Z世代的就业特征、“多汁”的债券收益率、美国人放弃保龄球

对吧？

Okay?

所以我们给他们的前300名高管做了价值观桥测试。

So we gave the values bridge test to all their top 300 executives.

为什么？

Why?

因为CEO让我做的。

Because the CEO asked me to.

我们看了他们的价值观。

And we looked at their values.

这个群体有91%的价值观重叠。

There was 91% value overlap with this group.

这太不可思议了。

That's unbelievable.

他们中91%的人价值观完全一样。

91% of them had the exact same values.

他们的核心价值观和他们管理的Z世代员工截然不同。

Their top values were wildly different than the Gen Z people that they were managing.

但有趣的是，他们的前两位价值观里没有Z世代的那些。

But what was fascinating is they didn't have Gen Z's top two...

Z世代最看重的是自主权、话语权、自我决定和自我发展。

Top values agency and voice, self determination, self attrition.

而这些在银行高管们的价值观里只排到第十四和第十五位。

Those were down at number fourteen and fifteen for them.

所以这些价值观在Z世代那里排到了最前面。

So they had risen up to the top.

所以我们看到一群非常成功的银行高管，却在管理价值观完全不同的员工。

So we've got this very successful cohort of banking executives, and they are managing people with radically different values.

这就是导致

This is what's causing the

紧张关系的原因。

the tension.

我们想问问你，你收到过最糟糕的职业建议是什么。

We wanted to ask you about the worst career advice you ever got.

不是最好的，而是最差的。

Not the best, but the worst.

我知道有一件事让你特别抓狂，就是史蒂夫·乔布斯常对大家说的那句话：追随你的热情。

And I know that it's something that drives you absolute bananas is something that Steve Jobs used to tell everyone, which is follow your passion.

先打住。

Hold it on here.

你看。

Look.

我觉得也许你应该，但也许你不应该，因为热情，通常就是你的兴趣，只是其中的一部分。

I think maybe you should, but maybe you shouldn't because passion, which is often really your interest, is just one part.

这就像三条腿的凳子，当你想建立一个可持续的职业生涯时，你的兴趣和热情只是其中一条腿，但你还有一套价值观。

It's sort of a three legged stool when you're gonna try to build a career that's sustainable, and what you're interested in, your passion is one leg of the stool, but you also have a set of values.

每个人都有价值观，而且你还有自己的才能。

Everyone has a set of values, but also you have aptitudes.

比如说，如果你擅长某件事，那就去追随你的热情。

Like, follow your passion if you're good at it.

你知道，如果我只是追随我的热情，我可能早就和碧昂斯同台了。

You know, like, I, you know, I would be up there like with Beyonce if I was just following my passions.

我想表演，但我唱得特别差。

Would like to perform, but I'm terrible.

我是说，特别差。

I mean, terrible at it.

所以，我觉得学生们想要的是一个完美的答案，我也理解为什么人们会给出这样的建议，因为首先，说“追随你的热情”感觉很好，大家都会说，对，我应该追随我的热情。

So, I mean, I think that what students want is like this wonderful answer, and I understand why people give this advice because if you're technically, first of all, it feels very good to say, Just follow your passion, and everybody goes, Yeah, I should just follow my passion.

我还想说，有时候人们并不知道自己的热情是什么。

I would also say another piece of it is sometimes people don't know what their passions are.

我是说，我们这一代人里，有些人会非常严肃地说，有时候我想当兽医。

Mean, there's, we've got kind of a generational cohort who will say with dead seriousness, some days I want to, you know, be a veterinarian

我经常听到这种话。

That's what I hear.

差不多吧

All but

到了下午，我又想开一家人工智能的科技公司。

the at the afternoon I want to start a tech company based on AI.

问题是，你得在这两者之间做选择，我恐怕是这样。

And it's like, you gotta choose between those, I'm afraid.

苏西，我要把你之前在纽约大学的说法和这个联系起来。

Suzy, I'm gonna dovetail this all together with your claim at NYU.

你有个岳父，他……

You had a father-in-law who...

他的声音……

His voice...

你当波士顿和缅因铁路的列车员时，会有那种声音。

You have a voice when you're a Boston And Maine railroad conductor.

所以杰克·韦尔奇的父亲，很久以前就是火车上的列车员。

So Jack Welch's father was a conductor on a train a million years ago.

那种传承跟嗓音没关系。

That heritage wasn't about a voice.

跟你学到的那些精彩的东西也没关系。

It wasn't about all the stuff you've brilliantly studied.

那从杰克·韦尔奇身上，你学到了什么关于熬过投资生涯、退休这些事的经验？

Here, what did you learn from Jack Welch about grinding through the investment day Well retirement and all that?

我，我确实

I I have

要说，我经常思考杰克的价值观。

to say, I've often thought about what Jack's values.

如果我们有价值观的桥梁，真想知道他的价值观是什么，但杰克确实相信要享受工作。

If we'd had the values bridge, would have loved to know what his values were, but Jack actually believed in enjoying your work.

我的意思是……

I mean...

我不想让人们放弃他们觉得享受的事情，但杰克相信努力工作。

And I don't want people to take out what they find to be an enjoyable thing, but Jack believed in hard work.

我的意思是，他是那种非常有干劲的人，想要……

I mean, he was one of these people who was, like, very driven to...

你知道，他……

You know, he...

我们组织……

We organized...

我们提前结束了蜜月，因为太想念工作了。

We left our honeymoon early because we missed work so much.

我的意思是，那……

I mean, that's...

那正是我们共同的性格特点。

That was that was our shared personality type.

所以我觉得他相信工作，而“有趣的工作”这个词大概会让他抓狂，就像我的学生说他们要找一份“有趣的工作”时让我抓狂一样，那其实是为了好玩而不是真正的工作。

And so I think that he believed in work, and the term fun employment probably would have driven him just about as crazy as it drives me when my students say they're gonna have some fun employment, which is purposely not work to have fun.

我就会说，但工作本身就是有趣的。

And I'm like, but work is fun.

所以我觉得他会有一些想法。

So I think that he would have some thoughts.

所以他的天赋就是工作。

So his aptitude was work.

努力工作。

Hard work.

他的价值观就是工作。

His value was work.

他确实有以工作为中心的价值观。

He truly had the value of work centrism.

