot of attention.

历史上杰克逊霍尔的演讲有点偏哲学层面，讲得很宏观。

The Jacks Knoll speech historically is a little bit of a 500,000 foot philosophical speech.

我觉得，通过他的确认听证会和前两次新闻发布会，你已经能了解到主席很多哲学层面的看法了。

I think because of his confirmation hearings and what he's done in the first two press conferences, you've already gotten a lot of philosophical views from chair.

所以我认为，在这次演讲中，他会谈一些哲学层面的东西，但如果换做是我——他可能不会这么做——我会穿插四句话来解释我们为什么在七月份做出那个决定。

So I think I think in this speech, I would give some of the philosophical, but I might do a little bit of a if it were me, and he may not follow this, I might insert four sentences to explain why we made the decision in July that we made.

你知道，我们当时觉得通胀数据在降温。

You know, we thought inflation readings were cooling.

我们也清楚，这（经济状况）不是需求过旺的情形。

We're aware that this is not an excess demand situation.

这是我对经济的看法。

That's my view in the economy.

这更多是供应驱动、资本支出驱动的，而且在这方面，我们还有战争的特殊情况。

It's more of a supply driven, CapEx driven, and and in that regard and we have the special situation of the war.

而且在这方面，委员会的大多数投票者决定最好保持耐心，但我们会保持警惕。

And in that regard, a majority of the voters decided on the committee decided it would be best to be patient, but we'll remain vigilant.

我会插入类似这样的内容，这样我们就能把框架和七月的决定讲清楚。

I would insert something like that to just so we can get the framing and the July decision out there.

不过这只是我的想法。

And but that's me.

否则，我不认为它会比任何其他杰克逊霍尔演讲获得更多关注，而那个演讲总是备受关注。

Otherwise, I don't think it's gonna get any more attention than any other Jackson Hole speech, which always gets a lot of attention.

Rob，你对今天30年期国债拍卖，也就是财政部出售的250亿美元30年期国债，有多担心？

Rob, how worried are you about today's thirty year auction coming out, the $25,000,000,000 of thirty year notes sold by the treasury department?

是的。

Yes.

所以这就是你看到分歧的地方。

So this is where you've got diverging past.

美联储内部有争论，而且情况挺棘手的。

There's the debate at the Fed and there's geez.

联邦基金利率最终可能需要再高一些。

The Fed funds rate ultimately need to be somewhat higher.

但如果需要更高的话，我们说的是未来一年内，大概，嗯，五十到七十五个基点吧。

But if it needs to be higher, we're we're talking about over the next year to, you know, 50 I don't know, fifty, seventy five basis points.

到时候再看吧。

We'll see.

美联储会想办法解决的。

The Fed will figure it out.

过程可能不太好看，但他们总能搞定。

May not be pretty, but they'll figure it out.

我更担心的是，我觉得市场也在担心的是，国债收益率曲线的长端。

The part that's that I'm struggling with more and I think the markets are struggling with, the long end of the treasury curve.

全球的政府债券收益率曲线都是这样。

This is true of government bond curves globally.

我觉得他们是在纠结别的事情。

I think are struggling with something else.

他们在纠结国债的供需平衡，以及这些赤字的规模。

They're struggling with supply demand of treasuries, the size of these deficits.

这些赤字会不会开始缓和？

Are the deficits gonna start moderating?

经济强劲的时候，你通常会认为赤字会有所缓解。

In a solid economy, you would normally think that deficits would moderate somewhat.

但这些赤字并没有缓和，而且我觉得你们看到的是全球性的，不仅仅是美国，整个国债曲线长端的收益率都在上行。

These deficits are not moderating, and I and I think you're seeing a global backup, not just US global backup of the long end of the curve.

有些人把这个归咎于美联储，但我真的不这么认为。

I I some people have attributed to the Fed, but I actually don't think so.

我觉得这是另一种情况，是一种结构性的动态。

I think this is a different this is a structural dynamic.

