彭博社电视直播：2026年9月10日

如果你

If you

投资或经营一家企业，单方面的观点是不够的。

invest or lead a business, one-sided views aren't enough.

欢迎加入我和我的巴克莱研究团队，一起在Flip Side播客中探讨是什么在推动市场。

Join me, Brad Rogoff, and my team at Barclays Research as we debate what's driving markets on the flip side podcast.

无论你在哪里收听播客，都能找到Flip Side。

Find the flip side wherever you get your podcasts.

嗨。

Hi.

我是Barry Ritholtz，邀请你加入我的商业大师播客。

I'm Barry Ritholtz inviting you to join me for the masters in business podcast.

每周，我们都会带来与那些塑造市场、投资和商业的人士的对话。

Every week, we bring you conversations with the people who shape markets, investing, and business.

我会与CEO、诺贝尔奖得主、市场创新者和传奇投资者交流。

I speak with CEOs, Nobel laureates, market innovators, and legendary investors.

无论你持有股票、债券、房地产、大宗商品，甚至加密货币，这些讨论你都绝对需要听一听。

Whether you own stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, even crypto, these are discussions you absolutely need to hear.

在Apple、Spotify或任何你收听播客的地方订阅《商业大师》播客。

Subscribe to the masters in business podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

这里是彭博观察播客。

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

我是乔纳森·费罗，和我一起的还有丽莎·阿布拉莫维茨和安妮·玛丽·霍登。

I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowitz and Anne Marie Horden.

每天加入我们，获取市场、经济和地缘政治领域最顶尖的见解。

Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics.

我们在纽约市全球总部，东部时间工作日上午六点到九点，在彭博电视上直播。

From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to 9AM eastern.

在Apple、Spotify或任何你收听的地方订阅播客。

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

一如既往，也可以在彭博终端和彭博商业应用上收听。

And as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

你可能看到加拿大皇家银行加入了我们的讨论。

You might read of RBC joining us around the table.

迈克，早上好。

Mike, good morning.

早上好。

Good morning.

看看今天早上的这些价格。

Just look at those prices this morning.

别管数据了，因为数据最终会跟着这个走。

Never mind the data because the data is gonna follow this ultimately.

布伦特原油快到10.06美元了，WTI也到了三位数。

$10.06 almost on Brent, triple digits on WTI.

美联储被逼到什么程度了，下周会怎么应对？

How squeezed, how cornered is this fed into next week?

这对美联储来说是个

This is a

棘手的局面。

tough spot for the Fed.

你知道，我们在谈能源价格。

You know, we're talking about energy prices.

这是头号担忧。

That's the number one concern.

别忘了还有关税在桌上，这增加了压力，已经反映在PPI里了。

Let's not forget we still have tariffs on the table which are adding pressure that's showing up in PPI.

最终，这会从PPI传导到CPI。

And ultimately, this is gonna pass through from PPI into CPI.

就像欧洲央行一样，你们只加息了一次。

Rather like the ECB, you hiked once.

那之后你们会释放什么信号呢？

What do you signal beyond that?

你们还能释放什么信号呢？

What can you signal beyond that?

你知道，我们认为在这种情况下，一次加息是不够的。

You know, one hike we just don't think would be enough in this case.

你知道，如果真想开始抑制通胀压力中的需求侧，那需要的可不仅仅是25个基点的加息。

You know, if you really wanna start to bring down the demand side of the inflationary pressures, it's gonna take more than 25 basis points of hikes.

你知道，我们是这样看的：如果美联储要行动，你得考虑一下现在的劳动力市场，它确实显示出从去年那些保险性降息时的疲软中反弹的迹象。

You know, the way we're looking at it is if the Fed were to go, you have to think about, you know, the labor market right now, which has really shown signs of reversing from that weakness last year when they had those insurance cuts.

所以至少，如果他们认为劳动力市场没问题，而通胀压力还在持续，那他们至少应该重新考虑三次降息。

So at a minimum, they should be putting at least three cuts back in if their belief is the labor market's fine and this inflationary pressure continues.

通常，人们把油价上涨看作是一种滞胀冲击，短期内会推高通胀，但长期来看，由于经济增长受到抑制，通胀可能会下降。

Usually, people take a look at higher oil prices as a stagflationary shock, where in the short term, it raises inflation, but in the long term, it could potentially lower inflation because of the suppression of growth.

然而，我们看到各期限的收益率几乎同步上升。

And yet we're seeing yields across the board rise almost in tandem.

你觉得这合理吗？

Does that make sense to you?

我觉得现在有很多相互交织的因素在起作用。

I think you have a lot of cross currents going on.