他的天赋多到数不清。

His aptitudes were too many to list.

好的。

Alright.

苏西，非常感谢你加入我们。

Suzy, thank you so much for joining us.

苏西·韦尔奇，我们刚刚开始，这里是纽约大学斯特恩商学院，她写了很多书，但在职业管理和决策制定方面，她确实是思想领袖，涵盖所有相关内容。

Suzy Welch, we're just getting started here with NYU Stern School of Business, author of many books, but really thought leadership here when it comes to career management and also decision making and everything that entails.

接下来，我们将与阿波罗首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克进行对话。

Up, we've got conversation with Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo.

当然，我们会重点关注个人理财、退休和财富管理。

Of course, we're gonna focus on personal finance, retirement, and wealth management.

这里是彭博财经。

This is Bloomberg Money.

好的。

Okay.

你需要告诉我

You would need to tell me

关于这件事。

about this.

好的。

Okay.

所以，学习。

So Study.

所以我们有一套方法论，我有自己的风格。

So so we have a methodology I have fashion.

这是我在纽约大学教授的一套方法论。

It's a methodology that I teach at I teach at NYU.

日本经济正在进入一个新时代。

Japan's economy is entering a new era.

随着通胀回归、货币政策转变以及企业改革加速，其影响远不止于东京。

As inflation returns, monetary policy shifts, and corporate reform accelerates, the implications extend far beyond Tokyo.

欢迎参加12月2日至3日举办的彭博投资东京大会，探讨这些变化对全球投资组合的意义。

Join us at Bloomberg Invest Tokyo, December second and third, to explore what these shifts mean for portfolios worldwide.

感谢我们的主办合作伙伴Fin City Tokyo、知识赞助商Marsh以及参与赞助商日本交易所集团JPX。

Thank you to our host partner, Fin City Tokyo, knowledge sponsor Marsh, and participating sponsor, Japan Exchange Group, JPX.

更多信息请访问bloomberglive.com/invest-tokyo。

Learn more at Bloomberg live dot com slash invest hyphen Tokyo.

我们现在请托尔斯滕·斯洛克来聊聊。

Let's bring in Torsten Slok right now.

他是阿波罗的首席经济学家。

He's chief economist at Apollo.

托尔斯滕·斯洛克和我们在一起，我们非常高兴他能来，他带来了从德意志银行到阿波罗的多元化视角。

Torsten Slok with us and we are thrilled he's with us with an eclectic vision from Deutsche Bank over to Apollo.

托尔斯滕，我得说，我看了这个，就周末关于个人理财、退休和财富管理的话题，我们的经济呈现出前所未有的繁荣，GDP增长强劲。

I've got to say, Torsten, I look at this and the thing that end of the weekend in terms of personal finance, retirement, and wealth management, is we have a top line boom economy GDP like we've never had.

来聊聊这个吧。

Discuss it.

这就像拿破仑战争之后那样。

It's like after Napoleon's war.

也像1947年二战之后那样。

It's after 1947, World War two.

这种名义GDP的繁荣真是非同寻常。

This boom nominal GDP is extraordinary.

因为我们有非常非常强劲的增长顺风，来自人工智能支出的繁荣。

Because we have very very strong tailwinds to growth coming from the AI spending boom.

我们还有来自那个“一个伟大而美丽的法案”的顺风。

We also tailwinds coming from the one big beautiful bill.

我们还有一些顺风来自住房生产的表现。

And we also have some tailwinds coming from the home showing up production.

制造业实际上表现非常好。

The manufacturing sector is actually doing really well.

最值得注意的是，每周的商业形成数据告诉我们，每周新成立的企业数量达到了美国历史最高水平。

And what's most noteworthy is also that the weekly data for business formation is telling you that the number of new businesses that are created every week is at the highest level ever ever in US history.

我们从未有过像现在这样充满活力的经济，因为人们可以用人工智能来创业。

We never had just a dynamic economy as we're having at the moment because people can use AI to start a

新业务。

new business.

托尔斯滕，把话题转到退休计划上，现在每个人都把钱投在四个指数基金里，想靠这个搞定一切。

Torsten, bring this over to the retirement plans where everybody's in four index funds trying to get it done.

如果经济像埃德·亚尔丹尼说的那样蓬勃发展，我们的退休金会有风险吗？

If we have a roaring economy as Ed Yardani talks about, are we at risk with our retirement?

嗯，这次讨论真正重要的，是我们多年来一直在聊的话题。

Well, is what's really important about this discussion is something you and I have talked about for years.

因为现在我们需要大量资金来支持人工智能的发展。

Because now we have a huge capital need for financing AI.

同时，政府也需要大量资金来维持运转。

And in the meantime, we also have a huge capital need also for financing the government.

所以，我们从2010年到2020年的储蓄过剩，那时有来自中国的大量储蓄，还有401k账户的储蓄。

So we went from a savings glut from 2010 to 2020, where there was a significant amount of savings from China, from savers, from people who have a four zero one k.

但现在，可投资的东西太多了。

But today, there are so many things to invest in.

你可以选择投资高收益的政府债券。

You can decide to invest in high government bond rates.

也可以选择投资人工智能。

You can also decide to invest in AI.

需要资金的项目非常多，这就是为什么利率一直在上升，因为相对于疫情前我们多年来积累的储蓄过剩，现在资本短缺。

The number of projects that need capital is very significant, and that's the reason why interest rates keep going up because there's just a shortage of capital relative to the savings glut that we had for many years before the pandemic.

让我回到经济话题，因为尽管数字显示经济很强劲，但对很多人来说，感觉并不是这样。

Let me go back to the economy because as strong as the numbers indicate, it doesn't feel like it for a lot of people.

面向消费者的经济部分感觉和AI、所有资本支出以及AI基础设施建设的火热完全是两回事。

The consumer facing part of the economy feels like it's a completely different story than what's going on in AI and all the CapEx and all the build up of the AI infrastructure.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

这是因为经济被分成了两部分：一边是强劲的AI支出热潮。

And that's because the economy is bifurcated into the very strong AI spending boom.

另一边，则是受利率影响的经济领域，比如房地产和汽车。

And on the other side, you have the interest rate sensitive parts of the economy namely housing and autos.