正常情况下，当经济走弱时，你通常会预期国债长端收益率会下行。

And normally, when the economy weakens, you would typically expect the long end of the treasury curve to rally.

或者出现地缘政治事件时，大家预期资金会流向优质资产并推动行情上涨。

Or if there's a geopolitical event, you expect a flight to quality in a rally.

但我觉得在过去一年半到两年的时间里，市场并没有表现出这种走势。

Hasn't been acting as much that way, I would argue, the last year and a half, two years.

我认为我们正面临一种新的结构性变化，我觉得有必要花点时间深入思考这个问题。

I think we we have a new structural development, and I and I think, I I think it's appropriate to be wrestling with that a little bit.

罗布，快速问一下，展望明年，你对哪个方向会更看好？

Just real quick here, Rob, what would you be more bullish on going into the next year?

债券还是股票？

Bonds or stocks?

确实，正如你报道的那样，我们也能看到，现在有一个非常精彩的财报故事正在展开。

Well, there is a great earn as you've been reporting and we're seeing it, there is an a great earning story that's unfolding.

没错，经济确实正受到AI基础设施的推动。

And it's it's the the the economy, yes, is being stimulated by AI infrastructure.

不过总的来说，我接触过的每家公司都提到了12到15个AI应用场景，他们都很有信心能找到提升利润率、改善业务和提高生产力的方法。

But but broadly, every company I talk with has got 12 to 15 use cases on AI adoption and is optimistic that they're gonna find ways to improve margins, improve their business, improve productivity.

所以我觉得，标普500指数的盈利故事不仅今年还在继续，未来也会持续下去。

And so I think the the S and P broad earnings story is alive and well for not just this year but into the future.

我有点担心我们能不能把赤字控制住，以及政府债券收益率曲线的长期端会发生什么变化。

I'm a little more nervous about whether we can get these deficits under control and what's gonna happen to the long end of the government bond curve.

请稍等片刻。

Stay with us.

更多彭博监控节目内容，稍后为您带来。

More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

工资、奖金、401(k)计划、股票期权，还有投资账户。

Salary, bonus, four zero one k, stock options, investment accounts.

如果你的财富顾问只能看到拼图的一块，那谁来负责把剩下的部分拼起来呢？

If your wealth manager only sees one piece of the puzzle, who's connecting the rest?

Creative Planning的专业团队会进行一体化协调，确保所有环节都能无缝衔接。

Creative Planning's integrated team of specialists coordinates all of it so everything fits together.

Creative Planning，让财富管理真正协同运作。

Creative Planning, where wealth works together.

访问Creative Planning官网，网址是creativeplanning.com/BSP。

Creative Planning dot com slash BSP.

你好。

Hi.

我是Barry Ritholtz，欢迎收听《商业大师》播客。

I'm Barry Ritholtz inviting you to join me for the masters in business podcast.

每周我们都会与那些塑造市场、投资和商业的人物对话。

Every week, we bring you conversations with the people who shape markets, investing, and business.

我会采访CEO、诺贝尔奖得主、市场创新者和传奇投资者。

I speak with CEOs, Nobel laureates, market innovators, and legendary investors.

无论您持有股票、债券、房地产、大宗商品，甚至是加密货币，这些讨论都是您绝对不能错过的。

Whether you own stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, even crypto, these are discussions you absolutely need to hear.

在Apple、Spotify或任何您收听播客的平台，订阅《商业大师》播客。

Subscribe to the masters in business podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

今天早上我们还需要关注科技板块，这也是本期的重要话题之一。

We do wanna turn to tech, a big part of the story as well this morning.

AI交易重新升温，超大规模厂商在内存芯片价格飙升之际，反而加倍投入基础设施支出。

The AI trade regaining momentum as hyperscalers double down on infrastructure spending even as memory chip prices skyrocket.

CFRA的Angelo Zino指出，半导体领域看不到价格上涨压力缓解的迹象，2027年定价仍有上行风险，尤其是内存、计算和网络方面。

Angelo Zino of CFRA writing, there are no signs that pricing increases will ease across the semispace with risk of more upside to pricing in 2027, espe for memory, compute and networking.