当你考虑需求端时，确实有一股顺风来自——我们姑且称之为——政府转移支付和人口老龄化这部分。

And when you think about, the demand side, there there's certainly a tailwind coming from this, you know, we'll call it the government transfer aging of the population segment.

有些东西，尤其是美国这边的人，会持续购买。

There are things that folks, especially here in The US, will continue to buy.

其中很多资金来自社会保障、医疗保险和医疗补助。

And a lot of that comes from Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid.

特别是医疗保险，所有这些项目都是根据通胀进行调整的。

And in particular, you think about Medicare, all of these programs are adjusted for inflation.

社会保障收入也会根据通胀进行调整。

Social Security income is adjusted for inflation.

所以它实际上是抗通胀的。

So it's really inflation protected.

这会造成什么影响呢？

What's that doing?

这会增加财政赤字。

That is adding to the deficit.

所以当你考虑长期债券收益率时，很多压力就来自这里，因为人们意识到这个问题不是那么容易解决的。

And so when you're thinking about the long end of the curve, you know, that's where a lot of this pressure is coming from, the realization that this is not a problem that is easily solved.

你能谈谈你自己对加息必要性的看法是如何演变的吗？包括需要加多少次，以及随着人事变动和数据变化，你的想法是如何快速调整的？

Can you give us a sense of the evolution of your own thinking about whether rate hikes are necessary and how many are necessary and how quickly it's been evolving as the personnel have changed and as the data have changed as well?

你看，

I mean, look.

目前，我们的基本判断是美联储会按兵不动。

Right now, our our base case is that the Fed remains on hold.

其中很大一部分原因是，你看经济，你知道，我刚才提到的那类较年长的人群，其实还有较年轻、收入较低的人群，在这次能源冲击之前就已经感受到压力了。

And a big part of that is when you look at the the economy, you know, I just mentioned that the kind of older cohort, you do have a younger cohort, a lower income cohort that is feeling pain already even before this energy shock.

他们不成比例地承受着通胀冲击。

They're disproportionately feeling the inflation shock.

当你把非房贷个人利息支出占个人可支配收入的比例来看，大约是2.5%。

When you look at nonmortgage personal interest payments as a share of disposable personal income, it's about 2.5%.

过去一两年里，这个数字并没有显著改善，这令人担忧。

That has not seen significant improvement over the last year or two, and that's concerning.

即使加息了，情况也是如此。

That's even with hikes.

所以这告诉我们，有很大一部分消费者依赖信贷。

So what that says to us is you have a very large share of the consumer base that is relying on credit.

如果你用加息这种粗糙的工具，那会再次不成比例地影响到这些人。

And if you start hiking with a blunt tool, that is going to impact those folks, again, disproportionately.

所以存在一种风险，你可能会真正打击到那些已经感受到痛苦的消费者群体的需求。

So there's a risk that you could really crush demand in a consumer base that is already feeling this pain.

与此同时，退休人群的债务负担很轻，在很多方面，他们还能通过加息获得利息收入。

And at the same time, you have this retiree population that has very little exposure to debt, in many ways, could benefit from rate hikes through interest income.

所以，这确实是个很棘手的情况，很难决定到底该支持哪一部分人。

So so it's a really difficult situation to figure out which part of that k you really wanna support.

你觉得到什么程度，你才会改变你的想法？

At what point do you think you would have to change your thinking?

你需要看到什么，才会觉得他们真的会加息？

What what would you need to see and be like, they're gonna go and they're gonna hike?

嗯，明天的数据会是个重要的线索。

Well, tomorrow's gonna be a big clue.

我们会看看CPI的表现，但关键还是能源市场的走势。

You know, we'll see how CPI looks, but a big part is what's going on with energy markets.

你不能忽视能源价格带来的传导效应。

You cannot ignore that pass through from energy.

我们之前谈到过卡车运输和货运的情况。

Know, we were talking about that truck transportation, freight transportation.

这会渗透到商品领域。

That's gonna bleed through into the good space.

如果PPI中的商品价格开始上涨，那就会传导到CPI，我们已经看到了这种情况。

If goods start heating up in PPI, that's gonna get passed through to CPI, and we've seen that.

PPI在贸易服务利润率方面是一个非常好的指标。

PPI is a really good indicator when you look at the the trade services margins.

在过去一年半里，这些利润率大体上都是正的。

They've largely been positive over the last year, year and a half.

这表明仍有空间将更高的价格转嫁给消费者。

That suggests there's still room to pass through higher prices to consumers.

所以如果这反映在CPI和PCE中，是的。

So if this is showing up in CPI, in PCE Yep.

你就会看到商品价格朝着错误的方向发展。

You're going to get goods heading in the wrong direction.

我们认为服务业价格已经回落，但那里不会出现太多的通缩。

We think services, you know, it's come down, but you're not gonna get much deflation there.