疫情期间，房贷利率是2.7%。

And housing mortgage rates during the pandemic were at 2.7.

现在房贷利率已经涨到7.2%了。

Now mortgage rates are 7.2.

换句话说，买房已经变得让人负担不起了。

In other words, it's become unaffordable to buy a house.

再加上医疗、教育还有油价带来的生活成本压力，情况就是这样。

And if you add that to affordability issues with health care, with education, oil prices Okay.

这就是为什么消费者信心指数一直表现不佳的原因。

That's why consumer confidence continues to do so

处于良好水平之中。

within good.

在财富管理领域，尤其是基础财富管理方面，我们需要预测未来一年、三年和五年内，我们该如何应对这种畸形的经济繁荣。

Wealth management, within just basic wealth management, project out one year, three years, five years out of how we bring down this odd boom economy.

损害会出现在哪里？

Where will the damage be?

这正是彭博社那些搞钱的人想知道的。

That's what Bloomberg money people wanna know.

没错。

Absolutely.

关键结论是，利率会在更长时间内保持高位，因为通胀也会在更长时间内保持高位。

And the key conclusion is that interest rates are going to stay higher for longer because inflation is higher for longer.

从60/40投资组合的角度来看，这意味着我们现在突然需要更多地考虑固定收益，因为如果你回顾历史，固定收益能带来的收益率其实非常非常可观。

And from a sixty forty portfolio perspective, that means that we now suddenly need to think more about fixed income because the yield you can get in fixed income is actually really really juicy if you go back and look at history.

如果收益率这么可观，那意味着无论是在利率产品还是在高等级信用债中，你都能获得非常高的收益率，这是几十年来都难以见到的。

And if that's juicy, that means that both in rates, but also in high quality credit, you could get some very high levels of yields that you have not been able to get literally for decades.

Scarlet，说“可观”可是CFA四级水平。

Scarlet, juicy is CFA level four.

这是个非常

It's a very

专业的术语。

technical term.

其实你都不用去碰固定收益。

I mean, you don't even have to go into fixed income.

就现在这个存款利率，你把钱放在现金里也能赚得不错。

You could just keep money in cash and do pretty well given where, deposit rates are.

这就是你写过的东西。

And this is something that you have written about.

这个想法是，人们把钱放在现金里，再加上AI的使用，情况就完全不同了，因为AI真的能以金融行业还没准备好的方式改变行为。

This idea that people who keep their money in cash with the use of AI, that becomes a whole different picture here because AI can really change behavior in a way that the industry, the financial industry is not quite prepared for.

因为过去几周我们聊了很多关于Muse的话题，以及Muse会对你所有的订阅、Meta应用、你的个人助理产生什么影响，它突然能在很多方面让你的生活变得更轻松。

Because we've had a lot of conversations in the last few weeks about muse and what will Muse do to all the subscriptions you have, the Meta app, your personal assistant that suddenly can make your life easier in a number of different ways.

当然，你可能会担心，如果它通过把你支票账户里利率只有0.01%的现金转走，让你的生活更轻松。

And one worry, of course, you can have is that if that makes your life easier by swiping out cash that you have in your checking account where interest rates are 0.01.

如果在我走进Whole Foods的时候，它能把这些钱转到另一个账户，突然我的钱就进了我的账户。

If you can swipe that into another account while I walk into Whole Foods, suddenly my money go into my account.

等我走出来，钱又转出去了。

When I walk out, the money goes out.

好吧，聪明人。

Okay, wise guy.

我们不这么干。

We don't do that.

所以，问题在于，这就是为什么我们得弄清楚有多少人会把他们的数据交给Muse，以及正在听的人。

So, well, the question is, this is why we have about to figure out how many people are giving their data to Muse and to the person listening.

你是在开玩笑吧。

You gotta be kidding me.

我记得这是卡拉·斯威舍说的。

I think it's Kara Swisher said it.

你是在开玩笑吧。

You gotta be kidding me.

你打算把你的个人财务数据交给扎克伯格那帮人？

You're gonna give Zuckerberg and that crew your personal financial data?

其实现在已经有多种方式可以把钱从你的支票账户里转进转出。

It's already possible today in many different ways to take your money in and out of your checking account.

但有一些问题。

There's some issues.

有时候需要一天时间。

Sometimes it takes a day.

有时候会快一点。

Sometimes it takes a little bit less time.

但问题是，归根结底，如果你能把钱从支票账户里转出来，你就可以在别的地方开一个支票账户，当然那里的收益率也更高。

But the issue is, at the end of the day, that if you can swipe your money out of the checking account, you can have a checking account elsewhere where of course you also get a higher yield.

所以我觉得这就是我们发展的方向。

So I do think that this is the way we're moving.

这在新闻和AI个人助理方面可能还没实现，但肯定是朝着这个方向发展的，当然区块链技术也让这些事情变得容易得多。

That may not be happening with news and the personal assistance from AI, but it's certainly that way the things are moving also of course with blockchain technology making these things also a lot easier.

我们喜欢提到区块链和彭博财经。

We love to mention blockchain and Bloomberg money.

我觉得我们可以。

I think we can.

当然可以。

For sure.

嗯，AI让比价、比利率和切换账户变得毫无障碍。

Well, AI has made it so that price shopping, rate shopping and switching is now frictionless.

这意味着我觉得会带来更多的波动性。

And that means that I I feel like that's gonna introduce a lot more volatility.

你今天看到的数字可能不会持续太久。

What the number that you see today may not last for very long.

没错，这也是为什么最终的风险在于，如果资金流动得更快，订阅突然取消和重新订阅的速度也更快，那么经济可能会更加不稳定。

Well, that's true, and that's also why, of course, the risk ultimately becomes if money moves around much quicker and if suddenly subscriptions are canceled and and subscribed to much quicker, of course, you could have a more volatile economy.

所以这就是为什么AI再次可能带来颠覆性影响。

So that's why AI once again can be disruptive.

它当然可能在普通消费经济中带来颠覆，但也可能对个人财务产生颠覆性影响。

And it can be disruptive, of course, in the normal consumer economy, but it can also be disruptive, of course, in personal finances.

我得问这个问题，这直接关系到财富管理、退休规划，以及我们在Bloomberg Money上所做的心理层面。

I I gotta ask this, and this comes right over to wealth management, to retirement, to psychology of what we're doing on Bloomberg Money.

