彭博观察电视：2026年8月5日

工资、奖金、401k、股票期权、投资账户。

Salary, bonus, four zero one k, stock options, investment accounts.

当财富达到一定水平，你的财务生活绝不简单。

At a certain wealth level, your financial life is anything but simple.

如果你的财富管理顾问只看到问题的一部分，那谁来整合其余部分呢？

If your wealth manager only sees one piece of the puzzle, who's connecting the rest?

Creative Planning的整合团队会纵观全局。

Creative Planning's integrated team looks at the whole picture.

他们协调你的投资、税务策略和遗产规划，形成你财务生活的完整视图，让一切环环相扣。

They coordinate your investments, tax strategy, and estate plan to form a complete view of your financial life so everything fits together.

Creative Planning，让财富协同运作。

Creative Planning, where wealth works together.

访问creativeplanning.com/bsp了解更多。

Learn more at creativeplanning.com/bsp.

深入了解那些塑造当今复杂经济的创新者、颠覆者和科技驱动趋势。

Gain insight on the innovators, disruptors, and tech driven trends shaping today's complex economy.

我是卡罗尔·马瑟。

I'm Carol Masser.

我是蒂姆·斯特内维克。

And I'm Tim Stenevek.

用彭博商业周刊每日播客来结束你的工作日吧。

Wrap up your workday with the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast.

我们带你深入探讨那些塑造你世界的新闻故事，从人工智能到全球商业重心的转移。

We bring you deeper dives into the stories shaping your world from of AI to the shifting priorities of global business.

还有硅谷的权力人物和最新的科技趋势。

Plus Silicon Valley power players and the latest tech trends.

补上你白天错过的对话。

Catch up on the conversations you miss during the day.

在苹果播客、Spotify或任何你收听的地方订阅彭博商业周刊每日播客。

Subscribe to the Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

这里是彭博观察播客。

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

我是乔纳森·费罗，还有丽莎·阿布拉莫维茨和安妮·玛丽·霍登。

I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowitz and Anne Marie Horden.

每天加入我们，获取市场、经济和地缘政治领域的最佳见解。

Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics.

从我们在纽约市的全球总部，我们每周一至周五东部时间早上六点到九点在彭博电视上直播。

From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to 9AM eastern.

在苹果播客、Spotify或任何你收听的地方订阅本播客。

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

一如既往，在彭博终端和彭博商业应用上也能看到我们。

And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

我们从这个小时开始，股市延续了创纪录的涨势。

We begin this hour with stocks adding to the record breaking rally.

纽约梅隆财富管理公司的艾丽西亚·莱文最近将标普500指数的年终目标上调至8000点。

Alicia Levine of BNY Wealth recently raising her year end target for the S and P to eight k.

企业盈利取代宏观经济，成为推动市场的因素。

Earnings took over from macro and driving markets.

资本支出周期继续支撑经济和工业板块，因为超大规模数据中心的支出正在推动标普500指数中20%公司的盈利增长。

The CapEx cycle continues to support the economy and industrial sectors as hyperscaler spending is powering earnings of 20% of the S and P.

现在她加入我们，带来更多分析。

Joins us now for more.

艾丽西亚，早上好。

Alicia, good morning.

早上好。

Good morning.

这几天科技股涨得真猛。

What a massive run we've seen in just a few days on tech.

太惊人了。

It's phenomenal.

你是怎么跟客户说的？

What are you telling clients?

确实惊人。

It's phenomenal.

听着，我们认为年底市场会收高。

Look, we we think the market ends higher at the end of the year.

我们的目标点位是8000点。

We're in print at 8,000.

我觉得可能还会涨。

I think it's probably moving higher.

目前标普的远期盈利增长率实际上是30%。

The forward earnings growth rate right here of the S and P is actually 30%.

所以即使现在，市盈率也在下降。

So the the multiples come down even now.

你知道，自五月中旬以来，市场一直在7500点左右徘徊。

It's you know, the market sort of tread water around around that, you know, 7,500 range since mid May.

我们有点卡在那里，因为市场在轮动，而且正如你所说，我们经历了一些清算事件。

We're kinda stuck there as the market rotated, and we've as you talked about, we've had these clearing events.

这个市场面临着几个重大问题。

There are major questions hanging over this market.

