彭博社电视直播：2026年10月15日

获取关于推动科技行业迈向新前沿的人物和公司的重要新闻。

Get essential news on the people and companies pushing the tech sector to new frontiers.

你好。

Hi.

我是艾德·勒德洛。

I'm Ed Ludlow.

欢迎收听《彭博科技》，这是一档每日播客，专注于科技、创新和商业未来。

Join me for Bloomberg Tech, a daily podcast focused exclusively on technology, innovation, and the future of business.

每个工作日，我们为你带来硅谷顶级公司的最新见解，以及与科技界最大决策者的对话。

Every weekday, we bring you the latest insights on Silicon Valley's top companies and conversations with tech's biggest decision makers.

在通勤回家的路上收听《彭博科技》，让你始终领先于新闻动态。

Listen to Bloomberg Tech on your commute home and stay ahead of the news cycle.

今天就在苹果播客、Spotify或任何你收听的地方订阅吧。

Subscribe today on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

这里是

This

彭博观察播客。

is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

我是乔纳森·费罗，还有丽莎·阿布拉莫维茨和安妮·玛丽·霍顿。

I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowitz and Anne Marie Hordurn.

每天加入我们，获取市场、经济和地缘政治领域的最佳见解。

Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics.

我们在纽约市全球总部，工作日早上东部时间六点到九点，在彭博电视上直播。

From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to 9AM eastern.

请在Apple、Spotify或任何你收听的地方订阅播客。

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

当然，也可以在彭博终端和彭博商业应用上订阅。

And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

今天开场，科技股再度引发担忧，拖累股市下跌。

We begin this out with renewed tech jitters dragging stocks lower.

T. Rowe Price的Sebastien Page。

Sebastien Page of T.

他在传统估值分析中指出，市场正处于泡沫之中。

Rowe Price writing traditional valuation says the market is in a bubble.

我不同意这个观点。

I disagree.

现在Seb加入我们，带来更多分析。

Seb joins us now for more.

Seb，欢迎来到节目。

Seb, welcome to the program.

我们得先从Core Weave说起，还有信贷市场的一些紧张情况。

Gotta start with Core Weave and a bit of distress in the credit market.

这个名字传递出的信号是什么？

What's the signal coming from that name?

嗯，AI交易肯定会有波动，因为它的杠杆比之前更高了。

Well, there is going to be volatility in the AI trade because it is more levered than it was.

但从根本上说，我对未来六到十二个月的这个交易持乐观态度。

But fundamentally, I am optimistic for the next six to twelve months on that trade.

乔纳森，我看的是终端需求。

And Jonathan, I look at end demand.

代币支出同比增长了700%，这是季度数据。

Token spend is up 700% year over year, quarterly token spend.

而且因为代币价格更便宜了，需求增长了18倍。

And token demand, because they're getting cheaper, is up 18x.

所以我们在采用和需求加速方面才刚刚起步。

So we're only scratching the surface in terms of adoption and accelerating demand.

需求正在加速增长。

The demand is accelerating.

有数据估计，大约20%的企业在其运营中至少有一个智能体流程，20%。

There's data that estimates that about 20% of enterprises have at least one agentic process in their enterprise, 20%.

咨询公司估计这个比例会达到80%。

Consultants are estimating that we'll get to 80%.

所以，我从中得到的信号是：有波动，有更多杠杆，有更多投机，有赢家，也有输家，但根本上，需求仍在推动我们前进。

So my signal from this is there's volatility, there's more leverage, there's more speculation, there's winners, there are losers, but fundamentally, the demand is still pulling us forward on that trade.

你说得对，应用层的需求应该会传导到基础设施建设的需求上。

To your point, that demand at the application layer should flow downstream to demand for the infrastructure build out.

不过，基础设施建设已经提前做了很多，以满足应用层的需求。

The infrastructure build out, though, has done so much ahead of time to meet the demand at the application layer.

当我们看那些新型云公司，像CoreWeave这样的杠杆玩家，如果他们面临资金限制，你确信需求会从其他地方来填补芯片交易的缺口吗？

When we look at the neo cloud firms, the leverage players like CoreWeave, if they face capital constraints, are you confident that demand will come from elsewhere to fill the gap for the chips trade?

约翰，你是指为基础设施建设提供资金的资本供应吗？

John, you mean the supply of capital for financing the build out?

我觉得还是有资金可用的。

I think there's still capital available.