你是欧洲大陆的专家。

You are expert on the continent of Europe.

欧洲大陆，美国...

Is the continent of Europe, The United...

嗯，不包括英国，但他们的资本主义会不会变得更像英美模式？

Well, less The United Kingdom, but are they gonna become more Anglo American in their capitalism?

我们都希望他们能承担更多风险，更多依赖股权融资。

We're all praying for them to take more risk, to be more equity based.

你认同这个观点吗？

Do you buy it?

我……

I...

随着时间的推移，这会实现的，因为欧洲人明白这一点。

Over time, this will come because the Europeans understand this.

他们知道需要更多资本来承担风险。

They know that they need more capital to take risk.

如果他们需要增长，就必须发展经济，完善金融市场。

If they need growth, they will absolutely have to grow their economies and have more developed financial markets.

想想看。

Think about it.

如果你和我坐在德国、丹麦或法国，我们有个好主意，那你得去银行说，我能借点钱吗？

If you and I sit in Germany or Denmark or France and we have a good idea, you will need to then go into your bank and say, I borrow some money?

如果银行说不

And if that says no

好的。

Okay.

那你真的

You really

没有别的地方可去了。

have no other places to go.

所以在美国，金融市场发达，你可以去找风险投资、私人信贷、私募股权。

So when financial markets in The US, you can go to venture capital, private credit, private equity.

你可以去另一家银行。

You can go to another bank.

你有不同的地方可以去，进行这样的讨论。

There are different places you can go and have this discussion.

我能借点钱吗？

Can I borrow for

当时那笔交易？

the trade at one point?

因为卡洛斯问的问题更聪明。

Because Carlos got smarter questions.

你知道我买了奥地利一百年期的国债。

You know I bought the Austrian one hundred year paper.

哦，听到这个我很难过。

Oh, I'm sorry to hear that.

之前买的。

Ago.

它们都……

They're all...

我当时就是个追求高收益的人，各位。

I was a yield hog, folks.

跟你说，我这次真的搞砸了，托尔斯滕当时说别买。

Just so you know, I really screwed up on this, and Torsten said don't do it.

我买了那个百年期债券，结果跌了差不多80%。

I bought the hundred year paper, and it's down, like, 80%.

我

I

知道。

know.

或者你在笑话我。

Or you're laughing at me.

不过至少我没加杠杆买。

I mean, at least I didn't buy it leveraged.

那是用现金买的。

That was cash we did that with.

现在债券市场这么波动，你跟我说说退休计划里的收益追逐者吧。

Tell me about yield hog right now given these bond gyrations within our retirement plan.

你买的百年期债券，最关键的是你买的是久期，这说明债券其实也可能风险很大。

What's most important about your hundred year bond is that you bought duration, and that tells you that bonds can actually also be very risky.

我们现在发现，持有美国国债和公开市场信用债的人，对久期也非常敏感。

We're figuring that out that anyone who has public US treasuries and public credit are also very duration sensitive.

所以，当然，目前做空久期是个好主意。

So that's of course why being short of duration is a good idea at the moment.

另外，特别好的做法是提升信用质量，优先留置权，确保有担保，处于资本结构的上层。

And what's particularly also a good idea is to be up in quality, first lien, see it secured, of the capital structure.

但要确保你持有的是短久期债务，不要暴露在那些久期波动中，就像你买百年期债券时不幸遇到的那样。

But make sure that you are in short of duration debt, that you are not exposed to those duration moves that you unfortunately were exposed to when you bought a hundred year bond.

如果你刚开始规划退休，还有几十年要工作，想存钱，那确实应该投股票，但我们一直听到另类投资、私募股权、私募信贷这些。

If you're early on in your retirement planning, you've got decades left to work and you want to put money away, yes, you put it in equities, but we keep hearing about alternatives, private equity, private credit.

在利率上升的时候，这些还是好去处，这让我很困惑，因为私募股权和私募信贷的鼎盛时期是因为利率很低。

The idea that this is still a good place to go when interest rates are rising confuses me because private equity and private credit got their heyday because rates were so low.

现在利率高了，怎么还是好时机呢？

Now that rates are higher, how's this still a good time?

只要你确保投资的是高质量的私募信贷和高质量的私募股权，我的意思是，私募信贷能达到投资级。

As long as you make sure that you're up in high quality private credit, high quality private equity, I mean, you get private credit as investment grade.

这和美国政府债券的投资级一样优质。

That is as good as investment grade from the US government.

也就是说，评级可能不完全一样，但投资级本身就是非常高的质量，这正是关键所在。

Meaning, the rating may not be exactly the same, but investment grade is very high quality, and that exactly is the whole point.

当某样东西达到投资级时，它就有能力支付利率上升时带来的更高债务服务成本。

That when something is investment grade, it's able to pay the higher debt servicing costs that come along when interest rates are higher.

所以，确保你投资的公司——我知道这听起来很简单——投资那些有盈利的公司。

So make sure that you invest in companies, I know it sounds trivial, invest in companies that have earnings.

投资那些真正赚钱、因此有能力支付的公司。对。

Invest in companies that actually make money and therefore able to pay Right.

我们面临的高利率。

The higher interest rates that we're facing at

目前。

the moment.

那我再给你提一个问题。

So I'll get one more here for you.

上一轮2007年的时候，很多资产被评为投资级，但后来发现其实并不是。

Lots of things were rated investment grade in the last go around in 2007, and then it turned out they weren't.

当然，这是事实。

Of course, that's true.

但我的意思是，现在很多资产都被好几家评级机构评为投资级。

But I mean, today, I mean, a lot of things are investment grade rated by several rating agencies.

当然，投资者需要考虑什么样的……

Of course, investors need to think about what type of...

还要考虑投资者面临的各种风险。

And think about the broad spectrum of risk that investors...

你可以投风险投资，那种未来五年可能完全没有盈利的。

You can take venture capital, where you literally have no earnings in the next five years.

那和投资私人信贷是不同类型的风险，私人信贷有盈利，因此有能力偿还高额债务。

That's a different type of risk relative to investing in private credit that has the property of having earnings and therefore the ability to pay the high deficit.

我这儿还有最后一个想法。

That's I got one final idea here.