现在请Angelo为我们做更多解读。

Angelo joins us now for more.

Angelo，你知道，大家一直在讨论这个问题，通胀压力，还有即将到来的芯片涨价潮。然后Cerebras出来展示了一下，他们晶圆的需求表现平平，跟预期不太一样，算是那种特种芯片吧。

Angelo, you know, everyone's been talking about this, the inflationary pressures, the chipflation on the horizon, and then Cerebras came out and demonstrated a lackluster demand relative to expectations for its wafers, sort of specialty chips.

你怎么看这件事？

What do you make of that?

是不是所有的芯片都一样？

Is it are not all chips created equal?

这基本上就是我们学到的东西吗？

Is that essentially what we're learning?

是的。

Yeah.

所以说呢，谢谢你邀请我，Lisa。

I mean and Lisa, thanks for having me.

你看，Cerebras的情况其实有点不一样。

So you you look at so cerebris is a little bit of a different story.

实际上，他们不太参与那些高带宽内存相关的东西。

Actually, they don't take part in a lot of this other stuff in terms of the high bandwidth memory.

他们完全不用高带宽内存。

They don't use high bandwidth memory at all.

所以他们更像是个独特的玩家，而且那家公司，大家的预期真的高到离谱。

So they're more of a unique beast out there and, you know, that's a company where just the expectations are just absolutely insane.

估值也是，高得吓人。

The valuation has, you know, is insane as well.

所以我们一直都没碰这只股票。

So it's a name we've stayed away from.

所以呢，拿这家公司跟整个芯片行业比，可能并不能反映你现在看到的行业整体情况。

So when we kinda look at that name maybe relative to what you're seeing across the the broader chip space, it's probably not a good reflection of what you're seeing out there.

就我们未来几个季度的预期来说，市场应该还是会处于供应紧张的状态。

As far as kind of, you know, our expectations going out here over the next, you know, couple of quarters, I mean, we expect the market to continue to be supply constrained in nature.

显然，内存会是关键关注点，因为目前最大的瓶颈就在那里。

Obviously, memory is going to be, you know, the key item to watch because that is where the biggest bottleneck is at this point in time.

往前看，至少未来六到八个季度，需求增长趋势依然很强劲，而且下一代服务器的推出也非常关键。

And as we kinda look ahead, let's call it over the next six to eight quarters at the very least, the demand trajectory remains very strong, but also when you look at these next gen servers that are coming out, that's extremely key.

内容增长和这些新一代服务器所需的内存容量还在指数级上升，这会让市场继续保持紧张。

The content growth, the amount of memory required in these next generation servers continue to go up exponentially, and as a result, that's what's going to keep the market tight.

这会让我们继续面临供应短缺，进而推高价格，但至少不会像过去九个月那样涨幅那么大。

That's what's gonna keep us in a supply deficit, and as a result, we're gonna see higher pricing, not to the magnitude at least, though, that what we've seen over the last nine months.

与此同时，我们看到股票市场已经开始消化这些因素了。

At the same time, we are seeing some of this get priced in from the stocks.

那里出现了大幅反弹。

We're seeing a huge recovery there.

KOSPI指数涨势凶猛，比七月份的低点涨了差不多21%。

The KOSPI on absolute steroids here, gaining some 21% since the lows over in July.

这里面有多少是基本面重新评估，也就是说，芯片的故事和芯片通胀确实是真的，芯片短缺会持续下去？

How much is this a fundamental reassessment that, yes, the chip story and chipflation very much is real and chip shortages will persist?

又有多少是杠杆的故事，因为韩国监管机构采取的措施，市场对估值的信心在增加？

And how much is this a leverage story, one of increasing confidence in valuations because of steps that the Korean regulators have taken?

是的。

Yeah.

我是说，你听我说。

I mean, listen.