而且你看AI建设里一些比较稳健的公司，比如云服务这边，它们的公司利差其实不高，甚至像微软和Alphabet，比平均水平还低。

And if you look at, you know, some of the more solid companies in the AI buildout, for on the cloud side, for example, you know, their corporate spread is not that high, and it is actually comparable to, in case of Microsoft and Alphabet lower than the average.

我有个疑问。

I got a doubt.

让我插一句，澄清一下。

Let me jump in just to clarify.

那是另一回事。

That's a different bucket.

我这里说的是两类情况。

There's two buckets I'm talking about here.

一方面，有一批需求来自正规的超大规模云服务商，它们有投资级信用，资产负债表很稳健，这是那类需求。

On the one side, you've got a pool of demand and that's legit hyperscaler investment grade, well funded balance sheets, that demand.

很多人可能会说，这很大程度上是受利率驱动的。

A lot of people might say that's largely rate incentive.

他们会继续买。

They're gonna keep on buying.

他们会继续买。

They're gonna keep on buying.

还有另一批需求，规模没那么大。

You've got another pool of demand, not as large.

然后还有那些杠杆玩家，比如Core Weave这类公司。

And then you've got the leverage players, the likes of Core Weave.

我想搞清楚，如果像Core Weave这样的公司面临资金限制，借不到钱了，没法像以前那样扩张，那那些资金充裕的玩家的需求，能不能填补他们万一出问题留下的空缺？

I'm trying to understand if the likes of Core Weave face capital constraints, can't borrow anymore, facing those constraints and can't build out in the same way, is the demand from the well funded players sufficient to fill the gap left by them if indeed they get in trouble?

我觉得可以。

I think so.

我的意思是，有一个大的转变，不是大的转变，而是从前沿模型到开放权重的一个渐进转变。

I mean, you have a big shift, not a big shift, but an incremental shift from the frontier models to open weights.

当你把所有需求加起来，它还在不断增长。

And when you tally all the demand, it keeps growing.

是的，建设已经提前完成，现在我们正在从中获利。

And yes, the build out has happened earlier, and now we're monetizing it.

约翰，我记得我们之前聊过这个，但有一位投资者说过，当大家都在问AI能不能赚钱时，我们没看到盈利。

I remember, John, we talked about this a while back, but one of our investors said when everybody was asking if AI was gonna be monetized or not, we didn't see the monetization.

他把它比作是快克可卡因的阶段。

He compared it to basically the crack cocaine phase.

这大概是一年或一年半以前的事了。

This was maybe a year, a year and a half ago.

他基本上说，大家都在免费使用。

He basically said, everybody's getting it for free.

你先上瘾，然后我们再向你收费。

You get hooked on it, and then we charge you later.

相信我，在企业领域，这只是开始。

And believe me, in enterprises, it's only beginning.

所以，约翰，确实会有脆弱的玩家。

So yes, John, there will be fragile players.

有些公司会陷入困境。

Some of them will get in trouble.

但我从宏观角度来看，我觉得这波行情还能持续六到十二个月。

But I look at it from a top down perspective, and I find the trade could continue for the next six to twelve months.

我只是觉得这太具有变革性了，而且资本市场仍然表现良好。

I just think this is so transformational, and we do have still capital markets that are behaving.

我觉得我就是看终端需求，我就是这么想的。

I think, you know, I just look at the end demand, and that's how I think about

对。

it.

那么，在芯片股连续六天上涨、涨幅超过两位数（目前大约11%）之后，你会买入这些芯片股吗？

So would you be buying the chip players off the back of a six day run, a move of more than double digits, double digits about 11% right now over the last six sessions or so?

这在一周多的时间里算是芯片股的一次回调。

That's a correction in the chip names in a bit more than a week.

你会利用这次回调的机会吗？

Would you lean into that weakness?

是的，有选择性地买。

Yes, selectively.

我们平台上有300位分析师，他们非常有选择性地参与AI交易。

You know, we have 300 analysts on our platform, and they're playing the AI trade very selectively.

他们一个接一个地关注所有瓶颈，比如芯片、内存。

They're looking at all the bottlenecks one after the other, Chips, memory.

所以可能会有……

So there might...

他们可能喜欢的芯片制造商、内存，还有所谓的封装环节，就是把所有东西组装在一起，一直到建设阶段、能源供应，以及围绕这个交易的一切。

The chip chip makers that they might like, memory that they might like, something called packaging where you put it all together, all the way to the construction phase, the energy supply, everything around this trade.

你真的需要主动管理，有选择地挑选时机。

You really need active management and selectively pick your spots.