首先是战争重新开始，油价上涨，收益率上升，如果十年期国债收益率超过4.5%，市场还能上涨吗？这在整个周期中都是一个关键指标。

The first of which is the war restarted, oil prices are higher, yields are higher, can the market rally if the tenure is over 4.5%, which was really the bogey in this entire cycle.

答案是肯定的，可以。

The answer is yes, it can.

第二个问题是，超大规模企业的支出是否有投资回报率？

The second thing was is there ROI on hyperscaler spending?

他们是不是只是在无度烧钱，资助其他公司的资产负债表，而自己却陷入自由现金流为负的境地？

Are they just spending into oblivion, funding the the balance sheets of every other company but not themselves as they go free free cash flow negative?

结果发现，这其实是有商业价值的，而且他们的周期通过增长率重新加速了。

Turns out, actually, there's a business case for it, and their their cycle reaccelerated through the growth rate.

所以这个问题也得到了回答。

So that that was answered as well.

这样一来，两个主要问题就解决了。

And so you've gotten two major questions out of the way.

第三个问题是，这是否是一个盈利泡沫？

And then the third is, is this an earnings bubble?

答案是否定的。

And the answer is no.

不是。

It is not.

因为支出者的增长率在加快。

Because you've got accelerated growth rates for the spenders.

一旦你回答了这个问题，基本上就明朗了。

And once you've answered that question, it's pretty much clear out there.

如果有一个清算事件，而且你已经识别出了几个，目前看来似乎对所有人都有利。

If there is a clearing event and you've identified several, it seems to be benefiting everybody at the moment.

我们正在试图弄清楚什么时候我们开始再次区分。

And we're trying to figure out when do we start to discriminate again.

因为今年大部分时间，你看到芯片股表现良好，但软件股反应不佳。

Because much of this year, you saw chips do well but software react poorly.

你有时也会看到超大规模企业和芯片股之间出现负相关。

You saw an inverse correlation between the hyperscalers and the chip players at times as well.

这最终导致了一些像“态势感知”这样的公司爆仓，他们非常做多硬件，非常做空软件，而在过去一个月左右，情况迅速反转。

That's what ultimately blew up the likes of situational awareness who were very long hardware and very short software and things flipped pretty quickly in the last month or so.

你觉得接下来会怎么发展？

Where do you see things going from here?

领导力从哪里来？

Where does the leadership come from?

你肯定不相信所有东西都能继续这样上涨吧。

Surely you don't believe that everything can take just keeps on rallying the way it has been.

不会。

No.

肯定会有更多的选择。

There's definitely gonna be there's gonna be more selection here.

我是说，有点像是在清理图表。

I mean, was sort of clearing charts.

比如，你在过去两周内突破了50日和200日均线，这确实是清理那些表现不佳的软件公司图表所必需的。

Like, you went through fifty and two hundred days in the last two weeks, which you really needed to do to clear the charts of the deteriorating, you know, software company.

所以我们清掉了。

So we cleared it.

我认为大部分情况下，领导力可能来自超大规模企业，而不是芯片公司。

I think for the most part, it's likely to be from the hyperscalers and less on the chips.

部分原因是芯片股已经涨了很多，而且一直存在那个问题，就是你引用的我说的那句话，即这些公司的资产负债表和损益表支撑着标普500指数中20%的公司，而且我们知道市场是跟着变化率走的。

In part because the chips have come so far and there is that lingering question, you know, what what you quoted here, what which I said, which is there's funding the balance sheets and the p and l's of 20% of the S and P very clearly, and we know that markets trade on the rate of change.

在某个时候，会出现一个问题：你能让盈利增长1000%吗？

At some point, there's going to be a question, can you grow earnings a thousand percent?

你反而是在增长20%的收益，这依然很棒，但不是增长一千倍。

Are you growing earnings 20% instead, which is still excellent, but it's not growing a thousand percent.

而且有些芯片公司之所以以个位数市盈率交易，是因为市场并不认为这种增长会永远持续下去。

And there's a reason some of these chip companies are trading in the single digits because the street just doesn't see this going forever.

我认为这就是你会开始看到差异化的地方。

And I think that's where you're gonna start to see the differentiation.

你还没有突破抛物线走势。

You still haven't cleared the parabolas.

那是个问题。

That's an issue.

所以我认为你可能会转向那些自11月1日以来不受青睐的公司。

So I think you're probably getting it to the unloved companies since November 1.

那一大堆大型科技股表现一直很糟糕。

That whole panoply of of large cap tech has been terrible.