我觉得当我们整体来看内存的时候，内存一直是市场上波动性非常大的一个领域。

I I think when we think about memory in general, memory has always been an extremely volatile area of the market.

所以当你看到具体在韩国发生的事情，我认为更多是和一些杠杆问题有关，还有就是我们通常会在内存领域看到的那些波动。

So when you kinda look at what's going on, you know, specifically in South Korea, I'd say it has more to do with kind of some of the the leverage issues going on and again, just a a lot of the the the volatility that we typically see in memory.

所以那只是市场的一部分，也是世界的一部分，你就是要预期并接受这种波动。

So that's just gonna be an area of the market and an area of the world that you're just gonna expect and get comfortable with having that volatility out there.

在美国这里也一样，内存——你想想美光或者闪迪之类的公司——考虑到这些公司未来盈利轨迹的不确定性，就预期市场这部分会继续更具不确定性，但同样也要明白，那些公司有更大的盈利杠杆。

And similar here in The US, I mean, memory is going to when you think about a Micron or SanDisk and what have you, given the uncertainty about that future earnings trajectory of these companies, just expect that pocket of the market to continue to be more uncertain in in nature, but also also understand that there's greater earnings leverage in those companies as well.

所以，你知道的，风险越大，回报也就越高。

So, you know, with greater risk also comes greater reward.

Angelo，今年圣诞节的花费会贵多少？

Angelo, how much more expensive is Christmas going to get this year?

哦，肯定会贵的。

Oh, it's gonna get expensive.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，你想想我们之前看到的那些情况。

I mean, you kinda think about what we saw.

你知道，我觉得苹果可能已经给出了最好的信号，今年夏天早些时候就提了价，而且各种迹象表明，下个月9月他们开硬件发布会的时候，iPhone的价格很可能至少涨150美元，我们认为专业版系列可能会涨更多。

I, you know, I think Apple might have, you know, kinda had the the the best kind of indicator out there in terms of what this is gonna look like later this year, in terms of raising those prices back earlier this summer, and again indications are in September when they do have that hardware event next month is iPhone prices probably go up at least a $150 across the board for those pro devices in our view potentially more.

所以，你知道，想想这个，我要说的是，看看不同的电子设备，消费者还会不会继续买还有待观察。

So, know, when you kind of think about that, and and I will say this, looking at different electronic devices, you know, whether or not consumers will continue to buy remains to be seen.

但我觉得智能手机，至少高端市场，会更有韧性，因为可能不会像电脑那些领域那样引起那么大的价格冲击，而电脑我觉得会受限制很多。

But I think smartphones, at least the high end of the market, will be a lot more resilient in nature, because I don't think you have the sticker shock as much as maybe you have in other areas like PCs, which I think will be a lot more constrained in nature.

更别提，有些零部件他们根本搞不到。

Not to mention, they're just not gonna be able to get their hands on certain components.

所以消费者就被迫去适应更高的成本和价格，而很多人要么做不到，要么就是不愿意这么做。

So consumers are gonna be forced to kind of move up in terms of the cost curve and pricing curve there, and there are gonna be many out there that just won't be able to do it or won't want to do it.

我知道很难预测，但是今年会不会就是需求开始萎缩的起点呢？

I know hard to predict, but is potentially this year going to be the start where you see demand destruction?

从消费者角度来说，是的。

On the consumer side, yes.

对，绝对是的。

I mean, absolutely.

所以我们预计，至少按台数计算，个人电脑的需求会下降大约15%。

So, you know, we're we're looking for, you know, PC demand at least on a unit basis to decline, you know, mid mid teens.

智能手机的需求今年也同样会下降。

Smartphone demand again also will decline this year as well.

看看2027年会怎么样，那会很有意思。

It'll be interesting to kinda see how '27 looks.

再说一次，我觉得明年又会是持平或下滑的一年。

Again, I'd say expect another flat to down type of year next year.

所以我认为至少在销量上，你会看到需求被破坏。

So I do think you're going to see some demand destruction at least from a unit perspective.