约翰，我认为在AI交易的这些阶段中，会有赢家和输家。

Winners and losers, I think, in all these phases of the AI trade, John.

台积电的乐观展望，以及Anthropic告诉潜在投资者其第三季度营收接近170亿美元，这些都没有阻止科技股的下跌，你对此感到惊讶吗？

Are you surprised, that TSMC's upbeat outlook, the fact that Anthropic told prospective investors that its third quarter revenue hit close to $17,000,000,000, that that didn't stop what we're seeing in the technology stocks?

这很有意思。

You know, it's interesting.

我们的团队去了台湾，回来后报告说，对基础组件、AI产业链起点的芯片，需求依然很大。

Our team went to Taiwan and came back, and, you know, they reported that there's still a lot of demand for for the basics, the components, the beginning of the chain of the AI trade for the chips.

而且我看Anthropic，安妮·玛丽，这是个很好的例子，因为大约一年前，我们还记得，他们的年化收入大约50亿美元。

And, you know, when I look at Anthropic, it's a great example, Anne Marie, because like a year ago, let's just remember, they had about 5,000,000,000 in annualized revenues.

如果他们现在达到700亿，并且年底前有望达到1000亿，这充分说明了在实施AI上投入的资金规模，以及需求本身有多大。

And if they're at 70 now and talking about 100 by the end of the year, That's just a massive illustration of the money that's being spent to implement AI, of the demand itself.

想想看，从50亿到700亿。

Think about it, 5,000,000,000 to 70,000,000,000.

我觉得耐克和可口可乐的收入大概在400到500亿美元左右。

I think like Nike and Coke's revenues are like in the $4,050,000,000,000 range.

所以他们在一年内就创造了这么多收入。

So they've created that much revenue in one year.

这显示了真正的终端用户需求。

And that shows real end user demand.

而且我们都知道这一点，因为现在我们都是终端用户，尤其是在企业里，但在我们自己的生活中也是如此。

And we all know it because we're all end users nowadays, especially in enterprises, but also in our own lives.

我们看到了这带来的影响，以及模型是如何逐步变得更好的。

We see the impact this is having and how the models are getting incrementally better.

而这个阶段的吸收过程是非常强大的。

And the age intake phase of this is quite powerful.

所以我不想听起来像个超级乐观派，好像拍桌子保证一样。

So, you know, I don't want to sound like an Uber bull, like pounding the table.

它永远不会下跌，所有参与者都会一起成功。

It's never going to go down and all the players are all going to be collectively successful.

在这条产业链的很多地方确实存在过度投资，而且杠杆也比以前高了。

There's definitely overinvestments in many spots of that trade, and there's more leverage than there was.

而且逐渐地，需求的加速可能会稍微放缓一点，你明白吗？

And, you know, incrementally, the demand acceleration might accelerate a bit less, you know?

但总的来说，我认为未来六到十二个月，这是一个健康的行业趋势。

But overall, I'm looking at a what I would describe as a healthy trade for the next six to twelve months.

你是乐观派，不是悲观派。

You're a boomer, not a doomer.

但基本上，这个市场和这波行情在多大程度上依赖于Anthropic在年底前上市？

But how much is basically this market and this trade reliant on anthropic going public before the end of the year?

那是个大风险。

That's a big risk.

从市场情绪的角度来看，这是个很大的风险。

You know, it's a big risk in terms of the sentiment around the trade.

而且，这也会带来波动。

And again, this creates volatility.

这可不是胆小的人能承受的。

This is not for the faint of heart.

确实会有波动，有赢家也有输家，我们希望IPO能顺利进行。

It does create volatility, winners and losers, and we hope the IPO is going to go well.

而且大家的期望值非常高。

And the expectations are very high.

但总的来说，我还是会回到那个点。

But overall, again, I keep going back.

我一直回到最终需求上。

I keep going back to the end demand.

最终需求是存在的。

The end demand is there.

现在，是Anthropic吗？

Now, entropic?

会是OpenAI吗？

Will it be OpenAI?

会是前沿领域的其他玩家吗？

Will it be another player on the frontier?

前沿领域的竞争格局经常在玩家之间变动。

The horse race at the frontier tends to shuffle between the players.

最终产品对流程自动化非常有帮助。

The end product is very helpful for automating processes.

基本上，这是非常具有变革性的。

And basically it's quite transformational.

我觉得我们已经聊了很多，可能也聊够了。

I think we've talked a lot and maybe enough about this.

但话说回来，这绝对是个风向标。

But so, this is the bellwether though, for sure.