它们跑输了标普500指数。

It's underperformed the S and P.

它的表现不如罗素指数。

It's underperformed the Russell.

它的表现不如国际市场。

It's underperformed international.

它的表现不如新兴市场，我觉得这可能会有所回归。

It's underperformed Emerging Markets, and I think that gets a little that gets reverted to here.

我认为芯片股虽然受益于投资周期，而且这个周期可能持续很长时间，你知道，可能还有十八个月，甚至三年，谁知道呢，但最终这些公司的盈利增长率会放缓。

I think the chips, while benefiting and the investment cycle can go for a long time, you know, eighteen months more, three years maybe, who knows actually, eventually the growth rate is going to slow on that earnings for those companies.

超大规模企业和软件公司的投资回报成功，会在多大程度上以牺牲OpenAI和Anthropic为代价？

How much is the success on return on investment in the likes of hyperscalers and software gonna come at the expense of OpenAI and Anthropic?

我这么说是因为如果他们尝试IPO，那可能会引发波动。

And I say this because it could be a volatility inducing event when they try to IPO, if they try to IPO.

鉴于关于这个模型具体是什么样子以及他们有多大的护城河的噪音，

Given some of the noise about exactly what this model looks like and how much of a

相对于日益开放模型的竞争对手。

moat they have over something that's increasingly open model.

你看。

Look.

这真的很难说。

It's it's really it's very unclear.

我的意思是，很多人认为这些模型正在趋同。

I mean, there are many people who think the models are converging.

所以最新的一个LLM和另一个相比，它们开始看起来非常相似。

So the latest for one LLM over another, they're starting to look very similar.

我认为这就是这些商业模式的问题所在。

And I think that is the question for those those business models.

对吧？

Right?

比如说，如果你无法区分，那价值在哪里呢？

Like, you know, if you can't differentiate, then, you know, what's the value?

另一方面，我知道每个人都在使用所有这些模型。

On the other hand, I know everybody uses all of them.

而且它们看起来确实很棒。

And and so they they seem to be terrific.

另外，如果你只看营收增长率，我的意思是，这两家公司的营收都在以惊人的速度复合增长。

Also, if you just look at the revenue growth rate, I mean, revenue is compounding for both those companies at an extraordinary rate.

我们说的是每家接近一千亿美元，而两三年前它们几乎是从零开始的。

We're we're talking close to a $100,000,000,000 for each coming off of zero two two three years ago.

所以这些营收正在以惊人的速度复合增长。

So the revenues are are are sounding compounding at an astounding rate.

我觉得它们会成功的。

You don't I think they'll be I think they'll be successful.

你觉得

Do you

现在IPO、在股权和债务市场融资的门槛，是不是还像两个月前那样敞开？那时候建设这里的大笔账单还没来呢。

think that the doors are still as wide open for IPOs, for raising money in the equity and debt markets now as they were two months ago at a time when there still is a huge bill coming for all of the build out here?

我认为我们得先看看一些大型IPO的锁定期结束，让市场稍微清理一下。

I think that we're gonna have to see some of the lockups on some of the marquee IPOs to kind of clear the deck a little bit.

你知道，最终你希望IPO成功，不要跌破发行价。

You know, in the end, you want the IPOs to be successful and not break price.

如果一两周内跌破发行价，那就有问题了。

If you break price within a week or two, that's that's an issue.

我觉得这就是为什么上市日程放缓了。

And I think that's why you've seen a slowdown in the calendar.

对吧？

Right?

然后你必须……因为SpaceX？

And then you have to Because of space x?

因为你必须……你得熬过锁定期。

Because you have to they'll you have to get through the lockup.

你得熬过这里的锁定期。

You have to get through the lockups here.

我不认为会有太多资金进入市场。

I don't think there's too much capital coming to the market.

标普是60万亿美元。

The S and P is $60,000,000,000,000.

我觉得IPO规模不算太大。

I don't think the IPOs are too big.

我认为有大量的资金涌入这里，不只是在美国，全球都是如此。

I think there's a massive wall of capital coming to this, not just in the but globally.

你知道，我们从iFlow团队那里听说。

You know, we're hearing from our iFlow team.

全球都在大规模买入美国股票，因为除了这里，你还能把那么多钱投到哪里去呢？

There's massive massive buying of US equities globally because where else are you going to go with that wall of money?

其他市场根本不够大。

Other markets are simply not big enough.