但同时，这些公司也在一定程度上通过涨价来抵消这种影响。

But in the same respect, you know, these companies are offsetting that to an extent by increasing prices as well.

请继续收听。

Stay with us.

更多彭博观察节目马上回来。

More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after

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delivered to you in an instant.

现在订阅彭博新闻，随时根据自己的时间安排获取新闻。

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这些是关于当日头条的短音频报道，几分钟内就能听完。

These are short audio reports on the day's top stories that you can listen to in just a few minutes.

现在就让彭博新闻成为你获取全球头条最新动态的可靠来源，而且还有背景解读。

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现在，实际上，美联储加息的概率正在上升，目前9月份加息的可能性大约有40%。

Right now, actually, you're seeing the chances of a Fed rate hike increase now about 40% chance that there could be a rate hike at September.

现在，我们邀请到了美国经济研究所的Lydia Mashburn Newman。

Right now, joining us is Lydia Mashburn Newman of the American Institute for Economic Research.

Lydia，非常感谢你来到我们的节目。

Lydia, thank you so much for being with us.

我想听听你对CPI和PPA这两个数据的看法。

I'd love your take on two prints CPI and PPA.

虽然还不能完全下结论，但至少从目前的价格来看，确实指向了某种程度的通缩趋势。

Not exactly conclusive but pointing in the direction that there is some disinflation coming at least through prices currently.

对。

Yeah.

我们确实得到了一些还算不错的数据，至少从总体数据来看，尤其是核心数据。

We definitely got some reasonably good data at least from a from a headline standpoint and especially the core numbers.

但我认为这里面还是需要谨慎一些。

But I think there's some caution to be had in here.

虽然这些数据可能让人稍微有点振奋，但也许会给鸽派一些回旋的余地，让他们暂时保持观望。

While these prints maybe are a little bit encouraging, they might give the doves some some wiggle room to stay to to keep on hold for now.

我们尤其需要看一下那些同比数据。

We need to look both a lot of especially the the year over year numbers.

现在讨论的是从一年前较高的数据点开始计算，这主要是由于贸易问题导致的。

We're talking about starting from a data point that was high higher a year ago, largely due to trade issues.

所以我们对这个数字要谨慎一些，而且我们还需要注意，PPI数据会反映到CPI里，在下一次会议之前我们就能看到这个数据了。

And so we should be a little bit cautious about that number, but we need to be looking at these numbers are going to be feed the PPI numbers are gonna be feeding into CPI, and we'll get that print before the next meeting.

实际上，我们需要关注的是能源和贸易部门之外的那些因素。

And, really, what we need to be looking at are things outside of the energy trade sectors.

看服务通胀和CPI的话，我们还是保持在百分之三点零。

When we look at services inflation and CPI, we're still at three point o percent.

这些数据说明经济需求端压力还是很大，而这正是美联储应该并且能够采取行动的部分。

These are things that indicate that the demand side of the economy still has a lot of pressure, and that's the part that the Fed can and should do something about.

所以我认为我们在这里确实需要谨慎一点。

And so I really think we need to be cautious here.

在公布的NGDP数据中也能看到这一点。

You're also seeing this in the NGDP numbers that came out.

这是美联储判断自身政策宽松程度的另一个重要参考。

This is another place where the Fed can really look at how accommodative their policy is.

我们按年化计算达到了百分之六点五。

And we're we're hitting 6.5% on an annualized basis.

我们几乎接近百分之七点九了。

We're at almost 7.9%.

这远高于疫情前大约百分之四到五左右的趋势水平，具体看你怎么统计。

And this is well above the pre pandemic trend of about four to 5% depending on how you slice it.

所以这一切让我觉得，也许贝丝·哈马克说得对。

And so all this says to me that maybe Beth Hammack is right.

美联储或许应该稍微踩一下刹车，尽快加息25个基点。

The Fed maybe should pump the brakes a little bit and hike by 25 basis points sooner than later.