而且Claude对很多企业来说确实具有变革性。

And Claude is really transformational for a lot of enterprises.

比如，我们就在用它。

For example, we're using it.

我们在这里宣布了与Entropic的合作。

We announced a partnership with Entropic here at T.

Rowe。

Rowe.

所以总结一下，如果现在是昨天早上八点半，我们讨论的会是债券市场的抛售。

So just to wrap things up, if this was 08:30 yesterday morning, we'd be talking about the bond market selling off.

但今天早上可不是这样。

That's not the story this morning.

收益率全线下跌。

Yields are down across the curve.

我们刚刚看到，在曲线前端，收益率在5个基点范围内波动，此前高于预期的CPI数据将收益率推高至约4.95%。

We've just 20 had five basis point range at the front end of the curve off the back of hotter than expected CPI pushing yields up to about four ninety five.

而到今天早上，收益率已经回落至约4.70%，Seb。

They've come down to about four seventy as of this morning, Seb.

你觉得债券市场发生了什么？

What do you think is happening in the bond market?

你愿意说债券市场已经触底，收益率已经见顶了吗？

And do you think are you willing to call a bond market bottom and a top in yields?

嗯，昨天很有意思，因为你刚才提到了，但十年期国债对通胀数据做出了反应。

Well, yesterday was interesting because you just talked about this, but the ten year reacted to the inflation news.

在通胀高于预期之后，十年期国债收益率迅速上升。

The ten year went up really quickly following the higher than expected inflation.

但后来就变成了对增长的担忧，或者说对AI交易的担忧。

But then it became a growth scare, quote unquote, or just concerns about the AI trade.

然后到收盘前，推动十年期国债收益率变化的因素转向了增长或避险情绪。

And then before the end of the day, what was driving the ten year shifted towards growth or risk off concerns.

这就是利率市场的复杂性，乔纳森。

And that's the thing about rates, Jonathan.

我就说最后一点。

I'll just end on this.

影响利率的因素太多了。

There's so many factors driving rates.

阿加莎·克里斯蒂那本著名的书，很老的一本书，但关键情节是《东方快车谋杀案》，里面有12个嫌疑人，你读完整本书想找出凶手，但结果他们都有罪。

The famous book by Agatha Christie, it's a really old book, but the punchline, A Murder of the Orient Express, is that there's 12 suspects, and you read the entire book trying to figure out who the murderer is, but they're all guilty.

所以你看利率的时候，有通胀、增长、发行量、赤字、国际利率，还有油价。

So when you look at rates, you have inflation, you have growth, you have issuance, you have deficits, You have international rates, but the and oil prices.

但归根结底，这些因素都很重要，对吧？

But the bottom line is these factors, right?

这些因素总体上都是朝着同一个方向，也就是利率上升的趋势。

They all generally as a trend pointing in the same direction of higher rates.

几周前我们已经平掉了大约一半的做空久期仓位，我们还在考虑平掉更多，但还不确定。

We have closed about half our short duration position a few weeks ago, and we're looking at closing more, but we're not sure yet.

请继续收听。

Stay with us.

稍后是更多彭博观察节目。

More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

全球增长正在书写新篇章，其中很大一部分发生在非洲。

A new chapter in global growth is being written, and much of it is happening in Africa.

非洲人需要投资。

Africans need to invest.

有交易可做，有生意可赢。

There are deals to be done and business to be won.

我是詹妮弗·扎巴萨贾。

I'm Jennifer Zabasaja.

每周在《下一站非洲》播客中，我们追踪影响非洲大陆未来的资本流动和政治变化。

Every week on the Next Africa podcast, we track capital flows and political shifts shaping the continent's future.

非洲的数字化将推动其经济增长。

The digitalization of Africa is gonna power its growth.

在世界上消除像HIV这样的疾病是可能的。

Riding the world of something like HIV is possible.

非洲的人口增长非常巨大。

Population growth is so enormous in Africa.

在Apple、Spotify上收听《下一站非洲》，

Listen to Next Africa on Apple, Spotify,

或者在任何你收听播客的地方。

or wherever you get your podcasts.

对AI债务狂潮的担忧冲击了Core Wave，公司债券的抛售导致股价大幅下跌。

Concerns over the AI debt binge hitting Core Wave, a sell off in the corporate bonds triggering a sharp drop in the stock.

公司CEO称市场反应是非理性的。

The company's CEO calling the market reaction irrational.