所以我不担心金额，但确实有市场宣传的问题，对吧，你希望它成功，而且我觉得市场需要先冷静一下，在之前的基础上。

So I'm not worried about the dollar amount, but there is that marketing thing, right, where you want it to be successful, and I think the markets have to calm down a little bit on the previous

感谢AlphaBear提前布局了一些。

to AlphaBear for getting ahead of some of this.

关于你提到的SpaceX、即将出现的Anthropic、OpenAI，以及我们看到的关于OpenAI可能将发布推迟到2027年甚至更晚的报道，这增加了额外的供应。

The additional supply to your point on SpaceX, Anthropic on the horizon, OpenAI, just the reporting we've seen around OpenAI potentially pushing things out to '27, maybe beyond.

我不确定。

I don't know.

对。

Yeah.

而且可能是因为在资本筹集方面，他们的模型、竞争压力等方面存在一些担忧。

And potentially because of some of the concerns around the capital raise with respect to their model, competitive pressure, etcetera.

与此同时，似乎很多人对自己的目标都很有雄心。

At the same time, it seems like a lot of people are pretty ambitious on their goals.

看起来双方都赢了，好像每个人都在赢。

It looks like both are win like, it looks like everybody's winning.

你知道吗？

You know?

看起来不是这样，他们都在赢。

It doesn't look like once they're they're all winning.

奖品，你还能得到奖品。

Prize, and you get a prize.

这就是过去四天股市给人的感觉。

It's what the last four days felt like in the stock market.

那我可要了。

I'll take it.

你知道，这是个好的变化。

You know, it's been a good change.

艾丽西亚，很高兴见到你。

Alicia, it's good to see you.

谢谢。

Thanks.

各位，再见。

See you, guys.

谢谢。

Thank you.

你是最棒的之一。

You're one of best.

我很感激。

I appreciate it.

BNY财富管理的艾丽西亚·莱文。

Alicia Levine of BNY Wealth.

请继续收看。

Stay with us.

接下来是更多彭博观察节目。

More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

薪水、奖金、401k、股票期权、投资账户。

Salary, bonus, four zero one k, stock options, investment accounts.

在一定的财富水平，你的财务生活绝不简单。

At a certain wealth level, your financial life is anything but simple.

如果你的财富经理只看到拼图的一块，谁来连接其余部分？

If your wealth manager only sees one piece of the puzzle, who's connecting the rest?

Creative Planning的整合团队会纵观全局。

Creative Planning's integrated team looks at the whole picture.

他们协调你的投资、税务策略和遗产规划，形成你财务生活的完整视图，让一切环环相扣。

They coordinate your investments, tax strategy, and estate plan to form a complete view of your financial life so everything fits together.

Creative Planning，让财富协同运作。

Creative Planning, where wealth works together.

更多信息请访问creativeplanning.com/bsp。

Learn more at creativeplanning.com/bsp.

全球增长的新篇章正在书写，而其中很大一部分发生在非洲。

A new chapter in global growth is being written, and much of it is happening in Africa.

非洲人需要投资。

Africans need to invest.

有交易可做，有生意可赢。

There are deals to be done and business to be won.

我是Jennifer Zabasaja。

I'm Jennifer Zabasaja.

每周在《Next Africa》播客中，我们追踪塑造非洲未来的资本流动和政治变化。

Every week on the Next Africa podcast, we track capital flows and political shifts shaping the continent's future.

非洲的数字化将推动其增长。

The digitalization of Africa is gonna power its growth.

摆脱像HIV这样的疾病是可能的。

Riding the world of something like HIV is possible.

非洲的人口增长非常巨大。

Population growth is so enormous in Africa.

在Apple、Spotify或任何你收听播客的地方，收听《Next Africa》。

Listen to Next Africa on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是今早的最新消息。

It's the latest this morning.

总统在关键摇摆州密歇根州的初选结果陆续出炉时，吹捧美国经济。

The president touting The US economy as midterm primary results roll in in the crucial swing state of Michigan.

参议院民主党初选中，进步派阿卜杜勒·阿尔·赛义德和代表海利·史蒂文斯的竞争仍然难分胜负。

The senate Democratic primary between progressive Abdul Al Said and representative Haley Stevens still too close to call.

摩根士丹利的阿里安娜·萨尔瓦托写道，我们认为民主党略占优势，但参议院的地图仍然是一个重大的结构性阻力。

Ariana Salvatore of Morgan Stanley writing, we think Democrats hold a slight edge, but the Senate map remains a major structural headwind.