从历史上看，你回头看，你就是得不到帮助。

Historically, you look back, you're you're just not gonna get help.

所以你需要商品价格下降。

And so you need goods to move lower.

而这就是问题所在，你无法得到方向正确的变动。

And and that's the problem is you're you're not going to get directionally the right move.

加拿大皇家银行的迈克·里德。

Mike Reid of RBC.

迈克，谢谢你，兄弟。

Mike, thank you, buddy.

请继续收听。

Stay with us.

接下来是更多彭博社的《市场观察》节目。

More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

如果你投资、经营企业或配置资本，单方面的观点是不够的。

If you invest, lead a business, or allocate capital, one-sided views aren't enough.

欢迎收听《另一面》播客，我是巴克莱全球研究主管布拉德·罗戈夫。

Join me, Brad Rogoff, the global head of research at Barclays, on the flip side podcast.

每个月，我都会和全球团队的一位专家分析师正面交锋，就最重要的经济和市场议题展开辩论。

Each month, I go head to head with one of our expert analysts on my global team to debate the economic and market issues that matter most.

从通胀、人工智能到股票和信贷趋势，每场辩论都能帮你看到头条新闻可能忽略的内容。

From inflation and AI to equity and credit trends, each debate helps you see what headlines might miss.

无论你在哪里收听播客，都能找到《另一面》。

Find the flip side wherever you get your podcasts.

深入了解那些正在塑造当今复杂经济的创新者、颠覆者和科技驱动趋势。

Gain insight on the innovators, disruptors, and tech driven trends shaping today's complex economy.

我是卡罗尔·马瑟。

I'm Carol Masser.

我是蒂姆·斯特内维克。

And I'm Tim Stenevek.

用彭博商业周刊每日播客，为你的一天画上句号。

Wrap up your workday with the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast.

我们带你深入探讨那些塑造你世界的重大故事，从人工智能的演变到全球商业重心的转移。

We bring you deeper dives into the stories shaping your world from the evolution of AI to the shifting priorities of global business.

还有硅谷的权势人物和最新的科技趋势。

Plus Silicon Valley power players and the latest tech trends.

白天错过的精彩对话，这里帮你补上。

Catch up on the conversations you miss during the day.

在苹果播客、Spotify或任何你常用的平台上订阅彭博商业周刊每日播客。

Subscribe to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

总统承诺给每位美国成年人发放5000美元红利，但前提是共和党能继续掌控国会。

The president then promising a $5,000 dividend to every US adult, but with a big if if Republicans keep control of Congress.

这笔支出预计将超过一万亿美元，当然还需要国会批准。

The payout expected to top $1,000,000,000,000 and would, of course, require congressional approval.

今天我们请来了PIMCO的利比·坎特里尔，一起参与讨论。

Joining us around the table to discuss Libby Cantrill of PIMCO.

利比，早上好。

Libby, good morning.

早上好。

Good morning.

我现在就能想象PIMCO那边的情况。

I can just imagine things over at PIMCO right now.

如果大家都信这个，你觉得会怎样？

Where would you be if people believed it?

对。

Yeah.

会高很多。

Much higher.

我觉得，回到你之前提到的几点，市场其实在很大程度上没太当回事。

I think that your to your to your early points, I mean, the market is largely fading this.

我觉得关键问题是，为什么是中期选举之后，而不是现在？

I think the big question is why why after the midterms, and why not now?

当然，共和党控制着国会两院。

I mean, of course, Republicans control both chambers of congress.

他们在参议院有更大的多数优势。

They have a bigger majority in the senate.

他们在众议院有三票的多数优势，而且在这个国会里，除了共和党人今年想谈的那个大而美的法案之外，真的很少努力去解决选民对负担能力的担忧，相反他们却在谈论更高的油价和伊朗的冲突。

They have a three vote majority in the house, and there has been really very little effort to address voters concerns on affordability in this congress outside of, of course, the one big beautiful bill, which Republicans wanted to be talking about this year, and instead they were talking about higher gas prices and and the conflict in Iran.

所以我认为底线是，市场正在淡化这件事，这是好事。

So I think the bottom line here is it's good that the market is fading this.

这不会发生的。

This is not going to happen.

我们从未见过关税红利，也永远不会看到特朗普红利。

There we never saw tariff dividends, and we're never not gonna see a Trump dividend either.

对。

Yeah.

我们本来应该

We were supposed to

看到那些2000美元的关税红利支票，那本来应该是在中期选举之前发生的。

see those $2,000 tariff dividend checks, and that would have been before the midterms.

JD·万斯在一次采访中被问到这个问题，采访者说，他这不是在贿赂吗？

JD Vance was asked about this in an interview, and the interviewer was saying, isn't he bribing?