贝尔德的泰德·莫顿森写道，超级智能资本支出交易的融资现在正受到审视。

Ted Mortonson of Baird writing the financing of the superintelligence CapEx trade is now under scrutiny.

预计AI债务发行总量将增长至美国美元非金融投资级债券发行量的约25%。

Total AI debt issuance is projected to grow to about 25% of US dollar nonfinancial investment grade bond issuance.

泰德现在加入我们，带来更多信息。

Ted joins us now for more.

泰德，早上好。

Ted, good morning.

早上好。

Good morning.

过去一个月左右，这个节目里反复提到的最危险的一句话，可能就是这种建设对利率不敏感。

Maybe the most dangerous phrase of the last month or so that has been repeatedly mentioned on this program is that this build out is rate insensitive.

我们是不是即将发现，这到底是对利率不敏感，还是对利率敏感？

Are we about to find out just how rate insensitive or rate sensitive this might be?

它确实对利率不敏感。

It's not rate sensitive.

超大规模云服务商想怎么收费都行，因为需求远远超过供给。

The hyperscalers can charge anything they want because demand is way outstripping demand.

所以我觉得他们想怎么展示投资资本回报率都可以。

So I think they can show a return on invest capital anything they want.

他们没问题，超大规模云服务商没问题。

They're fine, the hyperscalers are.

但是背负的债务量很大，我们做了详细的自由现金流分析，我看到客户基本上都转向那些自由现金流强劲的公司。

But the amount of debt put on, we do an extensive list on free cash flow and I'm seeing clients basically go to anything with strong free cash flow.

那些没有自由现金流的公司，比如Oracle、NBIS或者CoreWeave，现在基本上都被市场抛弃了。

The names that don't have free cash flow, like Oracle or NBIS or CoreWeave in this area, is just being thrown out at this point.

当这些高杠杆公司陷入困境时——我们今天早上在信贷市场已经看到这种情况了——公司自己可能对现状有自己的看法，但市场肯定在给这些公司不同的定价。

When those leveraged names get into trouble, and we're seeing them get into trouble in the credit market this morning, the company will have its own opinion on what's happening here, but the market certainly is pricing these companies differently.

你怎么看待这些公司作为芯片股需求来源的角色？过去一周芯片股也有些麻烦。

How do you think about those companies as a source of demand for some of the chip stocks that got in a bit of trouble as well in the last week?

我觉得这有关联，但你知道，你之前提到的观点基本上是在说这个周期有多强劲。

I think it's related, but you know, your previous guess was basically saying how strong the cycle is.

确实很强。

It is strong.

好的。

Okay.

但一路上我们会遇到这些坑。

But we're going to have these potholes along the way.

其中一个就是融资问题。

And one of these is financing.

我的客户们，他们讨厌AMD银行、英伟达银行和博通银行。

My clients, they hate the Bank of AMD, the Bank of Nvidia and the Bank of Broadcom.

他们很讨厌。

They hate it.

他们讨厌特殊目的实体。

They hate special purposes.

他们讨厌什么呢？

What do they hate about it?

他们就是不喜欢那种隐含的担保。

Well they just don't like the implied guarantee.

这是一种软性担保，但他们另一个不喜欢的地方是，这些特殊目的公司把债务从一些公司的资产负债表上挪走，转移到另一个实体上。

It's a soft guarantee but the other thing they don't like is these special purpose vehicles that are pushing debt off the balance sheet of some of these companies and moving it to another entity.

债务需求这么高，股市窗口也得一直开着。

The demand for debt is so high that the equity market window also has to stay open.

但过去三周，这个窗口没开。

And in the last three weeks it hasn't.

我们已经有五个非常受关注的IPO推迟了。

We've we've lost five really high profile IPOs that have postponed.

我觉得要支撑这些债务，两个窗口都得打开。

And I think what has to happen to fund this debt, both windows have to open up.

Anthropic和OpenAI的IPO推迟，这个问题有多严重？

How much has the anthropic IPO and open IPO being pushed back been an issue as well?

这是个问题，但我觉得大家基本都已经消化了这两家公司正在处理的各种安全问题。

It's an issue, but I think everybody has kind of digested all the safety issues that both companies are addressing.

我觉得问题出在前沿模型和开源模型的混合上。

I think where there is a rub is this mix between frontier models and open source models.

这可是个大问题。

This is a big deal.

英伟达领先了三四年。

NVIDIA is three years ahead of it, you know, three, four years.

黄仁勋在基础设施和软件方面领先了三四年。

Jensen's three, four years ahead on infrastructure and software.