阿里安娜现在加入我们，带来更多信息。

Ariana joins us now for more.

阿里安娜，早上好。

Ariana, good morning.

很高兴见到你。

It's good to see you.

到11月，经济形势如何，这对选民来说意味着什么？

How is the stage set for this economy into November, and what does it mean for voters at the moment?

是的。

Yeah.

这里有很多事情要讨论。

A lot of things to unpack there.

经济形势是各种指标的综合体现，对吧？

The economic picture is one of an aggregate of different indicators, right?

所以你看通胀这些指标，我们预计今年剩余时间会进一步降温。

So if you look at things like inflation, we're expecting more disinflation throughout the remainder of this year.

再看消费，整体情绪不算太好，虽然比最低点有所回升，但我们认为这并不真正反映到消费意愿上。

If we look at things like consumption, the overall sentiment is not great where we're a little bit higher off of the low lows, but we don't think that really translates to spending intentions.

我们仍然预计今年消费相对强劲，大约在2%左右。

We still see relatively robust consumption this year around 2%.

我们刚刚把预测从1.7%上调了。

We just revised that up from 1.7%.

你知道，劳动力市场仍然相对平稳。

You know, the labor market still relatively sideways.

所以所有这些都描绘出一个相当不错的经济图景。

So all of that paints sort of a decent picture for the economy.

我们可以称之为良性的宏观背景。

We would call it a benign macro backdrop.

但这并不是选民唯一关心的事情。

That's not the only thing that matters to voters.

显然，负担能力是首要关注的问题。

Obviously, affordability, a top concern.

但除此之外，我们看预测市场。

But aside from that, we see prediction markets.

我们看民调。

We see polling.

我们看总统支持率，所有这些都表明，到11月，环境对民主党更有利。

We see the presidential approval rating, all signaling a more favorable environment for Democrats come November.

我记得几年前曾认为拜登会在中期选举中遭受重创，但结果并没有像人们预期的那样。

I remember thinking that Biden would get battered in the midterms into that November a few years ago, and it didn't happen the way people thought it would.

那次的教训是什么？又如何适用于现在的情况？

What's the lesson from then, and how might it apply to this situation?

2022年实际上与这次中期选举非常相似，如果你仔细想想的话。

So 2022 is actually really similar to to this midterm election if you think about it.

那年2月我们经历了一次能源冲击。

We had an energy shock in February of that year.

对吧？

Right?

然后结构性上，参议院的版图才是那次选举的关键。

And then the structural the map, the senate was was really what was important in that election.

当时有一些异常情况。

There were some anomalies.

记得吗，罗诉韦德案的意见被泄露了，这特别激发了女性和受过大学教育的选民的投票热情。

Remember, we had the Roe v Wade decision leaked, which energized turnout among specifically women and and college educated voters.

所以我认为正是这一点让民主党保持了优势。

So I think that is what allowed the democrats to maintain the edge.

但回到这里的结构性动态，版图真的很重要。

But back to the structural sort of dynamics here, the map is really important.

而且昨晚我们在密歇根看到的这场进步派胜利，使得民主党在普选中翻转这个席位变得非常困难。

And with this progressive win we saw in Michigan last night, that makes it really challenging as a general election seat for democrats to flip.

对吧？

Right?

这将是密歇根、北卡罗来纳和佐治亚州在11月竞选中的关键点。

And that's gonna be kind of the the key point between Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia races for for November.

主要问题是

What are the

哪些？

main issues?

我特别想到的是超大规模数据中心的建设、一些能源工厂，以及生活成本可能和人工智能挂钩的担忧。

And I and I'm thinking specifically of the hyperscaler build out and some of the energy plants and this concern about the cost of living that could potentially be tied artificial intelligence.

这些在选民讨论中出现的频率有多高？

How much is that present in some of the discussions with constituents?

非常高。

Extremely present.

这可能是中期选举前最大的争议点。

And this is probably the biggest wedge issue heading into the midterm elections.

对吧？

Right?

我们知道AI不受欢迎。

We know AI is unpopular.

特别是在年轻选民中。

We know specifically among younger voters.

18到29岁的人中，大约60%担心失业。

So 18 to 29, something like 60% are worried about job displacement.

但具体到数据中心建设，担忧主要有三个方面。

But when we look at the data center build out specifically, the concerns are really threefold.