JD·万斯基本上是在说，我们正在创造大量收入，所以你们想让我们继续掌权。

And JD Vance was basically saying, well, we're generating a lot of revenue, so you wanna keep us in power.

每个人都应该从这笔巨大的财富中受益。

Everyone should benefit this from this incredible wealth.

他们是不是开始听起来像他们试图击败的那个政党了？

Are they starting to sound like the party they are trying to defeat?

嗯，你看。

Well, look.

我的意思是，

I mean,

我觉得，关于这一点，有几件事需要拆解一下。

I think, a couple of things to unpack on that.

我的意思是，财政部确实通过关税创造了一些收入，但当然，我们有巨额的预算赤字。

I mean, they're, the the treasury is creating some revenue with tariffs, but, of course, we have a massive budget deficit.

我的意思是，今年我们的预算赤字占GDP的比例将达到6.5%。

I mean, we're gonna be looking at six and a half percent budget deficits as a percentage of GDP this year.

所以没有多余的资金可以支出，尤其是在经济相对较好的时候。

So there is no extra capacity to be spending, especially in a relatively good times.

当然，由于经济双速发展，有些人并没有感受到我们看到的强劲GDP增长。

I mean, there's, of course, with the two speed economy, some people do not feel the the strong GDP that we have seen.

很多人确实没有感受到。

Many people don't actually.

但我觉得底线是，他们没有这个。

But I think the bottom line is there is no they don't have this.

他们没有这个缓冲。

They don't have this cushion.

但是，是的，他们听起来像民主党人吗？

But, yes, is are they sounding like Democrats?

我一直认为，特朗普本可以成为一个超越党派的总统。

I mean, I my argument has been all along that Trump could have been a postpartisan president.

他其实跟民主党有很多共同观点，比如贸易保护主义、保护福利制度，还有对赤字支出持开放态度。

He actually shares many views with the Democrats, protectionism, protecting entitlements, okay with deficit spending.

所以，是的，是的。

So so so yes and yes.

但我觉得对市场来说，最关键的是，不管两党哪边承诺增加支出，我都不会太当真。

But I think that just the bottom line here for the markets is I would fade any sort of promise on either side of the aisle that we're going to see more spending.

就是根本没有足够的财政缓冲来

There's just not simply the fiscal cushion to

支持这么做。

do so.

那他们明年得花多少钱才能让一些协议顺利通过呢？

How much are they going have to spend next year though to get some agreements across the finish line?

嗯，是的，我们刚才正好在聊这个。

Well, yeah, and I do think that we were just talking about this.

你知道，债务上限问题很快就要进入我们的视线了，不幸的是，我们所有人都得认真对待这件事。

That, you know, that the debt ceiling is going to be coming into on the radar, unfortunately, for all of us because we all have to take it very seriously.

当然，没人真的会让我们掉下财政悬崖，你懂的。

Of course, no one is likely to kind of let us go off the, you know, off the the fiscal edge, if you will.

但我觉得实际情况是，如果民主党重新掌控众议院——这仍然是我们最可能的情景——他们就会像共和党一样要求一些让步。

But the I think the the reality is is that if Democrats take back the house, that is still very much our base case, they are going to demand some concessions like Republicans have.

对吧？

Right?

这是少数党唯一能用来施压的筹码。

And this is their the one source of leverage that a minority party has.

而且我认为那会意味着更多的支出。

And I do think that will look like more spending.

所以不一定是什么特朗普红利，但看起来会是更多的非国防可自由支配支出。

So not necessarily, you know, Trump dividends, but it will look like more nondefense discretionary spending.

那只是因为特朗普总统很可能会推动增加国防开支。

That's only because president Trump is likely to push for more defense spending.

我们认为国会可能会在一定程度上批准这些，但民主党会坚持非国防部分也要达到同等水平。

We think the congress probably will approve that to some extent, but Democrats will will insist that that non defense portion is also sort of is at parity.

所以我觉得归根结底，讽刺的是，债务上限可能会导致更多的支出。

So I think bottom line here is ironically, the debt ceiling could lead to more more spending.

你喜欢这样吗，丽莎？

Don't you love this, Lisa?

我挺喜欢的。

I mean, I'm loving this.

这就是为什么我的PPT演示文稿——我今晚要把这个加到给孩子们讲赤字的PPT里。

This is why my PowerPoint presentation I'm gonna add this to my PowerPoint presentation on the deficit for the kids tonight.

说到底，很多人在谈论赤字和这些已经持续一段时间的问题时，都在翻白眼。

Ultimately, a lot of people are rolling their eyes as they talk about the deficit and some of these other issues that have been going on for a while.

看起来民众之间的政治讨论正在迅速转向人工智能。

It seems like the political conversation among the populace is rapidly shifting increasingly toward AI.