他在Nemotron上的动作，和Palantir的合作，还有传闻说Revelation要投资英伟达。

What he's doing with Nemotron, what he's doing with Palantir, There's a rumored investment on Nvidia from Revelation.

这三个人是从谷歌DeepMind出来的。

These are the three guys who popped out of Google DeepMind.

他们有个新的开源模型叫Beam。

They have a new open source model called Beam.

现在有一股开源的趋势，所以token成本在降低。

There is a movement to open source, so lower token costs.

伊桑，应用程序会不会有被商品化的风险？

Ethan, there's a risk that the application becomes commoditized?

这确实是个担忧。

That's a concern.

这是一场归零的竞赛。

It's a race to zero.

这确实是个问题，对吧？

That's a problem, isn't it?

我们拭目以待。

We'll see.

说实话，一切发展得太快了，我觉得没人能确定，但大家都在关注这件事。

Everything's moving so quickly that I don't think anybody knows, to be honest with you, but it's on everybody's radar screen.

如果你是微软或谷歌，看到过去二十四小时这些新兴云公司的动态，你会感到乐观吗？

If you're Microsoft or you're Google and you're looking at what's happening to some of these neo cloud firms in the last twenty four hours, are you feeling good about things?

我高兴得直跳脚。

I'm clicking my heels.

你看看谷歌，他们筹了850亿美元吧？

You know, if you look at Google, they raised what 85,000,000,000?

他们在别人还没反应过来之前就抢先完成了融资。

They got through the window, you know, before anybody got through the window.

他们手里握着大量现金。

They're sitting on a lot of liquidity.

所以他们的状况非常好。

So they're in great shape.

再看看微软，我觉得他们会交出一份非常亮眼的财报。

If you look at Microsoft, think they're going to have a blowout number.

我觉得Copilot是……

I mean, I think Copilot is...

纳德拉在Copilot上做得非常出色，Azure也一路高歌猛进，增速超过40%。

Nadella has done a great job on Copilot and Azure is off to the races, I mean, 40 plus percent.

而且他们的自由现金流多到花不完，我觉得他们根本花不完这些钱。

And their free cash flowing, I don't think they can spend their free cash flow.

通常每个季度，微软能产生大约250亿美元的自由现金流。

Normally on a quarterly basis, Microsoft derives about $25,000,000,000 of free cash flow.

这可不是小数目。

That's a lot.

所以你看谷歌和微软，它们在自由现金流方面真是占尽优势。

So, you know, if you look at Google and you look at Microsoft, they're in a catbird seat on free cash flow.

所以那些给你打电话的人，你说你今天早上进来的时候，昨晚很晚还在打电话。

So the individuals that were calling you, you said you walked in this morning and you were on the phone very late last night.

那些电话不是关于这些公司的。

It wasn't about those companies.

电话那头的人到底在担心什么？

What is the angst on the other side of the phone?

担心的是业绩归因。

The angst is attribution performance.

现在正是一年中比较难熬的时候。

We're in a bad time of the year.

是政治因素吗？

Politics?

不是。

No.

如果你是基金经理，你会努力保护自己的业绩。

Well, if you if you're a PM, you're trying to protect your performance.

大家都被挤进了基础设施这个板块。

Everybody's been jammed into this infrastructure play.

在最高点的时候，半导体涨了87%。

I mean, you know, at the peak, semiconductors were up 87%.

那也就是两三周前的事。

That was only two or three weeks ago.

现在只涨了65%。

Now they're now they're up only only 65%.

你得看五年的走势图，这些基金经理说的归因分析，正在影响他们的年终业绩。

You got to look at a five year chart here, and the attribution that these PMs are saying are seeing, it's hurting their year end performance.

而且你看，他们担心股东，但我觉得他们也担心年终奖金。

And if you look at, they're worried about their shareholders, but I think they're also worried about their year end compensation.

大家都差不多，可以说是树倒猢狲散。

Everybody's kind of, the rats are jumping off the ship so to speak.

那你觉得呢，是追到年底，还是像我这一个月来开玩笑说的那样，T。

So what do you think, chase it into year end or as I've joked a few times in the last month, T.

S。

S.

还有，坐在前面打盹，你知道的，坐在前面。

And Snooze, know, sit at the front of the

收益率曲线。

yield curve.

给安妮·玛丽一个我觉得很贴切的词。

Gave Anne Marie a term that I think is really appropriate.

你不要去接下跌的刀，要等它落地不再旋转。

You don't catch a falling knife until it hits the ground and stops spinning.