首先是生活质量。

So first is quality of life.

对吧？

Right?

没人喜欢看到自己社区里大规模施工。

So no one likes to see large scale construction in their neighborhoods.

第二是用水问题，我们发现这个担忧相比其他问题有点站不住脚。

Second is around water usage, which we find to be a little bit less well founded than some of other concerns.

然后，当然，还有电价上涨，以及你每个月要交的电费。

And then, of course, electricity inflation and what you're paying for your utility bill.

这更多是区域性的现象，而不是全国性的，但它确实是讨论的一部分，也是我们看到建设这些数据中心面临真正政治约束的部分原因。

That is more a phenomenon on a regional level rather than national, but it's certainly part of the discussion and part of the reason we're seeing this real political constraint in building out these data centers.

那么，这会在政治上造成多大的约束呢？

Well, so how much of a political political constraint will this be?

因为到目前为止，白宫一直支持这些努力，并说我们必须保持主导优势。

Because so far, the White House has been behind a lot of these efforts and saying we have to maintain a dominant edge.

这会在多大程度上限制那些迄今为止推动建设的政策呢？

How much will it constrain some of those policies that have enabled to build out so far?

你看，我们认为有办法缓解这个问题。

So look, we think there are ways to mitigate it.

我们认为超大规模数据中心运营商和其他公司可以向这些社区提供某些让步，无论是向当地社区参与提供奖金，还是某种大负荷电价，或者是对电网现代化的承诺。

We think there are certain concessions that hyperscalers and other companies can offer these communities, whether that's, you know, bonuses to local community engagement or whether it's some sort of a large load tariff or commitments to grid modernization.

我们认为他们可以提供足够的承诺和实际措施来推动建设，但这也是为什么我们认为这是有条件的。

We think there's enough they can sort of promise and provide to facilitate the build out, but that's importantly why we think it's conditional.

我们认为这不会在全国范围内采取一种统一的一刀切的做法。

We don't think this is going to be a uniform kind of one size fits all approach across the country.

这导致的结果基本上是，有些地区允许数据中心开发，有些地区不允许。

And what that leads to is basically a bifurcation between regions that allow data center development and regions that do not.

左派在国家层面上是不是遇到麻烦了？

Is the left tripping up on the national stage?

你看到那些非常进步的成员了吗？

Are you seeing sort of the highly progressive members?

我注意到了一些。

And I've noted a few.

在过去二十四小时里，我看到有几个人在努力表达那个观点，却被卷入了与地方基层问题无关的重大议题中。

I've seen a few in the last twenty four hours struggle to articulate that view and being sucked into major issues that have nothing to do with local ground issues?

你注意到同样的情况了吗？

Have you noticed the same thing?

我认为你看到的是选民群体中各种担忧的混合体。

I think what you're seeing is an amalgamation of concerns among the voter base.

而且现在看民主党，领导层方面并没有一个明确的领先者。

And right now, if you look at the Democrat party, there's no clear front runner for leadership.

对吧？

Right?

所以即使在2028年大选中，我们也没有一个明显领先其他候选人的明确人选。

So we don't have a clear person that's ahead of the other candidates when it comes to even the twenty twenty eight election.

所以我觉得民主党现在正经历一个非常重要的自我探索阶段。

So I think Democrats are right now going through a really important phase of sort of self discovery.

对吧？

Right?

就是弄清楚哪些政策路线能够引起选民的共鸣。

So figuring out which policy paths are the ones that are gonna resonate with voters.

记住，这次选举是2028年的前奏。

And remember, this is an election that's the pretext to 2028.

所以现在是进行这些辩论和讨论的重要时刻。

So this is the important time to sort of have those debates and those discussions.

我觉得这就是一种尝试，而且一旦特朗普退下来，共和党那边可能也会出现类似的情况。

I think it's experimentation, and we'll probably see it on the Republican side as well once Trump steps back.

阿丽亚娜，很高兴见到你。

Ariana, it's good to see you.

感谢你来到我们节目。

Thanks for being here.

摩根士丹利的阿丽亚娜·萨尔瓦托雷。

Ariana Salvatore there of Morgan Stanley.

请继续关注我们。

Stay with us.

接下来是彭博观察的更多内容。

More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

你有没有想过杰西·科尔是怎么把萨凡纳香蕉队从这样带到那样的？

Have you ever wondered how Jesse Cole took the Savannah bananas from this?