我想问你这个问题，因为特朗普总统和参选的共和党人在这个问题上的信息有点混乱。

I want to ask you about that because the message has been a bit more muddled when it comes to that from President Trump and from Republicans who are running.

现在，考虑到关于未来十年内即将到来的死亡的讨论，在人工智能和监管方面，什么才是制胜的信息？

Right now, what is the winning message when it comes to AI and regulation given these discussions about imminent deaths in the next ten years?

对，这确实是个难题，而且昨天那些头条新闻也没让事情变得更容易。

Yeah, I mean, is a this is a hard one and obviously the headlines yesterday don't make it easier.

我觉得你要是问十个选民，他们对AI的理解会有十种不同的答案。

I mean, I think that you ask 10 voters, you get 10 different responses in terms of what they mean by AI.

很多人指的是支撑AI的基础设施。

A lot of folks mean the infrastructure that's powering AI.

很多人指的是数据中心。

A lot of them mean data centers.

还有人呢，他们担心的是隐私和儿童保护问题。

Others mean, you know, they're worried about privacy and child protection.

还有人更担心的是生存威胁，比如AI取代我们的工作，甚至可能威胁到我们的生命。

And others are worried more about the existential threat, you know, them replacing computers replacing our jobs or potentially killing us.

所以我觉得，在信息传达方面，这确实是个复杂的问题。

So I think there's it is a it is a complicated issue in order you know, in terms of messaging.

而且我认为，在很多竞争激烈的选举中，共和党人现在实际上转向了更反AI的立场。

And I think what you've seen in many of these tight races is Republicans actually pivoting now to a more anti AI message.

所以我觉得，这其实是一个非常重要的转折点，就像你之前那位嘉宾说的，这很多是选举言论，我们预计这种情况会消退。

And so that, I think, is actually a pretty significant inflection point to your previous guest who was saying this is a lot of sort of election rhetoric and we sort of expect this to abate.

当然，这也是有可能的。

Certainly that's possible.

但我认为更现实的是，这个问题在选民中获得了这么大的推动力，而且它和当今很多其他问题交织在一起。

I think this is more realistic that this is getting such a tailwind in terms of the electorate, and it's feeding on so many other issues of the day.

它和负担能力问题有关。

It's feeding on affordability issues.

它和对企业集中的担忧有关。

It's feeding on concerns about corporate concentration.

它和不平等有关。

It's feeding on inequality.

所以，我不想说得太夸张，但我觉得这个问题不会消失。

And so this, I don't think I mean, not to sound sort of hyperbolic here, but I don't think this is going away.

我觉得你会看到更多州采取暂停措施，甚至禁止措施。

I think this you're gonna see more states move to moratoriums and move to prohibitions.

那么，这真的触及了中期选举前最大的市场风险的核心问题？

So it goes to really the heart of what is the biggest market risk heading into the midterm elections?

风险是来自债务和赤字方面，还是来自AI监管方面？

Is it coming from the debt and deficit side, or is it coming from the AI regulation side?

以及这可能会如何抑制盈利和抑制一些雄心壮志？

And what could that could do with curtailing earnings and curtailing some of the ambitions there?

我觉得，赤字方面其实没有什么新消息。

I mean, I think there's really no news on the deficit.

这就是为什么贝森特部长的干预显得有点意思。

This is why that's been sort of interesting with secretary Besson's intervention.

所有这些事情，你知道，不管是否完全被市场消化，但我们都知道我们会维持高赤字。

I mean, all of this stuff, it's you know, whether it's priced in completely or not, but this is we we know that we were gonna be running these high deficits.

无论是民主党执政还是共和党执政，我们都会面临这种情况。

We're gonna be running that under a democratic regime or a republic regime.

所以我不确定这真的算是什么新消息。

So I'm not sure that's really new news.

所以我觉得更迫在眉睫的威胁是这种地方上的反弹，而且这是真实存在的。

So I would say the thing that's more of an imminent threat is this this, you know, this local backlash, and it is real.

是的，这在一定程度上是个政治话题，但你确实看到很多地方政府开始撤销许可证，或者开始收回税收优惠等等。

I mean, yes, it is a political talking point to some extent, but you are seeing a lot of local, you know, local municipalities start revoking permits or starting to take back tax incentives and what have you.

所以我觉得这比那些担忧更真实、更紧迫，当然也比……

So I feel like this is a is this is more real and more imminent certainly than the concerns of

接下来要讨论的是劳动力市场。

the next up for this conversation is the labor market.

我们不知道会发生什么，但越接近2028年，你会看到那里受到冲击。

We don't know what's going to happen, but you get closer to '28, you see hits there.