这就是关键主题。

That's the key theme.

我觉得你应该关注的一个股票是美光，现在科技行业里资产负债表最好的公司之一，每个季度有330亿美元的自由现金流。

And I think one of the names you should watch is Micron, one of the best balance sheets now in tech, dollars 33,000,000,000 of free cash flow per quarter.

他们正在涨价。

They're raising prices.

它已经跌得很惨了。

It's down and out.

我觉得你得留意股价什么时候企稳，什么时候出现上涨的迹象。

And I think you've got to watch when the stock bases and when you see an uptick.

没人知道那会是什么时候。

Nobody knows when that happens.

我们现在处于下跌趋势的哪个阶段？

Where are we in terms of the trajectory of the falling knife?

大概相当于棒球比赛的第三或第四局吧。

Would say maybe the third or fourth inning of a baseball game.

哎呀。

Yikes.

棒球比赛有多少局？

How many innings are there in a baseball game?

因为

Because of the

球迷？

fans?

九局。

Nine.

好的。

Okay.

为了让大家明白，我澄清一下。

Just to clear that up, you know, just in case people weren't aware.

而且这种情况可能很快发生。

And it could happen very quickly.

会很快发生。

Going to happen very quickly.

所以我们预计从这里会大幅下跌？

So we're expecting a sharp move lower from here?

我只是说，大家都以为这要花几周时间。

I I just say, you know, everybody thinks it's going to take weeks.

我觉得，如果你看看市场和流动性，我们已经从过度乐观的投机和贪婪中走出来了。

I think if if you look at the market and liquidity, we've gone from over exuberant speculation and greed.

现在我们通常会转向担忧。

Now we've we've we usually go to concern.

我们现在正处于恐惧阶段。

We're kind of in the fear phase right now.

如果我们进入恐慌阶段，那会来得非常快。

If we get to the panic phase, it's gonna happen real quick.

会不会有些国家的公司因此破产？

Will some country companies go bust because of

这个吗？

this?

不会。

No.

不会。

No.

这个……

It...

我觉得不会。

I don't think so.

宏观面太强了，强太多了。

The the macro is way, way too strong.

只是……

It's just...

这就是价格发现的过程。

It's price discovery.

请继续收听。

Stay with us.

稍后，更多彭博观察节目即将播出。

More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

今年11月11日，在安塔利亚举行的第31届联合国气候变化大会上，彭博绿金将汇聚政策制定者、商业领袖、投资者和创新者，共同探讨应对气候变化、促进投资和能源转型的切实解决方案。

This November 11 at COP thirty one in Antalya, Bloomberg Green brings together policymakers, business leaders, investors, and innovators to examine practical climate solutions for resilience, investment, and the energy transition.

加入我们，一起探讨那些正在塑造全球经济的政策、技术和投资。

Join the conversation exploring the policies, technologies, and investments shaping the global economy.

彭博绿金，第31届联合国气候变化大会。

Bloomberg Green at COP thirty one.

更多信息，请访问bloomberglive.com/cop30one。

Learn more at bloomberglive.com/cop30one.

bloomberglive.com/cop30one。

Bloomberglive.com/cop30one.

这是今天早间的最新消息。

It's the latest this morning.

彭博社的消息人士告诉我们，特朗普总统的超级智能特别工作组预计今天将召开首次会议。

Sources telling us here at Bloomberg that President Donald Trump's superintelligence task force is expected to hold its inaugural meeting today.

白宫面临越来越大的压力，需要在不到三周的中期选举前对人工智能采取行动。

The White House facing mounting pressure to take action on AI with less than three weeks until the midterms.

太平洋投资管理公司的利比·坎特里尔写了以下内容。

Libby Cantrill of PIMCO writes the following.

人工智能建设面临的最大风险来自各州，而不是华盛顿。

The biggest risk to the AI build out is from The States, not DC.

我们认为，未来在许多地方，人工智能投资将面临更多摩擦。

We believe there will be more friction ahead in AI investment in many places.

利比现在加入我们，带来更多信息。

Libby joins us now for more.

利比，早上好。

Libby, good morning.

早上好。

Good morning.

现在分歧很大。

There's a big spread right now.

普通民众希望有监管。

Main Street wants regulation.

华尔街觉得监管不会来。

Wall Street doesn't think it's coming.

谁会赢？

Who wins?

说实话，这有点像大卫对抗歌利亚的故事。

I mean, this is sort of a David and Goliath story, honestly.

我觉得大卫可能会赢。

And I have to think that David may win.