去年我们损失了六百万美元。

We had a $6,000,000 failure last year.

以后还会有更大的失败。

We're gonna have bigger ones as we go.

到这个？

To this?

我们有股东和投资者经常联系我们，但答案总是不。

We've got shareholders, investors that reach out to us regularly, and the answer is always no.

或者为什么艾丽·邓肯会这样评价Netflix的体育转播。

Or why Elle Duncan would say this about a Netflix sports broadcast.

有时候我们会大胆尝试，然后彻底失败。

Sometimes we're gonna take really big swings, and we're gonna freaking whiff.

那么这个节目就是为你准备的。

Then the deal is the show for you.

这是彭博播客，由我亚历克斯·罗德里格斯主持。

It's a Bloomberg podcast hosted by me, Alex Rodriguez.

还有我，杰森·凯利。

And me, Jason Kelly.

我们会采访体育和商业界最知名的人物，包括NBA名人堂成员特雷西·麦克格雷迪，聊聊他最大的失误之一。

We talk to the biggest names in the world of sports and business, including NBA Hall of Famer Tracy McGrady on one of his biggest blunders.

我觉得我创造了一些神奇的东西。

I think I've created something magical.

嗯。

Mhmm.

好吧，我搞砸了。

Well, I struck out.

你还会听到我的一些关于棒球的犀利观点。

And you'll even get some of my baseball hot takes.

有球队老板告诉我，这没关系。

I've had owners tell me, it doesn't matter.

比赛必须得改。

The game has to be fixed.

它已经坏了。

It's broken.

如果非得停摆一整年，我们也认了。

If we have to lock out the whole year, we will.

新一期节目每周四播出。

New episodes air every Thursday.

别错过哦。

Don't miss out.

花旗的安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特今早撰文指出。

Andrew Hollenhorst, the Citi writing this this morning.

我们认为，劳动力市场不存在重新引发工资和物价上涨压力的风险。

We do not see risks that the labor market is retiming and becoming a source of upward pressure on wages and prices.

安德鲁现在加入我们，带来更多分析。

Andrew joins us now for more.

安德鲁，早上好。

Andrew, good morning.

早上好。

Good morning.

当然，ADP的数据会证实这个观点。

Certainly, ADP number would validate that view.

对。

Yeah.

ADP的数据稍微弱一些。

A little bit weaker on the ADP.

这个数字波动很大，但我想说，在劳动力市场数据的背景下，整体上一直波动很大。

It's a pretty volatile number, but I would say in the context of labor market data, that's just in general been very volatile.

所以年初时非农就业数据强劲得多，但六月份的报告较弱。

So we had much stronger payrolls readings at the beginning of the year, had a weaker report in the month of June.

我们认为接下来会看到一些较弱的报告。

We think we're in store for some weaker reports upcoming.

服务业、能源和劳动力。

Good services, energy and labor.

通胀的来源。

The sources of inflation.

过去十二个月里，劳动力其实并不是通胀的主要来源，至少不是主要的。

Labor has not really been a source of inflation over the last twelve months, not a major one anyway.

通胀来自其他地方。

The inflation is coming from other places.

那你凭什么有信心认为通胀会继续回落呢？

Where do you get confidence that that disinflationary path will continue?

这种信心从何而来？

And where does it come from?

你知道吗，我现在比几周前更有信心了，尤其是在六月份的通胀报告出来之后。

You know, I'm a lot more confident now than I was even a few weeks ago after we had the June inflation report.

你看各种核心通胀指标，总是有个问题，就是我们说看哪个指标，这也是上周霍斯特主席在新闻发布会上提到的一点。

You look at these various underlying measures of inflation, and there's always an issue when we say which measure are you looking at, This is part of what came up in the press conference with chair Horst last week.

但当你看看我们现有的各种核心通胀指标，大多数都在告诉我们通胀在放缓，而且离目标并不远。

But when you look at the various measures that we have of underlying inflation, most of them are telling us that inflation is slowing, and it's not that far off of target.

我知道这跟很多人的看法很不一样。

I know that's very different than a lot of people's perceptions of what's going on.

但如果你看实际数据，你可以看趋势均值、中位数，或者核心CPI。

But if you look at the actual data, you can look at a trend mean, you can look at a median, you can look at core CPI.

核心CPI通胀并不是什么高深莫测的通胀指标。

Core CPI inflation is not an esoteric measure of inflation.