难道不应该更深入地讨论对资本征税而不是对工资征税吗？

Doesn't there have to be a bigger conversation about taxing capital and not payrolls?

对。

Yeah.

而且实际上，我上周在澳大利亚，就像个扫兴的人，因为我在谈AI监管，也在谈你说的那个问题，约翰。

And this is actually I was in Australia last week, sort of the Debbie Downer of messaging because I'm talking about AI regulation, I'm also talking about exactly that, John.

我认为，总有一天华盛顿的人真的需要重新审视我们对资本和收入的态度，当然还有低得多的资本利得税。

I think that there's going to have to be there will be a moment where folks in Washington really have to reevaluate the way that we're looking at capital versus income and, of course, capital gains tax at a much lower rate.

有趣的是，我之前忘了，在罗纳德·里根执政期间，其实有过一些平等。

Interestingly, and I had forgotten this, there had been some parity actually during Ronald Reagan's administration.

当时资本利得税率和普通所得税率差不多是持平的。

We had seen the capital gains rate and the ordinary income tax rates around parity.

我确实认为这会是未来的一个重点。

I do think that there's going to be a real focus on that.

在美国政府需要收入的时候，这能增加收入，也符合当下的形势。

It raises revenue at a time where the US government needs revenue, and it speaks to the moment.

请继续收听。

Stay with us.

接下来是更多彭博观察节目。

More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

你好。

Hi.

我是大卫·韦斯顿。

I'm David Weston.

每周和我一起收听《华尔街周报》播客，了解世界各地的资本主义故事。

Join me every week for the Wall Street week podcast to hear stories of capitalism from around the world.

从地缘政治紧张局势和央行决策，到人工智能、能源和基础设施，我们与那些决策正在塑造全球市场的CEO、经济学家、政策制定者和思想领袖对话，无论他们在哪里。

From geopolitical tensions and central bank decisions to artificial intelligence, energy, and infrastructure, we sit down with the CEOs, economists, policymakers, and thought leaders whose decisions are shaping markets everywhere we find them.

在Apple播客、Spotify或任何你收听的地方订阅《华尔街周报》播客。

Subscribe to the Wall Street week podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

苹果新任CEO推出了备受期待的iPhone Duo以及其他产品升级。

Apple's new CEO introducing the highly anticipated iPhone Duo along with other product upgrades.

Deepwater资产管理公司的蒙斯特写道，随着投资者开始意识到重要性，我预计苹果将在未来一周内跑赢大型科技股。

Munster of Deepwater Asset Management writing, I expect Apple to outperform big tech over the next week significance begins to sink in with investors.

吉恩现在加入我们，带来更多详情。

Gene joins us now for more.

吉恩，欢迎来到节目。

Gene, welcome to the program.

那第一个问题肯定是，这件事的意义在哪里？

Inevitable first question then, what is the significance about this?

大家忽略了什么？

What are people missing?

我觉得大家忽略的是，从早上起床到晚上睡觉，消费者对内容的需求是永无止境的。

I think people are missing that the consumer demand for content from the time you get up in the morning to the time you go to bed is insatiable.

这听起来可能有点奇怪，但事实是，更大的屏幕能让内容体验更丰富。

And that means it sounds like kind of an odd place to start, but the reality is that bigger screens make those content experiences richer.

而且，当我们快进来看，大多数人一想到折叠手机，就会觉得他们不想要。

And most people, as we kind of fast forward, when they think about a foldable phone, they think they don't want one.

没必要。

There's no need.

它只占全球智能手机市场的几个百分点。

It's a couple percent of the global smartphone market.

而我在活动前所做的，我所想的，我们知道会发生什么。

And what I did what I thought going into the event, we knew what was gonna happen.

这得归功于彭博社的马克·古尔曼。

Credit Bloomberg's Mark Gurman.

我是说，他预测事情走向的报道真是精彩绝伦。

I mean, just his coverage in predicting what's gonna happen is spectacular.

所以我们早就知道了，但在我心里，这折叠屏手机大概只能排到第四或第五重要的位置，因为我当时觉得它不会引起太大反响。

So we knew about that, but I had this as probably my fourth or fifth most important topic, the foldable foam, because I just didn't think it was gonna resonate.

但我觉得大家忽略的一点，也是我一开始没注意到的，就是如果你看它的做工和细节，厚度、质感、中间那条折痕，真的很难察觉。

But the piece that I think people are missing and I missed initially was that if you look at the fit and finish of this, the thickness, the quality, the crease that bend in the middle, it's very hard to pick up on.

综合来看，我觉得这款设备最终可能会占到iPhone总收入的10%。

If you put that together, I think this device is actually going to probably account for 10% of overall iPhone revenue.

在发布会之前，我原本以为大概只有5%。

Now going into the event, I thought it was gonna be something like 5%.