否则，我认为市场在中期和长期内会面临更大幅度的加息，那会更痛苦。

Otherwise, markets are going to be getting, I think, much higher, harsher hikes over the medium and longer term.

莉迪亚，别走远。

Lydia, stay close.

迈克尔·麦基有更多报道。

Michael McKee has more.

他一直在研究这些数据。

He's been looking through the data.

迈克，你看到了什么？

Mike, what do you see?

嗯，大家担心两件事，一是能源。

Well, there's two things that people are concerned about, and one is energy.

能源价格下降了3.1%，这是导致整体数据持平的主要原因。

Energy prices were down 3.1%, which is the biggest reason that we saw the kind of results we got on the headline, the flat change.

但PPI的另一个方面是，经济学家会深入分析，寻找那些计入PCE的类别。

But then the other thing about PPI is the economists go into it and look for the categories that get fed into PCE.

这里有一些相互抵消的消息，医疗保健服务相对持平，尽管某些领域有所上涨。

And there's sort of offsetting news here, relatively flat health care services, although some areas are up.

然而，投资组合服务上涨了6.5%，超出预期。

Portfolio services, though, up six and a half percent more than anticipated.

显然，当华尔街表现良好且交易活跃时，这些价格就会上涨。

Obviously, when Wall Street does well and there's been a lot of churn on Wall Street, those prices go up.

但航空客运服务下降了3.4%，这是能源状况的延续，因为喷气燃料价格和机票价格都下跌了。

But airline passenger services were down 3.4%, which is a carry on from the energy situation as jet fuel prices fall and airline ticket prices fell.

因此，这种抵消导致PCE略微上升。

So the offset is a slightly higher PCE.

看来我还没有计算过。

It appears that I haven't done the math.

我就是在粗略估算一下。

I'm just eyeballing this back of the envelope.

但关键在于，最终对美联储和那些鹰派来说，PPI和CPI怎么说并不重要。

But that's the concern is it doesn't matter what PPI and CPI say in the end for the Fed and for those who are hawks.

重要的是PCE的表现。

It matters what PCE does.

而且看起来PCE的数值会比CPI和PPI都略高一些。

And it looks like PCE is going to come in a little higher than both the CPI and PPI.

迈克尔·麦基，非常感谢你。

Michael McKee, thank you so much.

这也解释了为什么九月份加息的可能性在增加，市场正在逐渐消化这个预期。

This explains also why you are seeing a greater chance of a rate hike in September, slightly getting priced in.

莉迪亚，你怎么看这种说法，即这不一定来自劳动力市场？

Lydia, what do you make of the argument that this is not coming necessarily from the labor market?

你并没有看到会导致某种螺旋式通胀的工资压力。

You're not seeing the wage pressure that would create some sort of spiraling inflation.

所以即使我们看到其他方面有所增长，哪怕不是能源，而是跟AI或者财富效应相关的，美联储也可以选择忽略这些。

And so even if we do see an increase in these other parts, even aside from energy but tied to AI or tied to, just the wealth effect that this is something that the Fed can look through.

美联储确实应该，也需要忽略所有的能源冲击，甚至那些重新加征的关税。

The Fed really you know, they ought to and need to look through all of the energy shocks and even the the tariffs that are on again.

但我们在工资方面看到的情况，我知道没有工资压力是好事，那可能会导致通胀螺旋。

And but what we're seeing with the wage situation, I know it's a great thing that we're not seeing wage pressures, and that can lead to an inflationary spiral.

但也要从消费者的角度来看这个问题。

But also think about this from the standpoint of the consumer.

消费者不能只是分析掉能源冲击或关税带来的更高成本。

The consumer is they don't get to just analyze away the energy shocks or the higher costs from tariffs.

他们得实时应对这些，而他们的工资跟不上。

They're having to deal with those in real time, and their wages are not keeping up with that.

但美联储解决不了这个问题。

But the Fed can't fix that problem.