特别是对数据中心的敌意，你随处可见。

You're just seeing so much antipathy for data centers in particular.

我认为数据中心是所有这些其他担忧的体现，比如负担能力、对大科技的担忧、企业集中度、安全问题。

I think the data centers are sort of a manifestation of all these other concerns, affordability, concerns about big tech, corporate concentration, safety.

可以说，他们是在用脚投票。

And they're they're kind of voting with their feet, so to speak.

所以你在市级、非常基层的地方看到的是，很多选民即使被承诺了各种好处，也没有投票支持或批准这些数据中心。

And so what you're seeing at the the municipal level, the very local level, is that a lot of these voters, even though they are being promised the world, are not sort of voting for or not approving these data centers.

而且我觉得到2027年，这种情况会更多。

And I think you're gonna see even more of that come 2027.

我这么说是因为11月有36场州长竞选。

The reason I say that is because there are 36 governor races that are happening in November.

当然，很多人要么关注国会，要么关注白宫在做什么，但这其实是一个州层面的问题。

Lots folks of are, of course, either they're focused on congress or focused on what the White House is doing, but this is really a state story.

所以你会看到很多州长是打着反对数据中心的旗号竞选的。

And so you're gonna see many governors who have run on this anti data center platform.

顺便说一句，他们很多是共和党人。

And by the way, a lot of them are Republican.

这就是有意思的地方。

I mean, this is the interesting thing.

这其实更多是关于你是现任还是反对现任，而不是党派联盟的问题。

This is this is actually much more to do with if you're an incumbent versus anti incumbent than than actually partisan alliance.

所以很多人当选后，他们必须对此采取行动。

So many of these folks will get elected, they're going to have to do something on this.

他们在政治上能做的最简单的事情就是按下暂停键。

And the easiest thing that that they can do politically is they just push pause.

他们实施全州范围的暂停令，有点像纽约这里发生的情况，以便给时间让热度稍微降下来，让州立法机构提供一个框架。

They impose a statewide moratorium, a little bit like what has happened here in New York, and so to give time for maybe the sort of the fever to cool a little bit for the state legislatures to provide a framework.

但我不认为市场预料到了这一点。

But I don't think the market anticipates this.

你看所有关于AI基础设施建设的假设，都是呈曲棍球杆式增长的。

I mean, you look at all of these assumptions around the AI infrastructure build out, it's hockey sticking.

也许这真的会实现，但我不确定它会在美国实现，考虑到这种政治形势。

And, you know, maybe that does come to fruition, but I'm not sure it's going to come to fruition here in The United States just given this sort of political It's

不仅仅是投票给你的州代表或州长。

not just voting for your state representatives or your governor.

AI实际上已经出现在选票上了。

AI is actually on ballots.

是的。

Yes.

有真正的提案。

There's real measures.

给我们讲讲你在关注什么。

Walk us through what you're looking out for.

好的。

Yes.

所以，如果你让我说的话，这真的很有意思，说实话，在我从事政策工作大约二十五年的时间里，我从未见过一个问题在这么短的时间内从英雄变成零，或者至少从中性变成零。

So I mean, if you let me it's fascinating, honestly, and I don't I don't think any, you know, in my kind of twenty five years of hanging around the policy hoop have I ever seen an issue go from kind of hero to zero in such a a very short period of time or at least neutral, to zero.

人们对这些东西几乎感到厌恶，甚至敌视，比核反应堆还要糟糕。

I mean, people, again, are, have such, you know, sort of disgust almost, such animosity for this, these poll worse than nuclear reactors.

所以，在俄亥俄州，俄亥俄州是震中。

So, you know, in in Ohio, Ohio is ground zero.

所以我会把它看作一个风向标。

So that I would look at sort of a bellwether.

很多实际的公投都在选票上。

Many actual referendum on the ballot.

而且，他们还有一场州长竞选，两位候选人都主张全州暂停。

And, again, they have a governor's race where you have both candidates who are advocating for a statewide moratorium.

我认为全州暂停可能是最有害的，因为……

I think it's a statewide moratorium that's probably the most pernicious just because...

特别是在这些州，比如俄亥俄、佐治亚，有很多规划中的产能，这真的会给它们泼冷水。

Particularly in these states where there is a lot of planned capacity like Ohio, like Georgia, that just can put kind of a chill on this.

所以我们并不是要制造恐慌。

So, again, we're not trying to be doomsday ish.

我们只是……

You know, we're we're...

我们非常……

You know, we we are top