所以这相当于占了业务的5%。

And so that kind of accounts for 5% of the business.

所以，约翰，从最根本的角度来说，我觉得大家没意识到的是，尽管价格不菲，但大多数人，或者说很多人，都会想方设法让它为自己所用。

And so, I mean, at the most basic level, John, I think what people miss is that even though this is a big price point, most people, I think, or many people are going to try to find a way to get this to work for them.

再说一次，我觉得它能占到iPhone销量的10%。

Again, I think it can account for 10% of iPhone sales.

所以这对苹果来说是个大新闻。

So this is a big news for Apple.

特别是，距离他们推出一个真正让大家关心的新产品已经过去十年了，上次还是2016年12月的AirPods。

In particular, it's been a decade since they've come out with a new product that was AirPods back in December '16 that people really cared about.

Vision Pro可没做到这一点。

VisionPro didn't do that.

所以这就是为什么我觉得这件事这么重要，不仅从数字上看，从创新角度也是如此。

And so that's why I think that this is such a big deal, not only for the numbers, but also for the innovation side.

Gene，我不敢说自己能预见未来，尤其是在科技方面。

Gene, I don't pretend to have visibility into the future, especially when it comes to technology.

这对我来说是个巨大的盲区。

It's a massive blind spot for me.

我很想听听你的看法，你觉得这会怎么发展？

I'd And love you to provide some insight into how you think this plays out.

我现在把它看作是未来软件转型的载体，以及AI能力的载体，这些能力我现在甚至都无法想象。

I view this now as the vehicle for the potential software shift further down the road and the capabilities of AI that I just can't even imagine at this point.

你觉得这可能会如何补充这家公司未来可能推出的软件升级？

How do you think this might complement the future software upgrades we might see from this company?

所以你提到了他们在昨天发布会上暗示的一点，那就是新形态设备的概念，实际上这款设备比目前最大的Pro Max还要大50%。

So you're picking up on something that they hinted to on the event yesterday, which is this idea that a new form factor, and really what this is, is 50% bigger than the largest current, the Pro Max.

这为应用开发者打开了一个新的画布。

That that opens up kind of a new canvas for app developers.

所以当你拥有这样的设备时，你能做的事情、能开发的应用类型，都会开启新的潜力。

And so what you can do, the types of applications when you have a device like this, just opens up new potential.

为什么这很重要，是因为这些新应用将变得越来越智能化。

Why that matters is that these new applications are going to become increasingly agentic.

这就是个性化AI的整个概念，机器能够理解个人背景，同时也能为你做事。

And that's this whole concept of personalized AI, the ability of the machine to understand personal context, but also do work for you.

这就是为什么Meta昨天上涨了7%，因为他们谈到了这些能真正完成任务的智能体。

That's why Meta was up 7% yesterday as they talked about these agents that actually get things done.

但这款设备很特别，因为它更大，所以你可以围绕它开发新的应用。

But this device is unique because since it is bigger, you're going to be able to build new applications around that.

我觉得把这些都结合起来，再加上苹果在全新Siri上的布局，苹果在个性化AI方面会占据最佳位置，而这一整个主题其实才刚刚开始。

I think when you put all this together, when you put kind of the the the duo in combination with what Apple is doing around their whole new Siri, I think what it positions Apple is be the best positioned company when it comes to personalized AI, a whole theme that really hasn't started.

这意味着长期来看，人们会购买更多苹果设备，也可能为应用支付更多费用。

What that means is people are gonna buy more Apple devices and probably pay more for apps longer term.

吉恩，我们能不能看看这个显示屏，以及约翰·特尼斯在首次新闻发布会上发布重大产品的情况，这究竟是约翰·特尼斯时代的开始，还是蒂姆·库克时代的延续？

How much, Gene, can we take a look at this this display and John Turnis' first news conference where he released a big product as really a John Turnis era versus the continuation of Tim Cook.

嗯，这是蒂姆·库克的产品。

Well, was a Tim Cook product.

我的意思是，这是他们过去十年一直在做的事情。

I mean, is something that they've been working on for the past decade.

但我觉得昨天最突出的地方是，甚至在预录开始之前，他就在史蒂夫·乔布斯剧院里向人们发表了讲话。

But I think what I think stood out mean, the biggest event yesterday related to was even before the prerecord started, he addressed people in Steve Jobs' theater.

他非常出色地强调了他对未来产品的兴奋之情。

And he did just a really good job of emphasizing the exciting excitement that he has around future products.

这通常是苹果常用的说法，就是我们对未来的产品感到非常兴奋。

And that's typically a well traveled line for Apple is we're really excited about future products.

但他在说这番话的同时，其实是在淡化昨天要发布的内容，重点放在未来上。

But he said that in the midst of really downplaying what they were going to announce yesterday, kind of focusing really on that future.