降低利率在这种环境下帮不了普通工薪阶层，至少长期来看帮不了。

Lower rates doesn't help, the the average wage earner in this particular climate, at least not on any sort of long term basis.

美联储能为劳动市场和通胀做的最好的事情，就是恢复其在物价稳定方面的信誉。

The best thing the Fed can do for both the labor market and for, inflation is to restore its credibility for price stability.

这是他已经承诺要做的事情。

This is something has promised that he will do.

不过，我觉得他在上次新闻发布会上，对于美联储如何或何时真正恢复到2%的通胀目标并重新获得信誉，表现得有点含糊其辞。

Although, I think his last press conference, it felt like he was maybe being a little bit wishy washy about how the Fed or when the Fed would actually get to restoring that 2%, inflation target and get that credibility back.

但正如迈克刚才指出的，我们一直在玩很多把戏。

But we've been playing a lot of gay games as as, Mike was just pointing out.

PCE是目标。

The PCE, is the target.

那是美联储的官方目标。

That is the Fed's official target.

我们花了很多时间分析数据，试图剔除能源冲击，试图关注核心或超级核心指标。

And we've been spending a lot of time parsing the data, trying to pull out the energy shocks, trying to, look at core or super core.

这更像是我们在改变衡量标准，以便让美联储符合2%的目标，而实际上美联储应该做的是真正减少经济需求侧的东西，在那里我们仍然看到过度的宽松，过度的刺激，也许还没有完全过热。

And it's it's more like we're changing metrics in order to fit the Fed into 2% when really the Fed ought to be doing things that really reduce things on the demand side of the economy where we really are still seeing an over bit of a at least, too much easing, too much accommodation, maybe not a full overheating.

这些都是美联储真的需要非常非常仔细考虑的事情。

And these are things the Fed really ought to look at very, very carefully.

莉迪亚，你的意思是，为了让美联储有公信力，就必须在九月份加息吗？

Lydia, are you saying in order for the Federal Reserve to have credibility, it has to be a September hike?

这是唯一的方式吗？

Is that the that the only way?

这不是唯一的方式。

It's not the only way.

我觉得美联储也可以开始讨论，或许恢复缓慢缩减其资产负债表。

I think the Fed could also maybe start talking about maybe returning to a slow roll off its of its balance sheet.

正如沃什自己指出的，它不仅仅有利率工具。

It doesn't only have an interest rate tool as Warsh himself pointed out.

但他们不应该害怕加息25个基点，如果不是九月，那就十月。

But they I don't think they should be afraid of a 25 basis point hike, if not in September, then October.

我们AIER的货币中性报告确实显示，美联储绝对属于过于宽松的类别。

We are the AIER's monetary neutrality report really shows that the Fed is definitely in the too loose category.

就像这个节目里很多评论员说过的，加息25个基点其实不会掀起太大波澜。

And as you've had many commentators on this show say, a 25 basis point in increase isn't really going to rock the boat that much.

那为什么不稍微抢先一步呢？其实更多是在追赶，要应对疫情以来就存在的通胀压力，这些压力不一定跟政策变动有关，也牵涉中东危机和冲突。

So why not get ahead of the game a little bit here to try to deal with it's actually more behind the game, to deal with some of these inflationary pressures that have existed since the pandemic and aren't even necessarily related to all of the changes in policy and, due to the the crisis, and the the conflict in The Middle East.

这里是彭博观察播客，为你带来市场、经济和地缘政治的最佳内容。

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你可以在北京时间上午6点到9点，也就是美国东部时间的周一至周五上午，在彭博电视上收看直播。

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And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business

资本主义故事来自世界各地。

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从地缘政治紧张局势、央行决策，到人工智能、能源和基础设施，我们采访那些正在塑造全球市场的CEO、经济学家、政策制定者和思想领袖。

From geopolitical tensions and central bank decisions to artificial intelligence, energy, and infrastructure, we sit down with the CEOs, economists, policymakers, and thought leaders whose decisions are shaping markets everywhere we find them.

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