你了解纽约洋基队吗？

Are you read in on the New York Yankees?

你们的阿波罗公司持有纽约洋基队的少数股权。

Your Apollo took a minority interest in the New York Yankees.

没错。

Absolutely.

你们对坦帕湾有准备吗？

Are you steeled for Tampa Bay

在纽约？

in New York?

是的。

Yes.

已经有了。

Already.

当然。

Absolutely.

我有那顶帽子。

I have the hat.

我会戴上它，然后我要去……

I'm going to wear it, and I'm going...

会很好玩的。

It will be fun.

那算是合规方面的操作。

That was that was compliance.

你看到洋基队打败红袜队了吗？

Did you did you see the Yankees beat the Red Sox?

你有参与其中吗？

Were you part of that?

我个人没有直接参与，但我确实关注了，而且我们对此非常兴奋。

I I was personally not part of that, but I do read it and we're very excited about it.

我们为此感到非常自豪。

We're so proud of this.

好的，托尔斯滕。

Alright, Torsten.

非常感谢你。

Thank you so much.

托尔斯滕·斯洛克是阿波罗公司的首席经济学家。

Torsten Slok is chief economist over at Apollo.

真的很感谢。

Really appreciate it.

谢谢。

Thank you.

接下来在彭博财经节目中，对数百万美国人来说，不断上涨的开支只是他们学生贷款之外的又一个压力点。

Coming up on Bloomberg money for millions of Americans rising expenses are just another pressure point on top of their student loans.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

这些贷款，还款金额越来越大了。

Those loans, the payments are getting bigger.

我们会解释为什么，这里是彭博财经。

We'll explain why this is Bloomberg money.

我们能不能看看阿波罗那边，他好像必须了解保险的情况。

Could we see over to Apollo like he has to know what the insurance.

日本经济正在进入一个新时代。

Japan's economy is entering a new era.

随着通胀回归、货币政策转变以及企业改革加速，其影响远不止于东京。

As inflation returns, monetary policy shifts, and corporate reform accelerates, the implications extend far beyond Tokyo.

欢迎参加12月2日至3日举办的彭博投资东京峰会，探讨这些变化对全球投资组合的意义。

Join us at Bloomberg Invest Tokyo, December second and third, to explore what these shifts mean for portfolios worldwide.

感谢我们的主办合作伙伴Fin City Tokyo、知识赞助商Marsh以及参与赞助商日本交易所集团JPX。

Thank you to our host partner, Fin City Tokyo, knowledge sponsor Marsh, and participating sponsor, Japan Exchange Group, JPX.

更多信息请访问bloomberglive.com/invest-tokyo。

Learn more at bloomberglive.com/invest-tokyo.

彭博财经是你个人理财的新去处。

Bloomberg Money is your new destination for personal finance.

这是一个跨平台的行动，不仅限于电视屏幕，还包括我们在bloomberg.com/money的新数字中心。汤姆，这周有一个故事感觉特别应景，讲的是学生贷款账单飙升和负担能力的问题，因为现在什么都贵。

It's a cross platform effort that extends beyond your television screen, including our new digital hub at bloomberg.com/money and Tom this week, a story that feels extremely relevant right now is about soaring student loan bills and affordability because everything is more expensive.

但现在学生贷款经历了一次重组和改革，让那些背负学生贷款债务的人要还的钱变得更多了。

But now there's been this reorganization, restructuring of overhaul of student loans that's left people with student loan debt paying even bigger.

我很勇敢。

I'm brave.

他选择这么做。

He chose to do this.

我对此感到矛盾。

I'm conflicted

关于这件事。

on this.

让我们请来这篇报道的作者之一，彭博财经记者莎拉·福斯特。

Let's bring in one of the authors of this story, Bloomberg Money reporter Sarah Foster.

那么莎拉，这里发生了什么？

So Sarah, what happened here?

这跟乔·拜登对学生贷款的处理有关，现在特朗普总统也在处理学生贷款问题。

This has to do with Joe Biden and what he did for student loans and now what President Trump is doing when it comes to student loans.

很多美国学生贷款借款人真的被这些不断变化的联邦学生贷款还款计划搞得不知所措。

A lot of Americans student loan borrowers are really kind of caught in the crosshairs of these shifting federal student loan repayment plans.

我们和我的同事利亚姆·诺克斯以及Z世代的玛尔特聊了聊。

We spoke with my colleagues, Liam Knox and Gen Z Marte.

我们大致采访了全国各地的学生贷款借款人，问他们选择了哪种还款计划，账单怎么变化，这对他们的财务状况有什么影响。

We kind of profiled student loan borrowers across the country asking them what payment plans they're picking, how their bills are changing, how it's impacting their finances.

我们采访的很多借款人都告诉我们，他们的还款额，

And many of the borrowers that we spoke with told us that their payments have,

在某些情况下翻了一番。

in some cases doubled.

所以这是因为他们选择了更高的还款额，而不是延长贷款期限，对吧？

So that's because they're choosing bigger payments as opposed to extending their loans for longer, right?

现在有两种新的还款计划，很多要么还款期限更长，要么每月账单更高，这样可以加速还清贷款。

There is two new repayment plan options and a lot of them either come with longer repayment windows or they come with higher bills that can accelerate those repayments.

所以这导致很多背负学生贷款的美国人不得不在还学生贷款和存退休金、存其他长期目标之间做选择。

And so it's resulting in a lot of these Americans who took on student loan debt kind of choosing between paying off their student loan bill or saving for retirement, saving for other long term goals.

而且我们采访的很多借款人都提到，他们不得不牺牲一些东西，比如……

And a lot of the borrowers that we spoke with mentioned to us that, you know, they're kind of having to sacrifice Can

你们对此做过研究吗？

you research on this?

有没有人理解，几十年来人们一直在还学生贷款？

Is there any understanding that for decades people paid their student loans?

我采访了一个借款人，他几乎还了二十年，中间换了好几种还款计划。

I spoke with one borrower who has continued to make payments for almost twenty years and he switched to multiple different repayment plans.

他在读研究生期间，一会儿延期还款，一会儿恢复还款，结果利息比本金还高。

He's gone back and forth on forbearance periods while he's gone to graduate school And it's ultimately resulted in the interest of being even higher than the principal balance that he took out.