这是任何人评估通胀压力时都会看的典型指标之一。

This is one of the typical measures that anybody would look at to try to assess what's going on with inflationary pressure.

核心CPI同比2.6%。

2.6% core CPI year on year.

这离历史正常水平2.3%并不远，而且我们认为未来几个月会看到2.3%这个数字。

That's not far off of what would historically normal be historically normally be 2.3%, and we think we're gonna see that 2.3% number in the next couple months.

为什么

Why do

你认为它会继续下降？

you think it's going to continue going down?

对吧？

Right?

这就涉及到限制性是否足够的问题，以及对一些通胀数据走势的信心。

And this goes to the question of sufficiently restrictive and the faith of the path of some of the inflation reads.

为什么这不仅仅是能源价格和几个其他比较因素导致的单次性通缩呢？

Why isn't it just a one off tied to energy prices and a couple of other just comparative reasons for the disinflation.

对。

Yeah.

总体通胀的变化确实受能源价格影响。

What's happened with headline inflation, that is a function of energy prices.

能源价格之前上涨了。

They came up.

这推高了总体通胀。

That boosted headline.

现在又回落了。

They've come back down.

这又会拉低总体通胀。

That's gonna drag on headline.

不过，如果你看核心指标，六月份的核心CPI和核心PCE读数都非常疲弱。

If you look at the core measure, though, we got a very weak reading for core CPI and core PCE in the month of June.

这种极端的疲弱可能不会重演。

That extreme weakness might not repeat.

但我们在这些读数中看到的，如果你看底层数据，是通胀压力的广泛缺失。

But what we saw in those readings, if you looked at the underlying data, was broad based lack of inflationary pressure.

你在所有通胀类别中都能看到，六月份显著放缓，尤其是住房价格。

You see it across all categories of inflation, a significant slowing in the month of June, in particular, shelter prices.

我觉得你可以去看看房价和租金。

And I think go out and look at house prices, look at rents.

这些进入官方通胀指标时大约滞后一年，甚至一年半，而且它们一直很缓慢。

These enter official measures of inflation with a lag of about a year, maybe a year and a half, and they've been very slow.

所以这些住房价格应该会保持缓慢。

So those shelter prices should stay slow.

这是未来通胀将放缓的一个关键原因。

That's a key reason that we're gonna have slower inflation going forward.

那你如何看待我们看到的短期收益率基本持平，而长期收益率上升的现象呢？

How do you then understand the move that we've seen down at the front end in terms of yields or essentially pinned and the rise in long end of the yields.

看起来市场在传达的信息和你说的大不相同。

It seems like the market is saying something very different to what you're saying.

你怎么解读这个现象？

How do you interpret that?

如果你看市场的话，这又是另一个可能和很多人说的非常不同的点。

So if you look at the market, and this is another thing that, again, very maybe very different than how some people are talking about this.

市场并不担心美国的通胀。

The market is not worried about inflation in The US.

如果我看最能准确评估通胀的市场，那就是通胀挂钩证券市场。

If I look at the market that assesses that most carefully, which is the market for inflation linked securities.

所以如果你看通胀盈亏平衡率，看通胀互换，我们预计未来两年的通胀率大约在2%左右。

So if you look at inflation breakevens, if you look at inflation swaps, we are pricing inflation to be around 2% for the next two years.

我们预计未来十年的通胀率也大约在2%左右。

We're pricing inflation to be around 2% for the next ten years.

所以，那种认为长期收益率上升与美联储信誉缺失以及通胀将持续走高的预期有关的说法，

So this idea that higher longer term yields have something to do with a lack of Fed credibility and an expectation that inflation is going to run persistently higher.

从市场表现来看，根本不是那么回事。

It's just not the case when you look at markets.

长期收益率的上升，其实是实际收益率在上升。

The movement that we've had higher in long term yields is in real yields.

不是通胀部分在上升。

It's not in the inflation component.

而是实际收益率部分在上升。

It's in the real yield component.

那为什么实际收益率会上升呢？

And why are they higher?

这正是你整个上午都在谈的话题，而且显然你睡前还跟孩子聊过，就是美国的债务和赤字问题。

It's what you've been talking about all morning and apparently with your children at bedtime, which is the debt and the deficit in this country.

通胀预期是否仍然锚定，是因为人们仍然相信美联储会加息吗？

Are inflation expectations anchored because people still believe this Fed will hike?