所以在我看来，约翰·特尼斯这次发布会，重点不是可折叠iPhone，而是未来最终会推出的东西。

And so from my perspective, it's John Turnis' less about the foldable iPhone, more about ultimately what's going to come.

回顾一下，得给马克·古尔曼记一功，为了说明他有多厉害，昨天发布的所有东西，他都预测到了。

And go back and credit Mark Gurman here, just to put into perspective how good he is, is that everything that was announced yesterday, he predicted.

但他还预测了约翰明年甚至2028年要发布的产品。

But he's also gone out and predicted what John is going to announce next year and even in 2028.

我觉得你会看到的是一个系列，更多一系列由AI驱动的设备。

And I think what you're going to see is a family, more family of AI powered devices.

这种设备一直在听的概念。

This concept of devices that are listening all the time.

昨天我们稍微预览了一些这些功能。

We got a little bit of a preview of some of those features yesterday.

这对人类如何看待他们与世界的互动以及这些设备如何捕捉音频来说，是个大事。

This is a big deal in terms of how humanity thinks about how they interact with the world and how these devices capture audio.

我觉得这也是特努斯接下来会大力推动的一个重要主题。

That's another big theme that I think Ternus is going to be aggressively going after.

吉恩，苹果现在最大的竞争对手是谁？

Gene, who's the biggest competitor for Apple right now?

是像三星、谷歌和Pixel这样的公司，还是像亚马逊和Meta这样也想进入这个领域的公司？

Is it the likes of Samsung and Google and the Pixel, or is it the likes of Amazon and and Meta who are trying to break into this space too?

从数据上看，是三星。

I mean, mathematically, it's it's Samsung.

看全球市场份额，iPhone只占20%多一点，而三星占了大约60%。

If you look at the global market share, the iPhone's just over 20%, and Samsung has about 60%.

所以从数据上看，确实是三星。

So mathematically, it is Samsung.

但有趣的是，当你思考这个问题时，会发现独特之处。

But when you think about this is the unique part.

这就是为什么苹果的股价能保持这么高的溢价，而且我觉得还会继续上涨，因为你看他们的产品之间结合得有多紧密。

This is why Apple trades at such a premium and will continue, I think, to go higher, is that if you look at their just how tightly their products are together.

是的。

Yes.

三星有跟苹果对标的单个产品，但没有一个能像苹果那样真正地整合在一起。

Samsung has individual products that line up with what Apple does, but none of them really fit together as well as Apple does.

然后再加上他们的服务。

And then you put the services on.

我知道这听起来有点像公司官话，但这就是现实。

And I recognize that sounds like kind of the company talk, but that's the reality of something.

所以换个说法，我觉得苹果在整合这些方面真的是独树一帜。

So I would say in another way, I mean, really Apple kind of stands alone when it comes to kind of fitting all this together.

而且在这个我们越来越把所有设备的输入都整合到一起的世界里，这种紧密整合的理念，我觉得会越来越成为苹果的优势。

And in a world where we're increasingly bringing inputs from all of our devices together, that idea of tightly fitting together, I think, is going to become increasingly an advantage for Apple.

Gene，听你分析这家公司总是很有见地。

Gene, always finding your insight, particularly on this company.

谢谢你，先生。

Thank you, sir.

这位是深水公司的吉恩·芒斯特。

Gene Munster there of Deepwater.

这里是彭博观察播客，为您带来市场、经济和地缘政治领域的最佳内容。

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics.

您可以在工作日早上6点到9点（东部时间）在彭博电视上观看节目直播。

You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 6AM to 9AM eastern.

请在苹果播客、Spotify或您收听节目的任何其他平台订阅本播客。

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

一如既往，也可以在彭博终端和彭博商业应用上获取。

And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

全球增长的新篇章正在书写，而其中很大一部分正在非洲发生。

A new chapter in global growth is being written, and much of it is happening in Africa.

非洲人需要投资。

Africans need to invest.

有交易要做，有生意要赢。

There are deals to be done and business to be won.

我是詹妮弗·扎巴萨贾。

I'm Jennifer Zabasaja.

每周在《下一个非洲》播客中，我们追踪塑造非洲未来的资本流动和政治变化。

Every week on the Next Africa podcast, we track capital flows and political shifts shaping the continent's future.

非洲的数字化将推动其增长。

The digitalization of Africa is gonna power its growth.

彻底摆脱像HIV这样的疾病是可能的。

Riding the world of something like HIV is possible.

非洲的人口增长非常巨大。

Population growth is so enormous in Africa.

在苹果播客、Spotify或任何你收听播客的地方收听《下一个非洲》。

Listen to Next Africa on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.