现在人们借的金额跟二三十年前、四十年前相比，差别太大了。

The amount that people are borrowing now is vastly different than what they're borrowing twenty, thirty, forty years

以前。

ago.

完全同意。

Totally agree with that.

所以我不确定这是否是一个公平的比较。

So I I don't know that it's a fair comparison.

我同意。

I agree.

我的意思是，

I mean,

目前未偿还的学生贷款规模巨大，相比之下，信用卡贷款或汽车贷款就小多了。

what the outstanding student loan out there is massive compared with credit card loans or auto loans.

稍微谈谈

Talk a little

那里的构成情况。

bit about the makeup there.

我们还看了一下很多家庭债务的构成，情况依然是，你知道，住房债务占了最大的份额。

We also looked at kind of the composition of debt that a lot of households have, and it's still the case that, you know, this housing debt makes up the biggest share.

但当你比较汽车贷款和学生贷款债务时，你知道，它们大致相同，而且自2000年代初以来，我们看到的增长主要是在学生贷款债务方面。

But when you compare auto loans and student loan debt, you know, those are roughly identical, and it's really kind of the increase that we've seen in student loan debt since the early two thousands.

这是一个很大的障碍，

That's big, a major kind of hurdle

因为我在个人理财方面必须处理这个。

for I got to do this on personal finance.

本周早些时候的那个图表让人震惊，而且对大家来说非常重要。

The chart earlier in the week was a shock and it was so important folks.

我们会再给你们看一遍。

We're going give it to you again.

当然，莎拉正在亲身经历这个。

And of course, Sarah's living this.

当我们看三十年期房贷利率时，谁知道周一会在哪里，谁知道一个月后会在哪里呢？

As we look at the thirty year mortgage rate, who knows where it'll be Monday, who knows where it'll be a month from now?

但这个趋势真的非常令人震惊。

But the trajectory is really, really shocking.

长期趋势来看，自由发射，斯嘉丽在2022年扩展到了8000平方英尺，就在底部那里，然后我们从3%一路涨到7%。

The long term trend of the free launch, Scarlet expanded out to 8,000 square feet right in the bottom there in 2022 and up up we go from three to 7%.

莎拉，这对那些甚至不打算申请30年期抵押贷款的人来说也有深远影响。

Sarah, this is a profound impact even for people who aren't looking for a thirty year mortgage.

我回想年初，想到当时和我交谈的许多经济学家所说的话。

I go back to the beginning of the year and I think about what I was hearing from a lot of the economists who I was speaking with.

当时大家希望2026年对我们来说会更好。

And the hope was that 2026 would really be better for us.

你知道，我们甚至短暂看到抵押贷款利率跌破6%。

You know, we even briefly saw mortgage rates top tip below 6%.

对，没错。

But Right.

当时的想法是，美联储会降息，从而降低抵押贷款利率，让那些首次购房者终于能买得起房子。

The idea was that we would see interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and therefore, that would bring down mortgage rates and allow people, especially first time homebuyers, to finally be able to buy that home.

而且这真的很难，因为我觉得原本被认为是上限的7%利率，现在大家都在质疑它是不是变成了新的下限。

And it's been so difficult because I think what was originally thought as the ceiling, that 7% rate is now being questioned as whether it's the new floor.

而且，你知道，只要伊朗的战争还在继续，油价在每桶100美元以上，柴油价格创下历史新高，这个问题就会一直存在。

And, you know, as long as the war in Iran continues, you know, oil prices trading above a $100 a barrel, diesel at record highs, this is going to continue to be a problem.

现在，各位，在彭博财经节目上，我们要毁掉莎拉·福斯特的周末。

And now, folks, on Bloomberg Money, we destroy Sarah Foster's weekend.

我们拿一本书来开始吧。

Let's do it with a book.

这是我秋天读的书，我觉得它对债券来说非常重要，但它是一本非常易读的债券历史书，从威尼斯到阿姆斯特丹，再到伦敦，然后到美国的亚历山大·汉密尔顿。

This is my autumnal read, which I just think is incredibly important on bonds, but it's a highly readable look at the history of bonds from Venice to Amsterdam to London and over to Alexander Hamilton in America.

这是罗宾·威格尔斯沃思写的《胜利》。

This is a Triumph by Robin Wigglesworth.

一笔惊人的债务，我相信这是很久以前英格兰的一句名言。

A fabulous debt, which is a quote, I believe, from England ages ago.

对于那些想了解过去的人来说，这本书的可读性真的让我赞不绝口。

I just can't say enough about the readability of this for people that wanna know from the past.

读起来就像丹尼尔·尤金那本《制高点》和其他经典作品一样。

It reads like Daniel Juergen, the prize, commanding heights, and the others.

这本书有没有把债券市场讲得通俗易懂？

Does it demystify the bond market?

确实讲清楚了。

It does.

而且他特别擅长用英语把那些晦涩的术语解释得明明白白。

And he's beautiful about explaining Tom King babble in English.

罗宾做得非常好，我真是赞不绝口。

Robin does a great job, and I can't say enough about it.

玛丽·蔡尔兹在《彭博周末》上为这本书写了一篇精彩的评论。

Mary Childs wrote a fantastic review of this book for a Bloomberg weekend.

我很好奇，这些内容会不会被改编成网飞之类的电视剧。

I'm curious whether they're gonna turn into some kind of TV series on Netflix or something else.

因为你说到，书里有很多具体的例子。

Because you talk about how there's, like, specific examples.

阿姆斯特丹发生了什么？

What happened in Amsterdam?

亚历山大·汉密尔顿领导财政部时发生了什么？

What happened when Alexander Hamilton was leading the treasury?

确实如此。

It was.

而且，你知道，他还提到了百老汇的那部剧。

And and even, you know, he brings in the play from Broadway.

所以他把一切都讲得很轻松易懂。

And so he brings everything easy.

就像书里的玛丽·蔡尔兹，我可能会指出这一点。

Even as Mary Childs in the book, I might point out.

哦，真的吗？

Oh, really?

艾德·亚德尼很早就出现了，然后是悉尼·昂。

Ed Yardeni shows up early and then Sydney on.

很棒的一本书。

Great book.

而且我很喜欢你这周推荐了格雷琴的书。

And I love you've got Gretchen as your book this week.

抱歉。

Sorry.

你来挑个头。

You tease it.

债务是私募股权行业的核心，而私募股权是过去三四十年里最重要的财富创造者之一。

Debt is at the heart of the PE industry, which is one of the single most significant wealth generators in the past thirty, forty years.

你看看那些拥有所有体育队、推动华尔街的人就知道了。

You just look at who owns all the sports teams and drives Wall Street.

所以我的书是格雷琴·摩根森和约书亚·罗斯纳写的《掠夺者：私募股权如何操控并摧毁美国》。

So my book is Gretchen Morgansson and Joshua Rosner's These Are The Plunderers, How PE Runs and Wrecks America.

所以一点都不含蓄。

So not subtle at all.

他们显然有自己的观点。

They clearly have a point of view.

但这本书讲的是私募股权金融家如何利用债务来资助企业收购，让这些企业背上沉重的债务，同时削减成本，为自己赚取巨额利润，并在此过程中重塑整个经济。

But it's really about how private equity financiers use debt to fund corporate takeovers and load them up with debt while cutting costs and generate big profits for themselves and really remaking the economy in the process.

我们现在已经看到了这种情况。

And we're now seeing it.

我们现在

We're now

我经常听到这样的说法，这也回到了节目早些时候苏西·韦尔奇提到的，不读背景资料是不行的。

What I hear all the time, and and this goes back to Suzy Welch earlier in the program, you can't do this without reading background.

而维格尔斯沃思、摩根和罗杰斯...

And that's what the Wigglesworth and Morgans and Rogers...

罗斯纳的书就是干这个的。

Rosner books do.

他们的背景资料让你对我们在个人理财方面做的事情有更深入的思考。

Their background to make you have a deeper thought about what we're doing in personal finance.

年轻人，莎拉，我相信你也有同感。

Young people, and, Sarah, I'm sure you feel the same.

你也遇到过这种情况，他们说想进入私募股权行业。

You've encountered this as well who say that they want to go into private equity.

这甚至是在他们有过任何银行工作经验之前。

This is before they've ever worked in banking at all.

他们就是想要直接进入私募股权，因为那是积累财富的途径。

They just want the straight line to private equity because that's how you build wealth.

那是赚大钱的方法。

That's how you make a lot of money.

这就是新的投行华尔街。

That's the new investment banking Wall Street.

确实如此。

It's true.

现在确实有一批新的年轻高收入者，我觉得他们意识到光靠工资是积累不了财富的。

It's there's this new rise in young earners who I think have realized that you don't grow your wealth through your salary alone.

你的财富增长其实靠的是资产，尤其是如果你能找到一个用这些来吸引你的工作……

You kinda grow your wealth through assets, and especially if you're able to kinda take a job that wooze you with these...

比如一些股票期权，或者最终能去一家即将上市的公司工作。

Some of these stock options, maybe the ability to eventually work for a company that IPOs.

但他们有时间表吗？

But they have a timeline of what?

一年，两年？

One year, two years?

四年后我会在哪里？

Where am I going to be in four years?

投资的时间安排很困难，也很复杂。

Investing schedule is difficult and it's complicated.

你知道，我们看到市场波动这么大，这绝对是你需要考虑的事情。

Know, as we see, it's so much volatility in the market that it's something you definitely have to consider.

好的。

All right.

莎拉·福斯特，非常感谢你再次来到我们节目。

Sarah Foster, really appreciate your joining us as always.

彭博社记者莎拉·福斯特，她一直负责学生贷款和抵押贷款的报道，为我们带来彭博社最新的评论和建议。

Bloomberg reporter Sarah Foster with all her coverage of student loans as well as mortgages for the latest reviews and recommendations from Bloomberg.

记得订阅《On Books》新闻简报。

Be sure to subscribe to the on books newsletter.

汤姆，你的书，再次提到《优雅的债务》。

Tom, your book once again, the elegant debt.

哦，我喜欢这个。

Oh, I like that.

罗宾，非常感谢你。

Robin, thank you so much.

说得有点乱。

Scar butchering it.

太棒了。

The fabulous

一本精彩的债务书。

A fabulous debt.

一本精彩的债务书。

A fabulous debt.

精彩，好的。

Fabulous Alright.

感觉像夏天一样。

It may feel like summer.

树叶在变色。

The leaves are changing.

汤姆有一本关于汤姆的书。

Tom had an on Tom.

没有书。

No book.

你加满油去看秋叶了吗？

You put gas in the tank to go see fall foliage?

我们来看看这个周末以及接下来几个周末大家都在花钱买什么。

We're gonna take a look at what people are spending their money on this weekend and in the weekends to come.

这里是彭博财经。

This is Bloomberg money.

那是上州公园。

That's Upstate Park.

想想中央公园。

Think Central Park.

中央公园。

Central Park.

彭博财经，我们向你和汤姆·基恩问好，现在他和我们在一起。

The Bloomberg money and we say good afternoon to your and Tom Keene with us now.

丽莎·马特奥，这个周末在彭博有很多话题可以聊。

Lisa Mateo, any number of things to talk about to get to this weekend in Bloomberg this weekend.

但正如我们和托尔斯滕·斯洛克所说，洋基队势头正猛，大胜红袜队。

But as we said with Torsten Slok, Yankees on a roll crushed the Red Sox.

没有人比丽莎·马特奥更高兴了。

No one was more happy than Lisa Mateo.

洋基队表现不错。

The yankee's doing well.

这些年来，丽莎一直穿着那件让人头疼的纽约洋基队周边商品。

I'm so Lisa's been garbed in the dreaded New York yankee's merch here over the years.

还有，哦，谢谢红袜队那些家伙。

And, oh, thank you for the red sox for those guys.

真的，是的。

Really Yes.

是的。

Yes.

很感激。

Appreciate it.

哦，汤姆。

Oh, Tom.

非常抱歉。

I'm so sorry.

我知道你叫他们“可怕的洋基队”，但我们得继续，因为，是的，我确实有一件很棒的洋基队夹克。

I know you call them the dreaded yankees, but we have to go on because, yes, the fabulous jacket that I do have of the yankees.

也谢谢你。

Thank you to.

说实话，这又回来了。

Really speaking returns.

我把节目搞砸了。

I threw off the show.

太过分了。

It was too much.

它把节目搞砸了。

It threw off the show.

这是ALGS的第一场比赛，是的。

There's a there's a first game of the ALGS Yes.

星期六。

On Saturday.

星期六。

On Saturday.

去坦帕。

Go to Tampa.

所以他们横扫了波士顿，然后我们星期六要去坦帕湾。

So after they swept the boss, so so they swept boss, and we're moving on Saturday to Tampa Bay.

然后从星期六到星期一，但星期三他们会把比赛带回家，

And then from Saturday, you go to Monday, but then Wednesday, they bring it back home,

然后

and

那时候你就要开始看票了，因为我丈夫已经在问我，我们能买到票吗？

that's where you start looking up tickets because my husband's already asking me, can we get tickets?

说到个人理财，

Talking about personal finance,

然后你告诉我今天是星期三。

and you're telling me it's Wednesday.

你

You

知道吗？

know?

所以如果你看后面，你知道，洋基队坐的那个位置，对。

So if you look at behind, you know, where the, the where the yankee sit Mhmm.

票价，一张票大概六千美元，值四万。

Dollars, About 6,000 for one ticket is it's worth $40,000.

那是

That's the

起价。

starting.

但如果你一直往后坐到两千三那个区域，通常我们坐那儿，大概在两到三百美元之间。

But then if you go all the way back to $2,300 section, which is usually where we are, it's about between 2 and $300.

所以就是这样。

So there you go.

400块挺合理的。

400 reasonable.

400块左右。

400 range.

你可以花一百多块买到，但每个人都在

You can get them for a 100 and something, but but everyone's

问关于横幅的事。

asking about banner.

洋基队对红袜队。

Yankees feet red sox.

是的。

Yes.

这对你来说还是那么特别。

It's still that special for you.

不是吗？

Isn't

是啊。

it?

我们不如转到秋天真正重要的事情上吧。

Why don't we segue here to what matters in the autumnal globe?

哦。

Oh.

哦，很多人开车出去看秋叶。

Oh, a lot of people driving out and checking out the fall foliage.

我已经开始了。

I've already started.

他们在波科诺斯已经开始了。

They started in the Poconos.

你已经能看到颜色了。

You see the colors already.

我们去过那边。

We've been up there.

再往北走，你也能开始看到秋色了，而且那边有个很棒的活动，带你一路品啤酒，你知道的，就是那种体验。

Way up saying you can start to see it too, and they have this great furry that takes you on this whole beer trekking, you know, thing.

你

You

可以体验整个流程。

can do the whole octopus.

沿着哈德逊河一直往北。

Straight up the Hudson River.

太棒了。

It's amazing.

正好赶上家长们去学校看孩子，对吧？

Just in time for people to visit their kids at school, right?

探访周末往往和这些秋叶时节重合。

Visiting weekends tend to coincide with these fall foliage.

对。

Correct.

对。

Correct.

是的。

Yes.

我知道。

I know.

我刚去看完我女儿回来，所以这

I just came back from visiting my daughter, so it

真是美好的一天。

was a great day.

如果你碰巧坐飞机的话，有可能。

Possibility if you happen to fly.

我不知道是否

I don't know if

你知道吗

you know

关于这个。

about this.

美联航想让你从达美或美航转过来。

United wants you to defect from Delta or American.

这是Wi-Fi的较量。

It's the battle of the Wi Fi.

你得好好想想。

You have to think about it.

如果你要出行，你会选美联航还是达美？

If you're gonna travel, are gonna go United or you're gonna go Delta?

因为美联航有埃隆·马斯克的星链，而达美没有。

Because United has Elon Musk, Starlink, and Delta does not.

他们有亚马逊的莱奥。

They have Amazon Leo.

这就是为什么

And this is why the

机上Wi-Fi服务。

in flight Wi Fi service.

机上Wi-Fi。

In flight Wi Fi.

所以这就是整个来回的较量。

So it's the whole back and forth.

美联航想吸引达美的客户，说，嘿，你知道吗，到10月15号之前，我们接收你，还会保留你的积分。

United is trying to get Delta's customers to say, hey, you know, through October 15, we'll take you on, and we'll keep your loyalty points too.

我是说，我知道我们做的是个人理财，但基本上，因为丽莎今天来了，SpaceX今天股价飙升了。

I mean, I know we do personal finance, but basically, because of Lisa's appearance here, SpaceX has spiked up today.

是的。

Yes.

涨到了

Up to a

到了一百五十七的水平，那就是星链。

one fifty seven level, and that's Starlink.

对，就是星链。

That's Starlink.

没错。

That's right.

是的。

Yes.

在众多业务当中。

Among many, many businesses.

但是，你知道，大家的积分，那就是个人理财的事。

But, you you know, everyone's points, that's personal finance.

你女儿是不是快要去上课了？

Is your daughter about to go to class yet?

她正在尝试。

She is attempting.

是的。

Yes.

她今天有一个大的物理和解剖学考试。

She has big anatomy of physics test today.

所以祝她好运。

So lost to her.

压力很大，但这是好事。

Stressed out, but it's good.

这是好事。

It's good.

非常好。

It's very good.

Lisa McDowell，非常感谢你。

Lisa McDowell, thank you so much.

我确保每个周末的周六和周日早上东部时间7点开始看彭博社的节目。

I make sure to watch Bloomberg this weekend every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at 7AM Eastern time.

今天的《彭博财经》就到这里。

That does it for Bloomberg Money today.

祝你有美好的一天。

Have a great day.

这里是《彭博财经》播客，带你深入洞察影响你财务生活的各种力量。

This is the Bloomberg Money Podcast bringing you a smart look at the forces shaping your financial life.

我是汤姆·基恩，旁边是斯卡莱特·傅。

I'm Tom Keene with Scarlet Fu.

你可以在每周五华尔街时间中午12点，通过彭博电视台观看节目直播。

You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV every Friday at noon Wall Street time.

欢迎在苹果播客、Spotify或任何你常用的平台订阅本播客，当然也可以在彭博终端和彭博商业应用上随时收听。

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

日本经济正进入一个新时代。

Japan's economy is entering a new era.

随着通胀回归、货币政策转向以及企业改革加速，其影响远不止于东京。

As inflation returns, monetary policy shifts, and corporate reform accelerates, the implications extend far beyond Tokyo.